Who’ll be the Political Forecaster of 2007?
December 20th, 2007
How are you going to do in our annual competition?
On January 1st 2007 we opened our annual competition for the Political Forecaster of the Year. The questions that were asked then are set out below.
With Nick Clegg safely ensconced as Lib Dem leader nearly all the issues have been resolved - the only thing that could still spring a surprise could be final Guardian ICM survey of 2007. To view the entries please click here - which takes you to the National Web Archive where everything that has ever been written on PBC is stored for preservation in perpetuity.
Click through the pages to see who has got it most right and most wrong during the past year. The final result will be announced on New Year’s Day.
Paul Maggs, who manages PBC competitions and I are already working on the 2008 contest which will be published within the next fortnight.
Has “The Observer” paid yet? Thanks for the supportive comments on yesterday’s threads. Alas there is nothing to report. I have sent him a couple of emails but have had no response.
Mike Smithson
*********************xxxxx******************
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown)
2. Leader of the Opposition
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer
6. President of France (100 points)
7. Scotland’s First Minister
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points)
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points)
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year
20. The LDs highest rating during the year
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections
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Lembit Opik isn’t still the Lib Dem spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland, is he? If so, he’s been keeping uncharacteristically quiet about it…
Post 253 Previous Thread - Sorry guys but the free money available by backing and laying McCain for the Republican nomination has effecticely now gone, with Hills slashing their price from this morning from 14-1 to 10-1. I guess it had been there all day, but certainly I didn’t spot it until very late and had to telephone my bet by 1.00am. I posted a free money notice at 12.39am. Hopefully one or two others got on - this was a good one as I’ve since laid off the entire bet on Betfair at an average of 8.4-1.
and coupled with a similar exercise on Huckerby 10 days ago, thanks to PtP, I’ve now recovered an earlier and completely futile investment on Sam Brownback.
2. Peter. When do you sleep?
3 I might ask you the same!
OK, in my frantic search to find you free money and whisper this very quietly, I notice that Corals still have McCain for the GOP nomination at 12-1 and it works in these early hours - I’ve just had some! Meanwhile McCain’s price to lay on Betfair has narrowed slightly to 9.8, i.e. 8.8-1. I don’t expect Coral’s price to last as they are out of line with these odds, so if you’re interested get on early!
4 Sorry, I’m getting a bit confused with my Betfair odds, well it is late! I’ve laid off my entire Coral bet on McCain at 9.0, i.e. 8-1, but the price is now 9.8, i.e. 8.8-1, still an attractive margin though.
US Election - of virtually no import at all, but it is being reported that Tommy “the Tank” Tancredo will withdraw from the race after garnering only “low single-digit support”. The Kevin Philip Bong of the campaign, it could be said that his campaign has, er, tanked….
Mention of Shane McGowan on the previous thread should not pass on this site without praising him for the finest betting song of all time - The Pogues’ “Bottle of Smoke”
“Twenty f**kin’ five to one
and MY HORSE WON!”
I also wonder who won the competition, but am fairly certain it is not me!
Benedict White, you seem to get by on about four hours sleep, so - you are Margaret Thatcher and I claim my fiver!
Betfair has Giuliani’s odds for the GOP nomination slipping to 2.15-1. The latest poll shows him level pegging with Romney. Huckerbee is also starting to slip a little and is currently just under 5’s. Could it be that he’s already had his day in the sun?
Personally, I still see Hillary as the clear out and out winner and at around 1.25-1 (”first female president” market on Betfair), I can’t see her getting much shorter, unless something totally unforeseen occurs which I doubt.
10. PtP. A thought about the US elections which has just occurred to me… does Betfair have a ‘Next Vice-President’ market? Because if so, John Edwards would probably be a very good bet.
The logic is: assuming that the Democrats win in 2008 (which can’t be taken for granted, of course), the next President will most likely be either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. For either of those candidates, John Edwards would make a good running-mate: with a woman or a black man as the Presidential candidate, I can see the Democrats wanting to ‘balance the ticket’ by having a Southern white man as the Vice-Presidential candidate. (For this, and other reasons, a Clinton/Obama ticket is basically out of the question.)
Edwards is likely to do well in Iowa, putting him in a strong position for the rest of the race; and if he ends up doing well but not winning, he’d make an obvious choice for VP. That’s exactly what happened in 2004, and I would not be at all surprised if it happened again.
Any thoughts?
11 Alasdair - No, I haven’t seen a VP market anywhere as yet, and you can sort of understand why. As the two parties’ campaigns progress towards their final stages, we know from past experience that the selection of a VP is often a sort of cobbled together horse trade, agreed in (formerly) smoke filled rooms. This is exactly the sort of market the bookies seek to avoid, i.e. where the right inside information could result in them being taken to the cleaners.
Looking at the “Next President” market on Betfair, which means literally just that, there are, from memory, around 30-40 candidates, the vast majority of whom, of course, are complete no-hopers. I am surprised to note however that Dick Cheney is not included if only on the well rehearsed adage that he is always just a heartbeat away from the job.
Perhaps Betfair consider it politic not to include him so as not to tempt fate.
Great to see Tory policy on coal. Dig up coal, burn it, capture the carbon, solidify it and bury it in the ground. Net output zero carbon, oh and zero enerrgy.
