So what can we expect in 2008?
January 3rd, 2008
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A look ahead to the year in politics
It can often be foolhardy to predict the year ahead in public, as one’s predictions can often look ridiculous by the end of the year - or if you’re lucky, extraordinarily prescient. With that in mind, a few thoughts on 2008, for the UK, USA, and the rest of the world.
UK
My “long view” is that May 2010 will be the election date, and I’m predicting a Conservative majority, alongside a Tory endorsement by The Sun and some large swings in key marginal seats, especially in the South. Brown will fight the election, not having either been toppled or stepped down in the meantime. In 2008, I’m expecting the Tories to remain dominant in the opinion polls, with the Lib Dems staging a small recovery under Clegg. In a year’s time I predict Labour will be at least 10 points behind in the polls, and there must be a fair chance that the deficit gets into the teens. Anthony Wells says “I think Brown is finished”, and I don’t see any compelling reasons to disagree. The major UK election this year is the London Mayoral contest in May, and Boris could yet run Ken very close, but I’ll predict a final score of 52-48 to Livingstone.
USA
A great deal is set to happen almost immediately, with Iowa voting today and New Hampshire next Tuesday, followed by a string of primaries ahead of “Super Duper Tuesday” in early February. My picks are as follows - Hillary to be the Democrat nominee, and for the GOP, Romney. Rudy’s “I’m not saying it’s flawed, but it’s untried” strategy will in the event not prove sufficient, and of the remaining candidates McCain may have the best chance of stopping Romney, but New Hampshire looks like a “must-win” for the Arizona senator. I think that the Republicans cannot be written off in the White House race, and if Clinton is the nominee, remember her high negatives.
The GOP remain outstanding value on Betfair at 2.7 (also 7/4 with Ladbrokes), so if the thought of a Republican successor to Bush makes you cringe, why not take out some “insurance” and back them on the markets? Romney to be next President at 11/1 with Bet 365 and Paddy Power looks tasty too. As a final thought on the US, I’d suggest you consider ignoring the UK media and concentrate on American sources. The British media is simply too Democrat-biased - and the pro-Democrat trend is also shown on Betfair, where of the two races, the GOP is more wide open, but lags the Democrats by 321K to 546K in amounts traded.
International
Pakistan will remain under heavy scrutiny, where the election has now been put back to 18th February. There’s a clutch of elections in March, in Russia, Spain, Taiwan, and Zimbabwe. No prizes for tipping Medvedev and Mugabe as winners, although Spain could be close as Zapatero seeks a second term for the PSOE - there were some good Spanish posts on yesterday’s thread here (posts 2,12,15,19). Late spring will see the Irish referendum on the EU Treaty, where Sarkozy and Merkel will travel to Dublin to help Bertie Ahern win a “Yes” vote - could Ireland, the only public vote in the 27 EU countries, put a spanner in the Treaty? Finally, New Zealand will hold an election in the autumn, and the Nationals are currently comfortably ahead in the polls.
Can I take this opportunity to wish you all a very Happy New Year and a successful year’s punting on the markets, the latest prices for which are here.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
Mike Smithson returns tomorrow
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Despite it being this year, I think it’s too early to suggest what might happen with the Livingstone-Johnson race. It hasn’t really kicked off yet, has it? I feel the May 2010 election is in a higher gear than the mayoral one. It’ll come sooner than we think and I bet it will all change if someone does something about it.
If you are confident of Clinton winning, don’t be voting on the Blue Sq. site (evens for Clinton to win). Go onto the Betfair Site that has odds of 1.2/1 for the next president to be female.
Its only a matter of time before the media gets bored with kicking Brown (at least as hard as they have been ) and we get fight back stories. Brown retains the initiative of incumbency, interest rates have started to fall and rember the 2p tax cut is programmed for April. ou don’t stay as Chancelor or Heir presumptive for 10 years without nouse, luck and dep reserves. I simply don’t buy the ” he’s finished” line at such an early stage. My ( probably inept) predictions for the year are.
1. Lib Dems continue to drift and ambigious local election results lead to muttering about Clegg. Did anyone else hear him on Today yesterday morning ? I cringed.
2. Labour will add point or two to vote share in the locals and losses ( except wales) will be limted as hey have already hit rock bottom in so many areas.
3. Conservatives will continue to do well in the polls but will recieve much more scrutiny as peole begin to imagine him on the steps of downing street. I feel the public mood that thy are ick of the current lot but I there really any popular enthusiasm for the Tories?
4. The replacement of benazir bhutto with her ill regarded husband and a 19 year old who wil be Oxford will signifigantly weaken the PPP, the only credible national institution in pakista aside from the army. There is going to be trouble, big trouble.
5. in the USA (a) mccain will win if the rep nominee. (b) Clinton will win i he isn’t and she will perhaps not until february be the dmocratic nominee. My feeling is that time for a change is more powerful than hilary’s negatives (just). As mccain is the only republican who can embody change then its his or hers.
Gut feeling is that it’ll be President Romney. Pure gut feeling. Its hard to appreciate from afar the extent to which the GOP establishment is lining up behind him. Add that to superb organisation, lots of money, decent track record and you have a formidable candidate, notwithstanding all the shameful flip-flopping and negative campaigning
Short term and parochial: food prices have shot up this year, and we are only two and a half days in! There is a cold snap, and fuel is dear. The government seems to have hit on a strategy of headline-chasing initiatives, many of which will annoy Labour supporters (raising the school leaving age, staggering police pay, denying health care to fat people).
Medium term: Northern Rock could go either way. Falling house prices will be a blessing to many. Gordon Brown might yet dump the idiots around him.
America: Bush is deeply unpopular but Bush will not be the Republican candidate, just as Brown is not Blair and Major was not Thatcher.
Great piece Paul, many thanks - you should do this more often. Helpful link, too, to Anthony Wells’ pretty damning indictment of Brown as being “finished”.
Interesting that you think Romney will win the GOP nomination - even after alll the recent hype over firstly Huckabee and then more recently McCain - I’m not so sure except that I don’t somehow think it will be long term favourite Giuliani.
Your suggestion of an insurance bet on the Republicans appears sound and I would just mention that VC’s odds of 1.8-1 are slightly better than those offered by either Betfair or Ladbrokes to which you refer.
“President Romney” sounds like the least likely of all the six main options to me, but I tend to be not very good at predicting things. I think the Republican candidate will be Giuliani or McCain, and the parties’ chances of winning are 50:50. If it’s Huckabee, the chances are 30:70 in favour of the Democrat candidate.
The general election will be in May 2009 and it will be a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.
