Peter the Punter: “What about another PBC party?”
December 2nd, 2007
Can you post your views below?
Mike has asked me to sound out whether we are ready yet for another Party to celebrate the continued success of the Politcalbetting Site. We don’t need much of an excuse, but Mike giving up the day job and concentrating full time on running the world’s greatest web site seems plenty to me.
Last year’s Party/Book Launch was a great success, partly due to the excellent location – The National Liberal Club. Presumably nobody disgraced themselves as I am told we can use the venue again, if we so wish. I would strongly recommend we do go there again. It is a superb environment in which to eat, drink, and talk politics, and we were very well served there last year. I am nevertheless slightly conscious that in proposing this I may be displaying a London bias, so if somebody could suggest a plausible alternative outside the capital, it would certainly be considered.
Assuming for the moment that the NLC in London does receive enough support, what date do we go for? Mike and I thought a mid-week evening in January, although possibly a Friday might be better for people coming from out of town. Last year some came from very considerable distances to attend, and I think the views of such people ought to be giving extra weight in deciding this year’s arrangements.
Last year’s function was heavily subsidized. We don’t have the same advantage this year but I have the impression that cost is not a serious issue. I have not even begun to look at costings but I should think something in the region of £25 per head should be about right to cover wine, sandwiches and nibbles.
For the moment, all I need is a general indication of the level of support. Please post your views below and I’ll come back to you with some more specific proposals later in the month. All I need at the moment is an indication of interest, but I will need a definite promise of payment before I commit to the booking of rooms etc in due course.
I look forward to hearing your views.
Warm regards
Peter Smith (Peter the Punter)
MessageSpace Advertising
What about the North East - it seems to be the focus of political news.
Would David Abrahams be willing to sponsor it?
Or as so many members of Labour friends of Israel in the news, what about meeting there. I know a superb restaurant
1.”What about the North East - it seems to be the focus of political news.” Barry, maybe we could look for some donations?
whats the dress code?
Russia - “first results” - not sure what that means…
United Russia 62.8
Communists 11.5
Liberal Democrats (neither liberal nor democrat) 10.6
Just Russia (Pro-Kremlin) 7.1
Definitely interested in a party.
I will try to get there, it was v good last time.
3: Dress code?
London venue: Smart casual or lounge suite
North East: Pyjamas with little arrows on, hand cuffs optional.
will payments be allowed via third parties?
3 Good point.
At the NLC, smart casual if you just want to stay in the party room/bar but jacket and tie if you want to wander around the Club.
It is a very beautiful building, so worth making the effort to scrub up.
We need all my LD friends there: SBS, Dan, Paul Lloyd etc!
Great idea from Peter.
Lutterworth is the centre of the country (where the M1, M6 and M14 meet) - I control bookings for the Cricket Pavilion -capacity about 100, modern (the old one was burnt down by a 16 year old) but comfortable with bar etc. and am on the committee of the Town Hall - old stylish, small building (100 capacity again) designed by Joseph Hansom (of Cab fame). Could organise limited range of drinks and food there.
But London is London
Btw, how many names can you put to faces in that photo? I can only do two with confidence.
The one at the back towards the right looks suspiciously like David Abrahams, but I can’t be sure.
(If it is, he didn’t pay.)
I posted at the exact second the new thread went up. The comment did not get through, but now I am being reprimanded for repeating it.
Will try to get along this time .
14 - looking forward to it!
14 - That would be most out of character, Mark!
11 Noted with thanks, Icarus.
If there’s enough support, that could well be a good option.
14/15 Presumably you two could provide entertainment? A little cage-wrestling, perhaps?
what odds on Ave It falling out with someone and being escorted from the premises?
18 LOL - I have to think of my poor finger.
Over 40s have to take it easy!
I will try to make it if it’s in the second half of January and in London.
19 HAHAHA 1-5
4
I wonder if russian pb.c are beginning to regret putting up “Putins” for every percentage point lead.
21 Be great to see you, Jan. London in the second half of January is the most likely, although personally I wouldn’t mind Bergen in June.
A Friday in London would be preferred [unlikely I could come midweek]. Thank you for again making the effort to organise the event!
from previous thread….
144. Roughly speaking (at the mid-term government trough)
a) 8%
b) 14%
c) 20%
d) 24%
although these are very rough estimates, I accept, particularly c) and d).
141. If the system had been “working correctly” John Major would have obtained a majority of at least 71 in 1992, not 21, and history would have been rather different….
