YouGov has Ken just 1% ahead
January 2nd, 2008
The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7%
A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008.
If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that Gordon strongly opposed Ken’s return to the Labour party ahead of the 2004 race. He won first in 2000 as an independent beating the official Labour candidate, Frank Dobson, into a poor third place.
The election involves millions of Londoners in the largest single ballot anywhere within the UK political system.
- In many ways the process favours the Tories because turnout levels in the outer boroughs where they have most support are likely to be much higher than in the inner traditional Labour areas
All electors have two choices and a key element will be where the second preferences go. The election is held on the same day as that for the London Assembly where the Greens have done well in the past.
Johnson clearly has very high name recognition - the big question mark is whether his opponents can raise doubts about his seriousness as Brian Paddick sought to do earlier in the week.
The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet.
Tomorrow on PBC I am flying to Dublin for a meeting tomorrow and Paul Maggs will once again be acting as stand-in editor.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Where will the second prefs of Paddick go? 7% (+4% for others) is slim pickings, but Boris has to get more second prefs than Norris last time round, surely?
If it’s really this close, then Ken is in trouble.
What’s the margin of error?
So all that mud that Ken and his cyphers have flung has not stuck yet. According to conhome Osborne is getting some back bone into Boris’s less than professional campaign.
Its not a good poll for Ken is it.
Blue Square have the best price on offer - 15/8 Boris. Pile in. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.
Mike - just to let you know this article doesn’t appear if you open up http://www.politicalbetting.com - you have to navigate through the previous article.
I am amazed that it is this close. With the poll what matters is whether it takes into account the different voting patterns of the parties.
As Mike has pointed out the outer areas vote more strongly than the inner.
1% behind could easily translate to 4% ahead just on the different likelihood of voting.
2. MOE of 3%. Sample 995. 63% chance Ken is in the lead….
On CH4 Clinton’s campaign chair sounds downbeat about her Iowa chances….
48. From previous thread. Except that STV has so many candidates in each constituency that voters can’t keep track of every candidate and vote by party. AV is far better if you want a candidate based system. Additionally, the smaller number of electors each candidate has to cater to, the more face-to-face politicians have to be - just look at Iowa. Thus single members constituencies of ~50,000 voters are better in preventing a democratic elite than multi-member constituencies of a quarter million.
What is amazing, if this poll is to be believed, is that Boris has drawn very very close without actually doing anything. His campaign has made Fred Thompson look active and engaged - it has been completely invisible for a month or more. This may actually be quite sensible (eg he couldn’t hit too hard on the Lee Jasper scandal without being accused of being racist again) as perhaps his team think that the public will tire of him if they see him for six months straight, but all the same, I wouldn’t expect that strategy to be so handsomely rewarded with such a positive poll.
8 - just managing expectations, RodCrosby - that she needs to do so says a lot, but I think that is all it is.
PS. I have to ask if John McCain’s campaign is really getting value for money by paying for adverts on a UK betting site?
i don’t know how representative i am but i shall be voting tory for the first time in my life for boris. I feel a bit dirty having grown up with a built in loathing for them but frankly we need a change and he’s the only choice. In my group of friends i haven’t come across one who thinks ken will do it again and despite being labour voters mainly they don’t seem that upset about it.
Blue Sq, accomodating as ever.
Having said that cant quite see him winning but more polls like this and that 15/8 becomes interesting so couldnt miss it.
4. Great spot PtP. I’ve gone in.
8. Morus. I looked at your link on the previous thread where Novak predicts Obama and Romney to win their respective Iowa Caucuses. What do people think about this? Is he a good judge?
Happy New Year everyone, I trust good festive seasons have been had by all!
That the London mayoral race may be this close is good news and bad news - good in that it confirms the strength and depth of the Tory revival; bad in that Boris might actually win this! And that could stop the Tory momentum in its tracks. The thought of Boris, loveable scoundrel that he is, being the most powerful Tory in Britain in the run up to a General Election sends a shiver down the spine.
And re the Tory revival, I caught a snippet on my regional news headlines which said (unless my ears deceived me) that Cameron had been in the northwest “amid further signs of a Tory revival in the region”. Now that caught my attention - anyone know more on this?
O/T Yokel - Seems Kenny Dalglish is now favourite to get the RoI manager’s job - now 2/1, and apparently the Dublin bookies have taken a lot of money on him. Had you heard anything ?
15 You’re welcome, StJohn. Of course, since the Blue Square boys have gone home for the night, I reckon the price will be there until morning.
Sidney isn’t the only friend of The Political Punter.
18. My first bet on this market. Now I have to clerk yet another book!
Bearing in mind the Livingstone at this stage of the last two contests, this is fascinating. In many ways it mirrors a US Senate/Governor race. Large electorate, media campaign, need for personality etc.
Looking at The Almanic of American Politics, US incumbents need a big lead this early.
An additional point is that Boris Johnson is known, he does not have do name recognitiion.
In 2004 Hughes won just eight of London’s Borough wards and seven of those were in his constituency. I am not sur ethat Paddick has that start anywhere.
However it is all to play for. Could be fun
17. Holy good god no, Ive got cash on two other alternatives, Venables who two weeks ago was a shoo-in and Brady (with Giles as the Bobby Robson consultant figure).
I ruled Dagleish out because broke every rule the FAI set out in their criteria.
I’d be shocked but money rolling on to anything like that is worrying. I shall keep a steady nerve though & remember the whole business over Mourinho when in fact Capello was always the man the suits wanted and he said he wanted it just the day before McClaren was fired.
Bl sq down to 6/4 - still not bad, tories most seats at next election is 8/11
15 I don’t know about Good, but he is a very well-known judge, although Socrates is right to say that he is a Republican commentator who uses his platform to cause trouble for the Democrats. For that reason, this is interesting, becuase saying Hillary will come 3rd plays right into her hands - it diminishes expectation, which is just what her campaign is trying to do.
