Team Huhne claim late survey boost
December 5th, 2007
Could it be closer than YouGov was suggesting?
Chris Huhne’s campaign team have released details of a survey by an independent third party organisation which, they say, suggests a late surge in support of their man. The data purports to show that there’s been a big reduction in the number of undecided voters has fallen dramatically over the past ten days (from 38.4% to 17.5%) and that these members have plumped overwhelmingly for the older contender.
These are the figures:
Chris Huhne definite - 44.7%
Nick Clegg definite - 15.2%
Chris Huhne leaning - 5.3%
Nick Clegg leaning - 1.5%
Undecided - 17.5%
Won’t say - 14.4%
The campaign says that the survey of 1,000 randomly selected Party members was carried out by an independent organisation in three batches and that the figures above reflect the data acquired over the period 27 Nov - 4 Dec. Amalgamating the definite and leaning support and giving Nick Clegg all the “won’t say” responses, indicates that members’ support at the moment is splitting in the region of 50% Chris Huhne, 30% Nick Clegg with just under 20% undecided.
I have quizzed Huhne’s campaign manager about how this was carried out. The “pollster” was not one of the conventional firms but a market research company which for various reasons they do not want to name publicly though I have been told who it was.
So what are we to make of it? That there is a move to Huhne seems to chime with other signs but it is hard to measure the scale and to assess the impact on the outcome given that a large number of members have already voted.
My reaction has been to cut back by half my £900 betting exposure on Clegg.
Mike Smithson
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Ha Ha! - great photo.
As I said earlier - these are suspiously good figures for Huhne.
“My reaction has been to cut back by half my £900 betting exposure on Clegg.”
That has to be wise, Mike. The nature of the contest and the difficulty of obtaining reliable soundings make it a tricky betting proposition.
Clegg will probably win, but it’s not one to bet the house on.
Curious about some outside company having access to 1000 randomly-selected members. Do the LibDems give candidates for the leadership a list of all members and phone numbers to play with?
Yougov probably have 1,000 or so LibDem members on their panel but they are of course self selected and not random .
Hmm.. Well I am happy as I have a better position on Huhne than Clegg, and thought he might just scrape it. That said that is not a firm prediction like the one about Gordon Brown.
3- peter the punter- I would guess that this bet by Mike on Clegg was one of those he didn’t ideologically feel right with; a bit like those of us who do well by backing against England in the football, or the cricket, or any sport for that matter.
I would think Mike would feel happy if Huhne wins, he loses a few squid, but his man wins. Fair enough.
Mike, for all his skills, and there are many, just cannot be that objective. The LD leadership contest is one area where he looks slightly one sided.
Mr Palmer @ 4.
Are you infering skullduggery in bar chart Nirvana ?
Re 8, Peter Jacques, “Are you infering skullduggery in bar chart Nirvana ?”
Surely not! Every one knows the proberty with which Liberal Democrat bar charts are created!
Almost EVERYONE I know has voted Clegg, but think he’ll need to up his game.
Benedict @ 9.
Quite so Benedict. Indeed I’m astonished that the the writers of the greaest bar chart fictions haven’t been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Literature.
4 Nick- off thread- I have finally come to terms that I cannot under any circumstances support Gordon Brown’s Labour. I cannot stand the stress of being in a country where I perceive my government is out of control, and have been unable to buy any newspapers of any kind for over a week. This said as someone with an OCD compulsion to buy a daily newspaper, except when abroad, and then to try and track down an out of date one for 4 euros. The news is just too depressing.
Why did you not test Brown’s leadership qualities with a proper contest? It wasn’t just the Labour party that was at stake, but the PM’s job for our country. The guy is not up to it. Even my Italian friends are starting to take the mickey, and they suffered from Berlursconi.
10. Yellafella - what constituency are you in. Are you younger than 30 may I ask?
13. Cameron’s Conservatives will be happy to welcome you, Tyson!
Hmm. I’m pretty dubious about this although it would be pretty nefarious. I think it might be something on the lines of asking people leading questions (’Who do you think is the better economist? More concerned about environemtnal issues? More experienced? Now who would you prefer as leader?’ kind of approach, with questions tailored to Huhne’s strengths and Clegg’s weaknesses.)
Anyway, even if there is a late swing, if there was 12% in it there would have to be a massive swing now from teh last quarter to vote. There might have been less, but even a 672 voter poll should give voting intentions plus or minus about 4%, assuming a random sample.
I’d be surprised if Huhne hadn’t biased this a bit in the way I suggested.
Sorry to lose you, Tyson - but you’re perceiving the government through the press at a time when they’re pursuing the ‘out of control’ narrative which doesn’t correspond with my perception from inside. Obviously I would say that, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true!
8 - no, it all seems quite open. I just thought it odd!
Re 11, Peter Jacques “Quite so Benedict. Indeed I’m astonished that the the writers of the greaest bar chart fictions haven’t been nominated for the Nobel Prize for Literature.”
Re 12 Tyson “Why did you not test Brown’s leadership qualities with a proper contest? It wasn’t just the Labour party that was at stake, but the PM’s job for our country. The guy is not up to it. Even my Italian friends are starting to take the mickey, and they suffered from Berlursconi.”