Why not leave the coal where it was? Much easier.
13 - Looks like your lot are doing the same. From your employer:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7153139.stm
“…Ministers are currently conducting a competition among companies bidding for government grants to develop workable systems…”
Do keep up, dear.
Many thanks to Marcia for flagging up this story in yesterday’s pbc thread. I wonder if Severin Carrell of The Guardian is a peruser of this blog?
If you dabble in shares in media companies it is perhaps worth noting that we are likely to see a sharp increase in market share for the Daily Express, Sunday Express and Daily Star north of the border. We know that the Daily Record will not change course, but what will the Scottish Sun do? While several Sunday newspapers have been periodically pro-SNP, the only daily paper to be pro-SNP was the Scottish Sun, briefly.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/dec/19/dailyexpress.pressandpublishing?gusrc=rss&feed=media
http://www.allmediascotland.com/articles/2136/19122007/express_newspapers_to_support_snp
Mail unimpressed by Compo’s first day:
http://tinyurl.com/2rysjw
13 If you are going to try to make fun do get your facts right, it’s not solidified or turned back to carbon.
It isn’t totally green though - the CO2 is pumped into oil-fields which extends their life and enables more oil to be recovered, a large proportion of which is burned in vehicles and central heating releasing CO2 into the atmosphere.
11. Would Edwards want to be VP? It’s a thankless job in itself and the prospects of ganing the big one at the end of it are healthy only though inheritance, not election (George HW Bush is the only Vice president to go straight on to be elected president since before the Civil War - Nixon did it at the second go). I get the impression that it’s win or nothing for him this time.
16 But were you impressed by my responses to your posts yesterday,Test?
I take it from the lack of response you were busy…just like I am now.
Catch you later maybe.
Ciao.
The lead on the ITV news last night was Brown’s ‘crisis, what crisis?’ and how unbelievable it sounded. He’s still using the safe pair of hands tactic, which has proved incredibly unsuccessful so far.
Don’t think I’m going to be challenging the leaderboard too much. Ain’t much good at this prediction thingy.
But I did call Sarkozy correctly and confidently at the turn of the year - the one ray of light.
11 - There is a VP market at Intrade. At the moment the Democratic favourites are Bayh (15.3%), Clark (13.0%), Gore (12.0%), Richardson (11.5%) and Obama (11.2%). Edwards is some way behind at 3.6%.
Edwards added little to the campaign four years ago so I doubt he would be picked again.
21- Well I got this one as well (obviously), and Darling as Chancellor. But I think that pretty much all the rest of my answers are wrong…
I think I did quite well on the competition for once. Ming lasted a bit longer than I thought he would though.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7153250.stm
ANC election result under question now as Zuma may face new corruption charges.
15 - Will Desmond’s other titles be reflecting this new change in direction? Can we expect Scottish Readers Wives to come out for Wee Eck as well?
I can’t for the life of me remember what I said now, so whatever happens it’ll be a complete surprise. I doubt I’ll do as well as last year though.
Re. 22, I’m surprised that Vilsack doesn’t receive a mention. Richardson was good (in a waggish self-deprecating way) in the recent Democratic debate, but I read that Hillary will never forgive his joke about the White House furniture. Bayh comes over very well on TV. Obama would make sense from the unity candidate point of view, but there’s rather more bad blood between him and Hillary than there was between Reagan and George HW Bush in 1980 (even with Bush’s comment about ‘voodoo economics’.
As for Clegg’s statement that he doesn’t believe in God, I expect the next issue of the Eye will do something along the lines of ‘God doesn’t believe in Nick Clegg’.
Re 9, Marquee Mark “Benedict White, you seem to get by on about four hours sleep, so - you are Margaret Thatcher and I claim my fiver!”
Not my choice, I was on call and got called out!
re 17 even the vaguest connection with chemistry would tell you that to reverse the reaction carbon + oxygen = carbon dioxide requires the input of energy, and where does that energy come from? Well, probably at the moment from burning more carbon!
Re 13, Jonathan “Great to see Tory policy on coal. Dig up coal, burn it, capture the carbon, solidify it and bury it in the ground. Net output zero carbon, oh and zero enerrgy.”
Its called carbon capture, it is not our idea but there is a lot of coal about, and as odd as it may seem, it works! Don’t ask me why it is viable from an energy output point of view but it is.
I couldn’t let this pass, from the previous thread”
Roll on the secular state, like Turkey, where religion is kept out of the public domain and one group is not allowed to force their views on others. ”
So, why do you think the Turkish publisher of The God Delusion faces prosectuion for blasphmey?
Dunno, Sean (32). Lawyers out to make a quick buck perhas?
28. I think you’ll find that God voted for Huhne.
God has been a member for several years since I signed him up when canvassing. He’s usual very generous when it comes to buying raffle tickets at coffee mornings.
I did suggest that he stand for council but he dismissed that as “work of the devil”
When I asked him to comment on Clegg’s comments he said that he was too busy planning for his son’s forthcoming birthday.
Re 28, Richard (original) “As for Clegg’s statement that he doesn’t believe in God, I expect the next issue of the Eye will do something along the lines of ‘God doesn’t believe in Nick Clegg’.”
