The GOP Race: Why my money is on Rudy and Mike
January 8th, 2008
McCain is simply too old
With John McCain looking set for victory in the New Hampshire primary tomorrow night there’s been a big move towards him in the betting and he is now the solid favourite for the Republican nomination. I like McCain, I think he has acquitted himself well, but I can’t but believe that his age, 72 in August, is going to be a big issue which will be magnified if he’s facing Obama who is still in his mid-40s.
Romney now looks doomed which leaves the former favourite, Rudy Giuliani and the Iowa victor, Mike Huckabee. It is on these two where my money is going.
The humanity, the humour and the appeal of the ex-Mayor of New York came over well in the New Hampshire debate and he is going to take a lot of beating.
That leaves Mike Huckabee - the preacherman from Bill Clinton’s home town in Arkansas who pulled off the big victory in Iowa. The following was from Andrew Sullivan in the Sunday Times:-
In the wreckage of the post-Bush Republican party, Huckabee is the most talented natural politician. And he has taken Bushism to its logical conclusion…And, unlike Bush, Huckabee has combined a belief in the paternalist state with a hostility to Wall Street. He is a potential builder of a future Republicanism that is as socially conservative as it is economically populist: extremely hostile to illegal immigrants, gay couples and abortion, but just as angry at big corporations, free trade and the globalised gilded elites. In making the case against Mitt Romney � a multi-millionaire former business consultant � Huckabee argued that it was a choice between the bloke you work with and the man who sacks you..The simmering class resentment, which is just beneath the surface, clearly motivates his supporters. When they were attacked by Washington Republicans as know-nothings, they responded by surging to the polls. They can smell the condescension. And it angers them.
Huckabee can live with a fourth or fifth place in New Hampshire. He has his eyes firmly set on South Carolina next week. A win there could really set him up.
Mike Smithson
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Huckabee could be extremely interesting if it really looks like he might actually win the nomination. Given the already fragile state of US markets any chance of him winning will cause a run on the dollar/treasuries and a stock market crash. You can’t be sceptical of foreigners when they are all the keeps you from going down the plughole.
Since the US is a share owning country like no other I’m guessing he has no real chance of winning… I look for a chance to sell.
Interesting poll showing that Obama and McCain leads strongly in terms of “word of mouth” in NH.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/08mem107-%20f.pdf
First two NH results are in. Not a single vote for Hilary in Dixville Notch!
The results:
* John McCain 4 votes
* Mitt Romney 2 votes
* Rudy Giuliani 1 vote
* Barack Obama 7 votes
* John Edwards 2 votes
* Bill Richardson 1 vote
In Hart’s Location…
* McCain 6 votes
* Mike Huckabee 5 votes
* Ron Paul 4 votes
* Romney 1 vote
* Obama 9 votes
* Hillary Clinton 3 votes
* Edwards 1 vote
http://www.yourconcord.com/primaryblog/obama_mccain_carry_dixville_notch
Looking at the polls in South Carolina, Huckabee seems to be well in with a shout there of picking up a second win. Even so, I wouldn’t write off McCain by any means. I’m hesitant to argue against Mike’s thinking because he’s been right so many times, but I don’t think age is as important an issue as Mike’s making it out to be.
Yes, Obama does look to be in the lead and a good win in NH will reinforce that, but the race is a long way from being over and the GOP schedule is more compact than the Democrat one. Hillary has a chance to make back ground, though I don’t think she will because I think she’ll continue to get her tactics wrong - going negative against a message of hope is extremely difficult to get right. The point of my saying that is that a lot of GOP delegates will be decided before it is near enough confirmed who the Democrat candidate will be, which I don’t expect to happen before Super Tuesday (remember, Hillary still has decent figures across other states, though whether that will hold up is uncertain).
The other point on age is historical. In the last seven elections, the Republicans have chosen Reagan (69, 73), GHW Bush (64, 68), Dole (73), and GW Bush (54, 58). This is not a party averse to picking old men. In that time, only one Democrat has beaten any of them.
Can Giuliani get back into it? Yes, he can. The luck has fallen his way with no clear winner likely to emerge from the first month (he himself, by the way, is a couple of decades older than Obama, so if the age factor is valid for McCain, then it is also valid for Rudi). I do agree with Mike’s assessment that he stands a very realistic chance of getting the nomination.
One question for our US experts - though this is probably the wrong time of day to ask it - how do they see the likely breaks if no candidate gets the delegates needed. I get the impression that Huckabee will struggle to win over enough senior Republicans at the convention if he doesn’t go there virtually assured of a victory; McCain or Giuliani (or even Romney, though the chances of him staying in that far are slim) would look to be more acceptable.
Pretty much agree with the comments above. I think the GOP nomination is going to come down to Huckabee vs either Guiliani or McCain, depending on who comes out of Super Tuesday as the more plausible ’secular’ rival.
Huckabee is in a way the GOP answer to Obama - both of them resemble Reagan in the way that people think they’re good-humoured, likeable, positive people. The Betfair price of 25-1 against Huck being the next President looks awfully generous (much better than the 6-1 against being the nominee), and likely to come in. But there are a lot of GOP voters who really aren’t keen on making the party the political wing of the evangelical movement, and I suspect that Guiliani or McCain will prevail in the end.
