Gallup shows Obama with a 13% NH lead
January 7th, 2008
McCain has 4% margin in GOP race
There have been more big moves on the Democratic candidate markets following a new poll by Gallup for USA TODAY that shows that Hillary Clinton is 13% behind amongst New Hampshire voters who will take part in the first full primary of the 2008 White House Race, in New Hampshire, tomorrow.
Obama is at 41% with Clinton on 28% and Edwards on 19%. This is by far the biggest margin that we have seen in any NH poll since last Thursday’s Iowa Caucus propelled the junior Senator from Illinois into the favourite slot.
If there is a Clinton deficit on this scale in tomorrow’s election then it becomes hard to see how Hillary can recover - but it would be dangerous to write her off. As has been said many times she is a formidable politician.
In the Republican race the poll has McCain on 34% with Romney at 30% and Huckabee 13%, with Paul and Giuliani on 8% each.
In the betting Obama has now tightened to 0.63/1 to get the nomination with Hillary now having drifted to 1.54/1. On Intrade the 0300GMT prices were (out of 100) Obama 63.8 and Clinton 36.1.
A note to those whose prime interest is UK politics: There will be a UK-based thread either later today or tomorrow morning on the Times Populus January survey which should be out. In December it was C40-L32-LD16 and the big questions are whether having a new leader will impact on the Lib Dem share and whether Populus will follow the trend of the fall-off in the Tory lead, reported by ICM and the last YouGov surveys.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, do you think that the US presidential nomination race, on either side, will have any impact upon British politics in the short-term (next few months) and mid-term (through to Nov 2008)?
The debate:
I liked Huck, but it’s clear that others didn’t! Fred, well, was he there? Rudy was nice, but not an exciting performance. Mitt, he’s was OK, it’s clear that Republicans think he won the debate(at least Luntz focus group said so). But I really liked McCain, he was great, funny, answered the questions, talked about change and experience, and he certainly knows how to get independents vote!
One thing that shows Obama momentum is that most of the Republicans in Luntz focus group thought he was going to be the Democratic nominee.(but many also thought that Romney could beat him in an election)
And Luntz was on TV saying that Romney received a very positive reaction during most of the debate, especially when he said that Washington was broken. I need some answers: did Romney really win this debate? I mean, he certainly won some Republicans votes, but did he win independents vote? And if not, did McCain get them?
Sorry for the long post!
2. Seems clear from above Romney is making play for at least share of Independents. Which might hurt both McCain and Obama, which would be AOK for Mitt.
Guessing that part of Mitt’s strategy is to remind NH Republicans that he’s the same guy they’ve been seeing for years as only recently retired former Gov of Mass. A good strategy for waverers, esp, those for whom Huckaberry is too religous, McCain to insurgent, Giuliani too liberal (plus Yankee in the bad way, as in the former Curse of the Bambino), Paul too flakey and Thompson too standpat.
re 1. I have to say that the elections are having much less impact here than I would have expected. On Friday lunchtime there was hardly a mention on the BBC domestic bulletins and what coverage there has been has been restricted to the “heavies”. Yesterday’s Observer carried four pages on an interview with Brown in which he said almost nothing and just a half page feature on Iowa.
If Obama gets it then there’ll be a lot of talk of generational change. Both the Tories and Lib Dems now have leaders who are younger than Barack while Brown is in his late 50s. There will also be unfavourable comparisons between Brown’s skills as an orator and those of Obama.
If Clinton pulls through then the “action not words” rhetoric that she used on Saturday against Obama will be used to contrast what Brown is doing compared with Cameron. The main Labour attack has been that of “style over substance” and this will reinforce it.
4. Strikes me that the Labour Party and Gordon Brown lost a tremendous opportunity by NOT holding a genuine leadership race and debate.
Think GB would have won such a contest. BUT not without a struggle, which would have helped Labour and him, provided he survived it. And if he didn’t then all the better for the party unless they picked a total loser, which while not impossible was hardly inevitable.
OBAMA v HILARY
Will say this for Sen. Clinton - is VERY hard to think of ANY candidate from either party in any era who would be standing up HALF as well today as she is to the Obama Wave or perhaps Tsunami is more like it.
Though personally would take the high & low post-Iowa NH numbers and split the difference. Above that good news for Obama, below good for Clinton.
Looking down the pike wil be interesting to see how long it takes for “buyers remourse” to set in, and how long it lingers. Back in 1992 Democrats were in considerable funk about Clinton for many months after he effectively clinched the nomination, thanks to Gennifer Flowers mostly but not entirely. Wasn’t until the eve of the convention when Perot dropped out (temporarily) citing a “restored” Democratic Party and Clinton’s actually acceptance speech that Bill really sealed the deal with Democrats, let alone Independents and Republican crossovers.
OK, my work here is done. No more decent odds on Obama for NH to be found anywhere, and all my betting accounts are empty (all 57 of them!)
By the way, if any one wants some free money, you can back Obama at 1.35 at Unibet, then lay at betfair at 1.17. After commission, that’s a 14% profit, and there’s 500 quid there to be getting on with (and you could lay higher for more at slightly lower profit, someone would take it no problem). Would have done this myself but betfair account is cleaned out.
G’night all, thanks for all the useful info/links.
Edwards and his Trippi (in more ways than one?) brain trust are strategizing that Clinton has a glass jaw: that her campaign will crack BEFORE Edwards himself is squeezed between a rock and hard place.
Presume there are some interesting betting options here from several angles.
Personally think Edwards will be flattened before Clinton implodes. Partly because she’s a tough cookie, but mainly because there’s not much call for TWO change candidates, and Hilary needs a miracle before she can talk herself into THAT position, thanks to her own flawed strategy and message.
