Is this Brown’s plan to get the initiative back?
November 14th, 2007
Will playing the terror card deflect attention from PMQs?
For the first time in three weeks there’ll be PMQs in the commons and after the recent batterings Brown is going to extraordinary length to dominate the news agenda today.
According to the Mole column in the First Post the PM “has taken charge of a major announcement…on terrorism and border controls in order to steady the ship when everyone else is looking decidedly sea-sick.Lord West, the former First Sea Lord, was due to announce the results of his review of the terrorist threat in ‘enclosed places’ such as the London underground, railway stations and airports. But Brown told the Cabinet ..that he will take it over. He will combine the terror statement with the results of a long-awaited review by Cabinet Secretary Gus O’Donnell of the merger of the Border and Immigration Agency, Customs and UK Visas as an integrated force.”
All this is being designed, apparently to give the PM the opportunity to show “that he is in charge”. This morning’s piece in the Sun, part of which is reproduced above, is all part of the same strategy.
During Gord’s honeymoon period in July a device that was deployed to “swamp” PMQs was to ensure that there was a key policy announcement - so that became the headline point blanking out the opposition. This worked very effectively then but will it work now?
Gord’s gamble today is that by personally taking over a statement that somebody else was going to make that he could be accused of playing politics with terror. In July the media was giving him the benefit of the doubt. That’s no longer happening.
Let’s see how today plays.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
LAB GAIN EVERYWHERE
CON DOWN TO 45 SEATS
STEWART JACKSON LOSES HIS DEPOSIT
btw, stewart jackson’s popularity in peterborough is at an alltime low
http://www.leytonorient2.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=159371
If Brown is trying to stoke people’s fear of terrorism for the purpose of staying in office then it really is an abandonment of everything Labour ever believed in.
I take it they will use the SIA to vett the construction workers? I feel safer already.
Straight from the Blairite playbook. Cover up the incompetence and govt-by-gimmickry with the hyping of big issues.
Fascism is the use of open naked and terrorist violence by the capitalist class to maintain the entrenched power of the bourgeoisie, when other methods have failed.
The use of frenzy, hysteria, fear, the erosion of civil liberties, the arbitrary detention of people without charge, and the conjuring up of bogus scare-stories and imagined enemies are the tactics of a ruling class when open fascist methods are not yet necessary to uphold the power of the capitalist bourgeois classes.
Good people of Britain, let me introduce you to my fourth friend. Sat on the pale horse, say hello to Death…..
Thus far Brown has been very limited in the amount of initiative he has shown in developing an agenda. Very disappointing.
All that comes into my mind is anti-terror, some constitutional twiddling and a desire to pave half of southern England for housing.
There is a world out there unaffected by any of these who thus far the Brown government has not spoken too.Your last para is on the money Mike. Labour can console themselves that the next election is a good one to lose
Of course Brown is doing this to deflect attention. The statement was not originally planned for today - it was sprung on the Opposition and media yesterday.
Having said that, the terrorist threat is very real. Demented Islamists, driven by anti-Western small-dickery, are planning some really nasty shit, as anyone with friends or relatives in the security services will confirm.
As a paranoid anti-authoritarian of questionable sanity, I mostly agree with 2, 4 and 5 about the thinking behind this - although it’s not out of the Blairite playbook in particular. Keeping people scared and persuading them you’re the person to keep them safe is Wielding Power 101.
And I think Mike’s comments about the media operation are missing point about the psychological games being played here, and the politics that feed off them.
The great thing about the Security Theatre being proposed here is that it does an end-run around the media. Once he’s cleared the fairly low hurdle of getting himself associated with these measures, the PM doesn’t need to advertise them - they’ll advertise themselves. There’ll be a Gordon Gate outside your school and a Brown Bollard in front of your shopping center. Everywhere you go there will be big, concrete reminders of the threat we face, and of how much our solid, dependable government is doing to protect us.
How big the political impact will be is hard to gauge, but this will work. It always does.
PS: If you’re interested in the difference between Security Theatre and actual security, it’s worth taking a look at this article by Bruce Schneier:
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/terrorism_secur.html
Why doesn’t he just be open about it and formerly take the salaries of Home Sec and Chancellor?
test
Wow #1, what a disgraceful comment by the Labour PPC! I’m sending it to Stewart so he can do a press release to the local paper, let Peterborough voters see the quality of would be MPs Labour puts up in their city. As it’s likely you, the author of post #1, too bad - you can’t delete it as I’ve captured the whole page in a word document.
You’ve really got to hand it to our beloved Leader - he knows how to raise a laugh. After yesterday’s disclosures of the number of potential terrorists who have been granted licences to work in the security industry, the following quote from the Sun article is excruciatingly funny:
“Major restaurant chains and entertainment centres such as concert venues, cinemas and theatres in big cities are potential targets.
Owners will be ordered to follow the action taken by football clubs. That involves hiring properly-trained doorstaff able to identify potential threats.”
Oh, my aching sides!!
Trip to Basra didn’t work. Maybe a bit of terror at home will.
Gordon must be praying for a few atrocities to give him a good backdrop. He’ll find little to compete with the atrociousness of his own PR efforts.
