Thursday’s continuation thread
November 29th, 2007
To ease pressure on the server can we continue our discussions here.
Mike Smithson
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To ease pressure on the server can we continue our discussions here.
Mike Smithson
They still can’t sack my Harriet - she’s too lovely for them to do that.
1.Hear hear
where is david herdson so we can make it a 1-2-3?
With what has been going on during the last few days, you certainly need heavy duty servers!
What will be next??
Wednesday?
440. (from last thread) You could be right, the mud could stick but on the othewr hand, an alternative view could be spun that the sleaze was part of the problem Brown had with Blair.
Already some are starting to use it. By culling the suspects early and disassociating himself fully with the matter he could draw a line under it so it does not continue to taint his premiership. In two years (without any other scandal of this sort) he might be able to get away with it.
Of course thats if he can disassociate himslef from it?
They used to say, when Aston Villa were in the old third division (?), that the fans would turn out to watch 11 claret and blue shirts hanging on the line. Is this site so popular now that you can stick up a photo of the Houses of Parliament and just leave us to it ?
O/T but from Pepys Diary the other day.
http://www.pepysdiary.com/
“Up and at my office all the morning, to prepare an account of the charge we have been put to extraordinary by the Dutch already; and I have brought it to appear 852,700l.; but God knows this is only a scare to the Parliament, to make them give the more money.”
“plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose”
re 5. Things are moving to fast that I’ve forgotten what day it. Thanks and corrected.
6. No chance - the people involved are too close to him and can dish the dirt on him in return if necessary.
Meanwhile - come on the Danes of Aalborg!
New twist. Harriet Harman knew that Gordon Brown had turned down Kidd donation. Ball’s back in her court…
Harman’s team knew that Brown had turned down the Kidd donation. Oh dear.
11 - Damn beaten too it.
This really could poison the Labour party for many years. I do think though that it is very definitely the government and not the Labour Party that is unpopular. That won’t help the party at the moment but after they get totally crushed in an election it does mean they can rebuild.
The country still needs a Labour/centre left party - only a real one, not a statist authoritarian ineptly corrupt version.
She’s dead.
6/10 - that’s my point. EVEN if nobody’s got anything on him on Party funding, he has too much history at the top to just start sacking people all over the place. Anyone who’s been at the top for that long will have damaging stories of various degrees about them.
11/12 now it’s open warfare!! that didn’t take long.
2/15 - Commiserations Tyson.
17 - This is going to make the Conservative Civil war look like a tiff at a tea party.
17
CND will have to be resurrected: Campaign for New Donors.
Can’t see existing Donors being very happy.
Will the Labour Party go bust?
This whole story is a typical Labour ploy to divert attention from Cameron’s meeting with Bush.
This week reminds me of Angus Deayton of Have I got News for you. He tried to brave it out but he had lost all credibility and had to go.
Surprisingly, the BBC, Micheal White & the Sun is backing Brown and Labour. But they are outweighed by the combined weight of ITN, Mail, Telegraph, Daily Politics and - surprisingly enough again - the Independent, Guardian.
Question Time will give members of the public the opportunity to show their feelings.
Anyone got to a link to the bit that Harriet knew that Brown had turned down Kidd, please ?
How on earth can Labour recover from this? The Conservatives sank throughout the 1992-1997 parliament and were in decline for a period of four years. Labour’s disaster has come upon them in a period of about six weeks.
Once the Media and the public turn against them it will be so hard to come back with anything and be beleived. They are in bigger trouble than they know.
I have sympathy with the decent Labourites who must be as aghast as we were when it was all going wrong before 1997!
16. Again I don’t disagree with you but I still think there is a chance that some others may be persuaded to fall on their swords?
Personally I hope they implode but certainly that’s not on the cards quite yet.
14 - That is my reading KB. Although as i said on previous thread i don’t think it is actually impossible that they could recover with the right leader before the next election. Of course the great unknown is if it would actually be possible for Brown to “disappear” without enormous recriminations in the Labour Party. The other is whether they could have the imagination to go for the “clean break” candidate, as opposed to the “safe pair of hands” one.
If Brown did go, it is also possible that we would have to have an election.
Follow the money, follow the money.
24 - I make a similar point on my blog!
“Surprisingly, the BBC, Micheal White & the Sun is backing Brown and Labour. But they are outweighed by the combined weight of ITN, Mail, Telegraph, Daily Politics and - surprisingly enough again - the Independent”
What is surprising about the Indy opposing Labour?
