Lib Dems at 18% as ICM reports 5% Tory lead
October 30th, 2007
But the Tories take the hit for the LD surge
After predicting on yesterday’s ComRes thread that the ICM October poll for the Guardian would report a 5% Tory lead I feel a bit of satisfaction that that indeed is what has come about. These are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster tkaen in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (-1): LD 18% (+4)
Also last week I was predicting that the extra media attention from Ming’s departure and the leadership race would give the Lib Dems a 3-4% boost - which has happened too.
ICM has consistently been the pollster which has given the Lib Dems the highest shares and I’m convinced that the 14% of three weeks ago played a part in the leadership changes.
There’s something for everybody here:-
I’m hoping that the detail of the poll might have useful information about the Lib Dem race.
Mike Smithson
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This post from previous thread is so good it needs re-posting:
ICM? What a shock!
I was expecting Con 45 Lab 30 LD not much!
Still we know this will be the highest Lab will poll before the next GE. Given the usual under estimation of the Con vote we are 15% clear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well done, Mike, and I share your satisfaction because I did gently hint that buying LD seats might now be the best value in a quiet market.
Btw, there has been a huge response to my suggestion that we put in a PB team entry for the Tote 10-To-Follow competition. We are up to £750 and rising. More news anon.
Any views on betting implications, Mike?
I notice Spreadfair has moved towards the Tories and against Labour this afternoon/evening - not sure if that was before or after ICM came out.
My post from this mornings thread re ComRes/ ICM comparison.
I’ve been looking at the Comres polls since inception last year and compared them with the nearest (in terms of date)ICM/Guardian. Here are a few bits of trivia (all the standard caveats apply).
- Since April the ComRes poll has been kinder to the
Conservatives (2-9%) than the ICM Poll (before this it was
harsher by up to +9%)
- 41% is the highest that the Conservatives have polled under
Comres (4% higher than any other Comres poll since May)
- The 16% for the Libdems is only 1% above their post May low and
2% above their lowest Comres poll figures.
- Since May the Conservative percentage has been 1-2% higher in
Comres
- Since May the Labour percentage has been 1-3% lower in ComRes
poll.(In one case it was 9% but the two polls preceded the Brown
ascent with the Guardian being published 4 days later the Brown
ascent).
- In general the Libdem figures are lower in the ComRes Poll (up
to 5% since May).
- ComRes Poll in April was closer to reflecting the local election
% votes but was still 4/5% below the actual Conservative vote
(similarly below the Libdem vote but was spot on for Labour).
The latest ICM Guardian poll fits in with the observations made. Interesting to see whether it continues…..
Now some good news for Ave It . I am moving flat tomorrow and will be without internet at home for 2 weeks . I will be able to post when at work from time to time but not back there till Monday .
1 - lol, ave it!
The poll sounds plausible to me. We’re getting quite good at comparing the different institutes, though I’ve still puzzled why Mori (’certain turnout only’) was better for Labour than YouGov (’who cares about turnout’) - just a quirk, I guess. I’d think the immigration stuff will be worth a couple of % for the Tories in the short term as well, though I’m not sure it won’t hurt their longer-term image.
Very good poll for Labour!
Shows they are narrowing the gap with the Tories and confirms that a resurgent LibDem party will hurt the Tories.
5 - good luck!
Hope you are moving into a nice Conservative area. Soon that will be every seat in England!!!!!!!!!
7 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Have commented on the Ashcroft theme on the other thread. A significant point in this story (from the viewpoint of getting legislation through Parliament) is that it puts the Tories on one side and Labour and LibDems on the other.
6 - the cats are voting Con now…..
According to Electoral Calculus, this poll would produce a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party:
CON 287
LAB 297
LIB 37
8 Just up the road still Worthing West
The UK Polling Report swingometer gives a very similar result to Electoral Calculus:
CON 287 seats (+89)
LAB 299 seats (-57)
LIB 36 seats (-26)
OTH 10 seats (-2)
NI 18 seats (nc)
I give up on the polls as they are all over the place. No sooner do I gloomily resign myself to accepting a really rough patch for the LDs, than I am proved wrong.