Unfortunatley for Brown it appears that there is already a superhero called Captain Cobra - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welcome_to_Tranquility
Although he is only listed as a “minor character”
Classic nu-Labour thinking. Announce a big scary headline to frighten us into forgetting how bad the government is and try to make us feel grateful for their ‘protection’.
Bit like the neo-Cons in America, really. Scare people into agreeing with you rather than spending time justifying your actions. Why doesn’t Uncle Gordon focus on dealing with what causes terror attacks instead?
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Gordon Pascoe-Brown reverts to type. Surprised? Scottish Labour supporter puffs up Brown.
Who came up with the need for integrated border force? Answer, the Conservatives yet Pascoe-Brown does not mention it.
I wonder if the Patrick Mercer likes the way his efforts have been used for political advantage? That should deter any other MP offering help to the national Govt.
12 Test - If this is truly a Leyton Orient fan, you can’t touch him. They are a protected species.
I doubt it is genuine however. There are very few of them in the wild and indeed not many in captivity, though their numbers have been growing a little of late.
He really is a disgraceful barrel scraper of a “man”
We’re in the sh1t, he says, lets try and scare the crap out of everyone, so I can appear strong. Oh,and let’s use a document that’s so scary that we cannot release it to the public
Does he really think anyone believes a word he says
14 - This is a despicable statement and just goes to show how much of a bubble most of you who post on here inhabit. My God, GB may play politics (he’s a politician after all!) and may want to be associated with strong anti-terror messages. This is perfectly legitimate. But to state that ANY politician, from whatever side, would welcome some sort of atrocity on British soil so as to exploit it for their own personal ends is atrocious and gross. This site has reached a new low.
And what’s worse, the hyperbole on this site has now become so trenchant and hysterical that a comment like that is posted and it attracts no comment - it is now “The Truth”. Gordon wants to see innocent people killed on the streets of Britain. Hey - I bet he’ll get the SIS to organise something for him, eh? Jesus wept.
If that is his “strategy”, it simply underlines how cynical and self-serving he and his government have become and are broadly viewed by most of us.
It’s increasingly starting to feel like the period 94-97.
20 Relax, Red Flump. Regular readers understand that Tapestry unravelled long ago.
I don’t think it’s any secret that Tapestry lives in his own world…
Some extraneous words seem to have crept into that Sun headline. Surely it should read, “PM Brown bombs”
Oh great! Another stunt. Don’t these fools ever learn?
Significantly, it shows Number Ten accepts the media narrative that Brown has done badly at PMQs. I don’t think that is right but even if it is, how does this help? PMQs will still be held each week.
And is there something odd about the phrase quoted in the Sun (above), “Terrorism can hit us anywhere from any place”? It doesn’t sound quite right; maybe American?
PtP
However, it might be worth getting Nick Palmer’s comments on his putative colleague on the green benches.
Stewart Jackson’s opponent posts
“With an announcement from our leader just days away now, please discuss here who you will be voting for in the election next month.
I am running in the Conservative seat of Peterborough against Stewart ‘The Prick’ Jackson, and I urge you to get out, and VOTE LABOUR.
The Conservative party is still the NASTY party.
LAB GAIN everywhere.
2007- The Fourth Term will begin.”
another fan comments
“If you are actually running for this seat, I don’t think calling your main rival “The Prick” is a great vote winner”
Labour PPC responds
“Me and Stewart do not have a great personal history, and trust me, in his campaign literature that he has lined up, I will be the victim of many a personal attack. So call this a pre-emptive strike if you will.”
Genius Boy PPC goes on (good for a laugh)
“Andy the ballboy:- I don’t think you understand. The wheels aren’t just in motion, we’ve reached the station of ‘Electionville’. Even if the polls miraculously fall back to level pegging, this is still enough for us to secure a comfortable majority. The Tories have again blown it.
Bouff:- Thankyou. Jackson out.
Bogsey:- There’s clearly no hope for people like you.”
25 - Brown’s on ‘PM bombs’ alert
So it seems that the latest counter-terrorism strategy is to construct bendy roads to new stadiums so you can’t drive to them fast. I’m sure we’ll all sleep more safely at night now…
20. The question of whether or not Gordon would welcome such attacks to provide a better backdrop is silly. The question of whether he is manipulating the fear of such attacks for political advantage is not. It is the sort of thing which might be expected to play well with The Sun - providing that it looks as if there is a legitimate basis for the fears.
I can’t help thinking that a part of this is an attempt to bolster support for the proposal to further extend the time terrorist suspects can be held without charge - a measure which is unnecessary and may well prove counterproductive (if you can’t get something useful out of someone in 28 days, I see little prospect of the authorities getting it out of them in 56, 90 or 180 days - but that sort of internment will play badly with the sorts who have been radicalised by the Iraq adventure).
The review of security at large-scale public events is something I’ve been concerned about for a long time - to the extent that I’ve avoided commenting on it until now, when it’s already been brought into the public debate. It seems to me surprising that transport targets have featured so prominently in terrorist attacks, when stadium and concert events contain more people in enclosed spaces, often with limited exit availability. It does make sense to review how secure these places are.
That said, we should not get too worked up. Compared to the level of violence seen during the Northern Ireland troubles, the scale of each individual attack may be more severe now but the frequency is much lower. There is really no good argument that the legal measures that were available to the forces of law and order then are inadequate now. Indeed, as was proved at the time, some of the measures introduced to deal with that problem were unneeded.
