New Hampshire election night special… continued
January 9th, 2008Continue the discussions here as the New Hampshire results are digested
This article is a “slimmed-down” one to help ease server pressure.
PBC - the best place to be on Election Night
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
Guest Editor
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http://www.politico.com/nhprimaries/nhmap-popup.html updates automatically; http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/state?state=NH doesn’t. At this instant, they agree.
Hillary closing fast on the ‘Democratic candidate’ market on Betfair - makes sense, since even if Obama pips her at the post in NH she’s clearly had a massive fightback.
Clinton’s the bloody favourite for the nomination on BF!
Clinton again favourite for the democratic race !
PBC website now very slow!
Hillary still leading by 4%.
50,000 votes now counted.
Latest Betfair prices:
Obama 1.68
Clinton 2.24
Hillary now FAVOURITE for nomination - extraordinary.
This looks to me like a pretty solid 4% lead for Clinton. It’s been that way for half an hour.
She’s won, I reckon.
Irritating as this is, I must say it is outweighed by the exhilaration of watching a campaign where the pollsters are completely wrong all the time. Wow.
And soon I must to bed. I have to actually go back to work tomorrow. Niteynite. It’s been emotional.
Interesting to see that the party supporters are going for Romney and Clinton, the least electable of the main candidates (and, to my mind, the nightmare scenario, just as Bush vs Kerry was four years ago).
Another reason for me to dislike party organisations and fixed allegiances!
2 Certainly agree.
Votes coming in fast.
55,000 now counted.
Hillary lead still 4%.
Sea Shanty - 8-9% of the pop of NH is in Manchester and the Hilary gap is huge there - important?
8 Yes, it would be a Nightmare worse than Elm Street, ukpaul.
SeanT, how can you leave now?! I bet you find it EXTREMELY hard to sleep with live results coming in…
Fox News has called it for Obama, despite the current polling gap.
Intrade has Obama at 58, Clinton at 47.4 for the NH Win
7 - You are wrong, methinks - Hilary has done VERY well exceeding low expectations (overhyped by the likes of overexitable types like myself?).
BUT she is going to come in 2nd tonight.
10. Tightening slightly - about 3.6%
Clinton is STILL 9/4 against for the Nomination on Ladbrokes. Easy money?
11. Of course. Explains why she’s going to loose state by 5% or less INSTEAD of 10% or more.
Amazing. I got to say what a fightback.
Secondly, it shows she has “solid” support in places. She won’t roll over now. And this will run for a while…
Obama is winning ALOT of support in Western NH. But Hillary in the population areas, mostly.
14 - Fox hasn’t called it for Obama yet.
The state is currently dividing on an east-west basis. Anyone know why?
11. Also helps explain why, as does exit polling crosstabs.
I’m getting a bit annoyed with these sneaky Americans.
(d) I thought that Hilllllary’s tearful moment a couple of days ago was going to be hyped up as an enormously significant “She’s just blown it big time” moment, but it seems to be hardly being talked about.
(r) A few days ago I thought the 2 front-runners were Giuliani and Huchabee; then yesterday it was Giuliani and McCain; now all of a suden it’s McCain and Romney. What is going on?!? Can’t they make their minds up? Why don’t they have an election or something to settle the issue?
Concord (c 10k voters) has Obama leading by 44 votes (out of 5,000 - 50% reported).
This is going to be quite close.
Only really worth watching Nashua and Manchester, and maybe Concord now.
14 - Have they? I’m watching Fox now, and they haven’t got the ‘tick’ next to Obama’s name (yet). Romney is conceding New Hampshire.
17. Sorry SeanT, we are suspended. That was our last price.
Romney is now trying to become the change candidate, unbelievable this guy changes his act every day.
Sea Shanty - What % of precincts will have reported when they are neck and neck do you think?
26. Ah. Good job I don’t bet.
One of the last bets we took on this was £1600 Obama at 1/33.
20, 25
Apologies, Sky News has it as a projection at the bottom of screen…Getting ahead of myself!
