Why my money is staying on our 50/1 long-shot
January 4th, 2008
It’s going to be hard for Hillary to get back into this
It was on May 27th 2005 that I first suggested on the site that the then relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois was a good bet for the 2008 White House Race. At the time you could have got 50/1 on him going all the way and I know that many site visitors did place bets. Those odds have shrunk to 7/2 this morning after his victory in Iowa - the first state to decide on the candidates. That price looks great value.
- The margin of more than 8% that pushed Hillary Clinton into third place was greater than the polls were predicting and was particularly significant because of the independent voters and the numbers of young voters who turned out last night to support Obama at the the caucus meetings across the state.
Obama now goes into the New Hampshire primary with all the momentum on his side and he could even by the betting favourite by the weekend to get the nomination. The latest Betfair price has him at 1.3/1 with Hillary still odds-on at 0.83/1.
A lot now depends on how the US media reports the outcome and how the rest of the nation will view a state which is 95% white giving so much backing to a black challenger. His colour, my guess, will become less and less of an issue. I’ve stepped up my betting on him.
Mike Huckabee’s emphatic victory in the GOP race could surely be the death-knell of Mitt Romney’s campaign and makes next Tuesday’s clash in New Hampshire even more interesting. Without sounding too self-congratulatory I suggested here in August that he was worth betting on for the nomination when the was 60/1.
- There has been a tendency amongst many observers to write Huckabee off - but he is hugely dangerous to the more well-established contenders. His victory speech in Iowa proved to me that he is head and shoulders above the others when it comes to coming over well in the media. This former preacher-man might continue to surprise us.
What was common to both parties in Iowa was that the youngest candidate won in each case and that the victories went to the strongest and most able communicators. In the TV age you have to make an impact and both Obama and Huckabee can be very effective.
Mike Smithson
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Huckabee is a heck of a candidate and he will entirely mop up the Christian right vote. This is a sizable minority of the party and will see him remain a strong candidate throughout the campaign. However, his continued success will cause the establishment business/billionaire wing of the party to bust a nut as they try to stop him. This group are not concerned about social conservatism, although they’ve happily played that card to use religious votes to get their coalition elected - a coalition which is mainly committed to cutting taxes, cutting regulation, and opening markets abroad. They will be looking to find a candidate to oppose Huckabee and if Romney performs poorly in New Hampshire, they will be forced to choose between McCain and Giuliani. I have a feeling they will back Giuliani.
Will this result have any efect on the strength of the dollar?
The great brains behind the Clinton campaign are now suggesting that they can revive their campaign in Florida and the Super-Tuesday states regardless of the results in NH, SC and NV… it’s pretty much the same approch as Gulianni in the GOP race and probably has about the same prospect of sucess.
Having said that, Clinton’s still in contention in NH, SC and NV… but with Obama’s win in IA it’s a long way back and it’s only going to get longer, so if her campaign is seriously resting their hopes on FL and Super Tuesday, i dont rate their chances.
This is a setback for Clinton no doubt, but I think everyone needs to calm down and stop with the over-analysis. This was a caucus not a primary and whilst Obama did well this race has a long way to go. There is still plenty of opportunity for all candidates to gaffe there way out of the race. I think the winners of both caucuses are in a more dangerous position due to expectation now and also the temptation to over hype. If the Obama/Huckabee teams start over-spinning the results then they could land themselves in trouble.
Mike
Stop talking through your pocket.
If Hilary takes NH or Florida then shes in it. End of.
At this time she’s capable of doing both.
If Obama takes the first 3 states then yes you can say its going to be hard for Clinton to get into it.
Seriously, cut the hyperbole.
You’re right. Huckabee is a hell of a media performer.
Said it before, will say it again, the smart money INSIDE the Clinton camp abandoned Iowa a month ago, and have been working to build firewall for Hilary in New Hampshire. To make her The Comeback Kid of ‘08 like Bill was in NH in ‘92.
4 makes strong point re: expectations. Could be tricky for Obama IF they get way out of hand. And most certainly Clintonistas will NOT go gentle into that good night. Would expect Hilary’s people to really start putting squeeze on labor esp. Edwards supporters & fellow travelers.
HOWEVER the KEY POINT is that Obama has the momentum. And this is a man whose bread and butter is busting through his expectations like Evel Kineval rocketing over a line of school buses.
PLUS the breakneck schedule from here on out, with just days until the New Hampshire primary, has the effect of enhancing the impact of momentum. Because the opposition - in Obama’s case Clinton & Edwards and “Final Four” Richardson - has VERY little time to put up road blocks. A real steeplechase.
his speech tonight was a classic, a reprise of his 2004 Dem national convention address and aimed right at the not-so-flinty hearts of Granite State voters.
though must be remembered that compressed timeframe increases impact of Obama’s wave from his Midwest heartland. For make no mistake, this guy IS from the heart of the homeland, he’s like a 21st-century Young Abe Lincoln. Now Mike Huckabee is very mediagenic, but he is NOWHERE in the same league as Barack Obama.
My definitive “No” when Mike first suggested Obama at 50.1 is looking more foolish by the hour. In fact it might turn out to be a contender for the worst prediction of the decade if Mike ever chooses to run such a competition.
However all is not lost for Hillary. Iowa is one of those places that was always likely to find Obama’s sermonizing style attractive but when they get back to the more civilized states such as New Hampshire- where the misogynist tendency will be less in evidence-the tables could well turn.
Yes, Huckabee comes over as a sincere, conversational, down to earth nice guy, a US Charles Kennedy minus the alcohol problem. People are saying that, should he get the nomination, he’d be torn apart in a presidential debate, but the wisecracks and the ‘aw shucks’ manner could garner him many votes. And his waggish affability would make it very easy for many voters to overlook his previous suggestion that AIDS patients be quarantined, and his comparison of same s*x relationships to b*stality and n*crophilia.
Obama still evens to take NH with Paddy Power, and McCain 8/11.
