YouGov has Clegg leading Huhne by 56%-44%
December 1st, 2007
Why PBC is breaking the embargo
A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided.
The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls when in 2001 and 2005 it got the Tory contest correct to within 1%. The firm did not do as well this June with their Labour deputy leadership surveys where it had Alan Johnson ahead. That was, however, a complicated election because of the transferable vote system amongst six candidates.
The information has been provided by Sky to Iain Dale and other journalists on an embargoed basis and he has the story all ready to release at the appointed hour (2200)
However, following some advice by a contributor on the last thread, it is possible through Google Blogs search to find the key elements of the survey.
I was not given the information from Sky and I do not feel constrained by the embargo.
Throughout the day the Clegg price has tightened on Betfair and one can only assume that news has seeped out to some punters.
When something as price sensitive as this comes out then the information should be available to everybody - not just the chosen few.
Mike Smithson
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They are nuts then. Although Huhne messed up monumentally with the Calamity Clegg thing, and I thought he was finished, he spectacularly rebounded by holding Labour to the coals on Kebab-gate (skewered by donors) when Clegg was silent and useless
I think Clegg has been right to let Cable be the leader until 15th. He has got my vote - since I told YouGov that I would probably be supporting him - well I think that is what I said! I do think computer polls should ask the same question a number of ways to weed out incompetent typists or other types of pists.
I should add that as a Tory it’s great that Cable has been by far the most effective LD and either will suffer in comparison. Time for the Orange Bookers to join us!
So the sample amounts to about 1% of the total membership - which is statistically highly significant. There would have to be a big (an improbable) late swing to Huhne if the numbers are right.
Seems Clegg’s got it in the bag then.
Where is Clegg though? Can’t take a week to write his acceptance speech?
“When something as price sensitive as this comes out then the information should be available to everybody - not just the chosen few.”
Hear, hear. When we are drowning in the subject of corruption it would be less than helpful to find certain politicos and journalists using their contacts in this way.
If that were true, Test, that would make us all equal - 3 parties with crap leaders would that be a first!
3: Indeed, keep bigging up Cable. If Clegg’s campaign is anything to go by Dave can relax.
I am sure your Mr Cameron will be over rehearsing a sound bite as we speak!
His manufactured indignation at PMQs doesn’t come across very well.
I did much the same as Iain with a blog entry earlier this week. It was literally just there for seconds but Google Blogs picks it up even if you delete it or move it back into draft. At least mine wasn’t quite in this order of a cock-up.
As a Chris Huhne fan, I welcome this news. In true Liberal Democrat style, it means I can feel free to vote for him without taking any risk that he might actually *win*!
(Excuse me while I cry…)
Incidentally, who is the Libdems Justice spokesperson and has he said anything this week?
it seems that Iain Dale’s comment about not being up with the technology in his last piece was spot on if he’s posted this already!
Actually I think this shows that things are a lot closer than many were predicting, especially given that most of the polling must have been done before Huhne reported the Labour party to the police. Clegg seems to have been completely silent over the past week - in fact the last real news update on his website was on Monday.
well Mike you’ve certainly moved the Betfair price. Clegg is in from 30/100 to 2/9 in the last half hour
the MOE is 3.74%
However, the probability that Clegg is leading is…
99.918%
All over, I’d say…
[provided those remaining to vote aren’t perversely influenced by this poll or these comments into thinking “May as well vote for the loser, then”!!!!]
I must say, however, that Huhne performed (on TV) a good deal better than I expected, and Clegg somewhat worse.
I hope Clegg can grow in the job….
I would be very relaxed if the Libdems voted for Clegg from a partisan point of view.
But putting my political anorak on, are they mad??
10% beckons then for the LDs…
Lib Dems seem to do very well without a leader - so perhaps a low key one wouldn’t be so bad! But I am sure the mantle of Lloyd George, Jo Grimond and Paddy Ashdown (to pick three at random) will transform who ever wins!!
I am just itching to use the ‘Calamity Clegg’ picture I mocked up using CorelPaint but I’ll have to wait a bit longer…
A lot of Tory nonsense here on PBC, spinning as usual, since either of Clegg and Huhne would make an extremely good leader for the Liberal Democrats. At least what they are saying makes good sense, and is entirely in tune with what the membership think.
More than anybody can say about Cameron and his Tories, eh?
