Tories lead down to 5% with ICM (revised story)
December 21st, 2007-
So it’s only five Grumpy Gordons
There’s been a dramatic improvement in Labour’s polling position according to the Guardian’s December poll which is due to be published tomorrow. The shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster CON 39% (-2): LAB 34% (+4) LD 18% (-1).
For both the Tories and the Lib Dems under their new leader these figures will be enormously disappointing. Nick Clegg must have been hoping for some sort of boost following his succession to the top job.
There is little doubt that this is a superb Christmas present for Gordon Brown. It shows an amazing recovery in a very short time and perhaps suggests that a Tory government is not as inevitable as other surveys have suggested.
What is really interesting is that many people had expected a fall-off in Tory support with the installation of Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader. The fact that this has not happened makes this even more sensational.
My only caveat about this survey is that the fieldwork was held over so that they could take into account the new Lib Dem leader. The problem is that polls taken when a lot of people are on holiday have a habit of being out of line.
Mike Smithson
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I guess none of us will know what it said then.
now we know why a blank cheque was given to the wreck
Actually, Timothy of the zebras posted the link, and it’s here:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,2231294,00.html
which seems to me despite the spin to be good news for Labour - the Tory lead is halved, Cameron and Brown are tied for best PM, and Labour is close to its GE level again. The stuff about regions is based on polling different polls over since the non-election, which like all regional breakdowns is interesting but statistically dodgy (because no one poll adjusts its regional suibsamples for population balance, and adding them together doesn’t either).
In fact I think it’s a little TOO good for Labour - I’ve been expected us to catch up a bit, but not that much.
…expecting… even - typing too quickly!
I think i sort of expected Labour to come back a bit, the last week has been a moderate improvement. It may just be a rogue poll though.
it’s just a rogue.
Mike - your thread appears to be at odds with
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2231109,00.html
or is it me?
5 Are these now the accurate numbers? Let’s not forget please that punters are betting real money on the basis of info provided on this site.
7 - The poll gives the Tories a solid 12-point lead - on 43% (as they were last month) to Labour’s 31% (down one point).
I continue to be struck by how uncertain everything is at the moment, the polls are so volatile.
re 9. I made that mistake at first. That story relates to this morning’s YouGov poll. This is the link to the latest ICM poll -
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,2231294,00.html
7 - That’s a Guardian Unlimited story about the Yougov poll, reported on by Mike in an earlier thread.
9 i think that is on a regional level, taken over a longer period of time
11,12 - thanks -sorry
I never take notice of, or comment on, opinion polls………
Good grief! Is it 5% or 12% or somewhere in between?
My only caveat about this survey is that the fieldwork was held over so that they could take into account the new Lib Dem leader. The problem is that polls taken when a lot of people are on holiday have a habit of being out of line.
9 - yes I see,getting my yougov’s mixed up with my icm’s
16-5%
Can we have our Gloomy Gordons back now please, Mike?
Just keep up the trend for a couple of months and we can call a snap election, eh?
Don’t say that, Nick. The Tories will all go out on an Ashcroft-led spending spree again…..
Well, I won’t comment much until we have some more polls in mid January, out of the holiday season. The same applies to the Yougov poll.
Hung Parliament here we come!
A central probabilistic forecast, based on average LD incumbency and a 15 Nats rise is…
Lab(+SDLP) 288
Con 282
LD 45
Nats 17
Oth 2
NI 11 (SF abstain)
LDs Kingmakers…
If the regional figures are anything like accurate, the Tories are heading for a massive win, Broxtowe to be gained by 5000 odd.
20 No longer gloomy but gay Gordons methinks.
3. which seems to me despite the spin to be good news for Labour
Naughty naught Mr Palmer, not comparing like for like!
Given the last ICM Guardian poll was out of step with others around it this seems to be in line with that poll to some extent.
