ICM finds support for UKIP down to ZERO percent
October 31st, 2007
What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party?
On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election.
When that vote came, just eleven months later, the party received a paltry 618,000 votes which amounted to less than 2.4% of the national vote. It did not win any Westminster seats although it’s argued that the performances of their candidates in key marginals cost the Tories a clutch of seats.
Earlier in 2007 the party was making the headlines again when two former Conservative Lords defected. Lords Pearson and Willoughby de Broke said they felt Cameron’s Conservative Party was not producing policy to support their beliefs.
Today, Julian Glover in the Guardian reports that in the latest poll published this morning UKIP did not register at all. Not a single respondent said the party would be their choice.
UKIP, like other smaller parties, is suffering from the increasing polarisation of big party politics. The question is whether this will have an impact on the number of seats changing hands and if so how should punters factor this in? For the UKIP element does not figure in the standard seat predictors except in so far as a part of the decline in support might mean switching to other parties.
We saw in the ICM marginals poll on the weekend that Gord called off the election that the Tories were doing well in the key seats. In that survey five people said they would vote UKIP.
All this is why in my commons seat spread betting I’m now assuming that the Tories will do a little better than the Baxter and Wells seat predictors suggest. When you have £100 a seat positions the odd five gains or losses either way can make a big difference.
Meanwhile on the Betfair general election “most seats” market the Tories have moved into the favourite slot once again.
Mike Smithson
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It is inevitable that there will be a substantial vote for the UKIP and/or other anti-EU parties and/or the nearest equivalent, for as long as ther EU exists in anything like its current form. If a general election were held now, the UKIP candidates would get about the same, or slightly less, than they did in 2005 - but not a lot less. The UKIP may be very good at having internal problems and difficulty in getting across, but its profile is bound to increase as usual along with the normal electoral cycle.
This won’t mean much. The sort of people that consider voting UKIP are those very rightwing Conservatives and they mainly exist in safe Conservative seats. Thus whether they flick back and forth between the two parties won’t count for much as seat changes happen in marginal seats. The Tories would have to win five UKIP voters over to justify losing one to the Lib Dems in the centre.
@ 1 JohnLoony 4:08am
Given the Conservative pledge to, “amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that if any future government agrees any treaty that transfers further competences from Britain to the EU, a national referendum before it could be ratified would be required by law”.
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=139251
It seems very likely that UKIP will get substantially less, if any, support at the next general election, than they got in 2005.
I think it may matter a lot in context of the london Mayorals and
GLA elections next May.
If the trend is confirmed it will definitely benefit Boris and all but guarantee the BNP seats on the assembly.
Johnloony @ 1. ICM interviewed 1,011 people and could not find a single person who said they would support UKIP. Not one! Saying that UKIP candidates would get about the same, or slightly less, than they did in 2005 strikes me as a rather, erm, courageous prediction.
I don’t think one should pay too much attention to the polls when trying to predict support for party’s polling up to 3%. Too many variables.
O/T Australia, possibly as a result of the latest polls showing the parties pulling closer together, that Howard surviving in his Bennelong seat has tightened to less than 5/2 on. Clearly, regardless of a change of government, the punters believe Howard himself will hang on. Presumably this will have implications for the leadership contest where Costello is a clear favourite but must surely, surely only occupy this position due to his stature. If there is a severe defeat for the Liberals, I cannot imagine Costello can really sell himself as the answer. And if Howard is still around as an MP he will continue to do anything he can to promote someone else.
Alexander Drake got any opinions on this?
O/T Jarkko Nieminen is a must bet at 11/4 to beat Andy Murray this morning in the Paris Masters tennis. Murray was involved in a car crash earlier this week and has suffered back stiffness which could really affect his serve. I think he’s only still playing in the competition because this is the last tournament of the year he can gain ranking points to possibly qualify for the end of season Masters Cup. Murray just can’t be in peak fitness and whenever he’s played with injury niggles in the past his serve turns to push. Both players have been in good form reaching finals last week, but with an injury question mark of that size over the Scot, I’d make Nieminen favourite. The bookies seem not to have noticed - take the 11/4 with http://www.sportingbet.com.
Poor old UKIP. You’re bound to suffer when a larger party steals your main policy.
Now, who is it who has started pushing an ‘in or out’ referendum on EU membership - and now seems to be reviving in the polls?
2. There’s a common error in assumption there. Floating voters don’t just live in marginal seats and secure voters don’t just live in safe seats. A marginal is such because the number of ‘banker’ votes for two or more parties is pretty close. There is then the floating vote on top.
It’s true that there is likely to be more Tory/UKIP waverers in a safe Tory seat than in a marginal - there are more Tory votes to start with. And that’s probably the crucial variable. There will be people with the same views in marginals and safe Labour seats, and while they’re likely to exist in smaller numbers, the difference won’t be that small. The same should be true of solidly Labour voters in marginals and seats safe for another party.
Besides, if the collapse is in the UKIP vote, then the swing will take place not where the Tory vote is highest but where the UKIP vote was highest (and I don’t think the two are that strongly corrolated though I’ve not checked it out in detail). From a not that reliable memory, that could include quite a lot of marginals particularly in the South-West and other assorted coastal towns but also elsewhere.
Bring back Kilroy!
UKIP will pick up a decent vote in the next European Parliamentary elections. At national elections, like the Lib Dems but on a much smaller scale, they come under pressure when the national picture looks close between Labour and the Conservatives. But it would not surprise me in the least if they picked up 2-3% at a General Election due to having a PPB, a bit more coverage and focussing campaigning on a couple of small areas in each seat they contest. They probably lose out a bit from the BNP being sadly better organised than in the past. But of course the BNP will not contest enormous numbers of seats - often alienated right wingers will not have that choice.
