Can we believe the Guardian’s hustings poll?
November 23rd, 2007
Is Huhne really 20% ahead?
In the absence of any proper polling of Lib Dem party members anybody wanting to have a punt on the leadership election has almost no hard evidence on which to make their choice. The Guardian, however, reports on a survey it carried out on Wednesday night amongst 200 members it questioned at a hustings meeting in Cambridge.
The outcome was certainly encouraging for the former Guardian journalist and now party environment spokesman, Chris Huhne. This found 40% saying Huhne, 20% saying Clegg, and the balance being undecided or preferring not to say.
But Guardian hustings polls have a record of getting it terribly terribly wrong as we saw during the 2006 race.
But also carrying out the same exercise at the same meeting was the other paper that Chris Huhne used to work for - the Independent. It spoke to 100 people and its survey overwhelmingly pointed to a victory for Ming Campbell. The acting leader had 51 giving him their first preference with 31 to Simon Hughes and just 18 to Chris Huhne.
In no way could any of these surveys be described as a proper poll. The samples cannot be said to be representative and those prepared to turn out at a meeting on a cold November evening are more likely to be activists.
Being fair the Guardian is aware of the dangers and does note “Up to 300 members attended the event and of those who spoke to the Guardian, 85 backed Huhne, 42 backed Clegg and 83 did not express a preference. The figures need to be treated with caution: the east of England is a strong area for Huhne and some believe he boasts more support among activists - the sort of people who attend such debates - than armchair members, who form the majority of the 65,000-strong electorate.”
It’s understood that a proper members poll is being carried out by YouGov. We do not know whether this is a public poll or, indeed, if we will ever see the results.
On Betfair Clegg is at 0.39/1 with Huhne at 9/4.
Mike Smithson
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You really shouldn’t encourage her.
Of course he isnt…..
To be fair Mike, the Graun’s piece did not claim that Huhne was 20% ahead, merely that he is doing well with activists. But I think that their piece hit unwittingly on a small point that might be of relevance to the final outcome. That is that this time the support of MPs may be a hinderance, rather than a positive for Clegg’s team. In the Campbell election there was extreme pressure from the upper echelons of the party to vote for Campbell, despite some pretty ropey performances compared to either of his rivals. In the aftermath of the Kennedy debacle, many of the members seemed to content to fall in behind the establishment - a most unLibDem trait. And to many, there may be an inkling that following the ‘establishment figure’ got them nowhere last time, and maybe it is time to revert to type and go for the ‘outsider’.
As someone who was part of the Guardian sample at the 2006 meeting, this probably isn’t all that significant from a betting pov because it was badly wrong before.
But Huhne will enjoy the bragging rights over this (in fact you could almost suggest that doing a straw poll at the Cambridge hustings was designed to show Huhne ahead….) and it’s a useful bit of momentum as the ballot papers go out.
By the way Mike, will the new leader get a slot in the pb.c masthead? I can appreciate why the last one didn’t, but fresh start and all that?
5 Thanks tpfkar.
The result is moderately interesting.
Common sense suggests that as there’s little difference between the two candidates, you would expect a close result.
Re 6. The answer is yes. The plan is to include the new leader in the PBC masthead whether it be Clegg or Huhne.
The answer to Mike’s question is to ask a different question (given that he answers it towards the end of his piece with the caveats in the indented paragraph and the one before). That question is “to what extent can we believe the Guardian’s hustings poll? Because even if its somewhere near to the real picture in the country, there’s value in the Huhne price.
Unscientific pointers have been indicating that the contest would be closer than the odds suggest - anecdote from party members reported on blogs and in the media, the performance in the debates, Clegg’s failure to take any sort of hold on the race - but is this noise with or without meaning? And where does this sounding (I’m not calling it a ‘poll’) fit into the picture?
My guess, uninformed by anything other than the media, is that it’s probably very tight at the moment and if either candidate can land a big hit today or over the weekend, that could be decisive (weren’t the ballot papers scheduleed to go out about now?). After that, I wouldn’t like to call it whatever happens between the candidates, but Clegg’s odds still looks far too short to me and Huhne’s well too long.
Mike you said it hstings are not a representative sample.Those attending are activists and they tend to be the more radical end of the party.Nevertheless a 2:1 lead is impressive for Huhne and remember that they also have a higher propensity to vote.
I think that non activist mebers are more likley to go for Clegg as they get the media message that Clegg is the favourite.Non activists are more numerous but less likely to vote.
I will stick my neck- out a close result but Huhne will win!
Rogerh
I saw Clegg being interviewed on something the other day. He looked pathetic and reminded me of my opinion of David Cameron (i.e the worst Conservative Party leader since Edward Heath). I’ve already got to the stage of groaning automatically when he comes on the screen.
Plenty of room on the ballot paper to write in “Vince Cable X”.
Juat saying….
There’s definitely something going on with YouGov as part of a survey I did last night asked me who I was going to vote for, who I thought would make a better PM and who I think should be the Lib Dem leader.
Problem is that it sounds like a survey to everyone, not just LD members (though I am, alas, one of the latter).
I was asked on Yougov whether I was a Lib Dem member after I had answered the questions on Clegg / Huhne, so they will have an amongst Lib Dem members figure.
I think a new masthead is long overdue. Those eyes are a bit creepy.
The caveat that the Guardian doesn’t give is that the MP for Cambridge is a strong backer of Huhne.
Well two votes for Huhne were posted off from our household yesterday
O/T (I can’t get worked up about the LD leadership; both men IMO have proved themselves deeply unimpressive in this contest, I’m glad Cable’s not running) - the Guardian story on Northern Rock is the scariest thing out there today.