Which doesn’t leave much oxygen for Edwards UNLESS Obama takes a severe tumble and pretty soon.
This is consistent with Rasmussen which gives Obama a 12 point lead in NH but whose daily tracking poll still shows Clinton with a nationwide lead amongst Democrats.
Obama leads amongst independents who are a huge voting bloc in the New Hampshire primary. Clinton leads amongst Democrats. Nothing new here.
9. We’re talking New Hampshire registered Democrats here. Which is a demographic that is somewhat older, more blue collar, less educated, more Catholic and “old ethnic” (Irish, Italian, French Canadian) and more socially conservative than registered Democrats in most upcoming primary and caucus states.
This is partly due to specific demographics of upper New England BUT also because most primaries coming up are NOT “open” like New Hampshire meaning Independents can participate, but instead “closed” meaning only registered party members may cast a ballot. Which encourages folks who would be “Undeclared” in New Hampshire to registere as either D or R.
All of the above factors would tend to favor Clinton.
10. That is, favor her with registered Democrats in New Hampshire compare to registered Democrats in states. On the other hand, Independents cannot particapate in may later contests. Back to first hand, most of the center-left “Independents” are likely to be registered Democrats in those states OR be willing to switch registration in order to vote for Obama (as some Republicans have been doing in New Hampshire).
Just thinking some more about what could conceivably stop Obama: Yesterday Nick Palmer suggested that people might get sick of the whole abstract “change” theme and start demanding some specifics, but I can’t see that happening in this case; Obama _is_ the change - he doesn’t need any specific policy innovations.
What I think would be more likely to upset Obama would be a gaffe, followed by a worse-than-expected performance in a primary or a couple of polls. If Obama is thought to have said something embarassing, the Clinton campaign should be able to tie it in with their whole experience narrative and might be able to persuade Democrats to cling tighter to nurse. With a month until Super Tuesday, the media might get bored with the “Obama walks on water” story and want to make a bit more of a horserace of it.
That said, I don’t think it’s going to happen; For the media, gloating as Hillary Clinton’s campaign crumbles away could go on for months before it got old.
There is a meeting of “centrist” politicians today at the University of Oklahoma. Boren, Nunn, Hagel etc - urging “bipartisan governance”. If Bloomberg were still to launch a Presidential race for a third party, then this is the likely nucleus of his heavy-hitting support. Just one to keep an eye on…
I agree that writing Hilary off would be foolish, but at the same time Obama has moved into this position without really breaking into a sweat - if he moves into overdrive, Hilary really could be finished off.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Edmund,
“What I think would be more likely to upset Obama would be a gaffe, followed by a worse-than-expected performance in a primary or a couple of polls.
Which is why I think he had a relatively lack-lustre debate last time out. His advisers are telling him to play it safe for the moment. Obama could ride out the odd gaffe as the Democratic Party candidate. But maybe not before.
One sobering thought for a Monday morning though. Read a piece yesterday which was talking to blacks about their thoughts on a black Presidential candidate. One guy said he really hoped Obama wouldn’t have run - he loved the guy and his fear was that Obama would be assassinated before he could ever be elected….
It’s worth bearing in mind that the turnout of independent voters will define both races… if they break as strongly for Obama and the Dem contest over that of the GOP as they did in IA then McCain’s position might be overstated… I’m not sure this group of voters is as crucial to McCain as it was in 2000 against Bush but it’s still pretty important and a low indy count in the GOP primary must be what Romney is counting on.
Beyond NH, the Clinton campaign seems to be seeing Nevada and Florida with their large Latino populations as their new ‘firewall’ banking on the tradition of Latino/African-American animosity to favour Clinton over Obama… meanwhile the Clinton is suggesting that Obama’s strong performances thus far could set up a landslide for him in SC, where the African-American community (which represents a huge section of primary electorate) has been waiting to see how capable he is of gaining traction amongst mainstream, white voters, the suggestion is that this community is now breaking overwhelming for Obama.
O/T Britons ‘richer than Americans’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7174372.stm
re 17. There is a slight difference in the cost of living as my American friends remind whenever they come here.
17 This comarison is depndent upon the exchange rate used. The £ has recently fallen back against the $ by several % - and the difference between UK and US on the numbers quoted is less than 1%.
Ron Paul % vote for NH from Lads, his average on RCP is 8.1.
0-4.99% 6/1
5-9.99% 11/10
10-14.99% 6/5
15-19.99% 6/1
20+% 16/1
19 “This comparison is dependent upon…”
Sorry - time for a new non-stick keyboard…
19 Read the article
O/T just listened to Mr Brown on Today - lots of “Big Decisions” apparently, in fact “Tough, Big Decisions”,then there are “Long term Big Decisions” . In fact “Big Decisions” and other “Big” if not decisive actions and “Big Announcements” which Big, Tough Gordon is going to make that while Tough, are not only Big but Long Term.
He sounded most at ease being Chancellor and taking about the economy but even there “Big” “Tough” “Long Term” seem to be the catchwords.
16. Yes, it will be worth keeping an eye on both Romney’s and Hillary’s price for value. If the Dem contest looks too one-sided, might not independents opt to influence the much more open GOP one, or just not bother at all, leading to a smaller Obama lead than expected? Likewise, I agree that if the independents head to the Democrats poll, that should boost Romney’s chances.
16 True Clinton is playing the expectations game in SC now (though I think she’s probably right and likely to drop to third there, given Edwards is the local boy).
