Flying blind on the Lib Dem race
November 5th, 2007
How certain is Clegg’s victory?
The latest Betfair prices on the Lib Dem race have Nick Clegg at 0.36/1 and yesterday’s guest on the site, Chris Huhne at 2.85/1. I did notice that there was a slight movement to Huhne during the morning and I wondered whether his confident performance in our online hustings had given him a boost. Who knows?
As far as I am aware there are unlikely to be any media-commissioned surveys of the electorate of party members. As for other polls I was hoping that tomorrow’s survey by Populus for the Times might have had a comparison of sorts - even amongst just voters as a whole. Alas, I understand, there won’t be anything. The media seems to have decided that the contest is of no consequence so why bother with any polling.
So the crazy thing is that we have almost no data to help us. Punters who are betting on this are flying blind. For is anybody able to say confidently what is it that appeals to Lib Dem members?
In the last race Huhne picked up a respectable 42% and asking round amongst party members I know I have found few switchers and one or two 2006 Ming supporters who will vote Huhne.
Clegg has done well picking up the lion’s share of the parliamentary party including from some MPs that you would not associate with the younger candidate’s rightish stance. Simon Hughes was a big coup.
The views of former leaders might also have an impact. Paddy Ashdown, who according to Alastair Campbell diaries was ready to “sell” the party to Labour in return for a cabinet seat, has gone for Clegg. The last Liberal Party leader, David Steel, is publicly backing Huhne because of his stance opposing a Trident replacement.
I think that there will be less than 5% in it and Clegg has probably got the edge. But the value bet is Huhne.
Mike Smithson
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Yup - I think it could be close, certainly closer than the current odds suggest.
If it is that close, then Huhne must be the value bet, mustn’t he?
Judging from the comments after the hustings in Leeds Chris Huhne is certainly the value bet.
OT: New article on the battle for the Democrat nomination
http://tinyurl.com/36kygr
What sort of a Leader do the Lib Dems need in the period ahead of probably 19/20 months to a GE?
The Lib Dems are facing a tough time. Probably losing 10,20 or worst case 30 MPs.
Whoever is the Leader may be unable to alter the outcome by much. In 4 years time Clegg is still in his 40s. Huhne would then be pushing 60 and even if things go well he is unlikely to last 8 years, a bad result in 09 may force Huhne out sooner. The smart move maybe to go for Huhne now and have him front the turmoil ahead. The Lib Dems then still have Clegg as their next Leader, spending the next few years acquiring experience.
I agree Huhne is better betting value, he would be the one I would pick just to keep Clegg next time.
5. HF. Ruthless. Machiavellian, even. But probably a good strategy in the long term.
5. The risk with that strategy is that the Lib Dems might never recover from a bad result with Huhne in charge…
5 - Don’t buy this strategy. If Clegg is the best person for the job then he should have it now. Writing off the next election is not a good idea - i don’t think it’s likely he’d have to go if they had a bad result anyway.
I’ve changed my view on their prospects of holding seats anyway. I think they’ve got significant potential to advance against Labour, especially since Labour are likely to be concentrating all their resources on the Tories.
I don’t think Huhne will be wanting a bad election result next time as he’d lose his seat whereas Clegg is fairly safe.
BBC Question Time (Lib Dem leadership edition) could be crucial in determining which way this goes.
“is anybody able to say confidently what is it that appeals to Lib Dem members?”
Yes. Charles Kennedy.
Whatever the outcome, I think the Lib Dems are going to be squeezed harder than at any time since the 60’s. 2010 if that’s when the election is called, is going to be a straight race methinks, and I dont think whoever wins the Lib Dem leadership can do much about it. The trump card of Iraq is now off the agenda, and as far as tax goes, they have moved from fanciful tax increases to fanciful tax cuts. Unless one or other of them can come up with something that really appeals to the voters, I cannot see either of them making a lot of difference (bar of course forcing a hung parliament) which IMHO would be a phyrric victory in any event.
Clegg chips in his two-pennyworth on the Tory candidate/Enoch Powell story. “This shows the Tories are still…blah, blah”.
He joins the grisly Peter Hain and Hazel Blears and that really sums him up - as a second rate opportunist.
But is Clegg going to appeal that much more than Huhne in 20 months time? They seem about level, two competent people ahead of most of Brown’s cabinet.
Huhne seems quicker on his feet and has a deeper voice. Factors that could give him an edge in the HoC. In 5+ years Clegg could have polished his parliamentary skills such that he could have a chance to command attention. PMQs could destroy Clegg if he won the Leadership too early.
