Boost for Obama and Huckabee with 2 days to go
January 1st, 2008
Will the state’s main paper be the top pollster again?
In the 2004 race for the Democratic nomination the final poll for the state’s main newspaper, the Des Moines Register, came closest to predicting what was a sensational result - the defeat of the early front runner and heavy odds-on favourite, Howard Dean. After his defeat there the former governor of Vermont never really recovered and the winner of the state caucuses, John Kerry, went on to take the nomination.
The graphic above, reproduced from the paper, shows the closing numbers and indicates a big boost for both Barack Obama in the Democrat race and Mike Huckabee for the GOP. Both of them had seen substantial leads decline over recent days and this news will give real heart to their campaigns.
The main challenge for all the camps is the sheer complexity of the caucus system. Your supporters have to get to their local caucus meeting place from 6.30 pm. The doors are closed at 7pm and late-comers are not allowed to take part. In a conventional election the campaigns can tick off their supporters as they go into vote so the last few hours can be devoted to rounding up the stragglers. In Iowa on Thursday night that option is not available and much will depend on the massive advance planning that has gone in.
Obama and Huckabee might be leading in this latest poll but will their supporters be motivated enough to be there at the stated time?
There are lots of betting options on various primaries and the overall winner. At the time of writing this (0705 GMT) Obama was the 0.6/1 favourite for Iowa on Betfair with Huckabee the 0.62/1 favourite for the GOP caucus.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Look at the don’t knows though.
I’m unconvinced by recent arguments that Edwards will be squeezed because caucus-goers will want to choose the next President, and am surprised LibDems in particular did not demur.
Elsewhere in the US, Fox has excluded Ron Paul from the next televised debate but the NH Republican Party has issued a press release protesting this so we shall have to wait and see.
http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2007/12/has-fox-news–2.html
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports Ron Paul has raised $19 million in the final quarter of 2007.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119906159792258573.html
The WSJ reports that Clinton and Obama have raised more money than all the Republicans combined. It is suggested that Republicans are waiting for a clear leader to emerge.
8.10am and so far only two posts - it must be the morning after the night before!
Sensational polls. Go Bama, go!!
3. I’ve been up since 6.20am, having executed The Alan Clark Procedure.
Happy new year all. Hope you have a good un. Now back to bed…
The Alan Clark Procedure. What is that? Sleeping with the wife and daughters of a friend?
7. Sadly not. It involves going to bed stupidly early as a means of refusing to engage in the revelry.
8 There must be some incentive surely?
9. The prospect of not being hungover.
10 Well there is always that!
It’s worth remembering that the last few polls have contrasted a little with this one from the DMR, the last few have seen a little movemnet for Edwards, Obama standing still and a mild recovery for Clinton - in short a three way tie.
Not that I’m not encouraged by this poll of course :)…also the poll suggests that second preferences would simply reinforce the order of finish.
O/T -The DMR poll in ‘04 was as follows (compared with actual result)…
Kerry - 26 (38)
Edwards - 23 (32)
Dean - 20 (18)
Gephardt - 18 (11)
2. By the way, this (unlike my own) is a good post. If you don’t mind I might steal some of it for my blog.
Happy new year everyone, here, ‘out in the sticks’ the celebrations went on till 2200 hrs, then I had a drink with a couple of horses, then off to bed.
Des Moines Poll - PtP, re Huck’s chances of the GOP nomination, please can we swap our respective “dead meat” and “worth only a saver” comments from yesterday’s thread?
I’ve had a further punt on him at 8.6-1. These odds just have to shorten somewhat when, rather than if, he wins Iowa, don’t they?
13 “I had a drink with a couple of horses, then off to bed.”
Sounds like Alan Clarke to me.
OK, here’s how to explain the recent Iowa polls: Obama had a slight lead until just before Christmas, when Obama supporters starting disproportionately going away to visit their relatives. That caused Hillary to lead in the polls for a few days, but by Boxing Day most of the Clinton supporters got so sick of being bothered every 5 minutes with a robocall or an opinion poll that they’d taken their phones off the hook. So when the Des Moines Register started calling, they got disproportionately more Obama supporters, who’d just got home and hadn’t yet had time to get themselves on the Do Not Call register. By the end of tomorrow all the polling companies’ samples will come from a single very lonely person and an old lady with Alzheimer’s. Expect a late electoral surge for pancakes.
