How much can you make from political betting?
December 29th, 2007
Guest slot by Peter the Punter
Ok, 2007 is all but over and it’s that time of year when all good punters cast a critical eye back over their records and ask themselves where it all went wrong. My own soul-searching takes very little time because it’s all too obvious. My total profit from Political Betting came to approximately £10,000, which is about £12,000 more than I made from the horses and other forms of gambling. Since the time and effort I put in to the latter far exceeds what goes into the former, no prizes for guessing where I’ll be redirecting my efforts next year.
This of course raises some interesting questions, most notably… Just How Much Money Can You Make From Political Betting?
This is far from an academic question for me, so let me begin to answer it by giving a rough breakdown of my profits for the year:
Blair Switch £514
French Presidentials £880
Scottish & Welsh elections £400
Labour Deputy Leader £817
Next Chancellor £187
Australia £1,008
LD Leadership £246
Election date £193
Labour seat markets (non-election) £3,400
Miscellaneous 2,355Total £10,000
The first thing to note is that this list covers nearly all the main political betting markets. The only one missing is Gordon Brown’s ‘election’ on which my profit of about £500 was wiped out by an ill-judged gamble on Charles Clarke (sic), so I netted out to zero on that one, but it was the one and only significant blot on the landscape. The rest was happiness.
Nor do the bare figures tell the whole story. If Blair had held on a few more days, I’d have doubled my ‘switch’ profits, and the Blessed Harriet cost me another £800 by getting home just ahead of The Postman. Moreover, some of these markets were often ‘all green’ which means I was operating in a virtually risk-free environment much of the time.
Nor was there enormous skill involved. Anybody able to log in regularly to Politicalbetting.com might well have achieved similar results and I know for a fact that I am not alone amongst PBers in making this kind of profit. In fact the quality of information here, freely and for the most part honestly given, is such that if you can’t turn a profit, it really is time to quit betting altogether.
So why on earth do I bet on anything but politics? Well, there are some issues.
Markets are irregular and outside election years, the pickings are pretty thin. Liquidity is a major problem, although it’s improving. My loss on Big Ears was due in no small part to the fact that I held a sizeable chunk of all bets placed and couldn’t lay off without severely affecting the market price. This isn’t a problem I’m ever likely to encounter at the Cheltenham Festival.
And then there’s the question of who exactly we are betting against. There’s a real risk that as the Site becomes increasingly recognized as the fount of all knowledge on political betting, we finish up betting with each other. This happens to some extent already and was embarrassingly evident when we challenged Anthony Wells and the IG Index boys over their enterprising but short lived Political Brand Index market. We were too good for them, but there were not enough mugs to create a proper market.
A further issue that has cropped up recently is that we seem to be getting known. Mike now finds it almost impossible to get bets on with Sporting Index and another prominent PBer recently received a warning shot across his bows from one of the Majors. Sidney’s largesse continues unabated but we can’t expect that and similar generosity from his competitors to continue indefinitely. There are indications that the big firms are willing to treat political betting as a loss leader, but unless markets expand to bring in more players, and hopefully more mug-punters of the type that keep betting shops fully engaged, serious (i.e. good) political punters are bound to attract increasing attention.
My guess is that I may have pushed it about as far I can in terms of gross profit for a year but I like a challenge so I am going to set a target of £20,000 for 2008 – but not for myself, for PB.com.
I intend to enlist the support of a couple of like-minded PBers and we’re going to start out with a notional bank of £20,000. Every time we see what we think is a decent bet, we’ll enter it on a score sheet which will be publicly available here on Site. The aim will be to double it by the year end. You can be sure that the notional bets will reflect the real ones which we are having, so if we get anywhere near the target, you can guess that we’re also doing very well thank you.
If anybody is interested in joining me in this venture, please let me know. It will also be interesting to know how you fared in 2007. Was it a profitable year for you too and if so how profitable? (And have you had any accounts closed yet?)
So come on, let’s have your tales – the good, the bad and the gruesome. How was it for you? And do you think you can beat the PB team in 2008? We’ll be posting our scores; don’t be shy about posting yours.
Happy New Year.
Peter Smith (Peter the Punter)
MessageSpace Advertising
This article, and the £20,000 challenge dovetails perfectly with a piece I’m working on - the “Holy Grail” of betting/investing, i.e. Money Management…. Watch this space
High scores from France and Australia point to the invaluable expertise of pb.com’s foreign correspondents. Your second-biggest winner was miscellaneous: what is that?
LabGain GAINED £2400 this year from Political Betting…and he only started in Jun!!!!
1. Look forward to it, Rod.
2 Too numerous to mention, John L, but mostly opening and closing positions on the GE Seats Market with Sporting Index.
Fulsome praise has rightly been lavished on Chris from Paris and Alexander Drake on this Site, from me and many others.
The assistance of Sea Shanty Irish and many others is proving invaluable in respect of the US markets.
My betting is terribly small-time - but I’m geeky enough to keep detailed records! I totted up my totals for the year yesterday:
Blair Switch £318
French Presidential £115
Australia £172
Election Date £ 97
Labour Deputy £ 27
Next Chancellor £ 12
LD Leadership £ 0.85 (!)
Labour leadership (£28)
TOTAL £ 732
Thats £400 more than the combined winnings from my other bets (mostly on F1, with the odd dabble in football managers, interest rates, and other “specials”).
Primary lessons for me are:
1) “Lay the leader” doesnt work nearly as well with Party Leadership markets as it does for, say, premier league managers.
2) I need to be brave, and bet more! I started 2007 with a fund of £150 for non-politics bets, and £100 for politics. That’s a return of a bit over £7 for every £1 “invested”. Contrast that with non-political betting, where I got a return of just under £2. This year, I’m going to commit £500 to politics.
3) I need to seek out new betting opportunities. This is where PB.com really shone for me in the last year, with the French and Australian markets. Rather than just increase the size of my bets, I’m trying to increase the breadth of the areas that I feel confident in betting in - thanks mainly to the experts on PB.
