How will Clegg do first time out?
January 9th, 2008
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Will he be able to cope with the Vince Cable comparisons?
The first PMQs after the Christmas recess is at noon and will be the first occasion when the young new Lib Dem leader gets his chance to put two questions to the Prime Minister.
After yesterday’s 3% boost in the Lib Dem share with Populus Clegg must be feeling that bit more confident.
No one will be aware more than him what happened exactly two years ago when his predecessor, Ming Campbell, did his first PMQs in the first session of 2006. A wounding heckle about Ming needing to “declare an interest” over his age by the late Eric Forth brought laughter from all sides and left the acting leader floundering.
Clegg’s task today has not been made any easier by the way that the stand-in leader, Vince Cable has emerged as such a dominant commons figure particularly in the way he has been able to poke fun at Gordon. But without in anyway undermining Vince’s performance’s he has had an easier ride. There’s been no need for the other parties to knock him down because he was only temporary.
That won’t be the same with Nick Clegg for both the Tory and Labour thug elements having a real interest in inflicting early damage. Whatever they say the success or failure of Clegg’s party will have a big impact on the next election.
The voters that all three main parties are scrapping over occupy the part of the political spectrum where the Lib Dems have most appeal. Labour wants back the supporters who switched in 2005 and the Tories want to hold onto to those Lib Dems who have been attracted by Cameron.
Make no mistake PMQs are important for all the party leaders. In normal times the government has such a control of the news agenda that this weekly ritual can often be the only occasion that the opposition parties can get heard.
My guess is that Clegg will survive OK this lunch-time. He’s not one to leave things to chance and will have been working hard at game-playing and preparing some aces for Gordon.
Live streaming should be available here on the BBC Parliament homepage.
Mike Smithson
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Ming was utterly surprised by the pertinence of Forth’s intervention. Did nobody in his team see this coming? Did whoever concocted the questions not see the irony?
Ming also falsely accused the prison service of releasing a certain foreign prisoner without deporting in one PMQ, and had to retract as his facts were wrong. It was embarrassing!
Clegg may struggle at PMQs for a while, but I hope he is better advised and not likely to fall into any traps like Ming used to.
Dear Mr Clegg, if you hold your order paper, it will show and exaggerate any hand tremors; if you write your question down, the Tories behind will read it first; if you read it out, you will sound dull. Love and kisses, wannabe PR guru.
Repeated on previous thread:
I understand not all of the states allow Independents to vote in the Democratic Paarty primaries. Can anyone clarify this for me and is there a list somewhere giving a complete delegate breakdown of the numbers of delegates representing each state and any other voting group? Then perhaps a better informed assessment of the Hillary/Obama contest can be made.
My guess is that he’s in for a very tough time - but will come through it OK.
Doesn’t matter really, does it??
Even if he has a great performance it will be drowned out by the news on the US elections on the 6 o’clock/10 o’clock TV bulletins tonight.
Clegg won’t even be heard.
Wait till Cameron gets back on the airwaves seriously in March/April. His poll rating will climb again. Then Clegg will be a busted flush.
From previous thread in reply to Marcus and several others of a like mind……
Certain Tories on here dislike Hillary for the same reason they dislike Cherie and read the Daily Mail. They think a woman’s place is in the home where they can hold coffee mornings to keep themselves occupied. Hillary like Cherie are real professionals who have put in the miles…….
….. In contrast to Cameron of course who after Eton Oxford and a stint as Carlton’s PR announces to Daddy over a port at Whites that he rather fancies being Prime Minister……..
From anyone looking at the Democratic race again and now that its not a procession. If your position allows, start totally afresh.
I did it with the GOP race and just considered any bets I was having from then on in as new and it gave me some interesting ways of looking at it.
6 - but to be fair, have any of the three party leaders ever had a proper job? (Ming did. Nuff said!)
6. May be they just feel that just because Dennis was married to Mrs T didn’t make him prime ministerial material. It is amusing the degree to which the US presidentcy is becoming a dynastic trophy.
Just looked at how the NH result has affected the GOP candidates’ odds to win their nomination:
Giuliani - weaker
Romney - slightly stronger
McCain - weaker
Huckabee - somewhat stronger
Paul - completely out of it
Thompson - completely out of it
So the only real winner has been Huck, yet his odds for winning the Presidency have actually weakened and are back at around 25-1 with Betfair. All rather curious.
Roger at 6. A pathetic post, even for you.
From previous thread in reply to Roger (only Roger mind……)
6. I’m not even going to comment on the total stupidity of that predjuiced load of rubbish Roger.
You really are an idiot.
And, may I add, you are even more of an idiot for thinking you were rather clever in posting it. Twice.
6. Roger, you really can’t hide your own prejudices when criticising the prejudices of others, can you?
Ever heard of Margaret Thatcher?
6. When recent threads have been happily focused on betting, why you insist in posting such imbecilic comments - let alone reposting them - is a mystery. Once again you simply show yourself up as a mindless loudmouth.
6 - Clinton is the candidate to lose the election for the dems, what’s the point of picking someone you like who isn’t the likeliest to deliver for your party? At least the GOP seem to understand that and are giving Romney, Thompson et al the bum’s rush.