Its been done on my blog already
worst of both world in turkey - the ‘freedom’ to be secular is ‘upheld’ by the army and nationalists, and the freedom to actually speak out of turn on religion is restricted by fundamentalists.
Re 30, Chris A “re 17 even the vaguest connection with chemistry would tell you that to reverse the reaction carbon + oxygen = carbon dioxide requires the input of energy, and where does that energy come from? Well, probably at the moment from burning more carbon!”
You are right but the plan is not to store carbon, but carbon dioxide which can be done.
God wanted to vote for Simon Hughes.
re 37 yes I imaginged it was, but I was just poitning out the logical (and chemical) fallacy in 13.
It certainly seems to have a whole lot more going for it that carbon offsetting which is, I think, the biggest exercise in charlatanism ever invented.
God buys raffle tickets, does he? Is he on the electoral roll? And as Our Lord, where is he resident for tax purposes?
1 - since no one else has answered you, Alasdair, I will. Öpik is no longer the Wales and NI secretary. He was reshuffled to the Business, Enterprise and Tractor Production portfolio in the post-Brown era.
That happened on 3rd July, so the answer to that one was 184 days if you include the 3rd, but 183 complete days.
I wonder if Nick Clegg believes in Father Christmas.
Heard on the radio last night:
Have you noticed how Father Christmas isn’t very nice. He gives the rich kids really nice presents, but gives the poor kids cheap ones.
This proposal is rather draconian, surely?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7153358.stm
As PPS to the Energy Minister I follow the carbon capture issue pretty closely, and can summarise the issues at the risk of boring some of you. There’s a lot of interest in the subject, because we have masses of coal in Britain so if it were possible to use it without generating a lot of Co2 that would go a long way to resolving the energy issues of security of supply and environmental impact. There’s also a Labour political angle - we have a number of MPs from current and former coalfield areas who would be delighted. Because Polish coal is cheaper (mostly nearer the surface) it wouldn’t necessarily mean a huge rebirth of the British coal industry, but it would encourage a modest revival if only for national energy security reasons.
The problem is that there isn’t at present a working model that does the job at reasonable cost without, as Jonathan says, itself using up so much energy that it wasn’t worth doing. The Government has launched a competition to improve this situation: we’ll pay for a demonstration plant with the most convincing-looking technology, and we’ll see whether that resolves the dilemma.
A firm policy to do a lot of this is IMO premature - it may prove a workable route, but there is a fair way to go before we’ll know. I assume, politically, that it’s the counter to the Government’s embrace of offshore wind and, potentially, the Severn Barrage.
Re-reading 44, my first sentence sounds patronising - it wasn’t meant to be: what I meant is that some of you know this stuff already and others won’t want me rattling on about it. Sorry.
40 Christmas Islands, Baskerville.
42. Not since Toys R Us offered a store card. Poor kids get motorbikes and Playstation 3 (on 29.9% apr) while Tarquin has to make do with a free trade wooden puzzle and some eco-friendly bubble bath.
28 - Yes. Vilsack dropped out, and made great play of plugging hillary in Iowa, where he was Governor. However, if she doesn’t win Iowa off his endorsement, I don’t know how much sway he has.
Joke or no joke, Richardson is the best bet by far for VP. No Senator has been elected since Johnson - having Executive (esp Gubernatorial) experience will make that look more steady, combined with the fact he was a Cabinet secretary, an Ambassador to the UN, and negotiated with North Korea for GW Bush. Latino, without a Latino name is something of a holy grail in the politics of certain States. Any Democrat would do well to choose him.
I’m going to stake my reputation on the firm belief that the VP nominee will NOT be Obama (can be more visible and more active with another 8 years in the Senate), Edwards (not interested), Hillary (never, never, never), Gore (why would he do it again?), Bayh (another Senator, gives no Electoral College advantage).
To my mind, it’s either Clarke or Richardson or Gov Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania for Hillary’s VP choice. Obama could go for anyone, but probably an older governor (even Richardson - the Hispanic vote is less likely to turn out for an African American candidate otherwise). Obama and McCain are the favourites amongst Independent voters. If Obama won, and McCain was out after New Hampshire, I would quietly enquire about some long odds on McCain as Obama’s VP candidate - Obama is authentically anti-war, and always was, so can afford a hawk on the bottom of the ticket, especially one as well-respected and moderate as McCain.
35 - Benedict, you have a blog?!
44. Thanks for the explanation, but I fear you are missing the politics of Cameron’s coal-face environmentalism. Cameron is in China. China is the biggest generator of electricity from coal. Britain can make a lot of money from China if we can lead in clean-coal technology. Britain’s Tories are willing to work with China in our national economic interest.
43. If I buy a girlfriend dinner could that technically be claimed as such? Cops hanging round resturants on sting operations.
More seriously, something has to be done. Whilst I’m a believer that it should be legalised, very strictly controlled and liecensed if the crackdown route works, its worth a try.
[43] There’s a big push for it, from both evangelical Christians and feminists. In Sweden it’s legal to sell sexual favours but not to buy them; in the Republic of Ireland both are criminal offences.
