Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
December 14th, 2007
Was Gordon Brown Right to Back Out?
It’s hard to imagine that two months ago, Labour were leading the Conservatives by 10-13% in opinion polls, on the back of a highly successful party conference, and momentum for an early election appeared unstoppable. Yet, instead of calling an election at, or straight after, his party conference, Gordon Brown waited for the Conservative Party to have their conference, enabling them to regain the initiative.
Since then of course, very little has gone right for Gordon Brown, and it is now the Conservative Party that enjoys a double digit lead. Did he therefore, miss a golden opportunity to finish off David Cameron’s leadership, by leading Labour to a sweeping victory?
It may be cold comfort to supporters of the Labour Party, but I believe he made the right decision, from his party’s point of view, in awaiting the public response to the Conservative conference. Had he called an election just before the Conservatives met, news of the first days of the campaign would have been dominated by coverage of the Conservatives, and in particular, George Osborne’s initiative on inheritance tax.
Almost certainly, this would have boosted the Conservative Party’s poll rating at the start of the campaign. Additionally, opinion polls throughout September had been extremely volatile, with the Conservatives advancing to level-pegging with Labour at the start of the month, before falling back at the end of the month. To me, that suggests that Labour’s big lead was very fragile, and liable to fall away very rapidly once the Conservative Party came back into the news.
The counter-argument is obviously that Labour might very well win an overall majority, even with a very small lead over the Conservatives, in terms of vote share, and could be sure of emerging as the largest single party, even if their vote share was slightly less than that of the Conservatives. Now, there is every risk that Labour will lose the next election. That is quite true, but it also misses the point that winning, with a significantly reduced majority (the likeliest outcome in my view) would have placed Labour in a terrible position, during the next Parliament. The record of John Major’s administration suggests that winning narrowly, after previously winning well, is worse than losing.
Gordon Brown’s real mistake, clearly, was allowing election speculation to get out of hand. He might just as well have telephoned David Cameron, and told him he should get ready for an election campaign. Any decision to call an election should have been taken swiftly, with a view to catching the Conservatives off their guard.
There were several local by-elections last night. One by-election is being held today, in Chelmsford, and one is being counted today, Harrow, Cannons. In addition, a by-election was held in Moyle District Council, in Northern Ireland, on Wednesday, but, so far, I have been unable to discover the figures, although Sinn Fein held the seat on the first count. Usually, I would wait before posting, but I’m off to the office Christmas lunch.
Brighton & Hove City: Regency: Green 749, Conservative 397, Labour 376. Green hold. This was a good result for the Green Party, who usually perform badly in local by-elections. However, their support is quite firm in their areas of strength, where the population is secular, left wing, urban, professional, and university-educated.
London Borough of Chiswick, Riverside. Conservative 1207, Labour 414 , Lib Dem 250 Green 103. Conservative hold. This was a strong performance from the Conservatives, but the swing is exaggerated by the fact that each of the Liberal Democrats and Greens only fielded one candidate in 2006.
Test Valley District, Romsey Curpenham Lib Dem 793, Conservative 460, UKIP 73. Lib Dem hold. There was a reasonable swing to the Liberal Democrats, compared to May, which will encourage them in a key marginal seat.
London Borough of Southwark, Riverside: Lib Dem 1114, Labour 691, Conservative 260, Green 122, UKIP 49. A solid win for the Liberal Democrats in a safe ward.
Reigate & Banstead District, Earlswood and Whitebushes
Conservative 421, LibDem 380, Labour 152, UKIP 113, Green 54. Conservative hold, but with a strong swing to the Liberal Democrats.
Merthyr Welsh Borough, Treharris Independent 405, LibDem 328, Labour 317 Independent 81. Independent hold, but with a good Liberal Democrat performance, after leaving the seat uncontested last time.
Surrey Heath District, Bagshot. According to Mark Senior, the figures are Lib. Dem 720 Conservative 590. Liberal Democrat hold.
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Yet another interesting analysis Sean. I look forward to to your regular Friday slot.
Weird picture of Brown.
He’s either gibing the invisible man a kiss, or saying “Who’s nicked my roll of wool”
1. gibing = giving
Actually I don’t think that Brown was seriously expecting or intending to hold a general election in November anyway. He may have thought that it was somehow advantageous to let people carry on speculating that there would be one, and it may have been a misjudgement for him not to kill the speculation earlier. To me, an early GE (and especially in November, at the end of the register’s timetable) in mid-term just didn’t make sense in the first place, and I never thought it would happen.
I think the mistake that Gordon Brown made was to allow the hype and expectation of some of his supporters and of course, the media, to back him into a corner where he was being forced to go for the Election. He allowed it because he thought that it would be a slam-dunk victory for Labour.
Unfortunately (for him), it blew up in his face. He also compounded the situation by telling silly lies about the polls having nothing to do with it and only making his announcement that it was all off to Andrew Marr.
The reason that Mr. Brown put forward about “setting out his vision” had to be followed very swiftly by deeds and it has not been. We are all still waiting!
By getting the wrong side of the media and the spectacular series of cock ups that followed, it is for Gordon Brown to retrieve the agenda. Something that he is showing no sign of doing at present. Will he? The Lisbon signing debacale does not auger well!
“Gordon Brown’s real mistake, clearly, was allowing election speculation to get out of hand.”
Of course.
He was right to call it off when he did, but he should never have got in the wretched mess in the first place.
And he certainly should not have lied about the reason for the u-turn. I don’t see how he comes back from that.
Good stuff as ever Sean. Can I suggest a slot about the East Midlands at some point. We were missed out when Doughty Street did their regional analysis, and the council results this year show it to be an interesting battleground.