Gordon Brown is not your favourite PM is he?
17 - I would say some of the bar charts qualify for the Turner Prize for Art. Perhaps so we can really be “winning here” we should make bar charts out of elephant dung.
Re 19 SBS “I would say some of the bar charts qualify for the Turner Prize for Art. Perhaps so we can really be “winning here” we should make bar charts out of elephant dung.”
16- Nick Palmer- the issue that I see is that the latest problems, the missing discs, donorgate are just problems in politics. A resilient government would have shrugged them off, maybe the odd head would roll. In reality no REAL harm has been done.
But the media frenzy, and the hyping of these “minor” problems shows to me a government out of its depth, that has lost complete and utter control with management. Every minor thing is a million times worse. And it will continue, because the main function of government is to manage bad news stories with competence. And if you cannot do that well, you are knackered.
So Brown looks to be like Steve McLaren. Worse because at least McLaren was English. When you are not up to the job, you are not perceived up to the job, you ARE not up to the job. Full stop.
Ed Balls has no right running a department that is responsible for millions of people, billions of pounds. He has no experience outside politics to do a job like this. Why did Brown think that he could put someone like Balls running education?
Why did Brown think he could split the defence ministry when we are running 2 wars, and theatening another that could be much, much worse? How does this look? How does Brown feel when he announces the deaths of new soldiers every week? How would he feel if he lost his son, and his PM gave such disdain to the ministry of defence?
I cannot understand this arrogance. I cannot understand why Brown would not have subjected himself to a leadership contest to be PM of our country. I am utterly depressed about our political situation.
I think Chris Huhne’s poll above is actually made of elephant or some other dung.
I can’t fathom what this poll is supposed to be saying…
Did it sample all LibDems? Just those who haven’t voted? Those who haven’t made their minds up?
What was the three batches thing? Is this just the second batch? Were the batches equal size? And so on and so forth…
Nick P @16 “pursuing the ‘out of control’ narrative” …!
Errr the media are calling labour ‘Corrupt’ and ‘Sleazy’ the man in the street is not blind or stupid and uses for less restrained words to describe your party.
Matthew Paris explained Labours corruption and sleaze perfectly about eight or nine years ago, when the first scandals arose and no one seemed to care.
It is like throwing boulders into a lake. At first they seem to disappear. Massive boulders are thrown in, and for all the ripples, ultimately the serene surface is restored, and it is as if nothing happened. Then suddenly one doesn’t sink: it rests on all the other boulders, and everyone notices it. This last boulder doesn’t have to be a particularly big one, either.
18- Benedict- I feel sorry for Brown really, a guy who falls so well short of what one would expect. I do not dislike him because I think underneath all his personal problems he is a decent bloke. Also, without his ego, and without taking on the insurmountable challenges of being PM, he would have had a lasting reputation. Instead people feel pity for him, and think that he is out of his depth.
24- as said a government’s competence is judged by its ability to manage bad news. This govt is no more sleazy than Blairs, and certainly no more sleazy that the Tories. At the moment it has lost complete control of the media- a bit like Steve McLaren
26 “a bit like Steve McLaren”… and Graham Taylor, Kevin Keegan, Glenn Hoddle, Sven-Goran Erikson…
27-SBS- almost, but not quite- the exception that Sven was a cut above, left on his own terms, pretty good track record, rather like Blair (I am a City fan don’t you know)
I think Brown is worse than Graham Taylor
28 Agree with you about Sven, Tyson.
And they ALL had the excuse they worked for the FA…the sweet FA.
Graham Taylor is now highly respected.
Peter the Punter- Sven is rapidly turning into a hero, along with Murali- Lancs connection here. Transcends nationality with us Mancs.
re 29 if we’re onto football I heard on Yesterday in Parliament this morning that the England women’s team had qualified for next year’s Olympics but the 4 national FA’s won’t let them compete. That’s outrageous.
Guido has a story about Darling… Cash for Access with Deutsche Bank & city types.
Labour are untouchable!
28. Tyson, do you object to the policies of the government? If so, which party do you feel offer better policies?
Your past allegiance must have been based on more than media perception?
33. I think this story was successfully rubbished on the previous thread.
28. Tyson.
So… what will you do?
Who will you vote for? Or will you abstain?
(just curious, not pressuring you to vote Tory or anything!!)
Tyson 12 - Are you genuine? Hope you don’t mind me asking because if you are I feel exactly the same as you.
I just don’t for the life of me understand why Labour let themselves get into the position of having to let Brown take the leadership without challenge. I’m so disappointed - he has turned out to be just as I expected.
Not quite sure who I can vote for next time, but I have promised myself it won’t be for Brown.
34- Gabble- I am absolutely tribal Labour- which policies though do I disagree with- hmmm, let me think;
58 days detention, ID cards, priority NHS treatment for veterans, children’s database; 18% corporation tax; hiking up the lower end of income tax, delaying the index link pensions, PFI’s, building an extra 10,000 prison places after already raising our prison population to record levels, more PFI’s, targets, targets, targets, Gershon efficiency savings, separating commissioning and provision in PCT’s, devolving education budgets, faith schools, trust schools, 2 wars, loads of unnecessary criminal justice legislation, loads of stupid anti terror legislation, nuclear bombs, nuclear energy- and MOST hideous of all- support for BADGER CULLING.
