Sean Fear’s Friday slot
January 11th, 2008
The Far Right in the Midlands
Last night, Labour held a seat which the Conservatives had expected to gain, at Ibstock and Heather, on North West Leicestershire District Council. The Conservatives had won two out of three seats in May 2007, in what had formerly been a very safe Labour ward. What seems to have prevented them winning the third seat was a very strong performance from the BNP, who contested the seat for the first time, and won second place. The full result was Labour 699 , BNP 637 ,Conservative 515 , Lib Dem 411. The Conservatives lost nearly 200 votes, compared to 2007, and plainly suffered more than Labour did at BNP hands.
In by-elections, since May 2007, the BNP has performed consistently well in the Midlands, outside the big urban centres. In two by elections in Nuneaton & Bedworth, in June and September last year, the party won 27.3%, and 21.5%. In a Leicester County Council by-election, in Shepshed in October, they won 20%, their second highest vote share in a County Council division, a result confirmed in a town council election, just before Christmas. Their best result came in the safe Labour ward of Church Gresley, in South Derbyshire, in October, when they won 35%, again taking second place.
While they plainly took more votes from the Conservatives last night, and in June’s by-election in Nuneaton, this pattern isn’t consistent. In Church Gresley, they took far more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives, and took them equally in Shepshed. Quite often, turnout rises very sharply when the BNP contest a by-election, as former abstainers are motivated to vote both for and against the party.
Plainly, there is quite a lot of latent support for the far Right, in a part of the country where they have never really been active until very recently. In the 1970’s, the National Front gathered little support outside of London, Leicester, Sandwell, and some Northern towns. Although the BNP draws its support from a wider range of districts, that too has been concentrated in large urban areas.
In all likelihood, some white voters, at least, who’ve moved out of increasingly multi-racial cities, like Birmingham, Leicester, Derby and Nottingham, are very receptive to the BNP’s message. The BNP has recently suffered from an internal split, and many of Griffin’s critics are based in the East Midlands. However much this may damage the party’s ability to organise effectively, it would appear from last night’s result that this split has not registered with local voters.
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Interesting that the Lib Dem vote almost doubled in figures compared to May 07. Also only party to increase % who stood last time. Clearly UKIP not standing and BNP now standing had some corellation.
Results: Thursday 10th January 2008.
North West Leicestershire DC, Ibstock and Heather
Lab 699 (30.9; -3.1), BNP 637 (28.2; +28.2), Con 515 (22.8; -12.6), LD David Wyatt 411 (18.2; +7.4), [UKIP (0.0; -19.8)].
Majority 62. Turnout 40.4%. Lab hold. Last fought 2007.
Thatcham TC Thatcham Central (West Berkshire)
LD Stephanie Steevenson 762 LD Jason Leake 748 (59.7), Con 515/494 (40.3).
Majorities 247/233. Turnout 28%. LD hold x2.
Thatcham TC, Thatcham North
LD Annie Sparkes 625 (54.3), Con 527 (45.7).
Majority 98. Turnout 27.5%. LD gain from Con.
From Lloyd Harris: -
An Independent was elected unopposed in South ward of Kings Langley PC, an Ind gain from Con.
I don’t know NW Leics well enough to know if the LDs did a full campaign or it was just UKIP not standing but still an interesting result for the LDs.
Interesting to note that the epicentre of the places Sean refers to is Ashby de la Zouch. As a former resident of that benighted dump, I am not surprised that fascism is taking root in the area.
I think (hope) that most of those voting BNP aren’t genuinely racist, but see a local council by-election as a safe way of expressing some kind of frustration at what they perceive as too much immigration. Perhaps they feel that votes like this will inch the mainstream parties a little rightwards on the issue, i.e. people don’t actually want the BNP’s ’solutions’ to the issue, but they aren’t happy with the status quo?
In a general election where more is at stake, I doubt the BNP will do as well. Let us hope not
Reposted from last thread for Tim 13 nad Augustus Carp
Speaking as one of those people (and the original poster to whom Tim 13 was replying 1t 180) I can tell you that they are basically currently dormant but plans are afoot to get pepole active again at the next election. I am by far the most politicised of my fellow hunters and persuading them that canvassing is a worthwhile way to campaign can be difficult (they found it difficult to believe it would make any difference to the outcome in a constituency). Nonetheless the fact that the hunting infrastructure remains (despite three years of ban) means I think that if the Cons have a decent chance of victory then they will pound the streets again.
I would however like to stress the fact that they are and see themselves as hired guns (they will canvass and leaflet for the pro-hunting candidates but they do not always hold stereotypically Tory views in other areas).
5 - Max U - Forgive my relative naivity, but why are hunters planning to become politically active at the next election, beyond revenge against candidates who were to blame for the hunting act.
As somebody not unsympathetic to hunters, I would recommend leaving the legislative book as it is. Repealing the hunting ban would just open up the issue again, and the anti-hunting lobby would have a chance to point out very few jobs have been lost, and no major prosecutions have been brought. Sit tight, keep quiet, and keep hunting - the police aren’t interested and the anti-hunting lobby has lost a lot of energy since the bill was forced through. Why wake them up and re-energise them?
5 Thanks, Max, that’s very interesting. In the past I have known the Labour Party have similar “hired guns” from a residents Association, where there were particular local issues - some people drifted away after a few years, and some got hooked. It will be interesting to see how it develops. Of course, if the Conservative Party can convince hunters that the party is for “people like us”, then they will have succeeded.
5 - opposing hunting drove out Jackie Ballard in 2001 and David Rendel in 2005. Jackie was not a great MP and was replaced by a less than brilliant one, Adrian Flook, who was duly ousted.
Rendel was a far better MP than Ballard, and Benyon is a far better MP than Flook.
Will hunting be an issue to enthuse the electorate in 2009/10? There may have been something vindictive in ousting Rendel; how will this work next time. We shall see.
