We’re back to a double digit lead with Ipsos-Mori
January 12th, 2008
But why is this against the trend of other recent surveys?
A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Sun today goes completely against the run of other recent surveys and reports that Cameron’s Tories now have a 10% lead.
The following are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster before Christmas - CON 42(nc): LAB 32(-3): LD 15(+1)
After a period when Populus, YouGov and ICM have all reported Labour deficits of within 5% today’s survey goes very much against the way things seemed to be going. It also comes after a quiet period for UK politics in general and for the Tories in particular. Generally the main opposition party does better when it is making the news.
Given the effort that Brown has put into the New Year with the “re-launch” that cannot be called that this could be quite worrying. This week he has hardly been off our TV screens with one announcement after another which he has made personally rather than leaving it to the responsible minister like Alan Johnson.
My reading is that Ipsos-MORI’s very strict turnout filter might be a factor. The pollster only includes in its headline figures the voting intentions of those who are 100% certain to vote. ICM includes those who rate their certainty from 70% and above while Populus includes those of 50% certainty or more and weights their response in line with the certainty number. YouGov does not have a turnout filter.
One consequence of the Ipsos-MORI approach is that their non-voting intention questions are based on the responses of a different and broader group of people than the voting intention ones. So we have the apparently contradictory ratings of Brown doing better on “most capable PM” and “best in crisis” in a poll that sees his party 10% behind.
Ipsos-MORI need to get their act together on this one. If the views of the less than the “100% certains to vote” are not deemed important enough to include in the headline figures then the same should apply to other findings. At least we ought to be shown the comparative data.
So good news for the Tories and bad news for Labour. As we always say let’s see what the next poll reports - with a bit of luck there might be something new in the Sunday papers.
UPDATE Some observations from Ipsos-MORI: I’ve had the following email from the firm’s Julia Clark:
Just a little reminder to watch the share rather than the lead. As you know, with a margin of error of +/-3%, our poll today for the Sun is not as far out from the recent Populus poll (and other recent polls) as you imply in your commentary. We have shown an increase in Tory share (Populus was at 37% and our poll shows the Tories on 42%), but the Labour share (33% to our 32%) does not show a notable change for Labour over the last week.
I believe that issues like Peter Hain’s donation scandal could well have given the Tories a boost, as they represent a continuation on from the scandals that rocked Labour before Christmas. Labour continues to flounder a bit, and remain just above their ‘core’ support level of 30%. My point here is that Labour support is unlikely to drop BELOW this figure because it represents the core of Labour voters — however ‘floating’ and otherwise unaffiliated voters who are unhappy with the problems that Labour party is having are more likely to allocate their vote to the Tories or LibDems — and it looks as though they have chosen the Tories.
FURTHER UPDATE: The fieldwork for the poll was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday and MORI have taken on board my point about the non-voting questions and will provide comparative data on their site on Monday.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
You’ve linked to the ‘Sunsays’ page. The article page link is:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article681114.ece
re 1. Thanks - I’ve changed the link.
Where has my message gone? Two hours ago I wrote something about margin of error and stuff. I wonder when we will get opinion polls about the GLA and Mayoral election?
re 3. It got automatically blocked because in some way it fell foul of the spam filter. Before we had this in place we were getting more than 1000 items a day which was clogging up the server and almost impossible for me to manage.
There was a poll on the Mayoral election from YouGov last week - click here
“This week Brown has hardly been off our TV screens with one announcement after another which he has made personally”
Tory 10% lead.
Enough said.
I agree with Marquee Mark: it seems likely that every time Brown shows his face in public the Labour numbers will dip. This phenomenon was clear in Scotland during the Blair period, where every time the PM ventured north of the border the Scottish National Party got a boost. Indeed, if McConnell had managed to keep Blair out of the country during last spring’s general election then the Lib-Labs might still be in government in Edinburgh.
Brown is a boon for the Tories, and Cameron is a boon for the SNP.
Last Thread 317 John Loony
Is it Hungarian? Or Estonian?
I wonder what Peter Hitchens will be writing in his next column… His last post when the lower 5% poll came out was almost armageddon for David Cameron!!
Incidentally, does anyone have a take on which pollster has been more accurate over the last 10 yrs??
