Obama now favourite on Intrade
January 5th, 2008There’s been quite a lot of activity on the US election this morning and the main development has been a switch of favourites for the Democratic nomination on Intrade - the Irish based exchange which is focused very much on the US market. Intrade’s prices are presented on a scale of 0-100.
At 1420 the last trades on the market were Obama 51 and Clinton 48.
In the UK the Betfair price has tightened considerably on Obama and has eased on Hillary but the spouse of the ex-President is still the odds on favourite.
As far as I can see there has been no specific news - a poll or other development - which might have prompted the change. It is probably the result of more people absorbing the implications of Iowa and assessing the chances for both main contenders in New Hampshire next Tuesday.
This evening there’s to be a TV debate between the two plus John Edwards and this might provide the platform for Hillary to get back into the contest.
Mike Smithson
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Where can we see the TV debate?
Still waiting on some post-IA NH polls… the demographics of the state should favour Obama more than IA and his operation in the state is easily as extensive as Clinton’s… so we’re just going to have to wait till Sunday before the tracking polls give us anything like a half decent idea of the state of play in the state.
Apologies for profuse posting. Not used to having all this free time. I will go and do something useful in a minute.
But one last thing: somebody in the previous thread made a good point about rightwingers preferring Obama to Clinton.
I think this is true. I much prefer Obama to Hillary. Why? It’s not so much, I think, because Obama is more rightwing in his policies. It’s because:
1. Hilary is just the sort of preaching, leftwing, shrill, rich, obnoxious, bien pensant feminist harpy that particularly annoys rightwingers. She is Polly Toynbee from Chicago.
2. Because rightwingers are self conscious about being racist, even if they are not - because they are constantly accused of being racist by the left. By supporting Obama they can prove they are not racist, and feel good about themselves. While stiffing Hilary at the same time.
3. I suspect a lot of republicans still loathe Bill Clinton for getting away with what he did - Monica and all that - when, if a Republican had done that, with a cigar, in the Oval Office, he would have been eviscerated.
4. Rightwingers are also idealistic and, of course, patriotic and Obama offers a real chance to buff up America’s image.
5. Hope and optimism. Everyone wants a bit of that.
I think Obama might pick up serious numbers of indies and Republicans in the next primaries.
Bad pics of Clinton. Came across this post while reading a technical blog.
http://www.belshe.com/2008/01/05/why-the-world-hates-hillary-clinton/
seanT @ 3 — your number 3 is bonkers.
3 SeanT
That’s a sound and perceptive analysis.
Now when are you going to start betting?
4. Are you trying to tell me that if, say, Dubya had got his intern to go down on him, by Old Glory, in the Oval Office, and then used a cigar for.. well… you know what I mean…
Are you trying to tell me the left-feminist press would have defended him as many of them defended Clinton?
I actually quite like Bill Clinton. So he’s a “hard dog to keep on the porch”. So what. I think he was a pretty decent president, and what he does with his Cohibas is generally up to him.
However I despised the hypocrisy of the left on this issue, and I suspect - only suspect - that a lot of Republicans felt the same. And therefore I think that Hilary might suffer collateral damage, as rightwing voters exact their revenge.
5. I know, I know. However I get the feeling political betting involves a lot of time and thought, and I haven’t got the patience.
Congrats on yr earnings though!
Now I really am off to…. sweep the cupboard or something. Ta-ra.
3 Exactly right - she is Polly Toynbee!
There is also your number 5 - PtP probably remembers better than I (sorry Peter) but right wingers quite liked JFK as well; even today after all the stories of adultery, mafia and with Edward Kennedy as a sorry example to us all, there is still “That once there was a spot, For one brief, shining moment, That was known as Camelot”. We right wingers are suckers for lost heroes, soppy idealism and patriotism.
To an extent that’s why we like McCain, a real hero, patriotic, non-conformist, human - shame the GOP big wigs don’t feel the same and push a focus group driven machine politician like Romney.
3 - The ability of Obama to connect with Indies and Republicans is interesting.
On the face of it he’s an inexperienced, senator, who’s black, has admitted to recreational drug use with a voting record that on many issues is fairly liberal…so why the massive appeal?
I think it’s partly to do with the fact he’s hard to categorize…
Unlike any other presidential candidate for the last generation he can articulate a genuinely radical and inspiring political narrative that at the same time sounds plausible and so much of that has to be with his personal qualities.
How does an openly ambitious former first lady turned Senator who’s indulged (seemingly with great glee) in the partisan rancour of the past generation and excited fierce antipathy (with little love) combat the kind of pitch Obama can offer?
New Zogby poll has gone up. Zogby are more reliable than Suffolk (who brought out a poll yesterday). Apparently most of the fieldwork was done before Iowa, but not all. Nevertheless, Clinton’s lead over Obama has been cut by 2 points to 4. The full figures are C 32 O 28 and Edwards a distant 20. As John Zogby himself says, the poll only shows the beginning of an Iowa bounce for Obama, we’ll have more idea tomorrow.
For the Republicans the figures are McCain 32 Romney 30 and Huckabee 12 (up 2).