That said, this poll has to be great news for Obama in helping marginalize Edwards and present himself as the only real alternative to Clinton. (Winning Here, Two-Horse Race, etc etc etc.)
Go Bar Charts, go!!
Just one more comment about that poll - it’s interesting to read the John Edwards campaign’s spin on it here:
http://tinyurl.com/ys8p2t
Among other things they say that:
“The poll says that 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers. Usually, the number of first-time caucus goers is no more than 20%.”
This is quite consistent with a few people have been saying already about Iowa and turnout: Edwards wins if it’s small, Clinton wins if it’s medium and Obama wins if it’s big.
Edmund in Tokyo - would you mind dropping me a quick e-mail to julian.harris.81@googlemail.com ? Many thanks if possible.
Just as in the UK, differential turnout has proved a major problem for predicting polls, wont this be even more so in a US Caucus or Primary. What sort of turnout figures are expected?
15. FYI - Huckabee’s Meltdown?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/31/politics/animal/main3661603.shtml
18 - Very strange and defensive response from the Edwards campaign.
I see a few of you were up before me to take advantage of the results of some local newspaper’s dubious opinion polling. “Who’s going to be punting on these first thing on Jan 1st?” was my thinking as I foolish stayed in bed.
Anyway, here at Magic Sign HQ, we’ve now gone 8/11 Huck, 5/4 Mitt. No changes to the Dem prices. Yet.
Shadsy,
I’d like your thoughts (and anyone else!) and my post below form the Horse Racing AntePost Betfair Forum… i.e. thoughts from the ‘other side’. This has signficant implications for Political Betting.
Chris Trinder
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
I have backed with W.Hill that the winner of the Arc is British/Irish at 6/1. They are now trying to void the bet or readjust the price I have taken to even money.
Since the new Gambling Act, bets on gambling are now covered by Contract Law.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_law
For example, in Hartog v Colin & Shields the defendants entered into a contract to sell goods to the claimants ([1939] 3 All ER 566 ). By mistake the defendants offered them at the wrong price. It was held that, in the circumstances, the claimants could not reasonably have thought that the defendants’ offer matched their true intention and the claimants must have realised the defendants’ error which, as the error concerned a term of the contract, rendered that contract void.
Therefore, the questions is could I have reasonably have thought that 6/1 matched the ‘true intention’ of Hills? It is certainly arguable. The bet was listed under ‘2008 Specials’, so an atrractive price was not a suprise. As the market was not listed on other bookies (enabling a comparitive price), there was no reason for me to suspect this price was not Hills ‘true intention’.
The fact that the error was passed to the Racing Post indicates that it probably doesn’t look like an obvious mistake. If it was an obvious mistake (indicating the bet wasn’t Hills true intention), Hills and/or the Racing Post would surely have picked it up. Also, it would have been highlighted it as a bet by the Racing Post writers as a value bet. All of this mean that a someone could reasonably have thought that this was Hills true ‘intention’.
I think Hills are on very shaky ground here. I am considering IBAS (unlikley given prious stances) and/or the courts on this one.
What are others thoughts? Are there any test cases yet?
Happy New Year to all at pbCOM. Wishing everyone the best of fortunes, luck, great health, fantastic sex, successful gambling, and writing lots of truly splendid, witty, informative, illuminating posts on pbCOM.
I think I must still be a bit drunk mind because I am still in exceptional spirits.
This is a devastating poll for Edwards who I wanted to win in Iowa just for sheer effort, and his personal situation. Shows that politics as ever does not do sentiment.
Must go back to bed.
A Happy New Year to all on here .
Cannot understand why everyone on here is so obsessed with these opinion polls which have lower samples and higher M of E than UK polls . It is actually unclear whether this poll is the latest poll . Here are the last 3 polls for the Democrats Iowa caucus .
DMR Sample 800 survey 27-30/12 Obama 32 Clinton 25 Edwards 24
IA. Sample 788 survey 28-29/12 Obama 22 Clinton 30 Edwards 29
ARG Sample 600 survey 26-28/12 Obama 24 Clinton 31 Edwards 24
In the famous words spoken so often on here whwn there is a poll people don’t like , this latest poll looks a rogue to me .
