Were these the front pages Gord wanted to avoid?
December 14th, 2007
But has he upset both Euro-sceptics and Euro-philes at the same time?
Given their hostility to all things EU the front pages of the Sun and the Express are predictable this morning - the day after Brown’s Lisbon fiasco.
His strategy is inexplicable - on the one hand he has further angered the the EU-sceptics by signing the document; on the other hand the manner of his actions yesterday by deliberately arriving late to avoid the main signing ceremony is attracting ridicule and abuse from those more in favour of Europe.
The most illuminating description of Brown’s psychology and actions this morning comes in a feature by one of his biographers, Tom Bower, in the Guardian who looks at the influence of his father - the Rev John Brown, “his beloved father and minister at St Brycedale church in Kirkcaldy.”
Bower observes: “Until now, most assumed that Brown’s inheritance from his father was a devotion to the improvement of mankind and to honesty. No one doubts Brown’s commitment to eradicating poverty, but the honesty question niggles more than ever. Casting aside the latest insider reports about the prime minister’s abusive language, grudges, and reliance on cronies, his admirers are perplexed that the son of the manse consistently ignores the fundamental Christian value of truthfulness?
…Another legacy of life in the manse is Brown’s inability to overcome serious obstacles in problems created by himself. Treasury officials routinely complained about Brown’s refusal to listen to criticism or warnings. For years, his stonewalling was blamed on stubborness or lack of trust. The Northern Rock saga suggests another explanation: namely, Brown doesn’t understand financial complexities.”
If you want to bet on such probabilities that Brown might be out next year or that David Miliband will be his successor there are betting markets here.
Liberal Democrat leadership competition - If you want to enter please go to the previous thread.
Mike Smithson
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Sorry for the O/T, but in reply to Socrates on the previous thread:
283. I think the key question boils down to an understanding of the so-called English Enlightenment. Essentially, where do Locke, Hume, Berkeley &c fit into the intellectual landscape of the time. After all Rousseau and Voltaire did pay their tributes to these figures but - coming as they did from the empiricist tradition of Bacon and Hobbes as opposed Cartesian rationalism - their concepts were inherently historical looking rather than utopian.
Common Sense was written by Paine who, as I mentioned before, is really rather an outlyer in the intellectual history of the time. Paine’s recommendations (he was, as an Englishman rather than an American, an outsider) were quite alien to the likes of Jefferson and in their way too esoteric for the time. To stress again, the American Revolution was primarily a pragmatic one, not a conflict of great ideas. In the creation of the Constitution, there did admittedly emerge moments of debate which touched on this; but of course the highly Republican Constitution was in the end tempered by Jeffersonian Bill of Rights.
So going back to the point: yes the “Enlightenment” influenced thinking but it may not be the “Enlightenment” that one immediate thinks of. After all the rationalist / empiricist divide between the Anglo-Saxon world and the Continental Europeans was as true then as it has been since. Jefferson’s “all men are created equal” was not really controversial as interpreted in the context of post English Civil War ideas over here - where unlike in Europe, all men *were* already equal before the law (habeas corpus &c); where property rights were enshrined and serfdom gone; and where there was freedom of worship for non-conformists. Remember also that the equality they were referring was not against monarchy per se, which originally they were happy to support (Hamilton even wanted to invite a Germany prince to become King afterwards!), but against the encroachments of Parliament who thought themselves a superior legislature.
All in all, I come back to the fact that the Founding Fathers were generally not a utopian bunch of futurists. In many ways it was the last rupture of the age of Kings, a Whiggish dynamic rather than a Liberal one. The French went on to adopt much of the language of the Americans but they never reconciled the Anglo-Saxon penchant for looking to history with their own ideas that would go on to form the basis of Hegelian idealism. How this affects our “left” / “right” debate is, firstly, it is pre these terms; and secondly, the closest parallel to the modern world for me is the Swiss - and I wouldn’t classify them as “left wing”, would you?!
Brown’s manged to annoy the euro-skeptics by signing this constitution without a referendum, while insulting the euro-philes by making his signing into little more than a PR stunt. Brown seems totally incapable of getting it right.
To the question, their both equally bad headlines, but the Sun has 4x the daily expresses circulation, so that’ll be the worse one.
2 Maybe Oliver, but the Sun’s routine, knee-jerk hostility to all things European is well-know and in truth probably of little interest to most of its readers.
The disenchantment of the more sympathetic elements of the press and the public is more significant.
1. Yeah, I was just about to say that….
I wonder if the Treaty isn’t as much of a problem for Cameron as for Labour now. If he wants the full support of the Sin he’s going to have to promise a referendum, surely, but he’s hardly going to want the issue to overhang the first couple of years of his administration.
This isn’t an election-losing event, but the dither and incompetence does form part of a wider pattern. The most important political consequence is not this morning’s headlines but the potential impact on the place of the EU in British politics.
For 15 years, the Conservatives have had either a divided approach to the EU or an unrealistic approach. At present, they’re opting for the second, in that they want to redesign the whole enterprise, not noticing that 26 other countries have a veto on that and that many of the most influential countries have no interest in assisting such a redesign. It would be more intellectually honest to campaign to leave the EU than to have the policy that the Tories are currently campaigning on. In a general election campaign, the Tories will be vulnerable if this issue arises, no matter how superficially popular their position might be at present. I have a strong suspicion that splits in the Conservative position could emerge very easily, given the noises that the Better Off Out group make every now and then.
What Gordon Brown has done by signalling his alienation from the EU is to shift the centre of the debate dramatically towards the Eurosceptic position. I don’t think that is good for the country, and I certainly don’t think that is good for Gordon Brown, since he is blunting one of his sharper weapons against the Tories. There is an opportunity for the Lib Dems to take over the principled pro-EU case and to tone down the occasionally ridiculous Europhilia that some of its more breathless members come out with.