I should say, it’s a poll for NH, not for overall nomination.
Dont’t know if someone posted this article about Wyoming:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/01/romney_thompson_seek_wyoming_b.html
9. That article has some stirring rhetoric from Hillary Clinton.
‘Asked how disappointed she was about Iowa, Clinton said: “I was never a front-runner of any significance in Iowa. Iowa, I knew, was always going to be hard for me. I feel that we executed what we thought was the limit of what we could produce in Iowa under the circumstances that we were facing,” she told reporters at a cafe in Manchester.
Wow. Feel the Hope. Sense the Adrenalin. That really gets the blood racing, doesn’t it? -
“I feel that we executed what we thought was the limit of what we could produce in Iowa under the circumstances that we were facing.”
Eat crow, Shakespeare.
3: There’s a lot of truth in that analysis, I think. I’m the mirror image of it. I like solid, intellectual, earnest liberals like Polly Toynbee. I’m suspicious of anti-establishment populists who sound inspring without ever quite promising anything in particular. I liked Bill Clinton, but I like Hillary more.
So far, so reassuring for right-wing Obama backers. But I’m not sure they’ll stick with him when there’s a genuine right-winger up against him. He could well get lots of independents and Republicans in NH - but in November? I wonder.
Incidentally, I see Romney is plumbing the depths on Spreadfair - down to 1.8! That means if you bet £10 and he loses, you lose £18; if he wins the presidency, you win £232. Edwards is down to 0.4, along with Gore and *below* Ron Paul, which just has to be silly - yes, it’s hard to see him winning, but Gore’s not standing and Paul’s got no chance.
9. That suggests that McCain could be in just as much trouble as Clinton, though Romney’s loss in Iowa may halt his progress.
McCain is thrill ride material for those that have backed him and thats exactly why he’s worrying.
12: Hehe. Clinton does use the most clauses per sentence of any politician. According to some articles carrying this quote, she was insinuating a certain sexism amongst Iowans/ the other candidates when she talked about “the circumstances we were facing.” Don’t think that’s correct though, and I don’t think it’s going to help her to moan about it anyway!
David Herdsons post on last thread firms up something that has taken my eye in the last few days, particularly on the Democratic side that is thatr its worth hanging in.
If I were John Edwards I’d be doing all I can right now to hang in because in the event Hilary tanks you think her people will move en masse to Obama?
13. I would vote for Obama over any of the Rep candidates, including McCain and that libertarian dude.
America wants to change, and it wants to wash the stain of Iraq away.
In a sense the vague but stirring idealism of Obama is just what is required. People don’t want specifics, they want symbols and emotions. It’s like Reagan’s “morning in America” - that feelgood optimism, after the sadness of the Vietnam war and the 70s, was bought by a lot of Democrats as well as Republicans.
I accept that the views of a Cornish sex memoirist, typing in Fitzrovia, might not be necessarily identical to, say, steelworkers in Milwaukee.
9 - Zogby isnt that great, but it’s all we’ve got and they did ok with IA… but Zogby really isnt much of a pollster (Ramusen/Mason-Dixon are usally the real bench mark in terms of decent pollsters).
16 - Edwards folks suggesting he’ll exit the race should he do poorly in NH or SC and back Obama…
I’m not sure where the Clinton support would go if she vanished from the race (it wont happen) but I’d suggest that Obama as the more moderate candidate - also if she vanished Obama would be the front runner and as thats where most of her support has come from so i see no reason why Clinton backers would gravitate to the most leftwing candidate who’s currently third?
Coming from Minnesota this is one you may have to watch out for our Republican Governor - Tim Pawlenty - apparently a rising star for the Republicans and one of McCain’s biggest supporters , campaigning for him in Iowa and New Hampshire - and hints that he could be VP if McCain gets the nomination - and coming from a mid-west swing state that could be interesting for the big one in November 2008 - hard to see Minnesota staying blue if that happens - but then again us Minnesotans are a hardy bunch so we will see …
19 — Ben, where did you read that?
I think Obama looks overbought on all three main markets and is now dropping back slightly. For NH he traded high as 70 but last was just 65, 60 seems like a more sensible level to me.
18: I agree Ben. However, they are better than Suffolk at least! Interestingly, the last Rasmussen poll in NH was on 18 December and it put Clinton only 3 points ahead (compared to Suffolk’s 8 yesterday!). Mason-Dixon last did one way back on 6 December and also gave C a three-pointer.
Note that this is much closer than the poll average on Realclearpolitics which yesterday was showing a 6.5 point lead to Clinton but is now showing only 4.6. So NH was a tight race from the beginning if Rasmussen/ M-D are to be believed.
You could conclude that Obama doesn’t have much ground to make up and given his bounce following Iowa he’s looking v good for NH.
19: I agree again Ben! Edwards has actually had some fairly complementary things to say about Obama post-Iowa - talking about how Obama is after change as well etc.
23 John
What about America Research Group [ARG...or Aaaaarrrggghhh!!! as I like to call them]?
Didn’t they have Clinton 9 points ahead in Iowa? Once we know which way they’re pointing, we know it will go the other.
