Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
December 7th, 2007
Why Can’t Labour Motivate Its Identifiers?
Support for the parties, as measured by opinion polls, ebbs and flows over time, but one thing remains constant. More people identify with the Labour Party, even at times of great unpopularity, then identify with the Conservatives. The latest Communicate Research Poll is a good example of this. The Conservatives lead Labour by 40% to 27% in terms of voting intention, yet Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% to 24% in terms of voter identification. Labour have led, in terms of voter identification, since at least 1945, yet the Conservatives have been in government for 35 years, compared to 27 years for Labour. How can this paradox be explained?
Firstly, Conservative supporters tend to be richer than average, and Labour supporters tend to be poorer than average, although social class is gradually declining as a determinant of voting behaviour. It is well established that the richer people are, the more likely they are to vote, and the poorer they are, the less likely they are. This is one factor that favours the Conservatives.
Secondly, Conservative supporters tend to be older than Labour supporters. Older people have always been more likely to vote than younger people, but in recent years, turnout among pensioners on the one hand, and people aged 18-34 on the other, has diverged to a remarkable degree. According to MORI, about 45% of 18-34 year olds voted in 2005, compared to 75% of people aged 65 or over. This is a trend that benefits the Conservatives to an enormous degree, and can only have been exacerbated by the move to make postal voting easier. In my experience, very large numbers of Conservative voters now vote by post, and turnout among people with permanent postal votes is usually high.
Thirdly, ethnic minority voters tend to vote Labour by large margins. Unfortunately for Labour, the turnout among such voters, particularly black voters, is often very low. And the one group of ethnic minority voters that tends to have a high turnout, Indians, is the group that is most likely to consider voting Conservative.
Finally, there is the paradox that in quite a lot of the country, intense loyalty to Labour co-exists with enormous apathy towards Labour. In 2005, more than 20 seats saw votes in excess of 60% for Labour candidates. In no constituency did the Conservatives poll as well as that. Even back in the 1980s, it was very rare for a Conservative to poll more than 60%, and in general, the Conservative vote is more evenly distributed than the Labour vote. Yet often, a high vote share for Labour goes hand in hand with a very low turnout, often under 50%. In all likelihood, many people who see themselves as Labour can’t be bothered to go out and vote when the election of a Labour MP is a certainty.
There were five local by-elections last night, which were generally good for the Conservatives, but also produced one impressive Labour gain.
Derbyshire Dales District - Masson: Conservative 359, Labour 256, Lib Dem 126. Conservative gain from Labour, with a strong swing compared to May.
Maidstone Borough - Shepway South: Conservative 251, Labour 240, Lib Dem 173, Green 34. Conservative gain from Labour. Given that the Conservatives only lost this seat narrowly in May, when UKIP won more than 10% of the vote, they might have expected a better result. The Liberal Democrat vote share nearly doubled.
Richmond upon Thames London Borough - Barnes: Conservative 1643, Lib Dem 1103, Labour 91, Green 87. Conservative hold, with a good swing compared to 2006. This is in the marginal Richmond Park constituency, and will encourage the Conservatives.
Sandwell Borough - Princes End: Labour 796, Conservative 517, BNP 314, Lib Dem 29. Labour gain from BNP. The useless outgoing BNP councillor had run a pub that was regularly raided by the police, and was disqualified from the council for non-attendance. As a result, Labour won the seat with a strong swing from the BNP, and the Conservatives also advanced strongly. This is a classic case of the BNP alienating their own supporters through the behaviour of one of their councillors.
Wokingham District - Remenham, Wargrave and Ruscombe: Conservative 913, Lib Dem 237, UKIP 83, Labour 60. Conservative hold.
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Odd that Mike put his “Look at me, I’m in The FT” piece up on a Friday afternoon - He must have known that Sean would come along with his Friday election round up. Now no one will see it!
Icarus
In Richmond Lib Dems have 36 councillors to the Conservatives 18. The incumbent council would expect to be blamed for the increase in council tax, the traffic, the weather etc.
I look forward to you wheeling this out when tory seats start falling because they control so much of local government
I think that Labour seem quite good in motivating in the seats that matter (as opposed to the old rich cons who turnout wherver they are), hense Howard winning more votes in england in 05 but less seats.
Interesting piece Sean. Also thanks for the local results.
Sean - today’s piece is an interesting area of discussion. You mention that “Conservative supporters tend to be richer than average, and Labour supporters tend to be poorer than average”
However, whilst I’m sure this is probably still just about true, it seems to me that there is a growing tendancy to find voters in large houses in leafy areas with 3 cars on the drive contain “champagne socialist” labour/left voting types and our strongest Conservative supporters come from the estates where people have bought their council house. Social class is much less a determining factor than it used to be, but it seems there is a growing trend towards “bourgeois socialists” and “aspirational tories”. Have you noticed this too?
3 - Re-reading, I guess that is kind of your point 4 with a different spin.
Interesting that having been told week in week out that local council byelections have no relevance , the Conservatives holding a seat with a smallish swing to them assumes vast significance . On the day , the Conservatives did better at getting out their core vote than did the LibDems but even with a government in disarray , a LibDem local council to attack and a supposed attractive alternative prime minister , the Conservatives could not get as many voters off their backsides to vote for them than in May last year . The LibDem vote was down a little in Richmond but was steady elsewhere and increased in Shepway despite starting in a poor 3rd place in a Lab/Con marginal . The Labour figures at first glance do not look too disastrous but they were starting from poor previous results in 2006 and 2007 and are still at the bottom of the trough .