124. Doesn’t work that way, since:
i) 535-3 and 538-0 wipeouts are quite possible.
ii) the number of combinations of states resulting in a 269-269 tie is small, probably about 1%, due to each state having a different number of electors.
iii) Elections are not just about combinations, since that would assume every combination to have equal probability, and every state an equal likelihood of going to either party. In reality, a small lead for either side tips a shedload of states (and all their electoral votes) in that direction…
PtP - Yep great idea, I suggest the end of Jan ‘08 to distance it from Xmas/New Year festivities. £25 is probably top price to ensure a good attendance, but £20 + modest sponsor would be better, I did suggest Betfair to Mike as a possible candidate, possibly even to host it in their Hammersmith offices (very convenient for me don’t you know). Friday afternoon and early evening sounds good for those travelling 100 miles or more. How about a competition, 1st prize £100, say, sponsored by voluntary contribs from Pb.com’s winning punters?
Grateful thanks from me and I’m sure others for once again organising this.
PS for those who wish to identify themselves, ID lapel badges which work would be a good idea!
Jonathan just inches away from Guido Fawkes
- hey, Mike, where are my royalties for that snap? :(. Great idea for a third party.
PtP - good call. Mid-to-end of Jan works well, although a Friday night would be much easier than midweek. NLC is a lovely venue too.
RodCrosby and JohnLoony and anyone else who is interested: I posted a hefty post on the Electoral College combinations problem on the previous thread, but after this one was opened. If anyone is expert in these sort of problems (converting polling data into electoral systems based on weightings) I would be very interested to know.
Looking forward to meeting some of you soon.
27 Re my suggestion for a competition at the party, to start the ball rolling, I’d be willing to contribute £20.
Thanks Rod, looks reasonable. Of course the corollary is that we can already rule out a Labour majority govt at the next election by definition
I would definetely go if it was on a Friday - if only to watch Ave It thumb wrestling various LDs into submission. The National Liberal would be interesting as well - visitng enemy territory under a flag of truce is always a interesting experience.
Are we allowed to wear Bullingdon club outfits bought at the Salvation Army shop?
29. The best way forward would probably be a Monte Carlo simulation using previous data on the variation in two-party swing across the states to generate random swings in each state, repeated say 10,000 times. The question can only really be asked for specific divisions of the popular vote, e.g. 50/50.
who will be guest speaker?
31. I would say at the moment a Labour majority looks “unlikely”, while Tories largest party looks “possible”…
I’d be keen to come along, provided there is no “frequency of posting” hurdle…
BBC lead on donorgate again, but Wendy got joint billing as a ‘related’ story. That’s a fairly big decision by BBC News seeing as Scottish stories seem to get lower billing somehow in national bulletins.
BBC lead on donorgate again, but Wendy got joint billing as a ‘related’ story. That’s a fairly big decision by BBC News seeing as Scottish stories seem to get lower billing somehow in national bulletins.
27. An alternative to Betfair as a possible sponsor would be William Hill, who have been mentioned many times here over recent months and as a result, can probably identify an increasing trend in their political betting turnover. The trouble is that in most cases, the opportunities posted here have generally cost them money, as I’m sure the 1-3 odds on Clegg spotted today will prove to be the case!
Apologies for the double post 37/38
Will there be any lefties there?
because I cant stand lefties. Its like talking to a brick wall.
Friday in London would be great for me, although afternoon is a bit tricky…
PtP - I think I can name five people in the photo.
41 - Al, I agree with you on “lefties” but what is your definition of a “leftie”. Anybody to the left of you?
41/43 - we need the LDs there for entertainment
43 - well that rules out Attila the Hun, then!
I have to come. The chance of meeting Madasafish is too good to pass up!!
Latest on Russia…
“United Russia: 63.5%
Communist Party of Russia: 11.3%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia: 10%
A Fair Russia (Mothers/Pensioners/Life): 7%”
BBC describe Liberal Democratics Party as pro-Kremlin. Whilst Zhirinovsky hedges his bets, he’s not quite Putin’s bosom buddy.
44 - which LDs? UK or Russian ones?
46 He’s not difficult to spot - with a barbed hook through his lower lip.
44 sbs from what you said earlier i dont want to meet the russian ones!
I’d be up for it given the right conjunction of date, place, time and venue.
50 James, don’t forget to stipulate acceptable weather conditions also.
We want colin w there - its not far from canterbury.
Is it me or does Guido seem to be sprouting horns in the photo?