Labour took ages to recover from its Foot problem and the tories likewise with their revolving door of leaders, are the dems going to continue making the same mistake (for the record, last time I thought they should have chosen Edwards over Kerry)?
6. On the other hand Roger as a non Labour voter I would strongly support the idea of Cherie following in Hillary’s footsteps and becoming the next leader of the Labour Party.
16 - Pauline Prescott for deputy when Harman resigns?
10. I am guessing that McCain’s victory was simply not seen as emphatic enough so perhaps that is being reflected in Romney and his position.
To compare McCain’s percentages with 2000 is wrong, its a totally different field but I do have my worries that it wasnt a real set up for him to go on.
The Huckster also has some strong states coming up.
History suggests that you win one of either NH or Iowa you are a potential nominee winner. Win none of those two, forget it. Guiliani is of course disregarding that and going on a different strategy.
I don’t understand why on PB.com we can’t have two threads running at once. Why don’t we leave this thread for the British political discussion and continue the US conversations on the previous one?
Hope all those who keep quoting opinion polls as more important than real votes re LibDem prospects have learned something from New Hampshire but I doubt it . FWIW my sole 2 bets so far on the Dem Presidential Candidate was to lay HC £ 20 to £ 6 at 1.3 and then lay BO £ 30 to £ 15 at 1.5 . So all Green HC + £ 24 BO + £ 3 all others + £ 50 . May lay HC again if price goes very low in reaction to NH .
BO or HC the Dems will win the presidential election easily in Nov IMHO .
15 - Hillary’s political stances are right-wing for Democrats. I can’t see her losing to Republicans.
I can see Obama losing, if he doesn’t think of “something” to say that might be of substance.
I think the democrats will win anyway.
@6 I’m a conservative and rooting for Hillary.
Who is this Clegg chap that you’re talking about? Never heard of him.
17. Tessa Jowell’s very own David Mills must be a shoe in as the next Minister for Health after all his experience in the Italian healthcare.
12 Casino (From previous thread)
“ Not sure I got across how much I HATE Hillary Clinton…..Do Democrat Americans not realise how despised and divisive she is?…….She’s an evil, sinister, artifical, calculating, self-obsessed, disgustingly repellant she-devil…..If she wins the nomination, I’m tempted to cross the pond to campaign for WHOEVER opposes her”.
And you call me a prejudiced idiot!
Goupillon @ 3 — iirc there is a list on wikipedia, and in previous threads. Unfortunately I do not have time to search just now. The trouble is that you really have to look in detail at each state party’s rules.
Looking at the position of Edwards in NH, depending on how you read it he polled a little under expectations or bang on it so its not as if Hilary necessarily got a huge pull there though possibly did get some advantage there, which in a close contest was useful.
I go back to the mundane though, her support base was simply bigger and more robust in NH than in Iowa.
Roger 1 Casino 1
Can we now call it a draw and get on with things. That said Casino should get off the fence, Does he like Hillary or not?
Clegg’s mission today is twofold. One, don’t F-up. Two, win a headline, however small.
His PMQ strategy going forward has to be a bit more subtle and nuanced. He needs to choose his enemies and his friends in the House.
Kennedy stood up for the non-aligned and Blair haters - this worked. Ming tried to cosy up to Blair/Brown while attacking the Tories - this failed miserably. Cable poured pity on Gordon’s head and asked the whole House to join him - this worked big time, but wouldn’t work longterm.
My suggestion for Clegg is to play the libertarian in the house, taking on the Stalinist Brown. This will gain him sympathy on the Tory backbenches, providing cover when the government benches heat up.
PMQs is all about the House and parliamentary morale. Clegg shouldn’t worry about equidistance or policy, he needs to develop a personality, a personality that is taking on the government with style, charm and ‘independent’ support.
24. Casino just doesn’t like Hillary, thats not prejudice that’s his own personal feelings about another individual. whereas your generalisations about large numbers of people and sweeping statements are prejudiced and unfounded. Please do keep posting Roger, always brings a smile to my face. When are you going to have a focus groupesque lunch with a bunch of advertising execs to tell us what the country is thinking?
Happy new year old boy
24. The school bell has rung Roger - time to go back in and do some more fagging for Mr.Bamford.
6 “Cameron …..announces to Daddy over a port at Whites that he rather fancies being Prime Minister”
Roger - after your top Public School education, did you ever sit down with Daddy and announce that you wished to be a £6,000 per day TV Commercial director with four homes?
From previous thread.
lol Dez don’t worry - I never bet on politics (I rarely bet ever -a mug’s game in my opinion), so my Obamania leaves me psychically bruised this morning, but financially untouched. If I did bet I could actually have made some cash last night - I sensed as soon as the first precincts came in that Hillary would do it (check my posts). It just felt that way. Even though the odds were saying she was still gonna lose.
But no harm done. Not to me, anyway. Sympathies to all who did lose.
And Obamania? Some people on here are saying he was over-hyped. well, not by me he wasn’t: I stand by my opinion. That if he were elected president it would be a marvellous thing for America, and the world. As a symbol of change and renewal. That remains the case, in my opinion, even if he doesn’t win another delegate from now on.