7 Anatole. I have a suspicion that Howard will lose his seat. He’s up against the Aussie equivalent of Sue Lawley before she did Desert Island Discs in Bennelong. There only needs to be a 5% swing against him for him to lose so if there’s no favouritism to him as PM he’s almost certainly toast.
The Govt here is full of ministers who’ve held top jobs for years and Costello is seen as being the perpetual bridesmaid. The only reasonably well-known minister who has charisma is Malcolm Turnbull. He’s a definite contender for the party leadership, but you’d be brave to bet on him, as his seat is held on a 2.5% swing. Having said that, he has been positioning himself very cleverly lately as a Liberal Environment Minister who is actually concerned about the environment - a considerable achievement in itself and one worth a few points on the day, I’d say.
12 no Sue Lawley didn’t do Desert Island Discs in Bennelong, but Maxine McKew (ALP candidate in Bennelong) can perhaps be equated with Sue Lawley about 10 years ago.
Eat your heart out Lynn Truss and Stephen Phelps. I didn’t know Sue Lawley had ever done Desert Island discs in Bennelong
What are the implications of % UKIP support?
“‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-PARTY!!”
But Chad Noble will remain loyal!
8- henryg Good analysis. I would add that Nieminen is in very good shape. He only lost in the final (against Federer, no less) in Basel last week.
I’m actually quite surprised we’re leading on this today. I just read around the papers which look rotten for Brown and Labour. The two most important, the Sun and the Mail, lead on the immigration chaos and blame Labour. The Times leads on the expected u-turn on CGT; of course it’s good that Labour backed down, but it looks hellishly incompetent and like a Chancellor that got his basic sums wrong.
The government today looks shambolic.
They need to get a grip to have any hope of recovery. Gerrymandering the spending rules won’t help them, and they also likely won’t get it through in time.
I ask again, what is Brownism? What’s Brown’s “vision” he wanted us to wait for? Can a Labour poster tell me. What is it other than u-turns and nicking Tory policies and then implementing them badly?
18. That’s not really a new story though - and I’m sure there’ll be another opportunity before too long. I think it’s a good idea for Mike to have a look at these different subjects once in a while.
18 “what is Brownism?”
Staying at the crease just so that the Tories aren’t there.
“Party over Country - every time, for all time” - that is close to being the narrative of Brownism…..
Expect UKIP to lose the majority if not all of their seats in the European Parliament in 2009.
12. Thanks Stephen. Clearly though the markets *are* ascribing such incumbency benefits to him - I can’t remember the exact figures but last time I looked (a couple of weeks ago) I’m sure he was not favourite to win his seat. Now he has pulled ahead and into a commending favourite position - something has been moving the markets. Question is, what?
I understand that Costello is a Gordon Brown / Paul Martin-like eternal bridesmaid but surely for the electorate they would be offered someone who wasn’t even deemed good enough to be leader by their own party - Howard’s decision not to hand over to him earlier this year (?) seemed to me one of the most humiliating moments for a public figure in my memory. He was essentially forced to admit openly that Howard didn’t think he was up to the job of leader; and that most of the party seemed to agree. And there was no sense of fight, just resignation. I can’t imagine this un-manliness goes down well with our antipodean cousins …
20 Rather like Majorism then staying at the crease till the bitter end just so Blair was not there .
Dacre’s Mail Comment column, attacks the Govt over the immigration figures but makes no mention of Brown.
“So much for that Labour soundbite: ‘British jobs for British workers. ‘When will this Government get a grip?”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/news/newscomment.html?in_page_id=1787
23 “Rather like Majorism then staying at the crease till the bitter end just so Blair was not there”
The difference being that the voters put Major there to keep Kinnock from having a slog…..
Oh, and perhaps the virulent anti-Torism of Brownism was best summed up by Kinnock’s wish “to grind the bastards into the dust”. Class act that Kinnock. People of 1992, t’was the right thing you did!
Looks like UKIP might be going the same way as the Referendum Party from a few years back. The Conservatives have moved into their territory and whilst they aren’t preaching exactly the same mantra, the similarity is enough for the public to lose interest.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
The Lib Dems are at risk of going the same way as UKIP:
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article3112788.ece
At a trivial level what the poll obviously shows is sampling error, since it’s demonstrably true that there are still UKIP supporters around, and I’d expect them to put up a bit of a fight in the next Euro-elections. Nonetheless, I think that most supporters regretfully concede that it’s not worked out. A significant number have gone BNP, some Tory, a few to other parties (as Stevo points out, the only major party offering a referendum on membership is the LibDems, an unexpected USP for them), and some have just given up. The bottom line is that single-issue parties simply don’t work in countries with FPTP.
And to do the usual “Check out what David Herdson has said today, so I can agree with it” bit, I think post 10 is an important insight into marginals in geneal.
Maybe all the UKIP voters have upped sticks and defected to the Lib Dems, the only one of the mainstream parties - hard to believe that it is - that seemingly wants an “in or out” referendum? In the event of a hung parliament, will one of the LDs’ key demands be an “in or out” referendum? If they get it, and the nation votes “out”, will they then take a full & active part in negotiating Britain’s exit expeditiously from the EU? Hm, I wonder… Any LD supporters on here care to venture any thoughts on that?
As for UKIP, I think it would be in their interests, and that of the country, if they became a highly vocal pressure group not a political party, and joined forces with the other anti-EU/’give us a referendum’ groups. In doing so, they would be advancing greatly the cause they supposedly exist for, and disproving the notion that they are a personal grudge against the modern Conservative Party.
UKIP would get an uplift if a GE in 2009 was at the same time as the Euro elections.