Sounds a cracking idea. I’m well up for a trip to the smoke.I think they still do a 3rd class carriage from Devon. Maybe Northern Rock could sponsor us!
47-Thanks for the update!
I recall Mr Z. of the Russian “Liberal Democrats” was once referred to as…
“The Anti-Matter Ashdown…”
51 - That would hint at an al fresco thing.
39 Are you insane, PfP?!!
You want Sidney to find out how much he’s helped us make? :oo:
Send a Parcel to our Boys/Girls in Itaq & Afghanistan
See Iain Dale’s web-site
42 “PtP - I think I can name five people in the photo.”
Can you jot the names down please, UK Paul, and send them to Inspector Yates, New Scotland Yard, StJames. I believe he wants to speak to them about some ermine.
re 233 from previous thread and 26 above
but in the likelihood of a 269 tie the individual electors in the 6 weeks preceding the poll in December would come under such intense pressure to change their vote one way or the other that a tie would me most unlikely to happen.
gracious PtP seems to have shed years in the pic above!
London’s easy enough for me - not sure if Brum counts as a “considerable distance” - and a Friday night would be preferable.
41 Alf
The NLC has a delightful balcony overlooking The Embankment. It will of course be too too cold to sit out, but it can used to throw Lefties from.
You may need to ask the Club for permission but I am sure that is a mere formality.
53 Guido was there?
Must engage some rather more thorough bouncers this time.
62 LOL Chris A!
Double Carpet won’t be too amused though.
Seems to be a fair bit of support for a Friday evening.
Btw Chris, I don’t know if you picked up my reply from a few threads back but yes, Denman is ‘one of ours’ and yes I was rather chuffed at his performance.
have emailed a report this evening.
I thought the gentleman in the foreground had more than a passing resemblance to the former England cricketer Angus Fraser ?
re 65 PtP yes thanks; and just got the report which looks very promising. Thanks to to the committee which must have put in hours mulling over the possibilities. Getting the right blend in each line makes calculating the possibilities of an electoral college tie above seem a doddle perhaps.
Sorry to O/T but this article from Brian Taylor’s blog is worth reading. It highlights the internal struggle going on in the Scottish Labour party this weekend, and just how serious it is for Gordon Brown in Westminster if Wendy Alexander is forced to resign.
65.PtP, thanks for the regular updates.
67 You are most kind, Chris A, but in fact the most difficult bit was getting sensible answers out of Icarus. We found it helped though if you contacted him before the pubs opened.
61. My bet with Morus is based on the “actual election outcome” (as determined, I suppose, by the Supreme Court of the United States, if required), and not dependent on “faithless electors” or the result of any vote in the House.
Agreed?
re 70 but the electoral college result is presumably the one which will be declared on the afternoon of 6th January 2009?
68-The question:
Did Wee Wendy break the “spirit of the law”?
I think Broxtowe Town Hall would be the best place, but failing that the NLC again sounds good. We Commons types could probably only do Mon-Thur, but maybe weekends are better for others.
In reply to Sean Fear on the previous thread - my impression is that the Russian communists are pretty unreconstructed (i.e. closer to the former coup-makers than to the Gorbchev line), with a nasty tendency to flirt with ultra-nationalism. For a more general overview see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Russia . I don’t think Clegg would win the LD leadership there…
45 - lol, Morus!
73 - yes, the Communists are still pretty nasty in Russia. Many of Putin’s party are ex-Communists, which makes it pretty much akin to New Labour.
And the Liberal Democratic Party is definitely the nasty party!
73 Of course, Nick, I’m forgetting. Surely we can hire the House?
Presumably we would have to make a small ‘donation’, routed through the usual channels, but that shouldn’t be difficult. Mike has numerous offshore accounts under various aliases.
71. Legally, I dare say, and legally the electors are under no obligation to vote for the party they were pledged to.
But since the discussion between Morus and me was about electoral outcomes arising from the popular election, for the avoidance of doubt the bet is “the legally-determined number of pledged electors for the two main parties in the college will not be tied”
Agreed?
74. Even New Labour don’t close down newspapers, imprison political opponents on trumped up charges, or assasinate journalists, though.
77 Hmmm…perhaps nobody has suggested it to them, Nepravda.
Drop them a line.
74 - i see the LDPR have a song: maybe we need to have songs here:
Such as:
Camo here Camo there Camo every *******where!
The closest we had here was in 1992 when the Hardcore Altern8ive Party ran the LDs close in Stafford…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrKZ9Po6aYA
58 OK - If not Betfair or Wm Hill as sponsors, how about Cantor Spreadfair, probably the most innovative of the spread betting firms from a political persective?
