Are we writing Gordon off prematurely?
November 12th, 2007
How the numbers show that he has a lot to smile about
Judging by the latest round of press comment and the reaction to the polls you would have thought that Brown had brought his party to the point of electoral disaster with an inglorious election defeat being the only possible outcome.
Yet are these perceptions correct? For the numbers suggest that under Gordon Labour’s polling position has been transformed with the number of people telling pollsters they would vote Labour up sharply.
Thus taking ICM surveys from January 2007 until Gord came in Labour were never out of the 29-32% range. Since the abortive election decision the same pollster has found Labour shares of 35%, 35%, 36% and 38%.
That’s quite a big uplift and if Labour can stay in the mid-30s it is quite hard for the Tories to win a majority.
Our views are being distorted by two things - we tend just to look at the Lab-Con margins in the polls and not what Bob Worcester advised us to do in his PBC session a few weeks back - the actual shares; and secondly we are judging Gord by the crazy polling period of September just around the party conference season when polls leads of 13% were reported.
In May-June, I was arguing strongly that we should wait maybe six months before coming to any conclusion about his premiership. For things would be distorted by the inevitable honeymoon and then the party conference season. That indeed is what happened.
So in spite of the apparent poor polling news Labour is doing better under Gordon than under his predecessor.
Mike Smithson
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If Blair came back, would there be a ‘Blair Bounce’? I think there would.
Labour may be doing a bit better, Mike, but is that not because the “election that never was” served as a wake-up call to apathetic Labour supporters?
The underlying inclination to vote Labour surely has been more or less steady, but it is the likelihood of voting that has changed.
Also, of course, the fact that Blair has finally gone makes people more inclined to want to vote, as opposed to simply inclining towards Labour.
That’s true. Mike, but Northern Rock has changed politics. Before, I assumed, maybe wrongly, that if hard times come, as they must someday, people would turn to Brown as a tough, competent leader. I’m less sure now that they wouldn’t blame him for their troubles rather than see him as their salvation. On Question Time the other night the audience burst out laughing when a government spokesman boasted about Labour’s economic competenece. The memory of those queues has burned into the popular consciousness.
Fair point I think some of us may be geetting carried away by Brown getting consistantly guffed at PMQs etc. and the scale of the non election cock up. Really all depends on which Party new Libdem leader takes most votes from. So we may need to wait another 6 months!
A quick game.
Look at the pictures at the top of the thread and write down the first three words that come into your head.
Please see the end of the last thread for breathtaking levels of Tory corwing and complacency.
Keep it up chaps! You lot go on believing its all in the bag - suits us fine!
6 - “crowing” even!
5. insane. vacant. smarmy.
8 - “Smarmy” - my god, that word was *invented* for Cameron and his ilk!
3. I think you’re right about the significance of Northern Rock but it could even be worse than that for the government. Their decisions at the time were driven by a desire to get the queues off the streets at any cost so that election plans would not be derailed. There is plenty of scope for this to come back and bite them even harder.
5 fag, end , jim
5. Children can’t vote.
In my experience (over 40 years watching politics:-( it takes momentous events and total incompetence for a Government to lose..
Taking as they come:
Heath: 3 day week
Callaghan: IMF and piles of rubbish in streets
Major: Black Wednesday and sleaze and incompetence:
I can see Gordon Borwn being dull, ineffectual at PMQs, and it is possible all Gov’t and personal borrowing can come to a very nasty end…and they are incompetent at managing (but dully so)
but so far ther has been no defining event..
Maybe this time it will different.. but I don’t think so.
I see all for both parties and the Lib Dems to play for in the next 2-3 years.
Addendum
but if the credit crunch gets much worse, and we see a major and prolonged stock market fall (not just a 6 month wonder)… then all bets are off and Labour will definitely lose the next election… but at present, who knows?
The credit crunch is overrated as a factor. You need massive leverage AND a credit panic/economic downturn to have an appreciable impact. In fact corporate leverage is below the postwar average and economic growth is predicted to be above trend. In my view NR should have been allowed to have gone under to prove that so-called ‘crisis’ was in fact extremely limited.
14. It’s getting worse - E-Trade Financial could be on the verge of bankrupcy. Shares open almost 50% down:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ETFC&hl=en
15.
Remember though, there is no crisis so bad, that a government can’t make much worse….
I don’t think the figures look terrible for Labour, but when you consider that 2 months ago many were writing obitiaries for David Cameron’s career, it has been a remarkable turnaround. Not least because there hasn’t been a major event that explains it.
As someone who follows politics closely I get more concerned with the Brown administration by the day. The ‘Brown Conservative’ strategy blatantly hasn’t worked. There’s a dreadful article by Bruce Anderson in the Independent (about Malloch Brown mainly) and there was that weird piece by Nicholas Watt in the Observer a fortnight ago. Hardly newspapers with an agenda against the Government. The way the media reacted abruptly to his photoshoot in Iraq tells me they’ve got very little faith in him. But……. the country is hardly in a state of crisis and I still think most voters find the Tory party unappealing (Nice Dave excepted).