However the fall out from the Scottish election shambles may rule out having two elections with different voting systems on the same day.
25 and of course John Major lead the tory party to the highest number of votes ever received by a party in a GE. Now how many votes has Brown received as leader?
30 - would they? I actually think that would boost Tory support because UKIPpers would be able to express their hatred of the EU through the Euro vote and back the Tories in the GE.
There does seem to be an assumption that the next GE will be held on the same day - another great idea Gordon, keep ‘em coming.
iif DC promises a referendum on the EU constitution as now offered, UKIP will take a hit in terms of votes. But would that even be a considerstion without UKIP?
The oft mentioned EU-enthusiasm of Clegg/Huhne threatens LD seats, especially in the SW. Even if UKIP simply has a candidate, it highlights the EU as an issue. It may even trip some LD-leaning floating voters to support the tories. It won’t need many….
UKIP’s significance as a single issue party is greater than the number of votes it receives in a GE.
27. Rik - nice thought, but can we really give much credence to an article that included this line ‘Ming Campbell had a personal hinterland and integrity that could have framed an anti-establishment narrative’ ???
Re. UKIP - it wasn’t long ago that many Lib Dems were confidently predicting that Farage’s mob would be attracting hordes of disaffected Tory votes. Good prediction (!)
31 and next election he led them to a massive disaster at the polls . Signing off now flat move in progress .
32: Your right Bob its another idea of Brown’s doomed to failure - as any 5 year old could have predicted!
Cameron has, to all intents and purposes, dropped the referendum issue. He has kept this policy switch under the radar and Brown, who called Cam’s bluff, is keeping quiet about it too.
Once it dawns on europhobe electors that the Tories have finally stopped “banging on about Europe” then presumably support for UKIP will pick up.
If Kilroy doesn’t come back as front man then there are plenty of other twits from the media and showbiz who would fancy spot of limelight.
I have just looked at the DMAG analysis of the 2004 London elections which is broken down on a ward basis. UKIP polled best in the east (north an south of the river) That included coming first in wards in Barking and DAgenham and the (then) traditional Labour wards of Havering.
UKIP should concentrate everything on the Euro elections and avois other contests. In that way they might attract sympathetic voters/candidates from the mainstream political parties.
By fighting all other elections they appear just another party.
37. What a hilarious post - so much straw clutching and wishful tthinking in just a few lines.
35 good luck with th emove Mark , never the most relaxing of times!!
27. What a bizarre article. Who’d have that guy as an advisor, oh wait, Mark Oaten…
UKIP’s problem, is not its policies, there is support for them, in fact if you scratch most Tories, they are nearer UKIP in their views than they are Cameron.
UKIP’s problem is leadership, a party of the right, neads a charismatic, populist leader, constantly in the news, banging the drum, particularly on its main theme, withdrawal from the EU.
My own candidate, for leader of UKIP is that much misunderstood, comic genius Jim Davidson. Once beloved of the party faithful at Tory Pary conferences. Oh! how is homophobic, racist and anti-European jokes would have the party faithful rolling in the aisles. Tragically, I shouldn’t imagine ‘Our Jim’ would find much favour with, Cameron’s Conservatives.
So UKIP let the call go out, Jim is the one, ‘Cometh the hour, cometh the man’
p.s.
If any one would like to see the full un-censored collection of Jim’s remarkable career, I have it all on DVD, which I am prepared to hire to PB contributors at a reduced rate: hours and hours of total filth for your enjoyment.
I suspect that there are far more likely and acceptable celebrities who might lead, rather than front, a xenophobic populist party. I wonder that someone isn’t running a book on it.
[24] So why do employers prefer immigrants over British workers? Could it be that they are younger, cheaper, more easily bullied etc etc?
Remember, the employer-employee relationship is at heart a transaction, at best loveless, frequently abusive. For employers, the more one identifies with one’s workforce (e.g through their being of the same nationality) the more one is likely to regard them as people rather than factors of production, to be disposed of like a length of loo roll when they have served their purpose.
I would go so far as to say that even if it weren’t significantly cheaper to outsource jobs to Hungary, India etc, many employers would still do it. Why look into the workers’ eyes if you don’t have to?
42: I’ve yet to meet a Tory who likes Jim Davidson. The have no problem with Archer…
18 “what is Brownism?”
Not ‘The Third Way’ as popularised by that LSE Vice Chancellor more like ‘The Lost Way’ after The Pied Piper of Dunfermline. OK, I know it’s somwhere else in Fife and has involved much inappropriate linking with Adam Smith. But, the Dunfermline by-election showed Brown’s inability to inspire even those living mainly on benefit handouts or public sector largesse.
24
If you believe in free markets, then you have to believe that employers, have the right to hire labour, wherever and however they wish, at the lowest possible price. Only a socialist, would want the state to interfere with that right.
Has anyone seen the Daily Mail piece on Evan Harris? What has he done them to deserve it?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=490815&in_page_id=1770
45. Well at least one of them is funny on occasion.
You can make your mind up which one.
46.”But, the Dunfermline by-election showed Brown’s inability to inspire even those living mainly on benefit handouts or public sector largesse.” ??!!
“UKIP, like other smaller parties, is suffering from the increasing polarisation of big party politics.”
I don’t think this is true. When Labour steal the Tories proposal to chuck money at the rich by cutting IHT, it is indicative of a point in time when the two parties have never been closer.
How then to understand the reduction in support for “others”? I think it is instructive to consider that this reduction is mainly in a decrease in support for the right-wing UKIP, whereas support for the leftist Greens and Nationalists remains more stable.