3 and 6, I’m sure the turnout among Labour supporters is a good deal better in the marginals, and that the gap between them and the Conservatives, in terms of getting their people out to vote, narrows sharply.
4. Class has certainly declined as an electoral determinant. Since the Fifties, the proportion of the electorate working in “middle class” occupations has increased to over 50% (I don’t personally consider that non-manual occupational categories are all middle class occupations), home ownership has become the norm, and most people are much more affluent than their counterparts were 50 years ago. The outcome is that the fanatical loyalty to the Conservative Party that once existed among middle class voters has diminished sharply. Working class Conservatives, OTOH, are just as numerous as they were 50 years ago - although their numbers have tended to fall in the North, and rise in the South.
Labour still have very strong support among poorer voters though, 48% among those in categories D and E.
7 I wouldn’t attribute “vast significance” to the Richmond result, or indeed to any of them. They (in common with most of this year’s by-elections) imply a substantial Conservative lead in local electiosn.
8 - As an aside - I seem to remember from my OU books last year that the percentage of people identifying themselves as working class as remained quite constant over the past 50 years - despite people getting richer/more middle-class jobs.
Have the Tories regained control of Maidstone (with Ind support) now, having lost it in May.
What we don’t have in this country though is celebrity politics like they have in the States. This article in the Coffee House show how Oprah has a large influence on Voters, I just don’t see that happening in this country.
Good to see the BNP being beaten in any seat and especially when they show their true colours of laziness and sloth.
11 Council is Con 27 LibDem 21 Lab 3 Ind 4
1 Icarus
He always changes thread when I am in full flow. He says it’s a coincidence, but we know otherwise.
Not all of their councillors are useless, though, and the hard working ones can get re-elected.
Mark Senior @ 7
Mark, I can’t work out if your posts are meant to be pro-Lib Dem or just virulently Anti-Conservative. You seem slightly bitter about last night’s good results for the Conservatives. Remember this was “real people casting real votes” and in Sandwell you got just 29 of them.
I assume this is because you only put up a paper candidate, so not to split the anti-BNP vote, but even so, it shows your party’s natural level of support without all the bar-chart and “2 horse race” nonsense.
Thanks once again, SeanF. Even by your own high standards, this was an excellent introductory piece.
It reminds me of a comment I once heard by the late, great, Screaming Lord Sutch, who was a good deal more sensible than he generally let on. His odd position in the UK Political scene made him a remarkably well-informed and objective observer. He always thought the trouble with Labour voters ‘…is that they just don’t get out and vote.’ It was this observation that caused him to be one of the few to call the Major victory right.
He would have made a great political punter.
On the subject of class, the picture is far, far more fragmented than ever, which is hardly surprising given the extreme occupational differentiation of an advanced industrial society. The days when you could just weigh the votes in certain working class areas, or leafy shires, are long gone…thank goodness.
7 But if the Richmond Conservatives can gain vote share in a by election that was the fault of the previous councillor, that does indicate that the Conservative campaigning team in Richmond is solid and voters are preferring the Conservatives.
Afterall the LDs only took over control of Richmond 18 months ago.
5. “aspirational tories”?
at the last election (and to some extent in other recent ones) the conservatives focussed strongly on a borderline racist anti-immigration campaign, which may explain their increasing popularity in certain social segments.
(reposted from the last thread).
Congratulations Mike. Quite a write up. A few more like that and your Grandchildren will be a shoo-in for the Bullindon Club!
I heard from a friend that Fallon was a very lucky boy. Though having just listened to the news it seems that the prosecution was claiming he was paid to lose races that he won! Even George Carmen would struggle with that I’d guess!
For those interested in an early Oscar and Golden Globe tip-’best cinematography’ to Roger Deakins for “The Assassination of Jesse James…” Remember you heard it here before all the competing films have been shown!
18. Yes - it looks like Kramer is done for next time..quelle domage.
12. Oprah is a special phenomenon though. The US TV media, including the news channels, is so based around entertainment, misleading allegations, huge amounts of bias in both comment and selective reporting of facts, that people find it hard to trust anything they here (unless they’re very partisan and just always believe their side). Oprah has such big influence not because she’s a celebrity as much, but because she has built up integrity where she is one of the few sources of information a very large chunk of the female electorate trusts.
Thanks Sean for a thought provoking piece as usual.
Clearly the Conservative voters seem highly motivated to vote this week!
The strange thing about this week is that last week there was a feeling that the LD activists had been energised by the Leadership election in the by elections. But in Richmond they either failed to put in the effort, or the voters have had enough of them.
I believe Roger’s Oscar tips last year were very good.
16 Graeme If the LibDems polled say 22% in every seat they would end up with no seats in Parliament . It is common sense that to do much better in some areas they must do worse in others . Clearly Sandwell Princes End is an area where we do badly , I can live with that .
18 HF , there are clearly many more factors which people take into account when they cast their votes than whether the previous councillor resigned or not . Yes of course the Conservatives in Richmond have a strong team but not quite strong enough to get out to vote everyone who voted in May 2006 .
ed @ 19
The Conservatives did not run “a borderline racist anti-immigration campaign” That is a typically smug and patronising leftist response to an argument you can’t win - call your opponent a racist. You are also sneerily labelling a whole section of society as borderline racists as well.