It would be a shame if we were bereft of any MPs (Nick Palmer at #73), so maybe a Thursday lunchtime/afternoon should not be ruled out.
re: the Labour party. Are they basically gambling that the police are not going to take any action against those who are either refusing to resign or are being prevented from resigning?
Because it will look a hell of a lot worse, and keep the story going much longer if people are forced out due to being charged. It also can’t be great for the individuals involved themselves, because surely the one thing guaranteed to keep the police on their case is the fact that they are still in office. If they resign then press interest (in them) will die down, and it will be easier for the police to take no action, issue simple cautions whatever.
To see this, one only has to consider how everyone has completely lost interest in Peter Watt, yet he is the only one in clear and present danger of going to jail (not least because the sums involved with him are so much bigger).
Don’t really buy into the fear being expressed from Labour that Alexander’s resignation will make a Harman resignation inevitable. The offences are different, and with respect to the donations only one has a prima facie case of an offence being committed. Alexander could easily cover her resignation by linking it to the untruths that were apparently told last week (before the letter came to light) rather than any criminal wrongdoing (intentional or otherwise).
Shock result in Russia… Con gain Novosibirsk North West…
RodCrosby - I was thinking “no candidate will receive the support of 270 or more votes for President in the Electoral College” [with your £100 against this proposition], as I thought we were including where a state is won by a third party candidate.
Is this acceptable, or were you only betting the money on there not being a tie? As you have graciously offered the bet free, I feel it is only fair that you should decide!
Also, thanks for your post at 33 - I’ll have a good look at this.
61 - Chris A: I’m not so sure. I can’t see someone in Colorado thinking “Well I was going to vote for Hillary, but now CSPAN has warned me that that produces a less than 1% chance of a tie and the vote going to Congress, I’ll go for Rudy instead”. Even if a significant number of people did this, would that not work both ways (Republicans voting Dem, and Dems voting Republican in equal measure). The impact of the possibility would be in the campaigns, by redirecting funds, but I don’t think they could sensibly break the tie by changing strategy. Swing states get money regardless - no campaign would pull funds from any just to avoid constitutional difficulties, that would be resolved in Congress.
What is very interesting is that no-body knows how the House of Representatives would vote. In 2000, the Dems in the House outumbered the Republicans 17-16 in the Texas delegation. Would that majority cause Texas’ vote to go to Gore, given it would contravene the popular vote in that state for the former Governor? Would congressmen vote by popular vote within their state, within their district, or by party? States with an even number of congressmen, equally split, would likely be tied, forcing that state to abstain. That makes the 26 state minimum to win yet harder to reach, as on average 7 or 8 states are in this situation (only 3 at present).
This might influence the loony politicos like myself, but I find it hard to believe a campaign would work on this basis (given its unlikelihood) - I cannot concede the popular vote would be swayed in the way you imagine.
80 That’s a bit more like it, PfP. After all, Cantor Spreadfair have been funding mike all year, I’m sure they could stretched to the rest of us for a change.
As regards timing, I guess by picking a time when MPs are unable to attend we are likely to attract a more upmarket clientele.
82 lol
Shock result in Russia… Con gain Novosibirsk North West…
Without doubt, this is a one liner you might expect to see on PB.com and nowhere else on God’s earth!
81.Alex, its sounds like intense discussions and politicking has been going on all weekend in the Scottish Labour camp. Worth watching the Scottish Politics show if repeated on the Parliament channel or on line. You can also watch Aberdeenshire council chucking out a billion pound development on the back of one vote and a priceless round up of the week by Ken Mcdonald at the end too.
85 Indeed, very funny Ave It, but do you allow imitations?
86 That’s right PfP, and it’s only on the third reading that you begin to suspect it may not be entirely serious.
86 - we have entertainment on pb.com
On pollbludger.com (australian website) where i lent some gentle support to the losing coalition, the site is dominated by labor (australia) supporters the vast majority of which are humourless morons!
On here even the LDs (some) have a sense of humour
76 - legally the electors are under no obligation to vote for the party they were pledged to.
The law in some states does impose this obligation, but it probably breaches the federal constitution.
88 - we conservatives believe in a free market….
Con gain Eastleigh oops sorry mr Huhne…. (must have lost £5m this week with the housing crash…..)
91 Maybe it’s my imagination, but having been once one of our most prolific contributors, is this the first time book value has been on here for weeks - not the sniff of a party looming by any chance is it?
