Is Dave winning the battle for the elderly?
November 13th, 2007
Are the silver voters behind the Tory surge?
The weekend ICM poll for the Sunday Express poll was so exceptional that it is worth looking in some detail at the data which is now available.
And the striking feature for me is the split amongst those aged 65 years and above - the pensioner group. For the 61% Tory score against 24% for Labour and just 7% for the Lib Dems is really quite amazing. Normally the older you are the more Conservative you are inclined to be but I cannot recall a survey when this proportion has exceeded 60%.
Even last March when ICM was reporting a 10% Tory lead only 51% of the 65+ segment said they would vote for Cameron’s party.
What’s particularly important about the over 65s is that they are much more inclined to vote than those who are younger. Thus in this poll 70% said they were “certain” to turn out compared with 59% for the 35-64 group, 40% for the 25-34s and just 19% for the 18-24s.
So shifts in opinion amongst the elderly can have a disproportionate impact on electoral outcomes. As a group they have to be taken very seriously and as life expectancy grows they will become even more significant.
Of course I acknowledge that like with all these sub-sets we have to be careful about drawing too many conclusions and we need to see further polls to assess whether this is a trend. But that boost from this segment was the reason the overall numbers were so good for the Tories.
Notes on the figures: the figures in the table I’ve reproduced do not include ICM’s spiral of silence adjustment. This is where the pollsters allocates 50% of the votes of those who refused or said “don’t know” in line with what they said they did in 2005. Also the figures in the table are notional. They are based on scaling back the numbers in line with with how certain people said it was that they would vote. Thus if a respondent rated this at 70% then they would only be counted as 0.7 of a person. Those putting their certainty level at 60% or below are not counted at all.
Mike Smithson
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With a sub-sample size of only 125, I guess that’s just the 1-in-20 rogue result which doesn’t mean anything.
But Oi! I’ve just arrived and put a message in the previous thread, and you’re sabotaging me already! Why do I so often end up on the end of threads where I might not be noticed? Can’t you wait until 4am as usual?
But anyway, it doesn’t really matter anyway in any meaningful way because it’s just tinkering at the edges of the trinkets with which the oppressed classes are bought off by the hierarchical imperialist bourgeoisie.
25 to 34 age group is also interesting. it is favourable to Cameron at 44 against Labour 30.
Lib Dem are at their highest, 27 in this age group. In the younger age group, 18 to 24, they are only at 15. It seems that their support is withering at the top and bottom of the age ranges.
Another point of interest, UKIP has almost no female support. Whatever happened to Joan Collins?
3 Yes, the 61% support from the “silver” voters does seem remarkable. Also, looking at the data, the unweighted base of 553 interviewees appears only around half of the normal sample size of such polls and the number of females significantly exceeded the number of males interviewed - could this have had any significant impact on the results?
re 3. The 553 is a notional figure based on scaling back the numbers in line with with how certain people said it was that they would vote. Thus if a respondent rated this at 70% then they would only be counted as 0.7 of a person.
So the sample size on which this is based is bigger than might appear.
JohnLoony at 1 is reading this wrongly as well.
When was the last time the Conservatives were ahead with 18-24 year olds?
These voters are also more likely to be dead at the time of the next election.
The low figure for the Lib Dems in the 18-24 groups is also possibly due to the large standard deviation because of the small sub-group sample size (even if the figure of 42 represents 100 or 150 actual people).
Could it have something to do with the (now broken) promise to link pensions to wages - conveniently forgotten in Darling’s CSR?
mirthios @ 8 re pensions/wages — unlikely since that issue has been around for a long time. I’d be looking for a recent trigger: clocks going back, colder weather, fireworks till midnight for a month. Maybe a combination of cold weather and Christmas adverts concentrating minds on how to pay the bills. I suspect the parties will use focus groups to try and work out what is going on here.
Interesting stuff as usual Mike. And what about the female vote? Over the summer we had the phenomenon of women apparently falling for Brown’s apparent serious intelligence, but what has happened since? Thanks for any illumination you can give.
OT — The Public Accounts Committee has criticised overspending on science.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/sci/tech/7090906.stm
PAC Chairman Edward Leigh said it was “alarming” that two of the six most advanced projects had gone “a whopping 80%” over budget.
Hmm. And the Scottish Parliament? NHS IT?
“The teams who plan and take forward these projects must have the project management expertise and commercial skills to deliver them to time and budget.”
Yeah, right.
John L @ 9. Thanks, but I can assure you - as a state pensioner myself - that we are not all quite so short sighted. You may have seen
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/13/cnpens113.xml
which starts with the rather stunning news that we British have the worst state pensions in the whole of Europe for the second year running. That is something we have to live with every day.
re 6. True - those in the 65+ age group are more likely to be dead by election time than those in other age groups. But the pace of demographic change means that the deceased are likely to be replaced by even greater numbers of people reaching that age. There will be a sharp increase in time for the election after next when the “baby boomers” cross the threshold.