Sorry Gabble that is just a starter for 10
37 p.s. maybe I should add I have always generally suppported Labour (although not tribally) and have joined in the occasional campaign.
An 82.5% turnout would be remarkable.
I only voted today, to give myself more campaign-assessment time, and felt that I’d left it till the last minute given the possibility of postal delays etc..
stjohn - you may wish to feed another “Huhne” into your calculator.
38.Tyson - You must be a natural LD - perhaps I should join the Labour Party!
35 I know. Its brilliant.
We can do whatever we want.
Our members in the BBC and our friend Rupert Murdoch will gloss over anything.
Ian Blair wont move against us. Even if he did, we can rubbish it at the CCP stage.
No body cares about defence cuts. New immigrant Labour voters arrive every day. Even with the stories, we can still rubbish them and have enough to form a majority at the next General Election.
Labour is untouchable. We can do ANYTHING we want.
37-Jack O- you cannot believe how disillusioned I am! The worse thing about Brown is I cannot believe just how he is just so obsessed about politics, and has surrounded himself with people who only know about politics.
For me I am all the more disappointed because I thought he was going to do so much more better
21 Ed Balls has no right running a department that is responsible for millions of people, billions of pounds. He has no experience outside politics to do a job like this. Why did Brown think that he could put someone like Balls running education?
the single best post on PB for days - Balls is hopelessly out of his depth at this level and some of his plans for education are barking mad. Beyond the obvious acceptance of low grade and embarrassing criminality amongst senior Labour Party figues and members of the cabinet appointments like that of Balls really show that Brown lacks the courage to define himself except by the nobodies that surround him.
Just to even things up - I’m not fond of Gove’s ’sit everyone in rows and get them to decline Latin verbs’ approach either , but Balls is simply not up to his job and neither I feel is Brown. I think he hates being PM because it’s not the job he thought it was. There’s no escape nw though, for him or the Labour party.
38. Well…I think that just about covers everything.
Labour ‘83 must be a fond memory?
This story from the Huhne camp looks like a variation on the “Its a two horse race” “its neck and neck” spin.
In other elections I understood that candidates were not allowed to quote polls back to the electorate in an election period?
Re 25, Tyson, fair enough.
We did all warn you folks though… I won’t say I told you so though… even if I did
35/45. Gabble - Can you stop being a tw*t for just one second??
You seem to be surly and sarcastic to as many posters as possible on here. Even when you try to be “funny” you just come across as a kn0bber.
38 Tyson, are you sure?
You dont need to worry about these problems. All of them have been rubbished on previous threads.
We will still win the next election. Even if it looks like we may lose, we can change the law to make it difficult for the tories to raise money or canvas. With hate laws we can even ban tories from standing in elections as Toryism is a form of hatred in itself.
- opposition to immigration is a racist.
- priority NHS treatment for veterans is clearly racist.
- index link pensions are racist because pensioners are disproportionately white
- opposing new prisons is racist as 50% of prison inmates are immigrants and room needs to be made to address the imbalance
- faith schools, ie Christian, racist
44 Kingbongo
Am I alone in thinking that it was a strange portfolio to give somebody like Balls? I mean, the man is an economist by training, and as far as I can make out more of a strategist and thinker than an administrator. (Let’s not get into whether he’s any good at any of this; I’m just raising a simple question here.)
Why this of all Cabinet posts?
45- Gabble- minimum wage, BOE independence, civil partnerships, house of lords reform (partial), economic effectiveness, increased investment in health and education- these are all now part of the political settlement in the UK that will not be reversed by any government- all Labour achievements.
Brown’s premiership though is just one long struggle
44 kingbongo- what happened to the likes of Rhodes-Boyson in education policy? If you didn’t agree with them , you knew that they had bought the t-shirt.
47 No, but few here have more right to be smug than you, Benedict, if only for your stoicism through the toughest of times for your Party.
Did you get the emails? I do hope it won’t grieve you too much if we win. I discussed a ‘late entry’ with The Committee but in the end there were too many practical difficulties. We are after all talking about about a chunky investment - about £1,000 - and a very considerable sum should we hit the jackpot.
Next year, eh?
46. Um… actually, it *is* a two-horse race. Not that that means I give much respect to this poll, though.
I look forward to seeing the Chris Huhne bar charts soon!
Re 52, Peter the Punter “47 No, but few here have more right to be smug than you, Benedict, if only for your stoicism through the toughest of times for your Party.”
Many thanks.
“Did you get the emails? I do hope it won’t grieve you too much if we win. I discussed a ‘late entry’ with The Committee but in the end there were too many practical difficulties. We are after all talking about about a chunky investment - about £1,000 - and a very considerable sum should we hit the jackpot.”
It will not grieve me at all…I will catch up with the emails and join in next year!
49 red noodle- I mentioned the priority NHS treatment for all veterans, not because this is a laudable policy in aspiration, but because it is unworkable.