LDs take Bootle.
re 10. Nick - we’ll have to see the bill, of course, but the thought strikes me that the Lib Dems might be penalised from this. A massive amount of effort, and cash, is going to go into defending the party’s 63 seats and anything that curtails activity in the period before the election could hurt.
The Lib Dems need regular campaigning materials to go out more than the Tories.
So much for boat race politics. Labour sinking, I suspect.
13 - good seat Con maj 15,000 next time
15 - hehe (not like 1990 then…..)
17. Even on this poll, Labour on course to be the biggest party - hardly sinking!
I don’t think they’ve actually finished sinking yet Gabble.
20 Far from sinking, they’ve actually closed the gap on the Tories.
To Nick P (from the other thread):
But Nick my point at 27, which you have not addressed, is that if people want to use their own money to campaign to change their Government there is little you can do about it except restrict their right to free speech, which it seems you just might be stupid enough to contemplate.
What is even more irritating is that you complain about this as the recipient of more taxpayers money to fund your own work as an MP than any MP in history.
You have enjoyed cash allowances for staff and communications your MP forebears could have only dreamed of and that you would have dreaded having to compete with when you were trying to wrestle the seat for yourself.
Why is it that the big individual Labour donors only seem interested in getting their chequebook out at Election time?
Mr Loadsamoney: Lord Ashcroft? Hi, I want to make that donation we discussed to help your target seats campaign and I’m sending you my cheque for £100,000.
Ashcroft: Ah, well, you see that is a problem. We aren’t allowed to spend it you see… new Government limits on party spending.
Mr L: Well I didn’t get where I am today by being told by the nanny state what I can and can’t do with my own money, what can I do?
Ashcroft: Well you could take a half page in each target seat local newspaper explaining why you think they should vote for a new Government, we can help you write the ads if you like….
So the actual forecast from Electoral Calculus is:
Result will be between a Labour majority of 48 and a Tory majority of 24.
(Taking the specified uncertainties into account “It should be assumed that about 50 seats will be mis-predicted at the next election.” - historically these have strongly tended to break towards the Tories, but this is by no means assured)
21 Gabble, they have done no such thing and its foolish IMHO to suggest otherwise, two polls taken in the space of 48 hrs with slightly different results, Opinion cannot possibly move that quickly, its just different methodology between the polling organisations. but if it makes you happy, you just carry on thinking like that.
It may not be very scientific, however, if you average out the last three polls since Friday you get the following according to Electoral Calculus:
Con 40.3 288 seats
Lab 36.3 312 seats
Lib 15.0 22 seats
Labour are short of an overall majority by 14 seats.
Disappointed we haven’t kept the 43% but that was at height of the comeback. There is hope though - in ICM polls since June 2005 Labour’s highest vote share has been 40% (on 3 occasions), even at height of Brown Bounce. Looks very like a country tired of Labour but polls don’t yet show enough of a decided preference for the Tories. This polls 40% is a reasonable score but we need to see a run of 40%+.
Last five ICMs Labour falls from 40% to 39% to 38% to 36% to 35% - a trend I hope continues.
24 - Marcus you hit the nail on the head. Any ban would be riddled with loopholes and would only have the effect of making Brown look partisan. OK it might play well with the Labour Party, but Cameron will be able to highlight to a wider public how the unions bankroll the party. The only way this ham fisted operator has been at the top for so long is simply due to his hanging onto Blair’s coat tails. I’m really shocked at how inept he is and he just keeps on digging.
26 Compared with the last ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph, there has been a reduction in the Tory lead from 7% to 5%!
The quality of debate would be a lot better if Electoral Calculus didn’t exist.
26. I was referring to the change in vote since the last ICM poll.
As shown in Mike’s piece at the top of this thread, the gap has been closed by 2%
27 - if you realise the polls underestimate Con support the result will be Con maj 100!
The rewarding thing for the Libdems, is that raising their profile has improved their position. Once the Libdems have their new leader in place, they should improve further. Which party will they pull from?
