Populus poll gives boost for Clegg
January 7th, 2008“Four Daves” - Con 37 (-3), Lab 33 (+1), Lib Dem 19 (+3)
UK politics has been overshadowed by the dramatic events across the Atlantic, but tonight’s Populus poll in the Times shows the state of the parties as Parliament returns from the Christmas break.
Nick Clegg, who’ll face his first PMQs on Wednesday, gets a three-point boost for the Lib Dems, while the Conservatives have a four-point lead over Labour, and Brown is now behind Cameron on who has the qualities needed to make a good Prime Minister by four points.
Mike is on a visit to Devon but is having trouble with phone/internet reception.
The 2008 Political Forecaster competition is still open - entries close at 6pm tomorrow.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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Down to 37%. Sack Cameron!!!!
Not surprised to be honest. Tories not in the news much and lots of our rich voters are on their winters hols. Things will be OK when they return from Barbados and Dubai
Think Betfair ruling on PfP’s wager “Mike to Post in 30 minutes” required as it was Maggs not Mike but was it at Mike’s instigation?
400. (from previous thread)
PtP - how on earth are we meant to “guess” what the odds should be for BO and HC on a brand new market with zero pounds traded?!
What do you suggest? Barack at 1.8 to win Arizona? Clinton 2.4??
Bloody hell, that’s good! Could it be a rogue, or a trend?
OK, Jesus, enough. Can we go back to American politics please, at long last?
5 I agree. That’s six posts already. Is this Site infatuated with the UK? Can’t we have some US politics once in a while?
Evening all
Just looking at the weather ahead of the NH primary. Temperatures are a long way above normal (some twenty degrees fahrenheit above) and apart from some fog it looks set fair.
This suggests the potential for a high turnout and should (I assume)favour Obama in particular.
5 - point taken. But had I been spinning as a typical Tory on this site I would have written…
“This doesn’t surprise me at all. Brown is HATED, and the TORY’s are CRAPP!!!!!!!!!!!!! CLEGG is the FUTURE!!!!!!!
:) 
:) Enoughghg of spinn and lies. Torys to winnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
:)”
3 Some people lay money down at ridiculous odds in the hope somebody makes a mistake and takes them up. It happens sometimes too. Somebody gets their lay and back the wrong way round and hey presto! You’ve backed Obama to win Illinois at 999/1!
It’s unlikely there will be a proper market in most of these Primaries for some while, if ever. All but one or two are currently illiquid and most will stay like it.
7 - really? Low turnout might mean “elderly” stay at home. Less perishingly cold weather and the old dears may bother. What is the vote split among the over 65s?
8 surely LDs to win? Your illness seems to have overcome you. A great attempt to foresee the result of a horrific attempt to cross Martin Day with Ave It without lifting so much as a test tube!
But seriously, excellent though I think Nick is, he hasn’t done much yet to earn his 3% - a combination of random error and perhaps the LDs weren’t quite down at 16% anyway.
To the extent I believe by-elections, which I think have a modest bearing on underlying trends, LDs have being doing OK to well for a while now.
I think the next election will be something like 35:35:20. Have thought this for a while now…
The Tories have made little impression in real elections, just opinion polls, and even then only anaemically…
Interesting partly because the return of the Tory lead to more modest levels, but perhaps mainly because it suggests Clegg is successfully pulling back people who floated off to the Tories, giving some encouragement to his early strategy - much criticised here - of being critical of Cameron.
It’s only one poll, etc., but it shows how fragile the Tory grip on its new voters may be - if a few weeks pass with nothing special happening, they start to drift away.
Although Clegg is getting no real exposure, his line of attack looks like it may be working if they’re up 3 points at the expense of the Conservatives. As the tories keep going for Brown’s character, could Clegg be onto a winner doing the same with Cameron? Its early days yet, but interesting ones ahead. Its imperative that the Conservatives hold onto those swinging lib dem votes, especially in the local elections.
12 - yes, that is roughly what I would expect. But which of Labour or Tories will get 20%.
(For any Americans here tonight, please refer to “irony” in your dictionaries.)
12. What about the 40% in the last 2 council election years?
12 I wish I knew exactly events in two years time. A tad confident aren’t we. People who follow Mr S rarely are parted from their money. Thus far he hasn’t backed your formula. When he does I’ll buy it
Doesn’t Dave this quite often, go pretty quiet for a bit and see a drop in the polls, then reappear all fresh and shiny again, usually to reasonable success?
Oh, and what seanT @ 5 said.
13. You may well cheer up, Nick. I calculate you now have a 1 in 3 chance of holding your seat!
My Mum thinks Clegg looks like Cameron so maybe that is it…
13. “It’s only one poll, etc., but it shows how fragile the Tory grip on its new voters may be - if a few weeks pass with nothing special happening, they start to drift away. ”
*Yawn*
Keep dreaming…
Surprisingly bad for the Tories…glad I didn’t back my hunch they would be 8-10 points ahead for a while.
12 It depends what you mean by “real elections”. If local elections are “real elections”, then running up 13-15% leads over Labour is comparable to what the Conservatives achieved in the mid Seventies, and well in excess of anything Labour achieved from 1979 right up to 1990
18 Exactly the pattern. If Brown can keep Cameron off the airwaves he cruises. When he can’t do that or there is no Holiday period he gets stuck very quickly
23 I think he means his By Election formula..
Good poll for the LDs as there’s been little for Clegg to get his teeth into so far. Not too bad for Gordon either - some of his announcements this week have imo been crazy and very obvious media-grabbing, so there’s a real chance of them unravelling in the new year.
I wouldnt worry those in blue..just watch the economy, you know the one the government despite record tax receipts didnt actualy prepare for the day it would get tougher?
Yes, that one….
OT - ES today reports GB to back Nuclear Power. I am with John Thurso on this one, and dissent from LD popular opinion.
Populus April 07 (before the locals/Scots/Welsh) 37 C: 29 L:20 LD; after the locals/Scots/Welsh (when Labour tanked, Lib Dems stalled and Conservatives did well) May 2007 37 C: 33 L: 17 LD. So in a poll taken just as people get back from Christmas before politics really gets underway we are basically back at the same position as last Spring except Brown is the unpopular leader rather than Blair. So back to the Future!