I think that people now feel as though Cameron can win. I also think that, more generally, voting Tory is now seen as the way to punish Labour, in part because Cameron has sufficently rehabilitated the Tory “brand”. It is at times such as this that history can mislead, because the underlying assumptions that we have for so long taken for granted have changed in ways that we have never experienced before. When was the last time Labour were in government for 10 years and heading towards 13?
46 - And what did the Ealing Southall bye-election show us? That pride cometh before a fall.
The 2009 Euros will give UKIP a shot in the arm. They’re not dead yet.
44 There is some truth in this of course, but people who migrate from one country to another are generally cleverer and more go-getting than those who don’t - you don’t get teenage hoodies or elderly welfare dependents as immigrants. You get the 20-30-40 year olds, generally with skills and qualifications which are in demand in the country they are migrating to. Many of the world’s most successful countries have been built on mass migration - the USA, Australia, Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong to name a few. Despite the bleating of local councils, migrants in general make far less demands on welfare services than natives.
48. I always thought he would make an excellent Lib Dem leader. So much more in tune with the Lib Dem grassroots than Tory impersonators like Ashdown and Campbell, so much more serious than Kennedy.
42
Really! then why was he cheer leader for the Tories at their conferences, where he seemed to get a very good reception. Why was he such a close friend of IDS, in fact giving IDS money for his leadership campaign.
Having said that, I remember when ‘Our Jim’ (IDS’s description of him) turned up a Virginia Bottomley’s walk-about in Farnham in the ‘92 campaign, she did not look overpleased. Particularly as ‘Our Jim’ had his wife of the week, with him, whose tits were hanging out of her blouse. Ah! ‘Our Jim’ a wonderful man whose contribution to politics has not been fully recognised.
Jim! return from your self imposed exile in Dubai, driven there by this hideous socialist government, your country needs you.
52: That Labour is still unpopular but not enough for the Lib Dems to have taken the seat.
56: Labour Party members clapped Blair, and now they are clapping Brown.
54. If you look at the stats you will find that characterisation only fits immigrants from certain parts of the world (EU, Old Commonwealth). New Commonwealth immigration is much more a function of family reunion/marriages rather than job seeking. Those looking for work or coming for a definite job are also a minority of immigrants from the rest of the world (ex-EU and total Commonwealth).
48. It is a little bit aggressive that piece really has ruffled someone’s feathers. One of the comments says “This guy has always given me the creeps since I saw him on TV advocating telling primary school children about certain sexu@l exploits.” - tad harsh!
57 - Anyone remember “David Cameron’s Conservatives”? Or how abour Labour finishing an appaling third, with Tony Lit soaring to victory?
Tories have a right to crow and gloat about their current standing and the travails of the government - but not too much. Some of you think you have already won, which is music to our ears. Labour’s victory in 2009 (with a 40+ majority as I have said before!) will be all the sweeter and will at last force you to *really* modernise, just like we had to.
Well I’ve always liked Jim Davidson (the performer more than the person I must add), some recent unguarded outbursts aside. But then I’m not strictly “a Tory” i suppose.
It always surprised me that his Friday night stand up shows continued to be shown - and endlessly repeated - on BBC1 until a couple of years back, given the un-pc nature of some of his material (but come on, he’s hardly Bernard Manning is he?). However, the reason for this may have been the fantastic ratings his shows used to get, consistently outperforming anything they were up against (usually some leftie, alternative drivel on Channel 4, Newsnight, or regional guff on ITV it must be said…).
I don’t know, but I suspect Jim may be reasonably warm to Cameron’s Tories - given that they are at 40%+ in the polls, they are not Gordon Brown, and they look set to win the next GE. Why would he want to be involved with a bunch of fruitcakes like UKIP (their eccentricity amply illustrated by the picture atop this page)?
61. Don’t really know what you mean by “modernise” I reckon you are missing the point . with re: Ealing Southall, bad candidate during Brown’s honeymoon, if it was run now it would be a bit more tasty
Jim Davidson is a reactionary scumbag who likes to abuse people and when said person calls him up on it he screams the usual “pc gorn mad” line, or “don’t you have a sense of humour”? Not when you’re clling me a nancyboy shirtlifter, no, I don’t have a sense of bloody humour. He honestly feels hard done by because he can’t call black people “n*ggers” anymore. What a waste of space.
Evan Harris, was given the nickname Dr Death by his fellow Lib Dem MPs!
Saw him on Newsnight, he had “something of the night about him”.
Has anyone seen him eat a meal of food?
63 - I mean that Cameron thought he was so *personally* popular he could ride roughshod over a traditional Labour area (with an unusual ethnic mix for the UK) and just storm to victory because he’s, you know, Davey Cameron and he’s so damn groovy.
66. I am glad that you are coming round to him
61: As Jimbo says, bad candidate, Brown’s honeymoon, massive ‘thank God Blair’s gone’ mood, and yet out of the three main parties only Labour lost votes.
Now UKIP’s vote is collapsing. Who does that help?
42 & 45
Jim Davidson is still a Tory. In May 2006 he endorsed the 3 Conservative candidates in Kidbrooke with Hornfair ward (London Borough of Greenwich) where he grew up and where there was a 12% swing to the Conservatives and 2 Con gains from Lab.
On the issue of UKIP, until now I believe they have taken votes from Labour as much as from the Conservatives. I agree with the view that their support is probably being worn away, (along with Liberals and Greens and all the ‘Others’) as everyone takes sides for the big Labour/Conservative battle.
64 Indeed Jim thinks you can take a pop at anyone apart from himself. A very weak man.
66 As for Ealing Southall, that was definitely a case of Dave believing his own hype. A bit like Brown around the Labour conference.
66: ‘ride roughshod over a traditional Labour area’
Which party leader did that almost daily for ten years?