[26] Mark, I haven’t been polling in Iowa, roguishly or otherwise…
27 LOL IA = Insider Advantage in this case .
24. Chris, I think that’s a palpable error. That doesn’t mean you won’t get paid though. I’ve posted a couple of thoughts on your excellent blog.
When I first saw this story I thought, ‘A citizen’s charter by another name’.
Now I wonder if it is a sign of foreboding of defeat, and it is in fact an attempt to bind the hands of succeeding governments.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7166429.stm
Ironic, however, that Brown will call this a constitution but is not prepared to use that word in the context of the EU’s latest deal.
in response to 24….i too saw the 6/1 price and immediately thought that it was a mistake. i do not deal with w.hill,having been on the wrong end of an IBAS ruling in 2006. i suggest that you take this on the chin.
30 Witan- I wish Brown would stop using the word shared, purpose, vision whatever. Find it irritating and patronising.
32-I think my hangover must be setting in as my spirits are downflating, and I am getting irritated by things I read
re 26 In many cases it is not what the numbers are that matter but how they are reported. A poll that is reported big will have a much greater impact than one that barely gets a mention.
This poll is the top political story on ABC news and the main lead in the DMR - the leading newspaper in Iowa. The impetus will be seen to be with Obama.
26. One of the reasons why I didn’t bet on the Labour deputy leadership election was that the system was so complex that it was extremely hard to work out what might be likely to happen - there were just so many possibilities. (I also found it difficult to get ‘inside the head’ of the average Labour member, to work out what they wanted).
Caucuses might not be so procedurally complex, but they still offer up a good many variables - the figures posted by Ben at [12] bear this out: there’s nothing to say that the poll wasn’t far off the mark as people went in to the meetings but were swayed by argument and group dynamics once inside. Or they could, as you suggest, just have been out of line given the average size of the polls that seem to be taken. In the case of these figures, it’s also worth remembering the comments in the piece linked at [18]. Yes, it’s from a biased source, but the points are relatively valid: the timing does undermine the findings somewhat.
Iowa’s record in giving first place to the eventual winner is hit-and-miss. I have a bit of a pet theory that they don’t particularly like favourites, which should be good news for Obama, though it might play for Edwards too.
On the Republican side, I’m still with McCain and Romney overall. Huckabee might win this one (or not), but where then?
Tyson It is a little grandiloquent, isn’t it? I bet he doesn’t let people vote on it and make it really democratic. That would be far too gauche. Might set an example and precedent too.
Best cure for hangover is raw egg in a glass topped up with milk and a good dose of Tabasco. Do not beat egg. Just swallow wholesale. Guaranteed to cure the hangover one way or the other. It used to work for me until I stopped drinking….. for a year before collapsing at Christmas.
New Year’s resolution is to stop drinking entirely again, for at least another year.
Witan @ 30 - as I’m a lefy sort of chap - I think this is exactly the sort of thing that Labour should be doing.
Forget about the next election, where the overall majority is almost certain to be lost, and concentrate on locking in the Labour settlement. The history books will be kinder than if he continues on the path of stealing tory policies in the hope of winning in 2010.
No condition is permanent, but if you think something is good, and could be threatened by your opponents (as it was relentlessly for 18 years) the you are beholden to try and make it as politically fire proof as possible.
[24] 6/1 against a British/Irish winner looks like a ‘palpable error’.
As you can’t claim to be a ’simple’ or ‘little’ man, I think it unlikely that you’ll get anything out of Hills.
You’ve done well to get on some of their other specials (especially the one about the premiership being won on goal difference)—the prices had all gone by the middle of the morning.
As far as your problems with ‘getting on’, us punters aren’t as helpful to each other as we should be. That’s something I’d like to talk about at the pb.com party on 25 Jan.
Chris Trinder @ 24 re Hills Arc price.
Bookmakers hide behind the palpable error rule. When the Gambling Commission and/or IBAS grows a pair and stops this, the bookmakers will do what insurance companies, banks and the like do which is to implement proper content management procedures. Breath-holding is not advised.
