Why are older people giving up on Gordon?
November 18th, 2007
YouGov, like ICM, shows a big Labour deficit amongst the elderly
On Tuesday I came under attack when I observed that the latest ICM poll had showed a very sharp difference in Tory lead amongst the 65+ age group. True - there is always a danger when you focus on sub-sets, like I was doing, that the picture could be be distorted. But when the same trend is seen across a number of surveys you can be more confident about coming to a conclusion.
One of the great things about the Sunday Times is that when it commissions a poll then the detailed data is made available straight away. So after the news last night of the headline figures from the new poll I am able this morning to reproduce the table above and carry out the same analysis.
YouGov break down their categories differently from ICM and show figures for those aged 55+. As can be seen it is these people where the biggest CON-LAB gap exists. A month ago the Sunday Times YouGov survey had a 46% to 33% split amongst the older group - that is now 46% to 28%.
Back in September when Labour had an 11% overall YouGov margin the party enjoyed a two point lead with the older respondents.
Unlike the other firms YouGov makes no adjustment for likelihood to vote - but all the evidence is that the older you are the more likely it is that you will turnout.
Mike Smithson
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Two main reasons:
(1) Older people are more concerned about having safe pensions and feel Brown raided pension schemes.
(2) Older people want to provide for their children after they are gone, and the Conservatives IHT reduction is thus very popular among this age group.
If you add this to a general more-conservative-as-you-get-older effect and that the older generation are more suspicious of Europeans, that will make them lean Tory.
Take just one example of a disaffected ‘55+’ voter. Aged 58, in receipt of a government-service occupational pension. Pension increased from April 2008 by 3.9% (September 2007 inflation rate) - tax increased by 59.6%. Net increase 1.1%. Enough said.
Luscious reading, that poll:
“Now only 33% think he is doing well and 43% think he is doing badly, a net approval rating of -10 and a precipitous drop of 40 percentage points in a month. At the height of his honeymoon in the summer, his approval rating was +48.”
“One Labour MP said: “I’m not surprised the edifice is crumbling. New Labour built its reputation on house values and economic competence. Now people are bothered about their house prices and worried about money, it is bound to reflect on Labour and the PM. He’s been lucky for 10 years.”
Peter Kilfoyle, Labour MP for Liverpool Walton and a former minister, said: “Gordon is going through a bit of a rough patch, but he has got 18 months to two years to make his mark.
“Personally, I think it has got to be about delivery rather than policy initiatives. He has got to shape a reputation for delivery. It is one thing to be a chancellor and another to be a prime minister.”
Older people care more about trust and honesty maybe. The blatant lies over the EU treaty will not have gone down well.
I agree with the first two comments, and Kilfoyle has been talking common sense on all sorts of subjects for years.
The tax “hit” on the people Mirthios was talking about (Labour “core” voters, surely?) can be rectified, if the will is there, before the election. On the other hand, if house prices stagnate, the Tory proposal to lift the threshhold from £0.5m to £1m may become less salient. It will be interesting to see if the Tories still think it has “legs” in the coming months.
I take it with a pinch of` salt, because personal ratings are unreliable - I just pay attention to headline figures - but 40% drop in *one month* is surely unprecedented?
Retired people’s actual inflation rate probably in the 12 to 15% range and those coming up to retirement have seen their pensions trashed by Gordo who also found every excuse imaginable not to help the victims of Equitable Life.
For what it’s worth, I suspect that the collapse in support from Brown is due, not so much to specific policies, but because he simply does not look like a prime minister, and even less like a competent one.
Apart from the IHT issue, I suspect that the 55+ age range pay more attention to newspapers and the media including watching/listening to PMQs etc.
With Brown doing so badly in these media areas, is it not inevitable that his ratings and Labour’s should fall?
Yokel on the previous thread doubted that there would be trouble for Brown if the ratings dip to 29. Since GE05 the lowest they fell with Yougov was 31 and Brown has just hit his lowest so far with 35.
Also his personal ratings are likely to act as a drag on the overall rating and pull it down further. Xmas may be a welcome break for Labour.
Older people have got more experience to draw on as to what amounts to being “Prime Ministerial”. So they are ahead of the game in judging the man - but the rest of the population will catch up. Once Gordon starts to lose the support of those in their thirties, forties and fifties, then Labour’s vote will shrink to the twenties.
Labour have put all their eggs in the Brown basket; as a result, I can see Labour plumbing new lows in the council elections in 2008. That will still give the Party time to realise what a bad decision they have walked into - and to put caretaker Jack in place. So long as Straw can disassociate himself from Brown in the meantime, that is. Don’t take the six a.m. phone calls, Jack…
10 - I agree. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Labour’s figures drop further, and especially if they have a disaster in the locals (where many have argued it is impossible to have a disaster in). At current polling levels he is still OK.
I think that there were clearly enough doubts at the top about Gordon taking over that the conditions are there for a “coup” attempt if necessary. There were clear doubts (from those who had worked with him) about how good a PM he would be, but equally (despite all the talk) everyone knew that for the future stability of the Labour party there was no option but to let Gordon have a go. That option may not extend to having him fight a General Election.
Jack Straw is very well placed - has managed to get himself into what must be considered a “major” job (to the extent that he was able to usurp Jacqui Smith in leading the Queens Speech debate), even though it is not a job that is likely to create much political trouble for him. Wait for the whispering against him to start…
lol - Radio 4 are doing mock ups with well known “extremists” doing “before and after” interviews before they go into 10 Downing Street for breakfast. Just heard Bill Cash extolling the virtues of the European Union
Btw, from the previous thread:
“Tony, if you’re reading this, please come back”.
Posted by Gabble November 18th, 2007 at 12:46 am
The blokes driving even Labour’s blindest supporters to drink, insomnia and depression. Have a heart!