5 Matt - last months ICM for the Sunday Telegraph also showed a lead in this age group. You only have to look at political affiliations on facebook to realise there is a great deal of sympathy for the Tories in the next generation.
5 - Yes, that’s a massive change Cameron has achieved, compared with the past couple of decades at least.
14 - A generation of politically engaged people having to pay their way through university and have high levels of personal debt from an early age (with little obvious short term gains), are inevitably going to be more sympathetic to the Tories and less tolerant of state subsidies for other groups of people.
16 (con) - i would argue that is a more relevant point than specific attraction to Cameron (although obviously he doesn’t put them off).
The short term effects of top up fees were an attraction to parties pledging to abolish them. Over time however, now they are becoming established, there will be limited political capital to be made for this position (after all no party is pledging to abolish fees retrospectively. ) But the shifts in underlying political outlook that they have generated will be far more long lasting.
I can’t think why pensioners are so hostile to Labour. The way they are carrying on, you’d think that Gordon Brown had made a raid on Pension funds!
(As if he would)
Rob my pension and I won’t vote for you. Simple.
Another way of looking at the figures is from Labour’s perspective - what’s been propping up their reasonably good share of the vote (compared with both a traditional mid-term performance, and the late Blair years), is support from the 35-60 age group.
Put simply, these are the people with growing children, mortgages and career jobs. I would guess they are the group most sensitive to the economic ups and downs: a steadily growing economy provides funding for public services which they or their children visibly receive, it keeps them in jobs (or from the fear of losing theirs and not being able to find another), and it keeps the mortgage payments down. If there is a downturn, I would expect Labour to be hit hardest in this age-group, unless Gordon and Alistair decide to deliberately target pensioners, which I don’t think he will.
To me, it seems that more than ever, Labour is reliant on the economy if it is to win the next election.
o/t Brian Paddick has been selected as Lib Dem mayoral candidate according to BBC London.
“…do not include ICM’s spiral of silence adjustment.”
ALL C 45%, Lab 35%, LD 14%.
We are getting close to the point where half the voters are indicating an intention to vote Conservative. Remarkable considering they get less than half that level in Scotland.
Presumably in England the polling share for Conservatives is 1% or 2% higher?
I was wondering what the age groups corresponded to in terms of years born and years grown up in. Is it hardly that surprising that the generation who grew up in the 80s show a lower level of Tory support than those who come before or after?
I guess that the 60+ also have the pension fund issue. If the papers that seemed to be popular with my grandparents continue to bang on about pension time bombs etc, then that has to have some effect, no?
22. He got 73% of first preferences.
He’s apparently set to publish his autobiography 3 weeks before the vote revealing all “the sort of experiences he had, both professionally and privately”
25.
So is he a footballer?
22. Fantastic - the Lib Dems commit suicide once again.
PS How long is Jacqui Smith going to last?
Reading anything into these subsets is worthless , as Anthony Wells points out these sub samples are not weighted and one month a large majority of the 65+ subgroup may be males living in the North and the next month females living in the South . Only the full sample is properly weighted .
Interestingly this particular ICM seems to be a rogue , the previous ComRes/Populus and ICM polls had the following raw data figures for LibDems
ComRes 9.8% with 11.9% having voted LibDem in 2005
Populus 10.2% with 12.0% having voted LibDem in 2005
ICM 10.5% with 11.6% having voted LibDem in 2005
Consistent results as you would expect from almost identical data collection . The difference in published poll figures is almost entirely due to the variations in weighting between the 3 companies . ICM would have published 17% for LibDems with ComRes raw data and 18% with Populus raw data .
The new ICM poll only had 7.9% LibDems with 9.4% having voted LibDem in 2005 . Clearly for some reason this particular poll sample contained a much smaller sample than it should have of people who voted LibDem in 2005 .
Another couple of days till I get back Internet access at new flat .
Anyone know if the greater propensity of the 65+ year olds to actually vote, fully taken into account in the weightings used by ICM?
20 Guido wrote “Rob my pension and I won’t vote for you. Simple.”
Yes Pensions and also IHT on the minds of the 65+.
But the real impact of the collapse in private sector pensions will be felt by the 40-50 yr olds as they seek to retire without the extensive final salary schemes that a lot of their elders have. At present this group is almost equally split between C and Lab. As they get closer to retirement, the pension issue will grow and Labour will get more of the blame.