Brown re-launching but as the Experienced Leader who will take Big Difficult Decisions because Hard Times lie ahead - will that be more successful than Brown the non-Partisan Father of the Nation, the Change?
Good stuff…
Excellent to see yet more rogue polls suggesting that the Tory’s lead is fragile.
27 - watch inflation following energy price rises. Interest rates not set to fall as quickly as expected.
20. Spoke to my dad the other day who’s a staunch conservative and he said, after seeing Cameron & Osbourne in the sunday newspapers, ..”its like looking at egg & spoon” - I’ve no real idea where it came from, but it did make me laugh - He did then go on to predict a hung parliament before searching the tv listings for the darts coverage.
He didn’t mention Clegg unfortunately, I would’ve liked to hear his description.
31. Oh they’ll fall because government pressure is for a cut but it’ll just encourage stagflation
In all seriousness, I don’t think this is “surprisingly bad” for the Tories. It’s very mildly disappointing.
We’re only just past Christmas, the Lib Dems have a new Toryish leader, British politics is hugely dull, Cammo has been out of the headlines for ages: these are optimum conditions for Gordon “As You Were” Brown, the man who aims to bore us all into submission.
And he’s reduced the Tory lead by a few percent. That’s it.
The trouble for Brown is that as soon as the heat is turned up again, and as soon as the media start to focus, his appalling weaknesses will come to light, as before.
A general election will multiply this effect many times. Brown withers in the spotlight. Cammo flourishes in the limelight. Labour need to be several points ahead before that moment, to counteract the effect.
Can’t see it. But who knows.
21. The third rogue poll in a row.
It’s so odd to see so many rogue polls predicting the same thing.
12 Rod Crosby “The Tories have made little impression in real elections, just opinion polls, and even then only anaemically…”
Q: So what has happened in every year since 97 in local elections?
A: The number of Conservative councillors grew every year.
Those are real elections.
In 2007 the % of Labour councillors dropped to 25% which is below their previous low point of 26% in 1978. At 43% the Conservatives have more than doubled their % of councillors in 97 and are getting near their 1978 level of 50%.
26. “..and very obvious media-grabbing.”
There’s been a fair amount of that from both sides at the moment, and perhaps this is where the Lib Dems can progress.
I live in a tight Labour/Lib Dem marginal and after many conversations with friends it seems to be those very strange pseudo hand written individually addressed letters that have been putting people off voting Lib Dem. Get rid of those and who knows what will happen.
34 But then again…
… towards the end of 2007 Cameron was starting to look a little bit smug. If the British truely hate anything it is a smart arse. He needs to be careful. Cameron is not loved like TB. Also the Tories are still more unpopular than ’90s Labour.
IMO the Tory poll lead following the “difficult Autumn” is naturally anti-Labour and not yet pro-Tory. Cameron has a window of opportunity to convert it. If he fails to do it soon, Brown can haul it back.
38. I basically agree. I don’t yet see a natural positivity towards the Tories, but I do see a significant antipathy for Labour. Cammo has yet to solidly convert the latter into the former.
I have faith, however, in Brown’s mendacious ineptitude and self-destructive scheming. He will continue to screw it all up.
It is interesting to see that Labour supporters are rubbing their hands with glee at ONLY being 4% behind, while Tories are disappointed at being only 4% AHEAD.
It illustrates how the political scene has shifted in the last year.
Going by the Cameron playbook he will have a mini-blitz over the next few weeks to put himself back in the frame and to add a point or two to the polls and then will sit back until April or so in time for the locals, leaving it to Brown to do his worst.
It’s been fascinating seeing the Obama technique across the pond; his timing has been perfection, he didn’t create too much movement until it was able to run through the early primaries/caucuses.
It’s a brave man/woman who sits back and waits, the risk is easy to see but the rewards can be greater.
It’s so odd to see so many rogue polls predicting the same thing. ”
A substantial Conservative lead?
“Also the Tories are still more unpopular than ’90s Labour.”
Certainly true. But not even the most fervent Conservative here imagines the Conservatives winning an overall majority of 179 at the next election.
However, Brown can’t haul it back. He’s damaged goods. The only real question is whether the Conservatives will emerge as the largest party, without a majority, next time, or whether they’ll get that working majority.
Is there any chance of markets on the locals? I mean like the ones that offered very generous odds on the LDs taking Richmond Council (always a chance) or the Tories taking H and Fulham (almost a certainty given the number of marginal seats).
Thought not. Shame Shadsy and others have learnt of the existence of this site!
Just want to say one last thing on the whole Obama thing. Many Republicans think that they are being smart by hyping Obama now so that he can get crushed by McCain or Giuliani - and they are right. However, if this means that Romney or Huckabee rather than McCain (or Giuliani) are the nominee then this might not seem so clever in the cold light of day.
43 For a moment, they were offering 16-1 *against* the Conservatives winning H & F. I couldn’t log into Betfair to take advantage. I do remember Chrisco offering me a share of his winnings on that one.
42 Cameron was damaged goods and finished this Summer if I remember.
41 Indeed, it will be interesting to see if Labour figures will help and learn from the Democrat campaign as they did in the Aussie election. Labour HQ is getting some good practice in.
40 Midway through a 3rd Term, after the Autumn from hell, for the opposition to be only 4 points ahead is defintely a reason for cheer.
39 I have faith that the Tory party will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Still not quite there yet IMO, no depth in the team, and strangely reminicent of Labour circa 1990.
44 Matthew - did you want to take the spread bet offered on the last thread?
I’ll pay $5 per Electoral College vote for McCain over 295 EC votes, but receive $5 for every vote below 295 (295 is halfway between the 270 needed and the 350 you thought he could win, and gives roughly the 50 vote margin I think is the limit). If McCain or Obama do not win their respective nomination, the bet is void. Maximum liability for each party $300?
On RealClearPolitics there’s a Horse Race Blog (obviously a PtP co-production). In thoughts on Iowa the blogger says:”Perceptive observers of the horse race should move beyond the nouns, and start looking at the adjectives and adverbs. They make a big difference.”
The Times doesn’t headline the story Conservatives Down or Lib Dems Up but they chose to headline Peter Riddell’s story “Fresh Blow for Brown as Cameron Cements Lead” s. First paragraph “Gordon Brown’s poll ratings as a leader have continued to slide as he attempts to relaunch his premiership and Government after the setbacks of the autumn”.