What do you do- prioritise a veteran from the Korean war suffering a brain hemmorage against a PC who has just been shot in the head; a gulf war veteran who has tried to commit suicide jumping against a pregnant mum in involved a hit and run?
FWIW- if we want to put young UK lads into warfare we must at least provide them with the best possible care.
52. Peter - I think we could open a market on £10 shares in “polbet” - if the “committee” agree I will sell 1 of my shares at an acceptable price!
54 Glad about that, Benedict. I wish I had alerted you at the time, but I was a bit overwhelmed by the response, as you know.
Sigh
Red Noodle
Not welcome in Cameron’s Conservatives, are you, Scallywag. Thank you but we are kicking Labour pretty hard already without reverting to your kind of tripe
44. Surely verbs conjugate not decline. Education, education, education.
Brogan has a good piece:
“I mentioned earlier that Douglas Alexander has dropped out of Question Time tomorrow. I’m told he’s citing family reasons (would that be his sister Wendy?) As if by coincidence, in tomorrow’s Spectator Fraser also makes the point that we are not seeing much these days of the young turks around Mr Brown. He says:”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/12/where-is-santa.html
58- Test- I am becoming to see you not only as pbCOM’s best scoop (the youGoV poll showing Brown’s lead fall to 3%), but as pbCOM’s joint second voice of reason (after of course the incredibly well mannered ptp) and joint with the ever so decent Nicky P.
Anyway off to watch the cricket highlights. Goodnight all.
59 “everyone in rows and get them to decline Latin verbs’ approach ”
I have never had to rebuff the advances of any verbs, whether Latin or not.
56 A private arrangement of that kind would not be a matter for referral to The Committee, Goupillon. If you and Benedict wish to cut a deal, that is a matter between you and him.
As an impartial observer, I would comment that results to date suggest that the value of Polbet shares may have increased a little since ‘flotation’, but not hugely.
Beyond that, I couldn’t really comment.
61. Tyson - that will only depress you more. Go to the pub instead.
I suggest that all Huhne supporters and others have a look at this:
http://nickclegg.com/campaign/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=619&Itemid=1
Me thinks a canvass of 10,000 is a better guide then 1,000 “random” members by an un-named company/person and questions of who actually gave them these “random” members details.
The Huhne spin machine is in serious overdrive, but I think the cycle is well and truly over for him.
Mike to vut back your bet may be an over-reaction, I think deep down you know Clegg has this won.
60 - Do you mean this sister Wendy?
http://www.ket.org/pressroom/2001/34/SisterWendy_1000.jpg
Perhaps the Scottish Labour party should get praying and show some penitence.
66-LOL!!!!
House price falls take us back to declines last seen 15 yrs ago.
“Economist, Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, said: “The decline over the last three months is the greatest for any three-month period since the dark days of 1992.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=499802&in_page_id=1770
Crisis, what crisis?
re 52 PtP when do we see the first bar chart in the Racing Post showing pb.com winning here!?
3. Peter - The odds against having 3 entries in the top 1000 are about 7/1 by my reckoning so offers ought to be in excess of £50.
60 Benedict Brogan is brilliant. What’s he doing writing in The Mail?
69 Bloody good point, Chris.
I’ll get onto Icarus straight away. About time he produced one.
Brown will bounce back from the overblown donations saga. The real issue is the declining state of the economy and I suspect the next two years will be dominated by various economic matters.
As regards the Lib Dem leadership race I predict Clegg will be ahead with the under 40’s and also older women who seem to go for the good looking and ‘nice’ Blair/Cameron type of politician. Huhne will win the white male over 40 vote. Huhne will do well in the south east where he was our MEP but Clegg will be ahead in the North, parts of the West Country etc. Clegg will win no doubt but I am tempted to stick the odd tenner on Huhne given Mike’s comments tonight.
70 You may think so, Goupillon, but I couldn’t possibly comment…
In Lib Dem leadership races, I have never backed a winner. I was not a member in 1988 or 1999, but supported Alan Beith and Malcolm Bruce respectively. Last time I voted for Huhne.
Could I get it right this time? I think I have.
71-PtP-71-Don’t know. He could have an independent blog, but I’m not sure if he would have so many news. And if not in the Mail, where?
I’m really appreciating Red Noodle’s spoof posts…
Take that, Red Flump!
I have been skimming and read Tyson at 51. Sadly Rhodes Boyson is very unwell. However, I will make sure that he is made aware that the left still take an interest in him. He will enjoy that
75. SBS - the Huhnistas know where you live and you are on the list.
I so feel for Tyson.
I was in the Labour Party for 39 yrs, deputy leader of my district council group, held dozens of party offices over the years. Tribal Labour.
Saw the anti-democrats take over the party and centralise the decision-making process. Saw Blair as a Tory-lite; later extra-strength conservative.
Left the party in 2000 because I was fed up for apologising for it, and now when I bother to vote it is for LibDems or Greens. Hate the Tories and now feel the same for the Labour leadership and their apologists.
