Tories take their biggest ever YouGov lead
November 22nd, 2007
New poll indicates an overall Cameron majority of 14
A new YouGov poll tonight for Channel 4 shows the extent of the damage that has been caused by the CD-rom affair and indicates an overall majority for David Cameron of 14. These are the shares compared with the last survey from the YouGov panel on Sunday: CON 41% (nc): LAB 32% (-3) LD 14% (+1)
The nine point Tory margin over Labour is the biggest that has ever been recorded by the pollster and would mean, if the Anthony Wells seat calculator is correct, a Commons made up of CON 332: LAB 264: LD 24: OTH 40 seats - an overall Tory majority of 14. Martin Baxter’s calculator, which operates in a different way, suggests a Tory majority of 24 seats.
YouGov’s methodology does not include a weighting for whether respondents are likely to vote and in the last year or so has tended to show Labour in a slightly better position than the pollsters that do. So it might be that we could see Labour below 30% in one of the other polls that we are likely to see in the next few days.
All this will impact on the Commons seats spread betting markets as well as with the more traditional bookies - see here.
Currently I have range of bets placed over the past three weeks with three spread firms averaging a Tory buy of £150 a seat at the 284 level. Having backed Labour on these markets until the final week in September this has been my most profitable period of political betting ever.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
This is jst the beginning. The picture will look far worse for Lanour in a couple of weeks, IMO. Expect them to slip below 30% by mid December.
repost
“govt trusted on economy falls from 61% to 28% - Times poll” (via Sky news)
…and congratulations to you Mike - buy a property in FL cheap with your winnings!
2. Does that poll have voting intentions?
Maximum respect to Mike who saw this coming. He’s been a bull on Cameron and a bear on Brown from the start.
Anyone who followed Mike’s advice and got on the seat spreads must now be in a state of semi-permanent orgasm.
4 I only know what I saw on sky and the econ numbers were all they mentioned. Am not at tv now, we should check Brogan. Lose economy, lose election.
This is joyous news. Every cloud…
Times poll is 41 35? That’s a fairly big shift isn’t it? 36 37 the last one i think
Sky give the slip on economy a 61-16 turnaround
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1293986,00.html
For the first time, in ten years, I sincerely believe that Labour are properly F***ED.
Too much has gone wrong in too short a time - an image of government incompetence and shambles has now, I think, entered the public mind.
It is akin to what happened to the Tories after Black Wednesday, only it has been stretched over a few weeks rather than a few hours. The effect, I think, has been the same. The trigger was the non-election, everything has fallen apart from that. Bizarre.
The crucial factor is that once you get this image of hapless ineptitude, it’s almost impossible to win back public confidence except over the very long term.
What makes it worse for Labour is that we are almost certain to face choppy economic waters for a year or two, hereafter. The Tories actually engineered a decent economic recovery after Black Wednesday, but that didn’t save them from electoral wipeout in 97.
If we enter a notable slowdown, how angry will people get? When unemployment edges up, what will people think about the 2m migrants Labour have let in? Without ever asking us if we wanted this? What price a Europe referendum to try and feed the tabloid predators? Brown may have to concede this - but then he screws his foreign policy.
Yikes.
I take the comments on 28 days dtention without trial yesterday and
tonight’s comments by former Defence Chiefs
as people whom Gordon has deeply offended in the past 10 years
taking their chances to kick him when he is down.
i.e. revenge.
And who will be next? There must be a looooonnnngggg list…
9. Sorry half that sentence vanished, economic preference for Brown / Darling over Cameron / Osborne now 16 down from 61.
The most worrying thing for Labour is that a housing price slump is on the cards.
Whilst negative equity may not be a problem with low interest rates - if you do not want to move - how is this going to make all those first time buyers of recent years? Not very Labour inclined is my guess.
For Labour, the shit is yet to hit the fan, I feel. Things can only get worse. When they back down on ID cards, they’ll suffer again.
8: As it was a snap poll I’m surprised Labour did so well in it.
SBS @ 13 re housing price slump. Bear in mind that a lot of people would welcome this.
Nor will backing down on ID cards lose Labour any votes. And in any case, Labour is far more likely just to kick them into the long grass, not because civil liberties are suddenly in vogue chez Brown, but because there will be better things to spend the money on.
13
To rub salt into the wounds the government has given the housing market an early Christmas present called HIPS.
13
I would argue if they don’t back down on ID cards, they could face civil disobedience. Anyone who trusts the Gov’t after this fiasco is nuts. The evidence is clear: security of data is NOT a prime consideration..
And if ID cards are introduced and people refuse them it would destroy the Gov’t. Cos it might lead to other disobedience like the French.
The Gov’t, however, is lead by a man who is stubborn.. but untlimately imo a realist.
So they will back down.. and spin it and not be believed.. but it will be better than continuing…
Either way , however, will be a disaster for G Brown.
Lots of Tory gloats already - but note another ‘no change’ in the Tory figure, and the details show a surge in the number of people who think neither party is much good (hence rpesumably the LD/others gains). The Times poll, if alex’s post above is correct, does show a Tory increase (+4) though a smaller Labour drop (-2) and a smaller lead (but may have been partly before the revelations on Tuesday).
