What if Jacqui Smith felt she had to go?
November 13th, 2007-
Who is going to be the next one in the job?
This is the Betfair market on the next home secretary which, given the current pressure on Jacqui Smith, might just be something that could take off fast.
I find this a hard call but the chances of her hanging in there until a 2009 or 2010 general election must be pretty slim. So which of the current Labour ministers on the list would get the promotion.
I quite fancy Edward Miliband but 4/1 seems far from generous. Alan Johnson (2/1 favourite) could be asked to switch - he’d probably be a safe pair of hands and could give a bit of stability to a post that has become Labour’s poison chalice.
Mike Smithson
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Isn’t the value bet to lay David Davis?
Perhaps we can get a new betting exchange opened up: How many Home Secretary scalps will be claimed by the next election?
1. Absolutely Henri. Don’t know who would touch the job with a bargepole.
1 Cheeky! don’t think he’s that sort of boy.
If Smith hadn’t just been appointed, think she’d be on her way.
If she does go, I’d go for Benn.
Mike: “I quite fancy Ed Miliband”
Blimey!
OT: on previous thread, RedFlump:
“At least Bob Sykes was honest when he said that Boris was a mistake.”
You’re misquoting me.
I actually said “unmitigated disaster”.
Isn’t it Jacqui Smith Mike?
4. Interesting - Benn is one of the few Labour ministers who doesn’t exude complete incompetence. But would he risk this image by accepting the job?
6 - or “Sack-y” perhaps?
“Jacqui Smith - to be sacked in a jiff” has a nice ring to it.
7: Brown is never going to pick anyone who will become a rival to him so he might just over promote the already over promoted and pick Balls or Ruth Kelly.
9 yes blinky balls vs David Davis. The shortest Home Sec in history
8
Miss the cleavage though!
Reminds me of an ad that ran in Germany where a Jiffy is a condom,
during the AIDS scare. It showed a couple getting ever closer on the sofa, then the man gets up, the girl asks ‘Where are you going’ he replies, ‘I’ll be back in a Jiffy’
9. Oh yes please, either one would be great fun.
But are there no talented, thrusting youngsters who would like to fit into Brown’s inner circle?
11. Is that why Jif became Cif - I always thought the name was changed to avoid antisemitism?
she won’t go but it doesn’t look good when the country’s top cop and the Home Sec are fighting for their careers
Jacqui Smith is only guilty of seeking the facts before presenting them to the public.
She has behaved responsibly and, therefore, will keep her job.
15 - Ah Gabble, always good for a laugh.
Seeking to ensure they have the “right line for the media” is seeking the facts now?
16. You still think there is a difference between ‘facts’ and Labour spin? How very reactionary of you!
the bird flu has been identified as the H5N1 strain. Has Gordon gone scurrying for the COBRA key?
16. I’m certain when the investigation concludes in December we will have the full facts.
This is the timetable of an honest and responsible government rather than the publish-and-be-damned agenda of the 24-hour media.
I have heard that behind the scenes Ms Smith is highly regarded and is a lot tougher than her media demeanour shows.
She might be around longer than quite a few cabinet colleagues…
Marathon was changed to Snickers because under EU laws it has to be made in Marathon. Although we still have Marathons in different countries.
Seems to me French Fries should follow,
21 referenced 13…
13 Goupillon that has always interested me.
I was living in Turkey using Jif (pronounced with a ‘j’ like ‘g’ in ‘Gendarme’) and it changed to Cif which in Turkish is pronounced as Jif is in English. I thought it was simply an in-country thing to make the spelling consonant with Turkish, but apparently not.
I have heard people all over Europe call Cif ‘Sif’ which seems an odd name for cleaning fluid. Odder in some languages than others.
Brand marketing is a funny business.
20. I have heard the opposite, that she hasn’t mastered her brief and that Jack Straw overshadows her.
Commons starting to fill up.
15: She takes 4 months to seek the facts? Do YOU even believe what you type?
I’ve yet to see the attraction of Alan Johnson, Mike, apart from the fact that he doesn’t seem to say or do anything (what’s that phrase, ‘glorious inaction’?). When he does, such as talking about pensions when he was DWP secretary, he comes across as a no-nothing, stonewalling idiot.
HOC: Jacqui Smith very strong - David Davis ineffetive.
24-I agree that she has not mastered the facts but people close to her who work under her say that she has more metal than we think
27. Indeed, if dimwit Johnson is the ’solution’, Labour really are in trouble.
28. lol, if you judge performence by voice raising. If not, you must have been watching something else.
Both politicians doing a good job in the HoC IMO. No sign that JS is going to, or indeed should, resign over this. DD did his job. But no drama, no fireworks. Just democracy in action. Good stuff.
Ps But Clegg isn’t there! Ooops. Where is he? Schoolboy error.
28. Have you transposed the descriptions of Smith and Davis by any chance?
Great question by the LD. Clegg looked weak for not being there. Really awful. Pity the LD has no public speaking skill; that question well-delivered would have destroyed her.
