Iowa results & reaction - live thread
January 4th, 2008Huckabee has been called winner of GOP caucus
Networks call Democrat contest for Obama
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Double Carpet
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I’m starting to suspect Edwards at 5 wasn’t the value I thought it was.
CNN calls it for Obama
Fox just called Iowa for Obama
CNN call it for Obama
CNN calls it for Obama!
Obama is still climbing. Its going to end 37, 30, 29. Quite a strong win.
5% lead not bad…
Down to 0.2% between Hillary and Edwards!
Peter the Punter calls it for Obama.
1 Suggestion on Fox that Edwards will be 3rd, and that Edwards campaign off the record have said that if they weren’t 1 or 2 they are basically done.
Also claiming that Hillary is going to go after Obama bigstyle in New Hampshire
It’s all about margins now!… Obama really needs to now have a clear win and for Clinton to finish third… c’mon Barack!
Edwards/Clinton still essentially a tie.
Who will drop out tonight?
For the Dems Richardson probably stays in by coming 4th, even with a meagre 1.7% delegates. Joe Biden is going to struggle to continue in fifth at just 1%. Dodd is surely out, Kucinich & Gravel have both got no delegates whatsoever so far though both should by rights have quit ages ago and given the nature of Kucinich’s campaign I wouldn;t expect him to quit.
For the GOP Thompson has prob done enough to stay in the race coming third, Paul has done OK, can;t see any except Hunter dropping out.
On to New Hampshire!
Hilary only 0.2% behind Edwards.
If she can beat Edwards and only lose to Obama by 5% how damaging is that? It wouldn’t be that conclusive.
Edwards may be finished. Thompson should be finished, what is the point of his campaign now?
Romney looks to be badly damaged by this - it was always possibly he would lose, but he seems to have been clobbered. This is the best result for Giuliani, because Huckabee simply isn’t a serious candidate nationally. INtrade now has McCain at 30 (up from 25ish a today), Giuliani at 24ish, Huckabee at 16, Romney collapsed to 13.
Oh, Iowa called for Obama. Clinton seems to be sneaking up and might just catch Edwards for 2nd. Edwards is dead.
10 - “Also claiming that Hillary is going to go after Obama bigstyle in New Hampshire”
Bring it on… negative campaigning is going to go down like a lead balloon in New Hampshire. What will be interesting is to see how much of a bounce a win in IA gives Obama in NH, NV and SC (as it did in ‘04 for Kerry).
How did Paul fare?
12 Think Fox reported Tancredo had dropped out earlier.
Romney is going to have to roll with this punch. I don’t think that is one of his qualities.
17 - IIRC he’s in and around 3rd with Thompson and McCain.
13% for McCain looks strong considering he hasn’t campaigned or advertised in the state and only got 5% in 2000 in Iowa
Think I saw Paul 10%. Thompson is 14%, McCain 13%.
Giuliani 6th. That’s got to sting, regardless of how little you campaign.
20 — Thanks Ben do you have the figure? 10%. That’s rather good news for him going into NH where he should poll stronger.
After 82% precincts, Hilary now 0.3% behind Edwards.
Can she catch him?
Looks like Hillary is 3rd.
Fact is though, Hillary needs to say “change”…but also point out that Obama is a spin-doctor, effectively like Cameron and Blair.
When you got 3 brilliant candidates you shouldn’t choose the spin doctor..imo.
24- Mike L. I don’t think whether Edwards is 2nd or Hillary by around a tenth of a percent really matters. It just goes to show that Penn’s desire not to run in Iowa back in may was a very sensible, defensive tactic.
Is there actually supposed to be anything good about “Mitt”? He seems a bit rubbish generally.
That guy who used to be on Newsround is doing a Nick Robinson impression on News 24.
26 I don’t think it matters to Hillary. I think it matters a lot to Edwards
Thanks to Paul for getting the new thread up. I’ve had trouble getting in but I’ve now slimmed down the site to ease the pressure on the server.