The NF were pretty big in Leicester in the 1970s, as Sean notes. It could be that people who voted for them there a generation ago have moved out of the city and taken that tradition with them…perhaps passing it on to their kids.
‘white flight’ looks like being an increasingly important, though rarely discussed, influence on voting in the years ahead.
Let’s just forget about local elections or Euro elections as being useful predictors of a general election…
At the moment we are on track for a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with an outside chance of a slim Labour majority…
9 But Harry, along with “white flight” goes “black flight” or whatever it might be called. The BME middle classes are exactly like their white counterparts, in that they want to move to a “nicer” area, however that is defined. Surely one phenomenon will counteract the other?
10 - I wouldn’t put money on either of those scenarios!
9/11 What interests me is whether an influx of white voters who move out of big cities, in part because of their growing non-white populations, “converts” the local population towards supporting the BNP.
10. I’m guessing this post is based on biased opinion as I haven’t seen any recent data suggesting your view!
11. I wonder. Have a look at the ethnic map of the UK and see how concentrated the BME populations are.We are heading slowly toward the same kind of segregation as exists in much of the US. ‘white flight’ is by no means a merely middle class phenomenon either - it’s as much about the skilled working class.
btw. Asbhy de la Zouch always looked such a romantic name when I saw it on a map…is it really so awful?
4: “I think (hope) that most of those voting BNP aren’t genuinely racist, but see a local council by-election as a safe way of expressing some kind of frustration at what they perceive as too much immigration.”
Rest assured that is usually the case. The posh, Tory bit of Burnley where I live was the first non-inner city ward to elect a BNP candidate in the recent past, which caused such an upset that the BBC and ITN sent their reporters to do their “BNP surge?” pieces from our village green.
A few years on and they are a busted flush, and the Tory candidate is back to winning 60% of the vote.
15 Harry, (1) you may be right, I don’t have enough data, but I am aware of increasing BME middle class residence in suburbia and rural villages, and (2) yes, it really is awful.
Morus-6
I can see what you are getting at but there are a few reasons to contine agitating (some of which I agree with and some not):
1. Although as you rightly point out the ban is not being enforced very seriously it is still neccesary to watch one’s back quite a lot especially close to roads etc. Anyone with a video camera on a road could get some evidence, not just the police. In deeply rural areas such as mid Devon this is less of a problem but in areas such as the home counties it precludes traditional hunting altogether so it becomes drag hunting (which is not much fun).
2. Revenge: as you rightly point out this is a big motivation- hunting people really do hate the labour party for what they did (although not, as I have said before, neccesarily for other reasons).They would love to see the people (Labour mps) who tried to put them out of jobs themselves loosing their jobs.
3. The biggest reason for me is that I can not see how the present situation can continue much longer- either the law starts being enforced properly or it should be repealed. From my point of view I obviously want to see it repealed, however from a neutral point of view I do not think that laws should be on the statute book which are widely unenforeced and widely disregarded (in an organised manner). To maintain the rule of law in general particular laws should either be fully enforced or should not be there at all.
Just on a more general note, Labour holding on again in this corner of Leicestershire following the 2 victories in Shepshed (Shepshed is just down the road, for a short time in the 80s it was actually in the Leics NW parliament constituency). I posted at the time of the Shepshed CC election that it is a belweather area, when the Tories are surging they WIN here, the same goes for the Coalville area where last night’s by election was held.
18 - max u - how many people lost their jobs as a result of the hunting legislation? Do we actually know?
I changed my views on hunting a few years ago. Once I would have loved to see it banned; I may still view it as “the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable” - but I don’t support the ban.
20. I was never for the ban, I always supported the third way proposals. But now, I don’t want it repealed. To tbe honest though, the whole thing is & always was an irrelevance.
194/195 (previous thread) Well, I’m not ashamed to admit that for the first time this year, I’m rolling on the floor, laughing, with my legs in the air!
PS to PtP - I noticed that you posting had the inevitable effect of immediately triggering a new thread.
PS to stjohn - Yes, I had indeed seen your reference to the “kipper tie” joke, undoubtedly the finest ever posted on this site and one I fully intend to introduce to new PBers from time to time. I notice you have steered well clear of the “Permatan” debate - as a matter of interest, from which of the five prospective “Deputy Leaders” did you receive a postal communication seeking your support? BTW I didn’t receive any!
15 Certainly, economically successful voters from ethnic minorities are moving into suburbs and middle class rural areas. Probably for much the same reasons that white voters do, such as upward mobility, a better quality of life, less crime, and, ironically enough, but I’ve encountered it, sometimes unhappiness with recent immigration.
16 In some places, though, the BNP vote has proved pretty resilient, and not just a flash in the pan.
19 But this ward was solid for Labour until May 2007.
17. I would think the probability of internal migration taking place in the same ethnic proportions as we see in the population as a whole is pretty low - BME populations are both less middle class and probably less inclined to move. The SW counties have seen a very big net inward migration in recent years but the BME proportion of the their population remains very low indeed.
That doesn’t preclude an increase in BME populations in some ‘non-traditional’ areas of course.
23 - The difference for “white flight” voters is that varied ethnicity and culture becomes the central explanation for the various problems which would encourage suburbanisaton in any case: less crime, good schools and so forth.
18 - That’s a well-considered response, Max U. I was thinking that maybe over time the hunting ban would be like blasphemy law - cheerfully ignored and therefore requiring a degree of unanimous hypocrisy, but I can see that enforcement may step up at some point in the future, and you need to work against such a possibility.
I found it interesting (as someone who has organised many demos in the past) that the Countryside Alliance had one advantage that no demo I ever went on had - horses and dogs. It is usually the mainstay of the police to break protesters’ lines. If you are serious about storming parliament, might I suggest you use your unique assets next time, instead of relying on the boy Ferry and his mates in the construction industry?
I am genuinely even-handed on hunting (I’m urban, think we should leave the countryside alone, never hunted, don’t like animal rights people, seems wasteful to hunt and not eat it, what does fox taste like?), so having offered military tactics to one side, I should offer a token of support to the other.