27 LOL Test
If it’s all for real, we can rest assured than PPC who uses such language is doomed, and rightly so, but it’s a Leyton Orient blog, for chrissake; what you expecting - blank verse?!
30 Btw, what is it about Peterborough? Didn’t Andrea run into some grief with one of the candidates there?
I like the way The Sun has to say “PM Brown” just so their readers remember who “Brown” is, so anonymous is he of late. Given the way Dave is totally dominating the daily news agenda right now, the lay reader could have been forgiven for thinking he was PM already.
I think DC will have plenty of material to totally crucify the Big Shaking Fist at PMQs today and send him scurrying back to his Bunker for cover.
1 I suspect this is a spoof. My Labour opponent is far too polite. Amusing anyway!
23 O/T PtP. Did you ever get a reply from Aunt Sally? The constant refusal to get back to you over a bet was getting under my skin yesterday.
I hope it resolved itself OK.
It’s an interesting question Mike poses. Is it clever politics for Brown to make all these announcements himself at PMQs?
He hopes it will allow him to dominate the news headlines and reduce Cameron’s ability to expose his vulnerability at the PMQ dispatch box.
But the risk is that he increases the perception that this is a one man government. If he personally aligns himself with every significant policy issue then, when things go wrong as they surely have and surely will, who is in the firing line?
There’s nothing wrong in political terms with attempting to manage and control the news agenda. Mike sums up the problem in his penultimate sentence. “The Brown media relations operation is nothing like as effective as that which existed at Number 10 when Alistair Campbell was running things for Tony”. The difficulty is compounded because Brown promised to spin less. He spins just as much as Blair did but he’s a poor spinner.
Control freakery reaches a new low. The man is trying to micro manage everything.
Reminds me of George Orwell’s 1984 … W’ve got the CCTV .. but the security staff need more work!
This all reads as a very badly written Brian Rix farce..
34 No, he/she never replied, Disraeli.
The bet didn’t bother me, but I do think it’s bad manners when somebody deliberately ignores a perfectly polite comment or question addressed to them.
Labour really have nothing new to offer at all. It’s just the same tired gimmicks recycled over and over again. 45 minute warnings, tanks at Heathrow, and now bombs at rail stations scares. To make matters worse, the people presenting this trash are becoming more and more loathsome.
Have we really got to put up with another two years of this?
38 henri says: “It’s just the same tired gimmicks recycled over and over again…and now bombs at rail stations scares.”
I must have dreamt all that 7/7 stuff…
38. Bit early for you isn’t it? But then I suppose if you don’t have to shave it helps…
39 - Exactly. What we hear prior to 7/7 was “oh this is just Govt hype and lies”, “there is no threat” etc etc.
After the attacks, the same people popped up “Blair has made the UK less safe”, “we told you this would happen” etc.
Damned if you do………..
Stewart
Quite a bit of spin going on here from the opposition. The Mole suggests the impending announcement is not really about terror but about steadying the ship. Mike picks it up but with appropriate caution says it’s “apparently” about showing who’s in charge. Then diverse posters say how outraged they are. They should take it up with The Mole.
We’ve been here before over the Heathrow alert under TB. It is, I think, widely accepted now that it was a genuine alert, but at the time it was interpreted as TB distracting attention from something or other. But what are Governments supposed to do if they think that there is a genuine threat and security needs tightening? Do nothing? Do something, but not tell the Commons? Tell the Commons, but don’t brief the press? I suppose you could argue for the last, but it sets a standard of Edwardian aloofness that no British government is likely ever again to display.
We go through a cycle on attitudes to terror. When bombs go off, there is tremendous outrage - why wasn’t it prevented? Might there have been a rumour that wasn’t fully investigated? Was suspect A not followed closely enough? Should suspect B have been released? We need a public inquiry! It’s a wake-up call for the indolent politicians! But when bombs aren’t going off, then hey, what’s the problem, why is the government going on about it, what’s their game?
I agree with David Herdson that successful explosions are currently rare. The number of people hoping to set them off is (according to MI5 - most of us have no other way of judging) not, however, small, or diminishing. It’s therefore reasonable to consider tightening security and strengthening police powers - subject to the obvious tests of (a) will it help significantly and (b) will there be a significant impact on freedom?
It’s understandable that Brown wants to take charge of a key aspect of security policy. Can’t figure out how this relates to PMQs – I don’t think a high proportion of Sun readers or indeed any national newspaper observes this weekly bit of political sport.
Guido still doesn’t know what the Tory policy is on ratifying the EU Treaty.
http://tinyurl.com/22m7z6
Tories have really got their knickers in a twist on this one. Cam and the opposition front bench have effectively dropped the referendum campaign already but they can’t quite bring themselves to face down the silly old men in the conservative associations.
33. Very random though isn’t it. Why pick a Leyton orient chatroom for that sort of thing.
44. I think you’ll find the campaign hasn’t been dropped and will be stepped up when the treaty goes through Parliament.
When you’re in a hole, start spinng.
43. Oh Nick, life just isn’t fair, is it? All the cuddly Labour government wants to do is keep us all nice and safe, and all people do is carp.
