Is Gord on to a winner with this?
November 7th, 2007
Or could more flexible working just alienate the childless?
Generally the most reliable guide to what the Brown political machine is up to is in The Mole column in the First Post online magazine. And yesterday while everybody was talking about how the leaders performed “The Mole” was reporting that the plans to extend flexible working for people with children was what would “grab the headlines in the morning.”
Certainly the idea has caught the attention of the Times and the Guardian - both of which lead on it this morning. No doubt the Number 10 spin machine was working hard yesterday afternoon trying to get the papers to make this their lead point.
Politics is all about finding dividing lines and this is where Brown is a master. For more flexible working for parents could be a tricky one for the Tories to handle because, inevitably, it will make things more difficult for employers.
The Mail is covering this aspect of the speech with a claim by the Tories that this is another policy that has been “nicked” from them.
There is a political danger in pursuing flexible working - those without kids can feel that they are being discriminated against and this can often cause serious tensions in work places.
In my job one of the biggest managerial challenges in recent years has been dealing with those without children who can often feel very angry that they are made to re-arrange their working lives to fit in with colleagues who have families. The comment “nobody made them have children” is something you hear often and with some passion.
So how is all this going to shape up? Hopefully we’ll get some weekend polls.
Mike Smithson
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Flexible working? Employers will need to offer more money to those who have to fill the gaps, and doubtless that will lead in turn to discrimination claims, or pay overtime or use temps and part-timers to fill the gaps (thus creating more jobs).
In political terms, though, I suspect some sort of consensus will have emerged by the next election, as with the appropriate level of spending for the first few years, especially as the Tories say it was their idea in the first place.
I’m not sure raising the school leaving age to 18 will be very popular with those who are affected by it, either directly or because their own offspring now have to study alongside people who would really rather not be there, but if definitions are loose enough and we are really talking about watered down apprenticeships, all will be well.
Money, and the lack of it, may still be the biggest issue though, and I’ll be watching the retail sales figures and the lottery (which I think is a good guide to discretionary spending). There is also the risk of businesses going bust in a credit crunch.
It looks like ID cards may be punted into the long grass not because Brown cares very much about civil liberties but because he has better uses for the money, like building new towns (hopefully in deprived areas (like parts of the north) which need an economic stimulus).
On presentation (health warning: I didn’t watch the whole thing live) Gordon Brown must be reminded to be Prime Ministerial. Stay calm and don’t shout: the microphones will pick up his voice over all the noise. David Cameron should remember that too.
o/t: Dollar in freefall, heading for £=$2.10, gold $835/oz…
3 - Serious correction at 2.30am for some reason.
Oh i see. China says that its going to sell dollars.
Flexible working – very significant because it shows Gordo is finally picking up the “quality of life” agenda which should come naturally to all socialists – the rejection of crass materialism etc - but where strangely Dave, in at least in his batty, Fotherington-Thomas sort of way, has up to now been ahead of him.
I think your comment about “managerial challenges” is rather odd! Childless people can of course benefit from flexible working too - those who are looking after ailing parents for instance. Or people who want to use their leisure time more flexibly so that they can do more, get away for long weekends etc.
4. Maybe this
http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/44308/Australasian-Investment-Review.html
6 - But these proposals are just about parents, aren’t they? Can’t see any reason why parents with secondary age children should have rights over those with no children, personally.
O?T With the Dollar falling and the Governor in trouble, what chance of an interest rate cut - to reduce the $/£ rate and restore Mr Kings relations with the Chancellor?
The fact that it would be good for the real economy would be irrelevant to the BoE but a bonus for the rest of us!
Current Betfair rates 0.5% cut 110; 0.25% cut 5.0; Stay the same 1.23.
I have had £40 on a 25 point cut and £2 on a 50 point cut (which I may increase).
“those without kids can feel that they are being discriminated against” - that is because those without kids are being discriminated against. Whether that’s justifiable or not will generally depend on the how the organisation for which the employee works handles requests for flexible working.
There may well be a dividing line here between public and private sectors. There is often a different attitude towards the ‘company’ in terms of the willingness of staff to put in requests for things like flexible working (and the attitude of others towards those that do) between employees in private businesses - especially smallish ones - and the public sector. There is also a substantial difference in union representation between the two sectors, and between the respective managements’ behaviour to requests.
This proposal looks to me like an attempt to keep the public-sector employees ‘on-side’, possibly in the face of further low pay rises in the future. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.
I heard two distinctly different views of yesterday. One was that Brown was hopeless and he’s not cut out to be PM and very probably doesn’t even want the job and another that he’s started to look Prime Ministerial again.
I think the different styles of Brown and Cameron were more more on show yesterday than we’ve seen before. Brown though clumsy and slow on his feet does have a certain solidity. On reflection I don’t think he’ll be disappointed with yesterday.
Cameron’s articulacy makes him rather impressive when looked at in full but the clips on the news were not as as effective. He has to be careful not to come across as a smart alec which yesterday wasn’t very attractive.
11 Roger IMHO its because expectations of Brown’s performance in the HoC are now so low that any small improvement is grasped as prime ministerial. Labour supporters must watch each PMQs and set piece desperately hoping he will cease to be a rabbit in the headlights and show some leadership.
Simon Hoggart says it best “Golly, he was dull. He bangs on about vision, but if Joan of Arc’s vision had been as dreary, France would still be English. He began to lose the House. The Speaker told MPs not to hold private conversations - some between members of the cabinet.”
No, what Brown needs is a period of quiet without clever wheezes where ministers can get on with the job - as they claim to be but many don’t actually don’t seem to be doing - much like he enjoyed in the summer. He needs to stop calling them every morning, to ignore the press reports, to stop intervening and give some limelight to his front bench. Trouble is events and the higher profile required from a PM won’t let that happen until next summer.
A vote winner?
