Should Huckabee really be the favourite for the GOP nomination?
December 10th, 2007Tied for second on Betfair and average 17 points ahead in the last two Iowa polls
One of my first introductions to betting was John McCririck’s book on the subject which came out in the early 1990s. A concept that he mentions, which will be familiar to many users of pb, is that of the “steamer”, a runner whose price shortens dramatically - although as I’m sure that PtP and other racing experts will testify, simply because a horse is a steamer is no guarantee of its actually winning the race.
The formal start of the 2008 US Presidential Election, which will not be complete until Inauguration Day on 20th January 2009, draws ever closer with the Iowa caucuses taking place only three days into the new year, and as of now Mike Huckabee is very much the “steamer” in the race to be the Republican nominee. His Betfair odds were in double digits until quite recently but now he is neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney for second place, at about 5 (4/1). Not only that, but he has been storming ahead in the last couple of polls for Iowa, with leads of 12 and 22 points from Mason-Dixon and Newsweek.
So could he secure a big win in Iowa, a respectable third in New Hampshire and then continue his surge with a win in South Carolina ahead of taking on Giuliani in his supposedly “momentum-proof” firewall states including Florida? One of pb’s many US posters, Mike from New Jersey, had this to say in a lengthy post yesterday:
“… I do not think Romney can salvage his position [in Iowa]… Giuliani cannot win the nomination… Huckabee should be the favorite in betting right now.” Mike also warned against betting on McCain - and that for the Democrats, “…whoever wins Iowa wins the nomination…”
Mike’s full comments can be found at post 159 on yesterday’s thread, and Huckabee remains a buy for me in the Republican nominee market. American politics next year will see frantic activity in January and February, and unless the nomination races are incredibly tight, several months of “phoney war” between the final two candidates ahead of the summer conventions and the Labor Day kickoff of the official presidential campaign, during which time attention will briefly turn to other contests such as Spain, Russian Presidential, London Mayor, and Ireland’s EU Treaty referendum. The indispensable Real Clear Politics site is here, a must-read for the American scene.
Lib Dem Leadership
Vince Cable said yesterday on the Andrew Marr show that the Clegg-Huhne contest was “very close” - was he right or just trying to maintain media interest? The markets hardly seemed to have moved at all with Clegg still at 1.3 - or will the betting outsider win as in 2006?
Australia
For those of you following the counting Down Under, there are now ten seats which have completed their vote tallies and declared the final results - full details are available here from the AEC’s “Virtual Tally Room” and the ABC site is here - the ABC says the final totals will be 84 / 64 / 2, although the AEC has 8 seats still listed as “doubtful”, and Labor were just 7 votes ahead in the Victoria electorate of McEwen.
Australia is a reminder that actually we in Britain are fairly spoilt when it comes to counting and declaring election results, and that not all countries do things the same way - America is another country where it can take a while to have the final figures. Although some countries can pretty much finish in the space of 3-4 hours due to counting at polling stations (Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, Spain etc - even Brazil is quicker!) - there isn’t anywhere else in the world where an outgoing administration has to step down so quickly. Our “next-day” approach is second to none as far as I know, while by contrast a new Mexican president must wait five months to take office.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
The author is an analyst and pundit on UK and international politics
MessageSpace Advertising
I really think it should be made clear just how much a Huckabee victory would be for the grass roots of the Republican Party. Most people in the UK probably think of him as being similar to Bush, because of the religious aspect, but that is where the resemblence ends. Bush was very much supported by the wealthy Republican establishment, his main policies were always going to be slashing taxes and cutting government spending, was always going and he had trusted people like Dick Cheney around him.
Huckabee, by contrast, is completely his own man. He doesn’t prescribe to Republican ideology, but his own fundamentalist Christian ideology. This can mean very right wing views (seeing all abortion as murder) but also some left-wing ones (raising taxes, universal healthcare). He has been outspoken about those unnamed candidates who are “slaves to Wall Street” and has called the well thought of (in Republican circles) Club for Growth the “Club for Greed”. The establishment will be out to get him, probably be mild undermining at first, but if that doesn’t work eventually they will go all out. If he survives that, it will really be a huge split in the Republican party.
The question is then, who will be the establishment candidate? I’m sure they’d like Romney, but he’s (a) unelectable and (b) nowhere near charismatic enough to fight Huckabee. Giuliani is the probably answer - don’t be fooled into thinking his pro-abortion and gay rights beliefs will hold him back too much. Those for who its a central issue are in the minority. The bulk of Republican supporters are uncomfortable about it but his extremely tough War on Terror talk will more than compensate. They would rather a guy not do anything about gay marriage than someone If anything proves to be his down fall it will be his appaling conduct to his ex-wife. Thompson is just a joke, so we can safely dismiss him. McCain, however, could really come back - especially if the news from Iraq improves. I still don’t think he’ll get it, but I think he’ll surprise a few to be back in the running.
1. First paragraph: “Was always going to be amenable to their interests.”
Third paragraph: “They would rather a guy not do anything about gay marriage than someone who’s a ‘tax and spend liberal’, as Huckabee will be painted.”
Not sure how those bits got cut out.
With reference to your comment about the UK’s speed of changing governments after an election - it is bizarre and almost incredible that this is so often given by FPTP supporters as a reason to support FPTP, as if getting a quick rush of excitement on election night/morning is somehow more important than four years of proper scrutiny in between elections, or as if people would be annoyed or upset at the prospect of having to wait 2 or 3 days for the final results.
Just something I feel I didn’t elaborate enough upon in the last thread: why Giuliani is in such trouble.
The reality is, I think Giuliani’s been in trouble for a while. Romney’s enormous leads in Iowa and New Hampshire up until mid-November meant that Giuliani would be facing, not a Romney at 12% in national polls, but a Romney fresh off of two major victories when going into battleground states in Nevada, Michigan and Florida (as well as South Carolina, but the general consensus was that Romney losing South Carolina would only confirm that southerners don’t like Mormons and wouldn’t hurt Romney too much if he was winning outside of the South).