Is part of the result for Brighton & Hove missing? I think there was a Lib Dem candidate as well.
Thanks Sean, Brighton starts to look a place where a Green MP is feasible. Lib Dems seem to be giving up there.
Chiswick another solid gain by the successful Conservatives in the area. The ides look poor for Labour and Lib Dems.
Romsey. What happened? Perhaps Gidley is not as doomed as it appeared?
Another interesting piece by Sean.
I tend to think that ‘the election’ started off as a tactic, then became a possibility, but was left to fester until it all fell apart.
OT. Hills and PaddyPower’s prices for Obama look quite good value now, as they haven’t fully priced in Hillary’s recent drift in the polls as much other markets.
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/51361-234-3.html
6 Woody
Why is the East Midlands so poor for the LibDems at the Parliamentary level ? Other than Chesterfield (and the Leicester seat briefly) they don’t have any other MPs in the entire region, and I can’t think of any target seats either. Are they unfortunate with the boundaries or is it something else ?
8 - I still think that at the next election Brighton Pavilion would be a good place for the Libs to make a noise about tactictly withdrawing a candidate, with an announcement along the lines of; “Whilst we do not agree with large portions of the Green platform, we do agree with a more equitable electoral system. Clearly Brighton Pavilion is the only seat that the Green Party have a chance of winning at this election, and so we will not be standing a candidate. This should not be seen as an endorsement of the Green candidate in this, or any seat, but simply as a small attempt by ourselves to bring a small amount of electoral equitability into a system that is currently patently unfair”
What would be the downsides of such a move? It would highlight electoral unfairness without having to be technical about the intricacies of STV, it would encourage Green voters in other seats to think more favourably of the Libs and ‘lend votes’ in tight marginals.
8. Who knows with local Lib Dems. Here’s a good story about them. I’m helping in a local by election at the moment. It’s a 3 seat ward where the Tories hold 2 seats and the sole Labour member has died. May voteshare was about 700 for us 690 for Labour and 220 for the Lib Dems. Council is 27 Tories 5 Labour 3 Lib Dems.
Lib Dems send out a barchart leaflet saying it’s a 2 horse race between them and the Labour party. You couldn’t make it up.
12 - Oops, that was me… (I really wouldn’t be good at having an alter ego on this site clearly!)
11. They are making inroads in Derby as well but much of the East Midlands is semi rural with big towns which may not suit them. Perhaps Icarus maybe able to shed some light on the reasons as well.
13 - Woody
Standard tactics. It doesn’t matter whether or not there was a grain of truth in it or not!!
All well with you?
13 - Clearly it’s a 2 horse race to come second behind the Tory - seems perfectly reasonable
Thanks for the article Sean, I agree with your comments on the election.
I surprise election is only a surprise if the other side do not know about it!
16. Yes thank you David. Busy as ever. I’ll send you an e-mail to catch up later.
15 - Given the success of UKIP / Veritas in the East Midlands, I do get the impression that it’s (very large generalisation for which I apologise in advance) one of the most Euro-sceptic and socially conservative regions of the country - I suspect that both of these traits don’t mix with voting Lib Dem. Why this is the case, I really don’t know?
12. I have usually thought that an electoral pact of that sort (however much it is agreed or not wanted by the two parties involved) would tend to backfire; it would annoy Lib Dems upporters who don’t want to be told to vote for someone else, and it would damage the Green Party’s chances of looking distinctive and different. half of the would-be tactical voters would think “What are you up to?”. It would be better for the Lib Dems to have a paper candidate with no campaigning.
21 - In general I would agree, but if you can list clear and specific reasons, and emphasis that it’s a one-off I would have thought it would work - I don’t think the Libs have lost anything by not standing against the good doctor in Wyre Forest, or prior to that by failing to stand against Bell in Tatton.
21 The Lib Dems have had agreements with Labour for each of the last 3 GE’s.
Re: the East Midlands - keep an eye on Northampton North.
Off Topic, sign of the HIPS effect on Housing Market. Freebie newspaper yesterday was only 1/3rd of the normal size.
OT. PtP’s 20/1 tip for Huckabee to take Florida a while back might just pay-off!
Latest Rasmussen GOP Florida Primary
Mike Huckabee 27% (9%)
Mitt Romney 23% (19%)
Rudy Giuliani 19% (27%)
Fred Thompson 9% (16%)
John McCain 6% (10%)
Ron Paul 4% (5%)
Some other candidate 2% (2%)
22. In both cases there, there were obviously locally specfic factors in play. To stand down in a seat to a candidate from a nationally based party would be a different matter and could be portrayed far more readily as an electoral pact, especially in Tory / Lib Dem marginals where leaflets along the lines of ‘Lib Dems back [insert wacky part of Green manifesto]‘ could easily be won. Letting one Green MP in would also set a real precedent - it would encourage Green potential voters across the country: if they can win in Brighton, they could (eventually) win here. Not difficult to see which party the major loser would be from that logic.
Re East Midlands , LibDems have a good chance in Harborough , many LibDems think it could have been gained in 2005 if effort had been put in here instead of defending the Leicester byelection gain .
But the media wouldn’t have been able to cover Osborne’s proposals without giving as mucg coverage to Labour’s. The decision would have completely overshadowed the Tory conference if it had even gone on at all.
25- Ahhh HIPS, yet another example of Labour thinking with all the red tape in this country, what we need is more of it!
13 A bit like all the hype the Conservatives put out in yesterday’s Southwark Riverside contest saying it was a 2 horse race with them challenging the LibDems . You couldn’t make it up as you say . Interestingly in Shepway South last week the LibDems moved from a poor 3rd to a close 3rd in a Lab/Con hyper marginal so it can be done .