Compared with last months ICM Guardian poll. The headline figures are:
Con 39 (+2)
Lab 34 (+3)
LD 18 (-3)
Interesting that in between there was an ICM poll in the NOTW.
Con 41
Lab 30
LD 19
There seems to be something a wee bit odd about all of this?
15. LOLOLOL!!!
The comeback starts today!!!!
LAB gain Folkestone and Hythe!!!!!
Recount in Wyre Forest!!!!!!!!!
Con down to
25 Well Nick Palmer at post # 21 doesn’t appear perturbed. In fact he is relishing a General Election.
Oh,and repeated from last thread:
On a side note I hear that this story may make the TV soon:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/12/donorgate-jane-hogarth-and-courtney.html
Though with some additional details possibly which I would think thrice about publishing.
17: To be fair, Mike, the sampling was on much the same dates as YouGov. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between the two.
Political makeup after 2009/10:-
LAB:- 569
Cats:- 100
Tories:- 44
LDs:- 1 (Teather)
Nats:- WHO CARES LOL
28 - i hate all this silly posting.
33.
Ave it 07 gains maturity!!!!
34 hehehehe
33 I know what you mean Ave it 07.
Nick 31. No - the YouGov poll took place from Monday to Wednesday with, as is usual, more than 50% of the response coming on the first day. The ICM poll started on Tuesday, probably in the afternoon and carried on through Wednesday - so the vast bulk of the interviews probably took place after the Clegg news.
This is fast moving and I might be wrong.
Nick Palmer, things have certainly calmed down on the blatant-evidence-of-incompetence front, so the poll has moved back to what we might consider to be the “underlying state of play”. The question is: What is likely to happen over the next couple of years?
I can see that you regard the recent couple of months to be highly anomalous. Personally I see no evidence that Brown is capable of regaining the political initiative. Such anomalies seem likely to happen again and again, with the underlying position deteriorating slightly each time.
What the regional breakdown shows, particularly the change compared to the last breakdown, is that if Labour are unpopular enough, voters in the North will switch to the Tories. This strikes me as something new for the last decade and a half or so, and not a good sign for Labour prospects.
I would have thought that the change would be relatively free of sample-induced bias, though its precise magnitude should not necessarily be relied upon.
36. LOL
34 Ave it 07 gains respect as he leaves active politics.
36 - the voice of reason. Will you let ‘lab GAIN’ in the pb party?
Come on Mike, you can and have done far better than that with photographs of Brown, although credit is due to you for featuring the greasy kiss curl.
Idle speculation but what would happen to Cameron if Labour gained the lead in the polls… a second Brown bounce would probably spell the end for him. I don’t think this is a likely situation. This is only one poll. But what if…
I think its important to note that the regional analysis is a cumulative poll from those taken since 10th October until the present date, so whilst it can indicate something about the trends since that date I don’t think it shows what the real current regional position is, especially as it is not using a similar cumulative figure to compare against.
Hmm, I don’t think this is especially good news for Labour. Better than having another whopping Tory lead but not that good given it is going against the trend.
Nick, why don’t Labour just call an election for May or whatever next year - why are you so scared of facing the public? If you’ve done a poor job as MP you have only yourself to blame.
22: Hey, the balance of payments needs a boost - an influx of capital from Belize will be very useful.
25: Yes, well, come to Broxtowe and see if you can detect any Conservative activity whatever…
However, note the smiley at 21 - I’m pleased, not insane.
Is it me or what? The Guardian piece starts off by saying how much better the Tories are doing in the North and Midlands, yet their poll lead is down appreciably. My head hurts.
46 - we’ve won broxtowe and are now moving onto nottingham north lol
45. that’s ridiculous. Otherwise you would be claiming that any government should be having constant elections otherwise they are afraid of the public. Labour got a mandate in 2005 for 4 to 5 years.
Thank you, Mike, for restoring the Grumpy Gordons. I greatly prefer them to the same number of smirking Camerons.
“But what if…”
What if Labour were reduced to less than 30% - would Brown be forced out?