I wonder if the new NHS constitution will ban smokers and those who are overweight from using the service?
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,,2233773,00.html
The more I think of it the odder it seems. Unless it is just a list of ‘values’ and apple pie statements the ‘constitution’ will be becoming outdated before the ink is dry, as changes in medical science and media and data storage could make it largely irrelevant in fairly short order:remote consultation, self testing, new non-invasive procedures, new ‘treatments’ that are not currently acceptable as sex changes used to be.
Surely all its likely to do is entrench aging practice (and not always good practice, either) and create a sclerotic system.
John Wheatley Unless there is a referendum on the ‘constitution’ then it will be in an act of parliament which can be changed by other acts, as the citizen charters were.
If there is a referendum then the first question is why not more for other matters: education enshrining selection, streaming and, perhaps, grammar schools, smoking bans as part of a social constitution, the death penalty as part of a legal framework matching that for the NHS, overall tax takes as a percentage of GDP and the need for balanced budget in a taxpayers’ constitution.
And there is always Europe as well.
But popular votes on the general framework is something I would welcome.
But jumping into that pit would be daft, but then the Labour government has gone that way before, jumping on a whizzo idea to stuff the other parties while ignoring the concomitant longer term effects: devolution being just one. The HRA another.
We shouldn’t forget that the NHS “constitution” is also on an EHS (English Health Service) construct only.
It irks me greatly me when the media forget we no longer have a National Health Service - one of Labour’s lasting legacies which becomes more and more apparent as each year goes by.
As for what it will be - Patients’ Charter MKII* or some odious piece of Stalinist bureaucracy that stifles innovation & enterprise - we wait with (not so) bated breath.
*In which case, Brown’s term takes on another parallel of Major’s.
The Beeboids are up to their usual tricks on the NHS constitution story. It concludes with a blatent piece of Labour propaganda.
The Beeb claims the “NHS was created by Nye Bevan”. They ignore the Beveridge report (he was a Liberal) which was produced during the war and endorsed by Parliament in 1944.
Bevan was Minister of Health and guided the Act, as for creating it?? BBC/Labour spin as usual.
Witan - can’t see him offering referendums/a on this type of thing (although if set in terms of a broad political consensus, it really could give him a legacy worth remembering).
If he did, he’d be unable to avoid referendums/a on:
a) The EU constitution - we all know why he won’t do that;
b) electoral/constitutional reform (if his cosying up to Calamity Clegg is serious) - he won’t want to consult us on his plans to gerrymander the voting system, obviously.
40 There was a chap on Comment is Free advocating progressively tighter leglislation that would, over time, make it unlawful to smoke tobacco - organised criminals must be praying that this becomes a reality.
37- John- spot on- Brown and Labour should approach the next 3 years as if it is going to be their last for many years and try and secure a lasting left wing settlement for the country. Forget politics.
Witan- thanks for the tip. The prospect of a year without alcohol would terrify me, so you are a very brave man indeed.
41. Actually, a referendum gives no greater legal authority to a piece of legislation than any other act ao parliament passed without one. It can give a greater degree of political and moral authority, but even then, it depends on what the proposal is. The EEC referendum didn’t settle that issue, nor did the Scottish devolution one in the 70s.
In any case, the idea that a ‘constitution’ for the NHS can by itself preserve anything is palpable nonsense. To think it can do so for half a century or more is even more laughable. Only two things make institutions or policies fire-resistant: those that work and those that command public support and affection. People by and large like the NHS because they have bought into the concept of it. The fact that it’s quite literally a ‘feel-good’ institution (or is at least meant to be) - you go in ill and come out better - does it no harm either. A piece of paper makes little difference one way or the other unless people believe it does. As with Charter Marks, Star ratings and other government quality initiatives, I don’t think this will.
I suspect a future Tory government could repeal the ‘constitution’ without much fuss, just as one could repeal the Human Rights Act without much fuss - providing both are done with sufficient care to reassure those who might worry about the scare stories that Labour and others would no doubt put about if either course was proposed. If a future Labour government wanted to repeal either - and given their record over the last 10 years, that’s quite possible - they’d have even less trouble.