43. I agree Sean. Surely the key focus should be is there exploitation and that probably comes down to who is being paid (or receiving some or all of the money somehow). Surprised this is illegal in Sweden. I wonder if it is actually more complicated than that in Sweden
50, 51 I think it should be legalised (strictly speaking, prostitution isn’t an offence, but it almost is), licensed and controlled. Not only do I think there are problems with definition, with this proposal, I just think at a basic level it is unjust that someone should face prosecution for paying someone else for sex.
Re 39, Chrs A, “re 37 yes I imaginged it was, but I was just poitning out the logical (and chemical) fallacy in 13.”
Well, Jonathan is Labour, so don’t be too hard on him :0
“It certainly seems to have a whole lot more going for it that carbon offsetting which is, I think, the biggest exercise in charlatanism ever invented. ”
Well, yes though solar desalination to irrigate the vast (and hot) deserts dotted around the world would be my favourite as it would provide employment in Africa, and vast amounts fuels for the rest of us (and as a spin lots of electricity).
47.
I was anticipating that post
Re 42, KJH “Have you noticed how Father Christmas isn’t very nice. He gives the rich kids really nice presents, but gives the poor kids cheap ones.”
re 50 - in days of yore even smiling at another man (if you were male of course), or giving him your address could end with you up before the magistrates on a charge of importuning for immoral purposes, so you can rest assured that if this law is introduced it will be abused.
43: She also seems to think that only women can be prostitutes.
Re 43, Sean Fear “This proposal is rather draconian, surely?”
Yes, but that is Harriet for you. This proposal is rather draconian, surely? Daft as a brush as well.
43 ” A big debate is needed.’ Translation: We will ram this through as the new relaunch of the Brownian leadership.
43. Remember when shops couldn’t sell stuff on a Sunday morning - some got round it, I recall, by selling onions (they were legal) for various prices with ‘free gifts’.
So, buy an onion for 100 pounds and get a free .. whatever ..
53 - maybe Nick Clegg will say the same thing today, Sean - that would be even braver!
It has been anticipated that there will be another re-laucnh in the new year, somehow I doubt it will work.
Re 48, Morus “35 - Benedict, you have a blog?! ;)”
Might ‘ave. Whos askin’?
50
If you remove the human trafficing / forced elemement from the debate,then surely whether or not a woman or a man of their own free will, wants to sell themselves for sex is entirely their own descision.
57, as with the law outlawing homosexuality, it seems that one aspect of a law making it illegal to pay for sex would be that people who did so could be blackmailed with impunity.
53. Agree again with all that.
Many many years ago I got lost in London. I stopped my car and was looking at my map. There was a knock on my window which really made me jump. Two ladies were looking in. I know this is really going to be difficult to believe but I assumed they were lost or something so I wound down the window to see what they wanted.
Needless to say the conversation went downhill very rapidly and they became somewhat abusive and a quick get away was necessary.
I just wonder how close I came to being done for kerb crawling!
58. Thats covered in teh document released today. Males in the job will have to wear womens’ clothes…its buried in 3.8.1 of the consultation document released by Harman….
Just popped back after meetings. Clearly, I was having a bit of fun in post 13 about carbon.
Whilst coal might be the answer to stop our dependence on middle-east oil and might be a cheap alternative to oil in the short term. I am sorry, but if coal is THE answer to long term low C02 energy I’d be very, very surprised.
Much better off spending money on energy efficiency and renewable. Although I can’t see the Tories building wind farms in rural safe seats!!
http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/en/asia-energy-revolution/dirty-energy/clean-coal-myth
For the coming year’s competition may I suggest one change that the range of points awarded for predicting council seats be made on the basis of 1 point lost per seat (or better still 1 point per 25) and not 10 points lost per council seat.
It is easier to get right the change in assembly seats as the movements are generally within 10. For council seats the movements are in the hundreds.
Yes I did under forecast the loss of LD seats at -100 and not the -300 that actually happened. I must have been paying too much attention to the forecasts of Mark Senior!
67
Hmmm, you should get out more!
The most efficient way of using coal is to convert it to gas.
One of the ways of preserving gas in the North Sea would be to use it for domestic use only.
Industrial customers, (power stations etc) would have their own pipeline system, along which coal/gas would be transmitted.
Westfield in Fife, (once a BGC site) has been in the forefront of conversion technology, SNG (Synthetic Natural Gas etc) synthetic natural gas is of course an oxymoron, if its natural it can’t be synthetic.
http://www.globalenergyinc.com/westfield
CO2 could be pumped back into depleted fields in the North Sea.
Regarding Harperson pushing for illegalisation of payment for sex. It is an odd world that we are in where the Women’s Institute wants it legalised, but a prominent member of the chattering classes wants the laws made more punitive.
Of course the reason for the increase is the slave trade in immigrants for the purpose of prostitution. Legalisation would in the view of the WI decrease the slave trade.
Of course, if Harriet bans men buying sex here, it is going to give a vast leg-up to leg-over tourism. Punters will have to go to at least France, although I suspect she will try to make it a Euro-initiative. This will be very bad for greenhouse gases, as they all then head over to the Best Little Whore-house in Texas or wherever.
If we had effective border controls, those thousands of Albanian sex workers might not be here in the first place… Whatever happened to British sex jobs for British sex workers?
