Countdown to the primaries - My Sunday selection
December 23rd, 2007Is Romney “stretching the truth”?
With just a week and a half to go before real voters have their chance to have their say on who should be the candidates in the 2008 White House Race there’s an enormous amount of fabulous material that gives a real flavour of the race and is unlike almost anything that we experience here.
So as the build up continues I plan to do a daily round-up of some of the articles and videos that I’ve been impressed with - the first one a super-charged TV clash with Romney spokesman Kevin Madden over whether his man is stretching the truth.
To me this looks pretty serious for Romney and has prompted me to put more on rivals John McCain and Mick Huckabee.
How “third party groups” are influencing the campaign
ABC News has been putting a lot of focus on the so-called third party groups which are not attached officially to any of the campaign teams but are spending millions of dollars trying to influence the outcome.
One that shows the complexity is a campaign by a trade union attempting to undermine Obama while at the same time appearing to support John Edwards. It is in fact pro-Hillary.
Check the story and the video.
How the Christmas ads look
The former Clinton advisor in the early years and the man who helped UKIP to their 2004 successes in the Euro Elections here, Dick Morris was involved in this interesting review of the candidates special messages for Christmas. I find the lighting in Huckabee commercial that apparently shows a cross behind him quite spooky.
A taste of Obama’s stump speech
There’s a great article on the Real Clear Politics site describing the evolution of Obama’s stump speech - his standard performance that he makes many time a day as he moves from one location to another. It’s quite powerful and is one reason why my main money in the Democratic race stays on him.
This is well worth reading.
The latest betting prices (Sunday 1740)
Hillary continues to remain a firm favourite on Betfair for the Democratic nomination. She’s on 0.54/1 with Obama at 2.35/1 and John Edwards on 16.5/1.
In the GOP race it’s Giuliani on 2.3/1; Romney 2.9/1 and both McCain and Huckabee at 5.8/1
Have you seen or read anything that’s interesting - please put a link in the thread below.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Can we put old articles?
For people interested in the ‘floating cross’ - here is Huckabee responding to the accusation that it is a subliminal message. This shows quite how at ease he is when being questioned too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Tm59600r_E&eurl=http://dizzythinks.net/
Sorry, hat-tip to Dizzy for that.
re 2 & 3. Agreed - Huckabee is brilliant when facing tough questioning - and it’s going to get tougher. I still can’t see America electing a creationist but he’s a formidable contender.
Re 1. Of course - anything you have seen.
Everything I’ve seen so far points towards Huckabee getting this nomination. I can’t help but feel his momentum will carry him through, even though there’s been a slight dip over the last couple of weeks.
Obama will run Hillary very close in the Dem race.
4-Ok then!
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/18/independents_may_lift_mccain_not_obama_in_nh/
6 The Romney clip is hilarious! It had me feeling sorry for the poor sod who was paid to defend the indefensible. Whatever he was getting, it wasn’t enough.
I’ve often wondered why Romney wasn’t a shoo-in for the nomination and now I know. Any politician who is stupid enough to tell demonstrable lies just to try and win a few votes is bound to come a cropper and it looks like Romney has done it once too often.
It actually reminded me of GB lying about the non-election. Had he told the truth, nobody would have given a stuff but telling porkies and expecting the public to swallow it! Sorry, too much.
Sell Romney. Sell Brown.
All lookin’ good for the Republicans y’all!!!!
Ladbrokes will still give you 12/1 against Romney scoring under 20% in the Iowa caucus. Remember that there is no 15% rule in the Republican caucus and this might be worth a small punt.
O/T. New poll out in the morning. Not good news for Gordon. Will post later.
10 - looking forward to it!
8 - I think this ‘GOP it 08′ could be big force next year…..
I think I posted this before but:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/why_huckabee_might_be_helping.html
8 GOP it 08 - would this be your first cousin Ave it 07, or an even closer relative perhaps?
13: there MAY be a link between 8 and 11 - they are certainly the way ahead for pb.com!
14 I can see only McCain with a chance to win for the GOP in November 2008 assuming they nominate him. All the rest carry too much baggage. Even Hillary would have too much for them never mind Obama. True he riles the Tvanagelist blowhards but all his positions are orthodox GOP and like Obama he appeals to more than just the base in the GOP. If they reject him, they may well reject their chance of victory
Where is everybody? Christmas already?
