The YouGov poll - does it live up to its billing?
November 29th, 2007
Is it as “devastating as we were led to believe?
Earlier this evening this appeared on the Daily Telegraph blog - “Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Telegraph is, to quote our polling guru Anthony King, ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen’. That’s quite a verdict from a man who has been looking at these things for four decades.”
This set peoples’ imaginations racing especially as the last poll to publish, ComRes on Tuesday, had the Tories 13% ahead with Labour down at 27%.
This evening shares with changes on the last YouGov poll a weeks ago are: CON 43% (+2): LAB 32% (-2): LD 14% (nc). So not quite on the scale of ComRes but still the biggest ever Tory lead recorded by the internet pollster.
The changes that appear on the paper’s graphic, above, are not the same as those in our comparison which looks at the last YouGov poll and not just the last one to appear in the paper.
In many ways I consider this to be better for Cameron than ComRes. That had the Tory share down a point while this latest YouGov survey has them up two at a record 43%.
If these levels were repeated in a general election then the Tories could be looking towards an overall majority of 58. Very workable.
For punters the big question is whether this will shift the spread markets? My guess is that it will but not by that much.
Mike Smithson
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The Blair and Prescott double act doesnt seem quite so bad now….
Never mind the polls, QT’s on.
Come on Caroline, you can wipe the floor with this lot.
(I’m with Labour for the next hour…
)
Mike, I think Anthony King’s comments were particularly referring to the underlying figures surrounding ministerial performance, which really are awful.
2 - good win for you Tuesday!
Time for boothroyd to go lol!
The forced choice question is very illuminating. Would the Conservatives now do much better under an AV system than people thought?
2 - urgh, didn’t like the side profile shot then. Not her best side.
Anyway, the gal’s doing well. Flinty for PM…
5. Labour has nowhere left to run. No gerrymandering, corruption or vote buying will save them now.
4 - it was indeed. We’re closing the gap on you guys.
Just like Labour are….
…on the Lib Dems!
Hain failed to register a £5k donation.
8 - watford = lol
Lab = hahaha
Hain admits he took a donation too….
QT: Flint speaking well. One to watch.
9 - Bizarre. A £5k donation from Mendelsohn!
11 - Mendelsohn paid the money to Hain. Oh dear.
Go on you Brown cronie, “Cameron a young boy who’s never done a day’s work in his life”
Hear, hear.
The workshy ponce of a toff.
Lab hold York, increased majority.
10. Labour are headed for Dr.Marten’s league hahahahaha
This is almost as exciting as election night
Not watching newsnight but please summarise!
No government ministers were available to comment. It is believed they were all busy deleting computer files having learnt of the impending police investigation.
The point about this poll is not so much the headline numbers (more on these and their message in a moment) but the truly devastating judgement being passed on the Government in the accompanying questions.
While poll numbers flop all over the place, reputations don’t. Once lost, they are very difficult to rebuild and this poll is dismal reading for Labour on that axis. They are now in a horrible place. Their reputation lies in tatters just as their flexibility to spend and impress is withering and their policy machine is juddering to a halt.
For me though the true message here is to the Conservatives. Despite the mauling of Labour’s reputation, they are still polling 33% which suggests there are large numbers of voters still not able to contemplate putting an X in the Tory box.
That represents a challenge to the Conservatives given the adverse electoral mathematics, because I for one am sure that Labour’s numbers will recover somewhat in the medium term.
We Conservatives have two years to demonstrate that we have earned the right to some of these reluctant voters’ confidence. If we can, it’s now all there for the taking.
12. I reckon she could be PM before long.
I’ll be stuffing Labour leaflets through letterboxes if so, comrades. And sewing elbow patches on my jackets.
We’ll keep the red flag flying here!
OT. For any US Election followers, Frank Luntz’s view on last nights GOP debate.
http://hotair.com/archives/2007/11/29/frank-luntz-fred-won-the-debate/
Caroline Flint isn’t doing badly at all under the circumstances, but that idiotic Brownite businessman next to her is on another planet!