34. As this poll shows, the LibDems have reclaimed 1% from Labour and 3% from the Tories.
If they can get back to 20% levels, they will do some real damage to Cameron.
About an hour ago, I laid a full £2 against the Tories on Betfair (most seats) at evens and nobody has touched it.
There seems to be a lot more Tory confidence (bravado?) on this site than over there.
This ICM poll is about what I envisaged, given that it does not take into account the impact of English Votes for English Laws and Labour’s abysmal mismanagement of immigration laid bare in the last 48 hours - as well as David Cameron’s more robust and popular line on the issue.
I would be wary of assuming that the Lib Dems with a new leader will take votes from the Conservatives. With Gordon Brown increasingly seen as more of the same, tired and lacking in “vision”, anti-Tory voters may well wish to go back to supporting the Lib Dems - at least in mid term polls.
15″I give up on the polls as they are all over the place”
No ,they were all over the place during the conference phantom election period.
just sticking with one pollster ICM shows shares very similar to the pre summerperiod which average out OVER 12MONTHS AT 38,32 20.
Rogerh
I hope Labour will be damaged by the shocking revelations on immigration numbers and their complacency/slowness in responding to obvious deficiencies in official statistics. Ministers have apologised. Now some questions about Gordon Brown’s vision: How big will the UK’s population be? How many immigrants? How many will speak English?
38
EC shows
Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 209 38.00% 290
LAB 36.21% 346 32.00% 277
LIB 22.65% 66 20.00% 52
Hung Parliament on those figures
39-”Now some questions about Gordon Brown’s vision”
what vision? =)
To keep things tidy I’ve responded on Ashcroft and the Americanisation of politics on the other thread (to Marcus and Mike Smithson).
just finished reading the ComRes thread two below - talk about catholic. That would have seriously p’ed off the we have to keep on topic brigade!
it does so annoy me having to agree with gabble.
Much as Labour will make the best of this there are a couple of points which I suggest might also be taken into consideration.
1. Labour have fallen to 35% or less in the last 2 polls. These are the first at this level since June.
2. This is the first time that the Conservatives have had 6 consecutive 40% plus polls since July 1992.
So Brown has lost his bounce and in doing so has managed to make the Conservatives more popular than they have been since the post election victory bounce after the 1992 GE.
I think the point is the Labour trend Gabble @ 32. The Tory vote appears not to be trending in any direction at the moment.
But what I really find fascinating is how Brown successfully sold himself as honest and principled and then managed completely to cock the brand in a fortnight. I think the effects of that will be long-lived, and if it does get better for Labour it will be after it all getting quite a lot worse - I think, anyway.
I met a recently-ex-Labour councillor saying nice things about Cameron on Sunday, and still spitting with Gordon for doubling the income tax on the lowest paid. If Cameron suggested repealing that I reckon she’d vote for him. Or actually, probably abstain - but you know what I mean. Gordo’s got a problem, and it seems to be himself.
39
Not just all the misinformation for years about immigration but health care and education all unravelling quickly and instead of trying to clear up the mess,we just get this crap about Britishness and constitutional reforms that nobody cares about.
45- jsfl- for my one post a week I could not write anything better than this.
re 46 Know what you mean. I was contemplating my forthcoming 1.5% pay rise on Thursday and consoling myself with my forthcoming hefty income tax cut - but on my salary I shouldn’t be benefiting as a result of screwing the least well off. Still the Labour MPs cheered Gordon to the skies when he did in March so who are they to start complaining about it now.
48 - for my 1 post every 20 mins, I agree Con have won the election…..
More Poll Trivia:
Month On Month (Poll of Polls)Figures
September:
C 33 L 41 LD 13
October:
C 40 (+7) L 38 (-3) LD 16 (+3)
50-what election?
“Although Conservative support has fallen slightly since the most recent ICM poll, for the Sunday Telegraph almost three weeks ago, which put the party on 43%, the party is still attracting support from former Labour and Liberal Democrat voters in almost equal numbers.