I think I will give that nice lady at the Polish Employment Agency a phone call. I do not believe that flexible working time is top of the agenda amongst her workers. Hard work most certainly is. There is however a lot of flexible working time amongst my British workers already. Its the ‘can’t be arsed to get out of bed’ type of flexible working time which is why I am determined to replace as many of the idle sods as possible.
We need more immigrant workers. They pay the taxes that keep a whole generation of ill-educated, worthless youths on benefits.
For once I actually watched what was going on istead of relying on what is posted on this site!
DC was very good in his speech, but I thought GB was also very good. Gordon effectively nailed Cameron on a number os issues, especially flexible working, when he reminded the house that FAR from being a Tory idea (bullshit!), Cammy had voted against every flexible working initiative Labour has proposed. How can you be in favour of flexible working when you take paternity leave for yourself but had voted to deny it to other fathers? How can the shadow Housing Minister be against building new homes, or Gove be against opportunities for all? Loved the line about DC stating to one audience that more housing should be built, but then saying exactly the opposite to another audience!
DC came back with what at first I thought was an effective jibe, but he came across as cocky and smarmy and the over-excited white, middle aged rich poshboys on the front bench with him looked *very* unattractive.
Score draw in my book. DC is an excellent performer, but that’s all he is - a performer. Gordon should learn to rise above the petty jibes (no more Punch and Judy, eh?), which I’m sure he will.
Agree totally with Mike’s last comment. As someone who is currently working all hours possible I know that I would not be expected to do so if I had ‘a family’.
All parties do it, but any government that goes down that line is causing great division.
Flexible hours - great in theory but quite, quite unworkable in practice. Could somebody actually give me an example of a few industires where this could work and how it would work? Persumably not in teaching. I finish work (well, I finish teaching) at 3.30pm yet my children get out of school at 3.10. Can I be allowed not to teach period 5 in order to pick them up? Of course not.
And Mike is right about the fury of childless and empty-nesters on this issue. My best friend is a doctor in A&E and, because he and his wife have no children, is always dumped with the worst hours. He hates it!
16
Flexible hours for parents are quite allowable if they are prepared to take a pay cut for the privilege. Otherwise it’s indefensible .
And will be self defeating….
I think it’ll be a popular proposal, though it’s at an early stage (consultation with business and other groups). alex is correct that the proposal as currently framed is about parents, though I think the idea of extending to family issues more generally is attractive. In general, colleagues will be reasonably sympathetic and employers like to be helpful if it’s not too disruptive - the cost of a more flexible working pattern is a lot less than putting wages up.
There’s a parallel with maternity leave. I used to have a colleague (in a group with five staff) who had four babies in successive years. Her employer did admit privately that he hoped she wasn’t going to keep this up indefinitely, and that’s what those of us who had to fill the gap felt too. But none of us really questioned the idea of maternity leave.
The other area ripe for a rethink is flexible retirement. It’s pretty daft for various obvious reasons that many, probably most, people go from 100% working to 0% overnight, but there are numerous institutional hurdles from company rules to pension fund regulations to the lack of knowledge of how far national pensions can be rolled over to extra admin for small businesses in having several part-time staff that make it almost impractical.
Oh, and just on a point of information, GB is not planning to kick ID cards into the long grass. You can rely on me when I say this sort of thing - I don’t say anything I know not to be true.
How can there be a law to require flexibility? It is an oxymoron. This is typical of Brown.
Flexible working only really works when everyone can do it. Letting one section of the workforce do it and effectively penalising the rest will only lead to more and greater problems.
The company I work for has had flexible working for a number of years but how it works for individuals is dependent upon type of job and ability to cover so-called “core” hours. There always has to be a bit of give and take between the nature of the job and reality. Some employers would be hard pressed to provide flexible working because of the type of work performed and the actual nature of the business. Unfortunately most of the people in public sector jobs who are getting smaller rises will be exactly the sort of people whose jobs are difficult to cover with flexible working.
Rather than regulation it would be better to push/advertise the benefits of flexible working to all employers with a happier and less stressed workforce. It doesn’t depend on Union representation, private/public, small/large it just requires common sense from both employers and employees. I repeat how can there be a law to require flexibility?
The main thing about flexible working is it only really works when there is trust between employees and employers. If there is no trust then it will fail at the first hurdle, this would almost certainly be the case if only employees with kids were allowed flexible working. All the other “special” cases like people with elderly parents, invalid partners etc will justifiably feel excluded.
Antony Little at 16: you seem not to be aware that the system is already in place for parents with young children (the proposal is to extend it to parents of older ones), and is generally supported by employers (see the Times piece)? Do Conservatives feel that should be abolished?
Basically it’s a right to ask and have it granted if it’s practical and the circumstances are reasonable - one of those fuzzy areas of employment law that work because tribunals take a common-sense view of what is practical.
14. Good point from Flump (I was out yesterday afternoon and couldn’t watch the exchange myself) - the Tories of course voted against the flexible working measures associated with the Social Chapter, and even now are pledged to withdraw from it.
Sorry I was wrong on my previous point 6 - the measures are, I read, aimed specifically at parents and Mike is correct about the possible challenges in the workplace that this might bring. I hope that this will be clarified in the consultation period, because if you’re interested in good family life then that has to include looking after parents as well as children.
See the independent report on providing possible tax breaks for carers that a consortium of large employers has proposed today. http://tinyurl.com/38xt6b
Important that there is some joined-up thinking on this.
Good employers already provide forms of flexible working that benefit everyone - e.g. the staff of the firm where my son works were allowed to vote for an early Friday finish which benefits parents and childless employees alike.
21 - Dave believes he “invented” the idea of flexible working! What a cheek. He spoke a few platitiudes after seeing the operation at Asda and how they do it. What he neglects to mention is that he wants the UK to withdraw from the Social Chapter (putting at risk holiday entitlement for millions of people) and also that Ads is controlled by the notoriously union-busting outfit WalMart. In effect, he is saying that if a company does it, then fine. But we are not going to make anyone comply with basic family-friendly practices.