21 Ah a Conservative supporter who translates 1 council byelection result into a GE result in 2 years time . If I was daft enough to say something like that I would be deservedly ridiculed .
“Hear” rather than “here”. Terrible mistake.
OT. I just heard that Brown has decided not to go to a conference because Robert Mugabe will be there. I must say that this sort of grandstanding doesn’t inspire confidence. After Iraq it must be obvious that the only way to resolve international problems is to meet with those you oppose.
I can’t see any reason for this one man boycott other than to appeal to the Mail and other nut-job newspapers.
ed, Graeme doesn’t want you using that word again. Leave borderline out next time.
Mark Senior @ 24 - “Clearly Sandwell Princes End is an area where we do badly , I can live with that”
So you won’t ever be using the line that “Conservatives have no Councillors in Liverpool, Manchester or Newcastle” then, as the same argument could easily be made. (although, unlike you, I would never write off whole areas of the country and say that I can “live with it”)
24 Mark, not 18 months ago but now looks like a different situation.
26 the only quibble I have is a few ward by elections translated into a UK GE forecast. Interpreting one ward to the rest of the constituency is a reasonable forecast IF there are clearly factors that are attributable to the whole constituency.
19
I agree. The Conservatives were just racist as usual.
Personally I call British Jobs for British Workers a typically Tory piece of racist propaganda. And when they impose immigration controls it just proves that the Government are typical Conservatives: racist and bigotted.
25. Even as someone who identifies as Conservative in the UK, Howard’s campaign was certainly very close to the line and there was a lot of what they call “dog whistling” in Australia. The whole “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” line seemed to suggest that they were thinking something they couldn’t say outright but was implied in their rhetoric. A similar story with the gypsy camps. I happen to think that, the absurdness of “asylum camps” in other countries apart, the Conservatives were right on both issues. But the way they hinted with their rhetoric was nasty. I guess appealing to a similar section of the electorate was the same reason they backed ID cards.
32. It’s exactly the same situation. I don’t believe Brown or Howard are racist, but both seem to have been willing to tap into racist sentiment in the country for political gain.
30 I have not written off whole areas of the country , we have one MP in Birmingham which is not that far from Sandwell and we have councillors in 2 wards in Sandwell itself more than the Conservatives have all the cities you mention .
31 You are a card HF , if I interpret all the ward results in Watford to indicate that the LibDems are favourites to win the GE there , that is unreasonable but you can take 1 ward in a constituency and make a reasonable forecast . A man from Mars would be scratching his 2 heads in bewilderment .
re 28 and I can’t see any reason why he’d boycott Mugabe and not that other tyrant King Abdullah, except perhaps that the Saudis have got oil and we sell them our arms so that they can terrorize their people.
23 “I believe Roger’s Oscar tips last year were very good.”
He was virtually 100% accurate, HF. It completely ruined his reputation as the anti-tipster.
Next week’s by-elections look interesting 5 Conservative seats, 3 Lib Dem (1 very close, with 3 seats the Tories were in first place by 6 votes), 1 Green and 1 Independent.
re 35 well it could hardly be closer as they are adjacent.
As someone who gets his share of stick for bothering to post here I think people should lay off Sean Fear - he identifies himself, tells us his poltical views, and every week has a good shot at giving us an impartial assessment. If we think he doesn’t quite manage it at times, we’re free to express a different view, but overall I think he’s a real asset to the site.
35 Mark, when the candidate factors favour the opponent but the opponent goes backwards is the right time to believe that either the campaign team of the winner was better or local support for the winning party is stronger than the last time. Hence why it can be appropriate to translate a ward to a council.
41 Or as someone mentioned last night the ward is becoming more yuppified and democratically more favourable to the Conservatives - I do not know the area so cannot say whether this is true or not .
re 37 does Betfair have an Oscar’s market yet? I can find one for Norwegian Idol, of all things, but not an Oscar’s one.
42 oops demographically not democratically
40. Completely agree Nick P. Excellent and very interesting article Sean Fear. Thanks.
28: Roger, that was announced a month ago - it’s because the EU has imposed a travel ban on Mugabe as part of its not very effective sanctions, and then waived it the first time it arose, for this conference. Since Mugabe’s behaviour has got worse rather than better, the argument is that it’s a bad idea to let him come and strut his stuff. Because it’s a former British colony, our wlilingness to hobnob with him carries much greater weight than, say, Denmark’s.
Nick P @ 40
Who is having a go at Sean? I haven’t read any criticism of him on here tonight. I agree, he posts well researched and informative stuff and is generally “impartial, although identifying as a Conservative”. A bit like yourself for Labour. (except for your post on “Tories on the back foot over donations” yesterday, which was straight out of Mandelson Towers).
20 “I heard from a friend that Fallon was a very lucky boy. Though having just listened to the news it seems that the prosecution was claiming he was paid to lose races that he won! Even George Carmen would struggle with that I’d guess!”
I can think of several explanations which would not tax the intelligence of a George Carmen. In fact they would be fairly obvious to a regular follower of the turf.
It is very difficult to persuade a horse to do something it does not want to. Just as some refuse to run despite the rider’s best efforts, others refuse to slow down when requested.