Gordon Brown has also alienated the current batch of leaders around the EU. I hope he doesn’t have any major favours that he needs to call in from any of them in the near future: karma can be a bitch.
It is hard to feel superior when The Sun and Express ignore the presentational froth and concentrate on the issues.
Interesting how various different images or caricatures of Brown have been put forward over the years and how some contradictory ones are still in circulation.
I’m reminded of a line in Robert Harris’ excellent Imperium where Cicero (the historical one, not the pbc version), is hoping to gain the patronage of Pompey and as such begins to extol pompey’s virtues, despite this not being popular at the time. When he does so, he throws himself into it on the grounds that if something unpopular has to be done, it is better to do it wholeheartedly.
To me, this is currently Brown’s biggest failing: his inability to stand up and be counted when he knows that what he is going to do isn’t that popular. That is not the mark of a leader; if he is not careful, it will be portrayed as the act of a coward. He neither has the guts to take the fight to the opposition, nor give in to their arguments.
The thing is, with that kind of attitude, how is he ever going to win the press back onside? He might hope that Cameron messes it up and gives it back to him on a plate - and he might get lucky in that respect. But then again he might not, and if he doesn’t, he’ll have to actively win them back. One thing about papers like The Sun is that their leadership (and probably readership) like leaders. They liked Margaret Thatcher, they liked Tony Blair - at least, they did most of the time - they despised John Major for being weak and laughed at Callaghan for something similar. Doing unpopular things quietly in the hope that no-one will notice is exactly the sort of thing they hate the EU for. Quite how Brown expects to win them back by acting in the same way I don’t know. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that he can’t do as long as he stays in the bunker and sends others over the top to fight on his behalf.
8 Yup. That’s about right, David.
Someone really ought to do a book on Tom Bower.
I know that he’s a friend of Mike’s, and does write well, but can he really derive satisfaction from building a career based on dragging people’s names through the mud? I wonder what in Bower’s father’s character led along such a negative course. If anyone has a holier than thou attidude it is him.
8 David I am sure you have the bones of the Brown approach right - although there are times when he caves in to Opposition arguments, eg about Inheritance Tax etc. The interesting question for me is “What is the vision he is trying to set out?” (Bearing in mind he told us all at the time of the non-election that that was what he intended to do).
It seems a very confused one at present, and it looks rather like a pattern:
Make mistakes - Hard criticism in the media - Make unfathomable declarations about aims in relation to the mistake - Get other ministers to make active and often OTT sounding announcements on other issues - leading to overreaction and more mistakes being made.
Until, as has been said here, he shows a consistent ideological line, he will remain, as in the press now, criticised from all sides, which is surely worse than being criticised mainly by the “usual suspects”! Perhaps, on reflection, this is why people were asking BEFORE he became PM, who GB “really is”? I didn’t understand the reasoning at the time, but the more time goes by, the more confusing it becomes.
The bean label is clearly here to stay, take another bow Vince Cable. Let’s hope the new leader is as effective at capturing the mood over the Government’s conduct.
I think that the European headlines may be the least of Mr. Browns worries. Following on from NR, I am now hearing some very specific rumours about at least three UK banks- and even one would be a serious challenge for the system that has already failed with NR.
I hope that they are not true.
This guy appears to have known Mr Brown at University. Here are two of his postings to the Telegraph website this year…
PM
forgets to hang tough on Europe
This was the aspect of Gordon Brown’s character that has most worried those of us who have known him since his teenage years. He is a classic bully. He gave those around him hell including Blair. He has, as ever, surrounded himself with weak minions who are in no position to challenge him. But when the going gets tough he has always collapsed and disappeared. The ‘Macavity’ tag is well merited. His vaunted intellect is mostly spin – he was not as outstanding at Edinburgh University as his propaganda machine would have you think. He tries to project the image of Big John Wayne but what we have been landed with is Prime Minister Mickey Rooney. The Blair Years were endlessly disappointing. The days ahead are going to be MUCH worse.
Posted by Rev Dr John Cameron on July 10, 2007 7:04 AM
Gordon
Brown’s psychological flaws will come back to haunt him
Brown has not changed one iota from the devious, untrustworthy teenager who arrived with me at Edinburgh University. His father really was a decent man and to hear this charlatan claim that his life and actions are a mirror image is outrageous. Pass me the sick bag, Darling.
Posted by Rev Dr John Cameron on October 10, 2007 9:37 AM
14 Erm, excuse me David W, but I like dMickey Rooney.
Seriously though, you cannot read too much into the Site postings of people who have no record or history that we know of. That is one of the joys of PB.com. We get to know who people are; whose views can be trusted and whose are more suspect.
Astroturfers, Tarquins and the like cut little ice around here.
My wife, bless her, is the most a-political person I have ever come across. She was at Edinburgh University in the mid 1970s when Gordon Brown stood for the Rectorship. Her disquiet at this proposition was so great that she actively campaigned for Magnus Magnusson in order to try and stop him.
2 more results from last night’s byelections :-
Surrey Heath DC Bagshott was LibDem hold , full result not yet available but around 5% swing from Con to LibDem
Reigate/Banstead DC Earlswood and Whitebushes narrow Conservative hold Com 421 LibDem 380 Lab 152 UKIP 113 Green 54
May result Con 849 LibDem 593 Lab 317 UKIP 169 Green 116
14 The Rev Dr John Cameron has been posting such for quite some time on a number of blogs - not sure what the history is between him and Gordon but obviously they were not happy fellow students. Not sure without knowing background what credence can be given.
14 So what? Did you get on with everyone at university? Cameron probably a Tory and is trying to claim some authority. Meaningless.
17. Bagshot I believe was LD 720, Con 590
To see the Sun claiming Churchillian defiance while its proprietor fondles the genitals of the Chinese politburo is a bit on the vomit-inducing side.
Cicero - It is my belief that Northern Rock will run out of assets to pledge to the BoE and the Treasury even if they are prepared to lend at 100% (£1bn for £1bn of assets) before Christmas, and certainly before Parliament reassembles.
