Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition
December 14th, 2007-
The competition that moved the markets in 2006
So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week - but how good are you at predicting the outcome?
Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places.
Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for your predicted winning candidate. If you have predicted the wrong winner, a further ten penalty points will be added to your score. The competition winner will be the player with the lowest score.
There is no tie-breaker, so in the event of a tie, the player whose entry arrived earlier will be deemed the winner. Note that the results will be calculated to more than two decimal places if necessary in order to split players. As usual, the “Smithson Doctrine” will apply and the Competition Organiser’s decision will be final in the event of any dispute.
Entries close Saturday at 3pm.
There are two ways to enter:
1. Make your prediction in the thread below
2. If you wish to cast a “secret ballot”, email your entry to pbpredcomp@yahoo.co.uk
Thanks for entering and good luck with your predictions.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
MessageSpace Advertising
Huhne 53.72%
NicK Clegg: 68.23
Please, for the future of British liberalism, let it be so.
I’m awful at this(so, please, be nice, and put some bad predictions here!)
Clegg- 53.83
Huhne 52.20%
3. Oh all right then: Menzies Kennedy 203.99%
Clegg-58,25%
Clegg with 54.98%
Clegg 52.4
(God save our party if Huhne wins!)
Why not?
Chris Huhne - 51.02%
Clegg - 62.00%
Should be Vince Cable 65% but as write ins not allowed
Clegg 53%
Jeremy Thorpe landslide.
Return to your constituencies and prepare to be ignored.
Clegg 55.55 %
Huhne 50.45%
Clegg 57.55%
Huhne 50.45%
Huhne 50.45%
Clegg 58.3
Clegg 51.09
(I’m assuming the 76% of the total votes cast who did a write-in for Vince Cable will be “invalid”? So 51.09 of the rest…..)
Clegg will win with 53.2%
Clegg 55.25
Clegg 53.17%
Clegg 53.17%
Chris Huhne with 52.45%
Nick Clegg 51.2%
Clegg 54.77%
Clegg- 54.9%
Clegg 53.58%
Clegg 56.27%
Huhne 53.5%
rogerh
Clegg 50.35
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Clegg 55.5%
Clegg: 52.18%
(Interesting how close to each other we mostly are with these predictions).
10. Stuart comments on politics outside Scotland - shock!
Clegg 54.23
Clegg 55.25. Huhne 44.70 Spoiled papers 15. Vote 80%.
Huhne 53.85
Clegg 59.72%
Clegg 56.2%
Huhne 54.26
Huhne 51.35%
Much as I think it should be otherwise, I’m going Clegg 58.25%
Huhne 50.1%
Clegg 52.11%
Clegg 53.16%
Clegg 58.00
Huhne 52%
Clegg 57.57
Clegg 60.12
Clegg 52.3
Clegg 53.9
Clegg 53.5 - and they will live to regret it
Clegg 51.55
Huhne, 51.43%
Clegg 54.84
Huhne - 50.83
Clegg: 63%
Clegg 54.72%
Clegg 57.42%
Clegg 53.91
Lib Dem MP Norman Baker, who must be near the top of most MP’s most popular/hated list, thanks to his evangelical parliamentary sleazebusting, has been critisised by the Parliamentary Standards Committee for breaching rules on the use of parliamentary allowances.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmstnprv/182/18202.htm
The Guardian covers it here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2227242,00.html
Baker has been exposed for carrying party-political material in what should be non-political constituency newsletters, which are funded by the taxpayer
As an MP who has made a career out of trying to ruin other members reputations, often for minor misdemeanours, it will be interesting to see if he asks to be given an easy ride, and benefit of the doubt
Clegg: 50.69
I think Clegg will just scrape it, sadly.
Clegg 53.49%
Clegg - 52.75%
Huhne - 50.12%
Clegg 50.00% Huhne 50.00% — Dead heat tie.
Cable continues as acting leader. Re-ballot deferred until 2010.
Huhne - 50.01%
Clegg 50.05%
Clegg 51.92
I won last time, but this looks like a turkey shoot
Huhne 50.6%
Huhne - 52.8 per cent
Huhne 50.85%
Clegg - 53.45%
Huhne - 50.31%
Clegg: 58.14%
Huhne 50.18%
Clegg 55.67%
Clegg 56.27%
Huhne 50.25%
Clegg 54.76%
Clegg, 56.85%
Clegg 56.14%
Clegg 55.68%
Clegg 51.27%
Huhne 50.0255%
Clegg 54.07
Clegg 59.00%
Huhne 50.12%
over on Lib Dem voice there version of this cometition has more people saying clegg to win and by larger margins. Its be interesting to see which competition is generally closer to the actual result. Party Actvists or the Betting community.
Despite having voted for Huhne i think Clegg will win by a bit. Its appallingly cliched but all the actvists i know are slipting 60 40 for Huhne but Armchair members very comfortably for Clegg. There are more members in the latter catergory rather than the former ergo…
Huhne 54.35%
89 - the libdem voice entries looked very similar to the entries here I thought.
Hope not, but Clegg - 53.11%
Clegg 56.00
Huhne 53.71%
Clegg 61.1%
Clegg 52.71%
Clegg 53.33%
clegg 50.49%
I voted for Huhne (and even put a story out to the local press and put it on my website!) but, sadly, despite my best efforts, I think the result will be
Clegg 54.66
Huhne 45.34
I’ve met too many Cleggites in the South East and this is where Huhne should be strongest
Clegg 55.9
Clegg 54.93
Huhne 56.12
Clegg 54.12
Clegg 54.01%
Clegg 53.74%
Clegg 57.76%
I make that Huhne 28 Clegg 71 so far (up to 106.)
1 Huhne more than 55%
27 Huhne 50 to 55%
43 Clegg 50 to 55%
23 Clegg 55 to 60%
5 Clegg more than 60%
Clegg 55.80 %
Clegg 57.88%
Nick Clegg 60.37%
Clegg 50.08%
Clegg 55.21%
Clegg 57.34%
Clegg 61.5%
Huhne 53.76%
nick clegg 56%
Clegg 53.22%
CLEGG 58.76%
BRIAN
Clegg- 52.25%
Clegg 57.19%
norman clegg 61.26
Huhne 52.17%
Clegg 53.46
Bit of a commotion over on [MODERATED]
Apparently Huhne got bent out of shape and personally contacted the Chris Paul blogsite and got Chris to remove a link to a website. Anyone know anymore about this?
It’s too late to affect the voting but I’m intrigued.
Clegg 70.00%
Clegg 54.27%
re 124. Yes - somebody has been trying to post the same links here - alas it did not get through the spam trap.
Clegg 53.65%
Rather it was Huhne but realistically I have to say Clegg 55.98%
re: 127 - well I’m all in favour of spam traps but how are we to essay the data than informs our speculation if we can’t see the relevant info?!!! Is there a way of finding out and conveying the info without offending this fine website or breaking its rules?
Clegg 56.83%
Clegg 56.38%
Clegg 56.75
Clegg 51.98%
Clegg 58.27%
Clegg 53.12%
Huhne 53.12%
Clegg 55.09%
Huhne 50.2%
Clegg 56.55%
Huhne 56.2%
Clegg 54.25%