But feel much better in myself. Don’t have to attend meetings with evil-minded back-bighters. Wasn’t it Bill Deedes who said that his opponents were in the Labour Party, but his enemies were in the Tory Party? I could say the same in reverse.
meanwhile… in Australia they’ve still only got 90.08% of the vote counted, but they do now think that Howard’s lost.
Just which century exactly is the Australian Election Commission living in?
71 Careful, PtP, as you are well aware another Mail writer posts on this site - now you wouldn’t wish to upset him would you?
78 - as a trainee teacher, I do hear Rhodes Boyson’s name mentioned from time to time.
My old school had a block that had a plaque claiming he had opened it. Funny thing is that he never turned up.
82 Yes - surprise, surprise, Betfair finally paid out on Bennelong today. I’ve been toasting our friend Alexander with a nice bottle of Claret this evening - the soundest 6-4 political bet all year IMO.
House prices falling is not a bad thing, it is a good thing. The property market is grossly inflated, and like all bubbles must one day burst, a reality check is long overdue.
From the last thread, for those that saw it.
There was an old man of Torbay
Whose farts caused people to say
‘Oh please don’t come near
Is that scrumpy or beer?’
He said….’Well I’m damned if I’ll say.
Boom boom!
81 But if counting votes were a sport, then Australia would be brilliant at it.
Russia: For those who may be interested - Ivanov’s still the guy to beat. 11/8 seems about right.
There was a rumour running round a couple of weeks ago that Mrs Putin would run for President. Nothing in it though.
Expect to hear the rumour again though. I gather it’s hit the media in Bulgaria, which probably means it’s been on Radio “Free Europe”.
I think Clegg has it sown up, largely because of the media.
From the word go Clegg has been branded “the frontrunner” every time his name has been mentioned. Whilst people have come from behind to win (eg Cameron, IDS) in leadership contests, this has required a big moment or overwhelmingly compromising policy issue (ie Clarke on Europe, Davis bad speech and Cameron’s good one at Tory conference).
There has just not been one single, defining issue that has cast Clegg in a bad light and Huhne in a good one since the start of the race. The “calamity” campaign was the only big event and that was arguably to the detriment of the challenger, Huhne. So I would say that with the media narrative the way it is, it’s got to be Clegg.
Will he be any good? Debateable. Wish Cable was leader.
Bellylarf on today’s PMQ’s
http://tinyurl.com/2mf96v
Interesting Guido and Mr Smithson so at odds over Chris Huhne. I think Mr S exaggerates Huhne’s merits but I agree with him more than Guido’s comparison to IDS. True Huhne is not the MPs choice any more than IDS was but surely there the comparison stops
85. Coldstone - I agree it is a good thing but it is unlikely the “bubble will burst” that much. A 10 to 15% drop is most likely IMO and then it will stabilise and not vary much for the foreseeable future ( maybe 3 years ). I do not think it will recover in time to save Gordon which is why the prat should have taken his chances with an election this Autumn.
78 - sorry to hear that the Brent North schoolmaster isn’t well.
Saw Hattersley on Hardtalk on BBC News 24 last night, god he was so awful! Education standards are rising, nevermind that we dropped from 3rd to 17th in the league table, Gordon is a Crosslandite socialist, trade union members must opt out, not opt in of the political levy etc, I don’t know what planet that man is on these days!
Was having a chat in the office today about LIBOR - can anyone explain to me why the overnight LIBOR should only be about 5.9% when 1 month / 3 month LIBOR is about 6.65 / 6.75% respectively - surely without any restrictions a bank would want to move a portion of its funding into overnight funding as the difference in rate would offset the extra risk of not being able to roll over the funding / expenses incurred in doing so? Or are there regulations that a commercial bank can only have so much placed on overnight LIBOR?
68 House price falls take us back to declines last seen 15 yrs ago.
Excellent news.
High house prices only benefit speculators and Gordon Brown. Anyone needing a home gets shafted.
I’m going to wait till prices drop by 40%. There is no way they are worth more.
Has anyone seen this US government and bank plan to stem mortgage issues? I forgotr to mention it whilst I was away there but it was brewing and now looks to be firmed up.
I just couldnt see the UK government doing such a thing, partially because the banks wouldnt buy it but its an interesting intervention.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071205/ap_on_go_pr_wh/mortgage_crisis
Anybody know when the newspapers are likely to use up their polling budgets this months?
93. The current costs of building a new house in the SE outside of London are approx 50% for the land and 50% for planning, build costs and professional costs. The planning system as it is ensures that there is insufficient land available to meet the demand for new housing that has existed in recent years. The individuals and commercial organisations that own the land that is most likely to be used for housing in the next 20 years will in general wait for the housing market to recover before selling. Therefore I cannot see yhe peek housing prices seen las Spring dipping more than 10 - 15%.
9.2…is it only 5.9%, its higher than 3 month at the moment.
ConHome have their monthly poll of how Shadow Cabinet members are doing. Sayeeda Warsi is usually rank last. Given her help in the Sudan teacher matter, surely she’s rise a bit. ConHome voters are not all evil are they?
78 and 92 and sbs- some great research into Rhodes Boyson- he proved that a school dealing with a group of deprived London white poor males could deliver better outcomes than similar schools, dealing with similar catchments. I.e what head teachers and teachers did in their schools make a difference.