6: And what were you posting when the Clunking One had his bounce?
One of the jobs of an Opposition is to try and get a ‘Government failing’ narrative people’s minds. If you read some of the stuff Blair said about Major it makes Cameron’s attacks on Brown look weak.
Actually Mike you appear to have run off a selection of nice photos of Gordon.
I just find him pretty unappealing as a character. Too much scheming, plotting, politicking, manoevering probably backed up by personal characteristics of being hugely intelligent, but having little self esteem. A bad, bad combination. Constantly over thinking and analysing and neurotic thinking.
Conversely, Cameron is less intelligent, but has oodles of self esteem. Much better coping characteristics I think for politics. But he still leads a party that people do not much particularly care for.
15
If NR had gone under, remembering that only the first £35k of any deposit was insured you would have had two main effets:
1. a lot of people would have lost a LOT of money (like £100ks..+)
and
2.there would have been a run on ALL banks… because the UK banking sytem would have looked very flakey…
imo of course…
The last bank failure to have lost depositors real money was longer ago than I can remember…
I think you are out on this, Mike. Sure Browns polling is still just above Blair but he hasn’t actually had to *do* anything yet!
A change of leader was intended to freshen up the Government and neutralise the ‘time for a change’ sentiment that all Governments fear the most.
It hasn’t worked like that, because as was discussed on here a lot over last year Gordon is too associated with Blair to ever be seen as new.
So after the shortest of bounces he is almost back to where they were and the signs are that he will slowly slide further so that by his first anniversary as leader he will be level with or below Blairs ratings.
Milliband was right, in a few months time Labour will be thinking ‘why did we dump the vote-winning one?’
GB is not written off. But he now looks vulnerable. He leads a weak team and his base of activists and councillors is at a 30+ year low. There are indications that Labour’s memberships have resumed their 11 yr slide.
The widely held view after Brown took over and turned the polls around was that the pre-coronation polls were incorrect. Since the non-election debacle the polls have reversed.
If the pre-coronation polls were correct, then the Conservatives will open up a consistent and sustained gap of more than 10 points. We will see if that happens over the next 2 months. We shall see if for Labour polls in the mid 30s are the bottom or just a step before dropping to low 30s.
20 Tyson, “But he still leads a party that people do not much particularly care for.”
So the fact that Conservatives have as many councillors as Labour and the Lib Dems combined, indicates that voters do not care for them?
18. But think back to 1997…did the public really have much enthusiasm for Labour apart from Tony Bliar?
22- Blair wasn’t “vote-winning” anymore
For appraising Gordon you need to look at the trend - and its been one way since September.
All the time that people can remember Thatcher and the pre 97 sleaze fiasco the core Labour vote will hold because the word Thatcher inspires Labour supporters to get off their backsides and vote.
If she gets pushed from the political consciousness of the UK electorate then i can only see one winner over the next few years and that is DC.
Whether this can happen is debatable.
The poll shares should be judged against the background of a third term. Third terms are notoriously difficult, usually fatal, for any government. As third terms go, to be polling in the mid thirties isn’t to bad.
24 Boasting about the amount of Conservative councillors, lets see how many there are at the end of the first term of a Cameron government. It is normal for the party of government to suffer in local elections.
As for Northern Rock, the government didn’t force the directors of Northern Rock to get involved with the US mortgage market. IMHO the only thing the government did wrong with Northern Rock was rescue it. Northern Rock should have been allowed to sink with all hands: to encourage the others! Polls taken, show that the government escaped any blame for Northern Rock.
Northern Rock should have been allowed to sink with all hands: to encourage the others!
Ah, but if the sinking ship creates a swell that causes other vessels like the Alliance and Leicester to founder, the state would eventually have to launch a force of lifeboats (for depositors, at least) in much less propitious circumstances.
29-When it is discovered that by xmas the govt has had to support NR to the tune of £30bn which is the same as the defence budget for next year do you think the public will understand?
Test
29: That’s not correct. The Tories were ahead in the polls for well over half of their third term. In fact it took Labour over a year to get a poll that showed them ahead and two years to get a lead in two consecutive polls.
24-Hmm- the last proper election i.e a GE, I thought the Tories got fewer than 200 seats. When did the Tories last win a bye election- the next best guide for a GE?
The next election is rapidly looking like the 2005 German election Which party does the public despise least, and the winner by a knife edge is? But the difference is that Merkel is a much better leader for the centre right than Cameron ever dream to be.
The happy clappy Tories who inhabit this site do not live in the real world. They live in Tory dream world where local elections are somehow important of something.
30
Why, where will it end, who and what else do you intend to bail out?
I remember all those Lloyd names squealing ‘cos they lost money saying the government should compensate them. tough! investment involves risk, geddit!
33
That is true, but of course the Tories had slumped in their second term, after the Westland Affair, then recovered to win. But the third term was noticeable for tremendous upheavals in the Tory Party, including Mrs T getting the knife between the shoulder blades.