It has also squeezed smaller parties. This month’s poll records no support for the United Kingdom Independence party, perhaps because of Mr Cameron’s emphasis on the need for a referendum on the European reform treaty. Support for all small parties has dropped to 7%, with the Scottish and Welsh nationalists on 4% and the Greens on 2%.”
See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,2201933,00.html
48. I find that surprising Tyson!!!
;o)
36 - quite, I too am inviting Tory backers at evens (and I’m a Tory)
Oy, that Huhne’s nicking my ideas (as posted over the weekend)!
Glad to see it though, teh whole constitutional mess could be sorted with both the WLQ and FPTP anomalies being addressed.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/huhne-english-votes-on-english-laws-but-only-once-pr%e2%80%99s-in-place-1553.html
32 Gabble , I apologise if i misread what you were saying.
Fair play to the Liberals, but I do wonder on what rational people are deciding to jump from Cons > Lib and vice-versa at the moment (if indeed this is the case).
It’s currently like a poltical version of Runaround.
For what it’s worth, I think the Conservatives could now mop up a few more percent from ‘others’, giving them enough support for get a majority.
As often, ICM a bit more insightful than that rest. Lab shouldn’t be that pleased with its score, in my view. BUT will be rightly relieved Tories are no higher than 40. Apart from the odd blip, 40 does seem to be a ceiling for the Tories. And that’s OK for Lab in the medium term.
A further indication then that after the political tsunami for the Tories that was The Blair Years, the tides are receding back towards the 1992 GE numbers - well, they are - and a probable slim Tory majority next time round.
5% from ICM is excellent news for the Conservatives - up on the 3-4% lead that seemed to be the most optimistic prediction earlier today.
And we’ve still got another 2 years of joy from Broon still to come. “Gordon Brown - the gift that keeps on giving”
Re 56: The only solution to the WLQ is a federal UK. That means the Cardiff and Belfast assemblies become Parliaments, the House of Commons becomes the English Parliament, and the House of Lords is converted to a UK-wide elected Senate of the 4 nations. Its about time the PM came from the upper chamber again.
Think the Sun might have turned
“LABOUR’S shabby deceit over immigration exploded spectacularly last night as red-faced ministers queued to apologise for “misleading” the nation.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Evening all
I’m a long-term follower of ICM and merely note that in July 2006, the figures were 39-35-17 so one might argue we’ve been here before though that was of course in the Blair period and it is interesting to see how the “honeymoon” has ended abruptly for Brown and normal service has, as it were, been resumed.
All this poll tells me is that there is all to play for and that having wagered a few pounds on a 2010 election eighteen months ago, I’m still happy with my voucher.
On a related topic, I’ve read DC’s speech on immigration and population in full - it’s a closely-argued and well-argued approach but I think it flawed in some key areas.
I found his argument around social “atomisation” weak. The increase in the number of households has many factors (economic) and I think he plays the pro-family card far too blatantly. I sense a desire for some serious moralising not far below the surface but DC has to accept that whatever he (and some Tories) may believe and wish, the “nuclear” family will never be the only game in town.
There’s nothing mkore guaranteed to turn off 21st Century voters than being told how to live their lives. I don’t think economic policy should be used to favour any family unit over another - the corollary of course is that no family unit should be actively disadvantaged by fiscal or legal policy.
I also fail to see how a party which actively derides plans to build new houses can come up with viable options for home ownership for single twenty and thirty-somethings in the south-east. Is DC really saying that people should only live together (presumably in matrimony) and should live at home until they are in that “acceptable” state ?
By the by, on the whole English/Scottish question, the larger question of how local Government is funded is part of this. Labour has used local Government finance as a political weapon in the last eleven years just as the Conservatives did in the preceeding eighteen. I fear that the Conservatives are about to play politics with public finance and local provision - so much for devolution and local accountability…
Perhaps if the Lib Dems could just find another three or four leaders to get rid of they could go back to their constituencies and prepare for Government?
63.”I fear that the Conservatives are about to play politics with public finance and local provision - so much for devolution and local accountability…”
Stodge, I share that concern.