31 - Do you have a copy of the Tory literature?
29 Chris A. No the BBC confirmed at the time that they would cover the Tory conference in full b/c it would balance coverage already given to Lib Dem and Lab - election eriod or no. That was their lawyers’ advice.
To be clear - covered it like the other conferences, ie w/out balance, the reason being it in itself was balance to the two prior conferences.
31 - Mark
We could (and probably will!) argue about various by election results until the cows come home. It can be done, as you say, by all parties at one time or another.
After the Christmas festivities are over, eyes will turn to the Local elections in May, which will give us a much better flavour of LOCAL Government. It will also give the LDs a chance to bed in their new man and see whether he is an improvement on Vincent Cable, who at PMQs anyway, has been a national treasure!!
31. I’d be shocked if we sent out a leaflet like that. Must be a crazy local party if we did.
25 - I think there are one or two other factors affecting the level of property advertising currently, and at this time of year in general.
24 yes, Michael Ellis will take that seat.
In Hackney there are 44 Labour councillors. In the Springfield ward the Liberak Democrats have circulated a leaflet stating that Labour are nowhere and only the Lib Dems can beat the Conservatives. It actually says Labour councillors 0.
25. HIPS are clearly lame attempt by Brown to shore-up the faltering housing market by squeezing supply
36 To be fair the Conservatives in 2006 had a reasonable 3rd place in Riverside ward and with the gentrification of parts of the ward they should have been able to do rather better than losing half their vote .
Note to Meurig before I go down to the pub for a few games of bar billiards and one or two drinks . It is not just 1 small subsample that shows a collapse in Plaid support since May , every Mori monitor poll from August onwards has had Plaid at below 10% in their Welsh subsamples .
37. Maybe, but I can see HIPs causing an awful lot of resentment. Everyone in the property game think they’re pointless, homeowners resent them because it’s eating into their deposit for their next house, and first time buyers will find no use for them as they have to get their own surveys done anyway. Massive vote loser.
Anatole, you’ve made some very good arguments and I’m afraid I’m pretty tired (as well as busy!) so I’m not presently up to the high level of argument clearly required! I’ll have a good think over the weekend and try to finish this debate in a few days.
JohnLoony, if the claims of millions of dead under Stalin are the result of a biased “bourgeois” mindset, how come numerous socialists have accepted and decried the crimes of the man and disassociated the USSR from their ideology? And surely, if what you say is true, at least one non-socialist would have been capable of overcoming his bias and saying “I disagree with socialism, but Joseph didn’t do them things”?
Election Results: Thursday 13th December 2007.
Brighton and Hove UA, Regency
Green 749 (41.6; +8.7), Con 397 (22.1; +2.1), Lab 376 (20.9; -0.6), LD Simon Doyle 148 (8.2; -9.1), Ind 130 (7.2; -1.1).
Majority 352. Turnout 23.0%. Green hold. Last fought 2007.
Harrow LBC, Canons
Con 1208 (56.7; -11.1), Lab 389 (18.3; -0.1), LD Anne Diamond 296 (13.9; +0.1), Ind 182 (8.5; +8.5), BNP 56 (2.6; +2.6).
Majority 819. Turnout 24.0%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Hounslow LBC, Chiswick Riverside
Con 1207 (61.1; +16.1), Lab 414 (21.0; +3.2), LD Phyllis Ballentyne 250 (12.7; -7.1), Green 103 (5.2; -12.2).
Majority 793. Turnout 24.6%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Treharris
Ind 405 (35.8; -9.9), LD John Pappas 328 (29.0; +29.0), Lab 317 (28.0; -5.1), Ind 81 (7.2; +7.2), [People before Politics (0.0; -21.2)].
Majority 77. Turnout 24.0%. Ind hold. Last fought 2004.
Reigate and Banstead DC, Earlswood and Whitebushes
Con 421 (37.6; -3.9), LD Steve Oddy 380 (33.9; +4.9), Lab 152 (13.6; -1.9), UKIP 113 (10.1; +1.8), Green 54 (4.8; -0.9).
Majority 41. Turnout not known. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Southwark LBC, Riverside
LD Anood Al-Samerai 1114 (49.8; +8.6), Lab 691 (30.9; +6.0), Con 260 (11.6; -7.0), Green 122 (5.5; -9.7), UKIP 49 (2.2; +2.2).
Majority 423. Turnout not known. LD hold. Last fought 2006.
Surrey Heath BC, Bagshot
LD Gret Woodason 720 (55.0; +5.2), Con 590 (45.0; -5.2).
Majority 130. Turnout 31.2%. LD hold. Last fought 2007.
Test Valley DC, Cupernam
LD Karen Dunleavey 793 (59.8; +4.1), Con 460 (34.7; -9.6), UKIP 73 (5.5; +5.5).
Majority 333. Turnout 33.5%. LD hold. Last fought 2007.
Windlesham PC, Bagshot
LD Ruth Hutchinson 762 (58.2), Con 548 (41.8).
Majority 214. Turnout 31.2%. LD hold.
*
Wychavon DC, Lovett and North Claines
Con 837 (71.0; +8.8), LD 342 (29.0; +2.6), [Lab (0.0; -11.4)].
Majority 495. Turnout 27.9%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.
Further result from 6-12-07 from Bob Somper
Chobham Parish Council
Con 357, Ind 224, No description 53.
Thanks for the article Sean.
O/T
“Who runs No10?”
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/12/who-runs-no10.html
Thanks for the kind words.