3. I hope she gets the nomination, just so I can see her go down to a Mondale-style wipeout, which I think is entirely possible.
The woman is bonkers - psychologically maladjusted. Nodding smugly at her own “bon mots”, waving to imaginary people in the crowd, the finger on the chin nonsense, the grimaces, gawks and glares, all scream “I am unbalanced…”…
Thank God the closest she’ll ever come to power was her elbowing her way to prominence during her husband’s ill-starred term….
There are some really stupid people on Intrade.
Someone just paid 30 for a combo on McCain v Obama.
23. worth noting as well that the realclearpoltics average poll in NH has been skewed for a while now by the nonsense Suffolk polls they are including.
25: PtP - Aaarrrgggghhh have been showing +4 to Clinton for the last two polls. The last one was on 3 January. Before that, around the time of the Rasmussen poll I was talking about (see 23), they were showing an almighty +14 lead.
28: yep take Sutton out (as I’d love to) and you get a +4 average.
Some more images of the nutjob…
http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/061128/061128_clinton_obama_hmed5p.hmedium.jpg
http://redstatepatriot.com/Hillary.JPG
http://www.thatpoliticalblog.com/serendipity/uploads/images/hillary06.jpg
29 Well maybe they will perform better in New Hampshire, if only because they know where it is. My guess is that they confused Iowa with Ohio and sent their pollsters to the wrong place. (Easily done…short name, lots of vowels in it.)
They did issue an apology, didn’t they?
http://www.ethanol360.com/hil.jpg
http://www.gop.com/images/050407Clinton.jpg
http://michellemalkin.cachefly.net/hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/hillary-clinton.jpg
30 ?
Suffolk? Sutton? Just exactly which part of the UK are we in here?
34: haha. Apologies. Clearly I know where I am just as well as Arrrghhh do..
One thing that worries me from a Labour Party point of view is the stark contrast between a President Obama and PM Brown. My brain hurts when I try and imagine a conversation between the pair. I think an Obama victory could subtley boost Cameron. Brits could easily be forgiven for thinking ‘I fancy a bit of that sunny optimism’.
Just noticed that on Paddy Power you can back Huckabee to win Michigan at 9/2. Given that the last poll had him just 2% behind Romney (and that Michigan has the sort of lower middle class Republicans that Huck’s pitch is really aimed at) this seems very good value to me…
Right now this IS serious news. Front page of Drudgereport says there is a new Rasmussen poll out. Figures are 37 Obama Clinton 27. That’s all he’s has got at the moment…
But I could imagine PM Miliband working well with President Obama.
19 – It was linked on real clear politics… wouldn’t surprise me at all, unlikely that Edwards will do well in NH, he’ll probably hold out for a decent showing in either NV or SC… when those don’t come (which they almost certainly wont) he’ll probably drop out and he’s most likely to endorse Obama as the “change” candidate (you don’t blast the “establishment” and describe the Iowa result as a rejection of the “status-quo” and then go and endorse Clinton
).
23 – They are all we have after all (well there is ARG who were woeful in their Iowa polling and polling in general – as Peter said)… Zogby had Clinton with a 4 point lead (32 to 28) today, but the field work was pre-IA.
24 – To a certain extent they after the same mantle of “change candidate” but Obama is so far ahead of Edwards on that… sooner or later Edwards will bow out, if (still a big if) Obama pulls off a win in NH, it’ll be interesting to see if Edwards pulled out before SC or waited for maximum impact pre-super Tuesday.
39 - Nah… Obama, Cameron works far better… Obama/Brown would just be funny!
36. I thought just the same thing. Hilary and Gordon go together well - two tedious wonks wonking away.
But Obama and Brown? Ghastly. Chalk and blue cheese. Even Obama and Miliband isn’t that good, the earnest Milipede with the charismatic prez…. hmmm…
For some reason Cameron and Obama go together much better. Posh Tories and idealistic Democrats have a history of synergy. If both are young, all the better.
39. I fear as much!
38. its true, on the rasmussen front page now
also they have mccain leading by 5 from romney with huckabee down in 4th behind paul…
39 or a Cameron or a Balls (as if!) - the 1960’s generation. It’s the point I was making earlier about generational change; Hilary Clinton & Gordon Brown are the fag end of the WWII baby boom politicians. Its time for the next generation to have a go.
1: I’ve found out the debate is on ABC, but I don’t think you can get it online. However it is being live blogged here.
I’ve just read the Rasmussen article on Obama and it makes for compelling reading. Check out this section:
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.
Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
One interesting part of that Rasmussen poll is the certainty to vote figures among the candidates’ supporters:
‘Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.’
To me that says that a good number of Edwards supporters could vote tactically elsewhere - that’s got to benefit Obama surely? Plus Obama is seen as the most likely Democrat to win the Presidency - surely that’s got to be their main concerm.
Interesting…
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59540
Obama is getting closer and closer to Hillary on Betfair…
Christ..ramp me up….
Obama now favourite!
50 You are not Christ. You are a very naughty boy.
You were warned, Yokel….
Willhill still offering 4/6 Obama in NH. After this Rasmussen poll, you have to hurry to get in.
