Will these be the winners in the first White House test?
December 2nd, 2007
Will Iowa be a springboard in both nomination races?
With just one month and one day to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race new opinion polls put Barack Obama ahead amongst Democrats and the former governor of Arkansas ahead in the Republican race.
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Both have gambled heavily on doing well in the Iowa state caucuses which traditionally start the process of the parties selecting their nominees.
The social conservative who was born in the same town as Bill Clinton, Mike Huckabee, has leaped above Mitt Romney according to a poll in the Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican caucus participants. He’s ahead by 29% to 24%.
In the Democrat race the same poll has Obama up from 22% to 29% with the national front-runner, Hillary Clinton, at 25%, down from 29% in the previous poll.
The national leader for the GOP ticket, Rudy Giluliani, has almost stood aside in the state.
There’s little doubt that the outcome on January 3rd will have a huge impact on the betting and I’ve a trading position against Hillary and also have bets at good prices on Obama and Huckabee.
A full range of White House betting options can be found here.
Mike Smithson
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Yes, I was going to ask for a thread about this!!!!
Willhill still offering 1/3 on Clegg, which can be laid off immediately for a profit on Betfair.
It looks highly possible for both to emerge with wins in Iowa and the impact on both the GOP and Dem races would be dramatic.
If Clinton wins in Iowa she will have the nomination wrapped up IMHO with momentum behind her becoming unstoppable - however if she loses in Iowa (and Obama is the only candidate with a realistic chance of beating her) the race swings wide open.
If Obama can maintain himself in the region of 30% (+) in Iowa over the next few weeks I’d be surprised if he didn’t emerge from the caucuses with a win, he could then ride that momentum into New Hampshire (where he is already very strong amongst independent voters) and probably win there - from there on Clinton’s position would become rapidly more desperate relying either on a rally in SC (where there is no way of knowing how the large african american vote would react to Obama winning in the earlier contests) or in the “Super Tuesday” states.
Another bit of good news for the Obama campaign has been the series of polls which have shown him doing better in national match ups than Clinton, his position amongst republican and independent voters is already much stronger than Clinton’s and this sort of data could influence the “electability” argument (which was a key feature of the ‘04 nomination contest).
On the GOP side I’ve always though Huckabee had a great USP, namely that he’s the only standard bearer for the “south-fried” wing of the party, yet at the same time he can boast a good record as a three term governor (in a state dominated by democrats at the local level) as well as a folksy approach that the electorate has responded to well in the past. It could well be insufficient to offset everything thats going against the GOP nationally as we head into the ‘08 contest but it could well be enough to win him the nomination in a field that is dominated by more moderate, republican figures from the party’s east coast “establishment” wing.
Just seen Linford saying that the Sedgefield By-Election could conceivably be re-run. Really? Would the Electoral Commision really take such unprecedented action………
3. Huckabe was 2 term only right? But won’t the creationist tag hurt him as well as help him
Looks like the Unionist alliance at Holyrood is now well and truly in tatters:
Strathclyde Police said: “We can confirm we have received an e-mail and the matter will be looked into.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7123534.stm
I note that only now does this story merit a listing in the BBC’s main UK news section. Ho hum…
Whhops! Sorry Mike!! I was trying to do “blockquote”, not “bold”. Did not mean to shout. :%
4 If there’s a Sedgefield re-run (big caveat), a real chance for a LibDem gain there perhaps? Unless of course Tony gets the call from his party… “Tony, come back and save us from Gordon, Tony. You were right and we were wrong…”!!
5 You need to do some checking on Huckabee on US sites like Huffington Post, BuzzFlash and Daily Kos.
Huckabee is an amiable whacko. He, like Giuliani, has some amazing skeletons in his well-stocked wardrobe. The Republicans are in big trouble whatever the result of the Iowa caucuses; their only hope is that Clinton wins the Democratic nomination
Malcolm
5- He served 2 full terms. But Governor Tucker resigned before the end of his term, so Huckabee became governor in 1996
6 what is just as amazing is that despite somebody coming on TV and saying “a crime has been committed” the police need an ‘email’ before they can be bothered actually investigating the crime and seeking to prosecute the perpetrators.
The police might not like having to get involved in the solving of openly admitted crimes but they seem incredibly slow off the mark.
I cannot see now how Alexander can survive.
The Harman mortgage will be the next thing in England to be investigated. Assuming it’s a joint mortgage what on Earth did Jack Dromey think it was for? He can’t have believed it was for Harriet’s election campaign or he would have been colluding in an offence. The ex-Solicitor General can’t have thought it was for her campaign either or she would have declared it just as she did with the other contributions she made.
Alexander will go first, followed by Harman. Labour need to face up to the endemic ineptitude/stupidity and/or criminality of so many senior officials.
2. Great spot Tom Ainsworth. I’ve had some 1/3 with William Hill and also toook some 1/4 with Paddy Power last night. Hills 1/3 is still freely available.
12. Or should that be “freely” available?
Re 6. Spot on. This is now seems to be the only reported news story in Scotland. On Politics Show Brian Taylor suggesting that Wendy is keen to resign but Brown putting a lot of pressure on her not to because afraid of the “domino” impact (via Heriott). Suggestions also made Wendy’s team may have broken the law in several ways. It seems that if she does not resign soon Scottish Labour will suffer a lot more damage.
8. The last parliamentary by-election caused by electoral fraud was Oxford in 1924…
11 “Assuming it’s a joint mortgage what on Earth did Jack Dromey think it was for?”
A REALLY expensive umbrella?
It takes a considerable amount of self-belief to take out big mortgages to fund a campaign which not many gave her any chance of winning. Makes one idly wonder if she was given some comfort that her campaign would ultimately be underwritten by someone?