More interesting are mutterings that her campaign is terrified she’s going to lose the endorsement of the key Culinary Workers Union in Nevada. (I’m being serious - you couldn’t make this stuff up)
24 - David, your point is a good one wrt Hillary. But I’m not sure it’s as valid with Romney because he is probably a busted flush. Plus the good point about value betting on Clinton is that she can come back without winning NH, while it would be far more difficult for Romney.
Also note that only 8% of “independents” are truly independent, rather than (at least loosely) identifying with one or other of the parties, so I’m not sure their influence will be as binary as some are suggesting.
24 Joe Klein not convinced McCain will do it in NH - see post McCain’s Lost Weekend.
http://time-blog.com/swampland/
24/25 - Further to these posts, I think the best hedge against McCain (who is still a long way from inevitable and has some pretty high hurdles ahead of him) remains Giuliani.
Marquee Mark @ 13 re bipartisan governance — that is part of Obama’s appeal. (And perhaps Gordon’s big tent politics.)
27. In short, thats a spot on way of looking at it at this time.
18. How dare you let facts get in the way of the spin…..
Ant @ 25 re culinary workers for Clinton. Hillary may be able to count on the textile workers too since Obama seems to be wearing a British tie in the picture at the top (the stripes on American ties go the other, wrong way).
1 Sea Shanty - Thanks for your many excellent contributions.
It is hard to imagine a more incongruous pair than Obama and Brown. Whatever the latter’s difficulties, the arrival of a fluent, charasmatic leader in the White House is not going to help him. Nor is the fact that he invested a fair bit of political capital in snuggling up to George Bush.
Cameron on the other hand…..
PtP (32) I hadn’t got round to thinking about that. An excellent point. And I wonder if Clegg will fit into such a debate?
33 If he can get heard, he’d be OK, but it’s hard to conceive at what point the prospective occupant of the White House becomes interested in the views of the newly elected Leader of the Liberal Democrats.
24 – If we had a few days till the primary I think Obama might suffer from Indies opting to influence the GOP contest (which seems closer) but the polls coming out now (all of which are finally post-IA in their field work) should actually help him, if the vote was next week his campaign would probably be more concerned as it is I think the big leads that Ramusen, Gallup and [deep breath] ARG are currently giving him just add to the “momentum”/ “movement” narrative.
25 – My sense is that even if Hillary did well in NH she’d still face a very strong Obama showing in SC… Nevada is a contest I really don’t know much about, it’s never been this early before (IIRC) and there doesn’t seem to have been a whole lot of attention focused on it…
Your right about the importance of the Union vote (would I be right in characterising it as the service worker unions largely based in the Las Vegas area?) and you would have thought it would have been overwhelmingly Latino… also would Harry Reid have any impact (while he’s not endorsed Clinton, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was tacitly supporting her).
34 – I think the folks on LibDem voice would take issue with that
[33] Where Clegg fits in? Doubtless, worth analysing….
Reminds me of the early days of pb.com, when the first person to mention the Nazis had ‘lost’.
The only recent equivalent is ‘if such-and-such happens, X party will be out of power for a generation’. Complete bollocks, and you need to move on quickly.
[36] David, do you really want me to do a 300-word post explaining why, after it’s lost the next election, Labour will be out of power for a generation?
Where Clegg fits in to the American election? Reminds me of the Liberal Party leader (Clement Davies) at the time of the Suez Crisis, who decided not to say anything on the subject in case he exacerbated the situation….
38 The original question wasn’t really about where Clegg fits into the American election - rather whether he might benefit if the US elects a more youthful and liberal leader (especially in comparison to Brown).
39 Sory, Ant, I had a cheap shot available at the time and thought that I ought to use it. Personally, I think that a “youthful” US President will surround himself with the world’s greatest collection of old white males, which will provide both experience and contrast. Clegg and Cameron will need to do likewise.
39 - aye, and that certainly will have some effect. Especially as Obama and Clegg come from a similar perspective with respect to the war and social security.
Nick Clegg has had virtually no coverage, so I don’t expect to see the LDs improve in the polls this week.
Bloomberg seriously considering….
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/01/07/2008-01-07_mayor_bloomberg_seriously_considering_wh.html
3-Thanks.
43 I’m sure we’ll have more on-off-on again-off again stories in teh coming weeks. He doesn’t need to decide until March at the earliest and I suspect his decision will depend on who the eventual nominees are. This kind of story might well be just to keep media coverage during the primary season.
http://tinyurl.com/2ko9ln is an interesting consideration of Bloomberg’s politics given his ultimate ambition to create post-partisan politics (Gordon Brown take note!). In the light of this, I think Chuck Hagel might be critical to the Bloomberg project.
23. Don’t forget the “long-term decisions for the future of our country.”
It amuses me how much Gordon loves to play repetition. Big decisions, big decisions, big decisions. Cobra, Cobra, Cobra.
26- Ted- I do not think Romney is out of it, not by any means. A NH win would catapult him into the leading position, and then all the news would be about him. Huckabee’s win in Iowa would then be viewed as something quite quirky.
I am also beginning to think that the Obama hype may back fire, and peaking too early comes to mind. Hillary facing down Obama could be the spring board that she needs in the presidential election after.
So after two weeks predicting a Obama Romney battle in Novmeber, I am changing this to Clinton, Romney. Counter intuitive I know, but I am sure that the primaries will ultimately be won by the best organised, most formidable teams.
O/T- Ted I posted yesterday that I was sorry to hear about your cat. Lovely way to go though, probably dreaming about mouse chasing.
43 This third party “heal the nations wounds” stuff falls apart if it’s Obama v McCain - both attractive across party lines. Clinton v Romney perhaps make open a space but you have got to ask what for?