If Iain Dales figures are correct, the answer must be in the detail. There must be some horrendous figures within. I am beginning to wonder if the floor for Labour Support is 30-32% and that in order to win big, the Conservatives will have to be at 45% or greater. After all thats happened after this week, it would be hard to imagine worse press for Labour, or will the weekend bring worse news poll-wise???
23. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aB_8LL4FtzBE&refer=uk
But Leslie apparently has said he was pointed to Kidd by Abrahams, yet Leslie (in all seriousness) pleads ignorance of their connection…
Go figure…
28 James - Yes indeed! Good blog!
Is Leslie a PPC?
24/28 - I think you underestimate the potential healing power of a new Government. The mistake the Tories made in 92-97 was they didn’t try it. Nothing but an interesting counter-factual, but things could have been different if Major had fallen on his sword. Maybe that’s far fetched because of the ideological differences which split the Tories, but there are no such splits within Labour now.
Yeah, this looks like a terminal decline to me now as well. The only thing Labour could try is ditching Brown and going for someone like Jack Straw to see them through the election, but that could be messy, and leave a lot of blood on the carpet, with no guarantee that the end result would be any differant.
Any by-election results tonight?
34. And who would have led them to victory? Portillo? LOL Redwood? BEHAVE…
I wouldn’t say the Sun is backing Labour by any means. It has been very critical while slighly morose. Its a very similar editorial reaction to the crises during the Major years…until they switched in 1997.
30. I would suggest this weeks news has hardly filtered through the polls, and they are mainly reflecting the datagate fiasco. In other words, expect Labour’s position to continue to worsen throughout the rest of December.
29 “What is surprising about the Indy opposing Labour?”
In Soviet times the joke ran “There is no news in Pravda and no truth in Izvestia”.
35. (Almost) the whole crew is riddled with scurvy….
only Johnson seems “clean”
Portillo, Heseltine, Clarke? Who knows. Take away the issue of Europe, and i don’t think it’s far-fetched. Labour’s victory certainly wouldn’t have been as large.
28
James good blog
Just saw the Miliband quote “in 6 -12 months people will be wanting Blair back again”
Very shrewd.
Can I repeat my correction in the earlier thread, Iain Dale’s YGg figures ARE correct
34 Alex - An interesting point but for it to work Gordon Brown and many of the Cabinet would have to go, which would cause an enourmous vacuum in the heart of Government, as well as running the risk of a massive split in the Labour Party.
The problem here is that no one (in any Party) expected this and all the other things to happen as quickly or at all and the PM simply won’t address the problems in any meaningful way.
Gordon Brown was elected unopposed, making it very difficult to see any successor. These last few weeks really has seen political history being made and I doubt it’s over yet!
If Miliband could control his lopsided sneer he would be odds on.
40 - Most of the Cabinet is completely untainted, if inexperienced. A few have had a few troubles in their first few months but nothing remotely terminal.
Few are currently leadership potential, but you only need one leader.
36 Pity I cant find the YouTube link of Portillo asking a teenager would she vote Conservative. Her answer was “Well I would for you big boy”.
I think recent events and disclosures still to come will do major medium term damage to Labour. They may recover a little before the next GE but then much of the tactical voting will be anti Labour (similar to the Anti Tory vote in 1997). Labour may at the next GE be close to the LD’s be in the mid 20’s with the Tories close to 45% with the Nats doing well in Scotland. I have yet to put this through the Baxter and Wells predictors but suspect this forecast would result in a convincing overall majority for the Tories.
30. MTF As I posted at the weekend potentially a 43% national poll for the Conservatives could equate to a 45%-47% poll in England, given the differences in voting patterns in the three home countries.
My guess is that if the Conservatives are polling 40% or more nationally then Labour are in trouble in England (unless there is a massive recovery north of the border and in Wales for the Conservatives)
I think the YouGov poll is the one I completed last weekend for Monday morning.
There was a question on leadership competence iirc.
Anthony King, a consistently anti-tory commentator (IMHO) calls it devastating … but 43-32-14 doesn’t seem too awful, apart from the Tory breakaway from the 40pc box. I thought King could proclaim a tory metldown from a 60-20-10 poll for the Tories but maybe he’s on the turn in his old age?