14. You obviously didn’t see the news bulletins, which all focused on ‘Shaking Gordon’s’ vibrating hand, and zeroed in on how flustered he was. Both BBC and ITV news portrayed his performance as distinctly underwhelming - and that’s what matters.
Score draw my a***.
Q: How to encourage flexibility by employers?
A: Create a situation where good employers drive out the bad.
How? Think of it in economic terms like the money supply and inflation. Too much money and we get inflation. Too many employees seeking work and we get bad working conditions.
It starts with increasing the value of employees to employers. Where good workers are in short supply, employers fight over getting good workers and will modify how they operate to attract and retain them. Only the best employers will thrive in those situations.
But when workers are not in short supply because for example of immigration, the wages and the conditions will be driven down and bad employers will tend to thrive.
Ironic that the party set up to enhance workers rights and conditions, has through the mismanagement of immigration impaired workers conditions. Fix the market supply of Labour and the problem for families will be solved more effectively than by legislation.
23 - We must have watched different news then!
O/T - very nice to see that SeanT is back.
Meanwhile Labour starts to pay the price for its lies over Northern Rock, in particular its foolish attempts to spin against the Bank of England…
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2821112.ece
25. I too am delighted to see seanT back amongst us.
Apparently over 50 local authorities have shown interest in having one of the first 10 eco-towns. I wonder how many of these are Conservative? How will that go down with the leadership?
Sterling blasts through $2.10, gold=$845
On children, if someone makes a concious decision not to have children, fine! But it should be remembered, that having children ensures society endures. So the work place, should be skewed in favour of those who produce the next generation of taxpayers, if nothing else. Wish felxible working had been around when I had my kids.
Thought GB did ok yesterday, started slow, seemed to get quite passionate, lost it a bit at the end. Defence of your position is always more difficult than attack. Cameron, who has superior debating skills, (well he is a PR man after all) is in danger of coming across as smug.
I thought Jack Straw looked vacant, but David Davis capped that, he’s obviously retired. Alan Duncan, jumping up and down, screaming and slapping his thigh, just looked a total prat!!
Picking up from Mike’s article about the issue of resentment, this arises where people are being treated in an inequitable manner.
Why should a parent have a benefit paid for by an employer that a single person does not? Creating a cost of “employing a parent” will impair the employability of a parent something which no legislation will stop.
Single immigrants will thus become more employable than British parents.
For parents the answer lies in employers and the type of work that has flexibility at the heart of its operation. Not every employer can do this, but the problem is one of how can most employers be encouraged to do it? Because the Govt tells them? The easier option is not to employ parents.
I have no idea what news you were watching then RedFlump - I appear to have watched the same two bulletins as Aunt Sally
Oh! tried to get on a shopping flight to New York, full up!!
My son who has just returned from NY, says that you’d better get there quick before the Brits have bought everything up.
Obviously ten years of groaning under the yoke of socialism have reduced the British to poverty.
Some very interesting comments - a thread that’s shown PB at its best. As so often, I think David Herdson’s on to something. There are some sectors of the economy (health care springs imediately to mind) where it makes sense to “invest in people” and others (such as coffee bars) where it doesn’t. These don’t map exactly onto the public and private sectors, but there’s a reasonable fit.
I suspect the crunch will come over providing housing for public sector workers, especially in the south-east of England. The government may well want to use some of the new housing money for this purpose, and the mechanisms (shared ownership, housing co-ops etc are all well understood), but there is a nice question of “narrative”.
To old lefties like me it’s plain common sense - we can’t afford to pay them enough to get on the housing ladder in a conventional sense, and current housing priorities are producing a social housing sector which has an unsustainably high number of people with mental health problems in it - public sector workers could “ballast” such communities.
OTOH, if you’re a Blue Harpy, it’s favouring Labour’s “core vote” of pampered bureaucrats at the expense of “real people”.
Most wise large private sector employers have had to offer flexible working for years to attract staff; the last thing they need is yet another raft of pointless state interference.
The only people who benefit from all these statutory flexible working initiatives are *some* public service workers, specifically middle managers in local authorities, who are already amongst the most mollycoddled in the land with final salary pensions, 35 hour working *and* market leading salaries, - no doubt they will be delighted.
As for the ordinary working person on hourly rate and struggling to meet their increased mortgage and finance bills, their rising water rates, council tax and fuel bills I should think what they want most is the ‘flexibility’ to ignore the working time directive that is limiting their overtime.
32. ‘Mary Hinge’. If by any chance you also post as ‘Aunt Sally’ I would strongly suggest a trip to the psychiatrist!
34, The coming house price crash will remove the problem of housing shortages for public sector employees in the south east.
31 - being a parent does involve compromises. In the real world, whether an employer is parent-friendly or not will influence job applicants who have children or are planning to have children. If the employer believes it is worth being able to appeal to such potential employees (and in a professional context it usually is), they’ll be flexible. But that should be their choice.
Now, if the government believe that encouraging people to have children is a worthwhile goal (and, as per Coldstone above, there is a strong argument for this), they can provide incentives, either through the personal tax system or some kind of direct incentive to employers to encourage the adoption of flexible working practices. Then we can have an honest public debate about whether the current generation of taxpayers believe it is worth subsidising the creation of the next.
36. I don’t, Roger. I’m a frequent reader, less frequent poster.
35. …. Or a payrise.
274 previous thread “This is a disaster for the Tories ”
Gabble is pinching your lines, Roger. This is the price you pay for extended absences.
39 Mary Hinge?!! Love it.
Did you know that Julie Cecil once had a racehorse of that name, and another called Joe Blob? They both ran under those monikers until somebody pointed it out to the Stewards and she was obliged to change them.
35
As for the ordinary working person on hourly rate and struggling to meet their increased mortgage and finance bills, their rising water rates, council tax and fuel bills I should think what they want most is the ‘flexibility’ to ignore the working time directive that is limiting their overtime.
Ah yes, of course none of those things ever went up under the Tories did they Marcus?