Off topic: The always-thoughtful http://letsbesensible.blogspot.com/
discusses the use of witty/playful abuse for serious political purposes in “Bloggertarians and the Conservative project”. I won’t cross-post but I suspect anyone who has read the comments on Gordon Brown in recent months here and elsewhere will recognise some elements. I know Hopi Sen, the guy whose blog is quoted - he’s an intelligent chap and if Mike ever updates his list of links I’d encourage him to include both blogs.
59 Yes but the vast majority of the new immigrants in recent years are from the new EU or old Commonwealth. IMO this has been substantially beneficial to the UK economy - the benefits far outweigh the costs.
72 Well it’s not a surprise. The boy George has been playing this game from the start. What comes around goes around. There is something not quite right about George Osbourne.
51 “I also think that, more generally, voting Tory is now seen as the way to punish Labour, in part because Cameron has sufficently rehabilitated the Tory “brand”.”
I think that an overlooked aspect of the Brown non-election is that 2009, it will be seventeen years since the Tories won an election, 12 since they were in power. Those extra couple of years is all time vital to help Cameron to rehabilitate the Tory brand further - from protest party to Government. There’s now scope for their previous failures and antics in Government to fade; more time for the possibility of the Tories being in power to compare favourably with the actuality of Brown. More time for “Buggins turn” to come into play. More time to get to know the alternative Government-in-waiting (Osborne’s very recent rise in profile - and apparent capability - being just one example).
Brown has given the Tories time to get their act together. That vital Lull, essential to train more Tory pilots for the Eton Heir Force to take off….
Sad to see the usual leftie outrage towards the likes of straight-talking men of the people like Jim Davidson. Indeed, RedFlump’s post at 64 is potentially libellous. Has he ever called black people “n…..s” to your knowledge or is that just more of the usual lefty lies?
Also - would Jonathan and RedFlump confirm that they have actually sat through Davidson’s act and therefore able to pass fair comment?
Regarding UKIP some facts.
Since 2005 their membership has almost halved from 28,000. It went up (they say) by a few hundred to 16,700 last year. Their Members average age is much higher than the other main 3.
UKIP only received 0.6m votes in GE 2005, down from the 2.6m at the Euros in 2004.
They now only have 8 councillors in England and 1 in Northern Ireland.
A party that has lost so many members and has so few councillors is essentially moribund. Add in, the splits and scandals amongst its MEPS, that it does not have enough healthy activists or the organisational cohesion to progress. Its Leader, Farage, is locked into internecine fights with anyone who dares to ask for a more professional approach.
The evidence all points to a dying party.
27 - The only qualification the author appears to have for knowing anything about the Lib Dems is that he was an ‘advisor to Mark Oaten’.
I will read his remarks in that light.
27 and 78, was the person an advisor on political matters to Mr Oaten or social activities?
Why would anyone think that a good point to put on their CV?
76 - Come on Jim - sue me! Can’t he take a joke? It’s PC GORN MAD I tells you!
If he can’t take it he shouldn’t dish it out. “Straight talking man of the people” my a*se! I had more respect for you than that Bob.
Oh, and BTW, I have better things to do with my life than sit through such reactionary dirge - and I don’t want to see anymore of his so-called “adult” pantos either. Brrrrrr, the thought makes me shiver!
22 Anatole (Australian election: Howard and his seat of Bennelong) - I don’t think that Howard has ever been anything other than favourite in his own seat on Betfair. But the polls in that constituency have put Labor ahead. See http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/08/12/galaxy-in-benelong-53-to-47-in-labors-favour/
I have to say I don’t think you need to sit through something to comment on it. I’m pretty angry at the sermons being preached in mosques, as reported, and don’t feel the need to attend one to critique them.
80 - as I thought. Slagging off something you’ve never seen. Your biggest beef is that he’s a Tory. His material is no more offensive (to less sensitive souls than RedFlump) than anything in the Daily Mail or the Telegraph.
I suppose you rate Eddie Izzard…?
Jim Davidson & Ealing Southall & we’re not being respectful enough to the Great Leader - desperate stuff.
Poll reported in Scottish Telegraph by Scottish Centre for Social Research showing support for independence at a 10 year low:
23% independence down from 30 last year
55% want Scottish Parliament with tax raising powers
8% want Scottish Parliament without taxraising powers
No more details. Dont think its on website either.
46 - And what did the Ealing Southall bye-election show us? That pride cometh before a fall.
Red Flump
But not half as long-lasting or as disappointing as Electus Interruptus.
83 - Are you joking Bob? As Test so eloquently put it, I don’t have to sit through anything to know that I wouldn’t like it. Jim Davidson is a cheap, desperate little man that the world has left behind. Good job. I couldn’t care less if he were a Tory or not - I am not some 14 year old who think s that all Tories are evil.
Oh and FYI, I can abide the Torygraph, but the Mail is clearly beyond my taste!
73. Sorry that is not true.
In 2005, net immigration from the New Commonwealth and the ROW was over 60% of the total. Total EU (including accession countries) & Old Commonwealth less than 40%.
76 Unfortunately I sat through his “poor me” act on a number of occasions. IMO he has the right to say what he likes. But he does not have the right to duck the consequences of what he says.
If you insult someone, you’ll get a response and rightly so. When people like JD get a response they’ll blame political correctness and claim you’re attacking their free speech. It’s that which makes him weak. They dish it out, but they can’t take it. Weak, weak weak.
” Now, who is it who has started pushing an ‘in or out’ referendum on EU membership - and now seems to be reviving in the polls? ”
There is no way on earth that anyone who is fairly ‘anti-EU’ would choose to support the Lib Dems who are by far the most pro-european mainstream party!