What a fantastic election.
Fairly good result for McCain and Giuliani. My gut instinct is that Clinton will likely overcome this setback. New Hampshire still unclear but as Edwards should expect to win South Carolina, his second place tonight shouldn’t be to damaging if he combines it with a similar or better performance in New Hampshire. The big question is will the wins for Huckabee and Obama scare their respective parties’ moderates behind the fronrunners?
29 Another brilliant nite on PB, Mike.
How was Dublin?
Paul M at 26. I think Edwards is finished regardless. He doesn’t have the money and was staking everything on his strong showing in Iowa in 04. Two horse race now. That’s what the media has wanted on the dem side anyway for some time now.
results: http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/state.shtml?state=IA
Yay Obama. Huge preference for him in young voters. I always knew I was 26 years old, mentally.
Hilary is too shrewish and divisive, bless her.
Meanwhile, Americans will never elect a Mormon prez. Huckabee is a bit too righteous. McCain or Giuliani versus Obama in the election? With Obama to win.
Time to buy Clinton? I think she will come back strong. This result has been good for her given that she’s been behind in the polls and its not a landslide.
I think NH will be close with Obama winning. But when the message is not so “focused” on multi-state I think Clinton will win with the money backing and firm hardcore support she has.
Ron Paul is dead. Perhaps its a good thing.
Looks like it’s back to how it was a while back: McCain vs Giuliani, and Clinton vs Obama.
I think that if Fred maitains his third place then he will not drop out, strong showing! Rudy on CNN!
Jaz at 35. Why is Ron Paul already dead? He got 10% and Iowa is not a strong state for him.
32 Yes, I agree James - two horse race on the Democrat side now. Hillary is still favaorite but no more than a 4/5 shot.
Republican race still wide open but a bad nite for Romney and good for McCain and Guiliani. Obviously very good for Huckabee too but he’s not a realistic long term prospect.
Thompson can resume the day job.
Romney doing fine in many of the counties - too early for him to panic.
I hope Edwards hangs around - I think he’d continue to give Hillary a run for her money.
Time to bet on Giuliani I think
39 — Peter I agree. Thompson may been good at playing a DA but he’s terrible at playing a Presidential candidate, and wasn’t much good at playing a senator either.
38. Paul has always been dead. There’s too much opposition to him within the GOP. Basically everyone who didn’t vote for him in Iowa would never vote for him.
39. I’m not sure Hilary is favourite now. Obama has shown he can perform - and he has that huge surge of young voter support.
He has that slight air of Jack Kennedy. America wants, I sense, a big change - a cleansing of the stables after Iraq.
Clinton can’t provide that.
Will Hunter, Biden, Dodd, and Gravel drop out? Kucinich I assume will stick withit. ALiens know why.
Three Dems, all get over 30% - amazing.
Edwards on 30.09% - if he gets over 30%, I get my £20 paid about by Ladbrokes at 7/1 (Hat-tip to Caveman!!)
Can I just say I am enjoying the company on this site at a time when most of you lot are asleep (that’s what you mean by ‘uncle’, isn’t it PtP? )
30.05% - damn it!
He’s not mainstream, when voting becomes more widespread he needs big exposure, he has some $$$, but his national polling is low.
I can’t see him getting anywhere above 15% nationally (Ron Paul).
Best to go for McCain.
46 —- Morus you may not win that bet. He’s now 30.05 and dropping slowly.
As Democratic primaries are entirely proportional, this should allow Edwards to carry on and keep picking up 15% here, 20% there.. he’s not going to let it drop after spending so many years going for this. Could end up in situation where Clinton and Obama need his delegates to be sure of getting nominated at Denver in August? Big implications for VP market!
47-”Can I just say I am enjoying the company on this site at a time when most of you lot are asleep”
LOL!I feel the same way!
38: Actually, 10% is exactly what the Zogby daily tracker said for Paul.
A quick look says that poll looks to have been quite accurate. However, the Des Moines Register lived up to its reputation for accurate polling, particularly on the Dem side.