23 and 46- what about in implementing his vision for the country, shared of course with us all, big naturally, tough obviously, long term definitely,
“N.H. Independents torn between Barack Obama and John McCain”
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/01/07/2008-01-07_nh_independents_torn_between_barack_obam-3.html
47 I can’t agree about Obama peaking too early. I completely accept your point that Clinton can still win, but Obama had no choice but to start strong otherwise Hillary would already have the nomination wrapped up. He just has to hope he can maintain his momentum.
Romney’s not out of it but he needs strong showings in NH and Michigan, while all the current signals are that he won’t receive them. His appalling debate showing at the weekend was further evidence of an imploding campaign.
I think Martin Kettle in the Guardian has one of the best analyses that our UK newspapers have written so far on the US election.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2235791,00.html
(In particular his final two paragraphs.)
“President Mike Huckabee?”
“Now it’s true that many conservatives have serious doubts about Huckabee’s positions, especially on foreign policy, and his record, particularly on taxes. The conservative establishment is strikingly hostile to Huckabee — for both good and bad reasons. But voters seem to be enjoying making up their own minds this year. And Huckabee is a talented politician.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/opinion/07kristol.html?hp
53 it’s a worry. I still find him terrifying. But he shouldn’t be dismissed just because he won’t win NH. After all, New England doesn’t give a huge number of electoral college votes to the Republicans. His showings in the south and midwest will be far more revealing.
54-Ant-And he is one of those who I underestimated. I had doubts about him in IA, and was not sure if his rethoric was going to work, well, it worked!
Me@53 (hi by the way!) - thinking more about Huck, deos he need to do well in NH? It’s not traditional territory and won’t third place be enough to keep him as a strong candidate into South Carolina (where he could well win) and Florida?
I find Huckabee terrifying but Florida (esp in the north) is a pretty southern state and I’m beginning to wonder whether he could seriously challenge Giuliani there. If so, there are about 6 southern states voting on super duper tuesday and I fear I’ve been too hasty to write Huckabee off.
I think it’s looking to me that all strategies will converge in Florida and that could be the result that defines Feb 5.
49 Tyson, saw your comment on my cat, thanks - she had a liking for crisps and tuna so more probably was dreaming of some new Walkers delicacy. Her son (still with us) is the one who leaves bits of rabbits, mice and birds in the laundry room. Think he misses her as even with him being 10 years old (a year younger than her) she would still eat first, cuff him if he was boisterous and wash him - for a small cat she was a bossy thing.
I started to count how often Gordon said BIG (he emphasised the word a lot) but lost count as each phrase included it. Someone in today’s papers mentions that he obviously reads his reviews as he is trying hard not to do that breathing/swallowing thing and holds his hands still - be interesting to see how re-launch goes down. Think he might well have better polling this week.
Do wonder though if its good politics to take quite so many Big, Tough, Long Term Decisions in a short period - temporary boost but then nothing much to grab the headlines with until the budget. Suppose they can all be re-announced then - will it be a Big Tough Budget for the Long Term I wonder?
55 - Me - we were wrong in thinking Huckabee might have peaked too early in November/December but I think where we really got him wrong was thinking that a good showing in Iowa would be a bit of an anomaly.
He seemed to be running a shoestring campaign and the odd gaffe were enough to suggest that national attention would be too much for him. But on the contrary, he is very comfortable in the media and the primary schedule doesn’t work too badly against him.
I don’t think he’s more than third favourite right now, but he’s still a dangerous horse to ignore.
51- Ant- I realise that Obama had to win Iowa, and also NH- by peaking I meant the hype about his prospects, his in trade position, and position in betting markets, and more widely by commentators and punters. I think it could be too much, too early and a small knock could blow him completely off course (i.e a narrow NH win over Hillary could potentially damage him; punters are expecting a double digit plus Hillary pounding).
Something a bit more tempered after Iowa could have been better for him. Hillary can probably take a few knocks, some quite serious and still come out winning this thing. I doubt very much this is true for Obama who probably needs one long hike of momentum to propel him forwards from here.
Re; Romney- proces of elimination- I still cannot see McCain getting the nod, and discounting Guliani leaves Romney.
4: Are you really surprised? It’s January, the election is in November. 10 months of it just isn’t going to hold the interest of us here in the UK, where evn our own political machinations go largely unnoticed by most people. I guess that’s why you feel the need to mention the UK politics thread later today or tomorrow! I guess hits for your site are way down…
Wake me up when they’ve chosen the candidates, it might hold some interest then!
59 Tyson. Thanks for clarifying - sorry I slightly misrepresented you. It wasn’t intentional.
I think yours is a good point, and he could have managed the expectations better. The only counter-arguemnts are that the all-out assault might pressurise Hillary into a mistake, and a double-digit victory in NH (which is looking possible) would probably be enough to sweep him to the nomination. But it’s a dangerous game.
Re Republicans - I still wouldn’t rule out the prospect that it goes all the way to the convention.
56-Hi Ant!
“I fear I’ve been too hasty to write Huckabee off.”
I made the same mistake, I think we forgot that other candidates have the “wrong”(at least for now!) strategy or are making many mistakes, and he may be the last one standing! It’s all very amazing. And, as you, I don’t think he needs to go well in NH, although this would certainly help him a lot!
BTW, Fred got the third place we were expecting!
58-Ant-Yes, I found an article some days ago, and it’s one of the best that I have ever read about Huck. I will see if I can find again(it won’t take long, I hope!)
61- thanks Ant- the interesting thing is that no one knows at the minute, and Obama’s strategy could be perfect- putting all the firepower at the start to take out your opponents.
The point about Romney is that I read somewhere he knew Iowa was beyond his reach a couple of weeks ago, and he was changing his strategy accordingly. As much as I like McCain (notwithstanding his links to the Tories) I just cannot see him winning.