David Davis measured and deadly effective as usual.
“There has been no blunder… this was an increase in effectiveness…” yeah, Jacqui - is it the Home Office’s best year ever?
19. To anyone with even a modicum of rational intelligence this is the timetable of a corrupt and mendacious government desperate to spin its way out of a rapid and entirely self inflicted descent into total chaos and incompetence. The facts were clear to Jacqui in August. Everything since then has been a cover-up. To say otherwise is ..well…silly.
The decent and responsible thing to do would be to resign. However, Decency and Responsibility are not two words that apply to the Brown regime. Desperate and evasive are of course two words that do apply.
32/34 I think you will find that Nick Clegg is in Bristol for the leadership hustings today .
36. Party before country tut tut tut
Davis was weak IMO. JC handling this very well. ‘is this it?’ a Lab backbencher shouted when DD sat down. No scalps here.
36 but this is a major incident and requires him to be in the Commons handling his brief.
38. DD said all that needed saying. There has been no change with this Government, just more spin.
38. You’d say that even if her tonsure was lying blood-soaked on the despatch box.
36 Bad call IMO. Should have done both or got the LDs to rearrange the timing of the meeting. It’s not that it’s an external thing. Bit of an own goal.
40,38 DD did a decent parliamentary job. It’s the ramping here and in the press that talked about tears and resignations that was way off the mark.
39 Well at least he is in this country and not Rwanda .
JS just looked ludicrous spouting such obvious untruths. It reminded me of Brown’s press conference after the non-election. You just cant believe their bare faced effrontery. How can they keep a straight face when uttering such blatant porkies. Years of practice I suppose.
21 - No, Marathon was a UK/Eire only name, Mars internationally used Snickers everywhere else which was its original name anyway. Mars changed it to Snickers to harmonise it, the EU was not involved.
43. Can’t see the hustings there attracting much of a crowd.
A rare moment lucidity, Theo Spark demonstrates his insightful political acumen!
http://theospark.blogspot.com/
A typically dismal, slippery, and obfuscating performance by Smith who was only saved by Davis being unable to ask follow-up questions which would have nailed her.
That’s not her off the hook yet though. The Mail, Sun, etc will be digging out the “illegal’s in sensitive jobs” stories right now.
Isn’t there another point here; the tories have a mole in the HO as well as at HMT?
I think the most important aspect of the exchanges was jacqui smith stating that she had at no point informed gordon about this. If it turns out that she did, then she’s history. cameron at pmqs tomorrow has to make gordon also say that jacqui smith never told him. once the trap has been set, the media will move in, until they find that she did, casting both her and gordon as liars. of course she may be telling the truth, but the government has been tainted, and the media have nothing to loose in digging for info, and after all, someone inside is leaking emails…
49. the rats are leaving the sinking ship…
Another obvious candidate is John Denham, former Police Minister and former Chairman of the Home Affairs Select Committee.
God help the country, government and Labour Party if Ed Miliband or Ruth Kelly get it. The more numpties like that get top jobs, and the likes of Benn and Denham get overlooked, the more I despair of my party’s prospects (and of Brown’s judgement).
It’s far too reminiscent of the Major government, where the likes of Hogg, Bottomley, Lang, and Freeman were overpromoted.
50. Though I agree, isn’t the alternative that she is telling the truth even more interesting. I know he is very busy developing his “vision” but I am astonished that Jacqui did not think it appropriate to inform the PM of such a potentially significant breach of security and a matter potentially so damaging to his premiership, the Labour party and the public interest.
The chance of her staying in office to the election may be currently looking very slim, but as we all know, ‘a week is a long time…’ etc. etc. Many Secretaries of State have survived work and then had said scandal/incompetance forgotten about.
In theory though, where she to accept the traditional revolver so beloved of previous New Labour Home Secs, surely Jack Straw or Alan Johnson would be the most sensible replacements. However, who has the political stature to replace Jack at the Justice Department? It would seem that no-one would. Thus Johnson would seem the most likely. Unless Brown saw him as a threat. Then we’ll be seeing the (further) rise of a mediocrity.
And they’re currently ten a penny on the Labour front bench.
The Davis/Smith damp squib that just occurred reminds me a little of the time that Shadow Home Sec Straw failed to destroy a very vulnerable Home Sec Howard once upon a time (something to do with Derek Lewis/Widdecombe, methinks). IIRC Blair kept demanding that Straw ask more and more questions, but Straw was failing to deliver and Howard got off the hook. The same seems to have happened today.
After this how can she stil stay in the job.
52 - Interesting point re: Denham. On the day that Brown’s new cabinet was announced, the BBC initially published on their website that he’d got the Home Secretary position. Originally it had been “Smith or Denham”. They soon corrected the error, but he would have been a fairly inspiring choice, I think.
Still could be, I guess. But already it seems that this Government is tarnished beyond repair. Would he wish to be further linked to it?
The reason it failed to fizzle is because DD is not allowed follow up questions. If this had been a PMQ format then I think it would have been a more interesting affair.