The Times is setting up next month’s story if Brown’s attempted relaunch doesn’t change the figures. Labour must hope that they do because another failed relaunch starts to set the narrative in stone.
46 The problem is that Brown has had his honeymoon and blown it. He’s got no more shots in his locker. His current ratings are much closer to what people thought of him prior to his honeymoon than during it.
People are pretty well certain, now, that this government is incompetent, and deserves to go. They have yet to be convinced that the Conservatives would be any better.
O/T. Obama/Clinton level in Gallup National poll. Huckabee leads for GOP…
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/gallup-clinton.html
I make that a 9% swing to Barack in the past month.. ding dong! the Witch is Dead…
28 SBS ES today reports GB to back Nuclear Power. I am with John Thurso on this one
Isn’t Dounreay in John Thurso’s constituency ?
51 - how did you guess?
46. Where’s the depth in the Labour team?
From the previous thread. PtP and Casino Royale and Intrade’s market.
These equate to percentage chance of success. So if Clinton is 25 to win the Democratic nomination then she is given a 25 per cent or 1 in 4 chance of success, a 3/1 shot. It’s the same figure you use when calculating whether a book is over or under round. Say 4 horses with odds of Evens, 2/1,3/1 and 9/1. The stake required to invest on each for a return of 1 pound would be 50p,33p,25p and 10p. Total 108p, ie overround by 8 percent. These 4 horses on Intrade would be rated 50,33,25 and 10 respectively.
I think I’ve got this right.
“Nick Clegg as Liberal Democrat leader three weeks ago has given his party a three point boost to 19 per cent, all at the expense of the Tories, down three points to 37 per cent.” The Times
Am afraid I am in sunny Frankfurt for the next three days so will miss PMQs. I just wonder if the instruction will go out to the backbench Labour MPs that they should treat Clegg at PMQ’s, as Cable Mk II.
7-9 NH Weather & Turnout
Good weather will help turnout, just as poor weather hurts it, hardly rocket science!
As for elderly, note that in US voters over 60 are the group most likely to vote. In general, the higher the turnout, the lower the age of the average voter. Which means that the senior vote is pretty constant regardless of the overall turnout level, while higher total turnout measn MUCH higher participation by youger voters.
Since Hilary does best with older voters, and Obama with younger voters, higher turnout helps Obama.
OF course Obama is currently picking up strengh with voters of ALL ages, just as Hilary is currently declining with all groups - less with some than others, but right now she’s not what you’d call surging with any cohort.
1. Can we change it to (McCain EC - Obama EC) (making the spread +52). Just in case someone else carries some states.
2. Can we also agree that the bet is only operative if both candidates are the generally recogised nominees of their party (an 3rd party run by McCain or Obama is void, a ‘fusion’ ticket that is de facto a Republican or Democrat ticket is active).
3. If any of them have to withdraw (either voluntarily or not) from the contest the bet is also void.
4. Given that the betting markets and everyone on this site other than myself believes that Obama would win such a contest (McCain is 36.6 to win the GOP nomination but only 15.2 to become President) I think it is only reasonable that the spread is +32 not +52.
5. Can you set up a PayPal account between now and November so that we can settle the bet without paying massive banking charges?
SPEAKING ON THE MINOR SUBJECT OF BRITISH POLITICS . . .
Mike, where did you get that hideous picture of Gordon Brown? Looks like Little Lord Fauntleroy considering putting his own eye out . . .
It is my understanding that there will be a 1/4% cut in interest rates this Thursday which should steady or increase the share NuLabour receive in the opinion polls.
BTW Betfair have a market in financials as to whether rates wil remain unchanged or be reduced.
Profitable days ahead !
56 NH WEATHER & TURNOUT
should add that New Englander are not hot house flowers. They are quite used to shoveling snow and wading thru slush, even if they don’t feature these activities on their tourist brochures.
As for the elderly, if a grizzled old Yankee want to go vote, going to take on heck of a ‘Noreaster to make em stay home. On the other hand, if he don’t want to vote, then wouldn’t care if you gave him a sunny day at the beach . . . even if you were talking St Tropez rather than Seabrook (next to the nuke plant).
58 . . . in a fit a pique caused by a mean Guardian columnist. While CLEGG looks like an eager salesclerk in the fine gents furnishings department of Marks & Spencer. As for CAMERON, that lad would make a CHAMPEEN fly catcher!
57. Matthew, are happy to donate that tenner I won from you direct to a charity I have in mind?
7. Certainly weird weather in the US Northeast right now. NYC forecast for tomorrow - 17 Celsius.
Bizarre.
59 It is my understanding that there will be a 1/4% cut in interest rates this Thursday
You must move in some very elevated circles Herbert, considering that the BoE committee involved in making this decision don’t even convene until Wednesday.
57 - That’s quite a difference from the bet I proposed - like George Washington’s hatchet!!
Happy with first three points, although given Bloomberg to win NY is the only likely impact that hurts my side more, but ok.
Instead of PayPal, I’d prefer to deal in cash - I’m happy to go through an honest broker who has my contact details (Peter the Punter, would you oblige?). Should I default, I am happy to be outed, pursued, banned from pb.com etc!
Only dealbreaker for me is the shift from +52 to +32. I offered the bet because I thought McCain to win 350 EC votes was a crazy possibility, whereas (like you) I do think McCain could win. I also thought the maximum spread was 50, which happened to reflect halfway between my “he’ll win by a whisker (270)” and your “he’ll get 350 EC votes”.
As I am wont to do, I was offering the bet more as a challenge of a point of view, not an estimation of what may happen. The move to +32 represents -$100 movement away from my position - there’s little value for me in that!
So, “I will lay your bet that McCain’s EC vote minus Obama EC vote to be +52 at $5 per EC vote. Bet is only valid if McCain and Obama are Presidential nominees of the Republican and Democratic parties respectively, and if both candidacies survive to Election Day.”
53. Come next GE probably a political depth of 6 foot under…
64. There reportedly is political pressure on for a cut, The analysts think its on a knife edge.
66 LOL - I thought the whole idea of handing this responsibility over to the BoE was to eliminate political pressure on interest rate fixing!