The worst mistake the Conservatives made was choosing Hague too early. He faced a difficult challenge of re-building the Conservatives morale, something that the next LD Leader also has to do.
As to the judgement of their fellow MPs. That bunch chose Ming, enough said.
Odds stubbornly refuse to shift on Betfair.
Whoever is betting on Huhne, as soon as they do there’s a flurry of punters to lay off on him. Market looks very imbalanced.
Still, I can’t believe Huhnes chances are *that* low.
Clegg is only a sure winner with the MPs.
CR @ 14. You are right. Weird market. I get the feeling that it may get a mention in a future Second Edition of Mike’s book, as a warning to punters on misleading signals.
Agree with this analysis. I was at the leeds hustings and I thought Clegg easily came across as the better “communicator” in person but not everyone saw it that way. I think on tv they come across more evenly matched - both pretty good. Afterwards there were a few who voted huhne last time who said they are switching. Of course it’s going to be the armchair members that decide…
Yes, given how much backing Ming had in Westminster and then how close the membership vote was last time, it doesn’t make sense that Clegg is such a firm favourite. Especially as reports from hustings tend to say that it was very close but Huhne just edges it.
When is the televised hustings/Question Time/whatever?
What if it’s the Lib Dem policies and not their former leader that is responsible for their poor polls; with the leadership candidates promoting the ignoring of laws that you don’t like together with one-sided nuclear disarmament (which may be very popular with Lib Dem members)it’s conceivable that it could get worse for them.
O/T. The credit crisis isn’t going to go away:
Citigroup Inc. in a quarterly regulatory filing Monday said its so-called level 3 assets as of Sept. 30 were $134.84 billion. Level 3 assets are holdings that are so illiquid, or trade so infrequently, that they have no reliable price, so their valuations are based on management’s best guess.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-reports-1348-billion-level/story.aspx?guid=%7BC06333CB%2DC985%2D4B41%2DA7B2%2D1699184BBA4E%7D
19 - why the italics?
18 - nah it was mostly ming. He just didn’t add anything. Clegg and Huhne both know how to get in the news and will add votes a la cameron and blair and take votes from con and lab.
19 did you read the comments associated to that story on your link? The scenario we are in now suggests that banks will be heading towards some kind of regulatory bailout ie all banks will need some regulatory relief on these dubious assets. effectively an industry wide rescheduling.
I don’t rate either of the two contenders, they are just two bland middle aged men. Clegg has no where near the level of charisma required. He may look look like Cameron but Clegg, just has not got Cameron’s charisma. CK had charisma but none of the LD leadership contenders have in my view. I really think the LD leadership will only make a marginal difference.
As i said before the political tide is going out on the LD’s, just a fact of life!
Please, someone tell me this is a brilliant spoof.
http://tinyurl.com/2efsex
Can anyone provide with some advice on the Australian election- am long of labour at o.4/1 but the polls are begining to show some coalition progress and am beginning to get concerened- are these freaks or is there some genuiune movement going on.
I’m in something of a quandary. As most of you know I supported and voted for Huhne last time but am more than a little unhappy over his stance on the Trident replacement. Yes I know I’m something of a ‘hawk’ when it comes to defence policy but there you go.
Had it not been for this then I would have quite happily voted for him. Now I am more than a little undecided as I have doubts that Clegg has enough experience to be leader at this time.
So there you go, even Huhne’s 42% last time can’t be relied upon.
24- Cannot see it at work. Could you describe it?
8.13. Whoever wins the Lib-Dem leadership ought be leader for at least 2 general elections.
Thorpe (1970), Steel (1979) and Ashdown (1992) all suffered losses in seats or votes, or both, in their first elections but did much better in their second.
Charles Kennedy broke the pattern by managing to improve, twice, on the 1997 result.
24 - nope not a spoof
24. I don’t think it’s even possible to imitate delivery as poor as that. The remote controlled grin, the reeling off the names of the dear departed as though ploughing through the budget - classic Brown.
20. If the ‘best guess’ is inaccurate then the write-downs could dwarf anything the banks have admitted to so far.
Martin Day: Well of course you don’t rate either contender dear boy, you are a rabid Tory through and through and dare one say it, a ‘little blinkered’ when it comes to looking outside your ‘true blue’ cocoon!
27 guido has it on his site. brown in full “visionary” mode congratulating c4’s countdown programme on its contribution to numeracy and spelling!……… it is priceless.