35, 43 - Ron Paul surely can’t quit immediately after raising a $20 million war chest mostly from small, individual donations. He’s in the race for a long time yet.
49 — Jaz. I agree its best to go for McCain. But Paul getting 15% nationally is a big deal for the internal movings within the GOP. Nobody thinks he can seriously win.
an interesting Iowa Result from 1992
Tom Harkin 76 %
Paul Tsongas 4%
Bill Clinton 3%
two Clinton’s 3rd in Iowa
54 — Ukip insider — I utterly concur
29
You might want to look at caching to cope with election night loads.
http://www.devlounge.net/articles/wordpress-caching-overview
Live feed on MSNBC’s site… excellent (Chris Mathews the best commentary you’ll get tonight).
30.03% - Edwards is killing me…
30.02% now…
30.02%
30.00% …. good luck
60 Morus I feel your pain. But luckily I hedged!
Good CNN results page http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA
Morus, I think you may be finished.
Looks like Hillary 3rd.
0.4% behind Edwards after 92% precincts.
Looking at the polls, none of them predicted 37% for Obama,I think the best he got was 35%(Newsweek,) with 29% for Clinton and 18% for Edwards…
47 It certainly is, Alexander, and I shall be off to Bo Peep myself in a minute.
You well?
Your bloody cricket just keeps getting better. How do they do it. India’s a pretty decent side. You’re making them look moderate.
45 Biden apparently staying in the race:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080103/NEWS09/80103046
Can’t see why though!
You have a chance Morus - apparently University of Iowa has yet to report.
Please remember rej4sl that Harkin was the very popular incumbent governor of Iowa in 1992 and all other candidates almost completely ignored it.
29.97%, but Iowa City and Johnson County outstanding (not Hillary country), so maybe hope yet …
If Clinton ends up third, that slightly sours Huck’s victory, doesn’t it? Surely he’d have absolutely no chance against Obama in a general election.
Interesting graphic on CNN - Obama won out around Sioux City; this is significant. If you got in on him early I would be in no rush to lay…
Fascinating fact on CNN - Obama beat Clinton EVEN IN THE FEMALE VOTE.
Is the Sioux City result that significant. How conservative are the democrat caucus goers there? The conservative western counties appear to have gone Hillary.
If Obama won out there he has to have carried a significant proportion of the 20% of Dem caucusers who are independents.
16: “What will be interesting is to see how much of a bounce a win in IA gives Obama in NH, NV and SC (as it did in ‘04 for Kerry).”
I’d have thought it would be bigger. Hillary’s biggest asset, and Obama’s biggest liablity, was that she was supposed to be a winner, and he wasn’t. This theory has now been empirically disproven.
BTW, as someone was saying on the other thread, that Iowa results page is a great piece of work. They’re using AJAX to only re-fetch data they need, and serving the thing off Amazon S3 so they can scale up to as many hits the worldwide internet can throw at them and only have to pay for the bandwidth they actually use.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/index_live.html
Might be nice to have some of this at pb.com - especially AJAX comments so that you can keep up with the discussion without repeatedly hitting refresh pulling the whole page again from Mike’s poor overworked web server.
Borders South Dakota and Nebraska, so pretty damn conservative. If Obama is winning there, he looks good for November.
Still putting my faith in University of Iowa -
COME ON YOU HAWKEYES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
75 SeanT
I share your enthusiasm for Obama but he still has plenty to do. You are looking at the situation like a voter; I have to look at it like a punter.
He simply *had* to win Iowa, which he has done (and well). He also *has* to win New Hampshire. Even then he’s no more than an even money shot because there follows a string of States where Hillary is a shoo-in.
That’s why I say Hillary is about a 4/5 shot now - still the likeliest winner, but a bit less likely than when the evening started.
79 LOL! I had that bet too, Morus, but I’m not waiting up to see if he crawls over the line. I shall rest peacefully, counting my notional profits from Obama and McCain.