Now, Giuliani had the advantage then that he led in the polls in most of those states, though in some cases narrowly, and that Romney, while popular where he’d been blanketing the airwaves with advertisements, was not especially more compelling than Giuliani, which would give Giuliani enough ammo to beat back Romney. It was at least then possible for Giuliani to win at least three of the pre-February 5 states and then go into Super Duper Tuesday still leading the polls.
Initially, Giuliani supporters cheered for the fall of Romney in Iowa, but they were sorely mistaken to do so. Unlike Romney, Huckabee has the ability to charm the Republican masses, not through massive media buys, but through “Southern manners” that conservatives throughout the country and of many stripes seem to admire. (It baffles me, too.) This means that, if Huckabee wins Iowa as appears inevitable, then wins South Carolina, as also seems inevitable (unlike Romney, Huckabee has no “Mormon problem” and can thus win over all of the social conservatives), he gains massive appeal in the other early states as well.
Giuliani is therefore reduced, when combating Huckabee, to relying on the February 5 states as a bulwark. He’s not going to win places such as Florida and Nevada against Huckabee (though he can hope for a Mormon/non-Mormon split of the conservative vote in Nevada, which is 11% Mormon and thus about 20% of Republicans in Nevada are Mormons). Huckabee has surged in all of the early states, and now leads in Michigan and Nevada (and, I have confidence, in Florida in the next poll); Giuliani might have a hope in those states if he still led, narrowly, but all leads he had against Romney have been wiped away. The only pre-February 5 state that Giuliani stands a good chance in is Hawaii (which has not yet had a poll released, ever, so I’m just going on my gut here); Romney should be able to win Wyoming on the Mormon vote, though Huckabee could sweep through it, too. Maine is hard to guess on, but its nearness to New Hampshire and rural nature indicates a Romney victory.
The February 5 states are also dangerous for Giuliani. New Jersey and New York should be locks for him, and Connecticut may be safe as well, but these are all expected to go for Giuliani. (Similarly, Romney gets no boost from winning Utah and Massachusetts, and Huckabee from winning Arkansas, nor Thompson if he happens to top Tennessee nor McCain if victorious in Arizona, though the latter two are by no means certainties.)
Many of the states up otherwise are ones analogous to where Huckabee leads in pre-February 5: Georgia and Alabama are the southern, folksy states which will most heartily embrace Huckabee; Missouri and Oklahoma are similar and border Arkansas as well; Delaware is very small and therefore difficult to predict, but its Republican electorate is not all that different from one in the South; Minnesota is political similar to Michigan.
Of the other states, Giuliani has the additional challenge in Romney, who will win New Hampshire and probably Wyoming and Maine and therefore not be completely dead by February 5. He will be seriously contesting states where Giuliani might otherwise expect to be strong and which may not favor Huckabee: Illinois, California, Alaska. Giuliani could win some of these, but at expense of surrendering most of the February 5 states and thus the momentum to Huckabee, or Huckabee could even sneak up the side in any of them with the urban Republican vote split (or, in Alaska, the anti-tax Republican vote split). Once Giuliani wins only a handful of states on February 5, he is finished.
Now, the question becomes how to reverse this. I have in the past speculated that Romney could run a highly negative campaign against Huckabee to win back Iowa that would destroy Huckabee. I do not think this will happen now; Romney is too far behind in Iowa to see benefit in dumping money against Huckabee and will continue the strategy of New Hampshire and victory (which he might still pull off, but it’s unlikely). Giuliani will also not bother with a negative campaign in Iowa; he was at 5% (!) and fifth place in the most recent M-D poll there. Additionally, Giuliani doesn’t have a whole lot he can attack Huckabee on because he has scandals and skeletons of his own, and Huckabee comes off as much more honest than Giuliani; Romney could do it because his past is clean.
In the end, you must take this as opinion. I have in the past criticized others from putting too much emphasis on momentum, and I do not want to seem a hypocrite. However, I feel that the momentum against Giuliani that is building is not simply him losing in Iowa, it’s him losing everywhere, and that kind of defeat bodes very ill for his Presidential aspirations.
1. Socrates, the overwhelming impression I still get from the Republican field is that the candidate who is streets aheads of the others is “none of the above”. I can see the party going to its Convention with no-one close to 40% of the delegates, maybe no-one with a third.
By contrast, I think the primaries will have consolidated the Democratic candidate. The Republicans, come convention time, will know who they are up against. It is quite possible that in polling match-ups, each of the Republican candidates is down on the Democratic Party candidate by double digits. Is it just possible that rather than pick a certain loser, the Convention might come up with a “none of the above” candidate?
If so, any dark horses out there? For example, if the Democratic challenger is either black (Barack) or a woman (Hilary) - with a 95%+ chance it is one of the two and - a PLANET SIZED IF - the position in Iraq has improved in leaps and bounds after the Surge, then what about shooting both those foxes and picking Condaleeza Rice? Or are there any of the next generation Republicans who have sat out this cycle but who might be prevailed upon by their Party if called? I think if one could nail those guys down, given the current options they might be worth a small punt at big odds…
One thing where our American friends could help out us Brits please. When we talk about the Republican primaries, do they vote in each state for delegates who will all support the winning candidate (so winner-takes-all, even if he wins with 27% of the vote); or do they get a pro-rated number of delegates for each candidate. (I suspect that some states go one way, some states the other - but some steer on how it works would be helpful. Which are the big winner-takes-all states?)
Thanks.
6. In the Republican primaries and caucuses, it’s mostly winner-takes all (with some exceptions; in California, the winner takes some statewide and the rest are distributed across the congressional districts, and whoever wins each of California’s 53 congressional districts wins some some number of delegates for each; couldn’t tell you the numbers).
In the Democratic primaries and caucuses, the candidates with over 15% of the vote win delegates proportionally. In caucuses, this means that supporters of candidates that come short of 15% in specific regions will then usually transfer their support to their next-favorite candidate of those above 15%, part of why caucuses are hard to predict.
7 Mike, thanks for that.
Australia:
One of the hypothetical electoral systems which I have invented on a just-for-fun basis is FPTP with single-member constituencies, but with the Boundary Commission drawing constituency boundaries on the basis of equal area instead of equal electorate. (I suppose that one could justify it on a feudalistic basis, or something). It would have the advantage of having permanent boundaries which would not be subjected to re-fiddling evey decade or so.