27:
It’s of GB doing some bizarre eulogy of Channel 4’s Countdown. If you’re in the Gordon’s-got-the-gravitas camp it’s probably best to avoid.
32-33- Thanks. I think I will refrain my curiosity…
the French version of the show is mostly watched by half-sleeping pensioners!
34 lol! gordons target voters!
Enoch was right on the issue of Immigration - interestingly why is UK politics so devoid or so resistant to genuis? Powell did not forecast dates and times but 7/7 is the validation of his point. It is truely a tragedy for the UK that any politician or potential politician who asserts the value in what Enoch said, whether they like it or not cannot advocate a view of the future that does not meet the PC brigade.
What Powell said:
We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependants who are for the most part the material of future growth of the immigrant-descended population.
“It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre.”
As he concluded his fiery warnings on the “national danger”, Powell added the now infamous lines: “As I look ahead I am filled with foreboding.
“Like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’.”
26
Can’t see one-sided nuclear disarmament or pick which laws you wish to comply with being vote winners in middle England,probably the reverse.
36. If Enoch was here now he would be mortified at the 000,000’s coming in each year.
25 max u
Like you, I am long of Labour. I expect the gap to narrow as election day approaches but not enough to make the outcome uncertain. I will probably hedge a little, but not too much. Whilst I will continue to watch the polls carefully, I expect to make an easy £400 or so on a fairly comfortable Rudd victory.
Alexander Drake has led a small and distinguished coterie of PB advisers on this market. They have been reliable in the past. There’s no reason why they should not be again.
I think your money is safe, Max.
Gordon - toe curling!!!!
he’s crossed into parody
40. At least he is not doing anything else with his toes!
That new campaign for starting the day on a full breakfast is quite funny, you know the one where Brown is pictured in 4 pictures like a cartoon picking his nose and eating it!
:lol: 
39 - I haven’t been following it, so apologies. Is Time for A Change the ONLY real new (compared with previous elections) substantive issue driving Labour or is there something more? Because if the former i would have thought it was pretty dangerous ground.
41 - How long are you here for today?
I think that it is not just time for change that is a problem for Labour, it is the incomptence that has dogged Labour in recent months and the complete lack of direction. Where do Labour want to go? What do they want to achieve in a wholistic sense, i am buggered if i know!
44- Alex was referring to the australian election I guess.
43. About 5 hours left, so you had better F*ck off! and come back later you Cnut!
:lol: 
I remember you from the other day!
44 Erm…I think he was talking about Australia, Martin.
Still can’t spell i see.
46 And that’s not how you spell tnuc, Martin!
48. No as you say i am silly sod who does not know anything about politics who lives in the gutter and f*cks sheep as a hobby!
Maybe i should join the Liberal democrats?
49. True!
46 still trying to go against the tide i see…….
I’m sure they’d love to have you.
41. Wasn’t there a similar example in Australia, but with earwax?
52. Yes!
53. Yes i could be the new Lembit Opik or some other serious LD political player!!!
:lol: 
You sound quite keen. Perhaps one of the LibDems on here could send you an application form?
51 Tnuc - pronounced Tee Nuck - is one of those peculiar bits of backslang that are associated with Cockney Rhyming slang although they work on a different principle. I find them very useful, especially when the dratsab you are talking to doesn’t know what the bhq you are rabbiting on about.
Atb Martin.
57 not a weavers mate
BTW - I notice that the Govt have drafted in MI5 to do their bidding in advance of tomorrow’s Queen Speech. Absolutely disgraceful.
We’re not “flying blind” on the Lib Dem leadership election. Nick managed to “beat Chris” in the last contest as Ming’s deputy, even doing some of the hustings on his own without Ming. The last election was effectively Chris vs “Nick in a couple of years” and Chris LOST.
24/27.
Brown: “I wish you could have helped me on some of my budgets when I was Chancellor…. I might have got the sums right, more often…”
From the horses mouth!!!!
39
Thanks I rest assured!
61 - did he actually say that? I think that will officially qualify as a “gaffe”.
I’m told tomorrow’s Populus poll in the Times has the parties neck and neck but with Brown’s personal ratings drastically down.
61, 63. Maybe Brown should really invite Carol Vorderman to write the budget for him. Government of all the talents and all that… She couldn’t be worse than Darling.
Oh yes, and the Lib Dems up.