Morus - To tidy up a bit of unfinished from yesterday….
The New Sea Lock was in a cul de sac facing Bute Town Police Station. I’d be surprised if both are not still there. The pub stayed open pretty much all night, but you had to be in there by ten o’clock if you intended to stay after hours. The front door would be locked about 10.15pm and after that only the police and close friends of the publican were allowed in.
As you probably know, in those days Bute Town was extremely ‘colorful’, the population comprising largely of crooks, drug addicts, prostitutes and students. The New Sea Lock was very popular with students because the high police ratio amongst its clientele made trouble unlikely.
The area is much changed now of course and I doubt if my favorite venue, The Casablanca, still survives. It was obviously named after the film, but was infinitely more full of atmosphere and danger than Rik’s Bar. It was the kind of place where you bought your drink, listened quietly to the music and, if you knew what was good for you, treated everybody with maximum respect.
I assume my former residence on Windsor Esplanade must have been long-since gentrified. I understand that Shirley Bassey used to live, but she moved out before I moved in. Shame. I kind of liked her.
72: If the problem is trafficking why not hit the traffickers, or is that far too simple a solution?
74
If its trafficking that’s the issue then that’s already covered by law,I suspect it’s Harperson just trying to grab the headlines and deflect attention from her own issues regarding the illegal contributions to her campaign.
Any law to try and stop prostitution would be totally unenforceable as has been the case in the USA that also tried to make it illegal.
74 No, it’s far too difficult, Ralph, and there are no votes in it. Harman’s proposals will achieve nothing and may even make matters worse, but she will create the illusion of caring and doing something and, she hopes, win some votes.
Re 76, Peter the Punter “74 No, it’s far too difficult, Ralph, and there are no votes in it. Harman’s proposals will achieve nothing and may even make matters worse, but she will create the illusion of caring and doing something and, she hopes, win some votes.”
Obviously you are a fellow Harperson fan
74 Catch a traffiker = 1 solved crime and hundreds of police hours.
Catch 100 people using a mobile phone in the car = 100 crimes solved.
For the Chief of police it is a “why do the hard stuff, when your bonus can be done through easy choices”
73 - PtP - ‘Colourful’ is a lovely eupehmism! Butetown could be downright scary if you got lost down the wrong street! Along with Newtown, it is one of the best and most interesting areas in the country for its history of immigration and integration. Although it is a lot smarter now, a lot of the character has been lost too.
My regular pubs were the Horse & Groom on Womanby St, the Goat Major on St Mary’s street, and the Cardiff Arms itself. Two out of three still standing is good, but the pace of change in the city is frightening. I’m going back to visit family there over Christmas, and to see how much I still remember.
Maybe, come the next Welsh Assembly/Senedd Elections, we should have a pb.com gathering in the Reverend Eli Jenkins in Cardiff Bay?
76. She may also create disquiet in the Tories who may want to object to this for being unenforceable and possibly not worthwhile. However, leadership will push for going along with the plans so as not to appear like a bunch of middle aged men encouraging curb crawling and not protecting women. In the end it will be a dog’s breakfast piece of legislation, will have minimal impact and will be par for the course.
75 to 78: It’s a sign of how bad things have got that the consensus opinion is that this is a stunt.
Perhaps we’re reaching the ‘whatever the government do people will think badly of them’ tipping point. Or it could just be that we don’t like Harperson.
England seem to have recovered a bit but were 33 for 6 earlier. What is going on.
Morus, did you get my emails OK? - thanks.
44. Nick P why is it we never hear the Government or any other politician promoting Geothermal heat & power exchange, either domestically or as part of the national grid?
Matthew Parris wrote about his adoption of this technology last weekend.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article3054310.ece
It seems to me that it could prove a major cost saving technology for a good proportion of the population and given the potential reliability, consistency and abundance of supply why isn’t it being promoted?
The big problems with prostitution, trafficking, slavery, drugs, gambling, etc etc is usually organised crime. Organised crime can only get involved when politicians pass laws making end usage of whatever it maybe illegal. We go around this same mistake time and time again because it is a vote winner to come down hard on stuff that is considered morally wrong. It would be far better not to make stuff illegal but put in strong controls as per Sean’s post in 53. This has many benefits. It will limit the opportunity for pimps and pushers, the health of prostitutes and drug users would improve because they don’t have to act illegally, street crime would reduce because people will not be driven into it in desperation and probably less people would become prostitutes or drug users.
Passing the laws politicians pass on these activities are meat and drink to organised crime.
I note that the posts on this haven’t brought in any political party arguments, which is good and I don’t want to spoil that, but I feel I should note how Conservatives and Labour have consistently attacked very hard the LDs as being soft on these topics for advocating these sort of ideas which is a shame.
It is also worth noting that the posters on this site haven’t done so regardless of their political views, which I guess shows us lot are a lot more enlightened.
11.
Edwards has virtually no chance of becoming VP. My picks are (for the Democrats) Webb, Warner, Bloomberg, Sibelius, Napolitano (for the GOP) Lieberman, Powell, Huckabee, Sanford, Palin, McCain.