At least £5,000 given that Shadsy reports a £10,000 bet at 1/2 Hillary Clinton at Ladbrokes (previous thread @ 30).
5 That’s the sort of post that fills me with joy, Rory.
Keeping records is an essential pre-requisite of successful punting. You are way above the level at which it can be regarded as an optional extra.
You are also betting within your comfort zone, which is another important rule. The level with which you are comfortable will probably increase as your confidence does, but if you start breaking out into cold sweats, rein in.
The profile of your profits is impressive. I was particularly struck by your LD and Labour Leader results. No, I’m not pulling your leg. The markets on both just didn’t help the punter, so you actually did well to hold your own and not get drawn in to no-value bets by trying to force the issue.
On the whole, I think your results (and mine) indicate how easy political betting can be for Site followers. Let’s hope that applies in 2008 too!
7 I prefer the conventional bookies for events that aren’t long term eg By Elections as opposed to Election timing. I still think the high street bookies can offer better odds than the exchanges who increasingly know as much as us
OT — extortionate interest rates for less well-off voters will not help Labour. The Times reports Marbles credit card rates rising to 33% pa.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3101617.ece
Very interesting. I have no intention of joining the substantial band of losers who fund these successes.
Punter @ 7 - Not only that, but bookies often seem to offer better prices in person, or on the phone than they do on the Internet. There’s a definite trade-off between value and convenience (I’m sorry to say that I’m lazy enough to favour convenience every time!).
8 The conventional bookies often react very slowly to political events, Punter. Time and again we find value in backing with them long after the fundamentals have shifted. ‘Free-money’ is even available from time to time, as you will have noted; just trade off the bookies against Betfair and you’re there.
I suspect the political markets are too small for the conventional bookies to worry about yielding such opportunities. That will change if liquidity increases sufficiently.
10 LOL agingjb! Well nobody is trying to force you! There really is no excuse for a regular PBer being on the wrong side of the equation though.
Well done Peter - clearly a very profitable year! Working it out, I’ve made about £300 this year clear profit, though that doesn’t include the positions I’ve got on the US election for next year, where I’m over £100 up if any of Obama, McCain or Huckabee win their respective nominations, with little loss otherwise. I obviously don’t bet as much as some on here but don’t think I’m doing that badly.
The biggest mistake I made this year was in laying a good chunk of my profits from the Blairswitch and Labour leadership markets on a 2007 election - £40 at 8.4 i.e a potential exposure of about £300. Although this came good eventually, I was consistently convinced that the odds for an election were too short, though events kept moving them inwards. As a result, I was not keen on cutting my losses at what I considered poor odds (and if I have a fault in my betting, it’s watching bad bets go down the plughole rather than minimising the loss part way through), and didn’t want to increase my exposure by betting on what still looked like value. Had I staked the same amount to back an election this year at those odds, then laid off even at evens - and during that period Mike ran his review of in the thread this week that would certainly have been possible - I’d have been £2500 up. Ah well, a win is a win.
Next year offers plenty of good opportunities. The US election from 2004 I think still holds the record for the most staked on a single Betfair market, so the liquidity problem there should be less of an issue. The London mayoral race could be close and uncertainty is always a good thing. For me though, the main election next year will be Baildon ward in Bradford MDC, for which there is as yet no market but where the Conservative challenger will be looking to pull off a surprise win against the Lib Dem incumbent in what should also be a close contest.
er, that should have been Punter @ 8…
PtP @ 7 - Thanks! I get the impression that political betting is dominated by a small group of maybe 50 “serious” punters - perhaps half of whom are regulars here.
Then there’s a much larger number of those who’ll bet large sums on particular political events on a one-off basis.
Either group has the power to seriously move the market, and - as you point out - there’s a limit to how much you can bet whilst still being able to find value. My aim is to keep well below that limit at all time!
PtP @ 12 re value in the betting shop — I am more optimistic because political odds attract a lot of “serious” news coverage, and Sid knows this.
Well I am a complete novice. I made about £120 on the Australian elections due to PtP’s benelong? tip and a few quid on Clegg. Prepared to risk more on US elections and have made a start with the McCain tips on here. I like Rory’s idea of setting aside £500 for this. Although Mike’s cautionary tale of losing £1K by pressing the wrong button will always be at the back of my mind!
14 Thanks David.
I’m moderately surprised you didn’t make more. Although I appreciate you are not one of the Site’s heavier gamblers (and there’s nothing wrong with that) your judgement is generally so sound that I find it hard to believe you can ever finish on the wrong side of a bet. Maybe you should have more self-confidence!
The 2007 ‘non-election’ did my head in. What none of us knew at the time, but which we fully appreciate now, is that Brown was not only surrounded by a bunch of Tufties, he actually listened to them. We were lucky not to get badly burned.
Nest year looks very promising indeed. The US elections look perfectly set up for punter exploitation. The Mayoral ding-dong could get interesting too; two volatile characters are bound to have the odds swinging around.
Do you know a bookmaker who is giving odds on the Baildon election? Somebody in your village, maybe? Does Sidney know about it?
Atb.
re 17. The bookmaker in yesterday’s incident, Spreadfair, agreed to void part of the bet on the grounds of a “manifest error”. My losses were reduced to about £640. I also did some profit-taking yesterday so I ended up down about £300.
In the context of my overall profit on the year of about £12k it was not so bad.
I was just furious with myself.
Mike Smithson
14 Incidentally, David, we’re looking for a Panel Member who should, ideally, be a Conservative. We have a Leftie (StJohn) and an LD (Mike), and I pass muster as a cross-bencher, but for balance we need somebody to play on the right wing. It’s all notional money of course, but if you think you would enjoy it, and have the time, we’d appreciate your assistance.
19 Ah, we’ve all done it, Mike. Bet long enough, and you’ll do it again - and it’s just as likely to bounce the right way next time.
Commiserations though. I know the feeling.
17 The Bennelong advice certainly derived from Alexander although I think I stiffened your resolve when you had your doubts!