See Anthony Wells for some snap analysis. I think his comment that we don’t know if the change will prove sustained or not if pretty accurate - my guess is that there will be some recovery and some lasting damage, leaving the Tories more moderately ahead.
16. It is sucidal implementing hips at this stage of the market, given the circumstances.
13 - the housing situation is a massive problem. The only reason it hasn’t “slumped” so far is because nobody is currently prepared to sell at a loss. There is only so long people with young families needing the space can wait though.
Any suggestions for what HIPS stands for….
I hear Gordon is on suicide watch in the No 10 Bunker.
Ed and Magda Balls are looking online for cyanide capsules.
Horrible Illogical Prescott Sh*te
18. Problem for Labour is they cannot really change leader again. An economic problem so early on has only one political victim addressed on the letter, that is one Gordon Brown. He cannot be shielded from the fallout due to his 10 years in the treasury. It is a bit like John Major and Black wednesday!
Still hopefully you will be made a life peer in a couple of years time!
18 Lasting damage will outweigh minor recovery IMHO. Whatever Labour MPs may say in public, from what I hear via the media what they are saying in private is unprintable.
Nick
“People are less certain of the Government’s competence - 56% said they were capable in September, that has fallen to 25% now.
Voters also think Labour is less honest and principled than before. 37% thought they were in September, only 20% did by Wednesday night.”
That’s from Populus, wildly your most favourable pollster
I like and respect you, as you know, but you really should look to life after the Commons, because you will absolutely definitely lose your seat in the GE.
ROFL, i glanced at the subheading and the thought the Tory lead was 14pts.. I nearly fell off my chair…..
25 they are all about to lose their seats and way of life, you would expect them to be angry
No 10 are digging ever deeper in the bunker. BBC News are reporting that Admiral Lord Boyce said whilst GB was Chancellor, he was the only senior cabinet minister not to attend briefings at the MOD. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7108354.stm Headline reads Brown ’shows contempt for forces’.
The economy is already slowing down, and I believe 2008 will be a lot worse compared to the last four months of 2007 for GB et al.
27 just wait a week or two
26. Test says to NickP: “I like and respect you, as you know, but you really should look to life after the Commons, because you will absolutely definitely lose your seat in the GE.”
I pity the people you don’t like or respect.
22. Oh, no. Don’t tell me they are going to harm their little ones - the Tufty club is so sweet.
I agree that a housing price slump may be welcomed by many. But it won’t win Labour votes to replace those that are being lost.
18: Nick,
Now night be the time to cut the spin, admit your party is in a mess, and work out a recovery plan. Perhaps you could start with working out a way to make it look like Brown and Darling didn’t mislead the House.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/Swingometer.rar
gives a central forecast is something like
C 324
L 262
LD 32
Nats 13
assuming some LD incumbency and a Nationalist rise.
So a Tory majority in single figures of about 3 seats (if SF abstain)
26. Wow, Nick, even Ms Test, who has a secret schoolgirl pash on you, has decided you are electoral toast.
That’s gotta hurt.
The trouble for Labour is that Brown lacks the ability to dance his way out of this. His reaction will be to blunder on, stubbornly, too insecure to admit he’s wrong, too pig-headed to take advice.
For me this all goes back to that crucial, crucial ten seconds of the press conference following the non election, when he told that stupid lie “the polls had no effect on my decision to call off the election”.
It was that moment when it all began to come apart at the seams. The media despised him for his mendacity, the rest of us marvelled at his cowardice. He could have just laughed like Blair and said “aw shucks, the polls looked bad, sorry guys, that’s politics”. We would have laughed or shurugged and moved on.
But he is too personally insecure to admit mistakes, too uptight to relax and laugh at himself, so he made everything worse by telling a terrible stupid juvenile fib. Then he was mauled by Cameron in the Commons, on this very point, and from now on everything that goes wrong is his fault cause he is seen as an inept and timorous liar.
Just ten seconds of a press conference. That’s all it took to cripple his prime ministership.
31 It was an observation of fact and not an insult, I have a long history on here with Nick and I am sure he knows I would never insult him. I am a Tory and support Anna Soubry for Broxtowe enthusiastically but I hope have never been personally rude to Nick. Nor do I expect him to reply because he will (understandably) not post when it’s damaging to Labour but he also won’t lie. But he will read it and I mean it quite sincerely you would hope Labour Mps in marginals are taking steps to protect their careers because the next election will see many of them wiped out. Broxtowe will not survive polls like these and Anna S’s campaign
Re: Yougov
What are the details for Lib-Dem leadership????
34. I think the emails pretty much put the government in the clear.
This was an internal cock-up within the HMRC and Paul Gray has resigned.
18. Nick P. Clutch at as many straws as you like because that ain’t going to save your Government
I’m not a Labour supporter - but let’s be perfectly realistic here. The government is at its lowest ebb in over 10 years - probably Labour’s least popular position in 15 years, and all the Tories have to show is a potential majority of 14.