Pull the other one. Your party’s record of exploiting terrorist concerns for their own ends is disgraceful and disqualifies them entirely from being given the benefit of the doubt. After the dodgy dossier and the fake 45 minute claim, people simply don’t believe you on this issue - and nor should they.
When you’re in a hole, start spinning.
Sorry for the outbreak fat finger syndrome.
And as for bird flu, snafu. -Situation Normal All Fowled Up.
20
Spare us the faux outrage RedFlump. Even you must admit that this is a cynical barrel-scraping exercise by an unscrupulous and desperate Prime Minister.
However, with his usual incompetence Brown has probably shot hmself in the foot again. Writing about the terrorist theat in the Sun which, today, is full of governmnent lies and incompetence concerning illegal immigrants working as security guards is not a sensible thing to do IMO.
Even yer average Sun-reader may be able to spot the irony.
43 “Quite a bit of spin going on here from the opposition.”
The gall is breathtaking!
Danish elections results:
Liberals (V) 46 seats (-6)
Social Democrats 45 (-2)
Danish People’s Party 25 (+1)
Socialist People Party 23 (+12)
Conservative People’s Party 18 (u/c)
Social Liberal Party 9 (-8)
New Alliance 5 (+5)
Red-Green Alliance 4 (-2)
FarOer Islands
Union Party 1
Republican Party 1
Greenland
Forward 1
Inuit Community 1
Well, this really is a quiet news day, isn’t it? The substance of the announcement seems to be about urban design, not normally a subject associated with Sun front pages…
What I really want to know from Peter the Punter is why on earth anyone would want to keep a Leyton Orient supporter as a household pet? What advantages do they have over cats?
Bidders for Northern Rock are demanding up to £2bn of interest on its debt the BoE be written off as part of any takeover deal. Perhaps Labour spinners can tell us which hospitals or schools will be closing, or which nurses and teachers are to be sacked to fund this?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/14/northernrock.bankofenglandgovernor1
27: The chap on the Leyton Orient board claiming to be the Peteroborough candidate is Cllr John Bleakney (or at least, claiming to be). Labour’s candidate in Peterborough though is Ed Murphy…
It’s not just Gordon who’s writing in today’s Sun:
“….by treating the public with such contempt, she (Jacqui Smith) is only adding to the reputation for incompetence which has begun to hang around this government like a bad smell.”
Spot on Trevor, me old mate! It’s the Sun wot won it!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
49 - My outrage is not false and I dispute what you say.
Is the Gov’t serious about terrorism?
Any SERIOUS concern would :
stop all illegal immigration - that’s an obvious way to get round security checks.
ensure only vetted people work in security jobs.
ensure All Government Departments showed the country they were whiter yhan white on security and immigration issues
deport illegal immigrants asap.
Smell the coffee.. the Government is either not serious or just incompetent.
Rather than trying to increase the period of detention without trial, first step is to do the basics right.
Rearrange the following words to describe what is going on ” Organise a drinking session in a brewery can’t”.
54 Not THE Ed Murphy, Anthony?!
57. Congratulations on a well reasoned argument for ID cards.
53
RedFlump assured us it was a great deal.. the BOE would make a profit from the interest. You surely don’t believe the Guardian over RedFlump?
[57] Er, as I recall no one convicted of a terrorist offence in this country was an illegal immigrant.
…and meanwhile Brown comes up with another pathetic ‘I’m British’ stunt - British football players for British clubs (BFPBC). Slightly less offensive than the previous slogan…shame it wasn’t his idea though….
http://football.guardian.co.uk/News_Story/0,,2210568,00.html
Within the story, spin alert..what does the following mean?
‘Downing Street has been hugely supportive of the Premier League in recent months’
If you’re going to defend/support this Government, you really need to beleieve in coincidence don’t you. Is the timing of this anything to do with the illegal security worker and it being PMQ’s today. If you’re generous you would say it’s a coincidence, but as a gambler, you have to study form. On that basis, this being another low political trick must be an odds on favourite.
re 1, 12 & 18, 54 etc. “Election Broadcast” is, I believe another name that the poster CJ uses. It will be recalled that he/she was permanently banned for spreading false data about opinion polls and other issues. This person has appeared in a number of guises.
45 Have you ever been to Leyton Orient, Woody? If you had, nothing about their chatroom would surprise you.
Btw, I see Willyanwoody is running at Cheltenham on Friday. I hear very good things about this ex Irish pointer, and if it’s any kind of price, I’ll be backing it.
By the way an increased 86% turnout in Denmark yesterday.
54. As I understand it, Cllr John Bleakney is taking issue with the poster and challenging their authenticity as Ed Murphy- or have I missed something?
I am not sure about the post because I have no “history” with Ed Murphy and my “attack” leaflets were not written.
56, dispute it all you like, I wouldn’t expect anything less from a zaNuLabour apparatchik
However, it’s how the voters regard it that counts and we all know by now that Labour, and Brown in particular, has form for this sort of thing.
44. Captain Spaulding. I think PMQs are very significant for this particular PM. He has no personal mandate, the polls are tight and the next GE too close to call. The media spotlight is on both Brown and Cameron as they and we decide which one of them deserves our vote next time.
