Did you get on the super-slimmer’s band-wagon?
December 6th, 2007
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Is he really the man the Democrats fear most?
It was back in mid-August that we first looked at the chances of GOP contender and former Governor of Arkansas, Mick Huckabee. At the time the unique element in his background was that he was born and brought up in the same small town as Bill Clinton.
Since then Huckabee, whose dramatic slimming story (see picture), has endeared him to many in the most obese country in the world, has gone from strength to strength. The above chart showing his price expressed as an implied probability illustrates the progress that he has made.
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In the summer I suggested that a small Huckabee punt at the then 60/1 price seemed like a value bet which when combined with my tip at 50/1 on Obama in May 2005 means that this White House Race is already looking very profitable.
Today an article in the Washington Post suggests that a Huckabee nomination is the one that many Democrats are coming to fear most. There’s a long way to go, of course, but if he does win in Iowa, as the polls are suggesting then it could provide the springboard for the rest of the campaign.
Since my August article I’ve put a bit more on him with the Spreadfair 0-10-25 spread market. Other prices are here.
Contacting PBC: We have a new email address so if you want to contact the site please use this.
Mike Smithson
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I thought the photos were John Prescott and Peter Mandelson!
Re-post from the previous thread, which in part is itself a re-post itself. Oh dear, my head hurts!
Here’s a post from “shadsy” (now where did that name come from?) who owns up to working for the enemy, Ladbrokes, as well as being an occasional poster himself. This was posted this morning onto yesterday’s thread, but no doubt he’ll soon get the idea.
Some of the regulars may know me as a very occasional poster and party attendee. I’ve just taken over the politics brief at Ladbrokes and would obviously be delighted to receive any feedback in relation to that. Nothing dramatic will be changing in terms of markets or prices just yet.
One piece of news. A shop cash punter has just had £1000 on Huhne at 7/2 as well as £1000 at 11/4. We are now 2/7 Clegg 5/2 Huhne.
by shadsy December 6th, 2007 at 11:29 am
shadsy, there’s a rumour circulating in these parts that your employer has most generously agreed to sponsor a free bar at PB.com’s forthcoming party at the National Liberal Club in January.
Perhaps you would be so kind as to confirm that this is indeed the case, so that the less wealthy amongst us need no longer scrimp and save over the Christmas period in order, somehow, to garner the otherwise the otherwise required entry fee of £25.
1 LOL - yes, uncanny isn’t it?
But Huckabee has a big problem now:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/down-goes-huckabee/?ref=opinion
This Roger-related post from the previous thread deserves a wider readership.
96 - Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Roger: an almost perfect specimen of the genus LameBrainLefticus.
In one short post he manages to combine four of the contemporary left’s archetypal characteristics.
1. Schmaltz and glib emotionalism:
“Brown was organizing soup kitchens at the age of ten…”
2. Sneery middle class stereotyping of groups it’s acceptable to hate:
“…that’s ten years younger than Cameron when he went on his restaurant rampage as a member of the Bullingdon club with fellow front bencher and prospective Tory Mayor of London Boris Johnson.”
3. Illogical optimism dressed up as objective analysis:
“Brown will turn this round and Labour will be level pegging in the polls quite soon.”
4. Embarrassing inconsistency:
Today Roger says this about Brown:
“He’s taken time to find his feet but give me an honest compassionate politician any day than the tinsel and glitter of Cameron Osborne and Johnson.”
Contrast that with some of his recent comments:
“I’ve got this awful feeling Brown’s going to do something unforgivable soon equivalent to Blair’s support for the bombing of Beirut. Something so bad that many Labour voters just wont be able to vote for him-as I wouldn’t for Blair if he’d stood again.” (14/11/07)
“Brown’s popularity was based on a belief that he was strong and willing to take on the vested interests and ugly partners Blair had gathered when he was leader. We even dared to think he might champion the oppressed even if Bush Bolton and Cheney didn’t approve. He started well. He snubbed Bush and appointed Malloch Brown but that was it. Window dressing no more. A rubbish government with a rubbish opposition.” (12/11/07)
“What should worry Labour supporters is that neither Brown nor his ministers look up to the job.” (22/11/07)
Being a self-indulgent socialist dilettante means never having to say you’re sorry.
On the other hand, it also means never being taken seriously.
by Don December 6th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Re 1, Mike Sole, “I thought the photos were John Prescott and Peter Mandelson!”
So did I!
Mike - one internet bookmaker had Hucks at 40-1 until just a couple of days ago. Yesterday, and whisper this very quietly re post 2 above, Ladbrokes had him at 8-1 to win the Republican nomination, but have since narrowed the odds to 5-1.
Woger has form in making statements that are patently untrue, usually as a result of his persoanl bile. He has been moderated once and warned at least twice. However, the reference to Cameron smashing restaurants is also untrue.
The prospect of an idiot like Woger in court, parading that conscience and bank balance would be enormous entertainment. he would take up half te morning giving all his addresses. However, there are some people who just might take action against the site if and when they read the Woger fantasies.
5 A nasty personal attack from Don. Who, unlike Rog, has never posted something worth reading. Nice try today though. There are plenty of great right wing posters on pb.com, but right wing creatures like Don do to tend to go for ad hominen attacks and long self serving rants claiming how unfair the world is.
Roger should be flattered at Don’s homage.
here
I’m on twice with Blue Square at 50/1 and once yesterday with Ladbrokes at 8/1, all bets for the GOP candidacy. Great spot Mike! I’ve also got Guiliani at 3/1 and McCain at about 16/1 in the same market.
Why on earth does anybody, anybody at all, think that Mike’s excellent Site is a suitable vehicle for making highly personal attacks on another poster?