67. Well you’d think that wouldnt you. There’s a real life inflation issue and the Bank knows it. I posted a good month or two ago about the dangers of the slow down in the economy coming some months before inflationary pressures in the system begin to ease.
Potentially a very problematic time lag that now seems to be increasingly on minds.
67 PfP that is what you were meant to think. But who appoints the members of the MPC?
67 - but who owes who a few favours after N Rock - the govt, the BofE, the FSA…?
59 An interest rate cut might have a short term effect but with oil, gas & electricity prices at high levels, the pound already have depreciated by 9% over last year and likely to decline further if there is a cut, it would be a politically driven cut at the cost of the medium to long term inflation. Costs of imported goods including oil & gas would rise further. RPI is already around 4% and the government is running a state employee incomes policy. Result could well be higher interest rates closer to the likely election time and employee unrest in state sector as the incomes policy is prolonged.
65 Don’t want to mess with your bet, just want to note my humble opinion that Michael BLOOMBERG is too smart a guy to get in to this race the way it is shaping up, regardless of the eventual major party nominees.
And forget the idea that he would have a PRAYER of winning New York or any other state for that matter.
Harken back to 1948 and HENRY WALLACE.
Pratically zero congruence between political views & perspectives of Henry W and Michael B. BUT they do share this similarity: each had a significant but hard-to-quantify base in New York City. BUT did that get Wallace any EVs? Zippo. BECAUSE to win NY state you have to win MORE than the city, you must ALSO win either the NYC suburbs or upstate NY. Which is why Tom Dewey, the NY Gov, took the state.
AND that year the winner in NYC was HARRY TRUMAN. Even though many unions - including the forerunner of SEIU - endorsed Dewey.
Submit that situation sixty years later is subtantially the same so far as Bloomberg is concerned. Lots of Democrats who voted for Bloomberg for Mayor would NEVER vote for him as President. And plenty of upstaters would NEVER consider voting for the mayor of NYC for ANYTHING. Except maybe Prince of Hell, and would likely baulk at even that.
68&69 So you both + Herbert all believe a rate reduction will come this Thursday - so what then happens to the already highest inflationary pressures we’ve seen for 15 years - just allow things to let rip?
Apologies if it has already been discussed but Rasmussen has a new poll out on South Carolina
Obama 42, Clinton 30, Edwards 14
And some South Carolina TV stations have a poll out from Survey USA showing Obama with a 20 point lead over Hillary (50 to 30).
They have Huckabee up by 17 in the Republican race….
A 4 point Tory lead is remarkable in a holiday season poll when many Tories are out of the country. Look at what happened in July and August last year when we Tories went away, the Tory ratings fell sharply and Labour actually assumed the lead for a period of time through to late September.
If Labour can’t regain the lead with Tories on sunnier shores and the nation in its more forgiving festive slumbers then it really is curtains for Brown.
My tongue is only fractionally in my cheek…
Clinton: Barack Obama Hasn’t Done the Necessary “Spadework”
http://tinyurl.com/3yphvm
Guess that wraps it up, folks…
74 & Previous Posts - It’s surprising just how well Huck seems to be holding up in a number of polls. In the Presidential contest Betfair have him at 19-1 and approx half those odds with the bookies.
77. Rasmussen’s rolling national poll also has Huckabee as the Republican frontrunner. That’s two in one day…
Rod Crosby at 12 What I would like to know, with everyone else getting into it, why you are not saying
HUNG PARLIAMENT TO WINNN!!!!!!!! LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!
You know you want to!
The obituaries start…
http://www.hillaryproject.com/index.php?/en/story-details/what_the_heck_happened_to_hillary_clinton/
Just wait until the polls are run after bean’s latest round of tractor production updates
As well as no DC coverage over the past months, beans been hidden away, so everyone has forgotten how dull, boring and idea less he is
And one fine day, the electorate will ask themselves why an unelected leader from a foreign country, can issue dictats on health policy for England and Wales that have nothing to do with his own electorate. It will cause him no end of problems soon
Oh and lets pick a ruck with prison officers on top of the police and MP’s. Anything to do with the fact that the latter 2 cannot fight back and prison officers will have the law mashed in their faces. Real courage from bean and co
78 … Hmm interesting, well there have been no shortage of surprises over the past 3 or 4 weeks. I’m thinking that McCain, whilst a worthy and highly able candidate is just too short at around 6-1 for the Presidency. No one is as yet talking about his age (71), but as things get dirtier they surely will.
73 The last rate cut came after concerted pressure from bankers who had acted like, well, bankers, and been rather greedy, politicians looking for an easy way out and industrial bosses wanting a quick fix.
But the balance of payments is a nightmare showing massive declines in the last ten years to a positively frightening figure for 2006 and already worse for 2007.
The country, people and government are over-borrowed- much of the money coming from the carry trade and largely from Japan. So we are borrowing from one foreign source to buy goods we cannot afford from other foreign sources. Not a sustainable position.
Not really the best time to make borrowing cheaper so people and government can get even more indebted.
If rates go down the pound will suffer and increase inflation, perhaps make the early 70’s and Labour calling in the IMF look like a picnic.
Iron Chancellor or Jelly Bean PM?
Northern Wreck suggest that Brown cares more for short term votes than he does the economy. So expecting him to keep rates steady while cutting spending or raising taxes or both, seems unlikely.
If he is really tough he will take unpopular action to put the economy right, and if he does we might weather this storm with only limited damage. If he doesn’t then…….
Terrible front pages for Labour. According to Newsnight.
New donations row - Guardian.
Retails slump - FT.
Poll blow for Brown - Times.
The Times is the most interesting. They could easily have spun it in GB’s favour. “Gordon claws back lead”. But no. Methinks the Murdoch press has set its face against Gordo, and is just gagging to kick him during the Europe debates.
81 - go back to CCHQ you creature. Try an iota of criticism about your own camp if you want to come out to play. Or talk about betting.
And of course when a PM yesterday refused to say that 25 billion of taxpayers money lent to Northern Wreck is properly secured, you might begin to wonder whether he really has a grip on what is happening. Has the stress taken it toll on his financial nous?
Or was it Blair who guided the economy more than we thought?
SBS As I am sure you live by what you preach I look forward to your frequent criticism of Calamity Clegg and his policies.