Not much to crow about. It’s been a rough week for Labour, but when the electorate actually has to decide between Darling (assuming he stays) and Osbourne, the latter STILL doesn’t have a hope.
38.
14%
re 31. Nick is completely safe in Broxtowe. He’ll have kits of charity bets for the local Cats Protection League and nobody would want to to harm the little kittens.
39 rogue junior, cock-up, nothing to see hear, move along……
37. But the GE is 2.5 years away!
That’s a long time - look at all the ups and downs of the last 2.5 years.
It truly may be a winter of discontent, Apparently, according to a source, last week the National Grid was near to shutting off on 4 separate occasions. Time to invest in candle makers.
Lack of power is caused by a number of the nuclear reactors being out of service, some until March
The National Grid has a fancy name for this kind of event called a Nism - notification of inadequate system margin. Normally 9-10 of these might be issued in a year.
re 45 ….or two and a half months
42. Not the figures for the LibDems jsfl.
I’m talking about figures for the LibDem leadership asked in the same poll.
Huhne vs. Clegg
Anyone got an idea??
41.I’m not a Labour supporter
No of course your not.
As I’ve said before on here, the Tories didn’t just crash straight away in the polls on the 17th September 1992 after Black Wednesday, if you look at the polls it took until January 1993 for a cavenous 15 point + gap to open up. IIRC there was also all the coal mine closures, plenty of juicy ministerial private affairs which all added to the mood of a tired and incompetent government. So I’d expect things really to be bad for Labour by about February next year.
I still believe the Tory brand is still somewhat contaminated, and for this reason I think the ceiling of Tory support is about 43/44% in any poll - anything over this and I couldn’t take it seriously in all honesty. My gut feeling is that however rough things get for Labour over the next 2 and a half years until an assumed May 2010 GE, that the Tories will be doing very well to poll above 39%, remembering that that would still be 6% up on their 2005 showing.
If I had to predict a February poll, I would say Con 43, Lab 29, Lib Dem 20 with a bounce for Clegg as the new leader, with most of it being picked up from disillusioned Labour voters who could never bring themselves to vote Tory. Anyone else care to have a stab at what the polls will look like next February?!
I think anyone who saw that smirk on GB’s face yesterday at PMQ’s would be deeply annoyed, it really irritated me for sure, not as though I could get more irritated with this cynical devious government!
On the previous thread I saw that my seat, Oxford W and Abingdon would go Tory, anyone with one iota of knowledge about the seat would know that is not going to happen based solely on the 2007 local election results!
John Major hung on and on amd on and there was no miracle recovery, the Tories were (and rightly) hammered. I doubt very much that New Labour can recover. The media are after New Labour in a big way IMHO , and they wont be able to stop bad news leaking out like they used to.
On these figures Huhne would be out by about 4,500 votes (notwithstanding incumbency.) Clegg would probably survive by about 2,000.
41. The 14 majority is due to the boundary disparities. Trying to spin that instead of the 9 points is rather disengenerous.
50. Ox W & A: Con gain by about 1,300.
Hardly surprising news and it’s worth reiterating the line Gordon and team will no doubt be coming out with before too long - there’s only one poll that really matters, and it’s unlikely to be before 2010 IMO.
That gives Labour two and a half years to sort out the mess they’re in. Can they do it? I rather think that depends on the media. Things like the lost disc episode happen. They shouldn’t do but they do. That was a particularly bad case of government incompetence, but examples could be found all the time if you’re in the mind to look. When the government is riding high, generally only the determinedly oppositionist papers are in the mood to look; when the government is taking a beating, more are happy to raise the problems, both in the media and - as seen by the service chiefs comments - by those who have been waiting for the right moment to push their own agenda against the government’s line. If the media goes fully into negative-mode, Brown’s governemnt won’t ever win an election.
As yet, I’m not sure that will happen. Too many people are probably still unsure about whether Cameron and the Conservatives offer a safe enough alternative to completely burn their bridges with Labour.
Labour’s big problem is that after more than ten years in office, and dramatic new course can be portrayed as either a U-turn or something they should have done years ago, and the lack of any new direction simply leaved the government reliant on its record of delivery and competence - a record that can be undermined by each new government blunder. Getting back on course will not be easy, but nor will it be impossible - the government hasn’t yet gone past the point of no return.
Sounds as if there’s no voting intention question in the Times poll.
54 - Rod, Tories lost their 3 seats in Abingdon at the 2007 locals in all out elections on the Vale of White Horse DC, even with the 2 central Oxford wards moving into Oxford East, and marginal Tory progress in other parts of the seat, no councillors on Oxford City Council, then how you can predict a Tory 1300 majority is beyond me! I’d like to see it, but there is just no way that Evan Harris is going to lose Oxwab at the next GE!
48. I realised on second reading - doesn’t seem to be anything yet about the Libdsem leadership that I can find…..
Ok, I’m confused.
On Betfair, why, on the “Next General Election - Party Leaders” market, is there £147 available to lay at 74/1 against “Brown/Cameron/Campbell” being in place at the next general election??