What time do the results start coming in tonight? I’m minded to agree with both David and Nick (4 & 5), however much it pains me to disagree with Mike on the age factor.
Dixville & Hart’s Location are 2 of 299 polling places reporting, am ready to call Dem race for Obama - does that qualify me for “forecaster of the year’???
McCain also in great shape, and Rudy showing surprising rural strength!!!
BTW, polling hours in NH vary from town-to-town. Beside Dixville & Hart’s Location, earliest start at 6am, some don’t open until as late as 11am. Most close at 7pm though a few go to 8pm
7 — Thanks. Will they take a similar amount of time to count as the Republicans at Iowa?
7 Results should start coming in shortly after 7pm and pretty quickly from then on.
Don’t know when exit polling is official released; would expect that numbers will leak out to campaign insiders and potentially into blogosphere.
Would expect speeches at say 11pm which is normal time local TV news in Eastern timezone
Sure looks like Mitt is in extremis. Which does seem to leave just Giuliani as the great White Hope for the GOP establishment.
HOWEVER still think that the GOP base is seriously allergic to Rudy. Yes, they can take their shots, grit their teeth and vote for him in November IF they have to. BUT still doubt they will flock to vote for him in a GOP primary IF there is a better choice.
And for lots of average GOP base voters who do NOT own stock in Haliburton and NEVER had Jack Abramoff’s number on the speed dial, well Hucakbee and even McCain are just going to be more palatable that Giuliani. So will take establishment a LOT of soothing syrup, just not sure they’ve got enough in stock.
10 Which means I’m looking for the GOP establishment to try to resurrect Mitt Romney. Lord knows he looks like he’s one of the Walking Dead anyway, guy could make a living imitating Herman Munster.
So let’s say they keep Mitt on ice a bit, let him lick his wounds, see how he’s polling in SC, start doing some heavy lifting in NV, Mich, FL, get the dirty tricks brigade working, get Karl Rove to put his thinking cap back on.
Its NOT because these guys can’t deal with Rudy. They don’t trust him as far as they can throw him (quite wisely) BUT he passes the sniff test, if just. Problem is getting the base to buy Rudy, which is not impossible just a hard sell, esp if Giuliani refuses to listen to anyone who lives west of the Hudson or south of Staten Island.
The GOP race bewilders me. Like an early season Graded steeplechase, none of the runners looks good enough yet one of the horses has to win the race.
The Democrats look better if not clearer. All three look good enough and better than the last couple of candidates.
1. Why such terror on Wall Street. ‘Tis not so directly tied to GOP establishment as in yesteryear; most of the really smart money boys & girls are Democrats (Rubin & Corzine being just two of most prominent examples). Heck ANYONE would be an improvement after W’s criminally incompentent management of the US economy; the LOONIE’s at par fer Jaysus sake!
Think I agree with Mike on the two most likely to come through, and a surge from either just before super Tuesday should get them over the line.
Interesting aside from Hillary quoted in the Guardian:
“Whatever happens tomorrow, we’re going on,” she told CBS television this morning. “And we’re going to keep going until the end of the process on February 5th.”
The article says the Clinton campaign are bargaining for les in NH and SC, but hoping to win up to 5 of the big 6 states on Feb 5. The corollary of the above seems to be that if she doesn’t do well on Feb 5, that’s it. Seems a realistic assessment.
15: “losses” not “les”
I’m not so sure Mike. I think that if Huckabee takes SC (Michigan would be nice, but he doesn’t need it), he carries so much momentum into Florida and Rudy loses. Then the press pounce (much like they did on Hilary after Iowa) and say that his strategy hasn’t worked and he’s a loser. Rudy will win NY and NJ, but will have serious problems with states like Illinois and California. Whether the voters will let McCain have a shot is still an open question.
13. We seem to have a US version of Snowflake developing…
Re. 11, I saw on Fox News that Romney scored well with Frank Lunz’s post-debate focus group, which will encourage anyone in the GOP establishment who wants to resurrect him in a tied convention.
American candidates’ positions on space flight and research:
http://www.space.com/news/071231-candidate-positions.html
Richard (Original) @ 19 re Luntz. There seems to be a small controversy about Luntz in the US after viewers recognised one of his focus group participants from a previous group. I’ve not been paying attention but I’m sure google has.
McCain’s age will be less of a factor if he continues to be the most energetic campaigner over there.
20 — Americans who want to grow up to be an astronaut should not vote for McCain, Paul or Obama.
11 Sea Shanty, I like the assessment. It’s probably as likely as any of the other many permutations in the GOP race!
The times has been very harsh on Brown with this new poll, which I was surprised about. It didn’t seem that it was that bad for him, instead they’ve concentrated on Camerons growing leadership polling.
Hillary’s new, Giuliani-esque big state strategy will struggle if she can’t keep competitive with Obama in the fundraising stakes:
http://tinyurl.com/yuts38
20 excellent - are you, like me, a closet space cadet?
Not mentioned in article but Bill Richardson is the big hope for us. He sponsored the New Mexico spaceport and is known to be a big fan of the alt-spacers. Traditionally the vice president gets to oversee NASA and space policy - so Bill for VP is our best hope
25 - hooray, a non-US elections post! Congratulations…
I know that the US elections are of great interest generally on both sides of the Pond, and I’m taking great delight in watching the Hillary campaign implode and the fresh new face of Obama build up unstoppable momentum, but for those of us not particularly interested in the minutiae of single figure returns from Dixville West, the site has become a no-go area of late.