45 It’d have its fun side though. You could have speakeasies serving packs of Camel cigarettes. I’m sure the ghost of Capone would be smiling
In 1998 for the 50th anniversary we had coins, BBC programmes celebrating, lots of speeches from Labour politicians. That was when the Labour Government were popular.
Already in last couple of days we’ve had a Labour MP demanding that hospitals should be named after Bevan (one in Wales is being), now we get Gordon coming up with an NHS story. Expect that in run up to July there’ll be lots about Labour & the NHS. It’s the default Labour political vision; NHS=Labour, Labour=NHS. 60th Anniversary is a good peg on which to hang the message that it’s Labour, and subliminally or not, only Labour that created and can be trusted with the NHS. Conservatives will need to tread carefully in attempts in undermining that last message.
49. I’d have thought something along the lines of “Labour cares about the NHS; Tories care about people’s health” might be worth trying if a Conservative government ever wants to look at serious reform in healthcare.
48 It occurs to me that if smokers/drinkers etc. were to be denied treatment because of their lifestyle, it would be reasonable for the government to refund them the very considerable amounts of money they pay in excise duty.
Last night was also the 60th anniversary of rail nationalisation.
I have just dusted down a copy of Hansard with the 1943 King’s Speech. I quote:
“My Ministers will present to you their views and proposals regarding an enlarged and unified system of social insurance, a comprehensive health service and a new scheme for workmen’s compensations; they will decide, in th elight of your discussions, what legislation on these matters can be brought forward at this stage”
This was following publication of the Beveridge report. The debate, moved by Commander Brabner (Hythe) and seconded by George Griffiths (Hemsworth) is fascinating. Even nin the depths of the ward, Parliament found time for other matters.
Extraordinarily British!!
Re. 45, indeed, just as criminals are already delighted by the prohibition of hard drugs.
50 not sure the public want to hear about more reform in healthcare; reform has been an annual cry from both Labour and Conservative governments for decades. It’s reform that’s driving closure of district hospitals, creating super-practices out of GP surgeries. People IMHO would be more responsive to promises of less change in structure, improving what’s there.
See in Guardian another sign of the upcoming Labour NHS campaign; Fabian Society suggesting British Day on July 5th as public holiday celebrating the NHS as the institution that binds the UK.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,,2233753,00.html
45 It’d have its fun side though. You could have speakeasies serving packs of Camel cigarettes. I’m sure the ghost of Capone would be smiling
Smoke-easies?
NO, NO, NO Gordon:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7166429.stm
Is the PM too clever by half? Me thinks that the cunning mandateless manipulator just cannot stop digging.
He obviously thinks he can control everything when he has nothing. Seems to me he is detached from his cabinet. Did Straw not say the Tories are connecting with the electrate and that the tory philosephy was being lapped up by the electrate. What does Brown do - he goes back to the future and publishes more pointless state initiatives. Blair must be laughing his siocks off!!!
:lol: 
The mandateless manipulator is even more sh*t than i gave him credit for. I bet not even Coldstone / Roger or Palmer they were wrong to deride me for overestimating Browns pointless agenda. Brown would not know leadership or what the public want if it bit him on the arse.
NHS problems are caused by mass uncontrolled immigration that means per capitor spending on patients does not register the increase it should given the £Billions thrown at it. It does not take a genuis to work out that if you spend £billions increasing pay and then increase the number of patients through immigration and no additional funding for the new patients that you will have a problem. Incomtent Labour government!!!!
54 It’s curious how many people really believe that banning something which large numbers of people really wish to do, and which they feel that they are morally entitled to do, will cause that thing do disappear.
A happy new year to you all.
O/T http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1935318.0.SNP_membership_increases_by_50.php
THE Labour Party has failed to publicly register a £30,000 donation from Gordon Brown, it emerged last night.
The cash is understood to have been given by the Prime Minister’s leadership campaign but has yet to be included in the Electoral Commission’s register of gifts.
All Labour’s deputy leadership candidates gave similar gifts but most were registered in time for the Commission’s most recent accounts.
Tory spokesman Chris Grayling said it was further evidence of Labour’s “shambolic” approach to party finances.
Metropolitan Police detectives are to interview key witnesses over allegations the law was broken when Labour failed to properly register more than £600,000 from businessman David Abrahams.