Another reason could be that perhaps Fallon was at odds with the gentlemen in question. This could be for a number of reasons. One might be that Fallon is an honest person. Another might be they weren’t paying him enough. Another could be that whilst they had layed the horse to lose, he had backed it to win, knowing that their bets had increased the value available.
I do not wish to suggest by this that Fallon was guilty of any impropriety. I merely indicate that there are many perfectly credible possibilities to explain what to a non-racing person may appear to be highly perplexing circumstances.
What was the result in Barnes in the locals before Kramer held the seat in 2005?
49 - found it!
John Syers Ross The Conservative Party Candidate 1464 Elected
Christine Coralie Percival The Conservative Party Candidate 1444 Elected
John Colin Yandle The Conservative Party Candidate 1427 Elected
Catharine Sarah Frances Gent Liberal Democrat 1221
Barbara Westmorland Liberal Democrat 1140
Paul Alexander Dare Liberal Democrat 1094
Ann Frances Neimer Labour Party Candidate 220
Barbara Underwood Labour Party Candidate 209
Ronald Howard Lumborg Labour Party Candidate 200
49, 50 ,51 - that’s about a 4% swing to the Tories from the elections in 2002, when they swept the council. Kramer went on to hold the seat in 2005 with a 7.26% majority. You could argue that that swing would wipe her out. But an incumbency factor should mean she is home and dry.
48. Do I take it from your post at 48 that you might also think he’s been a very naughty boy?
51 Sam , the ward appears to have had developement demographically favourable to the Conservatives post 2002 for example the Harrods repository site but I have no idea when this change took effect .
53 - so, given this development, can we spin it that the results are, in like for like terms, worse for the Tories?
Kramer is certainly safe in that case!
54 LOL Sam we LibDems don’t spin do we ?
Socrates at 33,
“I guess appealing to a similar section of the electorate was the same reason [the Conservatives] backed ID cards.”
Umm. They didn’t.
Howard tried to bring the Conservatives in on the pro-ID card line but backed down in the face of furious resistance from within the Shadow Cabinet. In the end, he compromised with the resistance by permitting Davis to set out his stall against the ID cards in the debate and set the whip to abstention on the grounds that “we’ll allow the Government to make their case (but the Bill will fail due to the oncoming election anyway)”
The Lib Dem spokesman congratulated Davis on a very fine anti-ID card speech and needled him on the “but will abstain” ending. I watched the entire debate because support for the ID card Bill would have been an absolute deal-breaker for me. I wrote to Davis on the issue when Howard started to try to bring the Conservatives over to the pro-ID card camp; from his reply and his speech in the debate it was obvious that opposition to the ID card Bill was a significant point of principle for him. He could accept abstention as the Parliament would end before the Bill was passed, but not a vote for it.
As outright rebellion against the leadership in the run-up to a GE would have killed his own leadership plans stone dead (the “Davis disloyalty” rumours were strong enough anyway - a resignation from Shadow Home Secretary over the issue immediately prior to a GE would have destroyed his chances. And I can’t imagine that Howard would have backed down over anything short of a credible threat to do just that, considering his own attraction to the idea and the huge pressure from the Murdoch press in favour of it), I’m pretty convinced that the Tories are not going to switch to support for ID cards.
Cameron has held the line against them despite strong pressure from the Murdoch press already, in any case.
20 - There’s a lot of positive noise about ‘Sweeney Todd’ for a best picture nom, and Depp as best sctor for it. The field looks a bit more wide open than last year where there were a lot of obvious noms. People like Forest Whittaker and Helen Mirren (plus Scorsese’s not particularly deserved award in comparison to his earlier work) were nailed on for the actual Oscars.
On last year’s Oscars Roger got 5 right and 4 wrong but two of his second choices also won, I suggested that he shouldn’t leave out ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ and put ‘Jennifer Holliday’ for best supporting actress above his suggestion of Blanchett.
Now if anyone wanted to know about the Tony’s I called them pretty much 100%.
http://tinyurl.com/2vywxj
52, Roger,
I’m half expecting the Francis Urquhart response from PtP to that:
“You may very well think that; I couldn’t possibly comment”
(I hasten to add that I personally have no knowledge of the case)
40 - Nick, couldn’t you quite bring yourself to say, unequivocally, that Sean is a real asset to the site, without the mean spirited and totally unnecessary inclusion of the word “overall”?
57 Well last year was last year, what we’d really like to know about are next year’s Tonys.
59 come on. Don’t nit pick, that was a post in defence of Sean.
51 - I don’t think she’s at all safe.
58 LOL! That did actually cross me mind, Andy, but on reflection I decided Roger’s post merited a more circumspect reply.
I think a lot of things about this case, many of which I would prefer to keep to myself. One opinion I am happy to share is that the police made a right mess of the investigation. Then when you think of the catalogue of errors that were committed by some of the Met’s finest in pursuit of the hapless Menendez, is it surprising that a humble plod in pursuit of a bunch of racing types should prove peculiarly inept?
Somebody needs to get hold of the Force and keep it a damn good shake up. It just doesn’t appear to be ‘fit for purpose’.
37 - Well he did make one glaring error, but let’s not nitpick
56. Yes, I remember the kerfuffle now. Davis’ stand on ID cards, and his passion against extending holding without trial limits, have really made me re-evaluate my (originally negative) view of him. I have always appreciated that the Conservatives are generally anti- though and it was just Howard at the top bringing forward support for the issue.