ABC: Precincts Reporting 23%
Candidate Votes Vote %
Clinton 24,762 40%
Obama 21,089 34%
hillary now 45.3 - 31 in Manchester (66% reported)#
Obama extends to 2% lead in Concord (60% reported)
21 - East (really SE) is your Peyton Place NH; dominated by old mill towns and post-industrial cities, intersperced with more upscale suburbs and downscale hamlets.
West (SW and North Country) is more oriented to Connecticut River & Vermont; was tradional GOP heartland in NH, but has trended Democratic strongly as Party of Lincoln shifted right. Dems here are more upscale.
Clinton lead now 6%. Incroyable.
McCain versus Clinton? That could be very close.
C-Span, 21% of Precincts in:
Hillary - 39.67%
Obama - 35.69
Worried you Obama landsliders are ya, eh eh!
He should win but its close and neither him or Clinton getting across the line shoudl surprise.
In addition we need to look at the deleaget numbers merging after the vote.
Hillary odds on for NH at BF
24% done and the gap is widening, it’s now Clinton 40% - Obama 34%
clinton lead to 6% now. 24% of precincts reported
On that CNN link (
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=NH
), how do I get the results by precinct/ district/ whatever? In other words, What sort of variation is there geographically?
30. Now THAT is a stupid punter. lol.
35 - McCain is likely to beat Clinton, especially as he may be a one term shot to help clean up the mess from the last guy!
21 - You should get ahold of a copy of ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS 2008 covers US state-by-state and congressional district by district.
Increasingly rightwing GOP orientation is a pain in the buttt but still the best single source for local politial landscape.
Obama still need to be 1% ahead in the remaining tallies to pull ahead. Shows no sign at the moment of moving his way….
I do believe Hillary might do it. If she loses, it’s gonna be by a whisker by the looks of things.
Amazing. Totally amazing. Just goes to show - never, ever write off the best election machine in the world.
Obama is slipping. Clinton is winning Manchester by a massive amount.
40% clinton, 34% obama.
23% Reported
37 Right on, Yokel except cannot understand final sentence.
Manchester 75% reported (HC 45.32 v BO 30.90%)
Fox: “real possibility Hillary could win NH”
CLinton +3500 now. CNN pundits saying Clinton supporting areas are counting faster.
re 35, SeanT, “McCain versus Clinton? That could be very close.”
No, McCain would walk it.
McCain V Obama would be a nail biter.
intrade position now 75% HC 25% BO quite incredible seeing as BO was trading at around 95% a few hours ago
CNN trying to explain that Obama places are not in yet - he said think of an horseshoe coast to coast from concord to the sea and that is where Obama should win and they have not counted !!!! - seems to contradict himself as he said concord was Obama land
Hukaboom about to concede…
34 East (really SE) is your Peyton Place NH; dominated by old mill towns and post-industrial cities, intersperced with more upscale suburbs and downscale hamlets.
West (SW and North Country) is more oriented to Connecticut River & Vermont; was tradional GOP heartland in NH, but has trended Democratic strongly as Party of Lincoln shifted right. Dems here are more upscale.
“your Peyton Place”? “upscale”? “downscale”? “Lincoln shifted right”? Pardon me for being ig-informed, but can someone explain this explanation?
44 - That book is a must for anyone punting on US politics, particularly House, Senate and Gubernatorial Races
I need to be up in three hours - I need to sleep - what the £$%^ are they doing in NASHUA!!!!
Hillary clear favourite on Intrade for NH:
Clinton 60
Obama 31
48. I can spell, a good Belfast education me. I just dont check before hitting the submit.
What we need to do is see how the delegate numbers split after this because looked at that way Hilary wont be a kick in the arse off Obama.
Dead heat on Betafir 1.8 apiece!
BO needs a 1.5% lead in remaining precincts. slipping away unless you believe 54….
Concord is essentiall even-steven. So is North Country by look of latest towns to report. Big news up there will be Berlin (pronoucned “BERH-ln”) the largest population center up there.
Clinton +2700 (aka 4%).
Fox news are projecting an Obama win on, I’ve seen it on Sky News. What the difference between a projection and a call is I don’t know 95% probability vs a 99% probability?