Hillary will no doubt be a conscientious and diligent prez. She will be boring. She might do good stuff. But emotionally and spiritually it doesn’t appeal to me - Bill Clinton back in the Oval Office with his cigar cutter. Yuk and Yawn. Same old same old.
I think America does need a change and young people sense it. But others differ. That’s democracy!
Who will win now? I agree with Nick Palmer. I think a lot of what happened last night was women and old-time Democrats not liking the predictions: that Hillary was taking a big delivery of whup-a$$. Her tears helped bring in the sisters. This factor will ebb but crucially she has saved her campaign from meltdown and her machine will now take over.
I think she will probably go on now to the Nomination, and the presidency. I can’t see mumblin’ John McCain beating her in November.
But then again… who knows?! This year-long race has already provided two major upsets. In the first week! Incredible stuff.
And some people want us to talk about… Nick Clegg. Ahem.
27. Fair enough Johnathon! Just one final observation and then I’ll call it quits….
The misogyny reeking out of Casino’s post (quoted by me at 24) will be completely invisible to him who just thinks it’s a witty post! How unreconstructed is it possible to be these days?
32 SeanT, you arfe not blameless. You were one of the original hypees, but yes you did think better of it eventually.
29 Calling someone “evil” and a “she-devil”, is that not a touch sweeping, prejudiced and unfounded too.
BTW On topic, perhaps Clegg should attack Cameron. There is defintely an audince out there for an end to the Tory leader’s smugness. If Clegg can lay a glove on Cameron in the MR Bean stylee, he wil win a headline and people will ask if he can do it why can’t others. Win win. Maybe the you were the future once line to Cameron would do the trick.
24. Yes - and did you see in my (detailed) explaination for why I despised her any mention of me thinking “her real place should be in the home” or “holding a coffee morning” beacause ’she is a woman’ ??
You just can’t get it through your impervious skull that people just dislike *her* and you want to bat it away by trying to claim all her opponents are sexist.
It’s as ridiculous as saying all fervent Obama opponents are racist.
It will not matter how well or badly Clegg does. He is going to get rubbished in the press regardless.
27.
29. Right on.
21 - A Right winger for Clinton.
Enough said, I think.
32 - if Hillary does get the nomination, just watch the sparks fly.
Also, how much longer will we get to hear the “youth/first timers will have a massive impact” spiel for? It was supposed to be significant in 2004 and the first proper primary (in somewhere I would have expected Obama to win anyway) shows it’s the older people who as usual are doing the actual voting.
Long way to go, but last night felt more like politics as normal.
“Long way to go, but last night felt more like politics as normal.”
That’s the most depressing thing, something must change soon and, if it’s not TO HAPPEN in the US, then how much longer do we have to wait?
Whoops, caps lock on at random in my last post.
I thought Roger’s number 6 was quite amusing actually. Surely it was tongue in cheek? No?
As for Clegg, I can hardly contain my excitement. It’ll be like watching a nervous young undergraduate stand up to make his first contribution at a Fresher’s Week debating society event. But rather less stimulating.
36. Augustus. Please see my post at the end of the last thread.
40 - it will happen when the yoof/first timers become the second-time, thirtysomething voters who will be more likely to vote when they have to deal with pesky things like mortgages.
Remember, there is still a huge older persons contingent in the US - the AARP claims over 38 million members - and they can’t be easily discounted.
Some will like the new tone that Obama is currently delivering, but even at this very early stage they’ll side more with the status quo. Obviously, the more who die off the more the voting blocs will be more of the Obama-style candidate. But you’ll have to wait for a while
Also, you can’t rule out McCain for being “too old”, when you’re effectively labelling a sizeable proportion of likely voters in that manner as well.
43 Thanks, stjohn, but you flatter me! It was more luck than judgement on my part, and a general suspicion that the euphoria was getting out of hand.
Roger@33 you just make an utter fool of yourself with statements like that. Why do you do it?
I don’t like Hillary either. Even less her odious husband.
re 19 Eddie, normally I’d reply just to the current thread, but when one has a US theme and one a UK theme like now, I’m with you 100%.
The two issues that interest me about US politics apart from the obvious of not electing another Dr Strangelove is a hope that the winning Democrat candidate will be against the death penalty and will stop supporting Israel. Only when the US stop giving Israel 100% backing will there be a chance of ending the conflict.
Both Democrat candidates are pro the death penalty and both are solidly pro Israel. So if it wasn’t that I believe women are horribly under represented in all politics I would be equally unhappy with both of them.
48. delusional
48. “.. if it wasn’t that I believe women are horribly under represented in all politics I would be equally unhappy with both of them. ”
Ah. Now I see. You support Hillary *because* she is a woman. You assume everyone else thinks the same as you do, so those who strongly oppose Hillary *must* be sexist.
Simple as that.
Osama disapppears and 18 months later this Obama chap pops up… Mmmm.
48. No chance, when the chips are down they’ll back Israel, always.
It does show however how detached we are from the US where our drivers for interest in a candidate are so much different that those in teh country itself.
