Will Tory voters once again switch to Ken?
November 16th, 2007-
UPDATE - YouGov puts him 6% behind?
[UPDATE I wrote this article before getting news of a new YouGov poll on the mayor race which has Ken leading Boris 45-39% on first preferences and 53-47% after second. This is probably better than the Tories would have expected at this stage and clearly everything will depend on turnout levels]
The Tories have not got a good record when it has come to finding someone suitable to fight Britain’s biggest election - the four yearly contest for mayor of London where there’s a single electorate of millions.
Their first selection ahead of the 2000 race was Lord Archer who ran into a “spot of bother”. He was replaced by Steve Norris who hammered the official Labour candidate and came second to Livingstone. Norris’s 2004 bid against Ken, who had been readmitted to Labour in spite of Brown, was plagued by his links with Jarvis just as rail safety became a mega-issue.
Now they’ve got Boris who has a high public profile but is vulnerable to being portrayed as the loveable baffoon from TV comedy shows.
On the face of it Johnson should be looking at 2008 with some confidence - the Tories are riding high in the polls and the electoral system gives them a unique advantage over Labour. For the Mayor is elected by taking the aggregate of votes across London meaning that Tory areas, where there are high turnouts, have disproportionately more impact on the outcome than the Labour areas where turnout levels are lower.
Alas it has not worked like that. By comparing the London Authority results, where the voting takes place at the same time, it’s clear that large numbers of Tory voters, about one in six, were prepared to switch to Ken’s Labour in the mayoral election.
So a key task for the Tories is to stop the seepage and to pick up second preferences from the Lib Dems and the plethora of other candidates that are likely to be running.
-
Ken has carefully crafted himself into a brand that is above party and it is hard to see what Johnson can do.
He might find the “baffoon” tag to be less damaging than Norris’s “Jarvis” but my guess is that enough Tory voters will go for Ken to give him a third term.
For Dave the promlem is that however well the Tories do in next May’s local elections it will be this London result that makes the headlines.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike, correct me if I’m wrong (in Dubai at the moment so cannot check), but didn’t Norris do rather well last time, improving his vote share significantly and coming within a whisker of displacing an incumbent?!
Boris is potentially a liability, I agree. It is difficult to really see what sort of message he can carve out, of any relevance to the London electorate. Executive elections, much more so than legislative ones such as those for Parliament, will be decided on percieved technocratic competence, and whilst Ken is hardly God’s gift to that field, we have chosen someone who seems almost to make a living from appearing the exact opposite!
Ken is worth more than 150,000 votes than the Labour ‘ticket’. Boris will do worse than Norris (Norris was serious). The question for the Tories (and Lib Dems) is rather than stopping Ken - how much more of his ‘premium’ can they grab in the constituencies and GLA list?
Two questions:
What will happen to Brown if Labour fails to make gains in the next May’s local election?
If Ken wins again what will happen to Cameron?
O/T-Democratic debate:
Hillary was best, she was more relaxed. Obama was good, but not enough.Biden was the “funny guy”, and Edwards was very angry with everything, specially with Clinton. CNN people are saying that Hillary was very good, and that the first 15 minutes were “very heated”(Hillary and Obama clashed, Obama said that she could not give straight answers, and she replied saying he couldn’t answer straight questions about the universal health service).I think she captured the mood again(that is, as I said before, my humble opinion.Sorry for the long post)
3. On your second point, the impact on Cameron is pretty negligible just as Ken’s first victory was on Blair. This is a sideshow and people do not see executive elections such as mayoralties, as being about “parties” or voting for them. This is a good old US-style clash of (autonomous) personalities.
Agree with #4. Just goes to show that Hillary’s got the best team of advisors out there, with perhaps only Romney’s adisory team coming close.
I think there ewas a mayoral poll out yesterday or the day before - i caught it on one of the London news programmes. Ken 53 Boris 47 after second prefs. I suspect Boris could surprise a few people like Dan.
I think you underestimate the extent to which Ken’s precept is starting to significantly impact on Council tax, especially in the “low tax” areas.
The link to the YouGov poll is here
About 11:30 minutes in.
45-39 on first preferences
53-47 after second.
Watch out for some top analysis from BBC London’s political reporter!
In answer to the headline, protracted incumbency is always going to mean shedding voters whose choice was driven by shallow or tactical considerations. They will find some reason to be cross with Ken - which is not difficult.
So I suspect Boris will start with a number of transfering Tory supporters, or at least Labour abstensions.
But it will count for nought if he sticks his foot in it. What price is offered anywhere for that?
That’s a reasonably close poll. However, I’m as confident of Ken beating Boris as I am of anything in politics. Accordingly I’m concerned that my charity bet with ??? on the subject isn’t in the list of pb.com’s recorded wagers. Can anyone remember what it was, and with whom, and can whoever it was confirm we’re still on?
Thanks to “Me” at 4 for the US election update - very interesting, and not too long at all. It seems pretty clear that Hillary is strolling to the nmomination. I wonder, though, whether people aren’t underestimating the Republicans for the actual Presidency. Look: we now have the Democrats streets ahead in general Congressional polls, we have plenty of publicity for the Democrats and a clear leader who makes few mistakes, we have a Republican race with a bunch of flawed characters beating each other up. And what do most of the polls show between any plausuble pair of candidates, e.g. Guiliani vs Clinton or vs Obmaa? The Democrat candidate just 5% or so ahead. Once the Reps unite behind someone and get their act together, that doesn’t look a comfortable lead. (I wish it were otherwise but we try to be objective most of the time here.)