What I would like to ask the Lib Dems on here is why are they so quiet in the media about these statements by Lib Dem peer Lord Carlile recommending 56 days of detention without charge?
Surely this is as anti-liberal a statement as it is possible to make?
Brown’s govt is using Carlile to draw the heat and yet Lib Dems seem to think its ok for him to say it. Carlile clearly has stopped being a liberal and is more in the “hang em and flog em” brigade.
Maybe its the effects of a younger new partner? Who knows.
QUALITY!
Right wing leading it forward here!
Australia - Coalition certs to win - Coalition 92 Labor (why cant they spell it properly) 72 Ind 2 - Coalition maj 36*
* not official betting advice
I am starting to wonder at polling methodology. Neck and neck strikes me as not plausible…
64 what change on prior figures?
Last Times/ Populus poll was 6th October 2007
Con 38
Lab 40
LD 12
69 - It’s not so much the “neck and neck” bit that i find problematic. How the public react to the Tories is always a bit tricky to read. It’s the consistently high Labour scores that seem strange to me, without being partisan.
71 that was the last Populus poll or the last for the times?
Brogan says the poll shows Lab narrowing the gap, not sure how that can be if the last populus showed a Labour lead?
It could previously be explained away by a combination of Gordon’s honeymoon with middle England and the energisation of the Labour base. But I can’t believe that both of these haven’t fallen back subsequently.
73 - Probably just Ben Brogan conflating polls, IMO.
69
That’s what I was trying to say, Labour in the high 30’s does not accord with the pigs breakfast they are making of presentation and policy. To me , the sums do not add up, but it might be right. I just find it hard to fathom.
73. According to UK polling report - both (not including the Sunday Times which doesn’t use Populus)
76 - labour will be low 30s soon………
Then high 20s………………………..
Then………………..
Oi! Ben Brogan! No! Read political betting! Compare like with like!
Ey thank yew.
I’ve always suspected that the adjustments that ICM and Populus make, actively work as a dampening effect negating movements in opinion. But it’s only a hunch.
Of the three telephone pollsters using past vote weighting Populus has the most favourable methodology for Labour. Thus an ICM Labour deficit of 6% probably equals a 4-5% Labour deficit with Populus.
This is based on how they calculate the past vote element. The ComRes approach is the least favourable to Labour. So on the same numbers a ComRes 8% lead could be equal to a Populus 4-5% Tory lead.
Evening all
I’m glad Mike has picked up on some of my comments from earlier. I don’t quite accept Observer’s view at no.60 - my information is that Chris has been the more impressive at the hustings held to date. His view on Trident will resonate with a significant part of the LD membership.
Re: 72 - Alex, you have to remember that even in May 1979, after the Winter of Discontent, Labour got 36% which they didn’t approach again until 1992. While 1983 was the absolute nadir. I think Labour polled 32% in 1987 and 35% in 1992 leading to 42% or so in 1997. The Conservatives have polled below 35% for three elections consecutively. My contention is that the Labour core vote is more resilient than the (larger) Conservative core.
80
We have become a nation virtually dependant on state handouts . perhaps many people are just voting with their wallets, not on whats best for Great Britain PLC
79. Where does Brogan talk about it? I’ve just checked his blog and he’s talking about the Queen’s speech - you aving us on?
81 - it does just so how silly the whole thing is that the three pollsters quoted can all collect exactly the same data, and will produce identifiably different final results. Perhaps they could combine forces and could publish three figures for every poll - the ICM figure, the Populus figure, and the ComRes figure?
We’re not “flying blind” on the Lib Dem leadership election. Nick managed to “beat Chris” in the last contest as Ming’s deputy, even doing some of the hustings on his own without Ming. The last election was effectively Chris vs “Nick in a couple of years” and Chris LOST.
Furthermore, Chris had the opportunity of appearing to be the younger, dynamic candidate and the sensible default choice for those that felt Ming too old and/or didn’t buy into the “stabilisation” candidate concept. Neither of those factors play this time. I would expect Chris to poll less than he did last time vs Ming - and if anyone would like to wager on that - I’ll accept a bet.
84 - he’s edited it.
84 it’s in his post on the Queen’s speech, read it again a bit slower!
“bolstered by evidence that Labour are once again closing the gap (the Times tonight suggests things are tightening).”