From the previous thread, John Loony, to accept your viewpoint about Stalin requires me to believe that (a) very large numbers of people imagined their own suffering, and that of their friends and relatives and (b) an implausibly high proportion of the Soviet population in general (and Communist Party members in particular) were working for foreign intelligence service (c) subsequent Soviet and Russian governments and academics have, for some strange reason, entered into a vast conspiracy to blacken the man’s reputation.
The principle of Occam’s razor suggests this is unlikely.
44 Aw, ColinW is back
46 - I always thought that Nikita Kruschev was an agent of Western fascist Imperialism. Bet the CIA wrote the ’secret speech’.
48 I fear that’s probably what he believes.
I mean relying on “Lies About the Soviet Union” as a basis for one’s argument in favour of Stalin is like relying on “Did Six Million Really Die?” as a basis for arguing there weren’t any gas chambers at Auschwitz.
49 - To be fair, it is now widely recognised that over 20% of the delegates to the 20th Party Congress in 1956 were actually double agents - their real identities being Branch Officers of Conservative Associations throughout Shropshire, Hampshire, Surrey and East Sussex.
46. It would also require that the underlying “bourgeois” bias was so strong among academics that not one non-communist academic was capable of putting aside his bias on this issue (even when they excused Stalin from blame in some places), and several communist academics accepted it against their own viewpoint. RJ Rommel for example, charged Stalin with many millions of deaths, while at the same time arguing he could not be blamed for the Ukrainian genocide.
11 et al
These things are - in general - historic. Liberals have broadly speaking been weak iacross the Midlands over the last 50 years. When you are weak somewhere, there is not the same incentive (or organisation / manpower) to target, and gain more. But as some have said here, there are enough seed corn constituencies in the EM now to make a breakthrough over the next 10 years. Chesterfield has been building up ever since Tony Rogers moved from the Westcountry, and was succeeded by his agent Paul Holmes who was actually elected. Nick Clegg’s victory as an MEP there clearly helped, and also Robert Newton Dunn’s defection from the Tories some years ago. May I also praise especially Lucy Care’s performance in one of the Derby seats, which helped move Derby a long way forward. Leicestershire County Council has been hung over many years (not sure of current position) with a strong Lib Dem presence, and at least Oadby and Wigston DC was LD controlled for a few years. Nottingham city and county has been an area of especial weakness, for some reason.
49: I prefer The Court of the Red Tsar by Simon Sebag Montefiore, and Richard Evans’ Lying about Hitler.
Lib Dems and Greens in Brighton don’t get on - the increase in Green vote was at the expense of the Lib Dems in yesterday’s election, while Tories & Lab remained steady.
Green support is restricted to the city centre and they do not challenge the Tories in the suburbs or estates, so Brighton Pavilion should still be seen as a Lab/Tory marginal.
20 Lennon - can I also add that I think your theory about “socially conservative and Eurosceptic” has little to do with it. If so the southwest and esp Cornwall, which exhibit these traits in abundance (!) would have little LD support. As you know, the Southwest is the country’s strongest Lib Dems’ strongest region, and Cornwall, far from electing no MPs, actually elected 5 out of 5 in 2005 the only countywide clean sweep incounties with more than one MP AFAIK.
52 Yes, I was intrigued to read that John Hemming’s win in Birmingham Yardley was the first Liberal win in a general election in Birmingham since 1886.
50 Or, as Ave It 07 would say, “Tories win Leningrad South East!”
57 - Rather proves JohnLoony’s point, doesn’t it?
Very pleased to see Oadby,my birth place, get a mention on pbc. Undoubtedly natural Tory area, but the Lib Dems work very hard there. My mother, a hanging and flogging, died-in-the-wool Tory who thought Cameron was a dangerous lefty, voted Lib Dem at council level because they were the only ones who bothered to canvass her. Things like that matter to old people and others who appreciate good manners and neighbourliness.
52 - Tim
Yes, Lucy Care did well in Derby. I know, I was her Conservative opponent. She has now moved into Derby North, which has very different demographics to the old Derby South seat. With the substantial Asisn population in Derby South, Iraq was a very significant factor in 2005. How this plays out in Derby North in 2009 / 2010 with a national Conservative revival remains to be seen!
Just returning to the site after a while away and have noticed quite a few of the original characters are no longer posting.
What happened to Jack W, Andrea and Sean T?
Glad to see David Herdson still posting - excellent as ever.
It wasn’t election ’speculation’ it was election planning, and preparation. Labour spent a lot of money gearing up for an election, before negative polling results made them change their plans.
60 - Sorry, Asian, of course!
Sean 56 Of course, Wally Lawler also won Ladywood in a byelection (?1972?) which created a lot of headlines then, but didn’t last long!
A conversation I had with a senior Lib Dem Regional Officer while campaigning at the Hodge Hill byelection 3 years ago (where LDs ran Labour close) indicated that the morale boost of a big byelection to an area not used to Lib Dem hard campaigning and seeing victory in sight was the real positive factor. That may even have driven Birmingham Lib Dems on to final victory in John Hemming’s seat.
56. I think I read somewhere that when Lloyd George spoke at a meeting in Birmingham he was ‘bombarded with bricks wrapped in barbed wire’. It was to do with his Anti-war (i.e. Boer) stance.
Brown needs a good adviser. I’m serious, he can’t even spin properly!!!!
“I agreed on November 5th” to go to the Commons and speak to the Liaison Committee on Thursday, the Prime Minister said. By my reckoning, that’s more than a fortnight after the Portuguese government agreed with other EU governments that the new Reform Treaty would be signed on December 13.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/dec07/brownsdetails.htm
58. How does that prove the point that tens of millions weren’t murdered by the Soviet regime?
61 Andrea and Seant are definitely still posting (Andrea not as frequently as before). Jack W has withdrawn “on along term basis” - I am sure Mike Smithson and others will add to this if I have given an incomplete or inaccurate reply!