In the UK, the average constituency (with 600ish MPs) would be the size of the Isle of Wight. If one applies the same system to Australia, the average would be about 51,000 sq.km., which is slightly smaller than New England constituency (Independent seat at the NE corner of NSW). There is a useful map here:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/map.htm
I suppose it would mean dozens of constituencies with zero or a handful of voters; the Boundary Commission could have a criterion of drawing the boundaries in such a way as to ensure at least some voters in each seat.
Apart from having a feudalist justification, it could otherwise be “balanced” by some sort of weighting whereby MPs have different voting strengths in the parliament.
P.S. in Australia the biggest constituency is about 76,000 times as big as the smallest; I think in the UK the ratio is about 1,300.
10. Australlia also possesses both the largest and second largest constituencies, geographically, in the world (Kalgoorlie and Lingiari).
11. Sorry, and third-largest, not second-largest.
5. I’m pretty sure Condoleezza Rice doesn’t want the job (and frankly, who can blame her?) - see her statements quoted at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_Condi_movement. Apparently her preferred dream job is the commissioner of the NFL.
As for the topic, I think Huckabee has a very strong chance in the Republican primaries. Strange though it may sound to many Brits, Bush has actually angered and disappointed much of the Republican grassroots, and Huckabee is the candidate who would most satisfy their grievances. He has a good chance of winning Iowa, and nobody should underestimate the momentum he’d get from that.
I wouldn’t rule out Giuliani yet - his campaign is well-funded, and despite some recent damage to his image, he’s still relatively popular, particularly in the Northeast. He might well have a better chance of winning the national election than Huckabee; but even if he does, of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Republicans will pick him.
11. The amusing thing about Lingiari is that it is 4,000 times as big as its neighbour (Solomon) with which it formed a single constituency before being split. A bit like the er… that fish where the tiny male is stuck to the large female by its mouth.
12. What’s the second-largest? I would guess Yakutia in Russia.
12 - the second biggest being Nunavut in the Canadian Arctic? Australia’s Grey and Canada’s Western Arctic must be up there too.
USA:
I remember previous presidential elections where one of the two main candidates has seemed wide-open at the early stages, but it always seems to become fairly decisive fairly quickly once the primaries start. I very much doubt if there will be any real doubt of it by the time they do their conventions, and we should get a good idea by March at the latest.
12. If Kensington and Chelsea ever gets jealous of Kalgoorlie, it could ask the Boundary Commission to include, say, the Moon in the next review.
Socrates @ 1 — Bush was never about cutting spending. Cutting taxes, yes, hence the deficit, but he believes in Big Government at least as much as his dear old dad and other Republican Presidents up to and including Nixon.
18. I’m not sure if that’s because he doesn’t want to cut spending but more of the fact the either can’t (no support) or doesn’t care *that* much. I just get the feeling that it’s just not on his priority list and over the years he’s just had more important things to deal with.
5. I think “none of the above” was a pretty accurate description of the race a few months back but I think now we’re getting close to the primaries, more have found their man. McCain has certainly picked up support and obviously Huckabee has too. That’s the reason I think it’s so open wide - We don’t have people flocking to Giuliani simply because he’s the most electable.
I’ve always thought it’s going to be decided by after first three races. It’s so open wide that the losers of the first three states are going to be dropped pretty sharpish and then we’ll see the battle lines drawn.
14. Nunavut is second-largest, Yakutia is fourth-largest. I’m not sure where Grey comes in, but probably after Western Arctic.
20. Er, well, just remembered my knowledge of Russian constituencies is out of date-or, rather, there are no more Russian constituencies. So Yakutia doesn’t exist.
18. Bush has always been about cutting spending, and if you take out the huge expanses of military under him you will see social programs in the US have been significantly reduced. His tax cuts have been even bigger of course - part of the purpose is to reduce tax so much that a future President will have no choice but to cut spending.
O/T Fuel protests in the UK may be back this week. From an email I received this morning:
“A group called Transaction 2007 is planning a “nationwide legal protest” this Wednesday. So far, the Transaction 2007 organisers have been unwilling to confirm specifically what action they have planned for this week. When pressed the groups’ spokesman, Chris Hunter, he said “This will be a numbers game levied against legislation. I can comment no further.”"
Very interesting analyses. Am I right in thinking that Huckabee is pulling in the ‘likeable optimist’ vote that did so much for Reagan? In the US, rather more than in cynical world of British politics, there always seems to be a big constituency for amiable, unintellectual patriots who cheer people up.
On a more minor domestic note, I won’t cross-post but see the end of the last thread for news of what could turn out to be a major BNP split. We’ve always been unsure what the impact of the BNP is, but if it divides into quarrelling factions, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen to its vote. Personally I don’t care if the Tories get it all - it’s good news anyway.
24- How about if it goes all to Labour? After all, some of them are former Labour voters in the first place.
Australia:
One thing that does seem odd here, is not necessarily the speed of the counting (although it does seem remarkably slow, as even Ireland with STV manages to have things wrapped up within a couple of days) but the fact that the new Prime Minister and Government have been sworn in with only 10 seats out of 150 with officially declared results.
In a smallish Parliament like Australia has, with a 2 Party system, in a closer year just 4 or 5 seats that are tight could swing the result one way or the other. Whilst it may have seemed pretty obvious in 2007 which way the final result is going, surely there is an obligation to have a fully declared result before a Government can change hands?
Are there other known examples of where a Government can change without the offical result being known?
With Clegg/Huhne the Hamilton/Cazaghe analogy plays out quite well.
The bookies got that one hugely wrong.With 10 mins to go on the voting you could still back Calzaghe at 6.1/1 on Betfair and lay Hamilton at 1.33.Therefore just because Betfair says Clegg looks nailed on that in my experience means that the value is to lay against him.
Oh-And i forgot to mention that Calzaghe won with a whopping 50000 lead over Hamilton.
Who would have predicted that?
27 Interesting point, Timmo, but the comparison could be misleading.
The Beeb’s coverage on the nite was very favorable to Joe. Also, his case was overwhelming compared to Hamilton. Huhne doesn’t have these advantages.
Personally, I think Clegg’s got it but I wouldn’t bet the House on it.