Yokel: the key states are now New Hampshire and South Carolina. If Obama wins these, then even a victory for Clinton in Florida may not be enough
I expect blood to be shed in the Clinton campaign staff today…
2. USD will be affected if any of the likely winners start to talk about a) bombing bits of the middle east, b) encroaching on Fed territory and especially c) taking action against currency manipulators like China Japan Russia Middle East etc etc.
Hilary has already done a bit of c) rightly in my view.
10. Looking at exchange prices, McCain in NH at 8/11 seems more of sure thing as he’s up against a very weakened Romney rather than HC, but with Obama having the Mo and now 1.36/1 for the nomination its not bad.
I think last night has just livened the whole thing up. The Democrat race is now a genuine two horse race and will depend on how the Iowa victory pans out in the media. For the Republicans, McCain and Huckabee should share the next few states, but crucially, Huckabee should be favourite to take Florida over the next few days. And then the story becomes how Guiliani’s tactics were flawed. Three-horse race (with a weakened Guiliani) with McCain and Guiliani squabbling over the moderate votes. If Huckabee can get some money together to tackle Super Duper Tuesday, he’s looking good for the nomination.
Great night for Big Mc backers, his odd have shrunk nicely.
I hope that some of the lurkers here actually place bets because there has been some nice tips put up here.
Said it before, will say it again, the smart money INSIDE the Clinton camp abandoned Iowa a month ago, and have been working to build firewall for Hilary in New Hampshire. To make her The Comeback Kid of ‘08 like Bill was in NH in ‘92.
4 makes strong point re: expectations. Could be tricky for Obama IF they get way out of hand. And most certainly Clintonistas will NOT go gentle into that good night. Would expect Hilary’s people to really start putting squeeze on labor esp. Edwards supporters & fellow travelers.
HOWEVER the KEY POINT is that Obama has the momentum. And this is a man whose bread and butter is busting through his expectations like Evel Kineval rocketing over a line of school buses.
PLUS the breakneck schedule from here on out, with just days until the New Hampshire primary, has the effect of enhancing the impact of momentum. Because the opposition - in Obama’s case Clinton & Edwards and “Final Four” Richardson - has VERY little time to put up road blocks. A real steeplechase.
Last but not least, Obama’s speech tonight was a classic, a reprise of his 2004 Dem national convention address, aimed right at the not-so-flinty hearts of Granite State voters.
Best line in Boston 04 and Des Moines 08: “We are not a collection of Red States and Blue States - we are the United States of America!” As he stood there tonight: true son of the Heartland, for all the world a 21st-century Young Abe Lincoln, giving a speech that the Railsplitter himself could have delivered.
Now Mike Huckabee is very mediagenic, but he is NOWHERE in the same league as Barack Obama.
Quick rundown re: REPUBLICANS
HUCKABEE has demonstrated that he has not just support of evangelicals, but also a measure of enthusiasm. BUT did poorly in Dubuque which is Catholic center and bad sign for him going into New Hampshire, where Southern Baptists are thin on the ground. That said actived a major victory that will reverberate beyond the Granite State.
ROMNEY is in better shape that lot of people think. Mainly because Rudy Guiliani is total toast UNLESS Romney completely distructs in the next three weeks, which is unlikely. So where does that leave GOPers allergic to a semi-retired televangelist as the next GOP nominee AND also to the likes of JMcC??? Fred Thompson???
Speaking of THOMPSON his 3rd place is surprising robust for a candidate who appears to be on Ibogane (read your HST F&LOTCT ‘72). My theory is that he’s a parking lot for conservative types who don’t want a preacher, a mavrick, a Mormon, an anti-war libertarian OR a New York a-hole on the top of their ticket this November. BUT when the field clears a bit they will gravitate to the least-worse alternative with a shot . . . and that won’t be Freddy T.
Also have a hunch that the Romney camp may have thown Fred some of Mitt’s rent-a-vote. After all, they likely knew a week ago at least that 1st place was impossible but 2nd was a cinch. In that case, helping to keep McC from achieving 3rd would be smart strategy.
Well I turned a small profit last night on Obama with Betfair, which was pleasing.
I was tempted earlier in the week with Intrade - even set up an account, and there was some good money to be made last night if you were quick. However, I wasn’t sure what happens if you trade on, say Obama, last night in the Iowa primary and when it looks like he’s going to win and there’s no one left to buy your stock. Is it like Betfair and needs another punter to match your trade, or is it a bit more like a casino or Spreadfair where you cash your chips in at the end of the event?
Must say I was glued to my seat last night - the Iowa Caucus may be strange and only involve 3% or less of the total electorate (with maths on the Democrat side that make the D’Hondt formula look like the 5x table), but it was marvellous to see the voter engagement and raw power of democracy in action - even in people’s living rooms! We’re desperately missing that this side of the Atlantic.
Go Obama!
I know Amercians, by and large, are pretty stupid, but even they I am sure are not stupid enough to elect President Hilary.
Shame Huckabee is a religious muppet. I quite like the cut of his gib, but really don’t want the religious Right leading the world’s most powerful nation.
Which is why I generally incline towards the Democrats when it comes to US politics, such as I take any interest at all.
I think an Obama-Cameron partnership could be quite an attractive one compared to the Bush/Blair alliance. Obama-Gordon? Nah, can’t see that somehow…
Can anyone please point me to links to Huckabee and Obama’s speeches?
An interesting stat from groupnewsblog:
Iowa Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
356,000
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee
Rteading across blogs and news reports from Iowa, the Democrats were being overwhelmed by unpexectedly high turnout, while Republican caucuses were very sparsely attended. Huckabee seems to be energising the Christian right, but not much else.
Just a quick comment, partly from time pressures but also because the good points already made.
This race is likely to be a long one for both parties. That will make the ability to fight a national campaign crucially important. I doubt Huckabee can do that, though McCain, Romney and Giuliani can (though as Giuliani is choosing not to at the moment, his ability to is of little relevance). All the Democrats can, so Yokel is right when he says don’t write Hillary off yet (not that Mike has!), but I think too confident in her ability to rebound.
Hope not too many followed my backing of Romney last night. You can’t get them all right!