Nick Palmer MP @ 11 re America — yes, the head-to-head polls show narrowish leads for Democrats but that says a lot.
Hillary Clinton is the most polarising candidate, viscerally hated by many on the right, and yet she still leads all of the Republican candidates.
Bush has shattered the Republican coalition. Ron Paul is attracting the libertarian right and anti-war voters (especially on the web since the papers ignore him), Huckabee looks best-placed to pick up the religious right, and Giuliani the country club wing.
Nick Palmer @ 11: Are you as confident as you were when you predicted a 100+ seat majority in the November GE?
The killer figure for both Ken and Boris (though in obviously opposite ways) is the 45% first preferences for Ken. If he achieves that on the day, he’ll be home and dry. Boris’ job has to be to get that down without putting off the supporters of other candidates who are split equally if the figures are reliable - I don’t know whether the sample size there would be sufficient to make that sort of assumption.
Even so, it’s pretty close and I don’t think either candidate will be too unhappy with those scores. There’s plenty of time to go and being within a few points of a winning total is ok for the challenger to someone who seems to be a popular incumbent; being ahead is even better for Livingstone.
btw, were the other candidates’ / parties’ scores listed? The Lib Dems must be close to single figures once UKIP, BNP, Green and Respect are taken into account.
13: I didn’t predict a 100+ seat majority, I said it was “possible though not yet likely” or something on those lines. Since we didn’t have it, we’ll never know!
Good Morning All,
I think Ken can win next year in what may be a pretty thin year for Labour in 2008. A Ken win will be a little boost to the govt. and a reminder to Cameron - you ain’t there yet. People may intially plump for BJ because of his appeal and persona, but I honestly think that when it actually comes down to it Londoners will realise that they cannot hand control of the city to Boris. Nice guy and a hoot to boot, he is just not a person that inspires confidence.
O/T - was so angry watching Dragon’s Eye (Welsh politics prog) last night. A multi-million pound investment in RAF St Athan (5000+ jobs in technical maintenance, a technical campus the works - not to mention the spin off jobs) is being questionned by pacifist boobs in Plaid Cymru who want to totally “demilitarise” Wales. Wales won this project against stiff competition from around the UK and it is to be sited in the Vale of Glamorgan (Lab ultra-marginal! So v important!) What the hell are these people thinking? Like we can afford to throw thousands of highly paid professional jobs away? Tcha!
I made well over £1000 in 2000 betting that Ken would not get 50% of the vote on first count even though the polls had him well over that and Norris was down at 17%. Turnout is king.
The problem with this poll is that at this stage it is almost all about name recognition and both Ken and Boris are well known.
Mike Smithson
16. RF. Yes, the nationalist parties are by and large dreamers unfit to govern. This has been demonstrated quite starkly in Scotland in the last week. I would expect a big poll reaction against the SNP (LDs as main benficiaries, with perhaps even some going to Con?)
Boris is clearly keeping a low profile - he doesn’t want his message to be drowned out by the LibDem leadership saga gripping the nation.
He’ll crank up the campaign soon enough, all guns blazing - with not all the shots aimed at his feet….
The problem with Ken is that he is 100% comitted to the job, has been quite bold in his actions and does seem to have a grip on some tricky problems. A 3rd term looks like a good idea.
15 Nick Palmer Didn’t you actually say, “To be precise, Labour’s lead in 1997 was 12.5%, converting into a majority of 179. I don’t think we’d quite achieve that, but 100 looks increasingly possible.”
Best Tory outcome for the Mayoral election is a clear Boris lead on first preferences, but LDs & others to back Ken on their second preferences, thus ensuring Ken narrowly squeaks in by the narrowest of margins. Tories can claim a moral victory, as Boris “wins” the most votes with Ken lacking any real mandate, but Ken remaining in office with Boris not getting his hands anywhere near the reins of power. The thought of Boris being the most powerful Tory in the land and being a complete and unmitigated disaster in office is the last thing the Tories need, and could scupper their GE hopes in 2010.
My scenario above is a win/win for the Tories. Please Ken, don’t blow it!
22 - and I should say this very encouraging poll, long before the campaign starts, shows that my scenario may not be that fanciful.
21. A semantic point: saying something is possible is not the same as predicting it.
4 Yes I agree. Edwards has completely overdone the anger. It’s a shame because he probably has the most complete policy portfolio. Peter from Putney will be happy with Hillary’s performance from his betting standpoint.
Test
Why can’t I post, what’s going on!
Tories won’t back Ken this time. He’s revealed too much of his true colours in his second term. A nasty, arrogant and useless man who has wasted a fortune on ill-conceived projects and whose fawning over Chavez was a regression back to the worst excesses of the GLC.
And that’s before we even start on his lionising of terrorist-supporting Islamist clerics.
Re. the quality of Nick Palmer’s predictions, it’s worth thinking back a few weeks to when he confidently predicted government support for Northern Rock wouldn’t cost the taxpayer a penny. Now it seems even his own Chancellor isn’t sure…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d77107c-92f5-11dc-ad39-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
This is frustrating. Perfectly acceptable post with no offensive words, but it won’t appear. Re-posting it just brings up a “duplicate thread - you’ve already posted this” message. What am I doing wrong?
I think Boris running was a good move by DC.
He wins : DC is genuis
He loses : Ah Boris is Boris..
terrorist-supportung Islamist clerics, hmmm how unlike the Conservative Islamic Foundation (or whatever its called) at Conservative Party HQ (or whatever its called) that thinks Iran having the ‘bomb’ is a good thing.