If I were a Republican, trying to hurt Hillary, I would keep saying she is leading in the polls, so if she doesn’t win, the ‘inevitable’ Clinton is damaged, and Obama’s reputation is re-enforced as ‘the new guy’. Helping Clinton to manage expectations, and thus heaping them on Obama, makes me think that Novak is more concerned about an Obama candidacy, and this is an interesting view for a senior Republican media voice.
13 - As a non-partisan, I was fairly open-minded on this. I quite like Boris Johnson, and actively dislike Ken Livingstone, but when London has a £4bn annual budget, I cannot in good conscience entrust it for 4 years in the run-up to the Olympic Games, to somebody who’s biggest budget was a magazine with up to 70,000 readers (same as Farming Weekly or the Motorsport News and Autosport Magazine). You cannot runa city if you have never managed a major budget before. Preference goes out of the window - I am compelled to vote for Ken.
I still think that something will go wrong and Bozza will not be the Tory candidate.
21 Yokel I thought similar. However Dalglish is in to 6/4 now. Something’s going on….
22 Hmmm…Blue Square not so dusty. Woudn’t catch Sidney working after 6pm.
Stan James now best at 7/4 but in my experience if you want more than a fiver, you’d be better off trying to contact Sid James.
17. Bit of clarification..he and Kinnear have reportedly said they are interested a while back.
It seems though that many a judge is unconvinced. Kenny will have been seen in Dublin I’m sure but nothing I can see or hear that suggests he’s walking in yet.
25. With Paddy Powers but I noticed VCbet still has Venables at slight favourite though Kenny is at his heels.
I wouldnt expect anything to happen with Terry at this stage anyway if he is in the running. What I’d heard is that Terry is on a holiday and the FAI intend to talk to him on his return.
26 Ladbrokes also offering 7/4 Boris, but since they are sponsoring the PB Party, it would not be right for PBers to take advantage.
29. Should we ignore that post then?
I’m sure that, albeit inadvertantly, we’ve been sponsoring Ladbrokes staff parties for many years, PtP. I very much doubt anybody in Head Office worried about taking advantage!
23
With the Olympic budget tripling in the last 2 years,hardly an endorsement for Livingstone.
32 - Hofstadter’s Law states that things will always cost more, and take longer, than you budget for, even when you factor in Hofstadter’s law.
No Olympics stays on budget, and that would largely be the responsibility of lots of agencies (DoCMS, ODA etc) not just the Mayor.
Telling me that a budget measured in billions has tripled doesn’t make me any more likely to give it to the guy who left management consultancy (the easiest of corporate jobs) becuase he couldn’t stand figures, finances and graphs.
I want to vote for him, I really do - I just cannot believe he is able to do the job.
I’ve had some of the 7/4 at Ladbrokes…. I’ve always thought this was a ‘toss of the coin’ job, so more that happy to have this confirmed by a poll.
Chris Trinder
kickingbets.blogspot.com
29. How thoughtful Peter. We generally like to take a couple of bets before we change the price. Besides, our worst results are 1. Sian Berry 2. Brian Paddick. So please feel free….
33
You say that the tripling of the cost of the Olympics is not the sole responsibility of the Mayor,so that would surely equally apply to the £4 billion annual budget you mention in your post 23?
33. Yeah, much as the right might hate his grandstanding (and the left his incessant kissing up to the City), Ken has done a reasonably competent job running London. Boris is good for a laugh but I wouldn’t want him actually in charge of anything.
35 - shadsy - see you’ve cut bloomberg to 16/1 thought he had no chance?
(yes Chris, it is me)
35 Sian Berry and Brian Paddick, eh? Hmmm…..
Shads, should the Magic Sign feel it is a little overexposed, please let it be know that its liabilities on those two can be laid off with me.
30 Why not, Yokel. Most of my posts get ignored.
20 Peter Golds
I am not a Londoner, so do not see the London regional media on a regular basis, but quite surprised you say Brian Paddick has little name recognition. Admittedly a while ago, but I thought his suspension and move from one command area to another, which was relatively big news across the country, would have run very big in the capital. Agreed, that might lose him some votes, but surprised it leaves him relatively unknown. The 7% poll rating is very disappointing, and would look to that increasing considerably in the next couple of months, assuming he gets a reasonable measure of profile.
38 I will also generously offer 20/1 Bloomberg.
40, there there. Perhaps some morris dancing would cheer you up?
Hmm. Maybe Boris is playing it low key in a piece of strategic cunning, saving all his imaginative and wondrous policies for the run up to the election? Or perhaps he’s just been playing a bit of legover with some secretaries and forgot he’s trying to become Mayor of London.
40 Peter - Ooooh!! we’ll all listen much more carefully now! Can’t go upsetting you!
43 - Given that he’s relying on other people to do the job for him if he gets it, why not also rely on other people to do the job of campaigning for his election… perfectly in character.
36 - The Mayor has responsibility (as Head of the Executive) for £10.6bn per annum budget for London (my figure of £4bn is clearly out of date - apologies)
http://www.bowgroup.org/harriercollectionitems/LondonUnderLivingstoneFINALv2.pdf (Page 4 gives total Mayoral budget)
The total Olympic budget for the 2012 Olympics is £9.6bn, but only 13% is from the Mayor’s budget and the London Development Agency. 63% is from Central Government, 23% from the Lottery.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_olympics#Financing (for sources of funding for the Olympics)
The budget is managed by the Olympic Delivery Authority and the London Organising Committee for the Olympic Games. Ken Livingstone is on the board of neither body, and therefore cannot be held solely accountable for budget mismanagement.
My point is this - even if he wasn’t a great executive, he has at least done the job, however badly. I do not feel comfortable giving such a massive budget to someone who has never really held one before (he was editor at the Spectator, not Managing Director even).