30. Also true - but a controlled liquidation whcih didn’t endanger the financial system as a whole would have been perfectly feasible. It didn’t happen for the sole reason that the government didn’t want mass job losses in the NE ahead of the snap election…
Tyson i don’t think Parliamentary by elections are a good indicator if you look over the longer term.
Otherwise there would not have been a third or fourth Tory victory in the 80’s and 90’s and more recently they would have presaged a LibDem government wouldn’t they?
34 Tyson. “The next election is rapidly looking like the 2005 German election Which party does the public despise least, and the winner by a knife edge is?”
Actually, I think we are there already. In the circles that I mode in, that seemed to be the dominant mood of people at the LAST General Election, never mind the next one.
34. Rather ironic to read a serial fantasist accusing others of not inhabiting the ‘real world’…or is it the final telling symptom of insanity when an individual insists that his delusions are the true reality and everyone else’s experiences are fantasies?
28. timmo. You may well be right. So, why on this good earth did Gordon Brown invite the Devil Woman into No 10 for tea? In your view, then, he must be a complete, blithering idiot.
Coldstone “Third terms are notoriously difficult, usually fatal, for any government.” - bit of a sweeping statement, there have only been two other three-full-term Governments in the last century; The tories from 1951-63 and again in 1979-1997.
So far we have had one of each, a third therm that was ‘fatal’ and a third term that went on to a fourth; it remains to be seen which of these two classes this Labour administration will fall into.
39:true
Re Parliamentary by elections. I think we are still miles away from the sort of successes Labour were having pre 97 or that we were having, for that matter, pre 79.
I think any news of a pending by election in a Lab/Con marginal with a reasonable Labour majority would still strike equal fear into both Parties. Only when we can be confident of chalking up victories without really trying can we be sure its really in the bag.
5 - “Tory landslide win”?
“Wipe smile off”?
“Bloody annoying Scot”?
“Hey Big Spender”?
“Waste of Space”?
“Captain of Titanic”?
“Holed below waterline”?
…were just some of the suggestions in my office.
44 - also, “moral compass arse”
Although I think there was an “up his” in there too…
45 Bob, do you work in CCO?
5. Gee Hay Why
“Michael Foot revisited…”?
re 31 it certainly won’t go down well with all those who “saved” their money with Farepack last year and who were just left to fend for themselves.
The story so far:
1. polls we disagree with are rogues.
2. council elections mean nothing in the real world
3. by elections are not good indicators
All we need to do now is discount general elections and we can all live happily ever after.
46, no - these were all suggestions in my office.
However, I’m the only one here right now!
29 coldstone “Boasting about the amount of Conservative councillors, lets see how many there are at the end of the first term of a Cameron government. It is normal for the party of government to suffer in local elections.”.
Yes normal to lose some, but the drop for Labour has been faster and deeper. After 10 yrs in Govt the Conservatives share of councillors fell from 48% to 38%. For Labour the drop has been from 48% to 25% in just 10 yrs. It took the Conservatives 16 years to get to the level Labour reached after just 10.
Since 1973 (as far as my records go), the party with at least 40% of the councillors has won the most MP seats. 1974×2, 79, 83, 87, 97. The Conservatives currently have 43%.
36: For the first half of the Tories third term they were, bar one or two polls, always ahead. For the first half of this Labour third time Labour has had a lead for less than half the time.
If Labour with a new leader can’t poll better than Thatcher after ten years in power things aren’t that great.
Bird flu in Diss, Norfolk.
54 - that’s 5 words, fr…
Brown’s lost the media which Blair never managed to achieve. Dacre looks as if his number’s up at the Mail, for example after investing so mch credibility in his backing of Brown. It’s the fact the media despise Gordon Brown so much that leaves him stranded, that Murdoch is confronting him head-on over the Constitution, and that he gives his own MPs so little confidence in the Commons.
The polls can say what they want. Brown’s on the downhill slope.
5. Hide the kids.
47 - very good. The penny’s just dropped here…
b0llox 2 Brown
35 - Rather than the shareholders, who lost everything, the key would have been the depositors.
37 - Liquidation seems a bit drastic for a solvent business, and it’d leave the BofE with the job of administering NR’s assets until some sort of wider market returns for the loan book.
52 - The creation of the Alliance, and the particularly virulent leftward turn of Labour at a local level, probably gave Conservatives in local government an unusually solid cushion for a government. In 1980 and 1981, before the Alliance really got going locally, Labour performed fairly well.
5: Rocking Horse Cowboy
60 popular misconception. solvent banking businesses can get funding. NR couldnt get funding because their business model relied on writing crazy mortgages….when the market turned the funding dried up. a business that involves borrowing and lending money is bust if it cant do one or the other.
My interpretation is that Brown will get some of the traditional Labour vote that had lost faith in Blair and New Labour and stayed at home in 2005 and, to a lesser degree 2001, out but all that will do is pile up votes in safe Labour seats in the North and he will lose out to Cameron in the key marginals in the south and the midlands.
Are we writing Gordon off prematurely?
No, I don’t balieve so, I honestly believe it’s going to get a whole lot worse for him yet.