50 “…jacqui smith stating that she had at no point informed gordon about this. If it turns out that she did, then she’s history.”
So in the months since these events became known to her, not a word to Gordon that he had a lucky escape - that his Limo was at risk of being nobbled by a clever Al Queda operative? No mention of the problem at all? What about when it had been solved?
We are really to believe that the holder of post responsible for securing protection of the nation doesn’t mention a glaring loophole to her boss? So what do they talk about?? Is Gordon really that unapproachable???
‘isn’t the alternative that she is telling the truth even more interesting’
It would certain be very unusual.
50.Agreed. Jacqui Smith did not perform well in reply to David Davis just now, she did not inspire confidence on this issue.
60. Wrong - Jacqui Smith was very strong against Davis and all-comers.
Cue the sound of Tory teeth gnashing.
Ex-MPC member Willem Buiter has today attacked the government for propping up Norther Rock, and also attacked Brown for setting up the current dysfunctional system of financial regulation.
Labour’s attempt to spin the blame onto the BoE has backfired badly, it seems. The old tricks just don’t work any more.
In trying to dodge the question of when she told him, Smith may have set a trap for Brown. It’s time for the press and the Tories to do more digging.
58: A bearers of bad news often made welcome?
The Summer might have taken a totally different trajectory if these figures had been released in July.
63. She didn’t dodge the question - she said that she hadn’t told him.
If she is telling the truth, a big IF (when she said she hadnt told brown, her tone and persona reminded me of bill clinton) then the tories can spin it as ‘the HS has so little confidence in the PM that she’s adopted a policy of do it herself, or for shorthand, dithers’
61. If by very strong you mean totally ridiculous and utterly devoid of stature, dignity or credibility, then for once you’re spot on.
gabble, she only lived to fight another day by Davis’s inability to ask her follow-up questions. If he had been able to do this then he would have destroyed what little credibility she has left I’m sure.
I suspect the worst is still to come for her, however, as the media and opposition dig out more ammunition to throw at her over this issue in the days to come.
61. I have been analysing Gabble’s comments, and suspect that he is in fact Dr Howard Stoate MP. I claim my £5
O/T First exit poll in Denmark
For mainland seats (175 seats)
Centre-right coalition 89 seats (-5)
Centre-left 79 (-2)
New alliance (non-coalition centre-right)7 (+7)
So the creation of New alliance would have cost 5 seats to Rasmussen’s majority and 2 seats to the left.
If this result is confirmed, the coalition would only need to get the support of at least 1 of the 4 MPs for Faeroe and Greenland to get the majority (90 seats). Anyway the New Alliance has already pledged its support to the current PM
67, 68. She survived because she was right.
Davis knew this which was why his heart wasn’t really in it. No genuine ammunition.
61.”Cue the sound of Tory teeth gnashing.” Err no, I was actually cringing when I listened to Jacqui Smiths reply.
70. What’s the source for that pls, Chris?
71 - Since when has the knowledge that the Government is right on an issue prevented an opposition from rabidly pursuing it..?
52, 56. John Denham is one of two very obvious potential successors if Smith has to go. I can’t understand why he doesn’t appear higher in the Betfair listings.
The other plausible candidate is Hilary Benn, who like Denham has previously been a Home Office minister. But Brown was said not to have been hugely impressed by his lacklustre performance in the deputy leadership election.
I’d be amazed if it was Ed Miliband - imagine having one Miliband as Foreign Secretary and the other as Home Secretary would be a trifle incestuous, I think.
Calm down everybody
Given the pressure on GB of late, the last thing he will do is show weakness by allowing a senior minister to go. It will look too much like John Major stuff.This is a storm in a teacup.
You lot have had it in for Smith since the beginning, a whiff of sexism, rather like the attacks on Ruth Kelly. All a bit too much Cholmondly Warner(Harry Enfield) if you ask me.
My candidate for first to go will be one of the minor positions - Peter Hain or John Hutton - not one of the big jobs.
71. She was right about what? You are saying its right for a cabinet secretary to bury bad news?
No chance of a resignation - Nu Lab just don’t do resignations unless its illegal or Mandlesson.
73- AFP reporting a Zapera poll
77. It’s right to establish the facts before presenting them to the public.
79. thks
Let’s see how tomorrow’s tabloids deal with Smith’s shoddy and obfuscating performance. I doubt many will be impressed.
It’s more than obvious by now she’s totally out of her depth. Will she survive until Xmas is the question.
76. “whiff of sexism, rather like the attacks on Ruth Kelly”
As far as I recall, people have only argued that Smith was incompetent. No-one has said she was incompetent because she was a woman. And as most of those making the attacks are huge fans of Margaret Thatcher, your sexism claim seems a little silly.