JamesF: video of Obama’s speech at dailykos.com
17
The contract ends when the event ends. The correct term for this type of contract is ‘all or nothing’. You bought Obama, he won so the make up is 100. It is always 100 or 0 - all or nothing.
You should not bet on what you do not fully understand, read the rules and understand the commision structure on Intrade.
I would be real careful about buying Obama at current levels, looks like a bull trap to me.
22: Thanks
Congratulations to Obama and Huckabee, but don’t write Hillary off yet. Still have hopes of Hillary Clinton becoming President and Hilary Benn becoming PM, what a double that would be. President and PM different sexes, with the same first name, (ok one L difference) odds on that?
Thanks to all posters here for the excellent coverage on last night - showing the mainstream media up, yet again.
Obviously a good night for Obama, and the Democrats overall. I’m a bit like seant when it comes to personal choice - I want a change and Obama seems to personify that the most, despite the fact I’ve no real idea what he stands for. Clnton/Edwards didn’t do badly enough to be weakened, just Obama strengthened.
And I wouldn’t write Romney off too soon - Iowa isn’t enough to fatally wound him, despite the fact that Huckabee seems to be growing in confidence. If he’s a Christian Charles Kennedy type then he sounds like my kind of guy if he’s not too right-wing headbanging, and it sounds like his speech impressed last night. Giuliani surely has it all to do if he is behind Paul and Thompson here.
20 — James D, those figures look great if you are a democrat. How are the republicans spinning this? Does this suggest that Iowa will lean blue in November?
OT — I could not load pb.com at all last night until it was all over. Perhaps some of the Huckabee and Obama winnings should be invested in a new server and perhaps a new hosting company.
What did surprise me was how light the betting was. The totals matched for the Iowa caucuses on Betfair were £28,599 on the Democrats and £22,579 for the Republicans. And because Betfair double count stakes, that is really a total of £25,000 over both races. In other words, few punters really cared.
28 — John L. I had the same problem for about half an hour on the end of the old thread then it got sorted out. I think there were some server suggestions and we will have fewer problems in the future.
Mike Smithson equated Hillary Clinton with Gordon Brown in the previous thread. That is wrong.
Barack is Gordon. Obama is running on big tent politics: talk to the insurance companies, involve the Republicans. My suspicion is that when it comes to policies, Republican voters will prefer to support actual Republicans, and Democrats Democrats.
The question for punters is whether Hillary is the American David Davis: the seemingly inevitable heir apparent who lost to the new, young orator.
Mike. Excellent night on PB.com last night. Thanks very much to you and Paul Maggs.
I’m quite tired this morning having followed events through the night. Could you please start the New Hampshire primary voting a bit earlier so we don’t all have to stay up quite so late next time?
Many thanks.
8 - “Iowa is one of those places that was always likely to find Obama’s sermonizing style attractive but when they get back to the more civilized states such as New Hampshire- where the misogynist tendency will be less in evidence-the tables could well turn.”
Sorry Rodger but you dont have a clue!
If anything Obama will do better in the more secular, libertarian leaning New Hampshire than he did in the more tradtional Iowa - in IA independents (the bedrock of Obama’s sucess) made up 20% of the electorate in NH they make up 40%!
Momentum and expectations count for everything in a primary campaign and talk of Clinton “firewalls” is just bunk… i would be surprised if Clinton’s position in NH (where pre-IA she was tied with Obama) can withstand comming a poor third in Iowa, and then the same is true in SC… by that time her campaign’s position in FL and the Super Tuesday states will have been hammered by a string of losses… folks in the UK really underestimate the essential importance of momentum in this sort of campaign.
My money has also been and will continue to be on Obama,as is Mike’s.
Iowa By the Numbers
Four statistics blew me away tonight:
Obama beat Hillary among women voters 35 to 30 percent.
Amid record Democratic turnout, as many people under 30 showed up to caucus as those over 65.
Sixty percent of the GOP electorate in Iowa were born-again Christians.
Rudy Giuliani finished with a mere 4,013 votes, in sixth place, with less than half of the support of Ron Paul.
Taking them in order:
One:
Hillary lost tonight to Barack Obama by 8 points — a margin just as wide as Mitt Romney catastrophic shortfall against Mike Huckabee.
And Obama beat her eight ways to Sunday. He edged her out among Democrats 32/31, and cleaned her clock among independents (44/17) and wayward Republicans (41/10). He beat her among people making less than $15,000 (37/30) and more than $100,000 (41/19). He beat her among health-care voters (34/30) and suburban voters (30/25).
Most astounding however, he beat her among her core supporters, women, by five points. What more can I say than — in a night of mind boggling statistics — that that’s the stat of the night.
30 Disagree. Toby Harnden is his report of last night refers to the differing treatment from Obama and Clinton camps towards the press - Obama staffers welcoming, eager to help versus Clinton’s control freakery (Chelsea Clinton refusing a child reporter an interview, no foreign press allowed at Hilary’s speech last night). That has echoes of Brown and his close advisors and selection of Marr for the no-election interview.
The media are important to keep onside - Brown lost them, Clinton seems to be doing the same. Consciously or subconsciously that will affect how stories are presented. Hilary Clinton has been the Gordon Brown figure - waiting for her chance to take the big job; now she’s being found out.
31 - Since you ask, consider it done. By an hour
(Iowa is Central Time, New Hants Eastern)
Agree with most of that Mike,
16 - Iowa was always going to be a no win for Hilary regardless of where she came. The win for Obama gives him and his ‘feel-good’ campaign such a boost that she will need decisvie wins to take back the initiative. Talking of 92, Obama actually reminds me of Clinton (Mr), without the smell of Flowers of course.
21 - agree that the ‘national’ element of a long campaign could prove vital but again Huckabee’s momentum could change the game with McCain potentially benefiting from a Huckabee-Guiliani scrap.
There doesn’t seem to be much response to that around yet, probably won’t be until the US begins to wake up this morning!
I think the GOP has a real problem here; the turnout seems to reflect the fact that the Dems, while debating vigorously (!) in-house as to which candidate is the best, have been very vocal about lining up behind whichever wins to make sure there’s a Democratic president, while on the Rep side, the distaste each faction has for the others is becoing more and more evident.