Mr Brown has vowed to give police all the help they require and has said several times he didnot know third parties were funneling the property developer’s money to Labour.
The party has also suffered a string of embarrassing revelations about donations given to its deputy leadership campaign candidates.
Under party rules, all candidates for both the deputy and the leadership had to give 15 per cent of their cash donations to Labour HQ.
Hazel Blears, Alan Johnson, Hilary Benn, Harriet Harman and Peter Hain have all declared the sums to the Electoral Commission in its most recent accounts.
The contests for leader and deputy leader were decided in June and almost all those involved handed over their required 15 per cent soon after.
Mr Brown raised £196,700 for his campaign, requiring him to give the party £29,505.
Party sources said they expected the donation would be registered by the time the Electoral Commission published its next accounts in February.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Brown39s-30000-gift-39unregistered39.3631587.jp
52 Yes, it would be nice to celebrate with proposals for rail renationalisation or something similar. However, the reality is with British railways (and Railways) that we need a way of getting more investment in, faster. The imperatives of reducing use of transport media which emit more carbon dioxide - air and road - and to give the passengers a less crowded quality of journey, are there. We need a way of persuading the majority of the people that this investment is essential / very desirable indeed.
it would be nice to celebrate a reduction in Labour sleaze but it does not look like it is coming soon.
Brown seems to be just a wishful thinker.
58. I’m personally thrilled that Labour greets us in the New Year with such uplifting messages - the promise of a ban on obese puffers sponging off the NHS, and the NHS itself to be consecrated for all eternity as a system guaranteeing no one will be spared MRSA and other crucial treatments on the basis of their wealth.
Looks like Labour will ban and tax everything this year. I suppose Brown can put restrictions on everything and quota things.
63. What will be the quota for people who must die due to MRSA? If not enough people die will they be exterminated?
I do not wish to cause chaos BUT has Ave it…finally departed?
Good polls for Huckabee …….. yet, the markets are increasingly saying he’s got little chance.
Still, he might have enough support to hold on and win Iowa, which would (hopefully) damage Romney sufficiently that McCain wins in NH. I wonder, I wonder - could McCain have told some of his supporters to vote for Huckabee?
Poll:
“A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out this morning has Clinton and Obama virtually tied for the lead in Iowa: Clinton is at 33 percent, Obama is at 31 percent, and Edwards trails with 22 percent.
On the Republican side, CNN’s new Iowa poll finds the race a virtual tie at the top, with Mitt Romney at 31 percent, and Mike Huckabee at 28 percent. Fred Thompson is at 13 percent, followed by John McCain at 10 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul each are tied at 8 percent.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/01/ticker-morning-edition-tuesday-january-1-2008/
65 - However much anyone might agree or disagree with you nobody is going to listen to somebody who either a) changes their username regularly or b) who wishes to avoid debate by not posting as their usual self.
I didn’t bother reading the posts from your various usernames so you’ve just wasted your time, many regulars will just do the same.
It also means I have no compunction in attacking and ridiculing someone who I might otherwise leave alone if I knew who they were.
Post in a different way and you may rise above the insignificant and worthless. Seing as you have the guts of an amoeba that may be beyond your capabilities though.
66 - I’m sure Ave It 08 will be along presently.
61 We do have a nationalised rail service - policy, safety, timetables, fare structure & pricing, infrastructure investment are all the responsibility of the Rail regulator. The private train companies are really just contractors to the state industry.
Would a sensible private company in making decisions on investment have spent £10 billion on a high speed link that reduces travel time by 20 minutes on the train - savings lost to many by increased travel time to Kings Cross as compared to Waterloo? That £10 billion could have gone a long way increasing network capacity on existing track across the country. State direction though tends to go for prestige rather than practicality.
Just before I leave for footie, may I apologise for the slight misleading over Norwood on Christmas day.
My sources were incorrect and I should have double checked via maps. However it is fair to say that until the arrival of the the entire Angel ward in 1983, Norwood was little changed. Remarkable for an urban constituency in a divided Borough.
I cannot source all of Greenwich and I do not know if the Borough lost or gained any “attached” territory in 1918. As we know Woolwich extended across the Thames until 1974 for Parliamentary purposes. Greenwich did not do that.