83 - Double Carpet: Sorry - only just checked my e-mail! Entirely agree about checking first before doing the feasibility study - can I leave that with you? I can’t open the attachments where I am working at the moment, so will review the election game and buy my season ticket when I get back to London.
Merry Christmas, and I’ll see you in the New Year!
Brown was amazing yesterday.
LAB GAIN Broxbourne!
Tories less than 50 seats, complete LD wipeout!
More cats in Westminster than Cons!
77 she will create the illusion of caring and doing something
What a pithy and apt description of New Labour policy making Benedict.
88. Ave it will be pleased. Once again Labour steal the Conservatives clothes!
Oh please, very clever. If you keep saying it long enough someone might believe it one day.
I for one would much rather back the party that brought in the Winter fuel allowance than the self-styled “nasty party” that introduced VAT on fuel.
88: ‘LAB GAIN Broxbourne!’
From themselves, how novel.
85 Interesting that on prostitution LDs and Conservatives are closer and Labour are the party left outside.
Add to ID Cards, 42 days, Localism/Direct Democracy…. it is a growing list. With Ming gone the possibility of a coalition (due to hung parliament) around a group of shared interests does seem more viable than a year ago.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7153480.stm
So where do we get the money to meet the overshoot? More borrowing, higher taxes? Or cutting spending?
Re 89, Kingbongo, “What a pithy and apt description of New Labour policy making Benedict.”
To be fair the good bit was a quote from Peter the Punter, but as he appears not to be looking I will of course take the credit
Re 91, Jonathan “Oh please, very clever. If you keep saying it long enough someone might believe it one day.”
Which post are you referring to?
86 - Webb is still very junior - I don’t think he shores up the ticket, and he can be much more active on the Hill. MArk Warner is an interesting call for the Dems, but he has indicated he is going to run for the Senate instead.
Huckabee as Giuliani’s VP would explain their mutual non-agression pact, Powell would be a plus for any candidate, and Lieberman would go with McCain if asked, but the long shot is actually Jeb Bush. He is still polling at around 60% favourable in Florida, and is liked amongst GOP voters in the panhandle. He secures key states that someone like Romney or Giuliani might not otherwise win. If he had any other surname, he would be a shoo in…
91 - Former Labour Parliamentary candidate supports Labour party. And the mountains roared (though shame about the wobbles on Gordon a couple of days ago: letting the side down a bit there, old boy).
92. Unless I’m missing something, Broxbourne is pretty solidly Tory (as opposed to Nick P’s Broxtowe).
94
More borrowing of course.
” Many many years ago I got lost in London. I stopped my car and was looking at my map. There was a knock on my window which really made me jump. Two ladies were looking in. I know this is really going to be difficult to believe but I assumed they were lost or something so I wound down the window to see what they wanted.
Needless to say the conversation went downhill very rapidly and they became somewhat abusive and a quick get away was necessary.
I just wonder how close I came to being done for kerb crawling! ”
Are you an MP? - if not, you should be !
98 Broxboune is so right wing that the BNP polled more votes in the borough this year than Labour did (although both were a long way behind the Conservatives).
And a Merry Christmas to you too John0!!
Sorry, I just a get a bit bored with the silly overblown Labour/Tory/LD do this/never do this stuff that can’t be backed up with a single fact. Such talk is very, very cheap.
As for my comments on Brown. I stand by the opinion that he needs to make a strong impact early in 2008 or there will be momentum for a change. I still believe that Brown is the best PM on offer by far in your party or mine. But it is time for him and the cabinet to deliver.
I agree with Blair parting quote “If we can’t take this lot apart in the next few years we shouldn’t be in the business of politics at all”. The Tories are much, much better than they were. That is a good thing. But if Labour have a bad 2008, we’ll only have ourselves to blame.
Will be interesting to see the political choices Cameron makes as the election approaches. He can’t please everyone.
99. Has Brown officailly abandoned his ‘golden rule’ I thought he was theoretically still bound by it, or the revised verions of it. It is hard to see that he leagthen the business cycle again and there can’t be that much more scope to move things off balance sheet.
The reality is he is going to be forced to cut spending and probably raise taxes (tighted fiscal policy) at the very moment we are heading into recssion. The automatic stabilisers of higher expenditue and lower tax revenues leading to an easing in fiscal policy are not gion to kick in if he decided to keep to his ‘rule’.
This could be pretty muc disastrous for Labour as the public sector remains there last real well spring of support and they are going to have to continue giving them real terms pay cuts and cut back on some programs.
WRT the BNP split, I see that the rebel faction have taken to nicknaming Mark Collett (the star of “Young Nazi and Proud”) as “Griffin’s Gaveston”, a fairly common accusation (along with being a mole for the State or Searchlight) in far right circles.
103. In summary: Outlook crappy.
jsfl: see
http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/sources/renewables/explained/geothermal/page17506.html
for the state of play on geothermal - though you can get a much more detailed account if you write to Malcolm Wicks through your MP. Without hijacking the thread with too much on this, there are groups who feel that there is only one obvious answer to energy problems, but we feel that the science and economics are not as clear-cut as that, and the only safe approach is to encourage a range of different technologies to produce a basket of different sources.