44. I’m firmly of the belief, posted here that the US is not quote so age led about its politicians. Older people are a growing proportion of most Western populations and they tend to be more reliable voters. The whole swept forward on a tide of younger people is exactly because they are less inclined to vote thus when they do they can help shift things in what appears to be a fairly dramatic way. When it comes to election winning decsiveness, they often only relect a orientation thats also elsewhere in other parts of the populous.
Ignore the fogeys and the middle aged at your peril.
Stewart Jackson MP asking questions about NI now.
The odds on the MPC decision tomorrow are nicely balanced on Betfair I see…
42: you think he’ll be that good?
54 - today’s news on a High St slowdown to balance against inflation concerns from fuel price hike…
Come on Cleggy my boy- the UK’s version of Obama. Well maybe not quite. A bit too white, English, boring to be like Obama.
But heh I wish the guy well and hope that after today we start to see the LD’s pulling into the 20’s where they need to be.
56. Goodness, a candidate to join the MPC amongst us. What a depth of talent there is on this site.
Just seen the Hillary NH victory speech.
She is clearly, utterly formiddable, comitted and on top of the detail, much less puff than the others. Anyone who attacks “predatory student loan companies” is a bit of a leftie and has potential IMO.
Request for Mr Smithson. Assuming we have have no other dramatic impacting events, any chance of ‘where now’ thread on the Democrat & GOP races, perhaps at weekend when everything settles down?
I’m fascinated by this belief that Interest Rates can control price inflation. Yes, when it’s wages driven as in the past, but how will an increase in interest rates drive international Oil prices back down? Or Gas or Wheat? All of which are the main inflation drivers. I hope the Old Lady doesn’t get caught with her pants down!
Cameron starts on ID cards; this may shaft Clegg. Clever move.
62 - I’m sure Clegg and his team realized that Cameron was going to lead on this after the Marr interview.
Cameron on sparkling form.
OMG Brown just scored a point against Cameron.
61. Another economics expert! Fantastic, a whole shadow MPC in the making.
65 - really?
GB is worse than TB for not giving straight answers.
Brown is looking remarkably solid.
Brown reminds me of Karl Marx trying to answer a question on the Monty Python sketch “Communist Party Quiz”.
Presenter: Yes, yes! One final question Karl and the beautiful lounge suite will be yours… Are you going to have a go? (Karl nods) You’re a brave man. Karl Marx, your final question, who won the Cup Final in 1949?
Karl: The workers’ control of the means of production? The struggle of the urban proletariat?
Presenter: No. It was in fact, Wolverhampton Wanderers who beat Leicester 3-1.
Low inflation? RPI 4.3%. Highest in 16 years. Low inflation?
Brown looking poor talking about Cameron on Black Wednesday. It’s never worked before and it’s not going to work now.
Amazing from Brown, he’s even smiling for pete’ sake.
Cameron is all over the shop and boring. Same old record.
Obviously it was no-one’s resolution to stop the Punch and Judy show.
71 - it’s all he’s got. And even that doesn’t amount to much.
To be fair, I think GB is getting more out of PMQs now, a bit more polished. But you can only polish a turd so much can’t you?
Brown has lost it with the silly repetition about biometric Id for visa holders. He is so busy sticking to the script that he is in another world.
Then he tries to make fun of ‘pre-rehearsed lines’.
And in the meantime the pound burns, the debts increase, the ‘hard working’ families Brown like wittering about are looking harder times in the face.
I would give Brown and Cameron a score draw in the end. The line about “pre-rehearsed lines in front of the mirror” was good. Cameron started well but lost his way a bit.
Clegg starts OK…
Clegg was great on Q1!
He didn’t fluff the first question.
Clegg doing ok, I think Cameron won this today. The problem for brown is he is just repeating himself every week, and his attacks on Cameron are not as powerful.
That little exchanged rather illustrated the problems with electing an empty vessel to lead the Tory Party.
Glegg more substantive and less scoolboy than Cameron. Good start.
Bring back Vince Cable!!!
Is this brown trying to “lovebomb” clegg?
Clegg looked comfortable and was OK. That’s enough. Well done, him!
Clegg isn’t on the ball, Vince would have put Broon on the Northern Rocks by now.
Not impressed by Clegg yet. Broon seemed to patronise him.
But banging on about 1992 is pretty pathetic, as is Broon’s touching belief that inflation was only 2%.
Clegg on pre-paid energy meters. The big burning issue of the day. Sure to lead the Ten o’Clock News on that.
Hardly an impressive debut. They should have gone for Vince.
(ps: “burning issue” wasn’t a pun..)
So, we are in agreement then. Nick Clegg is the Barack Obama of British Politics (or at least of Sheffield Politics).
Interesting approach from Clegg. I think he was aiming to distinguish himself from the somewhat abstract arguments about ID cards, civil liberties and so forth which are more normal Lib Dem fare. Following the shouting match between Cameron and Brown, he succeeded in looking calm and collected with a focus on ‘real’ issues, but it wasn’t a spectacular blow either.
If he carries on plugging away on these kinds of issues and, crucially, getting coverage for them, he’ll be ok. It’s unlikely to go down particularly well here because we prefer to see fireworks, but it might resonate rather better with ordinary people.
Clever bread and butter politics from Clegg. Like it. Much more resonant than high political drama. He should get coverage anyway becausee it’s his first time. Will look like the people’s friend.