Err what do you mean more accurate? All polls are 100% correct, as polls, of the particular 1000 or so people they poll. Whether those 1000 people are exactly representative of the the population as a whole, or likely voters on that particular day, we can never know.
Clearly shows that Hain is hurting the Government at the moment! Surprised to see this, although if these polls are similar to the New Hampshire ones, Labour could be in the lead for all we know…
10 What I mean is in terms of their correlation to actual outcomes. They might all be 100 % accurate in terms of the information given, but not in terms of what happened on the actual polling day.
O/T from todays FT - I know things were bad but sixth!
“The size of the British economy has slipped below that of France for the first time since 1999 thanks to the slide in the value of the pound.
Sterling’s rapid fall to 11-year lows against European currencies has also pushed Britain into sixth place in the world.”
MT Fan - But the poll was accurate. People changed their minds when the actual election happened (see Clinton/Obama in NH)
13 Ok Which pollster has been closest to actual outcomes?
13. On a PPP basis, output in this country is well above that of France. In the same way as the report which showed our income per head was higher than the USA was certainly not true on a PPP basis.
14. Last time, NOP.
14 That raises the difficult question of whether polls are in the business of “predicting electoral outcomes” often some way down the track, or whether, as the pollsters will tell you, they are taking “a snapshot of opinion” at any particular time. See, your question does not have an easy answer!
Mike’s assessment looks right to me. I talk to more than usual constituents who are in the ‘I’ll probably support you when it comes to it but…” camp, and I’m sure they wouldn’t be chirping “10 out of 10 certain!” to MORI. The core Labour voter is in quite decent shape, which is why we’re rarely dropping under 30% as many here predicted, but the floating vote that is needed to win is…floating. Flirting with Tories or LibDem, or saying Labour but with low certainty to vote. Comparing YouGov results (no turnout filter) and MORI results (100% centainty filter) is a good way to measure this factor.
..and what happened to NOP after their achievement - the firm was ditched by the Indy
Mori do provide other, non-turnout weighted, figures which can be good for determining trends.
20 It is interesting how some posters perceive one polling organisation more favourable to one party than another, something I find hard to get my head round. Is there any actual “evidence” for this?
re 21. The general rule is that the more a pollster produces figures that are in line with your allegiance the better that pollster is.
By the way, every one of the Guardian’s articles today on the US election is illuminating in a different way (no particular spin, just good stuff - and I’m not in general a big Guardian fan):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
22 I think you must be right there Mike ! I think I fall into that category myself!
Mike’s assessment looks to be right to me. The filter Mori uses must produce ‘false’ results if the aim is to be predictive. I think that they’ve stated that this isn’t their aim, but to provide a snapshot of current opinion. Even so, I’m not sure if the filter can even do that with any accuracy. I should have thought the effect will be to exaggerate leads for both parties as the less popular loses not only support but also the average commitment level from the remaining supporters drops. It seems very harsh to knock off all but the 100%ers.
One point the other way: opinion polls two weeks either side of Christmas aren’t worth very much at all. We’re now emerging from that period with some proper politics hitting the news radar again. It could be that the false picture was that given during the recess rather than now.
Interesting use of “we’re” Mike. Are you a Tory now post Clegg? Or is it just your subconcious? Lets have a Labour article.
7 - certainly not Estonian, which is pretty much like Finnish. Hungarian really is pretty different, and there is now a school of thought that Ugric languages (like Hungarian) are not related to Finnic ones at all.
26 Eh??
26. We the readers? We the punters? We the obsessive poll-watchers?
27 Jonathan - I think you may a little over sensitive. Are you in fact suggesting that Mike’s headline should have read:
They’re back to a double digit lead with Ipsos-Mori
Memo to the Prime Minister: maybe a series of measures seeming to attack your own supporters is not so clever after all.
Fieldwork 9-10 January so Peter Hain’s exposure as a, well, let’s say careless bookkeeper was current, reinforcing the “one rule for them …” appearance of our rulers.
Just mischief making. You can read that headline two ways and in the Brown-Clegg era Mike may be more at home as a Tory.
A Lbour artickle might be a good idea.