It is bog standard punting wisdom to set aside a fund, or ‘bank’, for each aspect of your betting. The size of your bets should relate to the size of each bank. You should never bet so much there is a danger of emptying the bank completely.
PtP @ 18 re Brown “surrounded by a bunch of Tufties”.
Maybe we should have known that. It is common for politicians to be surrounded by a clique of backroom boys who turn out to have no common sense. Blair had Mandelson who could not organise the Millennium Dome (remember surfball?); Cameron’s team sent him to Africa during the floods; and Hague’s lot told him to wear a baseball cap and drink more beer.
Good points this year - deciding that Brown wouldn’t risk an election, earlier on I was convinced he would but had a Damascene conversion! Quite profitable if 2010 is indeed the date. Nicely profitable on Sarkosy although I tossed a bit of it away on Bayrou just in case.
Bad points - 500 voters (and/or late postal votes). I knew that Clegg was massively out in terms of his prices and had become convinced that Huhne would, and should, aqueak it. Heart over head? I don’t think so given the way that the result was so different to the collective ‘wisdom’.
Err, I haven’t got a clue as to the figures but, seeing as per others, I just put £100 or so in the kitty at the start of the year I don’t think it’s much more than £300 return or so (my lack of keeping score being as good a reason as any not to expand!).
Making a bit on Calzaghe as SPOTY muddies the politics figures (I never had the public backing a loser over a winner).
I haven’t done as well as PtP or our host. But I’m very short of Lab seats at the next GE at 289, so I’m optimistic of better things to come….
I’d be happy to part of a syndicate—I offer liquid accounts with most firms. (Not to be sniffed at, when you realise that companies such as both Expekt.com and centrebet charge 2.5% for depositing money).
I bet nearly full-time and have access to some ‘interesting’ non-political info.
24 I just have a feeling that Autumn 2009 or very early 2010 represent good value. I think Brown will allow as much time as he can if they need it but he loves his History and will be desperate to avoid the Sunny Jim comparisons. Even if they are well behind I just think he would not leave it until the last second in June 2010 when there could be no more surprise and he would be boxed in
My very modest form of betting gave me a profit of around £ 150 this year but with no more than £ 5 at risk at any one time . Repeated betting and laying is very time consuming but seems to work in this sort of market . The Baildon ward in Bradford will not give Dave Herdson very good odds . The Conservatives won it in May but the LibDem defender next year could hold on with his personal vote . I would have thought the Conservatives a very slight favourite not the LibDem but will be interested if a bookmaker does offer odds .
27 Which Constituency. IIRC you have slight chances in East and North
28 Baildon ward is in Shipley parliamentary constituency .
OK. Here’s mine.
Non Spread.
Blair Switch £128
Blair announcement £ 112
GB next leader £ 567
French Presidential £210
Scottish Election £220
Labour Deputy Leader £65
Next Chancellor £79
Australia £500
Ealing Southall £72
Lib Dem leadership £47
Next Taoiseach -£80
Spread. Closed positions.
Gordon Brown Weeks £860
General Election seats £ 6539
Total +£9319.
29 Rather irrelevant for the Lib Dems then except for way way long term if you overtake Labour to challenge Conservatives
I think PtP’s proposal is very interesting. There is no doubt that collectively there is a lot of knowledge and talent in the PB community. How to harness this? There are a number of difficulties. The main one being the ability to get a sizeable bet on, given the poor liquidity in the spread markets and on Betfair and also the relatively low limits that the Bookies set on political bet stakes. Secondly, how does the panel make quick decisions when there is a rapidly changing political story?
Interesting concept and I look forward to hearing the views of others.
Political markets often swing all over the place with the result you can, if you can spot the possible trend earlu enough, bet and lay to make money fairly readily.
That is generally how I bet on the political markets, I’m looking at swings rather than just the winner in any situation enabling me to bet and lay. At heart, most punters still seek the winner.
The spot the trend approach takes a bucket loads of theorising and you can look at bit of a goat when it doesn’t work (thank you John Edwards) and a bit of nerve (eg a short odds ay on Clinton the belief she’d hit a bump, she has but it took months and months to arrive)
The biggest problem I can see in the short term is groupthink, something that the interestingly named Sea Shanty Irish has nodded at over the US primaries. Groupthink is great when its plain wrong but when its informed it can seriously reduce profit.
On a business level political betting is an adjunct and should be seen as such unless you see it as an occasionally profitable hobby. If you look at anything run on a business basis there are a few bits of business that make disproportionate amount of profit. Much of the rest of the profitable business isnt anything special but its part of the turnover and contributes to the overall bottom line. Sadly we can’t always just dispense with the less profitable and solely focus on the niche that gives us the best margins, because those margins may not last and our overall profit can be affected by too narrow a focus. We can seek to squeeze more out of it though and bear in mind that the less profitable might just need some tweaking to get more out of.
30 Yes, I forgot about Next Tea-Sock. That was one of my losers too.
No matter. We can blame that on Yokel.
34. Aye that was a bollocks alright.
35 Oh, sorry Yokel. Didn’t know you were there.
Only kidding, of course.
36..Smart arse…..
37 LOL!
37 Any chance Bertie will get the heave ho in 2008. The Irish seem to love him so much he reminds you of that Louisiana Governor and his quip as the only ways they would not elect him
39. Have to say that I havent been following it recently because there has been so many moments when he was meant to be in trouble and the sod seems to just carry on.
Apart from the pwersonal scandals 2008 will bring a tougher political environment. The Celtic Tiger has hit the skids a bit, they got the Lisbon referendum and so on.
40 Well he can always give financial seminars after to make money. I’d pay to hear how I don’t need a bank account……..
Where can you be on invidual seats for the GE?
Apologies for my ignorance (gosh, a politician admitting that he doesn’t know something)
24 UKPaul
Bayrou and Huhne were both technically good bets. The results showed they were massively overpriced, particularly Huhne. Before the count, he was about 5/1? Wish all my 5/1 shots performed that well.
25 David
The current proposal is purely for notional money. The idea is to demonstrate beyond dispute how profitable political betting can be.