If I am correct, what will happen then? Northern Rock directors will have to put the company into at least administration - otherwise they will be in trouble personally. It is a truth universally acknowledged that administration would be a disaster. With the assurances given by Ministers that all the lending is secured, to start lending on an unsecured basis without recalling parliament would have to result in resignations (Darling?). OR parliament could be recalled but this would be a massive and public humiliation, which might be so devastating that Brown himself might have to do a Ming!!
18 I shall ask Mrs Carp about him. About half f her friends from that time seem to have got themselves ordained.
17. Cons winning here ?
24 Not last night Conservatives losing nearly everywhere LOL
Blair was constantly being criticised for his spin and PR attitude to everything, well you certainly can’t criticise Brown for that!
Brown has obviously decided, he doesn’t give a toss, he’s going to do it’ ‘his way’ like it or lump it. Its going to get some getting used too, thats for certain.
As for not understanding financial complexities, when has that ever mattered to politicians, wasn’t it Home who had economics explained to him using matches?
18 Ted - Please don’t misunderstand. I wasn’t casting aspersions about the Rev’d - just making a general point.
Apologies to the guy if any offence caused.
David Herdson at 8 - the para below is the nearest thing you’ve ever done to a snappy one-liner but one with which I wholly concur.
“To me, this is currently Brown’s biggest failing: his inability to stand up and be counted when he knows that what he is going to do isn’t that popular. That is not the mark of a leader; if he is not careful, it will be portrayed as the act of a coward. He neither has the guts to take the fight to the opposition, nor give in to their arguments.”
Part of our consciousness is to appreciate to some extent, leadership qualities, even if we don’t like the road we are on. It is not a card to overplay like Thatcher, but Brown and Major both underplayed it
25,
Lost one won one. Hows that losing everywhere?
Link below is a good Fisking of Brown interview in the Times.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/401371/brown-gets-lively.thtml
Last night’s by-elections don’t in general suggest the Tories are getting anywhere, do they? Perhaps their voters are busier doing Xmas shopping…
I don’t think I’m revealing anything confidential when I say that both TB and GB have felt that the EU’s recent preoccupation with internal organisation is at best a tiresome necessity that has to be gotten out of the way before moving on to something that matters. GB’s evident limited interest in the signing accurately reflects that. Whether he ought to have simulated enthusiasm is debatable - the pro-European in me would like it, but I’m not sure that film of his joining the others in singing Ode to Joy was exactly what the British public want at the moment. “Yeah, sign it if you want and then get on with stuff that needs sorting” is probably an average position. That’s why it’s only on two fron tpages, though I agree it’s impressive that the Express has elbowed Diana aside for it
As for other EU leaders, they’re politicians and they know the score - they’d be pleased to have a passionate European at the helm, but as we’re supporting the deal they don’t really care whether Gordon wants to sing the anthem and do the photo-op.
Socrartes at 1 - interesting post for us history nerds. A minor quibble is that I do think Switzerland is quite a left-wing society in many ways. It’s certainly much more egalitarian than Britain both in spirit and in reality; it has an annual wealth tax; it has the arguably left-wing and certainly populist referendum system. But this sort of argument really shows the limits of the simple left-right classification, since there are obviously other ways that Switzerland isn’t left-wing.
Incidentally, there’s a major row going on there, as the right-wing populist leader Blocher, whose SVP party got 29% recently, has been ejected from the coalition Government by a vote of the other parties, in favour of a moderate SVP member. A walkout by the majority of SVP from the coalition is quite likely.
16 & 23 So why weren’t we warned, Augustus?
I know all the Tories will jump up and say ‘Told you so’ in manners varying from the shrill to the restrained, but most of them are about as reliable as The Sun and The Express.
What I want to know is where were all the Laborites, and LDs, who knew the guy, knew his track record and could have warned the rest of us before it was too late?
Interesting article Mike.
This isn’t a killer blow though, it is just one more straw on the camels back!
I get really tired of people telling me what a childhood genius Brown was - quite frankly I couldn’t care if he has 20 A-levels, 5 degrees and a few PhDs. The fact of the matter is that he is incompetent, untrustworthy and foolish. This ridiculous situation over the signing of the EU Treaty nicely support all three of those characteristics.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
27 Don’t think we disagree PtP; without knowledge of the Rev I have tended to ignore the posts except as a minor input to the portrait of Gordon.
30. “it has the arguably left-wing and certainly populist referendum system. ”
I’ll leave others to point out the rich irony of this statement by Nick Palmer MP on an EU thread.
34 Thanks Ted.
Sure, the image starts to stack up but we need more informed and preferably impartial inside information.
Perhaps Mrs Carp could write a short piece for us?
29 You missed out all the other results from last night see last night’s thread . 3 more results still to come .
31 Liberals? In Edinburgh? In the mid 1970s? Come on, PtP, be reasonable!
Meanwhile in the continuing tale of “drift and incompetence”
DEFRA to blame for 2nd foot and mouth outbreak - and they sat on the report for 6 weeks
Flood relief money wasted
More Darling dithering on CGT
Northern Rock drifts on rudderless towards the rocks
And these are supposed to be part of Brown’s triumphs over the summer. Wouldn’t it do better if Brown took Oliver Cromwell’s advice to the rump parliament to heart?
31. Prophet: “I know all the Tories will jump up and say ‘Told you so’ in manners varying from the shrill to the restrained, but most of them are about as reliable as The Sun and The Express.”
How rude!!
Some questions for you;
(1) What will I get for Christmas?
(2) Will the hot girl in my office be “up for it” with me at our Christmas Party?
(3) Will the new Bond film (out next year) be as good as my namesake?
22. Is that estimation based on a calculation or an instinctive feel?
Either is perfectly fair, if they are right. Just curious.
Clegg backed off the boards on betfair.
Have just read the Tom Bower article; I think it tells us all we need to know.