What about
‘Is Hain for the Chop?’
or
‘What happened to those record tax receipts now we are in a downturn?’
or
‘Chancers blame everything on American mortgage owners will the country buy it?’
or
‘Gordon’s weird gurning looks on the front bench, does it turn voters off?’
32. Even if Mike has made the transition from employee to business owner in the past few weeks, I still think it’s a bit much to accuse him of being a Tory just yet! It’s not an accusation that goes down well in LD circles, you know …
Yokel - saving the best for last - the post budget debate.
“Labour cuts income tax - for the better off. Tax for the lower paid doubled from 10% to 20%.”
Once the first chicken returns to roost, the rest inexorably follow.
Sorry but I cannot believe a Liberal Democrat activist would move to the Tories - not even to Cameron’s Conservatives. Seriously I would guess activists if forced to choose between Labour and Conservative would split 80% labour 20% Conservative. The Lib Dem voters on the other hand - 60% Labour?
Any markets open yet on the New Hampshire recounts? (Besides those run by cats in the Midlands.)
The Republican recount is at the behest of Albert Howard who, as a Black candidate, has been shamefully excluded from media coverage, even on here.
http://alberthoward.org/
Polls at this time of year, are always a little dubious, people aren’t at all interested in much other than recovering from Xmas/New Year, will be about March before they start to focus.
I’ve always thought the voting probability filter very supect, those who say they will, may not, those who say they won’t maybe they will, how can you honestly tell?
Mori-Ipsos have said their polls are snapshots - so using of the whole sample for the questions on national perceptions of Brown/Cameron/Clegg, the performance is right if you want to know what the citizenship is thinking (rather than just those who will vote). Mori are reporting correctly that overall Brown is viewed as slightly better as a PM /putative PM than Cameron.
On voting intention though it is right that only those who intend to vote are considered because the question there is “if an election was held tomorrow” so thats what we want to know. 100% seems quite a strict filter but perhaps anything but an absolute “yes” shows the respondee is probably unlikely to vote. Would be good to see for the qualitative questions what the difference is - looking at past polls there are more Labour supporters in the unlikely to vote category so likely that among those intending to vote Brown does not hold leads or much smaller leads on qualitative questions.
News International doesn’t yet seem to have decided on Brown v Cameron. Pascoe-Brown puts a pro-Brown spin in his report compared to the anti-Brown flavour in the Times on the Populus results - Times would have reported Brown’s leads crashing. Mr Pascoe-Brown makes it sound like they are recovering by directly comparing Ipsos-Mori with Populus on leadership “He overturned Mr Cameron’s four per cent lead on leadership ability in a poll on Tuesday”. He also seems to have discussed poll with the Labour spin doctors “Mr Brown’s aides pointed out things were far worse for him a month ago”.
The Daily Mash comments on Peter Hain’s errrr problems.
To maintain impartiality the, ‘Unemployed to be forced to pick cotton says Tories’ is also very funny.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/
re 32. I would be happy to become a Tory if the party just made a few changes in their policy portfolio:-
*Abolish all immigration controls except for felons
* Abolish all laws that interfere with an adult of sound mind’s ability to control his-her own biochemistry
* Declare that the support for the Iraq invasion was wrong
* Get real on Europe
41 — a sound mind may become unsound after the first biochemical intervention.
Ted. I was struck by the way The Sun has chosen to report this poll. A favourable headline for Brown when clearly it is a bad poll for him and Labour.
I know newspapers spin results to suit their own narrative so it’s confusing that The Times and The Sun are making different interpretations. I think some of the time it’s probably simply down to ignorance on the part of the reporters in not being able to interpret the figures as accurately as a first year PB student.
I’m increasingly struck by the number of basic errors the news media make in interpreting polls.
What we’re seeing in the polls at the moment are two variables and one constant.
Variable 1;
Conservative percentage, which seems to be between 37-43%
Varaible 2
Lib Dem percentage, which seems to be fluctuating wildely from low to high teens.
And the constant;
The Labour percentage, which seems to now be stuck between 30-33%. Which indicates to me, that whatever happens with the Tories and Liberals, Labour under Brown are now flatlining at their core vote. This will prove extremely difficult for Labour/Brown to turn around.
That is a very short list, Mike. How badly does Cameron want to recruit you? I fear he may be tempted…..