It’s a betting Site, for heavens sake. What possible interest could political punters have in the curious and vindictive obsessions that have been expressed here?
10 You can say that again, Chrisco!
5: You thought this lengthy attack on another poster not only good, but so good you reposted it? Sheesh.
12. ‘Why on earth does anybody, anybody at all, think that Mike’s excellent Site is a suitable vehicle for making highly personal attacks on another poster’
Roger obviously thinks it is, given the amount of abuse he dishes out.
15 Would that makes it right, “Souffle”?
Go and and join the other children in the naughty room.
Moving on.
Has anyone seen the “Chuck Norris” ads for Huckabee. They are amazing IMO and a stark warning to any UK punter betting on the US election. The culture is so different. Any insights you have from the UK (or EU) are largely worthless to the US market. I suggest you watch them on you tube before you part with any cash.
9 Yes indeed a nasty attack and perhaps no surprise thar Roger’s stalker pot and kettle comes out of his coffin to support it .
17 “Moving on.” Yes, gratefully.
They’re hilarious, Jonathan. I don’t believe they are anything but tongue in cheek, but they’re none the less effective for that.
Re 18, Mark, I see you are now a “tory spinner”! When did you join the party
17 Absolutely.
Watching Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll has been fascinating over the last few months. The more closely you watch the campaign the more you realise that the forces at work are quite different from the ones that we recognise at home in the UK. To bet in this most volatile election, covering the area of a continent, not a tiny country like the UK, is one almighty risk.
Knowledge of the politicians is beneficial. Knowledge of the USA, it’s people, it’s history and it’s social milieu is essential.
Is it me or has there been a slight movement towards Huhne on the Lib Dem betting market today?
Amazing that Mr Palmer and Mark, in a coffin since Asquith, Senior never have a word of criticism about Woger’s slurs. Presumably they believe in them.
19 They are great and I imagine they would play well in the Southern states. Although my political insights there are largely limited to watching old episodes of the Dukes of Hazzard and the Fall Guy. I imagine that I am not alone in that if we’re honest.
If you look at the follow up episodes on the Huckabee website, Huckabee claims - seriously - that the endorsement really turned things around for him.
It’ s genuinely interesting viewing recommended for political-punters and politicos alike. I can see his angle on the immigration issue being picked up in the UK.
If Huckabee can hold the South, which he surely could against Hillary, are the Democrats in a bit of trouble again?
9: Would you be so quick to defend Roger if he was attacking say David Davis for being a lower class oik or is classism acceptable in only one direction?
22 - see (2)
I’ve been worried about Huckabee from the start - he had the look of a candidate who could suddenly soar from nowhere against unconvincing opposition. Mind you, fat lot of good that did Howard Dean in the long run.
Plus, he’s not only backed by Chuck Norris - he’s also got Ric Flair on his team.
WOOOOO!
25. Roger as the authentic voice of left-wing conscience (sic) is immune from all criticism, no matter how unpleasant or libellous his posts. Surely you have worked that out by now.
27 - Any word on who Hulk Hogan is coming out for?
With all those Hulkamaniacs out there his endorement could be crucial.
Huckabee has not had a good week. First that old story about the rapist is coming back, and now the press is giving much more attention.Second, he didn’t have a clue about the NIE report on Iran. If Huckabee keeps going well in the polls, his record will become more of a subject.And he needs to be careful. How come someone who wants to be president has no idea about the intelligence report on Iran? (this is one of the questions that is being asked..)
Roger’s desperate efforts to be down wiv the masses and hating them tory toffs is endearing. I wish people would stop having a go at someone who has spent his whole adult life suffering from extreme guilt about being white and middle class. That is punishment enough.
His forays into personal fantasies of evil tory baby-eaters beaten back by the brave Scottish socialist hordes are harmless and quite funny.
He is no more contradictory than others, including me - it’s called being human. He’s a leftie, lefties are wrong about everything; just get over it.
24 Nothing wrong in having watched “The Dukes of Hazard”, if a little bold in actually admitting to it.
Come on, at the end of the day Roger is just Roger, a loveable, slightly misguided charicature (whose predictions are ALWAYS worthy of attention). There’s no need to start bullying him - let readers and posters make of others what they will. Same with seanT, Gabble et al. And Nick Palmer!
24 “If Huckabee can hold the South, which he surely could against Hillary, are the Democrats in a bit of trouble again? ”
No (and he won’t be the nominee anyway). If the Democrats win Ohio next time , as seems very likely given the Republican party’s implosion there, then they will win the Presidency if they hold the other Kerry states. They can win without the South.
The key for Republicans is that if Ohio is lost, they need a candidate who could flip states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin or New Jersey. This is the opportunity for McCain and particularly Guiliani.
25 Ralph (and others)
It’s the personalised nature of the attacks on Roger that make them unacceptable. Why do you want to be associated with such behaviour?
Also, I ask again, as I have done repeatedly, what do such personalised attacks contribute to a betting Site?
34 Do you really think McCain has any real chance - the betting markets say this is a three horse race between Giuliani, Romney & Huckabee?
35. But why don’t you pull Roger up when he makes similar personal attacks on others?
34 Surely McCain is toast? (I resisted writing McCain has had his chips)
BTW For graduates of the Hazzard County School of Political Science - Cooter (Actor and ex congressman Ben Jones) has come out for Edwards
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkOTdAFl4zs
Who get’s Daisy’s vote? Yee Haw.
Re 17. You are dead right about understanding the culture which is totally different from the UK. Until two years ago my work took me to the US every five or six weeks and certainly I felt much more able to absorb what was going on.