John Major rediscovered his soap box, and it seems that GB needs to stand on his penetance stool and repent for his sins
31. PtP. I think we were warned about Brown. Tony Blair, Charles Clarke, Alan Milburn, John Hutton, John Reid, senior civil servants all suggested or stated in outright terms that he would be a “disaster”. Because most that expressed the view were Blairites and an internecine war was raging at the time, their views were not given the credence they deserved.
38 Well frankly, Augustus, my oldest mate (and current landlord) was a student at Edinburgh in the late 60s, got married and stayed there to the present day. He was an ardent Tory (in family tradition) while at school, but by the time you speak of, he had become a Liberal in the radical tradition. And has been very active in all the campaigning which has brought the Lib Dems to their current strong position in the city.
And some news Norman Baker probably didnt want either…
Sleazebuster In-Chief, Lib Dem MP Norman Baker, has been critisised by the Parliamentary Standards Committee for breaching rules on the use of parliamentary allowances.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmstnprv/182/18202.htm
The Guardian covers it here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2227242,00.html
Baker has been exposed for carrying party-political material in what should be non-political constituency newsletters, which are funded by the taxpayer
As an MP who has made a career out of trying to ruin other members reputations, often for minor misdemeanours, it will be interesting to see if he asks to be given an easy ride, and benefit of the doubt
” 24 Not last night Conservatives losing nearly everywhere LOL ”
…and the point is?
Cons are the largest local party by more than Labour and Lib put together, and an average of 10 points ahead of Labour and miles ahead of the Liberals.
It about country-wide elections, not single battles or local elections involving villages of 400 people.
44 Indeed, StJohn, and it all looks horribly perspicacious now.
Of course at the time, it was all part of the ‘noise’ and in warfare, it’s always difficult to pick up the important signals. Nevertheless, I’m surprised there weren’t more warnings from independent sources.
Personally, I think Mrs Carp has a lot to answer for.
A curiosity: Murdoch’s Times has no leading article whatever on the issue today, preferring to lead with a discussion of football! Trying to steal the Sun’s readers, eh? There’s a piece in the Thunderer (which despite the name is a low-key column format which they use for quirky stirrers) by Rosemary Righter, and er that’s about it.
Out for a while so can’t respond to any withering retorts!
Peter the Punter @ 15
I have absolutely no idea who the Rev Dr is and attempts to Google him don’t produce much. It is however true that he appears to have an axe to grind and that he has posted elsewhere on a similar theme. I just felt that the posts I repeated here were rather pertinent to the theme of Mike’s original text, and in particular Mike’s comment that Mr Brown’s ’strategy is inexplicable’.
The Rev Dr’s posts certainly make me wonder whether we are starting to see certain aspects to Mr Brown’s true character that others have known about for years. For example, when I see him at the despatch box, furiously jabbing away at his papers in what I perceive as frustrated anger, I am fairly sure that I am looking at the ‘classic bully’, which the Rev Dr describes.
45, Well, Tim13, as no doubt the good Rev John Cameron would agree, “There is more joy in heaven over one sinner that repenteth”..etc
40. Let me take a stab at those for you but in a different order
1. The Christmas Party: With that shirt? Are you kidding me?
2. Christmas Present: If you don’t change that shirt your only present will be depression after the rejection
3. The Movie: Half of its success is dependent on the shirts he’s wearing: Dalton didnt go down as well due to budget cuts meaning he was wearing shirts from Tescos.
At this point may I humbly suggest you try Yokel Qyuality Shirt Co. We use only the finest sweat shops in Indonesia for out shirts. Our workers sweat more!
52. Yokel.
Alright, alright; keep your shirt on.
50 Thanks David.
We’ll file it under ‘interesting but no more than that’ then.
53. I can’t fail to as I buy my shorts from Yokel Qyuality Shirt Co…..
I also buy my shirts from there….I need to check my typing before I post…
53 LOL! Sometimes, CR, I truly admire and envy the wit and originality of some of our posters.
I do hope the better posts are being preserved to appear between hard covers one day.
54. Prophet.
Are you not talking to me anymore? ;-(
You charging for your divine services now?!
55/56. “I also buy my shirts from there….I need to check my typing before I post.”
Nothing wrong with your typing. If your company has its UK HQ in Essex then its title would probably reflect its phonetic spelling in the “vernacular”.
51 Augustus - yes, perhaps “the sinner” set a trend!
Perhaps Rev J Cameron may be related to D Cameron?! (or writing under a not very good soubriquet?)
58 LOL! No, not at all, Casino.
To be honest, I’ve got the flu, and am doing well just to type.
In a minute the puter will catch the virus from me and that will be it for time being.
Morning
Have we had the full result from Regency in Brighton, inc. turnout?
Clearly, compared with May it’s pretty much ‘as you were’ in terms of the top three.
The finer detail is harder to work out because the top Green and Lab candidates in May benefited from incumbency. (Lab candidates were 3rd and 7th which much be rare!) So for these two parties the mid-point of the two May scores is a somewhat inflated measure of the ’starting positions’. Could be argued that the swing should be calculated relative to the shares for second candidates in May.
In terms of the politics, Greens have to be delighted with such a big majority, given it was their newly elected councillor who quit. Will have surprised other parties, as expectation was that if Tories or Lab could reach 500 - unlikely on 13 Dec! - this would put the Greens under pressure even if not necessarily take the seat.
Lab v. disappointed to be third, though a pretty well oiled machine did turn out nearly the 400-odd votes I think they were expecting. Tories? Seem to be at a standstill in Pavilion (remember they could have taken clear control of the Council with a win last night). They possibly could still take Pavilion with a freakish result (30:30:30:10). But it’s looking more like this is going to be our first Red-Green marginal, with Lab marginal favourites.
30: When everything is falling apart, your leader is an object of ridicule, and you’re poll rating as plummeting big up some mixed council by election results. I thought that was Mark S’s job.