15. If they do reject him and your analysis is right (and I’m not yet convinced that it is - both Hillary and Obama carry enough negatives or unknowns to leave an opportunity for other GOP hopefuls), they wouldn’t be the first political party to choose someone for reasons other than simple electoral appeal.
Interesting market mentioned on the previous thread about the conventions not selecting on the first ballot, and rather pleased to see that the odds on the GOP side (15%-25%) were pretty much in line with the 4/1 I suggested yesterday. At least if I’m wrong on that, I’m in good company!
The most interesting development will be the Romney story. This might get buried during the Christmas period, or because there may be a slight lull in campaigning it might allow it to run for longer. I’m getting the impression that he’s become a little accident-prone of late. That doesn’t augur well for a primary schedule that gives the candidates virtually no let-up once it kicks off. Mistakes will be even more damaging this time round than they are usually as there’ll be less time to correct them or allow their impact to fade before the next poll. Generally speaking, I agree with Mike’s assessment and am also positioned far more positively on McCain and Huckabee than Giuliani and Romney.
Exciting tonight.
So:
Con
Gain
Everything
I’m taken by Cheltboy’s comment @10 in relation to another UK poll overnight. Being “bad for Brown” might not necessarily mean a blow to Labour in terms of voting intention. I assume that this will be ComRes in the Indy which had 40-27-18 last month.
We tend not to get details of Indy polls until quite late.
Maybe it will be 45-23-16! (I’m only saying MAYBE, i havent seen it)
That would be exciting!
18/19-Nice to see that you are still here…
Will labour go below 20% in 2008?
Can con go to 65%???
Will LDs disappear?????
Isnt it exciting????
“Huckabee angers some Catholics”
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2326769820071223?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Of course the Conservatives did actually improve in the Guardian ICM this month so Communicate could yet be carnage
24-Yes, they improved in relation to the last ICM/Guardian, but not in relation to the last ICM…
I cant wait for it to come out!
As girls aloud said once: its something kinda oooooooooooooh!
Which is why i said Guardian ICM
23. Me, this linked story has the potential to be even more damaging for Huckabee…
http://tinyurl.com/yq8nv4
27-Exactly why I said “Yes”…
28-Agree with you, Caveman. This story can cause him serious problems. Let’s see what the press will make of this…
26. LOL!!
So if I am a rip-off of Ave It 07, is GOP it 08 a rip-off of Lab GAIN?!
Blair scores 48% in Iowa!!!!!
Lab gain Presidency!!!!!
Hmm. I can’t wait to see details of Chetboy’s poll.
31 LOLOLOLOLOLOL
32. Yes Benedict. We are all on tenterhooks. Over to you cheltboy!
34 Cheltboy is busily selling Labour Seats on Spreadfair as we speak.
O/T - CAUTION
There is only one Ave It.
Accept no imitations.
I’d be surprised if this poll will see Labour less than 28% or so. I’m guessing its pretty much a restatement of some of the hefty leads that the Tories have been having.
Lovely thing for the PLP to be taking with them into Xmas day…..
36 - thanks PtP
Ave it posts the facts. The imitators post rubbish!
Whilst we all wait in eager anticipation for cheltboy’s poll results, I just want to pick up on the ‘Huckabee the anti-Catholic’ thing.
Honestly, I don’t think he or his campaign are anti-Catholic, but I do think that he must have made a political calculation in preaching at John Hagee’s MegaChurch and receiving money from Cornerstone. His team (Ed Rollins, for goodness’ sake!) will have known that this makes him a no-chance for much of the Catholic vote, but figured that the benefits (Protestant Evangelical vote-winning footsoldiers and ready cash) outweigh the negatives.
The grand aliance of Catholics and Evangelicals on abortion and gay marriage is apparently showing signs of strain, because of people like Hagee. Now the Democrat contenders are preaching ’safe, legal and rare’ (ie keep Roe v Wade, but look unhappy about it), I reckon most Catholics probably feel comfortable going back home to the Democrats, particularly when they are competing from nice Catholic cities like Chicago (Obama) and New York (Hillary). If the Catholics are wavering, and thinking of going Democrat anyway, in the short term Huckabee will figure that he might as well get the money and support of the Protestant churches, and try and spread the tent if he actually wins the nomination.