The wholesale ‘in out’ pledge/policy is a classic issue avoiding stance followed time and time again by them to try and limit damage or loss of votes on something emotive.
Even if a few percent were swayed initially by the promise of a in or out vote (the Lib Dems would campaign for in), when the parties general stance of European is better known during debate (and the opposition pointing it out!) they’ll lose any support they gained on the issue.
UKIP’ers voting Lib Dem on the EU issue is like hard core BNP voters supporting Labour on immigration.
If there were an EU referendum, Labour would campaign for a ‘Yes’, the Conservatives would campaign for a ‘No’. This is clear and has been stated.
What have the Lib Dems said? - no to a referendum… but we’d like to move the goal posts so that we don’t have to tell you that in reality we’d be campaigning for a ‘Yes’ and supporting Labour to push it through.
72. Nick a very interesting piece. I think if you look back to the 80’s and 90’s and the hatchet jobs done on Tories by various groups (spitting image, ben elton etc) that this is something that has always and will always go on.
things that hit home often do have the whiff of the truth about them though. Third party endorsements from a lot of people who have dealt with them personally including former cabinet colleagues who say that “they would be an f**king awful prime minister” also add to that image. Therefore I do think Brown’s character is fair game as it is potentially a bit suspect. I also don’t think this is any major tory conspiracy its just that most tories don’t like brown and like ridiculing him (pre-non-election we feared him and thought he was doing a pretty good job) Note: that most labour people don;t liek cameron and try to ridicule him as lightweight, insubstantial and PR. It works both ways.
Finally, I think the personal attacks on Brown are reaching a bit of a crescendo and even tho i am a tory I think the anti-Brown halloween ads are pushing it.
65 Yes, I have. He also came up with one of the funniest lines when asked a question about NHS policy or somesuch - “I am not a proper doctor, I am a hospital doctor”.
Maybe you had to be there. Funnier than im Davidson, though.
88: “They dish it out, but they can’t take it. Weak, weak weak.”
Gordon Brown?
I’ve said my piece re Jim Davidson. I’ve also seen Bernard Manning live and thoroughly enjoyed it. To my mind, they both give/gave as good as they get/got. It’s the lefties who can’t take it and have to resort to lies, slander and a distortion of the truth.
And neither Jim nor Bernard, god bless him, ever spouted out anything like the hatred that comes from certain sources so massively tolerated and indulged by those on the Left.
90 The US strategy might not work in the UK. We British are a different breed, we love an underdog. The moment Cameron looks like he’s strutting and puffed up he is in trouble. Blair understood this and was the church mouse through 97, avoiding complacency even on election night. Cameron and Osbourne look like arrogant SOBs under the skin and it pops out every now and again. Major benefited as the underdog to cocky Kinnock. There is every reason that Brown will do the same if they continue to villifiy him.
UKIP do seem to be on the way out, and this will benefit the Conservatives at the margins. My guess is that in the London Assembly, their vote will decline, to the benefit of both the Tories and BNP, enabling the former to pick up Enfield/Haringey, and the latter to pick up one or two seats on the assembly. The Conservatives should make gains at their expense in the next Euro elections, and the BNP may well gain their first MEPs as well.
IMHO, UKIP’s biggest problem has been the endless infighting, which has destroyed what could have been quite a promising position.
92 - Oh dear Bob. Seems we shall have to agree to disagree. I just don’t find calling people offensive names funny. Its OK if you are a straight white male, “telling it like it is”. God help you if you’re anything else.
93. And what if Cameron doesnt look like he’s puffed up?
What then do you depend on?
94. I suspect a majority of the more ‘activist’ UKIPers will head in the direction of the BNP or drop out of party politics completely. Among the UKIP voters, the Tories will probably gain the largest share, but a fair number probably won’t vote at all next time.
87 I find that very hard to believe - those figures must come from the same source as the government figures that changed by 100% in one day yesterday! All the anecdotal talk about immigration these days is about eastern Europeans and certainly they are the most obvious new groups in London, where I live.
93. I think it’s wishful thinking to see the Clunking Fist as either wanting to, or being capable of, casting himself as any sort of underdog. It is counter-intuitive to his persona.
93 Don’t depend on Cameron to do anything! Of course the odd Cameron mistake is useful and there are plenty of them. But it’s still the govts to win or lose.
99 Not so sure. Remember “Not flash just Gordon”.
Also, how the devil are “New” and “Old” Commonwealth defined?!
93. but you have to admit that Labour tried US attack stuff with their Cameron the cameleon attack ads. It works both ways.
At the moment the right has the initiative in the UK blogosphere as Labour is in power, it will be interesting to see how that changes if the Tories ever get back in power. There is currently a complete lack of a coherent and powerful voice on the left of British politics at present though.
98 Large numbers of migrants from EU countries are essentially short term migrants. Migrants from Third World countries tend to be long-term migrants, because so many of them are admitted on family reunions or as spouses.
89
‘” Now, who is it who has started pushing an ‘in or out’ referendum on EU membership - and now seems to be reviving in the polls? ”
The same party promised a referendum on the EU constitution and look what happened to that,no doubt the Lib Dems will find a convenient excuse to ditch this latest promise when it no longer suits them.
RedFlump @ 95
Bob Sykes @ 92
Bob is quite right about left-wing hatred somehow being tolerated. What about Kinnock’s “grind the Tory b***ards into the dust” comment? If someone said this about gay people or immigrants they would rightly be condemned from all quarters. But Kinnock and the left in general (Livingstone is another one) get away scott free with hate-filled rhetoric against the Tories, business, the House of Lords, public schools, people who have private healthcare and anything else deemed non-PC.
The “Cameron = Eton toff” line is a classic example, based on nothing more than spite and predjudice. He can’t help where he went to school.