O/T For those interested in continental politics.
There was a parliamentary by-election in France yesterday to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn (who stepped down to become MD of the IMF)
The election had more media coverage than average because it was DSK’s former seat but also because the constituency includes Villers le Bel and Sarcelles, where very violent riots took place two weeks ago.
Turnout was very low, at 25.06%, even for a very impoverished area where turnout is traditionnally very low (50.89% at the GE last June).
the socialist (38.83) and sarkozyst (37.43) candidates are quite near after the first round. However, the score of small candidates should ensure a socialist hold, probably with a reduced majority (around 52/48, compared to 54.5/45.5 in June)
2 main lessons of this election:
- the Front National is in terminal decline: with days of riots in the constituency by young immigrants who even used fired gun shots at the police, their candidate only reached 7.47%;
- the left has not managed to mobilize heavily its voters in the impoverished suburbs against Sarkozy, as they managed in the presidential election.
Some more first class US posts this morning, continuing PB’s record of attracting the very best commentators for overseas elections - Chris from Paris, Alexander the Astute of Australia, and now New Jersey Mike and others from the US. Our thanks to all of them.
Mike (NJ) - Your logic is impeccable and it leads to the conclusion that the GOP race is so open, muddled even, that almost anything could happen. This does NOT cause me to wonder, a la Marquee Mike, whether an off-field candidate might suddenly appear (it’s too late and there’s nobody there with the credentials), but it does make me wonder whether whoever is picked will be absolutely trounced in the big contest.
I had been buying the GOP at nearly 2/1 on the grounds that it is overpriced. I think I’m changing my mind.
Btw, one small query….What’s the attraction of a UK web site for US posters. You are very welcome of course, but doesn’t our provincialism get on your nerves?
25 most BNP voters are of course ex-Labour (see Margaret Hodge). But, 24, anything that beats the BNP or demoralises them is a good thing. The other day I was pleased to see LAB Gain. Not something that happens very often!
Huckabee - I’m relieved, as he will undoubtedly beat Clinton. Hooray!
O/T - Iain martin at the Telegraph on rumours Ed Balls is putting clear red water between himself and the Brown Lord of the Sith (Institute)
“Strange rumours circulate that Balls is distancing himself ever so slightly, albeit discretely, from his mentor as meltdown hits the government. Can this be true? Surely not. If Ed Balls, the most loyal of the loyal, is starting to think in his quieter moments about life Brown, then the PM really is up a creek.
What it all illustrates is how panic stricken many in Labour have become. When a ship enters waters as difficult as this, many of the passengers, or Labour MPs, start to panic. A few old hands hold their nerve, but also start to quietly make calculations about when they will need to abandon ship. Others run around on deck shouting wildly, bumping into each other and making mad suggestions which they hope, mistakenly, will lead to their salvation (see the Ed Balls for PM campaign).
The air of depression and confusion has spread to the hard-pressed membership, those people who do much of the real work in a political party.”
O/T - Who was the PR idiot who arranged to have Brown photographed in front of an obviously unwilling parade of hugely unimpressed soldiers (of both sexes, of course) in combat gear?
Nurse - the sick bag again, quickly!
Socrates @ 22 — yes, Bush has increased defence spending but non-defence spending has increased faster. Bush is not about cutting spending and neocons are not about small government.
Re Huckabee — you make an interesting point @ 1. The Bush tax cuts overwhelmingly help the rich at the expense of what Americans call the middle classes, which covers just about everyone else.
32 Morning Test
“The air of depression and confusion has spread to the hard-pressed membership, those people who do much of the real work in a political party.”
Yes indeed. It wasn’t so long ago that I recall commisserating with Benedict the Blog about such a situation in which he and his fellow Party stalwarts found themselves.
How times change, and how quickly too.
A site I think some might find interesting is http://www.electoral-vote.com/. The current post there discusses Huckabee and Romney’s relative positions (Huckabee strong lead in Iowa, Romney second; Romney strong lead in New Hampshire, Huckabee nowhere). If you step back through previous reports, there are analyses of the open Senate and House seats, and records of the results of most polls going back to the beginning of the year.
Or, Test, some will think; “OK we are in the Sh1T, but I cant see any of these 6th formers with any chance of improving things. So I might as well make the best of a bad job” and even “You never know that Gordon Brown might suddenly need an expert in computing (such as Nick Palmer) to sit as chair of some sort of review of ID cards and similar matters”
32 - Test
Interesting analysis of Labour’s woes. One of the biggest problems they face in large areas of the counry is the decline of their activist base. They were not able to find candidates for 18 of the 40 wards in East Northants, covering the marginal Wellingborough and Corby constituencies and i know that this was replicated in many other local authorities in England. Any Party is in big trouble when the local base withers. I know. It happened to the Conservatives in the 1990s!
I think that it is still too early to see whether Labour’s decline is temporary, or whether the worm has turned. It is worth remembering that unity is the key and if leadership mutterings start to get too much into the public domain it could turn a downturn into an endgame.
Back on thread; Thank you to everyone who is posting on the US, Australia and European political scene. Very instructive indeed.
Off to London now; have a good day everyone!
After all the talk about Guiliani and McCain, Huckabee is creeping up on them but he still has some tough issues to deal with such as religion - although that is by no means insurmountable.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
New YouGov survey on rating of Brown Cable and Cameron underway completing Wednesday.
38 yes that is interesting. Council seats uncontested speaks volumes. In my opinion this is why Labour MPs demand the propaganda allowance and want to stop spending between cycles to counter it. Presumably it’s the only way Labour can get literature out in areas like that.
I was suprised to see so little coverage in the papers of Gordon’s big announcement yesterday. I fully expected it to headline every paper. AFAIK it headlined none. He can’t catch a break right now. I’m starting to think he is unlucky as well as inept.
Go on Vince,keep on at Gordon Bean,to use a boxing analogy you have got Gord on the ropes.
Doubts cast on Northern Rock sale
The Virgin consortium still leads the race for Northern Rock
Fresh doubts have been cast on Northern Rock’s future, with Lib Dem leader Vince Cable saying plans to sell the troubled bank “will not work”.