It’s been said before that outside the Christian Right the Reps really don’t like Huckabee, but Daily Kos has a transcript with the chair of the RNC, where he avoids mentioning Huckabee’s name completely, despite being pressed by the interviewer. I think they recognise that Huckabee will be anathema to a huge number of undecided voters, and will also get the Democrat base out.
There’s a lot of talk about candidates for Senate and House riding on the coattails of a successful presidential campaign, and with this autumn looking difficult for the GOP even before last night, the fact that in a state that was at least marginally for Bush in 00 and 04, the turnout was so much lower, doesn’t bode well for them.
I’ve tried without much success to find historical figures for caucus turnouts. The Dem turnout is virtually 100% up on 04, but there was no GOP caucus then. Can’t find figures for 2000.
The Pirate Party has endorsed Obama. Surely it is all over now.
http://www.pirate-party.us/
“The Pirate Party of the United States today officially announces its endorsement of Barack Obama’s Presidential Campaign. We strongly urge all supporters of the US Pirate Party to support his campaign, and vote for him in both the primaries, and in November.”
Yokel@5: If Hillary won New Hampshire obviously she’d be back with a vengence, but Florida? The state which the national party has ruled gets 0 delegates, and Obama isn’t competing in at their request?
I can certainly see how Hillary would win Florida - it would be hard for her to lose it - but does anyone think it could really kill Obama’s momentum?
37 - The BBC has “turnout was also up on the Republican side, with more than 114,000 people taking part - up from fewer than 90,000 in the last contested Republican caucuses in 2000.” but no idea how reliable that is.
[39] Why have the Dems disenfranchised Floridans?
32. “Sorry Rodger but you dont have a clue!”
On the evidence so far I’d have to agree….
41 - I think it was for trying to hold a primary before New Hampshire’s. There are others in the same boat.
41 Because they have brought their primary forward against the wishes of the DNC (which wants it about a week later iirc).
How the, ‘Daily Mash’ sees the result.
http://tinyurl.com/yuutbo
39. My point is that Hilary’s loss has been overplayed to.
Obama has some momentum yes but take a look at the state by state polls where they are available and Clinton is still on top of the tree at the moment. Death in NH would be a problem but again in itself not fatal though that would be damaging.
Don’t get me wrong, I long predicted a Clinton bump and also beleieved that when the party really was faced with putting her up for President it could well do so with a lot of reservations if not not baulk completely.
Whilst Florida is a bit of a farce this year for teh Dems winning is winning. Iowa is no great shakes when it comes to the delegates and it has been known to be quirky but its being given too much credence in itself. Come NH & SC then we should get clear on both sides since both sates are real battlegrounds.
I just felt the headline was pushing it too far, possibly based on a large ante post voucher which is understandable but its still over egging the pudding.
All very interesting and inconclusive. Looking at the editorial in Real Clear Politics, the consensus seems to be that Romney is seriously wounded and Clinton moderately wounded. (They also confi8rm that BBC report on turnout, by the way.) It’s difficult to see Edwards recovering - he at least partly avoided the squeeze that I predicted but it was still his best shot. Interestingly, his comment was that ‘The important thing is that change won’, which maybe suggests that if he drops out at some point he might support Obama.
One comment by Podhoretz, a right-wing pundit, is that it’s all good for Guiliani, since Huckabee won’t in his view sustain his victory but he’s stopped anyone else from emerging as leader from the early contests.
I still think Clinton is rightly the favourite among punters on the Dem side - huge national lead and really the obvious choice - but I’m not as sure as I was. I have absolutely no idea about the Reps - seems entirely open.
43/44 Surely both parties need to agree to hold their primaries on the same night in the same states?
Otherwise you could get a situation where the other party’s registered voters turn up en masse to a caucus, re-register and support some whacko to throw a spanner in the works of the candidate they most fear?
My main impression from watching the CNN reports of the Iowa caucus last night was that America once again feels that it’s “Time for Change”.
Hillary Clinton, addressing her supporters after the vote, flanked by her husband Bill who looked a lot older than I have previously noted, did not project change. The Clintons were the future once. Not now.
Hillary = Gordon Brown to Bill’s Blair ?
Still stand by my prediction that it will be an Obama-Romney play off in November.
The republicans still have to choose an anyone but Huck candidate, and Guliani has the negatives, and Mr Chips doesn’t have the organisation. Romney will come through as the safe pair of hands. If Fred had run a better campaign it would be his for the taking, but still wouldn’t completely rule him out. Likely that he will be the kingmaker to Romney’s king.
Is it likely that a country that chose Bush not once but twice would now go directly to Obama? Isn’t it more likely that they would go first to the half-way house of Hillary? Think of the lion taming sketch from Monty python……..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMOmB1q8W4Y
To clear up the delegates thing: Florida and Michigan disobeyed national Democratic rules by moving their primaries and have been stripped of all their delegates (Florida has lost half its delegates to Republican Convention for same reason).
People getting excited about Obama need to look at the polling across the Super Duper Tuesday states, especially the really big ones: California (441), New York (281), Illinois (185), New Jersey (127), Mass (121) and Georgia (103) - all others fewer than 100. Clinton miles ahead in NY/NJ and Obama miles ahead in Illinois, for obvious home-state reasons. Watch California - where Clinton has been showing a 20% lead over Obama - if that starts closing substantially, then hang on to the long Obama bets.. if not, start laying.
Morning all. Wasn’t that fun!
Yokel’s cautionary note is worth heeding. It ain’t over yet. I make it 4/5 Hillary still.
On the Republican side, seems we’re shaping up for a Guiliani/McCain shoot out, although Huckabee will stick around for a bit, complicating matters, and Romney is entirely dead yet.
Thanks to everybody here for making it another great nite on PB.
And thanks too to Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes for paying out so quickly.
53 - which primaries operate on a “winner takes all” basis? I get very confused over US elections. Even in the November run-off, I think Maine can split its college vote.