If anyone repeated themselves it was Cameron, get a new record Dave. So 2007.
It seemed to me that Cameron clearly expressed his view on ID Cards for foreign nationals? Am I missing something?
It’s funny how Brown accuses Cameron of pre-rehearsed lines with a line which was clearly pre-rehearsed!
I thought Clegg’s performence was rather underwhelming. Also I think Brown’s attempts to chum up with the Lib Dems will only end up with him alienating them further.
I really wish Brown would stop referring to events 15 years +, I don’t think they’re particularly relevant and it is beginning to grate.
A Swansea Blog
87 - i think DC scuppered him by raising ID cards first. It left Cleggy Boy with his boring back-up question on energy meters. Yawn…
I always love reading these PMQ threads for the sheer partisan nature of the responses.
Ditto 76 though. A score draw but those “pre-rehearsed lines” jibes from Brown could start to resonate as they tie in with the PR image Cameron must shake.
Looks like the Punch & Judy politics are back.
86. Obama without any of Obama’s positives as far as I can see.
In my opinion (I’m a Tory), Clegg came across as confident and assured. Not sure about the weight of his question though and the ‘open door’ Brown mentioned will probably the focus of any sound bites.
He is certianly going to present his questions confidently, however it remains to be seen what he is like ‘on his toes’.
What may be his biggest negative is that he doesn’t come across as a Lib Dem really, so half of his party may not be totally happy with his ‘Cameron-lite’ style.
76. I agree with SBS, although I think it was more a scoreless draw. Clegg also not particularly exciting but interesting that he seems to have respect from the House - Vince’s legacy?
Has cameron done all his Qs then? Coming to this late..
93 - I do not think that winter fuel and low income fuel poverty is a Cameron-lite style question.
95 Think so, he went on a bit and you didn’t miss much.
91 You’re so right. I was pleased and surprised by Brown so had to write about it. But generally beauty is clearly in the eye of the beholder.
Libdems going on pensions…
Clever idea, could badly backfire since the Tory record on pension is good.
” 93 - I do not think that winter fuel and low income fuel poverty is a Cameron-lite style question. ”
Not the question, the presentation of the man…
Isn’t it kinda pathetic for Brown to keep going on about 1992? It will be 16 years this year, for god’s sake? How many more times is he going to keep droning on about this? Cameron wasn’t even an MP at the time.
The great problem with Brown is that his every waking moment seems to be about attacking the Tories, rather than running the country for the good of the nation. As leader of the opposition, I’m sure he’d be excellent, but as PM, he’s just totally inept!
The most wicked moment was Brown alluding to private discussions with Nick Clegg and his door being open.
I didn’t think any of the three were particularly impressive. I liked Brown’s line about Cameron rehearsing in the mirror, but I also liked Cameron’s line about magnetic strips. Both got their soundbites in, and neither will change minds. Clegg was utterly unmemorable but didn’t crash and burn either. I’m sure he’ll be happy enough to have achieved that on his first outing.
89. “I really wish Brown would stop referring to events 15 years +, I don’t think they’re particularly relevant and it is beginning to grate.”
But a hell of a lot of people still remember what happened back then so the tactic of tying Cameron to a time when the Tories’ reputation for competent handling of the economy was shattered is understandable if said leader is vying to be the seed of change.
Whether it works or not is a different matter though.
98 - so remind me of how many above inflation rises given to state basic pension during the years 1979-1997?
And in how many ways was SERPS reduced?
97 Jonathan “I was pleased and surprised by Brown so had to write about it.”
You men you were not already at the keyboard with the pre-rehearsed Labour Central lines ready to go? You are slipping then.
100 - reminiscent of the Tories’ “New Labour New Danger” campaign really - and we all know how well that worked.
103. Yes but at least we didn’t bankrupt the only part of the pension system that actually represents a sustainable long-term answer to an aging population (i.e. the private sector)!
0-0-0 draw
100/102 - obviously there must be a point at which the electorate “forget” (or die, or are too young to remember). 15-odd years sounds about right to me.
102: I went to London once in 1992 as well - is it also partly my fault?
Really, it is lame. Cameron was a nobody then. Anyway it was the best thing that happened to this country for years, getting out of the ERM. In case you hadn’t noticed, we’ve had uninterrupted economic growth ever since.
106 - I don’t know what you would have done to that after 1997. You may not have done the tax raid, but I am sure greater regulation would have come in.
The Tory record on pensions in the 1980s was pretty dire. The state provision fell far behind average earnings and the mis-selling crisis of pensions was terrible.
Tory record on pensions good? Yeah, right!
91: Trying not to be partisan, Brown did a little better than usual, but asking Cameron to answer a question he already did sounds silly, Cameron needs to link the questions he asks better, and Clegg did reasonably well. A very slight Cameron victory.
And something else that irritates me intensly is the way Brown bellows all the time. It’s really off-putting to see our Prime Minister bellowing like some yob. The guy has absolutely no class or finesse at all.
Cameron wins - just. Brown good, Clegg OK but the choice of questions were bizarre.