“If only Mother Teresa had been a Labour donor”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article2988388.ece
91
Funny you should mention that PfP - in fact, a pending change in my job situation means I may have more time to spend with my surrogate PBC family on Friday afternoons in January…
87 - yeah what was the story with that Trump thing, Chris?
Was it actually rejected foR a reason or was it just to do with petty politics?
I will be there in spirit but alas, the tyranny of distance between SW1 and Sydney’s lower north shore conspires against my presence. Best wishes for a great party though.
re 61 Morus I was thinking of the pressure on the members of the electoral college after 4th November rather the individual voters. If the result on 4th November comes out at 269 each then they are going to be under the most immense pressure.
87. “You can also watch Aberdeenshire council chucking out a billion pound development on the back of one vote ”
It’s not Labour’s fault though!
98. Alexandre Drake, in how many days do you think they will finish to count all votes for last week’s elections?
re 82 I’m going there next August So I’ll report on conditions in truest blue Siberia
96.Alex, an incredible decision. Here are the details, but I don’t think this is over yet…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/7123779.stm
87 - I really don’t see how Wendy can hold on. She will get hammered in the parliament - I can only imagine how much Alex Salmond is looking forward to PMQ’s - and she will be hammered by the media. It’s probably more damaging in the long term for Scottish Labour if she stays.
It does seem to me as well that if it is the case that she is staying on solely to help out Labour at a UK level then Labour are playing right into the nationalists hands.
100.Andrea, I never said it was, just that the decision was discussed in the same programme.
Count me in - at last I’m living and working in London and I can make it virtually any day you choose in January (except maybe the morning of the first - potential hangover).
103 - I think you are right. It seems that Labour are in a hell of a mess over this and fundamentally there isn’t a scenario where they are not fundamentally screwed in the short to medium term.
re 91 there’s nothing in the US constitution which forces them to vote one way or the other. In fact there’s nothing to say that they need to be chosen by a popular vote at all.
98 I’m sure PtP could move the location to Ashford if this would help you! Very many thanks for your sound and accurate forecast of the Oz election results and you’ve no doubt seen similar comments expressed here over the past week - it will be even better when Betfair finally get round to paying out on individual seat results, eg Howard’s defeat in Bennelong.
I can’t, alas, make London, but I would be interested in any meeting in Manchester or Nottingham.
can we start a the next leader thread on Scottish Labour?
Andy Kerr? Malcolm Chisholm? Margaret Curran? Iain Gray? Cathy Jamieson as interim leader?
107 - exactly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
Twenty-four states have laws to punish faithless electors. While no faithless elector has ever been punished, the constitutionality of state pledge laws was brought before the Supreme Court in 1952 (Ray v. Blair, 343 U.S. 214). The court ruled in favor of the state’s right to require electors to pledge to vote for their party’s nominee, as well as to remove electors who refuse to pledge. Once the elector has voted, however, it is not possible to change their vote - a faithless elector may only be punished after the fact. As stated in the ruling, electors are acting as a function of the state, not the federal government. Therefore, states have the right to govern electors. The constitutionality of state laws punishing electors for actually casting a faithless vote, rather than refusing to pledge, has never been decided by the Supreme Court.
States can possibly fine faithless electors but not overturn their votes.
99 Chris A - ahh, I see! That makes more sense!
You’re right, they would be under unspeakable pressure, although given the vetting process, I would be surprised if there were any movement on party. Not since 1972 has a faithless elector switched party from their pledged position (GOP to Libertarian). Most are protests for a candidate who was not nominated (Reagan got a vote when Ford was nominated in 1976) or mistakes. I think these would be even less likely if the EC was tied. Furthermore, 24 states have laws against faithless electors, and the Supreme Court has upheld such laws - this can’t stop a faithless elector, but ut would mean legal punishment as well as a life of hell forever from whichever party lost.
Who would dare break ranks? You would be hated by almost half the country, and have made some very powerful enemies, as well as facing jail. Safer to stick to your pledge, surely?!
30% of Russian vote in. I would expect the current standings to hold as they are - though the Communists may drop a bit when the big cities in the West come in, as might the LDP. There will be a bit of a dribble for liberal parties too, but nothing like enough to push them over 7%. So the night could get better for Mr P, who may next year become Mr PM.
106 - It’s a tough one for them. Even tougher when you look at the possible contenders for the job. None of them could compete with Salmond and would probably be weaker than Annabel Goldie and Nicol Stephen.