5/10 - Sorry, yes elected twice and served two years prior to the ‘98 election after his predecessor was forced out over the whitewater affair.
As for the “creationist tag” in the state’s it shouldn’t be too much of a problem (certainly not within the GOP primaries at least), GWB was elected in 2000 while a confirmed creationist. And while things might have changed somewhat, with the political wind very much against the GOP in ‘08, I don’t think the creationist tag would hamper a Huckabee candidacy that much I certainly cant see any way the DNC could hope to exploit it (I can see many votes in Ohio, Iowa, West Virginia etc… with what would be seen as belittling someone’s religious faith) .
Wonderful comment from Geoff Buffoon on the Politics show that Brown ‘is not that interested matters of money…certainly not as it effects him personally or the party’.
Was he really talking about an ex-Chancellor?
16 LOL
:-):-)
17-Huckabee is an amazing politician (I’m not saying that I agree with him). The guy can be funny and still be serious. And he seems sincere, he talks about religion in a way that none of the other candidates can (and this is really important for the Republicans). And he always talks about cut taxes (even if some times they are not “thought through”). In the last debate he was really good. If he wins in Iowa, will he win in NH too?
16 - Obviously i’m not privy to the Harman’s private finances, but i’m surprised she couldn’t substantially fund the thing herself.
11 - I think that, especially in such sensitive areas as politics, the police really can’t go about digging into potential crimes on their own initiative.
If the delivering and receiving of a formal complaint is all that is needed to maintain the impression of neutrality in the police force then i don’t really think that is too much of a problem to be overcome.
“They’re purring now, but Rupert’s paper tigers might go for the jugular”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/02/pressandpublishing.businessandmedia2?gusrc=rss&feed=media
re 2 thanks too. It’s the first time I’ve done this sort of thing and I’m now green whatever happens. I got £50 on at 1/3. Surely it can’t last much longer.
Just wondering: With all the primaries crunched up in a short space of time everyone’s been saying that candidates need a huge amount of money to win; Clinton and Obama, and to a lesser extent the Republican front-runners, have already amassed quite a bit. Is it realistic to expect a candidate who hasn’t already got a decent war-chest to be able to build one up, and put the money to good use, in the few weeks between Iowa and Super Tuesday?
The implications being:
- If you can’t win without the money, Huckabee might win Iowa, but you can forget about him for the nomination. (Although you might build up a short-term position in the hope that if he wins Iowa you’ll find someone foolish enough to believe he’ll go all the way.)
- If you can win without the money (ie. you can either campaign successfully on the cheap or you can fund-raise adequately on the back of an Iowa win), maybe the value in the Democratic race is now with Edwards - bearing in mind that the Iowa and North Hampshire polls are of limited use given how hard it is to figure out who’s going to vote, and the leads we’ve seen aren’t far off the polls’ margin of error.
Fundraising numbers for both parties are here:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp
6 - Given the furor over McLetchie’s taxi receipts and the behaviour of their attack dogs in the press over a similarly small sum, I suspect many Tories are quite disinclined to come to Labour’s aid. Personally, I find the glee with which all parties pounce on some nit-picking irregularity one of the most depressing aspects of Scottish politics.
On another note, I was talking to an MSP recently who offered an interesting assessment of the state of play in the Parliament vis-a-via the Tories. The MSP made two points. Firstly, the Labour/Liberals used to treat the Tories with disdain even when the Tories supported them - strangely they seem to have taken a different line recently. However, years of being treated as untouchables means the Tories feel no natural affinity with their new-found unionist friends and, I believe, Tories votes are roughly split 50/50 between supporting SNP and Labour measures.
Secondly, Labour grew so used to the apparatus of state that they’re quite lost now without it. The MSP cited the notable drop in quality in Labour speeches in Parliament as symptomatic of a party that has got too used to a government infrastructure to help them out and who now can’t fend well for themselves.
20 - There would be a lot of momentum behind Huckabee going into New Hampshire if he were to win in Iowa (much as there would be Obama were to win there as well).
IIRC Iowa doesn’t have the same status within the GOP’s nominating tradition that it has for the Dems, having said that, this cycle looks to have changed the attitude to the state’s caucus within the GOP (as the way in Guliani’s “big state strategy” has been abandoned aptly illustrates).
Iowa very much a Huckabee/Romney fight ,but in New Hampshire the field is a good deal more crowded with Gulianni, McCain and Thompson (remember him?) all focusing their efforts there, but the upshot of that could be to Huckabee’s advantage with all those candidates (plus Romney - probably wounded by his failure to win in Iowa) very much clustered around the party’s centre… the result probably being that a win in Iowa could well allow Huckabee to win through in New Hampshire against what could be a very split field.
The obvious means by which Huckabee could be halted following a win in Iowa IMHO would be for Romney to do sufficiently poorly there to be out of the running in NH and to give Gulianni the chance to corner the centrist republican and independent voters in the state… in fact Gulianni’s campaign is probably hoping for Huckabee to at least maul Romney in Iowa to give their candidate a chance to emerge in New Hampshire. Also, dont count out McCain in New Hampshire (where he has pretty much set up shop since the summer and has a strong organization).
26 - “There is something reassuring about Scottish scandals, they seem so puny when set against their southern cousins. Instead of hidden donations reaching upwards of £650,000, we have Wendy Alexander receiving £950 from someone in the Channel Islands. Instead of 25m lost records, we have a few hundred misplaced files of NHS staff. When someone fiddles their expenses, it’s no bunch of brown envelopes but a taxi chit for a few pounds that brings them down.”
When men are pure, laws are useless; when men are corrupt, laws are broken.
Benjamin Disraeli
It’s being put about that the only reason Wendy Alexander hasn’t resigned is because Gordon Brown won’t “let her”. Not sure what this says about Scottish autonomy, but it seems a particular silly attempt to limit damage if true.