No FTSE 100 company would do it - no shareholders would accept it. London can’t and voters mustn’t.
38. Yes. We were 33/1. Then someone had £6000 on him. It would now be the worst possible outcome for Ladbrokes by a very long way.
Just to let everyone know, I will be suspending all our US prices at midnight tonight, but will have nominee and outright prices back up tomorrow morning. We may or may not have the Iowa prices back as well, depending. I don’t think we’ll be betting through the night tomorrow, although I might still change my mind about that if I think there will be enough interest outside of this site.
43/44 LOL! No need, lads. I was married for 31 years. Plenty used to being ignored.
47 - what price did you lay the £6k?
47 Shadsy, for the avoidance of doubt, can you just confirm for the benefit of all PBers that it was not me that had that £6k.
Seriously though, what kind of person has that amount on what is the political equivalent of a three-legged horse? Have they no knowledge of the record of Independents standing for the US Presidency?
47 - I was limited to £25 - presumably he’s one of your best customers - well done for laying it anyway!
49. Well, as I said, we were 33/1 when the bet was taken.
16 Bob The defection of Saj Karim MEP, LD to Tory, is one thing, and someone provided a link to a Councillor associate of his in Manchester, who has gone the same route. Manchester was, of course, one of those cities we always claimed as Tory - free. No longer. Other than that, I have seen no evidence.
53 Certainly the TV news clip I saw of Cameron arriving in the NW showed him being welcomed by Saj Karim, so it looks as if that was the media slant the Tories gave for the day.
50. The person in question is by no means a mug, Peter. In addition, I can confirm to everybody that it wasn’t you.
51. Charlie, did you try ringing? If it was on the net, the limits were set quite low on Bloomberg. You’ve always got a chance of getting more on if you ring and I would recommend that to all on here.
55 Shadsy.
Thanks. My guess is that this is a bet-to-lay ploy, but I shouldn’t press you for details of your clients.
As it happens, I’m on Bloomberg myself at 80/1, but for small amounts. I’ll only lay off if he actually announces a run.
53 / 54 Can I slink away in embarrassment? Looking at the BBC Politics page, it seems that it was the defecting Councillor meeting Dave, not Saj Karim. Apologies to all concerned.
Just spotted £2 available on McCain at 14-1 to win Iowa tommorow. Isn’t that rather generous?
Glad to see the LDs are keeping it competitive in 2008!
Boris to win - but on second preferences
London needs change!
Ave it 08. I hope that this is not “personation” and indeed you are the genuine article…
55: The usual response when I try that is “hold on sir, referring to a trader…..”. What’s so suspicious about Italian basketball and Swedish 2nd division ice hockey?
Mind you, 7 wins in a row tends to get the limits on fairly fast (most were arbs, but never mind).
60 - its the real thing! Accept no substitutes!!
46
‘My point is this - even if he wasn’t a great executive, he has at least done the job, however badly.’
Do you live in London?
Have you sampled the sub human conditions on the underground?
Aware of the violent crime statistics?
Pay Livingstone’s rocketing GLA tax (now running at a third of the council tax charge).
Have a congestion charge where 50% of the revenue goes to the operating company.
Watch your hard earned money being spent on Livingstone and his entourage on trips to Cuba,Venezuela et al.
Hard to imagine whether it be Boris ,Paddick or almost anyone else,that it could be worse.
63 - I do live in London, but clearly like it better than you do!
“Sub-human conditions on the Tube” is just silly. It is horrible in rush hour, but that is nothing to do with Ken; it is because when most of it was designed, there weren’t as many people living in London. It would be like that with any Mayor who wasn’t actually God. The rest of the time it is the best public transport of any comparable city, save maybe New York or Moscow.
Is crime too high - yes, but at least I see police officers in London, far more than I see elsewhere. Is tax too high - when is it not? - maybe, but not as serious as you make it sound.
Congestion charge - if you’re stupid enough to run a car in Central London, you deserve what you get. It’s not an eco tax, it’s a stupid tax, and I like those.
The Chavez thing annoys the hell out of me, but in the grand scheme of things, I can live with it.
The difference between us is you are voting against Ken, whereas I tend to vote for candidates. You would vote for Boris, Paddick, Zippy, George or Bungle if it got rid of Ken, and that scares me, because they haven’t done anything that qualifies them either.
I would like to join you - I cannot stand Livingstone. All the Tories had to do was find somebody qualified, and they didn’t. I was an easy swing vote, and they blew it. I cannot, and will not endorse that reckless decision on their part. Late independent?
Further embarrassment - I see the defection issue was fully discussed on the last thread. Defections have a sort of importance, but my experience is that they are generally (at Council level anyway) because people believe they should have got particular posts etc, and as an act of pique go to another party / independent. I think it is less about principles, ideology, policies etc. At Parliamentary level the politics of it becomes more important, IMO. I am not surprised by Mike’s comment about defections being common in Bedford, as IIRC, the 3 parties are very balanced there and with the emergence of barry and his colleagues there are other options. In the SW, Councils with many defections are those with many groups, eg Torridge in Devon, Penwith and Kerrier in Cornwall. You often find that people use the Independent label as a staging post in a move to another party.
23. Unless, as a Republican, you think Clinton will still squeeze through first. Clinton being talked about as inevitable and winning makes her seem inevitable. Clinton being talked about as losing and then winning by a couple of percent makes her seem lucky and beatable. I think this is Robert Novak’s thinking.
64: Istanbul’s public transport is far superior to London’s, not to mention astronomically cheaper.
The price of gold has soared to an all-time high of $855.10 an ounce: what was the price at which prudent Gordon sold our reserves?
68. £275 an ounce, or less than a third of its current value…
67 That will be the influence of Ali Kemal, Boris’ great grandfather!!
66 - Oh OK, so it’s not a fear of Obama after all. Thanks.