The main delay in the Hunting Ban was the House of Lords, and the reluctance of the Government to use the Parliament Act (the second incarnation of which was being legally challenged last I heard). Should the gvt find itself in such a position again, it should attach a small tax-cut to the Bill, thus allowing the Speaker of the House to classify the Bill as a money bill (Erskine May is clear that such a classification lies solely with the Speaker, and there is no recourse to of appeal for the HoL). From there, it becomes law within a month, without the support of the Second Chamber, and without reliance on the Parliament Act. Conversely, you could ban hunting as an amendment to the budget.
20- As far as I know very few (perhaps 10 nation-wide). The point I was making that was that if a bunch of people attempt to destroy your livelihoods (in some cases) and your social life (in many more cases) as would have happened if the hunting ban had been succesful you do not forget about it, even if they do not succeed. You are motivated to ensure that that bunch of people are never gain in a position to go after you or anybody else i.e., in the case of labour mps, by working for their opponents in an election.
re 15 you can look at the ethnic breakdown on any constituency, or even post code district or neighbourhood at the National Staistics website.
22 He always does that, PfP. The moment I write anything remotely intelligent or amusing, Mike changes the thread.
birds of a feather.
Migration, in and of itself, very rarely changes the nature of an area. Think how ’student’ areas remain ’student areas’ although most households turn over every year.
On the issue of ghettoisation there is solid research that the BME population has got fractionally less segregated over the last 15 years - but at a glacial pace. Our level of segregatedness (is that a word?) does, however, remain far below that seen in the States.
On the main point I think wishing that the 25% of people who vote BNP are not ‘real’ racists is rather missing the point. The message is that a large minority of British people are prepared to vote largely based on their distaste for black and brown people - see comments a couple of days ago from Sean and others about differential voting for same-party different-race candidates in locals.
It strikes me as a reasonable working assumption that somewhere between 10% and 25% of Britain’s whites really don’t like people who are not white.
The likelihood is that, as BME middle classes become larger in absolute terms, they’ll move along traditional suburban corridors - you already see this in London and the Home Counties. This may defuse tension in some areas, as people get used to a non-white presence - but it’s likely to remain a relatively limited phenomenon.
14. You guessed wrong.. I’ve never voted Labour in my life and probably never will..
The Tories have never been far enough ahead in opinion polls to justify the idea that they are going to win the next election.
Local elections have too low turnouts to draw meaningful conclusions, and anyhow those who do bother to turnout are almost certainly voting on particular local issues, not national.
Parliamentary by-elections however, while imperfect, do seem to show a consistent relationship between Labour and Con and future general election performance. This relationship dates back at least to 1945.
No opposition has ever performed better than the average swing it obtains in by-elections, and on average over the part 40 years it performs 4% worse, +/-1%.
Now, there is still time for a few by-elections to arise, which demonstrate big swings to the Conservatives, and I would never rule that out.
But until such time, the current average swing is about 4.4%, which if repeated in a GE would see the Tories (probably) just nose ahead of Labour by a few seats.
But unless the historical pattern is broken, the Tories will fall back significantly from this position, with Labour reasserting a seat lead…
Ibstock and Heather, for example is (in 2001)
White 6,647
Mixed 26
Asian 24
Black 3
Chinese or other 7
compared with all of North West Leicestershire which is
White 84,458
Mixed 420
Asian 351
Black 79
Chinese or other 195
so it’s not fear of “swamping” (unless there’s been a huge influx since the last census) which is causing them to vote BNP.
re 32 I (and my money) are with Rod in thinking that the Tories can’t possibly win an overall majority under the present electoral system and will be the largest party in a hung parliament next time.
33 - But you are assuming that ppl are voting BNP on colour lines. I suspect a large part of BNP support is generated from the large influx of foreigners in general many of them EU migrants and white.
33 - BNP support is classically highest in all-white areas that bound very mixed areas.
On another site I saw a great description of mankind as “hairless monkeys who are smart, greedy and scared”. I think appreciating that goes a long way to understanding a lot of politics!
Sorry I ment anti-tory rather then pro Labour
So at the moment your comment of
“At the moment we are on track for a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with an outside chance of a slim Labour majority”
is not accurate, also I think you’ll find that historically and I believe mike did a piece on this, around an election support generally swings back to the tories at a GE??
Finally i beleive the opinion polls pre the unpredictable xmas polls were showing conservative leads between 8 & 13% for a sustained period - more then enough for the tories to be the largest party in a hung parliament with a slim chance of an overall majority!
30 It would be rare for vote shares for candidates from the same party, of different races, to vary by as much as 25%.
Quite often, people who dislike another group *in general* have friends or good acquaintances from that group - but rationalise it on the basis that “X isn’t like the rest of them”. I was struck once listening to a programme in which one BNP member said he quite liked the black people he’d met but then went on “but if it’s a choice between no c**ns, or being swamped by them, I’ll go for no c**ns at all.”
35 Yes, I had the same thought, Burdett. I am struck by the hostility to Polish and other East European immigrants who, as far as I can make out are mostly white, young and industrious.
Those of us old enough to be acquainted with the contribution to the Allied Armies in WWII by the peoples of those areas have aditional reason to be embarrassed by hostility to them.
30. The larger the ethnic population becomes, the greater the move toward segregation will likely be. Within the ‘ethnic’ population we are already seeing increased ghettoisation for certain subgroups, as the Bishop of Rochester has recently pointed out.
22. PfP. I think I received campaigning leaflets from most of them. Certainly Hain, Harperson and Johnson. I was struck by the glossy expensive lookinf leaflet that Hain produced. It seemed OTT at the time to me and now we see the expense he incurred through his campaign.
32 you say, with more knowledge than me no doubt, that the Tories wont win an outright majority. how do you explain then GB calling off an election when 10%+ ahead in the polls? He only called off the election because the private polling told him that he would get a vastly reduced majority or even lose. with a 14%+ swing in the polls since then surely a Tory majority is a distinct possibility?