Could we not have a “PBUS.com” mini-site set up for the duration?
In Britain, voters seem to be disillusioned with Labour rather than enthused by Tories. Probably the biggest factor is the economy (life is tough at the bottom) rather than whether the Prime Minister’s hand shakes at PMQs.
The moral of the story is that the government should cancel its planned frenzy of ill-thought-out but eye-catching and headline grabbing initiatives, particularly where these might upset or offend its own supporters (even the fat, unacademic ones who work in the public sector or claim benefits).
28. At the risk of pre-empting PtP, this is a political betting site. The US election is where the betting is.
28 I don’t know about the others but I’m as happy to discuss UK politics as US. There’s just not much happening in the UK with the recess, and the US has been busy and interesting. If you were to initiate a discussion, I’m sure we could cope as well as normal with parallel conversations running on the thread.
(PS And these comments are underneath Mike’s post on the US elections…)
28 - 30 - I am sure there will be pbuk threads from time to time. Traditionally the US primaries drag on for ages, but with a supercalafragalisticexpialidocious (sp?) Tuesday in Feb, it will be over (for the time being) very quickly. Patience, Bob!
Interestingly, Fred Thompson is using his third place finish in Iowa as a springboard in South Carolina (he’s bypassed NH completely). Probably his best strategy but even his long odds don’t offer much value right now.
Couldn’t comment on Populus poll, (Dear wife in hosp, for small op, very impressed by hospital) polls taken at this time of year, large dose of salt required. Even so probably confirms what we all suspect: Brown damaged, but not perhaps fatally, Cameron looks interesting, but voters still not sure, Clegg who knows? Everything to play for!
28 Not ever so slightly anti-American, are we Bob?
Ant @ 33 re Fred Thompson. It does show we need to be wary of the frequent reports that Fred plans to drop out “tomorrow”.
36 Apparently they emanated from the Romney campaign!
And talking of Romney, is anybody able to find his current prices (esp for NH) and if there has been any movement? Recent polls suggest that Romney might have clawed back a couple of points on McCain and today’s result could be closer than some are expecting. I can’t access the relevant sites from work but it would be interesting to know whether this is reflected in the prices (and whether they are generous enough to validate a value bet on either Romney for NH or Romney for president)…?
There are plenty of sites to discuss UK politics. But we do seem to be entering the most boring year in UK politics for some time in betting terms - none of the leaders are under immediate threat and there is no immediate prospect of a general election. Only the mayoral election might come as light relief - and of course a week is a long time etc.
Meanwhile, for the next month at least we have the most interesting Presidential Primaries season in many years, and then an interesting election in November with plenty of thrills and spills along the way!
35 …..and with absolutely no interest in betting?
O/T, but how’s this for one of the best political put-downs of all time/ Reported by the BBC Correspondent in NH last night,
“There is something about Hillary that reminds American men of their first wives”.
32. Not necessarily. I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought the odds on a contested GOP convention were about 4/1 (which I’m defining as there being no clear winner at the end of the primaries and caucuses). Although I still think it won’t happen, I’d now put it at about 5/2.
I am interested in US politics, however UK politics is far more interesting in general for me. These initiatives by the government seem like headline grabbing rather than well thought out, helping out Brown’s re-launch. The tory ones are more based on fleshing out their policies, something people have been clammoring for Cameron to do for ages.
I think we need to be catreful sabout tjhso obsession with age.
I don’t think the USA is quite so concerned as a whole about this in their politicians.
Secondly, older people are an ever greater proportion of most weatern countries and often tend to be more relaibale when it comes to voting.
Just because eejits in the Uk dump politicians because, apparently, their age doesn’t mean every nation is so stupid.
Heads on blocks lads, will McCain do it tonight?
For the sake of many a pocket, lets hope so.
Pleasing to see that Mike agrees with my posts last night on Huck’s stand out value on Betfair (#77) and McCain’s as yet largely ignored age factor (#82).
42 I agree. It’s difficult to see why anybody would get particularly excited or agitated by the new initiatives (even if several sources hadn’t already decried them as re-announements).
I think the only way Brown can regain his poll position is to bring out an idea that captures the imagination of the electorate. But I’m not sure what that would be - or even if he would be able to deliver it in anything other than a boring manner. But I hope he can.
43. I tend to agree, although I would hazard a guess - I haven’t got anything to back this up - that the trend in the Senate has been for younger first-time candidates.
45 Peter - it’s difficult to argue against Huck’s price right now. Even if he does turn out to be a bust (and that’s looking a bigger “if” by the day), his price is likely to tighten before it soars.
Am I the only one, or is there something strangely compelling about Mike Huckabee, despite some pretty reactionary policy positions? A Huckabee -v- Obama contest could be quite entertaining.
47 Ant - Yep, betting on Huck is surely all about timing -he’s never going to make it to the White House, but is currently making a good fist of things. As Mr Kenny Rogers once said “you’ve gotta know when to fold ‘em.
There is, when you look at the next set of primaruies, a logic to backing Huckabee now because he is in decent positions in NV, SC & MI and coudl possibly take 1 or 2 of those states.