What we do have now is the net, YouTube and other sites where we are able to get a real feel of developments. It was watching a YouTube viedoe of Obama’s 2004 convention speeach that convinced me that he had potential and it has been the TV appearances in recent weeks, all available easily, that have attracted me to Huckabee.
37. Because in general he is not making ad hom attacks on other posters, is he? I hardly think ad hom attacks on politicians can be a crime!
Having been in the US last week, I watched the republican YouTube debate in full. Picking a favourite candidate from amongst the hopefulls is a bit like sticking your hand in a bowl of slime to pull out a winning raffle ticket, but of the main candidates, here’s my take:
Giuliani: Spent a lot of time trying to get the point accross that he has more experience than merely having been New York mayor on 9/11 - he worked in the Justice Department before. Main strongpoints were on crime reduction, although there is a lot of chatter in US media that the figures he quotes are not accurate/disputed. He also suffers from problems in his personal life - being on wife number 3. There were also reports out about his secret service people’s costs being hidden in obscure city hall accounts for expenses incurred whilst visiting his mistress in the Hamptons whilst Mayor. Came accross as a reasonable human being but maybe a touch left wing for the audience of republicans in Florida where the debate took place. So even though he has the recognition factor, his personal life and his pro choice view on abortion will count against him and I view his chances as pretty slim when push comes to shove.
Huckerbee: Came accross as a very creditable candidate to the audience. He has a theology degree and was governer of a state that has the death penalty unlike Giuliani and Romney. Gave concise answers to some pretty awful questions such as “The death penalty - what would Jesus do?” Was pro gun, pro life, pro death penalty. Just that he also came accross as a reasonable and likeable human being. Has a very good chance if the party decide that their chances of winning the 2008 race are slim and they want a candidate who represents their views rather than one who could beat Hilary.
Romney: Slimeball. Pure and simple. Only really came accross well when challenged by Giuliani about employing illegal immigrants at his mansion when governer of Massachussetts. His answer made Giuliani seem as stupid as he probably is. His religion will count against him no doubt, but anyway he really made my skin crawl. patronising and too smooth by half. Will not win the nomination. His 180 degree flip flop on abortion from pro choice to strongly pro life was not convincing and utterly self serving
Thompson: Well came over as a likeable grandpa, but with a ruthless streak. A bit of an old buffer though. in my opinion he has no chance. He did though seem competent and raised a few laughs, but I thought he lacked new ideas. Would make an ideal running mate as VP
McCain: Well I hate to say this about someone who I had some respect for, but he is a one (maybe one and a half) trick pony. He served in the military with distinction in Vietnam, and was captured and tortured. But he seems to preface his answers to most questions by reminding his audience of this fact. Was strongly against Iraq war but now strongly pro surge which he believes is succeeding. Nothing original to say about anything else really. Seemed nervous. No chance.
Ron Paul: I really liked this guy as he is prepared to say things which he strongly believes but which won’t garner him any votes. Wants instant withdrawal from Iraq, and US to become pretty isolationist. Really strong on balanced budget. Maverick, likeable and apparently his supporters are fanatical and passionate. There aren’t enough of them however. No chance.
Hunter: Loony rightwinger but with a sense of humour. Wants to build a proper border with Mexico.
Tanredo: Invisible. Can’t remember anything he said.
So my conclusion is that Huckerbee will be the republican nominee. And you know as someone who would never vote republican, there are occassionally people with diametrically opposed views that you can warm to. He is definitely one and ticks all the “right” boxes too.
35: Roger makes unacceptable attacks and gets the same in return. I find both rather sad, as I do those who defend Roger’s attacks and criticise others.
Perhaps an attack the argument not the person rule would be a good idea.
30 “Huckabee ……. didn’t have a clue about the NIE report on Iran.”
Me, I can see that this matters to you, but does it really matter to the average American voter? I wonder how much Ronald Reagan knew about such issues during his election campaign or indeed after he assumed the Presidency.
37 Because I’m not the police around here, Souffle, and even if I were, the task of ‘pulling up’ every such offence would be excessive.
Normally I ignore such personalised attacks because their infantilism invariably belittles the person posting, not the object of the vindictiveness. The attacks on Roger are however sometimes exceptional, and as a devotee of the Site I choose to raise my voice occasionally when such mischief becomes unacceptable.
Few others have to put up with the level of personal attack Roger suffers. None, as far as I know, has his own personal stalker - a particularly unpleasant and cowardly form of barracking which I am sure you would wish to condemn, whoever its object.
My attitude would be no different if you or anybody else were so victimised. Roger puts up with it pretty well, by and large, and does not appear to need anybody standing up for him. Nevertheless I am happy to do so, partly to discourage the occasional unpleasantness which occasionally invades the Site, and partly to make it clear, in case there were any doubt, just what exactly I think of it.
Clear?
38 Who get’s Daisy’s vote? Yee Haw.
Wasn’t it Ringo, at least for a while? Lucky chap, I still remember those shorts!
“Souffle” aka Pot and Kettle/Scallywag in another of his tiresome Tarquins.
Roger you’re a legend mate.
Anyway, it’s completely different having a pop at a public figure like Cameron (who would laugh it off) and Brown to harassing other posters.
I think a good meter for Roger’s legendariness is the fact that, like Nick Palmer, he has gathered his own stalkers.
Good on you Rog!
(Tories for Roger)
36 Peter “the betting markets say this is a three horse race between Giuliani, Romney & Huckabee?
I don’t see Huckabee getting anywhere once the field narrows (although he could knock Thompson out in Iowa, and damage Romney). McCain or Guiliani will probably come second in New Hampshire, and if its McCain then I could see him then winning South Carolina. I have this nagging feeling that the Republican Party is not comfortable with Romney as the nominee, and will ultimately coalesce behind a plausible alternative. If McCain can get out of New Hampshire with a result it could be him.