Aunt Sally - the Tories are the ones that have “committed suicide” by picking Boris! I doubt very much anybody will defeat Ken but I have a feeling Paddick might surpass the LD’s expectations.
It’s easy to see why anyone concerned about pensions might not be inclined vote Labour. It’s harder, perhaps, to see why they would assume that the Tories would try to correct the problem.
27 Not very long. Jacqui Smith to make a statement to the house at 3.30. it turns out these illegal immigrants were guarding public sector building. makes a mockery of Home Office comments yesterday that immigration status was the responsibility of the employer!!
Expect another secret internal inquiry at the home office and all responsibility to be ducked.
mirthios @ 12 — pensions may be an issue but do not explain a sudden change in voting intentions. For that, there must have been some trigger factor shortly before this last poll, perhaps one of the candidates I suggested, perhaps not. It may of course be that whatever this factor is, it operates to give greater salience to low pensions.
33….and Nick Palmer to come on here telling us how this group of highly skilled security guards is vital to Britain’s prosperity.
35 after his central office directed bleat about ashcroft you mean….
27 Aunt Sally - You’re back!
I offered to take up your offer of a bet a little while back, but I didn’t see a response. Did you miss it, or think better of it?
…of course; after all that is the subject that is at the top of voters’ concerns, not a minor issue like immigration.
re 27 or even Dawn Primarolo. it’s now the second time in a week she’s been interviewed on the Today programme. I thought Patricia H sounded hectoring and nannying but she must have been taking lessons off Dawn.
34.Not sure that it was a trigger factor shortly before this last poll, I think that it is more likely a combination of the prolonged fall out of Brown bottling an Autumn election. I think that it highlighted a weakness of character which could be turn off for many older voters.
34 John L, IHT if you are looking for a single issue.
The Tories are ahead by 3% in the 18-24 age group?
Even though I am within this age group and will vote Conservative I am still suprised Cameron is ahead.
The number of NEETS has risen since Labour came to power and the large number of young migrants has not helped.
CON GAIN LEEDS NORTH WEST!
CON GAIN CAMBRIDGE!
big jump in inflation +2.1%
22, 25 I suggest a suitable title for Brian Paddock’s biography would be “From Nowhere to Oblivion”.
OT What will a “tumbling” housing market do to Brown’s already rapidly deteriorating popularity?
From today’s FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20d093be-915c-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Furthermore, with inflation back above 2% and rising, it looks like any interest rate cuts are a non-starter.
Oh dear, what’s happening to Gordon’s “economic miracle”?
43- 1.8% to 2.1%, not up by 2.1%!
46 sorry. thought it was obvious
Pensioners have probably by now forgotten the fact, that it was the Tories, that broke the link with earnings in the first place.
The government should have done more the re-establish that link, promising to have it back in time for the next GE.
In view of the big increase in oil prices, the winter fuel payment, should be raised from £200.0 to £300.00. This payment is very popular with the elderly, as Hague and Portillo found out, when they said they would scrap it.
44. It’s remarkable that the Lib Dems would choose an even more extreme version of the discredited ‘PC Copper’ Ian Blair as their candidate for this post.
23. Why weren’t those the reported headline figures then?
Am I being dumb??
[45] I think the explanation for these poll numbers is that voters have realised that economic adversity under Labour is wholly due to government incompetence, while when the same thing happens under the Conservatives it is of course market forces playing themselves out.
This demonstrates a level of political and economic maturity in the English electorate unmatched anywhere else in the world or at any other time in human history.
re 43/46 indeed not - inflation is up by 33%
re 52 or even 17%!
I think HF is right that if we want to identify an issue likely to interest pensioners more than most it’s IHT. On the other hand, you don’t have to be Labour to feel that it’s risky to put too much weight on one unweighted subsample of one poll. For example, the subsample suggests that there is not a single elderly BNP voter anywhere in Britain: nice though that would be, I fear not. HF’s speculation that the Tories are close to 50% in England is in the same category - let’s have another couple of polls and then see, eh?
Is there any longitudinal research on how and why voters change over time? The general current pattern seems to be that young voters are highly volatile, baby-boomers with kids tend to be more Labour (perhaps because they trust Labour more on schools, or simply that they were radical when young), and older voters tend to be more Tory (perhaps because they’re more alienated from change - immigration, for instance - and find the Tories more reassuring). Either this pattern will change (and it doesn’t seem to) or there comes a point when people think implicitly “OK, I’m 65, it’s time to be more Tory”. Leaving out the facile stuff (”it’s because they’re wiser”, “they’re losing the plot”, etc.) and the short-term stuff, why is this an enduring phenomenon?
Incidentally, both Labour and Tory core vote seems strongest among pensioners - the “I always vote X regardless” response is something you almost never hear from anyone under 65.