The global credit crisis meant no bidder could raise the money needed to pay back the £25bn in government loans made to the bank, he told the BBC.
33. Toe curling stuff…but did he offer our brave boys and girls a copy of ‘courage’ to inspire them in their struggle?
33. Toe curling stuff…but did he offer our brave boys and girls a copy of ‘courage’ to inspire them in their struggle?
Good Morning All.
Just a brief post to wish Mr Smithson well and thank Mr Maggs for stepping into the breach.
May I also endorse Patricia the Punter’s post noting the quality of our overseas contributors.
What ws Gordon’s big announcement, Test (41)? Not a trick question - I just haven’t noticed one….
Re. 5, and those who wanted to wait till next time, Jeb Bush is ruled out by his surname this time, but there’s always Bill Owens.
33.”O/T - Who was the PR idiot who arranged to have Brown photographed in front of an obviously unwilling parade of hugely unimpressed soldiers (of both sexes, of course) in combat gear?”
Oh I think that idea came straight out of the New Labour spin manual on how to grab a headline, any headline while tanking in the polls!
Badly timed and tasteless attempt to use the armed forces as photo opportunity as usual.
Re: Lib Dems. I think there has been aa bit of a move to think of Huhne as a safer option, since if he were to get into difficulties, then Clegg remains as a credible reserve option. Much will depend on how many people voted early- which will have tended to go for Clegg, and how many over the past week, where there seems strong evidence that they went for Huhne.
32. Whoever thinks Ed Balls is the saviour of labour needs their head testing. He’d get ripped to shred at PMQ’s, and everywhere else.
45 Tressage, well I thought handing Basra back within two weeks was the big thing yesterday. It led the BBC anyway. But today nobody seems interested. Evidently he blew his good PR for that one during the botched election.
48 It will be a bit of a mess if the LibDem membership has changed its mind after voting early. There could be trouble ahead - without the moonlight and roses.
50: You would have thought he would have had the brains to send someone else. Any ‘Cyclops’ tanks this time?
32, 38, 41 The decline in Labour activists.
At GE2005 Labour were only able to deploy 1/3 of the ratio of members as campaign workers that the Conservatives and LDs achieved. A clear sign of an unmotivated activist base. Since then things have actually got much worse and in the May local elections I believe I read that Labour put up fewer candidates than the LDs which is a remarkable position. The Conservatives put up significantly more than both. Labour seems to be giving up in many areas.
Iain Dale had some stats on this and the number of councils with no Labour councillors was significantly higher than the Conservatives.
If the GE is in 2010, on current trends Labour is likely to have 30% fewer members than at GE2005. Since 1997 they would have lost 2 out of every 3 members they had then (409,000).
It is highly likely that the LDs will be able to deploy more volunteers on average in each constituency than Labour. This problem is compounded by the fact that because the LDs focus on fewer constituencies their resources could well be a 2:1 advantage in Lib/Lab battlegrounds. Trends indicate that the Conservatives will be able to deploy on average 4 times the number of volunteers than either of the other 2. The SNP believe that they have many more volunteers than Labour in Scotland.
In GE2010 Labour will be outmanned by their opponents in the battlegrounds. It is also the reason why LDs need to target Lib/Lab battlegrounds rather than chasing any Conservative held seats.
Back on the US Election thread, I see Sidney lost no time in cutting Huckabee’s price for the GOP Nomination to 9/2 when he showed up for work this morning.
Too late, Sidney! We all piled on last nite.
Brown ought to stay away from Iraq unless there is something a PM must be there for. Announcing non-withdrawals or ‘thanking the troops’ seems a little unconvincing as a reason for all that expenditure and disruption when he won’t even go across the road to the MoD for a briefing.
Quite, Test (50). Gordon Brown seems to be reverting to the pattern of when he was Chancellor - coming out with a new policy announcement two or even three times, and pretending each time was something fresh.
I expect there is still time for him to go to Basra just once more before Christmas, to make the same announcement yet again.
After reading his comments about AIDS victims I think that although he’ll win in Iowa, his chances of winning over moderates (even Republican moderates) are rapidlly receeding. Even Dick Morris, who had been informally advising him, is now really pushing Rudy, which suggests that Huckabee was really designed as a ’stop-Romney’ candidate. The fact that he has not attracted any serious financial backers underlines this fact. My gut tells me that McCain is in with a very strong chance (c 25%) to win the nomination now that Rudy is being weakened by scandals.
Dr Cable,go for Gordon Bean’s jugular at this weeks PMQ’s and put him out of his misery.
Guardian:
Rock shares face further hits on ejection from FTSE 100
Northern Rock this week faces a mass sell-off by shareholders if as expected the stricken bank is ejected from the list of top 100 companies on Wednesday. FTSE tracker funds, led by Legal & General, will sell their holdings in the Rock when it stops being a member of the FTSE 100. It is estimated almost 10% of the bank is owned by passive tracker funds that have remained invested in the bank despite its value falling from more than £5bn to about £430m this year.
54. We certainly did. Thanks for the info there Peter.
Further ammunition to blitz NuLabour’s economic mismanagement!!
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/1210/britain2.html
UK factory gate inflation hits 16 year high
Monday, 10 December 2007 09:57
British factory gate inflation hit a 16-year high in November as manufacturers jacked up prices of petrol and food.
The Office for National Statistics said output prices rose 0.5% on the month, taking the annual rate to 4.5%, the highest since August 1991. Analysts had expected a 4.2% rate.
Raw materials costs also rose faster than expected, up 1.7% on the month, taking the annual rate to 10.2%, its fastest since July last year. Again, food and crude oil were the main culprits.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee did not have these figures when it cut interest rates last week to shore up economic growth and some policymakers are likely to worry that inflationary pressures are still rising strongly.
Economists said that the MPC is likely to take this as a reminder that inflation prospects are not as benign as in previous cycles.
The ONS said the rise in output prices was driven by the price of petrol products, which were up 18.5% on the year, the highest rate since July 2001. Oil had hit record highs near $100 a barrel last month. The oil price has since fallen back a bit.
Food prices also rose sharply, with home produced food up by 20.1% on the year, the biggest increase since March 2004. Imported food prices were 8.9% up on a year ago, the fastest rate since June 1996.