Whereas, if Populus shows anything other than a Labour lead, the gap will in fact have widened since its last poll had Labour two points ahead, if the earlier post was correct
82 - Yes Stodge. But
a) approaching 40% is a lot more than the Labour core vote
b) it’s specifically the polls i don’t understand. I’m sure that many people would drag themselves to the polling booth. I just find it a bit difficult to believe they’re currently as enthusiastic as the polls are suggesting.
90 - Oh yeah. He hasn’t edited it.
87/88. Indeed thanks chaps - one bracketed comment - shish! Doesn’t he realise we haven’t got time to read the brackets!
;0)
75: ‘Probably just Ben Brogan conflating polls, IMO.’
Brogan is one of the Brown-is-master-tactician Brigade and can’t bring himself to accept that his man is a flop. Hence his deluded reading of this poll - he’s imagining evidence of a Brown fightback that just isn’t there.
re 86. OK how much do you want to wager on the proposition that Huhne will not get the same percentage share that he got last time?
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
Having read the Brogan piece he is just spouting the briefing he is getting from the Brown camp.
A bit lazy as he makes no attempt to compare to the appropriate poll.
That is the trouble with journalists, they often cannot be bothered to put facts into their proper context.
94 I dig Ben Brogan and I think he’s incredibly good at what he does and has the best info blog on the net. IMO he knows exactly what happened on Yellow Saturday and he blogs it. He is making a big mistake comparing a Mori and a Populus, but not everyone is a polling geek like us.
When Mike headlines the poll, the lobby will get the narrative from that and the change figures from that.
Let’s wait to see the numbers before attacking Brogan.
96 - that post is definitely Brownite spin. But Brogan gives them a small puff in exchange for info. Look how he ends the post though.
ConHome wrote that Brown’s people are on the phone to Brogan five times a day, ours much less. We need to amend that, CCHQ!
“ConHome wrote that Brown’s people are on the phone to Brogan five times a day, ours much less. We need to amend that, CCHQ!”
“Brown’s people” or “Gordon Brown”?
Mike @ 95. I’m referring to the 42.14% counting second prefs when the contest became a 2 horse affair - are we on the same page? I have £500 @ evens.
I know we’re all rightly sceptical of canvassing, but my impression from my weekly forays is that Labour’s vote disproportionately demobilised (i.e. reduced ‘certainty to vote’ more than Tory voters) after the non-election but has now stabilised again, partly because the Tories are seen to have been a bit cocky lately. My guess at the real current position is that the parties are roughly level on people who will probably vote but the Tories are a bit ahead on the ‘certain to votes’, as per MORI. Populus 40-39-17, maybe?
I’ve not been commenting much on the LD selection as it’s not my business and we all know that Tories are hoping for Huhne and Labour is hoping for Clegg, but I’m puzzled by Clegg’s promise to go to jail rather than have one, and Huhne’s not-quite-as-specific comments.
While I can see that this will appeal to members, the candidates appear to be kidding them, since nobody is proposing to make ID cards compulsory (let alone have their non-possession pubishable by jail), and both candidates must be aware of that. Is Clegg also promising never to renew his passport or driving licence (which would automatically put him on the Identity Register, but by no means compel him to have an ID card)? Maybe something to ask him when he comes here.
It is inevitable when one party are seemingly in the political ascendency that any journalist who tries to maintain an air of impartiality will be accused of being biased towards/spinning for the other side.
100 lol I bet!
“Mr Brown’s legislative programme, however dully familiar it is by now, is in effect a question: what will you do, Dave?”
This is interesting. A government briefs that it will use the Queen’s speech to ferret out opposition policy? For heaven’s sake can’t you just govern instead of being obsessed by the opposition. They are really running scared of Dave.
re 101. Agreed. Please could you email me with your real name, home address and home telephone number - many thanks.
“I’ve not been commenting much on the LD selection as it’s not my business and we all know that Tories are hoping for Huhne and Labour is hoping for Clegg, but I’m puzzled by Clegg’s promise to go to jail rather than have one, and Huhne’s not-quite-as-specific comments.”
The way i first read that, Nick, was that Clegg would rather go to jail, than have one (ie. a jail)
where’s martin gone?!
102 - I thought you were in favour of compulsory ID cards, Nick?
Mike, when will we know the populus numbers?
107 - To join the LibDems.
Mike!
Will do!! Will I get posted up the agreed wagers section and everything?! Exciting!
94/96 Do read Brogan more often - he is not a Brown is master tactician nor though is he a Cameron is the greatest. He is on the right but sceptical of politicians. The post of the Queens speech tells us exactly what he’s been briefed, honestly presented and as such really informative of Labour thinking but read the last paragraph; warning to both Cameron that he’ll need to be at his best and to Brown camp that Brogan doesn’t think they realise that the script needs to change, that July-September is as dead as a Norwegian parrot.