If I read it correctly, it states that NR doesn’t even *own* half its mortgage book, which has already been hived off.
What therefore remains to repay the taxpayer?
Have New Labour just wasted more on NR than any fiscal disaster in our history? Have they poured more than the entire schools budget down the drain?
18- The market is not reacting well (around -10% again for NRK).
16 - indeed!
I received my ballot papers earlier this week. One element that hasn’t yet been commented on is the literature sent out with it, and a glossy leaflet from both candidates just before this which has imo confused things a bit.
Clegg’s campaign has been based on being (and I quote) ‘a liberal, a thinker, and a plain speaker.’ But I found the glossy leaflet such a complex and dull read I gave up on it. The sheet sent out with the ballot paper cleverly quotes Steve Webb & Simon Hughes - see what he did there? - and reads like a decent focus leaflet.
Huhne’s glossy on the other hand is very clear and to the point, but it seems lightweight, with several named MP contributors who say a fairly standard 3 sentences about Huhne’s background. The ballot leaflet is very similar - in fact there is a far clearer branding and consistency to Huhne’s literature, and it feels like a new direction/style, challenging those who say that Huhne is dull.
Still can’t make my mind up between the two, but I’m now going back up to 65/35 for Clegg on who will win - I’m not convinced that Huhne is getting the traction his hustings performances sound like they deserve.
18 - The Economist (world-famous for its socialist tendencies) is now advocating nationalization of NRK !
Posted on the last thread I woke even earlier than Mike!:
“Tories Out Gunned by Liberal Democrats” Says former Conservative candidate Iain Dale in Telegraph
http://tinyurl.com/2d2ggk
“Since David Cameron became leader, he has tried to avoid the European issue dominating political debate. …..
But he has been outgunned by the Lib Dems, who have refused to offer a referendum on the treaty and instead have said there should be a referendum on EU membership itself, to settle the issue once and for all.”
Well, well, well -Iain Dale supporting the Liberal Democrats -I know Cameron is looking like the Steve McClaren of politics with his failure to score against a side as weak as Brown’s Labour Party but…
The tragedy for the Lib dems is that neither will be the leader they wish. Kennedy won’t run and Cable who has put in a fantastic performance over the last few weeks will continue to shine in the future. Who ever wins out of Huhne and Clegg will be a shadow to these two lights.
….and last nights by elections sound good for the Lib Dems - Labour polling 15 in one behind UKIP’s 40.
Yes, we must nationalise NRK but the trouble is NRK has half the asset base we assumed. Billions of taxpayers’ money will end up written off.
It’s an epic disaster. Wars have cost less.
14 - oops, yes you’re right Henry. I just wonder if there are lots of people who lie and say they are LD members in order to influence the survey results.
The Lib Dem leadership race hasn’t really focused on what many commentators said it ought to - “What is the overall direction of the Party?” Over many years, the economic approach of the Lib Dems (and the old Liberal Party) has been one of the most contested features of party ideology (Orange Book versus the others is only the latest incarnation of that struggle.) Chris Huhne has, I think unsuccessfully tried to tarnish Nick Clegg with “being a supporter of education vouchers”, but that apart, economics does not seem to have featured.
To this radical, it seems strange that at a time when the tenets of Thatcherite economics are unpopular generally, that there are not those prepared to argue harder for a new approach - especially in an avowedly radical party. It is the absence of a candidate who can or will do that which disappoints, not the absence of Vince Cable, whi I agree, is doing agood job in difficult circumstances as Acting Leader.
Has there been any discussion of the Newsnight debate between the two? I thought that Huhne came over much better - Clegg reminded me more of salesman than a leader! I am biased, as I’ve had my money on Huhne since the start!
BTW is there a betting market anywhere for what bad news will hit the government (or chancellor) today?!! Given the rate of news discovery this week, it could be turned into a real-time price index - the Darling Scale.
25 - I’m not sure it changes much. I think most of us had assumed that the bulk of NRs corporate borrowing was secured against its assets, and would be senior to (at the very least) the £11bn second tranche of lending from the BoE. If one were being prudent, one would be assuming a large chunk of that £11bn would prove difficult to recover.
The real question is what the true value of the assets underpinning the secured element of the BoE loan is now. I remain unconvinced that nationalisation would be the best way of slavaging value from this disaster.
At the hustings I attended when CK won the leadership, Hughes was a clear favorite at the meeting and even more so after the meeting as he was very impressive. In fact I was aware of those attending who went out and campaigned for him who had no intention of doing so prior to the meeting. I heard similar stories from elsewhere. Clearly though the armchair members out number the activists that attend the meeting by a significant factor.
Good point at 14. YouGov will have real data. I responded yesterday to the poll with a ‘Don’t know’ as I haven’t a clue who to vote for. Not that is going to worry anyone as going back all the way to Pardoe/Steel I have a 100% record of failing to vote for the winner - can’t believe I voted for Beith over Ashdown!
29 - sorry, “salvaging”. Although on second thoughts…
forgive me going off topic but flicking through last nights messages I saw this addressed to me;
“Let me say that I hold Roger in the deepest contempt for this sort of comment, perhaps he should go off to his favourite country France and live there so he can avoid the old buffers. I for one do not want his sort in our country. He is one of the people who have caused the ruin of this country. As one of the “old buffers” said tonight”
Itb was in reply to my criticism of the orchestrated personal attack on the Prime Minister by the ex heads of the armed forces which I thought then was squirm-worthy. I had pictured them gathering behind the bike sheds (now known as Whites) to prepare this ‘coup’ and a sad little coven they made.