Ladbrokes are definately prepared to lay a decent bet… unlike a significant number of their ’so called’ competitors. I can’r get more than £5 on with Bet365. (then they change their prices!).
P.S. Shadsy, do you have a colleague called Mr. Lesage by any chance?
64
I was in Hong Kong a few months ago,the same population as London but a fraction of the area,their air conditioned,modern,clean underground was a pleasure to travel on.
Have you tried the Paris metro?
The London Underground is third world compared with the above cities,Livingstone has had 8 years to get it sorted,employed some of the most expensive experts to fix it and all we get it Metronet going bust and zero improvement.
72. Thankyou Chris. Yes, I know who you refer to. Lovely fellow.
73 - Again, I don’t find it too bad, but this is subjective. I suspect you and I don’t disagree as much as you would think on Ken, but my point remains - just because Ken has not been great, it doesn’t mean Boris would be better.
If you had a free choice of candidate, who would you want? The names that jump to mind are Richard Branson and Greg Dyke from previous polls. Both run large companies and dealt on the murky public/private border. Anyone else who is capable?
re 9 Socrates with all due respect that’s rubbish. You’ve said it before. If any MP can’t get enough local recognition of what he has done for his constituents he doesn’t deserve the job. STV will favour MPs who do do the business for their constituents and get themselves known. In STV if you wish to only vote for your own favourite candidate you can; you do not have to go tediously through your party’s slate.
re 76 oh I forgot to say, happy new year everyone!
re 68 Rod I think you’ve got your dollars and pounds mixed up
58. Tom, it’s Romney vs Huckabee for Iowa, no one else is even close. There’s a separate fight between McCain And Fred for 3rd, and it looks like Fred final numbers may suprise pundits…
Late-Breaking Surge for Thompson
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjBhM2Y3NzlkZTljYjRkYjEwM2I2OWJkODJkYzk0MDc=
75 Definitely not Branson - Livingstone does enough stunts and self publicity! Also I’d rather take the tube than rely on Virgin bus replacement services. But then I don’t have a vote in this election
I wonder if DC will open up with the Gold price as a question of Gordo’s competency at the next PMQ’s?
68. Never mind Gordon, I bought at just over $700 an ounce a while back and am delighted by its current rise.
Might be a value bet to name 1st four.
1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: Fred Thompson
4th Place: John McCain
Will come back again with my predictions for Democrats in a moment.
79. Oddly, it may be that McCain has been taking a bit of Romney and Thompson off Huckabee.
83.
My Democratic selections in finishing order
1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson
78. $hit! Finger s£ipped!
Iam pleased to see this poll
Ibacked Boris after GB pulled back from the a ge
I see a link with tory poll ratings and the strength of tory support in the outer boroughs
Main weakness in the betting strategy is the boris risk but if he starts out in 2008 as he indicates he will I believe he will move ahead
Another big factor is the evening standard scandal story. This makes tories vote, it reminds them of ken in the 70s and most voters who actually vote can remember this
Happy new mayor 2008
72: Sure, wasn’t having a pop at ladbrokes, they have decent limits (and show them pre-bet unlike most others), and pay really quick also - 6 hours from withdrawal to my moneybookers account, very nice. Good to have posts here from a bookies perspective also, that’s quite open-minded of them to allow that (if you tried that with the typical Carribean bookie you’d be walking the plank pretty quick, some of them, quite literally).
Wish they offered lower juice though - 89% on 1×2 sports is a bit old fashioned in the internet era. For comparison stanjames are 91%, canbet/coral are 93%, bet365 are 94/95%, and on asians the gap is greater, with a number of 98% bookies out there, and even some 98.5%.
73 - “The London Underground is third world…”
comments like that are very silly.
89. No. They are increasingly accurate. Soon enough the abuse will be reversed too, with ‘third world’ countries complaining that their transport systems are as bad as London’s.
I have 7-3 Boris over Ken (commission paid) with greens on the rest.Just laid 2.62 Boris and have £32.70p to go on BF.
I took my time about it but finally took the plunge and laid KL and backed BJ last week.
Boris is a very double-edged candidate and in some ways I would prefer to see a steadier pair of hands in there.He always has the potential to implode and yet might have the right kind of profile with the public to see Livingstone off.
90 - you really have no idea!
92. On the contrary. The clueless ones are those like yourself who insist on comforting themselves with ridiculous notions of how Britain’s health/transport/education systems are the ‘envy of the world’.
93 i think you are what others would define as a creature?
Having experienced public transport in rio de janeiro opver a period of several weeks I can say that London is without doubt better although much more expensive (possibly not relative to avg income). Rio, in one of the more develpoed countries of the third world has an utterly hopeless and very dangerous bus system. It has one (one for a city of 10m people!) very good underground line which is unlikely to take you where you want to go.
I have visited quite a few countries in recent years and none had a metro system as bad or expensive as Londons - including the likes of China and Mexico - countries we would often look down our noses at.
85 - It is interesting that you think Richardson will actually get 4th place in Iowa. Daily Kos was taking another look at him today, and he is polling around 12% - so they are calling him kingmaker. Finally, somebody suggested - “Hey, maybe he’d make a good VP”.
If he manages 15%, that gives him a very strong negotiating position for the VP slot with either Hillary or Obama (I think Edwards is finished after Iowa). To go with Hillary makes sense - similar platform, they got on quite well, he worked for Bill. To go with Obama means that he would be the presumptive nominee in 8 years (whereas with Hillary, he would be facing Obama in 8 years).
The benefit to either Hillary or Obama isn’t just his record (US Congressman, Govenor, Cabinet Secretary, Ambassador to UN). It is the role he plays in New Mexico during the election. NM voted Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004 - it is a classic swing state, with a Democratic Governor, a Senator from each party, and 2 GOP members v 1 Dem in its House delegation. To win New Mexico secures 5 Electoral College votes, as well as boosting Hispanic vote shares nationally (think Colorado, Florida, Arizona). This is particularly important for Obama, who (common to many black Democrats) does not poll as well with Hispanic voters.