Still can’t see him winning the nomination though.
50 I can’t see it either. But if he does well in 2 of NV, SC and MI, he’ll be going into Super Tuesday with a head of steam, and don’t forget that there are a good number of southern states voting that day. Plus the polls showed that he was pushing Giuliani in Florida even before the Iowa victory. The schedule actually works well for him.
49 exactly. I think that picking up Huckabee now and laying off on the eve of Florida (I’m pretty sure he’ll be at least neck and neck with Giuliani in the polls), or after the Florida results, will probably give the safest chance of decent profits on him.
48 He is utterly charming, Jonathan. If you haven’t seen it already, treat yourself to watching his Iowa victory speech. It’s on YouTube.
Like it or not, the next nine months will have as much importance to the UK as a London mayor race.
48 - if he wasn’t so evangelical, he could easily be a frontrunner. Possible VP for a more secular GOP candidate?
39 - well, this site did encourage me to place my one and only political bet, the day before the 2005 GE. It was a “protective” bet I was only too happy to lose..
44 Yes, he will Yokel.
It might be fairly close but he’ll be OK. He’s trading at 78/85 on Intrade at the moment. Not a gimme but solid enough.
55 - I placed my first political bet a couple of days ago thanks to reading this place for a good while.
Thankfully, it was only a couple of quid
48,50&51 Well guys, he’s still at 24-1 on Betfair for the top job (I’ve just bought a slice) and that’s double or treble his 8-1 and 10-1 prices with the bookies.
57 Good luck a & d! Was this with Betfair or a bookie?
If one were to lay a candidate for President who later drops out of the race, when would payouts on BF be made?
60 If it were a formal and irreversible withdrawal, I would expect Betfair to credit winning bets at that time, but from past experience, they only need the most remote of reasons to hold onto your cash!
57 - Betfair.
First time I’ve ever used them, so it’s a trial and error thing if anything. Plus it was a free £5 so nothing lost.
For the record, I put two separate bets on the Republican nominee : I backed Rudy at 3.55 and I backed McCain at 3.0
Both are really gut feeling wagers, especially Rudy. But you’ve got to learn…
59 Congratulations A&D! Going to tell us what it was?
London Mayor: Boris wrote an article in the Standard yesterday. Here is a Standard story about it. Notice that the first comment is by LibDem candidate Brian Paddick (who really can’t win while we need to write his full name).
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23431064-details/Get+a+grip+on+London%27s+gang+violence%2C+Boris+challenges+Ken/article.do
PtP @ 53 re Huck’s charm. Indeed, anyone who backed Obama because of his inspiring speeches must also be on Huckabee for the GOP nomination. And Mike Smithson tipped both at 50/1 each.
46. Brown has never been in this position before. During his 10 years as chancellor when things got rough he could always hide out of the way somewhere. He’s never had to go through a weekly grilling, or had to try and weather the storm from the prow, rather than the lifeboat at the back. He is showing by his constant new announcements that he’s trying to deflect criticism by bringing in new policies, which won’t work that well. When the pressure is on is the time he looks most vulnerable, always has done, probably why he avoided the limelight when under pressure before.
How the Dail Mash, (the only paper worth reading) sees Hillary’s campaign.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/
Thanks for the YouTube tip, I caught a clip of the speech on the news, but the whole thing is definitely worth a look. He is indeed charming, the antidote to the slick polished types likes of Romney and dare I say it Cameron. Obama looks totally OTT, almost messianic, in comparison.
Overall, I think I am developing a guilty little secret. I may even follow your tip, it will quite fun to bet on a preacher! Still hope that the Dems and probably Obama will ultimately win it.
64. Paddick surely didn’t write that post, did he? It looks desperate…
68 Jonathan
The two victory speeches, from Huckabee and Obama, make an interesting and instructive comparison. Huckabee has true magic. It’s easy to see why so many people adore him. Obama’s was more Presidential.
I am sure Huckabee can go quite a long way and it should be a fun ride for his backers. I don’t think he can go all the way though. Obama definitely can.
56. He had better or I’ll go over and kick his gammy leg.
Looking at soem analysis, Romney & McCain are spliting the available registered Republicans fairly evenly with McCain unsurprisingly ahead amongst indos.
As regards Huckabee, one other thing to note. In Iowa there was suggestions of some transfer between his support and Big Fred’s whilst Romney & McCain’s support was showing some signs of direct transfer as well.
69 - what “Paddick” says there is all well and good, but if it is him posting there it is a poor tactic.
I am reminded of David Rendell being in the QT audience in Newbury after losing his seat and wanting to raise points from the floor.
71 LOL!
Yokel.
It shouldn’t be necessary. He’s shortening a touch on Intrade now and I’ve no doubt he’ll bring home the bacon for us - and Casino Royale, for whom I feel a kind of paternalistic responsibility.
Clearly Obama is a more serious candidate than Huck. But the Huck and Chuck dream ticket could be very entertaining if it made it through.
What does this internal party review mean for the Lib Dems? Root and branch improvements or upheaval?
Also Clegg appears to have lowered his target for Lib Dems to just 120+ MPs within 2 more parliaments?
“Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg today announced the formation of a new body to ensure he can meet his commitment to more than double the party’s representation in Westminster within two General Elections.”