78. Isn’t it an offence to employ illegal immigrants - especially knowingly?
76 - Fair point, but surely laying David Davis in the “next Home Sec” market is well worth doing. - Chance of Brown suffling at some point in the next 2 / 3 years is high, allied to this or A.N.Other scandal, and the fact that if she goes all the way through to an election, we might be looking at a hung parliament (cue Home Sec as an option for junior coalition partners?), but even if Cameron gets an overall majority, he might well not put Davis at Home Sec - shadowing is emphatically not the same as doing the job, and his talents could well be used elsewhere.
What time is shift handover at ‘the bunker’ 17:00hrs?
Does Gabble actually leave for the night or just change his monocle to Mr Wheatley?
75 - I don’t think Denham tends to appear highly largely because he’s neither a minor Blairite nor a Brownite, both of whom seem to have entirely filled the front bench. Being as he’s not a friend of Gordon, or one of the selected Tony Cronies who were allowed to survive the cull, he seems destined for not too much at all. Except having to answer to Blinky.
76 - I think my prejudice against Smith stemmed from the fact that I’d barely even heard of her! I certainly didn’t have any real opinion of her, and was surprised that the position hadn’t gone to Miliband or Straw - one of whom people seemed to have high hopes for, and the other who seemed to be the required ’safe pair of hands’ for a very dodgy-looking department. Straw has been the only New Labour Home Office holder not to have resigned or been sacked, remember.
79 Thanks. Any idea how the votes divide between the parties?
Re: 70 - In fact, the polling stations are open until 7pm GMT so this “exit poll” isn’t a complete sample. The last opinion poll taken yesterday evening suggests that Venstre (Liberal-Conservative) could lose up to eight seats with the big winners being the Socialistiske Folkepartei which could double its representation.
The “Borgerlig” or centre-right bloc has 86 seats, the centre-left bloc headed by the Social Democrats has 80 with Ny Alliance set to win five.
We’ll see if the actual result is closer to that or the “exit poll”.
78 - Nu Lab just don’t do resignations - What about Ruth Kelly?
89- that’s right.
However, even the poll results you quote would see rasmussen returned as PM: New alliance 5 seats would be enough to prop him up /
Inevitable stick for the lady, but I sense it is the system which is failing rather than the figurehead. Did anyone really think Reid had completed his mission and left the HO “fit for purpose”?
She has some tricky times ahead with the Criminal Justice Bill, the Counter Terrorism Bill, and the Citizenship and Immigration Bill.
Shame really as she seems quite capable.
So how much will the Home Office be fined for employing ‘illegal’ workers, and when will this take place. Gruaniad headline of 2005 mentioned fines of £2,000 per worker. Would JS like to comment on this?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,5221818-115620,00.htm
Smith should go, if she voted for this piece of legislation, and forgets to implement it, its almost as good as the muppet who sits on the committee on banning the use of drivers using mobile phones and then gets caught driving and using a mobile the same time.
DD’s approach is as it was for Charles Clarke. Ask questions after the statement which sets a parliamentary base line of ‘facts’ and then pick it apart in public and at the next Home Office/PM questions.
The first is done with the traps sprung on various levels but not least the question of who knew what and when.
And if she did not tell the PM why on earth not tell him about such a serious security breach - and it is very serious, please have no doubt about that? A lose lose situation there.
The second part of the Tory game plan is well underway and the news outlets are not sympathetic to Smith so far and the Tory message is already well established.
I am quite impressed that our news management has got so much better. Well done Andy.
Smith may survive this but she will be on political life support and the smallest slip after this will finish her off as a Home Secretary.
Ps the chamber was half empty and no-one seemed to expect fireworks at this statement. The MPs know how this works, too.
Not said with malice, just looking at the odds.
This episode with the Home Secy is the 2nd wound inflicted after the debate on detention plans. How deep the wound is depends on the papers and whether anything new emerges. Any illegal workers worked in the security of the Queen?
If a third wound comes this side of Xmas then she is gone. If however the third wound is in the New Year, it may take a 4th to bring her down. For now she hangs on, wounded.
Cameron has some ammo for tomorrow’s PMQs. All about “lines”. Possible questions… Q: What happened to the promise of an end to spin? Q: No one told you your car was guarded by an illegal alien?
Re: 70 & 89
The Exit Poll in Denmark suggests:
Centre Right: 84 (V+C+O)
Centre Left: 79 (A+B+F)
Ny Alliance:7
Unity list(Left wing):6
http://www.politiken.dk/
The headline above the Exit Poll translates roughly as “VKO loses plurality and becomes dependent on Ny Alliance” (VKO being Venstre + Konservative + Danske Folkparti)
Graeme Where does that leave the EU referendum question?
96- The fact that the unity list makes or not the threshold to be in parliament is the main factor to explain the difference with the figures I gave earlier.
The polls are still open till 07:00 pm CET (6:00pm GMT)
69: How do you work that one out Barry?
69. More likely a patient than a doctor, surely?
37 Party before country tut tut tut
Woody - don’t you mean self before country?
Witan @ 97 - your guess is as good as mine! The DF are clearly the most EU-sceptic party on the right, but how much sway they have to ensure a referendum with the Governing coalition remains to be seen.