Nonetheless ‘Fitaloon’ seems like a passionate person and he’s married to the admirable ChrisD so I’d like to apologize for so clearly offending him.
31 - well, Gordon loses us 11 billion is a hell of a headline. Thus far they have refused to admit taxpayers money will be lost.
We know it, Joe Public doesn’t.
Now Joe Public may find out. And if Cameron is feeling inspired, maybe some Tory ads pointing out how many schools, hospitals, post offices eleven billion quid provides!
Forest Heath DC Manor ward was a shock LibDem gain from Conservatives LibDem 281 Con 211 UKIP 32 - May result Con unopposed
24. The Lib-Dems are very strong in local by-elections in the South. Particularly Hampshire, where they have a very strong Huhne/Gidley/Oaten activist base. Past experience would suggest not to get too excited about these highly isolated and unrepresentative results.
Besides, I hear the old fogeys who won control of Winchester DC for us Tories in May are already c*cking it up. These oldies do irritate me. So stuck in their ways and unwilling to take decisions. They could do more to harm the chances of a Conservative Gain in the next election than good!
What’s really needed is a by-election in a Lab/Con marginal. That would be THE business.
Happy to take one in Winchester due to bottling out, not anybody dying!
35 Indeed the performance of my local govt Tories Horsham is far from a great advert for a Tory govt (shudder the thought).
Darling, the hero of the North-east, who braved the worst of savage conditions in order to rescue those poor souls clinging onto a northern rock. For this, Darling received the plaudits of the nation.
Depictions of Grace mid-rescue began to adorn trinkets, tea-caddies, plates, postcards and chocolate boxes, enabling Darling’s story to pervade households across the country. Locks of hair were requested, portrait painters had to be fought off…
Sadly for Alas Darling, this was Grace in 1838. Can’t see history repeating itself.
33 The Weekend media will do that free if charge, with ‘analysis’ of an incredible week:
-NR
-Qinetiq
-Discgate
-misleading parliament
-Army brass being open at last
-and extension of 28 days detention without trial attacked by DPP and Labour AG
-HIPs
-PSBR
-Yougov
And it is only Friday morning.
31
I don’t think the Guardian article contains much new news. The Granite offshore stuff is old. The delinquency figures are new.. but not surprising to anyone who posts or reads here (except Gabble
..
There will be provision sfor bad debts and I can’t see £11B of mortages going belly up all at once… (otherwise we are looking at 15% unemplyment, GDP -5% and a a widescale recession on the syle of the early 1930s)
So yes the taxpayer is exposed, yes Darling has lied (so what’s new?) and yes there may be some losses to the taxpayer but to suggest it is in the scale of £11B is just sheer extreme ramping rubbish.. and destroys the case.
If you said £1 to £2 billion it is believable…
And I write as no friend or supporter of Labour.
The big danger for Huhne is that some armchair members will have been put off him by the “Calamity Clegg” affair. However it is not a problem for me as I prefer his robust, streetfighting approach to the more laid back Cameron-lite Clegg. My Huhne vote is in the post.
Re 27 Huhne has shown far more willingness to tackle economic issues than Clegg who takes the approach of several modern politicians that the political debate has moved on from the economy. The fact Clegg is no economist (unlike Huhne) is also a factor I guess. Huhne and Cable (if the latter remains the economic spokesman) would be a formidable team to tackle Brown and the hapless Darling.
See Iain Dale is advocating an in-out referendum on the EU, to be Tory Party policy at the next election. Brown should get there first, and hold it next May, along with a referendum in Scotland on the Union, lance two boils at once.
http://tinyurl.com/3dmuan
42
i agree about Brown’s tactics. Imo he would win both votes. But as he is damaged goods and as he has no political courage, forget it. He will not risk it imo.
“The plan is to include the new leader in the PBC masthead whether it be Clegg or Huhne”
Shame, I think the current one sums up the state of play pretty well - a straight choice in the electorate’s mind between the Dour Scot and the Fresh New Start. The LDs are an irrelevant side show frankly, as their poll ratings demonstrate - two party politics has returned. Although if Labour carry on as they are, it could become a one horse race.
If you are going to include the LDs, Mike (and it’s your site, and you’re an LD), perhaps you might include the relevant bod at half the size of GB/DC and on the outer peripherary of the left of the masthead?
He’ll be there, but nobody will notice. That would, at least, be accurate.
43
Tragically I think your right, but desperate times, demand desperate action.
listening to Lord Boyce and Des Browne on the Today programme then they can’t both be telling the truth, and it was again completely pathetic that Browne was blaming many of hte problems encountered now on the previous Tory administration. Is that going to be the main plank of the next Labour manifesto - it’s not our fault blame the previous lot?
40. £11bn is over the top - but it could easily be more than £2-3bn if the BoE finds it hard to shift the mortgage assets at a decent price. The necessary haircut on these needs to be taken into account as well as possible bad debts.
The BoE - and by extension the taxpayer - really shouldn’t be exposed to these risks.
42 what would turnout be for a pointless vote like this? Why bother voting NO when no party would take any notice even if the public voted to leave?
40 - you misunderstand - I don’t think anyone is suggesting that £11bn of mortgages are likely to go belly up. That isn’t the issue. The question is how NR repays its corporate borrowing (including the BoE loans) as it falls due. If it can’t raise funds from the market to roll these over, it either has to default (bad, particularly if assets are secured at a discount), or sell chunks of its asset base to realise funds (bad right now, because an emergency sale will generate substantially less than they’re currently valued at on the balance sheet, particularly since most of the high quality part of its book will be secured by other charges - it would cause £bns of losses, which would hit the unsecured creditors, amongst others the BoE).