I’m quite open to the possibility of Labour gaining the lead again for a period of time, however improbable it may seem at the moment, but I doubt Cameron would be forced out just because of a few polls. We are still probably years away from an election. Having a 10% lead is no good until election day. The only chance of a forced leadership election would be if Labour had a sustained lead that the Tories couldn’t shift.
Though it’s worth noting that most people who could credibly replace Cameron don’t want to kick him out. David Davis is often regarded as the “reactionaries’ hero” but he is actually very loyal to Cameron and would oppose an action to remove him.
Mmmm. This poll looks a little bit more realistic. Another interpretation might be people feeling more charitable as we get closer to Christmas. Let’s see what the next poll says; but I think Brown will feel a little better and Clegg will be relaxed about 18% in the mid-term.
Cameron will be as worried about the volatility of the electorate. His big worry is May 1st. If the Tories fall back, which is possible, given that 2004 was quite good for them, things could still go pear shaped for him. And let’s be frank, if you were Cameron would you want to bet your political future on Boris?
Interesting. As the less excitable of us have suspected, things seems to be calming down. We have a long way to go before the next election and there will be many twists & turns of fortune along the way. It’s looking closer than for many many years but Labour are still very much in the game. I’d have to bet on a hung parliament at this point.
49.
G, we elect a government to govern, not pull snap elections when they think they can sneak a larger majority/put off a competitive contest for a few years. If Labour have a mandate to govern for 4-5 years, then they should govern for 4-5 years.
48. LOLOLOL
All Tories have been forced out of Broxtowe!
Nick Palmer has started campaigning in Peterborough because Broxtowe is so safe!!!!
Lab GAIN the UK!!!!!
49. Yes - I bet a fair chunk of the people who voted for them then feel pretty foolish now.
56. yeah i suspect they do. You can attacks them on their governance but not their right to govern.
To give a serious response to Timothy’s points: it’s a bit difficult to judge without the details - Glover’s article is irritatingly selective, sometimes comparing with a year ago, sometimes with August, sometimes giving two parties’ share but not the others. But the technical point about regional samples is similar to the one Mike often makes about ‘underlying questions’ (such as ‘best leader’) - they don’t have the usual adjustments. In a national poll, the company will attempt to get a similar number of men and women, a range of income groups, and so on. But it becomes impossibly complex to do this for regions too, so they don’t bother, and a sample for Scotland may have too many ABCs or too many over-65s, etc. If you look at any of the polling companies’ regional figures over a 6-month period, you’ll find apparently perplexing swings back and forth, and occasionally bizarre results, e.g. no BNP supporters whatever in the Southwest. That’s also why constituency polls are unreliable.
Have the last two months been anomalous? Yes and no. Any third-term government faces ongoing scepticism - are you lot stil there? Why haven’t you fixed everything yet? That won’t go away. But the media narrative was “Brown walks on water” for a while, and now it’s been “Brown slumps to new low” for a while. There will be other narratives over the next couple of years, and some of them will be less helpful to the Tories. I don’t pretend to know what will happen - I genuinely think it’s quite open.
Is the Raj at 54 the same as the Raj as 45, since they seem to comletely disagree?
Gollop at 56: on the evidence of this poll, 34% of the 36% who voted Labour plan to do so again (though of course there is some switching both ways underlying that).
re 58. Exactly Nick - that’s why I always say that the only numbers to focus on should be the voting intention ones. There is a consistenty about how they are compiled and you can carry out comparisons.
This is a very good poll for Labour and bad one for the other two parties.
Forgot the floss about the regional trends.
Something else we’ve not considered - if there was in fact a shift to Labour betweeen the YouGov poll and ICM, what caused it? Presumably the pension fund rescue?
The measure of Labour’s predicament is that a possibly rogue poll, in their favour, which still shows them 5 points behind, and reveals a Tory surge in the North, has them Turning Japanese.