The money is obviously key here - Huckabee is sixth in the GOP race for cash, and qualified for no ‘match funding’ from the FEC yesterday (see my link at the end of the last thread - $19m of taxpayers money given to Edwards and McCain for their campaigns). I suspect he cannot afford to say no to the MegaChurches. This could be strategy, or it could be desperation. The next FEC Quarterly filing deadline is 31st January - check out Huckabee’s form to see if he has the money to go past Super Tuesday. Money follows success, of course, but if he is very low cash-on-hand, he could lose momentum just after a breakthrough waiting for big donations to come in.
Poll is up on Com Res Website. Utter Rubbish; Fieldwork 14-16th - this is not an opinion poll, it’s ancient history!
oh well never mind
What about this for a Huckabee perfomance…
Huckabee’s Phone Call From God
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yj_okz7ZwI
You can see why the evangelicals like him!
The poll
http://www.comres.co.uk/PollDigest/Political_Poll_Dec_071.pdf
what are the headline figures?
44.I think it is 41/30/16
So Con +1 Lab +3 LD -2
Cameron seen as more likeable, better PM, better frontbench and Brown seen as the one most able to take the economy through bad times in 2008. More people saying it’s time for a change than those saying Lab should continue in power
45 - so that means we’ve won!
11 point Tory lead, 2 down from the previous Comres lead of 13.
But still - 11 points. Not much Yuletide cheer for Gordo. Would give a Tory majority of 46.
does anyone have a link to any graphs showing the average polling levels of the two main parties, like real clear but for the UK?
lab gain translates to Con landslide…………..
..based on last rogue poll..
Mike has often put graphs up, where does he get them?
I see you can get a few quid on Michael Bloomberg to win the Presidency @ 38 (Betfair). Pity it’s only a few quid - that would be a value trading bet surely? Any others out there?
48 Anthony Wells’s site page on current voting intention has a graph of polls since 2005 election
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/
48. Anthony Wells does a graph
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/
54 Snap!
thanks a lot. that’s getting bookmarked.
Nice tongue in cheek review of the candidates Xmas vids by Mark Steyn…
http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/christmas-message-santa-1947181-mccain-huckabee
52-An old article but you may like:
“Strategy session: Could Bloomberg enter in the middle?”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7324.html
As Mike said we could post old articles, here is one of them:
“Is Huckabee the New Jimmy Carter?”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/is_huckabee_the_new_jimmy_cart.html
I’ve been downplaying Romney for a while now, even when he was creeping up in the polls, and have been knocked by various other posters for doing so. But I’m going to say it again. Despite having several routes to get there, Romney has only about a 25% chance of getting the nomination. He just has far too many weaknesses. This latest story on his “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King” is going to run and run. It puts people’s finger on what was a previously unpinned discomfort on Romney. He just has too many issues where he painfully contorts his previous records and words to explain how he’s now a trustworthy, solid conservative. This is the case on abortion, gay marriage, immigration, tax… and, of course, Mormonism. This latest story just sums it up: only Romney could make a one-sentence claim with spurious meanings of “saw”, “march” AND “with”. Unlike Giuliani, with his powerful and genuine foreign policy views, Romney does not have anything to make up for his weaknesses. He has no positive counterweight for his negatives. He may scrape New Hampshire and win Michigan off his father’s reputation, but people will be looking elsewhere come Super Tuesday. I guarantee.
Huckabee, by contrast, is having his negatives overplayed. His religious vote will not be scared off by the criticism. When he’s accused of being dodgy on immigration, he speaks on Christian values to look after the children (which appeals to religious types) and neuters the only real weak point he’s got. His tax views won’t offend them either - they only bother the country club crowd who wouldn’t vote for him anyway. In Iowa, which is mainly religious conservatives I am 85% certain he will win, which means his odds will narrow. I still doubt him being able to survive the Super Tuesday vote, but my advice is to buy now and sell after Iowa.
As for the rest, Giuliani is falling and McCain is growing and I think it’s going to be very close between them over who will be the establishment candidate vs Huckabee. It all depends on how well McCain does against Romney up to Nevada. If Huckabee wins Iowa (which will happen), and McCain gets New Hampshire, he might be able to put in strong enough performances in Michigan and South Carolina to propel him to national prominence. For Giuliani to win, he needs to keep up his media presence enough during what will be an early dry spell to win Nevada, which would then guarantee Florida, California and a whole host of other states on Super Tuesday. It might be a good idea to sell him now, keeping an eye on the polls in Nevada to buy back as his odds drift.