The two recent exchanges between Cameron and Brown at PMQs after the non-election and then after the Queen’s speech, were amongst the most dramatic pieces of uk political theatre I have witnessed for a few years. Maybe I should get out more! They formed the lead story on most of the News bulletins and influenced the newspaper reporting.
PMQs matter because for the first time in many years it’s all to play for.
My strong sense is that the Brown media relations operation is nothing like as effective as that which existed at Number 10 when Alistair Campbell was running things for Tony.
No, and neither are intelligence dossiers being sexed-up in order to mislead the public into supporting disastrous foreign wars or MoD scientists being outed as moles in a bid to “f**k” BBC journalists.
67 Well done for not rising to the bait, Stewart.
Peace and harmony returns to PB.com. Ahhhh…..
59 Gabble. “57. Congratulations on a well reasoned argument for ID cards.”
The IS NO well reasoned argument for ID cards!
It just get’s worse for the government and the hapless Jacqui Smith in particular:
“Now Government admits 10,000 illegal immigrants could be in security jobs”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=493299&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
If this story continues into the weekend then her job’s really on the line.
62. Another bit of populaism with no possible solutions. You cannot ban players from the EU playing, and the rule about 4 non Eu players in a team was scrapped on Labour’s watch. I’m not happy with the way some teams have gone with foreign players (Arsenal not fielding one English player on many occasions), but there is nothing that can be done now that won’t be challenged in the courts or result in a breakaway league.
65. Never been to the Orient Peter(thankfully Derby never sunk that low in recent years). If they’re like other London clubs, the chatroom is no surprise. I’ll have a go on that horse. Was quite successful on Itsonlywoody last year (Matt Chapman always gave me a shout out on ATR when that run)
70. Kept them in line though!!
53 [Northern Rock] - bidders may ask for all sorts of things, but the government doesn’t have to give in to them - that is the point of the bidding process. I’d wait and see what the deal accepted is, if anything, before judging it. I can’t see the government subsidising any deal that doesn’t involve at the minimum current shareholders being wiped out, and the market is certainly not anticipating that at the moment.
By the way - if the loans are £20bn, interest of £2bn seems somewhat high, even if the process takes a few more months to happen.
Whatever happened to Orient? Are they still playing football? The last I heard of them was the final match of the season in 1987 in the Fourth division when Burnley looked as though they would get kicked out of the Football League. The home team won and Lincoln became the first League club to automatically lose its place.
76. They’re doing OK at the moment Mike under the inspirational ownership of Barry Hearn. Point off the top in League one. Fair chance Derby may be playing them next year.
Of course they’re after the Olympic stadium. Think Barry is keen on building on Brisbane Road.
Is Brown really THAT desperate?
70. Paul Linford. Fair point.
But it does not negate the fact that a government needs an effective news management operation if it is to achieve favourable coverage and control of the news agenda.
Brown’s spinning machine is clunky, tends to warp the thread and too often breaks down through heavy handed use. It should be returned to the manufacturer.
Tomorrow could be Ashcroft’s big day according to the Guardian, he may have to actually come and live here.
http://tinyurl.com/2kg9nj
54 No the poster claims they are Cllr Bleakney. Also for a spoof, the poster seems to know an awful lot about Peterborough council - claims he’s 49 and heavyset, shall we say.
But if you are standing against someone else guess it doesn’t apply anyway! I’d be asking Bleakney if he posted that though, is he an Orient fan?
80. The nation awaits the outcome on tenterhooks…hahaha
82: As the nation says ‘Lord Ashcroft? Who?’
31. “Didn’t Andrea run into some grief with one of the candidates there? ”
PtP, it was with someone claiming to be Helen Clarke, the former MP
56: Oh come one, it’s the most predictable thing on the world, Government in trouble (again) so we get some terror story.
It’s so utterly lame. We KNOW there’s a terror threat. It would be a bit lower if we had any kind of control of our borders, but we don’t, and when the Home Secretary finds out yet another concrete exampe of how shambolic the system is, she covers it up for 4 months for media presentation reasons.
And then lo and behold, next day we have some scary terror headlines. I’m SICK of it. Never has the public been held in such contempt or so patronised than by Brown. Never thought i would miss Blair.
69. I can’t see Brown ever being a wizard at PMQs. Same problem that Blair had with Hague - I never used to follow it that much but I understand that Hague generally won the debating points.
As long as the Government can start to articulate its policies more clearly then I don’t think this will be much of problem in the long term.
See Heff is calling for an end to the Union.
http://tinyurl.com/32kgwg
On the Ashcroft, what he does with his money, don’t care!
But the only people who should be able to belong to, vote for, or support financially or in any way work for any British political party should be, ‘British Citizens Domiciled in the UK’
80.
Why would he want to do that its November?
Maybe Cameron has told him he better keep his promises.
As the public might get the wrong perception about his philanthropy for his good courses, which got him into the house of lords.
However its nothing to do with cash for honours as we all know.
The Great Terror Crisis Spin Day seems to be unravelling, whatever the intentions.
http://adamboulton.typepad.com/my_weblog/
You just can’t trust those pesky Admirals.
86 - this has turned into something of a tory myth about hague.