But would the Lib Dem members who have signed up for You Gov necessarily be representative of the entire membership? I do but ask.
What this poll does show is that the result is close, with Clegg slightly in the lead. This election is not over and done with by any manner of means.
As a Huhne supporter I am a bit disappointed by this news. I hope we Lib Dems don’t come to regret our decision again. Huhne imo has been outstanding this week, harrying the other parties and getting us noticed (along with the excellent Vince Cable as well!).
It will be very interesting to see the full details of this survey when it comes out. I did it and it was surprisingly long. Lots of questions about which candidate do you think is the most effective on the environment, economy… as well as one asking who you would have voted for out of a long list of people who didn’t stand.
20. Statistically you are wrong.
20 yeah, we are absolutely gutted about having the best polling position in 20 years. Cameron out!
15 I think you are making the assumption this is a random sample which is very obviously not true Rod. There is no way to randomly sample the LD membership without a list (and even then it’s rather tricky).
20. Yes but the reception class don’t do stats do they?
20.Just remind where Clegg has been this week? I ask because whether he speaks sense or not is up for debate, but you would have to at least have heard him utter anything at all to make the judgement this week on the hottest issue in politics. Just remind again what Clegg’s brief is in the Libdem shadow cabinet?
You have Vince Cable hitting the headlines with his PMQ’s sound bite and Huhne popping up everywhere in the media, but where is the boy who would be King?
IIRC Fraser Nelson was a wee bit of a cheerleader for Clegg and was forecasting possible doom and gloom for the Conservatives if he was elected. He seems to be having a change of heart in this article.
20. Tressage - do you think DC has been a disaster ? He saw off Blair, caused Ming to get knifed, saw off the 2007 election, crushed the Brown bounce with the IHT masterstroke all which then caused the current implosion.
He’s had a couple of minor blips - grammer schools and hoodies - but unlike Brown he’s managed to put it behind him.
I’m not sure who could have done it better in the modern age - perhaps a young Blair ?
Perhaps you can suggest a current politician who could have led the Cons better than DC has over the last 2.25 yrs ?
re 20. A good question about whether the Lib Dem members on the YouGov lists are representative.
There was only one media commissioned poll last time and that came out before Huhne entered the race. It put Ming on 49%, Hughes on 24% and Oaten on 14%.
The actual first round result was Ming 44.7%: Huhne 32.1%: Hughes 23.2% - so it got the Hughes total spot on and showed a good level of support for Ming which was 5% more than he actually achieved.
Given that many of those who were polled last time would have been involved in this latest survey it does look as though it is reasonably accurate. Certainly I would not bet against Clegg.
25 This is the same assumption that Yougov make of their whole panel and of course it may well be incorrect and go some way to explaining the low LibDem figures in Yougov compared to all the other pollsters .
25. It must be (theoretically, at least) a random sample, what else can it be? How else could the sample find that approx 52% haven’t voted yet?
The only thing that isn’t quite clear is whether the headline figures refer to the total sampled, or just those that have voted…
The You Gov polls were out for the last Lib Dem leadership contest - I thought they over represented Huhne last time because he was doing better with the type of people who are on the You Gov panel. (He also did well with ‘bloggers’ last time).
I don’t take this poll to be an accuarte predictor but it does suggest it is not going to be the walkover that was originally predicted for Clegg.
Mike S - there is an important typo in the first paragraph of your article - it says Clegg is leading by 44%. I know most people will read the headline but you should amend this.
I doubt the Conservatives are worrying too much about the prospect of a Chris Huhne led party.
32 - 56-44 is a walkover by any political precedent.
27 Chris - O/T just returned from the SNP’s National Council meeting in Perth. The SNP have agreed that local authority groups can now talk to all parties. The debate was passionate at times. At the Tories in Dundee won’t talk to us here it will make no difference locally.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7122304.stm
Alex Salmond in his speech today dropped a hint of a new Yougov poll for Scotland would be released soon. He told the delegates that it would be ‘very good news that the lead is now double digits’ One bit he did reveal was
Which of the two Governments is doing a better job
Holyrood 57%
Westminster 11%
Neither 24%
Don’t Know 8%
35 - If that is the result then I think it would be the closest contest ever for the Lib Dems or Liberals?