Talking of 6am phone calls, I had a senior colleague who was phoned first thing every morning by this boss with a request for him to to X, 10 mins later he used to get another call asking him to stop doing x and do y and so on and so forth, He never actually found out what was required until mid morning.
In the end he never did anything until mid morning until he found out what his boss really wanted… I can imagine instructions from the bunker are somewhat similar……
We also should acknowledge another good article from Mike. It finds real points of interest that the newspaper’s journalists miss.
10 Marquee Mark, Labour still have some way to fall to get to a point lower than Yougov May 07, but it looks likely from the trend.
Labour (Blair) had 31 and 32 in the April 07 period. In December 06 Labour’s Yougov ratings were 33 and 34. They then fell to 31 in the 24 Jan 07 poll.
The Conservatives/Cameron’s biggest Yougov lead on Blair was 8. This poll has a lead of 6.
About 100 Labour MPs feared losing their seats under Blair. They may soon be finding that their prospects are worse under Brown.
13 - Liked the story in today’s Sunday Times of Brownite exploding at Alan Johnson agreeing to do an interview with Today in advance of a big parliamentary announcement, only to have to subsequently apologise when it turned out it was Alan Johnston, BBC correspondent, and ’somebody’ had misheard
13 - I was once involved in a project for six weeks, where we never had a day off. Saturdays, Sundays, Bank Holidays, we worked straight through, usually until after midnight. The most ill-tempered deal I’ve been on. This was because the lawyer on the other side had to report back on progress made in negotiations every twelve hours.
The name of these micro-managers she was working for? Enron…
14 - Yep, the Labour MPs claiming that the party is relaxed about the deteriorating ratings must have short memories if they have forgotten already about the chaos that was enveloping them last year as the Brownite coup was launched and then aborted - prompted by deteriorating polls.
It has little to do with pensions and IHT these issues have been around for some time. It has more to do with the English/Scottish question.
Alex in Scotland has focused minds on free care for the elderly and free prescriptions by the year X(he is being helped by the Tories in both England and Scotland). So natrually the elderly in Endland turn to the most English party.
or move to Scotland!
Gordo and the art of conversation. Read the last sentance
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23421688-details/Bank+girl+steals+kiss+with+PM+-+and+costs+her+boss+%C2%A310%2C000/article.do
I defy anyone to read Simon Jenkins in the Sunday Times today, and not just stop and ask themselves, “what are we (as a country) doing?”
It is not unusual, (in fact its mandatory) for a government half way through its third term to be somewhat unpopular. In fact at about 35% Labour is not as unpopular as it could be, perhaps it needs to try harder.
As for elderly voters, well we do like to whinge don’t we, ‘Country is going to the dogs, not as good as in my day etc’
Bung ‘em a couple of bribes, WHA up to £300 for starters, comes in handy for buying the xmas pressies.
Although I’m one of those who believes, three terms is pushing it, and a fourth term is something a party should avoid at all costs, with over two years to go, DC shouldn’t go ordering the curtains just yet!
As for Simon Jenkins, the present government is doing what any shade of government would be doing in the present circumstances.
Still anyone lucky enough to get his hands on Gail Honeycutt (?) can’t be all bad!
Having done loads of canvassing I find older people to be generally more conservtive with a small c. They often care less about global warming, after all 2050 is an ambition for many not a likelihood. They do fear crime from the unruly teenager to the violent burglar. They will tend to be more interested about very parochial things like street lights not working. They do of course worry about pensions.
Ironically as a Lib Dem councillor I think they are my strongest supporters, probably because I am regularly about and see many of them at events like coffee mornings, or just whilst out and about - the personal contact does work. They have time to talk - younger people tend to be much busier and harder to reach.
I know these are gaeneralisations and there are older people who care passionately about global warming etc.
By the way I prefer ICM’s age grouping as it takes me out of the oldest category!
22 maybe not order the curtains, but DC might have to put in an FOI request to obtain the measurements…..
O/T Anyone else experiencing problems accessing the site and particularly the comments section?
13 and 16, these traits in Brown illustrate the worst traits in a Leader and are very destructive to an organisation that gets one of these throwbacks. In this instance the organisation is our Government.
What stupidity to undermine the people he chose for the 3 leading offices of state? The Home Secy was in trouble so Brown steals her chance of a day in the limelight looking authoritative on terrorism. Would John Reid as Home Secy have allowed that? One Glasgow hand shake would have seen off the PM.
Each of the 3 should make a stand, Brown is too weak to sack them although he is probably too arrogant to realise it. They should seize the moment. One paper reports that Milliband sent in his speech 10 days beforehand. Time for Milliband to impose deadlines for changes such as 2 days beforehand.
One sign of a failure to delegate is when the person sits on matters leaving it to the last minute. They are in reality dealing only with the most urgent matter so Milliband ’s speech only got looked at when it was almost too late.
22 - An incredibly complacent post IMO. BTW does “any shade of Government” include those in similar circumstances in other countries?
22 Agreed - its normal politics and Tories shouldn’t go overboard.
Not surprised about lead in 55+ age group but pleased that in the 35-55 group the Tories are getting back on terms. If you look back at 2006 Labour was well ahead in sub 55+ age groups even if there was a Tory lead. That remains Labour’s strength area but one at most threat from credit squeeze/higher mortgage payments.
On bribes - remember in 2005 Gordon offered a pensioners rebate on Council Tax to stymy Howard’s policy of pensioners only paying 50% rate? That turned out to be a one year only bribe - reminding pensioners of that would help check any Brown tactic.
56 Days detention without trial is macho anti-terrorism. There is no evidence to support it, and lots of evidence that it is an own goal.