42 Ralph - “I find both rather sad, as I do those who defend Roger’s attacks and criticise others.”
Have I defended anybody’s personalised attacks? Please quote me a single instance if you can.
And can you answer the question I put to you?
What have the personal attacks on Roger, or anybody, got to do with political betting?
In 2000 I house shared with an American from Seattle, who had family roots in the military - her father worked for Boeing. It was a political education. The sheer number of candidates on her Washington state presidential postal ballot was a surprise with all sorts of minorities catered for (even socialists). We rarely get to hear of the long-tail of no-hopers in presidential elections. Eye-opening. In close states they make a difference.
My housemate’s main concern at the time was that George W and Dick Cheney were not right wing enough. Gun control and abortion being her main issues. I tried to egg her on to deprive GW of a vote. Plenty of far right options to choose from. It was just a shame that she didn’t live in Florida.
Ps I think I deserve a prize for the first “Yee Haw” on pb.com
i just have this little feeling that the americans will draw back from the revolutionary ideas currently on offer - the woman, the black guy, the mormon. they may well pick someone who fits the usual mould.
which seems to leave Mick Huckabee as a strong contender.
41 What was the name of George Wallace’s running mate in 1968, who advocated a nuclear strike against Switzerland, in order to enhance the value of US Gold reserves?
43-PfP-Don’t know if it matters for the average American voter(I’m not even a voter!), but in a way I think it does. Most of them know that the Iraq invasion was a disaster and want to avoid another, how can Huckabee be the guy that will run American without knowing this?And few weeks ago everyone ruled him out as the “outsider”, the guy that didn’t have a chance(his polls were not good). Now that things are different, people want to know what he thinks about the Middle East and other foreign issues, and I’m afraid they will not have the answer if Huckabee keeps thinking that he still is the “outsider”….
51.His name was Curtis LeMay who i think had been in charge of Us Bomber command during the Cuban Missile crisis which is a frightening thought.
51. Don’t know but what a star!
Roger, I love you too!
(Don’t agree with you, mind)
re 49 My favourite bit of negative campaigning was the spoof bumper sticker put out in the 2000 race in some southern states - It read - “Gays for Gore and Gun Control”
41. McCain was never against the Iraq war. He voted for the Iraq liberation act in 1998, urged Bush to liberate in December 2001 and voted for the war in 2003. He did argue from mid 2003 onwards that more troops should be sent but that is hardly ‘anti-war’.
51. Curtis LeMay.
53,54 By all accounts, the Wallace/Le May campaign was hilarious, although I’m not sure Le May was joking when he made that comment.
My favourite US politician’s comment ever was (then) Governor Reagan remarking on one radical student leader who called on him with his demands that “he looked like Tarzan, he acted like Jane, and he smelled like Cheetah.”
Anyone who wants to realise that there are fringe canadidates in US elections should check out the Congressional races at state and federal level.
56 Which probably attracted the sort of reaction that Jeremy Clarkson got in the South.
54 Wow. It explains the Swiss’ obsession with building nuclear bunkers. If you’ve got the ex head of US missile command running for office, suggesting a plan to blow you up, I’d build one or two just in case!
58 Reagan is such an enigma. It would be wonderful to pull off a line like “There you go again” in UK politics.
Ahhh, same old same old.
I look in on pb.com for the first time in yonks, and what do I find, a geeky but interesting thread about obscure politicians that quickly descends into internecine backbiting, partisan point-scoring, supercilious barracking and a mumsy intervention from Mrs Test.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
Or, as they say here, Fisculio nod hradnv saltu, poilo nad hrocny*.
*There’s a prize for guessing where I am.
62 You’re on the Edgware Road. I claim my prize.
51 Sean What was the name of George Wallace’s running mate in 1968, who advocated a nuclear strike against Switzerland, in order to enhance the value of US Gold reserves?
Wasn’t that fundementally the plot of the James Bond film Goldfinger ? (albeit Auric Goldfinger was attacking Fort Knox with a nuclear weapon).
61 Mind you, I also enjoy Chuck Colson’s “When you’ve got them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.”
62. Prison?
64 Yes, I think that’s right.
63. Nice try, but no.
Here’s another clue (actually the last clue was totally useless, I made all those words up)
The most popular food here is a watery kind of polenta.
66 LOL!
68 New York, New York
62 - Convention for Dyslexics?
68 Hackney - I Give Up. By the way - hope you didn’t miss the posts here on your Times piece. Pb.com saw it for what it was, we read between the lines. A surprisingly subtle and devastating critique of the UKs role in the the EU.
BTW I am not Googling for polenta.
69. Yes, thankyou Peter.
In remote parts of this country, they believe it is fatal to sleep with your mouth open, as a mouse might run in and steal your soul.
Oh f*** it, I’m in Romania!! How exciting is that. And it’s drizzling.
Salut from Bucharest. Now I am off to eat awful food.
La revedere to all!
73 Well you’re knackered then mate - you’ve got to keep your trap shut or lose your soul. Having lost your rhythm some time before - you can’t afford to take the risk.
73 Damn it - I wish you had been in NY, NY - I was hoping to say Missing you already, already.
O/T but just been listening to Evan Davis ?/ the BBC Economics journalist. I was just wondering why it was he found it so hard to say the word recesssion or even allude to it????
76. Recessions were abolished in 1997, didn’t you know?
Probably the three most notorious Presidential ads..
1964
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63h_v6uf0Ao
1968
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBDtdkKCcmA
1988
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC9j6Wfdq3o
Ohio poll(sorry if someone posted):
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/12/06/ap4412619.html
Brown’s soulmate?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_mRNTW4sjc&feature=related
Govt announcing they’re going for 42 day “compromise”, scrapping Stonehenge redevelopment, and THE CLINCHER, reopening Mull of Kintyre inquiry.