And then all our Tory friends have to decamp to UKIP and BNP.
Isn’t the editor of The Sun associated closely to Labour (her husband is also a staunch Labour supporter)
My guess is The Sun will continue to hedge its bets up until an election campain, when Murdoch will tell them to come out for Cameron….
Re 37 On the opening page of his website Albert Howard says “The Angel of the Lord told me in January of 1992that Hillary Rodham Clinton and I would meetand be running against each otherand that she would lose”.
The bloke is clearly a nutter.
45. That’s a wild assumption that tory voters would go for the BNP or UKIP, which I for one would not. Also seeing that the BNP are just as popular in labour areas as tory, I’d say it’s just as likely people are going to leave labour to vote for them.
47 — eccentric, certainly.
So now we have a survey that is after the holiday period. But Gordon Pascoe-Brown chooses to select other findings to run a pro-Brown article in the Sun for his fellow Scot. Surprised? Bears antics in woods come to mind when looking at anything Pascoe-Brown writes about the PM.
It is the next few surveys that will reveal whether the early Jan polls were showing a narrowing of the gap or were just holiday blips.
I also agree with Mike S on the Mori criteria for factors that they should be on the same basis. Yet again we can rely on people writing here for objective explanations of polls to a far higher degree than journalists writing in the MSM.
18:”I’ll probably support you when it comes to it” That brings back many a happy memory from the Mayor Govt. If I had a £ for every time I heard that etc. Even these days many people are still polite to an MP.
The poll Conservative lead is about to increase. I think Peter Hain is will resign quite soon.
41. Here is the Broxtowe anti-cat lovers’s party manifesto.
* Abolish all immigration controls except for felines
* Abolish all laws that limit an adult of sound mine’s ability to control his/her own tabby
* Declare that support for the Tiger Economy was wrong
* Get real on Dogs
17. Latest World Bank estimates have UK GDP per capita at PPP about 6% higher than France, and about 25% lower than the US.
But be careful - PPP estimates are subject to significant revisions. The latest WBank data also show big downward revisions to their estimates for Chinese and Indian PPP GDP. Given the large margin for error, it wouldn’t be wise to read much into a 6% difference.
Serra @ 52 — but after Hain? What about the unsackable Harman? And all the rest?
Mike S you have demonstrated the internal inconsistency of the metropolitan LibDems’ philosophy.
You want to have uncontrolled immigration but integrate into a political entity which believes in tight and detailed central control of everything - whether it moves or not.
The anti-EU LibDem voters in the south west seem to be more consistent in their approach.
Dreadful and surprisingly bad poll for Labour (but also pretty poor for the Lib Dems). Might the relaunch have been part of the problem - showing a paucity of new Labour ideas and lack of coherence? The Tories also made a couple of fairly effective policy thrusts. Nevertheless, assuming we can take this poll at face value, it is surprising. Even taking Mr Smithson’s argument into account, Labour’s rating has fallen since the last poll by Ipsos-MORI. Something more must be at work - even if that something is just statistical noise.
Good to see that my Apocalyptic Scenario is back in rude health. I was getting worried
Whilst it’s true that polls are snapshots, not forecasts, one factor they cannot allow for is the relative strength of the parties’ GOTV operations. This will heavily favour the Tories because
- unlike any other Party, they will have more money than they can spend at the next election;
- they are the only Party which actually has an activist base nationwide.
Let us also not forget that Labour only polled 36% or so last time - this was a “best of a bad bunch” administration from the first day of term.
“Ipsos-MORI need to get their act together on this one. If the views of the less than the “100% certains to vote” are not deemed important enough to include in the headline figures then the same should apply to other findings.” Mike S
Or the other way around (i.e. include the views of the less than 10s - weighted - in the vote intention question) as the figures (along with those from other pollsters) would indicate that the Cons are more motivated but the Labs are still out there.
antifrank @ 57 — the relaunch is part of the problem largely because it consists of a series of attacks on Labour supporters, and on things people like.
The rest of the problem is Hain and people being skint after Christmas.
A paucity of New Labour ideas is never a problem.