The government have resisted post charge questioning and wire tap evidence, and even now are not committed to either, only to ’study’ if these changes are useful and how they could be implemented.
They are both much more effective in prosecuting terrorists whether they are held for 7, 28 or 56 days.
But you sound tough demanding longer detention periods. Or at least Brown thinks so.
He sounds like any trainee authoritarian to me.
I don’t take opinion polls too seriously but, having said that, I find it quite striking that as many as 33% of Labour voters think that David Cameron is doing well.
Whether many of them might actually consider voting Conservative is another matter, of course, but it’s got to be good news for Cameron that he’s impressing a third of Labour voters.
28 Ted, good point on that once off bribe on council tax. The pensioners suffered from April 06 with its removal and it adds to their disenchantment.
Brown has a reputation for many of these stunts and many of the 55+ may just have stopped trusting him.
BTW there have only been two 3rd term Governments since modern polling began. One won the subsequent election, one lost. Don’t know how you can draw any conclusions from that, with respect to what mid term polls mean.
It all seems to be falling apart for Brown very quickly but as our psychologically flawed PM comes under increasing pressure is he likely to do something foolish, or even reckless in a desperate attempt to regain his lost authority? Simon Jenkins in today’s ST seems to be suggesting that he’s “paranoid”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/simon_jenkins/article2891199.ece
Whwre’s it all going to end?
22: Coldstone,
It may be ‘mandatory’ for a third term government to be unpopular with the electorate but the elephant in the room you fail to mention is the speed with which this turn around has happened.
Do you really think this is all down to whinging OAP’s that can be bribed with a £300 bung? You said ‘WE’ are you seriously suggesting that that would be your response if it were a Tory government, or are you merely attempting to pour oil on a set of pretty dire results for Brown.
56 Diane Abbott, who is usually described as a Brownite, on the Andrew Neil show the other night stated that Brown’s attempt to increase the period of detention without trial is not based on any evidence whatsoever but is simply an attempt to embarrass the Tories and to make them look “soft on teror”.
So after playing politics with soldier’s lives (recent Iraq trip) this most cynical of PMs is now playing politics with terror.
Are there no depths to which the odious Brown will not sink?
[21] Jenkins always writes well, though he might also have said that security-mania is a dog-whistle for Islamophobes. And the commentator who said that the Tories in office would do the same with kn*bs on has a point too.
I was responding to post 29 not 56 of course
36 - I think there would be more resistance on the Tory backbenches. I don’t think hypotheticals (and they are hypotheticals) is anyway to justify what the Government is doing.
Frankly, this is mostly a bunch of westminster bubble nonsense. Old people don’t spend their time discussing these issues! Ask them about their gas bills, electricity bills, etc. Does anyone who contributes to this forum know that the price of bread has more than DOUBLED this year - pensioners do! And they don’t like being told there is very little inflation, when the things they buy are shooting up in price. The inflation index is under control because of the sinling price of Plasma TV’s, etc., items not high on the shopping lists of Labour pensioners, some of whom are now hoping the Tories might do better.
Scrap the first part of that post.
34
I can be bribed with a £300 bung, believe me!
As for the speed in which things turn around, with 24 hour news services and the impact of the media, politics is a ‘real roller coaster ride’
As for ‘dire’ you obviously weren’t around in ‘67 when devaluation took place, that was,’dire’ then again seem to remember ‘92 was ‘dire for the Conservatives.
As poll figures go, these aren’t good by anymeans, but compared to some I’ve seen, they arent bad either.
30. Stephen. If a pollster asked me if Cameron was ‘doing well’ obviously after the last two months the only serious answer would be ‘yes’. If on the other hand they had asked how I would feel about having him as a Prime minister I’d have to say it would be only marginally preferable to a hole in the head.
39 - Putting technological gadgets, and luxury items, on Inflation indices has always seemed dodgy. Too many variables that have nothing to do with the true value of money.
42 - Yep Roger, but you’re not too enamoured with Brown either. So it’s one or the other.
42 go for the hole in the head then!
I’m sorry but any PM who contemplates this is not fit to govern.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1811_fiona_phillips.shtml
And what’s worse, your dislike of Brown is based on reality, whereas your dislike of Cameron is based on… well not clear really. Other than tribal hatred of the Tory Party.
45 - I did wonder if Gordon was the hole in the head
The answer to teh headline question is pretty self evident.
Old people are facsists, have no progressive* tendencies, and because of their age are becoming senile and can’t see the genius of the government and its leader. And just for good measure they are all called Ashcroft*, who as we know is responsible single handedly for killing fair democratic process in this country.
I have no idea why they have the vote anyway.
*Progressive def: A meaningless term occasionally used by some as a way of making themselves feel morally superior.
*Ashcroft def: A figure in the late 20th and early 21st centruy claimed to be responsible for destroying democracy in the UK via his support for a particular political party.
46 - Oh my God!! Do you think that article has the potential to tip Roger over the edge?
46 just incredible, I had to read it twice, and check it wasn’t April 1st……….
3.
What is more worrying from No10’s point of view is how quickly he’s managed to take all the goodwill and reverse it rather than the headline figure.
42 Roger - “If a pollster asked me if Cameron was ‘doing well’ obviously after the last two months the only serious answer would be ‘yes’.”
And the reason why it’s the only serious answer is that it’s true. I think he’ll make a brilliant Prime Minister, though I do still have very real fears regarding two of his top table (Davis and Fox both frighten me).
51 - To be fair he eventually gave the job to Dawn Primarolo, so Fiona Phillips would probably have been a decent choice.
53 Why Davis out of interest. I can see why Fox who resembles an unreconstructed neocon and would surely be happier by far representing a US congressional seat in South Texas but Davis why exactly
46 Woody, thanks for highlighting that bizarre story.
“She volunteered to take a genetic test (for Alzheimer’s) live on television, which proved she had a high possibility of developing the disease.”