As regards your other suggestion, can we talk about it at the Party?
42 Barry
You have to wait till much closer the election, but then all the major firms price them up.
27 Yes, Mark, day trading does pay dividends with political betting, but it is time consuming.
45 Yes but not all 650 right. I think they only take 30 or 40 marginal seats that you can bet on individually
32 StJohn
I don’t think there’s a problem with the timing element. Any of the panel can strike a bet at any time - as long as the entry is timed.
Don’t forget this is notional money, although I expect the Panel will follow its own recommendations.
Up around 1800 on political betting this year, mainly through backing Sarkozy, but also made about 500 on the Scottish elections.
Only significant loss was on Milliband for PM, but it was a good value bet at the time so can’t second guess myself. Good year, and if a Tory MP defects before midnight on Monday would be better still
Funny thing betting when you look back over the year. I do usually have a bias towards backing odds on favourites (Hillary, Authorised, Kauto Star) which i am trying to be conscious of when assesing value.
Have to say I wouldn’t have done as well on the Scottish elections were it not for Chris’s seats predictor, and I was able to be all green on the French after Jack W and others pointed out the value in hedging Bayrou, so thanks to all concerned.
43 - I’m pretty good at spotting prices that are good value, my failing is that anytime there is an obvious winner I can’t bring myself to lump everything on just in case (as per Australia).
33 Yokel
Yes, political betting lends itself very well to trend spotting, and I guess that’s where most of my profits arise.
Group think is a real danger. We saw it very clearly with the LD election. There was no objective evidence to justify the prices of the two principles. In the end, the favorite scraped home but Groupthink had made him a crazy price.
Yes (again) I have that ‘adjunct’ dilemma. No doubt about it, the fat profits come from PB, but can I afford to give up the low-margin stuff?
48 “Only significant loss was on Milliband for PM.”
You were unlucky, PaulM. I understand he came within a whisker of standing. I spent a lot of time take the mickey out of Herbert Proper (one of my favorite pastimes) who kept saying that ‘Miliband would be persuaded’, but apparently HP was very nearly right. Never mind the money, that would have been truly sickening.
50 You weren’t the only one, UKPaul. Australia was so counter-intuitive, it took courage to go in heavy. It was a rare example of ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ being wrong. Fortunately, I cleaned up on Bennelong, although that was a bit of a close run thing.
53 I am right on 47 or not
54 Yes, I believe so. Might be a few more next time round though.
Peter - I’m interested, but unfortunately don’t get quite the time I used to have to read pb.com as it grows ever more massive so I doubt I’ll be much use.
So Peter - you and Mike at least clear £10K a year plus through political betting.
So who loses? The bookies a fair bit - and I imagine for W Hill this is a loss leader but good for PR and company profile.
But for what you make on the exchanges, is it one punter (eg. a Huhne groupie) losing as much as you win, or a hundred each losing 1% of what you win? What do you reckon?
55 Annoying because you won’t get great odds. For instance if you wanted to bet on what you think is a H&WG in 2010 would they take the bet
SBS @ 57 — who loses on the exchanges?
Even exchange losses might be borne by bookmakers if people are using Betfair to arb or hedge other bets. For instance, a lot of people on here will have backed Obama and Huckabee at 50/1 in the shops, and will have laid off on Betfair now that their chances are obvious. So even if Obama (say) is elected and the BF layers lose, they won’t really lose.
Peter - O holy one:
You are a *legend*. You are a saint. You *are* a Prophet!!!
By bugger1ng about on betting markets, you’ve managed to make HALF my net annual income just by p1ssing about on betfair et al.
That’s crazy.
Remind me again, why do I go to work?
I’m a total pu$$y. Far too nervous on betting markets to pull any big money. I lack b@lls and bail out whenever I get the jitters - i.e. on almost every bet.
My total profits for the year??
Massive.
Wait for it…..
…
..
£96
That’s it. Ninety-bloody-six quid. Pathetic, eh?
What’s worse, is that around £63 of that has to offset against my stupid “punt” on Northern Rock; which was a bit desperate of me.
I need to grow some god-damn balls and stop playing like a chicken.
I actually had a fairly poor year with respect to political profits (only found you guys quite late on in 2007) - just over £300 (mostly on Labour leadership and Celtic parliaments) whereas last year was a stella year thanks to the US Midterms. I made about the same again on sports, even though I rarely bet on sports - largely thanks to £30 whilst tipsy on France to beat NZ in the RWC at 8/1.
Could have been a fantastic year by my standards if Bayrou, Chris Huhne, and Alan Johnson had all done just a little better - I rarely bet on favourites , except to cover liability, when perhaps I should. I didn’t feel confident enough to get involved in the Australian elections, which seems to have been a boon for many of you. Not too many clangers, but not enough risks taken either.
Will be hoping to put a bet on every House, Senate, and Gubernatorial race as well as Presidential race by State come November, so am saving hard.
Very informative thread. Btw has anyone noticed the almost complete absence of troll/astroturf posts over the last few days? Could it perhaps be a seasonal thing?
57 SBS
It’s an interesting question and one which people like Shadsy and Aaron are better qualified to answer than me, but I’ll have a go.
Clearly it’s a zero-sum game; less than zero in fact if you take account of the costs of administration.
Who are the losers? Well, mugs basically. That’s true of all forms of betting, but in political betting, you do get a special type of mug. This is the mug who bets on what he wants to happen. This is what first introduced me to PB. I was working at a stockbrokers during the 1997 election and my colleagues, Tories to a man, all piled down the betting shop one day to avail themselves of the 7/2 which the local bookie was ‘generously’ offering. I generously offered to take their bets for them, but they demurred. I took the hint however and placed a large spread bet on Labour, thinking (correctly) that with mugs like that around, there had to be some value in the Labour price.
Incidentally, I believe our genial host got into it in much the same way.
I suspect that the mug betting is mostly a lot of individuals betting small amounts in favour of their own team, but never underestimate how much money is punted by fools wishing to be separated by it. The legendary Terry Ramsden, having built up a massive fortune in the City, squandered £54m with Hills alone. I don’t think he bet on politics but you can be sure that there are some high rollers out there who will toss away few thousand quid on an intuitive political punt if the mood takes them.