Boris! is he still running? thought he was in the USA running his fingers through Hillary Clinton’s underwear draw. The ‘good citizens’ of London, may find Ken a bit flakey at times, but the idea they’ll kick him out for a total looney like Boris, is risible.
Gabble better make sure there isn’t a copy of The Independent in 10 Downing Street today:
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/matthew_norman/article3166401.ece
Ouch!!!
123, testing, 123
I wonder if I should try posting it line by line until I get to the offending phrase!?! It’s bizarre, there’s nothing in my post that could conceivably get caught for offensive words, not that I can view the Banned List as my work PC won’t let me because of the offensive material! Grrr…
(It’s not even that good a post..!)
33 Ouch indeed, but bang on the money.
bob Sykes That happened to me recently. I have emailed Mike to ask if he can tell me why ( so I can avoid the problem in future) but so far I have had no reply.
OT: re the LD snoreathon on QT last night, being a politics nut, this was compulsive viewing for me - well, the 8 minutes between the end of The Mighty Boosh and the start of Granada Soccer Night was…
- and I can’t help thinking we are going to see a firming up of the Tory and Labour vote shares whoever the LDs elect. In the bit I saw where they were debating Iran, I thought Posh Boy Cleggy came across like a sixth-form debater, all shouty and lacking erudition, whilst The Mighty Huhne was John Major reincarnate. But at least he looks and sounds like a LD and is sure to win the activist vote, isn’t he?
Either way, I think Dave and Old Shakey-Fists have nothing to fear from this lot. Two party politics returns.
And I do think that when it comes to LD-inclined voters, as opposed to members, there will have been only one winner amongst those viewing at home - David Cameron!
Hooray! It appears that the phrase “v-a-l-i-u-m f-e-s-t” was what was stopping my post appearing. Replacing it with “snoreathon” seems to have done the trick.
How bizarre! Mike, why on earth is that phrase objectionable?!!
Anyway, hope it was worth it…(!)
I expect Paddick to start making some impact on the figures in the new year. I think he can cut into both Borris and Ken’s shares. If Borris bombs on some stupid comment, Paddick could theoretically come through the middle. I don’t think Borris can beat Ken, but a centrist candidate could…
Considering all the things that Labour has thrown at Boris day in day out they’ll be worried that he’s not further behind.
This time four and eight years ago there were predictions by the Liberal Democrats that Kramer and Hughes were well placed to come through the middle, neither did.
I read something interesting a while back (could have been on here) that the majority of white indigenous voters in Greater London tend increasingly to vote Tory while the majority of black/asian and other “ethnic” (for want of a better word) voters favour Labour. Is there any evidence for this and if so does Boris need to capture more ethnic votes if he is going to defeat Red Ken?
41 - Labour won’t be complacent at all about Boris. They know he is popular with da yoof and with a wide range of Londoners. He is well-known. Unfirtunately for him, he is well known for being, well, a bit of a fool (no matter how intelligent he is). Ken is also popular amongst a wide range of people.
43
Boris could always adopt a, ‘piccaninny’ that might do it!
44 - “unfortunately” I meant!
I’m sure Paddick will pick up more support. I’d love to see him finish second.
43 Boris could try blacking up and singing, ‘Mammy’ Oh God! he probably will.
47. He just needs to be photographed, Andrew Neil style, with a member of an ethnic minority.
Apropros of nothing - for those who were following the issue earlier in the week, the Leyton Orient blogging posts were spoofs I think - but but whom and for what reason I simply do not know.
On topic, I think the pessimism about Boris is misplaced.
Firstly, campaigning infrastructure in London is strong for the Conservatives and Labour’s has been incrementally weakened over the last 8 years - and in a smallish turnout election (38% maybe) this will be vital. Why will Labour be able to do better next year than their abysmal performance in the Borough elections in May 2006?
Secondly, Ken has said and done some stupid things in the last 3 years which irritate and annoy key voters - who will be reminded of the fact that deep down he is a machine politician with a nasty side. Incumbeny will also inevitably work against him after 8 years
Thirdly, Boris is as least as well known as Ken with most age groups in London and so Ken’s hitherto insurmountable name recognition advantage is to an extent neutralised.
46-39 to Ken at this stage is a poor rating for the Labour Mayor - and its all to play for.
49
Of course Boris doesn’t have a nasty side, how can you call a man who drags his mistress to an abortion clinic nasty?
A man who was associated with Darius Guppy a violent pyschopath, nasty, heaven forbid!
My apologies for this. Within one of the words there might be a group of characters that are on the spam list. It’s quite hard for me to pinpoint it even when I have a copy of the offending comment.
This is just one of the prices we have to pay for instant publishing
50. Those who heard Boris at the Tory Conference - a little overshadowed by election fever - will know that he can produce an effective blend of serious and amusing. Those who underestimate Boris do so at their peril. If he is taking this ‘quiet time’ to build an effective policy and implementation team around him, then he will win. If he’s just twiddling his thumbs, he’ll lose. We’ll find out in January.
[49] Stewart, those are all fair points. But you know what this place is like. Bob Sykes wrote ealier: he thought of Boris being the most powerful Tory in the land and being a complete and unmitigated disaster in office is the last thing the Tories need, and could scupper their GE hopes in 2010. You need to express confidence in Boris’s executive skills - “you” being every Tory in London or out of it - or you’ll be constantly ribbed that you don’t have any!