I bet on McCain at 20-1 months ago. I’m pissed off now because I took my stake back off at 18-1 when he showed no signs of moving in. Pity. I bet on him because I listened to him, and he sounded intelligent, well-informed, reasonable - and thank god nothing like dubya.
Ah well. Next time I may be a bit more patient.
Who were the early frontrunners on betfair? Condi looked plausible at one time, didn’t she? And Colin Powell?
Likewise on Intrade.
If Obama wins NH by anything like 10 points then Hillary is surely finished. His momentum will then be huge. It would need major, major revelations to stop him.
As far as I know he stopped doing “hooter” 20 years back. Crisis for the Clintons!
Oh my, Hilary is melting on Intrade, guess they saw the poll.
53. Yes and Paddy Power have cut him from 4/6 to 4/7 for New Hampshire too.
Re. 3, 1. ‘She is Polly Toynbee from Chicago’. It could be worse - she could be Madeleine Bunting from Chicago.
Re. part 3 of 3, not if there’d been a Republican Congress. Yes, Nixon’s own party turned on him towards the end during Watergate, but it’s unlikely that the Congressional investigations would have started in the first place had there been a Republican Congress instead of a Democrat one.
Re. 26, not sure about unbalanced, but she’s very odd, particularly in her gruesome attempts to be human. The YouTube ‘in it to win it’ announcement and the truly awful Christmas ‘where did I put universal healthcare? oh there it is’ reminded me of Nixon asking an injured police motorcycle outrider ‘Do you enjoy the work?’. Iowa really hurt her when the gamble was that her lack of likeability (probably more important in the US than over here) would be offset by a feeling of inevitability.
There’s a Republican candidates’ debate on Fox News tomorrow, 8pm (though I’m not sure whether that’s US time or UK time).
In terms of the GOP nomination, i can’t help but think that the biggest benefactor from Huckabee’s win is Giuliani, if McCain wins NH it splits the early primary momentum two ways and removes Romney, this leaves Giuliani as the establishment candidate with a lead in the big states and his new rivals lacking in terms of trad. conservatism (McCain) and fiscal conservatism (Huckabee).
42- seanT- apologies for the outburst yesterday evening. I blame my work colleague who during a customary after Friday work’s drink mistakenly bought me stella. 3 pints of the stuff. I think my grammar and spelling was a bit of a giveaway about my state of mind.
Casino Royale- thanks for pointing out my bad behaviour so nicely.
Tonight I am looking forward to a nice bottle of Borolo- a whole lot more civilised.
52. Warned about her being 4 points ahead in the latest poll?
Sure I knew that. That’s been her lead for the last week or so.
The idea that Hilary is anything else other than a polarising figure, even within her own party is well known.
The key question is can she get enough to go with her in NH the answer is yes she can. No idea if she will but she is not dead and buried yet.
52. PtP. Do you still rate Hillary as 5/4 favourite?
I’m not teasing - genuine question.
Can I just say what fun this all is. It’s like having British elections only on a more dramatic scale, plus if the wrong person gets in, you are reassured they can’t immediately screw up the UK.
61. Apology accepted Tyson. I suspected something was up, anyway - you were not your usual goodnatured if idiotic self. Also you were banging on about something quite obscure. And, as you say, you spelled xenophobic “zenophopohbic”.
I figured you were having a turn which I was didn’t respond in kind..
60. Giuliani struggles to be a traditional conservative as much as McCain does. I think if he were nominated there is a serious possibility of an independent from the religous right stepping into the election and splitting the republican vote.
The Democratic race is over; Rasmussen has a poll out showing Obama up ten points in New Hampshire, all taken yesterday.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary
Interestingly, their Republican numbers showed a relatively small lead for McCain, certainly not enough for him to capitalize on given that he won NH by a wider margin in 2000. They also have Giuliani in fifth, Huckabee in fourth and Paul in third. (I just hope the Paulites don’t descend on NJ for our primary; a futile wish, I think.)
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary
63 SeanT
No. I make her 5/4 against, and I would need at least that price to back her now. Events are moving fast.
Fun, isn’t it.
Btw, pleased to note the forgiving attitude. We need good posters on here and Tyson’s one of the best.
65. That, on the other hand, is dead and buried….
The worry now is John McCain’s position. Romney is still there.
49. I’m an amateur, but the Betfair market on Dem candidates seems contradictory, compared to the market on the next prez.
Obama is now favourite to win the Democrat nomination, but Hilary is still, just, favourite to be the next prez.
Shurely shome mishtake? Maybe there is some “value”* here?
*not sure what this means
Bear in mind the Rasmussen poll has a MOE of 5% (and the GOP gave Ron Paul a suspisciously high number). NH could be a lot closer than people think.
62 Yokel, please, I take your point but I’d hate to see you committing Hillarycide.
With Obama shooting ahead in NH thanks to the IA result… who was it who was telling me that “momentum” in the primary contest wouldnt mean anything or was at the very least being overplayed as a factor?
Sorry i wasnt taking names at the time…
68 Indeed, SeanT. There is value there, and I’m going to take it.
Obama must go fav. for Pres on Betfair tonight, surely.