Never enjoyed politics as much as this. I don’t see how Brown can possibly disassociate himself from this. They are all the people closest to him.
31 - That say - among other things - “Harman said her team had been pointed toward Kidd by Brown’s campaign coordinator, Chris Leslie. Harman had asked for advice on who might be able to help fund her successful deputy leadership campaign.
Leslie issued a statement saying he had been unaware that Kidd had been channeling money from Abrahams. Kidd had offered money to the Brown leadership campaign and been rejected because nobody on Brown’s team knew who she was, Leslie said.”
At no point does it say that Harriet’s team knew that Brown had turned Kidd down. There’s another more sinister interpreation. Brown’s team turned the money from Kidd down and then directed Harriet to her. What’s that all about ?
38 I suppose I was expecting some form of immediacy as in the petrol tanker drivers strike which immediately affected the polls, but in this instance it doesn’t hit the voters immediately in the pocket, so it may take a little longer/….
I heard an MP called Dismore on the radio earlier who said this business had a nasty tone of anti semitism about it. The interviewer asked him what he meant and he cited photographs and cartoons of Abrahams and Mendelson. The interviewer pointed out that there had also been cartoons and photographs of Harman and Brown and surely showing the main players was a reasonable thing to do? Dismore then said the same thing had happened to Lord Levy.
It reminded me of the story of the man who had got the sleeper to Glasgow and when he arrived his wife asked him if he had a good journey. ‘No it was awful I met an anti semite on the train who wouldn’t let me borrow his toothbrush’.
Good news about the Teddy. I hear they’re not hanging him just cutting off his paws.
43-32-14 ARE the figures and no amount of spin can make YG’s biggest ever Tory lead anything other than horrible for Labour (ask King)
53 - It was reported on the BBC that Harman’s team knew the donation had been turned down.
SKY: talk of cheques being “torn-up” by Leslie, yet Harman being pushed towards the same donor. Labour MPs voice scepticism..
It’s like watching bacteria in a Petri dish, innit?
34. You ignore the personality splits which are likely to become more obvious now Labour is against the ropes. M
56 - Con could be on nearly 50% in England!
56 - definitely good for the Tories but not “devastating” surely? Unless there’s more to the individual figures (e.g. competence)
59 - To be fair i didn’t. I fully accept there are many obstacles to the course that i suggest working. As i said the unknowns are whether it would even be possible without massive recriminations, an whether there would have to be an immediate election.
But it is possible that it could work for the reasons stated:
- unpopularity is with the Govt, not the Labour Party
- no ideological splits
- people have not formed a clear judgement on the prospect of a Conservative govt
I read, I listen, I hear. Intellectually, I see a hung parliament; perhaps even a small Tory majority. But deep down, in my guts I find it hard to feel anything other than a Labour victory.
56: so the Lib Dem recovery didn’t come to much then. What were they on in the last YouGov?
61 The only way I can see devastating , if not in the detaiil, is by comparison with the poll just before “the election that never was” where Labour supposely had a double digit lead. By comparison it is devastating, though I never believed that poll
LD back down there where they belong.
LD
BTW, amid all the excitement, did anyone last night catch the story potentially brewing in Northern Island. Something about a murder connected to members of the IRA.
Shaun Woodward was being interviewed and refused to rule out the possibility of direct rule being reimposed.
This is the big danger when the Prime Minister is so pre-occupied as he is at the moment. Cabinet ministers are left running their departments on their own, and if a problem that they can’t handle on their own arises then nobody will pick it up until it’s too late.
Allow me, Ave It:
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
“Open Warfare”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/29/nbrown1629.xml
67 Alex - Precisely why this whole snafu is so damaging. If something bad happens while everyone in Government has their eyes off the ball…
43% is a high number for the Conservatives to be on with pollsters like YouGov, thats probably what Professor King was refering to. For a long time people said the Conservatives needed to be polling around 40% to be in with a shout at an election. Now we have them heading up towards the mid 40’s. For Labour, this is pretty devastating
When asked by the Daily Telegraph how many times he had met Mr Brown, Mr Abrahams said: “You don’t remember how many times you’ve eaten porridge for breakfast.”
Hell hath no fury like a donor scorned….
71 - And things have got worse since the data stopped being gathered.
69 - OK, so Harman’s hit a solid cross court backhand, with a bit of underspin.