I’ll write more if the Sunday talkies have anything interesting to say, but my gut feeling for trading is to sell at least half of any Huckabee position and buy Giuliani. He can’t help it, but I feel Huckabeee has peaked a little too soon. Romney and Thompson in particular are going to train a lot of their ad spending against Huckabee in the next month. Most people don’t realize that Huckabee isn’t getting the endorsement of real red-meat conservatives like Rush Limbaugh either because of his fiscal and immigration record in Arkansas. In short, Huckabee has done the easy bit and it will get tougher for him to advance from here, even if he continues to out-perform other candidates in TV debates.
Meanwhile, Obama has the funds and the likeability to stay competitive in Iowa. (Though I still think that his younger base of college educated supporters is less likely to vote on a wintry Jan 3rd than Hilary’s base of less educated blue collar democrats and college-educated women). In any case, if Iowa is close NH independents are more likely to register for the Dem primary than the GOP one. This in turn is probably fatal for the McCain camp and I guess he drops out before Feb 5. In turn, the natural home for McCain supporters is with Rudy.
Don’t write Romney off though. The anti-Guiliani vote will eventually coalesce around someone (though the longer that time is delayed, the better for Rudy) and Romney is the natural candidate – I cant see him losing NH. So if Romney’s numbers get worse in the next couple of weeks, look for an opportunity to buy him at a cheaper price.
28 - Jack McConnell having to register a Christmas present from his wife remains my particular favorite from this general sanctimonious genre.
Black humour
http://johnnyvoid.blogspot.com/
5- Creationism is a red herring. I doubt it’ll be an election issue. And Huckabee quite brilliantly handled a question about interpreting the Bible literally during the last CNN debate.
20 – I doubt if Huckabee can come close in NH even if he wins Iowa. The state demographics are very different, with NH increasingly full of college-educated moderates who’ve moved out from NY or Boston. And two-thirds of NH residents can watch Massachusetts TV stations, so it’s practically a second home base for Romney.
25- Good comment, but Edwards has been very active in Iowa and it isn’t working. If he gets squeezed in Iowa and NH I can’t see a path back for him.
slec: Do you think the various minor scandals around Guiliani have any potential to bite? I’d have assumed that things like the Sex On The City story, getting the NYPD to walk his mistress’s dog, etc would be potentially very damaging - can he really survive all this stuff?
27-The last poll I saw, Thompson didn’t have a chance.As he is nowhere near winning in Iowa and in the last poll his support was in 4%, he will have not just a little mountain to climb, but the Everest!
“Also, dont count out McCain in New Hampshire (where he has pretty much set up shop since the summer and has a strong organization).”
Never rule out him, specially when is the second in the poll.
As you said, Giuliani is probably hoping for a Huckabee win, because if Huckabee can “defeat” Romney in Iowa, I’m sure his lead in NH wouldn’t be of 8%.
BTW- Do you think that Hillary can survive losing in Iowa and NH?
It strikes me that we are seeing “Il Sorpasso” in Scottish politics. The Scottish National Party finally overtook Labour in terms of both the constituency and the regional list votes in May 2007; and now it is highly likely that the SNP are ahead in terms of both membership and finances.
When was the last time Scottish Labour dared to announce their membership numbers? I seem to remember they were at 16,500 about 18 months ago. I dread to think what they are at now!! Highly unlikely to exceed the 13,000 (from memory) of the SNP. Who exactly is going to canvass for Labour? Who is going to organise raffles and local fundraising? Do streetwork? Write to the papers? Promote the party by word of mouth? Organise? Do knock-ups?
Scottish Labour is dissolving before our very eyes. It is like that scene from The Wizard of Oz when the true, diminutive identity of the wizard is revealed to Dorothy and co.
Edmund @ 35 – it’s in the price. Those scandals have all been around forever. Nobody ever voted for Rudy because of his saint-like characteristics. Everyone already knows he is flawed, which is why he can’t break through 30% despite national recognition.
Of course if somebody spent a lot of money reminding votes of Rudy’s seamier side it could hurt a little. And the media naturally wants to keep the primary race competitive for as long a possible. But for any of this to happen the anti-Rudy forces have to unite around someone. And that hasn’t happened yet. Only Romney has the money and (more importantly) the national organization to challenge Rudy, but he isn’t in a position to attack Rudy on character just yet.
34-slec– So you don’t believe that Huckabee can built a “momentum”, and win in NH too?
“so it’s practically a second home base for Romney.”
Don’t you think that he has a very small lead in a place that is his second home base?
26. I don’t think the fact that Wendy’s aleged crime relates to a relatively modest sum is important you cannot be “a little bit quilty” and she could end up in jail!
30. I agree a daft attempt by Brown at damage limitation which highlights a lack of judgement on his part. Brown has exposed his party to a lot more criticm by attempting to keep Wendy in her job. All the indications are that she will ultimately be forced out but meantime the press will hound her and Labour in Scotland and UK will be further discredited.
Do you not think that Scottish Labour is suffering from a lack of high quality politicians? This isn’t an anti-Labour not an anti-Scottish point, just an almost inevitable product of the combination of Devolution and their own domination of Scotland at Westminster under FPTP. The sheer numbers of politicians at a national level that they have to provide from a small base creates problems of depth. And they haven’t yet reached a tipping point where most ambitious types see their future in Scotland.
40 - Proportionality would suggest a fine i would think. Not every crime which has the option of a jail sentence has to end that way. The crass way it has been handled can’t have helped though.
39 - I don’t think Huckabee is foolish enough to waste his precious dollars in NH even if he wins Iowa. If Huckabee wins Iowa then NH becomes a must-win for Romney and Romney will pour everything -and I mean everything - into NH.