8 Because I don’t think Brown is psychologically suited or mentally tough enough to be Prime Minister, I expect him to leave office on account of “ill health” between December ‘08 and June’09. His successor will either call a GE either immediately thereafter or in May 2010. On this hypothesis, I expect Labour to be the largest party in a hung Parliament winning between 295 and 305 seats and therefore to enter a fourth term of Government with their friends, the Lib Dems, in exchange for promising electoral reform.
Should Brown somehow soldier on until 2010, I expect the Tories to win a miniscule overall majority of between 5-15 seats.
Plaid Cymru make solid advances in May.
President McCain (especially if Clinton is Dem candidate). Narrow PP win in Spain. Bye bye Belgium?
Wendy Alexander manages to cling on, but drags Scottish Labour to record poll depths. Nicol Stephen has nervous breakdown, Scott takes over. Scotsman sales continue nosedive. North Sea Oil hits $120. Andy Murray takes Beijing gold.
2009: Labour hold just 1 MEP in Scotland.
May 2010: small Tory maj. June 2010: Scottish independence referendum - Yes 56% No 44%.
… oh yeah, and one raging certainty for 2008, 2009, 2010 and the rest of time: Mark Senior will continue to be the most ridiculously over-rated spin-chump here at pb.com
Andrea rules!!
11 deleted?
Oh, I see that Paul Maggs is less tolerant of Lab GAIN comments than Mike. Probably wise.
11 - Stuart I’ve sent you an email.
Thanks.
That last thread was very good. Sadly, I’ve moved out of London, so can’t vote against Ken, but will be doing some canvassing. I can’t see Paddick doing as badly as 7%, or Others as badly as 4% (I’d expect to see the BNP and Green candidates each top 5%). If this poll is accurate (and Yougov did overstate Norris slightly in 2004) then I think Boris will just take it. Broadly, I’d expect the left/right split in London to be about 52/44% in May, but not all Lib Dem voters will transfer to Ken.
My forecasts, for what they’re worth:
In the US, Hillary takes the nomination after a long and bitter process. Early successes for Obama in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina lead to him taking a narrow plurality of primary nominees. However, at the DNC, the votes of party grandees (who have their own delegates) lead to a Clinton victory. The Democrats are riven by in-fighting.
Things are little better for the Republicans. Huckabee fades after an early Iowa win. McCain grabs New Hampshire. Romney - to everyone’s surprise - then picks up South Carolina, pipping Huckabee. Giuliani doesn’t win Florida, but does pick up all the major North Eastern states. Come the Republican convention, no candidate has a majority. A stitch-up sees Romney (who had the most delegates, but lagged McCain and Guiliani in terms of popular vote) become the candidate.
Seeing an opportunity, Bloomberg enters the race. His Independent streak, and limitless funds (not to mention his general moderate-ness), see him take an early poll lead. Voters disaffected by the in-fighting of the other parties, seem captivated by the technocratic Bloomberg.
On the night, many of Bloomberg’s supporters fail to show. On abysmally low turnout, Clinton edges Bloomberg into second, to continue the Bush-Clinton dynasties…
Despite the ICM poll, (why do pollsters bother at this time of year) I still think Ken will win, as D day approaches, London voters will drift away from Boris.
On the national front, by the spring Brown’s position will become clearer. The Labour party does not have a history of, ‘back stabbing’ it leaders, but ‘New Labour’ may be different.
In the USA, don’t write Clinton off, if her husband was the, ‘Come back Kid’ she may be the, ‘Come back Kidette’
14. Would certainly make for an excellent TV show!
Personally I’m of the rather boring opinion that it’ll be Romney v Clinton with Clinton winning.
(Backup prediction is substituting Obama for Clinton)
Larry Elliott’s advice on how to survive 2008.
read and digest!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jan/03/creditcrunch.houseprices
I can’t see anything too exciting domestically on the political front again this year.
Clegg won’t make much of an impression this year. Lib leaders - going back to Thorpe - always struggle for a couple of years.
Cameron will continue to prosper. Osborne will continue to improve.
Brown and Labour won’t go into meltdown. Local losses will be fewer as they are starting from a low base. And Ken will probably win.
I can’t see the polls much different this time next year.
Re. 5, I’m not sure Labour supporters in (former) mining areas will be too bothered by staggering police pay…. Raising the school leaving age, yes, as there’s already a (justified) feeling that secondary education is far too weighted towards the academic and theoretical, and offers far too little for the practical and vocational-minded (though, in the government’s defence, further education or apprenticeships will be options on offer, not just more school).
Re. 7, ‘I never make predictions. I never have, I never will’ - Tony Blair.
19 - raising the school leaving age is a misnomer. Getting on for a half stay on after 16 - it won’t affect them. A quarter go to college of some sort. It won’t affect them. Some go into employment at present; their employers will be forced to offer some sort of formalised training or apprenticeship (excellent). And about 10% do nothing on leaving school. Obviously the intention is to deliver some sort of training to these, but it won’t be “school” as we understand it.
My forecasts:
- President Mc Cain (beating Hillary quite easily)
- But consolidated majority for Democrats in House and Senate
- New right-wing mayors for London and Paris
- Virtual tie in Spanish elections. PSOE holding up to power through a weak alliance with regional nationalists
9- Stuart
Don’t dream, Federer will win the Olympics (and at least 3 grand slam events)
My predictions (remember no one ever lost money betting against them!) is that it’ll be Giuliani V Clinton with Clinton winning. Clinton surprising everyone with the size of her win in Iowa likewise Huckabee for the GOP.
In the UK Brown will find his feet as Cameron’s shortcomings become exposed. His technique of hoisting anything populist up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes will start to wear thin. He’ll start being compared to Blair at his worst and serious commentators will yearn for the return of the ‘conviction politician’ which will coincide with………..
Brown getting a strategist from one of the better ad agencies and instead of amplifying his weaknesses he will start playing to his strengths. The polls will start showing Labour leads by March and following Cameron’s implosion later in the year the Lib Dems will climb into the mid-20’s
10. Stuart Dickson from the Penguin Republic. Mark Senior is
the Christiano Ronaldo of PB.Com. You by contrast are the Matt Flynn
Happy New Year!
With respect, Paul….it really is way too early to write-off Labour’s chances in an election which you yourself concede is likely to be more than two years away, and I am surprised that you would do so.
This is a very different situation from 1994-97 in that the downturn in Gordon Brown’s popularity has not yet been matched by any outpouring of public enthusiasm for David Cameron. The intellectual climate has not moved in favour of the Tories, and people have very little idea what a Cameron government would do or stand for. Until either or both of these things change, the jury must remain out on the possibility of a Conservative majority.