Well Labour stuck on 33%, I don;t see much for Labour supporters to be happy about, quite honestly. yes, the Tory lead fallen somewhat, probably because of the new Liberal leader, but Labout are beginning to look suspiciously like they;re flatlining to me….
83 I guess whatever the BoE decides is somewhat irrelevent in the current climate with commercial interest rates so far ahead of the official base rate.
In your last para, are you saying we need some good old fashioned stonking tax increases?
89 PfP We need to balance the books and 45 billion in government borrowing, exceeding forecast by about 30% needs correcting as that forecast was set on the assumption of good times continuing.
As the tax take is likely to decline in the next couple of years in real terms then the borrowing will simply increase if there is no reduction in spending or increase in taxation.
The government like the rest of us is borrowing cheap to repay expensive as the repayments are more likely to be in Yen or Euros not Sterling.
I fear the government will not act until it is too late and that makes me very fearful.
87 - have already laid into Clegg in the last week over his attack on the Tories. Not quite on the scale I had a go at Ming (from just about the start) and Kennedy. Been cynical about today’s poll. Also dissented on nuclear power today too. Enough? I’m not on the payroll unlike some here!
I had a thought earlier today that the 1997 by-election in Winchester was the “real” election, and that the 1997 general election was therefore only a preliminary election - known as the “Old Hampshire Primary” (
ha ha ha/ groan - delete as applicable).Is there any sort of futures market / betting for the location of the next parliamentary by-election? I remember telling various people on numerous occasions in the last few years that Piara Khabra was hale and hearty, and would survive for ages, despite being the oldest MP. (About as accurate as most of my pb competition entries).
90. I have a horrible feeling that this week’s “news” - that Britons are richer per head than Americans - will be like the “sorpasso” in Italy.
Remember “il sorpasso”? It was the day, back in the late 80s, when Italy’s GDP was said to have overtaken Britain’s, for about the first time since the 17th century.
The Italian press went ape and Umberto Eco did some nude voguing on top of the Colosseum.
Virtually since that day, Italy has been in relative decline, and has recently been taken over by…. Spain…. in GDP per head.
I fear that Britain has had its “sorpasso” wig-out, and tomorrow we start on the downslope.
I hope not. But… hm.
92 - I guess you have a vested interest as you may already wish to start collecting nominations.
Most MPs are youngish and healthy these days. I would look for an MP going to a better job. None spring to mind… does somewhere warm need a Governor General / High Commissioner…?
88 - Yes, Labour seem well and truly stuck in their 30-33% box right now, and showing no signs of clambering out of it…
Latest polls - that Thompson barely breaks double figures in South Carolina, the area that he’s been focusing on, suggests that he may be gone by the end of next week.
The turning point is Obama taking a national lead, if that solidifies before Super-Duper-Tuesday it’s game over.
On the GOP betting, there’s value in Huckabee, if it gets down to two it’ll most likely be *either* McCain or Giuliani and Huckabee and his price will contract.
More obits…
http://www.hillaryproject.com/index.php?/en/story-details/hillary_clinton_in_meltdown_as_panic_grips_staff/
Mitt takes the Fifth…
http://www.gallup.com/poll/103615/Huckabee-Obama-Gain-National-Level.aspx
SBS Thanks, I was being a little the prefect myself.
“Mr Brown cannot brush aside this poll by invoking the long term. His reputation has been badly damaged by his recent troubles and mistakes. There are no signs of recovery.” Peter Riddell, The Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article3149353.ece
PERHAPS what Gordon Brown should do, is get invited to appear on the Oprah Winfrey Show.
Might do him a world of good.
Bullseye, from the last thread:
407. Yeah, whatever, someone stab me awake with a fork. If Obama takes NH by more than 5, then takes South Carolina by the predicted double digits, then takes Nevada - then Hillary is tumbledryer fluff.
Good. I’ve just seen her on CNN being interviewed about her “emotional outburst”. She said: “I normally don’t worry about myself, what gets me crying normally is when a guy drives all the way from New York to hug me and say Hillary your childcare plan saved my kid’s life, or when a mum embraces me and says I love the work you did on poverty it turned my life around”.
I’m not kidding. That’s what she said.
In other words she normally gets teary-eyed when other people hug her and tell her how wonderful she is, but this time she started crying cause someone told her how wonderful she is.
Ugh ugh ugh ugh ugh ugh ugh. What a repellent narcissistic preening old witch. Everything that is wrong with the babyboomer generation, the ME generation, is embodied in her tired, nauseating, idiotic, liberal-left vanity. Yuk.
Re the photo of Dave. Do I detect a receding hairline? Might he be balding come the General Election? A bad omen, perhaps?(!)
202 Your being too hard on the old girl. Hilary is in the fight of her life, and right now is getting a very severe kicking. So she’s fighting with every weapon she can grab hold of, and that includes tears & tugging at heart strings.
Is not attractive, but think “repellent” is way too strong, at least for the average voter. But that’s according to taste.
PROBLEM for Hilary is that her conduct is seriously counterproductive, esp. for a woman politico. Though not just women candidates: remember the bitter tears of ED MUSKIE falling on the New Hampshire snows?
I know I’m talking to meself, but I don’t mind! I’m on a weird new bodyclock. Good for the primaries.
Er, anyway, an interesting fact just now on CNN. The last time somebody won Iowa and NH and then did NOT go on to win the nomination, was in… 1972. And that, apparently, was a very unusual year due to joke candidates etc.
Ain’t looking good for the Hillary.
Go on, tell me this wasn’t staged…
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/01/07/hillary-heckled/
Desperate, truly desperate…
This woman is nuts…
104. OK, fair nuff. She’s maybe not entirely repellent, but that glimpse of her vanity WAS repellent.
She is a silly old boomer lefty feminist with way too much ME generation self pity. Take your punishment Hillary, and go gracefully, at least.
102. If Clinton loses New Hampshire it’s all over. However, I think Obama’s currently about 70% chance to win it, and if he wins New Hampshire by the current predictions it will be about 85-90%.
105 That’s odd, I’m sure I remember reading that Bill Clinton himself had a flat start in these States, although I appreciate you’re arguing from the opposite position, i.e. of someone having won both these States.
108 I believe I read PtP saying here earlier that you continued to favour Huck - is this correct, despite his lengthening odds for the Presidency?