Campbell has gone, so surely there is absolutely NO chance of this happening, so the odds should be 1:1.
Is it free money for deep pockets? Or have I misread the market somehow??
Anybody know who drew the short straw and has to try and defend New Labour on Question Time tonight?
60 - Wendy Alexander in the listings, some good she will do. Think that Nicola Sturgeon is on too, it’s in Glasgow.
It doesn matter what Labour says now. They are known by everyone as Liars, Incompetents and Traitors.
Labour will feel the wrath of the Nation.
If I were a Labour MP, I would look to the next GE. If I were a Labour MP, I would side with the people.
10+years as a Labour MP, doing little except voting as told, leaves you unqualified for any job outside Parliament.
Side with the people Nick. Join us.
59 - Putting money in the bank is free money.
60
Is Wendy any relation to the Gordo’s boot boy with the same name?
57. I hear what you say - but special pleading for particular seats is all well and good. I am simply stating what one would expect if this poll was an actual GE exit poll. Without incumbency, we might expect the Tories to win by about 2,500. Throw in a swing pattern similar to the one Labour enjoyed in 1997 (reversed in the Tories favour), and we might expect a Tory majority closer to 3,000. Of course Evan Harris might well hold on, but it would be a pretty big triumph if he did - on these figures.
Nothing is set in stone - it’s just a snapshot, and the next election is s till years away. But focusing on a particular seat may give a better “feel” for how well the Tories are doing, and they are doing pretty well, but not yet, at least, convincingly into overall majority territory…
64. Wee Dougie’s sister. These Scots Labour ruling class types like to keep it in the family!
41 all the Tories have to show is a potential majority of 14.
Dont worry.
When Conservatives represent the Nation once more, they can remove Labour’s Gerrymandered electoral advantage.
64 - yep, brother and sister.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Alexander
67 - look at Wells analysis on this, main effect is not the boundaries as many Tories believe, but differential turnout, plua some albeit less contribution from tactical voting. I do wish some Tories would stop trotting this line out, polling analysts for years have been saying differential turnout, but some Conservatives still won’t have it!
There seem to have been quite a few You Gov polls in the last couple of days. Only one (a couple of hours ago) had a Lib Dem leadership question.
Going back a bit to Benedict:
No sorry, the DPA’s cover what you are allowed to do with data and the principles by which you should manage it. The fact that you can mismanage other peoples data and break the law for some perceived benefit is not a defence at law.
I wasn’t arguing that this was a legal defence; simply that ministers aren’t directly responsible, subjects to the caveats posed earlier but direct involvement in the process. The wider point is that the principles on which the current DPAs are based face challenges - both from governments who want to extend and vary their use of data, and from those sections of public opinion who want proper safeguards from data interference.
59. laying at 1/74 means that by putting up £74 you will win £1 back when the election takes place- a return of 1.35%. Given that the next general election is likely to be in at least 18 months time you would be likely to get a return of say 6% in the bank (much better). As you say the £1 you will win is free money and the person on the other side is throwing monney away (albit a very small amount) but you would be nonetheless be better off getting a much better and equally risk free return at the bank.
As a conservative with some experience of the Oxwab seat (I campaigned there in 2001 and went to uni at Oxford) I would be extremely surprised if the cons won this seat back even if they do well nationally. Demographically it appeared to be moving agianst them and Evan Harris was pretty popular in the seat.
Al Fresco at 62: I’m a Lying Incompetent Traitor and you want me to join you? rofl - you must be a bit desperate, old boy. Can’t you find any truthful competent patriots who want to be Tories?
MTF at 25: I’ve not heard any unprintable comments from colleagues - just a roll of the eyes and an acceptance that the next few polls will be lousy.
test - no offence taken at all: if the Conservatives are 9% ahead nationally on election day I agree they’ll win Broxtowe. But you were cautioning fellow-Conservatives against hubris the other day, and with respect perhaps you should reflect on your own advice? Consider: the poll was taken on the evening of two days of the worst media coverage for Labour for years. The result? Labour’s down 3, the Tories are unchanged, and Labour is still preferred on the economy, albeit by a narrower margin. It’s an excellent poll for the Tories, but you and others here are premature in declaring certain victory.
Has anybody looked at the lead on the Times website tonight?
“The Government’s decision to blame a junior official for the loss of 25 million child benefit records was unravelling tonight after e-mails showed senior managers were consulted on how the data should be sent.
Internal e-mails between HM Revenue and Customs officials also show that officials were worried about the cost of removing personal details from the database before it was sent to National Audit Office.
In a further embarrassment, it emerged that the NAO had raised fears over data security with the HMRC two weeks before the disks were sent. They wrote to HM Revenue and Customs on October 2 telling them to ensure that the CDs were delivered “as safely as possible due to their content.”
The Treasury insisted tonight that they had never suggested that one person was to blame, pointing out the Chancellor had referred to a failure by “individuals”. But the Conservatives say the e-mails cast doubt on Alistair Darling’s account of how the material was lost.”