So what odds on an Electoral College tie AND a faithless elector?
[only kidding]
O/T: Donorgate may put May 2009 General Election in doubt.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2983895.ece
It may be a long way off but………
98 A feeble excuse, Alexander. Just what kind of an Australian are you?
(Seriously…u OK? Recovered? )
103.Max, I still couldn’t believe that she was still in post on Friday never this evening after the revelations in the Sunday Herald.
“The stakes are high, should she stay to help Brown protect some of his Westminster chums, or should she go to protect her own party in her own back yard?”
This could get really messy especially if we end up with internal splits among Scottish Labour MP’s and MSP’s because of a territorial conflict of interest?
114. “None of them could compete with Salmond and would probably be weaker than Annabel Goldie and Nicol Stephen.”
it’s difficult to be weaker than Stephen
91. Perhaps, but I don’t think it’s been tested. There are I believe certain sanctions that be applied; again, none ever have been. But whatever, electors cannot be “compelled” to follow their pledge…
83. Morus, the relevant bit of the discussion was surely…
“58. Once I have finished all the data crunching, I will publish all the data and permutations that could deliver the [b]tie[/b]. It was a purely academic excercise, but fun for anyone interested in odds.
by Morus December 2nd, 2007 at 3:21 pm
64 58. off the top of my head I’d say about 100,000-1 ?
by RodCrosby December 2nd, 2007 at 3:33 pm”
I happen to think the odds of no-one getting at least 270 is still very remote, but a good deal more likely than a tie. Perhaps 1000-1
I’ll tell you what, so confident of neither outcome am I, the original free bet stands “legally determined pledged electors for Dem and Rep are tied”, and I’ll offer a separate free bet “legally-determined pledged electors are fewer than 270 for each candidate” of £50.
So
1. If there is a tie, I’ll donate £100
2. If no-one gets 270 electors or more, I’ll donate £50
3. If both 1&2 happen, I’ll donate £150 in total.
How’s that?
O/T I guess Des (Macavity II - the sequel) Browne will be in Scotland next week.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article2983826.ece
More trouble for Gordon?
119 - yeah, it is hard to believe that when a youthful Nicol won the Kincardine and Deeside by-election back in 1991, there was talk of him being a future party leader… that is of the UK party.
As Sam Goldwyn said “we have all passed a lot of water under the bridge since then.”
110 - I saw Stephen Purcell was mentioned and he isn’t even an MSP! I suppose if a vacancy was to arrise in Glasgow Cathcart he could get in that way. I doubt Labour would fancy a by-election though.
Iain Gray is one of the better Labour MSP’s but he did lose Pentlands in 2003 and he’s not from the West Coast. As much as I’d love Cathy Jameson to get the job I think Andy Kerr would get it. He’s been about the only Labour MSP who has looked capable of taking the fight to the SNP and he was a fairly competent minister. Weird hair though.
98 - are they ever going to finish the counting???
I know there are postal votes but still……..
“I’ll put my cards on the table and name names, says David Abrahams”
“It emerged that the businessman was invited to a fundraising gala dinner at the party’s annual conference only two months ago – also raising questions about who in the party knew about the funding arrangement.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2988478.ece
124 I think, Ave It, they have this odd preoccupation with counting the votes correctly.
Perhaps Wee Dougie could assist them.
120 - We have a deal, sir!
And if there is a candidate who wins 270 or more votes, I will buy you a drink of your choice (
costing no more than £10!) for your patience with my muddleheadedness, and your generosity of spirit.
Either Wednesday’s or Fridays are good for me, I can go £20 straight in the pot, Mike is holding it for me.
The only thought I have is access for smokers, and there are a few of us, to an area where we can smoke with out breaking the law, or failing that not get caught
Venue outside London?
I reckon I could get my pubs upstairs function hall (a former court) for very little
(Food would be extra but then again I can cook)
123.I would have thought that Andy Kerr was the favourite to replace Wendy Alexander should she have to resign, I imagine we would see an interim leader put in place while the party has a proper contest this time?
119 & 122 - To be fair he has improved considerably in the last couple of months. Not a patch on Bella though!
119 - Andrea - The candidate we’ve selected for Linlithgow brought back some memories from an incident on this site some time ago!
123. I suppose people around Wendy would be cut off from a new contest…Andy Kerr was a McConnell’s ally on the other hand.
I mentioned Malcolm Chisholm because he would have experience and he would represent a more “traditional” Labour….so he won’t become leader!