“The commission has a wide-ranging remit to look at all aspects of party organisation from structure to campaign capability.”
Also reappointed “Chris Rennard, Chair of the General Election Campaign”
http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/clegg-announces-formation-of-party-reform-commission.13699.html
OT- Gold hits yet another record high ($872). Any chance the media will ever pick up on this story, maybe if they feel like another “Bash Brown Day”?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7176504.stm
76. Gold prices were over $3000 in the late middle ages, so this isn’t even close to a record high.
Has anyone seen the clip that is circulating the web of Huckabee praising Canada’s national igloo? Good to see be will be a worthy successor to Bush.
77- I guess Oil was alot more expensive back then too?
73. “..and Casino Royale, for whom I feel a kind of paternalistic responsibility. ”
Aww, I’m touched Peter!!
The fact I’m in my 30s doesn’t make this peculiar in the slightest - I’ll look after your tips when you’re in the care home decades hence, don’t you worry
75 - what concerns me about Clegg is his big announcement about breaking two party politics for good. We have heard this before! Hardly a big idea.
He also says he want to replace it with three party politics. This would hardly be a big change. Should he not have said “multi-party politics”? It sounds a bit self-interested for the LDs to say that.
Had a small punt on Huckabee. He’s 5.7 for the candidacy; Reps are 2.68 to win the presidency, but he’s still 24 to be next president. This suggests either:-
a) 24 is great value
b) he is more likely to make the Reps lose than other candidates
c) or a bit of both
81. Clegg seems to be following his friend Brown in specialising in boring reannouncements and tired sloganising.
77 Out of interest, how do you work that out? I had always understood that the price of gold was pretty stable for hundreds of years.
80 Thank you, Casino. I am particularly concerned about my bet on Scotland becoming independent of the UK by 2017 - £100 at 33/1. Would you mind collecting it for me, and putting it towards the nursing fees?
82. Speaking of “24″, is anyone else here a “24″ fan??
I don’t know if it’s the fantastical side of my brain kicking in, but I recall from Season 1 of 24 that David Palmer (which kinda rhymes with Barack Obama) was the target of an assassination attempt.
No seriously, part of me *IS* worried that some nutter (redneck or otherwise) could try an assassination attempt for obvious reasons.
It is for this reason that I will hedge Obama to cover myself so I’m not totally exposed, should the very worst happen.
im sure someone must have already said, but Ronald Reagan turned 70 a few weeks after taking office. And that’s 1981. Being 72 in 2008 can’t be compared with being 70 in 1981; as in, Reagan was MUCH older than McCain.
So I don’t think that age can be much of a factor in the GOP race itself; but I agree, once’s the race will be influenced by who’s winning the other one, that might count. than again, mccain can play the veteran card (where was obama when mccain was prisoner? kindergarden?) it didn’t help kerry, though, last time around…
Nice to see Sporting Index still havent got their Presdiential market spread back up.
82 SBS
Yes, I’m inclined to agree but can’t bring myself to punt on that one because of an irritating complication. There’s just a chance Bloomberg and/or Paul will run as Independents. Some US posters here say it will make no difference but I’m not so sure. I reckon it could seriously damage Republican chances.
I know it’s unlikely either will stand, but the position is totally clear, it’s no bet for me.
86- The following post takes place between the hours of 11:34am and 11:35am in the Greater London Area.
I think I remember reading that Obama has had seceret service protection for awhile, still doesnt guarantee some nutter wont get lucky. Of course you could say that about any of the candidates really, hell I’m amaized Bush wasnt hit!
85. No problemo.
I also have a bet of £50 at 600/1 with Ladbrookes that the British Empire will be reestablished in its entirety, as a confederal union of imperial states by 2050, with Princess Beatrice as Queen Empress of India.
Posthumously, could you arrange for one of your sons to do the honours for me?
88 They completely bolloxed that up, didn’t they.
I grabbed a little bit of the value, but I think you did better?
84. Prices dropped significantly after the Spanish opened up the supply from the New World in the 16th century - previously most European supply had come from dwindling mining activities in central Europe. Prices were then relatively stable until the 20th century.
Anyone know where the GOP voters went in Dixville Notch? Why only 7 votes cast compared to the usual 22/23?
91 Sure. I have but one son, but he’s very reliable.
Where should he forward the proceeds to - heaven or the other place?
81. Yeah, I noticed that. Campbell and Kennedy before him said the same thing, both failed in the end. It’s now just become something each ib dem leader has to say, kind of rite of passage.
90. “86- The following post takes place between the hours of 11:34am and 11:35am in the Greater London Area.”
Sorry, something’s distracted me…. hold on…. OH NO, DON’T!! PLEASE, NO!! NOOO!!! ARRGGGGGHHHH!!!
11:40:32 BING! 11:40:33 BONG! 11:40:34 BING! 11:40:35 BONG! 11:40:36 BING! 11:40:37 BONG! 11:40:38 BING!…..
96 - as a LD I don’t believe in two-party politics. Or in three-party politics, necessarily.
But what Clegg is saying is slightly better than “we will replace X party…”
95. Not the “other place”.
I’m pretty sure they’ll have removed all of my hereditaries by then and I don’t think any of these elected “chumps” deserve the cash.
Current best odds, with implied odds to win the Presidency if successful in the nomination.