62
‘Fiddling figures is a Labour trademark. They fiddle public spending estimates, exam results, NHS targets, prison numbers, you name it.
It doesn’t matter how often they get caught. They just can’t stop themselves.’
An excellent synopsis by the Sun of life under New Labour.
Funny how arch Labour cheerleader Roger is scarce all of a sudden. Nothing to do with good results for the Conservatives in the polls, I suppose?
Maybe he is just as fed up with Brown as the rest of us (albeit from a different perspective, of course)
67 - missing the Labour posters on here………….
Rogers said some time ago that he was fed up with Brown, Disraeli (67). I think he is probably fairly representative of former Labour voters.
Where you go wrong, of course, is imagining that the Tores are doing well. This is only by default, and is therefore very fragile.
56 ukpaul. Thanks for the link. Mr Huhne seems to be talking a lot of sense, especially where he says “You cannot reform the UK constitution piecemeal.”
re 62, 66 but the economics is surely up the spout later on
The exchange rate is a boon for shoppers but it is causing grief among exporters here and across Europe.
And we are paying for the weak dollar every time we fill our tanks — at £1 a litre.
Surely at a lower dollar exchange rate we’d be paying considerably more more petrol given that oil is priced in dollars.
Once again it was Chris Grayling who outed this story.
He is beginning to get quite a track record
Speaking as a leftist, the view of consistent Tory poll scores of 40+% is very disheartening. I had become very comfortably accustomed with the Tories being in their box (30-33%) over the last 15 years. I didn’t have any illusions that Brown was a closet socialist, but I did think he had it in him to put the Tories back into their box and keep them there.
How wrong I was.
There’s precious little comfort for Labour in comparing their poll share with the ‘05 GE given that they recorded a record low share for a winning party in that election.
Re: 69 - I suspect you and I are of similar mind to me, Tressage, but, to paraphrase what was being said on here yesterday morning, no one should be complacent.
I suspect the contempt for Labour far outweighs the positive sympathies for the Conservatives but that won’t matter to DC as long as the cross goes in the correct box.
73 Chin up Timothy! As Tressage rightly says at post 69, the Tory performance is “very fragile”. Labour are not in the position of the Major government, i.e. doomed and waiting for the axe to fall. There is still everything to play for.
You must forgive us for our Tory optimism just at the moment. It wasn’t so long ago that it looked as if a Brown Honeymoon bounce might be leading to a certain fourth successive defeat . . .
O/T but having see the BBC news footage of the Saudi state banquet how on earth did King Abdullah manage to restrain himself from ravishing HM wearing that extremely revealing low cut dinner dress rather than an all enveloping shroud?
Still at least GB seems to have learnt some manners at long last.
62, 67 - the Sun’s final sign-off will send a chill through the Brown Bunker:
“Gordon Brown must be thanking his lucky stars he scrapped the election which he had planned for tomorrow.
But with our population forecast to grow by 5 million in nine years, immigration will still be the issue haunting Labour whenever polling day finally rolls round.”
A perfect storm is brewing for Labour. Ave It 09 will have seriously underestimated the scale of that year’s Conservative victory….
I’m here, ave, do I count as a Labour poster, or do you see me more as scrupulously neutral like yourself?
Commented earlier - the poll looks about accurate to me, and I’d think today’s immigration stuff will add a bit to the Tories in the short term. But we’re a long way from most people making up their minds.
77/78 - I’m glad I am now referred to in every post!
The next opinion poll will take in the Labour shambles over immigration.
People will have recoiled from the feeble excuses from Jacqui Smith and caroline Flint.
Go Basher. The flabby nonentity Jacqui is another notch on your gun.
72.Barry, I think that Chris Grayling is in charge of a unit of researchers based at CCHQ who are tasked with the job of uncovering examples of Labour’s failure to deliver.
71 - “Surely at a lower dollar exchange rate we’d be paying considerably more more petrol given that oil is priced in dollars.”