Cathcart…it wouldn’t the first time they’re called to vote again because the MSP is in prison….
Purcell…uhm, a gay leader…some sections of Scottish Labour don’t seem very open mind…
re 124 The AEC is still showing only 84% counted - frankly it’s just completely ridiculous not to know the result of an election 2 weeks after it’s happened. We’ll be into US 2000 territory soon.
125 “I’ll put my cards on the table and name names, says David Abrahams”
Hell hath no fury like a confirmed bachelor with a keen interest in musical theatre as he was described on Friday’s HIGNFY
With 34 percent of the ballots counted
United Russia 63.3
Communist Party 11.4
The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia 9.5
Fair Russia 7.5
the Agrarian Party 2.5
Yabloko 1.4
the Union of Right Forces 1.1
Therefore Putin 70%, extremists 20%, nice parties 2.5%
Re 12, peter the Punter “The one at the back towards the right looks suspiciously like David Abrahams, but I can’t be sure.
(If it is, he didn’t pay.) ”
Are you sure? Have you checked third party sources
“I imagine we would see an interim leader put in place while the party has a proper contest this time? ”
your friend Cathie Jamieson, I think..IIRC she’s still the Deputy Leader
129. Benedict never mind breaking the law, you need good outdoor facilities with heating.
I also notice that Howard would have won FPTP.
Re 12, Peter the Punter “Re 12, peter the Punter “The one at the back towards the right looks suspiciously like David Abrahams, but I can’t be sure.”
Oi! Thats me you g1t!
136 - I recall that Rik W reserved a ticket, failed to turn up and then took a long time paying. Did David Abrahams pay on his behalf?
133 - I have been winding up the labor on pollbludger.com as the postal votes have gone against them - they are still going to win but are very whingy at the loss of a few seats late on…
Thought they’d be happy after their first win in about 100 years!
131. “Andrea - The candidate we’ve selected for Linlithgow brought back some memories from an incident on this site some time ago!”
141 - or perhaps Mr Abrahams got somebody else to “pay”
Don’t be too hard on the Aussies taking time counting the votes…
They probably haven’t even finished PRINTING the votes in Russia…
137.I did wonder if Cathy Jamieson would have to step in to hold the fort, that’s it, Wendy Alexander has to go and Cathy should step to the role of Labour leader at Holyrood questions.
TK max and Primark might notice a drop in sales, but the Labour party needs her.
145 hahahahahahaha
131.&143. Gives us a clue?
146. I think Cathy may have done a PMQs between McConnell and Wendy.
The thing I’ve not understood is if she’s Deputy Leader for Life…
135 - ‘nice parties 2.5%’ is that yabloko and URF’???
146 - I think we should start a campaign to draft George Foulkes! At least the parliament would be a bit more entertaining.
150 - yes. The key thing about Russian politics is that the main opposition parties are worse than the incumbent. And Gary Kasparov, who is not contesting this election, has some very dodgy friends too.
134-LOL!
136 Why? It’s not illegal to receive payments from proxies, is it?
Btw, your kind offer noted. As a Private Club, would the NLC be exempt from the smoking ban? It must have smoking rooms, surely?
Failing that, you could always go on the Terrace. Although you’d have to watch out for Alf Resco. By his standards, you are a leftie, so you would be in a certain amount of danger.
The Brown succession - it’s starting to be conceivable that Brown will be out before the next election. There would have to be continued disastrous news for perhaps another year, but if so, he could find himself out.
152 - putin is my favourite!
(As we say on Strictly…)
151.I always think he performs well for the Labour party in the media in Scotland.
Re 63, Peter “The NLC has a delightful balcony overlooking The Embankment. It will of course be too too cold to sit out, but it can used to throw Lefties from.”
“You may need to ask the Club for permission but I am sure that is a mere formality. ”
Do you think there will be any trouble over smoking? Obviously it is not like throwing lefties of a balcony, so presumably an application should be made in advance?
Well, it’s 10.30pm and a pretty disappointing response to the idea of another PB.com party it has to be said. Maybe people will only address this when it comes to paying. If all else fails PtP - you, Mike & I can always have a pint down at the Dog and Duck.
140 Sorry, Benedict, just noticed that post.
So you related to this Abrahams guy?
Can I suggest that the venue for the party shouldn’t be in Jersey?
154 - the last time I was there (courtesy of Augustus Carp), the Smoking Room had a non-smoking section. Lib Dems eh?