18: Cost of living here is definitely more as an average, but my impression is that’s merely the result of the typical Briton being an atrociously lazy shopper. If you hunt for the bargains things are no more expensive here - for example I just got home buildings and contents insurance for -50 pounds total (they pay me net 50 cashback over the year!), and that’s on a listed building. Meanwhile, a typical high street insurer asks 500-600 for the same thing. Ditto with mobile phones - I’ve not paid for a mobile contract for years, it’s all cashbacked.
We moan about “ripoff Britain”, but good pricing is a two-way street. If customers en masse refuse to search for price/quality information properly, there’s little benefit for companies to compete on price.
Actually, one major exception: clothes are really, really expensive here.
62, Me - Fred did indeed come third but he didn’t quite do enough really. Though I note he picked up a good second place in Wyoming, which is bound to make no end of difference!!
As an interesting aside, Bob Novak has alleged that the rumours Thompson would stand aside and endorse McCain emanated from the Romney campaign. All very confusing!
57- Ted- my cat (tyson) just love wotsits. Will sit outside a cupboard with an unopened packet inside with the guarded attention of a shop steward monitoring a picket line.
Tyson @ 64 - until the last few days, my gut told me the same about McCain.
The reason why I’m now dithering sounds far-fetched but I don’t think it is:
The Republicans are going to look for a candidate to back in an attempt to eliminate Huckabee (who is a counter-establishment loose cannon) sooner rather than later.
The most likely candidate would have been Giuliani, but they can’t really wait until February to neutralise Huck.
So Giuliani shoots himself in the foot by staying out and the Republicans have little choice but to swing behind McCain or Romney (barring an unlikely Thompson surge).
In this scenario, New Hampshire could become a simple play-off.
I read something speculating along these lines over the weekend and the more I think about it the more sense it seems to make. What do you reckon?
66-Ant-Ok, got it:
http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2008/01/underestimating-huck.html
Hillary’s price now approaching 2/1 on Betfair, the highest it has ever been.
I see Nick Clegg has continued the lib dem trend by promising to break two party politics, just as Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell did. When they become leader are they made to swear to continue this policy? It’s become more of a meaningless phrase than an actual aim, as none of them have come even close to achieving it any point.
70 PtP - thanks. FWIW, while the move has obviously been sparked by recent events, I think it’s a long overdue correction. I wasn’t tempted below evens at the turn of the year, and now 3/1 is where I’d be thinking about dipping back in.
Obama is now odds on with Paddy Power to be next US President. Generally a 5/4-11/8 shot but shortening all the time.
69 - thanks, I enjoyed the article.
68- Ant- intuitively I think you are absolutely on the money. First GOP like to back an annointed candidate as early as possible in contrast with the Democrats and will then back chosen one with the full force of the party. Why Guliani played it long is madness. Maybe he knew that he could not win NH some time ago.
The prospect of a Huck win will mortify GOP, and so NH becomes a million times more important than before. And if Romney starting putting all his organsisation there over a fortnight ago, and if the independents go join the Obama bandwagon- Romney looks like he could easily take NH on current tie polls. I also think Romney probably energises the GOP base more than McCain. Think Ken Clarke.
The only thing that slightly leads me to doubt the above is if GOP collectively think that 2008 is a no hoper (Bush factor and tarnished brand). They could then be happy to string out the primaries as long as possible and squabble and bicker until the end to find a sacrificial (probable) lamb for November. In this case Huckabee and Guliani are still well in it, and the Guliani strategy then looks very clever indeed.
The NH GOP debate was a heckava lot more dirty than the Democrats which could indicate that GOP are simply happy for this one to play long. Then it will be Guliani (probably), or maybe even Huckabee. Think big, long term and tough (cleverly linking two disparate threads together).
All ifs and buts I know, but great fun speculating. And some of us are going look quite silly after.
Slightly OT, but this could waste your lunchtime
http://www.electoralcompass.com/
Turns out I’m nearest Ron Paul, then Bill Richardson. Go figure
71- breaking 2 party politics is big, tough, long term and shows plenty of shared vision (particularly shared with LD leaders). Is Nick Clegg Gordon Brown in disguise?
65 “If you hunt for the bargains things are no more expensive here”
My diligent hunting has failed to locate petrol below £1 a litre. Whereas in the US….
77. It would have to be a very good disguise! I just think it would be better if they started talking about that when they had more MP’s, cos at the moment it just sounds like an overambitious aim with no real plan to get there.
“Republicans Face Decisive Vote”
“Tomorrow’s results will help determine if Rudy Giuliani miscalculated in campaigning little in the early-voting states. In effectively ceding New Hampshire to Mr. Romney, he left a void that Mr. McCain has now filled. A McCain victory, in particular, could threaten Mr. Giuliani’s bid to be seen as the moderate choice in the race, and thus the most electable.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119967045336471355.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
76- thanks- mine was Obama. very entertaining though.
78: fair point
I guess my perspective is somewhat distorted by not having a car - there’s absolutely no point when you live in the city centre, as there’s nowhere to park (besides, can hire a small card for a tenner a day when needed, they pick me up from my door and it’s astronomically cheaper than paying for cost of ownership, mot/insurance/repairs etc)
76-I really liked, thanks!
69 - I’ve been fascinated by the ‘crunchy con’ mini-phenomena (epitomized by Rod Dreher whose article you linked to) in the States for a while now and whether this is ever bubble up into mainstream politics.
It’s a socially conservative, economically conservative movement that’s against the war in Iraq (on the basis that the Middle East is none of America’s business) and feels that America should return to small-town virtues such as caring for your neighbour and looking after the environment - a far cry from the perceived economic liberalism and platforms of the GOP.