In my opinion, and from I remember other “normal” people saying, he came over very badly at PMQs (did he ever come over well in any circumstances!). To me, getting somewhat alliterative, it was petty point scoring from a political pygmy peppered with pathetic pre-prepared puns and toe-curlingly embarassing jokes.
He came over as someone with little concern for bread and butter issues. 48 hours to save the pound anyone
Talking of spin, the folk here yesterday who rated David Davis over Jacqui Smith yesterday will be disappointed in the Times, Guardian and Telegraph sketches today - actually the first time I can remember Simon Hoggart being even slightly positive about a Labour minister. (And before we start again, voxpop, I wasn’t there so have no personal idea on how it went…)
On the other hand, credit to Stewart Jackson for his restraint in the face of what appears to be an unpleasant spoof.
Quick Danish round-up: the election result was almost exactly status quo in strategic terms - the government lost 5 seats to the pro-government New Alliance, the left-leaning social liberals lost heavily to the popular socialists, but the centre-right still leads the centtre-left 95-84. Both the changes mentioned are shifts to the left within the two broad alliances, which may produce a slight relaxation in asylum policy (the New Alliance is strongly pro-EU and pro-asylum). An EU referendum looks unlikely as the Conservatives and Liberals who make up the government look unenthusiastic about the idea.
90
Can’t say I agree thought Hague was an exceptional debater, often bested Blair. Where PB’rs may be getting it wrong, is over-emphasising PMQ’s importance outside the Westminster village, and amongst the, ‘Interested Classes’
Well even if he was any good at PMQs he was appalling at winning votes. In many ways the 2001 results was a greater failiure than 1997. He’s had a bit of renaissance since then as we Brits warm to plucky losers. Bless.
we Brits warm to plucky losers
No chance Brown will ever be liked, in that case.
91: Then you must agree with their opinions about your parties leader?
90. Hague’s reputation was largely based on a single brilliant performance during a debate on the Government’s “annual report” in 1998 in which he accurately predicted that the public’s attitude to New Labour would go “from fascination to admiration to disullusionment to contempt.” He quite literally brought the House down by highlighting a paragraph in the report which boasted about a new English National Sports Institute in Sheffield which was had in fact never been built and which had been cancelled after the report hads gone to the printers. It remains one of the great parliamentary tours-de-force of recent years.
94
Nice one Henri. I agree, Labour’s likely fourth term would suggest that Brown will not get plucky loser status. Cameron on the other hand clearly has a chat show circuit career there for the taking.
We’ll I’ve always said, if a politician wants to be liked, (particularly by their own party) don’t win a GE, even better lose one by a landslide! Win three times Thatcher/Blair every body hates you!
Smith may had the verbal support of Gordon Brown yesterday, but he wasn’t anywhere near a government bench when she was making her statement, unless of course he is a master of disguise.
99 True, she only had ‘Buff’ Hoon and her own juniors. I didn’t see any other cabinet members there risking infection, did you?
97 ‘Labour’s likely fourth term’ There’s optimism.
#89 Lord West has apparently retracted his earlier comments on the Today program after being slapped down by Gordon Brown.
Labour’s fourth term with a majority of 40+. I’ve said it once and I’ve said it again!
103. Yes, it was crap then, and it is now as well.
102-Unfortunately, Brown won’t listen to him…
103. Doesn’t mean that in any way we believe it though Redflump.
O/T US polls make interesting reading this morning. Mike Huckabee has surged into second place in Iowa (behind Mitt Romney) and his campaign seems to be gaining some momentum despite missing out on a couple of big conservative endorsements.
Obama seems to be closing the gap on Clinton in New Hampshire - drawing support from Edwards too - but Iowa is still wide open for the Democrats.
A word of warning - the national polls aren’t particularly meaningful at this stage of the US election cycle and the state polls are pretty volatile and historically inaccurate because of the high number of “undecided” voters, especially in Iowa.
Well! if third terms are difficult, fourth terms,(very rare) are a disaster. Labour posters have to ask themselves, a fourth term may be possible,(maybe) but is it desirable?
If Labour win a fourth term, they won’t just be pushing the envelope, we’ve got a new envelope. In that new envelope, I doubt if the present party political system would survive.
108 - Just to see the smug little grins wiped from Osborne’s face will be payback enough for a 4th term.
‘Playing politics with terror’ is an extremely serious allegation to make and I am more than a little annoyed that many people here seem to be willing to make it without presenting much evidence. Even if you disagree with some of the government’s measures (and I have to admit that I’m not overjoyed about ID cards) claiming that the government is hyping the terrorist threat to seize the agenda is only a few steps away from Ron Paul and Michael Moore style conspiracy theories.
[108] Indeed. For all the scorn that people heap on Kinnock, he did keep the show on the road, assisted no doubt by the propensity of the Trades Unions’ leaders to hang together for fear of hanging separately.
There is no comparable ballasting mechanism in the Conservative party. Next time really is a sh*t or bust election for them - which I think explains a lot of the hysteria on here from Tory posters. It is also why I think the voters will want to give Cameron a chance, albeit on a very short rein (perhaps five or ten seats short of an outright majority): the interesting point then will be whether he tries to govern for a substantial length of time on that basis or looks for a second, opportunistic, quick poll. I think he’d be better off with the first option (which would certainly lead to sounder economic policies), and that it would be more than doable because the other parties would be licking their wounds…
109
Nice thought! but I try to look beyond that.