ConservativeHome.com is publishing various tables from Ipsos-MORI’s review of the political year.
62. Problem is their leader is not an object of ridicule - he’s done a good job. Pity for the LDs he’s out on his ear for the very poor man’s George Osbourne next week..
May I ask: if Brown has an undoubted commitment to eradicating poverty, why did he abolish the 10 per cent rate for income tax?
Nick Palmer: As this current treaty is part of the EU internal reorganisation (which shifts powers from Westminster to the EU) you must be including parliamentary sovereignty in your description of the process as “a tiresome necessity that has to be gotten out of the way before moving on to something that matters”.
What is it which matters so much more than our sovereignty?
30. Nick Palmer - I’ll assume you were referring to my post. I think the point here is that Switzerland is “libertarian”. I think it takes some convincing that this term can be reclaimed by the left when for many generations it has been the preserve of the right. After all, referenda and other initiatives are all about the Swiss suspicion of federal / central government. And of course yes that is in stark, stark contrast to Britain which has one of the most centralised governments in the world, particularly in terms of the fiscal system.
“I shall ask Mrs Carp about him. About half her friends from that time seem to have got themselves ordained.”
Clearly a remarkable woman. Once she had rejected them these youths of Edinburgh took the cloth - how many actually became Monks!
64: I was talking about Gordo. But I agree on Vince Cable, so much better than the actual choices.
30 Dear oh dear , one decent result last week for Conservatives in Richmond and Conservative posters were out here in force and HF was demanding to know what went wrong with the LibDem campaign , rather worse results this week and HF has disappeared up his own rear end so come on HF - what went wrong with the Conservatives in Romsey .. and Surrey Heath … and Reigate … and Bermondsey where the local Conservatives were hyping up a breakthrough . Romsey is supposed to be one of the most vulnerable LibDem seats in the country already ticked off as a gain in the minds of most Conservatives .
70 should refer to Ralph’s post at 62 .
66 Eradicating tax rates, Charlotte? You really think it’s as simple as tweaking a few tax rates?
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
Thisa is bad news indeed.
That’s a very hash thing to say, Harry (64) - even worse than George Osborne? Nobody could be more useless than George Osborne - except the present and immediately past Chancellor, of course. But in their case, they seem positively set on ruining the country.
58,
He can’t charge for his services, CR. It’s a non-prophet making enterprise!
… I’ll get me coat …
O/T I have to say I was taken aback by John Loony’s defence of Stalin - like the rest of you, I can’t work out if he was joking, or if he was living up to his moniker.
I suppose I’m wasting my time entering this argument, but I find it hard to understand why, if Stalin was such a wonderful ruler, he was surrounded by so many millions of people who were plotting against him -such as most Soviet Army Officers, the majority of Old Bolsheviks, Trotsky, Zinoviev, Bukharin, most of the Ukranian, Baltic, and Polish populations, the Kulaks, the Chechens, the Tatars, the Jews etc.
I mean what’s more likely - that millions of Soviet citizens were really working in league with the Nazi and Western intelligence services to overthrow the Dear Leader, or that the Dear Leader was a paranoid, murderous, lunatic?
I’m confused, why is George Osbourne so bad? And if someone calls him a toff or something along those lines then it’s a rubbish reason.
70. yes, the lib dems did very well in the local elections. They gained…well, nowhere, after losing a load of councillors at the last major local elections and becoming tiny compared to the tories. The tories are now bigger then the labour and lib dems put together at a local level, so crowing over keeping a few seats doesn’t mean much.
76 - surely comments about Stalin aren’t O/T when the thread is about our very own Supreme Leader?
But, as you suggest, I don’t think it’s really a good idea to engage with Mr Loony on this one.
72. No, I don’t. But for those on very low incomes, it will act against them, not for them. I was genuinely shocked when Brown announced this right at the end of his last Budget as he seemed more concerned with wrong footing the Conservatives than helping the poor. Until then I thought of him as having some sincerity.
79 Doesn’t “Stalin” mean “Man of Steel” or something?
If so it is unfair to compare him with Brown, the “Man of Jelly”
81. Gelatin Brown?
26. “Blair was constantly being criticised for his spin and PR attitude to everything, well you certainly can’t criticise Brown for that!”
Quite true. I hate to say it, but Brown seems to have taken ‘un-spun politics’ too far; he’s showing us what it looks like to govern the country without paying much attention to public relations, and the result isn’t pretty!
Blair was, as you say, criticised for relying too much on spin, and the influence of PR people like Alastair Campbell; well, Brown desperately needs to get himself his own Campbell, fast. As an ex-PR man himself, Cameron would never make the kind of basic errors Brown is making time and time again.
76: There is a third option, party functionaries dotted around the USSR were so scared of being sent to Siberia or being shot that they ‘found’ plots everywhere.
What sums up Stalin’s purges was that they arrested whole classes of nine year olds who were involved in a ‘plot’.
84 - Not unspun, just spun badly. Yesterday’s debacle being a prime case in point.
65 - Because he did not have enough money in the kitty to pay for the headline-grabbing cut in the basic rate to 20%
That only leads to more questions:
Why is our politics so infantile?
— Let’s suppose he made the same changes in reverse, taking a little extra money from the better off to give to the poorest workers. It is not hard to imagine the response of the Opposition, and the thunderous charges of tax-raising by the scurrilous press (even though the change is neutral overall). It simply isn’t possible to have a mature debate in our current political climate.
How can we possibly change this?
— I hardly think that voting Tory is going to help. The Lib Dems are now abandoning any pretence at resisting this tide, with their ridiculous plan to reduce the basic rate of income tax to 16% by increasing “green” taxes. And so the tax base of the exchequer is further undermined for short-term political gain…
[87] Quite so. I am reminded of the friend of my father’s (this was in British Columbia) who thought the entire tax base of the province should be tourist taxes!
To add to Mike’s article, the comments from the Editorial from that well not supporter of Brown, the Mirror.