I think Mike should also calm down. “Enormously disappointing”? “truly dramatic”?
Too much mulled wine, Mister Smithson?
Are “Ave it 2007/8″ and “LabGain” the new web personnae of “Jack W”? When will a LD equivalent start posting?
60 So Mike, are you now selling your Tory GE seat bets?
63 - er ‘Mark Senior’?
Mike are you having a pop at Clegg already about not uping the poll ratings. Its only been 3 days man, not even Jesus worked that quick at this time of year.
I would suggest you give him a bit of time and really see what he can/will do. Your dislike for him sees to be leading you in to the land of Steve Wonder!!
Shows how far the goalposts have moved that a 5 point deficit is considered “very good” for Labour!
55 the Alba MP3 player is never going to match the iPod for design quality, build quality or attractiveness to consumers. You are in the same position vis a vis our beloved Ave It.
You are a Berni Inn prawn cocktail, a postcard of Van Gogh’s Sunflowers, a bottle of English-brewed Beck’s Bier.
To call you a pale imitation would not just be an overly generous compliment it would be a betrayal of the English language, which is deficient in adjectives to fully convey the lack of wit, generosity of spirit and joie de vivre of your posts in comparison to the original.
You are not a pastiche as a pastiche requires a certain amount of invention and original thought; you are not a copy as a copy requires something more than a tangential relationship to the original.
This leaves only possibility - you are Ave It’s evil untalented leftie younger sister who suffers from a politically incontinent form of Electra Complex.
Ave It’s posts have earned a certain respect for the underlying strength of analysis and contribution to betting information - your posts are just derivative (never a compliment) and lacking in betting info.
68 - thanks kingbongo.
All on pb.com know it makes sense!
Trust ‘Ave it’ for reliable information*
* no encouragement or inducement to gamble is implied or intended
:LOL:
60 Mike
Ben Brogan is not inclined to agree with you on the regional trends issue.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
The previous 3 ICM/Guardian polls have following leads for Conservatives over Labour
ICM/Guardian 23/11/2007 6
ICM/Guardian 28/10/2007 5
ICM/Guardian 04/10/2007 0
So this poll with a lead of 5 is in line with those polls.
The next question is what is different about the Guardian version of ICM, than other polls?
60 This seems a return to polling turbulence from the Autumn for no reason. Why? I know YouGov and ICM have the Lib Dem issue but aomething odd is happening
Evening all
First, Merry Christmas to all.
Ok, I’m a fan of ICM but they have thrown us rogue polls before - last month, the LD figure was 21% which I thought was too high and it may or may not be the same with Labour’s figure in this poll. I suppose the interest rate cut will have been welcomed (as will the likelihood of more) but the overwhelming deluge of economic gloom in the media would suggest otherwise.
I think it wholly unrealistic to expect a Nick Clegg “bounce” after just three days and I can only surmise that Mike writes as a disappointed Chris Huhne supporter. It will take time before most people work out who Nick is, let alone what he stands for but the party, as a whole, has moved to unite behind him and that has encouraged me.
That said, I readily accept the Conservatives are in a strong position though I would also argue that has been largely defaulted to them by a disastrous Labour performance since mid-September. If things continue as they are, David Cameron is on his way to No.10 either as Prime Minister of a majority Government or (more likely in my view) Prime Minister of a Government slightly short of a majority.
Cue: - “look at that David Cameron, he’s four seats short of a majority”.
If the regional figures are anything like accurate, the Tories are heading for a massive win, Broxtowe to be gained by 5000 odd.
by gollop December 21st, 2007 at 8:07 pm
dont be mean.
25: Yes, well, come to Broxtowe and see if you can detect any Conservative activity whatever…
by Nick Palmer MP December 21st, 2007 at 8:30 pm
wasnt you lead more than halved at the last election, down to about 2000?
and Lab GAIN, we do get that your a big Labour fan, but could you keep your posts at least somewhere near the realm of reality, its a bit annoying reading through and periodically seeing fantastical posts about Labour success.