54 “Latest World Bank estimates have UK GDP per capita at PPP about 6% higher than France, and about 25% lower than the US”
GDP per capita includes spending down the shops with borrowed money and credit cards aswell as genuinely productive activity, so it’s no wonder spendaholic Britain is above France. Our growing trade gap and growing debt, repossession, and bankruptcy figures give a clearer indication of the true story.
As one seasoned expert always advises us “look at the direction of the poll”. The direction is a 3 point (10%) fall in the Labour support compared to 7th December.
Conservatives stick in the low 40s,
Labour drop 3 to 32
LDs improve by a little to 15.
Consequently the Conservative lead has grown from 7 to 10.
Also the biggest ever Mori lead for the Conservatives over Brown’s Labour party. How come Pascoe-Brown did not notice that?
Hitting 42 again with Mori places the Conservatives one point above the highest they ever reached Vs Blair.
Conclusions, Labour’s direction of travel is down, Conservatives are holding in low 40s, LDs have a small uplift with the Clegg honeymoon.
55 Quite a damning phrase in the Independents editorial, after accepting Hain’s defence that it was an oversight rather than sleaze, “Everything else we have learnt suggests incompetence and a limited grasp of reality. Is this really someone who should be a cabinet minister, let alone the one ultimately responsible for the nation’s work and pensions?”
The other question is why anyone would donate to an already lost cause? The majority of the money was used to pay off debts after the event and Peter Hain personally trawled around for it. We are asked to believe people donated to a think tank which aimed, presumably, to actively promote progressive policies but were happy to have their money instead used as a piggy bank to pay off debts - so what social benefit have the donors got for their donations?. Does the think tank still have any assets? is it employing anyone or supporting anything other than a particular politician in a failed bid for a powerless office? Does Mr Hain believe, and his supporters believe, that he is anything other than on his way out; do they dream he will be kingmaker after Gordon Brown, that Peter Hain is an important powerbroker? “Limited grasp of reality” sums it up.
Re Hain, he starts out being accused of “robbing a bank” and finishes up being accused of “robbing an institution”.
At least the allegations are consistent.
re 59. Agreed Paul. They ought to go one way or the other but trying to run two systems for presenting results just throws up contradictions - like in the Sun this morning.
63. Also is it fair for one Deputy Leader candidate to spend disproportionately far more than the other candidates on his election campaign and then, after the event was over, draw on party “funds” that were never intended for this purpose, to pay off his debts?
Now that’s not fair and appears arrogant. Looks like hubris to me.
43 stjohn “I’m increasingly struck by the number of basic errors the news media make in interpreting polls.”
Which is why I come on here and Anthony Wells, to actually read some balanced points about the polls.
The MSM seem to think that their job is to spin the polls stats into political points that meet their own prejudices and are too lazy to actually put the findings into a context.
67. HF. As I said a first year PB student could do better. I am now in my third year, I think. Hoping to graduate in the summer. BPB. Bachelor of Political Betting. Looking forward to the degree ceremony.
Good thing is that the course is self funding.
59,65 — no, Mori have it about right, though you could argue whether the filter should be 100%, 90% or lower. As Ted says @ 39, non-voters have legitimate views on all sorts of things but it is right to exclude them from the voting prediction question.
58 Innocent Abroad “one factor they cannot allow for is the relative strength of the parties’ GOTV operations. This will heavily favour the Tories…”
Very true about GOTV strength. All indications are that compared to 2005 the Conservatives will have an even bigger advantage in this over Labour and LDs. % of all councillors is up, % of all members is up and morale (compared to Labour) is up.
Indications are that the Conservatives will have a 4:1 advantage (Vs either L or LD) in manpower compared to a 2.5:1 advantage in 2005. The LDs may also have a small manpower advantage over Labour because of the more rapid decline in Labour.
63
Apparently the ‘think tank’ only exists on paper,has never issued any publications or held any meetings and uses the address of a solicitor’s office.
On your earlier point Hain has a departmental budget of around £130 billion and yet is incapable of controlling a campaign budget of £180,000 from a handful of people.
68. I would just like to add that this student has thoroughly enjoyed spending three years in the PUB. (Political University of Betting).
63 I think Hain is a goner in the next reshuffle probably after the Locals. His fall is only postponed. His legions of enemies in the Welsh Labour Party will be loving it
58 What scenario you mean. Like LDs and tories both advancing against Labour in the General Election
So the fightback begins!