Back in Brown’s court…
Are we happy that these figures are correct, or are we still working off Iain Dale’s conjecture?
I would say this is a pretty good poll for Labour. When Maggie was in trouble you couldn’t find anyone of sound mind who would admit that they’d be voting for her. Cameron’s mob obviously are still a long way from capturing the public’s imagination and however frayed the government look people still aren’t prepared to write them off.
69/74 - For those not following the link:
” Sources close to Ms Harman claimed that Mrs Kidd had approached the deputy leader’s office after they contacted Mr Leslie, a former junior minister who is married to one of Mr Brown’s former aides.
Ms Harman’s team allege they have a covering letter from Mrs Kidd when she sent the cheque which says: “further to a conversation with Chris Leslie…”
73 James. Exactly. We’ve talked about this before. There a time lag between an event happening and the effect being seen in polls. This YouGov poll, if it was carried out on Monday, probably doesn’t even reflect donergate, and is more than likely a reflection of datagate (which itself probably hasn’t finished filltering thrugh the public’s mind)
No doubt on the personal ratings the credibility of Brown and Labour is also contuining its freefall from September.
76 Roger - Don’t forget that seven weeks ago Gordon was about to go for an Election he and everyone else thought he would easily win!
76. “I would say this is a pretty good poll for Labour.”
Rog, you’re priceless!
79 - God he must be kicking everyone for that!
76. LOL! I’m speechless!
the YG figures will be released in 5 mins and contrary to early info iain dale’s figures are right
76: Roger how many points do Labour have to be behind for things to be bad?
71. From what I can see an 11% lead for the Conservatives is the biggest lead that the Conservatives have ever had in a Yougov poll and 43% is the highest the Conservatives have ever polled with Yougov.
80 et al - I can kind of see where he’s coming from - the bottom hasn’t fallen out of the Labour vote the way it supposedly did for us in the mid-90s
Of course you’re not comparing like with like because methodologies have changed so much and those polls were obviously WAYYYYYYY wide of the mark
We haven’t really seen the “close to an election government bounce” that we saw when the Tories were in power, in fact if anything we’ve continually seen a small Tory rise as polling day approaches, so it’s bad for Labour but the figures aren’t the melt-downs we’ve seen in the past
76 - LOLOL etc - see Antony 68
85, Yes. At this rate the only seat Labour will hold is Broxtowe.
Roger 76. That is complete rubbish. In 1990 in the run-up to Maggie’s departure her party was polling in the range of 31.5%-38% which is substantially better then Labour is doing at the moment.
86. Quite agree it’s not a meltdown, and that Labour will recover - to some extent. Just had a little giggle fit at Roger’s claim that it was a good poll for Labour, when it clearly isn’t.
re 89. See here for 1990 poll figures -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992/
“it’s bad for Labour but the figures aren’t the melt-downs we’ve seen in the past…”
YET!
86 - I don’t know why everyone compares with how the Tories are doing in the mid nineties. After all Labour did end up with a majority of 180. So a bit of leeway to be doing worse
If anything (and making allowance for methodology changes) it’s the polls in the 87-92 period which you need to compare with.
Iain Dale has an explosive blog about Harman. Apparantly will be on Newsnight too.
hadnt had time to read it but…
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/HMRC%20for%20website.pdf
Looks like Gordon won’t have to return that backhand (er).
95 - isn’t that the C4 one from last week?
Of course things aren’t good for Labour-but this poll was taken in the eye of the storm. These figures are comparable to Blair’s on any average day.
Anyway Radio 4 is going to investigate the whole business in half an hour so hopefully I’ll be up to speed again. It’s frustrating not even knowing who Mr Leslie is!
95 - That’s last weeks poll.
L
O
L
76. Roger you obviously don’t care to recognise several key points.
1.With YouGov Labour were ahead in early October.
2. Then Anthony King suggested the Tories would struggle to reach 40%.
3.The latest poll does not take account of much of the recent bad news for Labour and there is usually a lag in the polls in picking up bad news.
4. You should know morale in Labour is at a very low level and many supporters have left the party recently.
98 - Roger i know you probably object in principle, but you might want to check Iain Dale’s blog. It looks like your friend might have had an invite to a Christmas Party.
egg on face…………
Iain Dale reckons HH is toast. Undisclosed loan allegations on Newsnight tonight.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/11/newsnight-allegations-mean-harman.html
Did anyone else not know that Question Time isn’t a Live Broadcast? I genuinely didn’t know that.