As for this poll, it could be a rogue, or perhaps the YouGov one this morning will be a rogue. We havent had many polls in a while, depending on which way the next poll goes, we can figure which of today’s polls is a dud. (cue for the next poll to show a fance-sitting 8% tory lead)
Isn’t the phrase “one seat short of a majority”?
74 - here here. I dont like silly posts here - this is a serious site!
Broxtowe - Cat maj 60,000 (ooops sorry)
Well done Mike for putting five pictures of the real Tory leader next to the five per cent Tory ‘lead’!
lucky St John didn’t take me up on my bet!
Well I can’t say I’m surprised. Labour haven’t looked good but the Tories are no more than a default position for those who don’t want to say they aren’t going to vote.
Brown might look as clumsy as a bull in the National gallery but anyone knowing what Cameron and his lot stand for wins the Victor Lodorum at this years clairvoyant convention.
73 Stodge is “look at that David Cameron, he’s four seats short of a majority”., the equivalent of the Notting Hill mob’s equivalent of “he’s one blade short of a roof windmill”?
I think we should be told.
We need to wait for the detailed data from this poll to see where the votes of people who voted at the last election are shifting from/to . Gut feel is that the Labour figure is too high - I find it very hard to credit that with all the troubles of the last couple of months they retain over 90% of those who voted for them last time and I suspect this will not be born out by the comparison in the detailed figures .
The regional figures are complete tosh and worthless an accumulation of unweighted figures from polls taken over several months when voter opinion has been to say the least unstable .
80 - Or in other words: LDs = not many seats next time!
Ok, I’m not sure but here is what I think:
Scotland and Wales
Labour: nc Conservatives: +3%
North, North-East, North West:
Labour:-7% Conservatives:+12%
East Midlands, West Midlands, Eastern:
Labour:-5% Conservatives:+8%
South-East, South West:
Labour: -5% Conservatives: +5%
London:
Labour: -9% Conservatives: +4
Re: 82 - Me, we have often commented on here that the regional samples are very small and therefore need to be taken with a large bucket of salt.
That’s not denying the broad thrust of the poll - strong Tory performance - but I wouldn’t extrapolate too much from the regional shares.
Woger, your Latin is crap. Suggest you use very simple english in your convoluted and leaden similes.
78. Roger. Just checked in and there you are! I was seeking you out for the bet again only the other day. But, you may ask, would I have done an “Observer” on you? I hope you know I wouldn’t have.
I gave Roger’s bet some consideration. A Tory lead of less than 6 per cent with ICM? It was neither unwise or accidental that Roger chose ICM. They tend to be better for Labour. And he wanted polls to the end of January! But well done Roger, good call.
I don’t think it equates to a Labour revival, as the ICM poll is unchanged compared with it’s previous poll, within the MOE, while we move into a “no news” neutral holiday period.
Time, as always, will tell.
83-Stodge-These are just the changes compared with the last August poll, I’m not saying that these regional samples need to be “seriously considered”…
86-And I always had problems with Maths, so there’s one more reason to be careful!
In regional terms, con will gain an overall majority……
What a difference a day makes - virtually no posting today on the US Elections, probably because a number of commentators have been absent. Last time I looked, McCain was shortening and Huckerbee was weakening - I sense that he’s had his day.
It’s pretty quiet on here tonight, so I’m going to say goodnight.
This evening was definitely not PB’s finest hour in terms of posting up the ICM poll. Better to take a little longer and get it right first time. Serious money can be won and lost as a result of poor information.
90-PfP-No big news today about the US election.
89 - The Republican side is absolute chaos. Any of 4 still have a realistic chance. The Rasmussen 4-day rolling average now has NO Republican candidate at or above 20% nationally. This one may not be decided by Feb 6th.