36: sp - Labour doesn’t have a “Central Office”. Another party does - perhaps the slip reflects your affiliation?
39 - I’m sure it’s not intentional but there’s something about Dawn’s delivery which always makes it sound as if she’s really trying hard to keep her temper/the person she’s talking to is an idiot.
Jacqui Smith is coming under increasing pressure today over the illegal immigrants working as security guards. She was already building a reputation for being way out of her depth and now she is being accused of a “cover up”.
Out before Christmas?
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1292607,00.html
2
Another point of interest, UKIP has almost no female support. Whatever happened to Joan Collins?
Has she eloped with Boris?
56. At this rate Labour will have to turn to Nick Palmer as Home Secretary. At least he has had a good run over recent months rehearsing the various official lies about immigration on this site.
Re 49: Read this and then think again about the impact Brian Paddick might make on the Mayor of London Campaign (let alone Sir Ian Blair’s chances of keeping his job if he is still holding on when the book comes out!):
http://news.independent.co.uk/people/profiles/article623249.ece
[57] Not even Boris deserves that fate…
and RPI inflation is up to 4.2%
54 NickP “Leaving out the facile stuff (”it’s because they’re wiser”….)”
Actually, it is not facile. Most of us get less left-wing as we get older. Even you have, as you pointed out to your credit (sincere compliment) in a previous thread.
60
Thought it might explain where he his, he seems to have disappeared. Last seen try to gain acess to Hillary Clinton’s underwear draw!
54 - Nick Palmer, the Conservative “Central Office” (if that’s the party to which you are alluding) hasn’t existed for several years now. It has been known as Conservative Campaigns Headquarters ever since leaving Smith Square
59. Well it’s clear that he may have the capacity to embarass ‘Sir’ Ian…
…. but otherwise that article suggests he is a loose cannon with highly controversial views and a distinctly chequered past. I can see how that makes him well suited to being a Lib Dem candidate :), but I can’t see how that will help him do very well in the Mayoral elections.
62 It’s the loss of all those brain cells that in the end catch up with you and leave you in a depressed, reactionary right wing heap, where all you can say is “I know who I blame it’s the ……..” (fill in the blanks).
58
It looks like Brown’s “Government of all the talents” is turning into Government of all the incompetents
61- BBC say its 3.1%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7092144.stm
68 That’s RPIX; the BBC is amazingly shit at reporting basic information these days. And they’re put adverts all over the site when you are abroad.
Morning all
Mike’s point about the “older” voters is one most serious political observers have seen or are well aware of. For me, the interesting issue on these polls is how badly the Conservatives do in the 35-64 age group and in similar areas among the 40s in particular.
I’m 46 and I was therefore 18 when Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister. While I know many younger and older friends who are or say they are Tories, I know very few of my contemporaries who are. It will be interesting to see if this anti-Tory bias remains in effect in twenty years or so as it may then be the case that the older vote is anti-Tory rather than pro-Tory.
The corollary, of course, is the strength of the anti-Labour vote among the 20 and 30 somethings. It is, I think, a feature of long periods of Government by one party that a residual contempt for that party remains among the electorate for a long time after.
I would also contend that many of today’s older voters saw the experience of the 60s and 70s and developed an abiding suspicion of Labour.
Finally, delighted to see Brian Paddick chosen as LD Mayoral candidate for London. No one should underestimate Ken Livingstone’s political strength in the capital - his vote has and no doubt still does transcend Labour’s. I remain to be convinced whether Boris will get enough second preferences from LD, Green, Respect (presumably) and others to overhaul Ken.
56 Jacqui Smith. This story reads more like something from a Tom Sharpe novel. What is the point of ID cards when the Govt cannot be bothered to check whether the security people it employs are illegal immigrants?
“The scandal broke only at the weekend, when it emerged that one worker was even sent to guard Gordon Brown’s car, while 11 more were at Scotland Yard.”
and then there is the cover up for PR reasons quoted from an email from her own PS.
“She did not agree that the lines to take (PR spin) that we currently have are good enough for the Press Office or Ministers to use…” 9 Aug 07.
Above from Daily Mail.
66 “It’s the loss of all those brain cells that in the end catch up with you and leave you in a depressed, reactionary right wing heap, where all you can say is “I know who I blame it’s the ……..” (fill in the blanks).”
I wouldn’t let Jonathan talk about you like that, Nick!
67 Have we moved from G.O.A.Ts to G.O.A.T.I s?
Govt Of All The Incompetents?
71. It could be that Labour ministers feel more comfortable being guarded by illegal immigrants - who might conceivably feel some warmth toward them - rather than indigenous Britons…
54: Nick, instead of getting all obsessed with Ashcroft and ‘central Office’ you should be asking why your party is scoring massive own goals illegal immigrants working as security guards, or slogans borrowed from the BNP.