The one advantage to nationalising the company would be that the government would be providing public funds to replace NRs borrowing, allowing them to avoid the fire-sale scenario - but at the cost of even greater public exposure.
46 - “it’s not our fault blame the previous lot”
That’s been the Brown strategy since July hasn’t it?
The “previous lot”, though, being Blair and his cronies.
44 And the straight choice in Burnley will be between Labour who hold the seat and the Conservatives who came a distant 4th at the last GE and in this year’s local elections in Burnley . Think you need a reality check , Bob .
47
Yes £2-£B is possible and yes I agree we should not be where we are.. but we are here. I will be amazed - and delighted - and the first to congratulate Darling - IF the BOE clear NRK with less than a loss of £500million… cos he’s in a buyer’s market.
Of course the shareholders would lose it all.. but that’s life as a shareholder.
48 A binding referendum would mean summit. hence Gordon not doing it… sets a predent of letting the voters realise the politicians should be our servants .. and that would never do.
50- Blaming Blair’s government and his incompetent Chancellor, what a clever strategy!
If things are going down the drain for Labour this could be one of the Lib Dem’s best chances for many years. Despite all this talk about everyone heading for the centre ground the opposite has actually happened.
The Tories with their IHT stuff are just the same old fayre and Brown’s illiberal Labour party are giving Michael Howard a run for his money.
Enter Clegg! A genuine centrist who will remind voters of Blair before the Dr Strangelove years when he was genuinely liked. I’m certainly interested to hear what he’s got to say and I think the country is crying out for an alternative that isn’t Tory.
44 Dream on Bob! The long-term trend indicates that the era of two party politics is well and truly over, no matter what might be suggested by odd polls. And I say this coming from Lab, not LD. I think Huhne would be a much better choice (for reasons already stated above). The next election represents an opportunity for the LDs to increase their number of sets, not just defend what they’ve got. Basically there will be an unpopular/discredited govt and no great enthususiam for the main opposition party, so if the LDs can get their act together …
Would anyone disagree with the summary that Huhne would win back more votes for the LDs from Labour while Clegg would win more back from the Cons ?
Seems to have been a pretty good night for the Lib Dems in last nights local by-elections!
I think that the leadership election is going to be really quite close. I would certainly say that the Huhne price versus Clegg does not reflect what I am hearing. I would say that after the CK exit and the problems that resulted, there is a mood to make a point to the bulk of the Parliamentary party. The insurgent campaign might even get lucky.
53
The Defence Cheifs tended to blur one of the key issues. They want new toys: trident, 2 aircraft carriers , new transport planes, new helicopters etc etc.
I other words act out the status quo despite the fact the Cold War is 17 years dead.
About time a proper review decided our priorities cos money for the Armed Forces is NOT endless especially when an incompetent Chancellor and his boss are rapidly running out of money with PSBR going through the roof.
57- What would be more realistic prices then? 4/5 and 5/4 ?
56 Harry, tend to agree that Huhne would focus more on Labour votes and Clegg on Conservative. The votes that are “softer” and more easy to attract are going to be Labour and ex-Labour non voters.
Brown hasn’t yet shown a courageous side so I doubt he’ll do the clever thing and have an ‘in-out’ referendum. The Tories can’t afford to because half their party would be voting for ‘out’! This could be a serious opening for Clegg’s Liberals. It might have enormous support and give the new leader a real shot of publicity. This treaty referendum hasn’t generated any interest because no one understands it or believes it’ll make the slightest difference to anyones life.
58
Can anyone point to anytime in our history, when the armed forces ever said to any government, ‘We’re really happy with all our kit, thanks very much, we don’t need any thing else’ I don’t think so!
The obvious solution, to remove the obligation to buy British, allow the armed forces to buy their kit from anywhere in the world. As with anything else, buy on merit, not on nationality.
Also realise that the Army, should now get priority, the Navy and the Airforce are only there as support services for the Army. Navy and Airforce equipment should therefore reflect that.
Listening to various Labour MP’s defending MOD policy on the media this morning it became very clear what the weakness at the heart of everything they do. The core of their defence is, “we have spent this much..” “we have increased spending by this much..” Its Brown’s favourite rebuttal in PMQ’s as well.
Dont they realise that these days no one is really interested in the fact that they are spending money..We all, to our significant cost and frustration, know how much of the nations wealth they are “spending”. I’d give them an A-plus for “spending”.
What the country is increasingly much more interested in and what it is desparate to hear from this bunch of polytechnic social science teachers and social oddities is what on earth are you spending our billions on and with what results?
OT Jeff Randall sounds an extremely gloomy note on the economy and lambasts Brown in today’s Telegraph:
“One City veteran said to me this week: “These are the worst conditions I’ve known for 30 years. This does not feel like the stock-market crash of 1987, not even the currency chaos of 1997. It feels like the 1970s - a big one.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/23/ccjeff123.xml
It appears that even the left-wing New Statesman are now refering to the wretched PM as “Calamity Brown”.
63
What the country is increasingly much more interested in and what it is desparate to hear from this bunch of polytechnic social science teachers and social oddities is what on earth are you spending our billions on and with what results?
As opposed to second rate PR men who worked for third rate TV companies.
51 - sorry Mark, I hadn’t realised that Burnley was the crucial seat that could determine the next GE! I don’t think anyone in Burnley had realised that either.