Mortgages, rock bottom they were, with interest rates at 12%
Water rates, well all those private comapanies you Tories created, South West water, what benefit they have been to the people down there. A company so beloved of the residents of the SW, their employees were once warned not to wear their uniforms out on the street.
Council tax introduced by a Tory government, when it screwed up the Poll tax. Of course the woman who led the Poll Tax revolt lived in Paignton, didn’t she? Go find her Marcus, discuss it with her!
As for housing in Torbay, well how can the locals compete against all these incomers, from places like errr Windsor.
30 “Defence of your position is always more difficult than attack.”
Surely, that shouldn’t be so when you are selling your “vision”? The guy has sat next to Blair for ten years, listening to Queen’s Speech after Queen’s Speech, but supremely self-confident that he could do a better job himself. This should have been the crowning moment of his career - the time when he truly gets to set the legislative agenda. He shouldn’t be on the back foot, uncertain, defensive - he should be selling his exciting adventure, the prospect for a glittering new age….okay, so perhaps he didn’t believe it either!
Morning all
It’s an interesting and obviously emotive issue. To be honest, it all depends what we mean by “flexible”. In much of the public sector AND in many large private sector companies, the concept of flexibility has existed for some time.
It takes many forms - it allows parents to balance childcare arrangements, it also allows carers to work. To be fair to David Cameron, he did talk about “worklife balance” some time ago and this is part of it. I’ve always believed that I work to live, I don’t live to work. That said, the cosy era of 9-5 Monday to Friday no longer exists for many millions of workers.
Marcus takes the not unreasonable view that people should be allowed to work the hours they want but there is of course coercion from two sides - one is the need or desire to improve living standards and the others is or are the demands of the employer. A mechanism by which individuals do not feel compelled to work when they don’t want to must be desirable - to clear away protection for employees sounds like the shrill Thatcherite mantras of an earlier age.
I have never understood why everybody goes to work at the same time as children start school and I’ve never understood why we are in a position that means that Mrs Stodge, who would quite happily work 11-7 if she could, can’t. In some respects, steps have been taken - longer shop opening hours for example but there is huge cultural resistance to changes in working patterns.
BT did this a few years ago at one of their HQ buildings - longer hours, a staff-to-desk ratio which encouraged different hours of work and what happened ? Everyone came in at 9, went home at 5 and had lunch at 1. There is an ingrained sense of when we should be at work and when we shouldn’t be which mitigates against either voluntary or statutory arrangements. That said, increasing congestion on public transport and roads means we can’t give up.
By the by, flexibility for me encompasses concepts such as homeworking and telecottages, the latter being a way to reinvigorate the suburban and rural economies. It doesn’t replace the social interaction of work but even to avoid the commute once a week would doubtless be welcomed by many.
Thanks for your concern over my copyright fr but I don’t recognize the style. I try to avoid the dramatic. He’s certainly plagiarizing my thoughts though!
44
If any politician, from any political party tried to sell me the prospect of, ‘a glittering new age’ I’d piss myself laughing.
Enhanced flexible working is a dangerous double-edged sword. It will allow a very small number of people back into work, but will force other workers to cover for them when they don’t want to work. It will be popular with a few people and very unpopular with another group.
Economically, it is also double-edged. Increased flexibility in working hours automatically reduces productivity, by creating problems of coverage at unsocial times, distracting mangement from other tasks, etc. On the other hand, it will get a very small number of people off benefits. Given this nation’s notoriously low productivity, this is a considerable gamble by the Government.
This is either a very clever idea, or a crass one. Until some independent statistics are produced on the relative numbers of voters pleased/annoyed, it will be impossible to say whether is good politics or bad.
Similarly, it will be some time (years?), until we can see whether this is economic genius or short-sighted incompetence. Overall, one has to say that the more governments interfere in company management, the worse the economy performs, so the balance of probabilities are not in Brown’s favour.
33 Yes - anyone who thinks people aren’t doing pretty well financially should try going to IKEA in Croydon - I tried it a couple of weeks ago - the (massive) car park was full and there was nearly a mile of traffic waiting to get in. Hard up we are not. But we do feel hard-worked, and this flexibility proposal might well strike a chord.
Re: 33 - Indeed, when Mrs Stodge and I were in the US in September, the shopping malls in San Diego and Las Vegas were full of British people. I’m not at all surprised people are going Xmas shopping in New York and Boston.
One or two decent headlines in a couple of today’s papers and our resident Brownites are full of bravado again.
Meanwhile, out in the real world, Brown was soundly beaten again in Common’s exchanges, and, disturbingly, through shaking hands, displayed a fragility that I cannot recall ever seeing before in a Prime Minister. Perhaps that senior No 10 adviser who suggested that he would be the first PM to crack up on the job will be proved right?
Whatever the state of Brown’s mental health is I guarantee it will become consideably worse throughout 2008 as the debt-fuelled UK economy is rocked by the coming economic storm, house prices crash, and recession engulfs us. Brown claimed the credit during the good times when people were spending like there’s no tomorrow so now “tomorrow’s” arrived he can take the opprobrium.
44 Mark, the man sat next to Blair but did not stand in for him and thus did not learn how to perform. Even in his Finance questions, Brown just ducked out of the difficult questions. Mike made this recommendation for Chris & Nick to be tested during their LD Leadership election.
A wise way to have “brought Brown along” would have been for him to have become Deputy PM a year or more ago and then had some PMQs with Hague.
Re: 37 & 52: I see the Tory doom-mongers are out wringing their hands with glee at the prospect of a house price “crash”. I suppose the fact that the Government won an election in the middle of a housing recession in 1992 doesn’t temper their optimism at all.
I don’t know about a “crash” - however that is defined. A slowdown certainly and some falls perhaps but if you had told people in 1996 what property would cost in 2007 they wouldn’t believe you
50
I was in NY last November, I was amazed, Brits everywhere, buying everything. I couldn’t get through the foyer of the Hotel, for shopping bags.