105. Well, quite. That’s what CNN said anyway - and the guy further implied (without going into details) that 72 was basically a one-off, in recent history.
You win Iowa and you win NH and you very probably win the nomination. Interesting that no one else has pointed out this statistical truth.
haha SeanT - i’m on primary time too. which is annoying considering i suddenly have a course and work to go back to. At least I’m not on 4am debate time anymore like i was on the weekend…
Hillary is repellant, I agree. I have no sympathy for her at all. She’s just inhuman - even the shift to show the empathetic side of her since Iowa has been staged.
I am so pleased Obama is looking like he will win at the moment - and not just because it will hopefully bring some money in for me on the markets.
106. What in the world of flying invisible chocolate hippopotamuses is “Iron my shirt” supposed to mean? In what way is it supposedly “sexist”?
Oh, of course it was staged btw
At least I’m not on 4am debate time anymore like i was on the weekend
Ah, but there’s New Hampshire to keep you up half the night tomorrow!
Imagine if Maggie had started sobbing into her hanky in Basildon in, say, 1979. FFS. You are allowed to shed a silent tear about soldiers dying in wars you ordered; you are allowed to maybe cry if your son goes missing.
You are not allowed to cry if you are just a bit huffy and flustered and all, you know, stressed out coz you haven’t slept and my God you might actually lose and you SO deserve to be president coz you are a wonderful person and now that mean Obama has taken your rightful place sob sob sob.
Yeah, I think that’s true on the Dem side, although they had Carter and Clinton as incumbent presidents in two of those elections, so those don’t really count (it does on the GOP side though, cos Reagan gave Ford a right scare in 76). Not sure by itself that factoid means too much though - the Iowa winner doesn’t always win NH, and if they do it pretty much proves they are an extremely strong candidate, thus quite likely to win the nomination anyway.
There’s a little table of winners of Iowa/nh/nominee here:
http://rakesprogress.wordpress.com/2007/12/21/iowa-and-new-hampshires-track-records-in-picking-the-democratic-nominee/
Dems’ Iowa winner also wins NH 4 of 7 times since 72. As you say, only in 72 does the Iowa+NH winner fail to win the presidency.
Perhaps a better rule of thumb is that the NH winner also wins the nomination 5/7 times, and the exceptions are getting to be a while back (84 and 72).
Yes. damn. When will it all finish? Should be earlier than Iowa, right?
There are some new polls for the SC primaries:
Republican (19 Jan)
SUSA: Huckabee 36; Romney 19; McCain 17, Thompson 11, Giuliani 9, Paul 5
Democratic (26 Jan)
SUSA: Obama 50; Clinton 30; Edwards 16
Rasmussen: Obama 42; Clinton 30; Edwards 14
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com. My apologies if they have already been posted
Urrgh, I need sleep, NH’s record is 4/7 in picking nominees, same as Iowa’s.
109. You’re right, Clinton lost both in 1992. However, 1992 was also very exceptional; everyone conceded Iowa to its Senator, Tom Harkin, and ignored it (he won 76% of the vote), and the man who defeated Clinton in New Hampshire was Paul Tsongas, who was a former Senator from Massachusetts at a time when region mattered a lot more (and Clinton stumbled a few times).
117 Well yes, at least an hour, earlier as they’re only 5hrs, instead of 6hrs, behind GMT.
Just released minutes ago from http://www.rasmussenreports.com
SC (GOP): Huckabee 28; McCain 21; Romney 15; Thompson 11; Giuliani 10; Paul 4
I appreciate he’s not contesting these early States, but can Giuliani really afford to remain off the radar screens like this? This latest poll looks bad for Romney.
122. Can I just point out that the harsh question which provoked Mrs Clinton’s tears was, in full, this:
“How do you keep upbeat and so wonderful?”
Yes. I fear so. Appalling, isn’t it? Indeed I think it bears repetition so we can fully appreciate the nastiness. Here once more is the sentence that cracked the ice lady:
“How do you keep upbeat and so wonderful?”
You can see why she crumpled. She’s only human. Just the other day someone asked me; “Sean, why are you always so handsome and brilliant?” I confess, I had to turn away and bite a knuckle.
“Hillary, how do you manage to annoy so many people with your self pitying bilge, you dippy liberal ratbag? And who does your hair?”
You can see why she crumpled. She’s only human. Just the other day someone asked me; “Sean, why are you always so handsome and brilliant?” I confess, I had to turn away and bite a knuckle.
LOL - well, it was worth waiting up until 1.46 am to read the funniest post of the day!
Goodnight all.
102. 107. 115. 124. For goodness sake Sean - why can’t you just tell us what you think about Hillllary Cllllinton? The one thing that annoys me about this website more than anything else is the way you always dodge around with platitudes and euphemisms, and you bend over backwards to be fawning and trying to avoid causing offence. I suppose that in real life you’re probably an elderly sanctimonious old-fashioned buffoon who smiles patronisingly with your mouth closed like Bob Monkhouse did, and who stands up when a lady comes into the room, and writes pompous letters to local newspapers about the need to preserve the “moral fabric of society” and bemoans the abolition of nmational service, and plays golf and other reactionary things, and (is this enough?) er… continued on page 8537
Giuliani is toast UNLESS the GOP remains totally muddled through to Florida AND he can actually rustle up a LOT of votes in the Sunshine State.
The NY a-holes that are masterminding (?) the Giuliani believe Florida is a Promised Land, filled with ex-New Yorkers just waiting to vote for their favorite mayor since LaGuardia, as well as all those hawkish Cubans who don’t care about immigration or gun control but will like a touch guy they think might just kick Castro in the buttt. Plus state is less filled with hicks and Red Sox Fans than IA & NH and fewer religious nuts that SC.
HOWEVER there are several flies in their ointment.
For starters, average NYC retiree has NOT been sitting around waiting to vote for Rudy. They may like him, and might vote for him, but its not going to be a crusade or anything. PLUS most retireee from the Big Apple are registered DEMOCRATS and will vote in that primary. Cubans might find Rudy somewhat appealing, but hardly enough to start naming babies after him or to flock to the polls just to help him out of a jam. As for hicks & religious nuts (not to mention Sox fans) there’s plenty of THEM especially in North Florida which is a part of Planet Earth that might as well be the far side of Uranus for the Uranuses running Rudy’s campaign.