Rhodes Boyson made a positive difference to countless hundreds of poor white kids, many of whom will still recognize his contribution now.
Have we finally located our very own and mysterious Jack W?
99 - Tyson I’m getting seriously worried that you’re going to make a Damascene conversion and join us Conservatives!
Re 55, Tyson I think Red noodle is a spoof!
97 - that’s what I read in the FT today at the back of Companies and Markets
Re 57, Peter,.”54 Glad about that, Benedict. I wish I had alerted you at the time, but I was a bit overwhelmed by the response, as you know.”
Not to worry there is always next year!
I don’t quite understand that table. Can we have a bar chart please?
I assume only LibDems can win here, but you never know.
92. Banks aren’t lending to each other at the moment so some are short of cash and are despearte for more money. The real fear is what happens over Christmas and the New Year. They all want to make sure they don’t get caught short over the festive seasons when they have to tidy their books. The BoE has said it will make £10bn available over the new year but this is a drop in the ocean.
Financial institutions are only prepared to lend overnight so if they hear rumours that something is going wrong at one of the banks they can get there money out quick. A few extra basis points isn’t worth the risk of having your money caught up for a week or two when the financial health of a bank seems to be weakening.
Re 91, Goupillon, “85. Coldstone - I agree it is a good thing but it is unlikely the “bubble will burst” that much. A 10 to 15% drop is most likely IMO and then it will stabilise and not vary much for the foreseeable future ( maybe 3 years ). I do not think it will recover in time to save Gordon which is why the prat should have taken his chances with an election this Autumn.”
To be fair that was Coldstones position. He should have gone then he would have been nuts not too. I agree now and agreed then. I just thought he would never have the bottle and I was right on that!
(to be fair I may have harboured a few slim doubts at the end… but I won’t admit it:) )
Re 99, Tyson, “78 and 92 and sbs- some great research into Rhodes Boyson- he proved that a school dealing with a group of deprived London white poor males could deliver better outcomes than similar schools, dealing with similar catchments. I.e what head teachers and teachers did in their schools make a difference.
Rhodes Boyson made a positive difference to countless hundreds of poor white kids, many of whom will still recognize his contribution now.
Have we finally located our very own and mysterious Jack W? ”
I wonder if we could bottle what he did and impart it in every teacher?
He wasn’t of the leftie “they must all be winners” school of thought was he?
As for jack W, now that would be interesting.
When Rhodes Boyson moved to London to become Head of Robert Montefiore School, he was an active member of the Labour Party.
There was much surprise, not least at Highbury Grove, when he became a Conservative member of Waltahm Forest Council and a Conservative candidate and later MP. Possibly from his family as his father was the “Father” of Haslingden Council in Lancashire, serving decades as a Labour councillor and later Alderman.
BTW when the late Alderman Boyson chaired Haslingden Council’s highways committee he turned off street lights at 11pm on the grounds that only those up to no good would be out at that time of night! Not sure that Tyson would appreciate that version of socialism.
Benedict. I can assure you that RB is not Jack W.
106 Benedict - yes I know that was Coldstone’s view. I must admit I thought the Conservative’s “view” in the run up to “the election that never was” was just a wind up and they were as surprised as the rest of us when Gordon bottled it. If it was not a wind up please give me the reasons why you were not surprised Bottler Brown fudged it other than the dramatic reverse in opinion polls after the “inheritance tax bribe”.
I’d note that the markets have moved towards Clegg since this poll came out - they were at 1.18 earlier and are now at 1.13. A pity since I was going to add to my (substantial) existing bet if it had moved out at all.
102. Odd i have it at .25 or something above 3 month according to the stuff i’m reading.
Back from bar billiards , won my game but team lost 2-3 against premier side . We are still top of Div 1 though .
I have often been accused of being pro Labour and HF asked why I have not joined them . The reasons for that are those that Tyson gave in Post 38 . These are not L(l)iberal or not even Labour policies but policies that a Conservative government would on the whole be happy to introduce and support however much they oppose them now , in many cases for the sake of opposing .
Guardian headline, Labour officials helped Abrahams to set up legal covenents to donate money secretly!
oh dear.
Since 2003.
Not Gordon’s best week this one is it?
111 - but look at the last price matched - Clegg 1.21; Huhne 6!
The market is very illiquid.
I just read PMQs exchanges..what has David Cameron against former soap actors?
Re 109, Peter Golds, “Benedict. I can assure you that RB is not Jack W.”
Its Tyson who needs assuring
I would appreciate it if you could give Sir Rhodes my kindest regards though…
Tyson
Shame you’ve gone to watch the cricket, I left the party in disgust too, but because the party wasn’t Blairite enough. It took a path and then did not realise the logic of where it was going, and the branches I was in were all dinosaur Labour like you Tyson
The Party was destined for oblivion and was saved by newLabour, and has had 10 years in power.
Gordon should relax, lie back and spend three years doing good stuff to embed the Labour achievements, set the Party up for the future, and then take his defeat at the next election on the chin.