101 Depending on whether they became independent before or after 1947, with the exception of South Africa, which left the Commonwealth in 1961, and rejoined in 1994, and is defined as New Commonwealth.
100. Well let see, so far youve mentioned the underdog concept, for the government and its leader and that cameron could get too puffed up thus helping to create this underdog.
And if he doesn’t help create this underdog?
Secondly if its the governments to win, why would you want them to be underdogs?
How about looking like winners? Goprdon & Labour have been in power way too long to pull that stroke.
What helped start the big turnaround in the polls? The Tories looked like they mean’t business, like they had ideas, like they were winners.
Instead of coming up with ideas like that maybe you should suggest that they govern and go on their record.
Substance, just Gordon….apparently.
102 It would be interesting, but maybe the net will look very different in 2015.
But it will always be easy to write against the govt than for it.
72 Nick Palmer MP draws our attention to a Blogger who says that the Conservatives are adopting a negative personal campaign towards Brown. WTF.
What then about the Labour campaign last year with the “Cam the chameleon” political broadcast? Pot calling the kettle black on that one Nick. You cannot attempt to gain the higher moral ground when your own party is up to its neck in the stinky stuff that it chooses to chuck.
As it turned out the chameleon broadcast back fired but Nick that does not excuse you making a partisan point whilst ignoring the depths that your motley crew have sunk. “Why point out the splinter in someone’s eye etc….”
That said I always read your posts and you are clearly a credit to your constituency. So have a good day.
105. Course he can Graeme, he can atone for his sin by sending his kids to the worst sink estate school in the locality.
Just like all those Labour ministers do to show they are down with the everyday man and woman.
Maybe UKIP would do better if they have a better quality control process when selecting candidates? They seem to have been very careless with the MEPs they got elected.
104. The Lib Dems lost the election - they are therefore perfectly entitled to change their minds.
107 There is a HUGE difference between looking like winners and looking like you think you are the winner.
Cameron does tend to the latter quite eaily, he may be the former for now so he is ok currently, but he needs to be careful.
98
‘I find that very hard to believe - those figures must come from the same source as the government figures that changed by 100% in one day yesterday! All the anecdotal talk about immigration these days is about eastern Europeans and certainly they are the most obvious new groups in London, where I live.’
The government would certainly like you to believe that the majority of immigration is from the EU as they can then say that there’s nothing they can do about it.
Even yesterday Liam Byrne was trying to claim that 80% of immigration was from the EU,either he’s using old figures or just lying.He then went on to say that he didn’t have a clue about the numbers.
108. I think thats the key. I don’t know what the blogs/viral advertising in the states is like currently but i imagine that the emphasis would be anti-republican
I have not had time to check earlier postings but in case not previously raised I would highlight Scottish poll on Independence in
Herald.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1797743.0.0.php
105 - I was thinking more of the bile spilling out of our Mosques in particular, and the Muslim displays of hate in public demos that goes unpunished by the police/CPS, rather than silly comments from Kinnock. You’re right though re Livingstone, his anti-Jewish comments presumably won’t get him a slagging off from RedFlump and Jonathan.
But for as long as I’ve been interested in politics, the Left has always displayed gross double-standards in this respect.
98. Whatever the flaws in the official statistics they are likely to be more accurate than anecdotal ‘down the pub’ comment.
Eastern European immigration may be so noticeable because a) it is largely oriented around taking jobs, especially in visible sectors like retail/hospitality and contsruction and b) it involves new groups of people appearing in areas where immigration has previously been limited.
The large rise in New Commonwealth and ‘other’ immigration may be less obvious as it involves a lot more dependents and is targeted at areas where the ethnic population is already very large.
101. Old Commonwealth is Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa.
113 Liam Byrnes admits that he cannot do his job because the government doesnt have any idea what the real numbers are!
112. Right now you are clutching at straws or something else.
Maybe you’ll turn out to be right, but right now its clutching.
Here is a genuinely interesting piece from Matt Frei on the cost of oil in the states. I am really enjoying his stuff at the moment.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7070346.stm
Has made be think a bit. Is the the unpopular fuel escalator
unwittingly protecting the UK economy from the oil price rise? Since the ’90s the UK has absorped high fuel into it’s economy.
The cost of crude is a small part of the overall cost. So when it rises it effects us not quite so much and disproportionately compared to the rest of the world.
Does anyone agree. Fuel taxes, a blessing in disguise perhaps.
re 30 I thought it wasn’t legal to hold Euro and general elections on the same day.
UKIP are at a cross roads. Do they continue with a “Stand in every constituency” approach or adopt a more focused approach built around maximising their influence?
The gain they get from standing in every constituency is some more coverage (a broadcast) at election time. Yet they only got 2.2% of votes in 2005.
But what if they adopted a different approach that was based on only standing where in the two main contenders neither supported a referendum on the Treaty? (A variant on their BOO strategy).
For Conservative MPs and PPCs in marginals this would drive them into an anti-Treaty stand firming up that issue. A few of the euroscptics in Labour like Austin Mitchell would also gain as would a couple of Lib Dems. Conservative associations would also then tend to pick more eurosceptic candidates, driving out the few remaining europhiles. Some may even deselect their europhile MPS and candidates.
UKIP could then focus its resources on a smaller group of under 200 constituencies with the aim of boosting its vote to remove euro friendly MPs. It will also have produced a more eurosceptic parliament which it says is one of its goals. At least one of its former large sponsors would welcome a more pragmatic approach.
116 - I am not an anti-semite and I would thank you not to insinuate that I am. As a person of the left I am actually pretty pro-Israel, so it just goes to show, doesn’t it.
