New Hampshire election night special… continued 2
January 9th, 2008Continue the discussions here as the New Hampshire results come in
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Fox showing Clinton lead going back up.
on CNN they say watch Hanover as that is a big college town and no votes are counted yet !!!
If Obama pulls this off he’s going to have the youth vote to thank. If the college towns don’t come in for him it looks like it’ll be Hillary’s night.
Hillary lead now 4,400!
Lead back to 4%. Grrr. OK now I am going to sleep.
C’mon…er…. Ron Paul!!
N’nite.
This is such a tight race, it really could go either way, I still think Obama will sneak it, but only just.
from previous 201 - Ah, Morus, just be patient! Still lots of little squares down there (referencing the NH town map) to help out Obama.
College town I keep checking for number is Hannover = Dartmouth. Am doubtful the Ivy League will come to rescue of the Belle of Radcliffe.
Hillary wins Hudson, Londonderry, Auburn, and Hampstead. If Obama needed the suburbs on the Nashua-Manchester stretch, he’s in trouble now.
Obama wins Chichester by a single vote, doing well in the SW (Dublin Jaffrey Peterborough)
SALEM goes Clinton 51% Obama 27% - big win for her
6. He now needs a 3% lead in the remaining votes. Doesn’t look likely…
re-post from previous thread - any thoughts? i understand the exit pollsters don’t want to ‘call’ the result, but why don’t they publishn thier numbers and just say its within the margin of error? even if thier stats said 39.71% v 39.69% that would be interesting to see no?
McCains lead down to 5.6% Hold the front page….
New Hampshire democrats knew that if they voted Obama big time then it would totally kill Clinton’s chances. Ultimately there was too much affection for Hillary (and Bill) amongst the democrats to finish her off so early in the process.
I think this affection is misplaced. Although I think Clinton would make a good president, she has little or no chance of beating a half decent republican candidate.
Tell me if I’m reading this right:
Most of the big population centres are 70%+ counted. College tons, not so populous, are still largely to be counted. In current form in more populous areas Clinton’s lead should extend.
Thus Obama is going to have to win and win very big in these college towns?
Other big college down is Durham = U of NH
Grr, I wanted an early night.
How many votes are exected in each primary- the total votes so far seem low- 120k or so on Dem side, which would mean 240k or so total votes I guess- Is NH reall only a bit bigger than Iowa?
12 - That feels right to me. Plus lets give BILL CLINTON some credit. Personally thought he looked awful in past few days and sounded worse. YET IT MAY WELL BE that he was truly connecting with critical swing voters attracted to Obama OR Edwards, and brought them toward Hilary
Durham and Hanover are the two I’m now watching (and the rest of Nashua and Manchester obviously). Lyme went over 50% for Obama, so if that were to be replicated in the college towns it could halve HC’s lead
Obama pulling back a few hundred but needs more quickly.
15 - Come on. You knew that was never going to happen.
13 There is also quite a bit of suburban and small town turf left to report, am thinking that will break Obama’s way and bring him home.
anyone want to call this one?
Repost from end of last thread, in response to SSI speculating on the reasons for the comeback: maybe there’s quite a few Democrats who reacted like me to all the open gloating about Hillary? My American contacts are with one (right-wing) exception mainstream liberals from way back, and most of them are fiercely pro-Hillary. Not anti-Obama, but not happy with the ‘misogynist’ way she was being portrayed as a wicked establishment witch.
A question: if Hillary wins NH (and Betfair now 1.6:2.4 leabing that way), she’s I’d think in pretty good shape again with the obama bandwagon derailed. Obama’s people will I guess say hey, it’s those crusty old middle-class (=British working-class) voters, won’t see many of them in some of the other states. But if he loses another one I’d think the outlook isn’t good.
But what if she narrowly loses? I’d think it’ll be portrayed as a score draw, everything to play for, etc. - more exciting for the media that way. so those last few % are pretty important.
Amherst 45% Obama, 33% CLinton - not the 50% needed from campus types - posher students though, right?!
OK 1 more thought. A lot of independents could be angered if the Dems don’t choose Obama. They might switch to McCain, who will be riding the surge of relative success in Iraq.
Clinton could well lose in November.