13. I am indeed finding it very hard to retire. But I have a vital meeting with my agent at 9am tomorrow. So I have taken a V1codine. Should kick in by about 2.15am.
I’m hoping the trend will be clear by then.
If Obama loses NH, as I now think he will, it will be a real test for him. A good thing, perhaps.
If you got big odds on Hilary earlier, time to lay off now perhaps lads.
Nashua could be the decider.
Hooksett (immediately north of Manchester has HC (43.79%), Kucinich (32.32%) and Obama (0.00%) - no votes for Obama out of 5512 in the county!!! (100% reported)
How weird is that!
Obama again favourite on Betfair to win NH. However, it’s still very close.
is there a more up to date site than http://www.politico.com/nhprimaries/nhmap-popup.html
?
The Spectator Coffee House claimed about 30 minutes ago that ABC has called for Obama. Can anyone source this? (It doesn’t seem to be on the ABC website.)
Peter the Punter stands to lose £000s if Obama don’t win. I think you guys might have to stand him a consolational Stella at the party.
He’ll need it.
68. Hooksett now amended - looks OK now.
56
Peyton Place = old bestselling novel/TV show about seething underbelly of apparently staid New England mill town.
Party of Lincoln = Republican Party
upscale = higher education, income
downscale = reverse
70 - don’t think so - it’s faster than ABC/WMUR or Fox as far s I can tell (actual results, rather than ‘calling’ precincts).
Everything is on Nashua - what on earth are they doing?
Clinton 51% Obama 31% in NASHUA
72. Hes ok at the moment….should come home.
I think on a wider note the mass Obama love in on pb.com should perhaps get itself sober for the moment though.
McCain lead now 10% in NH.
Only 11% reported - sorry … but still!
BO needs 1.6%…
Virtually all of the Clinton lead in the vote total comes from the Manchester result. If her best areas are declaring first, then Obama can still win….
STILL a 4% lead. The votes don’t lie.
This is surprisingly addictive. Like watching football scores on ceefax.
78. In the midst of this deathmatch..well done John McCain the old goat.
81 - But Clinton is winning the most populous areas. If the rest of Nashua goes like that HRC will be the comeback gal.
politicos reports 812 votes and 32% for Obama in Hooksett, Morus
70. CNN seems faster.
If Hillary wins Nashua, I dont see Obama coming back…
If Clinton wins this, will it be the biggest upset in political betting history? We were 1/33 Obama and laying it, including one bet of £1600. That particular punter must be sweating.
Narrowing slightly, but still needs 1.6%
67 Nashua will be important but not big enough to decied BY ITSELF unless margin is pretty small.
Real decider will be aggregate of the areas that are NOT the best towns for either Obama or Clinton; will depend on how that see-saw balances.
75. No the ABC site has more votes counted.
Nashua now at 22% (HC 47.38% Obama 31.5%)
Nashua 33% done
Clinton 2605 49%
Obama 1609 30%
Barack breaks through 36% barrier for first time, I think. This is nailbiting.
ABC news’ Match-o-matic says of all the candidates I’m most like Dennis Kucinich. Who is currently on 1% in New Hampshire…
Fleetwood Mac’s “Go your own way”
then Rocky theme plays for McCain…
McCain’s lead down to 8.7%
83 We just need the music from ‘Countdown’,and Carol Vorderman to complete the scene:lol:
89. Having fun there?
Claim on the National review website that they have “reweighted” the exit polls and now have Hillary ahead
McCain’s victory rally is worryingly reminding me of Kinnock in Sheffield.
Claim on the National review website that media have “reweighted” the exit polls and now have Hillary ahead
91 - True but if the other SE results reflect Manchester and Nashua HRC wins, because they are the most populous areas.
Nashua now at 22% (HC 48.87% Obama 29.47%)
99 Touche, if only tonight was as short as a round of Countdown
105 - typo - 44%
John McCain’s wife…… :O
77. Are you accusing me of being over-the-top about Barack Obama? I merely said he was a hybrid of Buddha, Abe Lincoln, and the starchild from 2001, and that his election might stop global warming overnight.
“When all about you are losing their heads…”
Puh-leeze.