Amused to see that kjh’s comment at 85
“I note that the posts on this haven’t brought in any political party arguments, which is good” only lasted until the second half of the sentence, closely followed by 89 and 93 (which seems to contradict 85 that it claims to support, but perhaps I’m reading too quickly).
O/T, thanks to Robert Waller for his friendly comments in Iain Dale’s interview on E Mids marginals, and congratulations on your encyclopaedic knowledge of all our wards!
100 Reminds me of a good drink drive story (very appropriate at this timne of year) a a senior businessman I know had driven to Glasgow a few years ago in his very large Bentley and attended a big works dinner.
Tired and emotional, driving himself back to his hotel in his warm and cosseting car at about 1.00 am he drifted off asleep while stationary at a very slow set of traffic lights.
We was sharply woken from his momentary slumber by a black gloved hand knocking at the drivers window. He slid it down to see a Glaswegian police sargeant who nodded at the traffic lights in front of him and said:
“Whats the matter sir, is there no colour you like?”
re 84 not only not being promoted, but the whole thrust of Paris’s piece was that it is being actively obstructed at the moment by the planning process.
79 Morus
As PB Party Organiser, I am only too conscious of London bias, but the trouble is that the Capital is really the only practical venue for the greater number. I have occasionally floated the idea of a sattelite Party, say in Birmingham or Manchester, but the idea hasn’t caught on. Cardiff though would be a great place. I’d even make my way up there for that one, on condition I could stay in The Angel Hotel and have a reckless night in Bute Town.
Perhaps you could be encouraged to organise something?
103
‘The reality is he is going to be forced to cut spending and probably raise taxes (tighted fiscal policy) at the very moment we are heading into recssion.’
Why would he do this when he can just do what he normally does in these situations and simply move the goalposts?
110. They’ll be off the pitch shortly….
109 - I think it right and proper that the party in New Year be in London as planned, but I would gladly organise a Cardiff trip for us whenever people feel is appropriate. There are some good Welsh political bloggers we should invite too. Leighton Andrews AM/AC and Nick Bourne AM/AC are both pretty good, and Plaid Cymru are also taking t’internet seriously.
I’ll take a straw poll when we’re at the NLC.
84 44
The Government has already screwed up carbon capture in case you forget.
May 23 2007
BP has abandoned plans for a £500m UK carbon capture power plant at Peterhead in Aberdeenshire, it has emerged.
The energy company said the decision was a major disappointment but blamed Westminster delays over support.
About 1,000 jobs were expected to be created if the green project was ultimately given the go-ahead.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/6685345.stm
111
Good one!
Must be his only constraint.
112 Thanks Morus. I’ll put that one in the ‘work in progres’ tray.
113 “I’ll take a straw poll when we’re at the NLC.”
Has a date been chosen yet?
106 Nick - When I refer to other posts I can only be held responsible for comments refering to posts made before mind not ones after. I haven’t got the crystal ball warmed up yet.
I did also start the 2nd senetence with a ‘but’, doesn’t a ‘but’ or ‘however’ tend to mean you are going to say something opposite to the first part of the sentence deliberately so I don’t think I was being hypocritical.
I was also complimentary to the posters here who haven’t gone down that line of argument. I also think the point is well made in that we have taken a lot of unfair flack, particularly in by elections for being ’soft on …’ when clearly supporters of all parties here support a more sensible approach to these problems (as I’m sure you do?)
BBC ticker says Chris Huhne has been given the Home affairs brief.
107
An old one but it really made me laugh.
Ed Davey at Foreign Affairs. Curiouser and curiouser…
Huhne at Home affairs is a bit of a no brainer bur Davey strikes me as the Ed Balls of the lib dems, nobody noticed Michael Moore much though so he mightn’t do much damage.
121 - Davey is a very hard working MP… relatively competent on the media too, but I never imagined him as the foreign affairs spokesman. Looks like there’s not much room for Ming in Nick’s “Cabinet”, despite the fact that he owes his position to his timely sword-falling antics.
It’s all down to the economy, stupid:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62e6b5be-aeec-11dc-880f-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
…..and silly old Gordon has gone and bugg@red it up right and proper!
122 - my comparison was because I thought he would be best in a high profile backroom job, he’s an ummer and errer and has a Balls-like ability to seem panicked.
30: I may be wrong, but your confusion may stem from a lot of lazy journalism, talk of ‘carbon emissions’ and ‘carbon capture’ when they mean ‘carbon dioxide’ and manifestly not carbon. And Jonathan at 13 is completely wrong, or course the tories won’t be looking to turn CO2 back to carbon :roll:. If they could do that they might as well make diamonds*!
A it is worrying to see the PPS to the energy minister saying Co2 and not CO2, since Co is cobalt…
(As I have a doctorate in chemistry the preponderance of everything from utter drivel to minor lazy wrongness on these subjects does annoy me perhaps a little too much than is healthy - sorry!)
* pure carbon, just realised some may not know this.
102 Anatole Kaletsky’s column in the Times today sums up the Brown problem pretty well I think. I remain deeply unconvinced that Labour can recover under him.
Good afternoon everyone , have we all finished our Xmas shopping ?
The data for the last Populus poll is now online . It is now possible to compare the raw unweighted data for all the pollsters latest polls . These should generally agree within M of E as the figures are prior to individual companies applying their different weightings . The results are interesting IMHO .