31 ? How could it be a random sample. All they have found is that 52% of the YouGov panel who are LibDem members have not voted. You are assuming that the YouGov members are a randomly selected sample of the LibDem membership surely. I’m guessing they aren’t.
31 - RodCrosby
I would imagine that this is all 678, not just the people who have already voted. My impression, from this site and elsewhere, is that those who have already voted seem to have voted Clegg, and that those who have not are undecided, and I believe lean towards Huhne. Clegg was always the ‘papabile’, the annointed one, and if people haven’t voted for him yet, I can’t see them being won over this late on. Huhne still has a shot at this.
31 - RodCrosby
I would imagine that this is all 678, not just the people who have already voted. My impression, from this site and elsewhere, is that those who have already voted seem to have voted Clegg, and that those who have not are undecided, and I believe lean towards Huhne. Clegg was always the ‘papabile’, the annointed one, and if people haven’t voted for him yet, I can’t see them being won over this late on. Huhne still has a shot at this.
36. He told the delegates that it would be ‘very good news that the lead is now double digits’
That would imply the SNP approaching 40%, Lab under 30%, and the SNP looking at about 30 seat gains, almost all from Labour…
Betting update. You can still get 2-7 on Clegg with PaddyPower
37 - It would be on a par with Charles Kennedy’s victory and marginally closer than Ming’s.
Re: Rowntree Trust
“The Trust is not committed to the policies of any one political party…..”
Which hardly explains why Lib Dems get £3,7m, Burnley Lab £0.004m, Greens £0.003m and the rest £0m.
http://www.jrrt.org.uk/
Further digging vis Google reveals the rest of the Iain Dale article -
” The general public, however, is unmoved by the Lib Dem race. Asked ‘who would make a better leader of the Liberal Democrats?’ 79% said they did not know (11% chose Nick Clegg, 10% Chris Huhne).
More than three-quarters of Lib Dem members (84%) want Charles Kennedy back on the front bench. And if neither Clegg nor Huhne were standing, Kennedy is considered the ‘best of the rest’ by a third of members (34%).
Voter appeal, rather than competence or better policy programme, is key to Nick Clegg’s voting lead. Half of those polled (53%) think he has more voter-appeal than Chris Huhne who received nearly six times less votes in this area (9%). However, more members think Huhne has a better policy programme (28% to 19%).
Asked if one of the candidates is ‘significantly more competent than the other’, 60% of members say there is not much difference on competence. Paddy Ashdown is the best Liberal Democrat leader since the party was formed, according to over half of members polled (54%); followed by Charles Kennedy (37%). Most members think Ming Campbell is the worst (55%).
Nearly half of members polled (49%) prefer Gordon Brown as Prime Minister than David Cameron (18%) and would prefer to side with Labour rather than the Conservatives in the event of a ‘hung parliament’. 44% would oppose a coalition with with the Tories under any circumstances, while only 26% would oppose a similar deal with Labour. The ‘hung parliament’ figures are very revealing and show that LibDem activists are well to the left of their MPs,
This will give Chris Huhne heart, if more than half of them have still not voted.”
Frankly I don’t think I have a home in any party looking at those figures. Any party that would side with this most illiberal of governments isn’t really a liberal party worth the name.
2 points - firstly, the figures show that the reason that Clegg is ahead is actually based on a false assumption.
Secondly, that a left leaning membership is voting for a right leaning leader suggests that they don’t understand the nature of Cameron’s appeal and are set to make a big mistake by electing a limper version of him.
All very sad really.
I’ve just put £700 on Clegg with PaddyPower at 2-7. That was the most they would let me do.
Abrahams: “Mendelsohn told me it was a ‘good idea’ to donate via proxies in April”
ICM poll give Tories 11% lead…
47 If that is true then it’s all over for him too.
41% Con
30% Lab
These figures sound about right. Interestingly that is a virtually the same as the final result last time, Ming won 57% in the final round to Huhne’s 43%.
All to play for though, last time 72% of party members voted, so on these figures there is another third of the selectorate to vote in the final fortnight. To pull it round Huhne needs the remainder to break for him by well over 60%. That’s possible, especially if he has another week or so as good as this one on TV, but it’s still pretty unlikely.