I don’t want to be too negative but a lot of voters just don’t like Cameron. His figures are still ten points down on where Brown was a month ago. I’d been contemplating whether it really would be that bad to have a Tory government and then I heard his smug voice on radio and thought it would actually be worse! I’m afraid there is just something about him and by the look of the poll I’m not the only person to think so.
Sorry, should have been Labour on 32% obviously.
The first front bench casualty of this donor crisis: charlie Gordon MSP Labours transport shadow. This could cripple Wendy Alexander.
Sun headline is hilarious.
22-Thanks!!!
5. The forced vote is indeed interesting, as it gives an indication of how the tactical vote will go. It’s not always possible to compare them directly with the headline figures due to different methods of calculations, but with that note of caution it doesn’t look disasterous for Brown on that score - if the forced vote split is much the same as the headline figures it does imply that at least the tactical vote won’t be heavily against Labour (although given that the previous one was towards Labour, it would point to the tactical swing being against them).
The thing I’d pick up most on is that the electorate doesn’t yet seem convinced with Cameron and team, or the Lib Dems for that matter. There is certainly great disillusionment with Labour, heading towards contempt, but if more than thirty percent are still backing them, that remains the one silver lining (though at eleven points down, it’s a pretty thin one). The Tory share is creeping upwards - and has now hit the 43% that Cameron included on his leadership graphic - but is well short of where Labour was in 1994-5. Even so, I’d say that matters are now far more in the Tory’s hands than in Labour’s or anyone else’s.
A little bit surprised to see that on the forced choice question the Conservative/Cameron lead of 7% is lower than they enjoyed earlier this year when it was consistently 9-10% .
Who’s watching Question Time then? Alan Duncan is being quite superb! Really impressed with him. He desperately needs more media time.
22-Did you see the debate?
24 - Which part of the poll are you looking at Roger?
(BTW, deciding someone would be a worse Prime Minister of a worse Govt because of his voice? That’s pretty desperate!)
Mike is right that it’s a very good Tory poll which would give them a working majority. Is it what folk here expected after the last week? No - and if you doubt me, read the predictions from before it appeared.
Underlying figures tend to be discounted here except when we agree with them, but clearly reflect a general “cor, what a mess” mood - note a tendency to give less generous assessments to things like the handling of the floods that were previously rated highly. Whe npeopole are fed up, they’re fed up with everything.
Based on that, should the Tories be thrilled to bits that they are slightly ahead on the forced choice question and Labour is a whole 4% down on the GE? Not really - in fact any rejoicing reflects an underlying assumption that the Tories are always going to be behind on the forced choice.
It’s a good poll. The most amazing in the history of the galaxy? Nah.
29. David, It appears you and I (20.) are thinking pretty much the same way
27-What is the headline?
36 - Ello, ‘ello, ‘ello.
18. Newsnight’s piece was that Harman has probably not disclosed a loan in relation to her leadership campaign.
She is still fundraising (there’s a function for her campaign coming up soon, where it will be interesting to see how many attend of those who bought tickets). Presumably that’s because she has bills to pay off, yet only one loan is declared in the official paperwork and Newsnight implied there should be more.
You have to wonder about who is leaking all this information about Labour. Who is the source for the Carter-Abrahams image. And how did the journalists point out that Abrahams was at the front of Tony Blairs swansong speech. I can’ tbelieve for a second they remembered or made the connection unaided.
It looks like there is someone in the know pouring petrol on this dispute. I know this doesn’t change the substance of the story, but there is something going on. Someone inside Labour is trying to make the story worse.
Somebody’s resigned? Who? Where? How?
Crikey Caroline Flint drones on and on and on doesn’t she?
Maybe the Tories aren’t so far ahead because people have long memories….. and are slowly recognising the truth of H.L. Mencken’s dictum that elections merely offer Jackasses a choice of Jackals….
34 - Nick, I think you’ll find the “predictions” were based on trying to find a set of figures which fitted the description of “devastating”. Not genuine predictions of what the actual situation would be.
Roger and Nick should bear in mind this poll is from Monday. More bad news since then.
34 - but I am sure that when you go out into your constituency at the weekend, from previous reports you will see a different picture.
Mark - the ones earlier this year were hypothetical ones with Brown as Labour leader, and we know how badly he polled in those. The interesting one (which I’ve picked out in my post on it) is one in June 2006 that was asked with Cameron and Blair and had a nine point Tory lead.