The difference between us and them? We know the form. Stick to events where you know the form, and you won’t go far wrong.
61 Any predictions for Swansea Kairdiff and Newport next May
47 - at the last election I priced over 100 seats; many seats really just aren’t worth it since they are over 99% certain.
The problem for the bookies is that these markets will only really appeal to the very clued-up - so you’ll only take a handful of bets, but they’ll mostly be ones you don’t want to! Regular customers will bet on seat totals / majorities etc.
58 Punter - Sorry, but ‘H&WG’ ?
No comprendo.
Hornsey & Wood Green as a shock result as opposed to say Welwyn Hatfield which anyone could guess
67 OK. Think Aaron has answered you though.
Btw, has anybody but me noticed that we are up to 69 posts and we haven’t had a single Creature drop in yet?
Those Creatures, they hate betting threads. Like offering garlic sauce to a vampire.
20. Hi Peter. Apologies for the delay in replying - I’m now back from VP after watching a disappointing 3-1 defeat. If you’re keen to have my opinions for the panel, I’d be happy to join in. Perhaps it’s something we could have a chat about at the party?
You’re right in thinking that I didn’t have many losers. The only market I came out of ‘down’ was the one on ‘next chancellor’, where I’d backed Straw at 6/1 and Timms (yes, I know, but he was Brown’s deputy at No11), at 20/1, both of which looked like value at the time. Political markets apart, the thing I was happiest about this year was backing England and South Africa in the RWC at the QF stage. The cricket world cup went less well - the India vs Bangladesh match in particular!
One problem I have with betting is that I’m not able to place bets at work (understandably!), which does inhibit me from going in too heavily on most markets as change can happen quite quickly and if I’m unable to do anything about it for hours at a time, that would leave me more exposed to ‘events’ than I’d like. That’s a particular problem with politics as many of the things that do happen, take place during working hours on weekdays - exactly the time I’m unable to act.
I think it must be, Henri (62). Presumably Tory Central Office has sent its staff off for a well-deserved break - it has to be recognised that they have all been working extremely hard. But no doubt all the astroturfers will be back with us on the 2nd January or thereabouts.
72. Creatures come in all shapes and forms, not just Tories. It is always possible that only the most committed gamblers would spend their holiday time off from work on a betting website. I myself have only popped in two or three times over the Christmas period.
69 Ok but I don’t think H&WG was an option in 2005. If you request a bet on a seat they are not carrying will they let you or not
72 “Creatures come in all shapes and forms, not just Tories.”
Indeed, Socrates, Creatures come in all colors. You cannot identify them from their Party affiliations, only from their complete and utter detachment from reality.
Astroturfers of course may likewise represent any party, and Tarquins are just Tarquins.
65 - sorry, I was having my supper!
Cardiff will go from Lib Dem plurality to Lib Dem outright majority, I am fairly sure, at the moderate expense of Labour. The Lib Dems are fighting hard on local issues - schools’ reorganisation, Llanishen reservoir being developed, and Post Offices remaining open (apolitical friend I met today lives in Splott [Cardiff South & Penarth], and she said she gets more leaflets about PO closures than letters handled by the PO, but it seems to be favourably taken).
Newport should see Labour lose councillors in swings to both the Tories and Lib Dems (more likely the latter, though) moving the council into NOC territory, but I reckon Labour can be fairly sure of being the biggest group. If they are threatened in places like Malpas, they are in trouble. BNP may stand in Newport as well.
Swansea is a real box of tricks. They have so many independents, about a quarter of a pretty large council, that I don’t know what happens. Swing to Tories and maybe LD, but not sure how many Independents are staying on, etc.
That’s my reading, but I’m only really confident on the Cardiff prediction.
61 Casino
I do hope you are taking the pi*s because I would be seriously embarrassed if I thought anybody was putting me on a pedestal for any reason other than to take my photo. On the assumption you are joshing, I would like to point out…
In many respects, it is a job for me. I still do some tax consultancy work but find I am less and less interested in it and more and more interested in betting, and particularly political betting. Since this has proved profitable, I’ve been able to cut down on the proper work so that I don’t actually earn more than about £10 per year now. That’s fine, as long as I can clear about another £10k from betting. The total is nothing like I earned in the City but I disposed of my family a while back (legally) so £20k a year does me fine now. But I do have to keep winning, otherwise it’s back to the tax mines.
£96? Well that’s £96 more than most people make. Don’t knock it. As for more balls, be careful just how brave you get. Fear is the gambler’s friend. Bet only in your comfort zone, and enjoy it. There’s no other justification for getting involved.
Btw, I owe you some sensible replies to some sensible questions you put to me a while back. I have them saved, and will answer when I have time, which should be any year now.
75 - What are Tarquins?
78 People who become discredited because of their assinine comments who then change their name so as not to be recognised. They are of course quickly discredited under their new name, so change again in the vain hope that they will be taken seriously again. They repeat the process ad nauseam.
Thank you PtP - why are they called this? Is this one of your unofficial Cockney rhyming slang words?!
Xmas/NewYear greetings to all.
Have had handsful with nappies, Lightning McQueen etc, so have only popped into browse. It’s weird focussing your eyes beyond 70cm.
I don’t punt all that much (pb.com is a great source of candour), but my amateur betting highlight of 2007 was the ES by-election, right to the last minute there were some v. optimistic/generous Tory? types ready to part with their cash despite all logic.
80 No, Morus. The name was suggested one nite by UKPaul when we taking the pi*s out of all the silly sods who come on here under assumed names to make comments nobody wants to read. It somehow seemed to capture their vapid idiocy and the nickname stuck.
82 - It really does!
O/T - NYT has a good article on the minutiae of Iowa retail politics which I quite enjoyed - sort of made me wish we had a similar thing over here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/us/politics/30vote.html?_r=3&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
If you can’t be bothered reading it, it says that Obama and Hillary are aiming to expand the number of people voting, especially their key demographics. Edwards is assuming that turnout is fairly static, so is using models to work out which voters who have previously voted are most likely to go for him.