On the Democrat side, I can only reiterate how strong a candidate Obama is. His only weakness is the current polls and voter recognition. If he gets given media prominence he will surge. He is confident, articulate, genuine, thoughtful, can alternate between folksy and intellectual for different audiences, has the appearance of a uniter, as well as elements of JFK and MLK (just listen to that voice!) rolled into one. Plus he has the money and organisation to match Clinton nation wide. I should also note that most Clinton supporters I know are unemotionally for her, where Obama’s supporters are mad for him. That adulation, which would be frowned upon in the UK, can be highly contagious among Americans, who love to be part of a movement.
60. I know the States quite well, I know Utah very well - I’ve been there several times, and all over the state. I’ve even been to the polygamist town of Colorado City.
I like Mormons…. they are unfailingly polite, friendly, and hospitable, and often surprisingly funny and sardonic. But I simply don’t believe Americans would vote a Mormon as president. Mormon beliefs are just too weird. The whole spiritual undergarments thing.
Republicans surely know this; so unless they are stupid they will reject Romney as a candidate. I don’t think Republicans are stupid.
60. Great post Socrates. Well argued and even more importantly, your analysis supports my various betting positions. Let’s you and I lay off the hemlock until at least Super Tuesday. All to play for!
61. I believe that just about every religious person believes the beliefs of other religions are weird. They only consider another religion “reasonable” if they form a quasi-alliance with that religion against an even more different third religion.
But then that all goes to prove your point. Americans wouldn’t elect a Mormon president. I don’t think that’s “stupid” thought: Romney’s beliefs would clearly affect his presidency far less than George Bush’s have damaged his.
thought = though
O/T Mike - to fill that void between Christmas and the New Year and, yes, I am aware that stjohn will shortly be unveiling his promised cryptic crossword, how about setting a 15-20 question quiz for 2008, largely but not necessarily entirely politically based, with PBers invited to submit suggested questions on people/ events/results/facts/figures for next year?
All this made me wonder: If Romney is not going to be the GOP nominee because he’s a Mormon or because he change his opinions as the days changes, if Huck is not going to be the nominee because he is “so religious”, if McCain is not going to be because he’s not “a real conservative”, if Giuliani is not going to be because he’s has a complicated personal life, if Fred is not going to be because he’s uninspiring, if Ron is not going to be because(do I need to say why?), then who is left?
65. Great idea Peter. I’m sure Rod Crosby would help if Mike likes the idea and needs assistance.
The crossword is with the editor as we speak.
O/O/O/T - what about a quiz based on classic pb.com comments in 2007 such as: ‘LDs = LOL’ (Ave it 07, sometime in 2007)
63. Philosophically you are right, of course. We define the sensibleness of our own beliefs against the otherness of alternative beliefs.
“I am religious, you are superstitious, he is a fruitloop.”
But as you say this just reinforces the point. Right now Mormonism is just too “other” for a Mormon candidate to be papabile.
It’s interesting how religion still sticks in the voters’ craw, whereas race and gender are now much less problematic. Few people say Hilary can’t get elected coz she’s a woman; even Obama’s race doesn’t see to be that much of a problem.
But a Mormon president? No way.
And before we Brits start gloating, we have to remember we haven’t even had a Catholic prime minister, and Blair felt unable to convert while in office.
Religion is still very important in the way we vote, even in supposedly secular societies like the UK.
But then again I don’t think Britain is secular - just apathetic. Protestantism is still in the DNA of the British nation.
68 what about the worst post on PB.com. Im sure I must be in the frame somewher?
66. Me. McCain is the clear “none of the above” candidate, in my view. His age is his only downside and his positives are huge.
70 LOL: Mark Senior would be a strong contender for that!
67. I’m supposed to be doing a quiz on Christmas day. It’s tough coming up with questions worthy of us anoraks, as I’ve asked a load over the past 18 months or so, but I think I’ve got some really *hard* ones, with nonetheless interesting answers!