There’s no point in Huckabee getting into an arms race with a billionaire in NH. He’d be better off pouring resources into South Carolina and Florida in an attempt to knock Thompson out of the race and become the natural home for Christian voters on Feb 5th
41
I think it’s more to do with the fact that for the best part of 30 years Labour have been dominant in Scots politics.. and in some areas - Glasgow - for around 100.
So you end up with jobsworths being elected: perfectly reasonable people with no great merits as politicians can win safe seats which ,if they were contested, they would never be selected for.
Just look at Wales or North England or the English Shires…
6: What is your realistic estimate of the percentage of people who could correctly name the Scottish Labour leader? Before this week I would say about 2%, and now, maybe, oooh, 4%.
I had not gathered until today that that was who she was, I had patronisingly assumed it was a man, (sorry…) I did dimly register that Jack McConnell was no more, but could not for a million pounds hvae told you who was.
So your surprise at it not being on the BBC news is , well, surprising.
41. Yes.It is noticeable that Robin Cook before and after his demotion was not interested in the top job in the Scottish Parliament. A question often asked in Scotland is when Brown ultimately gives up/loses his present job would he be prepared to retire to the Scottish Parliament? I doubt it.
45 - indeed. Even in Scotland people seemed blissfully unaware of the Scottish elections just a week before.
43-Even if Huckabee puts money in Florida, I doubt he could win, but as you say he can “knock Thompson out of the race”
Do you think that Romney recover if he loses in Iowa and NH?
Vaguely on topic - why is Robert Lindsay standing for US president?
49 - that’s not Robert Lindsay, it’s Tony Blair!
44. But you ignore the fact that many prominent Scottish politicians from the 3 main Unionist parties have reached top jobs at Westminister.
Guiliani has made absolutely no effort to win in Iowa, because he never stood a chance. Romney should not, under any circumstances, lose New Hampshire. Huckerbee just needs to beat the rest of the field - winning would just be a great bonus.
What I find interesting is that Guiliani will still be seen as the front runner based on national polls, in spite of coming at-best-third in Iowa, and no-better-than-second in NH.
The non-agression pact between Guiliani and Huckerbee (reported in today’s Telegraph) smacks of ticket-balancing. Expect Huckerbee to tone down campaigning in NH to allow Guiliani second place. Neither wants to run against Romney (Rudy would like the NE to himself, Huckerbee would like to be ‘the’ conservative with Executive experience), and I think the former Govenor of Arkansas is making a rather-unashamed pitch to be Rudy’s VP. He cannot raise the money needed for a Super-Duper-Tuesday, let alone a GE against someone like Hillary.
South Carolina is the interesting Republican primary for me, because unlike the Democratic primary in SC, it will be on the 19th, not the 29th, of January, which is he same day as the Nevada caucus. Romney needs to win one of these to show he has general appeal beyond New England.
In all seriousness, what odds will people offer me that no candidate for President achieves the Electoral College majority necessary?
52 - Giuliani is front runner because he could win the presidency, Huckerbee and Romney are very unlikely to be able to do that.
re 53 Morus who do you think the 3rd party candidate is going to be then?
53 - The thought had crossed my mind. Its one of two factors that makes the General Election hard to bet on. The other one is brought up by #55 - a third party candidate. That candidate is Lou Dobbs (plus Nader, but he’s a spent force)
55 There are two potential 3rd party candidates who could cause an upset.
The first is Bloomberg - massive personal wealth, a genuine centrist, maverick businessman, executive experience as mayor of NY. The reason he is especially dangerous is because of the likely parley (Clinton-Guiliani).
That messes up the New York vote horribly, and if (eg) the Republicans do not nominate a New Yorker, Bloomburg becomes even mre dangerous to the Democrats, because he appeals to all Republicans (as a spoiler), and any malcontents on the Democratic side.
The other, longer shot, Electoral College vote-winner is Ron Paul. He will almost certainly stand as Libertarian or Independent, as a strict constitutionalist. If Romney (Mormon) or Guiliani (Northeastern) gets the Republican nomination, I can see Texas siding with one of its own, because it is a fairly contrarian sort of state! This is a very long shot, but it could make things messy.
The only reason these candidates matter is that they come from ‘big’ states (more than 30 votes in the EC). If either managed to win their home state, it would be very difficult for the candidates to win an EC majority.
The other (really whacky) stat is that I have done some extensive analysis on the XIIth amendment and the mathematical possibilities of an Electoral College tie (269 vs 269). The last couple of elections there were 11 swing states, and 33 permutations that led to a 269-all tie. This time, I reckon there are up to 13 swing states (similar original 11 plus Massachussets, if Romney tops the ticket, and New York if Guiliani does), with 188 plausible permutations. This is still unspeakable long odds, but relatively likely compared to recent US elections, thanks to voter-reapportionment as a result of the last census.
So - no scenario above is likely, but all are more likely to prevent an EC majority than any previous election.
Once I have finished all the data crunching, I will publish all the data and permutations that could deliver the tie. It was a purely academic excercise, but fun for anyone interested in odds.
On a related topic, John McCain has been endorsed for the New Hampshire primary by one of the main newspapers there.
http://tinyurl.com/24y2zq
Looking at the comments below it still doesn’t good for him though!
OT, reading the papers today it looks like the ongoing credit crunch means interest rates may have to be cut earlier and more strongly than previously expected.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2982623.ece
in which case the 10/1 Vcbet offer of rates at 5% or less by March might have some value in it.
http://www.vcbet.com/coupon_outright.jsp?&eid=110660500&eid=&ot=200
37 I hate to point this out but Il Sorpasso was based on an Italian “reaccounting” on the size of their Economy and even on the “new reading” was very brief. I’m not sure that’s the comparison you’re looking for
Karl Rove, writing last week, “the Democratic nominee is likely to be Hillary. Not without a fight, not without losing early contests (probably Iowa, for starters) and not without bruises and bumps”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/71000
Interesting that he does not consider losing Iowa would cause the sort of panic that many have claimed would set in if she lost.