3k to 4k lead seems pretty consistent - Obama keeps claiming back a few hundred at a time, getting closer, then some chunk comes in for Clinton
BO needs a 2.7% lead from the remaining 51.5% of the votes. Tightening slightly…
For the Dems, what’s the chance of all three staying in to the end now?
Clinton will get some mojo back now, Obama will fall back a bit (at least in the hype stakes) and perhaps that will give Edwards some room, especially in traditionally populist states? Feb 5th could end up a mess, with no-one coming out massively ahead.
20. True, do we think that a ‘late student surge’ will help prop Obama up to be above Hillary?
Is this looking good for Hillary or bad for Obama?
NYT:
“Lyme, with a heavy population of Dartmouth faculty and administrators, is in: Mr. Obama 54 percent, Mrs. Clinton 22 percent. That’s a good indication of what she can expect from Hanover.”
16 New Hampshire is much SMALLER than Iowa. Turnout difference so far is difference between a Caucus (2-3 hour meeting) and an election.
New Hamphire turnout as % of registered voters will exceed TO% in remaining primary statesm, because the NH primary is a real civic tradition.
BUT lower TO% will be on MUCH higher registration in mid-size and big states. Why we’re getting shifting from retail to wholesale politics.
25. Lots of states to play for before that happens. I don’t think its the same independents who are voting for McCain and Obama. They are split on a pro-war, anti-war basis.
2.8% needed after 52.5% counted. Doesn’t look likely…
McCain-Romney tightens again to a 5.4% lead…
30 Whole Conn. Valley is mostly that way
Lead back to 3,800 after 54% counted on ABC.
and don’t forget in a lot of primaries to come independents can’t vote in the Democrat or Republican primary - purely party basis - so if Democrat’s are big for Hillary that can only be good for her - one big state California they say is an open primary … so we will see how NH plays out - still too close to call
32 Yes
Call…
Whatever the result in NH is, I hope the BBC won’t make the same stupid clumsy mistake they did the other day when they said that Obama had “won”. “Winning” means actually winning, i.e. being elected to something. Some people just don’t understand proportionality.
Ron Paul’s speech on Cspan is great. Far more instinctively anti-war than any of the top tier Dems
33. Are these results officially in? I was under the impression it was still being based on exit polls.
+3300.
So what we shall we say is needed before Durham and co hit? 1500?
Hillary’s lead for registered democrats seems a rather important fact for the coming primaries. Any news on the Conneticut valley? (Hanover etc?)
Back to 2%
41 — agreed
Obama’s pulled back back about 300 between 54% and 55% counted on ABC.
BO back out to 3% needed after 54% counted. I’d say no way, Jose…
31- thx- for some reason always assume NH was bigger than Iowa- in pop terms- just because it always seems like Iowa’s the little countryside warm up state!
So much for Luntz’s focus group. If Hillary wins I wonder whether Newsnight will finally see him for the charlatan most on here know him to be? As for Hillary’s possible victory….. Isn’t it likely to have a lot to do with the different demographic in NH? As I said the other day the more sophisticated voters of NH are less likely to be impressed with the rather preachery style of Obama than those in Iowa
I’m going to go Hillary. She’s been leading for yonks now. I’m not doing this on any scientific basis - gut feeling!
Lead 3,500 after 56% on ABC. Still holding.
McCain slipping to 5.3% lead
50. No, it’s doddery oldsters like you voting for a similarly aged woman.
What’s behind the McCain slip? What are the demographic differences in the counties that are increasing Romney numbers?
£5k appears to Lay Obama on Betfair….
Some Larger Towns Still Yet to Report:
Hanover (Dartmouth) - likely Obama
Dover (U of NH) - ditto
Merrimack - likely Clinton
Berlin - ditto
Derry - hard to tell
3% still needed after 56% counted…
clinton price on the verge of collapsing on BF
The fat lady has finally sung - what an incredible evening. I counted 5clear changes in the Clinton/Obama leadership plus lots of other sharp movements either way on Betfair and therefore massive betting opportunities for those who could remain 100% focused until 2.30am.
Goodnight all.
Obama 3.3 on Betfair ought to tempt fans of the students-for-Barack theory.
Edwards is skipping michigan.
Clinton may be helped by the confusion in the republican race. For instance, if Romney had won both Iowa and New hampshire then he would have been able to begin his attacks on Clinton. These attacks would have then played into nationwide surveys and polling about any Clinton-Romney presidential race.