GB is only interested in power and he elected for 3 more years rather than risk a “1997 style” outcome last year. im genuinely confused that you think the Tories cannot win.
Max u and others And with Cameron promising at least to look at restoring hunting to legality, then I suppose that those people for whom it is quite literally THE most important issue, they would be cery likely to become quite motivated next time round, even if just for delivering, chatting to their undecided mates, or some more borderline activity!
SBS You have mentioned that you think Jackie Ballard was not a brilliant MP a couple of times now. I would be interested to hear your reasons.
40 exactly the opposite *should* happen. A sub-population of one is by definition 100% segregated and a sub-population = population is 0% segregated.
However as minority sub-populations increase, whilst the level of segregation may decline, the negative impact on social cohesion increases. As areas get more ‘mixed’ the level of happiness, trust and cohesion declines. We may not like that finding but it is real.
39 - I likewise am embarrassed by the hostility. I guess that if you looked at the age profile of the BNP vote it is probably skewed to the 45+ age group and people who are or started in lower socio-economic groups. The argument that most impacts them is the idea that ‘their’ country is being taken from them. It is a powerful and pernicious motivator.
43 I do recall her giving a radio interview in which she compared Iran’s record on womens’ rights favourably to this country’s.
37 Andy Cooke’s famous and extensive piece over the Christmas break.
45 I don’t think that hostility to Eastern Europeans is all that strong in this country, outside some areas where suddenly, very large numbers have arrived.
Do we know what specifically the BNP campaigned on here?
Funny how its “bad” when the BNP gets votes and “ok” when similar nutters Respect win seats.
Sean I think Jackie gave that interview after her time in Iran, which was after her defeat as an MP. I think her time in Iran actually changed her a bit from how she was as an MP. Several ex-MPs develop, in the sense they can see life from more angles than the constraints of party politics usually allow!
45 BNP supporters tend to have lower than average incomes, without being poor. I think quite a lot of their support comes from younger voters.
In most places, it would be social death for middle class voters to openly support the BNP.
48 Hmm..London, for example, SeanF?
44. This is a definitional point. What I’m referring to is something like the situation in NI where although the religious balance has shifted towards equality over the last forty years or so - i.e the population has become more ‘mixed’ - society has in fact become increasingly segregated. Something like 90% of people live in areas that are 90% or more of one religion, and the number of genuinely ‘mixed’ areas has declined significantly.
48 - I think active hostility is prevalent as you say in areas with a large influx, but there is also the fear that ‘our area is next’.
30 “It strikes me as a reasonable working assumption that somewhere between 10% and 25% of Britain’s whites really don’t like people who are not white.”
Do you have a “reasonable working assumption” of the percentage of Britain’s blacks who “really don’t like people who are not” black?
Or should we keep shtum about that?
49 No don’t know, but your post reminds me that there was a post on the last thread pointing out that the Lib Dems campaigned very hard with anti BNP messages. They were rewarded with a doubled vote share compared with May (in last place both times)
50 Is it, Harry? It isn’t with me.
Please do not purport to speak for us all, when plainly you do not.
Deliberate choice of photo with BJ4BW poster or happy accident?
53 I had more in mind some rural areas, like Lincolnshire, where quite suddenly, large numbers of farm workers have arrived from Eastern Europe.
56 I would have thought racial prejudice is common to all ethnic groups.
56 We certainly shouldn’t keep shtum, Voxpop, but it matters less, because they are not the dominant socio-economic group.
60. social workers used to be taught that only white people can be racist. I wonder if that’s still the case.
60 Noted with thanks, SeanF. I can only speak of London, where I have been struck by the amount of hostility.
61. Surely the degree to which it matters depends on the consequences of these attitudes. Is it worse to have a 90% population that has racist inclinations but does little about it except grumble, or a 10% population which engages in significant levels of racially motivated violence?
43 - there is nothing specific relating to my comments about Ballard. I think she was unwise to run for party leader on a “vote for the woman” type ticket. After losing her seat she went to live in Tehran and wrote some bizarre articles for newspapers on how “liberating” wearing a veil was. If she was as erratic as this as an MP, then she may not have been brilliant as one.
Taunton now has a very good, bright, wise MP. I hope Taunton keeps him.
62. Well, that opinion is still quite widely held in “progressive” circles, although I think it’s less common now.
58. Isn’t funny or isn’t ok ?
64 Good point. Certainly, there are places where ill-feeling between different ethnic minority groups can turn a good deal nastier than just discriminating against each other.
64 What a bizarre hypothesis, Rochford!
Not quite sure what you are trying to say but I should have thought it was self-evident that in a society in which whites command the economy and dominate politics, racism by whites against any group is likely to have more far-reaching consequences than the reverse.
Bit of a ‘water is wet’ argument though.
I was involved strongly in the campaigning for the Ibstock & Heather by-election, with the LD’s.
2- This was a full campaign, we were the first party out of the blocks and had been delivering right up to election day. In May 2007, we only had a paper candidate and did no campaigning in this ward, therefore it is encouraging to see our vote almost double.
We ran a strong anti BNP campaign, delivering the Unite Against Facisim leaflet. Unfortunately this strong message seems to have been ignored and the BNP have had another strong result in an area where I would not expect them to have such a strong vote. The BNP campaigned predominately on anti social behavior, something I believe that has strongly improved already, and on the council housing sell off, which they say they are against, yet on the first council vote, the two councilors abstained rather than vote against.
15. Living in Ashby, contrary to popular belief Ashby is a very nice place to live!
67 It isn’t OK, Harry - not with me, not, I believe, with a lot of people.
71 - did the MP for Ashby-de-la-Zouch used to be ultra-Blair babe Pandora Braithwaite?
70 - The more you mention the BNP as fascist/racist the more people who are contemplating voting for them believe that you are labelling them as fascist/racist and they seem to resent that and their intention hardens.