Bill never campaigned in Iowa, and she lacks the local network that Edwards in particular commands. As long as she wins New Hampshire, Iowa will not really matter to her. It is only ‘do or die’ for Edwards, and to a lesser extent, Obama.
57 Why should Bloomberg scooping GOP votes in NY bother the DLC? What happens if there is no EC majority is it simple FPTP or the first House Election since 1828………
59 - Disagree. Bloomberg would only run to win. It’s in his nature. If he doesn’t think he can win he won’t run. Believe me, there is absolutely no buzz about Mayor Mike here in NYC, except for his stance on a dispute with local taxi drivers. So forget about Bloomberg. He ain’t running.
A Ron Paul candidacy is I suppose worth contemplating at an intellectual level - until you get get into the real world and see his supporters on the streets. They are beyong whackco. Hare Krishna with guns. Plus he got booed a lot at the last debate. He is going to siphon off far fewer votes than his bloggers suggest.
What makes Lou Dobbs an interesting candiate is that he isn’t interested in winning. He’s just interested in promoting his agenda (and himself). He might just stand, but he has had some health problems.
Have to go back to the TV shows. So far the highlight has been yet another impressive interview by Huckabee, this time on ABC
58. off the top of my head I’d say about 100,000-1 ?
61 Bill was never even on the radar screen as nominee of the media until after NH. A far cry from Hillary who has been the media front runner for a year now
60. Punter
Ho ho. Yeah, I know, but it just sounds so cool
Poor old Italians!! They were so exhilirated… for a few weeks. Sob sob. Even the Scottish economy is a lot healthier!
63 - Given you are much closer to the ground, I defer to your better judgement! All I would say is that if a third-party wanted the circumstances to run, the four keys would be monetary funds, a big home state, executive office experience, and a weak incumbant or no incumbant at all. If Bloomberg ever wants to do this, it is now or never - might that sway his decision?
Ron Paul would throw every cent at Texas - it would be a protest against both parties, and he would love to win a state, and to force his agenda onto the national stage - $4m online donations in a single day last month smacks of a man with energetic support on the ground.
If no candidate won 270+ votes, the election would be thrown to Congress (House votes for President with one state getting one vote, decided by delegation’s internal vote - 26+ states needed to win: VP is chosen by Senate, one member one vote, but if 50-50 tie, not known if incumbent VP has casting vote. Also unclear whether outgoing or incoming Congress would decide. Depends on timetable.)
62. It goes to the House, with each state casting one vote..
65 My point was that Iowa and NH are classic cases of retail politics - just being big in national polls doesn’t help, which is why Rudy will tank there. You need leaders of Locals, and contacts in each small town.
Edwards assembled on-the-ground workers in 2004, and that will help him. Hillary has this organisation in a lot of places thanks to Bill’s campaigns in 1992 and 1996, but not in Iowa. That is why she will struggle. It is nothing to do with profile.
64 - I’ll bet you £10 at those odds.
Do you accept? (If so, Mike, I’ll need this one recorded!)
re 62 if no-one wins a majority in the electoral college then the representatives choose between the top three, each state having 1 vote. It then becomes like electing the pope, the winner needs 50% of the votes. If no-one is elected by 20th January then the VP takes over as president. Meanwhile the VP is chosen (if he doesn’t have a majority as well) from the top two on the list, by the senators , each senator having one vote.
68 What? Wyoming has the same vote as California err the yanks have fought for wars for less!
“re 88. Nick - I think that that is a wrong analysis. A Clegg-led Lib Dem party is more likely to attract Tory tactical voters in LD>CON marginals but less likely to attract Labour supporters in LD>CON ones. So in terms of seats that could be more helpful to Cameron than Brown.
If Huhne had done it then it would have worked the other way round
Mike Smithson” Err how is Clegg not attracting Labour voters in Lab/Con marginals good for the Conservatives. It means the Labour vote is not bing diverted away
re 67 the election must take place immediately after the electoral college votes are counted. The members of the electoral college will cast their votes on 15/12/08 and votes will be counted in Congress on 6/1/09 - so it’ll be the new Congress won’t it?
69 Not my point either. That was that being beat in Iowa mattered not to Bill beacuse no one yet took him seriously as the nominee so it didn’t matter, that’s why he could spin NH into the Comeback Kid story. By contrast Hillary has built up the aura of inevitability. If that cracks in Iowa/NH and say the African-American voters in SC begin to think that Obama can actually win she could have a real fight on
28.”26 - “There is something reassuring about Scottish scandals, they seem so puny when set against their southern cousins.”
Alex, Scottish politics is not for the squeamish and it is often leaks or briefings from enemies within your own party which cause the most damage.
41.”Do you not think that Scottish Labour is suffering from a lack of high quality politicians?” Yes, although to be fair I think its a problem for all parties in Scotland nowadays. I debated this point with my other half a couple of weeks ago, and we bemoaned the lack of real talent compared to the politicians that dominated Scottish politics 20 years ago.
72 - Because Labour waverers may vote for Cameron rather than Clegg?
I differ from Mike, however, in that I think that Clegg is more likely to appeal to labour supporters. Just look on here, the ones who like him, outwith his own party, tend to be labour supporters whilst tories are more impressed with Huhne. I think it’s a style thing as much as anything but it’s there and I expect the votes to follow. As such, I think that Clegg being elected would make it easier for the tories and would reduce the possibility of a hung parliament.