The recent David Brooks article in the NYT contained this line about Huckabee (the default ‘Crunchy Con’ candidate): “Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has” and I was reminded of a lot of Cameron’s recent repositioning so I think the movement bears keeping an eye on if only as a potential weather vane for developments here.
76 - I’m closest to Obama but a touch more liberal than him.
76. Ron Paul’s my man!
84-What impressed me is the fact that both Rod and David think that Huck started a reform in the Republican party.But Rod goes further, he says that Huck is the future of the GOP(even if he doesn’t win!)
Tyson@75 mentions the no-hoper factor in the Republican race; One thing I’ve been wondering is whether the established Christian Right leaders might not get scared and try to torpedo a Huckabee nomination. Tactically, wouldn’t it be better for them to let someone like Guiliani win the nomination then lose the election rather than letting an evangelical like Huckabee go ahead and get crushed by Obama?
Obama “peaking too early”?? That’s like saying to an ecstatic Hereford United team, that has just gone 3-0 up against Arsenal, in the first ten minutes of an FA cup semifinal - “guys, you shouldn’t have scored so early, you should have saved those goals for the second half”.
You what?
I don’t agree, either, that Obama has to keep the momentum going at this level all the way to November. He just has to keep it going for about three weeks, past Super Tuesday, by which point he will be practically crowned as candidate. And Mike S can then get some British readers back.
But British politics is so boring right now. And Gordon Brown and his team are just so utterly grey and depressing. You turn, in the news pages, from the youthful, optimistic, cheering faces of Obama and his supporters, to the dour lugubrious physog of Gordon “moral compass” Broon, looking like a bulldog chewing his way through a condom, and your spirits plummet.
Obama is bad for Gordon and Labour.
89. “Obama is bad for Gordon and Labour. ”
Exactly.
Why do you think Palmer wants Clinton?
88: they’ve already done the nearest possible without alienating their own base: most of them went with Thompson, and very publicly so. Huckabee was moaning about it to the press a fair bit.
Thanks for the electoralcompass link, much fun before serious work
Was kinda wary with a lot of the questions as usual - answering them truthfully often gives the program the wrong impression.
Apparently I’m closest to Edwards, furthest from Thompson - completely batty! McCain is closest on a range of issues, or using the scales alone I’m probably economically right/social liberal, so Ron Paul’s position would be more accurate.
87 - I seem to remember reading (possibly in the NYT again) that evangelicals were not the Republican supporting block they used to be and that there is a possible realignment going on there as well. I suspect that an urban Democrat party is still too far away for them to feel comfortable with but it has an interesting potential for a long-term change.
Today’s Zogby tracking confirms Obama’s and McCain’s momentum. Obama now leads 39-29, McCain 34-29. Yesterday both races were even in the Zogby poll.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0433304720080107
91-”Apparently I’m closest to Edwards, furthest from Thompson”
Me too, and that’s amazing, because I have no sympathy for Edwards!
Obama isnt bad for Gordon Brown. Gordon Brown is bad for Gordon Brown and his party will find that out in due course if it hasn’t yet.
I think Obama is not going to be the next President. He is simply too inexperienced and will be eaten alive by either McCain or Giuliani (or even Thompson). A forty state Republican landslide come November is not out of the question in an Obama vs McCain contest. A lot of his support from independants and moderate Republicans is simply an attempt to stop Hillary getting the Democratic nomination (which is stupid because they could accomplish their task more easily by voting for McCain).
92-I remember one article in the NYT about this. But a Democratic party, as you said, would be too much, so where are they going?
Is Hillary really a “formidable politician”? Wouldn’t she be winning if this were the case? Wouldn’t she at least be avoiding a line of attack that even Brown could see would backfire?
“line of attack that even Brown could see would backfire?”
I see, you still have faith in Gordon!
96 I think that’s a little contentious.
For one thing, the authorities in Kirkuk have postponed the referendum there until June. When it happens, Iraq could well (and unfortunately) be in the melting pot again, with Turkish involvement likely if not inevitable.
If Iraq again dominates the headlines, Obama’s “anti” stance is likely to win more votes than McCain’s “foreign policy experience but strongly pro-war” stance.
And that’s just one of many wrinkles. It’s also quite likely that, in the long run-up to the election, it will be made quite clear to moderate voters that, while he styles himself as a maverick, John McCain is pretty conservative on all but a couple of high profile issues. Just look at his voting record.
76: Nearest McCain of all people.
95: Be fair Messrs Balls, and Milbland have played their parts to perfection too. It doesn’t matter who runs for US President Brown needs someone willing to point out where he is going wrong, and then listen to them.
96: But for all his faults isn’t he encumbered by less baggage (and downright hatred) than Mrs Clinton?
100. And the US, is overall, a reasonably conservative country.
Brown’s constant talk of being the one taking all the big decisions, then reaming off lists has really damaged him (I know that sounds obvious). Everyone I know see’s him as being boring and obsessed with his own achievements, rather than having a vision (where did that go anyhoo?).
Obama now 1/16 to win New Hampshire! Jeez, that’s shorter than Arkle was to win the Gold Cup.
104 that’s very short. Might be worth dipping in and laying him for value.
97 - my guess is that they’re holding their noses and going for the least worst option or possibly going for DINOs (where available)? I think Rod Dreher (albeit as an member of the Orthodox church rather than an evangelical) is a professed ‘nose holder’ who votes Republican but who has supported Democrats locally when they have offered the better platform.
96 Well you can’t be accused of not sticking to your post, Matthew, but isn’t it time to get into the lifeboat and leave the Titanic?
Read SeanT’s posts. He’s captured the change of mood. For better or worse, it looks like the US political landscape is about to change.