(ouch)
74 fair enough, nor would I have done on the basis of this poll. It is the Populus poll for the Times that shows Labour rated on the economy has fallen from 61% to 16% that convinced me.
But of course you are absolutely right to point out that much can happen, as we have seen on this website, in politics. Tory activists like myself should fix in their minhds that Labour lead by 13% at all times and fight like hell accordingly.
So our local campaign on post office closures will be going full steam ahead!
All the news is good for the Tories, for Labour posters to pretend otherwise is pointless. Its inevitable that after 10 years or so, a government will fall out of favour: the same thing is happening in OZ. ‘Events dear boy events’
If only GB had read my posts, he wouldn’t be in this fix, an election was vital, as I said at the time, to go into the winter without one was sheer folly, and so it has proved.
GB’s refusal to have an election, has created turbulence, by that I mean a mess of disorder, a disorder that is unstable and highly dissipative, it is draining energy and creating drag.
The government must now attempt to return to a state of equilibrium.
The first mistake, is not to recognise the state that you are in , the second that it will go away, with out positive action.
The positive action? create a situation which draws attention away from the chaotic nature of the present situation, ‘The Gottdamerung Agenda’ Do something simply amazing, breathtaking, totally out of character.
Options: declare war, (not a good idea) decide what are the two running sores in British politics, the EU, the Union, referendums on both, in or out, for or against, throw in electoral reform as well, light the blue paper, stand well back.
74. and Labour is still preferred on the economy, albeit by a narrower margin
Obviously you haven’t considered the Times economic poll.
1. Confidence in Darling and Brown to run the economy has plummeted from 61% to 28%
2. Brown’s competence rating has gone down from 56% to 26%.
3. Brown’s rating for honesty and being principled has dropped from 37% to 20%
You really think?
74. Oh and I forget that was before the news that Darling was ‘economic with the truth’ yesterday came out. Or perhaps that is what you meant hmmmmm?
76
Test
Will you give me an absolute guarantee, that when the Tories come to power, not a single post office in the country will close.
bbc leads with Labours disgraceful treatment of the armed forces. its about time they copped for this.
Top of the Ten O’Clock news on BBC is the story of the five former heads of the British armed Forces.
Having been a Database Administrator for more years than I care to remember, I thought I would add my views to the e-mail exchange.
The first thing to note is that the emails date back to March and cover the preparatory work for subsequent full scale extracts from the Child Benefit System. They do not specifically relate to missing discs.
The second thing to note is the email exchange show that the Process Owner for Child Benefit was a copy recipient of an e-mail dated 13th March (blacked out but acknowledged in the exchange of letters), however the Assistant Auditor General (Caroline Mawhood) then goes on to say that the NAO have no evidence that the Process Owner for Child Benefit made a decision to release the data.
Of course she doesn’t - this is a matter for the Child Benefit Office, and Dave Hartnett (Acting Chairman) merely confirms that he understands the NAO have no evidence but remains silent as to what he knows.
The third thing to note is that the mails talk of a sample data which is attached to the e-mails.
This is where it may get interesting
The mail timestamped 13 March 2007 13:11 goes from the the Child Benefit Office in Washington to the NAO in London
Did this mail, with it’s attachment(s) go across a public network?
If so this was another breach.
75
And the government keep on digging away…………
77
Great post.
Add in: Give up ID cards.
But you are wasting your talents… there is a man’s pride at stake… he cannot ever admit he is wrong…
76. 12 months we’ve been at it with our campaign. Got great coverage.
80. Don’t think even Test has the power to make Tory party policy.
82 and now they are talking about the e mail interchanges….
‘Ten years after his sensational 1997 election victory over Tory Gerry Malone was confirmed by a landslide by-election, Mark Oaten has said he might quit politics before the next election if a too-good-to-refuse job offer comes along.’
Anybody know of a suitable job for Mark?
We can then have the excitement of a by-election.
BBC Leads with:
1. Brown treats armed forces with contempt
2. Darling was economic with truth. HMRC responsible for security breach and did not consider public’s privacy.
3. Labour nosedive in polls
4. Labour senior members furious that while the Broon is away that the Former Chiefs of staff attacked (seems the former chiefs of staff understand strategy better than the Broon cabal).
5. Meanwhile Brown and Co. suspend Pakistans membership of Commonwealth
Gordon is not going to be happy. Does anyone know where Des Browne is (it was Twiggs turn tonight?)
86 lol right!
Very bad news at 10 for Lab with implication Darling misled the house, comment on the Times plunge on the economy and the big YG lead
74
Nick, this is a watershed moment, its obvious, even someone like me who is probably more sympathetic to you than most posters on this site, realises that.
It is nonsense to pretend that the government can go on like this. As I said in my posts before GB’s failure to call a GE, better to lose, than die the death of a thousand cuts over the next two years.
90
Any chance of my guarantee?
83) the emails should/would have gone over the GSI , Government secure Internet or GCSx. Why the lost disc data didn’t go by the same route is a good question, though the link may be a bit slow.
The whole media establishment has turned against Labour…now the military too…it’s contempt, derision and scorn being poured on this hapless administration from all sides…in other words………………..