Exactly right. The fall in the dollar from $1.70 to $2.06 to the pound (and even further falls against the euro) has masked much of the rise from $70 to $90 a barrel for oil - for those of us here in Europe. In the US, however, their vast import bill for oil has risen from $70 to $90 a barrel - and that is about a 30% price rise. The US economy is hurting at these prices - especially when you price in a war that was supposed to secure US oil imports at $25 a barrel into the far distance. Oooops…..
Labours actual support will be below that polled. Likewise, Conservative support will be higher.
Whatever gerrymandering stunt Brown would like to pull, Labour are out at the next election. Then, the government can reopen the Cash for Coronets enquiry with an independent QC and restore the death penalty for Treason.
Grayling is proving the most effective Tory front bencher. Shame he looks like IDS>
84
David Davis has got rid of more Labour ministers.
I’ve come up with a brilliant new idea!
There should be a ‘rating’ feature available for posts here, just like on YouTube! Viewers could give postings a ‘+’ or ‘-’.
Anyone who gets net -10 for a posting gets a yellow card, and -50 a red!
PS where is Colin W? (-225)
64. Yeah, The Sun’s really going at the government today (tomorrow)
Love the Tories advertisment as well;
GORDON BROWN: ALL TRICK, NO TREAT!
Class.
86 -
my vote for Ave it = -209 (seats)
88 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA etc
89 - Ave it - that laugh sounds quite menacing. Have we been out trick or treating in a Labour area? Have you been terrorising elderly LD focus deliverers? Tut tut!
Another day, another U-Turn. No Courage, No Convictions, No Vision, Just Gordon.
90 hehehe
It’s TRICK OR TREAT tomorrow - Ruth Kelly out on the street, Susan Kramer looking for votes, Alex Salmond counting up the handouts to Scotland…..
“Ruth Kelly out on the street”
Don’t tell Martin……
91 - Like it. That would have made a better poster slogan than “All Tricks, No Treats”!
The latest U-turn is incredible. Has Labour completely lost the plot?!
91
How many U-Turns is that and he’s only been PM for 4 months?
Labour in total meltdown.
Biggest collapse in any party since 1832…………..
Will con crack the 50% by the end of the year?
Goodnight! But more unbiased insight tomorrow…….
94 I don’t know Bob, I must admit I really laughed Out Loud when I read All Tricks, No Treats, not bad at all.
Of course, had The Clunking One not bottled it, All Trick, No Treat, would have been the Tories eve of election slogan.
Gordon Brown, personal dislike aside, just seems to be a very poor administrator with a cabal of apologist ministers. I can stomach a party I dislike if they know how to govern, but since Blair left things have gone to pot. Does the government actually have a long term legislative plan?
Sky News apologised yesterday after a presenter said the Tory policy on immigration was one of “extermination”, without realising her comment could be heard on air. Julie Etchingham, who will soon leave Sky to join ITV1 News as a co-presenter with Sir Trevor McDonald, made the comment while Mr Cameron was saying: “Let me outline the action that a Conservative government would take … our policy should be obvious …” At which point Ms Etchingham was heard to say: “Extermination.” Sky News said the “regrettable” remark was not intended for broadcast.
Seems even Sky newsreaders don’t like Tories.
99. He has a “vision” for the nation. Its called clinging on to office until the last possible moment. Geberal election, May 7th 2010, here we come!
Is Ave it real? It feels like his / her posts are generated by a sort of hyperTory computer generated comment machine
This government seems to be moving from one calamity to another and needs to get its backside into gear quick sharp. It will be highly vulnerable, rightly or wrongly, on immigration, tax and the EU Treaty. Not to mention Cameron playing the EVoEL card, which is yet to filter through into the polls, and he seems to be pushing all the ‘right’ buttons, as of the moment.
However, in all fairness to the government, it did want devolution for the English Regions. Great things never exactly came of that as we know, which is a shame since had it then I dare say the English might have benefitted like the Scots and the Welsh, seemingly, have from devolution. That would have depended on the priorities of the regional administrations, however.