Grr, betfair hasn’t paid out yet. Not that I have much there, but bookies holding onto money always annoys (even though they’re an exchange, so it’s totally irrational). Wasn’t much either, but since the Ron Paul supporters were handing out free money……
A lot of people misunderstand american race politics, it isnt people like Obama that frighten white America. If you have ever seen the infamous chris rock sketch, you will understand.
Republicans would have voted en masse for Colin (colleen) Powell, americans are no less likely to vote for a black president because they are black, then the British electorate would vote for a party led by a woman.
55. You need thegreenpapers.com - encyclopaedic guide to election rules. Basically all the Democratic primaries are proportional, with the story more complicated on the Republican side. For the actual Presidential election, I think almost all states are winner-takes-all for the Electoral College votes.
oh, and PS. Obama is not black, and has practically no black influences on his upbringing.
58 Except Maine, and ? one other
Re Iowa - can’t really surpass this superb analysis on Real Clear politics…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/on_the_iowa_results.html
re 56. Well Betfair have certainly paid out on the Democrat race. The GOP Iowa page has suspended written all over it. I think the difference is down to the Dems getting their final results out faster.
Struck reading the matter of fact comments above by how amazing last night really was. Sorry to go off betting but:
My first memories of US politics are JFK’s assassination, Mississippi burnings, the Klu Klux clan, “Strange Fruit” by Nina Simone, civil rights marches, bus boycotts, riots. Last night in a 91% white (including 4% hispanics) middle American mid West state , a man with an African father and a foreign African name won a Presidential primary. It’s quite possible that by the 40th anniversary in April of Martin Luther King’s assassination he will be nearly certainly the Democratic nominee.
That, except sadly that one has died (Yolanda King last year), Dr King’s “”I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” has to a great extent been fulfilled by last night’s vote.
“I know Amercians, by and large, are pretty stupid, but even they I am sure are not stupid enough to elect President Hilary.”
If they’re so stupid, it’s rather surprising that they should be so wealthy and successful a nation.
64. In PC-lefty-world anyone who doesn’t do what you’d do is either stupid or evil.
57 - despite my multiple misgivings over Dubya, I have to applaud the fact that he brought in Powell and Rice. I don’t think Republican voters minded they weren’t white and we do stereotype Americans and race relations too easily.
After Powell and Rice reached senior office, a President who is not 100% Anglo-Saxon / Irish suddenly became more likely. Good on ya, W.
59 In the 60’s & 70’s a man with a black father and dark skin whoever brought him up would be a “black” (or worse) in US eyes. Now the argument is whether he’s a neighbourhood brother or not, that’s progress.
63 Ted - Strange Fruit - Bille Holliday, I think you’ll find. Sorry to quibble about such a fine post, but credit where it’s due.
64 - Hear, hear.
We have all seen the shortcomings of a president with limited experience, I still cannot understand why there seems to be so much enthusiasm for a candidate with even less experience than Bush had.
It might have been a bit more laudable if Bush hadn’t run such a repulsively racist hit job on McCain’s “black” daughter in the 2000 South Carolina primaries.
64 Yes SeanF, what an exceptionally stupid comment that was. Anybody who watched the telecast from the Democrat Caucus last nite cannot fail to have been impressed by the integrity of the process and the intelligence of the people operating it.
Would that we had something similar here.
Cheers for those who gave Huckabee/Obama tips, I made a few quid and am quite chuffed.
Moving on, I want to reinvest some of my winnings but am wary of the numbers, I guess the polling over the next few days might show people switching with the momentum. My question is which US pollsters are reliable?
Im looking at RealClearPolitics for their comprehensive and commendable coverage of US polling data, but what strikes me most is the plethora of companies who conduct the research. Which are the key pollsters to look out for?
68 My memory is Nina Simone’s version - played on LM radio from Portuguese Mozambique of all places - in around 1965, rather than the pre WWII version.
73 I’m a lot older than you, Ted. I’ve got it on a 78.
Just watched Obama’s victory speech last night, it was brilliant, he was clearly aping both Martin Luther King and JFK and it worked.
Up to now always felt that Hillary Clinton would win given both her dominance of the party machinery and the support of Bill but I have changed my mind. I do acknowledge the lead she has in many of the other states (especially California and Florida) but the difference between her and Barack Obama speeches last night could not have been more stark, she (and Bill) are going to be seen as the past while Obama will be seen as the future - always a powerful thing if you can pull it off (UK examples Wilson, Blair and to some extent Thatcher). He also seems to have the capacity to enthuse non committed voters (evidenced by the high turnouts in the Democratic caucuses).
A good place to get the feelings of democrats is on the New Republic site ( US magazine similar to the New Statesman ) http://www.tnr.com/ , there is a good article on the state of play inside the Clinton camp currently.
72 Glad to hear it, Whelan. As usual, there was no shortage of top quality tipping advice here on PB and those that followed it should be counting their winnings this morning.
Pollsters? Definitely NOT American Research Group. They had Clinton ahead in Iowa by 9ps.
Maybe they sent their people to the wrong State - Iowa/Ohio - similar names. Easy mistake to make. 
The Des Moines Register was pretty much bang on the money (again) but that’s not going to help you much with the forthcoming elections. Zogby and Rasmussen are pretty reliable, and most of the others are OK.
But read PB.com! It’s the most reliable source of all.
Morning
“Clinton aides hint now things’ll get nasty”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/on-second-thoug.html
76 Btw Whelan, I’d definitely take the 10/11 on Obama to win New Hampshire, offered by Paddy Power.
……..Is it likely that a country that chose Bush not once but twice would now go directly to Obama? Isn’t it more likely that they would go first to the half-way house of Hillary?………
No. Much of America now sees Bush as a mistake. A huge mistake. Obama represents real change, a new start. Hilary Clinton is a step backwards and who will really be pulling the strings? Bill or Hilary?. The result in New Hampshire will be stunning for Obama. Some were not brave enough to take that leap in Iowa, but after last night Obama is the new hope across America, the golden boy everyone is be talking about. He is the most dynamic and exciting candidate in this race and Iowa only hinted at how well he will do.
new hampshire currently -21 celsius. ouch.