Radio 4 just had a linking piece “it appears Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman are now at each other’s throats….”
Somehow, I don’t think this Humpty-Dumpty government will ever be put back together
106. Mr and Mrs Awkward fall out! I love it!
43, 32, 14 confirmed
Is there some law that prevents politicians in this country from funding their own election campaigns? I can’t believe that Harman and Dromey are so destitute that they needed to wander about begging for money.
105- its filmed an hour before it goes out on television, to allow for any rude language etc to be edited out first.
It’s great to know that Labour is now at the bottom of the same barrel as the Tories.
It couldn’t happen to two nastier parties.
102. Thanks alex. I really don’t post that kind of thing on here unless I’ve been told something by someone reliable. She called to talk to me about something completely different but she really does know everyone!
Sky News is reporting a Telegraph poll showing Con lead of 11
113. see 108 for full figures
110 “to allow for any rude language, worthwhile/biting/humorous contributions from the Tory spokesperson and their consequent applause etc to be edited out first.”
Anthony King says:
YouGov’s latest findings for The Daily Telegraph are among the most devastating for any Government in the history of opinion polling.
One has to go back to the last days of the late-1970s Callaghan administration or the late-1990s Major administration to find any parallel.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=MYLBNIXSWDAFFQFIQMFCFGGAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/11/30/npoll230.xml
111 - “It’s great to know that Labour is now at the bottom of the same barrel as the Tories. It couldn’t happen to two nastier parties.”
During the Cold War we used to describe that kind of comment as ‘moral equivalence’; an attempt to muddy the ethical waters and spread the blame for wrongdoing.
Roger is like Comical Ali.
“We are beating them. We are fighting them. Our stormtroopers are leafleting them as we speak”
Reports say the police are knocking at the door
“No, no. It is not true. We are beating them, we are…”
What’s that behind you?
“Gor struth. I must leave now”
From King’s analysis
“The headline figures are bad enough for Labour. The underlying figures are even worse and hint that a majority of voters may have fallen out of love permanently with the Brown Government.
Just a month ago Labour still enjoyed a narrow lead when respondents were asked to say which of the two major parties they would prefer to see in power after the next election. YouGov’s respondents now put the Conservatives seven points ahead.
The proportion of voters satisfied with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister has also fallen from 34 per cent last month - and more than 40 per cent during the summer - to a miserable 23 per cent now.
No fewer than 89 per cent of voters believe ministers have mishandled the loss of computer discs containing 25 million people’s personal data.
Almost as many, 78 per cent, accuse the Government of mismanagement in connection with its handling of immigration and asylum and more than 60 per cent take the same dim view of ministers’ handling of the criminal justice system and the armed forces.
On the issue of Northern Rock, more than half of those interviewed reckon the Government’s performance has been “poor” (25 per cent) or “awful” (29 per cent) and two thirds, 68 per cent, say they are “not very confident” (39 per cent) or “not at all confident” (39 per cent) that the Government and taxpayers will get all or most of their money back.”
116 - My God those underlying figures are incredible.
Anthony King really wasn’t exaggerating. The headline figures really are incredibly good considering what lies underneath. (that can only be because of the presence of the Conservatives as an alternative that keeps some Labour voters loyal).
Brown is rated as worse than John Major. And most cabinet ministers are worse!
Once again, Gordon has taken a mere fiasco (ourfriendsinthenorthgate) and turned it into a farrago (open warfare with Harridan Harman) by being an indecisive poltroon. He should have either unequivocally backed her or had her taken outside and shot sending the bill for the bullet to her slapheaded husband.
So Iain Dale was spot on again with this poll as he was with Com Res the other day. He has good sources and he should be listened to.
Darling -42
Browne -61 (!)
89% say Govt has mishandled data fiasco
52% “couldn’t run a whelk stall”
112
‘She called to talk to me about something completely different but she really does know everyone!’
Your cleaning lady?
No mention of donations in analysis. More fun to come.
120 “Brown is rated as worse than John Major”
Actually that isnt possible.
If Brown is worse than Major, Labour really are in trouble.
123: lab -50 by weekend!
Con 135% Lab -50% Others 15%
!!!!!!!!!!
Incredible how much stuff isn’t getting reported amid the chaos. Apparently David Cameron has said that Western Troops should be sent into the Balkans to “prevent Russia starting another European War”.