Been a good evening for the PtP bank balance.
Nite all. (And big thanks to Paul and Mike.)
Hillary Clinton… LOL!
Ditto Mit Romney… establishment on both sides loses, all good!
Hillary is certainly coming third.
Good result for McCain. He now has a very good chance of winning in NH, although he will have to fight harder for the independent vote….
Edwards on CNN. Let the spin begin!
Intrade: Clinton 53, Obama 40, Edwards 2.
Next NH polls will be interesting.
Edwards staying in the race…
It looks as though Obama might be 8 clear points ahead of Hillary. That’s a masssive margin.
Your sobriety is bracing. You are quite right, of course. Logically speaking.
But I’m not approaching this as a voter (I’m a Brit!) - I’m approaching it as a novelist.
Obama has the narrative. The black JFK. The Democrat of Muslim ancestry. The guy who can heal the wounds of Iraq.
Americans do not like being reviled around the world; I sense they’ve had enough of it. I sense they are quietly ashamed of Iraq, even if they still believe they did it for the right reasons.
Obama is the one guy who can, maybe, fix all this, who can provide real and serious change. Clinton just can’t.
I’d say it was evens!
89. PS that comment was for PtP at 80…
How could these monsters vote for someone who wanted to be president in kindergarten?
I quite liked Edwards until I heard him banging on about how much he loved his family just now.
88 I posted the other day that third place and 8% off the pace was the maximum that she could cope with, without it hurting her NH result. Had it been any worse, I think she would be in trouble.
80 Democrat precints left - 29.96%
McCain just gone 3rd ahead of Thompson (per Fox)
93 — that’s great news.
92. On rounding it could well end up 9% - ie 38,30,29.
91. Yeah. Terrible speech by Edwards. Weird accent as well. Sort of poncey Southern with a hint of Boston.
Goodbye John Edwards.
88. Double Kerry’s margin over Edwards in 2004. It’s approaching Bush over Forbes in 2000.
Why does Matt Fry keep describing Obama as “literally African-American”?
His father was Kenyan.
98 - Coz it’s the BBC talking about US politics, British pundits/reporters often seem a little perplexed by the whole thing.
Unfortunately, they set the limits as 25.00-29.99%, and 30-34.99%!
It is at 29.90% with 70 precincts remaining. Iowa results page that we are so please with is reporting ‘delegates’ though, not votes, so may be some variance there … I hope…
ABC news now has Obama nine points ahead of Hillary
Woe, this is pretty much a rout compared to predictions, Obama needs to convert this into popularity in those super duper Tuesday states and that remains his problem though.
Looks like Romney’s dead in the water now and Huckabee is only a temporary haven so Giuliani and especially McCain will be pleased. While it may be the end for Thompson, Paul looks as though he’s going to be a thorn in the side of the other GOP candidates for a while and that can only be good for debate.
99. Doesn’t make his African-Americanness more literal than anyone else’s, though, does it?
100. Yeah, I’ve been getting that impression.
96 — Sean, he can’t win but he will hang on in after fighting so hard praying for a brokered convention where he can cut some sort of deal.
Yesterday a woman on BBC News 24 said that if Clllinton comes 3rd in Iowa, the Democrats will “not be able to dump her fast enough” and would have an excellent excuse to do so.
Hillary now!
103 - Cant see how Obama doesnt ride a 9piont win in IA into wins in NH and from there SC… from there Super Tuesday is Clinton’s last chance and that could well be comming after a sucession of defeats…
test
Ah, now I understand. my last two messages didn’t appear because they contained the name of a certain card game!
108 - Because Hillary managed expectations well. Iowa doesn’t ever vote for women, Hillary leads New Hampshire polls, and has just as much money, as is prepared to scrap for it. If anything, the danger was if she came too close she would get complacent.
This is so far from being over …
“Incredible experience”? Losing? That’s what she meant, right?