As well as the Presidential race, there is a GOP US Senate seat going in 2008, and all the state’s House Congressional delegates are standing. If Richardson is on the ticket, Tom Udall (from the famous family - Mark Udall is running for Senate in Colorado) wins, giving the Dems both US Senators. A good turn-out would see 2 of the 3 open house seats (with no incumbants) going Democratic (NM 1st around Albequerque should go GOP to Dem), resulting in ‘plus one’ for Dem delegations in both Chambers of US Congress.
Richardson is third behind Wes Clarke (2nd) and *Evan Bayh* (1st) on InTrade, with a likelihood of 12%, but the market is clouded with nonsense (I reckon 50% of accounted-for probabilities would be ridiculed on this site). This price is guaranteed to rise, and if Richardson gets 15% tomorrow, it will rise very quickly.
92 - They are not the envy of the world. But they are not third world?
Would you rather travel on Cambodian roads, have your children educated in a Kenyan village school with no facilities and get treated in a Ugandan hospital?
Be gone, creature…
The reason the Tube is the way it is is simple - it’s when it was built. And we’ve always taken the view that the way to modernise it is to build new lines rather than upgrade the old ones. (For example, the Metropolitan District Railway wanted to build a deep level tube to relieve pressure on its main line, now the District Line, getting on for 100 years ago. We got the Piccadilly Line instead.)
Every public transport “expert” agreed with Ken that PPP would be a disaster, he fought it in the courts and lost - what are we supposed to believe the Tories would have done - thrown oodles and oodles of public money at the problem?
Speaking as a travel journalist, who has visited a dozen countries in the last year, and 70 odd countries in total, I think I can speak with some authority: I can happily report that London’s public transport system is jolly good. And I am no fan of Ken’s.
It is just as good as New York or Paris, probably better than the former; it is miles ahead of any third world country in extent, efficiency, etc (you have to remember London’s Tube system, for instance, is one of the biggest in the world).
Only Hong Kong, that I know of, has a seriously superior metro, and Hong Kong’s bus system ain’t so hot.
However our system SHOULD be good. London is arguably the richest city in the world. And the Tube is £4 a ticket!
The question about TfL should really be: given how much we pay for it in taxes and fares, are we getting value for money?
That is much more questionable.
97 “Be gone, creature…”
SBS, the way to get rid of a Creature is to talk about betting. They cannot abide it. The other night we had a betting thread in which we got to post 186 before the first Creature showed up.
You have to ask questions like ‘How does your view of the London Undeground assist in assessing the value in the odds of the two main protagonists in the Mayoral election?’ This is likely to induce a silence and with luck might even persuade the Creature that it has wandered onto the wrong Site.
Simply trying to point out the silliness of their argument is hopeless. If they were capable of comprehension, they wouldn’t be posting in the first place - and certainly not here.
Nite nite mate. I’m off to Uncle. The pubs are closed and I suspect there are more Creatures on their way.
99 Thanks SeanT for that dose of common sense. It’s been in dwindling supply this evening.
Bonsoir.
99 - Speaking as a northerner, I can confirm that London’s public transport system is bloody marvellous. Southerners who whinge about their public transport system really don’t know they’re born; in no other city in the country is it so easy or cheap to live without a car. But then when the whole country gets to subsidise London’s transport as well as our own local transport, it damn well should be that good.
Good night PtP
102 - Actually, I do love the tube. It’s just so much better laid out than virtually any comparable system in the world. Contrast it wit hthe Paris Metro which meanders hopelessly about the city so vaguely that in most cases you’re better off walking, and which smells atrocious. Or the New York subway which is not so much a network as a set of largely unconnected north-south railways through Manhattan. Fantastic.
And - quite irrelevantly to the argument, but as I’m on about that sort of thing - while ordinarily I’d insist that everything in London had an equivalent in the north that was somehow better (or at least just as good), can I just point out how WONDERFUL London’s stand-on-the-right-of-the-escalator policy is? People in the provinces can’t use escalators, and consequently escalators normally end up as much slower versions of stairs.
And that is the last thing you will ever hear me concede is better about London than the north.
And while I’m here and interjecting into half-dead conversations, can I just bring up the subject of the defection in Manchester again? Only I now live half a mile away from the ward in question and find it interesting.
1) I’m surprised to note that this is the front page of the Manchester Evening News. We often tell ourselves that it’s only us anoraks who care about this sort of thing, but clearly it’s resonating at least slightly wider than that.
2) Whalley Range is the sort of ward that - were it in London - might be Conservative already. Three miles or so south west of the city centre; big, stolid Victorian houses flanking leafy streets; home to all sorts of besuited commuters. A generation and a half ago, this was one of Manchester’s finer areas, and must have been Conservative at some point in the last 30 years (1976, I expect?). The area went seriously downhill as the middle classes fled the cities, and became bedsit-land (Morrissey sung of ‘a rented room in Whalley Range’ in the Smiths’ ‘Miserable Lie’). But it’s perked up a lot in the last fifteen years or so as people have moved back to the cities and is now rather fashionable again, although the ward does also contain a slightly frightening council estate.
3) The area’s gentrification, though, seems to be doing the Tories no good at all, and, as in much of middle-class-ish Manchester, the Lib Dems have successfully squeezed the Tory vote down to almost nothing at all. (The Tories now poll much more respectably at council level in the more working class areas in Wythenshawe and Blackley constituencies - where the Lib Dems are weak - than in the middle class wards of the Withington constituency.)