All governments will try to make political capital out of, ‘threats’ both internal and external. The present government is doing no more or less than governments have done before. Its a classic tactic, ranging from the, Anarchists and the Bolshevik Card.
The problem any opposition has, is to oppose the government’s policy on terrorism, if a major terrorist attack occurs, the government can immediately paint them as ’soft’
111 - Yes, if the Tories manage to lose the next election (or Labour manages to win!) then Cameron and his pals are surely toast.
109. How juvenile.
110. Yes its a pity but earlier down the thread someone mentioned the old “45 minutes” claim….if the Government didn’t have history with this then I don’t think people would get so worked up.
113 With a majority of less than 40 so is Brown and moderate Labour.
A fourth term would be hijacked by the hard left.
111
The problem I see for Cameron, is that the coalition that he is building is unstable. The only thing binding that coalition together is dislike of the present government.
The instability of that coalition was exemplified in the two reports, one produced by Redwood the other by Goldsmith, totally contradicting each other.
The Labour Party suffered for years from similar contradictory views on the economy, the neo-Marxist view, ‘Its rubbish, lets get rid of it’ the Social Democrat view, ‘Its not rubbish, it needs reforming’
I wonder how long, the Blue/Greens will live with the likes of Redwood etc.
108 Coldstone “If Labour win a fourth term, they won’t just be pushing the envelope, we’ve got a new envelope. In that new envelope, I doubt if the present party political system would survive.”
You can’t leave us all hanging like that, Man!
What do you mean? What WILL replace the present party political system in that case?
And why do you think this?
116
‘Hard left’ hmmmm ‘gorn the way of the Dodo!
Funny, I never bought the “playing politics with terror” accusations against Blair, perhaps because his neo-convervative opinions were patantly sincere, whatever you thought of them.
Somehow I cannot bring myself to give Brown the benefit of the doubt.
Just who is going to pay for all this when the government won’t be put anything into necessary transport infrastructure? The idea that every restaurant will need to take step to protect customers from bombs in risible - there is more likelihood of danger of the roof collapsing than being killed by a bomb whilst enjoying a night out.
We really are getting into “reds under the beds” territory here.
111 and 113. It would depend on the nature of any such defeat. If Labour did win by 40 or so, then I suspect that Cameron would have to step down. If they won by, say, 10, and the Conservatives made big gains off the Lib Dems, then I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t.
My view at this stage is that if there were a swing of sufficient magnitude to put the Conservatives within a few seats of an overall majority, in practice, the Conservative probably would win an overall majority, because the public would have turned decisively against Labour, and in a lot of Con/Lib Dem marginals, would probaby decide to vote for the new government, rather than sticking with Lib Dem incumbents.
108
In the event of a fourth Labour win, if the Union is still in existence, the pressure for the Conservatives to declare their intention to end it, will be enormous, see Heff this morning.
Most English Conservatives have lost all patience with the Scots in particular, they’ve never noticed the Welsh anyway.
The Conservatives would morph into what would be in effect, The English Nationalist Party, (it already is really).
The Labour Party shorn of its Celtic wing would be a totally different animal than it is today. There would then be pressure to produce a viable party of the Centre left, to combat Conservative English hegemony. The Libdems and Labour would have no alternative to re-establish links, eventually a merger.
Even though I have forsworn never under any circumstance to join any political party, I would feel bound to support such a party in someway, others would feel the same. If for no other reason than to ensure there was a viable alternative to the Conservatives.
117 Good point. An even more bizarre example of this unstable coalition is ultra-Left Andrew Gilligan backing Boris Johnson for Mayor.
That said, if the Conservatives were to win, and proved to be reasonably competent in the first term, there’d probably be enough people willing to give them a second term to survive the loss of some members of this coalition.
121. Quite - it’s pure gimmickry, as usual. Hardly a week seems to pass now without the government making some ridiculous commitment (on schools funding, bank deposit guarantees, ‘ending poverty’ etc etc) it knows full well it can’t possibly meet.
[118] Oh we’ve discussed it a few times on here, though not so much recently. The ideological logic is for a social democratic party (say Kinnock-Smith type Labour), a “liberal” party in both the social and economic sense and an authoritarian nationalist party. FPTP blurs these lines in favour of electable co-alitions whose inner logic is predicated on success.
Let me peer into my crystal ball a little more. Let’s suppose Cameron wins without an outright majority, behaves opportunistically and actually loses seats (though not his largest party status) at the following election 12 months later, in which the Lib Dems recover the ground they lost in the previous one.
Labour’s new leader opportunistically backs PR, for which there then is a majority in the Commons. A deal is stitched up to allow the existing Parliament to run for four years, with the following one elected with an AMS element (20-25% of MPs).
The parties would then find it in their interests to provide ideological clarity to maximise their core votes. If the Tories didn’t fancy the authoritarian nationalist cloak (some do, some don’t) a new party would emerge to wear it, and the Tories and the Lib Dems - and some new Labour - would come together, while the rest of Labour returned to its social democratic roots.
re 59 there are 300+ million people with the right to live and work here. Presumably they’ll get an ID card on proffering their EU passport. If the standard of getting an EU passport is not as high as ours then it’ll be an obvious loophole which will exploited by every criminal in Europe. Or is the Passport agency going to be doing the work of all the other EU passport agencies as well?