78 - Thanks for that, PtP. From what I’ve read earlier re Florida do people think 1/2 Clinton there is value or not?
33. You obviously don’t understand the difference between the phant and ass caucuses in Iowa if you’re making cross-party comparisons between the candidates’ percentages of the “vote”. The asses don’t report the actual percentage of caucusers who voted for each candidate, whereas the phants do. The asses report the percentage of delegates to the state convention who are aligned to that candidate. This is intended to roughly reflect the number of votes for each candidate after application of the 15% cut-off. This is why a number of minor asses are reported as receiving 0%; their supporters were forced to choose again. The further details of how these numbers are translated into delegates to the DN convention are too tedious to relate (it’s a four stage process…).
Obama probably picked up more second preferences than Hillary, which would have made his lead seem greater than if it were reported on the basis that the phants use.
20. phant caucuses weren’t sparsely attended. They were up considerably from the last contested caucus. The idea you can compare votes between parties as though it were a two party election is naive. Asses typically turn-out in greater numbers for these things than phants. It’s probably fair to say the phants weren’t quite as excited about the choices available as the asses.
81 - What are the exact details of what’s happening in Florida - is Obama on the ticket, but just not campaigning, or not on the ticket at all, and what’s the state of play with Edwards in a similar vein?
“Analysis: Huckabee up, Clinton down heading to Granite State”
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/04/iowa.analysis/?iref=hpmostpop
“Is the Choice Huckabee or McCain?”
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MzkzYjhhODAzNGM1MjA2MjA0NzZhNjgwMDc3MmQ4Y2I=
Obama is black like Halle Berry is black, nice black.
Powell, Berry, Obama, are Americans who happen to be black, not ‘Black Americans.’ Strangely enough those three have British links, Powell, family from Jamaica, Berry, mother from Liverpool, Obama father from Kenya.
Obama’s background therefore places him outside the normal Black American experience, I think this point was made in a ‘Panorama’ programme. White Americans find him acceptable, its ‘Black Americans’ who don’t see him as, ‘One of us’
80 - I would point out that it is a very different type of cold out there, it is surprising how warm -8C feels in New England compared to 1/2C in ‘old’ England.
PA reports:New Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg received an early by-election boost today as his party narrowly missed storming a Tory stronghold in the first council contest of 2008.
It came from a low third place two years ago to finish just 55 votes short at Welham Green, Welwyn Hatfield Borough, Hertfordshire.
But Liberal Democrats failed to field a candidate in this week’s only other by-election at Cambridgeshire County’s Roman Bank and Peckover division.
RESULTS:
Cambridgeshire County - Roman Bank and Peckover: C 897, Lab 380, Ukip 192. (May 2005 - C 2294, Lib Dem 1591). C hold.
Welwyn Hatfield Borough - Welham Green: C 539, Lib Dem 484, BNP 214, Lab 88. (May 2006 - C 707, Lab 198, Lib Dem 156). C hold. Swing 23.8% C to Lib Dem.
79 I take it from that, Merlin, you agree that 10/11 is good value on Obama to win NH!
85 - The preferred term in the US as a catch all is “African American”; a few months ago one of the major US channels had a sports reporter describing Lewis Hamilton as an African American, not sure why.
89
I wonder why white Americans aren’t referred too, as, ‘European Americans’?
79. Ramp alert
90 - if they could be, then Halle Berry, and others could equally be called “European Americans.”
Biracial is also a common term in the US, which is little used here.
Mixed night for me. McCain did well enough to make me happy. Lost some money on my direct bets. My unadjusted projeections got the order of the Democratic entrance poll and the Republican caucus correct but I outsmarted myself with my probabilistic predictions and elaborate caucus formula. IMHO Clinton will win New Hampshire, by a very small amount and McCain will win for the GOP with Huckabee second.
89. Probably ’cause he’s British & black they don’t know what to call him!? I believe that ‘African American’ is rather disliked by those from Carribean & Africa proper (ie they or their families have moved there from Africa in the last 50 or so years) backgrounds as for the former it’s not really discriptive & for the latter it is discriptive, but it’s used as a catch all for all black Americans.
90 They are coldstone - Irish Americans, Italian Americans - but strangely, not German Americans, Scottish Americans - they are covered by WASP I suppose
87. Lol - Clegg storms to losing..
90. Because they’re all referred to as Italian Americans, Irish Americans etc. Funny how there’s so few people who regard themselves as English, Welsh or Scottish Americans!?
95
Thats the difference, by lumping all Black people together, we are failing to recognise the different cultural backgrounds that they come from. Obama has very little in common, with say Jesse Jackson.
98. Why differentiate at all - why “black people” and “white people” - why not “people” ?
98 Agreed but I don’t imagine that the blacks who would think Obama to not be “one of us” are the kind to swing an election anyway. Most probably wouldn’t vote. But he is sufficiently out of the black mainstream to appeal to whites. It makes him a brilliant candidate for the Democratic nomination but I wonder about the wider, more conservative electorate
94 The wonderful thing, Khun, is that these days so few people give a damn. When I think back to my childhood in the fifties….
Odd comment, Harry (90). Is anybody able to calculate the swing from Tories to Lib Dems in Welwyn? Is seems to me that Cameron is losing….
99
Wouldnt that be nice, if only!
Oh! German Americans are referred to as,’Dutch’ (from Deutch) as in ‘Dutch Schultz’
I concur with Sean Fear and PtP.
Bob Sykes’ remark “I know Americans are stupid” was just nasty. Let’s hope it was a joke.
“I know Asians are stupid”, “I know Africans are stupid”…
What’s the difference? Tut tut.
The GOP race will be affected by who they are likely to face, they thought it was going to be Hilary and they knew that they could beat her with the right candidate. Now it may well be Obama and that changes the rules of the game, they would have to fight hope and youth rather than experience and competence. As such they may go for the latter (McCain/Giuliani), although they could equally say the jig is up and go for the no chance winners of Romney/Huckabee. Don’t forget that super duper Tuesday is off the backs of a few p[revious results and they won’t know what the Dems will do then, they are fighting blind.