Glad to see the press pack picked up on the disembowelment of Darling by the Brown briefers last week - a Chancellor reduced to a cardboard cut-out. But then we can’t have someone who might take any of the gloss off the Great Leader can we.
65: Want to bet? Carol Vordermann would just advise Northern Rock to consolidate all its debts into one big loan.
Re: Benedict Brogan. I suspect he’s more cynical about Brown than he’s allowed to be by his editor.
re 102. I think that Clegg is far better for the Tories and Huhne far better for Labour.
Who’ll have most appeal to tactical voters in Lib Dem defences and marginals? I can see Labour supporters being more ready to tactically support a Huhne-led Lib Dem party than a Clegg-led one in LD>CON contests. It will work the other way in LD>LAB fights.
The range Populus have scored labour since Brown took over Labour is
L = 37 to 41
C = 31 to 38
LD = 12 to 18
110 LOL!
The Labour Party manifesto:
We will introduce ID cards, including biometric data like fingerprints, backed up by a national register and rolling out initially on a voluntary basis as people renew their passports.
Sounds like an effective proposal for compulsory ID cards to me. And definitely compulsory to anybody requiring a passport (which presumably includes Nick Clegg).
116 - It is strange. He promised he would be here for 5 hours and everything. Shame.
118 - maybe a little card has been shown in his direction a la Darren Huckerby lol
re 109. I have no idea when they will come out.
Interesting that the last time the Tories were ahead with Populus was at the start of June, three weeks before Brown took over.
In two surveys since the Tory conference Populus has recorded Labour leads.
Of course who the Brownie spinner feeds this to. Direct to Brogan or through Dacre?
I wonder how the Times feels that the Brown camp are leaking these things to other papers early?
Re the favourable nature of Populus for Labour.
Noticed on the last Populus poll that Labour scored 60% in the Scottish votes. All the others were well down on the last Scottish Westminster poll (Yougov?) (Con -4, LD -6, SNP -11) I know this is not necessarily indicative but perhaps might have had an affect?
121 - why would the Brown camp know the results of a Times poll, unless it was leaked to them?
123 - had the 14% Labour poll been leaked to Labour, wouldn’t we have had a GE? Can we assume that one was not leaked?
124 - Sorry it’s getting late. Far too many negatives in that sentence for me to follow it
I was just saying that the Times could hardly complain about Brown leaking a poll result to a rival journalist, if they had leaked it to Brown in the first place.
124 - labour on 14% LOL. Thats next year isnt it?
Populus figures - Lab 37 (-1) Con 36 (-4), LD 16 (+4). Changes from October poll.
Article here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article2814068.ece
121/125 very much doubt Brogan had leak from Brown camp - most likely a fellow journalist but one in News International.
127 - clearly the Cable bounce.
126 -
- oops! I had missed out the word “lead”.
Actually that’s -3/-2/+4, but good enough anyway.
So Brown’s ratings are falling consistently, Cameron’s are rising, but the Conservatives are doing worse overall. Nope, they make no sense.
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh labour are ahead!
Maybe liverpool will get through in the champions league after all!
Oops. Misled by Stodge’s poor grasp of figures
Thanks for the clarification Nick!
Apparently the difference between Lab/Con is two voters. Not really sure how they justified giving Labour a lead on that basis!
It’s an equal opportunity poll extravaganza - every other poll will show a 1 point lead for Labour, alternating with a 6 to 8% lead for Tories. Lib Dems will jump between 13 & 16%.
Thus the Pb.com tipsters & betters can have a field day, Labour gets crowing rights for a few days then the Tories while Lib Dems can cry “in real votes however”…
have the betting markets gapped after this shock poll? thought not
Any comment on 117, Nick. Are ID cards not going to be compulsory with passport renewal?
Mike, do Populus/The Times accept that their weighting basis is institutionally unfavourable to the Tories compared to ICM? If so is it not a little surprising that they are happy with that considering past history?
What a total load of b****.
Shows gap narrowing in Con favour, but still, tosh.