And BTW, Livingstone’s remarks were not anti semitic, they were anti the reporter and anti the Evening Standard for the hate campaign they have been running against him for years.
re 48 yes Evan Davies is a hero of mine as well. He’s so staunchly pro gay rights that I initially thought he was. It’s a shame that he hasn’t stood for the leadership and IIRC it was his wife’s illness which preevnted him from doing so last time.
Jonathan @ 120
Anything said by Matt Frei has to be taken with a pinch of salt. He is surely in the running for the “BBC’s most biased commentator” award (currently running neck and neck with John Simpson). Everything he says is coloured by his overtly anti-Republican stance. You can’t believe a word he says.
re 124 oops meant Evan Harris of course! Although it always brightens up my day to see Evan Davis on the news
124 I would prefer to stick needles in my eyes than vote for Evan Harris, but he’s undoubtedly an articulate exponent for a very left wing, very secular viewpoint.
125. It dont matter Graeme. We here don’t get to vote.
125 Nonetheless the cost of oil and why it doesn’t ** appear ** to matter as much as it used to is really interesting. It is maybe more important than the future of UKIP, Jim Davidson or Tory party spin tactics.
124 - Err… Evan Harris surely? For my part I think that he’s probably the only Lib Dem I couldn’t vote for if I was in his constituency, so I suspect that ‘Marmite-like’ would probably be a good way of describing him…
re 85 but it doesn’t - “pride goeth before destruction” Proverbs 16:18
129. Why not set up your own blog and discuss it with yourself then?
116. What were Livingstone’s anti-Jewish comments? Your not thinking about that nonsense of the concentration camp guard are you?
UKIP should just concentrate on the Euros. They are clearly not a national political party in any sense, but they do have a line of argument apposite to a particular set of elections. Stick to what you’re good at. After all, in Denmark, the Eurosceptic parties only really turn up for the Euro elections and I think that is true in other countries too. A more particular problem they have is that come 2009 I think the electorate will be rather critical of their performance giventhe large mandate they were given in 2004. They promised to wreck the Euoreapn Parlaiment which they clearly have not done nor have they played any role in reforming the institutions. They have squandered the good will of many of the electorate.
Yokel @ 128
You’re right, we don’t get to vote, but I prefer broadcasting that I’m having to pay for to be bias-free. The faces on Matt Frei and John Simpson when Bush scraped home in 2004 were a picture. You could read the disgust on their faces, after they were previously quite chipper when they thought he would lose.
I hold no remit for Bush, but I would prefer objective analysis from the BBC. If I want a political slant I will buy a newspaper, from which I am free to choose any of a number of different viewpoints. With the BBC I am stuck with overtly left-wing propaganda, which I then have the privilege of having to pay for!
133 Not anti-semitic as such. Merely abusing him in terms which, as a Jew, the man would find particularly offensive.
It’s similar to people comparing the Israeli government to Nazis.
One thing that is noticeable about the abortion debate in the media is that there are MPs from Lib Dems and Conservatives speaking out passionately about it.
The 330+ Labour MPs in the Commons are curiously quiet. Do they not have the same degree of passion about issues?
133: Livingstone picked that insult because the reporter was Jewish, so it was not just a general insult but one based on race.
136. I’m sure had Livingstone insulted a black reporter by referring to him as a ’slave driver’ (or worse) the consequences for him would have been more severe, and even his friends on the left would have struggled to play it down.
The recent debate on this site re immigration has tended to focus on statistics of foreign nationals in the UK legally. There are however immigrants here illegally and those which have arrived in recent years will predominantly be from outside the EEC. While some
people will argue we don’t know how many there are and the numbers may be insignificant there are indications this is not the case e.g. if one examines recent cases of foreign criminals subject to deportation appeals it is clear that many of them arrived in the UK illegally.
127 Sean what do you not like about him? Knowing you (from your comments here) I assume it is not based upon the Mail article which is to put it mildly somewhat over the top.
He seems articulate and logical in his arguments. He was in my opinion very brave in testing the Aids drug and if done for self publicity it was in my opinion a bridge or two too far!
My wife had to give evidence to a medical ethics committee on which he served and she was very impressed with him. He clearly knew his stuff.
From what I’ve seen even if one disagrees with his views on cetain topics he is a lot more impressive than many of the MPs of various colours.
135 - “I am stuck with overtly left-wing propaganda”. Now you know how Labour people feel when we watch ITV News (rarely!) Pure Daily Mail TV and so pro-Cameron it hurts. Everything the government does is seen through a prism of “why are these liars doing this now” rather than straight reporting - and letting the audience make its own mind up. It hate VIEWS shows - I want NEWS shows!
BBC reporting explosion at oil refinery in Essex - no further details.
Useful Kind of Idiot Party members would do well to get back to the Conservatives, and ensure Cameron’s promise on the referendum comes to fruition.
UKIP used to be a useful part of the political scene, for years raising awareness of the EU as an issue, and in particular initiating the referendum promise on the Constitution, which was copied first by Michael Howard, then Bair, then Chirac.
Only UKIP voters that want to help Gordon Brown should carry on voting UKIP now. They had their Kilroy Silk moment, blew it and have been on the downhill track ever since.
Time now for Ukippers to move on to more useful activities.
141 Nothing personal, it’s just that on the large majority of topics I’ve heard him speak on, his views and mine are totally at odds - although I did strongly approve his stand on animal testing.
136. I am no fan of the unprincipled self-publicist that is Livingstone. But I thought his suspension over that comment was absurd. I know some people will have theories about there being more Muslim voters in London than Jewish, but there’s no evidence that Livingstone thinks that way. And anyway, how was he to know the guy was Jewish?
If he was speaking to someone who had experienced the holocuast I could understand it - must ha