LABOUR MELTDOWN!!!!!
:) 
:) 
:) 
:)
88:
Maybe a plumber, then he can get paid for being covered in sh*t.
Who knows, Nick may even be right when he says that his colleagues in marginal seats are merely taking all this torrent of bad news in a highly philosophical way “rolling eyes” etc? The interesting MPs are those in the medium range seats though, those that won’t easily have taken the view that they had been on a lucky streak and had done well to last as long as they had. MPs who had been looking at the prospect of long careers (whether parliamentary or Governmental) going up in smoke. I can’t imagine they’re so keen to take things laying down.
88. Probably the best chance for the LDs to keep the seat is in a by-election. The Tories don’t do by-elections… remember?
93 - I can’t believe it’s really feasible to be sending databases with 25 million records electronically.
As a matter of interest, which is worse for Labour from now on? based on the current poll 41 32 14 Tories up 1% Labour static or Labour Down 1% Tories static (in terms of seats.) It there a tipping point where seats start to be lost by the shedload?
92 Only David Cameron can give you that, and I ain’t him
Cable slicing up Brown over qinetiq on the BBC…….lovely story.
BBC reporting Qinetiq scandal to break tomorrow. Brown to be blamed. Former Defence Minister Lord (Lewis) Moonie wields the knife…
97
Agree a by-election would suit the Lib Dems.
A good poll for the Tories? Now all we need in Mark Senior to point out that Cameron is on for a crushing by the surging LibDems and Matthew Partridge to say that this is a great position for Labour
100
If a Conservative government, orders the closing of your local PO will you fight it, even resign from the party in protest? Or will you stick to your credo, ‘Never say anything bad about a fellow Conservative’
101: Vince Cable, the best leader the Lib Dems will never have :/
98) 93 should have been from me (chrisd is my wife).We regularly send this amount of data (and much more) across links 100’s and sometimes 1000’s of miles apart. Most of this is internal but we also send equivalent amounts of data to other companies all over the world using secure internet connections, encrypted of course! This system should allow HMCR and NAO to communicate electronically http://www.govconnect.gov.uk/files/view/gc-information-sheets-october-2007/GCSx.pdf
102. It’s remarkable how long it has taken for this to come out. Labour has really had an amazing run of luck on stories like this, which is now coming to an abrupt halt.
The public and the press have been happy to close their eyes to incompetence, mismanagement and corruption across government for years…but all of a sudden things look very different.
99. They are equivalent (0.5% swing), apart from the flow to and from third parties. The former would be slightly better for the Tories, as it implies the LDs losing vote share, while the latter would be slightly less good as it implies the LDs gaining vote share. About 3 seats difference for the Tories between the two scenarios.
104
I am sure that Mark will be swift to remind us that these polls don’t take into account the very high death rates amongst Tory voters.
re 46 and the hospitals are already full because of all the ward closures necessary to run up a £1.8bn surplus. Remember that when your granny doesn’t get the treatment she requires.
jsfl at 78. Yes. In the same extremely recent poll that you’re celebrating, taken up to yesterday:
“A key factor in eroding the Conservatives’ poll lead in the 1992 was Black Wednesday, when the pound’s disastrous exit from the European exchange rate mechanism ruined the Tories’ reputation for economic competence.
The debacle at the HMRC office in Tyne and Wear has not yet done similar damage to Labour. It still enjoys a narrow lead over the Conservatives on the question of economic competence.
Asked how competent they are (or would be) at running the economy, 51 per cent gave Brown and Darling a “very competent” or “fairly competent” rating. Only 46 per cent gave David Cameron and his shadow chancellor George Osborne the same rating.
Labour still enjoys a narrow poll lead over the Tories on the question of economic competence. The poll was conducted by YouGov for Channel 4 News on 21-22 November. They surveyed 1600 adults.”
59. Various answers to this one, some of which have been covered already, but here goes:
Campbell has gone, but theoretically could come back so presumably Betfair wouldn’t exchange on the bets unless either the election is called or something as final as a death rules at least one candidate out. You’d therefore be locking up money for possibly two years or more at a gross return of about 1.3%, which as has been pointed out is well under a commercial return.
By the way, the odds I think you mean to be quoting are 1/0 (i.e. infinate - although they’re not quite, see above), rather than 1/1, which is evens.
The only way it might make sense to lay the bet is if you’re thinking of laying another option on the same market. I believe Betfair will let your exposure on both ride up to your account limit / balance as you won’t have to pay on both (only one will pay out). In that case, it you could tack on the Brown / Cameron / Campbell option at no extra cost and pick up the money for free.
re 67 there is gerrymandering. Wales has at least 8 seats more than it should for absolutely no good reason whatsoever, and at least 6 of these are Labour, and the Scottish MPs who now at least are parity with the English electorate are only part time as much of the business of the HoC doesn’t concern them at all
109 thanks
112. Keep on straw clutching Nick. You and your useless government are finished, and many people will be merrily toasting your eventual demise.