84. (’English’-capital ‘E’)
90. Re Peter’s post. Can you clarify please. If ICM are showing no significant change, as suggested by HF at 71, then this needs stating.
94. Mike. I meant to direct as a request to you. The whole thread has appeared as a collpase in the Tory lead and a Labour revival. But if HF is correct at 71. then this is not the case. Please can you clarify. Thanks.
re 59 Nick, so that’s only 12.24% (34% of 36%)of who are voting Labour next time then?
86. Me, I’ve compared the latest Yougov Poll with the one from 31st August. I think this gives a better snap regional picture as the Yougov polls are snapshots that are directly comparable and do not use cumulative figures taken from differing length periods
London: Con +4% Lab -3% (Con lead by 7%)
South: Con +13% Lab -8% (Con Lead by 30%)
Midlands/Wales: Con +9% Lab -12% (Con Lead By 12%)
North: Con +18% Lab -14% (Con Lead by 5%)
Again all caveats regarding regional figures apply. However, the Yougov poll of 30th November (sample of 4004)also provides much larger regional samples. In this:
London: Con Led by 12% (sample of 583)
South: Con Led by 30% (sample of 1286)
Midlands: Con Led by 16% (sample of 888)
North: Lab led by 8% (sample of 923)
Using these and the information provided by ICM, it’s clear that the Conservatives are presently dominant in the South and Midlands and have pretty much eaten up Labour’s advantage in the North and London. Possibly they could be in front in all four regions.
95-stjohn-Don’t know if this helps, but the last ICM poll had the Tories with a 11% lead.Those that HF showed are ICM/Guardian, and the last ICM was published by the News of the World
97-Jfsl-Thanks!!Much better!
O/T-A good article about the polls and the Iowa caucus:
“Iowa: Where Things Stand”
http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/
98 “Me” you are correct, this survey is by ICM for the Guardian and is in line with the previous 2 ICM Guardian ones.
Also why are ICM/G showing 5 to 6 point leads and the others from Yougov, ComRES and ICM/NOW 10 to 13 point leads.
Then there is Populus which has swung from -1 at start of Nov to 8 pt gap on 9th Dec.
Confused? You should be in tonight’s episode of soap….
goodnight.
To clarify……….
CON GAIN EVERYTHING
Goodnight!
98. Me. Thanks for that. It’s this business of comparing “Like for Like polls”, which, to me, is obviously both necessary and sensible to make any sensible conclusion.
But now, I am learning that there are, or could/should be, “nuances”, between the individual pollsters themselves. Depending on varaiables such as methodology and whether face to face, on the phone etc. Ah well. I’ll sleep on it.
101-HF-”Confused? You should be in tonight’s episode of soap….”
LOL!Good night…
103-stjohn-”there are, or could/should be, “nuances”, between the individual pollsters themselves.”
So it seems!But as you said, comparing these polls it’s the way, maybe the only one, to make sensible conclusions…
100. Oh, and Me. I don’t find that grapph confusing. The graph reads:
Orange = Obama = Winner.
LOL! As another regular may have concluded.
That any one poll can be written up as “sensational” or “dramatic” is pretty silly. Even more so when that poll shows changes pretty much within the margin of error. Let’s hope for some calmer reporting of polls in the future on PB.com, and leave it to the dead-tree press to do the over-hype.
106-LOLOLOLOLOLOL etc etc etc
As the same regular would have concluded!
For December,it is the YouGov pollswhich are out of line with the other polls reporting this month. ICM,Populus and Mori all report much lower Con leads.Is YouGov getting something wrong? ComRes have still to report- as they indicated plus 13 in November,the highest Con lead so far,their next figures will be interesting.
There are two equal and opposite errors people can make about opinion polls. The first is to imagine that what we would like to think is happening bears more relation to reality than what the polls are telling us. Polling methodology has improved greatly since the 80s and early 90s. Where all the polls have moved together showing big changes in support this year, it is very likely that these really do reflect major changes in the opinions of many voters.