Funny that Brighton Pavillion/Regency is so Green. It’s a pretty posh area, it’s mostly expensive hotels, shops and big houses in the residential areas.
I would expect solid Conservatism there.
69: Like Islington, and parts of Oxford the champagne and the socialism mix happily.
8 - I still think that at the next election Brighton Pavilion would be a good place for the Libs to make a noise about tactictly withdrawing a candidate, with an announcement along the lines of; “Whilst we do not agree with large portions of the Green platform, we do agree with a more equitable electoral system. Clearly Brighton Pavilion is the only seat that the Green Party have a chance of winning at this election, and so we will not be standing a candidate. This should not be seen as an endorsement of the Green candidate in this, or any seat, but simply as a small attempt by ourselves to bring a small amount of electoral equitability into a system that is currently patently unfair”
I got the impression the Lib Dems were very unpopular in Brighton. Some scandal or something a few years back when they governed. I think they only have two councillors.
55 Tim13 Cornwall, far from electing no MPs, actually elected 5 out of 5 in 2005 the only countywide clean sweep incounties with more than one MP AFAIK.
County Durham elected all Labour MPs, and Surrey elected all Tories.
Cleveland and Tyneside also elected all Labour MPs if you consider the post 1974 boundaries. Mid and West Glamorgan was probably all Labour as well.
71 The LibDems have never governed in Brighton and have never been either particularly popular or unpopular . I stood for them several times in the 70’s and early 80’s . At the most we had I think 7 councillors , and it was first ward reorganisation , secondly allowing the SDP to contest both parliamentary seats in 1983 , and later the growth of the Greens that caused them to slip back to 2 councillors . There is no chance that they will not put up a candidate to let the Greens have a free run .
” Surrey Heath BC, Bagshot
LD hold = LD Gret Woodason 720 (55.0; +5.2), Con 590 (45.0; -5.2)”
There’s something wrong with these numbers or it can’t be an LD hold…
73, “The LibDems have never governed in Brighton and have never been either particularly popular or unpopular.”
Must have read it in a Labour leaflet then!
74. I’m guessing that the +/- figures relate to the last time the seat was fought, which was not the election at which the departing councillor was elected? For example, if the council elects by thirds.
Re: the BNP
Looks like there won’t be a split in the end. The ‘rebellion’ was apparently caused by dislike of this guy Mark Collett (the subject of a C4 documentary, “Young, Nazi and Proud”) who’d kept getting promoted despite gaffe after gaffe. Looked like the leadership was determined to protect him, even publishing headline news articles about his brilliant work, but he’s been demoted now.
72 Yes, sorry Paul - I meant the only Lib Dem clean sweep. I am only too aware of Surrey, Co Durham etc!
74 - swingvoter, I believe that the Cons and Lib Dems won one seat each in May in the ward. The overall Conservative vote was slightly higher.
24 - agreed. Northampton North is easily the Lib Dems best prospect in the region. I think they gained over 50% of the vote comoared to 20% each for both Lab and Cons in May and have Cllrs in every ward bar one where they are a close second.
re 56 but the Liberals won Lichfield in 1918 and 1922, and looking at the 1918 redistribution map it must have included large parts of what are now Perry Barr and Sutton constituencies, and also small parts of Erdington.
“Phew! Data disaster report won’t hurt Brown”
“Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is ready to deliver a Commons statement on Monday after receiving the interim findings from PricewaterhouseCooper’s chairman Kieran Poynter. The word around Downing Street is that Poynter has found a damaging amount of incompetence among the civil servants at HM Revenue and Customs, but it cannot be laid at Brown’s door.”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?storyID=9988
re 81 you really didn’t think anything other than the nation’s stocks of whitewash were going to be depleted again did you?
Trafalgar [61] welcome back. Perhaps SeanT has disappeared up his own referendum at the thought of Gordon signing late. Someone reported seeing Jack W the other day (in the flesh unfortunately not on here).
Mike has been in hospital. There are too many Conservatives gloating, despite the failures of Cameron to hold Gordon to account. And the Lib Dem posters are the only ones talking sense. So much as usual!
74.
There is an error in the votes reported in May 2007. They appear to be identical to the by election according to a report on CCA
74/84 The May votes were Con 779/754/657 LibDem 773/765/741
82-Well, I know this government only acts in good faith, so it was pretty obvious what would/will happen in the end!!!!
81. Who merged Revenue and Customs?
87 Gordon Brown
87-The Chancellor at that time, what was his name?
87 Thoroughly stupid idea, Woody. The two Departments have wholly different traditions.
I expect it saved a few bob - couple of cleaners probably got the sack. It also put the rather more abrasive Customs and Excise boys in charge over their rather more genteel Revenue cousins. I can see that would appeal to Gordon. He overlooked however the simple question of efficiency and sound practice.
The disks fiasco is, I am sure, not wholly unrelated.
90. Doubling the size of the tax handbook and creating the administrative nightmare that is tax credits is enough. Then whacking another massive department onto it has bought the chaos that has allowed the practise of sending discs in the post. That is the result of Gordon Brown’s stewardship and he can’t get away from it.