The mood in the country has turned viviously against Brown since the election that never was - the Great British Public don’t take kindly to being messed with. But for me, the really big issue is that I simply don’t think he’s up to the job - and I’m not just referring to his shaking hands, etc.
I see him quitting or being pushed within about 12 months, especially if at that time the Tories are holding a double digit lead and with a General Election by then just around the corner.
As has been said by others here, the next election might be a “good one” for Labour to lose, providing they lose it narrowly, rather than by a country mile.
5 - “Blair pissing himself”
44
Not fit for purpose?
64 2nd line should read viciously
“Winter of Discontent”
“Fuel strike looming”
“Eight points behind”
“Curtains coming down”
“Up sh1t creek”
60. You may be technically solvent but if your assets are so illiquid they cannot be mobilised to cover liabilities, there is little practical difference between that and insolvency.
I would like to write him off. Preferrably under the left Challenger tank track. The right track is reserved for his part time Defence Minister.
68 The real killer blow for Labour would be a 15%-20% fall in house prices over the next two years. Probably unlikely, but very possible.
64 - Re: GB quitting/being pushed within 12 months, I just can’t see it. Until he actually loses an election, I don’t think the Labour party will find the guts to get rid of him (to say nothing of the lack of credible alternatives), and it seems unlikely that, having plotted for years to get the premiership, he should voluntarily leave unless forced by cirumstance.
63 - if Brown can get back some of the people who traditioanlly supported Labour but didn’t vote in 2005 (or who switched to the Lib Dems), then it won’t just have an effect in safe Labour seats, but will increase Labour’s vote in the marginals as well. Traditional Labour voters don’t all live in safe seats in the North of England, there are some of them in every part of the country, and it only takes a few to make a difference in places like Kent.
69 You are insolvent as a Ltd Co if you are ‘unable to meet your liabilities as and when they fall due’. NR was -by that definition- in danger of becoming insolvent if the BoE had not offered liquidity.
Expectation, Acclamation, Realization, Desperation.
syob syrf
Are we writing Gordon off prematurely?
No, Brown is not the solution to todays problems: Mainly because he was the archietech of them!
Brown is a lead weight around Labour and whereas Blair was unpopular he could still entuse, Brown lacks the ability to enthuseLabour voters, it would not surprise me if the polls giving Labour mid 30’s oversestimate Labour by upto 3 percent!
In short yes.
You can’t write him, or more importantly his party off. Things can happen. On the other hand, right now, I wouldnt put any money on him pulling it out of the fire. I just can’t see it.
Just a couple of quick points re the US thread that I missed.
-The planting of questions isnt a killer and wont be, at least not based on what we know of it so far. On the other hand there is a Stop Hilary campaign coming that has more strategic motives and damage potential. There is, amongst some Democrats, a basic fear that when it comes to the crunch, the US electorate simply wont like her enough. Questions of likeability and electability are emerging in a more co-ordinated fashion. It is this that may do damage.
As I pointed out a week ro two back though….who gets the benefit? Obama or Edwards. Regulars here will know who my money is on to improve if Hilary bumps.
On the Republican side, I know some have made a bit of hay out of McCain’s resurgance, however, anyone thinking of dipping in now may have lost best opportunity. McCain is there and can still make progress but, I think, critically he is not close to a lead in any early primary. I expect respectable performances but a critical win may elude him and the race could pass him by with front loading. As someone who respects and admires the old goat that is saddening but he needs another jump somewhere, or the political death of Thompson, which is viable. As fdiscussed before, there is more potential transfer from supporters of Thompson to McCain than many may imagine. Overall he’s still undervalued but by less than he was just a short while ago.
Conceded defeat at…
Lost his deposit.
Former Prime Minster.
Discredited and defeated.
Pyschologically flawed loser.
72 I can follow your logic animal, but do you really think he’s actually enjoying being PM? He certainly doesn’t give that impression and the reason he plotted for so long was largely to do with his dislike of his predecessor. Another year of enduring the kind of stress the job entails and who knows.
Another factor to consider is that any successor a year from now might reasonably exoect to enjoy a honeymoon period, just long enough to call a GE and conceivably win it.
NR couldnt get funding because their business model relied on writing crazy mortgages
NR’s loan book, as opposed to their financing model, is still fairly sound at the moment, although a downturn might change that. Of course, the liquidity problem does raise serious short-term problems - but it makes it easier to maintain the business, and also ensure that you don’t get poor value by a distress sale that severly undervalues the assets.
I asked a mate what the first 3 words to come into his head are when I say “Gordon Brown”.
He couldn’t think of anything immediately but has just texted me: “Smack in face”.
Not a violent man…
80. Cant pay ? Perhaps because you are on-strike ??
Roll the debt over and start again at 25 years. Yessir - no defaulters here…
Three words:
pass….the….sickbag
82. What’s unsustainable about that? Everyone knows house prices only ever go up so the extra debt will always be covered.