Biggest problem for Giuliani right now is that the likely Republican primary voters of Florida keep reading in their paper and seeing on their TV how Rudy is losing every state that votes big time. Which is NOT the traditional way to build your support!
Can’t see how Rudy can win the nomination, and many talking heads in US are saying the same thing.
102. Yes, she has an undeservedly high opinion of herself, but isn’t that kind of a prerequisite for running for POTUS? Her distinguishing flaw isn’t that she possesses this trait, it’s that she makes it so obvious. She’s a crap politician, basically, whose one good strategem was her marriage.
I get the feeling that whoever chose the candidates’ pics on this page isn’t a Thompson fan.
Just saw great PBS coverage from New Hampshire. Here are highlights (views expressed not necessarily but highly likely to be my own):
–Enthusiasm very high among NH Democratic candidates, campaigns and voters, much higher than GOP who continue to bitch about the lack of good choices.
–NH Secretary of State predicting record turnout tomorrow with good weather forecast (gets too good might send some voters fishing!)
–Gwen Ifel spoke about interviewing Hilary before & after her wee cry and the strains that all the candidates are under due to lack of sleep, Obama’s cough, sheer pressure. Ifel also spoke with Obama, said his reaction to Hilary’s cry was very sympathetic and to chalk it up to the killer schedule. Which was the nice and thus smart thing for him to say; never step in front of your own rocket.
–Death struggle between McCain and Romney because whoever is 2nd is in a world of hurt. Personally not so sure silver will be the kiss of death for either, but well could be. Would certain knock the stuffing out of Romney’s two state strategy.
–McCain looks like TR without the mustache and the hat. Clearly having a blast, frankly looks a bit too loose to me, not very presidential somehow. Voters cited his foreign policy experience, which is one of his advantages over the field. Looked to be more energy at his events that rival GOPers. Bunch of guys were running around with “Irish for McCain” signs so there goes the French Canadian vote.
–Speaking of colorful ethnics Rudy Giuliani’s pathetic NH numbers indicate that he’s probably not getting a plurality of even the Italian vote. For a guy who’s supposed to have great appeal to the entire Eastern Seaboard, this can NOT be a good sign. Also the Independent voter who went for Bush in 2000 but this year is torn between either McCain or Edwards; this guy said he went to Giuliani’s last NH event and “it was like a funeral”.
–Huckabee was show campaigning with guitar in hand, a groupie-for-Jaysus banging the tamborine and a small crowd enjoying the show; instead of a Bible reading the candidate stressed the rugged independence of NH whose stalwart Yankee forefathers; why he didn’t give honorable mention to Mom’s apple pie I’ll never know.
–Romney looked like a harried undertaker planning his own funeral. BUT he appeared to be drawing good crowds of reasonably attentive listeners. And THESE folks don’t care if he’s a Mormon or a Michigander. Seems clear that NH voters have had enough exposure to Romney to not judge him too much on surface appearance or first impressions. BUT the question is, can he sell himself as more than an successful business leader and governor, as a future President.
–Ron Paul was being Ron Paul, and the Paulistas were out in some force. Question that local GOPers are asking themselves is, who are these people? Which indicates that RP has capacity, like Obama, to draw new voters into the process. Clearly not as many as Obama, but how many?
Must say as Democrat just LOVE the weird way the GOP race is shaping up. IF McCain wins NH by a reasonable margin, and it truly is curtains for Romney THEN the Republican establishment will face a situation that is simply TERRIBLE from their perspective. Including the awful prospect of having to choose between Huckabee and McCain. The horror!
129 - My gawd, he looks like Uncle Fester on meth!
McCAIN and the WAR
Keep in mind that many Independents who voted for McCain in 2000 (and similar folks who didn’t vote them but will now) are today ANTI-WAR and thus are much LESS likely to be on his side today.
Doesn’t mean they don’t still respect the guy. Just that they won’t vote for him.
108, 110. I actually meant “If Clinton loses Nevada its all over.” She could still come back from a loss in New Hampshire (about a 10%-20% chance).
Regarding the GOP, I don’t fancy Huckabee to win it. I’ve just been arguing that he won’t be squeezed out, which means his odds will go up as the field narrows. If it comes down to him and one other candidate he will lose. If it comes down to him and nobody else manages to mop up the rest, he could get the nomination. I reckon its about 1 in 3 each for McCain and Giuliani (with a slight preference for the latter due to the way the system works) and 1 in 4 for Huck.
127. But the GOP race IS going to stay muddled until Florida. Romney is taking a kicking. Huckabee can’t break through a ceiling above the religious right. Most Republicans distrust McCain even if they agree with several of his views. Giuliani’s weak points - gun control and gay marriage - are overplayed in terms of their importance to most of the Republican base. They are minor annoyances to most conservatives (outside the evangelicals) - on everything else he strikes all the right notes. It’s also very possible Giuliani will take Nevada, keeping him alive and well until Florida. He also has four huge states in Florida, California, New York and New Jersey. That’s where a lot of the coverage will be in the run up to Super Tuesday.
Also on PBS tonight interesting interview with former US Sen. David Boren (D-OK) now chancellor of University of Oklahoma.
Boren spoke about today’s meeting in Norman, OK with Michael Bloomberg and other considering a independent presidential candidacy stressing need for bipartisan government. Meaning cabinet members from both parties and significant congressional cooperation.
Seemed to me that Boren was sending less-than-subtle signals that IF one of the major parties took the bait THEN Bloomberg won’t run.
Methinks that chances of Bloomberg running in any case are fading fast. Also that Obama and Huckabee might be able to commit to significant biparitisanism. So stay tuned.
134 With respect to your 2nd para:
–why do you think Giuliani will win Nevada? Lots of Mormon card dealers (casinos love ‘em) which has to help Romney, enough grumpy old men to give Thompson a slice, evangelicals (yes, even in the midst of sin) for Huckabee, McCain’s a neighbor and Paulistas are everywhere. So how does Rudy get to the top of THAT greasy poll?
–re: California, New Jersey and New York, IF Guiliani does well or at least reasonable, then indeed these state in particular MIGHT help him climb back into the race (that’s how serious I think his current situation is). BUT if on the other hand he does NOT achieve expectations (not sure what that number will be, media will tell us when time comes!) then am EXTREMELY doubful that CA, NJ or even NY can save him. For one thing, unless he romps to victory on either bank of the Hudson, media will pooh-pooh a semi-respectable finish, cause it is his home turf. While Californians will be moving on to the next trend, which by definition will NOT be Rudy.