Is there a book on when La Smith will resign?
As an alternative, is there a book on who will be the next minister to leave the government?
75. Is being a security guard really a ‘British’ job in this day and age?
Surely 10 years of New Labour has put an end to that kind of thing.
Re: The RPI & CPI figures. I have one word to sum up a possible scenario due, though I would see it as short term before inflationary pressures eventually ease and the slow in the economy and inflation start to get into synch.
Stagflation.
For those who think this is a WW2 German prisoner of war camp check again…
70
Thats if Boris, who has morphed from the, ‘Invincible Candidate’ to the, ‘Invisible Candidate’ bothers to turn up.
Very interesting analysis from Mike.
Labour has a good story to tell for older people about its long-term policies which include :
-Reverting to indexing the state pension with incomes rather than prices
-Introduction of age discrimination legislation
-New saving vehicles for employers/employees with automatic enrolment
-Raising the state pension age to balance the contributions of the working and non-working population
but isn’t getting the message over. I hope Mike O’Brien the latest pensions minister reads your analysis.
Indeed Labour presentation to the over 65s has let it down badly to date. There is quite a lot there for this group.
80. ‘We aren’t getting our message across’…oh dear…sounds more and more like the dog days of the Major government…
80: Doesn’t ‘Labour has a good story to tell’ just sum up this Government perfectly?
82,83 What it is to be blasted by the devastating critique from Aunt Sally and Ralph (I assume) Wiggum.
[80] My dear Captain, it was pointed out earlier in the thread that Labour abandoned its plan to link pensions to incomes in the Comprehensive Spending Review. Do try to keep up.
78
Anyone with memeories of the Heath government remembers when the term stagflation came into common usage. Still I’m sure Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne, (Mr Boom and Mr Bust) will put it back on our lips, when once again we are ruled by the heirs of Mr Barber.
85
So who exactly removed the link in the first place?
re 68, but that’s what not the ONS say. The BBC figures are obviously wrong as they have the September RPI figure wrong as well.
86. What a pathetic post.
89
Stung then!
86. Theres warnings that the issue faces the threat as well from no less than Stan the Man Bernanke.
If it comes about, the question is do the government have any levers to pull to help the economy in such a situation, provide some stimulus, or have they given themselves no room to do so without fat tax hikes which won’t stimulate anything.
37 Aunt Sally
Third and final offer, Sally. My post at 37 refers.
90. If you really think so, you are even more deluded than I thought.
This is a topic close to my heart.
What with boring stuff like having to work today can’t say much at the moment.
Aside to say, yes this is significant. Labour overturned an historical deficit with the over 65s in 1997,held that lead in 2001 and the tories only just nudged in front in 2005. Pensioners account for around 1/4 of turnout, big swings in this group will see a lot of seats change hands, and there are a lot of Lab-Con marginals with higher numbers of grey voters.
No, don’t agree people get more capital c conservative in old age,it’s all about cohorts, but haven’t time to argue the point, but data suggests boomers are much more socially liberal than today’s “old”, and they’re not going to change a lifetime of belief the moment they hit 65.
Laters.
93
IfIi hadn’t you wouldn’t have bothered commenting!
I read your posts I think they are pathetic, but I’ve never bothered replying, ‘cos they aren’t worth replying to.
92 Talk is cheap and Aunt Sally seems to want to be the cheapest of them all. It the words of a great Tory, AS it’s time to “Put up or shut up.”
My wife and I are retired and live in a country town in the South West. We vote Conservative. Several of our neighbours are retired and, judging from conversations with them, I would guess that they vote Conservative too.
For what it’s worth, when politics is on the conversational agenda, immigration is the biggest concern, even though ethnic minorities are thin on the ground in these parts.
Contempt for political correctness runs it a close second.
Given that immigration is not a real problem for you why in your opinion is it the number one topic of conversation in your area? Is it what’s on the TV or what you see when you go to London etc. Or is it rumours and hear say?
74 LOL!
There’s a very long-standing tendency for people to become more conservative (and Conservative) as they get older. There used to be a slightly off-setting tendency for pensioners to vote Liberal, because they’d voted Liberal when young, before the party collapsed.
What’s new I think is the very sharp difference in turnout between the elderly and the young, which certainly assists the Conservative Party.
WRT specific issues, pensioners are probably more interested in seeing that the rates of return on their savings beats inflation, rather than looking for increased old age pensions.
96. You seem easily rattled. Something to do with your party’s dismal recent performance, perhaps?
Is it really true that re-linking pensions to earnings has been scrapped? I can hardly believe it - if so this is massive! Why hasnt it been all over the press?