As for the tightening betting - I think that reflects the fact that so many people don’t understand the Lib Dems andd wrongly assumed that Clegg would walk the race, when it started far closer than the media suggested.
re 46 he’s now down to 1/7 with Betfair if you want to lay some off
34.That is where I think that Fraser Nelson and many of his journalist colleagues are wrong, right from the start I have thought that Huhne was more of a threat to BOTH the main parties than Clegg.
I have never understood this Huhne appeals to Labour voters vs Clegg appeals to Tories, the Libdem leader which manages the media effectively with the right issues will take votes from both parties or more effectively help incumbent Libdem MP’s.
36.Thanks Marcia, I am not surprised because in the present political climate to actually have a block on working on a local level with the party who is turning out to be the most useful working partner in Holyrood seemed crazy.
Also not surprised that Salmond has chosen to disclose that titbit from a new Yougov poll, in light of developments in Westminster over the last 2 months it is not that shocking a result.
The headline voting intention will be more interesting because it might indicate just how damaged the Scottish Labour party has become by the constant bad headlines for Labour in Westminster, especially in light of the voting chaos and result in May now combined with the donor scandal surrounding Wendy Alexander.
If Labour are already sliding in Scotland in a poll which possible missed the latest events on Friday, this could see even more of a decline in Labour’s vote in Scotland which really could spell even bigger trouble for Labour and Gordon Brown.
Anyone know the full figures for the ICM poll? News 24 have just said 41,30.
50 - Welcome back.
Is it really a united view in the Liberal Democrats that Huhne has had a good week? He has had a lot of publicity, for sure, so good in that sense, but he’s had to make some pretty robust (to put it mildly) statements to do so. The view has been expressed on here that the last week has demonstrated increasing signs of desperation - does that have any credence among the membership?
49 The Labour vote is slowly slipping over the cliff egde. anything under 30 and Labour MP’s are going to get seriously touchy, not that they are not pretty touchy just now…
Presumably LD 18/19 and others 11/10
45.”Secondly, that a left leaning membership is voting for a right leaning leader suggests that they don’t understand the nature of Cameron’s appeal and are set to make a big mistake by electing a limper version of him.” An excellent point ukpaul!
54 - alex
I think after their last permanent leader, visible evidence of a pulse is seen as a plus-point by the electorate.
The LibDems are used to not getting coverage on TV unless Electoral Law demands it. I can see that they would be glad of that, and appreciative of successful efforts to publicise the party, even if they didn’t agree entirely with Huhne’s style.
52 - it’s not about the voters that the respective leaders appeal to. And who knows you could be right.
I just don’t think Huhne worries the Tories at all, in fact they probably reckon he will be good for them in Lab/Con seats.
“Worry” is too strong a word for Clegg - if it can be used it is more by default.
The alliance party in Northern Ireland got £30,000.
But it is fair point we clearly don’t want to stop sensible people and organisations giving more than £50,000 to the liberal Democrats. Just rich fat cats or property developers giving to the Conservatives or Labour parties!
58 - true and of course from a publicity angle it has been good. However you can’t go reporting the Govt to the police every week, so in a sense i think a lot of the publicity is on the back of a “one off” trick.
61 - True enough. I was surprised at the tone of Ian Blair’s rebuttal actually - it appeared to admonish Huhne for not sending a file of evidence, as though the Met only investigate cases that are already solved!
Dizzy has offered a gentle reminder to all those throwing their utterly-justified stones to be extremely careful with their donations register this month. Huhne and Clegg will need to report everything from the leadership election, including any overdrafts or loans. If anything was missed befre one of them became leader, they would be politically damaged from the outset.
An 11 point lead for the Conservatives in an ICM poll would indicate that the ComRes poll earlier in the week was part of a trend?
I don’t even believe that characterisation of the membership - in SE England my experiences is that LD members are the sort of urban intellectual left hated by the Tories.
In parts of the country where we are electorally strong (like down here) the picture is very very different - most of our membership consists of rural people not amongst the very well off.
I’m guessing Huhne will clean up amongst the less pragmatic elements of the former (no doubt disproportionately contributing to YouGov) and trade like a subprime bond with the latter.
Hooray.
Just…enjoy. It won’t stay this good forever, obviously.
My understanding is that the JRRT supports reformist candidates - those dedicated to overturning the status quo -hence mostly LibDems. I believe it is very keen on electoral reform - a goal I believe is closer than even (thus blowing my pretence to be LD who isn’t a deluded fanatic!).