4) I can’t really see him taking enough voters with him for the Tories to hold his Whalley Range seat when it comes up in three-and-a-bit years time. The Tories polled less than 10% here last time. Even so, after City Centre and Brooklands, this will probably represent the Tories’ third best hope in Manchester in 2011. Assuming he’s still there by then.
38 - just hope the customer knows that there is a £10k maximum payout on political bets (according to Ladbrokes terms and conditions)!
Er Cookie. Have you tried to get south London by tube?
The New York subway penetrates Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx.
It is far easier to get to most of NYC using the subway than the tube in London. The route mileage is similar, London about 260 miles compared to New Yorks 230 miles, BUT NYC has an area half that of London and theer are about twice as many stations as in London. The NY Transit Police is the fifth largest in the US adn theer is at least one legendary song all about the New York Subway - Duke Ellington’s “Take the A Train” (207 Street Manhattan to Lefferts Boulevard (Queens)
Undergrounds - Berlin and Tokyo - in addition to Hong Kong mentioned by seant seemed very good when I have used them. There is something about the Paris Metro I am not that keen on - it seems all very genteel, but not well signed, and doesn’t seem to serve places I have wanted to go - but they are there mainlyfor residents, after all! Moscow always looks brilliant, but not tried it yet. Personally, I would only knock London in terms of times when cancellations seem more frequent than actual trains.
102. Quite so, Cookie. Indeed it is a positive hassle having a car in London. I’m only now getting one, after 25 years of living here, coz I need one to cart my two year old daughter around.
Otherwise, as you say, it is perfectly feasible, indeed preferable, to get around town without a car, if you can. There are few cities in the world where you can really say that, let alone in the UK.
And the point about London’s tube system bears repetition. It is MASSIVE. Sure if you compare it to, say, Bangkok’s Skytrain it appears to come off worse, in terms of punctuality and modern trains etc.
But the Skytrain was all built in the last ten years, it only covers about a tenth of the city, it has a coupla dozen stations, etc.
London’s Tube has hundreds of stations, a dozen lines, plus the DLR, and it goes as far as the bloody countryside. It is the oldest in the world, probably the most complex, and still one of the busiest. And the Oyster card rocks.
And now after that paean to my hometown’s mass transit, I shall retire to my tent in Bedistan. A belated Happy New Year to all peebles.
107 But, Peter, that’s historic - I think you have to look at the electric lines served by the Former Southern Railway (BR, S Region) in conjunction with the Tube to get a balanced picture.
107 - fair point - but South London is very well served by overland rail. There is a higher density of rail stations in South London than anywhere else in the country. The point is that it’s a network. Yes there are more stops in New York, but if your destination isn’t on the same line as your origin, it’s rather more difficult to get to it. London’s NETWORK is a thing of rare neat beauty. Though I never understood why that northern bit of the District Line stopped frustratingly at Edgware Road rather than extending one extra stop to Baker Street to interchange with three other lines.
Sounds like a new poll in the Independent - Tories 41%, Labour 32%
BTW it’s not just us Londoners being biassed, the world agrees that the Smoke has the best public transport system on the planet:
http://tinyurl.com/2y5mt2
Of course, tourists don’t have to pay nearly a fiver to go to East Finchley every time they forget their Oyster card en route to the childminders.
112 - Do you have a link for the poll?
Thanks
And Peter - I’ll see your ‘take the A train’ and I’ll raise you the Jam’s ‘Going Underground’. Though I concede it doesn’t paint the system in quite such a rosy light…
114 - no - it just came up in the Sky paper review, so we wait to see exactly what it is.
115. And don’t forget “Down in the Tube Station at Midnight” - OK it is about being beaten up by thugs, but still.
Any other cool songs about the Tube? or indeed the buses?
112 - If correct that would be Com Res and Cons n/c and Lab +2.
117 - Ah, well done Sean - that’s the one I meant. Though maybe Going Underground is about the Underground too? Anyway, lots of songs about stations: Waterloo Sunset (the Kinks), London (the Smiths - ’smoke, lingers round your fingers, the train, heaves on to Euston…’), Victoria (the Kinks - maybe stretching that one a bit…)
Most amusing on Sky News just now
2 child like lefties saying that Indies latest 9 point lead for Dave means nothing and everyone really trusts Mr Bean
At least the Sky News head did a little arguing for once
119. Actually there are surprisingly few songs about the Tube itself (or maybe that’s not so surprising) - I’ve been Googling. Most references are tangential - as in the Kinks and various Madness songs, etc.
More directly, housewives’ favourite David Essex sang “picture us, on a Number 9 bus, to Canning Town we two” in his overlooked minor masterpiece* of sentimental cockney schmaltz: ‘If I Could’.
(*I’m serious, it’s a really touching little pop song).
Can’t think of any others offhand.
On topic, I imagine Cameron will be pleased with a 9% lead on ComRes after being practically invisible all Xmas.
Ok all - I’ve been doing some analysis on the New Hampshire primaries in 2000 (last time both parties were competitive) to see how Independents split between the primaries.
Independents are a plurality in New Hampshire, at around 38%, with 35% GOP registered, and 27% Democrat registered. 53% of voters attended one of the primaries in 2000, which is historically high, but expected again this time, weather permitting. I cannot find any data that supports that any one group is *significantly* more likely to vote than any of the others. Turnout within these three groups appears to be comparable.
This means that in 2000, about 140k Republicans, 145k Independents, and 106k Democrats voted - 392k voters.
237k went to the GOP primary, where 30% (or 71k) voted Bush, and 49% (or 116k) voted McCain. Of these 237k, 140k are estimated to have been GOP registered, leaving 96.5k Independents voting.
155k went to the Dem primary, where 50% (77.5k) voted Gore, and 46% (71k) Senator Bradley. Of these 155k, 105k are estimated to have been Dem registered, leaving 49k Independents voting.
SO: Of the estimated 145.5k Independents in NH who voted, two-thirds voted in the GOP primary, giving McCain 49%. This could be extrapolated from a 60:40 turnout ration GOP:Democrat.