Can anyone explain what levers the government have available to stimulate the economy in the event of a stagnation period (and possibly still rising inflation) that won’t involve them either borrowing a ton more or having to put up taxes to pay for the stimulus?
Just curious. Thanks
“No, don’t agree people get more capital c conservative in old age,it’s all about cohorts, but haven’t time to argue the point, but data suggests boomers are much more socially liberal than today’s “old”, and they’re not going to change a lifetime of belief the moment they hit 65.”
The process is a gradual one. The Conservatives came third among 18-34 year olds in October 1974, but will have led among the same group of voters, 31 years later, in 2005.
Likewise, young people had the most liberal views on immigration in the Sixties and Seventies, but now have the most conservative views as they approach or reach retirement.
86: I’m not sure how effective the ‘in the past the Tories’ line of argument is any more both because it comes across as diversionary tactics, and many people can’t remember Heath as PM
70 stodge, A recognisable portrait of the early 40 year olds.
The fact that there is an indication that amongst 35-64 yr olds the Conservatives have drawn level is all the more remarkable.
The one for the future is the split in the 25-34 which will tend to be voting more often as they get older. A massive lead for the Conservatives vs Labour with the LDs doing well here.
Cs at 40% of the 18-24, should be a surprise with the tendency of the young to be left leaning. But it is in line with local canvassing which has seen an increase in the C vote in this age range.
Pensioners dying of cold was a regular occurrence under the Tories.
It is the Labour government that introduced the winter fuel payments which has saved many lives.
100 Aunt Sally
Is there some reason why you do not answer the posts I address to you? It seems a little rude, since I took the trouble to respond to you.
106 Pensioners dying of cold is a regular occurence in the Winter.
108 Indeed, So how does a govt respond to this?
Tory Govt. Slap VAT on winter fuel bills.
Labour Govt. Give £200 winter fuel allowance to pensioners
I wonder which helped most?
109. Plus minimum income guarantee.
106 - rubbish. You meant to say:
“which has helped fund winter holidays, Christmas presents, stocking up on booze, a slap up meal, etc”
Instead of Brown’s stunt-ish handouts for all (winter fuel handout, free TV licences etc), he should be putting the money towards raising the basic pension for those in real need.
102. Reduce regulation and costs on business?
109: Giving all pensioners from the Duke of Somewhere to a widow in a flat in Bow the same amount of money is wasteful and doesn’t target those in actual need.
42: “CON GAIN LEEDS NORTH WEST!
CON GAIN CAMBRIDGE!”
Come on, do it properly. When Ave It 07 makes predictions, he does it for the Barnsleys and Knowsleys of this world. Not seats the Tories are likely to take back anyway on current form.
111. My Dad spent his allowance on a trip to the races.
111 Are you seriously saying that people turn down the heater to pay for booze, presents, dining out with their heating payment?
More likely people leave the heater on now, because they don’t have to worry about it.
Quite different to the Tory years when they made specific Dickensian policy to tax people who kept warm over winter.
This is one change that the Labour party is rightly proud of. Does any Tory here advocate reversing the policy? Abolish the payment and reinstate the Tory Tax.
101. I’m wondering about this too. Innocent Abroad, (85) can you point out where in the Comprehensive Spending Review this change is spelt out? I’ve had a quick look at the review but I can’t find specific references to pension indexation.
108. No it isnt not anymore. No one dies, they just go missing at night and are not seen anymore. No one can prove thats a death because of cold…….
102. Thats one option.
Any others?
116: ‘Does any Tory here advocate reversing the policy?’
Yes. I think the money should be targetted at those who really need it not those who use it for other purposes or feel they can be wasteful.
116 - come on Jonathan, even you’re not that obtuse. My old man got his cheque last month and has already booked a holiday. Fair play to him. But to suggest that pensioners put the cash in a special fund ring-fenced for paying heating bills is the most laughable thing I’ve read on here in a long time.
116. How many working class pensioners on sink estates do you know?
re 99 well male ones at least, no female pensioner ever voted Liberal before the party collapsed.
119 I can see the headline “Tory to put VAT back on fuel shock and introduce means tests for heating payments” Go for it.
117,101,85 The reason that you can’t find the reference is that it isn’t true. The Pensions white paper outlines the policy to link the state pension and the pension credit to earnings clearly. The PBR refers only to the pension credit link because it is beginning to come into effect.
Don’t worry the link is still there.
119 - yep, agree with that. Ditch the headline grabbing stunts, and concentrate on directing means tested benefits to where they are needed.
Hell, if you do that, you may even save a few bob for those of us having to fund it all… (heaven forfend!)
re 106 I’m sure the Duke of Devonshire is appreciative of his as he chucks another log in the fire.