36. Labour was still unelectable in the tories 3rd term.
Even labour supporters like Cohen say Cameron is electable in a guardian/observer piece the other day. Cohen said he did not fear a tory government. In the tories 3rd term Kinnock was feared by many as were the Labour parties stupid defence policies and economic policies. In the tories 3rd term Quentin Davies said of Labour:
Mr. Quentin Davies : Is not it a fact that the principal political risk against which British industry needs insurance is the risk of a Labour Government? In the event of the Labour party coming to power British industry would be overtaxed, over-inflated, over-regulated and overburdened with additional costs such as the minimum wage.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199192/cmhansrd/1992-01-15/Orals-1.html
Obviously the tories are in a better position now than Labour was then, with such parisan and negative attacks by Tory attack dogs!!!
:lol: 
:lol: 
:lol:
34 Agreed. The Tories need to convince people that they would be better than the current lot and that their warm words have some ideas behind them. They haven’t really begun to do this yet IMO.
The longer Brown is in office with his top down Kremlin style control freakery, the worse it will get. A new face at the helm of the ship doesn’t mean that the ship isn’t a rust bucket any more. I suspect and I have for some time that its going to be a repeat similar to the demise of John Major. I cannot see any rabbits being pulled out of hats,(I can only envisage bad news economically) and I suspect Labour MP’s in the marginals will be more worried about saving their seats than supporting the Govt.
As for the Competition, ” Four Gordon’s? Laughable”
80 if it was such a good business how come nobody would lend to it? in any market downturn the player with the weakest business model suffers first.
87 - “Send to Gulags”…
“Cameron eyeing curtains”
“Opposition benches beckon”
if it was such a good business how come nobody would lend to it?
I’m not saying the total model is sound - but one aspect of the business, the loan book, probably is. The specific drying up of the pool of buyers for mortgage rates is the key problem. With slightly more liquidity, NR could have been absorbed with by a financial institution with a sounder capital base; but, for the next few months at least, most banks won’t want to spend their spare cash until they can make a realistic judgement about their own exposure to the changing values of financial instruments.
“Big Girls Blouse”
“Big Time Loser”
“6 6 6″
“Strength Through Joy”
“Bring Back Blair”
“Got No Bottle”
“Promoted Too Far”
“Hasn’t A Clue”
“Waste of Space”
“Tax and Spend”
73. Fair point. But the poll from the 60 marginals which showed the big Tory lead and was one of the key reasons Brown bottled the election would suggest otherwise.
Question for Mike, why don’t the pollsters do polls from just the 100 most marginal seats more often?
After all, due to electoral system, they are the ones which will decide any close election - and the next one is likely to be pretty close.
79 - PfP - I don’t think he’s doing it because he enjoys it. Ambition doesn’t really work that way. And if he walked away right now (or within the next 12 months or so), it would be a tacit admission of failure, akin to admitting he had been wrong to strive for the top job for all these years. It’s not in the man’s (somewhat self-tortured, imho) nature.
91 ” With slightly more liquidity, NR could have been absorbed with by a financial institution with a sounder capital base”
of course thats correct but the supervisory regime put in place by Brown wouldnt allow it. the combination of BOE/FSA and EU rules meant the BOE couldnt sort it out as they would have done in the past. those to blame for this fiasco are; applegarth - still in a job, brown- still in a job, darling-still in a job.
“Lost his bottle”
“Lack of balls”
“Got no friends”
“Can’t ‘do’ people”
“A cunning stunt”
and
“Where’s Roger gone?”
Dear oh dear.
Bad move, Labour.
Started so well.
Flood. Fire. Pestilence.
Election? What election?
Northern Rock shambles.
How many immigrants?
Wheels coming off.
Trap door opening.
Recount in Barnsley……*
*With apologies to Ave It 07
91. That’s really just an elaborate way of admitting that the current arrangements are a life support system designed to keep NR alive until such a type as financial conditions are magically restored to their pre-July conditions and banks start queueing up to buy NR’s loan book.
But a) there’s no guarantee that conditions will return to ‘normal’ anytime soon and b) the longer the life support goes on, the weaker the remaining business becomes, with the particular risk that the quality of the loan book will deteriorate if the housing market turns down. There may be even less interest in the NR mortgage assets six month from now than there is at present - what then?
91
Add Sir Derek Wanless to your list of failing directors. As Chairman of the N Rock Risk Committee.. he should.. (need I say more).
But with a reputation from running NatWest badly, why should he change?
And the FSA for approving their special dividend when they were running out of cash!
Clearly the Board had no idea of the risks they were running and the impact of the downturn in the credit markets- nor did the FSA.
Unfortunately, like Wanless, the FSA has form in this area as well.
100 he was known as derek witless at natwest!
‘Gordon Answer Yesterday’
100. The acronym FSA is widely thought in the City to stand for something other than Financial Services Authority…
“Good At Yawning”?
If you want to know about what purports to be the “Original FSA”…
http://www.fsa.co.uk/
105. Try this one: http://www.financialservicesauthority.org/
106- yes, this is a good one! It says… for example…
-We are the people who told you in 2003 that the stock market was a risky place to invest.