Something we have addressed, but not much, is that by virtue of having taken FEC money, McCain and Edwards are now limited to spending no more than $49.9m in the primaries, so are having to tailor campaigns to their budget, rather than vice versa.
62 Morus
Your contributions have been very welcome here. Frankly, we need more punters on Site. It is no coincidence that the quality of postings improves when there’s a solid betting theme, although the number of postings usually drops.
Your bets on Bayrou, Huhne and Johnson were good ones. They were all value, and as I keep saying, if you consistently back the value, you must win in the long run.
The US elections should be a bean feast. Apart from anything esle, crazy US gambling laws make it difficult for US citizens to bet on their own elections. That takes out whole populations of punters who know what they’re doing and leaves a very high proportion of mugs for us to exploit.
Roll on the Primaries, and all the rest!
Creatures, Astroturfers and Tarquins?
76 Yes I am rather worried the BNP may have a chance of getting a Councillor in Newport. That huge Ringlands estate bears some disturbing resemblances to some of the Barking areas. As for seats you’re probably right but watch out for sharp division between the two Westminster seats. The Tories naturally are focusing entirely on West the Lib Dems on East. Labour of course have to fight both and could be stretched and could have some tough calls in resources
Cardiff. I agree LD majority. I think Cardiff West will hold firm for them but.. that’s it. I think we’ll see major Lib Dem advances in Cardiff South (The Tories will make hay in the Vale bit), Cardiff Central will become monolithically Lib Dem and in North the Tories will as if they weren’t already be back with a vengeance.
In Swansea I agree who knows. It should all be teed up for the LDs but they seem asleep. They may yet benefit by default but if the Lds did assisted staus I think their Swansea mob would be on it. They have a real chance there and are not grabbing it
I am very new to betting, never having bet on anything before. Could anyone just give me a few pointers on how to avoid becoming a mug? (Anything on how spread betting works would be really appreciated. Thanks.
85 LOL! I can see we are going to have to produce a short handbook of PB terminology. Apologies to those who know already, but…
Creatures (Of The Night) = nutcases, who often arrive after the pubs turn out and post all manner of insane and unitelligible comments, usually unrelated to either betting or politics.
Astroturfers = Party hacks, quite possibly paid ones, who know this Site has a good reputation and think that by coming on here and beating the drum for their own particular Party, they are enhancing its reputation. Unlike Creatures and Tarquins, they can be dangerous, because they may affect betting patterns, although that is not often their objective.
Tarquins - see 79.
3 - I am SO pleased for you LabGAIN……
So double your total income for the year then??? LOL
87 Buy Mike’s book, G.
Meanwhile, avoid spread betting - it is volatile and risky. Work your way up to it through conventional bookmakers first, and then Betfair.
And follow the regular posters on this site. You won’t go far wrong.
87, 90
agreed. Mike’s book is fantastic. Even if you just bet a few quid like me, it is interesting if you like that sort of thing. And if we did not, we would be somewhere else.
83. Interesting article Morus, thanks. Whenever I see campaigns looking to “break the mould” like Clinton and Obama’s in getting new voters I get suspicious.
To this end, I think Edwards is still in with a reasonable shot with his more traditional campaign, even though I can’t stand him personally, and I’ve just taken some of the 6/1 Ladbrokes are offering (vesus 3/1 with Vcbet who’ve had an Iowa market up a lot longer).
71 No apologies necessary David, and by virtue of that post you are hereby co-opted onto the Panel! [Resistance is useless…]
Seriously, we need a Tory, and sensible ones are thin on the ground.
I was big on Timms too. By rights, he should have been considered but what we knew much less about Brown’s mentality at the time. With hindsight, Timms was never in with a chance.
Btw, where is VP? Villa Park? You were watching a reserve game?
92 Thanks Cavemen, you saved me the trouble of scouring the sites tonite. I’ve been thinking for a while that Edwards could pull it off in Iowa. 6/1 is way too big and I just took £50.
I reckon Shadsy is busy changing the odds right now!
95. What would be the effect on Obama if Edwards were to win Iowa?
I’m thinking bad. But very good for Hilary.
What if Edwards won Iowa than Obama SC?
Bad for Hilary but not necessarily good for the other two.
Morus at 83: thanks for the interesting reference (thought you were from Portugal, obviously mixing you up!). It’s not *that* different to good operations here: using the marked register (which shows who voted) and cross-indexing to canvass returns and demographic data is what we all aspire to: I’d obviously spend more effort trying to influence a Guardian reader who always votes than a Hello! reader who has never voted. The choice between writing to occasional voters who always support you *if* they vote, or regular voters who often don’t vote for you, is harder, though.
Creatures are I think not so much incomprehensible as madly and pointlessly abusive. They’re often astoturfers too - ‘Nobody is ever going to vote for you criminals, you’re gonna get WIPED OUT and sent to prison WHERE YOU BELONG’, that sort of thing. A silent shrug is usually the best response. There’s been much less of it lately.
84 - Thanks PtP - and Astroturfers (fake grass roots - geddit!?) is still one of my favourite political terms!
87 - “The Political Punter” is a must read. If only you’d asked before Christmas …
92 - I have the same feeling. I think there is an element of him not being able to splash money on new snow-shovels and pre-caucus party sandwich platters, but I wonder if the reason the others are looking to ‘new voters’ is because they don’t have the same qulity of data on voters from 2004 as he does. Who is really desperate in Iowa? I’m putting £20 on Edwards to win Iowa, just on the basis of his organisation.
To get the book go here -
http://www.harriman-house.com/pages/book.htm?BookCode=131104&ginPtrCode=&identifier=9e13992383897a443da93dc58546551f
95 G
It depends on who comes second. Obama can afford to lose to Edwards but mustn’t finish behind Hillary. Also, the gap between the three will be important. If it’s very close, it doesn’t matter too much, but if, say, Hillary finishes a poor third, she’s in trouble.