With those provisos Greenwich appears unchanged until 1974 when it lost some voters to Woolwich. This appears to be more than the change in Hampstead, but a remarkable record for a Borough constituency, surrounded by urban constituencies.
I have gone over all my London records and would say that Greenwich,Hampstead and Norwood are the record holders in the 1885-1983 index of change, with Deptford as runner up.
BTW, whilst looking at records one source stated that Penge was attached to Dulwich for Parliamentary purposes until 1950. It was not.
68-This link is better:
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/31/iowa.poll/index.html
It is possible that Ron Paul could run in an independent ticket.
I would like a national holiday celebrating the privatising of BT as that was the seminal act that freed the economy from the stifling post war statist consensus.
Why, Witan? BT now is an appalling shambles.
76 No it isn’t.
Post Office Telecommunications was a shambles - party lines, long waiting times for phones, high call prices.
71. For most of the country (including for me) i.e. those who when travelling by train would arrive in London at Kings Cross, Euston or St. Pancras itself, the departure at St. Pancras has cut off an hour and a half from the travelling time to the continent. Cross-rail is a much bigger waste of money.
New thread “…and the Political Forecaster of 2007 is ?????”
“The Republican presidential race may look like a cluttered and chaotic mess, but it’s actually become fairly simple: Mitt Romney will win the nomination unless Mike Huckabee and John McCain can stop him”
http://www.observer.com/2007/one-final-chance-stop-romney
In spirit with the times, but talking about the shambles that is BT….
Oh yes it is, Ted….
The doorstep personnel are courteous and efficient. But their management is a total shambles. They don’t come when they promise, they insist of doing work that does not need doing, they are super-expensive - they don’t even answer phone calls.
It was muCh better in the Good Old Days, Ted.
So was British Gas. And British Railways. And British Airways. And as for BAA…. Don’t provoke me, Ted…..
Happy New Year anyway.
55. Actually, I agree with you in terms of the structure of provision - there’s been far too much change and not enough capacity for professionals to deliver. I was just suggesting a way in which the Conservatives might be able to make the case if that was a policy decided upon.
Rather than reforming the structure, reforming the way in which income is derived might be more beneficial. A proper system of social insurance, paid by NI and linked to both ability to pay and lifestyle (though not linked to genetic inheritance or other similar factors), might encourage some people to live more healthily, and for those it doesn’t, the increase in their NI contributions could be used to cut duty on alcohol and tobacco which would cut smuggling, improve the trade balance and hit one aspect of organised crime.
81 BT has its faults, but I think there’s no real comparison with the old days. Look at the Post Office now, to see what BT would be like if it were still State owned.
The Post Office is being massacred by this Labour Government, as it was by the previous Tory Government. All in the name of “efficiency”, of course.
As was British Rail, in the days of Beeching, under the instructions of the Tory government of the day. And now we would like to have the branch lines back again, to cut down environmental damage.
Tories - like Labour - are SO short sighted, aren’t they, Sean? They can’t be trusted either.
84 - Beeching went to my school. Won’t have a word said against the man (!). Good grammar school boy. Funny he did not close the Medway Valley line that links lots of villages between Strood and Paddock Wood. Must be because it passed through his home town. (It also passes through the wonderfully named town of Snodland.)
BT is a dreadful company in terms of internet provision - they’ve always held us back nationally with their lack of ambition. They were years behind with unmetered dialup, years behind with adsl, years behind with 8mbit. Right now France and Italy are rolling out fibre, Germany 50mbit vdsl2, while large chunks of urban Sweden has had 100mbit for 5+ years - meanwhile BT is merely trialling adsl2+, which third party companies like Bulldog/Sky/Bethere have been using for 2 years or more (and is absurdly easy to implement, for many exchanges it’s just a simply software upgrade).
Having said all that, the old PO telco was a complete shambles, with prices that were just sheer comedy. BT merely has no ambition and has its head stuck in the sand.
37. & 46. It’s just transparent political posturing. No government can ‘lock in’ anything for subsequent administrations. What parliament does parliament can undo. Looking forward to an announcement on Cone Hotline II or possible a National Spare Rooms Database.