As regards that seat, you do realise that the Tories have always come second there before - a young(er) Anne Widdecombe came within 700 votes of stealing it from Labour in 1983 (a different world I accept) - and that a botched Tory decision on candidate selection and a very unusual campaign last time with two high profile local independents (so-called) and a better than expected performance from the BNP, now withering away locally, completely put the cat among the pigeons. The LDs look in local elections because the Tories don’t field candidates in every ward, the LDs do. Since 2005, the Libs are running the local council (with support from the Tories) and not getting a particularly good press for doing so. The leader (and LD PPC) is not getting rave reviews judging by my local paper’s letters page and is a Blackburn Rovers fan to boot (this matters locally…!).
I actually think Labour will hold the seat next time, but the Tories should reclaim their rightful second spot - particularly given the near 10 point leap in ratings nationally.
Woger, before leaving for PLanet Zog, remember you posted that NR would diappear from view and that no one would be interested in two missing CDs.
As someone who earns £6,000 a day for doing very little, I suspect that you would be interested if your financial full details were “posted” and then lost.
Of course if this is of no importance you could flag up your name, address, bank account numbers etc etc here for all to see.
Yesterday you said that the Service Chiefs could not run a “cake shop”. Presumably Brown and Darling can?
What is important and tragic is that people are dying. Soldiers are dying in battles started by your hero Blair, the one you once described as a Giant. Dying because they have substandard or inadequate equipment. All because Broon prefers to spend money on Deborah Mattinson’s focus groups.
I realise that these soldiers are probably ordinary people, without four house, no favourite restaurant in the South of France and that they may even know where Barnet is. Very different to you, sipping coffee in Covent Garden and reading the Guardian
In short fly off to Planet Zog, I suspect that itis better there. France will think that you are as stupid as we do.
66 - that should have read “The LDs look to do better in local elections…”
65. Part time Defence minister = half hearted support of the armed forces.
Can you imagine having a part time Health secretary ?
Broon has finished new Labour - there will be no forth term. GE 2010 will be a bloodbath.
O/T but John Loony asked “39 and 113 et al. If the people of Zimbabwe prefer Smith to Mugabe then how come Mugabe has been consistently and repeatedly re-elected? ”
In much the same way as Eric Honeker, Enver Hoxha, Saddam Hussein, Kim Il Sung etc were repeatedly re-elected.
67 “France will think that you are as stupid as we do. ”
If you must speak, P&K, speak for yourself.
Less of the ‘we’, please.
63
Neither party has a coherent, workable and defensible Defence Policy.
We are trying to act like a mini World Power.. with a reducing budget.. It’s not sustainable.
The economy can’t afford it .. AND all the other commitments on social policy etc..
Instead of hard decisions, we end up continuing all policies…and ending up with fiascos like helicopters that cannot fly in bad weather cos of cost cutting etc..
I cannot see any politcians standing up and saying “we need to make hard choices. Raise income tax by 1p and get new aircraft carriers or not. Or cut unemployment benefit. or pensions.. ete”
…..and Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. Crap electoral systems!
65
You’ve been posting some reasonably astute stuff this last couple of days but that one was just weak. Crass even.
Sean at 70 passes over the election of Leader of the UK Labour Party, where the rules ensured that no one could actually oppose the supreme leader. That is also out of the Mugabe book of democracy
HF. Don’t agree. Why would a Tory be attracted to Clegg if he is a Cameron clone as some suggest? Clegg reminds me a lot of Blair so I imagine those who mourn his passing might well be attracted to Clegg. Huhne reminds me of a provincial accountant so I doubt he’ll appeal to anyone.
69: If they start eating humble pie by the spadeload they might still get away with it, but this ‘we’re always right’ attitude isn’t winning them friends.
71- and less pretence of what “France” will think, please
71 I agree with Pot and Kettle and I’m sure I’m far from being the only one around here. Roger’s defence of the government and attempts to dismiss the latest major setbacks is becoming increasingly bizarre and suggests someone who has lost touch with reality.
Blimey!! You don’t think our Rog is Calamity Brown himself do you?
Woger usually posts for the nation. However, I am the second poster to suggest he will not be missed elsewhere, and his increasingly risible posts usually get a chorus of derision.
At 61 Woger refers to the EU Constitution in the terms that “no one understands it” In short he claims to speak for everyone.
12: Yes, I mischievously suggested a write-in campaign to Vince last week after the Politics Show bust-up. He wasn’t tempted!
Generally poor Tory by-elections last night among those reported so far - two LD gains from them, and they failed to take the only Labour seat up for grabs. Because of all the Tory triumphalism here I’ve been more one-sided in my own interpretations than I like to be, but isn’t it objectively a bit striking that the Tories aren’t profiting more from all this stuff? Their 40-43 rating is good but not moving, and they’re still behind in the competence ratings. If people think the Government is shaky and the Opposition unimpressive, potentially a real opportunity for the new LD leader.
74
Gosh! just thought that was a reasonable response. Let me remind you, I don’t do sides, if I’m not happy with the present government, (after all GB cost me money when he backed out of the GE) I’m no happier with the thought of DC and his crowd taking over.
In fact I’m thinking of starting, B.B.T. (Bring Back Tone) you know where you were with ‘Tone’ you may not have liked him, but where you were, you knew: could catch on!
Anyone else worried by THIS:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
Guys - please reassure me that Labor will win (never thought I’d say that?!?!) in Oz.
I’ve got £100 to lose I can ill afford if the coalition pull it off at the last minute
Am I worrying unnecessarily???
79 But if ‘we’ wish to take issue with Roger, ‘we’ can do it ourselves. We don’t need somebody to do it on our behalf.
That’s the point I’m making.