Hillary however can afford to lose Iowa much more than the other two can. It’s only if she loses Iowa and NH that her campaign is in real trouble.
Iowa is very difficult to call because of the caucus system. NH is difficult to call because it is close. If possible, cover all your bases.
94, 97. PtP, Morus. I think we discussed Iowa on the board a week or so back before Xmas when Shadsy first put up prices for Iowa Caucus vote % performance.
I pointed out that the 16/1 they are offering for Edwards to get 30-35% was a good win proxy price in a 3 horse race, and that he got 32% of votes in 2004.
93. Someone mention the Villa? 1-2 win at Wigan. PfP and I should see our spread position on Villa improve tonight!
92. Caveman. Normally I follow your advice but on this occasion I won’t. I agree with Nick Palmer’s view on the last thread. The Iowan electorate have a chance of deciding the next President of the US. The Democrat nominee will be Clinton or Obama. So why waste your chance of shaping history by voting for Edwards. Doesn’t make sense to me. I think Edwards will be squeezed out in Iowa.
96 - Portugal? Hmmm … not a bad idea!
Sorry if it sounded like I was showing a lack of respect for UK campaign methods - by “I wish it was like this over here” I was talking about the whole streets going to parties together before caucusing (instead of voting), with free cookies and snowshovels for all!
I know this is idealised, and turnout won’t be *that* high, but no-one in my entire block of flats in London gives a damn about elections, and it sounds like everybody in Iowa is going crazy for this…
“it sounds like everybody in Iowa is going crazy for this…”
hmm! Turnout in US elections is poor even by UK standards. Did the turnout in the last US presidential elections get over 50%?
100 Thanks Caveman, and still 6/1 to be outright winner on Ladbrokes(vs lay price of 6 [5/1] on Betfair (up to £46)).
101 “Someone mention the Villa?”
No. Absolutely not. Nobody at all. Who are they?
This is a political betting Site. Perhaps you clicked on the wrong link.
104. If you have an intrade account you can lay Edwards for Iowa at 22 (approx 7/2).
103 - 60.7% turnout in 2004, highest since 1968. Point taken though - I know it’s just the way they make it sound.
I do wonder if the people who *do* vote are more likely to be active party members than in this country though. There is a good element of direct democracy in much of the US, particularly regarding School Boards, or referenda on local issues, and massive numbers of voluteers assist campaigns - some high schools even give credit for it! That’s the element I envy.
105. In answer to your question, “The greatest team the world has ever seen!”
That clicking the wrong button thing can prove expensive, I understand.
when exactly are these Primaries and caucuses? (I ought to know, but I don’t)
Anybody with a strong opinion on how far out the Clinton odds might drift before Super Duper Tuesday, especially in the case of 2nd/3rd place in Iowa and losing to Obama in NH? Very green on Edwards, mildly green on Obama, and waiting for the right moment to hedge on Hillary..
Some states have separate dates for their Dem v GOP primary (South Carolina for example)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008
107: yes, agreed about civic engagement in the US. Socialists like me have to acknowledge that the idea in a free enterprise culture that people should *voluntarily* help make their community work has a bit of a track record there. I used to know a not particularly well-off American who paid a regular sum to support his local radio station because he liked their music. Would any of us fork out for Radio Shropshire? It’s the government’s job, innit?
108 Erm…I’d be careful, StJohn, about making light hearted clicking comments whilst Mike is around. Nobody has ever been warned off this Site - yet - but there’s always a first.
112 - Radio Shropshire? Why, what do they play? Any local radio station that vowed never to play Phil Collins or Celine Dion would get a couple of quid of my money!
110 - She’s still polling well in Florida, which gives a good chance of recovery before Super Tuesday. If she fails to win either IA or NH, and maybe comes third in the former, as long as it’s fairly close (within 7.5% of winning in each case), I still can’t see her drifting beyond 7/5 for the nomination.
112 Well here in Brighton some fans of a French radio station called FIP did start a fighting fund to help keep it on air (had been re-broadcast illegally in the city) So I think the answer is: if something’s good enough, people will support it. Not sure where that leaves Radio Shropshire mind you.
109 Augustus
Primaries are educational establishments for young children.
Caucuses are a type of race, described in some detail in Alice In Wonderland.
97 A fair point. I Think we can all see Obama and certainly Hillary recovering from Iowa. By contrast Edwards is the 3rd man he badly needs the momentum from there. If he doesn’t get it I can’t see it. On desperation grounds alone he looks a shot. It is a simple must for him. BTW replied to you at 86
110 Hmmm…the trouble with that position, Cissbury, is that if she does happen to win Iowa, her price will plummet, and stay nailed to the floor until she becomes President.
I don’t think this will happen, but it could.
1. Yes, I’ve had a good year – 25 political events i all for me. Major wins in the French presidential, Irish, Danish and Norwegian elections. No major loss, but a few minor ones, such as Huhne, and a latent loss on Ivanov for Russian president (but at 14/1 it was value). I will not post any figures, but I will tell you in person on the 25th, as I’m 90% sure I’ll come to London for the PB Party.
2. Paddypower has for all practical purposes closed down my account, offering limits lower than 1 euro – I think it was my Irish election winnings that did it. One Nordic bookmaker has also lowered their limits to near uninteresting levels.
3. If you are considering a non-UK panel member, I would consider it.
4. And a fresh tip: Huck is struggling with a mountain of gaffes, and the last two polls shows Romney leading again in Iowa. VChandler offering 2/1 on Romney – a value bet. And I agree with Caveman and PtP that Edwards at 6/1 in Iowa is value.
119. I think there’ll be a massive feeling of anticlimax if Hilary wins Iowa.
119 Fair point, but a Hillary win in Iowa would be a) fairly narrow and b) seen in the context of imminent NH. Assuming Obama still ahead in NH polls, I don’t think it would drop massively.. unless and until she wins NH against the odds.
i won £50,000 betting on watford losing 50 home matches in a row lol
118 - I think we’re in agreement on those - take your point about the split in Newport between the parliamentary seats. That will be one of those occasions where the local elections actually will shape our thinking quite markedly on the GE.