81: Did anyone really think that when Brown chose the person to ‘investigate’ the loss of the disks he’d be found at fault?
swingvoter - what is your source for the non-split - have they actually made it uo? There’s still an awful lot of bad blood to mop up - Cllr Graham alleges that two named BNP officials and three members of “Birmingham security” (BNP-talk for the sort of bouncers they have at meetings) entered her house illegally and have removed her laptop, authorised by Nick Griffin (I won’t post the link but if you Google Sadie Graham and expuslion you can get all the detail you want). She has resigned from various party officers but says she remains loyal to the party and will fight expulsion. The BNP posters in Brinsley all disappeared overnight on Tuesday, as if by magic.
Thanks to Sean for the interesting article - yes, I think an election nationally would have been high-risk for the reasons you give, though I was pretty keen as local circumstances were optimal.
E Mids LibDems: up to 1987 they split the non-Tory vote with us evenly in Broxtowe, but my predecessor in 1992 established Labour as the main challenger, and lots of people who would be LibDem in Surrey vote Labour in GEs here. There’s a large Guardian-type voter group here, many of them also supporters of the World Development Movement, Oxfam, etc.: it tends to be development and environment issues that stir them most (rather than libertarian questions or electoral reform), so they don’t mind voting Labour at GEs and LD locally. I think the same is true elsewhere in Notts. The proximity of the old coalfield gave Labour the edge in organisation in marshalling the anti-Tory vote at GEs, and the large ethnic vote in Nottingham city is strongly pro-Labour.
Trafalgar: andrea still posts, but sadly less often as he’s finishing a thesis. seanT still drops in and tries to stir it with his usual stuff now and then, less often now that people don’t bother to respond. JackW hinted that he is too unwell to continue.
78 - The Lib Dems also won a clean sweep in the county of Powys in the 2005 GE, but it only contains two constituencies.
92-”Did anyone really think that when Brown chose the person to ‘investigate’ the loss of the disks he’d be found at fault?”
If so, the person will be disappointed…
94 Thanks Padarn. I had forgotten that Powys still existed after the 1999 reorganisation - sorry.
94 - they also had a clean sweep in the Highland Council area (three seats).
93, Nick Palmer:
“swingvoter - what is your source for the non-split - ”
BNP websites + stormfront.org.
It’s a news item on the official BNP website under ‘party reorganisation’. Mark Collett has been reassigned to ‘graphic design artist’ down from ‘Director of Publicity’. Another guy, a friend of Mark Collett and the other target of the ‘rebels’ (enoughisenoughnick.blogspot.com), Dave Hannam has had his post abolished (Regional Treasurer, and alleged thief).
It doesn’t say Sadie Graham and Kenny Smith have been reinstated, or any of the half-dozen others to have resigned.
“have they actually made it up?”
I don’t know but it looks like a peace offering which I assume will prevent resignations on a large scale. The rebels seem to have got what they wanted, though they lost their jobs as a result.
Maybe there will be further moves against Nick Griffin by those still in the party but I imagine it would be over other issues.
“There’s still an awful lot of bad blood to mop up - Cllr Graham alleges that two named BNP officials and three members of “Birmingham security” (BNP-talk for the sort of bouncers they have at meetings) entered her house illegally and have removed her laptop, authorised by Nick Griffin (I won’t post the link but if you Google Sadie Graham and expuslion you can get all the detail you want). She has resigned from various party officers but says she remains loyal to the party and will fight expulsion. The BNP posters in Brinsley all disappeared overnight on Tuesday, as if by magic.”
I imagine you know as much or more than I do. I just read this on the internet.
What I did find interesting was that many people on the Stormfront forums believe Mark Collett has a hold over Nick Griffin which explains why he was only temporarily sacked over the “Young Nazi and Proud” documentary and promoted ever since. Some say it’s that his parents are wealthy and major donors, others that he knows of some serious illegality is blackmailing Nick Griffin.
O/T
I understand that Cantor Index are offering 4/5 about Northern Rock being nationalised.
IMHO remarkably good odds,I am about to plunge in before the price is a more realistic 4/11.
thanks, swingvoter
99. The Labour benches will be cheering…finally some real socialism, just like the good old days.
92,95 — whitewash for honours?
98: It’s strange that BNP members are thinking of moving against Griffin because whatever you think of him he has greatly improved the parties position.
103. From what I hear, the BNP grass roots don’t like Griffin because he only has a go at Muslims, when he should be picking on the Jews as well.
Re 104, Socrates, “103. From what I hear, the BNP grass roots don’t like Griffin because he only has a go at Muslims, when he should be picking on the Jews as well.”
I thought their leader on Epsom or was it Ewell Council was Jewish?
Yes, Griffin is doing a good job leading the BNP, and I for one will not be sad to see the back of him as leader.
105. Yep. And apparently a lot don’t like it.
104: well, I dunno, one of Griffin’s allies allegedly believes that all Jewish people in Britain are illegal because of the terms of the Edict of 1290 by King Edward I - I kid you not.
107. Griffin clearly is Judophobic too, seeing that he claims the holocaust wasn’t genocide. I think he accepts Jews largely on image grounds, to show they’re tolerant (as long as you’re melanin is below a certain level).
“your”. God, its frustrating to make mistakes when I’m also a grammar Nazi.
re 107 Nick would that be the Quia Emptores 1290? This is the only statute of 1290 still in force (although it doesn’t apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland!)
I.
FORASMUCH as Purchasers of Lands and Tenements of the Fees of great men and other Lords, have many times heretofore entered into their Fees, to the prejudice of the Lords, to whom the Freeholders of such great men have sold their Lands and Tenements to be holden in Fee of their Feoffors, and not of the Chief Lords of the Fees, whereby the same Chief Lords have many times lost their Escheats, Marriages, and Wardships of Lands and Tenements belonging to their Fees; which thing seemed very hard and extream unto those Lords and other great men, and moreover in this case manifest Disheritance: Our Lord the King, in his Parliament at Westminster after Easter, the eighteenth year of his Reign, that is to wit, in the Quinzime of Saint John Baptist, at the instance of the great Men of the Realm, granted, provided, and ordained, That from henceforth it shall be lawful to every Freeman to sell at his own pleasure his Lands and Tenements, or part of them; so that the Feoffee shall hold the same Lands or Tenements of the Chief Lord of the same Fee, by such Service and Customs as his Feoffor held before.