Hillary = America’s Gordon
Better speech by Hilary than Edwards. Not sure having Bill there is such a good idea though.
I think that’s a bit unfair mike.
Who are these people who feel animated enough to chant “Hillary, Hillary”? Are they hired, or do they just pump that in over the PA?
105. Edwards will hang on until Super Duper Tuesday and then drop out when significant wins fail to materialize; he simply doesn’t have the money to carry on otherwise. I also get the impression that brokered conventions are things of the past. Delegates will fall in behind the leading candidate - particularly on the Dem side - as to do otherwise would be too redolent of 2000…
Rullko, don’t you think it sounds lacklustre and pathetic. “So ready to campaign, so ready to lead”. A bit hollow.
re 115. Unfair to whom - Hillary or Gordon?
She’s waffling on now. Cliches piled on cliches.
Hillary
She’s not an attractive candidate, is she? Still, I’ll stick with my predictions (Obama IA, Clinton NH and then plain sailing).
Only good news out of tonight imo: Obama validates a new model for (national) black politicians in the US, Romney crashes and burns, and McCain benefits as a result.
Brown shies away from conflict and adversity - Clinton relishes it. New Hampshire is her last shot at the presidency, and she has about $30m to throw at it. She is not going to go to pieces now.
Sorry 121 was address to Mike at 119
The antiwar stuff don’t work. She voted for it. Tsk.
Romney now 4th favourite on Betfair, behind Huckabee.
OK, did I miss something? Didn’t she vote for the Iraq war? So how can she say that “people must understand that force must be a last resort, not the first one”?
111 - Not really, she’s come third 10 points behind Obama! (and thats how CNN and MSNBC are spinning it). There is no way of getting round that, NH and then SC are far better territory for Obama (lots of Independents in NH, lots of African-American voters in SC)… things will only get tougher for Clinton.
I think SeanT’s right about the narrative - and there’s another angle to this: At the risk of over-extrapolating from a slightly wierd election, it validates his campaign’s organisational techniques.
The Obama campaign has raised a lot of money nationwide, much of it over the internet, from small donations. This is the sort of thing that last time people thought would give Dean a huge advantage last time, until he spectularly flamed out in Iowa. But it’s looking like the Obama team has found the right formula for connecting internet support with actual votes on the ground. They will now be able to tap their support base for even more money, and they’ve proved that they know how to turn money into actual votes.
I would say he now has a slightly better chance of winning the nomination than Hillary.
it should read “the last…”
What is it about her? It’s just seems all so shallow, so stuck on.
118. I thought Edwards’ speech was a lot better than Clinton’s, actually, despite the yawn-inducing stuff about how wonderful his ancestors were.
Chris Dodd drops out
Dodd drops out - CNN
Two key stats emerging: Democrats outnumbered Republicans more than 2 to 1 in caucus goers - that clearly has implications for November because it shows where the energy and impetus for change is: Iowa leans blue in the General Election;
Second - and this is stunning - Obama won the backing of more women than Clinton.
Changing the subject, anyone know what happened in the Welwyn Hatfield (?) by-election yesterday?
What a shame Bill can’t run again. Surely he’d walk it (assuming no health problems).
The rule should be max 2 terms in a row.
132 — Rullko, Edwards does emote. He gets to the people behind the issues. Hillary uses impersonal terms. That’s not saying I like Edwards. He comes across as a phony and he is more concerned with creating trouble with his populism that ending it.
Chuck Norris has frighteningly white teeth
It’s a bit hard to take Huck seriously when he’s got Chuck Norris standing right behind him.
South Carolina is interesting, as it will put to the test Obama’s claim that what he needed to do to secure the black vote was to show them that he could win. What happens to the black will be a significant indicator of whether he was right about that.
128 - 8% isn’t 10%, and the media (who are more friendly towards/scared of the Clintons than is acknowledged) could equally spin it as practically joint-second with Edwards.
Finely balanced, but Iowa does not decide the Dem contest outright.