As for whether they ‘don’t really mean it’, I need only refer people to the tory view of Brown. Widely dismissed as running scared at the time we now know that it was the absolute truth.
70. I am unable to, clearly, at those odds… However, I am prepared to offer you a free bet and will donate £100 to a charity of your choice should it happen…
66 How do you read SNP Westminster chances. As I see it your big problem is your wretched 2005 means you can record major swings in most Labour-SNP targets without winning, plus won’t you hold cash back with an eye on 2011
75 Absolutely not for the squeamish as the tragedy of McMaster shows
76 Yes but OTOH, Huhne could appeal to Lab voters unable to countenance voting Tory. So apples and oranges….
76 - it’s not just about appealing to Tories to keep the seats in the south. Who would be more likely to squeeze the Labour votes in the south to keep LD seats?
O/T
“The succession chatter just got a lot louder”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/383476/the-succession-chatter-just-got-a-lot-louder.thtml
74 - Got you!! Fair point, but I think as long as she wins NH well, she’s ok.
73 - The new Congress is inaugurated in mid-January, whereas the result would be officially announced on 15th December. If the electoral college has not reached a conclusion, the old Congress would need to be summoned by the President to vote as soon as possible, as resolution would be required (at least on VP) before inauguration of POTUS on the 20th. Could they wait for the new Congress to come into session. I think the old Congress would be asked to vote on this, wouldn’t they?
I’ll check this definitively, and let you know tonight.
Wendy is not resigning. Confident of being exonerated etc etc same old same old….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7123534.stm
The Alexander Siblings: the gift that keeps on giving….
77 - There goes my million pounds!
The free bet, with proceeds to a charity of my choice, sounds a great idea - Mike, if this could be recorded, that would be grand.
78. The SNP take-off point is at 33% (as for all evenly-distrubuted parties anywhere under fptp).
As a rule of thumb.
For every 3% increase in the SNP vote above their 2005 18% share they gain 1 seat. (upto 33% of the vote)
For every 1% increase in the SNP vote above 33% they gain 3 seats…
SNP landslide majority occurs at around 39% of the Scottish vote…
78.*If* Labour goes into some sort of meltdown in Scotland at a Westminster GE, I think you will find that all three of the other parties will benefit to varying degrees in different area’s of the country below or above a uniform swing.
83.That is quite incredible! If you have not seen the Scottish Politics Show try and watch it if its available on line, I just caught up with it on the BBC Parliament channel and it is very relevant to the current Westminster story.
83. “Wendy is not resigning. Confident of being exonerated…”
Only of ‘intentional wrong doing’. Ignorance is not a defence.
I think Wendy should stay. She’ll do more damage to Labour and “whiter than white, change, no spin, and no funding scangals” Gordon.
His moral compass has just reset itself.. the needle points to hell..
Hi Gabble. A three-line whip to get everyone into the Bunker on a Sunday? Or are you here in your occassional “objective observer” role today?
“Ignorance is not a defence.” Just a pre-requisite to getting the job…
Clegg still priced at 1-3 by William Hill - good sports aren’t they? That said, I notice they have chopped back the odds against GB leaving office next year from 16s to 10s.
89. Anyone who supports Labour is appalled at the series of incompetent and dishonest(?) acts surrounding the latest funding scandals.
Wendy says “I offered myself to lead Labour in the Scottish parliament in the autumn because I believed and continue to believe I have a contribution to make to improve the lives of my fellow Scots.”
Well, if laughter is the best medicine, she has certainly done wonders for the Scottish NHS….
58. This may assist you in your endeavours..
http://www.columbia.edu/~ks20/Erik-sig-web.pdf
[incidentally, it is also persuasive evidence the 2000 election was stolen..]
My goodness, I cannot believe this. Christmas has come early.
91 Just not sufficiently “appalled” to resign, though, eh?
91-Do you believe that Labour will win the next election?
80 - Possible in some seats but in a fair few the squeeze may well have reached its peak, especially as a less nasty Cameron led party is liable to lead to tactical unwind by those who would be as happy with Cameron as Brown (to my mind the greatest problem that faces lib dem candidates).
The best way to keep/gain these seats is to be a stronger and more effective opposition to the government than the official opposition.
95. Resign?
98 Not you! Dear Wendy. (Unless you have some role in Labour’s finances???)
76 - Really? I haven’t noticed any Conservatives being particularly worried about Huhne. He’s a bit of a joke figure in some respects.
Of course it does not follow that just because Conservatives aren’t worried about Huhne that it would be against LibDem interests to choose him. That depends on how they view their political strategy developing over coming years and what they are trying to achieve.
96. I am certain that Labour will win the next election.
I am even more certain that the Tories cannot achieve an overall majority. They should be doing much better in the polls, especially after the last fortnight ie. blanket media coverage: week 1 ‘Labour incompetence’, week 2 ‘Labour dishonesty’.
The pundits here at the mo are really warm on Huckabee. i havent seen a single one go negative on him and his performance. what they do draw attention is his cash position.
The one fly in the ointment for him that he seems to have avoided is that his views on illegal immigrants. Huckabee is not a hardliner and in fact isnt massively different from mccain who we know is considered at odds with the GOP base on this.
Some pundits have pointed out that Huckabee isnt as strident on this issue as the base he is apparently fishing in. compare with Romney who was and will atttack Huckabee as being a bit soft. Yet Huckabee is the one striding on.
Is it that Huckabee can simply get away with the position he has because he’s teflon at the moment. Is he more in tune with the base in Iowa than the pundits think on immigration. Is it because he hasnt faced a big attck on his position or is it just that Romne is plastic and is being seen as such?
One final thing, McCain asked this morning on TV about a McCain Huckabee VP ticket.He responded by saying he could see the scenario.