Mori FTF Con 26.0% Lab 24.1% LibDem 9.1% Others 6.4% D/Ketc 34.4%
Mori Tel Con 24.0% Lab 22.0% LibDem 9.3% Others 7.1% D/Ketc 37.6%
Populus. Con 24.8% Lab 22.3% LibDem 9.4% Others 8.1% D/Ketc 35.4%
ComRes.. Con 27.2% Lab 19.3% LibDem 11.3% Other 9.4% D/Ketc 32.8%
ICM….. Con 26.8% Lab 20.9% LibDem 12.1% Other 6.9% D/Ketc 33.3%
Reasonably consistent results within acceptable M of E
Then we come to Yougov - their last 2 polls
DailyT Con 36.0% Lab 25.0% LibDem 10.0% Other 8.0% D/Ketc 21.0%
Sun/T. Con 36.9% Lab 24.1% LibDem. 9.6% Other 6.9% D/Ketc 22.5%
It is quite clear that the Yougov panel responses are not a representative sample of the country as a whole with a much lower % of Don’t Knows/Won’t Votes ( ? more politically interested than the country as a whole ? ) and a much higher % of Conservatives . Even the weighting adjustment which takes account of the higher number of AB’s in London and the South East in the panel responses only reduces the Conservative % to around 34% .
Huhne, Cable and Davey look like they are in the top 3 LD positions. No complaints here, they are all highly capable and effective communicators.
I recommend Mark Littlewood on BBC site as required reading for Lib Dems
126 “If they could do that they might as well make diamonds!”
I’m a big fan of buckminsterfullerene myself….
92. You some kind of idiot? Or LD? :D:D
LAB GAIN Broxbourne!
Recount in Witney!!!!!
More details on the Beeb:
Ming to Foreign Affairs Select COmmittee
Teather to Business
Baker to Transport
Kramer to Families
Webb to Environment
Kennedy part time on Europe?
131 - Not as much as an idiot as you it seems…
OK, what’s with the whole Broxbourne thing??? Somebody explain please…..
Mark Senior,
You have not taken into account the results of the Camberwick Green council by-election
Mr Windy Miller (Lib Dem) …….301
Mr Chippy Minton (Labour) ………2
Captain Slack (Conservative)…….1
As you often tell us, when real votes are cast for real people, the Lib Dems do much better. This is a much more accurate guide to what will happen in the general election than any poll. Note too that Plaid Cymru and the SNP failed to field any candidates, so a nationalist collapse is imminent.
For the first time in 50 years, the Lib Dems now hold the Camberwick Green, Trumpton and Chigwell (following the mass defection of the Conservative group) Town Councils.
135 It is not surprising Plaid failed to field a candidate , they do not seem to contest elections in Wales anymore let alone Camberwick Green .
David Cameron will be disappointed that, with his own windmill thing going on, he couldn’t persuade Windy Miller into his big tent.
Lib Dem new shadow cabinet at http://www.libdems.org.uk/party/people/spokes.html
chigwell or chigley? can robert waller confirm?
It looks like a very strong Shadow Cabinet that Nick Clegg has put together.
And the fact that both Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell are playing important roles on the political stage, but in a national rather than partisan sense, speaks volumes for the wealth of talent on the Lib Dem benches.
127: And yet Mark YouGov’s figures aren’t markably out of step with the other pollsters, unlike ICM.
134: I misread something and it apparently makes me an idiot or a Lib Dem.
I don’t think you are a Lib Dem, Ralph…..
Since you asked…..
139 - That should be Chigley, although boundary changes have added some Trumpton wards making it more of a marginal. Balamory looks set to remain a lib dem stronghold at the next election and Stackton Tressel similarly for the tories. Labour will hope to hold onto Royston Vasey but the recent scandals may put paid to that.
142: So not an idiot either then
135, 143 Children’s TV has been solidly for the LibDems, ever since Baby Woodentop ran for as the Mayoral Candidate.
But I believe Basil Brush was a stauch Thatcerite. And Ivor the Engine’s sympathies for Plaid Cymru will come has no surprise.
125 JonC of course I know that that the Tories are not proposing to create carbon, graphite, diamonds, nanotubes - whatever.
But they ARE proposing to pump CO2 into the ground and create a timebomb and monitoring legacy for generations to come. 
Obviously this is not a sane plan? Burning more coal is an Orwellian solution to reducing our carbon footprint.
140 Tressage “It looks like a very strong Shadow Cabinet that Nick Clegg has put together.”
Indeed it does, except for those muppets Opik and Featherstone.
But EVERY party has muppets in high places.
Afternoon all…
“Iron Gordon vs the Global Financial Meltdown”
Where does the PM’s thrilling new role leave his Chancellor, asks our Westminster insider
Gordon Brown has ordered his Cabinet ministers to ‘hit the ground running’ with a series of initiatives in the New Year to show his administration has not run out of ideas.”
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?storyID=10742
143 Royston Vaizey is surely classic BNP territory?
The League of Gentlemen was filmed a short walk from my home town in the constituency of High Peak, hence a marginal next time!
149 Mickey would vote Labour