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Tories lead down to 5% with ICM (revised story)

December 21st, 2007

five grumpy gordons.JPG

    So it’s only five Grumpy Gordons

There’s been a dramatic improvement in Labour’s polling position according to the Guardian’s December poll which is due to be published tomorrow. The shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster CON 39% (-2): LAB 34% (+4) LD 18% (-1).

For both the Tories and the Lib Dems under their new leader these figures will be enormously disappointing. Nick Clegg must have been hoping for some sort of boost following his succession to the top job.

    There is little doubt that this is a superb Christmas present for Gordon Brown. It shows an amazing recovery in a very short time and perhaps suggests that a Tory government is not as inevitable as other surveys have suggested.

What is really interesting is that many people had expected a fall-off in Tory support with the installation of Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader. The fact that this has not happened makes this even more sensational.

My only caveat about this survey is that the fieldwork was held over so that they could take into account the new Lib Dem leader. The problem is that polls taken when a lot of people are on holiday have a habit of being out of line.

Mike Smithson

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