51
That maybe true! but what is Cameron going to do to stop it? Perhaps bang up interest rates into double figures, like last time?
52
You are absolutely right. Brown has always ducked the difficult encounters and is paying for it now that there’s nowhere to hide.
Ironic isn’t it that a man with such a noticeable yellow streak writes books on courage?
I wonder how much longer he’ll last? I give him upto a year before he steps down with “health problems”.
Peter. I thought you would point that out! I think Dr Spooner of Wetherbys advised renaming, at least in Mary’s case?
51 - Ahh, so this is the new line from CCHQ then is it? Having failed to correctly call economic meltdown for the last 10 years, they are now playing the man and not the ball by saying Gordon is somehow mentally “unfit” to be PM, that his mental and physical health will deteriorate etc etc. This is a pathetic strategy. Where is the Conservative narrative for gorvernment? Is this all you have, trashing your opponent? Say what you like about the government - there is a strong package of measures in the QS that will go down well with many across the wountry. What do the opposition have? Cocky taunts and smears.
51. Could Brown have Parkinson’s? or perhaps another condition that leads to uncontrollable shaking? I found the footage of his shaking hand very worrying…
54 Cameron is not going to do anything “to stop it”. How can he? He’s not in charge of running the economy is he?
In case it had escaped your notice Brown is still PM and Darling is Chancellor, so what are they going to do to stop it?
It amazes me how obsessed you Brownites are with the Tories. You are the government yet you behave like an opposition.
$2.1050
57 redflump
It wasn’t the Tories who first questioned Brown’s mental state. It was Campbell (Ali not Ming) who called him psychologically flawed, and that senior No 10 adviser who sugested he would crack up on the job.
I hate to say it but it appears the odious Campbell may have been right.
55 “I wonder how much longer he’ll last? I give him upto a year before he steps down with “health problems”.”
Political hatchet men -
Tories = Men in Grey Suits
Labour = Men in White Coats
58- There are many other things that can cause shaking hands… stress for example!
As for Parkinson, there are other symptomes that Brown is not showing at all. And anyway, the late pope John Paul II proved that you can be in one of the most demanding jobs in the world while suffering of this disease for years.
Oh, and LibDems = Vandals in Sandals?
51/53 Yes the Conservative doom and gloomsters are out in force again predicting apocalypse 2008 . Will any of them actually put there money where there doom laden forecasts are . I have £ 50 that says there will not be a recession in 2008 ( the accepted definition of 2 consecutive quarters of falling GDP ) and a further £ 50 that there will be no house price crash ( my definition a fall in average house prices of 25% ) in 2008 . So come on voxpop and other doomsters - put up or shut up .
59
When Cameron becomes PM, what will he do, to stop people taking on debt? simple question, simple answer please.
When the UK went on a binge back in the eighties, the man responsible for it, ‘Nigel Lawson’ was described as,’My brilliant chancellor’ by Mrs T. no thoughts then of the consequences.
No wonder Labour are in such a good position in the middle of a third term. The Tories have effectively *nothing* to counter solid policy proposals other than to throw mud at their opponents. Pathetic. Come on, let’s discuss *policy*, not some phantom illness some Tories hope that Gordon is suffering from.
60 et al on the issue of the weak dollar - forgive the ignorant question but given that oil is priced in dollars, does a rising pound vs the dollar mean that oil price rises are not felt as strongly here?
67. But I’m genuinely very worried about the man’s health. He looks awful. I suppose the lifestyle he leads can’t help.
Forecasts of a housing crash are wide off the mark… UNLESS we have rising unemployment AND rising interest rates. No sign of that so utter tripe by the economically challenged:-)
I suspect Gordon is finding PMQs a real pia and worries in advance. I used to shake in advance of very important presntations or interviews but once they started it all stopped. Imo for it to continue shows inner doubt.
But for all I know it could be anger…
When empires start to fall their currency goes first…I suspect this is the start of the fall of the US empire tho it will take decades.
58. I have been observing this too. There has been some discussion on Doctorsnetuk as to whether his right arm swings less freely than his left, and it was his right arm which is shaking; Parkinson’s usually starts unilaterally. It would also explain his rather monotone voice, and rather stumbling speech pattern. Parkinson’s is always accentuated by stress/tension, so in the early stages the symptoms may only be visible in stressful situations.
Today’s PMQ will be the test; GB will know that the shake has been spotted, and will instinctively try to avoid it happening again. Paradoxically, if it is indeed PD, it will make the tremor more likely to become apparent. Watch closely (as everyone else will)
For the record I have no personal knowledge of Mr Brown’s medical details, and if I did I would not be posting this; I do have a very close relative with the condition, so I have observed it at close quarters for many years
68
Yes, in fact the UK gets a double benefit, marginal fields in the north sea, become economic to exploit. If it carries on like this, shale on the Dorset coast will become economic, and coal conversion to oil will start to look a good bet.
54: When was Cameron in charge of interest rates?
53 stodge “I see the Tory doom-mongers are out wringing their hands with glee at the prospect of a house price “crash”.”
Where have I said it with glee? Such a prospect is bad for most people and very bad for some. I just report the growing consensus amongst experts on this likelihood.
As to Mark Senior’s comment, I define a crash as a move down by more than 5%. Based on the last 10 years that would be a dramatic change in direction.
71 Barry, thanks for insight. There are no PMQs today.
I think Brown discovered a way to deal with Cameron yesterday. Stay calm and stick to policy substance.
Cameron is beginning to look a little smug with himself. He will have to tone it down a bit or this will damage him.
65 - I don’t think there will necessarily be doom and gloom in 2008, but a static housing market will still cut off funds from a swathe of the population who have got used to unlocking the increasing value of their properties to fund their lifestyles. My instinct is that swathe of people will have disproportionately voted for Blair since 1997, but voted for the Tories up until then. Aspirational, go-ahead people for whom the past decade has seen them make more money than in the rest of their life combined. Sure, they made some cash on the various privatisations, but the real wonga has come with high house prices - and low mortgage prices. A euphoria-inducing cocktail.