I don’t think Clinton would have done very well in that circumstance and Democrats would have become seriously uneasy about nominating her. Because she is infact free from any republican attack, the Democrat race can become a much more insular, party political affair which enables Clinton to win.
Cmon people, you’re ignoring the big drama of the night. Will Hunter get a thousand votes? It’s on a knife-edge! 610 votes in after 53% of the vote in. Are there 390 hunterites in the college towns?
Nite Peter. Stay cheerful. Obama might still win the overall thing and provide you your £000s. And even if he doesn’t, it was still a great spot by you - and Mike S - all those months ago.
Kudos and respect.
Now I really AM to sleep.
Lead now 3,800 after 59%.
Manchester 75% reported, Nashua 55%.
Now 4,100 after 60%!
65 Sean - £1 in the party pot please for confusing me with PtP
Gosh, Ron Paul is going on. But at least he’s got more life in him than McCain.
By the way, spare a thought for the Clinton campaign team who just got demoted - not so bad after all, eh?
is SEA SHANTY IRISH still looking for the Obama last ditch surge?
THIS IS THE WAY A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CANPAIGN IS SUPPOSED TO BE!
Say that with joy, not as a screed. Those of you whose only experience was 2004, well looks like America is really TRYING to do better in 2008.
And I mean EVERYONE. Bless EVERY voter who turned out today - regardless of result does make me proud of my country.
Should make all you Brits proud to - after all we colonials may still be revolting, but really we’re just trying to take our finest heritage from the Old Country - freedom and liberty - and trying in our feeble way to live up to YOUR highest ideals
About 4,400 in Clinton’s favour after 61%….
looks good for her…
BO needs 3.6% lead in the remaining 40%. It’s not going to happen…
Now 4,400 after 61%. Hillary lead growing (for now).
Thanks to all for being the best rolling source of information this evening. FWIW, I agree with Rod - Obama can’t come back from this deficit tonight. Night all!
74,75 Matt, Rod …….it’s over!
At current rate Clinton will gain another 2k lead from Manchester/Nashua alone - unless the later reporting areas of those are less pro Clinton of course.
71 — spare a thought for whoever laid Clinton at 250 on Betfair.
College towns still to come could still make this very close..think Obama odds of 7 on betfair still look good to me
73 When do these Colleges count, SSI?
75 - Sorry Rod. There doesn’t seem to be enough time. The Clintons have done it.
Betfair now convinced - you can only get 500-1 laying Obama!
And yes, SI - unbeatable drama, and thanks for all the commentaries.
Am now reeling to bed…we’ve all been scrupulously judicious throughout the evening, so I’ll just allow myself one tiny YAY!
Aha… ptp arrives… what a turnaround! How are things looking for you?
BO needs 4.3% lead in remaining 39%…
Yep, I’m calling it for Hillary.
Wow. What a turnaround. I think maybe I was guilty of underestimating her.
71 - Depends which part of the Empire you are talking about. “Team” is not quite the word I’d use to describe the group dynamic. And her message is STILL awful. Plus happen to know that Clinton media group grope was making frantic calls just before Xmas for talent who could work over Christmas to start softening Hilary’s image. That’s should have been done MONTHS ago.
Am thinking that what’s saved her from poltical near-death experience is:
WHOOLY - whipped the field campaign into shape)
BILL C - still the greatest Democratic communicator
72 - Yes
Gah. A few hours ago I was just about to click to back Hillary at 55 to cover my Obama bet. MY FINGER WAS OVER THE BUTTON, DAMMIT.
Rod note that the 60% or whatever is not turnout is is the number of precincts that have counted so it could that the larger ones are still to come so we might have less than 50% of the votes so far.
Can’t see how Obama can do it now - CNN report that the Univ precincts have only around 5k registered Dem or Ind voters - unless Obama gets 90% - there just are not enough voters for him to turn it around.
Republican turnout a shade behind Dem so no way Edwards can poll more than Romney.
Off to bed to nurse my losses…
82 PtP - haven’t heard from you for hours. Did you make any money in play tonight?
Loads of implications from Hillary’s win, but too much to take in tonight!
89: yeah, me too. Kinda glad McCain came good, and Paddy Power paid out early (bet they’re feeling pretty stupid now!).