70. Its one state, if I don’t pull it it of I don’t pull it off but backing Obama at the odds on he seems to be at the moment is a waste for me as a new entrant.
71. Me, but I won’t go thrpough all the things I’ve called correctly so far in response…
Re. 64, Sam Brownback?
73. Bollox. I knew it. I just wish I knew how to operate in this market. But every time someone tries to explain how to spread bet, my head starts to hurt.
I might experiment with a pretendy bet, see how it goes.
65: hmm I’m not sure it’s all over. It’s one poll. Others tomorrow will give us a clearer picture - as someone pointed out earlier, the most reliable US polls have been shown to be the ones conducted over several days not just one day.
We won’t know it’s all over unless Obama trashes Hillary on Tuesday. I am backing Obama majorly of course… but as a friend of mine just said, beware of the dead cat bounce. Strange phrase I know..
Clinton 36 Obama 29 Edwards 13
http://www.suffolk.edu/25998.html
75 - With the best will in the world, when it comes to domestic politics I’m as average a prognosticator as anyone here… when it comes to the US I know my stuff.
Back on the subject of the Ramusen poll, it’s post IA (which is great - as we’re relying on tracking from Zogby) but it should be remembered this is just one snap poll… still a little while till we get a firm idea about NH but a big bounce for Obama post-IA in a state like NH doesnt surprise me one bit.
63- even that winky smile is endearing tonight seanT. Strong lager should be banned, responsible for a whole host of horrible sins. “In vino veritus” should be replaced by “in stella terribulus.”
I am really pleased though to see you championing Obama so enthusiastically.
66-Peter the Punter- many thanks, and the compliment is returned 10 fold. Now off to enjoy the Barolo with my wife, and new dog called Trotsky.
First delegate in the Wyoming caucus goes to Mitt Romney…..
79: People may get bored of me repeating myself, but Suffolk aren’t hugely reliable.
79. Not so good for Obama. Though he is on the march - 4 points up.
Question is, will any victory be good enough for Hilary to get her back on track? Or does she need a decisive win?
I suspect any kind of victory will do. She is in crisis.
81. You won’t be so pleased if he gets a dose of the trots on your carpet….
83. News to me! Who are Suffolk? Why are they unreliable? Which are the best/most reliable pollsters in the US?
81 Love the dog’s name, Tyson. A very good pick, in fact.
Expect near constant sitings of Bill Clinton over the next few days - those had been limited till now because of the danger of backseat driver perceptions, but with NH in danger needs must.
I too am quite worried about McCain. He’s national favourite at present, but if he loses in NH then it’s back to being a 4-way race, and Romney could easily win in Nevada too as a result. McCain’s odds would collpse a fair bit. On the other hand, if McCain wins NH they’ll improve, but not greatly because it’s still a solid 3-way nationally - he might go from 3.0 to 2.5 with a narrow win, perhaps 2.0 with a thumping win (at least temporarily, as people overreact).
Small profit, or potential for a big loss. Reluctantly I’m going to sell McCain.
86 Important to know your posters in the US, SeanT. Suffolk are pretty indifferent. Rasmussen are good, Zogby Ok, and ARG are arrrggghhhh!
To clarify, I mean lay off and take guaranteed profits, not flat sell. McCain is favourite and rightly so, but it’s just a dangerous position for me.
87. Very drole PtP, very drole…
86. Suffolk is a university in New Hampshire. They have a poor reputation in polling, as do the vast majority of universities. Generally, the rule is to ignore university polls with only a handful of exceptions: University of New Hampshire in New Hampshire is quite good, Quinnipiac College does well in the New York City area, etc.
83 - Uni poll (nuff said - very poor record traditionally), Also is not that polls field work most/partly pre-IA.
92. And that Suffolk poll is a two-day tracking poll. Given that their results yesterday had Clinton leading by 17, to have cut her lead to 7 in a single day Obama must have done very well in post-Iowa polling.
90. I’ve bcome worried about McCain over the last week to 10 days overall though I still fancied him to take NH I just felt maybe there was a hurdle too many for him as regards the nomination. Whilst I’m all green on him the temptation to lay off a bit is there.
86 The other thing to say about Suffolk is that they gave Hillary a 12 point lead in NH two days ago and a 16 point lead on the 2nd. Even taking the 12 point one, that’s double the lead anyone else gave Hillary. They consistently rate her off the scale!
Rasmussen has much of Obama’s NH lead down to independents rather than Democrats: “In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.”
Obama’s Iowa win too was based on his lead among independent voters, as well as transfers from the “non-viable” candidates.
Clinton needs to shore up her standing amongst Democrats nationwide; no easy task after two Obama wins.
81 O/T Tyson - Hope your cat has adapted to the, probably bouncy newcomer. The cat I spoke of (who dealt with puppy as a pseudo-kitten) unfortunately died in her sleep a couple of days back.