“But once the other 26 EU presidents, prime ministers and chancellors agreed to attend, Gordon Brown should have turned up on time.
Our Premier was caught in the worst of all worlds, appearing rude and uncommitted by missing the official signing while failing to appease swiveleyed home-grown Europhobes.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/voiceofthemirror/
81 Charlotte
I raised the point because after a lifetime working in tax I reached the conclusion that tax rates, and certainly formal rather than effective rates, were pretty irrelevant to questions of development and the fight against poverty. The best you can hope for is an efficient and honest system that doesn’y actually block it.
The struggle against poverty is best conducted eleswhere. The best hope, as demonstrated by India and other countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, lies in liberating capital markets, so that real jobs can be created and people can earn their way out of hardship, almost irrespective of the prevailing tax rates.
[90] You mean the kind of liberated capital market that gave us Northern Wreck, eh
?
91 Yup. Should have suffered the fate of any failed business.
Hard lesson short-term, right one long-term.
Re 92, Peter the Punter “91 Yup. Should have suffered the fate of any failed business.
Hard lesson short-term, right one long-term. ”
You are quite the Laisse fare (sic) Thatcherite Conservative aren’t you
87 You are right about our politics being infantile and the need to change. It reminds me of something that my local councillor once told me when I lived in Winchester.
In the old days, this was a rock-solid Tory council, but in the 80’s it moved to “no overall control”.
Fred (not his real name) told me that the change in the quality of debate that came over the council was astonishing. Committees started to discuss matters on their merits far more than along party lines, and people found that they had to develop persuasive arguments to get their ideas adopted, rather than relying on the party bloc vote.
Maybe that’s a good argument for hung parliaments - maybe not. Someone will no doubt quote me an example now of a council moving to “NOC” and chaos descending.
It could just be that Winchester council worked because all the people were Hampshire folk, who as everyone knows are the most practical, intelligent and reasonable people in the whole of Britain.
82
Iosif Vissarionivich Djugashvili-Stalin, Stalin was his revolutionary name,’ Man of Steel’.
Russian history is peppered with cruel despotic leaders, there is a strange admiration for them by the Russians, almost an acceptance, if you aren’t killing someone, what sort of leader are you?
Of course, murderous blood thirsty dictator he may have been, but it didn’t prevent Churchill immediately offering him an alliance.
The Communist MP Willie Gallagher challanged Churchill, how could he a staunch anti-Bolshevik now enter an alliance with Stalin.
Churchill replied, ‘I can assure the Honourable Member, that if Adolf Hitler invaded hell, I would come to this house and make a speech, in favour of the devil.’
93 In some respects, yes Benedict.
Re 96, Peter the Punter “93 In some respects, yes Benedict.”
Right… so a left leaning normally Labour voting Thatcherite Conservative?
I see. Does your shrink get paid extra for the complexity
One more result from yesterday Merthyr BC Treharris Independent hold but a good result for LibDems to come 2nd . Plaid seem to have given up contesting elections in Wales .
Ind 405 LibDem 328 Lab 317 Ind 81
2004 result 3 seats Ind 1054/882 Lab 764/731/614 PBP 490
96,97 - “Does your shrink get paid extra for the complexity”
No I don’t - it’s just half rations if he doesn’t feel better soon.
Harrow LBC Canons ward Con hold Con 1208 Lab 389 LibDem 296 Ind 182 BNP 56
2006 result Con 2214/2173/2085 Lab 602/536/474 LibDem 450/394/373
Re 99 mighty Fella “No I don’t - it’s just half rations if he doesn’t feel better soon. ;-)”
PA reports
The Green Party is celebrating a comfortable council by-election victory in the Commons constituency where it has its best chance of a breakthrough at the next General Election.
It easily held a Regency seat in a Brighton and Hove City contest.
The ward is in Brighton Pavilion constituency where it would need a swing of just over 7% to win from third place.
A PA analysis of this May’s city council elections in the constituency put the Greens narrowly in the lead just ahead of the Tories with Labour trailing in third place.
This week’s by-election result shows a further 7.7% increase for the Green Party since then.
Liberal Democrats defended marginal seats at Bagshot, Surrey Heath Borough and Cupernham at Test Valley Borough, Hampshire, a ward which is in the knife-edge Romsey constituency.
They also came close to a shock gain at Treharris, Merthyr Tydfil Borough, South Wales where they missed taking an independent seat by just 77 votes, pushing Labour into third place.
Analysis of four comparable results gives a projected nationwide line-up of C 42.4%, Lab 32.5%, Lib Dem 18.2%.
No seats have changed hands so far but a result from Harrow London Borough is not expected until early afternoon.
RESULTS:
Brighton and Hove City - Regency: Green 749, C 397, Lab 376, Lib Dem 148, Ind 130. (May 2007 - Two seats Green 863, 781, Lab 565, C 525, 516, Lib Dem 454, Lab 447, Lib Dem 425, Ind 218, 57). Green hold. Swing 3.5% C to Green.
Hounslow London Borough - Chiswick Riverside: C 1207, Lab 414, Lib Dem 250, Green 103. (May 2006 - Three seats C 1803, 1775, 1709, Lib Dem 795, Lab 713, Green 698, Lab 694, 509). C hold. Swing 5.6% Lab to C.
Merthyr Tydfil County Borough - Treharris: Ind 405, Lib Dem 328, Lab 317, Ind 81. (June 2005 - Ind 1054, Ind 882, Lab 764, 734, 614, People Before Profit 490). Ind hold.
Reigate and Banstead Borough - Earlswood and Whitebushes: C 421, Lib Dem 380, Lab 152, Ukip 113, Green 54. (May 2007 - C 848, Lib Dem 593, Lab 317, Ukip 169, Green 116). C hold. Swing 4.4% C to Lib Dem.