71-Stjohn-Some say that Huck is the none of the above, I don’t know who is it. But I think Huck is going to win IA, with this McCain will win in NH, and then it’s all open again. But I agree with you that McCain positives are huge.
Personally,it’s I find more difficult to guess who will win IA and NH in the Democratic side…
73 For those of you who felt deprived by the non-election, I also have a special Xmas present that should cheer you up….
You can have an election every day of the year! Watch this space…
it should read “Personally, I find…”
75
its all about the election…….
Gordon will like that………
67/73 Unlike’s Rod’s Christmas Day quiz, based on fact, I was suggesting one looking forward to next year, like for instance, shall we say, er, um ….Who will be the Prime Minister on 31 December 2008?
65, Peter. Here’s a clue that didn’t make the cut.
Foot abandoned the core assembly (7).
Answer tomorrow if not solved before by a stray insomniac.
78 more interesting to ask if Gordo will be there in March 2008.. There will be no election so you cant say Cameron…
78. Peter. Isn’t this what Mike’s annual prediction competition already covers?
79 Strange that of the top four contenders for the GOP nomination, posters here are going clearly for the two least favoured in the betting markets, i.e. McCain & Huckabee, very little is being written on PB.com about Giuliani.
66. The thing is, each of those negatives is only a negative to a particular demographic in the GOP. What will decide the nomination is how the different demographics of each state choose their “forced choice” between the two or three front runners, and how that momentum carries over to affect the forced choice in the next state. This is see how I see the most probably example going:
Iowa:
Huckabee vs Romney
Religious conservatives and social conservatives vote for Huckabee. Fiscal conservatives for Romney.
Huckabee wins.
New Hampshire:
McCain vs a damaged Romney
Romney gets (much larger) fiscal conservative and country club vote. McCain gets independent vote. Social conservatives split, slightly favouring McCain.
McCain inches it.
Michigan:
Huckabee vs Romney
Huckabee gets (much smaller) religious vote and some social conservatives. Doubts about his immigration views scare away more mainstream Republicans and they vote for Romney based on loyalty to his father.
Romney inches it.
Nevada:
Giuliani vs Romney
Growing uncertainties about Romney causes a vote split, but a larger number of conservatives go Giuliani due to foreign policy views.
Giuliani wins.
South Carolnia:
Huckabee vs McCain
Various winners so far means no-one has momentum, except Romney who is now falling fast. Southern pride and religious folks go Huckabee. Military and establishment vote goes McCain.
Huckabee wins but McCain is close.
Florida:
Giuliani vs Huckabee vs McCain
Independent minded go McCain. Rural vote goes Huckabee. Military vote goes Giuliani. Social conservatives split between Giuliani and McCain.
Giuliani wins with McCain second.
Super Tuesday:
Giuliani vs McCain vs Huckabee
Huckabee has the religious vote sowed up, but rest of GOP have doubts. Giuliani and McCain compete for the establishment and media choice. Whoever gets it beats Huckabee.
81 stjohn - Yes, sorry, I’d overlooked that.
82. I think McCain is far more likely than his recent odds suggest but Giuliani should still be the favourite. Giuliani’s unrestrained law and order and foreign policy spiel will continue to win him positive admiration from the current Republican base, who hate namby pamby “see both sides” rubbish. This is McCain’s innate problem: Republicans don’t like thoughtful, they like gutsy.
75 Rod, here’s a good one I just found out the answer to.
Which Parliamentary constituency was contested in 1997 by a descendant of the only British Prime Minister to be assasinated, and by a descendant of his assasin?
82 - No value in national frontrunners! Giuliani has not been mentioned, I think, largely because his strategy is all about Florida-onwards (the ‘Firewall’ of Big States), so he has barely campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire (where he could never win well anyway). There are enough negatives about Giuliani that his position is ‘if I’m not contesting, I should be invisible’. Apparently, in focus groups, his approval rating goes down with exposure - the more people see of him, the less they like him. I think that was HuffPo or Daily Kos, so take with a tablespoon of salt! Giuliani has also been ill - he spent a night in hospital this week, but is now fine. So, invisible and poor value means we don’t spend as much time on him as perhaps we should.