-We are the people who forced Standard Life to dump shares at the bottom of the market to the detriment of millions of policyholders.
-We are the people who forced Standard Life to de-mutualise to the further detriment of millions of policy holders.
-We are the people who were, ahem, looking the other way when Equitable Life buggered everything up.
-We are the people who say nothing when Socialist Brown increases Stamp Duty on property, forcing millions of people to borrow more money to pay tax.
-We are the people who have the audacity to speak of consumer detriment when it is we who have put the financial services industry in the UK into crisis and worked to destroy consumer confidence in pensions and savings.
-We are totally incompetent.
107 You don’t like them then, SBS?
“Generally Around Youths”
O/T, but of concern - are we about to see some very unpleasant inflation figures? Certainly, a number of everyday foodstuffs have rocketed in price recently, viz: butter up 20p/250gms pack, bread up 10p/loaf, eggs up 30p/box of six, as well as 15%+ increases on any number of related products, incl cream, cheese, flour, etc, etc, etc. Taken together, a real hit on the weekly shopping basket.
110 No cuts in intereest rates then for the foreseeable future. What hope for the housing market?
110 We already saw some pretty nasty inflation figures this morning at the producer end.
BTW Northern Rock had nothing to do with US mortgages - just its liquidity dried up when people worried the same thing might happen here (it will). Because they borrowed short they got into trouble.
Matthew Partridge is reverting to spoof poster mode again. I really believe he existed for a time as an economics student - admittedly not a very good one.
I see the Speccie Coffee House has nominated this as a “must read post” so please people best behaviour for the visitors (no cats, Ashcrofts, internecine warfare)
110
Add to your list council tax and mortgage repayments increases and real inflation is probably in double digits.
I’m a Lib-Dem but more than anything I am a man who hated Blair. Brown and Blair’s policies are very similiar, i’m sure we can all agree - therefore all this anti-brown stuff from the people self-appointed heirs to Blair I cannot stomoch.
The next time Cameron’s up on the front page we should surely have a the “three word” competition in the interests of equality.
114 ….. not to mention petrol!
I can’t remember price rises like this for many a long year.
115. Next prime minister? (Just getting my entry in early.)
110
Food is weighted quite lowly in the UK basket for inflation.
IiRC it’s about 9% (but don’t quote me).. So even if food by itself rises 50%, inflation overall would “only” rise 4.5%.
But the impact on China andIndia - and their industries - is MUCH higher where food represents 25to35% of the basket. So a 50% rise in food prices means inflation overall of around 17%.
Bad news seeing how we and the US import so much from China.
(Buy a frozen turkey cheap now is my advice… if the bird flu in Norfolk spreads, they may become much more expensive. I grow my own.)
115+117 “1997 style victory”!
116 Newspapers, stamps, even haircuts - yes, when you think about it, most everyday things (apart perhaps from clothes) seem to have gone up by 10%+ over the past year.
117 - fair play, funny good fast answer (and given the current anti-con bias in the system, probably wrong…)
But a) there’s no guarantee that conditions will return to ‘normal’ anytime soon and b) the longer the life support goes on, the weaker the remaining business becomes, with the particular risk that the quality of the loan book will deteriorate if the housing market turns down.
Of course, no-one can rely on pre-crunch conditions returning, but it’s possible that the market for mortgage debt will improve eventually. The quality of the loan book certainly could fall - but you’d have to see a massive turndown before it became seriously discredited. The current situation isn’t sustainable for more than a few months, but, if the worst comes to the worst, NR could be converted into a closed business concerned with running down its loan book over the long term, either by keeping them until maturity or by piecemeal disposal, with shareholders (and some of the other creditors, although not the BofE) bearing the brunt of any loss. The retail banking functions would be sold for what they can fetch.
118 if the bird flu in Norfolk spreads, [turkeys] may become much more expensive
…. or cheaper on the other hand?
113.
113 - presumably only due to the “3 words” competitions though?
GB: “Going, going, gone”
DC: “Outserve Margaret Thatcher?”
(that would send a chill down the spines of some of our Labour posters, wouldn’t it…?)
Another cop shot in Northern Ireland.. two now in less than a week.
Assuming it isnt a domestic incident with a jealous wife, I’ll put out a government statement in advance….should they care to release one.
‘These micro groups have no support, both electorally and in the community. They are trying to drag Northern Ireland back to dark times….’
News to government:
a) it doesnt matter if they dont have much electoral support.
b) They do have support, more than you think within elements of their communities.
Note to those writing off the Great Leader…
The Tories may well be surging ahead in the polls, but they still don’t have anything even remotely resembling a majority. As we see from this (slightly belated) edition of the ‘poll of polls’:
Current ‘poll of polls’ (featuring the mean results from the most recent Populus/MORI/ICM/ComRes/YouGov polls) gives Conservatives 40.2 (+0.6%), Labour 35.6 (+-), Liberal Democrats 14.8 (-1%)*
Putting these figures through both Wells/Baxter and averaging out the results gives us an HoC result of Lab304, Con296, Lib22 which would leave Labour 20 short of a majority and with casualties including Home Sec. Jacqui Smith, Jim Knight, Andrew Slaughter and our own Nick Palmer.