Chris @ 98 - yes, the Exit Poll is only 1000 voters, taken before 16:45pm Danish Time. I believe there is another Exit Poll due from the same pollster around 20:00 CET with an updated sample of 3000 voters.
brilliant plan by Cameron - referendums on excessive council tax rises…
http://news.aol.co.uk/cameron-plans-council-tax-rise-vote/article/20071112220209990005
Danish Poll has now been updated. latest figures:
Venstre 43, Konservative 20, Dansk Folkparti 23 (Total 86)
Soc Dem 47, Soc. Folkparti 19, Radikal Venstre 12 (Total 78)
Ny Alliance 5
Untiy List 6
Inetrestingly, Ny Alliance are on 3% and Unity list on 3,1% which puts them within around 1% (less than the margin of error) of the 2% threshold for seats in the Folketing.
http://politiken.dk/politik/article427601.ece
It will be interesting to see how the Beeb play this on their TV news bulletins this evening.
I heard Pienaar on Radio 5 spouting forth this afternoon, making it clear, even before Jacqui Smith’s statement, that no way could this be considered a resignation matter - pathetic. No wonder he got moved from TV to Radio.
103 - a totally bonkers plan by Cameron if you ask me!
Where did this one come from?
Nevertheless, it gets news headlines, shows the Tories are looking to reform the things that matter to voters, and also dominating the daily news agenda, whilst Labour flails around like drowning rats.
Re yesterday’s most entertaining 3 word quiz, shouldn’t we have a picture of Jacqui Smith on this thread?
My entry would be: “F*cked. Nice cleavage…”
106 I’m not sure, either, that this is such a good idea - apparently the voting papers for such a referendum will be sent out with the Council Tax demand, with a reduced cost alternative budget. Clearly the alternative would be made so unpallatable as to ensure that it is certain to be voted down.
107. Shouldn’t that be “Nice cleavage. F*cked”?
109 - no that’s my pulling routine, not my critique on Home Secretaries.
104 Is it possible to form a government then? Adding New Alliance to the Left wing parties leaves them one short.
New Alliance plus the Right Wing parties gives a one seat majority, but New Alliance was formed to prevent the government from being dependent on DF (the latter looks as though it’s done very well in this election).
103. “referendums on excessive council tax rises”
I have no doubt that Gordon brown should be asked by the Chameleon to agree pilot this excellent approach in Sefton where the Conservative group in the last few months alone have proposed publicly a number of measures which would force up the Council Tax monstrously:
(1) sacking Chief Executive and throwing away senior staff savings package (£650,000 - joint proposal with Labour)
(2) abaondoning Alternate Weekly collection of non-food waste (£7.32 million)
(3) doing away with pay and display income from Southport (£2.1 million)
(4) forcing every houselold to be supplied with a food waste bin whether they like it or not (£45,000)
….as well as various little odds and sods such as providing free bus services to schools for kids who mostly prefer to go on the train.
The conbined effect of the above would be considerably more than £100 on a band D Council Tax on top of the present ‘hole’ in the Sefton budget of roughly £1.6 million if a 3 per cent rise is to be achieved next year.
Sefton Tories - the new Doncaster? or is it Barnsley?
Meanwhile, Conservative ppc for Sefton Central, Debi Jones is following her colleague Martin Barber down the Standards Board trail. Martin is due to receive sentence on 22nd November for his atrocious abuse of a constituent. Debi has just been reported to the Board on a matter relating to which the Deputy Chief Executive has just been suspended. She claims to be ‘a political pawn’. Others could and should perhaps have told her that earlier?
http://www.champnews.com/html/newsstory.asp?id=6233
Re: 104 - Figures more or less confirmed by Danmarksradio on their site:
http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Temaer/Politik+temaer/2007/Valg/2007/11/13/181424.htm?nyheder
VKO at 87, the Centre-Left bloc (including the Unity Party) at 84 with Ny Alliance at 5. So Ny Alliance get to play kingmaker at Venstre’s expense.
My money’s on Denham, Smith has been flailing around since she got the job and today’s revelations and her bare faced effrontery in the commons will have made things worse. It’s come to a pretty pass when the gopvernment cheerleaders can only praise successful obfuscation and have to ignore completely the main accusations.
Johnson possibly but I don’t think he’s prepared to take on the poisoned chalice.
111. If confirmed this is a bad result for Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He held an early election for no very good reason and will have seen his position weakened.
Re Silver voting support for the Tories - previous thread.
I’m sure another and continuing factor giving rise to this is the rampant inflation in food prices, which particularly affects the elderly on fixed or near fixed incomes.
It’s surprising that this is not featuring more prominently on TV and Radio news, although I was pleased to see The Daily Telegraph made it their front page lead this morning after my posts yesterday!
113- Ny alliance’s leader has repeatedly announced that he would support the centre-right. It has probably cost him some votes.
Sean Fear @ 111 -
There is some talk that there may ahve to be another election soon if no clear picture emerges. Clearly the Ny Alliance ‘hold the balance’ between right and left but as Chris (from Paris) has pointed out, Ny Alliance is pledged to support Venstre, but as an alternative to the DF.