BO slipping, needs 2.1% lead in remaining…
83 HenryG
Hillary now miles ahead for NH on Betfair, and widening her margin for the nomination too (1.8:2.14). I think she may well go to 1.6 if she actually wins NH.
Clinton +3200
Looking like a Hillary win. Nashua 44% reported showing a landslide for her..
Looks like Edwards in coming third in the Dems race could poll more votes than Romney runner up in the GOP race.
Best speech of the night so far from Huckerbee - he’s surely by far and away the best GOP candidate? (Apart from his views obviously…)
Damn. I go to bed planning to back Clinton in the morning after the market has overreacted to her NH defeat and wake up to find this!
Hilary is indeed winning big in Nashua, consistent with Manchester & Merrimack Valley centers, though Obama looks to be doing better in neighboring burbs.
114. how is Edwards doing by the way?
103: good trick, that, “reweighting” a duff poll so it becomes a correct poll.
It is nice to see the polls come a cropper as they often do in the US.
There’s the case of Truman in 1948 of course but the one I like best is Estes Kefauver who Sea shanty was talking about the other night.
The pollsters could find literally no one who said they were going to vote for him in the 1960 Senate race yet he actually received 2/3 of all votes cast….
Slightly poor speech from McCain.
I do not believe it. Hillary… win? Oh there’s gonna be eggs on the faces of the Newspaper Editors in the morning if that’s the case. Think how much they’ve been hyping Obama these past few days…
Now 39-36 Clinton after 36% of precincts reported
120 - Not like you to understate things
121 - The guardian is going to have to do a huge volte face.
Ladbrokes Dem Nominee
Obama 8/11
Clinton Evs
121. nothing compared to the Obama hype on here…….
Clinton +2800
The fat lady is clearing her throat. Must make note never ever again to criticize British pollsters after watching tonight’s debacle by their American counterparts
124. It was they I initially had in mind!
Ah it’s been a while since a good old electoral upset.
122. If true, he needs 1.7%
Useful arb on Hilary for Dem candidate. She’s 6/5 on Paddy Power and can be laid at 1.86 on Betfair currently.
It seems to be getting a bit closer all of a sudden…
I hope Hillary wins - but I am still on pins - as it is too close - I backed her on the pb competition to win the election so come on Hillary … Hillary, Hillary
ABC has Clinton on 39% instead of 40% for first time in quite a while tonight.
As I posted earlier there are lots of reasons to distrust US polls (small sample sizes, lack of transparency) but I think there must have been movement among those deciding late towards HRC.
My wallet prefers Obama, but the pick I (casually admittedly!) posted was a Clinton/McCain comeback here. Having said that, Romney was my pick to win in Iowa…..
John McCain has a very odd voice… I can’t decide whether it’s comforting or incredibly boring…
I think obama will still win
but this serves as a warning for me never to engage in political betting based on any polling information
Clinton +2600
130. Not true, he still needs 2.0%…
McCain supporters chanting USA! USA!
McCain: ‘We will never surrender’.
Oh well, more of the same if he makes it to the White House.
What and where was Barack Obama? Was it all a dream? A zephyr in the night? An illusory pool in the desert? A trail of scent from the silken scarf of a now forsaken future?
I think my V1codine just kicked in.
Hillary lead now 2,600. Getting a bit closer.
Obama seems to be slightly making a comeback and i reckon he’ll pip her at the post..just..
Tonights failings of the post Iowa polls, for both parties, demonstrates how easy it is to get carried away with polls with small (500) samples taken in haste.
137 - It is odd isn’t it. He voice drops slightly strangely at the end of his sentences.
I cant think of a more electric night on here since, well, the Italian election of 2006….
the figures have definately closed up in the last few mins… HC up by 2600 now from 3,500 10mins ago
McCain is an idiot.
39-37. It’s narrowing
I thought Mcains speech to the Tory Party conference was as bad as it was possible to make. He’s just beaten it!
Clinton +2200
Romney’s odds disappearing over the horizon, along with his chances.
Does anyone else think it slightly odd that Paddy Power have paid out on Obama for Dem nominee but are still taking bets on the contest? In theory you can now invest your PP Obama nominee winnings in a bet on Hilary for the same contest - or bet them on Obama again and win twice with the same money.