138 - True and a strangley imaculate beard…
138. lol. True. There’s also a quite hot chick between Chuck and Huck.
Who also has reflective teeth
Wow - Huckabee’s speech is brilliant.
Huckabee’s speech better than both Clinton’s and Edwards’.
141 - “Iowa does not decide the Dem contest outright.”
No, but goes one hell of a long way toward doing so… have a listen to Mathews take on it on MSNBC, it’s pretty damning for Clinton.
145 - Yep. Scarily so.
It is the most impressive, almost presidential of the three on CNN so far. (I can’t believe I just said that of Huckabee)
The guy can do “magic”, I’m serious!
Norris and the blonde just performed a subtle swap around. Bizarre.
Huckabee has a folksy charm, like Dubya did. Hmmm. Maybe he has a chance.
I can believe it. *cough cough* I have been tipping him for over a year now…
Romney sounds like he’s on meth.
Preacherman! Huckabee is good.
152 — SeanT, that’s what I’m worried about. We are all sitting here thinking that they just couldn’t. He could do. He is a true “compassionate conservative”. He comes across as much less hateful and scary than other republicans
154 - the guy behind him is far more worrying… Mit looks positivley sedate by comparison.
Better than Dan Ashcroft, for sure. Thompson now above McCain again. Shame.
re 156. I agree James. I think that people are underestimating Huckabee.
What channel is romney on?
I think Huckabee could cause Guiliani a lot of problems if he turns his attack adds onto him after wiping out Romney. I think he’ll leave McCain alone for now, and visa versa.
Is McCain really the frontrunner? You wouldn’t get that impression from the (admittedly crap) coverage of the primaries in the UK press.
With 97% of precincts reporting ABC News now have it at Obama 38%: Edwards 30%: Clinton 29%
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/state?state=IA
159 - When you realise whae he stands for it’s easy to want to dismiss him. The problem is that I felt exactly the same about Bush and he got elected. The US electorate works on different rules - anti-gay policies, anti-abortion position, pro-creationist, Huckabee ticks all the boxes and, unlike in the UK, there are a significant number of people who like that sort of thing.
156. I would have voted for Dubya in 2000 and 2004, if I were American. I would maybe have regretted it, but I would have voted for him. Those supercilious liberal snobs - Gore and Kerry - just got up my nose. Telling the little people how awful they are, voting for the nasty Republican..
Ugh.
Democrats need to learn from those defeats. Establishment liberal-lefties don’t cut it. Barack Obama is different.
Mike, you don’t have to go to broadcaster sites - the actual results, updated every 30 seconds are at:
http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/
Rullko, he came top of a pew poll recently http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
ABC are also misreporting the Republican figures - McCain has just snatched third from Fred Thompson, at least according to the Washington Post.
165 — Sean, although I certainly wouldn’t have voted for Dubya I can see how many did. Both Gore, now deified, and Kerry were crap candidates. Gore never really, and I mean really, wanted it and Kerry managed to get out debated by Bush.
168 - Adam. Both McCain and Thompson are increadibly close with the man from Tennessee slightly on top.
Since when have they been calling it “Super Duper Tuesday” instead of “Super Tuesday”? What is the difference in terms of numbers or timing or whatever this time compared with 4 or 8 or 12 or 16 years ago?
168 - CSPAN just put them both on 13%, but Fred with about 300 more votes.
Gore never really wanted it? The man had been groomed from the very day and hour he was born to be POTUS. Maybe he didn’t really want it (which I don’t believe), but he did believe it was his destiny.
Third place, and 14% (up from 5% in 2000) is a phenominal result for McCain in Iowa. He is against ethanol subsidies, and didn’t campaign, yet still came within 10% of 2nd place. 10% for Ron Paul will hearten his whacko supporters as well.
171, John, since even more states tried to front-load the process this year. Super Tuesday was usually in March - after several of the smaller and medium sized states had gone first - now they’re all bunched together at the start of February; hence adding another superlative to the title.