Why do people get so excited about opinion polls when we’re probably two years away from a General Election ?
Anthony King’s best piece of analysis
A clear majority, 52 per cent, reckon the Government is incompetent and inefficient and “couldn’t run a whelk stall”.
this is what will do it for this inept bunch of chancers - ridicule and a constant stream of incompetence stories. It might be better to go fo an early election and have a clear out at the top rather than drag it out for another two years and get totally stuffed.
How do you think Gordon will react when he is asked whether he can run a whelk stall at PMQ’s
Someone is going to ask surely!
117
History tells us that the bad guys are the bad guys at different times. It was the Tories, now it’s Labour and next ….it will be the Tories again.
At heart they are bad guys ALL THE TIME, but it’s awful hard to pick on them both at the same time. They just take turns at being caught out. This time it’s Labour, next the Tories and so on and so on and so on.
What is a “whelk stall”?
A stall in this sense is a small booth or stand from which one does trade (as in market stall). A whelk stall is therefore one that sells whelks, a whelk being some unfortunate marine mollusc that’s used as a foodstuff in Europe. They’re a traditional feature in the UK, and whelk stalls can be found here to this day in the UK, mainly in seaside towns. I have no idea how the whelks they sell are prepared for eating, but having tried one once, I can confirm that they taste like gritty bits of soft rubber pickled in strong vinegar. A whelk stall is also liable to offer cockles and mussels for sale, and maybe prawns and jellied eels as well.
Figuratively a whelk stall can also mean a very small and humble commercial enterprise that therefore should be extremely simple to operate and run - there’s a dismissive British expression “he’s not even fit to run a whelk stall” that’s frequently used to this day. This seems allegedly to have been coined by Winston Churchill who, when attacking the opposition during a Parliamentiary debate, stated that they “were not fit to manage a whelk stall”.
Headlines on radio 4 don’t sound good for HH or GB. They sound like 2 ferrets in a sack
131. A whelk-stall? They couldn’t run a bath….
129 The Berlin Wall is falling.
It may take 2 years before the Soviets leave, but the people can smell freedom.
Lol. The Met Police have put someone in charges called (Temporary) Commander Law
BBC say that Brown’s campaign team were offered money directly by Abrahams (through Kidd). If true Gordon was lying in his Press Conference.
Actually this shouldn’t be mixed up with a joke.
BBC say that Brown’s campaign team were offered money directly by Abrahams (through Kidd). If true Gordon was lying in his Press Conference.
Is this the Smoking Gun???
119 - Also from the King article:
Despite findings like these, Conservatives should resist any temptation to put champagne on ice, let alone drink it. The Prime Minister is under no obligation to hold an election for another two and a half years
Calm down dears!
138 - Eek.
136 - on 26th September Labour was reported as having a 13-point lead. Why is a 13 point Conservative lead terminal for Labour now ?
UK Polling report confirms that most of this poll was done on Monday. More damage for Labour to come?
141 - Momentum and the fact that the news is getting worse and not better for Labour.
142 - Monday??? Opinion could have shifted 5% since then!!
141 - it’s not. However it is more difficult for the Tories to mess things up, not being liable for the Civil Service…
138. Alex. I’m watching BBC News at Ten. I haven’t heard any reference to Brown’s campaign team being offered money direct from Abrahams. If you are right this is getting very close. Brown himself could still have been unaware. If you are correct and also he was aware then surely he’s finished? I can’t see him that being the case.
Con probably quite a bit ahead now
146 - It’s possible i misheard, and maybe Nick Robinson used a strange choice of words. Is anyone watching on Digital with a rewind facility?
139. Governments only get less popular with time. I’m genuinely starting to think the best thing Labour could do for its own good now is to do a flurry of initiatives and minimise the size of their election defeat now. Two and a half years more and they will be properly stuffed for the best part of a decade.
There is I suppose one glint of hope in all this sleaze.
These donations have been going on for years so there is still a possibility that Blair and his cronies will have their collars felt. We can keep our fingers crossed at least.
146. Value to be had on an early Brown departure - 20s on Betfair by Xmas, 10-12 next two quarters. Or sell GB weeks at 110+ on spreadfair. These have to be the trades to put on now.