Meanwhile, interesting news from the Lib-Tory coalition in Denmark…probably no poll on the constitution, but a poll to approve joining the Euro!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/23/weu123.xml
‘I agree with Pot and Kettle’. This surely ends any argument about whether or not Voxpop is a creature.
85: ahem! On the treaty, I mean. I’m obviously socialising too much with seanT…
82
You’ve been beaten to it. I hear the BBT (Bring back Tone) campaign is already well underway amongst growing sections of the Labour Party!
Woger is actually a mixture. To create this persona he posts a lot about himeself, unfortunately he tends to forget what he has said.
He once referred to being at Millfield with a leading businessman, whom Woger naturally rubbished. This particular person was born in 1945, making him 62. Woger then got terribly upset when he was reminded that he must be about 60.
Well, he was either telling porkies about when he was at Millfield or cannot remember his age.
Woger could be Broon. After all Broon has probably never met an English person, or one he likes, and therefore has created Woger as the kind of English person Broon would like to be.
Woger also spends a lot of time asking if posters are other posters.
80 If it’s wrong for Roger to speak for others, why is it right for you P&K?
Anyway, the point is that if I want to criticise Roger, or anybody, I’ll do it for myself and don’t need you or anybody to do it for me.
83- Great! That would mean another cliffhanger election to follow on pb.com
81. “If people think the Government is shaky and the Opposition unimpressive, potentially a real opportunity for the new LD leader.”
I know you have been actively provoked to respond with fighting talk Nick, but this statement is pathetic.
You might have had a point in 2004/2005 - but not now.
Once we start to poll regularly at 45%+ it’s all over. That’s just another 3-4% swing - that’s all.
It’s only a matter of time..
81
Any chance of you joining B.B.T. (Bring Back Tone) Nick?
Also Iain Dale’s call for an in-out referendum on the EU, think Labour might back that idea, next May?
Be interesting to see which way DC would jump, in or out?
86 Can we assume from that that you agree with Roger then?
83. I thought they’re were near-certainties to win? C4 news last night carried an item about an underhand attempt by the Liberals to associate Labour with Islamic fundamntalism that has backfired disastrously.
Huhne
91. No it ain’t!! I thought there was no chance of me losing my £100!!
Does no wonder for my nerves..
O/T NIESR warns Rock could end hope of balanced Budget
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3187167.ece
89 If I want to talk about Roger, or any of his comments, I will. I am not. I am talking about you, and your assumption that ‘we’ all joined you in ‘our’ condemnation.
You do not speak for ‘us’. It is unlikely you ever will.
Got it?
Sorry Hune is 2.96 on betfair now…
Bring Back Tony - yes please. Bring back a bloke who was so much of an electoral liability and hated that he had to replaced with the much more substantial, popular and honest Gordon Brown!
83 “Am I worrying unnecessarily???”
Yes, Casino Royale.
93 It would be pointless. If the government lost such a referendum, would they really pass legislation to withdraw from the EU?
83 Don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose
100 That’s only on the buy side, Harry. It’s 3.45 on the lay. Huge gap. Illiquid market.
The 3/1 on Alistair Darling not be Chancellor by Xmas 2007 is looking very attractive.
I think we should send Darling a black plastic bin bag.
(to help him clean his desk out)
94 Sometimes I do and sometimes I don’t. His posts are always well-written, courteous, and are often entertaining as well as insightful. In short Roger’s contributions to the site are always worth reading, and it would be a big loss if you succeeded in your campaign to chase him off it.
100. Make that 2.7..
Come on someone - fill up the market - I fancy Huhne but at a better price than that pls..
100. Make that 2.7..
Come on someone - fill up the market - I fancy Huhne but at a better price than that pls..
106- More bad news for Darling : GDP growth revised down in Q3
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/23112007/325/gdp-growth-revised-q3.html
103 the right strategy for DC is to campaign for a referendum and let GB shred the remains of his reputation by forcing it through parliament. the way is then clear to campaign at the GE to repatriate powers from brussels. this will keep the party together and gtee the sceptic vote stays with the tories.
66 Bob , it was only the other day you was forecasting that the Labour MP in Burnley would be packing her bags , remind us to not take that sort of post from you seriously . There is no sign of any recovery in Conservative fortunes there , they even trailed the BNP in this year’s local elections .
On a general note , the reality is that in most parts of the country it is not a straight fight between Conservatives and Labour . In much of the rural South Labour is virtually extinct and the fight is between Conservatives and LibDems . In much ( but not all ) of the urban North the fight is between Labour and the LibDems . In Scotland there is also the SNP . The straight fight that you seem to yearn for may well apply in but only 1/3rd of all the Parliamentary seats and it may be your idea of democracy that the remaining 2/3rds of voters are of no consequence but it is not mine .
93
When the referendum is announced on both the EU and Scotland, it be made clear that it would be binding.
Just think if it were announced, this site would go into the stratosphere, it would certainly brighten up the long winter evenings.
107
My “campaign to chase him off it”…, you what? excuse me? come again? What “campaign” would that be. Disagreeing with another poster doesn’t constitute a “campaign to chase him off” FFS.
Some people round here have a tendency to get a little over-sensitive IMO.
102. Peter the Prophet.
Seeing as your word is as good as the word of the Lord on these matters, I will worry no longer!!!
Should I bet on any Oz constituency results??
Please lead us, oh great one!
111
Party leaders would have to campaign in or out, Labour/Libdems would be in, which way would the Tories go?
114. I’m afraid when you second P&K’s instruction that he ‘fly off to Planet Zog’ (See 71 and 79) that is what you are doing.