171 - It only started in 1988, and was about 8 states (which was a lot). It has been Super Tuesday until this time, when having 21 states (ish!) justified an upgrade of ginormity.
174 — I agree with Morus. Good night for McCain, Paul, and Huckabee
171. Since the number of states holding primaries on that day rose by ca. 50%.
Obama on CNN live now
169. Indeed, Gore and Kerry were a couple of stiffs. Gore was singularly charmless. “I invented the internet”.
Jeez.
Given a choice, Americans will usually vote for the more charming candidate - Dubya, Bill Clinton, Reagan, Kennedy…
I know there are exceptions, but there is a truth here.
OK now I’m off to bed. Fascinating night. Vale, peebles.
Huckabee set the post-caucus rhetoric bar pretty high… be interesting to see how Obama compares.
181 He just pole jumped it in 5 sentences
180. Grrrrrrrr. Sean - I know you are only trotting out that “Gore claimed to have invented the internet” pile of old sh*te to annoy me…
178. ? Oh… I thought Super Tuesday was about 20 or 21 states last time, but obviously I’m misunderrememberating…
Ben, it sounds pretty impressive so far. A rehash of the 2004 democrat convention but that is his speech
182. And the presentation is by a huge margin the most presidential.
Not bad for a man with a cold who has “lost” his voice.
185 - It’s classic Obama-fare, a speech rich in high optimism and vision… the key as you suggest, he does it so well!
Interesting contrast with Huckbee’s more folksy approch.
Quite a lot of cliches…. not as good as Huckabee but better than Billary or Edwards.
However he has that slight Martin Luther King timbre in his voice - “I have a dream!”. The right timbre can get you a long way.
He definitely has the Big Mo.
183. AND Gore claimed he was the hero of Love Story. What a berk.
Anybody think that Huckabee was better? Obama to me appears to be in a different class.
Listen to the long second syllable, followed with slight syncopation in key opening phrases - remind anyone of MLK?!
186 - Huckbee’s Speech = the speech of a Governor of Arkansas… Obama’s Speech = a speech of a potential president… or thats just my two pence worth
Sean how was the Huck better?
189 - Great minds don’t think alike, but we do!
192 — Well put ben
Obama is a great public speaker, this is a really good speech. Huckabee also did a great job.
I think that Huck was better as he seemed more spontaneous - Obama seems to be clearly reading back and forth between prompters on either side of him.
Obama’s speech is just a series of weary slogans - addition not division, hope over fear, yadda yadda. He delivers them well though. He does sound presidential.
Huckabee actually had some interesting quotes: G K Chesterton’s “love those behind you” - unexpected and intriguing. And even a tiny bit moving.
Huckabee might do quite well.
Oh no, he just used ‘enormity’ to mean ‘magnitude’!
Sell Obama.
196. “Obama seems to be clearly reading back and forth between prompters on either side of him”, though which as far as I can see are not actually there…
197 — I agree that Huck’s was a superb and more interesting speech than Obama’s. Huck will do well. However, I think Obama’s 1 speech (this one is the same as all the others) comes across better to most people. It is well delivered and quite presidential. Chesterton is more interesting; but the red states, blue states, united states schtick goes down brilliantly.
Good peroration. 8/10.
198. http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?enormity
CNN - Biden will drop out.
My predictions for Romney and Edwards wins prove that nobody is perfect :-).
Romney’s now in real trouble, but if he goes down, so is the republican establishment. They hate Huckabee, have major problems with Giuliani’s social liberalism and distrust McCain. If McCain wins big in NH (say scores above 40%), they may gather around him as the Stop Huckabee candidate. Giuliani is still a contender for this role.
Obama’s victory is bigger than most expected. Edwards will solider on, even though he is now nearly without real prospects of winning, so Obama cannot count on to many voters from that direction. Hillary is in trouble, but can recover. I’m buying her now, to balance my portolio, as I’m deeply green on Obama. But I will not be surprised if Obama becomes the odds-on favorite tomorrow.