By the way anyone bettng on Iowa should check out how the caucus process works as its not a simple go to the polls and vote.
By the way the GOP debate on immigration puts our own to shame. Way more mature.
81 - I’m shocked that anybody could refer to John Rentoul as a “serious commentator”. He is as arch Blairite as they come.
97 - “Possible in some seats but in a fair few the squeeze may well have reached its peak”. Some seats the challenge is to apply a squeeze - eg Eastleigh, where there are plenty of Labour votes to squeeze.
In other seats, the big challenge to maintain the existing squeeze. There has been a fair bit of seepage back to Labour in some seats - I think Torbay is one, where Labour’s vote went up last time.
101-Are you certain that Labour will win with Brown as leader?
101 - Conservatives should be doing better, or Labour should be doing worse?
103-I think so too. But add to this, Miliburn’s article in the Sunday Times, and we will see that the blairites aren’t “that” loyal anymore. For me this: “Give him a year and not only will he be ready, but the country will also be ready for him.” shows how arch-blairite he can be!
The real risk for the LibDems, it seems to me, is that by the time the next GE comes around Gordon will be so reviled - and there will be such a determination to boot him out - that a swathe of potential/former LibDem voters will not take the slightest risk with a LibDem vote that might help keep him in power. The disenchantment in England will be focussed through the Tory vote - as the only certain way of “kicking the bums out”. In Scotland, it will be a wet dream for the SNP.
If it is 2010, then the Tories will have had a couple more years to scrub themselves with political bleach. (This extra time for rehabilitation of the Tories was another reason why bottling it was a bad idea. That said, perhaps someone had a sneaking idea that the recent events would start to filter out - which would have been disastrous for Labour in a GE campaign.)
105. Yes. I’m no great fan of Brown but I wouldn’t underestimate him as a politician.
It’s a hell of a job to be parachuted into but he’ll emerge stronger from these various ordeals. After all, he does have time on his side.
I have no news for you on the Russian elections. It is so dull. There may be only two parties reaching the 7% threshold - Putin’s and the Communists.
100 - If you check back you can see tories being impressed with Huhne and labourites impressed with Clegg (although that includes Roger and with his backing record…..).
I also think it is that, as Huhne is being tougher on the government, tories appreciate that more.
78 Punter
And after his suicide, who was it who replaced Gordon McMaster as MP for Paisley South? Douglas Alexander…
http://heritage.scotsman.com/videos.cfm?vid=53
On the subject of “sorpasso”, I think it is fairly safe to say that the term has come to refer more generally to instances of the up-and-coming group overtaking an established presence. I seem to remember that over Christmas during the 1995 - 96 calcio season, there was much talk (indeed clamour) in the Gazzetta dello Sport, Guerin Sportivo, Tuttosport et al for Fiorentina to overtake AC Milan at the top of Serie A, with the former being only a couple of points and hence one weekend of fixtures away, from doing so.
Of course it never happened but the Curva Fiesole had that brief moment of hope. Seems an age away after all the subsequent scandals …
102-Thanks for the analysis. I think Huckabee can get away, because he built a “momentum” and because when he talks about immigration he uses religion too, I mean this: “And we need to sit down as Americans and recognize these are God’s children as well.”
114-Sorry, actually who said that was McCain!
97 I agree there are far more LD MPs in Gidley’s shoes with little or no Labour vote left to squeeze than Huhne who is in the much rarer and fortunate circumstance of having a larg Labour vote he’s yet to tap
114- About Huckabee and immigration
http://hangrightpolitics.com/2007/11/17/the-candidates-on-illegal-immigration-mike-huckabee/
106. The Tories should be doing much better.
It’s been an incredible decade for Labour in the polls - never far from the lead.
Normal service has been resumed with these latest polls ie. oppsition ahead in mid-term followed by defeat at the GE.
107 - Rentoul is also ignoring the fact that Miliband was only seen as the “alternative” earlier in the year because everyone else backed Brown or otherwise pulled out/did other things before even any hint of a bandwagon could start gathering behind them. The idea that a non-Brown leadership election would give him anything approaching a clear ride to the summit is a somewhat unlikely proposition.
101 week 3 et more revelations, week 4/5 resignations/ Inspector Knacker calls, Week 6 Labour polling at 25 or less%, week 7 unrest in the party and so on and so forth, its the beginning of the end Gabble, you just cant see it.
102. More mature? Is that satire? Being in the US at the moment the Republican immigration debate has been all about demonising immigrants and their children, touched with a shade of racism against Hispanics, filled with arguments about “stealing our jobs”. And this is in a country where a heck of a lot more of the economy, especially in the South, would collapse without the current illegal immigrants. It’s like the unpleasant implied hints of Howard’s 2005 GE campaign shouted from rooftops with megaphones. The GOP will lose the Hispanic vote (which should be naturally theirs) for a generation over this.
Compare that to the UK where Cameron has talked very reasonably about population pressures, burdens on the NHS, problems with keeping down the poors wages etc in a very deracialised way.
118 - apart from having seemed to have completely missed the distinction in 106 (if Labour are at rock bottom then it is illogical to say that their recent woes should lead to the Conservatives doing better), what is this “normal service” you refer to?
Are you saying that oppositions can only win elections if they are behind in the polls mid-term?
If Huhne doesn’t win the leadership, he will lose his seat next time. I would suggest he might not even contest it.
Er… did someone say 100,000/1 against a 269-269 split? If the realistic possibilities are anything from (say) 100-438 to 438-100, then 269-269 should be considered to be much more likely than that. How about 100/1?
109/118-I was looking for one article and I found it:
“Gordon Brown is neither a magus nor unlucky”
“If the Prime Minister is to recover, as he can and should, then he will emerge stronger.”