If I am forced to make a prediction I would say that the next election has “hung Parliament” written all over it, but even within that context I still think there is a reasonable chance that Labour will be the largest party so long as Brown can maintain his reputation for economic competence, or even enhance it by dealing effectively with the the forthcoming difficulties.
22 Happy New Year Roger and congratulations on your stunning success in the prediction competition - well you weren’t last were you
See you are still hoping for a miracle though….
22. Roger - oh dear I agree with you and I have £200 riding on Hillary for Iowa.
PS. The weidest story of the New Year had to be the request by Pakistan to send officers from Scotland Yard to solve the mystery of the murder of Benazir Bhutto. If Britain hasn’t done that country enough damage in it’s short history perhaps it could send John Yates to lead it!!
Ted. Happy New Year to you! Unfortunately I can’t open excel files on my Mac so could you tell me what position I came in the competition?
10 - I’d rather read Mark Senior’s factual if somewhat biased posts than your one eyed pro nat ravings. If there’s a prize for the least self aware post on pb.c - yours must be up there.
As for the thread content - I just can’t see Hillary doing it. I think the Dems are so keen to win they’ll want to back someone who is more or less guaranteed to win in November (ie ABC). My gut feelings is that it will be an Obama v Huckerbee contest, with Obama winning (no doubt it will be a GOP victory after a McCain/Edwards battle
)
Of course, Roger (26). Yates obviously has had special training which enables him to deflect any possible criticism away from a head of government; and he is very good at it.
I wonder what the implications of this request for his services might be for identifying the front runner in Pakistan.
We are still on course for a 2010 election. Not because it is what Labour want - more the case events will not let them go any earlier. 2008 is going to be a tough year economically. No feel good factor. Brown to see it through - events not withstanding.
LD’s to be the major gainers at local elections where there is in general not much movement.
Obama to come through as Democratic candidate, by virtue of having fewer negatives than either Clinton or Edwards. Republicans to win if they choose McCain. Without the Bush hangover, the Republicans to be rejuvenated. They also have a more interesting and dynamic field and leadership contest which will help energise the activists and vote. However Huckabee is a gimme for the Democrats.
Ken to win - just.
Typical Tory lead in the opinion polls to be 5-7%. Not enough for an overall majority
Clegg to suprise many by showing a good strategic lead, even if he is a complete duffer at pmq’s.
SNP’s honeymoon to end abruptly
UK
Why don’t we listen to the resources we have here? As really solid Pb.com research work has shown repeatedly: in the current environment, if the Lib Dems can end up with anything over 50-odd seats, the chances of an NOC parliament become exceptionally likely. I think, from a betting perspective, choosing a majority for either side is less likely than NOC.
The question then is, can the Lib Dems actually avoid the squeeze? Under a new leader, and with a reasonable shot in the locals, it seems pretty unlikely that the polls will have the same flame-out in 2007 as in 2008, and Clegg can only grow in the job- though obviously next weeks PMQs will be exceptionally tough.
USA
I just can’t read this. Personally I would love President McCain, who I think is the only candidate who can deal with the crisis in US foreign policy, and whose life story gives him moral authority over Guantanamo. However, I think it may be President Obama- an OK option versus Clinton or the looney tunes amongst the other Republicans (but stupid of me to predict anything on the eve of Iowa).
International
Pakistan - a mess, with Nawaz Sharif maybe winning on 18th February, but a military coup against Musharraf can not be ruled out- and the ISI are very bad boys indeed…
If oil prices fall, then the transition in Russia could get messy, but I think problems can be delayed until 2009, nevertheless, in Neo-Czarist Russia, I am reminded of the definition of old Czarism: “autocracy, mitigated by assasination”.
In the EU I think Zapatero can hang on in Spain with the support of the regional parties, The right can come back in and the Irish referendum will be a yes.
Wild Cards?
Unrest in China, including food riots; significant changes in Iran and/or Saudi Arabia; Zuma in South Africa, but end of Mugabe in Zim; major challenge to Chavez in Venezuela; major changes in Cuba.
And you will not beleive how much a single punter can get wrong…
[31] sorry about the bold- got my html backwards..
3
You mean the 2 p tax cut that isnt a tax cut for for most people earning low salaries, in fact for low earners such as myself its a nasty tax increase because the 10 p tax band has been abolished. Typical sleight of hand by Gordo.
Britain: continuing the outbreak of amity with seanT (see several posts at the end of the last thread if you’re curious), I think it’s open: floating voters are thinking about maybe giving the Tories a try but not that convinced, and they’re a bit tired of Labour without really hating us. I agree that the London mayoral election may well be a turning point either way. If Ken wins comfortably (as I still think he will), it’ll be hard for Cameron to shake off the blame, since they simply have to get behind Boris. If Boris wins at all (never mind comfortably), it’ll suggest the Tory brand is now strong enough to carry a candidate who not even Tory posters here feel is very convincing. And it’ll get lots of coverage too.
US: Mood music from Iowa clearly suggests Obama will beat Clinton there (dunno about Edwards but I doubt it), perhaps by a surprisingly clear margin. Still think Clinton will win the nomination in the end, but as a pro-Democrat I’m gloomy about the tiny margins in theoretical poll match-ups with Guiliani and actual deficits against McCain. The odds offered against the Republicans look awfully generous to me.
Pakistan: simply looks grim. Will there really be any kind of serious election at all? I doubt it.
McCain now joint favourite with Guiliani on Betfair for the GOP nomination.
If the GOP wants to do its best to lose the election it will choose Romney (or Huckabee), if the Dems want to do the same they will choose Clinton.
Given that they usually manage to come up with the least appealing candidates (Bush vs Kerry?!) this probably means it will be Clinton vs Romney and Clinton would squeak an unpopularity contest.
It *should* be Giuliani (or McCain) vs Obama but voters do strange things.
As for Boris vs Ken, Livingstone will run the most negative campaign in living memory and, in doing so, will scare enough people into voting for him, again voters do strange things…. Lib Dem poll figures flatline through 2008.
The Irish referendum being invaded by those from the rest of Europe leads to a no vote as they get fed up with every other European country telling them what to do.
SBS @ 20 re school leaving age. You are right that Balls’s proposals are more nuanced than locking kids in classrooms till they are old enough to vote. But that is how it is being sold (which is another sign Balls does not “get” politics).
Good: increase apprenticeships. Bad: raise school leaving age. It’s not hard.
SBS @ 20 re school leaving age. You are right that Balls’s proposals are more nuanced than locking kids in classrooms till they are old enough to vote. But that is how it is being sold (which is another sign Balls does not “get” politics).