60 - one of your best yet, Socrates, and that’s saying something. I agree almost entirely. If Romney didn’t look so presidential, and didn’t have so much money, he would be perhaps the most unsuitable candidate in the GOP. He survives as long as the electorate is superficial. Huckabee’s negatives are being overplayed, including by me, but only with respect to the GOP nomination. Those negatives will prevent him from winning against a half-decent Democrat.
83-Socrates-In Michigan, we also have McCain, especially if he wins in NH. In Nevada we also have Huckabee. I still think that we may have Giuliani, McCain, Huck and Romney in the Super Tuesday. And if Romney wins in Michigan, he may win in Nevada, I don’t need to remind you that he was only 5% behind in the last poll. So, again I think it’s pretty much open, and everything depends on who wins the “primary before”…
58. Thanks - interesting. Usual fate of independent candidates is to hand somebody else a slightly unlikely victory (Ross Perot - Clinton, Ralph Nader - Bush?), so which way would Bloomberg tilt things? Worse for the Republican candidate I guess?
83 - Great analysis.
This assumes Romney only wins Michigan, Utah, and Mass? And Thompson only carries his home state? Still points to there being at least three viable candidates after Super Tuesday, if the Giuliani/McCain states break half-way evenly. Under your permutations, I think the 4-1 on a brokered GOP convention could be good value.
89-If Bloomberg enters the race, then he will be “in it to win it”. But who would be worse with his candidacy, I don’t know. I think it depends on who are the candidates.
88. Yes McCain could be in play for Michigan, so a very interesting three way battle there. McCain and Romney could even split the non-religious vote and let in Huckabee. That could produce some very interesting effects, although I think it’s unlikely. Whatever happens, it should be a close race, which means even if Romney wins, it will be a small margin in what was thought to be a sure thing for him. That, combined with his loss in Iowa and growing attention to his lack of authenticity will stop him gaining any momentum.
In the scenario I touted, Huckabee would only have won Iowa and his momentum would have faded 2.5 weeks later in Nevada, so his polls would be at current levels - too far away to win.
86. That has to have something to do with Henry Bellingam, MP for Norfolk North West, who I believe is a descendant of the assassin of Perceval.
John Bellingham spent many years as a merchant in Liverpool, and was indentified immediately after the assassination by the city’s MP, an ancestor of University Challenge’s Bamber Gascoyne…
90. Thompson might not even do that. I can’t see any plausible way he could be in with a shout at the nomination and his home state won’t want to waste their delegates. I think there’s certainly at least a 20% chance of a brokered convention (unless a scandal breaks disrupting everything).
One word of warning about those backing McCain. The GOP is notoriously tribal these days. After eight years of Bush, anyone fair-minded to the other side has gone independent or joined the Democrats. This means those that are left tend to be very opposed to McCain for siding with the Democrats over the last decade. Even if his views are seen his right, his loyalties aren’t seen as sound and this will count against him - a lot. That’s not to say he won’t come through as his views DO fit the bill, but he has to prove himself first, even if other candidates flail.
87. I still think an Obama-Huckabee race would be extremely interesting. It would be two anti-politicians being nice and respectful to each other until the vote. That would be plain bizarre.
Ok, I’ll shut up for a bit as I’m clearly posting too much.
92-I think it very likely that McCain will be in the battle in Michigan, after winning NH, he will have to keep the momentum, which won’t be that difficult.
“In the scenario I touted, Huckabee would only have won Iowa and his momentum would have faded 2.5 weeks later in Nevada, so his polls would be at current levels - too far away to win.”
Then how could he win in SC, if it’s even more far(and I know that white evangelicals comprise 50% of the likely voters)? Because if McCain wins in Michigan or if he gets a close second, then he will be unstoppable, so he will win in SC…
British politics:
It’s Jackie Ashley, and she’s not happy:
“Labour’s yuletide U-turn suggests it has lost its way”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2231895,00.html
“Gordon Brown’s £144bn spending spree could land each household with £5,500 more tax”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=504336&in_page_id=1770
Good night…
Think that the scenarios that Socrates is hypothesizing (or is it prophesizing?) are more interesting than persuasive at this stage.
Mainly becaue the campaigns will be more “nationalized” that his model suggests. For sure there will be states where one or another of the candidates is stronger/weaker. BUT think making assumptions about how the race will stack up in ANY February state requires a Ouija Board at this stage.