BBC News is grim for Brown - open warfare against him by the forces. He’s being painted as a coward basically and that he has blood on his hands through under funding.
I’ve never seen anything like this before. It’s one thing after another for the Government. I can’t quite believe what is unfolding.
re 72 so you (and by implication Betfair) are expecting Ming to make a return?
Why the pollsters waste their time with polls like this I can’t imagine. They might as well run one on the England football team this morning. Do you think England are 1. Great 2. Average 3. Rubbish? And if England had won 3-2?
I’m surprised SeanT bothers to re-pen that post about this REALLY being the end for Labour…..it must be at least the hundredth time he’s posted it.I don’t know what’ll happen to Labour’s fortunes in the future but I know that a poll taken today tells us absolutely nothing.
OT: A Labour county councillor has been found guilty of lying to get council tax benefit.
http://www.oxfordmail.net/mostpopular.var.1852137.mostviewed.councillor_guilty_of_benefit_fraud.php
re 59 Casino, even more confusing is the £77 still available for laying on a 2007 election, admittedly the best price is 439/1. But surely Betfair will payout on that after 7th December?
For the first time in many, many, years, a Conservative majority certainly looks possible. The great challenge for the party was to establish itself on or above 40% of the vote. Once that’s done, the party consolidates and extends its position simply by looking like winners. Momentum has been vital in this process. The government hasn’t been given any room to breathe, or any let-out clauses, by the Conservatives at any time since Blackpool.
For the first time in many, many, years, a Conservative majority certainly looks possible. The great challenge for the party was to establish itself on or above 40% of the vote. Once that’s done, the party consolidates and extends its position simply by looking like winners. Momentum has been vital in this process. The government hasn’t been given any room to breathe, or any let-out clauses, by the Conservatives at any time since Blackpool.
Sorry, ITV News…
Can Labour go below 25% by the end of the year????!
Gordon makes McLaren look good!!!
Labour = merging with LDs after next election!!!!!
120 - For some reason, councillors are particularly prone to benefit fraud, from almost every party. A councillor seems to be implicated in offences of that sort every other month.
Not good news on ITV or BBC2 for Brown. PAYE and Benefits systems to merge - problematic and cost driven. Hostile comments from 5 retired senior officers - Boyce, Guthrie, ‘Brown the only senior minister who did not come to the MOD’.
PS. I was encouraged by seeing those three buffers (who used to run the armed forces) in the House of Lords criticizing Brown personally for not giving them enough money. It reminded me what I dislike about the establishment in this country and I was left asking myself how these three could run a cake shop let alone the armed forces.
122. 123…indeed and all this BEFORE the real signs of economic pain come through. In early 2008, we could see polls like Con 45 Lab 25, with speculation about Labour dropping behind the Lib Dems into third.
Labour are set to be cast into the outer darkness for 10-15 years, with a clutch of cabinet ministers losing their seats while the public sit on their sofas joyously punching the air as each miserable individual falls into the political abyss…
Well done Mike. This can only get more profitable for you and the rest of the PB gang. This poll must have been taken before the latest two days of additional disastrous news for Brown, on top of all the recent bad news.
I know PfP, PtP and myself are all Labour sellers/Tory buyers. Probably Yokel too and others.
So who has been backing the other way and providing our profits? Whoever you are, thanks very much!
88 the fun starts with the fact that a Winchester by election would be on “old boundaries”. With the seat virtually split into two in the new boundaries, which of the two LD and two Conservative candidates are going to fight it?
re 112 Nick it doesn’t that’s complete spin. Lab and Con are equal on economic competence at the moment.
This is what the ordinary voter is reading tonight -
‘confidence in government collapses’
the momentum toward meltdown is now unstoppable
:) 
:) 
http://news.aol.co.uk/confidence-in-government-collapses/article/20071122144009990001
don’t forget to write to your GPs as well to let them know that you don’t want your medical records uploading to the national spine. You can download suitable letters at http://www.TheBigOptOut.org
133 - could labour be heading for 1931 (55 seats) or even 1896 (1 seat!)
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Labour are set to be cast into the outer darkness for 10-15 years, with a clutch of cabinet ministers losing their seats while the public sit on their sofas joyously punching the air as each miserable individual falls into the political abyss…
I wouldn’t go that far - I don’t think an unassailable Tory majority is at all likely, as opposed to an unbeatable but comfortable majority. Cameron might improve on a largest-party or narrow majority situation and end up with a landslide, but Labour could recover; it depends entirely on a range of circumstances beyond prediction at the moment. Instead of decade-or-more long shifts between one landslide and another, we could be entering a more evenly balanced period. This would be better for the system as a whole, if less satisfactory for supporters on both sides.
None of this is about the Tories it’s about Labour. The fact that they are still in the 30-35% bracket shows how many people don’t follow politics. I got a request to do a Yougov poll which was sent on the 21st so right in the middle of the storm (I ignored it because I have no great enthusiasm for any of them at the moment)
116 get lost jeff/scallywag you moron
112 not what the populus poll says on the economy
Gavin Esler on Newsnight just asked lightweight Derek Twigg if Gordon Brown is up to the job. Twigg looked as if he was going to start crying. Even Brownite stooge Kevin Maguire admitted last night that ministers are shell-shocked at the moment and “need a cuddle”.