Rentoul piece is essential reading. He claims the voters want Bair back and are preparded to vote for Dave because he is the closest thing available - insanity within Labour is more widespread than I’d thought!
123 - “If Huhne doesn’t win the leadership, he will lose his seat next time. I would suggest he might not even contest it.”
If he contests it, he will win easily. The local election results were pretty dire for the Tories in Eastleigh.
It is more likely that he won’t contest it. But I am sure he will.
118 Gabble not understood
127 - it is more likely that he won’t contest it, than he will lose it if he does?
Is there something he’s not telling us?
120. We’ve already had resignations and the police called frequently and spectacularly during the cash-for-honours investigation.
I’m not a member, but I sense the Labour party are united behind Brown and more or less united behind policy.
The media may have successfully convinced you and others that Brown is personally responsible for everything that’s happened but I don’t think Labour supporters have been taken in.
119-Totally agree. I don’t know why but I can’t see Miliband as prime minister, strange thing!The idea that Brown would “give away” easily, without fighting his “enemies” in the Labour party is rubbish.
125-I forgot the link!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/28/do2802.xml
129 - no, I am not hiding anything. It is possible that he may feel fed up if he loses and go and do something else - something environmental? I’m pretty sure he’ll stand though, and get in with a majority of over 6,000.
It was hants at 123 - not a name I recognise (though probably a regular in disguise) who implied he may not stand.
133 - Gold mining?
Does anyone know why the Times/Sunday Times are being used to pursue smear campaigns against leading US politicians?
118 Are you comparing the primitive Polling techniques of the 1980’s and earlier with now?
116 - I think I am right in saying that the Labour vote went up in LD / Tory battleground seats last time. Andrea?
And forget Gidley. Romsey will.
122. “Are you saying that oppositions can only win elections if they are behind in the polls mid-term?”
No - I am saying that the Tories should be much further ahead during this particularly bad time for the government.
133 Hmm. I think Huhne will survive regardless but I think only easily if he is Leader
134 - I think I have seen this story before. Anyone remember? Has it been reheated by the Clegg campaign?
136 In Tory held seats that were L targets yes I think but not that much in LD held Tory targets my point. Your Gidley point is………
Shame, derision and ridicule be hurled upon me, but in defiance of with all these incredible electoral models, I believe that were the next election result to produce an 11% Tory vote lead, then the party will have a very comfortable overall majority (50?)because that’s how dear old FPTP will work.
Not much else to add from the rest of the Sunday pundits, except that they were probably harsher on Rudy than I was in my earlier posts. The general consensus is that Rudy would be in an awful lot more trouble were it not for Huckabee preventing a clear anti-Rudy candidate arising. Sure the scandals surrounding him are not new, but the feeling is that a drip-drip reminder of Rudy’s chequered past harms him, especially any reminders of New York’s sanctuary city status, or reminders of his adultery (which will hurt him with women voters). People are also sick of the “when I was mayor of New York City…” line.
Do not write off Romney. If (big if) he can hold off Huckabee in Iowa he’s probably in pole position for NH, Michigan, SC and the nomination.
One reason Huckabee gets an easy ride from the pundits is that he is probably the best GOP communicator since the Gipper.
On the dem side, the general feeling is that Obama has turned the corner and is a credible contender again for NH if he can win Iowa. I hadn’t realized that Oprah’s viewership is so skewed towards over-50s women, a key voting demographic in the dem primaries. So her endorsement really helps in the early states, and not just, as I had thought, among African Americans in South Carolina. Interestingly, the number of undecided voters in SC has now risen to 50%.
41. “Do you not think that Scottish Labour is suffering from a lack of high quality politicians? This isn’t an anti-Labour not an anti-Scottish point, just an almost inevitable product of the combination of Devolution and their own domination of Scotland at Westminster under FPTP. The sheer numbers of politicians at a national level that they have to provide from a small base creates problems of depth.”
Their 1999 selection committee probably didn’t help. McKenna and co when setting up the list of candidates allowed to apply for constituencies didn’t allow some Westminster MPs to run for Holyrood (not that those who tried and were rejected were the greatest political mind on earth…but considering some who passed the commmittee verdict…). And considering there have not been many retirements, that Lab has not gained many FPTP seats in 2003 or 2007 and that the majority of their MSPs come from the FPTP part, their Holyrood group is mainly done from people from the 1999 class
137 - Right can we pin this down, we should have done it much earlier.
What do Labour supporters feel the polls need to be showing for the line “Tories should be doing much better” to be invalid?
Could we also establish the levels of support such that this line will be invalid for
a) Labour to lose their majority
b) Conservatives to be largest party and able to form a minority govt
c) Conservatives to be forming a comfortable majority govt
d) Conservative landslide
140 - my Gidley point is: I am willing to bet of Gidley holding her seat - but only at odds of 1,000 to 1. Anybody willing to offer me those odds?
137: Which suggests that you don’t understand that comparing how things operated in the past with silly polls is no longer the case.
141 - Get yourself a model John, and you will be heard with reverence!
130
The diehards might not have been taken in, but I think theres going to be some nasty political infighting for the soul of the Labour Party over the next few months. The sleaze cloud lingering over the Labour Party is a stench that not even the best proprietary brand can remove.
148 - could we see some crossing of the floor from Labour? Who and where too? Will Skinner join the LDs? Will Corbyn cuddle up to Cameron?
Well Stuart will be relieved to know that the Scottish angle on the donor scandal has now climbed to the top of the BBC news this afternoon.
Wendy Alexander is hanging on by her fingertips and what we are seeing as Brian Taylor pointed out, is a real power struggle between the Westminster Labour party vs the Scottish Labour party with wee Wendy stuck in the middle. The stakes are high, should she stay to help Brown protect some of his Westminster chums, or should she go to protect her own party in her own back yard?