119. I thought the Tory line was to move away from means testing?
I take it you are not in accord with this approach?
120. 121. Jonathan seems to have a rather stereotypical idea of what pensioners are like…presumably built up from years of imbibing Labour propaganda about how they all spend their time sitting in front of a one bar electric fire freezing to death…rather than any experience of reality…
116 I didn’t say that they put into a ring fenced fund. I said that they don’t worry about heating now. How they manage their accounts is irreleveant. Quite a change for many since the Major years. Any other takers for reinstating the Tory heating tax?
re 116 Jonathan you seem to be unaware that there still is VAT on fuel and there’s nothing the government can do to remove it.
126 - never mind that my lad. You concentrate on justifying to me why the Duke of Devonshire should get £200 from Gordon every September. And if he’s over 80, a free TV licence as well.
I await your response with interest…
129. Didn’t the Tories increase VAT on fuel but Labour reduced it again?
re 118 Yokel as you’re here can you comment on the amazings tory I heard on yesterday in parliament this morning, viz that a new peace line is being erected in Belfast. U thought we were sold the line by TB that the Nothern Ireland peace process was a great success?
127 Sally!
You seem happy to answer everybody but me!! What did I do?!
123: I’m happy to have VAT on fuel if it was used to provide poor elderly people with free heating. But if you target the right people rather than just everyone you could do that without any new money.
130. I’m not entirely sure about this but I thought the Tories wanted to have less means testing - please correct me if I’ve got it wrong.
109 Levels of poverty among pensioners fell quite sharply from 1979-97, due to rising house prices, rising share prices, interest rates exceeding inflation, and strong private and occupational pensions.
Contrary to Labour mythology, they weren’t starving/freezing to death in garrets.
re 131 yes, but Jonathan seems naively unware that fuel bills still do carry VAT - perhaps not old enough to pay his own.
Re: 105 - But therein lies the problem as well as the opportunity for the Conservatives, HF. A coalition of the young and the old may be enough to win the next election though we always forget at our peril that Labour voters, though less motivated now, may still turn out on polling day.
Once the Cameron Government is in power, it will face the same issues and challenges as the Brown Government currently. Inevitably, it will fail and will create a new sub-group of anti-Tory voters while the younger voters swing back to Labour and the new anti-Tory Coalition is rebuilt over a five to ten year period.
It is a truism that no Government ever meets the expectations it creates in Opposition. The next Conservative Government will be the same and, at some point, say between 2012 and 2014, it will face the same levels of discontent the current Government faces.
It’s also no coincidence that both the 1970 and 1979 Tory Governments hit serious trouble within a couple of years. I am absolutely convinced that the next Cameron Government will likewise hit a trough after 24-30 months (as the effect of its measures to alleviate the wreckage left by Brown kick in).
I’ll leave Mike to play the short-term markets - I wonder what odds the Tory poll ratings going below 30% within three years of forming the next Government.
129 As an EU-wide tax, VAT is pretty much outside the control of the British government.
135 - I’ve no idea what official Tory thinking is. I’m not a member of the Tory Party and not an activist or party worker. I just vote for ‘em. And I know what my views are.
Do explain your justification re the Duke of Devonshire example, Gabble. It better be a good ‘un.
130,136 If you feel that the Major Tory policy was so good. Reinstate it, please. Go to the country with your means testing policy and get destroyed again. Please do it.
129 Indeed. The Tories introduced VAT on fuel and tied the hands of any future government. Labour reduced it the EU minimum. The Tory track record on VAT is shameful. Confidently expect VAT at 20%+ if the Tories ever get in.
All Tory govts raise VAT.
113: “Giving all pensioners from the Duke of Somewhere to a widow in a flat in Bow the same amount of money is wasteful and doesn’t target those in actual need.”
Then again taxing ALL income and not means testing ANY benefits, would have the same effect as intended by our current morass, would be cheaper to run, and would avoid poverty traps.
132. I assume its the North Belfast one. Just plain champion aint it? Much to comment on here actually but wont be able to until this evening at earliest.
133. He is Peter, no one likes him!
Don’t forget the large increases of tax-free allowance for working pensioners from next April.
142. The ‘Duke of Somewhere’ get the basic pensions aswell.
Are you suggesting we means test the basic pension?
141: Did Churchill’s? Eden’s?
136. Alas, Sean, the elderly were freezing to death, as they still are. Britain has the highest difference between summer and winter death rates for the elderly of any EU country. Lack of decent home insulation is the part of the equation which should be fixed. Unfortunately, children often stop elderly parents taking out cheap, state-sponsored loans to pay for the insulation because it will affect the inheritance!