Obama Nom 1/2, Pres 2/5, Double 11/10
Clinton Nom 11/4 Pres 4/9, Double 9/2
Mc Cain Nom 2/1 Pres 6/4, Double 13/2
GuilianiNom 11/4 Pres 2/1, Double 10/1
HuckabeeNom 9/2 Pres 7/2, Double 23/1
Romney Nom 13/2 Pres 7/2, Double 33/1
The second part of the double looks about right to me except for Guiliani. I would have him 6/4-7/4 to win the Presidency against any Democrat at this stage. If Obama then I would rate him 9/4 and if Clinton nearer Evens.
The 10/1 with Paddy Power for Guiliani to be next President looks like today’s value bet. I’ve had some.
99 No, I was thinking of the one with lots of fire and brimstone and the like. If you’re planning to go there, I can keep a place warm for you.
98. the lib dems became obsessed with neutralizing the tories, and it spectacularly backfired on them. Now they have far fewer councillours and councils than the tories, and have slid back down the polls. Targetting the main opposition party rather than the government wasn’t a good idea then so whether it will be now is yet to be seen.
100. Also probably some value in Mccain at 13/2 for the Presidency but my book is fairly full up on him already.
100 - this is interesting.
How much of the selection from here on in will be based on thinking who the likely opponent in November will be? If Obama is clearly going to be the Dem candidate, might the Rep convention bear this in mind when it meets?
I think of scissor paper stone - or the Ryder Cup captains picking the order on the last day for the singles. Both of these are done blind.
For those of you betting on the primaries, I think you must read the link below and decide how you think it’ll affect the results. I think it requires modifying the traditional momentum theories, especially going into Feb 5. I’m not sure though if the beneficiaries will be the Iowa/NH winners (McCain, Huck, Obama) or those who have been riding higher in the national polls (particularly Clinton, Giuliani). Any thoughts? Or is it a red herring?
http://tinyurl.com/2fjkya
101. Yeah, so was I
Anyway, yeah, eternal damnation in hell??
Sounds like a laugh.. I’m game!
Count me in…
104 Yes, it’s been discussed here before, SBS.
One small advantage the GOP now has is that it can start to work on the basis it will be facing Obama. That suggests to me that Romney is no longer an option. Huckabee might be. He’d be fun, and would lose with dignity, but it would be like admitting it couldn’t win.
McCain and Guiliani would hold out the (albeit slim) prospect of winning. We are all familiar with the problems the GOP has with those two, but it may just be preapared to hold its nose and nominate one of them, rather than go down in flames against Obama.
Nothing is certain in politics though and it’s by no means unknown for a Party to nominate a completely unelectable bozo rather than compromise its purity.
Didn’t the Conservatives once elect a guy named Smith?
106 Great. I understand it’s a bit warm, but the gambling scene is terrific down there.
Couple NH polls from Sunday/Monday:
Suffolk: Romney+4, Obama+5
American Res: McCain +7, Obama +9
Suffolk have been consistently wildly different from every other pollster out there, and were rated very poorly by their peers in that survey someone here posted. They’re also the only ones giving Romney a lead (and have done in their last 5 polls). Perhaps they are undercounting independents?
For completeness, American Res were also rated very poorly (they had mcain +14 on friday/saturday!) by said survey:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_n.php
NH rep polls vs those (net) pollster ratings, latest one from each post-Iowa:
Suffolk Romney+4 -22
AmericanRes McCain+7 -40
CNN McCain+5 +46
Marist McCain+4 +22
Ramussen McCain+1 -14
FranklinPierce McCain+9 -19
Zogby McCain+5 -71 (!!)
There are also Gallup’s McCain+4, Fox’s McCain+7, and Strat Vision’s McCain +7 (they are a Republican pollster if I remember right, although some might say that of Fox too!)
McCain’s RCP lead is 2.7 points, but that’s screwed a bit by the Suffolk poll above.
Just found these pretty graphs:
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
105 Sorry Ant, but the national polls are an irrelevance at present and will remain so for a little while yet.
108 - You can win big downstairs - but the Devil never lets you cash in your chips….
Here is my stab at the Nominations and the Presidency prices at this stage
Dems Obama 1/3 Clinton 3/1
GOP McCain 11/8 Guiliani 9/4 Huckabee 4/1 Romney 11/1
President Obama 8/11 Clinton 9/2 McCain 5/1 Huckabee 19/1 Romney 40/1
“Wide-open race may be Romney’s savior”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-romney8jan08,1,802869.story?coll=la-headlines-nation&ctrack=1&cset=true
You think Brits have it bad over elections - a Brit in the U.S. wow this is none stop - and this is only the primaries - we live in the suburbs of Minneapolis - and our local t.v. extends into 2 other congressional districts - so we get ads not just for our local candidate but 2 others as well - and then we have got a close Senate election with Coleman v. ? and the Presidential election - and most probably more besides - and on July 4th we have our parade and most of the local candidates will be in it - yards will be full of yard signs - the bigger the better for some folks - elections here are so long and never ending …
regarding Clegg’s new target of 120+ MPs within 2 elections what is the next GE level against which Clegg will be assessed?
60+ MPs Clegg stays, under 60 MPs then Clegg has to step down?