Salaam from a very sunny Luxor.
I know this is slightly off-topic, but King Tutankhamun is in the news and I think I have discovered something pretty amazing about his dad.
Tutankhamun’s father, as any fule kno, was the crazy pharaoh Akhenaten, who introduced monotheism to Egypt (specifically, worship of the Aten, the universal sun god).
Yesterday I went to the lost city of Akhenaten, Tell el Amarna, in the remote middle Nile. This city was built by Akhenaten for him and his beautiful but loopy wife Nefertiti.
Akhenaten was madder than a bag of tadpoles. He had several daughters and had sex with most of them, as documents attest. He then buried the daughters in their own tombs at the back of Tell el Amarna. I saw these desolate tombs for myself.
For many centuries people have wondered what happened to Akhenaten’s mummy. It apparently disappeared and has never been found. His own tomb is empty.
But now I think I’ve worked it out.
Let’s go through the facts we have about Akhenaten.
He liked building, he had a mad wife he loved very much, he had sex with his daughters who he then buried in the back yard.
He reincarnated as Fred West!
That’s my theory! I know it’s shocking but I think if you look at the facts it’s almost incontrovertible. Akhenaten disappeared because he reincarnated many centuries later as deranged Gloucestershire odd job man Fred West.
I intend to present a paper on this to the British Musuem when I return.
Salaam aleikum.
Who is President Boosh?
GB just referred to him at PMQs. Is it something to do with that wacky comedy show on BBC3?
128 You may well be on to something there, SeanT.
And speaking of mummies, does yours know you are out on your own?
129 - now he’s talking about a “great sporting dickhead”.
Why doesn’t he talk English?
128 I’ve always thought there’s a considerable physical resemblance between Fred West and Jamie Oliver.
129 Ah, the mighty boosh.
Checkmate Cameron. GB cannot answer this one can he?!
Gordon Brown is dying on his feet!!!
I look forward to labour spinners defending that performance by Brown.
Hooray for DC!
Brown awful. Refused to say when he knew, let’s see what the press makes of that.
The best question has come from Cable on Northern Rock. I don’t really care whether the Home office told brown about security checks, what’s more intresting is his refusal to confirm the £24 billion figure.
and Vince Cable did bloody well too
Why won’t he answer that question ?
The silence on both sides shows the shock at this performance.
Conservative MP wants five-year plan for agriculture shock.
111. I don’t think a second poll after, say, two years, should be considered “opportunitistic”. If Cameron fails to win an overall majority in 2009 / 2010, he is entitled to seek one at the earliest opportunity for the sake of stable governance amongst other things. Of course if he failed to set out a programme from which to seek a mandate, he would be accordingly punished by the electorate.
140. Possibly he wasn’t told and doesn’t want to land smith in it.
As someone only ‘watching’ through reading the posts here, it’ll be interesting to see if the reality matches the picture being painted…will let you know later.
138,139- Cable was great!
140.&144.From the debate yesterday. “Mr. Michael Howard (Folkestone and Hythe) (Con): When the fiasco first came to light, did the Home Secretary tell the Prime Minister? If not, why not? If she did, did the Prime Minister remind her of his promise to abandon spin and embrace candour?
Jacqui Smith: I did not tell the Prime Minister because there was not a fiasco; action was taken to strengthen the system, and there was an investigation to provide the evidence to allow an explanation to be given to the public. There was no fiasco or blunder; there was strengthened and improved action.”
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmhansrd/cm071113/debtext/71113-0005.htm
Why is Cable not a candidate for LD leader?
He would be a far better bet than Clegg or Huhne.
I would strongly advise Brown to take betablockers about 45 mns before PMQ’s. Then he would be able to serenley peel grapes whilst talking rather than gripped by raw anxiety stammer and stutter his way through the adverse questions.
The DNA database question was seriously misleading.
Anyone remember when Skinner used to have the House in stitches with his pithy and incisive questions? Time he called it a day, i think…
Why hasn’t DC used up all his questions? Missed opportunity (unless i’ve miscounted..!)
Why is there no live PMQ’s thread. Has Mike got fed up with all the smug Tories on here?
As for today’s announcement about security, I’m not really concerned that Brown may be taking over the delivery from someone else. We have to expect a bit of politics, don’t we? What really matters is whether the policy is influenced by this. It seems sensible given what happened in Glasgow in the summer for measures to be considered to bolster our defences.
What really puzzles me, is why Brown is persisting with boosting the number of days without charge past 28. Does he have public opinion on his side? The arguments didn’t work under Blair and there aren’t really any new ones that can be used now. The 2 possible answers I can give are:
1) Relentlessly cynical - Brown wants to gain advantage on what he thinks is a strong issue for him.
2) I’m drawn again to that Nicholas Watt article on Brown. The PM has his daily security briefing at 7:15am. Could the daily warnings from the security bods - who want extra funding like every other department - induce paranoia?
148
I thought the LibDems were intent on chosing the wrong leader. they keep practsing at it.:-)
I agree about Cable.. the man seems very competent, speaks well, has common sense and has a record of actually living and making a success of the real world.