137 - I doubt anyone but a few wonks have seen the poll so far…
I’ve been away working so I’ve been as up to the minute on politics as I suspect 99% of the population are at any given time. Nonetheless a few thoughts through the mists of ‘action’ ‘ cut’ and getting down on all fours to see it from the clients point of view……
A dispiriting time to be a Labour supporter. Are Labour still looking for the moral high ground or have they given it all up in favour of the Essex taxi driver vote that Michael Howard cleaned up in 2005? I just can’t see where Brown is heading.
So what of Cameron? Maybe it’s spending too much time in their company but I see him as an ad agency Account Director whose client is the Conservative Party. I don’t see him as a leader or even that he’s suited to being one- just a salesman.
He’s tried several campaigns which have bombed but in the best tradition of account directors he gave a masterful pitch to his clients-without notes-and convinced them that he should be given another shot. As ever they bought it!
Will this approach win his client victory? Frankly I doubt it. Selling is important but not nearly as important as the product. When he took over the account the brand was tired. It still is. All he’s done is raise his own profile.
142 “…And getting down on all fours to see it from the clients’ point of view……”
Roger! Just exactly what sort of clients do you have?
138 Alex. Don’t hold your breath. Nick is a firm believer in ID cards. The trouble is that he knows that most of us on here don’t share his opinion. Therefore, any discussion would be fruitless.
Myself - I loathe the idea of ID cards, and think that the money would be better spent on conventional security measures.
142 was a rocking horse involved?
142 welcome back. Basically tories are winning labour are losing
139: Populus will certainly accept that their weighting is slightly more favourable to Labour than ICM’s (for once it is a very straightforward difference. Populus weight to a point halfway between their average recalled vote and the actual 2005 election result, ICM weight to a point 70% of the way towards the actual result compared to their average recalled vote. The effect being that Populus weight the Tories a bit lower and Labour a bit higher).
The reason Populus do it, of course, is not that they think it is biased and accept it, it’s that they think it is right and (presumably) that ICM are producing figures too flattering to the Tories.
PS. I don’t find this poll particularly surprising. I’m not sure what you Tories have been whispering in each others ear but in the real world I wouldn’t say there is any more enthusiasm for Cameron’s Conservatives than for Brown’s Labour Party and a lot of the negativity of his ‘election that wasn’t’ has now disappeared into the ether.
PB.COM SPICE GIRLS UPDATE
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Seen the new video for the second time. Its still shyte. Mel C still needs it (no change there since 1986) but apart from that its a bit #.
149 clarification - er since 1996!
142: ‘…have they given it all up in favour of the Essex taxi driver vote that Michael Howard cleaned up in 2005? I just can’t see where Brown is heading.’
The writing was on the wall with the low populism of Brown’s Bournemouth speech, Roger. I said so at the time, but you chose to mock me and not heed my warnings. Don’t worry, I won’t demand an apology.
149. Spice Girls were at their best when the Tories were in power.
Hey Roger is back!
I thought he had returned to his Coffin.
152 - music sounds better with tories……
152 Spice Girls were at their best when the Tories were in power.
Not only the Spice Girls… The Police, Pensions, NHS, Defence, Immigration Controls, Pay, Housing Affordability…
142 working hard to make up for the losses on Barclays?
OT. Australian Federal election. A new Newspoll out today (Tuesday) is being headlined here as good news for Howard’s Coalition. It has the TPP result as 53:47 to the ALP and we are being told that this is a “movement” to the Coalition. However, it is no such thing. It was conducted in 18 marginal seats only, so (a) there are no comparable figures, and (b) if the ALP is leading 53:47 in marginals, then they are sailing very comfortably towards victory.
The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) are to decide on an interest rate rise (or not) today, with the announcement set for Wednesday here. All economists are expecting one. One of Howards’s main clarion calls last time around was that interest rates are lower with the Coalition, so if you wake up on Wednesday to the news that rates are up, you’ll know that it’s game over for Howard.
Mike. Watching your brother’s ‘Deep water’ on Channel4. Excellent documentary.
Kingbongo. Keep buying it’s my only chance!
157 - yes the Coalition are going to win. super howard
156 - lol
Anyone know the dates of the poll and the sample size? So, Labour have moved back into the lead then!
I just don’t believe the poll, Its an interesting question as to whether the people who actually run the polls actually believe their results, or for that matter those who commission them (evidenced by the Observer (wasnt it???) poll that was not publicised . Just because poll numbers are close , does not IMHO mean they are any more accurate.
This is a copy of the latest letter I have received from Chris Huhne campaign HQ. I think Chris is being very clear about his objectives should he succeed. So far on the evidence I am aware of I would say overall Chris’ “skills as a communicator” are as good if not better than Nick’s!