108 - if Brown’s trying to bring up 1992, he’s gone into the Tories 1995 era of mentioning 1979
Not good for future success
A good start from Clegg, a pertinent, relevant domestic issue selected “Lib Dems Help The Elderly In Winter”. Confident delivery & no shaking hands as with Vince and Ming… I though Broon looked daft rolling out his “open door” and “The Liberal Party” stuff..
I used to get bored of Tory ministers talking about “the last Labour government” and its problems. I am now bored of Labour doing the same to the Tories.
If Clegg does well in the polls, with Brown go on about the last Liberal government?
What a wash-out. Drama queens sniping at each other for having the gall to rehearse. Why don’t they junk the whole show and just send tapes in to the broadcasters?
When Brown was asked the question at the end about the New Year murder, was anyone else expecting him to find a way to attack the Tories about that? I was just waitng for it….
‘The most wicked moment was Brown alluding to private discussions with Nick Clegg and his door being open’
Yes it seems yet another Lib Dem leader has been drawn into Labour’s web. They just can’t resist tacking towards their ideological soulmates, even when Labour are unpopular and it does the Lib Dems no good at all to be associated with them.
Clegg falls at the first hurdle - ‘vote Lib Dem, get Labour’ will once again be among the most effective Tory slogans on the doorstep.
119 - I can’t see how Brown having a wicked little dig constitutes Clegg falling at a hurdle. I am sure that Brown and Cameron have private discussions too.
Right, if you want partsan, here goes…
Cameron was sh1t apart from the magnetic strip bit. His longwinded welcome to Clegg made him look like the arrogant SOB he really is. Brown was actually smiling by the end.
Labour morale up, Brown wins.
I am sure that Brown and Cameron have private discussions too.
I wouldn’t be so sure. As far as I can tell, they genuinely seem to loath each other.
120. Doubtful that they cover the same subjects, though!
Clegg has been very foolish to repeat Campbell’s mistake. The Lib Dems cannot afford to be associated with Labour.
121. Not so much partsan (sic) as merely pathetic.
Off topic, and my last comment for a while as I actually have to begin the year’s work…
A nice point in Gideon Rachman’s FT column. He cites a rich woman saying she didn’t like “all that civil rights stuff” Obama trots out. But Obama doesn’t bang on about civil rights. Was this, therefore, polite middle-class code for “I’m not voting for him coz he’s black?” i.e. Did race come into the Obama defeat?
Iowa - all white - voted for him. But that was in public caucuses. In the private polling booths of a primary, who knows.
There are just as many racists on the left as there are on the right, only the leftwing racists tend to be guilty and the rightwing ones shameless.
So: did lefty racists ditch Obama? I think this was probably a factor. How depressing.
Daily Politics scored it a win for Clegg. Good start.
Neither Brown nor Cameron landed killer blows today. Cameron was good, I liked the ‘magnetic strip’ line. Brown’s quip about ‘rehearsing lines in the mirror’ surely backfired, as I can just imagine him pacing the room before PMQs shouting “Dammit I’m never going to be able to remember all these tractor production figures from 1945-51″ He rehearses endless lines of statistics and meaningless waffle which he then pours out at every PMQs, regardless of the question being asked.
Clogg didn’t stumble, but no kiler “Mr Bean” line, in fact, if he hadn’t turned up, would anyone have noticed? Also, this business of sitting in the middle of the bench makes him look like a nonentity and slightly scared of the opposition.
Also, why did the Speaker (who is regularly the worst performer at PMQs) allow “Questions to the Leader of the Opposition” from Brown?
Interesting on BBC that they picked up on Brown ratcheting up Cameron’s job in the Treasury every weak. Chief adviser this week it would seem. By April he’ll be the former chancellor no doubt. Hague cleared up and said he wrote political speeches. Hadly in charge of economic strategy. Again a pathetic effort by Brown to use Blair’s tactics.
Cameron quoted as saying Clegg “is the fourth Lib Dem leader I have faced”.
Where? In Wednesday’s Questions to David Cameron?
Cameron - not stunning by any measure, but pretty good. He actually answered the questions Brown put to him (though the Speaker should’ve done his damn job and ruled them out of line).
Brown - odd, as ever. Accused Cameron of not engaging with big issues (like ID cards, presumably) and kept asking questions instead of answering them. However, was a bit more fluent than his usual (abysmal) standard and managed not to get the shakes.
Clegg - solid, but unspectacular. Better than Ming’s first outing, but it doesn’t take much.
Not that interesting really. I thought a Con backbencher’s question was best (about Peter Hain and his inability to declare donations). Hopefully it’ll spice up once Watt gets charged and Northern Rock has to be sold/nationalised.
121 - And Jonathan’s application as Labour’s new General Secretary takes a momentous step forward.
121. How could you possibly think that tired, hysterical and dated performance from Brown was good. He is useless at PMQ’s and a slight improvement does not mean he remains anything other than a boring, ugly, bully.
The whole of this ‘Brown Blitz’ has completely missed the point. Though the healdine numbers have gone up and down in recent months, what all the polls (regarding Brown personally) have shown is that the more ordinary people see him, the more they dont like him. So whats Labour’s new year policy. Lets have lots more of Brown, that will convince people. Wrong..just think what the rating will be like come 2010.