148 - Why Sean?
137 McCain’s speeches sound like he is recording a very dull audiobook, perhaps a book about accountancy
Does anyone else think that McCain sounds just like Baz Luhrmann?
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=xavFb4WH7o0
Now 1.9%. He needs to get it below 1% before 50% declare…
141,Anyone voting for that needs a complusory frontal lobotomy,in my humble opinion
I can’t see McCain winning a general election on that performance, it wasn’t a very good delivery at all.
Obama coming back! 2% in it!
My skills as prognostecator clearly are suspect, but here goes:
Expect Obama to fight back in the suburban areas near Nashua and Manchester, part of the Boston highh-tech belt. M & N and places like it (like Berlin up north) are Hilary’s kind of demographic, whereas the burbs are Obama’s type.
NOTE: currently Rudy G is about 1% ahead of Ron Paul. Giuliani may NOT get kicked down the basement stairs like I was hoping.
BUT will be fun to figure out how much $2.4 million he spent in NH will come out on per-vote basis.
Clinton slipping….+2000
44% reported of Nasua gives hillary a +1000 vote lead. I’m guessing with that trend she will get another 1000…
153. Just… so boring. “God bless you my friends, as you blessed me” - you can say that once, but…SEVEN times?
155 - very amusing
Johnny B Good as he was leaving the stage…best soundtrack so far?
I admire McCain greatly, but I’ve long suspected he can’t win with all the negatives he has with the base. Some of them speak about him with venom usually only reserved for Clinton. Just a case of when I layoff - maybe tomorrow when his price settles to 2.5 or so.
Fox News has taken back its projection…now too close to call
NYT says:
“9:19 p.m. Here’s the deal with the close Clinton/Obama numbers: The college towns haven’t reported yet. But the good news for Mrs. Clinton is that most precincts in Manchester have reported and she has a pretty substantial lead there. Manchester is the kind of blue-collar, establishment Democratic town that she should win; if Manchester was going the other way, that would signal a pretty big Obama win.”
Still needs 1.9% with 41% counted…
Obama now favourite again on Betfair and Intrade for NH.
CNN saying college towns yet to report - and - they think - heavily favouring Obama.
Could still be tight. Ohbloomingheck. I want to go to sleep!
I think if Obama pulls it off now, after looking like he was losing it, he will suddenly look like a comeback-comeback kid, against the comeback kid.
>141,Anyone voting for that needs a complusory frontal lobotomy,in my humble opinion
You should have heard the Iowa Republican caucus that was shown live on C-Span! God and patriotism tastic!
Hillary now drifting on Intrade, Obama firming very quickly
155. Couldn’t see that but Mitt Romney kept reminding me of Bob Monkhouse during his speech.
+2900 clinton though
Fox now on their second exit poll of the night, has Clinton at 39%-37%
154. He’s dull, but authentic and warming. He has a soft-spoken warmth that most Brits wouldn’t pick up on. He reminds Americans of their much-loved grandfather with a little mischievious side.
Sea-Shanty Irish, I hope you don’t think my predictions regarding Giuliani are any sign of like for the man. I personally think he would be the worst President of all the major candidates. If you ignore the religious stuff, he’d be George Bush on steroids. He has as much belief in the rechstaat as Louis XIV.
174: LOL
Clinton lead just jumped 800. Now back to 2,800.
McCain lead down to 7.8%, so things can change
168, Thanks.
The undergraduates may yet get the big O over the line…
168: Hmm, that sounds like the bad news, not the good news - if her strongest area has reported and the college towns haven’t…
SeanT no.
There’s no comeback when all the votes have already been cast. More like… Only some places are counting slower than others. And in Iowa…Obama did come back hard.
Hillary back to +3000 though..
BO needs 1.6% with 43% counted. It’s finally shifting his way, but still too close…
135 You’ve hit the nail smack on the head. Very clerly late deciders (1 of 7 voters or suchlike) broke Hilary’s way. Question now is, why?
Couple partial answers?
1. All the excitement, etc of the Obama Wave was just a bit much for unexciteable Yankess who at heart deplore that kind of excesss.