This is a personal record for me, I have NEVER had a 100s bet come in!
£16 @100 and £6 @95, the rest lower… truly incredible!!
For once I am in agreement with Nick Palmer but perhaps for different reasons.
A Clinton win is great news as she may well ensure a Republican in the White house from next year.
Fox - gap could close.
Hillary 1.13-1.14 on Betfair. May be prudent to lay off.
Erghh Elizabeth Edwards is going on about the mill again. Please change the record or I won’t make it to super tuesday alive.
OK, thanks.. you are correct, so read “..in the 39% remaining precints”
82 - large turnouts mean long counts; this is all (or mostly) hand counting of paper ballots and they have TWO separate races to count (am sure they will leave VP race which is a joke anyway til later)
So just depends town-by-town when they finish.
99: yeah, Manchester/Nashua seem to have stalled for quite a while now. Hrrrrm
BO needs 4.6% lead in last 37% precints..
94. If it comes in it certainly will be fun.
Oh gawd Edwards is going on about the liver transplant again…
It’s the same speech as Iowa.
Is that the bloke from Desperate Housewives standing behind Edwards? Better watch for the plumbing wrench……
103 Its mawkish isn’t it. He campaigns like he is still a tort lawyer
just quit Edwards, won’t you …
CNN Hanover and Durham college towns still to come
95. If this is an open primary, with 40% “independent”, then maybe the extra-than-usual turnout is a load of Republican people voting for Hillllary to make sure the Republican candidate wins in November.
103,104 — It’s the same bloody speech as always. However much I love this election what the candidates say is incredibly repetitive.
Not a single update from Manchester in an hour….
This is the most difficult question of the night:
Who is most boring? McCain or Edwards
105 — Yes it is. He’s been campaigning for edwards for a while
is someone ballot stuffing in Hanover and Durham seems to take a long time to count …. hmm.
Are the Democrats contesting Michigan, or is it one of those states that’s getting punished for going early?
100 - Just hope no-one transposed some numbers!
101 - that’s dependent on your total turnout estimate, correct?
106. And that’s why it sounds so insincere… he’s an establishment figure running an anti-establishment campaign. It beggars belief. I’m surprised 17% take him seriously, to be honest…
94 - Congratulations! I’m with you on the 95, but only for $10. A decent chunk of that is to cover betting on Obama, but still … I think Mr Herdson also got the price in the hundreds…
114 - Am sure that Hilary’s observers are watching them like hawks!
He used the Boss….damn.
Have all the major media outfits now called it for Hillary? - I want to go to bed.
105- Looks like it, but he’s a plumber, not a steelworker, swizz, swizz
Results have completely stalled.
Is Obama being at 8 reflective of anything other than a very weak book? CNN call it ‘too close to call”
121 — No one’s called it yet.
110 Keep in mind these candidate are now speaking to MANY people who just tuned in TONIGHT. So its old news to you, but new to them.
We’ve got a Senator who was elected as the “Mom in Tennis Shoes” in 1992. Got so tired of that phrase that I wanted to straggle either her or myself. BUT she kept driving that message over and over and it won her the election.
118 congrats too! I saw the first precincts coming in and couldn’t resist…
I’ve not been away.
It’s been like watching a train crash. I’ve seen some swings on the race track but nothing like this.
£1,300 down on the night. My worst single day’s betting on Politics. The only crumb of comfort is that I didn’t wreck my long-term positions. I should be able to claw back the losses, but it’s been hugely disappointing.
Still, only myself to blame. Did much the same with Kerry, when I bought what the polls were saying. Treat US polls with caution. Should have known.
Ah well, bed time now. Nobody died and I’ll be back tomorrow.
Nite all.
Can we PLEASE get a call?
I want to hear their speeches!
116. I’m just going on fractions of what’s come in versus what’s yet to come. To overturn the current 2.6% lead after 63% of precincts, BO needs a 4.5% lead in the remaining 37% of precincts.
It’s a guestimate, since I don’t know the turnouts in any of the precincts…
115 Kind of and Yes. Obama is NOT on the ballot, Hilary is, cant remember re Edwards. Have been speculating about possible Obama MI write-in, but seems doubtful after tonight.
Hillary lead over 5,000!