78 - Nu Lab just don’t do resignations - What about Ruth Kelly?
Correction - sorry I meant Estelle Morris
Re: 118 - I think that’s going to be the issue, Graeme. What will be the “price” for Khader’s support ? Will Ny Alliance, for example, insist that no DF members are allowed in the Cabinet and will there be a subtle (or not subtle) rowing back on some of the anti-immigration rhetoric ?
Khader is in a strong position - what would Pia Kjersgaard do - support the centrte-left, hardly likely ? Perhaps Rasmussen will form a Government without DF backing and see if or whether DF will opt to vote him down and let the centre-left in ?
I was tied up in the Justice Select Committee but gather from the above that Davis didn’t do very well - blaming the inability to ask follow-up questions is a bit feeble, hasn’t stopped effective criticism in the past.
In the SC we were hearing Profs Curtice, Hazell and Jeffery on devolution, EVFEL, English Grand Committees, etc. All three witnesses agreed that there was at present no great demand for EVFEL or an English Parliament (Curtice is a polling specialist, Hazell and Jeffery more experts on constitutional affairs), and also that it would be unlikely to be a stable solution, more likely leading to a de facto English Parliament with an English executive. Since this means more another layer of government they were sceptical whether it would be popular.
Surprisingly, there were no Tory MPs present - perhaps they’d all been told to go to the Chamber for the JS/DD duel.
The Danish exit poll sounds quite good for the centre-left, but no cigar since the New Alliance has plumped for the centre-right. The big drop in predicted share for Rasmussen’s Liberals (Venstre), if confirmed, is unexpected, and it leaves the government on a very weak basis, dependent on support from both the People’s Party, which is anti-EU and anti-immigrant, and the New Alliance, which is pro-both. however, it’s only an exit poll…
120 - there are no DF (People’s party) members in the cabinet now, surely? - isn’t the arrangement that they support the Government from outside the Cabinet?
There was some pre-eleciton talk of a grand coalition with Venstre, social Democrats, New Alliance and Radical Liberals. That would exclude the DF, but also the socialist SF, which could be difficult if they’ve just nearly doubled their vote.
On an EU referendum in Denmark - looks unlikely. Only the fringe parties and New Alliance are sympathetic. The Liberals and Conservatives said, “well, let’s see after the election”, which is generally assumed to be code for “no”.
Stodge @ 118
Not sure how it will play. The whole point of Ny Alliance was to supplant the DF as a support to Venstre/Consevatives. I don’t see how the numbers stack up if DF aren’t included (although they don’t have ministers in the Govt.) DF also have 4 times the number of votes to Ny Alliance.
No way on earth would Pia Kjaersgaard support the left (she used to belong to the right-wing ‘Fremskritspartiet’ before she formed DF)
These are the consquences of coalition politics and PR.
Latest Danish exit poll gives the centre right (Venstre + Conservatives + Dansk Folkparti) a projected 88 seats, which is a majority of 1 over all other parties, including Ny Alliance.
A big exit poll of 3000 people is due in around 15 mins (20:00 CET)
http://politiken.dk/politik/article427601.ece
Nick P @ 122
“there are no DF (People’s party) members in the cabinet now, surely? - isn’t the arrangement that they support the Government from outside the Cabinet?” - yes, that’s spot on.
On the EU referendum issue, the Danish people are up there with the British and the Czechs in the EU-scepticism, but most of the established parties are very pro-EU.
Apologies for the many posting on the Danish election, for those of you hoping to discuss the Jacqui Smith fiasco on this thread!
103. What’s wrong with just voting them out?
Seems like giving councillors a free ride - they stay in power and then wash their hands if the referendum goes against them.
“Well, we would have liked to do x, y, and z - but you voted for the cuts instead”
121
perhaps you can explain why Smith failed to answer, or even attempt to answer, any of Davis’s questions?
Did anyone listen to 5 live at about 4pm. There was some guy (no doubt New….Lab trying to defend the indefensible, and his stutters and stammers were even worse than Gordo’s. Talk about being caught with your( politically speaking ) trousers down. Its another case of trying to defend the indefensible. Voters are going to remember spin and deceit.. I expect more bad news for Gordo come the next poll(s)
By the way, 5 live are peddling referendums’,(as in papadums LOL) anyone with a brain knows its referenda….
Graeme,
Thanks for the posts on Denmark.
What time did the polls close? I thought it was 7pm UK so 8pm Denmark - surprised to see exit polls out prior to 7pm UK.
Did voting actually finish earlier, or do they publish exit polls before the close of voting?
Many thanks.
121. How would a “de facto” English parliament with an English executive be another layer of government when it would be precisely the same MPs involved? If devolution had been done this way, with existing Scottish/Welsh MPs becoming the Scottish/Welsh parliaments, we would have saved a lot of time and expense.