What’s the bad news in tomorrow’s papers?
O/T-”Her Majesty’s Occasional Opposition”
“Philip Cowley put out a useful note yesterday which I’ve only got round to reading properly (thanks Iain). It’s a second anniversary asessment of David Cameron’s parliamentary effort. But it’s also a first stab at predicting how Conservative MPs will behave if Dave gets them back into power.
It’s full of interesting facts. He reveals for example that 61 per cent the 2005 intake of Conservative MPs have voted against the party line. Prof Cowley says:”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/12/her-majestys-oc.html
78 - In terms of US political ads I think this one has to be my favourite.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4-vEwD_7Hk
Hansard 6th Dec 2007
Andrew Dismore (Hendon, Labour) Link to this | Hansard source
Last night was the first night of Hanukkah. Will my right hon. Friend take this opportunity to pass on his best wishes to the Jewish community and acknowledge its great contribution to our society and life?
Add your comment
Gordon Brown (Prime Minister) Link to this | Hansard source
I agree entirely. When I addressed the Board of Deputies of British Jews, I told them that their community plays an enormous part in our life, not only through all the voluntary organisations in the Jewish community, which do a huge amount of work, but also through the contribution that is made right across our national life by organisations that represent the Jewish community. I pay tribute to what they have done over the centuries in our country
Who did Gordon have in mind? Lord levy, Peter mandelson, David Abrahams, Mendelson
Re 62, SeanT “Or, as they say here, Fisculio nod hradnv saltu, poilo nad hrocny*.
*There’s a prize for guessing where I am. ”
Russia, Serbia or Croatia?
OT: I love this anecdote from Danny Finkelstein about the “nuclear swordfish family”.
The first time I ever met Danny he was waiting for a meeting outside William Hague’s office and his pager kept buzzing. After someone pointed out that he had a message he revealed that the message was actually “fish”, and someone had set the paging computer at Central Office to keep on automatically sending it to him
Re 86, Anthony, Very funny!
81: Labour tried a relaunch today (their third or fourth) but did it on the same day that the Bank of England decided interest rates.
It’s amazing how poor Labour are under Brown at getting their message out.
Peter Mandelson is no more Jewish than Hymie. Enough !
We had watery polenta at school with jam - Semolina
O/T When will the LibDem leadership result be amnnounced. Strangely, this market is as dead as a dodo, with £3K available to buy Clegg at 0.26-1 and no takers.
OT - Brown tells fib - shock, horror!!
From the Independent:
“Mr Brown said Mr Myners had made no donations to a political party when he was appointed as chairman of the Personal Accounts Delivery Authority in July. (He is paid £150,000 a year for a two-day week.)
Mr Myners gave £9,700 to Mr Brown’s campaign in May and a further £3,000 in June.”
Is it Alzheimer’s - or is he lying?
85 Benedict - seanT has already told us in #73 that he’s in Romania - did you have a late one last night?
94 Ironic to think that Myners was until recently Chairman of M&S, who for many years were mega donors to the Conservative Party. Rather like the Sainsbury family cancelling out each other’s political contributions over a long period of time.
52. I think you are in danger of projecting your views onto the rest of the US population. Many of those who poll as being against Iraq still believe it was a just cause but was “planned badly”. We should remember that Ron Paul is the sole anti-war candidate on the Republican side, so he will garner all anti-war conservatives behind him, but he still gets a very small share of the vote.
Huckabee has taken a hit this week, and someone above pointed out that not knowing about a report on the Iran won’t matter much to the average American. That’s beside the point. It will cause a media narrative of “Is Huckabee informed enough?” which will resonate, regardless of the original cause. My personal belief is that Huckabee will lose some of shine, and will back Giuliani, propelling him to the Presidency. I expect Romney to wobble from now on. He comes across as elitist and slimey, something which salt-of-the-earth Republican types detest - it’s the sort of accusation thrown at Clinton. In this situation I can imagine an anti-Giuliani vote clustering around McCain, but it won’t be enough to stop the New Yorker, especially with Huckabee’s support.
Regarding the Chuck Norris ad, this is based on a phenomenon of “Chuck Norris Facts” that has been going round university campuses for a few years ago. It is very talented of him to pick up on this and shows he is in touch with the younger voter.
My favourites include:
Chuck Norris does not sleep. He waits.
Chuck Norris once went to the Virgin Islands. They are now called “The Islands”.
Chuck Norris can win a game of Connect 4 in three moves.
Donkeys are hung like Chuck Norris.
re 93 Peter from Putney “85 Benedict - seanT has already told us in #73 that he’s in Romania - did you have a late one last night?”
Yes, but actually responded to his query before reading his later answer.
92 - he said that he donated money to Brown’s campaign but specified that he was only giving it on the condition that it didn’t get passed on to the Labour Party. So he was telling the literal truth.
He gave a political donation, but did not make a donation to a political party.
98/99 Bill Clinton has a lot to answer for - all politicians from all sides now use his highly literalist and mendacious legalistical approach to answering simple questions.
of course unlike Clinton nobody likes Brown and he’ll never win an election.
100 You mean as in “I did not have sex with that woman”, simultaneously banging fist on table for additional emphasis.
Will Brown like reading the Jewish Chronicle tomorrow?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7131540.stm
Dougie Alexander will be replaced by Baroness Ashton on QT tonight
101 simultaneously banging fist on table for additional emphasis
Is this where GB’s curious and oft repeated four fingered jabbing action on the despatch box comes from, or is it instead a vain attempt to conceal the otherwise ever trembling clunking fist?