73 So what’s the solution, James? Pretend they are not fascist/racist?
42. I’d never say the Tories can’t win. There is (probably) a long time to the next election, and anything can yet happen to make a decisive difference either way.
However, we must remember where the Tories start from. They need about 112 net gains for a majority, and about 70 to become the largest single party. Such gains have only been achieved by the opposition in 1997 and 1970 respectively, on both occasions presaged by two of the largest by-election swings in history, coincidentally both in Dudley (29% to Labour in 1994 and 22% to Con in 1968.). More importantly, the average by-election swings in those parliaments were 13.6% to Labour and 12.0% to Con.
Unfortunately, the Tories have so far shown no sign of coming anywhere near those swings. I see no reason why the pattern should have suddenly changed, and the Tories are heading for an “under-the-radar” victory.
I have no idea why Gordon Brown “called off” the supposed election. If anything, the evidence suggests those such as Balls and MPs in the hypermarginals were trying to force his hand. I prefer to restrict my analyses to hard data, and the data is showing at the moment that the Tories just don’t cut it…
70 You’ll learn, Tom, you’ll learn!
The turnout was extremely low sadly and this may have assisted with the BNP vote.
Perhaps Nick Griffin, BNP leader will consider taking a holiday in Austria and whilst there publicly deny that the Holocaust took place.
The ensuing prison sentence will give him the media coverage he sadly lacks.
72 Only in fiction, SBS. In real life, the MP for Ashby was a Mr Ashby! (Technically, North West Leicestershire, but Ashby is the main town.)
75 thanks
73 I think it is reasonable to describe the BNP as a racist party, given that their whole philosopy is based on the importance of race. I don’t know if the term “fascist” means very much in this day and age though. Calling them Nazis is totally counterproductive IMHO.
New poll (SurveyUSA) showing McCain within 3 points of Giuliani - in New York!
The end is near.
69.Well I think it is bizarre for you to imply that subtle race discrimination is worse than racist violence.
74 - My experience is that if you run aggressively the positives of your candidate you usually fair pretty well.
As Tory in this campaign I’ll give my reading of it. We ran a strong positve campaign which did not attack other parties personally. The BNP scored a lot of votes in one village due to a gipsy camp being near it and the residents not being happy about it. The Lib Dems sent out leaflets suggesting it was neck and neck between them and Labour for the seat, and Labour had the MP (who represented the ward on the council for 15 years and still lives there) door knocking and getting his friends out to vote. This kept the BNP out. I believe the BNP took some of our voters as a protest. They sent out a whole load of leaflets attcking everyone with various mistruths and so did the Lib Dems. There’s negative politics for you.
Tricky waters, PtP. Racism can spill over into violence and terrorism, as often by the minority as the majority. cf. N.Ireland, 7/7. Those can have ‘far reaching consequences’.
85 referring to 69.
61: the two tend to feed on each other, rochford, but it’s important to remember the majority in all ethnic groups who dislike violent nutters.
On the topic, I think it’s generally true that voters who’ve not previously had a BNP councillor and who want to do a far-right protest are pretty immune to arguments about how awful they are - somebody once told me he’d have no objection to electing Adolf Hitler to the council, since it would get some bloody attention at last to whatever it was he was on about (not race - vandals, I think). Similarly the split has not yet resonated - the potential BNP electorate doesn’t in general follow poolitics closely. What they do vregister is when the BNP win and then the councillor is useless, as often happens - they then get dumped at thwe next election.
A comment from woody662 on the by-election would be helpful if he’s around, since he canvassed in it. It doesn’t seem to me all that startling - last time the protest vote went UKIP, this time it went BNP and topped up with a few Tories. UKIP members are generally much nicer than BNP members in my experience, but their voter poll clearly has a big overlap.
As for the 3-1 for Obama, that looks to me quite a good price. Nobody is a more fervent Hillary supporter than me, but I think NH was partly a sympathy vote, and not necessarily reproducible. Note a new poll shows Guiliani just 3% ahead of McCain in NY (everyone else nowhere) - that looks like a McCain bandwagon to me and if Guiliani can’t win NY he can’t win anywhere. (Hillary 2-1 ahead in NY.)
Wow, woody - I ask for a comment and you post it before I press enter! Thanks for the assessment. Bit of a coup for nice David Taylor (the MP) given that the trend of local elections in the patch has been against Labour in the last couple of years.
22/29 PfP/PtP etc.
Ha ha.
Just because I’m a cautious gambler, doesn’t make me an idiot, or my comments stupid, or my tips irrelevant.
PfP: You in particular mean it only “half-jokingly”. There is a nasty undertone of snobbery and disdain in your comments.
May I remind you I did exactly what you guys did in NH, and also LOST, it’s just I bet more cautiously, ok?
Maybe you should both stop being so pretentious and desist from patronising the smaller (and more honest) gamblers.
87. It’s surely true that BNP councillors tend to be useless, and the party itself (like so many fringe parties) is fissiparous, so the BNP never quite capitalises on its own potential popularity.
And the potential is big. IIRC something like 40% of the British people agree with BNP policies; they only disavow them when they are told these policies COME from the BNP.
But in a sense the British political Establishment is riding its luck here. We have to rely on the BNP continuing to be useless, and continuing to self-sabotage.
Will this last?
One day a serious, clever, non-skinheady, not-obviously-racist but seriously “nationalist”, anti-immigration party might come along.
They would prosper, I think.
89 Wha??
75 Rod Thanks for triggering a bout of (mild!) nostalgia. Dudley West 1968 was one of my first byelections as a Liberal activist.
92. Nostalgia ain’t what it used to be, apparently.
It was just called Dudley constituency back then…
82 I wasn’t aware I had implied any such thing, Rochford, and it certainly wasn’t the intention.
94 Nostalgia clearly better for those whose memories are failing!!
85 Yes, Baskerville, racism is pretty evil wherever it spills out. I should think it virtually incontestable however thaT when perpetrated by and on behalf of the ruling group, the consequences are likely to be most severe. That surely not such a tricky stretch of water?