52. And, Mike, what markets are there in the mayoral contest?
52- I personnally thought his speech at the Conference quite amusing but far too short to reallys assess his grasp of the issues.
40 - “If Borris bombs on some stupid comment, Paddick could theoretically come through the middle. I don’t think Borris can beat Ken, but a centrist candidate could…”
We’ve had some wishful thinking on the site lately but this is not far off Francis’ “Gary Bushell for PM” comment. It just isn’t going to happen.
New biography of Boris:
http://tinyurl.com/yv8sab
53 - and therein lies the problem. I don’t think any Tories do have confidence in Boris, other than as a comic turn and a popular figure out in the country. I can’t speak for them of course, as I’m not from London and I’m not “a Tory” strictly speaking. But given his gaffe-prone persona I cannot see a bumbling idiot either being elected or being any good if he is.
DC would have been better letting a non-entity getting picked and coming a poor second. But as I say, the dream scenario seems very realistic to me - a Boris “win” on overall vote share but Ken squeaking in on 2nd prefs. I couldn’t see that happening under Boff or Borwick et al. So perhaps it will prove to be another Cameron masterstroke?
I would like to know, (perhaps someone will explain it to me) how a Catholic Conservative, living in London, can vote for a man, who (in their view) murdered his child. I’d love to see Anne Widdicombe endorse Boris,
PA reports: The only council by-election this week saw Tories score a landslide victory to hold a previously marginal seat.
They tripled their majority at Lincolnshire County Council’s Heighington and Washingborough division despite a huge drop in turnout since the previous contest, which was on the same day as the last general election.
Of the five other candidates, only Labour’s managed more than 10%.
A more balanced picture may emerge next week when at least eight by-elections are reported.
RESULT:
Lincolnshire County - Heighington and Washingborough: C 877, Lab 206, Lib Dem 137, BNP 126, Ukip 52, Ind 21. (May 2005 - C 1750, Lab 1534, Ukip 419). C hold. Swing 20.7% Lab to C.
16 - Two questions to Redflump: does the document really argue to “totally demilitarise Wales” as you allege or are you just scaremongering? Secondly, do you think the document has much chance of being passed by Plaid Cymru’s National Council tomorrow, bearing in mind the view of the leadership on Sain Tathan?
59: There is low and then there are posts like that. Mike ought to ban you.
59
Are you saying that Boris Johnson did not force Petronella Wyatt, (something he has never denied) to have an abortion, yes or no?
I am going to be writing to Cardinal Paddy O’Thick asking him for his advice on this matter.
61 Hi Padarn,
To be fair to PLaid, I don’t think anyone in the WA government from Pliad is saying this - but there seems to be a vocal pacifict elelment within PLaid that does not want this development.
I think this is naive and crackers, but there you go. I’m sure Ieuan WJ will tell them to shut it.
63 - Isn’t there a rock somewhere that you should be crawling back under? You’ve made your grubby little point, probably best to drop it now. (Hopefully it will get censored when Mike reads it.)
59 & 63: is this really necessary?
I don’t why so many Tories think Boris will just walk into the Mayor’s office and beat Ken without really trying. Boris has only got a few months to convince Londoners that he is a serious, smart individuals with the right policies and right motivations. That is an unbelievably tall order.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
65
If Ken Livingstone had procured an abortion for his mistress, bet you wouldn’t be taking an anti-me view if I’d mentioned it: what’s up, can’t handle the truth? Or calling for me to be banned.
Why should I be banned? It’s in the public domain, Boris has never denied it! His adulterous behaviour is well known, whats the problem?
11- Nick Palmer- from memory I think you bet £10,000 to a charity of my choice (after giving me the cheque of course) that Labour would poll over 50% in ICM before the end of the year.
No, no- you took up two £10 wagers with Marquee Mark, and myself that Labour would not poll under 34% with ICM. You will donate your winnings to a cat rescue, Marquee to a doggy one, and me to a local cat rescue, so animals win all round.
59- 63 - 65- Anyway I thought catholics traditionnally voted Labour in the UK?
“Are you saying that Boris Johnson did not force Petronella Wyatt, (something he has never denied) to have an abortion, yes or no”.
I thought that was not true.
Livingstone won’t win 45% in the first round, and Boris won’t win 39%. Realistically, 36% or so is the best either can hope for.
68 - Tories may not like Boris’ rather sordid past (and present?) but I have to say Coldstone’s point is only too true. If Ken had done this you would be saying that he does not have the moral authority to lead London, that he is a despicable adulterer who cannot be trusted etc etc.
68 - I have no intention of voting for Boris, I just have no taste for your style of posting this morning. I haven’t asked for you to be banned either. You’ve made your point, I’ve registered my distaste. How about we both drop it and stop clogging the thread with such unseemliness.
72 - How sad that you decided to jump into the cess pit.
71
If anyone can point me to a statement from Boris Johnson, in which he actually denies, that he procured an abortion for Petronella Wyatt, please do so, and I will happily withdraw, my previous stements.
BJ is certainly in danger of throwing away a good chance to win the Mayoralty. I think there are three things he could do that would certainly improve his chances:
1) The most important thing, above all, is to boost his reputation as a serious politican who takes the task of administering London seriously. The best way to do this is through a programme of solid speeches (and articles in the Standard and appropriate national press outlets) setting out a sober, sensible, conservative critique of Livingstone’s time in office and alternative policies that can provide an antidote to this. This also involves working closely with the GLA team and leading Conservative figures in the London boroughs, like Simon Milton - co-ordinating lines of attack in the Assembly, policy discussion, and so forth.