103
Yes,wee Dougie has chickened out,it’s called ‘follow my leader’
re the previous Scottish poll. I’ve updated my Scottish electoral calculator and this poll would result in
Party Const List Total
SNP 44(+23) 7 (-19) 51(+4)
Lab 22(-15) 15(+6) 37(-9)
LD 6(-5) 10(+5) 16(nc)
C 1 (-3) 14(+1) 15(-2)
Gr 0(nc) 10(+8) 10(+8)
It predicted the right result last time and I was still confidently mopping up the SNP win bets until the last seat declared.
O/T I’m interested in how Labour’s difficulties could affect the London mayoral election. Not living in London I’m not sure to what extent is Ken Livingstone still seen as sufficiently distant from New Labour to appeal well beyond the party does nationally.
I know that there were lot’s of grumbles from some Conservatives about Boris Johnson’s lacklustre start to the campaign. I couldn’t help but notice this EDM drawing attention to his character witness for Conrad Black. Sure the EDM is absurdly partisan, but it does suggest a peculiar lack of judgement in supporting a man who:
`stole nearly $7 million from Hollinger through a complex scheme in which he paid himself non-competition fees following a sale of some of the company’s newspapers’ properties to another company he controlled’.
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=34611&SESSION=891
I can’t make up my mind if Boris is worth backing at 2/1. Labour aren’t doing well in the polls and London Tories had great local election results last time…but Boris just seems a bit crazy to win.
kingbongo .. unless it is against Cameron?
95-I’m not saying that they agree or don’t agree with the invasion. But the Iraq invasion it’s a disaster, you can say it’s because it was “planned badly” or thousands of other motives, but still is a disaster.And this is reflected in the polls, more than half of the American people want the withdrawal of the troops. I don’t think this would be the reaction if the invasion was successful.
Not sure about Romney, the press needs competitive candidates, for the time being he’s the one who can win in Iowa. And Huckabee may support Giuliani, but not now. As for the nominee, I think it’s too early to guess…
107 Henry - there does seem to be an extraordinary blind soft spot for Ken which wins him many tosands of votes from otherwise non-Labour supporters. Even the outrageous £20 per annum surcharge on our Coucil Tax bills, which I confidentally predict will continue for ever once all the Olympic bills come in, seems to have dented his popularity.
Although highly talented in other respects, I feel that Boris was entirely the wrong choice for the Tories and that he will lose comfortably - should you decide to back him, try Betfair where the odds are approx 5-2 and where you can trade out along the way.
110 4th line should read: “does not seem to have dented his popularity”
I believe Huck is Thompson all over again. Remember Thompson passed Giuliani in the Rasmussen polls and briefly in the Intrade market.
More or less the same voters have abandoned Thompson for Huck - the are still looking for a solid conservative with communication skills. Thompson proved to lack those skills, whereas Huck has them. On the other hand, Huck has serious issues in his political past and present. His enemies in the Club for Growth has a good briefing on economic policy.
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2007/11/updated_huckabee_white_paper.php
And now in becomes quite clear that Huck is soft on crime and has his own Willy Horton case brewing.
I believe he will not last until New Hampshire, but may create problems for Romney in Iowa.
34 - For months I’ve warned about writing McCain off, and a recent Survey USA poll of Ohio has some very striking head-to-head figures. I agree that Republicans really need to hold on to Ohio. Vs Clinton it is McCain 51-43, Giuliani 44-48, Huckabee 45-47 and Romney 41-51. Against Obama all Republicans do better in this poll.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
In general, McCain has done quite well in Clinton match-ups lately.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
It’s like deja vu all over again…
They were saying similar things about Howard and the Deaniacs..
It never happened. He is a good guy, but mind-numbingly dull.
He may get a good level of support, but he ain’t going to the Whitehouse..
41- Martin Jones- what a thoroughly enjoyable, informative and readable post.
BTW- where is Jan from Norway? Mike please email him to write a preface on the US situation. In my mind he has never been wrong.
Any opinions on the impact of Mitt Romney’s “Faith in America” speech. Apparently it went down well with Rush Limbaugh for one.
112- jeepers, creepers Jan from Norway. Just as I was writing a post to get your views up you emerge. I haven’t seen you on this site for ages. What a blinking coincidence!!
112 For months I’ve warned about writing McCain off
That being the case, you my wish to consider backing him at 16-1 for the nomination or 33-1 for the Presidency both available from Ladbrokes.
112-The economist has this:
“The case for John McCain”
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10251179
114. Whereas I am invariably wrong despite currently being in Norway!
112/114 Jan & Tyson - separated at birth!
107 Henry
PfP judges it pretty well. There’s something a bit apolitical about the Mayoral contest and Ken certainly seems to have the populist touch. He could probably survive a pretty strong anti-Labour tide.
Boris is generally well-liked but Greg Dyke’s comment says it all: ‘Nice bloke, but run London? He couldn’t run a bath.’ Or words to that effect.
The winning betting strategy is this. Recognise that, barring miracles, Ken is going to win. Back him whenever his odds go better than two to one on. Back Boris when above 5/2. Wait for the occasional Boris love-in, or Ken foot-in-mouth episode, or even an Evening Standard broadside. When Boris’s odds shorten, lay him, or back Ken as appropriate.
Money for old rope.
Thanks, Tyson. I have been busy - sorry - but I posted on Huck a day or two ago, predicting he would move towards 4/1 and then it would be time to sell. He is very close to that now in the Intrade market and not far away on Betfair, so I have been taking my own advice. Still he might tighten even more, just as Ron Paul did for a while after I strongly advised people to take the free money available at around 15/1.