Southwark London Borough - Riverside: Lib Dem 1114, Lab 691, C 260, Green 122, Ukip 49. (May 2006 - Three seats Lib Dem 1080, 1027, 988, Lab 652, 540, 533, C 488, 480, 437, Green 399). Lib Dem hold. Swing 0.2% Lab to Lib Dem.
Surrey Heath Borough - Bagshot: Lib Dem 720, C 590. (May 2007 - Two seats C 779, Lib Dem 773, C 754, Lib Dem 765, 741, C 657). Lib Dem hold. Swing 4% C to Lib Dem.
Test Valley Borough - Cupernham: Lib Dem 793, C 460, Ukip 73. (May 2007 - Two seats Lib Dem 935, 881, C 745, 705). Lib Dem hold. Swing 6.9% C to Lib Dem.
Wychavon District - Lovett and North Claines: C 837, Lib Dem 342. (May 2007 - Two seats C 1357, 1205, Lib Dem 576, Lab 249). C hold. Swing 4.3% Lib Dem to C.
re 62 In Regency, Brighton LDs got just 148 and Independent 130. Turnout was just under 24% - low but higher than 20% predicted at 3pm.
So the story is fairly straightforward - over half LD vote defected mainly to Green. Tories and Lab shares not significantly changed from May. So very good for Greens but not so bad for Tories and Lab as first appeared from the size of majority. LDs facing threat of extinction down here in the liberal city. Only two councillors and I imagine Greens will be able to grab one of those next time if they go for it.
Harrow Canons by-election result has just been published:
Con 1208 56.7 -12.7
Lab 389 18.3 + 1.0
LD 296 13.9 + 0.8
Ind 182 8.5
BNP 56 2.6
82, 83
Don’t say “Brown”, say “Useless”.
(for our older readers)
[94] Disraeli wrote Hampshire folk, who as everyone knows are the most practical, intelligent and reasonable people in the whole of Britain - steady on old bean, I’m not sure even John Arlott went that far…
re 103 btw if it seems stranged to suggest that Greens might get just one of two seats rather than take the ward, you need to know that they have been very adept in Brighton and Hove at picking off one seat initially by using ‘Green - first preference’ (or similar).
90. Prophet.
This is interesting. Keen to tease out what you mean!!
I am not so dogmatic as to dismiss your argument out of hand. I can understand entirely where you are coming from.
But don’t you agree that an argument based on tax-rates being irrelevant to development lends credence to those who argue that it largely doesn’t matter what tax rates are set at??
As an example, there tend to be two points of view. (1) Those who believe that wealth is collective and therefore have no issue with consistent increases in tax rates as they deem necessary to fund government programmes, if not as high as they can get away with anyway on the basis it should be redistributed, and, (2) Those who believe wealth is largely individual and tax is a necessary evil which should be kept as low as possible to encourage innovation and growth.
My point is that is a wealth of evidence showing that, taken on a wide enough scale, attitude (1) largely public economy - leads to much more waste and inefficiency than attitude (2) largely private economy - all three main parties largely accept this premise.
Do you dispute this?
On a personal (slightly cold and callous) level, discounting inflationary effects, over the medium-long term I’m sure a 30% council tax cut (which would personally benefit me greatly) would have a greater economic impact if I could spend an extra £30 a month on consumer goods/luxuries etc. than if it was spent on, say, meals-on-wheels, or social care. Taken on a large aggregate scale, this spending would alter the pattern of employment in the economy, would it not? I certainly think so.
Also, what is your view on the economic effects of differential tax rates internationally and how that attracts/repels business investment?
I agree that interest rates, macroeconomic stability and financial liquidity are far, far more important than the % tax rate, but I certainly do not agree that tax rates are irrelevant.
102 - anyone know what the PA’s methodology in working out ‘projected national vote share’ is? My gut feeling from these results suggests the Tories have slipped back from May 2007 when they scored 40-41% - rather than the 42+% the PA suggests?
103 The Greens have little chance of taking one of the 2 LibDem seats in Brunswick/Adelaide ward . This is in the Hove constituency and does not figure in their strategic expansion plan which is targetted at Brighton especially Pavilion constituency wards .
93. Benedict.
“You are quite the Laisse fare (sic) Thatcherite Conservative aren’t you”
Always wondered.. what does “sic” or “(sic)” actually mean??
This has bothered me for years.
106 Innocent Abroad. SAINT John Arlott, if you don’t mind!
109. Dan, I wouldn’t pay any attention to PNVS from by-elections: it is, frankly, impossible to work out such a thing credibly when the seats the by-elections occur in were elected in different years; when local factors distort votes; where all three main parties may or may not have contested the seat - either in the by-election or the base election; to paraphrase Ronald Reagan, this is voodoo psephology.
My instinct is slightly different from yours; at least based on the London results we’ve been getting - in London I’d say the Tories are up from 2006, but so is Labour (by slightly less); that the Lib Dems are still competitive where they are competitive but otherwise they and the other minor parties are getting squeezed heavily.
111 Casino Royale. “sic” means “thusly” i.e. “No -it isn’t a mis-print.”
So in your example “Laisse fare (sic)”, the (sic) is there to indicate that you know that it should really be spelled “faire”, but you are quoting the original mis-spelling.
111. Do you mean what the origin of the word is - it’s Latin meaning thus or so; or what its correct usage is - its used when you’re quoting something that someone has spelt incorrectly and you want the reader to know that you’re reproducing accurately an inaccurate original spelling; that you’re not a bad speLar yourself!
Hence, “laisse fare” should actually be spelt “laissez faire” and that is the reference being alluded to above.
111. It’s Latin for thus and normally indicates that a grammatical or spelling mistake in a quotation has been reproduced exactly.
Perhaps it would have been more apposite if Bendict had accused PtP of advocating ‘less fair’ economics.
112. Someone mention me?
113 - I agree about PNVS.
Three contests in London last night and the Tories up in one and down in two. Labour seem to be up marginally (or pretty much the same everywhere). Lib Dems patchy as you say (but the same as it ever was).