One warning on Obama at very very short odds.
His campaign hasnt bumped yet. It may not do so but most candidates do tend to have a proper rough patch.
Tell me if I’m wrong but if Hilary is near dead can someone tell me why she was still second place in Sporting Index’s next president list?
Surely if Guiliani and McCain look the two big players their position on the spreads should be rather better.
Just a thought.
O/T 17
In December 2006 my wife and I bought a three-bed house on a third of an acre of land in one of the northern states for less than six thousand pounds! Fully furnished! In beautiful condition!
If you take housing costs out of the equation, and consider areas away from the big cities, then I assure you we do much better during our six months in the states than we do over here.
We either live better in the US on the same money or save whilst we are there; in fact we do a little of both.
100 “just one of the many wrinkles” spooked a thought I’d had watching Hilary (not an attack on her but trying to be objective) - she’s never been the most photogenic politician, a bit like Cherie Blair, her smile and wide eyes look over-exaggerated in photos but I wonder whether the work she’s obviously had done on her face (botox at least and probably something around the eyes and mouth) is part of what adds to the impression of falsity/lack of emotion.
She’s in a lose-lose situation here; she can’t look her full 60 years and be “Change” (though white haired old McCain can) but there is a coldness resulting from lack of movement in her face that detracts when she is “emoting”. Maybe the added attractiveness outweighs it.
107 Be careful SeanT is a romantic by nature, so isn’t necessary the soberest analyst of the political scene. Maybe there is a big romantic change theme in the air in the states. In a way I hope there is.
However, if the hint develops that Obamna is bad for business or will hurt the buck in your wallet it could all easily come crushing down. Romantics don’t always win over the grey pragmatists (see Major vs Kinnock 1992). It’s early days. Caution punters.
Also don’t agree that Obama is bad for Brown and Labour. If America takes a turn to the left there might be opportunities for Labour to embrace that the Tories won’t or just can’t.
108. As mentioned above, there’s not much time for a bump to rescue Hilary. The main action will be on Suepr Tuesday and if he keeps the big mo going until then, it could well all be over.
112 Jonathan - I agree that SeanT is not necessarily the soberest analyst. In fact he isn’t necessarily sober, even at eleven o’clock in the morning. In his characteristically poetic way he has however captured something that the bare numbers do not fully relate.
I’ll not be betting against Obama now.
113. Too short odds though at this time, too short.
106-Yes, very good point. But until when will they hold their noses? How far can they go? Anyway I agree that it will be interesting to watch this movement.
109 Good thinking, Yokel. The spreads may be a good way of exploiting the current turmoil.
“Prime Minister Gordon Brown again refused today to give a categoric guarantee that more than £25 billion of taxpayers’ money loaned to Northern Rock to keep the stricken lender afloat would be repaid.
The Prime Minister sidestepped a challenge over whether the public funds were safe during an interview with the BBC, saying only: “Our intention is to ensure the Government’s financial position on this.”
So a loan equating to, but not part of, nearly half the government borrowing this year, is unsafe?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article3144288.ece
117: Yeah - I’ve been wondering for a little while if there might be an overreaction towards Obama, leaving value on Clinton in one state or another. She still has a monster _national_ organisation, her hubbie’s popularity to exploit, and way more campaign experience than Obama. Florida is the obvious target, but we need more polls
Can you believe it? I’m closest to Bill Richardson!
It was the gun control questions that did it. Nothing gets me going quicker than American attitudes to gun control. They bang on about the 2nd Amendment as if it were somehow relevant to the 21st Century. How many have actually read it?
Retaining a militia, for chrissake? It’s torturing the language to justify the absurd.
114. “I’ll not be betting against Obama now.”
Peter:
Do you think it is worth me laying off any of my exposure on Obama yet?
Or should I hold the bet full?
120. What you on about?
We are allowed to retain militias here under UK government sponsorship and thats in practice.
As you can tell aint done us any harm….
118. Perhaps Nick Palmer - who no doubt ‘knows about’ this subject - would like to ensure us again that the taxpayer won’t suffer any losses.
I see Paddy Power are going for the free PR and are paying out on Obama for the nomination already. My only concern is he does so well with the Indy vote when he blows out New Hampshire that he doesn’t leave enough behind to back McCain putting my 25/1 shot at risk.
122 Sorry Yokel, I should have made it clear that I was referring only to the USA. In more civilised places, different considerations apply.
120. Peter, I can’t believe it– Bill Richardson!
There’s 2.5k at betfair available to lay Obama-NH at 1.13. That sort of guaranteed liquidity is kinda rare on these markets, so might be useful for risk-averse types who bought at him at a fair bit higher.
121 It really depends how your book stands, CR, and how risk averse you are. It is now so cheap to lay off that you may as well, but personally I haven’t. Every time I go to do so, the juggernaut gathers a little more momentum and I finish up putting a little more on the tall skinny kid.
I got an idea to amuse whilst the US wakes up.
Can we come up with some names that astroturfers, Tarquins etc can use for themselves? So they pick off a pre selected list….make it easy and all…
I quote like Plasma Node, Dangerously Dangerous and my favourite, Hell in a Hand Cart….
Oh, Shadsy put up an “Obama NH performance market”
ps best price on Obama-NH seems to be 1.08 at bet365, so you could probably lay him at 1.1 and get a bite. That’s co cheap I’m always tempted, but not quite - if it drops to 1.05 though…..
I’ve just laid off a little of my Obama for NH price and reinvested it into the 4/1 Shadsy is offering for 45%+ vote share. A tough ask based purely on the polls, but don’t the Americans love to back a winner.