BECAUSE the results in early states ALWAYS have an impact on the next states, and so on & so forth. Kind of like in 19th century UK general elections where polling day was staggered (in more ways that one!) across the country. The nature and degree of impact from as the calendar progresses from state to state are differential & hard to assess EXCEPT to say that the process chews up losers at a VERY FAST CLIP.
Regarding the last point, think it likely that one or more of the guys on your list Socrates will be toast by Super Tues.
Real question you punters should be asking right now is: Which candidate recuited the best precinct captains in all of Black Hawk County? Not to mention the other 98?!
96. Momentum or no momentum, religious conservatives will vote Huckabee. He’s the 100% real deal for them: genuine, honest, charismatic, Southern, a religious preacher and has all the right views for the reborn evangelical movement. Considering the state’s demographics, South Carolina will vote for him (unless some other candidate has already turned the process into a procession - which I can’t see happening).
100. It was (to my mind) the most likely scenario out of many possible ones. The idea was to mainly show how the primary system, the demographics of each state, and the “forced choice” between frontrunners in each state, will effect the nomination process, rather than to predict a genuine winner. The only guaranteed player to get through to Super Tuesday in my mind is Huckabee, who will get at least Iowa and South Carolina. If McCain doesn’t get New Hampshire, he’s certainly out. If Romney doesn’t get Michigan then he’s out. If Giuliani doesn’t get Nevada he’s probably out. So yes, at least one could be toast although I think it’s unlikely two will be out of the reckoning.
Whatever happens, I think Super Tuesday will be one of two scenarios:
(a) Huckabee losing to a clear establishment candidate.
(b) Huckabee winning due to the mainstream vote being split between two level-pegging candidates.
60. On the Obama vein; I’ve just spoken with my mother, who is an undecided Democratic voter in California (Feb 5 state), and she said that she hasn’t made up her mind yet. She said further that she thinks it’s because she really wants to support Clinton but Clinton always disappoints her.
I thought that might be an interesting insight into how undecided women voters who actually know something about politics might be thinking. I’m sure many, especially older women (over 50 like my mother) for whom it was a family shame as a child if their mother worked, would love to see a woman in the White House, but maybe a lot have the same hesitancy to support Clinton that my own mother does and are therefore holding out as undecided. I don’t know if that’s really a large part of the female constituency, but I thought it was an interesting anecdote.
Some other comments about the Democratic race; a poll from Georgia recently showed Obama leading, so he’s making inroads into the Feb 5 states even before Iowa, which is interesting. The saccharin Clinton campaign ad, possibly the worst political ad I’ve seen, ever (including the ridiculous Gravel ad where he stares at you for a minute then throws a stone into a lake), may be hurting her, and I think its running in all of the Feb 5 states (at least, I’ve seen it here in the New York media market, which covers most of two of the largest Feb 5 states, New York and New Jersey). Polls basically show a statistical tie in all three of the main early states; as soon as it looks as if Clinton has regained momentum or Obama is pulling away, a new poll comes out that says the opposite, so there’s little to report there.
On the Republican side, things are as chaotic as ever. As I’ve said before, get your money off of Giuliani if you still can; he’s now well behind at least two candidates (which two varies) in all of the early states: IA (Huckabee and Romney), NH (Romney and McCain), SC (Romney, Huckabee, McCain AND Thompson), FL (Huckabee and Romney), MI (Huckabee, Romney and McCain).
McCain seems to be gaining some ground, particularly in New Hampshire, where’s he’s still expending all of his energy and money. I can’t see how he could possibly win the nomination (unless the very unlikely circumstance of a brokered convention occurs), but if he wins New Hampshire from behind, Romney and Giuliani are both finished (Romney because he’ll have lost his safety and Giuliani because, as we’ve seen in the NH polls, McCain’s gains come mostly at Giuliani’s expense, probably because these are mostly people voting on electability).
Huckabee would, however, still be my favorite for the nomination.
102. Err… Not to suggest that I support Huckabee or anything (full disclosure: I’m a Democrat who will probably vote for Richardson even though he’s a lost cause).
r4e 102 & 103. Mike (NJ) thanks for your contributions and keep on posting. I’m hoping that this will be a daily feature.
For me Huckabee has been the sensation of this campaign. He is such a good performer and his self-deprecating humour goes down well on this side of the Atlantic. He seems to be able able to defuse even the most difficult of situations.