An unkind person might say that she was already exhibiting signs.
Good morning all , I believe the polls will trend over the next 6 months to the levels they were at the same period in the first half of this year . Will this lead to very bad local council results for Labour next May , probably not . Labour are defending seats last fought in 2004 which was a bad year for them anyway and there are relatively few seats being fought as many councils will have no elections .
A note re Cheshire councils . The current position is that because of the creation of the 2 new Unitary Councils covering Cheshire , there will be no elections for the District Councils that would normally be holding elections in 2008 . There may be elections for ” shadow councillors ” for all parts of Cheshire , the wards being the County Council wards with 3 ” shadow councillors ” being elected for each CC Ward . There is still an appeal to be held in a case brought by Congleton BC ( jointly with Shrewsbury re a Shropshire unitary )against the Secretary Of State’s decision to create the 2 new Unitaries .
I believe that 3 out of the 4 district councils in Wiltshire are also going to appeal against the new Wiltshire Unitary decision but no elections were being held in these councils next year in any case .
Paddick. Surprisingly impressive thus far. Assuming though May follows the formbook are there any viable London or elsewhere Constituency seats for the Lib Dems to run him in, he’d have a good profile and strong wind following the Mayoral contest
It’ll be interesting to see whether Brown starts looking more Prime Ministerial in the coming months. It’s clear to many that at the moment his new hat doesn’t fit and the knock on is that his government looks shaky. Nonetheless the underlying position is sound and it’s really a question of whether he can avoid the elephant traps that John Major couldn’t. I suspect he will because anyone who can run the treasury and in his own way the country for ten years certainly has the know-how.
41: Coldstone,
Actually I was around in 67 but far too young to follow politics or even Blue Peter for that matter.
And now I understand your reasoning, because something in the past was ‘in your opinion’ deemed worse, you can now breathe a sigh of relief and pretend this isn’t happening. Singular!
So for £300 quid you can be bought….spoken like a true socialist, well done Grumpy.
59 Major could for long enough to win one election, and if you take the smoke signals seriously that is all GB wants to contest as Leader but we all know power can be alluring enough to override early intentions
59 - I don’t think it’s a question of looking “Prime Ministerial”. A Prime Minister looking “Prime Ministerial” should be the most basic given, considering simply occupying the role should be enough (it is why polls on the “best Prime Minister” question usually go in the incumbent’s favour). If that was the least of Brown’s problems (highlighted in numerous recent articles posted on here, he’d be laughing).
59: Roger, enough with the spin, this isn’t the Summer anymore. We know what type of PM brown is, a weak, inept, bullying one who took a large lead and turned it into a large Tory one.
Roger. It’s getting worse by the day.
He cannot lead, cannot delegate, cannot communicate, cannot listen, cannot take good advice, cannot allow disagreement, cannot make timely decisions and cannot trust colleagues.
He cannot do the job.
62 by comparison, Jim Hacker made a better fist of it…
30 in America they take the so called intensity gap you point to very very seriously. The point at which your own supporters are less bothered about keeping you than your opponents are about keeping you out. This means in this Poll lower turnout among your opponents and diminished anti Tory tactical voting. So you’re right this is good news for Cameron
60
Actually £300 is a bit strong for me, I come cheaper. As for being a true socialist, well I’m not sure I know what that means.
Unlike most of those who are not, ‘keen’ on the Tories, I fully expect them at some time to return to government, for me personaly the sooner the better.
Sunday mornings under a Tory government, will be a real treat, the papers within a very short time, will be full of the usual goings on: three in a bed, some Tory minster caught with his hands down a tarts knickers or up a choirboys Yfronts. Who can forget Stephen Mulligan MP for Eastleigh, his body swinging gently from a beam in his kitchen, dressed in stocking and suspenders, with a piece of orange in his mouth: bliss!
Tory governments are so much more fun don’t you think?
55 Punter - “Why Davis out of interest. I can see why Fox who resembles an unreconstructed neocon and would surely be happier by far representing a US congressional seat in South Texas but Davis why exactly”
I wish I knew. There’s just something about him which sends a chill down my spine. I can’t decide what it is but it’s there.
The fact that his area of responsibility is the only major one that I’m out of step with the Conservative Party on might be a small factor too. I doubt that any Conservative could convince me on Home Affairs as I’m strongly pro-unlimited immigration and (largely) anti-prison except for the most serious offences.
So that makes me a bit of an oddity as a Conservative voter (as does my pro-Euro, pro-EU stance too) but no party can give anyone everything that they want. The rest of the Conservative Party policies more than make up for the ones I don’t like.
I don’t agree with you alex. Blair always looked on top of the job and his party and thus ‘Prime Ministerial’. His recent policies were a disaster which is why his polls were poor. I can’t think of many policies that Brown is introducing -other than this 56 day nonsense-that is unpopular. Certainly nothing fundamental has changed since he was ten points up in the polls.
65. Jim Hacker had a good political adviser. Brown has Balls and Milliband!!!
Older voters remember politicians pre-Thatcher whom Brown resembles….being like an unpleasant mix of Edward Heath with Harold Wilson. They were bad enough first time around. Younger voters only know Blair, and imagine that compared to him Brown is no worse. How wrong they are.
41 The unprecedented poll volatility of September/October does give evidence to your views but look at it another way - when the general public saw that an election was likely (after Labour conference when media was full of “Gordon will decide”) there was a firming of views. Minor parties polling was squeezed - UKIP disappeared in one. The Conservatives had a good election launch and polls turned faced with reality of an election and an opposition that for first time looked like it was up for it.