Hillary’s price on Betfair now 1.06/1 - that’s good enough for me.
+5000 up now - OB looks a gonner
AP calls it for Hillary
125 - Because it’s just too close to call. May be hours, I’m afraid. Of course the night is young out here in WA.
115 & 131 only Hillary and Kucinich are on the ballot
AP calling HRC win
35 - Maybe I spoke too soon!
BO needs 5% in the last 36%. I concur.
Lead STILL rising. Now 5,300 after 66%.
MSNBC calls it for Hillary
MORE! Now 5,700!
Is it me or are C-SPAN replaying McCain’s speech?
Please, God, no!
128 Peter - Yes a quite extraordinary night and you’re right, the pollsters got it well and truly round their necks - several times, I’ve never known anything like it.
Bound to have major implications for many of the US Election markets - much to ponder tomorrow.
If you’re still there, Goodnight.
CNN refuse to call it - everyone else seems to have
128 bad luck, you cant win them all though life would be boring if profitable otherwise.
131 - Thanks. This race for the Democratic nomination looks an awful lot tighter than what it did 12 hours ago.
What percentage of the votes counted do we think that it will be called that Hillary has won?
149 - Benny, MSNBC and AP have already called it.
127 - Watch me start screaming if Hanover and Durham come in at 60% or more for Obama…I’ll still win some money from the Obama bets, but about £300 short of what I now win if Hillary gets it. Having been cheated by Edwards’ share of the vote (.08% away) in Iowa, I feel I deserve a bit of luck!
I owe some Obama fans some consolatory drinks - you coming to the party?
Back in 1916 when Woodrow Wilson ran for re-election against Charles Evans Hughes, the vote turned out to be VERY close on Election Night. Every new return almost changed the paper thin lead. By and large the Northeast went for Hughes, the South was solid for Wilson, the Midwest was split. Became clear that the West would decide, in particular California which was the only state west of Texas with a significant population (way smaller than today!)
Kathleen Strand, of the CLinton campaign team, is saying that it was a victory for “reality over rhetoric”. I think that is a strong sound bite.
150 - I want to see the speeches, do you think Obama will concede soon?
52 Very late that night, it appeared that Hughes had finally clinched the win. At that point, both he and Wilson retired to bed (not the same one).
Obama going to speak shortly !!!
Warning - very large number of votes have come in in last 30 mins but only a small % of precincts.
Could there still be far more votes to come than we think?
BO needs 6.8% with 32% of precincts to report..
149. They could have called it at around the 45% precincts counted, in my view..
154 - I think Clinton will give her speech before Obama does. He still has to choose his tone. Clinton will wait a bit but her campaign hq are celebrating and have called it for her. What was the Romney speech like?
144
Mr McCain’s speech reminded me of the narrator on the Waltons, so I quite liked it.
Lead now 7,300! Amazing!
154 - I spoke too soon if rej4sl is correct
This is why I prefer PoK3r to political betting, at least I know what the odds of a one outer making it on the river are. Right now I’ve no idea whether Obama has one out, ten outs or no outs at all…
Gap is over 6000 now, Clinton has got this in the bag.
McCain lead down to 5.0%
55 BUT as it turned out it wasn’t Hughes who won California. It was Wilson, by a margin of less than 4k votes out of nearly 1 million cast. Which was just enough to re-elect Woodrow Wilson.
64 - Hopi Sen. Hunter’s going to get to 1000.
Here comes Obama
Here comes Obama. The team must be disappointed: the train has been derailed. He’s still in it though.
I reckon there are 10,000 votes left to come in in Nashua, about 3500 left in Manchester, then probably no more than 10,000 between Durham and Hanover.
Say 25000 from the ‘urban’ parts left to go - Obama would need about 60% from those sort of places to make this really tight again.
BO out to 7.6% required…
CNN project Hillary win
151 - Me too, still nervous about the college towns but if Hillary has done it I’m nearly £400 to the good……I’m a relative newbie to betting and I confess I’ve done it by ignoring most of the advice on here
and the polls since Iowa!!
That amount means a lot to me but the satisfaction and excitement rating is even greater.
Hope she’s done it and I’m not celebrating too early but if it’s being called…..
Obama’s coming out now! Did anyone see the big guy in the green shirt get refused a hug? ouch!