Good: increase apprenticeships. Bad: raise school leaving age. It’s not hard.
Narrow win by Mc Cain over Clinton.
SNP’s popularity and poll ratings continue to rise.
Average house prices drop by 5%.
Northern Rock is nationalised,at least one other UK bank gets into serious difficulties.
Boris beats Ken (investigation following ES allegations turns bad for Ken).
Minor improvement for Lib Dems in polls with new leader,but no progress at local elections.
Tories end 2008 with 10 point lead over Labour.
38 - The bad element is the use of compulsion, it doesn’t matter whether it’s school or apprenticeships.
My predictions- Obama versus Romney- and Obama winning pretty comfortably;
Ken staying in control of London;
Zapatero winning Spain with a working majority
Tories faltering in polls as Cameron’s vacuousness is uncovered, and Clegg starts to be noticed.
2008- overall a good year for the left in the majors, though I possibly see Prodi’s Italian coalition collapsing, and a return of Berlursconi
Post number 14- when are you releasing the book? John Grisham would be worried.
Finally happy New Year Roger- felt a bit of a chump before Xmas as Ang Lee was satellited to our cinema in Oxford, but agree with you about Mark Senior, maybe not quite the Ronaldo, more like Gary Neville- industrious, workmanlike, exceedingly competent.
O/T George McDonald Fraser RIP
26
‘ If Britain hasn’t done that country enough damage in it’s short history perhaps it could send John Yates to lead it!!’
I understand that Sir Ian Blair has already been sent as he is the senior officer and enjoys the media spotlight,Londoners are delighted to share this resource and feel much safer.
Justin Webb at the BBC reckons Obama’s people think he’s going to win big. A bit tenuous but intriguing nonetheless.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/justinwebb/2008/01/great_expectations.html
The Big Mo is with JMc now, been backing him for over a week now for the GOP, I suggest punters use the Advance graphing on Intrade to watch the trends.
Remember the US media love the person with the Big Mo and media coverage is gonna be v. important with things so close.
Hat tip to the PBer who pointed out JMc for Pres at 20/1 with Bill Hill, now Paddy Power goes 11/1 and still worth a punt. Bill Hill no prices on web and only HC by phone. Cmon!
31- cicero- not wanting to get noticed are we?
Just reading through the predictions it is funny how all our political preferences colour our judgement. Why there is money to be made on politcical betting I guess.
45 You’re right but it’s a little simplistic just to go with the Big Mo. You need to look at how it’s going to play out too. McCain needs to win in New Hampshire and he’ll find that difficult if Romney wins in Iowa.
Now I agree it’s looking like Huckabee will win in Iowa. But that’s more to do with Huck’s momentum than McCain’s. So you need to widen your view at the beginning of the primary season.
27 Roger you came 84th (10 behind me!). Why not invest £55.00 in Apple iWork 08, it lets you open excel on a Mac without having to give Microsoft any cash.
46 Not so. As a broadly Labour supporting chap I am predicting Republicans for the White House, LD’s to get most from the locals. I am suggesting Ken, but only by a whisker
Sorry - one other interesting article about Obama
http://tinyurl.com/2m44vu
Personally, I still think Edwards will win Iowa but it’s just interesting that a couple of pundits think Obama’s flying under the radar a little.
Happy New Year Tyson!. Re Mark senior. Always watchable and not averse to the odd duck and dive!
(PS.I hope you’ll be at the PB.Com gathering. There can be no better place to plan the revolution!)
25. Goupillon. Sorry!
45
Think the Big Mo will squash the big money but I am ready to lay off at any time and am checking prices every hour or so. Easy for me as I daytrade for my crust.
HC looks a decent short to me for Pres. I don’t think the US voters like the woman much, plain and simple but could be my Tory bias ermmmmmmmmmmmm.
48. Thanks Ted. I’ll look into it.
Do we know who is going to be at the Party?
In 2008:
We’ll see more sounded good in the bunker ideas from Gordon like his new tax by unit plan.
Polling as John Wheatley (@ 30) predicts but with a few silly polls either way which get all the media attention. Lib Dem polls go up a point or two then flatline.
The Tories find their support becomes more spread out and not just concentrated in the South.
At the Locals Labour will have relatively few loses, more because of how few seats they have left than popularity. It’ll be spun as a great success. The Lib Dems will do slightly better than under Ming.
It’ll be either Giuliani or McCain against Clinton, and it ends up being a GOP victory.
In NZ the Nationals get just over 50% of the vote.
And someone tries and fails to force Brown out.
on the ‘leaving age’ Frank Field has a new article which shows, once again, that someone who feels untrammelled by party identification is able to come up with something more useful, practical and hopeful.
Why we are left with Balls in the post when people like Field languish I cannot begin to understand.
He says -
“Next, the Government should reconsider its policy of locking up all children in education until they are 18. The trend to stay on is well established and should be encouraged, but over half of all young people leave school without minimum qualifications for 16-year-olds. Too many cease going to school as early as 12.
A government intent on moulding public services to individual needs, rather than forcing individuals into a one-size-fits-all service, would introduce a school leaving certificate testing basic skills.
Those people at 14 who then left school for work would have the £20,000 budget for education for all 14- to 18-year-olds held as a dowry. This would be the pupils’ own capital to use themselves when they knew what long-term jobs they would like and for which they would need serious training.
Similarly the young unemployed who are sent on job-lot training schemes bought by the Department for Work and Pensions on a regional basis should have the right to own their own training budgets.
Those companies that have pulled the wool over the Government’s eyes, gaining huge sums of taxpayers’ money but providing little or no work-based training, would soon be out of business. Young people I have spoken to simply would not countenance paying over “their” grants to them.
Next, a redrawing of the state’s education boundary is urgently required. Denmark has long run the little Danish school scheme. Parents of 300 pupils can draw the education budget for these children which would otherwise go to state schools.
Again the idea is not a panacea to a state system that still fails half of all our children. But to allow people to run their own small school, with what is in effect their own taxes, would unleash into a public service the self interest of parents that would enhance the opportunities that a good school offers.”
http://tinyurl.com/2l7hyd
Now *that* is someone who is able to think clearly about what is needed.
54 Augustus
Since it’s pay on the door no there’s no formal list but I do have an informal one which I’ll post nearer the date. It’s about 20 names.
You’re on it.
[36] “The Irish referendum being invaded by those from the rest of Europe leads to a no vote as they get fed up with every other European country telling them what to do.”
Actually, the number of Brits planning to go to the Republic and campaign for a “NO” vote is already quite large, and I suspect will be far more unwelcome than the continentals…
Back at work just time to make a few rash predictions .