Most of these figures aren’t unprecedented at all (expect perhaps Alistair Darling’s approval rating, 11% approval is worse than other pollsters had for Lamont and Clarke), they just show Labour being back at the position they were in during the dying days of Blair’s leadership…which stripped of all the silly hyperbole about being utterly devastating and unprecedented in the history of polling, is still pretty bad.
36-Thanks
41.Seems a humourless woman too……In a week like this we need Hazel Blears to cheer us all up!
41: Hey, watch it!
I’ll be asking you to step outside if you keep that up…
QT Re post 31: Perhaps, but is that a wig or a tea cosy on top of his head?
statement from Metropolitian Police
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7119805.stm
40 Antony - please see BBC Scotland news website for minister resignation story. Sorry I cannot link cos posting from a mobile.
46-Do you think they(Labour) can recover before the next GE and with Brown as leader?
48- flint is notorious in parliament for having no sense of humor- she used to be a raving feminist years ago and its probably a hangover from that. Her nickname is the ‘black widow’.
32. Sky+’ed it and ffwd through most of it. It’s quite funny how many of the Youtube questions have turned out to be Democrat plants.
On a betting note, I just spotted this comment below the vid…
“Rush Limbaugh just about came as close as possible to endorsing Fred! without actually endorsing him. “He’s the only true conservative up there””
I haven’t been to the States for while but isn’t this guy huge in right wing talk radio?
Has the heating broken down in the Newsnight studio ? Lots of people wearing coats…
Perhaps journalists might like to investigate any discussions Brown was having with certain colleagues prior to the Ashcroft money u-turn in (or not in) the Queen’s Speech. Perhaps it was not pb.com which was responsible for the sudden change of heart…
QT: Nick Farage speaking well
39: Not necessarily could just be the photographer making a few quid
Guardian: Harman implicates Brown
Telegraph: Labour at War
Sun: Elo Elo ELo
And the good news for Brown in the other papers is
“House Prices Crashing” !
40 a link to the paper that broke the story
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1867076.0.0.php
51. “We note that you have not provided any evidence in relation to this or any indication that relevant evidence may exist” - is my memory playing tricks or did not the Prime Minister admit that illegal donations had been made and have since been returned?
59 Well explain who pointed out that Abrahams was in the front row of that speech?
56- its being held in a airport hanger, so its probably a bit chilly!
46. Anthony I accept what you say but isn’t it true that this poll represents the highest poll rating ever for the Conservatives on Yougov and the biggest lead they have had over Labour in a Yougov poll?
54. Was probably a Socialist too in the bad old days, at least she saw the folly in that nonsense!
51 I don’t see why Labour should be worried if Ian Blair is on the job.
60 - Grim isnt it.
O/T - Dale is questioning the symmetry between the Abrahams/Kidd 5k donations and the Mendelsohn 5k donation to Hain.
54 - she’s 46 though. And hot.
Seriously, I think she’s a good performer. And I’m not just saying that because I have a Mrs Robinson style crush on her…
46 Anthony , quite true they were hypothetical questions but that did not stop Conservative posters making the same claims then as they are now .
62 - They’re referring to Huhne’s allegations that Labour fixed a planning inquiry after they received an anonymous donation.
A few people seem to be assuming this poll is the limit of how high the Tories can go and how low Labour will go. As though Labour are at their floor. Well, IMO, Labour are not at their floor, and all this poll really tells us is that the government are becoming increasingly unpopular and the Tories increasingly popular, but as far as the numbers go, things will get WORSE for Labour over the next month. You cna guarantee it!
Can someone give me a link about the Peter Hain donation?
68 - Is he saying that Mendelsohn is “the fifth man”?
71. Thanks - I skim read the letter and missed that first time round.
73 - Mentioned in this beeb article
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7119605.stm
Sir Ian Blair’s letter to Huhne is a raspberry from inside the bunker directed at the whole world outside. He is obviously very confident of his political support.
39. The “source” will be many media interns spending all hours since this story broke trying to find an image of the guy and pouring over records and photographs - all in order to be the first media organisation with the images.
