How a 1% Labour lead in the economy becomes a 4% deficit

Much of yesterday’s coverage of the December Populus poll in the Times focuses on the fact that Brown-Balls’ party still has a lead on the economy even if only of just one per cent

Yet were we getting a proper picture in the papers because, as has been noted here before, findings like this include the views of those who have little or no intention of voting – and who cares what they think?

So while I was waiting to be discharged from hospital yesterday I tried to relieve the boredom by working out a way producing figures on the views of actual voters from the data that is made available from the polling organisations. I think I have found a partial answer and applying it to the economy question from the Populus poll a very different outcome emerges.

For if you just restrict the calculation to those who told the pollster that they voted in 2005 for one of the three main parties you find that Labour, rather than having a one point lead, actually have a four per cent deficit on this question.

This is a slightly rough and ready answer because it does not include the view of those who said they had voted for parties other than the main three at the last election – but my guess is that it will make little difference to the outcome.

Thank you Paul Maggs. Once again thank you to Paul (Double Carpet) for standing in over the past few days. You did a great job.

Mike Smithson