57: McCain will only get the nomination of the GOP think that they can’t win, running others would just damage them and he can have his chance as with Bob Dole.
57 McCain would also be fantastic. He’s my first choice. Genuine war hero (contrast with Kerry), been great in the debates, safe for Dems to vote for, sound on judges. Would beat Clinton easily.
UK factory gate inflation now the highest since 1991.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7136115.stm
62- Dont tell me you believe all that Swift Boat crap?
60
Oil has fallen more than just a bit.
About 12% from a high of $100 (for about 30 minutes) to around $88 (spot) as I write.
I expect consolidation around $75-$85.. as the Iran war prospects have reduced .. but it is winter so anything can happen.
So it is likely oil based inflation may fall substantially (with a 4-6 week lag due to supply pipeline)
60 - Yes what kind of a government lets world oil prices rise so much?
62 Test - My post at 31 refers. NJ Mike hasn’t got back yet, but when he does, I doubt he support your view.
There were some terrific US posts here last nite but none to give much comfort to GOP supporters of any hue.
62. I certainly do and so did America, luckily. The Swift Boat Vets incurred the rage of the nutroots because their attack was true, and worked. It included every single officer in Kerry’s chain of command at the time, the entire way up the line. But I have been in too many arguments with Diebold conspiracy loons who think Bush “stole” two elections (and argued that Kerry was a coward for not contesting the result of ‘04) to get back into it on PB.com - so won’t be arguing the case.
67 PtP, are you familiar with this website
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
If you’re betting, you should be.
66. Yes indeed. The last two weekends have been very cold and rainy. Just another example of the government’s incompetence over the whole matter of winter control.
66. The kind that starts wars in the Middle East?
51 Lynne Featherstone MP has stated in her blog this morning that after telephone canvassing this weekend she has found a lot of members still hadn’t voted. However most late voters were backing Chris Huhne. The only slight caveat on this is the fact she is chair of Huhne’s campaign!
Last minute votes have to be received by the Saturday deadline.
PtP, I don’t know if this takes you to the politics page but that’s where you need to be to get US punter reaction
https://www.intrade.com/
68- Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that the people who were *acually there* said it was all bollocks.
“I certainly do and so did America, luckily”
Kerry is not Bush, so he would have been by default 10 times better. And anyway, remind us of Bush’s military record again?
66
Fill up your tanks now folks.
According to this press release a fuel blockade planned for Saturday.
I blame NuLabour for this shambles,oh wait a minute,nothing is ever their fault!
http://www.transaction-2007.com/
74 - Hear, Hear. Test might be sound on UK politics but his apologia for the revolting character assassination on Kerry by the Bush nasties (aka Karl Rove) borders on the pitiful (and, no, I didn’t think Bush stole either 2000 or 2004).
74
Bush’s war record was almost as impressive as John Wayne’s
76: Kerry’s version of what he did during his military service came into question because it was one of the things he based his campaign on and he was at best loose with the truth.
Huckabee certainly has the Big Mo and it’s difficult to see who can stop him right now. But, to rein in all you bulls, it’s worth pointing out that his organisation is weak across the country and he doesn’t have much cash on hand. It’ll be piling in now of course but he’ll be hampered by the squashed primary calendar, and I would point out that he has not yet been targeted by any other campaigns.
In summary, a worth favourite - not least because he could sweep the south - but there are more twists and turns to come I’m sure. One man who has, deservedly, been ignored recently is Fred Thompson. He’s still a long shot but he’s been getting his act together and he’d only have to regain a few supporters from the Huckabee bandwagon to open things up again.
On the Democrat side, I disagree with the notion that the winner in Iowa takes all. The more I look at it, the more I think that Edwards and Obama will be the top two, and that Biden the top 3 positions aren’t necessarily going to go to the big 3 (see Biden and maybe Richardson as credible challengers still).
But a result like that will just muddy the waters as Hillary could still sneak a win in New Hampshire even if Obama wins Iowa (and she almost certainly will if Edwards wins NH), while she’s way ahead in Nevada and South Carolina is volatile.
It could still go to Feb 5. The only way Iowa kills the race is if Clinton wins there, which is certainly possible even though I can’t see it.
Thanks for your two posts, Test.
Yes, I know Realclear very well and visit regularly. The quality of the articles is a bit uneven but some are gems and nobody who bets seriously on the US elections can afford to ignore them.
Haven’t quite got my head round Intrade yet, but I’m working on it.
Kerry’s problem with the Swift Boat issue was that he did not rebut it for some time and when he did he managed to open up other fronts against himself. Not least reminding people of his teestimony over Vietnam which looked very hostile to his erstwhile colleagues still in combat.
His press allies such as Dan Rather showed enormous bias and the fairly transparent attempts to hit back by implying that Bush had dodged his flight time and may have smoked dope while on active duty simply backfired when ‘evidentiary’ documents being touted on network news were demonstrated to be totally fraudulent.
Whether the Swift Boat story was a ‘true story’ or not it gave many voters doubts and concerns which Kerry seemed to work hard at reinforcing. The hunting party rather put the cap on it for that part of the electorate.
The good thing is that it was an election where bloggers on both sides set the agenda more than the main stream media, which until then regarded themselves as the oracle that could do no wrong. Rathergate punctured that.
Morning all…About American politics:
As I said before I don’t think Huckabee will win the nomination, but maybe he will surprise me. His candidacy is “beginning” now, and the press is already pressing him about the “old scandals”(and in my opinion his reaction is not good). Ant(79) is right to point out that his organization is weak across the USA.Which leaves me to a strange conclusion if he doesn’t win, I can’t see who will(yet). I think he can win in Iowa, but not in NH, and SC remains very open…
80. Intrade is simply the US version of Betfair, works the same way but with more markets and more money. So bid/ask on Huckabee to get Dem nomination in Iowa, Intrade says 70% likely.
82 good summary. I agree.
NH is not fertile for Huck, and McCain, Romney and Giuliani are locked in a pretty much life or death race. Huckabee could weather opposition research (after all, Giuliani managed for months before finally weakening) but he’s definitely an unknown quantity right now and the reasoning behind his surge in the polls is exactly what drove a similar move for Thompson in the summer (unattractive alternatives, a desire to find a winning candidate) and might well be reversed when he becomes known.