2) Once his serious credentials have been established, BJ can afford to be as ridiculous and as crowd-pleasing as he likes in the immediate pre-campaign and campaign period: “Boris drives Routemaster through Putney High Street!” “Boris takes dip in Hampstead ponds!” “Boris drives coach-and-four in Rotten Row!”. The effect will be to get the momentum going at the right time, and prevent Livingstone dismissing the whole exercise as simple buffoonery.
3) BJ must remember - which he hasn’t during the Sir Ian Blair crisis - that he must take anything of political importance which happens in London almost as seriously as if he were Mayor already: which means, at the least, a press release, and preferably a bite for the local media.
Wasn’t this thread supposed to be about politics?
I am not “jumping in the cesspit” Neil. I am merely suggesting that some people have double standards when having a pop at others. We all know about Boris’ past. A lot of the media treated it like, “Oh, naughty boy Boris, wink wink.” Can you imagine what the Evening Standard or the Daily Mail/Express would have done to Ken in a similar position?
74 I thought it was discussed in a biography that came out about him recently.
75 I agree.
Of course, BJ’s own private view might be that he doesn’t, fundamentally, want to win and lose his chance of advancing further in the event of a Conservative government, in which case he’ll only want to do well enough in the actual campaign to earn positive reviews and boost his own profile.
68- coldstone- you are one of the most sensible and insightful posters here, and your posts have never had any typos, grammars, spellings which consistently surprises me.
But Boris’s private sexual habits should not be anyone’s business. Yes his links with dodgy arms dealers may be relevant but not who he is or has bonked.
There is a serious point here, Catholic Conservatives, make a big issue about abortion, many Conservative politicians, jump on the pro-life bandwaggon, doesn’t stop them arranging little ops for their, ‘bits on the side’
Cecil Parkinson opposed abortion, didn’t stop him trying to force Sara Keyes to have one!
78
Never seen an actual denial, have you?
81: I am not aware of any pressure from Catholic Conservatives for the Party to adopt a pro life position.
A very good article by Polly on the LD dilemma:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2211954,00.html
In particular she has given a very good case for Chris Huhne to be the next leader.
80
My first, ‘real job’ was in, what you might refer to as, ‘intelligence’ you had to listen and type fast.
In that job, your personal behaviour was constantly monitored: drinking, friends and in particular sexual behaviour, it was very irksome.
My boss, whose favourite expression was, ‘If I so much as smell one of you looking in the wrong direction, it’ll be Number One Court at the Old Baily for you, and certain 20 stretch.
On sexual behaviour he had one rule, ‘The man who can betray his wife, can betray anyone’
80 - Absolutely. On an identical level with ColinW I’d say.
81
Politician behaves hypocritically shock!!
84
so you worked for some uptight control freak sociopath, so what?
20 Jonathan: “The problem with Ken is that he is 100% comitted to the job, has been quite bold in his actions and does seem to have a grip on some tricky problems. A 3rd term looks like a good idea.”
Err…Jonathan, you don’t live in London, do you?
As for Ken being committed. Yes, he should be. Helped by some gentlemen in white coats.
84 Ken isn’t exactly clean on issues of dalliance nor misbehaviour in other ways.
[88] Dizzy, I look forward to your explanation of how Londoners elected him twice, the first time against all the Party machines.
22 - “Best Tory outcome for the Mayoral election is a clear Boris lead on first preferences, but LDs & others to back Ken on their second preferences,”
But it looks like Ken’s lead on 1st preferences is identical to his lead after 2nd preferences have been counted. I’m not sure he can rely on a huge swing from LDs, Greens etc. to overhaul a deficit if he’s behind on the first count.
84 Conservative posters on here will tolerate any behaviour however amoral or corrupt as long as it is committed by members of their own party .
I don’t think anyone needs to worry about Boris’ sexual habits or the Catholic vote or the Asian vote or anything else really. Quite simply Boris has as much chance of winning the mayoralty of London as Manchester City have of winning the European cup in three consecutive seasons with Nicholas Soames as guest goal keeper.
Tory Boy. If you are out there could you email Mike with our bets as I’ve forgotten the detail other than that mine gave Boris no chance at all and I think we had two £100 bets?
85- I genuinely miss ColinW, and Will l, and coming to think about it what has happened to Martin Day?
pbCOM wouldn’t be the same without its crackpots.
81 I’ve not read the biography in question. I have to say I find it unlikely in this day and age that a man could “force” a woman of indpendent means to have an abortion.
I have some sympathy for your former employer’s view about adulterers, but if we were to force them all out of public life, we wouldn’t be left with many people in positions of authority.
92: Mark, when other people are digging themselves holes it is better not to join in.
Good Morning!
I’m happy that many agree with what I said(4)
11-”very interesting, and not too long at all.”
Thanks Nick…
Roger- Cameron’s coaxing of Boris to be London mayor was another of his blunders, ranking in the Tony Lit catagory where judgement is concerned.
The Tories should have stuck with Norris for London.
92
Unfortunately, it happens to be a fact, that party activists of all parties turn a blind eye to misbehaviour of those in their own party.
On the question of sexual morality, if a relationship breaks down, then honesty followed by a divorce, is fine. Constant sexual misbehaviour (for want of a better term) is the symptom of a serious character defect.
Before any mentions Lloyd George, we live in a different era!
Sexual morality would seem a strange concept in the modern world
http://www.guardian.co.uk/crime/article/0,,2212201,00.html
95.”81 I’ve not read the biography in question. I have to say I find it unlikely in this day and age that a man could “force” a woman of indpendent means to have an abortion.”