However, the opposite mistake is to get too excited about a single poll, especially one at an unusual time such as just before Christmas. Given that most polls have a 3% margin of error for each party, variations of up to six percentage points in the lead are only to be expected.
I’m surprised by Mike’s uncharacteristic over-reaction to this one result.
Have to agree with Iain at 67 that if someone as normally sensible as Mike can describe being 5% behind as “a superb Christmas present” for Gordon Brown that just shows how far GB’s position has deteriorated since the summer.
Quiet, innit?
Oh well, guess we’ll have to have another quiz…
1. Which post-War PM was challenged in his seat by a dissident MP from his own party?
New thread - Can you make sense of the GOP race?
Huckerbee is still 3rd favourite, but definitely on the skids - he now needs some seriously good poll news to re-kindle his profile.
Incredibly, I’ve just been able to grab some more McCain at 9-1 from Corals, compared with just 9-2 on offer from Hills, it’s not very often one sees that. I intend laying him at 6-1 or less on Betfair. Over the next 2-3 weeks at least 3 of the present contenders will fall, they just have to. At present I’m very green on Romney, McCain & Huckerbee and a lttle red on Giuliani, Paul & Thomson. My very best result, worth ££££££££££ (and then some!)would be Huckerbee to win the Presidency, but it just aint going to happen!
This poll doesn’t make any sense. What have the government done that would cause such a sudden increase in support? A fall in Tory support to the Lib Dems would make some sense but I fail to see what good headlines the government has achieved in the past few days. With all other polls showing Labour in the low 30s and Tories in the low 40s, this poll looks very much like a rogue one to me.
New thread already!!!!
It’s Christmastide and the polling companies have provided presents for everyone!
Tories have YouGov, and though the leads smaller than YouGov in Populus and Mori still healthy position.
Labour supporters can ignore the other polls and see in ICM a new dawn breaking just as the winter solstice passes and days start lengthening again. The election of Nick Clegg seems to have driven support back to Gordon.
Lib Dems have a new leader and their poll ratings in YouGov have improved.
As for myself a bit disappointed Tories below 40 for first time since, well, the last ICM Guardian poll but with news such as that on foreign prisoners am sure that Gordon will ensure any joy for Labour is shortlived.
The polls seem to have been all over the place recently. Having followed politics for decades, I would expect the ruling party to be way behind in the polls mid-term. What surprises me is how close they are given this government’s extraordinary ability to continually make one cock up after another. Only a 5 to 12% lead?
“a Tory government is not as inevitable as other surveys have suggested.”
Hmm … as I posted in a very recent thread, it was absurd ever to suggest that a Tory win or any other result is ‘inevitable’ two years or so before a General Election.
None of us really has anything approimating a good idea of what will happen.
Voting intention figures in midterm mean almost nothing as far as the net GE result is concerned. If I were looking for some straws in the wind, I’ve always considered the ‘best party to handle the economy’ question more useful. I seem to recall seeing one a few days ago with the Conservatives about three per cent ahead. But there’s way to much economics coming up for that tobe of significance either.
Mike is good at guiding us on the short-term changes in the seat MARKETS.
“Looking at ICM’s polls since the Tories retook the lead in October though, there seems to be a consistent pattern of lower Tory shares in ICM’s Guardian polls compared to the ones for the Sundays. “ Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report
Interesting Scottish figures. SNP 39%, Labour 36%. Tories “up 3%”.
It say’s that is from the summer. So no instantly available figure.
But if it is above 15% then the LibDems are in real trouble in Scotland.
Probably a mix of a two party squeeze, less overall profile in Scotland, strategically placing themselves too close to Labour, and overdoing the negative politics so much in their areas of comparative strength that there’s been a press backlash.
And with a non-Scottish leader now their profile is going to decrease even more substantially in the Scottish press.
After coming 2nd in 2005 and taking Dunfermline their collapse in Scotland exposes a severe lack of any serious thinking by their leadership.