Just how depressed is the GOP? The raw Iowa figures suggest that not even a widely divergent raft of candidates and the possibility of influence is energising them. If that’s the case then the religious right may well wield disproportionate influence and purity will win out over practicality (shades of the post Major tories, although that was ‘quasi-religious’).
It needs McCain and Giuliani to give the GOP something to vote *for* now, if they can do so (and they could help each other in this) then they are back in the game.
In short, I’m tempted to go for Obama president, Huckabee GOP nom *or* Clinton nomination, McCain/Giuliani president. Hmmm, too many variables….
97 - Agree about the English and Welsh Americans but I think you’re wide of the mark about Scottish Americans. You’ll find that although clans have their links in the old world, their most vigorous modern incarnations are often in the US. For census purposes, I think that Americans of Scottish decent are often lumped in with the Irish though which somewhat confuses the issue. On the whole, I get the impression that to claim Scottish or Irish ancestry is whole lot more sexy than claiming English or Welsh.
105 — UKPaul, why do you suggest that Hillary is unelectable? I think this is a bit of a myth.
87 Richard H Interesting that the turnout seems up by 25% there and the BNP there for the first time suddenly getting more than twice Labour’s vote.
Were there any special factors?
On delivery, Obama is almost the opposite of Huckabee but both are excellent. Huckabee can give variety within an essentially conversational style, he’s particularly effective in his pacing and use of pauses of varying degrees; in short, a new style preacher.
Obama, on the other hand is (ironically given that their politics is the opposite) the old style preacher of the two. One wonderful technique, used so effectively by such as MLK (as previously mentioned) is the use of long vowel sounds at a higher pitch than expected and use of the length of that sound to modulate it higher throughout a sentence. Semiotically it signifies hope, his speech fits his ideals.
108. have a look at the Vote-2007 thread.
Americans stupid!
In three hundred years, they’ve gone from a few communities clinging to the Eastern Seaboard to the world’s largest economy and the world’s most powerfull nation: yep! stupid alright.
As for ‘Black Americans’ despite all of their problems, (and they should not be minimised) no country in the world offers Black people the opportunities that America does.
Colin Powell’s family had bought tickets to come to this country, from Jamaica, when a relative persuaded them to switch to New York. Would Powell have ended up a General in the British Army?
105 - She’s not unelectable, what she is, and moreso than Obama, is beatable. Anyone with a greater past and with a greater number of ‘anti’ supporters, is beatable. She’s the candidate that the GOP will be happier to gacem a known quantity.
I just read an article which summed it up, Clinton has a campaign, Obama has a movement. You can stop the former more easily than the latter.
97: Trust me, there are bucketloads of “Scottish” Americans. I meet them all the time, either in Edinburgh or over there. Managed to convince one I lived in a castle once…….
Hillary’s price has been drifting like the proverbial barge this morning and is now approaching evens.
Paddy Power has cut Obama’s New Hampshire price to 8/11. It’s probably still a value bet at that.
113 - I am going to a big family reunion in Edinburgh in August. There will be about 50 Scottish American and Scottish Canadians there.
Anyone who thinks Hilary will prove resilient in NH should look at Intrade. Interesting.
114 same sort of thing on spreadfair, I bought Obama earlier today and I could already sell at a profit.
Hilary is the toast that fell on the floor. They’re gonna try and scrape the butter off and try again, but it won’t work. She’s picked up too much fluff from the kitchen tiles of history. And now everyone has got bored of waiting for the toast and tried the Barack Obama cinnamon beigel they weren’t sure of, and discovered they really like it.
I’ll stop the breakfast metaphor now.
PS Mike S - I detected a tiny amount of talking-your-book last night, maybe? - but your excitement was understandable. Spotting Obama when he was 50-1 was a brilliant insight. Shame I didn’t act on it. Well done.
102. Looks like an odd result. Turnout was higher than in the May elections possibly because the BNP were standing and it motivated more people to vote. If it is considered to be a bad result for theTories its woeful for LAbour, but I don’t think you can really draw any realistic conclusions from it.
111 - re Powell becoming a general in British Army - no, probably not. But I think that’s more a function of (a) how few ’starred’ positions there are these days; and (b) the way promotion within the General Staff favours timeservers rather than the talented (the current upper reaches of the armed forces do suffer from comparison with their US counterparts). I don’t think it would be a race thing.
I’m sorely tempted to go against the tide on here and go for Clinton to hold in NH. Her support is pretty committed in the state and has been for some time.
The next day or two of polls may shed light on any impact Iowa has had but Clinton has consistently held leads of at least 4% in NH, even during the recent bump. 4% may evaporate or may be largely made up of Clinton’s core and thus likely to stay with her and turn out and not easy to turn.
Clinton has it all to play for in NH because she has perhaps just as much possibility to taking soft support for others.
By the way a few here had bet on Edwards at between 25-30% for Iowa I believe.
Our army still suffers a bit from the “playing fields of Eton and Harrow…” thing, too. From what I have seen (maybe not much?!) I don’t think black Brits are treated as third class citizens quite as much as “african americans” are
Just had a quick glance at the early morning US press coverage. Vastly favourable for Obama. Here’s the opening paras of the Chicago Tribune story:
“DES MOINES—Young voters and independents flooded gyms and church basements in record numbers Thursday night, delivering a historic and decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Barack Obama, as he vanquished Sen. Hillary Clinton and certified his standing as her principal challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Illinois Democrat spoke of the night as a “defining moment in history” to a throng of ecstatic supporters here, many of them young voters who have powered his campaign all along.
The extraordinary crowds that Obama had drawn…”
etc etc
The rest are similar. “Historic”, “turning point”, “resounding”…
121 Don’t do it, Yokel.
Look at the way the Independents voted in Iowa. It was they that accounted for the surprisingly large Obama win, not the youngsters. There are a lot more independents in NH.
I take it your McCaain position is giving you that warm fuzzy feeling today?
On Edwards %age, I just missed out. Had the next notch up at 16/1. I can afford to smile about it today.