97&102 View it as a betting opportunity CR ….and where is Alexander when you need him?
104:
“BAAAARRRYYYY!!!!”
Please leave out the smug moral advice - my house is not going to be repossessed if I lose. I’d just rather not lose £100 this close to Christmas on what I thought was a dead cert.
Capiche?
116 the tories would simply ignore the idiotic and pointless vote, as would the public. Unfortunately the government has no credibility with the public and they would KNOW a NO vote would be ignored.
81. You will remember well where the Conservatives were just 8 weeks ago. Numerous articles, ‘experts’, politicians and bloggers commenting that the Conservatives were finished and unelectable.
We even had the master of the mistimed speech Mr Kinnock bragging inappropriately that it was time to grind the Tories into the dust. In fact for that matter consider the position of the Conservative party for the last 15 years!
Now consider where they are today, the fact that they are consistently polling over 40%, have opened a 9 point gap over Labour and have either drawn level or are ahead of Labour on competence is a truly stunning achievement (helped of course by truly stunning incompetence from Brown et co.
Where you and many commentators are absolutely spot on is in reminding us that none of this matters until a GE and that much could change. However, as a starting base this is an astonishingly good position for the Conservatives and as was shown by teh polls post Black Wedensday, the true impact of Labour’s 8 week horror show will probably not be felt until next year.
The correct result for the Conwy BC result yesterday was as follows LibDem gain from Conservative LibDem 548 Con 517 Ind 80 BNP 61 Green 36 . The result posted on here last night indicating a very big BNP vote was clearly a spoof .
Previous byelection 2006 Con 716 LibDem 479
2004 result Con 1003/751/739 Plaid 760 Ind 502/337 Lab 344
Strangely Plaid seem to have given up here .
120
The government would make it clear, that the decision would be binding and final. The government should also announce. that if the country went against its advice, (in on both) a GE would be immediately called. Which way would the Tories go, in-or-out?
123 but back in the real world nobody would believe the government. After months of being labelled a traitor in the press for reneging on a manifesto promise for a treaty ref not one person would take him seriously. in/out = cheap political stunt and we all know how well they have been working lately!
115 Casino
My Australian spies reconfirmed only this morning that Labor will win.
There has been a poll suggesting the result could be close and that has impacted the markets. It’s hard to tell how significant it is. I’m inclined to dismiss a one-off, so close to the election when all the others have shown a clear Labor win. Nevertheless I closed out my gamble on Bennelong, just to be on the safe side.
I left open some small bets on Forde, Leichardt, Ryan, McPherson and Wentworth.
The spies have promised to text me if there are any interesting further developments and have asked me to post promptly on this Site any news they pass on. Naturally I will be pleased to do so.
124
Humour me, the Tories which way would DC go in-or-out?
Your copping out for the simple reason, its the one thing that DC would hate to have to decide, all the wounds would re-open.
Brown of course, won’t do it anyway, he’s incapable of twisting on 17, TB on the otherhand!
118 PfP
Alexander is busy trying to get Howard reelected, but rest assured that he is thinking of us and will convey any important information promptly.
My post at 125 refers.
Re 109: Sid will still oblige - Huhne still 5/2 at Hills
In 2006 I attended the LibDem hustings and was polled. The Guardian pollster was Sir Michael White himself.
PA reports:
Liberal Democrats are celebrating a by-election bounce during their leadership battle after taking two council seats from Tories.
Their candidate Timothy Huggan won at Manor, Forest Heath District, Suffolk, where Conservatives were unopposed in May.
The second gain came at Rhiw, Conwy County Borough, north Wales, where Trevor Stott triumphed in the ward’s third by-election in less than four years.
Liberal Democrats also scored a landslide victory to defend a previously knife-edge marginal at Norfolk County Council’s Aylsham division where the previous contest was on the same day as the last general election.
The Lib Dem revival, after their gloom leading up to the resignation of Sir Menzies Campbell as leader, is bad news for the Tories’ David Cameron in what was otherwise a good week for him.
His hopes of making it to Downing Street depend crucially on making progress against Liberal Democrats as well as Labour.
There were too few comparable contests to indicate how Labour support has stood up in the face of crises over Northern Rock and the data loss debacle and England’s exit from Euro 2008.
There was a swing to the Tories at Rossendale Borough, Lancashire, where they lost three seats on the same day in September.
RESULTS:
Carmarthenshire County - Llandybie: Ind 496, Lab 337, Plaid Cymru 310, C 52, Ind 49. (May 2007 - Two seats Ind 881, Lab 747, Plaid Cymru 584, 516). Ind hold. Swing 3.4% Lab to Plaid Cymru.
Conwy County Borough - Rhiw: Lib Dem 548, C 513, Ind 80, BNP 61, Green 36. (June 2004 - Three seats C 1003, Plaid Cymru 760, C 751, 739, Ind 502, Lab 344, Ind 337; August 2005 by-election - C 658, Lib Dem 209, Plaid Cymru 147; March 2006 by-election - C 716, Lib Dem 479). Lib Dem gain from C.
Forest Heath - Manor: Lib Dem 281, C 211, Ukip 32. (May 2007 - C unopposed). Lib Dem gain from C.
Norfolk County - Aylesham: Lib Dem 1696, C 854, Lab 177, Ukip 71. (May 2005 - Lib Dem 1862, C 1833, Lab 1279). Lib Dem hold. Swing 14.8% C to Lib Dem.
Rossendale Borough - Hareholme: Lab 591, C 520. (May 2007 - Two seats Lab 713, 693, C 626, 560, Lib Dem 206). Lab hold. Swing 0.4% Lab to C.