I have, and I suggest Coldstone reads it too! Although his comments today are not as abhorrent as a previous posting he made on this subject.
99-”Unfortunately, it happens to be a fact, that party activists of all parties turn a blind eye to misbehaviour of those in their own party”.
Coldstone, this comment appears straight from the Sean Fear school. Great, simple, clear, short analysis. I told you that you are one of pbCOM’s better posters.
Anyway, truth be told I have a bloody stinking, awful, humungus self inflicted hangover this morning. Not particularly relevant I know to polticalbetting, but they say a problem shared is a problem halved, so I am sharing this with you lot here.
102 Pity you didn’t share the alcohol with us last night , your hangover would not be so bad and we might have one too .
Wot no Mark Senior trumpeting a 9.7% swing to LD in a by election?
102 Drowning your sorrows again Tyson? Cheer up, Brown won’t be around forever
100 I can’t see the appeal of having a knife held to one’s throat while havings sex.
For heaven’s sake, being new to this site and enjoying enormously the cut and thrust between all sides of the last two weeks I am literally appalled and dissapointed with the flippancy with which someone has tried to use something as sensitive as abortion to score cheap points.
The fact this is coming from the so called “pro-choice, morally superior” Left perspective is even more disturbing, though not surprising. And you would have us believe that it is the Conservatives who are still the “nasty” party.
I would like to think I would feel the same if this had been raised by a Conservative supporter about someone in Nu-Labour.
Its low, without merit or justifcation and trying to suggest that its Ok because, hypothetically, a Tory supporter may have done the same thing if it was the other way round, is just pathetic.
Back to politics please. And I trust that no Conservatives will try and use the tragedy surrounding Quentin Davies daughter to score points either. Lets leave the nasty gutter sniping to the Brown supporters.
106- hmmm, now let me think about it. Quite agree, even when reading that story with a full blown whopping hangover.
103-Mark Senior- very witty.
Tyson. I’m not sure that Boris’trouncing will reflect as badly on DC as Tony Lit’s did. He isn’t going to be called ‘David Cameron’s Boris Johnson’ which really did him most damage in Southall.
Nonetheless it’s that sort of mindset which I’m sure is making Saatchis creatives pretty comfortable that they will have material for the next election beyond their wildest dreams. You’d have to have the arrogance and stupidity of a Saddam Hussein to describe the Tory Party as “David Cameron’s Conservatives”!
Liberal Democrats have outstanding morals. However we then get into that councillor from Stockport, or the one from Bristol, or Rinka. Lets not be pompous. I have missed Mark Senior’s comments on last night’s by election. Real votes etc, etc, what number were they?
If Ken Livingstone does win big in May, it will have no bearing on either Cameron, Brown or Labour. People know and understand that Ken Livingstone is effectively a one man/party show, that Labour can’t stand him, that he was once expelled from Labour and that he was only brought back into the Labour fold because Labour, as oppotunistic as ever, knew he was a winner. Labour/Brown will get no credit at all if Livingstone wins, though they will trying a claim plenty, I’m sure.
I did wonder what business Quentin had in Cambodia.
Perhaps Boris has already recognised that the majority of Londoners are not really interested in politics especially in the run-up to Christmas.
Provided he hits the ground running in early January, after the hangovers have worn off, then there is no reason why he should not win the Mayoralty
This is a little old, and someone already posted, but not in this thread:
“I’m not sure the party can afford an Old Etonian, Old Bullingdonian loser.”
(Ben Brogan)
I think paddick is being massively underestimated. He has a serious career behind him outside of politics and as Mike said Ken has been successful by not being a Party brand. It’s an individual personality contest and those on the left tired of Livingstone are IMO more likely to plump for Paddick than Boris.
As Frank Luntz always says, the most common answer in British focus groups is ‘none of the above’. The 2 main candidates may get the most publicity, but a tired electorate may now be prepared to look elsewhere.
90 Innocent Abroad. Since you asked so politely, I’ll make a stab at explaining. Please don’t take any anger that comes out of this rant as directed at you (a poster that I respect), but at Ken.
Yes, London elected him twice.
The first time was as an Independent, remember, against all the Party machines. He kept his nose relatively clean in the first term and the Big Idea was the congestion charge, which he promised would be kept to the central zone, and would stay at £5 per day for years-and-years.
Having rejoined Labour (and against the Party’s own rules, it must be stressed), he stood again. The majority of Londoners still rejected him, but he got back in again because of that wonderful thing that the LibDems champion so much - PR! Or to be more specific the second preferences of Liberals who still hated the Tories so much that they were prepared to vote for Red Ken rather than let them in.
Of course in the second term, we have seen Ken ride roughshod over opposition to extending the congestion zone (i.e. simply ignoring the findings of consultations and experts) and reneging on his promise to keep the daily charge at £5 - increasing it by 60% to £8 in one go.
Even out local council (in periods of both Labour and Tory control) has felt it necessary to point out just how much of our annual huge increase in council charge is going to finance this lunatic mayor and his unnecessary entourage.
And of course Ken’s latest outrage, is his backing for the “PC PC” Blair!
BJ4BW. Boris Johnson for Bolton Wanderers?
98. Norris had two gos and was rejected by the electorate both times.
His numerous directorships - in particular Jarvis - made him spectacularly unsuitable to stand for a job where transport is probably the No.1 issue.
I think Boris will do well and surprise a lot of people on here.