60 - ‘Atonement’ looks to be the closest to being a definite best picture nom, I’d say it’s the one to beat.
‘There Will Be Blood’ is looking good but it’s not released in the UK until next year so I can’t really say (same with ‘Sweeney’ but I’ve seen sneak previews).
Why did NP MP feel the need to defend Sean F again??
I am hearing “There Will Be Blood” is excellent, as well.
67 OK, I’ll buy it. Why did he, Steven?
We most definitely need a poll.
Even one from Populus showing the Tories behind. That’s some evil stuff they’re smoking over at Populus.
Populus: Just Say No.
69 - Err, I don’t know - that’s why I asked…
69 - 47 made the same point…
According to the guardian, Brown has decided to send Baroness Amos to the Eu Africa summit instead of go himself. A move which has been condemned by Claire Short on the grounds he is only sending her because she is black. Probably true and I don’t suppose the African leaders will enjoy being patronised in that way. I still think he should have sent Tatchell so he could have arrested Mugabe.
67. To get to the other side
72 Oh…I’m sorry. I thought it was a joke. Like…
Q: Why did the chicken post on PB.com?
A: I don’t know, but it had nothing to do with political betting.
It’s the way I tell ‘em.
75/76 - two punchlines for the price of one…
76,
PtP, you’ve got a day job, right?
Gak!
Why won’t my smilies flipping well smile ?!
:->
I’d be surprised if Atonement even gets nominated. So far only Jesse James looks to me like a certainty. Ratatouille could well get a nomination which would be unusual for an animation and knowing the Americans there’s an outside chance for American Gangster. If it was me I’d nominate Eastern Promises though it’s realistically got no chance. This year has been particularly unexceptional so far.
78 Hmm..yes, but it isn’t paying too well at present, thank you Andy.
For some reason, smileys don’t seem to work when typed on the left hand margin.
That’s the sort of invaluable information you pick up here on PB.com.
Left field nomination - Ellen Page for Juno (in fact, Juno full stop). Ratatouille may easily win best animation but it isn’t strong enough for the main prize. American Gangster maybe, the Coen Brothers film whose name escapes me too.
What is interesting is the raft of US/Afghanistan/Iraq films. I haven’t seen it but it appears that Charlie Wilson’s War is good. Politicos on here would recall that he was the driving force behind CIA money going to the Mujahedin.
I’m very disappointed that Hot Rod may be overlooked for Oscar awarsd, though maybe it came too late for this years nominations.
The glorious, epic story of a stunt rider..and his stunt moped.
Is this the slowest night ever on PBC? I fear the site is shutting down for Christmas.
85. It wont, there is much coming up, not least in the US.
Good Evening
The Proper family’s assessment of tomorrow’s boxing match
When 2 fighters of this stature meet it’s impossible to predict the outcome, particularly given their completely different styles, even if you computer simulated the fight with all their previous fights, stats, etc you’d still probably come out with a draw. Two things for me, Mayweather’s reach and Hatton’s ‘cutability’. Similar to Hagler 25 years ago FM hits you with rigid arms, therefore you’re likley to cut and as we know Hatton cuts up easily. On that basis I’ll go for a tenth round stoppage on cuts v Hatton and at that stage I’d expect FM to be ahead on points having sniped away at Hatton using his longer reach which is 73″ to 67″.
Must be a winning betting somewhere and I will unearth it if it takes me all night.
87. Some bookies may be offering odds on a cuts stoppage though i noticed one that was, Paddy Power, isnt any more.
O/T Lib Dem Leadership.
Was looking at “Lib Dems For Chris” tonight.
Looking back at;
“EXCLUSIVE: Canvassing reveals undecideds flocking to Chris Huhne” December 5, 2007
http://libdems4chris.org.uk/2007/12/05/exclusive-canvassing-reveals-undecideds-flocking-to-chris-huhne/
“Chris Huhne’s campaign team have released details of canvassing figures obtained by an independent third party organisation which confirm a late surge in support for him”
Does this mean Chris is paying another organisation - ie not Lib Dems - to perform canvassing? Who are these people?
O/T- “ANOTHER POLL: OBAMA UP IN SC ”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/07/503892.aspx
and
“Edwards’ Internal Poll Shows Three-Way Tie”
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/12/edwards_internal_poll_shows_th.html
OT - I see ITV News have picked up on the Huckabee surge. Not suprising when you see the latest Iowa poll numbers. +22 up on Romney….
http://www.newsweek.com/id/74215
90. Edwards really has to show very well in Iowa if not win it. He’s been canvassing there for 4 years. It’s possible that the vagaries of the caucus system in Iowa may help him in the end up but he seems to have 3-4% to find on Clinton who seems to be the one slightly in the lead over time.
01. I’m beginning to think Romney is really, really in diffs. He’s played the hard cards in Iowa and hes going backwards. McCain’s pushing a lawnmower motions in response to Romney’s brush with illegal immigrants doing his lawn was a hoot.
Also I’m think Romney may slip in NH and have so for about a week, though hes a decent lead. Some of the local media appear to be coming out for McCain and Romney may see slippage to others too.
Perhaps the key question is not so much who is going to win but who is going to bomb out first and say goodbye to the race…is it going to be Thompson, Paul, McCain or possibly even one of the 3 poll frontrunners?