II.
AND if he sell any part of such Lands or Tenements to any, the Feoffee shall immediately hold it of the Chief Lord, and shall be forthwith charged with the Services, for so much as pertaineth, or ought to pertain to the said Chief Lord for the same parcel, according to the Quantity of the Land or Tenement so sold: And so in this case the same part of the Service shall remain to the Lord, to be taken by the hands of the Feoffee, for the which he ought to be attendant and answerable to the same Chief Lord, according to the Quantity of the Land or Tenement sold, for the parcel of the Service so due.
III.
And It is to wit, that this Statute extendeth but only to Lands holden in Fee Simple; and that it extendeth to the time coming; and it shall begin to take effect at the Feast of Saint Andrew the Apostle next coming. [Given the eighteenth year of the Reign of King Edward, Son to King Henry.]
I think it’s also that Nick Griffin is simply an untrustworthy person. He has switched parties/ideology several times and helped destroy both the National Front and some kind of “3rd position” party he led before taking over the BNP.
107: Didn’t Cromwell revoke that or is it one of those silly laws that you lot have yet to revoke?
Of course he’s appointed Jewish, Turkish, Armenian etc people to positions in his party. Those who call themselves ‘White Nationalists’ evidently don’t like that because it ‘dilutes’ their agenda.
CON GAIN EVERYTHING
97 - enjoy the small rural areas.
2010 con gain all scotland
73 - LDs are unpopular everywhere.
Hows the tent?
114/115/116.
I love you.
You’re the 2007 version of Kenny Everett and his giant hands - can’t get enough;
“LET’S BOMB RUSSIA!!” **WAAAAAHEYYY!!!!!!**
(didn’t exist back then, but I’m sure the great man himself would also have added; LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!
:lol: 
:lol: )
117 LOL i have missed you
LDs = hehehehe
According to Ben Brogan its now 49 reviews not 31
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
come on someone, say something!
120-Hi!
121 hello ME - at last someone sensible posting here!
where is senior?
119 this is getting like John Major’s time where the Leader is being mocked and he can do nothing right. Leftie Steve Bell actually put Brown in Y fronts in a recent cartoon.
Also the problem with a ditherer as our PM is the effect it has in a range of key areas. We do need our European partners to commit troops to the fighting in Afghanistan. That requires good relationships with their Leaders. But Brown snubs the signing ceremony so they are hardly likely to want to do him any favours.
It was the same lack of care and attention towards the political media in the Conservative Conference. Brown attempts a PR stunt thinking that he can make the news, when they were all in Blackpool. Their reaction was to stick with the Conservative briefings and cast scorn on the stunt.
122-Ave it-”hello ME - at last someone sensible posting here!”
LOL!Are you saying this because I’m not a Liberal Democrat?
124 yes! i know you are more advanced than LD
hehehe
125-LOL!!Nothing against them, but I’m not one!!!
But wouldn’t you be nice with them because it’s almost Christmas?
126 i have been nice to them thats why there is no swearing!
But ave it 08 will be along soon to sort them out!!!
127-Well, if call that(118)nice, I can’t imagine how ave it 08 will be!!!!
128 wait and see
As the election gets close the intensity increases!
Preview: LDs = BOOOOO
129-LOL!I will wait!
129-Everyone is sleeping, because the thread is really slow tonight!
130/131 - it is slow
So I say GN all! (Or maybe just to you, me)
GOODNIGHT!
132-Good night ave it, have good dreams with the Liberal Democrats!!!
LOL
“A second poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters out today shows Hillary Clinton with a solid lead over Barack Obama, which has been inconsistent of polls this week.
A poll taken for Fox News gives Clinton a 34 percent to 25 percent advantage over Obama. John Edwards had 15 percent and Bill Richardson dropped six percentage points to have six percent. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4 percent.”
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/primarysource/2007/12/fox_poll_romney.html
Chris A. During the ward a bizarre MP called Archibald Ramsay was inerned for his pro German activities. On one occasion he asked that German radio broadcasts not be blocked and he was arrested as he had got wind that a German spy in the US embassy had been arrested. It was believe dthat Ramsay would have reveled details of his spying, which was before the US had entered the war.
He was a rabid anti-semite and he was eventually released at the end of the War. On almost the last day of the Parliament, before th election he referred to the Statute of Jewry and called for Jews in the UK to be identified by having to wear a yellow star. This was at the time of the broadcasts following the liberation of the Camps.
I once read the Hansard exchange, the unfortunate Leader of the HOuse was absolutely lost for words
Chelmsford BC Moulsham and Central votes today result just in - LibDem gain from Con
LibDem 1051 Con 640 Lab 153 UKIP 67
May result Con 1167/1141/1126 LibDem 984/975/926 Lab 296/271/256
Pretty big swing been in pub so not able to work it out .
For what it is worth, why John Howard did not step down when he could have:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22926587-12250,00.html
Chris A at 110 - that’s extremely erudite! Can’t see anything there that would assist Mr Griffin’s friend, though. Wikipedia has a piece on it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edict_of_Expulsion
However, this indicates that the Edict was revoked in 1656, so the BNP chap is 451 years out of date on this point.