But for these people, if the tap is turned off, it will feel as chill an economic wind as if we were deep in recession. If they can no longer access the cash that paid for cars and flat screen tellies and foreign holidays - that is going to feel like their lives are going backwards. Should Labour get the blame? Moot point. But Labour got the electoral benefit in the good times, so why should that not now reverse?
71. Thanks Barry. The handyman who lives down the road from me has been suffering in the way you describe over the last year. It began with one arm shaking gently when he wasn’t using it for work - so gently that he barely noticed. It has deteriorated significantly since.
73 - “If it carries on like this, shale on the Dorset coast will become economic” - leading to the rise of the secessionist Dorset National Party with the cry of ‘It’s our Oil!’?
More seriously, many thanks for that answer.
Barry would you care to comment on Brown’s face? The large bags and colouration make me wonder if he either has drink or heart problems.
71. I think talk of Parkinsons are a little premature. I think Brown shakes because of a combination of nervousness and adrenaline. I do the same when I’ve bet more than I can afford on a horse!!
Oh please! And Dave Cameron is loosing his hair and MUST have blood pressure issues as he is so red-in-the-face.
Do we really have to plumb these depths?
80. You are barking up the wrong tree - thats my “prescription”.
80. Could the tendency to rage, poor judgement, and apparent memory loss also be symptoms of an undiagnosed condition?
77
For the Conservatives to reap the benefits of an economic downturn, they must explain their solution. On debt, the only sure way to substantially reduce debt, is by increases in interest rate: would they do that, and by how much?
Back in the seventies, in the death throes of the Callaghan government, Sir Keith Joseph gave a speech at Oxford, (little reported) in which he stated, to strenghen the pound and reduce debt, substantial increases in interest rates would be needed. A student asked, what sort of level, Sir Keith replied, ‘Whatever it takes’ the student said, ‘22%’ ‘If that is what it takes’ said Sir Keith.
Any Tories out there like to make the same statement. Perhaps put it in the next manifesto?
85: Make a statement that applied to the economic situation in the 1970s, in 2007? Wouldn’t that be silly?
85 Well Labour didn’t do a good job of exposing the Tories in the late 70’s - they had too much on their plate just surviving. Would Thatcher have won a majority if she had come clean about doubling value added tax. I doubt it.
68 - “does a rising pound vs the dollar mean that oil price rises are not felt as strongly here?”
Exactly that. Plus we stick a far higher tax rate onto it, so crude oil actually comprises a much smaller proportion of the price we pay at the pumps. Thankfully, the taxes don’t rise in line with the crude oil price (although I can’t recall whether the Chancellor gets a windfall on VAT?).
But essentially the countries who are hurting most are those who import oil and whose currency is pegged to the dollar. Which is primarily the US. Latest figure I have is that the US imports something over 10,000,000 barrels of oil a day. So at $94 a barrel, the US currently has an oil import bill of close on A BILLION DOLLARS A DAY.
And the Iraq war was supposed to secure $20 oil for the next fifty years…. And that is costing another $200 million a day.
85. The real calculation is the affordability of mortgages - is 22% on e.g. a £15k mortgage in 1977 more or less affordable than 7% on a e.g. £300k mortgage in 2008 factoring in council tax, stealth taxes etc? Thats the comparative sum you need to do.
86
No, the same rules apply, (obviously the BofE sets interest rates now) but the same question. would you do what it takes?
Voxpop, made a criticism, (a valid one)of the state of the economy, would a Cameron government accept the BofE raising interest rates to a level which would significantly reduce debt?
89
I think income may have to be taken into account!
“one of those fuzzy areas of employment law that work because tribunals take a common-sense view of what is practical.”
It’s an unusual employment tribunal that does that.
80. I don’t think that working 18 hours a day, seven days a week in a job which has high public visibility, travel across time zones, etc, is good for anyone’s health., nor for their performance.
I don’t wish health problems on anyone, let alone PD, which is a horrible condition, but perhaps those with public duties have a responsibilty to the public to look after themselves better; at least Blair did take holidays with his family, and I am sure that it was right and proper (and to everyone’s benefit)that he did so
85 “For the Conservatives to reap the benefits of an economic downturn, they must explain their solution.”
Not true. For the Conservatives to reap the benefits of an economic downturn, they don’t have to explain anything - they just need disgruntled former Labour voters to stay home on election day….
91. Correct its a combination of factors - not just the value of the interest rate - property is a much higher proportion of outgoings now than in 1977.
88
The Chinese import most of their oil too.. so they are hurting as well. BUT they are strategically buying up supplies. In 20 years time, it will not be the price of oil but its availablity that is the issue.
“China overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest consumer of oil in 2003 and is closing in on the US, with demand for oil growing at about 15% a year.
Analysts worry global demand for oil is so intense that supplies may not keep pace.
Demand will rise by an average of 2.2 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency says, compared with the 1.5 million-barrel rise seen in 2007.
It says annual demand will rise 2% up to 2012, while other projections suggest demand could soar from about 90 million barrels a day to as much as 140 million over 25 years”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7048600.stm
74 Sorry HF , a 5% move downwards in house prices would be a mere correction . OK no takers for my offer on a recession ( not many confident Conservative doomsters are there ) and I will reduce the house price collapse figure to 20% .
I had wondered about the significance of the hand shaking, is it just stress, or is it something more sinister, and posted a comment on one of yesterday’s other threads. I hadn’t noticed the hand shaking before. My wife suggested that it may not be significant, but why should we not ask questions about Brown’s temperment and health? Politicans can do their country a great disservice by clinging to office when they are very ill. Eden’s judgement at Suez was hampered by stress, prostrate problems and medication. Wilson stepped down early, but faced a slow, degeneration in his powers.
Brown doesn’t appear to be the sort of man who takes time off from his job. When he went to Basra, he sported the dark suit and ties, compare this with Blair usually turned up in an open necked shirt, and Major with an pullover and unbuttoned collar. Brown seems to be stiff and formal in public, does he ever do ‘casual’? How does Brown unwind or relax?