McCain’s biggest problem is not that NH voters generally prefers Romney or Huckabee to him - they don’t. The GOP registered ones don’t particularly like him, but he can win 49% of the vote *as long as the Independents vote in the GOP primary not the Democrat one*.
McCain’s biggest competition in New Hampshire is Barack Obama.
So, you will be able to guess McCain’s share of the vote in NH on the night by calculating from the reported turnout at each contest, and the ratio between those turnout figures, because that tells you where the Independents are voting.
Where will the Independents vote? Well that depends on who wins Iowa. If Clinton wins Iowa, expect many people to say the Democrat race is over (as they did in 2000 when Gore beat Bradley in Iowa), and we will see a repeat of 2000 in the Republican primary. If Obama beats Clinton, McCain will struggle to top 30% of the vote.
Just read ‘The Independent’’s poll on their page fpr tomrrow’s national daily-the poll is an average of several pollsters very late in2007;namely ICM,Ipsos,MORI,Populus,You Gov and Com Res
The averaged results are:
Conservative 41%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 16%
Others 11%
Which,based upon whichever mathamtical model the edotor used,would yield an overall majority of 16 seats for the Tories,on 333 seats.
Entirely agree with Cookie’s view of the Tube, as someone who spends half his time in Lonmdon and half in Nottingham (which is I think where Cookie comes from originally?). But critics are talking about different things. The Tube is fast, reliable, only crowded at rush hours, reasonably-priced for regular (Oyster) users and goes to most parts of the capital faster than you can get across Nottingham by any form of transport. It’s also dirty, madly crowded at peak times, and expensive for one-off fares. I don’t care about dirty windows or crowds, I just want to get quickly from A to B. People who talk about third world systems presumably feel differently.
Don’t know any songs about it, but there’s a book - an entire Ruth Rendell murder mystery where the Tube is the central character.
Anyone backing Boris for Mayor is not filling their boots - their chucking their money away.
Given Labour’s current difficulties, the Tories lead in the Borough elections last year and YouGov’s bias towards the Tories this is a good poll for Ken and suggests a comfortable victory in May.
People need to remember that Ken get 1/4 million votes more than the Labour ticket and wins very safe Tory wards like Chiswick Riverside and Tudor in Kingston.
123: ah, an average of apples, pears and bananas then. The Indie gets more tabloidy every week that pass
…es!
125 Ken get (sic) 1/4 million votes more than the Labour ticket
I assume you meant “got” and got is the operative word.
89
Have you actually sampled the underground systems in Hong Kong,Paris or New York?
126. Still, an average that “feels” right, wouldn’t you say? I think double digit leads for Cameron are over doing it, however I do not believe Labour is scraping back to nearly level pegging, as those 5% Tory leads seemed to indicate before Xmas.
“Conservatives 9% ahead” seems about right to me, after the disastrous last few months for Labour. It also chimes with my anecdotal observation of my Christmas dining companions (a more mixed bunch than you might imagine).
I think the public has a general and sincere disenchantment with Labour, but there’s nothing verging on hatred - yet; there is also a general sense of maybe-its-time-to-give-Cameron-a-go, without any huge enthusiasm for the Tories - yet.
The trend is obvious, but Brown can still reverse it, if he’s very clever and rather lucky. I’m not sure he’s either.
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last few days researching this market, and this poll came as a real surprise in the context of Ken’s highest ever net satisfaction rating just three months ago: http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:vg7OVmfIyMkJ:www.london.gov.uk/mayor/consultation/docs/2007-09-toplines.rtf+%22Are+you+satisfied+or+dissatisfied+with+the+way+Ken+Livingstone+is+doing+his+job+as+Mayor+of+London%3F%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=16&client=opera
I’m looking forward to seeing how the raw data looks, and where the second preferences go.
130 Brown is undeniably very clever and he’s certainly very lucky - after all he got to be Prime Minister without the small matter of being elected to the top job in the land. But these two characteristics are not those required to restore Labour’s fortunes, rather they need a different leader.
129. The systems of those famous third world countries. There are some complete idiots on this site, the London Underground is one of the most consistent services around.
129. I have. I have also tried the subways in Tokyo, Cairo, Moscow, Berlin, LA, Mexico City, Munich, Rome, Madrid, Barcelona, Osaka, Bangkok, Bucharest….
London’s system is one of the very best on all considerations, apart from perhaps price.
And now I really am off to bed
132. Take yr point, but Brown’s luck seems to have deserted him of late. And as for very clever… hmm… I think he has tactical nous, and he’s quite a good partisan schemer. But a grand strategic thinker? Nah.
If Brown is clever, then he is clever-clever. He thinks too hard.
Put it another way, only an idiot would have thought the Lisbon non-signing was a good idea. That’s what Brown is. An idiot savant.
#1 I believe the last poll that asked about second preferences was in early November, and it suggested 40% of Paddick’s second preferences would go to Livingstone and 29% to Johnson: http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/LPI-ES%20for%20website%2021-Nov-2007.pdf
122. Morus. Interesting analysis and I finally get the point about the Independent vote in NH. But there appear to be at least a couple of questionable points in your argument.
You may not have found any data that suggests that any particular group is *significantly* more likely to vote than any other. Personally I wouldn’t even know where to begin to look for such evidence but that statement doesn’t persuade me that there is no difference in voting intentions between the three groups. Logically I would expect a registered party member would be more likely to vote than an Independent, unless the data proved otherwise.
The second point I would question is that the Independents will largely choose to direct their votes in one direction, in response to the Iowa caucuses outcome. If I was an Independent, which would describe all floating voters, I would use my vote to promote the chances of the candidate that I most favoured from either party, unless I had a strong aversion to one particular candidate, in which case I would use my vote in a STOP fashion, irrespective of the needs of my preferred candidate. After all Independents and all voters do get a further vote in the Presidential election itself.