137: remarkable result. Why do we think the LibDems are doing so well in local by-elections at the moment? The leadership election hasn’t attracted much comment, and what it’s attracted hasn’t been terribly favourable. Nor do their poll ratings look great. My theory, for what it’s worth, is that local by-elections are all about morale, and LibDems are still the best at energising their supporters when they get the chance to concentrate on a ward.
“From Kabul to Cowell, battered PM launches comeback blitz”
“Others pointed to the fact Brown has ordered close to 50 policy reviews since he took office. The source complained: “I know we have a policy unit inside Number 10, and a strategy unit, but if there is a decision unit, the phone is ringing out.”
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/gordonbrown/story/0,,2228034,00.html
136 Peter Golds. Re Archibald Ramsay.
“I once read the Hansard exchange, the unfortunate Leader of the HOuse was absolutely lost for words”
Well I am not lost for words to describe this scumbag. My problem is that the “banned words” list would inevitably block my post.
Huhne appears to be annoying the police about Abrahams…
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/funding/story/0,,2227790,00.html
” 6 Woody
Why is the East Midlands so poor for the LibDems at the Parliamentary level ? Other than Chesterfield (and the Leicester seat briefly) they don’t have any other MPs in the entire region, and I can’t think of any target seats either. Are they unfortunate with the boundaries or is it something else ? ”
Derby North is thier target seat. They enjoy strong support in certain wards within this new consistuency - far and above what should be considered normal (upto 50% of the vote). Labour are patheticly weak in those areas, meaning substantial votes for the Conservatives that would normally allow them to take wards are just not enough.
Efforts to crack them are ongoing but they run every local campaign like a full blown isolated by-election going highly aggressive and negative to protect the strongholds.
It works.
However, Derby North is much closer (potential three way marginal) than the Lib Dems try to promote in leaflets etc.
Nick at 139: “Why do we think the LibDems are doing so well in local by-elections at the moment?”
Maybe Liberal Democrats have been quicker and more efficient than Conservatives in completing all of their Christmas shopping and so have more time free to go out and vote?
Any Conservatives reading this - do feel free to use this excuse if you wish. There’ll be no charges…
Re 106, Socrates “105. Yep. And apparently a lot don’t like it.”
What? A Jewish leader of a group?
What are they? The Jenny Tongue party?
” They are making inroads in Derby ”
Incorrect.
They are now the third largest party behind both Labour and the Conservatives. They get the least overall City wide vote share as well.
Detested beyond reason by both who would rather work with each other than the Liberals… who have painted themselves into a corner by burning all bridges.
As I’ve said previously, they are very strong in three wards, Mickleover, Littleover and Blagreaves. These three areas make up a large chunk of thier overall support.
Re 107, Nick Palmer. “104: well, I dunno, one of Griffin’s allies allegedly believes that all Jewish people in Britain are illegal because of the terms of the Edict of 1290 by King Edward I - I kid you not.”
Well, they are, or at least they were until Cromwell reversed it. I understand that no one has reversed that reversal.
Interestingly enough I understand the original edict came about because some noble owed a Jew some money he either could not or did not want to pay back, so started a pogrom.
“Andrew Grice: The Week in Politics
There’s nothing splendid about PM’s policy of isolation”
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/andrew_grice/article3253073.ece
Re 142, Nick Palmer. “Huhne appears to be annoying the police about Abrahams..”
He is a Lib Dem, annoying people is in his DNA! Didn’t you know that? Sheesh
147 No the noble in question was the King iirc. The cost of conquering Wales (to this day we have more Castles per sqm than any other place on the planet) and just before the Scottish campaigns had practically bankrupted him to his lenders. So his “reaction” if you can call that vile act that was that.
Cromwell - Nope no reversal. Interesting counter point to his image as a messianic zealot. Again iirc Enland went to war with Spain and as customary they swiped all Spanish property in the Country. But somehow one man got access to Cromwell and said he was jewish and fleeing from Spanish persecution. Cromwell ordered that his property be restored to him forthwith
Re 150, Punter, I can’t remember when the pogrom was but it was in York. What led to the edict is another matter.
My understanding was that Cromwell let the Jews back in.
151-Benedict-I think you’re right:
“Then, in 1656 a Dutch Jew named Menasseh ben Israel, petitioned Oliver Cromwell to allow his people to return.
Cromwell, a devout Puritan and a man of common sense, could see the attraction of allowing them back. For a start, there was the popular belief that the Second Coming of Christ could not occur until Jews existed in all the lands of the earth. And there was also a shattered national economy to rebuild after a devastating Civil War.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article878482.ece
152-Funny, wikipedia says the same, but I found other article that says:
“In fact, it needs to be emphasized that there was no Act of Parliament, no proclamation from Cromwell, no order from the Council of State either welcoming Jews to England or changing their legal status from aliens to denizens(…)The only evidence we have suggests that publicly Cromwell remained undecided on the issue”
Re 152, me, It is interesting that the article mentions Yehudi Menuhin thus:
“Yehudi Menuhin
When his family were turned away by a landlady because they were Jewish, his mother vowed her unborn son would be called Yehudi, the Hebrew for Jew. He went on to become one of the most famous violinists of the 20th century and founded the Yehudi Menuhin School.”
His father was an academic at my local uni, not known for its pro zionist views, (the American University of Beirut) and wrote some very castigating books on political zionism, one of which is on my bookshelf.
When in their wisdom, the Knesset decided to award Yehudi the “Israel prize” in 1988 they invited Yehudi to address the Knesset which he did, form an anti zionist pro Palestinian viewpoint.
Interesting. I had not realised Yehudi was born here, I thought he was born in Israel.
154-Benedict-I thought he was born in America…