Locals - Labour to make net gains less than 100 probably less than 50 in England , Plaid losses in Wales not sure how Labour perform there have not studied 2004 results in detail .
Polls LibDem support to gradually increase to be similar level in May as last May . Wild fluctuations in conference season . End of year Conservatives with around 5% lead .
US Clinton v makes no difference Clinton wins .
58 - It doesn’t matter what side they are on, the fact that it is a bunch of non-nationals arguing the toss is more likely to garner votes for the ‘no’ side.
Morning all.
Don’t know if someone posted:
“Fred Thompson may drop out”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7682.html
I don’t get this about presidnetial candidates.
Why do they like to be seen jogging?
Tell me if I’m wrong, surely sitting down at a TGI’s with a gut buster meal is more in touch with the common man and woman of America.
It is interesting to see how McCain has come in on betfair. Though if Romney wins tonight I would expect the GOP machinary to fall behing him, if it hasn’t already done so to counteract Huck in Iowa. McCain just doesn’t have the cash or the organisation to warrant this big move, and Romney has both, oodles of both.
Clinton must be hoping that Edwards is the biggest Democrat name in town tonight. She is not going to win Iowa, and a big move to Obama will be huge news.
61. The most significant thing there is what may his endorsement. If mcCain could as a a few have discussed on here take a good slice of Thompson’s support that would be very useful.
As it is, if Thompson gets ahead of McCain or within a point or two in Iowa he may well stay on, at least until SC, a state he was consdiered a possibel winner in not so long ago.
If he can’t rescue there though, that coudl be the end.
Like Cicero, I think the best bet in UK politics is for no-overall-majority at the next election.
GB will be unable to lose his ‘yesterday’s man’ odour. And it is nigh impossible for DC to produce sufficient policies of the right calibre to satisfy his critics.
RE 33 After the last budget those earning less than £18,400 per year were worse off whilst those earning more than £44,000 per annum were better off. New Labour keeping the poor, poor and the rich, rich.
64-Yes. I still think he has a very good chance, but as everything in IA, nothing is certain!
“Iowa Caucus Predictions: Romney, Obama Win; Clinton Third”
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24241
OK, here’s my US prediction: McCain wins the Republican nomination and is all set to lose the election, but dies just in time. The resulting Petraeus/Rice ticket beats Obama in a patriotic landslide.
45 Hat tip to the PBer who pointed out JMc for Pres at 20/1 with Bill Hill
Take a bow stjohn!
By the way lads, just ignore my poor typing and grammar..I never check this stuff before hitting the send.
63. i think you are right. I think McCains value for now has gone because there are doubts, one of which you raise, ie Romney in Iowa and also whether McCain can bring enough of the GOP base with him when the likes of Romney or Guliani in competition.
If he took NH and was 3/1 then it might be interesting again.
My predictions:
In London Boris will win, just. Whether this will be a good thing for the Tories will be debatable. At the locals Labour and the Lib Dems will each lose a few seats, but no big changes.
Brown will remain as leader, and remain 7-9 points behind. He will not be talking about a general election this year.
The LibDems will remain in the mid to high teens. They will however finally have tired of changing leaders every year.
Here goes…
UK:
Will be a very quiet year politically (compared to 2007 anyway). Brown will continue to flatter to deceive, with a rash of new initatives every so often but flatlining in the polls.
Economic downturn will happen but its effects won’t be immediate in terms of significant political movement
Cameron will likely do the same as Brown, few eye-catching initiatives here and there but no need for a career-saving speech at the Tory annual conference this year.
Osbourne will continue to build his profile, as will a couple of others.
Lib Dems will have a reasonably active year, but Clegg will be fighting against the political inertia tide.
Tories will make modest gains in local elections, Labour make modest losses and LDs make some games - probably in Labour heartlands.
Ken Livingstone will win the London mayorship, but not by much (saving BJ’s face). Evening Standard investigations will damage, but not kill Livingstone off. Brian Paddock will be talked up a lot beforehand but will fade away.
Only real big political shock will be a Tory by-election win in a Labour/LD marginal.
US:
Difficult to predict, but it won’t be Clinton v Giuliani. America’s mayor will play the 9/11 too much for people to be interested in it any longer.
Somebody will come out of the pack of both parties to lead - will either be Clinton v McCain (McC wins), Clinton v Romney (Clinton wins), Obama v Romney (Obama wins) or Obama v McCain (McC wins).
In short, whoever can appeal the most to moderates/independents will win, as the sense of partisanship will really wear thin on the US public.
See how wrong I get all this.
69
Yes, yes, worthy namecheck. Many thanks to ‘the saint’.
Big Mo Mc now clear leader for GOP on Intrade on bid/offer but not on last trade. Look at the volume on Mc and see Romney price going down the pan.
The real action ain’t gonna start for a while yet.
I’m betting on Romney vs Clinton.
“Get your post-caucus spin now
With this guide, you can analyze any result — before the Iowans gather”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22476967/
69. More so whoever flagged up 33-1 with blue sq just before Christmas
“LDs make some games”. Sorry, make that gaINs.
Although then again…
In 2008 Clinton to win Democratic nomination.
Republicans keep the whitehouse for another 4 years.
Clegg to surprise everyone, at least he is a more real to the cause, in that he could have been a career tory, but made the choice try and change the status quo.
A bit like Blair in the sense no one believed he was a dangerous left winger, and entered a party when it was written of by many in 83.
This contrasts with Cameron who people sense is just playing at it, and realy could be a right wing tory in power, especially on social policy.
Brown to regain some ground and respect especially for his help given to working families with children.
Labour to start to shout louder about this aspect in hard turbulent times.
Boris to win just, however could be a poisoned win in the long term.
To early to state outcome of election in 2010, but at this time believe Cameron to lead largest party , has to rely on minority votes including SNP, a further election 1 year later.
re 3 except if you’re poor when you see your income tax rate double.
On the forecast for 2008 front, does anyone see a successor emerging to eventually replace Brown? I don’t mean a hatchet-weilding conspirator, just a senior party figure being identified in the Press etc. as a natural replacement for when the time comes?
81 - not really. Think it’s more likely that there’ll be more expectation on Brown to show his “clunking fist” throughout 2008.
Right now, everyone is expecting his big, headline grabbing fightback. Methinks it’ll be the first of many this year
81. Johnson…
re 57 I suppose it depends on whether Rugby station is fixed by then, I face the prospect this weekend of a trip to London with perhaps no service on the West cost main line and also Chiltern Railways with no service because of engineering works. I suppose I could always go via Worcester!