So I wonder if you overrate the consequence of the Iowa caucus outcome for voting intentions of Independents in NH? Personally I hope, both from preference and my own betting positions that Obama wins and that Romney loses their respective contests. If this happens then I would hope and expect that there will be sufficient momentum with the Obama camp and against the Romney camp for both Obama and Mccain to prevail in NH and ultimately in winning their nominations.
seanT at 130: fair analysis, I think (this is one of those WW1 Christmas truce moments, eh?), though my guess at the ‘real’ lead is about 7%, and as you say not much passion in it either way at the moment. People don’t think there will be a GE for ages so outside the ranks of activists they can’t be bothered to get much engaged.
Peter at 131: Interesting poll that I missed at the time, especially because despite the random error you’d expect when sampling two groups, there are virtually no significant differences between Muslims and everyone else on almost anything - which seems to me pretty encouraging from the viewpoint of cohesion. Insofar as there are, they are marginally surprising - Muslims are slightly more keen on Britian and England and slightly less unfavourable to the war in Iraq (though keen to pull out now).
I have a charity bet here on Ken, and don’t feel very worried by the poll that started the thread. Ken will I think get the lion’s share of LibDem and Green votes on the second ballot.
Extraordinarily close bunching of the four prominent Republican candidates’ odds on Betfair this evening and a tightening of Huck’s price which was really so obviously going to happen in anticipation of the Iowa contest, irrespective of where he goes from here - maybe the last opportunity to lay him at attractive single digit odds?
138. Nick. I would interpret “ages” as at least two years?
139. Yes. It’s been a fascinating market tonight PfP. A lot of position adjusting on the eve of Iowa.
140 There speaketh a fellow twothousandandtenite!
What are the prices for unlimited in London these days? Whenever I’m down there it’s only for short time, so I just buy singles.
New York’s subway is terrific value - looking at my CC bill I paid 35 quid for a month’s metrocard, and that includes buses. Terrific in Manhattan (once you get used to it!), not so much past the first few stops into Brooklyn/Queens. Best thing is how shallow the system is - you can hop down a flight of stairs, straight on a train the next minute, makes casual travel very easy. London’s is truly an underground, NY’s is merely just under the streets.
136 - Great posts. They did split 40:29 Ken:Boris, but 2nd preferences for the ‘Other’ as first choice (which was tied with Paddick on 8% of first choices) split 26-14-11 (Johnson-Livingstone-Paddick), which implies that the second round will be made closer than the suggested margin of 45-39 between Boris and Ken in the first round (see linked poll in post 136).
Ken has won 38% and 35% of the first round vote in the last two Mayoral elections. In both cases this was because the LDs got 14%ish, which they won’t this time (because it matters). However, 20% of the vote last time went to candidates not representing the major parties - so the idea that Boris and Ken will split 89% in the first round (as this new poll claims) is probably not correct.
LDs will split 60:40 Ken:Boris, the real question is what will be the second preference of the people who vote ‘Other’ in the first round - voters who choose, as their first choice, the Green Party, Independents, UKIP, BNP, RESPECT?
138. Yes, in the Boxing Day spirit of kicking a football between the trenches, I’ll swap my Kendal mintcake for your kartoffelsalat*
*I’ve only put you as the German coz of your acknowledged admiration for things Swiss. Nothing personal.
So, yes, we agree on the state of public emotions. I also agree with you that the poll cited at 131, by Peter, is quite encouraging - in terms of Muslims integrating with wider British society.
My whole attitude to Muslims has calmed down a bit since 7/7, when I had my fit of the Martin Amises. I hope this continues. FWIW I actually made a FEMALE Muslim friend in Cairo recently - a very smart Egyptian journalist called Ethar. I tease her about her headscarf, she calls me a drunk. It’s cool.
Peace to all the nations!
I still hope Cameron kicks yr butt in 2010 of course. And I am increasingly confident he will. N’nite.
142. Well he did say “ages”. Isn’t age measured in years?
143 Andrew - even if a one day travelcard is uneconomic for you, you should certainly invest in an oyster card which is available from any tube station and effectively halves the equivalent cash fare and can also provide you with half price bus fares - you simply prepay however much you wish and any credit left over can be used on your next visit.
137 - I cannot outright disagree with you on any of those points!
I suspect that Independents are more politically engaged (like to keep their options open, not a default choice of party) so would be more likely to vote than Dem/GOP registered voters, but I can’t find any evidence to either your side of the fence or mine. I rely on the weak argument that if it was *very* significant (5% turnout or more), then I would be able to find some reference to it!
The second point is very well made - I don’t know what they vote on really. I suspect they want to feel like their vote ‘counts’ as much as possible, which might explain why they voted in the GOP race in 2000 (a sitting VP like Gore should have been a shoo-in). I suspect they will support any attractive *viable* candidate, and a certain type of result in Iowa could make Obama look no longer viable.
I suppose my point is that Independents in New Hampshire like John McCain and Obama, and do not really like any of the others. The percentages for the other Republicans and Edwards are fairly fixed - the difference will be what share of the vote Obama and McCain *get* in NH, and that depends on how the Independents split between the parties, not between candidates within a party.
Maybe Iowa won’t influence them. The state has drifted Democrat since 2000, and that may make more feel closer to the Dem race than the Republican. However, I cannot help but feel that if Obama is close/wins Iowa, McCain will get 30%, whereas if Obama finished 3rd, McCain will get over 40%. Or maybe, if Obama doesn’t do so well, NH Independents decide that they will resurrect his campaign, and all flock to the Dem race!
Either way, INHO, use the “split by party of the Independents” - not the “split between candidates within a party” - combined with turnout figures, as the guide for who wins NH.
New Hampshire is Obama v McCain (round one?).