124. But Peter the P, that somewhat contradicts your earlier remarks - when you said Hilary was still favourite.
As far as I see it, Hilary HAS to beat Obama in NH, no? Otherwise his momentum will be unstoppable. Americans like a winner, they like excitement, they like newness, they don’t particularly like Hilary Rodham Clinton.
All she had going for her was experience, and the sense that she was the inevitable winner. Take away the latter and she’s in a fix.
NH is now crucial, I’d have thought.
The reaction to the Obama victory, it seems to me, has been pretty interesting. We have remarked before on the polling data that is screaming for “change”. It seems that, in one of the whitest states of the Union, Obama is not merely acceptable, but is getting very strong positives. I agree that Hillary has a campaign, (which to my mind is actually far more resilient than a “movement’), but if change is the watchword, she looks too much like the machine pol to really chime. So, in New Hampshire Hillary is going to have to pull out all the stops. A further big win for Obama would not only undermine her “inevitability” factor but leave her all but stranded ahead of Super-Dupa Tuesday. She now has it all to do.
Meanwhile, the GOP leadership must be feeling pretty bleak. Turnout was a fraction of the Dem turnout, and the choices pared down to Huckabee who can motivate evangelicals and turn off everyone else; Romney, where the charge of being a manufactured candidate is sticking and the establishment guy is plainly not cutting the mustard. The GOP grandees will now have to look to Guliani who may not be able to come back at Huckabee or McCain who owes them no favours.
In the event, if Obama ends up as the candidate, it won’t even matter- the Dems would be in landslide territory.
76/78 Thanks for the tip, I doff my cap to PB. I see the odds have slipped to 8/11 but I still will have a flutter.
Obama has at times underwhelmed me, but the last 3 minutes of his victory speech from last night are nothing short of brilliant.
102 Now THAT’s a bizarre comment !! LDs storm into….2nd place, oh dear oh dear - you took a lot of the Labour vote (or did they all vote BNP?) and you still couldn’t win.
127.
Excellent value ,even at 8/11,
I have also taken it and anticipate 8/15 before much longer.
Many thanks to all the information gleaned from pbc.
30.
“Hillary is the American David Davis: the seemingly inevitable heir apparent”
surely the seemingly peculiar hair apparent (in both cases) - as opposed to Cameron, the increasingly Prince Edward hair not apparent?
125 Only slightly, SeanT, and in any case I reserve the right to be inconsistent.
After last nite, I had her down as 4/5 still but I’ve got into the detail more today and the press reaction has of course been interesting. From a purely betting viewpoint, it depends where you’re starting from. I have a very strong Obama book and will not now be laying it off until she touches evens, at which point she starts to be value.
You understate the significance of NH. Obama still *has* to win it if he’s to have any chance of the Nomination but if he does, he suddenly becomes favorite. Intrade has him favorite to win NH, as do the UK bookies (around about 8/11) now that PP has come into line. I think they have it right.
Subject to events, I think Obama will win NH and that should shift him to marginal favorite.
Does that make sense?
92.
“Halle Berry”
World’s prettiest scouser!
127 - remember, tips are only tips at a given price - which in this case was 10/11. When prices shorten a punter must re-assess: (a) has he missed the boat, or (b) is he in danger of being too stubborn in refusing to take a shorter price.
Intrade and Betfair (though both illiquid) suggest a market price of 4/6 or thereabouts so 8/11 is probably still value, but much more marginally so.
Personally I think the momentum is with Obama now - good luck to all those with 50/1 vouchers. Unfortunately if he is the nominee I can’t see him beating my 33/1 shot (McCain).
124. Ah you didnt play the safety on Edwards then.
Clinton’s support runs much deeper in NH, much deeper than it did in Iowa. Sure a few percent that she’s ahead is thin especially with the Iowa race and Obama’s momentum but these early state types don’t necessarily just follow the lead of each other. I expect contrary results.
Bear in mind I’m no fan of Hilary having layed her early on the basis that this wouldnt be a cruise. The logic on Edwards of course was that he might be the no risk alternative.
The other issue is Edwards, who actually has good though non winning support there as well. If he can keep it he’s not yet out.
There’s no value for me at least in Obama now. What I expected has occurred in terms of kneejerk reaction on the markets.
As for McCain, its do or die. Probably do. If he came home I’d clear well over a grand profit. If he loses I get my stake a little bit more back. Still though, by kicking out Romney it leaves the GOP with 3, McCain, Huckabee, Guiliani, assuming Fred doesn’t merely hang on in the hope of Mitt withdrawing first. I don’t think too many believe Huckabee can make which leaves..2. Head to head, McCain will murder Guiliani on his main call of ‘I was the biz at 9/11′ will the GOP want McCain enough? If not Guiliani becomes the default choice.
By the way the story is that Fred is skint.
One final query though. If Hilary looks like tanking…what alternative is there to Obama? None? Or Edwards if he hangs around?
It is clear that media sentiment is massively backing Obama this morning in the US. The Clinton team is disliked by a a fair part of the US media and they will use this as a chance to settle old scores. Also much as happened here with Gordon Brown the media tend to exagerate the positives or negatives depending on the prevailing wind and this will help Obama and hinder Clinton over the next few days. If the NH primary was in two weeks time Clinton would have much more ability to change tack diificult to do before Tuesday
133 - last sentence all wrong - meant to say that I can’t see him losing to McCain (or any other Rep for that matter).
125 Btw SeanT, last nite I said you saw things as a ‘voter’ and you corrected me, pointing out you see them as a novelist. Apologies. I was getting a bit tired and couldn’t find the right words.
I guess what I’m saying now is that Hillary is still favorite, just, but a wobbly favorite and I wouldn’t be backing her now until her price gets to evens.
That’s better, yes?
My offer of £100 to back Hillary at 0.9/1 was quickly snapped up this morning on Betfair.
118.
“I’ll stop the breakfast metaphor now.”
Before we become biliously sick of Billary - as the US obviously is becoming more and more……
Hillary told Bill at breakfast that her strongest support seems likely to go down for some time.
Bill says: “That’s good girl, I could only get Monica to last 30 seconds.”