I would have thought that the Test Valley seat would have been gained by the Tories had it been fought in the summer. Perhaps it’s just end of year sloth, but there’s little sign from polls or by-elections that the Tories are really pushing on from where they were before Brown became PM.
114/115/116 Cheers guys.
Let’s leave it now.
I’m getting a bit sic (sic) of talking about it now.
Disraeli @ 94 re NOC — “Committees started to discuss matters on their merits far more than along party lines”.
Sounds great but is it democratic? If I vote for the XXX party, it is because I really do want XXX policies. If issues are to be decided “on their merits” then what are the parties for? Come to that, what are politicians for? Why not have civil servants or council officers decide everything?
Re 114, Disraeli “So in your example “Laisse fare (sic)”, the (sic) is there to indicate that you know that it should really be spelled “faire”, but you are quoting the original mis-spelling.”
Or in my case I use it to mean I can’t be ar*sed to check the spelling
108 Casino Royale
Can I get back to you? You deserve a proper answer but I’m busy and unwell today and I want to give you an answer that does your post justice.
Later, or tomorrow perhaps?
sic : spelling isn’t correct
123.
Please, can someone change the Mark Senior Broken Record?
“Plaid seem to have given up contesting elections in Wales”.
This makes as much sense as inferring that the Lib Dems failure to supply a candidate in Kerrier District - Helston North on Nov 28th means that the Lib Dems seem to have given up contesting elections.
There are lots of very sensible Lib Dem posters on this site — and then there is Mark Senior.
re 110 er, they targetted effectively in Kemptown, too, in May. Greens may stay out of Hove but they would be daft not to target Brunswick/Adelaide as it’s one of the few wards they could look to gain a seat next time. And it’s easy to expand into, using supporters (lots from London, as elections do not overlap) who no longer need to be so focused on the central Brighton wards. All the evidence is that Greens here are no mugs at the election game, so I’d be very surprised if they didn’t try for one seat.
122 - Peter
Wish you better old bean!!
“Sic” Latin for “thus” so if someone mkes. Mistake and you quote them, you write “sic” to show it was written that way and is not your errorm
122. Yeah, if you want. Can’t guarantee I’ll find it though!
Sorry to hear you’re unwell.
Don’t sweat about it. My post was a bit intense. I’m just bored at work today and felt like having a discussion about it.
Funnily enough many of my (chiefly Conservative) lawyer/banker friends also think it’s not so much about tax rates, but tax legislation/tax law and the consistency of tax rates over the medium/long-term. Also, when pressed, it’s often more government spending and policies (”crowding out”) which causes economic distortions, rather than the relative tax take.
Interesting stuff.
Re 125, Gwynfa “There are lots of very sensible Lib Dem posters on this sit”
Are there?
[112] Oddly enough, I nearly wrote “of blessed memory” - I still miss him whenever I tune into a Test Match on the radio…
[108] CR, I think you can take that “slightly” out of “slightly cold and callous” - in fact social care spending is bound to produce employment in this country, which your additional discretionary expenditure may well not. But I may be biassed - both my wife and mother are in long-term care placements.
131 = Alas, since ColinW stormed off into the night, the quality and political insights from the LibDems here have declined somewhat, hasn’t it?
“Can Brown’s reputation hold up under the weight of Northern Rock?”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/403186/can-browns-reputation-hold-up-under-the-weight-of-northern-rock.thtml
118. Dan, you’re right looking specifically at last night that there’s not much sign of Tory revival; but again, the results last night show the problem with notional vote share forecasts.
Take Canons - a phenomenally safe Tory ward in Harrow. In a by-election contested by five candidates the Tories were unlikely to hold onto the nearly-two-thirds share they won when it was contested in 2006 when I suspect neither Labour nor Lib Dems did any work there cos they had more promising seats to work. So, does a Tory drop of 13% really mean they’re doing worse off than in 2006?
One of the slightly unusual things about the London by-elections there have been so far is how stable they’ve been; there haven’t been that many, and they’ve tended to be in meaningless (in terms of parliamentary forecasting) wards. Barnes and Chiswick are two recent exceptions, possibly Crystal Palace.
Southwark is meaningless other than in indicating that the Lib Dems may have staunched the loss of votes to the Tories they endured in 2006 in the north of the borough; or it could just mean that in a by-election in a ward again considered safe in 2006 actually campaigning hard polarises and gets the vote out more effectively.
125 Sorry if what I say upsets you , Plaid did not contest the Conwy seat up the other week either ( despite having a councillor in the ward in 2004 ) . Note Mori’s Wales subsample in their latest Monitor had Plaid on just 8 % . I would suggest you come out of the power sharing with Labour in the WA before it destroys you completely .
Also some flack for the chancellor over capital gains tax, and his dithering over the new threshold.
120 John L. Of course it’s democratic. It is the “representative democracy” that this country used to have before party discipline and professional politicians obtained their current stranglehold. (Note that I am not advocating a system where Party machines form alliances in hung parliaments in cynical deals. I feel the same distaste for that state of affairs as you obviously do.)
It is where you vote for the man or woman who most matches your views, knowing that they will put them forward into the debates in council/parliament/committee on your behalf. And if you feel that they are not doing this properly, then you get rid of them.
I think that this probably is easier to see in operation at local level, rather than at national level.
It’s only going to get worse for Brown in my view with James Murdoch now at the helm of News International.
134 The Conservatives were shouting ( hyping in Peter Gold’s words !!! ) up their chances in Southwark Riverside as they did in the recent Crystal Palace and Lewisham byelections . They certainly put in a great deal of effort into Southwark this time but got no reward at all .
O/T-”Obama, Clinton Tied in New Hampshire
THE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats and Republicans in New Hampshire”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5juburdSSdigTLtmCg6Ez87e67L_gD8TH7I600
131. Innocent.
*Sigh* As I typed those words I knew it was only a matter of time before I’d get sniped a