Look for Hillary to move towards 2/3 and then buy.
110. Paddick at 25/1 with Victor Chandler and Corals seeme to me to be the best value bet in the London Mayor contest at present.
HenryG re Ken.
Ken should have been vulnerable last time but the opposition ran lame campaigns. Norris seemed to have given up before he started, and Hughes’s main platform was that he’d seen some festival or other in America and thought he could introduce it here.
This time round, Boris’s platform is … unknown, even by Boris.
Ken has always known what he stands for, why he wants to be mayor, and what he intends to do. Boris won the nomination and then announced he was going into purdah to try and devise some policies.
Ken is remarkable because he disproves all the Blairite/Cameronian spinners’ nonsense about the necessity of triangulation, holding the middle ground, and staying on message. He even answers questions!
Whether you think Boris would be any good or not, people are getting carried away when they say that he will be a “disaster”. The Mayor really doesn’t have that significant powers, and i’m sure the Boroughs will be quite happy to have someone stopping their own powers being nicked off them. What’s the worse that he could do? Seriously?
117 PfP. I really am considering buying even more McCain - some would say throwing good money after bad - but I’m already in deep and recently I’ve only bought him at 19/1 in New Hampshire (Unibet), which I think is better value than 16/1 for the nomination.
A few more good head-to-head and him closing even more in on the struggling Romney in NH and I will buy even more.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html
And just to be clear - I don’t expect McCain to prevail, but at 16/1 he is value, IMO.
Thanks for the comments and advice on the London mayoral election. Very interesting.
In the USA the key figure on the Republican side is Ron Paul. Not because he will win but because of what he represents.
Paul is the opposite of Bush: low spending, isolationist, anti-Iraq war, and so on. Respect the constitution, and favour states’ rights over the Federal government. This is attractive to a lot of Republicans who know in their hearts Bush has been a nightmare but who are nonetheless staunchly GOP. Paul supporters (who incidentally are semi-detached from Paul himself) have raised enormous amounts of money.
Now, in my view what this shows is that the Republican nomination is wide open. The Republican coalition has been split by Bush, and the nomination can be won by whoever can put it back together.
I still do not believe Boris will make it as far as the ballot paper.
102 dr spyn “Will Brown like reading the Jewish Chronicle tomorrow?”
Hell hath no fury like a donor scorned.
New electoralcalculus prediction - con majority 8.
Jan, Huckabee and Thompson represented different types of Republicans. Thompson is much more middle of the party and his views represent most mainstream Conservatives, although all the other wings would be prepared to vote for him - had he not been rubbish. Huckabee on the other hand, represents the religious wing. The religious right has realised how much it has come to be hated and is now dismissing its Republican ideology to return to a more Christian one: helping thy neighbour, looking after God’s planet etc. Huckabee represents this and the religious (about 30% of the party) will not abandon him. However, Huckabee’s surge has recruited more mainstream Conservatives disillusioned with Thompson and you’re right that they will probably peel away as they become more aware of Huck’s immigration and big-spending views. But it should be remembered that there are two constituencies here: mainstream conservatives and the Christian bloc. Thus Huckabee will lose some of his current support, but still retain a very significant chunk.
128. Most Republicans are also fiscal conservatives and realise that going back to the gold/silver standard is a very nutty idea. The isolationists in the party are under 15%. Ron Paul has no support other than the survivalist nuts stockpiling guns for when the UN invades America to set up the New World Order.
O/T
Seems like trouble in store for the Home Secretary !
Police may demand right to strike in pay row
ANGRY police officers may demand the right to strike for the first time in history in a row over pay.
Police Federation leaders have reacted furiously to the contents of a leaked letter from Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, which suggests she plans not to backdate an agreed pay rise.
Last night the union’s national chairwoman, Jan Berry, said Mrs Smith’s “contemptuous behaviour” had led to large numbers of officers demanding the right to strike. It is a currently a criminal offence under law for police to take industrial action.
The Home Secretary’s letter makes clear she plans to announce today that she “accepts” the 2.5 per cent award for 2008 from the Police Arbitration Tribunal, but will refuse to honour the independent body’s recommendation that it should be backdated to cover the three-month period in which it was negotiated.
The letter to Chancellor Alistair Darling said the effect of that would be “to produce a headline settlement of 1.9 per cent”, which is within the Government’s public sector pay strategy.
Ms Smith plans to cut the award by 0.6 per cent – about £30m – by implementing it from December 1 rather than September 1, the beginning of the police pay year, in effect making it a nine-month award.
Ms Berry said: “This is contemptuous behaviour by the Home Secretary, and has rightly angered the 140,000 police officers in England and Wales who have been waiting patiently for their pay award since 1st September.
“This is a cheap shot by a Home Office, not fit for purpose, seeking to remedy their own financial mismanagement by penalising police officers to the tune of £30.5m; money that is rightly theirs, money they’ve worked hard for.
“There are a number of officers who are now saying we should have the right to take industrial action. In the light of this letter, we are calling an emergency meeting of national and local Police Federation leaders in London next week. Police officers should either have full industrial rights or independent binding arbitration.”
But union leaders locally refused to be drawn on whether members should strike.
West Yorkshire Police Federation chairman Tom McGhie said: “It is extremely disappointing to read these comments and if they are true they really are a slap in the face to police officers.
“It just shows that the Government does not value the police force at all. We will be doing everything we can within the law to challenge this decision.”
Humberside federation chairman Steve Garmston said: “It is quite apparent that the Home Secretary has never intended to negotiate a fair and reasonable settlement with the police.