–
134 Must also take issue with your statement that Rudy’s pro-gun control position is a “minor irritation” to conservatives. Hardly minor!
One of the MAJOR reasons why Gore & Kerry lost West Virginia & Ohio was because of all the good ole boys who truly BELIEVED that G & K were going to take away their guns.
Don’t you think that part of the reason Rudy’s tanking with voters so far, is NOT just his Big Apple vib OR his 3 wives OR his incredibly inept performance on the campaign trail, but ALSO his insistance on highlighting his significant policy differences re: immigration AND guns with red-meat conservatives.
Doesn’t mean they don’t respect the guy. Just that he’s making it VERY difficult to actually vote for him.
136. It’s a state with a lot of rural poor who aren’t religious. For Republicans that means patriotism - defending the country’s borders from those who hate America will go down well. In a libertarian state like Nevada right-wingers also believe you have to be tough to survive, like Giuliani. They want someone who will clean up the filth that they see from the drunks, the gambling addicts, the junkies and the hookers. Like Giuliani cleaned up NYC. And if you’re exposed to the severe social problems of places like Nevada, you either become determined to sort them out (and vote Democrat), or blame people for not pulling themselves out of it with a good dose of that particular brand of “F### You” Conservatism. Like an asshole New Yorker.
As for your second paragraph, yes, Giuliani stands or falls on Super Tuesday. He might fall. But I reckon there’s at least a 30% chance he won’t. With the lack of other choices available, someone who is tough on crime, tough on jihadists, tough on the snotty liberal establishment and big on patriotism might well find a footing with a Republican audience.
137. The affairs thing is big, which is why he isn’t way ahead. But I don’t think its as big as any of the other candidates weaknesses in the eyes of Republicans. Hunters aren’t like Evangelicals on a crusade with abortion, trying to overturn it everywhere. The Gun Lobby is, but hunters aren’t. They can overlook someone bringing in gun control elsewhere as long as he promises he won’t do it to them. Which Giuliani has. As for immigration, he’s far better than McCain and Huckabee, the two other candidates who can last.
138 - When have rural voters ANYWHERE started flocking to Rudy? His forays through Iowa were comic masterpieces that looked like old scripts for “Green Acres”.
And since when has NEVADA got lots of rural people? Maybe back when Ben Cartwright was running the Ponderosa. But not today. Over half total pop in Clark Co and lion’s share of that in Vegas & immediate environs; most of rest in Washoe, neither esp rural. Its one humongeous desert, only crops are sheep, cattle and used condoms.
As for rest of what you say about how Rudy’s going to sweep Nevada, think you’re smoking your shorts or something, really do.
139 Based on my own friendship with hunters in WV and other rural roosts, think you are totally off base IF you think they are going to vote for a gun control supporter IN A GOP PRIMARY. Perhaps in the general against a Democrat who might feck up the Supreme Court for the 2nd Amendment. But not in a primary.
As for immigration, you’re basically repeating Rudy’s press releases, which is NOT going to persuade people who are serious anti-immigrant to vote for a guy who BRAGS about letting illegals walk around the streets of New York.
Rudy seems to think the entire point of the primary nomination campaign is to get HIM nominated as quickly as possible so he can get to more important business. BUT that’s not how it works. For example, there are these pesky ISSUES. Now the Dems have lowered the issue threshold by mostly agreeing on them. BUT that is NOT the case with the GOP.
138 Socrates, please remind me to eat crow if Giuliani wins or even places in Nevada - you will deserve that.
RUDY GIULIANI = DOUGLAS MACARTHUR ???
Think there are interesting POLITICAL resemblances between these two presidential hopefuls who were both legends in their time AND legends in their mind.
–Both focused, charismatic, autocratic, fiercely driven men, obsessed with their public image and convinced they were destined for greatness
–Shared hatred of superiors, love of flunkies and anger at anyone who would dare to contradict or challenge them, including family members
–Shared belief that laws and regulations and rules MUST be obeyed . . . by others, but NOT themselves
–Eager obsession with and cultivation of massively hyped public image coupled with contempt and disdain for any journalist below the rank of publisher.
–Partly responsible for serious failure to adequately prepare for predictable (and predicted) sneak attacks against vital but vulnerable American targets (Mac = Manila 1941; G = NYC 2001)
–Nevertheless emerged from these very disasters as American heros at time of national tragedy & humiliation (Mac = “I shall return”; G = hero of 9/11)
–Even as many of the “little people” directly involved in these disasters very critical & bitter (Mac = the song “Doug Out Doug” popular with the soldiers left behind at Bataan & Corregidor; G = anger of many FDNY fire fighters & families)
–Considered unmistakable presidential timber by themselves, their entourages and multitude of GOP insiders, bigwigs, activists and ordinary citizens
–Disconnected from many aspects of mainstream American life due to elite lifestyles and most especially years of living exclusively in foreign lands (Mac = Manila, Tokyo; G = NYC)
–Came in near the bottom of the New Hampshire Republican Primary (Mac = 1952 3.5%; G = 2008 ??%)
In fairness to Gen. Macarthur, he did MUCH better in 1948, though the trend that year was not encouraging:
Wisconsin: Stassen 39%, Mac 34%, Dewey 25%
Illinois: Bender (favorite son) 97%, Mac 2%
Nebraska: Stassen 44%, Dewey 35%, Taft 12%, Vandenburg 5%, Mac 4% Warren 1%
New Jersey: Dewey 41%, Stassen 35%, Mac 8%, Vandenburg 6%, Taft 6%, Eisenhower 3%
PA was very confused, many candidate ran as write-ins, including winner Stassen; Macarthur was also a write-in candidate in PA got 7% for 4th place.
141 MUST ADD that both Macarthur and Giuliani have significant acheivements to their credit. Some with questions and issues around the edges (Macarthur New Guinea campaign WWII; Rudy 9/11) but nevertheless undeniable.
Also must admit that I’m seriously prejudiced agasint Gen. Mac because daddy was USMC and the Marines have NOT forgotten the Chosin Reservoir campaign -