Re 74, SBS “And the Liberal Democratic Party is definitely the nasty party!”
Just like here then
148.”Gives us a clue? ”
some think I’m your candidate for Linlithgow
151. George Foulkes was already suprised to be elected in first place..and apparently didn’t expected to be..and not sure if he’s enjoying being an MSP
163: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
159-” pretty disappointing response to the idea of another PB.com party it has to be said.”
Why?
159 Oh, I thought it was OK, PfP. But then I’ve had a lifetime’s practice of making a welcome out of indifference.
I should say we’re heading for a wintry Friday evening at the NLC, with Alf Resco acting as bouncer to ensure nobody of a leftish persuasion gets in.
Sounds OK to me.
166 Err …I think it’s called numbers.
I think it’s odd that pollsters pre-release their polls at all. The whole point of commissioning a poll for a media organisation is to get a scoop. Why would they want it to be published anywhere but in their own newspaper / programme?
163 - yes, right wing populist parties are usually nasty.
Russian LDs open coalition negotiations…
http://photos14.flickr.com/19493829_fcc3d93e26_o.jpg
167 Agreed, once you get the thumbscrews out, everything will be fine. How many came to the last bash BTW?
168-Many can’t go, because they don’t live in the UK. I guess that’s the reason why they don’t even say (anyway I say this, because I’m one of those)
An interesting exchange in Scottish First Ministers Question Time on Friday (edited highlights only)
The First Minister: In passing, I congratulate Wendy Alexander on her success in dominating the news agenda in Scotland.
Ms Alexander: I will return to the issue of domestic violence shortly, but let me make an observation. I have asked for the permissibility of the donation to my election campaign to be checked, and we await the outcome of the Electoral Commission’s investigation.
In the meantime, Presiding Officer, given the First Minister’s remarks, let me make a further observation. When my team began compiling the information for our campaign return, we asked the Electoral Commission about the previous major party leadership contest held in Scotland, by the Scottish National Party, in 2004. Following a three-month election campaign—which involved the publication of personal manifestos, websites and campaign literature, and attendance at hustings—Alex Salmond, Roseanna Cunningham and Alex Neil, and the candidates for the deputy leadership, Nicola Sturgeon and Fergus Ewing, did not between them submit a single return or report any donations to the Electoral Commission. I find that an odd state of affairs for a party that is now lecturing us on transparency.
The First Minister:
Wendy Alexander’s elaborate remarks on the leadership contest surely just prove that SNP members spent less on fighting elections than Wendy Alexander managed to spend on not fighting one.
Later On
Alex Neil (Central Scotland) (SNP): On a point of order, Presiding Officer. During her questions to the First Minister, Wendy Alexander said that she had checked with the Electoral Commission and found that I did not spend any money in the SNP leadership contest in 2004. The reason for that is that I was not a candidate for the leadership in 2004. [Interruption.]
The Presiding Officer: Order.
Alex Neil: For the record, I publicly backed Mr Salmond. I have no doubt that that was a major factor contributing to his success.
The Presiding Officer: That is not a point of order, but it is now on the record.
Jackie Baillie (Dumbarton) (Lab): On a point of order, Presiding Officer. Mr Neil is, of course, right. The candidate was Mike Russell. Perhaps we might be forgiven on two counts. First, it is so difficult to tell Mr Neil and Mr Russell apart as they sit together right on the shoulder of the First Minister. Secondly, everyone in the chamber knows that Alex Neil has pretensions to the throne.
However, the key point, Presiding Officer—
The Presiding Officer: Do you have a point of order, Ms Baillie?
Jackie Baillie: Indeed I do. The SNP needs to confirm that, in a three-month election leadership campaign, every candidate was entirely self funded—
The Presiding Officer: This is not a point of order for me, Ms Baillie.
Jackie Baillie:—and that each of those candidates, including Mike Russell—
The Presiding Officer: This is not a point of order for me. I ask you to close.
Jackie Baillie:—received no donations and no support—
The Presiding Officer: That brings us to the end of First Minister’s question time.
148 - Chris a while back in a very bizarre post someone claimed to have outed Andrea as a member of staff for the Scottish Tories confusing him with Andrea Stephenson our candidate for Linlithgow.
I am fairly sure they are not the same person!
175 - see http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/04/13/do-you-fancy-being-a-trader-on-the-general-election/
post 98
176. I totally forgot about that thing..now it’s funny, at the time it was weird
175.If the Scottish Labour party had any sense they would employ Andrea as their chief researcher before First Ministers questions.