76-Thanks….again!
77 - No, Huhne just doesn’t understand the difference between circumstantial evidence and actual evidence.
70 - looks like you could be squids in with the property collapse!
another 80% down and you can afford to buy a one bed flat lololol etc
Flint’s not hot. She’s a cold, grating, unpleasant person with ridiculously dyed hair.
63: fair point. I remember the good old days under JM quite often pics would appear from non political sources.
The pic of him in the front row at Blair’s speech could have been highlighted by some Blairite to undermine Brown or it could have been a sharp journo in the local paper on the make. Who knows?
77 depressing to see that self-serving twit has the Queen’s Police Medal. What did he get it for? For seeing who could claim the biggest bonus?
80. Isn’t one of the police’s functions to search for evidence once a crime has been committed? We already have it, on no less authority than the Prime Minister’s, that an unlawful act has occurred. The Commissioner seems to be saying ‘Sod off - you’re just a Liberal - and with Brown and Livingstone behind me I’ve got better things to do.’
Some serious hand-wringing going on from the freedom-haters on Newsnight. Sarah Teather…shut up, eh ?
84. Even more depressing is to see him sporting his MA Oxon. I’ve got one of those, too. It cost me 12 guineas.
Sarah Teather = LOL
Back to the local Council after the next GE…..
I used think Flint was a bit of a hottie but the more I see her, the more dreaful she comes across. Never seen any evidence of a sense of humour and she would be hell to live with. Teather would be a better prospect. At least she would cook your dinner.
78etc Someone pouring over the hours video of Blair to see Abrahams in the audience without a tip off is possible, but a bit unlikely. I think a tip off from a Labour source is at least as likely. The timing is just too convenient. So I smell a rat.
Politics is not played straight behind the scenes. At least you should agree that it’s a reasonable question to ask?
80: Dont believe the American Court room dramas, Juries can and often do convict on nothing more then circumstantial evidence.
87. Here’s the proof:
Sky saying that the hot topic at Westminster tonight is the war in the Labour party. Do MPs really hang around there talking to journalists late at night ? Anyway, as the only begetter of the 3 stages of a Labour poster, I must say that I am very disappointed that not one of our friends has said tonight that this used to be a good betting site. Goodnight.
61. If a Scots Labour opposition spokesman resigns over an illegal £950 donation, how can a UK Labour government minister survive an illegal £5,000 donation (and total sums involving £650,000)?
QT: Nick Farage seems to be dressed in all blue unlike Alan Duncan. A political statement, perhaps?
Is this serious?
“The benefits of being Mr Bean”
“But wait � is being Bean such a bad thing to be? Isn’t he, like it or not, an emblem of Mr Brown’s central political theme: Britishness?”
“He is modest, yet wildly successful. Wouldn’t Mr Brown want a bit of that? Or at least, it’s a better legacy than a Russian genocidal maniac.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article2970941.ece
88. Surely she should return to school to finish her A levels first?
51. Good letter from Sir Ian Blair to Chris Huhne. In short ‘Don’t involve the police in your publicity stunts. If you’ve got ant evidence of crooked planning applications please supply them to the Durham force-now F off!’.
You can’t treat a busy police force as your own private detective agency!
95. I hope Alan Duncan wasn’t in pink this early in the evening.
97: lol etc
total lab/ld meltdown!
Where’s dan?
98. If the Met are too busy to investigate corruption at the highest level why not a different force? The City Police have long experience of this sort of caper.
90. Certainly reasonable to ask - but I just think a rat would have provided something a bit more meaty than he was in Blair’s audience.
98 Roger is mad as a box of frogs. The likes of Nick Palmer and Roger’s denial is essential if we are to see Labour reach 19% at the next GE.
With Labour on the way out, Ian Blair must be making plans for his future
100 Dan’s a racist. After advising Mugabe on how to deny democracy to Black Zimbabweans, he is probably advising Brown on how to implement Mugabe Democracy.
Jonathan Aitken’s determined attempts at re-habilitation don’t help the Tories either. He’s popping up again tonight on This Week…
From a near suicidal labour member to the host of Tories on this site who are wetting themselves at the mess we are in,enjoy the moment.