114-And I was beginning to think that this was a “calm” week…
Re 110, Goullipon “106 Benedict - yes I know that was Coldstone’s view. I must admit I thought the Conservative’s “view” in the run up to “the election that never was” was just a wind up and they were as surprised as the rest of us when Gordon bottled it. If it was not a wind up please give me the reasons why you were not surprised Bottler Brown fudged it other than the dramatic reverse in opinion polls after the “inheritance tax bribe”.”
Regardless of anything else I just thought he did not have the bottle to face any sort of contest.
Was it the polls? No it was Gordon Brown’s character.
re 119, Me, “114-And I was beginning to think that this was a “calm” week…”
If true, and Labour are tight lipped this evening its dynamite.
120. Alright but give an example or two where he fudged a “defining moment” in the past.
114. If true, that blows Browns/Labours excuse’s about not knowing what was going on, right out of the water. It also drags Tony Blair and Lord Levy into the story. Could Blair yet face his comeupance? :O
121-Benedict-As you say: “Ouch”
Wee Dougie has bottled it and will not now be appearing on tomorrow’s Question Time,shame.
Re 122, Goullipon “120. Alright but give an example or two where he fudged a “defining moment” in the past.”
The failed coup in September last year when he stopped short of going in for the kill is one. The other is the leadership election. He doesn’t like them so let Blair win his and did not fight, whilst when it came to his own ensured there would be no kind of contest. It speaks volumes to me of a man who does not say “bring it on!”
Re 123, Gin, Yes, but I suspect the Guardian have good sources on this. Labour are saying nothing. No denial. Not even a non denial denial. They are saying nil nada nothing.
Re 124, Me. “121-Benedict-As you say: “Ouch””
No, I say “ouch thats got to hurt. Or “golly gosh thats going to smart a tad” (or words to that effect)
Here’s the key issue, how will the Abrahams story affect the regular voter.
I’d suggest in itself, it wont. The average voter isnt going to switch on this issue but its the mix of cummulative effect and what such stories represent that act as straws on the camels back.
Its the arrogance of power idea seeping into the public consciousness that is the problem for Labour.
Dare I say but under Tony he’d come out and take these issues on and in his persusaive way make some sort of case that might just pass muster in wavering minds. Gordon doesnt have that.
124-Benedict-Sorry, then =)
Yokel
I agree. It was the drip drip that did for John Major.
Re 127, Yokel, I agree, almost entirely.
Unless it is shown Wee Dougie showed some preferment. That isn’t going to happen because it does not work like that… unless after having denied that he has anything to do with it it can be shown that he had in which case all bets are off.
Re 128, me, “124-Benedict-Sorry, then =)”
Thats OK then
Re 129, John Wheatley. The problem is that Tony Blair’s drip drip of sleaze will also be reawakened with out the “master” to bat them away.
I cant find this story by the way, can someone link to it?
“under Tony he’d come out and take these issues on and in his persusaive way make some sort of case that might just pass muster in wavering minds”
I’ve always found him so “fake” and always wondered why the rest found him persuasive
129. I agree. Voters will probably get bored after 2 weeks and stop following it closely but they will still get the “there’s something dodgy, sleazy about Labour” idea. Even if they won’t read carefully future pieces on it, they will cacth headlines and associate them negatively with Labour
133. Tony would never persuade everyone of course but hed persuade some in this kind of situation, thats the difference between him and Gordon who I doubt could win over many of the the sceptics who could possibly be swayed.
Re 133, Andrea “I’ve always found him so “fake” and always wondered why the rest found him persuasive”
I agree, but then I was never taken in. Many others were though.
Where IS Clegg?
Has he been out in a kyak recently?
136. I liked him on PMQs though..but it may be due to his way of handling his glasses
The Sun says:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Re 138, Andrea “I liked him on PMQs though..but it may be due to his way of handling his glasses :wink:”
he wasn’t bad, but then he was brilliant compared to Brown. But then so would my shoe be…
Don’t know if someone posted, but is it true that Brown offered Clarke a job????????
Lets put it this way. I may not have liked Tony for many reasons but I did have respect for his skills for example and some of his convictions.
Respect for Gordon? Er..none.
I’m wondering if many of the public, too many for Labour’s comfort, think the same.
141. Kenneth or Charles? I can’t work out which is less likely.
If you had dropped the ‘e’, I would have put 3-1 on you meaning the infamous Alan
Guardian Story here:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2222809,00.html
And bits on my blog as well (obviously)
here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
143-Charles, incredible!!!
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=188483&version=1&template_id=38&parent_id=20
why is the guardian continually going for labour over its dodgy donations, while the right wing press have given up on it (well for the time being)?? is it because both wings realise what a disaster gordon is for labour. so the tory press will keep quiet to keep him in, while the labour press will make noise to get him out!!!
ming campbell springs to mind here. remember how the labour and tory mps shut up after fatally wounding him early on? they realised he was a big asset to them both, so they tried to keep him at the helm!!!
I have just read PPERA, and I can’t figure out if ‘covenanting’ money to a third party who is then bonded to act in a certain way legally counts as ‘donating on behalf of’ the originator.
