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Have the Lib Dems had a 6% or an 8% ICM boost?

November 24th, 2007

    Why is there confusion at the Guardian over the Lib Dem total?

guardian fp icm nov 07.JPGThe main lead in the Guardian this morning is its new ICM poll which shows huge changes on the last survey from the pollster just under a fortnight ago. These are the shares with comparisons on that survey – CON 37% (-6): LAB 31% (-4): LD 21/23% (+6/8)

The reason why I am quoting two figures for the Lib Dems is that the story in the Guardian says “Despite having only an interim leader, the Liberal Democrats are up three points to 23%.”

This does not make sense because the last ICM survey for the paper had them at 18% so a three per cent boost would put them at 21%. The Guardian always quotes comparisons with its own polls not other ICM surveys.

At 6.30 pm last night, when the paper first put the story out a 21% Lib Dem share was reported – see here. But in the story now on their web-site the figure is 23%.

While the paper puts the focus on Labour’s drop, which given the appalling series of bad news is hardly surprising, the big news, surely, has been the boost for Clegg/Huhne’s party. This happened only days after that massive public row over the “Calamity Clegg” document and the wide suggestions by many commentators that this would be bad for them.

Well that has not been the case. The reason, I believe, is that for most of the time the party finds it very difficult to command any media attention whatsoever. But the highly publicised row followed by some assured performances by acting leader, Vince Cable, have reminded voters that they are still there.

    The party that will be most disappointed by today’s survey are the Tories. They must have been hoping for a boost, or at least just to maintain their 40% plus position, from Labour’s dreadful week

Labour must have been ready for this and my guess is that there’ll be some relief that they are still in the 30s.

Mike Smithson






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