He’s definitely in with a shout - as Me recognises - but anything tighter than 4/1 or 5/1 doesn’t shout value at me in a race that won’t be clinched by Iowa (where all polls should be taken with a large dose of salt anyway)
82 Morning Me
Some of the posts on the GOP Nomination have reminded me of a famous remark by Marc Cotton, legendary punter and racing journalist. He had been reviewing a particularly dire contest and reached the following conclusion:
“None of these horses is good enough to win, but one has to. My pin fell on…”
83 Took me long enough to get my head round Betfair, Test. I gotta do it all over again with Intrade?!
85 hehe Hi PtP. A perfect summary!
84-Ant-Nice to see someone that agrees!
61. I’m sorry but IMHO almost the opposite. McCain is the most electable and the strongest candidate (especially in terms of a McCain-Lieberman ticket).
85-PtP-”“None of these horses is good enough to win, but one has to. My pin fell on…”
Yes, you just resumed my post in two lines!
The odds on Huhne winning the LibDem leadership are hugely attractive. I’m seriously thinking about increasing my exposure - although I still put the chance on him winning at a shade less than 50%.
Inside sources confirm there really has been a dramatic last-minute swing to Huhne - but I guess his chances of success depend on whether this is a surge of ballot papers or merely a trickle.
If Huhne wins, it’ll be a disaster for the LibDems. How could Calamity Clegg remain in the party - let alone serve under him?
Although it is in my interest to talk Huck up, as I’m currently selling him, I’m a Huck bear, for reasons explained earlier and by other posters.
I agree with Socrates that in the unlikely event that he gets the nomination, it will seriously strain the republican coalition of social conservatives and economic liberals (in the European sense) that Goldwater and Reagan built. Huck is much more social conservative than either of those two and the American electorate, and much more centrist/populist on economic issues.
4 - Mike is mistaken that Huck leads in Nevada. Romney and Giuliani did in the latest two polls. His lead in the latest Michigan poll is the smallest possible - 21 vs. 20 for Romney and 19 for Giuliani. Yesterday there was a reversal in the Rasmussen tracking poll - Giuliani again leads Huck by 3, after trailing for 4 straight days. We’ll see today if this was only noise, or whether the critical light of the press and other candidates is beginning to hurt Huck.
But I agree with Mike that Florida is essential. Giuliani needs to hold Florida. If Huck wins there too, he stands a good chance.
The Australian system is an absolute joke - to allow people to vote once they’ve started counting the results is a nonsense. There’s no reason why people cannot post their votes to their relevant high commission or embasssy and they be counted there and the totals transferred to the AEC in time for the close of poll.
94. I’m sure Labour will be keen to introduce such a system here once they find out…
Can I just say that the Swift Boat Vets for Truth campaign was a complete and utter distortion. The vast majority of those on the campaign had never served with Kerry and Republicans like McCain have come out to seriously denounce them as untrue. The guy won three purple hearts. Whereas on the other side, George Bush somehow managed to jump the list to get into the National Guard, and then didn’t meet attendance requirements but somehow didn’t get thrown out.
Not that it matters, as being a war hero doesn’t make you any better of a presidential candidate, but I can’t see how anyone but the most partisanly blind can still believe the Swift Boats crap.
I am catching up with the weekend papers and have just seen this little gem of wit and wisdom. Many of you will already have seen it but if not give it a read.
It seems It is Marvin not Mr Bean after all.
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Gordon BrownT
89: Matthew, that was my opinion on who would get the nomination not who was the best placed to win. At this stage I still think Giuliani will get the nomination but he needs to be very careful who he picks to run with.
A McCain-Lieberman ticket would have to attract enough people who voted Democrat last time to cover those GOP voters they’ll lose which may prove too much of a task.
re 3 people will use the Australian experience as a reason why PR is not user-friendly where the truth is that the Irish use STV which is much more complicated to count than the Australian AV and they have all their results out within 36 hours of the poll closing and the vast majority of them within 24 hours.
89 But what does Lieberman add to McCain in any way?
Socrates It doesn’t matter whether it is true or not, it is what people believe.
John Major tucking his shirt in his underpants, ‘crisis what crisis’, are two other examples where there may be an element of truth but the basic truth is much embroidered to create the final common perception.
100 - sorry 98 already summed up what I was getting in a much less obscure way.
98.
McCain has a very good shot. If Huckabee beats Romnney then New Hampshire turns into a three way contest between Giuliani, McCain and a wounded Romney. If a former Mayor of New York (or indeed a Senator from New York) cannot win New Hampshire then they are unelectable. Regarding a McCain-Lieberman ticket I think that you are underestimating the extent to which the Evangelical Right are willing to accept with social conservatives from other religions. Lieberman may be pro-choice and pro-gay marriage but the RR respect his stance on pornography/violence on TV and his views on religion in public life (views which are long-standing and genuine unlike those of a certain Republican). Lieberman would also help the GOP hold Florida and bring PA, MI, NH and CT into play
98. Giuliani will pick Huckabee, and vice-versa. There’s no other reason for their current non-aggression pact.
McCain-Guiliani brings NY into play.
105. No it doesn’t. NY will not go Republican. It’s simply not going to happen.
103. I don’t agree at all.
McCain is at best a long shot. He has had to abandon Iowa because he’s going to come 5th at best (and might not beat Ron Paul). His entire campaign hinges on winning New Hampshire, where he hammered Bush in 2000. But in 2000 the independents voted for him, while they’re expected to vote in the higher profile Democrat primary this time round.
So McCain is running a NH-or-bust strategy, but it’s still far from clear whether victory in NH would be enough to catapult him to the nomination. And as you note, he’s being challenged hard by Giuliani or Romney so can he win my enough to dominate the news? He’s between a rock and a hard place.
In summary, an attractive candidate to me as well as you, but he’s really an outsider right now surely?
Lieberman lost a lot of credibility from the Democrats over the way he behaved in the 2006 Senate race (leaving aside the self-interested behaviour in running for the Senate in 2000 because he did add a lot to Gore’s flagging campaign). I think McCain-Lieberman would turn off more Republicans than Lieberman would bring in Democrats. You underestimated the polarised partisanship of the Republican base.