167…. Yaaaay for Hunter. it’s a huge triumph for whatever it is Hunter stands for.
Fox calls for Hillary
Lead DOWN 1,500. Now 5,800.
Obama about to speak, this speech is more important than thw one that he gave last week as he has to put a really positive spin on this surprising loss.
175 — He makes Atilla the Hun look like Polly Toynbee.
I really, really want to see how the Grauniad approach tonight’s events: they’ve been telling us it’s President Obama for the past four days!
Ahh. My feed’s just died. Is OHB speaking yet?
66 Early the next morning, an reporter (perhaps AP) knocked on the front door of the Beacon Hill mansion of Charles Evan Hughes.
“Is Mr. Hughes awake?” the journo asked?
“The President has not yet risen,” answered the rather supercilious butler.
“Then you’d better wake him and tell him he’s not the President,” retorted the ink-splatter wretch.
BO needs 7.7% lead
Well, I may have lost all my money, but at least I can continue to feel superior about Americans being racist. Yay!
The loss is made worse by the knowledge that I could’ve made a fortune. Is this the biggest politics-related upset in betting history?
180 - I know. It’s been ridiculous. Did you see the article today entitled “believers flock to hear Obama”.
Yup Hanover came in and she lost by 1500 votes
Hanover Obama 58% Clinton 26% - still getting the Student vote, but not the turnout
The fact that Obama won Hanover by just over a thousand votes led the networks to call it as that was the town which they thought the big Obama vote would come from.
I wonder if Hillary will kick Obama whilst he’s down.
Dover went for Clinton - and Berlin by 2/1. That’s good enough for me - mea culpa!
A very strong speech after a shock defeat.
This really is a polling disaster isn’t it. Every major polling organisation got it wrong outside the margin of error
191. I think he came out first as he didn’t need to change his speech. He could have used this almost word for word if he had won.
Clever - no need to look like you lost on the 30 second news clip just because you did.
BO needs 9.1% lead in remaining 25%
193 - That’s why its such a good speech. It doesn’t seem out of place even though he’s lost.
193 - tradition & good manners for the loser to speak before the winner. Am sure that both Obama & Clinton camps had a better handle on the number than us or any network. So both candidate have had some time to prepare.
It’s Obama the preacher
192. Not necessarily. If they had polled every single person in New Hampshire over the weekend, it would not have picked-up the crocodile-tears and the staged-sexist incident…
“A king … etc” very clever. As, I think it was, Morus said the other night, his intonation is even a bit MLK-esqe
He is very, very good. But something went wrong tonight and he needs to work out why.
? Where are you lot watching all these speeches you’re talking about?
Maths: if there is an election between candidate A and candidate B, and if the votes are counted as a running-total in random order, the probability that A will be ahead of B throughout the count is (a-b)/(a+b) where a and b are the number of votes for A and B respectively.
BO needs 9.7%
Not a single mention of Clinton in his speech. It was entirely focused on his movement, which he must keep rolling.
God, Mr and Mrs Obama are a stunningly beautiful couple.
202 - try http://www.wmur.com/video/15004171/index.html it is the NH local news station and is quite good.
Now that New Hampshire’s a done deal, am starting to think this is NOT a bad thing for Obama.
Certainly brought him, Alexrod & Co, his supporter and all of us back down to earth.
Will now increase the stakes in South Carolina and Nevada.
Stil think Culinary endorsement of Obama (unless they flip, highly unlikely because it would make them look really bad) means that Nevada’s a done deal, albeit closer than if he’d NH won by 5% or more.
South Carolina will be the real prize, and a fascinating race on BOTH sides.
A highly interesting night tonight. A[nother] very good speech too.
204 - He congratulated her at the outset
Grr Fox News cuts in halfway through the speech to tell us they are changing hosts, why couldn’t they stay quiet until Obama finished a very good speech.
209 - ah, my feed had died for the first 30 secs of his speech
Hillary’s on
I don’t know if I can stand to watch her speech.
Bill wanted to be on the stage with her, she hugged him and Chelsea, and pushed them back off the stage again!
Look for Bill Clinton to camp out in South Carolina. BECAUSE now Hilary has a fighting chance to hold and/or win back the Black vote down there. Still is going to be a hard sell against a guy who is channelling MLK. BUT if anyonce can do it, that person is Bill Clinton