I still cannot understand how and why donations to your Party from expats channeled through 3rd parties are not suspect and to the Lib Dems count yourself lucky that the £2.5 million you got did not land you in the mess we are in.
Your time will come!
Ah, right, clarification, to what i posted earlier.
Abrahams rang Leslie and told him that he had a friend who was willing to make a donation to the Brown camp. Leslie says that he didn’t realise that this “friend” was actually a proxy for Abrahams himself. Then the Brown campaign rejected the cheque because they didn’t know who Janet Kidd was.
Diane Abbott: Mendelsohn is the new Lord Levy….
105 - which donations are you referring to?
107 - She has also called for him to go.
105 Enjoy the moment? Enjoy the next GE.
Labour has absolutely no shame. They ignore the people at their own risk.
If Labour thinks they lost a lot of councilors last time, they aint seen nuffing yet.
Next GE = total labour clearout!
Con gain Tonypandy
Has some This Week researcher confused Mr Benn & Mr Bean, or is that deliberate? I suppose it would be hard for Kevin Maguire to discuss the week’s developments in the character of the latter.
Rochdale- North Middleton byelection
Lab 603
LD 566
Con 280
turnout 18,3%
(May 2007: Lab 921, COn 552, LD 319)
Very good LD result
110,As a Labourite,my blood runs cold at the thought of next May’s local elections..
113 - we felt sorry for Con and Lab and took it easy there…….
Harman blames Brown!
http://news.sky.com/skynews/picture_gallery/picture_gallery/0,,70141-1295069-8,00.html
Real election result Oldham MBC Middleton North Labour just hang on Conservative vote collapses to 3rd place Lab 603 LibDem 566 Con 280 - May result Lab 921 Con 552 LibDem 319
114-follow-on-in view of the Tories winnig a 4th term being their worst mishap,maybe long-run it would NOT be a bad thing for Labour to lose,probably narrowly,next time-let the Tories take the national rein,and I bet within 2 years max something of Black Wednesday magnitiude would destroy their credibility-cue another 3 Labour terms
Labour are doing well in these elections! Tories pants. What’s going on.
I fully accept that even 2 years away the next GE is looking very black (or should I say blue) for labour.
However, there are no brown envelopes here,(as far as I can make out) as there were in the 90’s for you Tories.
111
Whilst I realise that you are hyperventilating with excitement at the mo,I think the boyos from Tonypandy have got more senses than to vote Tory.They have very long memories.
117. Isn’t it Rochdale?
Lab and Con down around 10% and LD up around 20%
117: So plenty of Con-LD TV to be expected at the next GE, but no sign yet of vice-versa?
117 - enjoy it mark. LD = local council party!
118 - there wont be three Lab GE wins in the next 100 years!
QT: Some good comment made but Caroline Flint has to get away from looking like Morticia from The Addams Family. Sarah Teather needs a make-over. Alan Duncan may have had one but still needs a new haircut and Nick Farage reminds me of Archie Andrews at times.
Latest on Rik W. Looking at Reading Chronicle it seems to have blown over. He made some sort of apology and there are supportive things in the letters page from known (Tory) names.
It’s pretty much old news.
Patrick. Thank you for you honesty.
Perhaps Labour isnt just an army of NuLab Stormtrooper Clones.
Perhaps there is hope for Labour after all.
124 - he’s NIGEL not Nick Farage.
119 Labour are doing well in these elections! Tories pants. What’s going on.
Conservatives are all at home glued to google. Probably explains the 18% turnout.
121 Oopps yes Rochdale MBC Heywood and Middleton Constituency .
128 - YouTube
Is Rochdale run by a Tory / Labour coalition?
Right, can we have no more developments for another week now, please?
I’ve got things to do.
Right I’m heading off for the evening. God knows what new snippets will emerge overnight. I look forward to finding out!
Local paper suggests that the Rochdale byelection was hardly fought just by Lab and LD with Con running a low key campaign
http://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/News/news.asp?ID=5047
134: ah thanks - 115 is right.
Ave it knows everything…..