54 - Alex,
Nice 2 vist, though its only likely to be a flying one.
I believe that Chris has had a good week, raising his profile like that through the media certainly won’t hurt him. I don’t claim to speak for anyone else on that though. I think he has fought a very effective campaign, although it has until this week been relentlessly focused on pandering to the activist base rather than the wider electorate.
Let be honest here. The reason Chris has been all over the media this week is because he knew he was lagging behind Nick.
Chris’s people paid for a previous Yougov poll that had results out - about a week ago.
Chris has pulled out all the stops, risking potential criticicm in a last ditch attempt to swing the vote. Whereas Nick had a reasonable idea that the contest was his to lose, and so taking risks made little sense.
Anyone who is considering the way the candidates have conducted themselves and its relationship to their future performance as Lib Dem Leader needs to bear the above firmly in mind.
67 Hi Bullseye , nice to see you posting again .
68 Yes I took part in the previous Yougov poll , I had a suspicion it was a privately commissioned poll for Chris .
Catching up after the canvass, and see various people [David Herdson excepted!] rubbishing my comments on the PLP mood in the last thread by essentially saying the PLP *ought* to be in uproar (someone even says I was reporting canvass returns before canvassing, d’oh!). It’s the same pb.com pundits who were convinced that Brown would be challenged for the leadership - suspect quite a bit of pb.com money went on that too, chasing the ‘early Blair resignation’ money into oblivion. I can’t force you to take my word for PLP stuff (shrug).
I think David H is right that a difference from earlier crises is that the Opposition is seen as more plausible. The canvassing today was in a Lib/Lab area so cast little light on that - we had a dozen people out and covered most of North Stapleford, on a huge ex-council estate. It was consistent with polls showing us nearly comparable with the GE (i.e. most Labour voters still solid but some wavering), but if the Tories mop up LD and other votes then 36% won’t be enough to win next time.
re 68. Observer you still have not sent me your address and contact details for our £500 wager. The bet was that Huhne would better the 41.6% share that he got in the final round against Ming last time. If this poll is correct I’m onto a winner. Please email me here.
Abrahams: the “millionaire property developer” who leaves no financial fingerprints…
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+is+david+abrahams+a+millionaire+/1125047
Net assets of £23k….
Mike, after some consideration, and owing to my position in the party I’m unable to provide you with my real name and address. Could we ask Betfair to put up a % market and we’ll match on there?
73. Why don’t you both use a trusted third party such as Peter the Punter instead?
68 Observer - I don’t dispute your analysis of th last week, but I don’t think you can extrapolate leadership styles from campaign styles.
I don’t think Huhne would be quite as robust if installed as Leader, and for the LDs’ sake I hope Clegg wouldn’t be quite so invisible. These are campaign tactics, not immutable facets of character.
The discriminator I would draw, though, is that both candidates needed to prove that - when necessary - they are able to take the media cycle, and control it, getting the coverage they desire, and directing it. Huhne’s campaign has done this well. Clegg’s campaign decided it was not worth the risk - which is fair, but it means that at no time did I see Nick Clegg weilding the national media. It might be a good strategy to win if you’re in front, but he will need to show the other side if he becomes the third-place political leader. Being the third party leader is all about fighting against odds to be heard. He could have demonstrated that during this campaign, but didn’t.
Is that fair?
Sometimes I wonder why NP bothers to post here given the flack that he immediately takes. It’s all very well for a mere foot soldier like me to get it in the neck, but when as an MP he tries to put a reasonable point of view it just seems a bit pointless him bothering.
Out of this funding fiasco, perhaps some good will come and I hope that GB will force through changes, currently being opposed by the Tories that will put an end to this nonsense once and for all.
70. Based on that it sounds like a Tory landslide is on the cards.
11/03/07 was the last time the Conservatives had a lead like this in a ICM poll
Well done on getting the scoop Mike and well done Will for suggesting it!
Shame about the result though…
63. Last 4 polls (starting with most recent):
ICM - Con lead 11%
YouGov - Con lead 11%
MORI - Con lead 9%
ComRes - Con lead 13%
A very consistent picture.
Consistent indeed, Mike (80). Labour are doing very badly.