What the current anti-Gordon (Bunker Brown, dithering etc) shows IMHO is that he should have had a wider range of jobs. As Chancellor most decisions bear long examination and while there are occasional crises these are rare. It’s mostly about preparing for the PSR, PBR and Budget. A Chancellor’s job is also more about a core team, getting advice & ideas, having time for research; a Prime Minister has a lonelier job - it’s about confidence in your decision making, making decisions fast, trust in your cabinet. There are too many papers to be scanned, too little time for more than cursory scans, quick briefings, quick decisions and decisions that may be unpopular.
The 6.00 am calls, 7:00 am voice conference and 10:00 am meetings aren’t just indicative of a desire to micro-manage but take too much time. That’s the complaint from Whitehall - it doesn’t matter what the decision is, just make one. Gordon is still working as a Chancellor would, running a Department, it’s the wrong mindset.
If he wants to be more than a fag end PM he’ll have to learn that and learn it fast.
An economist who is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee “Professor David Blanchflower warned that the large numbers of migrants entering Britain have now snapped up most of the spare jobs.
In a memo he also warned that more and more British workers are being forced to take temporary jobs and short-term contracts because employers are cutting costs by axing the number of long-term employees.
It is cheaper to employ a series of migrants in short term jobs than to create longer term posts with additional costs such as pensions.”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/1811_migrants.shtml
Regarding the Lib Dem uplift is it now the case only one Poll shows the Tories taking the big hit and the rest the bulk coming from Labour. This is a highly interesting factor in the 80’s the Tories benefited winning them unlikely seats like Bridgend and in the 90’s Labour. Where will the wheel spin now
69 - I’m not disputing that it is Gordon Brown personally, and the way he is conducting his government (as opposed to unpopular policies) that are causing problems. Just disputing the idea that it is simply about looking “Prime Ministerial”. Looking Prime Ministerial is a threshold quality for a Governing leader to to earn the support of the voters, but it is by no means sufficient. Even in 1997 John Major was far closer to Tony Blair in “best Prime Minister” polls than overall. Because one looks like a Prime Minister in many eyes simply by holding the office.
Slightly better than the last poll but the Conservatives would still be the largest party if the election was held today.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/18/filtered-polling-data-hung-parliament-4/
76 - Better than what last poll? This poll is worse for Labour since the last YouGov.
67 - Coldstone
The untimely death of any person - and the grief of their family and friends - whether in the public eye or not - is hardly the subject of partisan humour I think, although you obviously think it’s fair game.
I think you are a despicable low life who should get off this site and hide your head in shame. You are an embarrassment to the Labour Party most of whose members would be horrified by your comments.
78: Stewart, let them show themselves up for what they are.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,2212981,00.html
67
First of all Stewart m’ dear I am not a member of the Labour Party, or of any party. I would consider myself sort of anti-Tory, the reason, its stuffed to the eyeballs with creeps like you.
As for Mr Mulligan, I must be honest on reading of his demise, I was reminded of Oscar Wilde’s comment on the, ‘Death of Little Nell’ he said, ‘Who could read it, with developing an irresistable desire, to burst out laughing’ My feelings on Mr Mulligan, and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
As for refering to me as a low life, you might be confusing me with some one,’Who gives a f**k’
78 - Didn’t see that. Despicable low life probably isn’t strong enough for that post.
re 76. Matthew - I’ve just looked at your site and am perplexed. How can your conclusion be that “Overall, this is better news for Labour”? You also use the term “this is better than the previous poll”
How come? The last YouGov poll had C41: L38: LD11. Now it has Labour down three points and the Lib Dems up two.
I think, though it is not clear from your writings, that you are making the fundamental mistake of comparing a survey from one pollsters with one from another. You simply cannot do that however much you would like to find a story that is good for Labour.
Each of the firms has a different approach and you can only compare like with like.
77. I’m comparing it with last week’s ICM poll.
It may be ‘mandatory’ for a third term government to be unpopular with the electorate but the elephant in the room you fail to mention is the speed with which this turn around has happened.
Yes: this is, of course, Brown’s fault by building up a strong positive image and then destroying it by himself. His, and Labour’s, ratings, were always bound to fall once Parliament returned and the government’s performance came under stronger scrutiny. But it’s not fatal, as yet.
76 What model is he using Baxter. Can’t see how 2008 is a value bet. Unless you believe Brown will soar ten points ahead, plus the media are still very seriously disgruntled over this November Brown knows if he let the speculation rip again there would be no going back this time as the media would then make it their mission to destroy him. Such a risk is not in his Character. 2009 at the earliest
I see the Tories are now 5% ahead on improving living standards, 12% ahead among over 55s.
Coldstone - you could at least do the late Stephen Milligan the common courtesy of getting his name right before attacking him.
How you can find any humour in his demise is beyond me though.
46. Unbelievable. Brown is capable of out-Blairing Blair.
Luckily Fiona Phillips doesn’t practise the ‘altruism’ that she preaches.
Stephen Miligan was, a talented, intelligent, if highly ambitious MP. Unfortunately, no-one will remember him in that fashion; but it is rather repulsive to glory in the details of his death. Sexual peccadilloes aren’t a political point.
81 - If you didn’t care, you wouldn’t have re-posted.
Following on from your vicious and unpleasant comments about Boris Johnson, you’re still an ignorant, callous pice of pond life nonetheless and Mike should ban you and your warped mind
83.
It’s a pragmatic decision rather than an ideological one. Most polling companies have surveys once a month. I can either choose between eliminating the differences between polls and looking at montly changes or accepting than I will miss the differences between methodologies but get a more up-to-date knowledge of polling trends. I’ve been doing this for quite a while, and I use the same methodology for the Iowa caucus, so it’s not a question of trying to ’spin’ the polls.