In 1997, Labour had a golden opportunity to enact a huge swathe of lasting constitutional reform but what happens? It’s done bit by bit in a piecemeal fashion so much so much so that it now resembles a grotesque patchwork quilt of things. Devolution in Scotland and Wales but not in the English Regions; two-tier local government here, unitaries there (though this was inherited) with more unitaries on the way in some places but not others; elected Mayors in a few places here and there; and, as of now, an unelected House of Lords.
I’m that fed up with Labour right now. Working my ass off is increasingly a chore not a joy.
I reckon Tuesday was a significantly bad news day for Labour. Surely an increasing proportion of electors can see that Brown has no vision and now the cupboard is rather bare: Brown has frittered £xBillions on unreformed public services where each £1 taxed has hardly given 20p of service. It’s close to the end of the road. I have a bet on the next election being postponed until 2010. It’s going to be a painful and frustrating wait.
About the U-turn:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/10/31/dl3101.xml
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article2774173.ec
———-
I don’t think it was a bad reception, better than I expected
one correction:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/article2774173.ece
102. I must say the Welsh demand for devolution was 50.1 to 49.9, or was it 49.9 to 50.1? (rumour was that a couple of black boxes got lost). The whole of East Wales is indifferent at best to devolution and certainly can’t be bothered with/ doesn’t want the Welsh language.
I was tempted to suggest that the Libdems should permanently run a leadership contest in light of the ICM figures, the Coffee House Blog seems to suggest the same thing.
I’ll still take Labour over the Conservatives, especially led by David Cameron, who I, personally, dislike more than any other Tory leader in my lifetime but I’m pretty disappointed with Gordon Brown right now. I’ve just got an ill-feeling about Cameron. The only similar feeling I’ve ever experienced was in respect of George W Bush. A man who as President of the USA I’ve never had any confidence in whatsoever as though something was innately lacking.
108.I could say the same about Brown, but then I have had 10 years of him being a leading member of the present Labour government. Cameron is leader of the opposition, why not admit that you don’t like the idea that he might be the Conservative leader which finally puts that party back in power. And as for comparing him to George W Bush, how about waiting until he has been in power, and only if he goes on to make similar mistakes to that of Bush, Blair and Brown!
106. I’m just big on devolution and not too keen on centralised government. I recall the vote in Wales being on knife-edge; though had power been devolved to my Region (the North East) and others, it wouldn’t have made me feel any less English even if I do identify as being primarily British and a stanch supporter of the Union. I just think different regions have different needs and this would be best realised at a devolved level of government.
**** STOP PRESS ****
Conservatives now favourites to “WIN” next General Election with Betfair.
Conservatives shade of odds on to have the most seats, with Labour shade of odds against.
It will be interesting to see how well the voters take to this new policy? “Government to scrap right to buy” in Scotland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7070070.stm
109. I’ve lived and survived under Conservative governments believe it or not and I fully accept that Labour is not going to be in government for ever, I just have deep reservations about David Cameron. It will, of course, take a future Conservative government in operation to see whether or not my opinion of the party has changed for the better.
Ideologically, if anything, I’m probably a left-leaning Christian Democrat and, of the two main parties, Labour is a party in which I feel most comfortable, generally speaking.
112. The government in this case, however, being the SNP.
94. So the government shouldn’t listen and respond, appropriately, to the concerns raised by business groups re-it’s proposed changes to CGT, in your opinion?
Hey guys, sorry I’ve been neglecting you. Nick (6) and SBS (15), I told you, watch the share, not the lead. There is no statistically significant difference between the YouGov (Tory 3) and MORI (Labour 1) whatsoever, other than in the stupid ‘lead/gap’ figures. The shares: Con, 40.5% +/- 0.5%; Labour, 39.5% +/- 1.5%; LD, 12% +/- 1%; Others 10% +/- 0. And to top it, no statistically significan difference between the ComRes and ICM either! The shares: Con, 40.5% +/- 0.5%; Labour, 34% +/- 1.5%; LD, 17% +/- 1%; Others 9% +/- 1.
Also Justin (30)and Gabble (32); please pay no attention to a 2% lead change. Could be rounding of 0.1 or 0.2%. Roger H. (38) don’t give up on the polls, just read them more carefully than most journalists write them up!