81. Badly, yes, but the Tories not really well enough…so far
Re: 294 on the last thread - ‘Joseph Rowntree would be delighted with a LibDem victory in the new Outer York constituency’
Who is standing for the Lib Dems there? Is it confirmed as being Madeleine Kirk? I know James Alexander (former SU President at York Uni, and Labour Club Chair) has beaten Paul Blanchard (’Ban Foie Gras’ councillor) to the Labour nomination recently, which could be significant as York University (and its new campus) all fall within the boundaries. Julian Sturdy got the nod for the Tories.
I am intrigued by this new ‘donut-shaped’ constituency, and can’t wrk out whether the Labour voting City-of-York, or high Tory Vale of York will have more influence. The Council is still Lib Dem, I think.
76. Out of this funding fiasco, perhaps some good will come and I hope that GB will force through changes, currently being opposed by the Tories that will put an end to this nonsense once and for all.
Brown is saying basically saying that because Labour screwed up he is going to punish the taxpayer by wasting their money on political parties. He is iomposing a poll tax.
I cannot think of a better way of destroying the last remnants of trust that the electorate has got for this Government, political parties or our electoral system.
Furthermore, it won’t stop the nonsense. They will just find new ways around the rules. The worse thing about these proposals is that now they will have the added incentive that dodgy donations can also attract a publicly funded subsidy.
82 - Have you tried reverse engineering your methodology to predict the result of previous elections?
82 - Furthermore, whilst the Tories would obviously take an overall majority if it came along I don’t see how they can actively work to ensure it. To achieve it requires to much that is beyond their control. They would quite happily take a hung parliament where they are clearly the largest party and able to govern on their own, and go to the polls again after 2 or 3 years.
In some respects it is more important to them that Labour do incredibly badly, so much as they straddle the overall majority line. (In fact in some respects a minority govt would be far easier to manage than one with a small majority - paradoxically malcontents on the back benches would have far less power).
Are they doing enough for that?
83 Yes Madelaine Kirk is the LibDem PPC for York Outer .
An interesting aspect of the poll is the strong aversion among LibDem members to the Tories. If Clegg wins, as I think we all now think likely, we’ve generally taken the view that he’ll damage the Tories more than Labour (this could be quite wrong, of course), but that the upside for the Tories was that he’ll be more willing to form a coalition with them. The poll suggests he’d have difficulty carrying his party on that.
I know the day hasn’t ended yet, but I didn’t see any new “scandal” today. Is Labour learning?(too early to say this, I guess)
89. Abrahams is now saying the Mendelsson thought the way he puts his donations through 3rd parties was a ‘good idea’ (lead on Sky News). Mendelsson of course denies it.
Judged by Clegg’s performance to date, his selection (if final) will again - imo - prove the LibDem’s ability to pick the wrong candidate is almost unique.
(Apart from the Conservatives post 1997
ICM Con 41% Lab 30% LD 19%
90-Ok, I take back everything I said!!!!!
88. Forgive me Nick if while I read your post I hear a chorus of “Always look on the bright side of life” going in the background
92. Anyone know the changes from the last poll?
re 88. Nick - I think that that is a wrong analysis. A Clegg-led Lib Dem party is more likely to attract Tory tactical voters in LD>CON marginals but less likely to attract Labour supporters in LD>CON ones. So in terms of seats that could be more helpful to Cameron than Brown.
If Huhne had done it then it would have worked the other way round
Mike Smithson
85. “Reverse engineering” - I’m not sure what you mean, but I have run past elections through the model, as if those vote share were repeated in a future election on the new boundaries with same swing pattern as actually occurred. I get..
1992 Tories 20 seats short in a HP.
1997 Lab maj 169
2001 Lab maj 123
2005 Lab maj 43
with the appropriate adjustements fo SF+SDLP
95-I think it is:
Con +3
Lab -1
LibDems -2
“The last ICM poll had figures of CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 21%, so this would suggest a significant increase in Conservative support and a drop in Labour support.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1079
Sorry!
Con +4
98. Teletext page 305 reports changes as Lab -5, Con +1 LD +1
78 Also 11 is the joint largest Conservative lead going back to Oct 1987. er that is 20 YEARS!
Labour are now just one point above their all time ICM low of 29.
There is a growing level of anger towards Labour on the doorstep.
I am just surprised that Nick P’s canvassing has not found this.