86 - He certainly can’t play the same game again: once he starts GE preparations, he has to go through with them or risk starting a death spiral if he goes off. He’d also be forced to go through with them much easier. While his interview with Marr appeared to put 2008 out of court, I suppose a late autumn 2008 election is not totally unlikely, if Brown has a stable lead - but it’s probably more unlikely than either 2009 or 2010.
Stephen Miligan was, a talented, intelligent, if highly ambitious MP. Unfortunately, no-one will remember him in that fashion; but it is rather repulsive to glory in the details of his death. Sexual peccadilloes aren’t a political point.
I’m sorry If I’ve upset anyone with my unfortunate comments this morning, (sob) I will of course now indulge in a spot of self-flaggelation, (I’d do that anyway).
What a load of hypocrites, if anyone out there didn’t find the circumstances of Milligan’s (sorry about the name) death amusing, they are liars! Of course we did, conjure it up as a mental image, its bloody hilarious.
The difference between young voters (18-30) and older (30+) is that older voters know things were better with the Conservatives.
Young people will remember the Consevatives bad press. They believe that leaving university with 20,000pounds of debt is normal… it is normal living with parents until 35 because pay is suppressed and housing is expensive… MRSA is normal… high immigration is normal…
Older people know that live under Labour is bad. They worry about their children… Incompetent and corrupt Politicians & Officials no longer resign when caught. They look around and see how usafe the streets are, how impotent the police have become. Older people also now fear retirement… retirement in a country where their history and values arent respected, in a community where they are considered as foreigners… with minimal pensions, hostile hospitals where OAPs and war heros are starved to death…
Older People know life with Conservative Goverments was better.
I feel sure that food price inflation, my hobby horse, has much to do with this as it affects millions of elderly, low income people directly and on an every day basis. Food prices have gone up more than 10%, yes 10%, over the past month or two and if you don’t believe it, just ask the person in your home who does the shopping.
When Brown was asked about this at PMQs on Wednesday, he started bumbling on about hardship suffered by sheep farmers, like he was on a different planet, it was pathetic!
92 - Maybe you should spend half an hour learning the differences between the methodologies. And a bit about statistical sampling come to think of it. Just because you’re being consistent doesn’t make it any less nonsensical.
95 - Another possible reason for an early poll is if Gordon starts getting worried that he’s going to be deposed and prefers to put his faith in the electorate over his party.
94 - Just because you have a warped mind and sense of humour, don’t tar the rest of us with the same brush. Idiot.
67
You really are a pathetic piece of pondslime Coldstone.
I am one of the over 55’s and I also took part in the You Gov poll. I agree with much of the comment above. As I am early retired I do have much more time to keep abreast of the political scene. GB should be concerned as when older people become disaffected with political parties this does not auger well for his future.
1. At the last budget, I was hit with a greater tax burden (one of those aged 60-65 covered in the small print) I am not wealthy and found this grossly unfair.
2. I dislike how the PM is seeking to make personal headlines and stealing the limelight from his Ministerial colleagues to make policy announcements. Everything appears to be undertaken to further his own reputation.
3. I do “feel” his anger when he is being challenged. This was apparent when the leader of the opposition was speaking after the Queen’s speech. I do not like this character trait and must assume that it permeates all government business.
4. I feel that the PM is a control freak and is seeking to dominate other government departments. I believe (perhaps wrongly) that he is backtracking on many reforms vis education, health, licencing laws, gambling etc.
5. It seems to me that the Cabinet consists of more boring individuals who are constrained by No 10. I acknowledge that many individuals may be intellectual but they are not good at getting their message across. Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander et al…
6. The PM is an excellent political strategist. However, this in my opinion dominates all activity and I am left feeling that undermining the opposition and looking to the next general election is what he is about. I would rather he concentrated on issues that matter now and have some sort of vision for the future. There is no point stating that he has been in post for six months and is finding his feet. He has been planning how he would do the job for years.
7. I listened to the interview by Lord West on the Today programme - eminently sensible man. I was horrified that he was forced into amending some of the comment he made. This reflects very badly on the PM. The PM must also take responsibility for stating that he changed the Foreign Secretary’s speech and for allowing the Home Secretary to be sidelined by Jack Straw and himself. Both men are experienced politicians and knew what they were doing.
It is rather patronising for some commentators to state that OAPs are interested in the price of bread, etc. Yes of course we are interested in prices - we are on a fixed income. Many of us are aware of the increase in wheat costs and view with alarm any rise in oil prices. The global economy does effect us! David Cameron has taken the initiative in many policy areas and has raised some pretty difficult issues such as rape and immigation. He has forced the government to act on issues such as inheritance tax. As a lifelong Labour supporter, I am dismayed at GBs leadership. The present poll is therefore not a surprise and yes this comment is from a lifelong labour party supporter!
100 Dont be surprised. The nature of Socialism is afterall, Envy, Inadequacy and Hate.
if anyone out there didn’t find the circumstances of Milligan’s (sorry about the name) death amusing, they are liars!
There may be an element of grotesque, black humour in the death (as, say, in Evelyn Waugb’s early novels) but we don’t all share the same sense of humour - and amusement of that sort partially depends on an appreciation of cruelty and a lack of fellow-feeling. At the very least, we can appreciate the tragedy it was for the man.
if anyone out there didn’t find the circumstances of Milligan’s (sorry about the name) death amusing, they are liars!
There may be an element of grotesque, black humour in the death (as, say, in Evelyn Waugb’s early novels) but we don’t all share the same sense of humour - and amusement of that sort partially depends on an appreciation of cruelty and a lack of fellow-feeling. At the very least, we can appreciate the tragedy it was for the man.
97 -
Well, actually I do know quite a lot about polling methodologies and sampling size. The pollsters did produce pretty similar results in 2005. Just because my methodology (this time) showed Labour in a (slightly) more favourable light doesn’t mean that it is biased.