Dear friend,
I hope you will agree with me that Britain needs nothing less than a Liberal Revolution: a revolution in democracy, a revolution for social justice, and a revolution in global change.
I have launched a manifesto to outline my vision for our party and our country. It is not just a list of policy ideas: it is a statement of intent. I want liberal values to define British politics in the twenty first century. You can read my manifesto online at http://www.chris2win.org and sign up as a supporter.
I want to give members fair warning that my leadership will be about ambition and a willingness to take risks. Trust me that these risks are worth taking; the boldest measures are often the safest.
The last thing our party should do is shift to the soggy centre, where Labour and the Tories fight on ground that’s crass, callow and conservative. I’m not that kind of person and I won’t be that kind of leader.
We need a democratic revolution, introducing a people’s veto that has successfully restored faith for voters in other countries. I give you my word that I would not enter into any coalition without the promise of proportional representation.
We need a society that returns power to individuals and gives them control over their own lives. I make plain my commitment to equality and a liberal state; I have clearly dismissed the use of competition in public services. We do not need American-style health insurance and school vouchers. Real improvements in health and education will come from local control and local accountability; not market solutions.
And we need a revolution in global change. We need to restore our name in the world, and we don’t need another Trident-scale nuclear missile system. We must get binding international agreements on climate change and biodiversity.
We will make the call loud and clear to change the country we love, not just run it. We will inject our energy and our ideas into the political system. We will build a grassroots movement of liberals within this party and outside it.
Give me your support and I will lead nothing less a Liberal Revolution for the British people.
Yours,
Chris.
P.S: Take a look at my manifesto at http://www.chris2win.org, and please do sign up as a supporter!
–
Chris Huhne MP
Liberal Democrat Leadership Candidate
157 Stephen
Thanks for these little snippets re Australia. It should be a pleasantly profitable election for PBers.
Keep up to date with Australia 2007 with skillful insight from London: http://www.pollbludger.com/681?cp=4
New thread on Populus
re 161. Polling would have been from Friday until Sunday. Labour were in the lead from Populus and they remain so but with a reduced margin.
114 - Hurray, at last someone agreeing with me that Clegg will boost the tories more!
The new campaign group Progressive Vision is conducting a poll of Liberal Democrat activists and PPCs in the form of an internet survey. They ask three questions about tax, but the fourth question is on Clegg v Huhne. I’ve asked them when they will release any results, but have not had a reply.
24 etc. That message of congratulations from Gordon Brown to Countdown on its 25th anniversary last Friday was just one of many from celebrities which were broadcast in between each round. The others were from the cast of Emnmerdale, the cast of Coronation Street, Julie Andrews, Amir Khan, Patrick Moore, Lord Attenborough, Terry Wogan, Rory Bremner (as Gordon Brown), Thingy, Whatsisname, and whoever else I can’t remember.
It was always Clegg’s to lose, in the same way that the Conservative contest was made for David Davis, although he blew his campaign without too much assistance from anyone else. Clegg will certainly catch the voters’ eye more with his easy media-friendly style, but it’s hard to measure how much substance he will bring along with that.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
169 - “conducting a poll of Liberal Democrat activists and PPCs in the form of an internet survey.”
Something similar was done in the last leadership race but it doesn’t necessarily show what will really happen. Last time the poll showed that Chris Huhne was ahead, and he probably was amongst PPCs and activists as many of them weren’t keen on Ming. Similarly when Charles Kennedy was elected, very few activists voted for him.
What you need to poll is the armchair member, (who as in all parties make up the majority of the electorate), but that is almost impossible to do, especially when doing internet polling as they tend to be self-selecting political activists.
For what it’s worth, my perception from talking to members is that you cannot really assume anything from last time’s result. I know people who backed Huhne last time because they didn’t want Ming but this time prefer Clegg. However some Ming supporters have now switched to Huhne over Trident. As for Hughes supporters, who knows? They tend to be anti-Trident types, but may also be swung by Hughes’ support for Clegg. What is less clear though is who the activists are backing as last time they mainly went for Huhne, whereas this time it seems less clear cut.
172. Andy, I agree with you on the big difference between activists and armchair members But a poll of the former presumably carries some weight - e.g. if one candidate is leading amongst activists by a huge margin. I think the same goes for endorsements from MPs. Clegg is well ahead here, and whilt that is by no means definitive, it probably justifies him being favourite in the absence of much other statistical info.