88 The BNP reckoned that David Taylor was an outstanding canvasser, on one of their blogs.
90. True, although they’ve remained much more united than the National Front did. 1974 was a pretty good year for the NF, but instead of capitalising on electoral success, they divided into two factions who spent the next 18 months tearing into each other, before the losing faction formed the National Party. The NF again did well from 1976-78, but would have done much better had there not been this faction fight in the interim. After the 1979 disaster, the NF broke up completely.
94. If you read back through the posts it’s pretty clear that is exactly what you are implying. I suggested minority violence might be worse than majority grumbling, and you labelled that view ‘bizarre’ - suggesting you think the opposite is the case.
89 Hey Casino! Don’t take umbrage, mate! We were only teasing - and only at your own prompting.
If you’re not going to take it as a joke, I’m going to stop pulling your leg - and it we’ll both miss out on the fun.
In all seriousness, you know I’ve said before that nobody should bet beyond their comfort zone. Sorry, but the Bet£3.65 joke was too good to miss.
99. Peter:
It was funny to start with, but it’s become a bit boring now.
I don’t want to be a bad sport, but to be “teased” by you guys *every* time I post some considered analysis is a bit tiring.
Sorry… it’s been a long day too. I’m a bit fractious tonight.
98 Sorry, Rochford, but that is not what I meant and my posts do not bear out your interpretation. I wouldn’t quarrel with the view you have now forward, although it doesn’t add up to very much.
It was the hypothetical situation you conjured up which seemed bizarre, and I didn’t really understand its purpose. I still don’t.
100. It’s been a long week!
Have a glass of Shiraz. And chillax.
100 LOL! Ok, CR, I’ll give it rest. And my apologies if I got on your tits. Sometimes my sense of humour gets the better of me.
Hope your evening gets better.
OT. Very sad news to hear of the death of Sir Edmund Hillary, a true hero to us all.
Was therefore interested to hear this story recounted by Mark Steyn..
“And of course, he famously encountered Hillary Rodham Clinton a few years ago, and she told him that her parents had named her Hillary, H-I-double L-A-R-Y after him, which of course caused great amusement to those of us who looked into it and discovered that Hillary had been born, I think it was six years before he conquered Everest”
http://tinyurl.com/2s29h9
Reminds me of Blair and his Jackie Milburn story.
I dont know if this has been commented on in a previous thread but there could be a recount of the Democrat New Hampshire Primary or is the article below the usual Daily Mail spin?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=507558&in_page_id=1811
Has anyone seen a better source. Realclear politics didn’t seem to mention it?
101. Why is it ‘bizarre’ to imagine that minority group might be characterised by a more virulent form of racism than a majority one? Your smug, patronising tone does you little credit.
103. Cheers Peter.
Think I’m going to take SeanTs advice and have a bottle of red and sign off.
Have a good night guys.
Window shopping for value on Paddy Power and whilst the CDU/FDP alliance is 1-4 on, the CDU to govern solo is 14-1. Wulff is very popular, and came pretty close to an overall majority in 2003. Not too likely, as he might keep the FDP even if he wins over 50%, but worth a speculative tenner, methinks.
bbc news very bad for Hain. money from a diamond dealer paid via a defunct think tank etc etc. he will survive given labours disregard for the law but yet another nail in the electoral coffin of GB.
re 75 my own view which is different to Rod’s is that the reason the Tories are probably not going to get a majority next time is that for whatever reason, seat size disparity, differential turnout, anti-Tory tactical voting the fact remains that the hurdle the Tories have to jump is much, much higher. With the LibDems on 20% and Others on 8% then Lab would win an overall majority with about 35.5%. The Tories need 39% just to be the largest party and 41% to win an overall majority.
I’m not sure how many more elections it’ll take for the Tories to realize that they need a sensible electoral system like STV. The Scots’ Tories seem to have got the message but the one-more-heavers still predominate down south. I’m glad that Clegg has realized this in breaking off talks on possible deals with the Tories.
re 81 well in the current climate that probably means that McCain is probably anywhere from 20% behind to 10% in front!
106 Well I can see that it is perfectly possible but the purpose of conjuring up such a hypothetical scenario remains unclear.
Good night CR.
106 - Tone on internet sites interests me - this is one of the politest I have come across, which is one of many reasons that I somment here and not elsewhere. However, it is difficult to glean the subtleties of tone from short, typed posts, which are little better than text messages for conveying tone.
In that spirit, I don;’t think PtP was being smug or patronising in his post. I *can* read it that way, but I can read it a hundred other ways as well. My rule, a result of my own comeuppance for completely overreacting to a perceived slight that never was (sorry Socrates), is to assume the best of a person’s tone, in the safe knowledge that if somebody really does cross a line, third parties will step in and admonish them.
This probably reads badly (patronising, arch, pompous - frequently true, but rarely intended!) - but for that I apologise in advance.
111 LOL! That accurate, eh Chris?!
105. The story that just won’t die…
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/011108Lindorff.shtml
http://www.centredaily.com/business/story/326178.html
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Kucinich+says+he‘ll+ask+for+recount&articleId=b1f935f2-1fea-4689-a0fc-ecc2e32e016d
112. The purpose of it was to counter the lazy assertion you made at 61. that racism among minority groups ‘matters less’. But obviously it’s OK for you to rehearse lame arguments of that sort, but for anyone to put a different view is ‘bizarre’ and worthy only of a patronising dismissal.
115. Thanks Rod
For those backing Giuliani and his feb 5th strategy this poll has to be quite sobering.
http://tinyurl.com/2gewel
It has the NY GOP primary as Guiliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%, Romney 7%, Thompson 6%, Paul 3%.
Although SUSA are not tremendously reliable, and this is only one poll it must be very worrying for Guiliani that he is doing so poorly in his home state. Also the Rasmussen national tracking poll now has him in single figures.
http://tinyurl.com/2u693r
And this is before he loses yet more primaries and caucuses. I just don’t see where his value is now - I’d rate him 4th favorite for the nomination.