126 I know…I’ll get me coat.
My mistake, best price still unibet at 1.1, which is just plain daft. The amount of exposure they have you’d think they’d be at 1.04 or thereabouts trying to balance their books.
Unfortunately as long as that price stays it will prop up Betfair
124. McCain worries me and has done now for a week or two.
I would clear well over a grand if he came in as the nominee and thats including a bit layed off to cover stake and a bit of profit. There’s a bit more to lay off that I’ve been keeping as a shot for glory bet and I have been building up to doing it. I think now might be the time, in case something goes awry. It’ll only take one state to go wrong of MI, SC or NH and it’ll be seen as a big downer.
I also took a bit on him in NH based on my idea that if he could get within 10 points of Romney in the polls then he could just do it with Romney in diffs in Iowa. Small stake ok odds but I don’t feel a desire to lay that off.
131. 45+ in NH? Thats brave or foolhardy. But then up until Saturday lunchtime or so I still thought Hilary could win there.
More wonky polling from Suffolk: Romney+3, Obama+1.
131. Peter, don’t be too worried. Guess what? I came as Bill Richardson!
128. Peter: I am extremely risk-averse. I am terrified of losing money!!
I have £50 at 2.34 on betfair to win the nomination.
Reinforce the bet or lay??
I itch to lay so I feel safe, but I also now feel he’s a sure winner.
Need some sober advice
(PS. I take it you’ve bet in the “hundreds” or even “thousands” on the man, no??)
McCain should win.I noticed that in the Suffolk poll Huckabee has 8% whereas in other polls where McCain leads Huckabee has 10% or 11%.It can mean that Huckabee will take some Evangelical vote from Romney.I know that there are not so many Evangelicals in NH but there are some.
I do not see how can Romney beat McCain in NH.
137. I’m right in the middle between the parties! Which sounds about right for a British rightwinger. Ron Paul is however quite close to me, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson are the nearest Dems.
The furthest away from me is Hilary on the Dem side, and some Republicans I don’t even recognise.
Good. I’d say I am therefore a Barack Republican.
120 Tend to agree on US gun laws but…
Condeleezza Rice told a story about her father, who was a black minister in an Alabama church. She pointed out that if they had had gun registration laws it was likely that the white supremacist Birmingham police, under Bull Connor, would have taken away her father’s weapons, leaving the church prey to Klu Klux Clan and other vigilantes (she lost a close friend in the 18th St Church bombing so not an unlikely scenario). The law can be twisted to the disadvantage of innocents and in a violent society the weak need real weapons - we are told and believe the US is a different place today but that happened in our lifetimes.
138 Seriously, CR, follow your instincts. I think he’s a sure fire winner but it’s seldom wrong to lock in profits. Why not lay off half and keep the rest?
My Obama betting is complicated but it’s all driven by the £50 at 50/1 I had yonks ago, courtesy of Mike. Basically I’ll win £1k if he takes NH, a further £3k if he gets the nomination, and another £1.5k if he makes it to President. That’s big potatoes by my standards and would be my most successful political punt to date.
131 It is, as you say, quite an ask, Caveman, but Shadsy shows great enterprise in these matters and we should support a fellow PBer. I’ve followed you, to small stakes, on the 45+ (I got 4/1 : did you do better?)
I’ve also had a dabble on Ron Paul to get 10/15% at 6/5. I think that Fox insult has played into his hands.
142. Wow, congrats! Who Dares Wins.
142. That’s amazing!!
I’m far too timid to bet big money on long shots. And £50 does count as big money in my book!
I guess you could say, though, in for a penny, in for a pound…
“Why not lay off half and keep the rest?”
Like your advice. I’ll reassess this evening. If the price still looks good I might put down another £50-£100 on him and lay off after he wins NH.
We’ll see..
“The conventional caveat is that things could change. World events could refocus voters on Hillary’s strengths - or on Obama’s weaknesses. Yet as of today, it is far more likely that Hillary Clinton won’t be giving an acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. Maybe Obama, the unifier, will let her speak in prime time.”
By ROBERT SHRUM
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/01/07/2008-01-07_sen_clintons_massive_mistake__and_the_fi.html?page=0
I’ll stop my Obamalatry in a minute, but just read this great line he used in Salem NH. Talking of Clinton’s pooh-poohing his change theme, and claiming he was offering false hopes, Obama said:
“Did JFK say: ‘That moon thing, it looks too far, let’s have a reality check here, we can’t do it’.”
Nice one.
I also note that Clinton warned Americans against “making a leap of faith”. If there’s one thing you shouldn’t warn Americans against, it’s “making a leap of faith”.
The whole fecking country is a leap of faith - literally - thousands of people taking that hopeful journey across the freezing and perilous Atlantic. Stupid stupid woman. What’s more, of course, at least a third of the nation has made another literal leap of faith, into born again Christianity or similar creeds.
Hillary Clinton has a cloth ear, no common sense - and a soul devoid of poetry. Her husband, for all his faults, would never have warned Americans against making “a leap of faith”.
144 But there was no dare about it, SeanT. This is what astonishes me about political betting. Time your entries and exits right and there is precious little risk. For example, if Hillary wins, I just make less - about £500.
How do you time it right? You read PB.com.
I said to Mike recently that I have no special knowledge. What I am good at is judging the merits of other people’s suggestions. Naturally you have to learn who’s who, but if you follow the right posters, you can’t go wrong.
This is the easiest and most pleasurable way of making money I ever found.
148. “This is the easiest and most pleasurable way of making money I ever found.”
Can it last though?
95% of Betfair accounts in deficit.
Sorry, but I am perpetually terrified that one day I will bet £500 on a “sure winner” and lose it all!
I guess having nerves of steel