2. On other hand, whereas the bitter tears of Ed Muskey destroyed his presidential hopes, perhaps Hilary’s wee cry HELPED her, if that’s so perhaps with older women. After all, everyone knows that Hilary isn’t what you’d call weepy by nature. Must say that while I’ve questioned her strategy and message (and still do) I FIERCLY admire her toughness and fightback. Not bad qualities for a President, that’s for sure.
…but Clinton now back ahead on Betfair…
141. That is unfair. McCain has been extremely outspoken about torture and breaking of the Geneva convention. Just because he is pro-war doesn’t make him a no holds barred warmonger.
Looks like the Indies have swung behind McCain rather than Obama in large numbers.
185: Bill Clinton? He was much more public the last few days.
172,Mind you,at rallies as defending president in 2004,George W looked like he’d walked straight out of the cowboy soap ‘Bonanza’:wink:
i understand the exit pollsters don’t want to ‘call’ the result, but why don’t they publishn thier numbers and just say its within the margin of error? even if thier stats said 39.71% v 39.69% that would be interesting to see no?
Disagree with majority of comments about McCain. Reputation, authority etc can trump everything.
He can win (and I went for him to be President in the PBC competition!)
Side not- is there still a chance that Rdy G could slip behind Ron Paul? He’s 600 votes ahead of him, but isn’t Paul supposed to have a college following?
182 -agreed, not 50% in yet and college towns to come. Obama will come back heavily
185. It’s also possible that the wave of media coverage convinced Independents Obama would easily win, so they decided to vote in the Republican primary instead.
Ag. OB needs 2.1% with 45% counted. Don’t think he’s going to do it….
C’mon Obama!!! 2% and closing.
But how wrong were those polls?! Duh??? WTF?? ROFLMAO
etc etc…
MSNBC are saying that Hillary has a big lead amongst women - that’s the real difference compared to Iowa. Over 10%
New thread now open before this one gets too slow.
Thanks
Double Carpet
Hillary has won this.
Hudson next to Nashua has gone to Hillary. Manchester still at 75% and see has a huge lead there. Nashua also at 44% and a big lead.
Hillary wins Hudson, Londonderry, Auburn, and Hampstead. If Obama needed the suburbs on the Nashua-Manchester stretch, he’s in trouble now.
Hillary lead now 4,400!
Crying can only help once though.
Kucinich’s rally looks bizarre.
She’s back on 40% 4000 lead.
Lead back to 4%. Grrr. OK now I am going to sleep.
C’mon…er…. Ron Paul!!
N’nite.
Clinton back to 40% on ABC:
Precincts Reporting 46%
Candidate Votes Vote %
Clinton 49,719 40%
Obama 45,383 36%
sead, all the cool kids are saying ldo now. do keep up, oldster!
New Hampshire democrats knew that if they voted Obama big time then it would totally kill Clinton’s chances. Ultimately there was too much affection for Hillary (and Bill) amongst the democrats to finish her off so early in the process.
I think this affection is misplaced. Although I think Clinton would make a good president, she has little or no chance of beating a half decent republican candidate.
185: SSI, maybe there’s quite a few roundhead (serious/issue-oriented) Democrats who reacted like me to all the open gloating about Hillary? My few American contacts are with one (right-wing) exception mainstream liberals from way back, and all of them are fiercely pro-Hillary. Not anti-Obama, but not happy with the way she was being portrayed as a wicked establishment witch.
So much for Luntz’s focus group. If Hillary wins I wonder whether Newsnight will finally see him for the charlatan most on here know him to be? As for Hillary’s possible victory….. Isn’t it likely to have a lot to do with the different demographic in NH? As I said the other day the more sophisticated voters of NH are less likely to be impressed with the rather preachery style of Obama than those in Iowa
2% between Clinton and Obama again. At this point whats the most he can win by 2%-3%.
187. I don’t doubt his honesty on issues like torture, but having lived in Lebanon for the last two years I recognise the same disasterous policies will, no doubt, be visited on the Middle East again under a Mccain presidency.
Just awful.
Simply awful. I assume the Democrats actually want to lose.