Duh, got cut off. Meant to add: Suffolk also are consistently very low on the Obama lead, which further suggests they’re underrepresenting independents. They actually had Clinton+16 on the 1st/2nd, +12 on the 2nd/3rd. Mason-Dixon on the 2nd-4th had Obama +2,
and yes we are contemplating if Obama wins will we get our Obama yard sign - to go along with a Senate and House sign - most probably the answer is yes - we will most probably sign up at the State Fair in late August - and I forgot we also get the Republican Convention in the Twin Cities from September 1 - September 4 -
112. I missed out Guiliani. Should read
President Obama 4/5, Clinton 5/1, McCain 5/1, Guiliani 7/1, Huckabee 20/1, Romney 40/1.
115 - doubt he’d step down in a hurry. Christ, if he stepped down in 2009 or 2010 on the back of some losses in a GE, that would be too many leaders too quickly. Cameron is in a similar position with the Tories - he simply can’t go even if he does badly.
“McCain Emerging as Establishment Pick?”
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/01/mccain_emerging_as_establishme.html
110 Peter - I always thought they were irrelevant and my gut still agrees with you. But you still think they’re useless despite the story that tens of thousands of primary voters have already voted in states that are meant to come after Iowa or NH (big Super Tuesday states)?
100 The 10/1 with Paddy Power for Guiliani to be next President looks like today’s value bet
Looks like you were right stjohn - he’s shortened to 7-1 with PP now. Best odds are with Betfair at 8.6-1
Clegg (like Cameron) is pretty much a two election deal. Both parties having changed leaders frequently can’t be seen to dump someone again without a fair run at it.
One reason why McCain may look good in the near future is that he hasn’t committed to run past one term. If people think that Iraq needs to be finally put to bed then they might go for that with an eye on a ‘new future’ candidate after that.
Reuters/Zogby McCain +9, Obama +13
Zogby polls get a bit of a bashing all over the place, but they were very accurate in Iowa: in particular with Huckabee’s big lead, Paul’s %, and getting Obama’s +7 right (although the Dem side is more about predicting 2nd choice split)
so the consensus seems to be that McCain’s ok today
122. Guiliani is still 10/1 with Paddy Power for the Presidency as far as I can see PfP. I’ve backed him to cover my positions on Obama and McCain. I’m very RED on Clinton.
122 PtP check again
I got 10/1 30 seconds ago
109 Andrew
I’d disregard Suffolk and Argh. Best check at this juncture is Intrade, where I am pleased to note McCain is firming up.
Survey USA has done a poll in the important swing state Ohio. McCain leads Obama by 6, Huckabee even and Romney/Guiliani trailing badly.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
129 very interesting. Though IIRC, SurveyUSA was consistently a few points out of kilter from the rest of the pollsters (and most of the results) in advance of the Congressional elections in 2006…
125 Yes.
126 & 127 Thanks Guys - I was relying on Oddschecker’s incorrect data - when I went onto PP itself, the price had changed to 17/2. It’s not my day!
Sorry to seem ungrateful Gabriel, but I’m afraid you face the customary fine of £1 (towards the forthcoming party funds) for confusing me with PtP.
127 £1 into the Party box please, Gabriel.
127. Now it’s gone gabriel. Moved in to 17/2.
129. Not too many undecideds there.
John mccain 2/1 Lads for anyone who wants to defy Mike
If you’re limited online, worth ringing them up to get more on btw
15/8 Obama 35-39.99 @ lads is great value imo
6 out of 8 of the polling results on Realclearpolitics would make the bet a winner
Just been looking at Intrade’s prices for The SC Republican Primary. John McCain current bid price is 17.6 and ask price is 25 but last matched at 40.0? Conversely the Field,(Huckabee), has a bid price of 65.5 and an ask price 74.6 but was last matched at 43.0.
Still getting my head around Intrade but this looks a bit odd to me. Can any one explain?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary
Final Rasmussen NH poll has Obama up 7. Obama 37, Clinton 30, Edwards 19. That’s a slight narrowing of the gap for the second day in a row. Yesterday Obama was up 10, the day before up 12.
It looks like Clinton will lose but the size of the gap is important. Clinton needs to stay over 30 and keep Obama under 40. There is a bit of a breathing space after NH and the chance for Clinton to come back but her last stands will be in Nevada and South Carolina - if she loses those she’ll surely be finished.
129 - They have also released one on Iowa showing Obama with massive leads over everyone. He leads Guiliani by 40, Romney by 26, Huckabee by 23 and McCain by 17. These are patently ridiculous, but even if a rogue suggest Obama has a solid lead. This is promising for him. Iowa has been most exposed to all the candidates. This suggests as people become acquainted with the field they become more likely to support Obama.
139 - The key is the independents, how many will go vote in the GOP primary as they see the Dem one as a foregone conclusion? May a contraction of Obama’s lead be partly down to that happening?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary
The final Rasmussen poll on the Republican side in NH has McCain up by one. McCain 32, Romney 31, Huckabee 10, Guiliani 8, Paul 8, Thompson 3.
140 I believe the Iowa result is an outlier, an emotional reaction to his huge win there just the other day. Ohio is much more important. That said, it is true that these Survey USA polls are rather erratic, and should be treated with caution.