Roger the David Cameron’s conservatives strategy bore all the hallmarks of Brown’s bottled election. Both Cameron and Brown listened to their “too clever by half” acolytes, and anyone with any experience at all in life, politics, anything would have told them bad idea at the start.
That Ealing by election should have fatally wounded Cameron leaving him to face a painfully slow, and long demise. But heh along came Gordon.
I never remember Blair putting a single foot wrong in opposition, not one mistake, not even a little one.
Oops. Post 115 was supposed to be under my new name.
Anyway just checked the Paddick price, 14/1. Is there anyone here who thinks boris is better value at 6/4? Or even Ken at 1/2?
110 Didn’t really think last night’s one byelection had much worthy of comment in the result but if you want to talk about real votes , in 2005 the Conservatives got 1,750 of them , yesterday only 877 were enthusiastic enough about Cameron’s Conservatives do go out and vote .
I agree we should not be pompous re morals so we will not discuss the Welwyn/Hatfield Conservative councillor who has resigned because of allegations of child p**n and the local Conservatives have been frustrated in hoping to avoid a byelection till next May by the BNP .
Which part of London do you live in Disraeli?
121 Mark Senior.”I agree we should not be pompous re morals …”
Well said! I agree. Before we start throwing stones at each other lets remember that all the parties have ‘form’ as regards scandal (moral, financial or otherwise)
Check out this link, to see what I mean.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_scandals_in_the_United_Kingdom
Depressing.
‘coldstone- you are one of the most sensible and insightful posters here’
Hahahaha best joke of the day.
122 Roger. The Best Part. (Every Londoner says that!).
I am in the Borough of Barnet, just north of the A406 Car Park. aka the North Circular Road.
101
So save me the trouble, tell me what it says on the matter in hand, is there an actual denial?
When someone, of any party, asks us to endorse them, with the honour of our vote, once they have been elected, it is incumbent upon them to behave in a particular manner.
I do not suscribe in anyway that they have a ‘private life’ they do not, ‘they are now in public life’ Its is their responsibility, I would say duty, to behave themselves, morally both financially and sexually.
As I stated before, there are occasions when realationships break down, honesty followed by divorce, is to me acceptable and sadly sometimes necessary.
On abortion, I am not opposed, its a sad fact of life, but its better than the alternative. Hypocrisy I am opposed too, sad ChrisD you are not.
I do not care who it is Prescott, Johnson who ever, what is wrong is wrong, it is no more or less wrong, because it happens to be a wrong done by a member of the same party as yourself.
I believe Boris Johnson has fallen below the standard acceptable to someone in public life, I also believed the same of Prescott, I unlike yourself do not discriminate. ChrisD you obviously believe the same as test, ‘Always say good of a fellow Conservative’
ChrisD let me give you a tip, I never challenge the views of someone unless they make what I would consider an unfair point. Stewart Jackson MP referred to Ken Livingston as, ‘nasty’ I don’t
know Mr Livingstone, so I can’t comment on that. However, I couldn’t let it go by without pointing out that Boris has the odd problem, on the nasty front.
Well done Coldstone for resisting almost singlehandedly the pious tosh of the Tory posters on here. As you rightly pointed out, were it Ken, they would be apoplectic in their self righteousness.
You on the otherhand are rightly querying the morality of the supporters rather than the man himself. They protest too much because, frankly, they know you are right.
Is it wise to call Boris BJ?……..
121 Mark Senior reverts to LD Focus Team type, smear and mislead about opponents.
Should people retaliate with a StraightChoiceMarkOatenGlasstopJockAlchieSmear? No, why sink to that level when the LDs have had a higher ratio of scandal makers than other parties? This site is supposed to be about the betting chances of events.
Yesterday in one isolated by election the Conservative vote increased 14%. I do not think that indicates much, it is just a by election. If however it was an LD win, Mark Senior would be on here saying it meant a LD trasformation etc etc.
O/T. Despite clearly winning the debate last night, Chris Huhne’s price does not seem to have shifted in the LD race. Don’t tell me another Party is going to choose the wrong leader. Could it be David Cameron will turn out to be a lucky politician?
[116] If I read your post correctly, you reckon that Ken did enough right in his first term to deserve a second. Which is what I thought, too.
One error of fact in your post - Ken didn’t get re-elected on Lib Dem transfers: he would have been re-elected (by 18,000 votes) even if he hadn’t picked up a single “second preference” vote. I agree that the congestion charge extension will hit him in those boroughs which it affects, if we make the assumption that there’s a positive correlation between car ownership and propensity to vote (I expect there is). Boris is still starting 160,000 votes behind, though - that’s a big ask for the (outer London) Tories in GOTV terms.
And it may even be more than that. There is also the implosion of UKIP in London (or whatever their councillors on the GLA call themselves these days) - can’t see them getting back, while, alas, the BNP are a shoo-in for one if not two list seats. This won’t help Boris, as I would expect a fair few UKIPpers to stay home (so no second preference for him from them) while BNP voters will probably split evenly, to the extent they bother at all.
This ought to be a winnable election for the Tories - Simon Milton would have been a far better candidate, good track record running Westminster City, presumably he had his own reasons for not putting his hat in the ring.
Having just written that Coldstone, you have just come out with some pious tosh yourself at 126
The best insults come from people in the same family.
“MP Bob Marshall-Andrews describes (David) Miliband as “this pillock on his gap year”.”
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
33. Is this the same Matthew Norman:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2006/jul/05/theindependent.iraqandthemedia
Personally I don’t care who their s******g - just so long as its legal and they get the buses to run properly and make a proper fist of the Olympics (to name just two serious administrative issues).