One thing I don’t understand is that whilst Brown admits that the money was given illegally, he wants to give it back to Abrahams. Surely Abrahams is the last one who should get it. The court should order the £600,000 handed over the public funds. I really don’t see why Abrahams should get it back, just as it was absurd Ecclestone got his money back. Where is the disincentive for these people doing this sort of thing again!
150. Well it would be a gross injustice if Brown was to be the fall guy while Blair got away scot free.
146/8 - Thinking back it’s possible that Nick Robinson said
“Brown’s team was offered money by David Abrahams, through a woman called Janet Kidd”, I can’t remember. Which obviously is a bit ambiguous, and could fit with the current claim about how events worked. I thought that Robinson mentioned a phone call though.
Then again he didn’t dwell on it so maybe i misinterpreted.
152. Surely the money should be returned to the real donor?
149 If a week is a long time in politics….two and a half years is an eternity. I remember when Margaret Thatcher was on her last legs ‘gone by Christmas’…..in 1981……I agree this is more fin de regime…..but there is still a long time to go to the election, and the PLP does not (yet) appear to have the death-wish of Major’s Tories - and so far, only Labour donation irregularities have emerged….do we really believe the other major parties have been beyond reproach….because if they haven’t, Cameron for one will be left looking rather foolish.
Catching up with the thread after being away from the computer for a while. It’s fun to see the Tory gloatathon gathering pace, with ever-wilder predictions of Tory leads, Labour down to the low 20s in third place, etc. - then a perceptible small “oh.” when the figures are much the same as the last poll, then gradually winding up again into Full Gloat.
It’s an excellent Tory poll after a terrible week for Labour. We’re 4% down on the General Election. But, um, if +2% for Tories and no change for us is the best you can do after this week and those underlying ratings, what do we need to do to give you guys a lead that you’re really confident you can hold through the next 18 months or longer?
Have fun - it’s a great poll for you - but the most colossal result in the history of polling? Pollsters do spin too, you know.
Meanwhile, Cameron has started to do the Prime Ministerial rounds:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7120011.stm
155. The real donor who made illegal loans?
@152
Maybe he hopes that Mr Abrahams can then turn around and give the money to Labour again, this time in his own name.
Weren’t the Electoral Commission going to confiscate the UKiP money they thought had been improperly donated?
Sky and the Telegraph link above had it clearer.
Abrahams to Leslie: Kidd is a donor
Leslie: Understood
(later)
Leslie to Kidd: Thanks, but no thanks…
(later)
Harman to Leslie: Know any donors?
Leslie to Harman: Try Kidd
(now)
Leslie: I didn’t know Abrahams and Kidd were linked……
(yes, you read that right!)
It would be quite amusing if when brown hands the money back, at the same time mr Abraham’s hands them back a cheque for the same amount, this time in his own name!
Is there any laws to prevent this? in the past I would trust the government not to except it on moral grounds. Obviously that no longer applies to labour. If no law doesnt prevent Abraham’s doing this, then it should be given to charity.
105 -I knew Question Time wasn’t live. I was in the audience once. It is shot early evening and goes out an hour or so later. Just had time to get home, make myself a cup of tea and watch myself complaining about that chap Brown.
157 hehehehe
Its the biggest poll shock since 1832!
The cats are chasing their tails!!
157. You sound a tad desperate to me, Nick.
re 79 I wonder what Gordon would give for 5 years and a 15 seat majority now?
Poll was conducted between 26 and 28 November.
Newspapers are beginning to look dreadful for Brown tomorrow.
re 105 having been on it yes I did.
156 - it’s probably unlikely if only because the Conservatives aren’t as desperate for the money.
Cameron’s response on Nat10 and Newsnight is very measured and very good indeed.
New thread - The YouGov poll - does it live up to its billing?
157. The gloating hasn’t even started yet. Wait till election night.
173 LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m just warming up for it
re 133 alex you don’t write Humph’s scripts on ISAHAC do you?
157. Nick, it was taken on Monday. it could get worse yet.
All this talk about ‘returning the money’ is beginning to stick in the craw.
If it was given illegally it should be impounded - just like a white van used for smuggling booze.
I’m also getting fet up with the BBC suggesting that Labour donors ‘broke the rules’. They’re not RULES, plonkers, they’re LAWS. They apply to all of us - even, in extremis, Labour donors.
176 A Conservative Government is coming.
Labour supporters with jobs at the BBC should take note.
157 Comical Ali Nick Palmer, very funny