118. he has money and name recognition in spades. I wouldn’t rule him out yet.
Is there a betting market on Hain resigning/being fired yet?
118: Clinton edging ahead but by no means regaining a runaway lead. I’d suggest McCain is better valuer as ‘next president’ at 6+ than GOP candidate at 2.5 - if he’s selected, he probably has an even chance of winning.
105: yes, we’ve chewed it around a bit, see 115 for more. Seems to be a bit of a conspiracy theory based on a misunderstanding of the statistics plus a clerical error in one village, bu tRon Paul’s people have been pressing it. Now that Kucinich has paid for a recount I guess that’ll settle it.
118,119. As I’ve said before, I expect Giuliani to stand or fall in Nevada. The polls are all over the place between Rudy and Mitt, so I think the balance of the race will be decided there. Whoever wins will be up against McCain for establishment vote. If Giuliani wins, I think big business would prefer him over Maverick McCain.
116 You may disagree, Rochford, but I do not regard it as a lazy assertion. I think it does matter less, simply because the dominant group has, almost by definition, the power and opportunity to do more damage when it is racist. Other groups may well be equally racist, if not more so, but they simply have less opportunity to indulge it. I should think the criticism of this viewpoint is that it is a truism, rather than lazy assertion.
By the way, it was the hypothesis I found bizarre. The ‘argument’ I had difficulty discerning, but I think I understand what you meant now.
119 “he has money and name recognition in spades.”
Giuliani Staffers Forgo Paychecks
http://tinyurl.com/36te96
By the way, on the hunting isue discussed earlier, it cuts both ways - it’s been very helpful to identify my opponent as having money and volunteers from the Countryside Alliance, wanting to bring back hunting, etc. I made a lot of it in 2005 and have a long list of people who replied that they only voted for me because of that: my animal welfare mailing list is 800 strong. Like abortion, it’s a niche issue which actually changes lifetime votes. I’m only aware of one Labour voter who I lost over the issue. Might well be different in a seat that actually has hunts, I guess.
I’ve campaigned against the BNP and would reach a number of conclusions; none of them hard and fast I’m afraid.
1. They generally perform better in areas with low immigrant populations, near to places with high immigrant populations.
2. They are careful to give people fig leaf excuses for voting for them. The usual approach is to highlight something, usually housing, and promote the idea that there is a shortage of housing and that what there is, should be for ‘local’ people. If we had high unemployment, I assume it would be jobs.
3. Another one is to talk about ‘illegal immigrants’ and ‘asylum seekers’ as a veil for racism.
Their vote comes from all parties, but mostly from three broad categories:
a. Working Class voters who generally vote Labour
b UKIP voters (in the Euros).
c. People who normally don’t vote at all.
I’ve never seen much evidence that they take many votes from the Tories or Lib Dems, except in areas where those parties have taken a substantial numbers of votes from an electorate one would normally expect to vote Labour.
Recent topics:
Clegg and the Tories. This is not particular earth shattering. I think the world knows the Tories will be hard pressed after their first ten Lib Dem targets to advance further. Their real aim is less Lib Dem voters in Lib/Con seats and more Lib Dem voters in Lab/Con seats hoping either for direct switchers or to break down anti-Conservative tactical voting. So this could affect more seats. Lib Dems will of course hope to squeeze the Tory vote similarly in Lib/Lab targets.
By-Elections. Lib Dems from 3rd to win highly likely but only in seats where frankly it is irrelevant who comes 2nd because Labour always win. Take two neighbouring seats Cardiff West (yes I know the Tories won in 83 but it was 83 nuff said)and Cardiff North. Before anyone starts I want nothing to happen to either MP. They are nice people but the seats exemplify my point. In both the Tories are 2nd but there’s a huge difference between a seat the Tories can expect or hope to win like North each time and a seat like West where if you’re not a Labour voter it is irrelevant who you vote for so the Tories being 2nd signifies nothing. Thus far the By-Elections to come up have been in the latter category. Cue Rod Crosby..
On this piece. Where do the BNP stand in Barking. I’m alarmed at their spread into areas like Wales and the Midlands where they’ve never been before. An MP could make them seriously frightening
127 - Apart from infighting, the main factor holding the BNP back is the lack of a charismatic leader. If they find one then we’re in trouble.
126. Where I live, a very safe Tory seat, a number of people vote BNP as the Tory Party is too “soft” on immigration.
127. Havent the boundary commission rather cleverly divided the BNP stronghold of Becontree between 3 constituencies. Barking, Dagenham, and Rainham? (I know I have not got the constituencies right, but the gist is correct).
Because of the boundary review they will struggle to win any seat in east London, but will probably get decent percentages in a few.
113 Nice post, Morus.
Let me help, since I think it’s good from time to time to air views about Site etiquette.
I wasn’t being smug, or patronising, at least not intentionally. I was however being a tad provocative. The reason for this was that I suspected, possibly incorrectly, that the original post was tacitly racist, albeit in a rather contrived and incoherent way. My intention was to tease out the assumption, which seemed to me to go something along the lines of ‘We (whites) might be a bit racist but other groups (Indian and Caribbean for example) can be a lot worse.’ If that’s what was meant, it’s certainly true, but glosses over the important point that racism is likely to be much more dangerous when expressed by the dominant group than when it is expressed between subordinate groups.
I suppose if you are going to be provocative you can’t get too snotty if somebody is provoked into being rude and insulting in return, which is why I ignored the more offensive aspects of Rochford’s post. You are right though. It is generally advisable not to infer a slight and to disregard it, if possible, even if you are sure there has been one. It is definitely advisable to avoid direct insulting anybody.
I try to abide by these ‘rules’, although as many here can attest, I am not always successful.
On April 9th 1976 a youthful untanned Young Liberal leader was acquitted of stealing £490 from a branch of Barclays Bank in October 1975.
Supporters in the public gallery at the Old Bailey in London clapped and cheered as the verdict was announced.