61 Me - Happy New Year! Interesting that Thompson is building expectations so he can drop out if it’s not respectable. Further proof of his disenchantment at the political process at the moment. But I still wouldn’t rule out a surprisingly strong showing from him.
Bill Hill has his prices up and goes 12/1 Mc for Pres.
Iowa, last trade on Oba. goes 67 on Intrade! Makes me think HC is even more shortable from here, she looks vulnerable to me on the Pres mkts.
86 - 12/1 is a good price - it looks generous in the light of recent headlines but is probably fair because there’s quite a lot of risk to carry at the moment.
Everyone is full of Obama buzz this morning - about how his team are confident, that the young strategy is more about image than dependence on youth votes etc. If it’s true, there could be a big surprise later (polls are notoriously unpredictable in Iowa) but the three-way dead heat or a strong Edwards victory look more likely?
I shall only make one prediction this year and it is that Nick Palmer will lose his charity bet with me and Boris will be Mayor of London.
This prediction is grounded in the fact that I lost my last charity bet with him and so it’s my turn to win.
This is as scientific an approach as any adopted by other PBers just not as flashy
Is the consensus here that Clinton will underperform while McCain will outperform- substantially- the current expectations?
85-Ant-Nice to see you here, Happy New Year to you too!!!
Agree with you, I think we are the only ones that belive Fred can make a strong showing in IA, a third place is very much likely.
Although it will be more difficult with the “McCain surge”…
Surprised nobody’s mentioned Ron Paul in anything.
Is it because he’s seen as a fringe with plenty of talk-big-do-nothing activists or because he really hasn’t been on the radar?
If his support base isn’t an illusion, the waters on the GOP side get even more muddier
90 - indeed it will, but the whole Republican race is obviously pretty open. I think Romney and Huckabee could get lower vote shares tonight than the polls have suggested - the barrage of negative advertising reminds me of the Dean-Gephardt fight last time round - and the top four might well all be closer than many are predicting.
91: Ron Paul is a lot of noise but little else.
56. Frank Field is a legend. That’s great forward thinking and very good policy. Let’s hope the Conservatives take it up.
Right, now my predictions…
UK:
Opinion polls will wobble over the course of this year, with Tory leads varying between 0-14%. I honestly can’t call the London election. I think it’ll be knife edge. Prob Livingstone by a whisker if you had to push me, but I won’t be surprised if Boris did scrape in. However, I confidently predict the impact of the London Mayoral elections will be temporary and have no lasting effect on the national popularity of either party.
Liberals: Clegg will make no notable or lasting impact, save to stabilise the Liberals within a 15-18% box.
Locals: Am I the only one here that thinks the Tories will gain councils AND seats?? Maybe not many, but some. Anywhere Labour run a marginal council they are in danger. I’ll say, Labour to lose 5 councils and a hundred seats or so. People seem to forget how heavily voting has moved against Labour in local elections over the last 10-years. They run councils BADLY. People know this. People also know Conservatives offer better valve for money. In a tight economic situation, with increasingly expensive food/fuel, people won’t tolerate continuing increasing council tax - and they will blame the government for this.
Public “mood”: Just on this, I agree with the left-wingers on here who say there is no ‘enthusiasm’ for the Tories at present. However, I don’t recall voters jubilating in the streets in 1979 over the prospect of Mrs. Thatcher either. People turn to the Tories when times are tough, but they don’t do it with gusto - let’s be honest.
Also, I believe there is a definitive shift in the publics attitude to tax & spend. Lower tax is reasonating now in a way which it wouldn’t have done, even 3-4 years ago (if IHT cuts had been proposed in the 2003 party conference they wouldn’t have had the same effect) It’s just different taxes to what many traditional Conservative believe. The taxes which irk now are council tax and IHT. Not income tax as many Conservatives (and Brown??) are obsessed about. Higher prices are pinching too. My fuel bill is up 15% per month (prob spending about £20 more a month) my weekly supermarket bill is notably higher too (prob about £40 a month more) Many people I speak to think Income tax levels are “about right”. They can’t stand IHT or council tax though and they’re sick of their budgets being squeezed.
Fundamentally, I think the problem is that people believe the investment “returns” in improvements of public services in health & education (dont even mention transport on which Labour has done virtually nothing) are nowhere near enough to justify the huge amounts of extra money pumped into them and their patience has run out. They won’t tolerate further increases. They did when prices were cheap and credit was low. They were willing to wait and see. They won’t wait any longer. I also think Labours “The Tories will crush state education and the NHS” propaganda is beginning to wear a bit thin now. People are now willing to try something different.
Alas, despite the above, on the next GE I would have to say…
Next GE: I don’t think the Tories will win an overall majority. Do the math(s). I’d expect 6-7 seats in Wales. 3 in Scotland. Around 80-90 gains in England and Tories largest party. I’d expect a minority Con government “Canada style” with no coalition deals. I don’t think Clegg would deal with Labour. Unfortunately, I’m not confident Cameron would win a second term - yet. There are some worrying signs of latent indiscipline on the Conservative backbenches. Still I expect a 4-year Conservative goverment (of whatever sport) starting in 2010.
USA: Don’t care.
Pakistan: Worries me. It will get worse.
“Africa”: A mess. Won’t be sorted out any time soon.
There, you have it!!
91
Ron Paul is a wild card and, in my opinion, one worth noting.
The only reason why I haven’t mentioned him is that his is primarily an internet campaign - albeit a noisy one - and that didn’t translate into caucus night votes for Dean last time.
Plus Paul’s polling is very low in Iowa and nationally - much lower than the number that Dean outperformed. He’s definitely on the radar though - raised a cool $20m in Q4 and a lot of articles and posts about him. He’s the big unknown.
In a way I wouldn’t be overly surprised by a strong Paul performance(I certainly think he’s got a good chance of overtaking Giuliani) but I think he’ll probably be crowded out of the top of the field. He’s got the money to get through to New Hampshire and that’s where I’d expect any big Paul push to materialise (though I remain sceptical in general)
89 Is the consensus here that Clinton will underperform while McCain will outperform- substantially …?
Yes, but let’s not forget that the probability remains that Hillary will be the next President and J McC will not!
59 - Mark Senior predicting Labour gains in the locals??!? Get onto betfair and bet heavily on the reverse!! Labour are defending seats won by the Tories under Michael Howard on the same day the Tories were decimated at the Euro elections. There is much more room for Conservative gains this year, particularly in the North.
Clinton to win in the US race?? Doubt it… she inspires huge hatred from Republicans and many moderates and this is the one thing which could re-unite the centre with the centre-right in America. If Clinton wins the Democrat primaries the Republicans will be back in the White House.