120 - Good news on likelihood of you making the party - warped congratulations on being successful enough to get shut down as well!
119 - true, but then the VP market will start hotting up to compensate!
120 Jan
1. Ivanov was a great bet, regardless. Didn’t you hedge it though? Be great if you could make the Party. Half price for Norwegians.
2. PP are getting meaner with my bets too - even the horsey ones.
3. Welcome aboard, Jan!
4. Noted with thanks. I’m beginning to find it difficult to understand why Romney is not outright favorite for the Republican nomination.
Btw, I’ll need your email address. Please send it to me at arklebar@talktalk.net
Thanks.
If Edwards wins Iowa you’ll hear me from this side of the water. I think turnout is the key. Edwards seems to have settled on a very solid base and needs a bit of persuasion to come his way to win.
120. This perhaps supports my fears that McCain just isnt going to get there in NH. A Romney comeback in Iowa, which is what it would be would certainly give him a shove in NH. The question is, if Huckabee went down in Iowa, what happens to his campaign. I don’t see too many places on the early slate states wherwe he’s going to win.
Shock of shocks, is the next bit of value big Fred Thompson or Guiliani?
122 Hope you are right, Cissbury, but I’m not betting the house on it.
All very uncertain in the US at the moment.
93. VP = Valley Parade (technically the Corals Windows Stadium these days, but as if anyone calls it that outside of the paid employees of the club!).
120. Great news if you can make the party. I’m sure many on here regard your tips and opinions as highly as anyones on the site.
126 Yokel
Guiliani’s price has been coming in again on Betfair. I can offer no explanation for this.
As regards Edwards, I am not ruling out the possibility that I will be hearing your dulcet tones wafting across the Irish Sea on Jan 3rd.
120/125: the latest poll shows Romney 9% ahead in Iowa, but two almost concurrent polls show Huckabee ahead - really not something to put money on, I’d think, though the Intrade prices on the Real Clear Politics site do give good odds for Romney, and his better organisation ought to tell.
The worrying thing for us lefties is that the national line-ups show nearly all these guys running any Democrat close. If that’s the position with the Republican race such a shambles, what happens when one of them gets selected?
130 - looks good for GOP in 2008. Democrats wont win
128 My apologies, David. Confusing Valley Parade with Villa PArk was a blunder of the greatest magnitude, not least because it caused StJohn to emerge from the sepulchre.
Mea culpa.
130 Nick - That 9% comes from A.R.G., otherwise known as Aaaarrrrgh!!!!!!!!! They make BPIX look professional.
All the same, they can’t be wholly discounted, especially in view of Huckabee’s attack of foot-in-mouth syndrome.
Can’t see any Republican other than McCain running the Democrats close, but it’s a way off yet.
132. Not to worry.
130. One of my poorer predictions in the start of year competition (when’s the one for 2008 going to be published btw?), was Royal for the French presidency. One of the things that can generally be relied upon is that no matter how bad things are in France for the right, the left will still find a way to lose. Only one Socialist has won the presidency there in the last 50 years.
Likewise, it’s surprising how frequently the Democrats lose elections they shouldn’t have (or even ones they probably won, sort of!). The last Democrat landslide was in 1964 - before the Civil Rights legislation lost the South, and though the reasons for that loss are more or less history now, the political legacy lingers. In fact, only one Democrat has won back-to-back since FDR - not good form (and he was helped by the intervention of a third party candidate both times, though especially in 1992).
Logically, they really shouldn’t lose this one. They should choose a candidate earlier, from a stronger field and the Republican incumbent is as unpopular as any president has been, with no member of the administration even seeking the nomination - a first for over a century. And yet, and yet.
133 - I agree that the Dems have a much better chance (more talented field, active base, united party, no incumbancy to overcome), and that McCain is the best-placed GOP candidate to make it close.
However, I have always suspected that a balanced increase in money spent makes a US race tighter, irrespective of the lead before spending is ramped. If this is to be the most expensive election in history (over $1 *billion*), I can see there being so much advertising/mud contributing to a maelstrom of accusations and a surfeit of information, that (by virtue of voter-overload) even a fairly poor GOP candidate will manage 47%. That doesn’t leave much margin for serious errors by the Dems.
134 - your team are the only one who are a bigger pile of shyte at home than watford are……
LOLOL
134 David
The Republicans are massively overpriced. One of the first bets I’ll be putting up as a Panel member is a big GOP buy on Betfair, currently 2.76.
134: David, you must admit that FDR winning in 1992, 47 years after his death, was quite an achievement.
130/133 You are both disregarding the huge Iowa poll mentioned by Bob Novak today (sample of 15.000 republicans, if you can believe that), which showed Romney 30, Huck 26. You’ll find it at Rasmussen.
I have a bet on Huck in Iowa (at 14/1!), but am hedging this now.
138. As it’s Christmas, I’ll forgive you that! You know perfectly well what I meant!
137. I’d agree with that. At least when it came to putting money down (some time after the New Year), I came to my senses and backed Sarkozy. A similar move in the US looks very reasonable - especially at those odds.
136. We could be doing better, it is true - though actually, after a poor start to the season, we were unbeaten at home in the league since October 3rd until today. At least lots of people turn up to watch it.
Sorry if someone posted:
The other poll(American Res. Group) shows:
Romney: 32
Huck: 23
McCain:11
Thompson:7
Giuliani:6
Paul:6
And on the Democratic side
Clinton:32
Obama and Edwards:24
etc, etc
140 lolol lots of people suffer at watford too!
You will be ok - you wont go down - not with dag+red and mansfield to make life easier…..
133 I agree McCain
135 I can’t see any GOP candidate but McCain winning. Sure Rudi too appeals outside the GOP but would provoke a revolt. For all their personal dislike I think the right would swallow McCain but not Guiliani
141 - ARG headline: “Ron Paul draws level with Giuliani!”
144 “…And Mickey Mouse surges!”