“It is a criminal offence for police officers to take strike action and it is obvious that Ms Smith sees this as a sign of weakness and a green light to exploit my members. Whilst the thought of going out on strike and causing absolute chaos to the public is abhorrent to most police officers, this kind of treatment is hardening attitudes and ruining morale.”
O/T PtP referred upthread tomoney for old rope of which there can be no finer example than the BBC’s SPOTY vote-in this Sunday evening. Essentially it’s already a two horse race between Lewis Hamilton, currently 4-9, and Ricky Hatton, currently 11-4, after which they go 12-1 bar.
IMO Lewis is a shoe-in for this, the only minor complication being Ricky’s fight just hours before in Las Vegas vs Floyd Mayweather where the American is the 0.65-1 favourite. Whilst I do not expect the result of the fight to affect the SPOTY winner, it will certainly affect the betting odds and should Hatton lose, it becomes a one horse race, end of! It may be better, therefore, to back Lewis before the fight
Of course anything can happen on the night, witness Zara Phillips’ quite remarkable, some would say incredible win, but I just can’t see any outcome other than an easy win for Hamilton and I’m intending to fill my boots on this one!
133 “Police may demand right to strike in pay row”
May demand it, but wont get it.
108 Icarus
kingbongo .. unless it is against Cameron?
I said ALL politicians - I’m a tribal tory who thinks Cameron will make a great PM - it doesn’t mean I’m a naive ingénue. Cameron is a genuinely nice bloke….. but he’s still a politician.
136-kingbongo- after once claiming that you were a pompous Tory, and after a lovely self deprecated response, I have quite warmed to you.
But your suggestion that Cameron will make a great pm. Come on now, fantasy, and wishful thinking, partisan support, all have combined to make you quite irrational. Feeling a bit feverish now, I think you probably need a lie down, and a good double dose of hot lemon!
137 - It’s OK Tyson. There is still the odd Labour supporter who pops up now and again to say that Gordon will be a great PM. At least Cameron is still, as they say, a known unknown.
136 137
Will Cameron make a great pm?
Well so far you would have to doubt it. After all he has made mistakes and should (? maybe not?) be further ahead after the current Labour series of semi own goals and debacles.
On the other hand he has done a remarkable job in getting his party to largely fall behind him. They may grumble and often feel he is going soft etc.. and the older and more right wing buffers and supporters don’t like it - see Heffer.
But these people tend to be of the “one more heave and we’ll win school”.. neglecting the unfortunate fact that the old Conservative politics just did not appeal to the broader electorate.
Personally I’m undecided. There apppear to be a lot of Conservative shadow ministers who are either being clever, saving energy and thinking a lot.. cos they are not opposing hard.. or they are just plain lazy and lost.
I dunno.
135 Indeed Cerrig, the Police are not really in the strongest position to go about demand anything right now. If they demand the right to strike, the public might demand the right to a few straight answers.
Who exactly lied to the Menendez inquiry might be a good starting point.
138- Alex- no, no not possible. Surely not. Who, when, how could possibly even in their most wildest, demented, weirdist, most oddball, screwball fantasies could think Brown will be a “great PM.”
I’ll grant you this- Cameron is in a much higher league than Brown. Not saying that much though.
I will tell you one thing- when you have complete derision for the government, despise the opposition, and still hold a healthy disdain for the LD’s, one feels very liberated.
Re. 95, I’ve just seen Romney on C4 News - what an insincere, and condescending lightweight. He makes Dan Quayle look like Thomas Jefferson.
142 Careful though Richard. Before you put your money down, ask yourself whether that kind of thing goes down well with American voters.
I saw it too and had the same thought as you. But then you and I would never have bought a second hand car from Richard Nixon.
139- Madasafish- Blair did not make 1 tiny mistake in opposition. Not one that I remember. And even Blair didn’t come anywhere near being a great PM. A pretty damned good one, but nowhere near great.
So Cameron has blundered, and largely benefited about the travails of the Labour government.
I think the last high calibre leader we had was Paddy- probably on par (even above) Blair. Before that Thatcher
143. But Nixon is widely disliked in the US now. Romney’s style wouldn’t be debilitating among Democrats, but to stick-to-your-guns, say-it-like-is Republicans, he won’t go down well.
134 Peter, you are right; Hamilton is pretty much a shoo-in.
The Hatton fight is a risk though. If he wins, even the household plants and retired cabbages that make up most of the SPOTY audience may notice that a) he is a sportsman, b) he has some personality and c) he is a world champion. If the Living Dead that run the show also choose to give some prominence to these facts, the boxer could just upset the odds.
What surprised you about Zara Phillips’ success? She’s a Royal, and the Beeb fawns over her. What further qualification was necessary?
143- PtP- good point. And who voted for Dubya in any place.
I think Romney is the man to beat for GOP- interesting though that Jan from Norway still rates Mr Chips (McCain), and number 42 old Huckabee.
I never thought though that Guliani stood much of a chance. Just too much going on, and the guy just doesn’t take to hard work.
Anyhow all immaterial because I am utterly convinced that the US is in for 8 more years of the Clintons. I will back H if her price drifts.
140. The thing that has really got up peoples noses is the Home Sec’s refusal to backdate the award to when it was due from. There is no real appetite to obtain the right to strike, but it’s just about the only card the police have left in the ‘negotiations’. Danger is, even discussing striking is technically illegal for police officers so they have to be very careful.
De Menezes was the Met’s cock up. Not really fair to link it to the pay of a police officer in say Cumbria, but I take your wider point.
144. By the time Blair came around, the media was so anti-government - and left-wingers so willing to change - they would have never mentioned any mistakes. Cameron’s facing a split media and a much larger resistant chunk of his party.
124
‘He even answers questions!’
Londoners (and most likely the police) certainly look forward to Ken answering questions on the