124. A Sarah Teather makeover would require Trinny, Susannah, the entire cast of Nip/Tuck and a magic f—ing wand.
Valleyboy at 120,
You seem to be unaware of the prosecution of Danny Meikle for racial abuse (use of the word boyo to describe a Welshman).
Inevitably enough, Danny was a Labour councillor and he was abusing a constituent.
All this talk of Tonypandy Tories…
wasn’t speaker George Thomas rather too kind to the Tories during his tenure?
138 - before my time hehehehehe! (Sort of)
Con gain wales
GN all
Jeez, I just got in and read Mike’s. ‘Yes’, I thought, ‘Mike’s got that about right; spreads will shift a little’.
Then I checked SI. A stonking 4 point shift.
Am I happy bunny? U bet!
:-) 
:-)
138 - George Thomas was a true patriot whose twilight years were devoted to an eloquent defence of Parliamentary sovereignty in the face of the inexorable rise of the EU.
RIP
123,As I am approching my 37th birthday,and I am unaware of your age,I strongly suspect that neither you or I will still blogging here in November 2107:lol:
Result from Cobham Fairmile (Elmbridge BC in Surrey) was (thankfully) a Con landslide:
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 9
:) 
Independent 18
Labour 38
Independent 32
Lib-Dem 45
Conservative 418
“Labour must go on the offensive to get out of this vortex of failure”
By Polly Toynbee
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2219632,00.html
Re 127 - I stand corrected SBS but I’m sure I’ve heard him referred to as Nick before. Some Nigels are nicknamed Nick as was someone I used to know. I thought he did well on QT. Can’t understand why UKIP aren’t doing better in the polls given his calibre.
Re 136 - LOL. I was being diplomatic but that’s what I was thinking!
145. I thought that was Gordon’s plan this week?
er 144. rather
143 Getting a bit marginal in Cobham these days, John O.
Congrats to you and your team.
(How are there 38 Labour votes in Cobham?)
148. “(How are there 38 Labour votes in Cobham?) ”
Peter, when I looked at today’s byelection and thought about the last 2 weeks ago, I thought “Gosh, Labour is going to poll 0 votes today!”
148 - I know, I know, we were confidently predicting 120%. Oh we love and treasure our Labour voters
“(…)respected commentators sonorously inform their readers that it isn’t over yet; that with 30 months before the general election need be held, Gordon has time to turn things around if he gets a grip now.
But he doesn’t, and they know he doesn’t. On some level he must know it himself.”
And he has been reading pb.com:
“That is why Gordon, unjustly associated with this latest cock-up and most unfairly attacked on integrity grounds by David Cameron, is so irredeemably finished that the only sensible option open to him is to resign; and let David Miliband or Alan Johnson (or even that cunning old vixen Jack Straw, whose chirpiness bespeaks the ambition, continuing our theatrical theme, to star as The Caretaker) take on the thankless challenge of damage limitation in time for the election.”
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/matthew_norman/article3209843.ece
149 Andrea
You of course don’t know the area. I lived fairly close, but as a Leftie, I was only allowed to pass through - not to stop.
152 - But we do welcome you with open arms (and wallets) to Esher
152. Peter, the 38 voters may be some dodgy donors
150 Seriously John, you must be very pleased. I’m happy for you.
It doesn’t seem so long ago when we were at Sandown and you were in ‘grin and bear’ it mode. How things have changed!
Btw, I shall be at Sandown again Saturday week for the Tingle Creek meeting. The main event, the 2m Chase, is the best race outside the Cheltgenham Festival. No chance I’ll see you there?
154 Andrea
The local Tories are in fact very gentle and kind. They probably keep those 38 as a protected species.
Did no one notice Cameron’s intervention on the 9 O’Clock Sky Bulletin; looking very presidential with a White House backdrop crowing about how he was right about how the police should be called in and that Mandy bloke whose name I can’t recall now should be sacked. DC would not have not commented about these matters from Washington unless he thought that the endgame commeth.
153 LOL! As I said, I can’t but be pleased for you. I know how much you and many like you put into the local constituencies.
157. Cameron is playing a blinder at the moment. Going to Washington and looking statesmanlike in a week when the government was going to hell, was a masterstroke of great luck. In the summer Cameron had rotten luck with his Rwanda trip. This time, he couldn’t have timed his visit better.