Under a covenant, the money genuinely belongs to the agent, I believe, so this may prove the legal technicality that made Watt think all was legit. It does, however, make a mockery both of his claims not to have realised that there was something afoot, as well as completely undermining the Act in question.
It is manifestly against the spirit of the law, and I think Labour would have fared better if they had just broken the law, because now it looks like law breaking and loop-holing.
I simply don’t understand why (a) nobody realised this was stupid and dangerous and (b) why they were so eager to grant Abrahams anonymity at such an obvious cost. 600k is a lot, but not compared to the political damage (and the loss of donation to the Exchequer) that will now follow.
O/T from the last thread - I cannot believe that Brown has a scheduling error - is this just his way of making sure that David Milliband’s signature is on the most unpopular Treaty of all time instead of his?
Tyson I sympathise with you. I felt that way about the unfortunate IDS. But i disagree about the problem.
What will do for the government is the perception that no-one ever carries the can and is prepared to lose the perks of office, even when they have broken the law.
Even in Blair’s government the knowledge that there was some proof that a minister might even have bent the law was enough to put the skids under a cabinet minister or three, even if they sometimes made a come back later and had to do it all over again.
But now no-one resigns from the government. They will ‘tough it out’ and in so doing they are ensuring the offence will be remembered again and again. To use that over worked aphorism, they are the gift that keeps on giving to those opposing the government.
And when someone does resign from a civil service post they are touted as the sacrifice but then we find they end up in another well paid job until early retirement on an exceedingly good pension.
You just get the idea that they are thinking about themselves more than the country, that winning has become everything, image has replaced honour, cupidity has replaced diligence and dissimulation has replaced straight speaking.
“Clarke refused offer of role in repatriating immigrants”
And here it is:
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3226407.ece
Confirmation of the big lead the SNP have in Scotland. The Herald says The SNP has opened up an eleven-point gap over Labour in Scotland, the biggest Nationalist lead ever recorded over their italoonrivals by a mainstream polling organisation.
The surge can only be explained by the performance of the Salmond government and the troubles of Wendy Alexander’s Holyrood opposition.
In August YouGov asked the standard voting intention questions for a Sunday newspaper and found that Labour and the SNP were deadlocked at 32% each, around the level of the outcome of last May’s election.
On exactly the same polling method, the latest YouGov poll shows that the Nationalists have stretched their lead to 11%. It showed 40% of voters would opt for the SNP at a Holyrood election against only 29% for Labour.
“Brown leadership campaign donor is given government job”
“Labour jitters over the Government’s recent troubles are illustrated by a strong attack by two MPs in today’s edition of New Statesman magazine. Jon Cruddas and John Trickett say: “We’re faced with crises of both substance and style, and these are coming together to create a perfect storm of political havoc.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3226400.ece
And Steve Richards has a good piece
“A sobering question for David Cameron: why are you not doing better in the polls?”
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/steve_richards/article3226370.ece
Iain Dale has this
The SNP commissioned YouGov to measure Holyrood voting intentions. The poll was taken from 28-30 November, well before the Wendy Alexander stuff hit the fan.
The results are (change from May 2007 election in brackets)
Constituency voteSNP: 40% (+7)
Lab: 29% (-3)Lib Dem: 13% (-3)
Con: 12% (-5)
Other: 6%
Regional vote:SNP: 34% (+3)
Lab: 26% (-3)
Con: 13% (-1)
Lib Dem: 13% (+2)
Green: 9% (+5)
SSP: 3% (+2)
Sol: 1%
Oth: 2%
This would give the SNP 51 seats. The poll also asked:How do you think the SNP Government has fared so far…
Well: 63%
Badly: 26%
Don’t know: 12%
Among Tory voters it is 56% well to 32% badly; among Labour voters 52% to 38%; and among Lib Dem voters 64% to 32%. They then asked who was doing the better job - Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown? Alex Salmond: 50% Gordon Brown: 22% Neither: 21% Don’t know: 7%.
If you had to choose which of the following words would best sum up how you would rate Gordon Brown as the Prime Minister up to now?”
Impressive: 18%
Disappointing: 64%
Don’t know: 18%
44% of Labour voters think that Brown has been disappointing – more than the 39% who think he has been impressive!
Sorry about formatting, actually its looks quite nice in blue, a good colour!
153-Yeah, I prefer in blue too
I’m surprised Andrew Gilligan’s story on the GLA Investigation in last night’s Evening Standard didn’t carry forward onto this thread, although I appreciate that probably a majority of posters don’t live in the Capital.
Nevertheless, if the story has legs, it has the potential of becoming truly mega.
155 Anyone seen anything about this in the Morning Dailies - the Mail, as the Standard’s sister, is probably the most likely?
152. If repeated in a Westminster election…
SNP 36 (+30)
Lab 14 (-27)
LD 8 (-3)
Con 1 (0)
The SNP vote is structured so that it gains seats in leaps and bounds beyond 33% of the vote, and achieves a majority at around 39%. Beyond that is landlide territory…
On these figures Speaker Martin would be very vulnerable, although forecast to narrowly hold on by about 1300 votes…
Re 151, Me, blogged that with a hat tip. Bizarre that they are such strangers to the truth.