Socrates @104 it would make perfect sense. But if the dirt on Huckabee gets too great then Brownback is back in the VP running.
92 Why would Huhne be a disaster? Huhne and Clegg’s policy outlooks are not so different - more a question of style. Vince Cable has said he would happily work under either.
4 Mike NJ etc
You make interesting points, although from a betting persepctive I am still leery of both Huckabee and Obama, current polls notwithstanding .
Re Huckabee in SC. I think this idea that Huckabee will win SC because it is the bible belt and he is a Baptist preacher is flawed. SC Republicans don’t vote for social conservative populists campaigns in primary historically, they coalesce around the establishment candidate, and it gets dirty if necessary. They voted for Dole over Pat Buchanan in 96, Bush Sr over Pat Robertson in 88, GWB over McCain in 00. It is the Lee Atwater firewall primary. Sounds like the anti Huckabee smear fliers have already started in Greenville, SC. There is no way that the national GOP are going to have Huckabee as the nominee - as you say he doesn’t even appeal to Northern Republicans . This leads me to conclude that by the time of the SC primary, there will be a smaller field and an “establishment” candidate.
Democrats
I would be laying Obama in this race. The stronger he gets, (especially if he wins Iowa) the more likely the Clinton campaign is to unload on him with both barrels. Unlike Obama, the Clintons have been running hard campaigns for 30 years and aren’t going to give up lightly. If Obama needs to be taken down they’ll do it - you can see Hillary already leaning negative on him, and the surrogates from NARAL etc taking shots at Obama. It can and will get worse and ugly. Think Primary Colors Question then is how much blood ends up on Hillary’s hands and does it give any opportunity for someone else to come through .
I realise this sounds like back the machine, not the new fresh guy, but look at the history of who wins National primaries - Kerry, Gore, Dole etc..
The GOP 2008 contest politically is irrelevant. Always was once Bush won again in 2004, an election victory which like 1992 UK was much better for GOP to lose. I have a few quid Guliani FWIW and still have no reason to think I will lose it.
Hillary will win the Democratic nomination, and then go on to completely dominate US politics for 8 years, and the Democrats for at least 12.
Rather than 2008, GOP should be looking to building a credible campaign for 2016 when the disastrous neo con experiment will be a distant memory.
Nick Palmer
I’ve just been on to your website and read your latest newsletter on party funding. The Communications Allowance is a sore spot in my patch but I think you are tackling it very honourably. I wish you were involved in your party’s review of funding. Unfortunately we’ll have to deal with Labour strategists who have no intention of playing a safe bat.
Or even a straight bat.
109 because I can’t see Clegg working with Huhne after the “Calamity Clegg” dirty politics. LibDem splits will be fatal to them.
43- herbert- well done for your fantastic and informed prediction on Mayeather. Peter from Putney has suggested that this should be post of the month.
I had Mayweather ahead by 4 points by round 10, although the judges had him ahead by 8 by then- which was a bit harsh.
114. A bit of wishful thinking there Test. You are probably far too young to remember the shooting of Rinka and the Norman Scott affair but if a party can survive having its leader go on trial at the Old Bailey then it can survive anything.
116 Good Grief, Smithson, does Matron know you’re out and about?!
Warm regards and best wishes for a speedy recuperation.
You’ll be pleased to know people behaved pretty well in your absence. Expect it will be back to normal soon though.
Atb
116. Great to see you are keeping an eye on us Mike.
Just noted one thing in the thread:
“(Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, Spain etc - even Brazil is quicker!) ”
Actually Brazil is one of the quickest in the world, most of the times, the presidential results is announced in the same day as the election, because Brazil uses “Voting machine”. The official result is announced few days later….
PtP. I’ve got a few days to go yet but I’m still alive and am following this on my mobile phone. I’m in the hospital where Barry is a consultant.
116 best wishes Mike
I remember the Norman Scott affair - mostly because of the playground jokes - Liberalism won’t die it’s too good an idea for that, but i think Test is right - the top figures within the party may have problems working together and this could cause lots of problems between the activists and the parliamentary party.
120-Nice to see you’re well!
No danger whatsoever of the two men falling out after the result is declared.
120.Great to see you posting Mike, I knew that you would not be able to stay away. Take care and a speedy recovery.
There weren’t any really political questions in the cantos city panel poll this time, but since there haven’t been any other opinion polls lately I thought I may as well post it.
http://w3.cantos.com/07/citypp_d-708-gx26y/video/36841_City_Panel_04.pdf
120 “I’m in the hospital where Barry is a consultant.”
Erm…I wouldn’t mention my name. Won’t help you.
Guido has an interesting story about the Labour party being found to have racially discriminated against an applicant.
“I’m in the hospital where Barry is a consultant.”
Good to see you back. Keep witnesses by your bed! (joke, Barry, joke)
“if a party can survive having its leader go on trial at the Old Bailey then it can survive anything”
Some comfort for Labour at last!
Mike,
All the very best & hope you are doing OK - get well soon.
114/121 I see no bigger problems in Huhne/Clegg working together than Davis/Cameron have .
108. “Lieberman lost a lot of credibility from the Democrats over the way he behaved in the 2006 Senate race (leaving aside the self-interested behaviour in running for the Senate in 2000 because he did add a lot to Gore’s flagging campaign). I think McCain-Lieberman would turn off more Republicans than Lieberman would bring in Democrats. You underestimated the polarised partisanship of the Republican base.”
- Lieberman won as an independant with 59% of the Republican vote. Also, the GOP need to reach out beyond their base, given that its now smaller than in 2004.
116. I hope that you are better.
If Brown and Blair “worked” together, why Clegg and Huhne won’t be able to do the same?
The Cameron and Davis contest was very amiable, something which has continued ever since. Huhne and Clegg have ripped chunks out of each other on occasion.
It’s very strange, isn’t it, that only the Tory diehards see trouble and strife in the ranks of the Liberal Democrats. What does Tory HQ feed them with?
Thanks for the kind comments. What’s really pleasing is all this good news about Huckabee. There’s something very satisfying about getting on an outsider very early on and then seeing your choice prosper.