Tyson,as a real ale buff,I forgive you for your Stella moment-but any repetition of drinking that appalling chavjuice should be severely admonished,from across the political spectrum:lol:
Curious that many more than one in 20 British polls are considered ‘rogue’ on here until others back them up, which they often do, but as soon as an American one produces a remarkable lead for one candidate (who is admittedly, probably in front in NH), it’s taken as gospel. Not that that won’t shift sentiment in the betting.
82. Hi Matthew. Did you get on Obama at 50-1?
Thanks, guys, for the info on US pollsters.
So I should take more note of Rasmussen. Gotcha.
PtP. When you say ARG are AAAAARGH is that AAAARGH! bad or AAAARGH good?
89.
Actually most pollsters use pretty much the same methodology (telephone poll, all likely voters). The only differences are that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are automated and some pollsters are a bit tighter in terms of what they count as a likely voter. The only pollsters to treat with extreme caution are those which use weighing/internet polling (internet penetration is much lower in the US) or try to augment their results by making dodgy assumptions about undecideds (eg the last Gallup poll in 2004). The sample size in US polls is also quite a bit smaller than here (although the critical sample size of British pollsters is smaller that the headline sample size).
The belief that ARG is somehow a ‘dodgy’ polling company is pretty unfounded. The only mistake that they made for the GOP this time around was to underestimate Huckabee’s lead and put Ron Paul behind Giuliani. Even on the Democrat side they weren’t too bad if you take into account the MOE and rememeber that they were polling first preferences.
The only people that I would completely avoid would be British firms like YouGov and that’s only because there are usually enough similar polls on election day to enable one to be a bit picky.
102 SeanT
You know that famous painting by Edvard Munch? It’s aaaargh in that sense.
104, If you saw a print of that thing on sale would you buy it for your hallway? Its horrible..
I prefer the ones of those dogs playing pool and cards..much better….
100 - I think the difference is this poll is Ramusen (a decent firm) and its the first poll to be conducted after IA… still provisional i’ll grant you but very important never the less.
105 Makes a good Christmas present for people you don’t like though.
No, but since I put a lot on McCain at an average of 6.48 (equivalent to decimal odds of 15.43) I can’t say that I am complaining! I also made money from shorting Paul, Romney in specific at their peaks (though I’ve since cashed some of those profits in).
Has anybody got the Rasmussen breakdowns? I can’t get through to the site.
Sorry, I was referring to 101.
104. Funnily enough, I saw that very painting just the other day in Oslo.
Munch was a brilliant painter. There is a whole room of masterpieces in that gallery. Highly recommended. Though a hamburger and chips in Oslo is £15.
Interesting reading the US blogs like Dailykos. I never realised the Dems were so divided in themselves - calling each other terrible names. “Hilary is a bitch”. “Obama rhymes with Osama”.
Yikes.
If anything it just adds to the appeal of Obama. He offers a chance to draw a line under all that Clinton-Bush hanging-chad bollox.
Let’s all move on.
109 Mike: I posted some of the breakdown stuff on Obama back in 46. I imagine the reason you can’t get through is because the site has been overloaded with visitors from drudge and other sites..
111. DailyKos especially is a stronghold of Edwards support, and not known for being particularly civil (better than some, such as DU or RedState, but that says little).
OT Mikhail Saakashvili appears to have won Georgian election with just over 50% - so may not need a second round. Allegations of rigging…
113 - Du is a truly dire site… so much animosity and aggression, if your not at the very least a hardened left-winger avoid!
High rates of independent voting in NH should favour Ron Paul on the Republican side, though it is hard to see him winning. Paul has been excluded from the television debates by the good people at Fox.
Interestingly but irrelevantly, Ron Paul opposes capital punishment.
http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion/column/264926
Pretty much everyone else can’t get enough of it, aside perhaps from the change candidate:
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, Clinton’s closest competitor for the Democratic nod, is embarrassingly hypocritical on the issue. With death penalty abolitionists, he cites his work as an Illinois state senator to reform that state’s capital punishment system. With death penalty supporters, he says allowing executions is a way of saying that “the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage.”
It seems to me that the Democrats could virtually sew up the Presidential election by doing one simple thing: announce that Clinton and Obana would run as a “Dream Ticket”,
It would prevent any risk of internal warfare, and would settle the nomination nearly a year early. It would give a free run for 10 months to slaughter the front runners in the GOP contest.
I claim no copyright on this idea, and you’re all free to bet on it.
Ted - sorry to hear that - sometimes it’s better than something slow, but always upsetting.
117 - A Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket wouldnt work… no geographic, personal or political balance to it, more to the point Clinton wouldnt play second fiddle to Obama nor would Obama to Clinton… if it’s Clinton it could well be Richardson as Veep, if it’s Obama I’d not be surprised by a southern governor (Easley from NC or Bredensen from TN perhaps).
117 “I claim no copyright on this idea, and you’re all free to bet on it.”
You can back that one with me, Bitten!
117. Also, Barack Obama is now quite likely to win outright, so he’s hardly gonna aim for Veep.
Apart from that, good idea.
111 “Though a hamburger and chips in Oslo is £15.”
I once went to Oslo for lunch (I had four meals in four European countries that day) and had the reindeer. It was just before Christmas and it came served with a single cherry tomato. “Rudolph is unavailable for Santa this year…” said the waiter. Who says Norwegians have no sense of humour?