This thread has rather died on its feet this evening. I hope this was not unduly on account of my post at 59, following which Test accused me of “nit picking”, which I was not. By the gratuitous and unjustified inclusion of the word “overall” in his post 40 Nick Palmer conspicuously changed what would have been a defence on behalf of Sean, to one which served to damn him with faint praise.
Those of us, of all political persuasions, who have visited PB.com from its very early days will know that, Mike & Robert apart, no one has contributed more to this site than Sean. This was recognised when he was recently judged “Poster of the Year”, which he won by a country mile.
I hope Nick will agree that he was somewhat insensitive in his post and feel able apologise to Sean.
Extremely O/T
This has puzzled me for most of today.
Question!
Which leading political journalist works so hard that he barely has time to rest, though he manages to make time for play?
This owner of an ‘interesting’ face and ears that look like a black cab with the doors open is still a hit with the ladies. Well, one in particular, who succumbed to his rubber lipped charms a few years ago, despite his married status.
The end result is a four-year-old daughter who the man in question has never seen, though he does support her financially. Something to think about next time he is attempting to harangue a politician about ‘family values’, as his second family must cost a few hundred a month.
O/T I see Betfair have settled the bets today on the 2007 Election Date market.
93. I’d advice anyone who’s been backing Romney to get out soonish. He was always going to get a bump from the exposure of his speech but he’ll only go down hill from here. He comes across as sleazy and the camp he’s playing to are the ones that thing his religion is heresy. Plus he makes John Kerry look utterly consistent and would be destroyed by any of the Democrats.
It’s getting to the stage now where Republicans are starting to look at the race proper. This will always help Giuliani and McCain. I still expect Huckabee is aiming at a VP post, and I can’t see McCain choosing him, so a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket is still on the cards. That scares Democrats.
Advise and think!
Presumably the mega bucks are about to start arriving at Huckabee’s door - such is the American system.
97 I still expect Huckabee is aiming at a VP post
Socrates, I think you may well be right - pity there’s no betting market for the VP or for a “Dream Ticket”
97. McCain publicly said in an interview that it was perfectly possible for him to run on a ticket with Huckabee though he followed up with right now im more worried about the here and now. It would be odd couple stuff but the doors are being kept open. Logically though, of the current runners, if McCain keeps up the slow but steady upward momentum it’d be interesting to see Thompsons position as he, at this time has stalled big style and McCain and him get on well.
McCain is actually as close to what Republicans apparently tradiotnally stand for than most of the others
He just happens to have a mind of his own.
Re the yougov Scottish poll.
The Wesminster figures are: Lab 32 (39.5% in 2005), SNP 32 (17.7), COn 19 (15.8), LD 12 (22.6)
95 I assume I’m correct in thinking that the “leading political journalist” concerned bears no resemblance whatsoever to Sgt. Bilko?
Test is right, it is a slow night around here!
Just got in and see I’m being criticised both for supporting Sean Fear and not supporting him in precisely the right words. Hell’s bells, is this a linguistics exam, PfP? There are occasions when I think his Tory leanings lead him to emphasize his party’s success a little more than others (but not as much as, say, me), so I know where his critics are coming from, but overall it’s great stuff. I doubt if Sean found my comment mean-spirited, and it certainly wasn’t meant to be. (I’d do the eye-roll smiley if I knew how.)
I can’t believe it(well, I think I can =):
“There is now lively talk inside Downing Street that Alastair Campbell might be brought back in a senior strategic role in the New Year and, apparently, there are indications that Blair’s controversial former Press Secretary would welcome such a role.
More striking still, I am assured that Cherie Blair is now certain to receive a peerage. Of course, there are precedents for such a move - after all, Denis Thatcher was given a baronetcy by John Major.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/dailymail.html?in_article_id=500445&in_page_id=1790&in_author_id=382
The Westminster figures of the yougov Scottish poll, the breakdown of social class (ABC1 vs C2DE) show Lab more or less at the same level in both classes. SNP doing better in C2DE and Con and LDs in the ABC1.
SNP doing better among men and LDs among women. And SNP leading by a big margin among 55+
The regions breakdown has too little samples
101. John McCain is the one man who could give the Republicans a better image in four years than they have now. Huckabee would be well thought of as he has integrity, but his spending beliefs would well and truly split the party. Giuliani is being painted as a centrist but will be exactly like the Bush-Cheney administration in its foreign policy and willingness to listen to others. Thompson is just not capable of holding political office and is surviving entirely on his name as an actor. He would make the current government look competent. I don’t think Romney would be that bad but he would probably reverse the small progress on campaign finance.
106: Perhaps they are doing a Gowning Street panto and needed a wicked witch and an evil vizier. Seriously, bringing back Alastair Campbell will be hard to mess with ‘not flash, just Gordon’, and just make Brown look desperate.
re 96 So they have, they hadn’t earlier today
If I’d checked earlier I’d have opened something nicer for dinner! That might explain the slow night - those of us who knew Broon didn’t have the balls are out spending the winnings.
109-What about this:
“I am assured that Cherie Blair is now certain to receive a peerage”
What does Gordon expects?I mean, how does he think that the press and the public will react to her peerage and to “the Campbell return”?
111. I hope for him the Mail is just writing rubbish to fill its page
111: As welcome a retun as the Black Death in the 17th Century.
112-”I hope for him the Mail is just writing rubbish to fill its page”
Me too!