The only evidence presented against Mr Hain, a postgraduate student at Sussex university, was his identification by three schoolboys and a bank cashier.
I don’t think the BNP will amount to much less you get a “doomsday scenario” occuring over the next few decades. It’s possible to imagine that a ocmbination of increasing energy shortages, and the steadily improving performance of India and China, might well pose a serious threat to the living standards of the salariat in most Western nations. A likely result of such a trend would be a fracturing of the right, and a highly protectionist political movement which is likely to appeal to racist overtones.
I do think what many forget when attacking the BNP or when expressing shock at the support they receive in local elections, etc. is that most of the people who vote for them are just ordinary, everyday and otherwise generally non-racist citizens.
I travel regularly between London and West Yorkshire and it is astonishing how any number of town centres in the North are now occupied by a majority of Asians. An example is Dewsbury, medium sized, a slightly down-at-heel market town, with below average housing costs for that area. Fifteen years ago, the Asian population was probably around 20%, whereas today, in the centre, I would estimate this as being around 50%. Nearby Huddersfield is a wealthier town with a current immigrant population of around 20%, but who would bet that this town will not follow Dewsbury’s lead over the next 15 years?
I honestly believe the vast majority of people in this country are not racist, but they do, nevertheless, object to their culture and whole way of life being lost over just half a generation.
I have a close friend who lives in a posh part of Cambridge, who gets very excited in expressing his views against the BNP - but meeting him in Cambridge city centre for dinner as I often do, it is very clear that he, and I would wager a good proportion of the posters on this thread, have absolutely no comprehension of what has happened in towns such as Dewsbury over such a short period of time.
Much of the antagonism and resentment against Asians, in particular, could have been avoided had the mass immigration experienced in many Midlands & Northern towns and cities been spread over a significantly longer period. It has to be said, however, that their cause has not been helped by the bombings in the capital (not fully experienced by people who don’t use the tubes and buses every day) and by seemingly ever increasing Muslim fanaticism within the UK.
Looking forward, the concern has to be is that one is not even allowed to express concern about these aspects, without being verbally abused and doubtless this will be self-evident following what I consider to be this mildly-worded post.
What makes me laugh are the commenters on here who are throwing their hands in the air about the BNP’s ‘extremism’. Allowing uncontrolled and very large levels of immigration without any mandate or real debate (just dare bring the subject up and hear the screams of racist from the far/liberal/loony/left) is the real extreme. In just a few short years London, Birmingham, Leicester, Bradford and Wolverhampton, amongst other cities and towns in England, will have the native British as a minority. I’m living the multicultural ‘dream’ at the moment. What starts as a few immigrants, who you welcome, slowly turns into a majority where it no longer feels like you’re living in England anymore. Living amongst large numbers of Asians and Afrocaribbeans sucks. That’s why I shall be voting BNP in the absence of any other alternative. I’m amazed that any of you thought that immigration at this level would even work. The disintegration of the UK is inevitable.
135. Yeah, but looking on the bright side, it’s not supposed to rain tomorrow
134. Your post is indeed mildly worded and not what i would consider racist.
However it does seem to work on the assumption that the existence of a large asian community causes “culture and whole way of life being lost.” I hear this argument a lot, and have always wondered. How does this actually happen? What is the mechanism that causes immigrants to actually damage culture? From what evidence i’ve seen it seems that a lot of second generation immigrants eventually start abandoning their original culture and becoming anglicized. rather than damaging the british culture.
It’ll take more than someone of a different culture, simply living in the same country as me to stop me from being british.
I had to deal with the BNP up close for a few years. The vasy majority of their votes were otherwise decent, respectable people who felt that the system had failed them. Concerns about immigration were nearly always a cypher for housing and crime. The shortages of the traditional council house for the kids and a decent manual unskilled/semi skilled job for the bread winner of the house send people looking for scape goats.
I’ve always felt the first step in combating the BNP is to acknowledge that many of these concerns are legitimate before saying they are racist thugs.
134 PfP
As you probably know, I was born and brought up in the East End of London, where I now once again reside. You could not therefore say I was oblivious to the changes in the racial composition of the population. Nevertheless I would be much more in accord with the views of your dinner companion, I am sure, than your own.
Why?
I guess I don’t like to think of myself or others in primarily racial terms. Nevertheless I do agree with your concern that people should be able to discuss these matters without invoking abuse. I trust you accept that this post at least has subjeced you to none!
130 The reverse. Becontree is largely united in Barking constituency, which benefits the BNP. I don’t think they’ll win Barking, but I could see them winning 30%+ of the vote.
134 I certainly am not the slightest bit surprised that a fairly large proportion of the population should be prepared to vote BNP. It’s actually a surprise that this country should have taken much longer than continental Europe to develop such a party.
132 Your point being, Barry?
The country is still 91% white. I accept that the post war immigration is atypical in terms of speed, ethnicity, religion and to some extent scale but british history is one of fairly continuious immigration. They always get absorbed in the end as will this lot. I’m not sure what we mean by British culture anyway.
English I absolutely accept but what else. the highest heroin addiction rate in Europe? Highest levels of unsecured debt? teenage pregnancies? lets not forget most Muslim/Hindu families are more socially conservative than the average Brit.
139. I have to say that the right to freedom of speech that covers saying things racist also covers people saying “i think your views are racist” whether they are right or wrong.
However i believe that it doesn’t really help fight the BNP or racism to do so.
138. I read an article a while ago that claimed we could see the rise of the BNP as an exploitation of a situation of shortage. Although we are in a period of long term economic growth there remains a housing shortage, this can be used to create fear and hatred of minority communities. One of the most common complaints is that foreigners get preferential treatment on housing waiting lists. Although i don’t think that is actually true, their is a common perception is that it is.
140. Sean, I bow to your knowledge. I thought Becontree had been carved up. I agree with you though that the BNP will get reasonable percentages here and there, without actually winning seats.
It wouldn’t surprise me if RESPECT hold Bethnal Gre