137 The behavior of Independents makes it chancy, Gabriel.
139 My guess is that now Obama is in the comfort zone, his support will level out. In NH, Independents may now be more likely to back McCain. Not that Obama will terribly dissatisfied with a 7 point win. He gets the big prize, but keeps his supporters lean and keen.
Best of all worlds?
142: yes Fox pushing this Romney come back line too.
141 - That is very much what will decide it I think. It looks like Obama will win whatever, but McCain is vulnerable if Independents flock to Obama. If Romney wins NH he will have a lot of momentum going forward after the attacks he has withstood. McCain won the NH primary in 2000, and Bradley lost to Gore because independents went to McCain. He could be on the other end of it tonight.
An excellent example of doom-mongering on the BBC site:
House price inflation falls again
Prices rose at their slowest rate for 11 years in 2007, the Halifax said
House price inflation fell sharply at the end of last year, according to the Halifax bank.
The country’s biggest mortgage lender said prices were rising at an annual rate of just 5.2% in December, half the rate seen just three months earlier.
Although prices went up by 1.3% during December…….
140 - You may be right, but what an outlier! And in a state that Bush won in 2004. Although Obama has clear weaknesses Republicans must be worried at the enthusiasm he is generating.
146 - the impression from reading the Boston papers is that McCain is getting the people turning out to listen to him and Romney isn’t so much.
Whether that translates into actual votes remains to be seen of course
145 Hmm..well the Intraders aren’t buying it. McCain now touching 90.
Can’t say as I’ve seen too many 1/9 shots get beat.
BBC doom-mongering model II:
Festive sales ‘at three-year low’
Retailers did increase sales over Christmas - but only just -
UK retailers had their worst Christmas in three years, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has said.
Like-for-like sales across the sector - which exclude new store openings - increased by just 0.3% last month from a year earlier, the trade body said.
While overall sales advanced 2.5%, the BRC said it remained the worst December on the High Street since 2004.
And, lo, this piece of special pleading spin is followed by a demand for lower interest rates from the overprices retailers. Well, who would have thunk it?
150 I still think it’ll be closer than most people expect
150: Probably more reliable than Fox!
Apologies if this link has been posted before but it is well worth reading for anyone who is considering putting money on the winner of the Democratic nomination.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/clintons_plan_b.html
Much like the labour deputy leadership there are a number of nuances and procedural issues which could have a big effect on the eventual outcome. As the article points out Obama could “win” tonight but that does not put HC out, she would probably still be in the lead as far as delegates to the convention is concerned and might well remain so even if Obama “wins” South Carolina and Nevada. HC is almost certain to “win” New York, New Jersey and Arkansas and quite possibly California which combined with the super delegates gives her a formidable block of votes.
A fact I was not aware of is that the delegates are appointed pro rata so if the polls in New Hampshire are about right Obama would get say 10 out of 22 and Clinton 7 delegates (a candidate needs just over 2000 delegates to win) which puts things in a rather different perspective. This is clearly the sort of strategy Guillani is pursuing. Clearly the media likes to portray winners and losers and Obama might become to be seen as the winner despite the electoral facts on the ground but it does seem that this contest could run for some time maybe even to the convention (possibly a more likely scenario for the Republicans)
151. every store in my city had a huge sale well before christmas this year, and even then they weren’t that busy.
154 - Indeed jgc and Clinton is still ahead in the national polls. Magic though Obama is, where is the beef? George Bush was the most likeable candidate in 2000 - have the Americans not learned their lesson? Surely 1.4 on Betfair is too tight at this stage?
145 - Does anyone trust Fox News to not push their own agenda?
That said, I watched Iowa on Fox last week and it wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. I have Sky - is Fox the best place for coverage tonight?
154 - The problem with the view is that momentum really changes things. Before the Obama win in Iowa Clinton was ahead by single digits in NH and about 20% nationally. She is now behind in NH and at best ahead by single digits nationally. Reports are already emerging that she is struggling for cash. If she doesn’t win any of the pre-feb 5 states its hard to see how she would still be ahead nationally and win anywhere but NY and Arkansas.
This is also why I’m skeptical about Guiliani. The only thing he has going for him is a split field meaning no one candidate can build momentum. But he is already falling behind in national polls after just one caucus, and he could conceivably finish 5th in NH.
History is not on Clinton’s side. Since 76 candidates that have won both Iowa and NH have always won the nomination. I wouldn’t count her out just yet - especially given how close Iowa and NH are and her institutional strengths but Obama is now the clear favorite.
154 your own argumetn works against you too though. As the delegates are pro rata (note that Clinton only got one less than Obama in Iowa and actually got one more than Edwards), Clinton victories in California and possibly even Arkansas won’t be as crippling to Obama’s campaign as a winner-takes-all system would be. And that’s even if he loses CA, which I don’t think is by any means a safe assumption
156 - Clinton’s lead is well down in post-Iowa national polls (although there have been only 2 that I’m aware of). Gallup has it 33-33-20, Rasmussen has it 33-29-20. (Clinton-Obama-Edwards)
And the most likeable Presidential candidate nearly always wins the General, which is why Democrats shouldn’t underestimate Huckabee.
Rasmussen now has McCain leading Clinton by 11 in Virginia, a swing state that republicans must hold, but Obama by only 2.
McCain has shortened considerably at Intrade in the last hour, trading at 38. BF is slowly following. For the fainthearted,