Rasmussen for Mike Smithson @ 101
From the one page I can get (take care to distinguish polling from markets data):
Survey of 510 Likely Dem Primary Voters
January 4, 2008
New Hampshire Dem Primary
Barack Obama 37%
Hillary Clinton 27%
John Edwards 19%
Bill Richardson 8%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
Mike Gravel 1%
Latest Results From Rasmussen Markets
Obm Clint
Current 72.0 25.0
1/4/08 67.0 35.1
1/3/08 45.0 58
1/2/08 47.9 57.5
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.
In a pre-Christmas poll, Clinton led Obama by three. In the poll before that, Obama led Clinton by three.
Clinton still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll but Rasmussen Markets data suggests the race for the nomination is essentially even.
In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents.
Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton.
Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.
Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton.
Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in New Hampshire say that Health Care is a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-three percent (73%) say the same about the economy, 70% attach the same importance to Government Ethics and Corruptions, and 69% say Iraq is a Very Important voting issue.
Rasmussen Markets data at 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that Barack Obama has a 65% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton is given a 37% chance of winning (current numbers: Obama %, Clinton %. At that same time, Clinton and Obama were each given a 50% chance of ultimately winning the nomination (current numbers: Obama 51.0 %, Clinton 47.7 %.
These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders “buy and sell” candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Rasmussen Reports will be releasing new polling data on the New Hampshire race each morning until Tuesday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary
119. Is Edwards as VP to Obama a non starter then?
I note on Betfair that Obama is now narrow favourite to win the presidency itself. So the earlier “value” has now gone, presumably into Peter the Punter’s Welcoming Pocket.
117, 119. There’s no need to do it either. Hillary supporters aren’t anti-Obama like Edwards and Obama supporters are anti-Hillary. Obama could easily united the Democrat party.
I would like to clear up one misunderstanding that seems to exist on here: that Obama has a more “right-wing” voting record than Clinton. Clinton has been trying to paint herself as a moderate ever since she got into the Senate and has thus voted “right-wing” numerous times (this was why she voted for the Iraq war). Obama, socially, is generally consistently liberal in his votes. The reason he seems more of a centrist is that he often tries to get legislation passed that both sides can agree on when he’s the author. He also doesn’t deliberately fight a war of rhetoric like people like Clinton have.
The problem for the Republicans, is that their own methods are coming back to haunt them. They’ve put jingoistic patriotism and God-reverence above policy argument to bash the Democrats, which means a Democrat can now win over large numbers of Republicans by being patriotic and Christian. Obama will be in a position to pass a lot of liberal legislation. (Liberal in the US sense rather than the European one - it would be centrist by British standards.)
There has to be an outside chance of Clinton coming third again in NH, particularly if the Obama/Edwards camps adopt the same strategy as they did previously. In Iowa, Obama’s people seemed to know precisely how many votes to switch to Edwards to make it happen…
Question: if Obama wins big in New Hampshire and has the momentum which makes him look inevitable as the candidate - then the Republicans have the luxury of selecting the best candidate to run against him. So - who do the Republicans choose as the best candidate against Obama? Do they go for young and telegenic (which must favour Romney) - or do they go for age and experience (Guliani/McCain)? I personally don’t think Obama can be beaten by any Republican in 2008 - but they have to try, especially as so many Republican-held Senate seats are in play in November too.
128. Romney would just be a disaster. Said it before, say it again: Americans simply won’t vote for a Mormon. I’m not even sure that many Republicans will vote for a Mormon (evangelicals think Mormons are like diabolists).
McCain must be the best bet for Reps to do decently. Huckabee/Giuliani joint 2nd….
But as you say, the Dems are gonna win big anyway, especially if they choose Obama, judging by those Iowa turnouts.
BTW Is tonight’s TV debate not online? What time is it? Sounds like perfect post-pub viewing - shame if it’s not available this side of the pond.
125
Remind me to buy you a drink at the PB Party, SeanT.
128. There is always the possibility that Republicans realise they’re not going to win and thus seek to maintain ideological purity. This would work against McCain. I think on hald of the GOP might think Huckabee would be good against Obama: he equally has the “change” mandate and the charisma.
In my view, the only way the GOP can win the Presidency now is to have Giuliani as candidate and some terrorist attack occurs just before the election.
119 - Probably, Edwards is nothing if he’s not the nominee… Obama’s main weakness is “experience” Edwards in no way address that, in addition Edwards is on the hard left of the Democratic Party (nowadays at least) so he’s a poor fit…
The tick for Obama (should he win) would be a veep candidate that addressed his lack of Washington experience while also complementing his “change” narrative, for that reason I’d expect a governor to be chosen or perhaps a former Senator like Nunn or (Bob) Kerrey (but that’s still a good way in the future).
128 Romney has about as much charm as that Munch painting we were talking about earlier, Mark.
If it’s Obama for the Democrats, McCain has to be the best call for the Republicans.