Wellingborough Borough - West: C 363, Lib Dem 149, Lab 38. (May 2007 - C 426, Ind 206, Green 106). C hold.
Winchester City - Wickham: Lib Dem 630, C 349, Ukip 40, Lab 15. (May 2007 - Lib Dem 809, C 484, Lab 31). Lib Dem hold. Swing 1.3% C to Lib Dem.
126 They would choose to stay in
” reads like a decent focus leaflet ”
What? - full of bullsh*t and opportunism?
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
125. “My Australian spies”, “The spies have promised to text me”
Love it
Are they hiding in the ballot boxes?
Anyway, surely in your case, it they should be; “My Representatives on Earth”
5/2 Huhne with Blue Square is the best price on offer and even allows a small arb with Betfair.
133 You are too kind, Casino, and exaggerate my powers.
It is true however that I do move in mysterious ways.
Really I’m pleased to hear it, so how about J.Redwood esq, and those Mp’s who belong to B.O.O. would they follow suit?
136 answer to 131
136 you asked to be humoured! and as for TB. that would be the bloke who promised a referendum and then reneged on it. some credibility he has.
128/134 Goupillon/John L
Thanks for that. I took £50 worth. Didn’t want to overcommit. It’s a difficult election to call, for all the reasons given on this Site by numerous posters.
107,
I agree its risible that Pot and Kettle and vox pop chase Roger.
Get a life, and at be prepared to at least listen to a different view to your own, without being totaly derisory and contemptuous.
There is no doubt you are in the ascendancy.
However a bit like the reaction to GB at the moment on a person level people might start to think personal attacks can be over the top.
Going back to Benedict’s 225 on the previous thread:
The point is that the CEO of an organisation is assumed to be competent and aware of his duties (in this case a minister or PM) and assumed to have ensured that such serious duties data protection have been looked after by a person competent to do the job, viewing such reports as necessary. In that sense it is the fault of government.
The key is the relationship between a minister, and the actual head of a standalone agency/department or the permanent secretary. The latter are the clear analogues of a CEO, with responsibility for administration and executive tasks - with the minister being responsible for policy-related decisions and for setting the remits within which the head of the agency/department works. The line can be fairly diffuse - as various crises since the 1995 Howard/Lewis situation demonstrate.
This doesn’t absolve ministers from responsibility: when a crisis like this occurs, then you question whether the Chancellor’s instructions to Paul Gray led directly to the situation; or whether the government’s reactions genuinely protect the people at risk, and seek to correct the errors of the HMRC, rather than simply covering their own hides. But I don’t think, at this level, you can treat any minister as the ultimate executive in charge, unless there’s a clear reason to suspect direct ministerial involvment. That leads to wider problems, such as accentuating the trend of centralisation, and greater manipulation of the civil service for partisan ends.
Sorry, Goupillon @ 128: didn’t see your post. Yes, Hills also 5/2.
It’s all cracking off in Derby:-
http://tinyurl.com/35z92x
114 Voxpop
In case you were unaware, P&K has conducted over a very long period an obsessive campaign against Roger, a kind of unpleasant cyber-stalking.
Do you really want to be associated with it?
138
You’d be surprised how the hot breath of the electorate on a politician’s collar can change attitudes.
The fact that an in-out referendum is being mooted by such as Mr Dale means its in the, ‘trap’ we await the starting gun.
127 Thanks PtP. Do you think this is worth a top-up bet at Labor’s current odds of 1.38, compared with 1.28 recently. There seems little doubt that Labor will win the popular vote, but the seat distribution is another thing - it’s a bit like the UK in this respect only in reverse.
114. etc. If Roger just posted inane drivel he wouldn’t attract the hostile attention that he does. But Roger has in the past also engaged in plenty of bullying and abuse of other posters - while frequently moaning about ‘falling standards of discussion’ (always it seems when Labour is struggling, I wonder why?)
In addition, there is a strong suspicion, as P&K suggests, that some of the biographical details/anecdotes he posts may not be entirely accurate - which makes his endless complaints about posters using pseudonyms a bit rich.
145 On a personal level I would vote to “renegotiate” taking us back to the free trade area we joined but alas I will never get that vote.
146 Yes, in all honesty I do think it’s worth a top-up at 1.38. I did so this morning but I’m now up to £1k and that’s as exposed as I want to be on this election.
I think Labor are safe and value at 2/5, but you can never be entirely sure.
Last news from the bunker:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?storyID=9604
From the Guardian report - this is dynamite.
Mortgage loans of over 90% of the purchase price of a house have soared to £16bn, from £2.7bn, in the space of three years.
· Loans have exceeded the value of the property on nearly 2,500 mortgages, with a value of £263m. Three years ago, the figure was just £13m on 158 properties.
· 10,000 Northern Rock customers are a month or more in arrears on their mortgages, on loans worth nearly £1.2bn. At the end of 2003, there were only 2,500 in the same difficulties, with mortgages worth £168.8m.
· In 2003 Northern Rock repossessed 80 properties. Last year more than 1,000 properties were repossessed. By the end of September this year 912 properties had already been repossessed.
147 Fair enough, Simon S, and Roger can address these criticisms should he so wish. My point was that P&K did not speak for us all, and should not talk as if he did.
His relentlessness stalking of Roger is another matter. I presume you do not defend it?
Btw, I don’t recognise the name. New poster?
149. “but you can never be entirely sure”
Peter, you’re right - *we* can’t, but you can!!
I will take your advice and top-up when I get home; assuming the odds are still good.
In for a penny, in for a pound, eh??