100. Thats using the ICM Guardian poll of the 28th October.
92. Central probabilistic forecast…
Con 325
Lab(+SDLP) 227
LD 45
Nats 35
Oth 2
NI (less SF) 11
Tory majority of 5
Assumptions: SNP are up about 20% as per post 36, LD average incumbency and 2005 swing pattern)
95% confidence level (if this was the actual result): Tories +/-10 seats, Lab +/-10 seats, LD +/-6 seats
100-
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm/
(it will show the last ICM poll)
Labour very, very close to dropping under 30% with ICM. I think it;ll happen before Christmas! :O
101-Anger?Not sure if that’s what people are feeling, I think they disappointed with everything that is happening….
97 - Rod, what i meant was - have you attempted to run your model (or rather your model as you might have developed it at the time) as if it were currently 1996, 2000, 2004 or whatever?
However i assume this is rather beyond what is worthwhile attempting, so instead:
How dependent is the final predicted outcome on the specific regional swings that you predict? Is the regional swing thing something any user can input?
103. A very small Tory Majority would be interesting. Say Cameron ends up with a majority of 5, II wonder if he’d be able to do a full Parliament, or of after say 18 months, he’d go to the country again and try to get a more decisive majority?
106-It should read
“they are disappointed”
the ‘time for a change’ feeling is getting pretty entrenched now. Very difficult to see any way back for Labour from here.
Vince Cable gets stuck in:
http://tinyurl.com/2npcov
Great article (and that from a Tory)!
111-Really good…
Ignoring my general rambling, has anyone got any thoughts on post 86?
ie. Would it be easier for Cameron to govern with a minority (say 20 short) govt or a tiny majority govt?
New thread - Another pollster gives Dave a double digit lead
113-None of them would be easy, and I can’t see which one would be easier. What do you think?
94: don’t we all here, test?
Enjoyed this too:
http://newsbiscuit.com/article/clegg-and-cameron-actually-same-person
101: genuinely not, HF. We found exactly one angry voter (an elderly pensioner).
70. Nick P. I don’t think many here are predicting Brown will go before the next GE. I’m certainly not. I wish he would and I do feel that the Labour PLP *ought* to feel the same.
You are right about the dangers of preference affecting betting positions. I’ve backed Brown to be gone in 07 at 80/1 and in 08 at 16/1. I don’t expect to collect on either bet but I feel they are value positions.
In the Labour leadership “contest” I strongly argued and felt that there should be a contest, hoped there would be one but didn’t expect there to be one. I made money backing Brown and also backing the other contenders, especially Miliband at bigger prices on Betfair than I laid them back.
My most profitable betting has resulted from realising Brown’s weaknesses as PM and capitalising on this on the Spreadfair GE seats markets. I don’t think Labour have had their worst polls yet. Worse to come in my view.
115 - Obviously it’s dependent on what Cameron really wants to do, but assuming he wants to govern as a centrist, i think there’s a lot of merit in the minority scenario. For one simple reason. A leader of a minority govt can not be held hostage by their backbenches. They are forced to seek consensus and support from other parties, and that support will inevitably neutralise any small group of malcontents.
111 - Any chance Cameron will offer him a job?
Didn’t realise Cable was Scottish, btw.
I was polled by Yougov, had not voted then but voted for Nick Clegg. I am in the majority who thought Paddy our best leader and Ming our worst. Nice to be in a majority as I live in a Labour / Tory marginal!
re 89 what about the bare faced lie that the missing discs are still on government property. If they are why have the police been searching rubbish dumps?
” the upside for the Tories was that he’ll be more willing to form a coalition with them.”
What is it with this idea?…
The Lib Dems can be willing, but I’m afraid it’s highly unlikely to happen. Most Conservatives I know dislike the Lib Dems more than Labour.
Vote LD get Labour
I know this might not be popular on here at the moment.
However if it continues with every minor donation say £950 quid which is disputed being, referred to the Police by political opponents.
It will surely bring the whole system into some kind of joke.
It needs some kind of system where the elecoral commision have the powers to investigate minor breaches and decide punisment.
It will surely be in the Conservatives intrest also after returning to government , not always to have to contact the Police to investigate.
Other agencies have similar or more powers than the Police.
The public would quite rightly think Police resources could be better used instead of investigating minor breaches.
Clegg at 1/3 for the leadership with Billies for anyone interested