Yesterday, IIRC, Mike agreed with Nick Palmer that Labour’s % of the vote in ICM’s polls would not fall below 34% in the short term. I’m looking for someone who will give me odds of 6-1 against my tenner that Labour’s share of the vote in any of ICM’s poll findings falls, by any amount, below 30% on or before 31 May 2008.
Anyone prepared to take this bet, which we’ll ask Mike to record?
If anyone wants to follow the Danish election coverage, I’d recommend this:
http://www.dr.dk/
You don’t really need to know any Danish - just follow the numbers and you’ll seen work out who is who.
On an unrelated topic, does anyone think there will be widespread fuel protests before Christmas ?
Thank you all for the posts on the Danish election, very interesting indeed.
133- “On an unrelated topic, does anyone think there will be widespread fuel protests before Christmas ?”
No idea, but I really hope they don’t start blocking fuel depots. Last time that happened I had to cancel a driving holiday in Suffolk and book a trip on the Eurostar instead. How I suffered!
128 voxpop “perhaps you can explain why Smith failed to answer, or even attempt to answer, any of Davis’s questions?”
Its all in the newGordie straight Govt, end to spin, GOATI, Vision ……….zzzzz
133 does anyone think there will be widespread fuel protests before Christmas?
No - people have got more important things to worry about, like soaring food prices.
137. ‘133 does anyone think there will be widespread fuel protests before Christmas?
No - people have got more important things to worry about, like soaring food prices.’
Caused by the rise in the price of fuel ironically enough!!
138 To some extent yes, but nowhere near the 25% increases seen in a number of staples seen over just the last few weeks/months.
128: voxpop, don’t want to be rude or anything, but read my post at 121 that you’re replying to - I wasn’t there, so can’t comment sensibly, can I?
125: I’m told, but have not seen it myself, that a recent survey showed a strong swing to supporting the EU treaty in Denmark if they had a referendum, though the parties are still inclined not to risk it?
Anyway, a dramatic change from the exit poll in the first results: they’re now predicting a clear win for the centre-right without the help of the New Alliance, with the far-left Unity List on 1.9%, 0.1% short of what they need. If the latter changes then it gets closer, but it’s still looking good for the government there.
Double Carpet @ 130
There was an early exit poll released at 5pm Danish time for Politiken newspaper, although the polls only closed at 7pm. This exit poll was updated up to 8pm Danish time. DR (Danish TV) also released an exit poll shortly after 8pm.
Results are starting to come in and latest prognosis is:
Centre Right: 94 (Venstre 50, Konservative 19, Dansk Folkparti 25)
Centre Left: 76 (Soc Dem 45, Soc Folkparti 22, Radikal Venstre 9)
Ny Alliance: 4
This suggests a similar majority for the centre right, with Venstre losses being offset by gains for Konservatives and DF. Also, looks like Unity List could be out of the Folketing, as they are currently on 1,9%.
140 Nick - “I don’t want to be rude or anything”, but there’s rather a difference between your posts 121&140!
No more Denmark posts from me tonight. Have to go and eat now, but am happy that the Centre Right looks to be safely back.
One thing for sure can be said about the next Home Secretary, they are unlikely to look like they have somebodies arse stuffed down their shirt!!!
:lol: 
I think Cameron will give Brown a real pasting tommorow, Brown will have his goose cooked!
133&135.”On an unrelated topic, does anyone think there will be widespread fuel protests before Christmas ?”
In Scotland “Hauliers avoid fuel cost protests”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7092272.stm
146 Chris - from the link you provided:
I know it’s not the government’s fault, but they could help, and they should help
Phil Flanders, RHAS director
LOL - didn’t anyone tell him that approx 76% of the cost of Petrol/Diesel is tax and that the UK has the highest fuel costs in Europe. What was that again Mr Flanders “I know it’s not the Government’s fault….”
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL, etc.
Short of a total screw up Brown will hang to her for dear life.
Thus its more likely she’ll only go with a reshuffle.
147 One might have thought that as a Director of RHAS, Mr Flanders would be aware of these fairly basic facts of life.
Keep standing up for your members, Mr Flanders!
Re. 54, it was 1995. Blair totally undermined Straw by prodding him in the manner you suggest and (worse still) intervening against Howard (totally undermining Straw, and making a fool of himself, as Howard swotted him aside fairly easily). And Straw’s case fell apart when he wasn’t able to answer a Tory backbencher who asked him if he (Straw) would have sacked Derek Lewis as Head of the Prison Service. It was one of the few optimistic moments the Tories had in that parliament (indeed, so much so that some Tories thought they might just win the 97 GE).
Re. 56, yes, when holding such a senior position (notwithstanding Macleod’s description of the Home Office as ‘the graveyard of political ambition’) might well put him in a good position to be Leader of the Opposition should Brown lose the next GE.
Re: 141 - Latest prognosis from Danmarksradio (80% counted) now has both Ny Alliance and Enhedslisten (Unity List) scraping in to the Folketing.