The original point made by Coldstone, before he started taking himself too seriously, was would Tory catholics vote for Boris? Its a fair question.
Tyson. There are certain actions that just turn people off. With Brown it was the smug look as his chancellor copied the Tory IHT proposal. It diminished him in a way that no ‘bottled’ election could.
Similarly with Cameron. ‘David Cameron’s Conservatives’ quite simply made people ‘heave’. All the arrogance that he’d kept under wraps came out in that one delightful slogan. That’s why I mentioned Saatchis. It’s one of their tasks to remind voters what exactly it is that they don’t like about the Tory leader……..
131. Quite. Don’t encourage the apoplectic old duffer.
O/T
“Howard’s end nears”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/357396/howards-end-nears.thtml
126.”101
So save me the trouble, tell me what it says on the matter in hand, is there an actual denial?”
I have not been hypocritical because I not put forward an opinion on this issue. I just found your comments on this subject today and previously ill informed and offensive, end of. Having read the biography that Sean mentioned, I suggest that you do the same before spouting off on the subject again.
130 I’d have thought the implosion of UKIP would be of benefit to the Conservatives.
In 2004, BNP voters did favour the Conservatives over Labour, although I think more gave their second preferences to UKIP than to either.
128 HF , I responded to pot/kettle in kind with a statement re Welwyn/Hatfield that is factually true so no smear .
Re the Lincolnshire result , a good Conservative performance compared to 2005 in swing terms but not compared to this May when the identical ward on North Kesteven DC voted Con 1451/1450/1320 Lab 491 a 75% vote share compared to 61% yesterday .
131
Yeah! your right it is a bit, still when dealing with someone whose still got their eyes full of s**t over politics and politicians like ChrisD, reads biographies on BJ (whoops) and believes them! God! what ever next.
102 I have a bloody stinking, awful, humungus self inflicted hangover this morning
yeah, those self-inflicted ones are terrible. The one’s forced on you by others aren’t so bad
130 - There is talk on the left of a decoy list for the GLA to stop the BNP. Not sure if it’ll come to anything, though.
130 Innocent Abroad. “One error of fact in your post - Ken didn’t get re-elected on Lib Dem transfers: he would have been re-elected (by 18,000 votes) even if he hadn’t picked up a single “second preference” vote.”
I am happy to stand corrected. Thank You for pointing it out IA.
I had remembered that Ken didn’t get an outright majority on first ballot (I checked - only 35.7%, in fact). I should have said that Ken had a higher proportion of non Lab/Tory second preferences.
(20% to 16% as this table shows
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2004)
124. Wouldn’t it be a great thing for this site if those who choose to use a ‘temporary’ username to deliver an insult were exposed.
125. Disraeli. …..Then why are you complaining about the congestion charge? It’s miles away from you! I can tell you that in Soho it’s a Godsend. If you ever tried to get to Chelsea from Covent Garden/ Soho before the charge area was extended you could forget it. I don’t believe you’ll find anyone other than people who live in sticks (like Barnet!) who doesn’t like the charge. Noone uses a car to get into the charge area anyway unless they’re mad.
I don’t think Southall was a Conservative disaster at all - it stopped the Tory vote being squeezed, which was a strong possibility. The error was the understandable one of talking up victory too much; not an amazingly serious error in the long term.
143 - A decoy list, how would that work? Creating a front party to try and skim off votes or something?
As for using someone’s private life as a weapon in politics, anyone who indulges in that gets the utmost contempt from me. I don’t care, not at all, what anyone gets up to. Hypocrisy as regards policy occasionally but anything else is the spewage of a fetid mind and I hope that they get it back, with interest.
If you ever tried to get to Chelsea from Covent Garden/ Soho before the charge area was extended you could forget it.
Congestion levels in general are nearly back up to pre CCharge levels. On a personal level, and looking at the policy in its own merits, I don’t think the CCharge is bad - indeed, there’s a case for increasing it, although it’ll be both painful and a regressive financial impost. But it’s bound to irritate motorists, particularly if extended.
145. Roger. I’m not complaining about the Congestion Zone or Charge! Where have I said that?
I am complaining about Ken’s BROKEN PROMISES.
a) Not to extend the zone westwards. (Which he is doing against the advices of the supporters of the original zone)
b) Not to increase the charge from £5.
Now then Roger, can you confirm that you accept this clarification with good grace?
147 - Yes. If a front party stood as, say, a “stop the BNP” party on the list, and got, say, 0.7% of the vote, this might be just enough to push the BNP below the overall threshold and prevent them securing a seat.
148. I believe only about one in ten use their cars to get into the West End anyway and for those already there it’s got to be better with less cars so who are those complaining?
147 I don’t see how that would work. I imagine the BNP has considerable “brand recognition” amongst its supporters. Creating a list with a similar name could fall foul of the Electoral Commission.
I wonder though, if the Conservatives could win effective overall control of the Assembly by just running Conservatives for the constituencies, while reviving the old Municipal Progressive Party to run for the list seats.
132- funnily enough I was with someone last night who is closely connected to David Miliband through contacts. He says the guy is completely and utterly self obsessed and a prat to boot. So BMA is pretty much on the money.
Really why are nearly all our profile politcians such unlikeable people? Straw, Cable, Letwin are the notable exceptions.
150 BNP supporters would hardly vote for such a party. And the more that the non-BNP vote is split, the lower the threshold for them to win a second seat.