If I was them I would keep him firmly ensconsed in his bunker and trust to the electoral maths.
125. SeanT
“So: did lefty racists ditch Obama?”
Yes. Based on his own voting logic, this was why Roger wasn’t an Obama supporter (see 48 etc.)
Cameron was good,
Obama is going to win NH,
Cameron was great,
Obama is going to win NH with a landslide
Cameron was amazing.
oh dear.
Pb.com groupthink all over again. Can be costly guys. You should listen to your Labour buddies sometimes.
44 - Just as a point of information, I don’t see McCain as ‘too old’, in fact he reads younger than most of those younger than him (not in looks but in outlook).
I thought it was telling that Brown hung Hain out to dry when the question of his links to the loan company came up.
From what I hear Hain is a dead man walking.
“I’m not being partizan but…..” is as transparent as Cameron not answering Brown’s question about passports. I thought it was a rare interesting retort from Brown and it succeeded in giving the impression Cameron was only interested in a scatter gun list of questions with absolutely no knowledge of the substance behind them.
There are chinks opening in Cameron’s armoury and which are starting to gape. In a few months I wouldn’t be surprised if the tide hasn’t fully turned….
134. Brown was good.
Ron Paul will win the Presidency.
133. I think it’s true. And I think it’s shameful. Bigots of the left unite, you have nothing to lose but your souls.
SeanT@125: Possibly - but what’s potentially worse for Obama than that actually happening is if black voters think that’s what happened. The key will be whether he’s able to maintain his support in South Carolina, which IIRC was lower than Clinton’s until he got on a bit of a roll, then soared as people started to believe he could win. The next poll there will be the one to watch.
135 - you don’t, but plenty seem to. Granted, on this side of the Atlantic though.
133. ??
What is a pre-rehearsed line? A line you practise before you rehearse it?
“Brown was good” - what rot.
137. ‘There are chinks opening in Cameron’s armoury and which are starting to gape’
One for this week’s ‘Colemanballs’ column there.
137: Roger he DID answer the question.
I think Brown’s hope is that Cameron will eventually rise to his bait re the ERM and snap back along the lines of “It wasn’t my fault, I was just a child, all I did was write speeches…”. That, of course, would play very badly with the public and would hit Cameron’s standing quite hard. It is a difficult hand for Cameron to play, because he cannot personally convincingly disassociate himself from it, and he certainly cannot try to argue that it was actually the right thing to do (irrespective of the merits, and Brown’s agreement at the time) - he would be skewered if he tried.
So the tactic? Get Hague or other senior Tories to play it down in as reasonable manner as possible. It takes the heat out of it, and for most neutrals it makes Brown look a bit foolish. Only the most committed anti-Tory treats Cameron’s presence on Black Wednesday as something of significance, so while Brown’s repeated references to it score well with Jonathan and Roger, they are irritating or irrelevant to Mondeo Man and Worcester Woman (or whather the current equivalents are).
Mor generally remaining calm is the key for Cameron. Brown tried to force him to say something unpopular about ID cards today, and Cameron’s measure response that he is opposed to them generally worked.
Guardian called it for Cameron, btw.
Clegg did well for his first time out. Don’t forget it is not about knocking your opponants out in the first round each week - most PMQs are run of the mill. We were spoiled in the Autumn.
Roger @ 137
“is as transparent as Cameron not answering Brown’s question about passports”
Roger, what planet are you on? It’s PMQs, not Leader of the Opposition’s Questions.
Your posts are just getting more and more shameless in demonstrating your vitriol towards DC and inability to say anything positive about him. They are just one big yawn and you are vying with Gordon Brown for the “Who is most detached from reality” award.
142. Face it Roger, a lot of your conferes didn’t like Obama Because He Is Black. You went for the rich white woman. Polly Toynbee with better teeth. The nice middle class girl from Wellesley, the former first lady, the Establishment liberal. As for the Muslim dude with the black skin?
Not Quite Our Sort Dear.
This hasn’t been one of the left’s finest hours.
JohnO (eye eye!) One of my favourite columns!
Tommy Docherty- “To answer that I’d have to have crytal balls”
Tommy Docherty (again)- “I believe football hooligans should face some capital punishment. That’ll deter them from doing it again”!
“In what was apparently a mistake, Mr Brown also indicated that interest rates were likely to be cut this week.”
And if this happens, how will his prior knowledge be challenged? Can this be grounds for alleging compromise of the MPC’s independence?
When rates are cut tomorrow ,Gord will have to give some answers.
150 - Er, always nice to be mentioned…but you’ve lost me a bit there.
151 - I thought Gordon was just about to give a hint on interest rates, but what he said fell just short of that.
Actually, just on Obama, the figures are interesting:
If you look at his % final actual vote vs. “average of polls” in NH, he only underperformed by 1.5%. Prediction: 38.4% to Actual: 36.9% (I think). In other words, the poll predictions for Obama were within the margin of error of +/- 1.5%.
However, for Clinton, this was totally different. Her predicted score was 30%, but her received tally was 39%. Even when you take a point or two off Obama and Edwards, this is a huge difference.
In other words, the polls predicted Obama correctly. They massively underestimated Clinton.