155 - Peter, Thanks. My own contribution this time was quite limited but the team will be delighted. Hmmm, might indeed have another flutter after the summer fun with you!!
159. Yesterday you could get 80/1 on Brown out by the end of the year. Hills now have it at 50/1. Value bet or what Nigella?
Just got in after a drive down from Yorkshire - amazed how little there has been on PB.com this evening on Hain’s admission of non-disclosure re the funds he accepted for his deputy leadership campaign, which even biased BBC Radio think is a big story.
160 I’ll put up a tip for the big race on here. Have a couple of quid on it. Saturday week.
Atb.
163. Will do. Oh yes
Ta!!
161 Yes, thanks to stjohn, I took a few quid’s worth of this at 80-1 - mainly defensively as my main bet was for him to go next year at 16-1 (18-1 on Tuesday), but couldn’t stand the thought of losing out if he didn’t last until the end of 2007!
I doubt Brown will be out before the end of the year. In the end, he isn’t personally implicated in any of this farce, so he’s safe for now.
What happens to him if Labour suffers a 1995/1996 style meltdown at the local elections in May 2008 is another matter entirely.
163 PtP, if you’re still there, on the GE Labour Seats market, are you betting exclusively on Spreadfair?
Matthew Norman in the Independent has this article titled For Gordon Brown, this really is Terminal.
It ends on the following note.
Gordon will do no such thing, of course, because he is who he is… the Shakespearean tragic hero who misread the map, and ended up not in Stratford, but with his trousers round his ankles on stage at the Whitehall Theatre. Or rather, as the venerable home of farce has renamed itself, Trafalgar Studios, bringing to mind a one-eyed British hero who had no sooner won his great battle to see off an old and hated foe than he keeled over, mortally wounded. Remind you of anyone?
166
Well, let’s hope so for his sake, otherwise it really is curtains!
166. I agree on Gordon staying the course. They won’t get ride of him, not from any sense of probity or loyalty, as your average MP has the integrity of a jackal in the last stages of dying from West Nile virus, but simply because the Labour party procedures make it too hard to defenestrate an under-performing leader.
168-post 151- =)
I am a neophyte in these things but so far as I can see Hills have closed their book for all UK political betting. Brown toast?
167 No, PfP, in effect only on SI.
I have a £60 buy of Labour at 314.8 with S-fair = provisional loss of £2,838. With SI, I have sells of Labour and buys of Conservatives giving a net provisional gain of £3,150.
I’m thinking of closing out the gains, wholly or in part, and leaving the losses in play. What do you think?
At present, I can’t play on S-fair without first clearing the open position, which would be stupid, quite apart from the cash flow considerations.
171 No, they usually close them around 6pm, and reopen the next day pbr.
171. thanks babe
Doh! Can’t get the hang of this site. Obviously meant 173. Durrrr
170) Missed that, sorry!
176-No problem, it’s hard to keep up with so many comments and news!
171 & 173 No, as I reported earlier this morning, Hills appear to have completely pulled the “Year in Which Brown Leaves Office”.
I personally doubt the Labour GE Seats position will get much worse, short of Brown resigning which aint going to happen in the short term - so I think your suggested strategy is a good one. Speaking of Spreadfair, they appear to be the market leaders in providing spreads on the Halifax House Price Index, on which I have posted here and have a series of open bets. I see two national newspapers are leading on this tomorrow - likely to become a hot potato next year IMHO.
178 Thanks PfP. Hope you didn’t mind me running it past you. The numbers are quite big and I appreciate a second opinion.
I’m perfectly clear in my own mind what the right strategy is here. I’ll cash in about 75% of the winning positions and hold the rest as insurance against Labour seats dropping through the floor.
My guess is the Labour price is pretty close to the bottom now, but with all this bad news coming from all directions, you can’t be sure.
Cheers…and good nite.
Oh, PfP, sorry I can’t help you on the the Price Index.
Don’t do financial markets.
The BBC’s web site has a photo of Peter Watt and David Abrahams standing next to each other. Doesn’t look right to me. Abrahams head doesn’t look like it belongs to his body as if it was a doctored photo. Take a look.