The Lib Dems would lose such luminaries as Chris Huhne, Shadow Foreign Sec Michael Moore, Julia Goldsworthy, Lynne Featherstone, Susan Kramer, John Hemming, and Withington’s John Leech (back to Lab).
*Figures are given in relation to the average reading when the last poll (Populus 5/11/07) came out.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that the seats in the HoC would see the Tories up six on last time, Labour down three, and the Lib Dems down two (although they’re into the teens if one takes the reading solely from Baxter.
127 Strangely, you appear to have chosen to ignore the most recent ICM poll, showing the Tories 8% ahead.
127 - pretty sure the Conservatives would be on the verge of a majority on those figures.
It is worth revisiting a Labour Party Political Broadcasts from the 30s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnxPuidq1qQ
It puts Gordon Browns nose picnic in a different light.
Bird flu discovered!?
Do I hear of a…. duh duh duuuuh…. COBRA meeting being planned, anyone?
129 PfP - nope, the ICM poll was included along with the rest of the figures. The thing with averaging out the polls is that it takes more time for public opinion to be seen than it does in a single poll. Plus, rogue polls merely affect the average rather than being headline grabbing statistics.
If the next few polls from the various pollsters reflect the huge ICM lead, then the ‘poll of polls’ (I need a more catchy name) will reflect that with a Conservative majority (no matter how small)
131 - and here’s the Tory leader telling us all to vote for the Ramsay MacDonald!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UL5AOgqWLQ
127.
“Putting these figures through both Wells/Baxter”
You might as well stick them through a cheese grater. Can’t we have SOME degree of intellectual quality-control here?
133 - somebody here used to produce a catchly named “poll of polls” - I think it was an acronymn called F*CK or something.
135 - If you want the more accurate figures (and your desired quality-control), then stick with the percentages. I’m sure there’s more than a few of us who are interested in an (admittedly rough) look at how the seats might fall. Yes, we can talk about Lib Dem incumbency, but until an electoral calculus is designed to take this into account, then we might as well play around with the best that we’ve got.
136 - Indeed. It is tempting to refer to the poll of polls as something along the lines of NSiVFaFaL (Nicholas Soames is Very Fat And Farts A Lot), but I’ll leave that to those who have gone before.
137 NSiVFaFaL, eh?
Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue…
138 - Indeed not. I might just stick with ‘Poll of Polls’ until I think up a JackW-worthy acronym.. At least it does what’s said on the tin.
Peter the Punter @ 138.
We all know you loved to tongue Jack’s ARSE.
I’ll get me coat ..
108 - I don’t dislike the FSA. I spent several years working in pensions and insurance dealing with complaints and reviews. The FSA does clog up the industry with its rather OTT regulation - enforcing every EU directive far too much. But when it matters, the FSA is pretty toothless. Other countries do it better.
The FSA is not an inept as the Ombudsman Service, however, which really does seem to be staffed by morons.
137 - how about-
Weekly Average of No C(K?)onsequence (sorry wasn’t trying to demean your poll of polls, was just going for the acrynomn)
It is of course ludicrous to write off Gordon at this point.
The Conservatives have finally moved onto Labour’s ground, having accepted state health and education, and we don’t hear any more about patients’ passports, education vouchers or similar rubbish. But the dividing lines are still there. Housing is a case in point, a hugely significant issue that directly affects millions of electors’ lives. Labour is actively taking steps to build more houses for sale and encouraging more rental accommodation to come onto the market too. The Tory approach is still basically - don’t build any more houses (or least nowhere near me, old boy).
Flexible working is another area where the Tories have appeared to change but they lack credibility because they voted against Labour’s introduction of maternity and paternity leave (a product of those nasty Europeans and that evil social chapter, which they are pledged to withdraw from.)
Dave Cameron made a huge issue about being green originally but the environment and climate change are always going to be issues that socialists, who don’t have any hang-ups about collective solutions, will find it easier to handle. Dave may be sincere about the climate change issue, but what about his party? I notice for example the squeals of indignation from Mr Dale whenever there’s a programme about climate change on the BBC - he and many of his fellow bloggers still believe that such views should be “balanced” by flat-earthers and loonies.
And I think events will continue to prove that Gordon’s got the breath of vision and experience for the job. Afghanistan continues to be a huge challenge and Gordon’s approach which is oriented to economic development and building alliances will be more effective than Blair’s onward-Christian-soldiers approach. There is also a huge diplomatic challenge on the horizon before George W Bush quits if he attempts to attack Iran, and again I think Brown will rise to this.
133 *Figures are given in relation to the average reading when the last poll (Populus 5/11/07) came out.
BR, I’m confused - your asterisked note above, at the foot of post #127, suggests that polls up to 5 Nov were included and therefore the ICM poll which appeared in yesterday’s Sunday Express was excluded.