01, Personally think Giuliani may be out of the hospital but his campaign is still in the emergency room; starting to look like a real train wreck. This whole incident was totally mishandled by the campaign, which managed to turn a missed flu shot (how did THAT happen?) into a major news bulletin (thanks in part to very slow news day/week). Then sent JUDITH NATHAN to make a statment. Oy vey!
As for Huckabee, he’s clearly got religous social conservatives (same people) moving his direction but personally reckon the intensity level is low. Which may explain his total fundraising failure, apparently even as he’s surging in the polls. Which is underscored by Ron Paul’s amazing fundraising success.
And sure do NOT think Huckabee’s a cinch to win Iowa, though do think he’s certain to at least place 2nd, with 1st within striking distance. BECAUSE in many ways Huckabee is an appealing, attractive, articulate candidate who is certainly tapping into the anti-establishmentarian mood. BUT there is also a tangible televangelism to Huckabee that offputting (consciously & subliminally)to plenty of Americans including many with strong religious views themselves (for example, the “born again” repeat killer he not only pardoned but advocated; not even Mike Dukakis went THAT far with Willie Horton).
Don’ much like the guy but seems to me that ROMNEY is in much better shape that you Brits OR the media gives him credit for. I mean, the WORST they can come up with is exagerating his daddy’s relationship with MLK? Not exactly a hanging offense in the minds of most voters, methinks.
And methinks the religious bar sinister is much overblown. (If you want weird, Roman Catholicism and Christian Science are pretty hard to beat to mention just two likely entries.) In my humble experience, anti-Mormonism is confined to relatively small number of Protestant (not Catholic) conservatives, and the intensity level is low. Thus these people are gravitating to Huckabee but it ain’t no crusade. And for the rest of the GOP electorate Romney remains on their dance card, often as 2nd choice. For example, Tom Tancredo who gave Mitt his endorsement as he himself bowed out of the race.
Speaking of endorsements, Romney won the “anti-endorsement” of the Concord (NH) Monitor, which jeered his many flip-flops and called him “phony” and a “disquieting figure” who “surely must be stopped”. BUT note that this paper is liberal-leaning counterweight (or is it paperweight?) to the conservative Manchester Union Leader.
Counterbalance is positive endorsement of Mitt by the Sioux City Journal: “Romney combines an outsider’s new face with a proven track record of success as an executive in both the public and private sectors.”
LOOKING AHEAD beyond Iowa and assuming IOWA finish is either Huckabee-Romney OR Romney-Huckabee (my fearless prediction) then . . .
. . .IF Giuliani dips seriously, Romney is the natural beneficiary. AND if his intraparty enemies run McCain out of the race, Romney again benefits. AND its almost a dead cert that Fred Thompson will drag his lazy behind at least as far as the southern primaries, which yet again benefits Romney, by cutting into Huckabee’s native son appeal below the Mason-Dixon line.
This may be the year when the Midwest rises up and exerts itself in BOTH parties. Among Republicans by knocking down the obnoxious northeast (Giuliani) and equally obnoxious sunbelt (McCain) and the especially irritating old/new south (Huckabee & Paul) in favor of a Michigander who made it back East (like Dewey did) AND out west (like Dewey did not).
On Democratic side, similar dynamic would be hurting Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Edwards and even Hilary, the lost daughter of the prairies who ran away back East and sold her soul to the Seven Sisters, the Ivy League & the New York Yankees by way of LITTLE ROCK fer jaysus sake! The two beneficiaries being of course DENNIS KUCINICH and BARACK OBAMA both as homely AND midwestern as a James Whitcomb Riley pumpkin. But Obama is in MUCH better position to capitalize!
Though to give Hilary credit, whenever she opens her mouth what you hear is 95% midwestern speech, prounciation, turns of phrase. Must sound exceedingly flat & cornfed to Brit ears!
What about Ron Paul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG0oFRGwZEA
http://thebestronpaulvideos.blogspot.com
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/december2007/101207Truth.htm
http://infowars.com/articles/us/ron_paul_radio_ad_freedom_prosperity_peace.htm
Talking of Elections, has Britain Already had its last ever General election, don’t laugh, I’m being Serious.
http://www.eutruth.org.uk
http://thewestminsternews.co.uk
http://www.infowars.com