111, 112. As a Conservative supporter, I’m actually worried how much Labour looks like its going to destroy itself. I want us to get a couple of terms in power, but if Labour are bad enough we will get three terms ourselves. It’s just not good for democracy or either party.
On the other hand, I would love the Liberal Democrats to become the main left wing party. Still, don’t think that will happen no matter how badly Labour do.
113-LOL!
115-This really looks like self-destruction(if the report is true)!I wonder what’s next….
Meanwhile, the Daily Mail weighs into Ashcroft…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/dailymail.html?in_article_id=499986&in_page_id=1790
118-Nice article. I think that’s the third journalist this week to ask questions about Ashcroft. But, Nick, do you know something about Campbell coming back?
94. PfP. I think you need to reinvigorate your powers of textural analysis. I can’t on any number of readings find anything ambiguous in Nick P’s post. Infact I can hardly imagine how he could have phrased a more fulsome tribute without sounding insincere.
An honour for Cherie sounds perfectly reasonable when you consider the precedent set by Maggie and what’s more unlike Dennis Cherie isn’t tainted by business links with apartheid South Africa.
As this thread is already full of utterly bizarre posts, I might as well add one of my own and actually say something positive about Labour (this is strictly a one-off though) while not too many people are looking…
I watched Question Time on BBC1 last night and couldn’t help but be very impressed by the Labour representative, Baroness Ashton (a politician I’d never heard of before).
Although I obviously didn’t agree with much of what she said I thought that she said it all with good grace, dignity, warmth and honesty. Not only all of that but and she actually properly answered all of the questions put to her and showed considerable generosity of spirit towards the other members of the panel and respect to the studio audience.
Gordon Brown really ought to get the rest of his cabinet to watch that edition of Question Time then maybe some of them might learn how to better conduct themselves in debate.
Right, I’ve said my bit. Now I can go back into my default anti-Labour mode.
121 - Very true in all particulars.
121-”Now I can go back into my default anti-Labour mode”
LOL!
51/53 - re Barnes Ward
The ward has changed demographically since the building of Barnes Waterside and Harrods Village - I’ve lived on barnes Waterside since 1996 and Harrods Village was if I recall completed before the 2002 election. I’m not entirely sure but I think that barnes ward used to return Lib Dem councillors.
What I found interesting about the election (I should point out here that I am a Conservative Party member) was the amount electors who now use postal votes. I was helping out telling at one of the 3 polling stations and between 8 and 10am we only had 30 odd voters in total, and I think before 8 there had been only 20 or so. So when I saw the turnout figures I was quite surprised, although it had rained pretty much all morning before clearing up in the afternoon.
Obviously I can’t draw too many conclusions form a single ward by-election and extrapolating them across the whole constituency, although I think the boundary changes to Richmond Park are thought to favour the Conservatives ?
Meanwhile the wasn’t the foreign office wonderful in securing the release of Ms Gibbons story falls apart. It transpires that the FCO actively tried to prevent Ahmed and Warsi from going.
125-Can you post the link again, please?
re 126 How odd the link doesn’t work
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7132928.stm
127-Thanks…
re 29, Icarus “ed, Graeme doesn’t want you using that word again. Leave borderline out next time.”
re 37, Peter the Punter “He was virtually 100% accurate, HF. It completely ruined his reputation as the anti-tipster.”
I wonder how many people lost money going against his advice
Re 40, Nick Palmer “As someone who gets his share of stick for bothering to post here I think people should lay off Sean Fear - he identifies himself, tells us his poltical views, and every week has a good shot at giving us an impartial assessment. If we think he doesn’t quite manage it at times, we’re free to express a different view, but overall I think he’s a real asset to the site.”
As indeed are you, even when I vehemently disagree with you. I also appreciate the rules with in which you have to work.
Re 42, Mark Senior “41 Or as someone mentioned last night the ward is becoming more yuppified and democratically more favourable to the Conservatives - I do not know the area so cannot say whether this is true or not .”
I think we can safely say the runes here look better for the Conservatives, but no more. If other results follow we may get a better picture but there is no point arguing about it.
re 46, Nick Palmer “28: Roger, that was announced a month ago - it’s because the EU has imposed a travel ban on Mugabe as part of its not very effective sanctions, and then waived it the first time it arose, for this conference. Since Mugabe’s behaviour has got worse rather than better, the argument is that it’s a bad idea to let him come and strut his stuff. Because it’s a former British colony, our wlilingness to hobnob with him carries much greater weight than, say, Denmark’s.”
Quite right,
It is a disgrace that the EU can ignore its own ban for what ever reason it chooses to.
Gordon Brown is entirely right on this, 100% and I do not say that very often.
re 48, Peter the Punter “I do not wish to suggest by this that Fallon was guilty of any impropriety. I merely indicate that there are many perfectly credible possibilities to explain what to a non-racing person may appear to be highly perplexing circumstances.”
It does not perplex me, you just have to be able to convince me beyond reasonable doubt, and as the rest of your post suggests that is not possible, hence the judge throwing it out.
Re 51, SBS “49, 50 ,51 - that’s about a 4% swing to the Tories from the elections in 2002, when they swept the council. Kramer went on to hold the seat in 2005 with a 7.26% majority. You could argue that that swing would wipe her out. But an incumbency factor should mean she is home and dry.”
You could argue it every which way but lose.
We will see at the next GE.