133 *Figures are given in relation to the average reading when the last poll (Populus 5/11/07) came out.
BR, I’m confused - your asterisked note above, at the foot of post #127, suggests that polls up to 5 Nov were included and therefore the ICM poll which appeared in yesterday’s Sunday Express was excluded.
139. Billy Ruffian. What about POP?
Oops, sorry for duplication.
146 stjohn - good, late win for Villa - season’s points bet looking good, thanks.
141 SBS
My only direct experience of the FSA arose from a dispute with Sporting Index over a spread bet. SI actually agreed with my complaint but said their hands were tied by the FSAct, so I referred to the FSA. They suggested a compromise settlement, which we were all happy with.
Make of that what you will.
148. Yes Peter they are edging up the table nicely.
Billy Ruffian @ 139.
Cumulative Results of Averaged Polls - CRAP ?
I thought bets aren’t covered by any law? Or is that just another thing i’ve got wrong…. Do spread bets count as “not bets”?
151- good work.
143
How can there be a “a huge diplomatic challenge on the horizon before George W Bush quits if he attempts to attack Iran”
If war comes, diplomacy has failed. Full stop.
You appear to be reading the gospel according to Milliblog:-)
If GWB decides to bomb Iran, we can say goodbye to $100 oil… hello $150…
137. Describing these number-crunchers as ‘the best we’ve got’ is rather like describing the plum pudding theory of atomic matter? It’s garbage in, garbage out isn’t it. These calculators do NOT cope with three party politics at all and, more importantly, the different ways in which the electorate in about 150 seats deal with it. Lib Dem seats have gone up as their voted have gone down more than once (and vice versa)
Any decent pollster who wanted to work out what would be the likely outcome of a polling day would poll subsets of these ’special’ seats with incumbent- and squeeze-focused questions, then integrate the outcome with a ‘normal’ poll from the other seats. But they’re just too lazy. The present garbage satisifies the media who pay for it and gives the bookies someting to play with.
143 Brown Caused the housing crisis by promoting unlimited immigration and encouraging buy to let investors.
Flexible working has nothing to do with Maternity/paternity leave.
The solution to changing behaviour in order to deal with climate change is far more likely to be done through making incentives to behave well and disincentives for behaving badly (environmentally speaking) I see nothing socialist in that.
Brown is totally out of his depth in foreign affairs. So far we have had nothing as yet about afghanistan, cheap stunts in relation to Iraq and showboating in regard to Darfur and Burma.
152 Spread bets are different, Steven, precisely because they are covered by the F.S.Act. They are contracts, and enforceable, unlike your bets at the track, which are informal and unenforceable.
The curiosity is why spread betting profits are not taxable. I know the Revenue wouldn’t want it, because they would have to allow losses too, but I have never seen any logical reason why not.
Detail from the Sunday Express ICM poll is now on line.
Comparison of 2005 Voters (small sample and we are talking 1’s & 2’s for minor party votes)
Conservatives retain 96%, lose 3% to LDs, (1% to Greens)
Labour retain 82%, lose 12% to Conservatives, 4% to LDs (1% to SNP and 1% to Greens)
Lib Dems retain 59%, lose 22% to Conservatives and 16% to Labour (2% to UKIP)
For fun - comparison of Regional Votes from last ICM before 2005 GE & Sunday’s poll (Table before adjustment for DKs or refusers - which would before adjustment for those have produced a 10% Cameron lead last Sunday )
North - Conservatives up 6% from 27% to 33%, Labour down 3% from 44% to 41%, LDs down 2% from 19% to 17%
Midlands - Conservatives up 16% from 33% to 49%, Labour down 6% from 39% to 33%, LDs down 8% from 19% to 11%
South - Conservatives up 16% from 36% to 52%, Labour no change at 31%, LDs down 14% from 27% to 13%
So Labour down a bit mostly in Midlands, Conservatives up a lot in South & Midlands, Lib Dems hit very hard in the South. Others squeezed though SNP (on tiny sample) up from 5% to 9% in North.
Brown vote retention at 82% not too bad - compares well with recent polls.
157 - thanks for that Ptp - I did after all have some of it right in my head.
157 PtP - I agree and shouldn’t the same logically apply also to exchange betting in terms of being able to trade positions?
Fresh off Iain Dale’s blog this evening:
A Foreign Office friend of mine has just emailed me Gordon Brown’s speech tonight. The message on the email read: “This is so bad, it could almost have been written by the boy Miliband”.
Another collector’s item from the “Gordon Tries Smiling” video collection. Gordon Does Diwali!
http://www.youtube.com/DowningSt
The Gordon Grin turns into Grim Gordon - boucy opening then seems to fall into the “concerned” mode and sounds and looks like its bad news rather than a celebration
161 Tricky, PfP. There’s certainly a case there, but I see exchange betting as more like a pool, so maybe not.
What I think you can say is that the present tax treatment is inconsistent and outmoded.
154. Iran - the UK is influential because of its good diplomatic contacts in Iran and its leverage in Washington and Europe. It is difficult to imagine that the US would act unil