politicalbetting.com

Will McCain and Clinton be the main beneficiaries?

With exactly one week to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race the big question this afternoon is how will such a global event impact on Iowa and New Hampshire - the first states to decide on the candidates?

As the Politco site observes - “Bloody images of Pakistan in turmoil, which will dominate newspapers and TV news just as Iowa voters are making their final decision and the caucuses are only a week away, will remind voters that this is a dangerous world. And the aftermath — still very unclear in the chaos surrounding Bhutto’s death — will test the agility of the presidential campaigns in dealing with an unexpected and momentous event; a dry run for daily life at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.”

There is an argument for saying that American voters, particularly in a places like Iowa, are very parochial and in the end it will be domestic matters which will determine their votes.

On the face of it such a dramatic event is a reminder of the seriousness of the decision voters will be taking. It’s here where some are saying that McCain and Clinton might have the edge and that Huckabee and Obama might just come off second best. In a dangerous world, the argument will go, you need experience.

Team Obama, however, can argue is that it is the established approach to US foreign policy that has made the world much more unstable and that their man can help America to relate to the world community better.

Who knows at this stage? The next few days could be fascinating.

In the betting the Clinton price has tightened to 0.51/1 while McCain is the 4.4/1 third favourite in the GOP contest.

Mike Smithson

Defeat threatened on terror limits and John Rentoul says “it’s all over”

On what must be the first “conventional” front page in a long time the Independent, the normally left-leaning paper, reports a ComRes survey of Labour MPs which suggests that the government is heading for a commons defeat if it presses ahead with plans to extend the limit on detention without trial to 42 days

The survey found at least 38 Labour MPs would rebel against - four more than are necessary to defeat the measure. The paper notes that: “Potential rebels include a string of former ministers and senior backbenchers that goes beyond the “usual suspects” of Labour refuseniks.”

Inside the paper, under the heading “We can dabble in parallel universes, but in the real one it’s all over for Gordon Brown” the political editor of the Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul, looks at prospect for the PM and questions whether a recovery is possible at all.

As far as I can recall this is the first general election prediction by a major commentator in the mainstream media that Brown cannot win.

Rentoul, a Blair biographer and a long-standing critic of Brown, argues that the most damaging story before Christmas was the reported comment by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, that Brown and Alistair Darling were “unable to focus because morale throughout the government is so low”.

On the polls Rentoul refers to Andy Cooke’s guest slot here on Politicalbetting on Monday on one of “the myths that might comfort Brown’s demoralised troops: that the Government tends to recover in the opinion polls as an election approaches.” He suggests that even if there is a Brown recovery in the polls then the PM still faces “an impossible task”.

General election betting is here.

Mike Smithson

When David Steel played the toupee card

Lots has been written about the nastiness of this year’s battle for the Lib Dem leadership. Certainly the “Calamity Clegg” revelation appears to have been a pivotal moment. But was it as dirty as when David Steel beat John Pardoe for the leadership of the Liberal Party in 1976?

In that battle it was thought that Pardoe was the choice of party activists while Steel had the “establishment” and the “armchair members” on his side. As things got hotter Steel made a remarkable intervention. This is how Simon Hoggart recalled it in the Guardian last year.

Back in 1976 David Steel, a tough political knife-fighter, knew that his opponent, John Pardoe, was easily riled and that his ill-temper could end any chance he had. So he mused in front of two reporters (me and the man from the Daily Mail, as it happens) about Pardoe’s missing bald patch. Where had it gone? When the articles appeared, Pardoe duly went berserk, talking about “descending into the sewer” and the “drip drip drip of the total lie.” Steel won easily.

Mike Smithson

Keeping you entertained throughout the holiday

Thanks to Rod Crosby for all he did yesterday providing the constant stream of political trivia questions which kept us amused on Christmas Day. This worked brilliantly - there were 275 comments which compares with the paltry 16 contributions that the site got on Xmas Day 2006.

For Boxing Day we have StJohn’s PB Cross-word. I have no idea how hard this is going to and I think that keen cross-word experts are going to have to print the page off - but it does look very interesting.

Across

1. Mystery poster conceals most of thong from minister (4,5).
6. Lady was a strange sort (5).
9. Allowance given to President (5).
10. Speaker portrayed as a hot and broody mixture (9).
11. Politician let Comrade Blair run amok (7,8).
13. 3/1 Balls is reprimanded (8).
14. Smear on oil wrecked nation (6).
16. Country in drug and alcohol issue (6).
18. NuLabour activists? (3,5).
21. America need forty; one less could result in a defeated force (11,4).
23. He protected club teams (9).
25. Stupid book on despot (5).
26. Party loses nothing down under (5).
27. Appears again to join in stuffing former Home Secretary (9).

Down
1. Yokel! Toby’s with a gangster (5).
2. State room first in ceremonial office (11).
3. This puzzle was liberated (3,4).
4. Film director covered The Man in the White Suit and was opposed to the establishment (8).
5. Garment worn to court by Hutton (6).
6. Former Royal Marine and show off (7).
7. In addition to nothing (3).
8. Bush territories make for extremist conditions (3,6).
12. Relating once more to a drawback for Campbell (11).
13. Confused lurch off to the left by Cold War leader (9).
15. Highly spoken of ruler and religious leader. (8).
17. Theatre assistant (7).
19. 21 sheltered here (3,4).
20. First editorial (6).
22. Reportedly poetic justice seeker (5).
24. Second rate movie awarded Golden Globe (3).

Thanks StJohn for doing such a great job for our amusement. If you want to talk to him directly StJohn has indicated that he will be at this year’s PBC party. This will once again be held at that excellent venue, The National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE, on Friday 25th January 2008, from 6pm until about 9.30pm, or when thrown out if sooner.

There will be a cash bar and a £5 entry charge, payable on the door, as a contribution towards sandwiches and nibbles. Ladbrokes have generously donated £150 towards the event, thanks to the influence of regular poster Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of The Magic Sign.

Happy Boxing Day to everybody. Normal service from Thursday.

Mike Smithson

..best wishes for the New Year

There was going to be a cross-word this Christmas Day which has been produced by StJohn - one of our most regular contributors. Alas I have found it impossible to format it for the site and this will have to wait.

This is our fourth Christmas since the site was started and can I thank all who have made it possible. These include my son Robert and his wife Lucille for the technical infrastructure and the design, Paul Maggs for acting as the regular stand-in editor and for running our competitions, Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) for developing and managing many associated activities and his contributions, Sean Fear for his weekly slots and to the hundreds people who contribute daily to our discussions. Also thank you to the thousands of other other visitors.

I am hoping that RodCrosby will contribute to the thread later in the day with some of his political brain-teasers. Rod - if you are able to do this can you post a time below so we know when you will start.

Mike Smithson