This government are reeling from one self-inflicted crisis to another. From NRK to missing data, to illegal immigrants, to tonights atacks by senior military men. They almost look in danger of meltdown.
How long before thin-skinned, fragile, increasingly paranoid Brown cracks up?
Any juicy by-elections tonight?
136. Nick Palmer to lose his deposit
:) 
:) !!!!!
Tomorrows Guardian reveals a huge “black hole” in Northern Rock’s assets. Apparently their mortgage book is considerably more sub-prime than we thought.
Will the BofE ever see that £24billion again?
if scotland is the Labour heartland its not looking good if tonights QT is anything to go by.
is it me or should QT being providing subtitles tonight
141 - booooooooooo we like nick (mike, ban gloater lol)
GORDON and the rest of the #s to lose their deposits LOL
142. Well there’s a surprise. Don’t say it wasn’t hinted at on this site by the odd poster or two.
Has anyone thought what a remarkable coincidence it is that all these stories have come along at once. And isn’t it funny they all have a dimension that somehow conveniently points to Brown in some way . I am sure that some people here hate/loathe Brown, but even you must think he has by any standards had an unusually bad two weeks.
It is entirely possible that is just bad luck, but it equally possible that there is an orchestrated campaign designed to embarrass no 10. I wonder what/who promped those ex Army cheifs to kick off here and now for example.
147. Of course it is orchestrated - the government looks incredibly vulnerable and now is the time to really put the boot in from every side. This opportunity has been a long time coming and it’s not going to be missed…
Gordon must be tied in emotional knots right now, trying to catch up on the latest horrors being revealed back home - and wondering what his people are going to say in his absence. Not a good time to be away from the safety blanket of his London Bunker…
147. Juan. If you want to engage in conspiracy theories, has the identity of the 23-year-old male who lost the discs been revealed yet? And has anyone seen Ewan Blair (born 1984) recently?
So in terms of the Yougov polling gap, Brown is now doing worse than Blair did against Cameron.
Also at 32 Labour are just 1 point above the lowest point they reached with Blair Vs Cameron.
Labour have pushed out Blair and ended up worse off. Which is what the pre-Coronation polls said would happen!
147
That seems to be the government line tonight. Apparently a minister complained to him that there is a “conspiracy” against Brown.
I suspect it’s just a case of some of Brown’s many chickens coming home to roost, though it’s unsurprising that a paranoid fruitcake like him sees it as something more sinister. Apparently he even thinks that poor little overgrown geeky schoolboy David Miliband is potting to “destabilise” him.
I really am becoming increasingly concerned that we are stuck with a PM whose mental health seems to be deteriorating rapidly.
It’s not a conspiracy theory. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories. But anyone who’s been involved in politics for a while can see this an amazingly bad fortnight. Bad luck or campaign is a legitimate question.
152. Shades of ‘die letzen tage im Fuhrerbunker’ it seems…
Unusually, the complaints aren’t just “send us more money”.
Brown/Darling are in the frame for lying over HMRC.
Forces chiefs complained about discourtesy (Brown the only chancellor
not to come to MOD, Brown offers no thanks to forces in Queen’s Speech,
Brown makes Defence Secretary part-time).
Is not the usual story. As said on Newsnight, is personal.
Virtually eveyone in the QT audience negative about Brown/Labour…… in SCOTLAND
You would have thought that the poll watchers on here would have more balance. Nothing that has happened apart from the budget and the non election will count against Labour in the long run. This administrative failure in an office in Newcastle might be interesting for a few days but in the cool light of day will have no bearing whatsoever on Labour’s chances of winning an election.
Brown has to make sure he runs things competently and by January at the latest I’d expect the polls to be level pegging. Infact the chances of Cameron putting his foot in it-particularly with todays febrile press-probably means that at some point in the next couple of months Labour will overtake the Tories.
In the first of this evening’s byelection results in the marginal seat of Wellinborough, The Tories polled 66% of the vote to Labour’s 7%
The die is cast
112. With Populus, it looks like the Conservatives lead on the economy:
Q: Who do you trust more:
Brown/Darling - 16%
Cameron/Osborne - 34%
158 A tad weak… Labour are up 7% on last time (they didn’t contest this Tory safe seat before)
155
That’s right. They seem to find Brown every bit as odious as I do
157 You’re in cloud cuckoo land soft lad. You’re not Gordon in disguise are you?
157. Roger. As I read your post I was expecting to see that it was by a spoof poster. And then I saw it was you. Unbelievably erroneous!
SeanT was spot on up thread. It all turned to dust when Brown failed to come clean over the non-election. Not only did he betray the truth but he also exposed the flaw at the heart of his own character. An inability to see and admit when he is wrong.
O/T. Where is Andrea with all these strong female Scottish politicians on QT?
160
Today 7%, tomorrow the world!!
164 Well I’d take a 7% increase in Labour’s vote at the m