Brown has not managed to learn much from Blair on handling PMQs, the occaision highlight his weakenesses more than strengths, but poor performances at the dispatch box bearpit in the Commons, may mask his real strenghs. Unfortunately, PMQs unlike committee meetings are televised and so far Brown’s performance is at best dire. He needs to step back and rethink his whole approach to PMQs.
90: Both the global and national economic situations are totally different, and as you say someone else controls interest rates.
As for ‘doing what it takes’ I expect all governments to do that.
95
I had a mortgage on a house in West Byfleet Surrey in 1977, I’m an expert on mortgages re income.
If as so many Tory posters are right, an incoming Cameron government could take over in the midst of a financial crisis. If the BofE made it clear, that an immediate increase in interest rates was required, and raised it by a ‘Black Wednesday’ amount say 5%, would the government accept that? ‘If that’s what it takes’
Can’t wait, for the day.
100. No - the BoE mission is to control inflation nothing else - there are no plans for the Cons to change this mission.
97 Hope the flat move went well. There won’t be a recession next year and there won’t be house price falls of 25%+.
Unfortunately for the Dr Pangloss Party there won’t be much growth either, a worsening public finance picture and the risk of some real falls in house prices (ie with inflation at 2% and prices static that’s a real fall of 2%).
This is joyless growth - it’s not a recession but it will feel like one, unless you are in work with no debt (like me) when you won’t really notice. If Japan goes down the tubes and Chinese inflation really takes off then the picture may be different.
I’m still buying bank shares though - RBS selling is being overdone but it feels a very lonely place at the moment beleiving that the big banks will turn back into money making machines in the next 2-3 years!
101
‘Men make plans for the God’s to mock’
The devastating news for Brown is not the hand shaking itself, but the fact that it has been picked up at all. People are clearly out to get him. Once the mutterings on ill health have started, they’ll be hard to stop. Poor bugger.
There is no doubt at all that at some point Cameron or Blair exhibited a physical trait that could be interpreted as ill health. The key difference is that no-one is looking for reasons to attack them personally.
Scenting weakness some people are out to get Brown right now, just as they were 12 months ago, and will pick on any weapon at their disposal. Brutal below the belt politics, played by the chattering classes, who clearly have never accepted Brown as “one of us”. Brown survived this sort of stuff once before, I hope he can do it again.
94 - This is a possible scenario - unless Labour voters (and others who switch to Labour) really turnout because they “cling to nurse for fear of worse”.
103. You nearly managed to persuade us you were an educated person there…shame about the apostrophe.
I think scoffing at the possibility of a housing crash is a big mistake.
The shortage of credit could easily create a housing crash, and a recession, and rising unemployment.
Some of Britain’s biggest businesses including Boots, Somerfield, Birds Eye, Bupa and Hilton to name a few have been bought using what we now call private equity (but with what used to be called leverage finance, or junk bonds) i.e. debt.
This means that these companies replace shareholders capital that carries the discretionary need to pay dividends with debt which carries the compulsory requirement to pay interest.
When profits get tight (as they will next year) PLC companies can reduce the dividend and preserve their capital, but highly leveraged companies can’t and have to either cut costs, slash investment or downsize.
Over-borrowed companies are currently matched by over-borrowed consumers and an over-borrowed Government here and in the US.
The last time we had the same combination was 1989-90. However hard Labour have tried to re-write the 1990’s recession as being a result of Black Wednesday it was in fact already in full flight by then having begun with a hard landing in the US at the beginning of 1990.
Human nature being what it is creating a ’soft landing’ is impossible; there will be a crash in business and consumer confidence next year, the only issue is how big and how deep, of that I am certain.
104: Part of being PM is having to do things like PMQs and the Queen’s Repeats debate, and clearly Brown can’t.
He’s a Godsend to the Tories but I’m not sure how good having a weak stroppy man as PM is for the country.
107 Marcus I would add that the credit and mortgage supported boom in spending will fall with the belt tightening and the reduction in the amount of cash available for borrowing.
Is there PMQs today ?
108 - If you think the sight of a smug PR man saying “look me in the eye” while the rest of his unattractive cohort bray and scream around him signifies victory at the next election, then you are heading for a fall old fruit!
108 In these terms the PM job is not that much different to the chancellor job really. After all the budget debate is THE biggest parliamentary occasion of the year and for the past 10 years Brown did all right at that.
If you think he’s a godsend to the Tories you’re forgetting your 10 years of almost total and utter humiliation, which without doubt owed a lot to Brown. So you’ve raised your game. Good. For your own sake I’d avoid being too cocky, too soon.
106 Safe to say you’ve left us in no doubt about the type of person you are AS! OED defn of a pedant.
” A person who excessively reveres or parades academic learning or technical knowledge, often without discrimination or practical judgement.”
107
I agree with your scenario IF interest rates do not fall.
I think the US has no choice BUT to cut and cut and cut. If not, its economy will slowly implode…
If interest rates fall in the UK, it will be difficult, house prices may fall and spending slow but I don’t see a crash next year.. (but 2010-12 will be rather different imo)
OT Help needed! WillHill have emailed me their latest promotion- bet £10 get a £10 bet free. As my accounts used for playing a game of chance&skill using cards, I’ve no idea what to bet on. I thought a good strategy might be to bet the first tenner on a near sure thing, then make some more interesting bets with the “free” £10. Trouble is, I know nothing about sports betting. Any tips and suggestions?
112 - Bit shrill today, aren’t we? Not unlike Gordon yesterday ;). But your general point is valid: Tories really should not get too carried away at the moment.
Oh, a pedantic point, and why not? The Chancellor does gives the Budget statement, but does not actually participate in the successive debates apart from (IIRC) the final winding-up speech.
115 Good to hear from you again John 0! Hope all’s well with you.
116 - Many thanks. Yes, plodding along haphazardly, trying (but not always succeeding) to keep the customers satisfied!