87 Re post. Congratulations on your last two pieces excellent. One question how will the St Pancras development affect that seat
94. It was undeniably hilarious. It’s a shame the new generation of MPs seem to be puritan technocrats; we need more debauched libertines in the HoC.
Coldstone - jokes can often be made about the ways in which people die (hence the ‘Darwin Awards’) but you didn’t make a real joke so much as expressed joy at the fact that Stephen Milligan had died in such a way. I think this is distasteful.
105 - I didn’t say it was biased.
95.
Think the bolt is attached to your brain, what a sweeping generalistion.
95 Yes we older people can remember life under the Conservatives but not through blue tinted spectacles . Millions umemployed and going from day to day whether your company would still be trading next week . Real recessions real house price crashes not real interest rates well into double figures , remembered with fond memories - certainly not .
98: The usual voices off have been oddly quiet so far.
is if Gordon starts getting worried that he’s going to be deposed and prefers to put his faith in the electorate over his party.
I really don’t see this as possible in any way. There hasn’t been an unequivocal coup against a Labour leader since George Lansbury - and you can hardly say that Brown, for all his failings, is as contaminated as Wilson was between 1967 and 1970, when the rules for a PLP challenge were much easier. Blair’s endgame was only possible because Brown was in an unassaiable position. Brown, even now, has shored up Labour’s base - there’s no real alternative to him for any wing of the party, and, even if one emerged, it’d be too late in this Parliament for a struggle to be launched. Besides, a dethroned Brown would be no paper tiger - he’d probably have no compunction about bringing the party down with him. It simply makes no sense to imagine him being challenged before a GE.
Last Nov the Yougov poll was C 37 LAB 32 LD 16. Compared to that this poll has C +4, LAB +3 and LD -3.
The final Yougov poll prior to May07 elections only had one difference. The LDs were +2 to 18 compared to the Nov 06 figures.
If that same pattern applies next May we would see C 41 LAB 35 and LD 15. Prior to June 04 elections, in late May 04 the Yougov (Tgraph) ratings were C 34 LAB 33 LD 21.
Presumably the expected effect on councillor numbers would be to see large net gains from Lab to C, net gains from LD to LAB and large gains from LD to C?
94
‘What a load of hypocrites, if anyone out there didn’t find the circumstances of Milligan’s (sorry about the name) death amusing, they are liars! Of course we did, conjure it up as a mental image, its bloody hilarious.’
You really are a sick old scumbag.
104
Admit it, you tittered , we all did, for gawd’s sake, Tom Sharpe makes a living writing that sort of stuff.
I’ll give you Blue Harpies a tip, don’t over react, When Dave’s in, and the first, ’shit’ hits the fan, I’ll be here, it’ll be your turn to be on the recieving end of ’scathing’ this is small fry to what is coming up, believe me.
Envy, if you think I’m envious, you couldn’t be further from the truth. I have no reason to be envious of anyone!
‘Pondslime’ how original, I’m off to hang my head in shame!
101 Jane, thank you for your post. I look at family friends. Long Labour supporters, fiercely patriotic to the Queen, left confused and betrayed by what Labour has become and what Labour is doing to the country they love.
They are not to be confused with the oberservation at 102 & 94.
115
‘Sick old scumbag’ hmmm do you know me?
Sopel just knifed Huhne live on TV. Brutal
Clegg and Huhne kicking off on BBC1 now - much more fun than QT!
I think 113 only possible if Labour are way way behind at the end of 2008 beginning 2009 that GB decides to retire for health reasons rather than be battered, and given the way the system currently works against the Tories in seats for votes Brown will surely stay as any possible Tory majority barring total economic meltdown could surely not exceed fifty. So Brown to stay particularly as with Blair those careers hang on him will do their utmost to restrain him even if he felt like that
101. Nice post.
Re. point 3 - when was the last time Brown indicated he was remotely up for a good debate? Or a challenging interview? He just looms over the scene like a giant air balloon. I don’t miss Blair, but I do miss his relish.
Why is Brown doing so badly?
Is this a rhetorical question? Coz he is an anally retentive numpty, and, as I posted the other day, oddly but intensely dislikeable. To get away with the back-of-a-beermat policies that Labour are keen on - five hundred day detention, government barcodes on all new babies - you need immense political charm and a lot of political capital.
Blair had the charm, but he spent the capital in Iraq. Now we have Brown who has zero charm, a kind of anticharisma. And Brown is drawing his political capital from an empty account at Northern Rock.
Labour are doomed.
On the Stephen Milligan thing, I dont think I have ever defended Coldstone before, but he is right in this case. There was something surreally humorous about the way the MP died - even as it was tragic at the same time. This is possible. Indeed its got a name - tragicomedy.
Its pointless to deny that there was amusement value in what was, simultaneously, a wretchedly sad end. That is life.
Besides can we just stop trying to ban people who say things we dont like. Thats the Nick Palmer way of doing things. Shut Up Or Else We Will Ban You.
Rightwingers believe in freedom. Of speech in particular. We should rise above.
Incidentally the lack of apostrophes in this post is coz I am still in Egypt and I think inverted commas are banned under sharia, judging by my cybercafe keyboard.
Salaam aleikum.
120. The gloves are off!
I do not vote Tory. I do not vote Labour. I did not find the death of Stephen Milligan amusing.
111 Millions umemployed and going from day to day whether your company would still be trading next week . Real recessions real house price crashes not real interest rates well into double figures
Unemployment is higher but hidden.
More, Labour has borrowed bilions to fund 1million fake jobs. Look at the National debt. House prices are kept high with high immigration and easy lending.
It is easy to buy time but generally papering over cracks only conceals the problems.