Tories only 5% ahead?? You gotta be kidding, right? Double digit lead with the Limp Dems struggling to get beyond 15%.
This will be the year where a Tory win at the next election becomes an anticipated event, rather than a hoped for occurence by people like me. The polls will settle into a 10-15% lead by the Conference season and British politics will be at the same place as it was in 1994; waiting for the inevitable.
92-Both races are going to be very close, and probably, as you said, Romney and Huckabee will get a lower share of votes than most are expecting. But one thing we have to ask, does Fred has the organization to get supporters out?
93/95 - I get the feeling with Paul that he could bomb badly. With these internet grass-root movements, they do appear to have an inflated sense of worth and ability to do anything.
Of course, I could be proved wrong and he could be a sleeper candidate. Apparently, many Paul activists use cellphones instead of landlines, which aren’t picked up in polling.
94- Casino Royale-very good post
Last Zogby daily tracker for Iowa is a tie between Clinton-Obama, with Edwards 2 points behind - the previous three had Clinton +4. Of course, polling in Iowa is notoriously useless, but the markets seem to be going with the momentum, and especially that the Des Moines Register gives Obama big leads.
On the Republican side Huckabee still has narrow leads, but my guess would be Romney’s Iowa operation will be better funded, better organised and more effective. Given the importance of getting people to the polls, this could be critical on the day if the situation is genuinely close at present. However, again the DMR has a much larger Huckabee lead than anyone else at +6.
Interesting to see how Giuliani’s vote is collapsing in these two states, and whether this will be replicated on polling day. If it is, McCain will win NH - he’s clearly been the principle beneficiary from those switchers.
ps a quick cautionary note: be wary of using betfair as a guide to these elections. The liquidity simply isn’t there for it to be reliable.
McCain at 6/1 to win the South Carolina Primary with Unibet is now good value (I lumped on at 9/1 a few days back which pushed it down), as he has to take this state to win the nomination as it’s the first one with no independents, and was where he lost to Bush in 2000. Also you get paid sooner!
Personally I think the GOP still have big issues with him, and I liked someones earlier description of him as the “Ken Clake” of the party, and I would expect a big push by the right wingers to get behind a stop McCain candidate in Florida, even Rudy!
My US prediction;after initally dropping Iowa,Clinto waltzs the nomination for the Democratic Party:the Republican race takes much longer,and whoever gets it(Romney or Huckabee) is hamstrung by constant Democratic cries of ‘After 8 years of Bush,WHO wants the Republicans?’ Outcome;roughly 53-54 % vote Democratic,the usual 1% for the Ralph Nader/other 3rd candidate,and the remaining 45-46% vote Republican.Although not a huge shift in votes from 2004,when Bush beat Kerry 51%-48%,Ohio,only Bush by 2%,Florida,only Bush in 2004 by 5%,and a good few other states would tip Democratic,so Hilary Clinton should score 320-350 in the electoral college-GO ON GIRL,I’M ROOTING FOR YOU!!!!!!!
I think that events, through January and February at least, will continue to damage brown seriously, perhaps beyond any hope of repair. There’s still the result of the police enquiry to come (though one charge (against Watt) seems certain), and the possible strikes in January at the airports (two now rather than three) wouldn’t be helpful for him.
More importantly than either (unless Brown gets charged:p) is Northern Rock, and the general economic situation including fuel prices. If the Rock folded the minimum cost to the taxpayer would be around £10bn of depositor guarantees, with a maximum exposure of £60-70bn (given that the loan and guarantees keep increasing) though I’d be staggered if we had to pay that much.
In 2007 it seemed unlikely that Virgin would be able to get through a successful bid, as senior shareholders SRM Global and RAB Capital vehemently oppose them, they lack a banking licence and one of their three financial backers (Deutsche Bank) seemed to be getting cold feet. That just leaves Olivant/Luqman Arnold, who reportedly were getting hacked off at the Treasury over lack of information and who may also (due, ironically, to the credit crunch) be having difficulty raising funds.
It’s a sad fact, but it may turn out to have been a better financial move to let the bank die and give each employee a million pound payoff. If the Rock goes seriously belly up Brown and Labour are finished for the next election, not to mention the ensuing economic implications. Nationalising the bank is only a stopgap measure, and would not be healthy for the government books at the budget, and there’s no guarantee it could be sold for a profit, or even without substantial loss.
Oh, and McCain is now the favourite at intrade for the nomination. He’s 26.5, Giuliani 25.9, Romney 21.3, Huckabee 11.2. Not too much movement here, just a slight drift for Giuliani and Romney as McCain rises.
On the other side it’s Clinton 63, Obama 29, Edwards 9. Again little movement over the last week, other than a slight edging towards Obama as his Iowa polling looks promising.
Two polls out in NH, both showing McCain and Clinton leading:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Casino Royale @ 94 re “tax and spend”, a term which has me reaching for my revolver. Uncritically adopted by right wing hacks, tax and spend means something in the United States where many voters are suspicious of the Federal government. Not so in Britain, where we may dislike tax but we love spend!
That is why Osborne has promised to match Labour. We think the government should spend more on health, education and lamp posts.
Look at supposedly radical, right wing ideas like education vouchers: not radical at all! It is based on the government spending money on education, with parents influencing the recipients of central funds. It does not say: we in Whitehall shall take less of your income, and you can buy your child’s schooling. It says: the government will collect tax and pay for schools and you parents, the little people, can have some small influence over which schools get how much in top-up funds from that nice Mr Osborne.
Any British analyst who talks of “tax and spend” has spent too long watching the American news programmes on Sky.
105 I think Huckabee’s overvalued at 11.
Me@106 The most interesting recent trend in NH - up to yesterday - has been Edwards’ mini-surge though. It suggests that he might be able to tranfer some momentum from Iowa to NH, especially with his populist economic message.
107 I agree, tax and spend does sound a little dated these days - I far prefer the term tax and waste which is actually a far more accurate assessment of this Government’s approach over recent years.
97. The European Elections were bad for the Tories, but only because so many Tories (and some Labour and Lib Dems) voted UKIP. The local election results in 2004 were pretty good for the Conservatives. According to R & T, the projected national vote shares in 2004 were Con. 37%, Lib Dem 27%, Lab 26% (slightly different from the figures I’ve previously given, which were the BBC’s).
In all likelihood, the Tories will poll 40%+ in May, with Labour and the Lib Dems in the mid-twenties (I’d expect Labour to drop a bit below 26%, as the third year is usually the worst year for an incumbent government in local electoral terms).