127 - NH is a primary not a caucus, so you cant switch your support I’m afraid… as it is it’d be very hard for Clinton to wind up in third in New Hampshire, as it is she could lose by a very clear margin (she could also still pull off a win) but i cant see that translating into a good showing for Edwards (even in ‘04 he didnt gain very much traction in NH).
131. The party is around the 25th, innit?
Sadly I will be out of the country. Well, not that sadly, I will be in sunny Thailand…
But we must have a bevvy at some point in the near future. I’m doing a lot of travelling Jan/Feb but sticking around more in March.
127. That’s because they were standing in the opposite corner of the room at every caucus Rod…
129: It’s on ABC - I checked their site and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be online. They are live blogging it (see 46 above) - though it’s not quite the same!
Ladbrokes and Paddy Power now 1/3 on Obama for New Hampshire. Hills cut to 1/2. Stunning.
137. Curses. Would have gone down nicely with a post-pint pizza. Maybe it will be online after the event.
Can’t believe I’m so hooked on this! Better than the footy.
132 - I’m speaking out of my pocket, but Sen. James Webb would make an ideal running mate for Obama from the electoral point of view. Former Republican turned populist, from the south, hard-hitting with millitary and cabinet experience (and a son in the army).
He could be Obama’s partisan attack dog while Obama took the high road. I dislike Webb because (amoung other things) of his dubious views on the civil war and his paleo-conservative leanings but this could paradoxically accentuate Obama’s ‘post partisan’ image (and if the ticket won, Gov Tim Kaine would temporarily appoint Webb’s sucessor (presumably Kaine himself).
Re. 119, or if he wants to underscore his opposition to the Iraq war, and make an eye-catching choice, how about Senator Jim Webb? Having a former Reagan Cabinet member as his running mate would also fit in neatly with Obama’s talk of overcoming the divide between blue states and red states. And, as with Tennessee (won by Clinton in 92 and 96), Virginia is winnable for the Democrats.
Hillary losing friends fast…
http://pajamasmedia.com/xpress/ronrosenbaum/2008/01/05/disendorsing_hillary_the_one_r.php
138 Stunning indeed, Henry. Sidney working on a Saturday! Whatever next.
123
It’s all about momentum in American political sport. Rasmussen is not perfect but his poll will show movement, and Clinton is really going to be up against it in NH.
Americans, in my experience, don’t behave like the British and have feelings for under-dogs, they go in for the kill and love to be on the winning side. The nature of Obama’s Iowa victory and the nature of his candidacy gives a much-needed boost to The American Dream.
Change, so clever for the US in 2008 after years of misery with the Frat Boy in the White House.
Malcolm
135 March is of course Cheltenham Festival time, but why not come along for a day? Maybe you could persuade your publisher to commission an anthropological study of The Racing Tribe?
Btw, don’t you do Thailand rather a lot? Your publisher is a bit gullible, no?
140 - I think i remember you suggesting Webb before… everything but his lack of legislative experiance would fit, but i do wonder if that alone would be too big a hurdle with Obama at the top of the ticket… but other than that he’d make an excellent veep (if only he had four more years in the Senate!
)… also interesting to note that VA Gov Kaine is an Obama backer (he was all over Iowa in the last few weeks).
143. I just got your Trotsky joke, PtP. “A nice pick”. That’s rather good.
I have a cold, hence my startling IQ drop.
140 I believe that Webb was appointed to a (Navy?) post by Ronald Reagan, so that would also help mollify some of the Reagan Democrats and who have been lost while Bush played the “war President” card - and need to return to get a Democratic candidate over the line in November.
146. Webb is due in Belfast shortly, I’ll; ask him is he’s interested………..
My own feeling is that we might be looking for too much change with the VP ticket. I think Richardson might get the nod: experienced in foreign policyy; a Washington player without having been in the Senate, yet sufficiently anonymous that his previous wouldn’t undermine the message of change. I also don’t think that him being Hispanic would be a handicap: he is called Bill Richardson after all, and wouldn’t frighten the horses.
A black president and a Hispanic VP? Now there’s an idea…
148 - Take a look at the midterm results I’d say that the Reagan Dems are pretty much back with the Democrats… then again the DNC had been working at it for years.
147 It’s the way I tell ‘em.
145. Why should my publisher care where I travel?
I love Thailand (like you?!). The food, the climate, the people, the ladies, the food, the cheap 5 star hotels.
Got friends out there too. And the football is live. And you can buy the British papers the day they come out. Paradise.
I find it the perfect place to write. All my needs are taken care of and I just have to open the laptop. And seeing as I now have to write a 400 page thriller BY JULY, a trip to Thailand is the perfect way to avoid the English winter.
Apart from that I have no reason to go there!
Cheltenham Festival sounds rather fun though. I’ve always wanted to go. Will bear yr generous invite in mind.
Now I must to Soho, for the drinking of pints. Sawadee kap, old bean.
What a fine way to spend the evening this is - quietly betting on the basis of the Rasmussen poll and cleaning up a couple of hundred quid in the process. All it needs to make it perfect is for Villa to score and StJohn to do a streak on the pitch.
Can’t see Villa scoring though.
Sawadee, SeanT.