116 - Jonathan, BTW, I was also thinking of posting about the Fab Four’s Blue Meanies yesterday, but then I realised that 30 years on, we are now the Green Lovelies.
Coldstone I think you will find that G Brown also said at some point that he would do whatever it takes to keep the economy stable. He would be a dangerous chancellor and PM if he did not.
But instead of relying on interest rates he has increased taxes significantly, taking steam out of the economy that way. Now he is stuck as the economic cycle comes to an end he is reliant on those taxes and they will simply make any recession or economic downturn worse.
At some point he will have to slash expenditure. And that will show us if he and Darling have what it really takes. I suspect we shall see the late 70’s all over again.
Re: 107 - Ignoring the party-political points-scoring for a second, Marcus, you’ve made an interesting point and analogy.
Labour came in procliaming an end to “boom and bust”. Quite clearly, you believe this hasn’t happened and parallel what is happening now with what happened in 1989-90 when, as I hope you’ll agree, Nigel Lawson had overheated the economy.
Is this cyclical pattern typical of the British economy and does it underline some strucutural flaws that haven’t been addressed by either Conservative or Labour governments ? We are, or seem to be, consumers by thought, word and deed. As soon as we have money, we go out and buy things and that starts the whole cycle again.
Is there not an argument for changing the economic culture ? Should we in fact have less disposable income dedicated to consumption and more to debt repayment/saving/personal pension provision ? Does the housing market dangerously distort the economy and, if so, what can be done to redress it ? I don’t accept that simply building more houses work but I also can’t see how the “atomisation” of society, as DC put it, can be reversed ?
113 But falling interest rates won’t help the US - even if they can cut them much more. The next issue there and everywhere else is rising inflation - oil is rising for instance because you need ever more (lower value) dollars to pay for it, so it is with most other commodities.
The last time we had a crash because the banks themselves were in financial trouble was 1973-4.
When that recession came it really was an ‘every man for himself’ situation where panicky banks withdrew loans from all and sundry in a desperate attempt to stay afloat themselves.
That affected good businesses as well as the bad and the repercussions lasted for ten years or more and was disastrous for everyone.
Banks in the 1989-90 recession were run by men who remembered this and in many cases they behaved far more responsibly towards their business customers (though not, it has to be said, to their mortgage customers)and didn’t panic to quite the same recklessly destructive degree.
All these people have long retired now. Most banks haven’t got executives who can remember a recession at all, let alone the 1970’s one.
I think there is the potential - although perhaps not the likelihood- that a slowdown could quickly snowball into a meltdown.
111: What was Blair other than a ’smug PR man’? Didn’t he win a few elections?
122. He was pretty cocky and shrill at PMQs too as I recall, when Labour were in opposition.
121
I take your points. I remember 1973:-(
I cannot believe how greedy the banks have been on sub prime. As I have said before, it was obvious to amyone with an email account there was a subprime bubble from the spam!:-)
But banks have a long and persistent hisotry of lending like lemmings. And then jumping off the same cliff together…
I just wait to see which pension funds and insurance companies have been so gullible. Based on past history quite a lot.
Sorry Stodge, I didn’t see your post at 120 - I am much more sanguine about recessions than you seem to be, they are as to commerce as autumn is to trees.
I cannot see how you can have a free market capitalist system without “boom and bust” and that is why I have always wryly laughed whenever Brown has been stupid enough to boast about ending it.
“When your taxi driver is telling you what shares to buy - that is the time to sell everything.”
120 I don’t see how you can abolish boom and bust. All economies have cycles of expansion and recession.
121 You’re dead right Marcus - using one of the BoEs fantail forecasts I would suggest mine at 102 is in the middle, yours is a big fat tail on one side and Mark Senior’s Panglossian worldview is a very narrow tail on the other side.
119 As the Labour party are the only people on the planet who continue to beleive in the public sector multiplier effect no doubt Darling is happy that his taxes are producing more output than if it was left in the private sector.
He can look forward to increased tax revenues in future, as the command economy grows and buries the wasteful lickspittles of the private sector who are obsessed with pointless competition and the socailly divisive profit motive.
56 StJohn
Collecting rude racehorse names is a hobby of mine.
I think the Weatherbys committee that monitors these things was set up long ago after it was found that a horse by the name of Selohesra had been running unnoticed for some time.
My collection includes: Large Action: Deep Sensation: Wet Patch: Keep It Zipped: and my favorite, Roger The Butler.
No doubt you could add to this.
On a more serious matter, I think Boot’n'Toot will win the 1.00 at Huntingdon today. I have had £25 ew at 7/2. I doubt that price will get bigger.
OT, how some within the Democrats are looking to attack Clinton’s canadidacy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aEIdqDgy6BBY&refer=home
121, 124 I sometimes think that the role of banks is to take depositors money and lend it to people who have no hope of paying it back - we had the crash of the 1970s, the loans to impecunious third world dictatorships in the 1980s, the property crash of the early 90s and now the sub-prime crisis. Unbelivable!
resigning to spend more time with my cars! that’s a new one
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7082833.stm
130 nickc
My Book Of Meaningful Definitions describes a bank as an institution that offers to lend money to people who don’t need it.
This is quite apt, but not nearly so apt as its definition of an Insurance Company - a bookmaker that doesn’t pay out on winners.
131. Isn’t that Lord Drayson of Powderject? Perhaps he feels the days of easy government contracts are coming to an end…
127 Kingbongo I hope, really hope, that you are right and that it is me who is way out on this. But the balance of probability makes the doom scenario more and more likely in the US and here.
Very high consumer, corporate and state debt
Actual interest rates rising through market forces, in spite of central bank intervention to the opposite
Already historically high and rising commodity prices
Record high asset prices houses/antiques/art/shares)
A falling dollar.
= CRASH
128. Peter, I know of a horse called “My face”
Seems innocent enough until you cheer it on “Come on …