So a decent gain for the Tories? Sadly not, because so few seats are being contested. A couple of English authorities have all out elections, several are electing half, but the Metropolitan Boroughs, and most Districts that have elections, are just electing one third. Only c.2,000 or so seats are being contested, compared to 12,000 this May. Any Conservative net gain is likely to bein the region of 50-75 seats. We could pick up Bury, perhaps move to biggest party status in Bolton, win a majority in North Tyneside (but Labour retain the Mayoralty), keep chipping away in places like Salford, Sunderland, and Wakefield, and pick up the odd council here or there, but the difference will be pretty marginal.
Wales has all out council elections, but the only realistic chance of a Conservative gain is Vale of Glamorgan.
Forgot the predictions, for what they’re worth: Obama wins Iowa, Clinton wins NH and then runs away with it. On the Republican side Romney wins IA, McCain wins NH, but then fails to build on his momentum and his vote transfers to Giuliani, who goes on to win Florida and the nomination.
I think this will be the big story of 2008 > http://tinyurl.com/2y3ht9…. I have already started panic buying/drinking
109
Spot on!
108-Ant-Yes, he gained 4 or 5% since October. If he wins(which I believe he can), he could fight for the second place in NH, and this leave me to one question, again, if he’s second, who will be third?Of course we have to wait for the IA result, but wouldn’t this be amazing?
I predict:
Cameron will win in 2010, by a narrow margin but enough to govern. Say 20-30 seats.
Labour will then implode as the internal tensions become too much. David Miliband will actually try to bite Gordon Brown in the goolies, in the House of Commons, and have to be wrestled away by Ruth Kelly.
The Lib Dems will go nowhere quite fast. Clegg is a nice but vacuous euromuppet.
The Scots Nats will prosper but paradoxically support for independence will fall as people think Why Bother.
The economy will gently decline, but then recover. My two year old daughter will still eat three entire bananas a day. ColinW will be unmasked as Hugo Chavez.
Clinton will take the Dem nomination but will lose the presidency when she turns out to be a juicer.
Chin chin.
77 I take responsibility for that one
71 Yokel. I’m afraid that if and when McCain wins in NH, you will not see 3/1 again.
116 Yes, I know Jan. That’s why you’re allowed in half price to the PB Party.
Further prediction
Ruth Kelly gets the John McCain award for political comeback of the year. She has handled two potentially nasty government cock ups well. Firstly she tok the flack from an Yvette Cooper cock up (HIPS I think). On the lost data issue she properly researched the situation and then gave the facts.
Good batting on a tricky wicket gets you credits with the bosses.
I have always felt that some female politicians get despised for their voice. Kelly, Widdecombe being two of them.
116. Yes Jan deserves oodles of credit for identifying the value in McCain at 33/1 for the Presidency 2 weeks ago. Great spot and tip!!.
I simply jumped on the bandwagon, followed the market and the polls and highlighted William Hill’s 20/1 stand out price on McCain for the Presidency, which was still available 5 days ago.
119. And Patricia Hewitt being another.
114 indeed it would!
116 - Jan - as the resident expert on McCain, do you buy into the idea that NH is McCain v Obama to actually get Independents to their respective primary? If so, do you think Obama winning Iowa gives him a momentum that hurts McCain’s chances in NH?
StJohn and I had a chat about it on yesterday’s thread (122,137,148,158) - we couldn’t agree on how Iowa will affect the choice of Independents in NH as to which primary the vote in.
120 Yeah, well don’t overegg it, StJohn or he’ll want to get in free.
Btw, Hillary’s price drifting today. Now out to 1.57 and not much available to match above that price.
This new poll might keep the markets moving in Obama’s favour:
http://tinyurl.com/39pq3r
I also wonder if it’ll skew turnout at all.
115 Sean - pleased to hear you are putting food on the table for your daughter, but trust you didn’t do a Macca and lavish £15k’s worth of Christmas presents for her on the back of your new highly lucreative book deal - no more of that nice Mr Brown’s tax credits for you then.
Hillary a juicer? - innocent old me isn’t sure what this means, hope it isn’t rude!
Some interesting thoughts so far. To join the fun -
In the UK, the Conservatives to retain a fairly healthy lead throughout the year, varying between a low of 4% and a peak of 14%, but with all parties finishing the year close to where they started. This produces an expectation of a 2010 election. Some talk of Brown standing down / being replaced, but no serious effort to make it happen, still less Gordon actually leaving No10 - he’s there until the election.
2008 to be the first year since 2004 when no party changed leaders (is it something about leap years?). The Lib Dems to perform beter and be more or less neutral in the May elections (more Tory gains and Labour losses, but on a small scale).
Livingstone to win the London Mayorality on transfers 51-49 (Boris to win the first round).
In the US, Obama to win the nomination after Clinton goes too negative in advance of Super Tuesday and alienates voters (though I think she still holds a winning hand if she plays it right). His (or her) opponent in Novenmber to be Mitt Romney, after a long battle lasting until the Spring before he ties up the nomination. Bloomberg decides not to run. In the election, Obama wins comfortably.
Elsewhere, oil to drop to $60 in the light of increased production and a global slowdown, Putin’s star to begin to fade in Russia despite becoming PM, the PPP to win the elections in Pakistan when they’re eventually held but no Bhutto family figure to take office, preferring to play the Sonia Ghandi role.
Finally, the Beijing Olympics to go down as the most smog-ridden since Los Angeles, with journalists around the world critical of excessive monitoring by Chinese officials.
121 No, with Patricia Hewitt it was actual content & her manner of argument, though I concede her voice didn’t help. Kelly has obviously had some external training/assistance - her presentation much improved and work clothes/hairstyle also.
Predictions for 2008
UK
Labour - It’s not going to get much better. The news agenda is going to be dominated by bad news and how the government is dealing with it. Gordon Brown isn’t well liked enough and has been at the top too long to give people the confidence that he is dealing with it well. Leadership speculation which is currently at a trickle will build and by the end of 2008 the possible successors to Brown will be clear. Most likely Balls, Milliband and Denham.
Conservatives - Will maintain their lead and embark on a year of solid opposition. Nothing much will change in approach. As the party hear more from Sayeeda Warsi she will become a favourite of both Party members and the media.
Lib Dems - Clegg will do ok but dissapoint because of the high expectations - although better than Ming the political climate favours the main parties and Clegg a relative unknown will be unable to resist the squeeze. Vince Cable will build his profile further replacing Kennedy as Lib Dem of choice for TV producers.
London - The Mayoral race will be exciting and will dominate the London news agenda. Boris or Ken could win. Labour will run a very negative campagin against Boris pretending he’s a racist. This will backfire as people will mostly ig