This could be because of…
(1) Shy Clintonistas - like “shy Tories” people were embarassed to admit voting for Hillary, but she has significant hidden support
(2) Late swing - people felt sorry for her at the last minute and changed their minds to give her a “fair shot”
(£) High Turnout - Clintons supporters were, on average, poorer, female and more blue collar - polls aren’t picking up these supporters. If turnout is low in other primaries, this could benefit Obama.
If it is (2) then this effect might disappear now Clinton is back in the running. If it is (3) this similarly might affect turnout in other states if the contest is perceived to be over for Obama - her supporters could get complacent.
What it isn’t though, I think, is people saying “yes” to Obama and then voting Clinton. Obamas support was within predictions.
I therefore expect a degree of “over-correction” in the markets in response to the NH upset, which may affect betting prices on Obama.
It is also worth noting that, to date, Obama is still ahead on convention delegates.
149 Watch out, your blind hatred of the left is beginning to consume you. You can’t see any event or issue outside this narrow view point. Chill out a bit ok?
Clearly Clegg leads from the middle rather than from the front. It was bizarre to watch Cameron and Brown standing at the heads of their party whilst Clegg spoke from the middle of the bench. An idea they’ve had, but not a very good one maybe?
One for the conspiracy theories
Of course, there is plenty of room for hank-panky:
81% of New Hampshire ballots are counted in secret by a private corporation named Diebold Election Systems (now known as “Premier”). The elections run on these machines are programmed by one company, LHS Associates, based in Methuen, MA. We know nothing about the people programming these machines, and we know even less about LHS Associates. We know even less about the secret vote counting software used to tabulate 81% of our ballots. People like to say “but we use paper ballots! They can always be counted by hand!”
But they’re not. They’re counted by Diebold. Only a candidate can request a hand recount, and most never do so. And a rigged election can easily become a rigged recount, as we learned in Ohio 2004, where two election officials were convicted of rigging their recount….
149 - But Obama’s team are making a play of coming back strongly in South Carolina because there is a large black population in that state. Inevitably (and sadly) some people will be attracted to a particular candidate due to skin colour. But I don’t think Clinton’s campaign has focussed on that any more than Obama, and probably somewhat less.
What happened yesterday was a combination of:
1. Uncommitted people following the prevailing wind and telling pollsters they would vote for Obama, but actually not going to the polling stations because they are still fundamentally uncommitted types.
2. Clinton’s supporters having a backs-to-the wall spirit the media never really recognised and turning out in numbers.
3. More independents than predicted voting in a Republican race which the polls and media wrongly claimed would be closer than on the Democrat side.
4. An admirable bloody-mindedness amongst some New Hampshire people who quite deliberately chose not to read from the script the media had so carefully written for them.
I am broadly in favour of Obama as the person most likely to win the election for the Democrats (although I am more interested in foreign and trade policy implications and there the picture is more mixed). But I have to say, it was a great laugh to see everyone on the media and here (myself included) given an almighty dollop of egg on their faces.
SeanT 149. Ridiculous! I can’t think of any ‘lefty’ as you call them not wanting someone because of their ethnic origin. I can imagine several on the right wanting them for that reason. They think it makes them look inclusive and cosmopolitan but only conservatives could think like that in 2007. Most others passed that stage decades ago,
Interesting quote attributed to David Cameron
David Cameron on radio 5 live yesterday said that McCain was his favourite. What does that tell you?
156 - but don’t Brown and Cameron sit in the middle of their benches? Not really sure of your point…
156. Clegg was in themiddle surrounded by his front benchers, just like…. Brown & Cameron.
149. Indeed.
In fact, the reaction of “redneck” America - the erstwhile Republican and Republican-inclined red-states - so far have shown themselves to be far more open-minded and cosmopolitan than anyone gives them credit for.
They have shown huge courage.
Not over for Obama yet. He still made a strong showing in (as you say) a very establishment Liberal inclined-state.
152. JohnO. Apologies. I thought you were the poster “eye eye”! Struck me as your sense of humour not to mention your interest in the misuse of the language!
159, Roger, you are defining “left” very narrowly there to the achingly right-on intellectual left, the stereotypical Guardian reading, Islington dwelling, dinner party hosting New Lab construct. If you go to a working mens club in South Wales, or some of the old industrial towns up North and ask your audience there, Labour to a man and far to the left of the present Government, to talk about the big issues of the day, you’d find racists amongst them.
Sadly they walk amongst us and wear every political stripe
155. Jonathan
“149 Watch out, your blind hatred of the left is beginning to consume you. You can’t see any event or issue outside this narrow view point. Chill out a bit ok? ”
Substitute “Cameron” for “left” as the 8th word in this statement Jonathan.
Then amuse yourself by reading it back to yourself.
Now it applies 100% to your good self.
Seant good point many might not say it,but the USA might just be ready for a female president, but in my opinion Hilary Rodham will just get beat to a republican this year.
However I am not sure in the secrecy of the polling booth, they may shy away from voting for a man of mixed race.
Depressing in the extreme but a major factor.
As for Nick Clegg well done, must admit its the first Lib dem I am going to vote for, now my seat has changed to outer York.
It was wasted in Rydale for too long.