High interest rates, house price crash.. Dont worry. Be patient. It is coming - and then some.
Can someone answer this question about ID Cards. When the Government are going to make signing up to ID cards a condition of applying for a new passport, how are Clegg etc going to exercise their right to refuse to hand over personal details? Are they going to cease travelling abroad?
coldstone, your bravado just shows you up for the childish wretch you are, but feel free to keep on digging.
BTW your attempt at sockpuppeting at 107 was pathetic.
Mr Smithson,
There are some postings here under the byword “Coldstone” which are so offensive that perhaps you might have a little privatre word with him.
Partisan banter is fun, political disagreements are the nature of democracy, but his postings have gone beyond the acceptable
127. They renewed their passports last year. That gives us nine or so years to bring down this legislation, which I think should be enough.
121 Are you seriously suggesting that the Tories, “barring total economic breakdown” can never again achieve a majority of over 50? Try looking back at what happened in 1979 - drawing a line across England from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, IIRC, Labour won just 6 seats south of such a line, outside Greater London.
95 - But this is very much the sort of complaint made against any government. The extent to which this is the common experience of everyone in this country is debatable. Even if these complaints were generally accepted, most of the trends that led to them were well established before 1997, and no alternative government is likely to moderate them - at least not without creating new lines of complaint.
104 - I am being honest when I say I didn’t find it amusing. I recognise that sort of humour, but I personally don’t share it. It’s not a political point - but a personal one.
What a fantastic confrontation on the Politics Show between Huhne and Clegg. This was one of the most enjoyable bits of political TV for a long time.
I thought that Clegg got too agitated too quickly and was talking far too fast. Huhne coped with the “Calamity Clegg” briefing document revelation quite well.
My guess is that it will just reinforce the existing views of both men’s supporters. It certainly did not enhance my view of Clegg.
I thought Huhne was way way OTT attacking the voting system saying the Govt lacked democratic legitimacy. Que this is not a dictatorship. AS for other democracies not copying us, well each system is the product of a Country’s history as each of the new European states were dictatorships for half a Century just a decade back its not surprising they reacted with systems deliberately stopping one Party rule. Since our last dictator was Cromwell or James II if you prefer each more than 300 years ago, and we invented habeas corpus and free speech we have therefore trusted systems. Huhne would do better to argue the positive case for PR as he sees it than make bizarre comparisons with States with very very diferent Histories from ours
131 sorry, breakdown should read meltdown.
123 - there is a clear difference between highlighting some comic aspects of deaths (although it is almost always done in a depersonalised way - see Darwin awards reference above, even, for example jokes about 9/11 or whatever) and what Coldstone has been posting today - which is highly and specifically personal. Even though you have often admitted to a somewhat warped mind, Sean, surely even you can not agree with post 67 and 94 if you read them properly, instead of making a general argument. Did you even pick up on the word “bliss!” in post 67, which hardly fits in with what you are talking about.
114 HF You are confusing opinion polls with real votes . In 2004 real vote shares in the Met districts ( a large % of the seats being fought next year in England )were Con 25.9% Lab 32.6% LibDem 25.5% , in 2007 in the same seats they were Con 26.9% Lab 34.6% LibDem 22.0% . The changes in voting % shares bear little relationship to the difference in opinion poll ratings in 2004/2007 and will not in 2008 either and the change in seat gains even less relationship as in the Mets the net changes in seats were Con + 4 ( 24 gains 20 losses ) Lab - 1 ( 36 gains 37 losses ) LibDem + 2 ( 28 gains 26 losses )
133 I think Clegg was surprised by Huhne’s more aggressive attacks on QT and was merely retaliating
131 Can they get over 50 again yes of course. But in one leap at the next election, the national circumstances would surely have to be very serious
131 - I think a majority of 40-50 is probably the most feasible jump in one GE - the Conservatives could well get in with a narrow majority which widens to a landslide at the next GE, if the Labour coalition fractures further or people gain greater confidence in Cameron. Even if Labour do as badly in the South as they did in 1979-87, the Conservatives have to make strong progress north of the Trent for a comfortable majority.
Oh God. I go away for a month and this site turns into po-faced-commentary.com
This may shock the more sensitive souls here but a lot of people found some humour in Milligans bizarre demise. Just the words stockings, orange, and kitchen table were enough to raise a laugh.
This doesnt mean you dont find his death tragic and sad at the same time. You do. It is possible to feel multiple emotions. Give over.
Nor is this a political thing. I revere Margaret Thatcher just this side of idolatry, but if she died because a huge inflatable blimp shaped like a coalminer crashlanded into her Dulwich home I would probably find some ironic humour in this situation, even as I mourned.
Chill out!
133. I missed the start but thought Clegg was much better on ID cards, dealing more directly and substantially with the lawmaker/lawbreaker issue. Huhne used it to make a point on PR which was a very political way of tackling the question. Although I liked Huhne’s body language in holding off Sopel (something I thought Clegg did well against Dimbleby on QT).
140 - Lady Thatcher doesn’t live in Dulwich; she left her house there (not terribly attractive new build) after a month. There is a suggestion that she hated being driven through Brixton or Camberwell on her way to Dulwich.
126 Even in the most depressed areas of Britain today , there is nothing like the unemployment there was under the last Conservative government and they too tried to hide and undercount the real totals of unemployement . As for you doomster forecasts of apocalypse 2008 for recession and a house price crash , my wagers are still available for you to put your money where you doommongering forecasts are .
101- every political leader is obsessed with winning more than anything else. It is just that Brown unlike his predecessor, and his adversary is very clumsy at this bit.
I cannot see now how Brown will secure a largest party status after the next election. Brown is just unlikeable. End of. The best Brown’s Labour can hope for us is a minority Tory government.