78
IMO A highly damaging period of stagflation followed by a grim era of deflation is the unpleasant prospect which faces the UK economy I’m afraid. Brown’s profligacy, irresponsibility, and mismanagement was bound to catch up with us eventually.
138 “as the effect of its measures to alleviate the wreckage left by Brown kick in”
I think we are both agreed on something for once - that there will be a need for such alleviating measures in response to the wreckage left by Brown!
Stodge Is there evidence of young people becoming more left wing as they got older under the 18 year Conservative Govt?.
146 Weak defence. Of course, it worth reminding people that it took that lovely Tory Ted Heath to introduce VAT before Thatcher and Major could embrace it so wholeheartedly.
Of course the Tories never tell you they’re going to raise VAT before they do it. I am sure that Cameron has “no plans” to raise or extend VAT.
143 It’s OK thanks, Yokel. I’m used to being ignored by the opposite sex.
And my own.
O/T Genius http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7091904.stm
151: Answer me this question, is it better (a) to give all pensioners a fuel allowance or (b) target it so only those who need it?
151 One can’t scrap VAT without leaving the EU (quite a good argument for leaving the EU IMHO).
151 - seeing as Gabble won’t rise to the bait, can you Jonathan justify why Gordon gives the Duke of Devonshire £200 a year for his “winter fuel”?
154 Ralph, if only people and politics were that simple. What for example about the very large numbers of pensioners who, out of a strong sense of pride, would not apply for the targeted benefit you offer them?
157 - why not scrap all such benefits and handouts and just increase the (taxed) state pension?
I think the most striking thing about these results is that Labour are only ahead in one age group (pro: a large group / con: only by 1%). This would have been unthinkable a year ago.
49 - Paddick might be discredited, but he’s still rather ‘right on’ and suitably liberal. Too liberal, however, for the masses to stomach though, I imagine.
For those who disagreed with me about Gore yestoday I conceed defeat.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/13/betting-journal-liquidate-gore/
158 Yes indeed. General taxation is the gradual and fair way to claim money back from those who need it less.
‘Cool to be a Conservative’ Who would have thought it.
152. Oh man, what misery on a Tuesday morning.
(a) The winter fuel payment is a clear, simple system that delivers financial help to people who need it, when they need it. There is value in delivering this benefit as simple one off payment, because that is what’s required to cover the extra heating costs. The Ronseal approach.
Sure it’s not ideal but there is huge utility in doing it this way for a relatively small one off payment. It is a much greater loss to have one old dear go cold and maybe die, than for the Duke of Earl to get something he doesn’t need. He can always give it to charity if he feels strongly on the matter.
And it’s so very much better than doing it the Tory way and taxing both.
“He can always give it to charity if he feels strongly on the matter.”
Blimey, no wonder this administration is pissing money up the wall left right and centre if that’s official New Labour thinking!
Further on the growing illegal imigrant/security guard scandal: Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics has just ridiculed Jacqui Smith (in her absence as I doubt she would have the bottle to face him) and left her for dead.
Meanwhile BBC News 24 are asking: “when did Brown find out about this…..Downing St. are refusing to answer”
Apparently the hapless Smith has been forced to make a statement in the Commons this afternoon. Will this abject, clearly out-of-her-depth, Minister survive for much longer?
166. The government is fast becoming a comedy show, an object of ridicule and derision.
Why is everyone arguing about winter fuel allowance (worth £200) when Council Tax, which is a much larger amount for most people, has doubled under Labour without any compensation for pensioners apart from in 2005 when Pension Credit claimants were given an extra £200 (for that year only).
Why 2005 you may ask? What was special about that year?
Tush. I should really stop aking these questions and get back to the pointless discussions about winter fuel payments, free tv licences, free eye tests and all the other chaff thrown up by Labour to distract the average pensioner from what really matters.
164 the ’simple’ approach is certainly effective so why not apply it to a host of other payments instead of the amazing complexity foisted on us by Brown’s ‘pensions credit’? These little payments here and there require setting up and managing. If pensioners weren’t paying so much of their income in tax in the first place such bribes wouldn’t be necessary.
Also, compared to the hollowing out of their pensions by Brown the trivial sums thrown contemptuously back at people by their betters in the labour party are meaningless.
168 Indeed, the winter fuel allowance is neither here nor there in terms of pensioners’ incomes and expenditure.
So, who was the first Cabinet Minister to be forced to resign for Blair???
I am sure it wasnt barely six months into his premiership….
There seems to be a slight general misunderstanding of the age group figures here, lack of weightings notwithstanding. The poll shows a 10% conservative lead, so in fact (unless you believe that the next election will be a blue landslide), the figures must be looked at in this light.
Weighting for this, Labour did relatively better than the tories amongst 18-24 (de