On the centre-left, it’s been a fantastic result for SF (Socialistiske Folkeparti) which has more than doubled its MPs at the expense of Radikale Venstre which has lost half of its share. The bloc (with Enhedslisten) has 81.
On the centre-right, Venstre has lost ground to Ny Alliance but the Conservatives and Dansk Folkeparti have more or less held steady. The bloc has 89 without Ny Alliance and 94 with.
However you look at it, it’s a win for Anders Fogh Rasmussen whose majority has more or less been maintained. The centre-left has got stronger on the far left and weaker in the centre while the centre-right has kept its balance more or less intact.
The question now is whether the centre-right Coalition can keep going with two apparently radically divergent partners in DF and Ny Alliance.
140 Nick Palmer, so you don’t know why Ms Smith failed to answer, or even attempt to answer, any of Davis’s five, or was it six, questions? Could you possibly ask her and get back to us please, as I really would like to get to the bottom of this?
BTW I don’t think you’re being rude, a little rattled perhaps, which is understandable in the circumstances, but not rude.
Hope that helps.
Danish election back in the balance - the Unity List just over the threshold, governing parties leading 89-81 with 5 to the New Alliance and 4 from Greenland and the Faroes (which are likely to split 3-1 for the opposition). So the government just OK without the New Alliance at the moment, with 80% counted, but if they drop another seat they’re not. Big winner of the night are the (fairly) left-wing socialists, who have doubled their score.
152: voxpop: (patiently) as I wasn’t there and haven’t spoken to anyone who was, I’m neither rattled, elated, or anything else - I’ve no opinion at all. Makes a change, eh?
152 the danish elections are much more important than any scandals at the home office……….
153. The winners are those with power….as always Nick.
re 129. No it’s referendums by Act of Parliament
It is now generally agreed that the correct plural of referendum is referendums. Parliament used this form of the plural in passing the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. The main academic reference for this can be found in D. Butler and A. Ranney, Referendums Around the World (1994):
We speak of referendums not referenda on the advice of the editors of the Oxford English Dictionary: ‘Referendums is logically preferable as a plural form meaning ballots on one issue (as a Latin gerund, referendum has no plural). The Latin plural gerundive, meaning “things to be referred” necessarily connotes a plurality of issues’.
155 sorry, yes…the Danish elections..fascinating, and the winter fuel allowance. Just don’t mention the growing scandal at the Home Office! I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.
Sssshhh we don’t know who’s listening!
Now, back to those Danish elections…..
153 Unlike the UK General Election…. though far off seem destined for a change of Govt.
152
LOL Nice piece of sarcasm…
has gordon chaired a COBRA meeting about the danish elections? was it just after the one held about illegal immigrants working at UK airports or the COBRA meeting about government ministers endangering the lives of British people?
isnt the bloke ashcroft a threat to national security?zzzzzzzzzzz
154 I’m glad to hear you’re not rattled Nick. Could you tell me what you’re on as I’d like to try some
The J Smith “The Govt’s priority has been to avoid releasing misleading information”.
Back in August her PS said “any media disclosure would draw heavy media fire” and the Home Secy does not think the lines are right.
Well that proves that there was 1) Panic and 2) Cover up. We wait and see if it was the 3) Blunder, that DD accused them of.
I am doing a little decorating this evening so I am able to make a true judgement of the relative merits of paint drying and Danish politics.
No contest.
157 very erudite Chris A and something I didnt know. I had, like maggie thatcher fan been using referenda as the plural in a very superior way. I now stand corrected and have ordered the humble pie.
164
Fair enough , but when I was taught Latin at school.. a long time ago multiples of um were always a, ie the issue is a referendum, but its possible IMHO to have referenda on several issues. I note Max U’s “superior way” and am suitably humbled (as per usual). but noone will persuade me that referenda is not the right expression… and personally will continue to use it in that “superior way”
165 Didn’t somebody earlier say that anybody with half a brain knew it was referenda? I trust they will return when they find the other half of their brain?
164 Surely Max the point is that we speak English, or try to. Latin plurals are no more appropriate to our speech than togas are to our climate and lifestyle.
And of course that’s assuming we know what the correct Latin plurals are. Nothing is more amusing than the pretentious clot that insists on the plural of curriculum being curriculi.
166 Still looking for it… will return when I’ve found it.
However, In my defence….
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/referendum
165 - I think there is a trend away from foreign plurals for foreign words. Would you prefer to say oligarchi, banditti, foci (is the ‘c’ soft?), saunat, ombudsma(with two dots)n?
I think it would only be logical to use the Latin plural inflection if we also use the correct Latin case endings. Referenda would not be correct for genitive, dative or ablative. And since English does not have case endings for nouns (save “’s”), it would be ludicrous.
Far better to angilicise the plurals. (Or should that be Anglicize?)
150 - Problem is that if Denham went to the Home Office so soon before an election, then surely there’d be a crisis/mishap at some point that would soon see him off. What’s the statistic on people jumping from Home Office straight to Leader, though? It’s a pretty rare occurrence, isn’t it?
But still…Denham as Labour Leader. That