Re 55, Mark Senior “54 LOL Sam we LibDems don’t spin do we ?”
:lol::lol:
Its the way ya tell ‘em
Thanks as always for an interesting article Sean.
107.”And SNP leading by a big margin among 55+”
That figure should surprise me yet it doesn’t, just about every person I know or speak to over 55 is quite pro the Union, but at the moment they are very anti Labour and some voted SNP for the first time in their lives back in May.
120.”An honour for Cherie sounds perfectly reasonable when you consider the precedent set by Maggie and what’s more unlike Dennis Cherie isn’t tainted by business links with apartheid South Africa.”
Roger, if I was being wee bit cynical I would connect this piece of gossip with the book that Cherie Blair is due to publish in the spring?
And totally O/T, I give you one of those straws in the wind so hated by most posters. Had a non political relative visiting who commented on David Cameron’s canoe joke at PMQ’s, they thought it was priceless! I was surprised because I did not think these sound bites really resonated with the public even in the news headlines outside us political anoraks.
Re: 124 Barnes used to be a strong Lib Dem ward 20 years ago. The Tory winning margin in 2006 [when the Lib Dems swept back into office] was only 180 votes.
121. Steven Whaley. Well said. A good and honest post. I thought the same at the time and nearly posted a similar view. Someone I think posted, as an implied criticism, that she reminded them of Margaret Beckett. I made the same connection but saw it positively, since I have always liked Margaret Beckett.
Neither have I seen Baroness Ashton
before but found her openness welcome, her personal skills admirable, her lack of any apparent guile disarming and her overall appearance a breath of fresh air. Who is she and how did she get into the House of Lords?
40/59. Peter. I am quite sure Nick P’s post at 40 was intended as a compliment to Sean and I certainly read it as such. Hence my vote of support at 45. Not sure on reflection from whom Nick and I were defending Sean?
106. Me. Brown desperately needs the political skill of someone like Campbell. Whether he could bring himself to accept Campbell I personally doubt. Campbell, or someone similar, is what he needs. But he also needs to be prepared for such a person to articulate and put in place a solution that addresses the major faults in style and communication that otherwise will see this government lose power at the next General Election.
Re 105, Nick Palmer “Just got in and see I’m being criticised both for supporting Sean Fear and not supporting him in precisely the right words. Hell’s bells, is this a linguistics exam, PfP? There are occasions when I think his Tory leanings lead him to emphasize his party’s success a little more than others (but not as much as, say, me), so I know where his critics are coming from, but overall it’s great stuff. I doubt if Sean found my comment mean-spirited, and it certainly wasn’t meant to be. (I’d do the eye-roll smiley if I knew how.)”
Quit while your behind
(Seriously I thought that was a tad nit picky as well)
Well, as a number of people have pointed out it’s a slow night. So slow this long time lurker with a pathetically low typing speed feels he can get a word in edgeways…
The US race fascinates me given the number of betting opportunities. Intrade is far in the lead on this, with markets on most of the early primaries and also the VP slot. Liquidity is low but then so is reaction time, so if you’re pretty well informed (i.e read this site) then it’s possible to make a quick buck. RealClearPolitics and Rasmussen are must-read sites for the latest info and polls - RCP has articles from a wide range of sources and Rasmussen shows all relevant polls. Both are well worth a read at least a couple of times a day.
I took early 66/1 on Huckabee for the Presidency with a view to hedging, as along with Romney (who I’ve got at 20s) they were the only likely candidates with Governor experience (on trends a massively important factor). Mike was spot-on in highlighting Mark Warner for the Democrats early on for the same reason, and it’s a big shame he didn’t run as I think he would have been a shoe-in with potential across-the-board appeal.
Re 110, ChrisA “f I’d checked earlier I’d have opened something nicer for dinner! That might explain the slow night - those of us who knew Broon didn’t have the balls are out spending the winnings.”
Its not that I don’t like you or indeed Peter the Punter, but when I offered you a lift to Beachy Head I knew for a certainty that you would not be in a position to take it up and neither would he.
Mid you, an annual Beachy head picnic? Good idea or bad whats the view of the punters here?
Re 115, Socrates, “On the other hand, I would love the Liberal Democrats to become the main left wing party. Still, don’t think that will happen no matter how badly Labour do.”
Your right, they seem a long way off going back to their constituencies and preparing for opposition!
139-stjohn-I understand that Brown needs someone like Campbell, but as it was last time, Campbell will become the news. Maybe Brown could get some advice without appointing him or letting the press know(at least Campbell wouldn’t be the news and Brown would “manage” his media opperation with more competence).
Good Night!
Why Can’t Labour Motivate Its Identifiers?
Because it has got so obsessed with reaching a Daily Mail Audience. You need to do both - core audience and centre ground
We have a choice these days as well - the LD’s and for some the Cameron Tories
I ranked the policies of the parties on my top 5 concerns. Even though I would only vote Tory if the BNP was only other party, on 2 of the 5 the Tories’ implied / intimated policies (because they are not that clear right now) were the best policy in my view. However the Tories did lamentably fail on the top 2 - economy/fairness and Europe.
The real story in Richmond is that the Conservative Party held the seat. Due to crap organisation and campaigning that was amateurish, any by-election in Richmond was considered a sure fire LD gain. They were better at the game. We now have not just a great meassage but also people on the ground capable of delivering the message. Kramer should now be scared….