My guess is if the LDs didn’t exist quite a few of us would go Green (or invent the LibDems of course).
Hain to release a statement shortly according to BBC.
72 O/T but I was enjoying the “education of a Pb.Com Newcomer” in the postings between PtP/PfP and Casino Royale - unfortunate the Casino was tender to the joshing from the graduates and equaly that the graduats went a little hard on him. Hope that the lessons resume.
63 “Everything else we have learnt suggests incompetence and a limited grasp of reality. Is this really someone who should be a cabinet minister, let alone the one ultimately responsible for the nation’s work and pensions?”
And this is said of a man in whom the Prime Minister has “full confidence”. I would suggest Gordon is in a rather tiny subset of the population of this country who sign up to this view (probably just him and Mr Hain).
This is bad politics. Gordon needs to start ruthlessly cutting out those people who are sabotaging his premiership. He doesn’t need a relaunch - he needs a ferocious Night of the Long Knives. He has a problem. His government is the weakest in living memory. His initial appointments haven’t worked. Address it; get some new talent into Government as a priority. Find them - or else call an election. Britain is being very poorly served at the moment.
77 - Resignation anyone? Would be a bit strange on a Saturday.
80. No, but possibly he’s been tipped off about something that would feature in the Sunday press and is trying to pre-empt it.
Hain is going at some point; Gordon should make some capital out of it by firing him. If Hain just resigns, it is a lost opportunity for Gordon. Surely the party would support him if he did?
82 - I think a sacking would be cathartic, it would probably not be as damaging as what appears to be the playbook which is cling on until the press come out unanimously against your man.
[70] Indeed - and I was going to ask Anthony Wells on his site about this, but it seems to be down at the moment - you could even, on the back of this, make a case for regarding an 80-90% likelihood to vote Tory as equivalent to a 100% likelihood to vote for anyone else so that if anything the polls may be underestimating the Tory lead.
O/T I just bought a copy of my local paper for 40p as I was attracted by the headline:
http://www.getwokingham.co.uk/news/2019/2019915/barack_obamas_night_on_the_wokingham_town
Upon reading the article I was disappointed to find out that Obama has not taken time out from his busy presidential campaign to see the sights of Wokingham. I discovered he visited our charming little town about 10 years ago when a local man married his half sister who he has since divorced.
I will be writing to the editor to demand a refund!
If Hain isn’t gone by Wednesday, PMQT will be worth listening to.
As a point of interest, whenever Blair was away, Prescott stood in; who is the designated fall guy for Brown? What odds that Macavity will go missing next week? (Norovirus would be a good alibi)
82. The thing for GB to watch out for is the Major syndrome of defending ministers and then letting them going when the pressure gets too much. It’s a fine call. Personally I was a little surprised that Brown put him in his Cabinet, but now he’s here he will stick it out. I actually think he’s done quite well and is one of the few ministers that has been able to noticeably challenge the Conservatives on their proposals. Brown can’t afford to let him go. But then again, that’s what I thought about Mandelson the second time.
78 We caught him on a bad day, Ted. Normally I’m sure he would have taken the good-natured teasing in the spirit it was meant, so it was a little unfortunate. That can so easily happen with postings. What you you intend as a bit of fun gets taken the wrong way. I’ve always enjoyed taking the mickey out of StJohn, SeanT, StJohn and one or two others, safe in the knowledge that they know me well enough not to take it seriously. Others have though on occasion jumped to their defense and left me feeling embarrassed.
Shows how careful you have to be. My sense of humour sometimes gets the better of me and my judgement isn’t always the best. So far though, I’ve got off lightly.
“But why is this against the trend of other recent surveys?”
First poll outside the holiday period. The “trend” over the Christmas period is pretty worthless as far as analysis goes - we’ll see what happens from here on in.
83 Brown could say that “in the light of additional information which has come to light”, Hain’s conduct “has fallen short of the standards expected of a member of my Government.” That would put the fear of God into most of the rest of his Cabinet too…pull your socks up, or you are next! As a patriot first and a Tory second, I would approve of him taking that position.
87 That should have been “…taking the mickey out of StJohn, SeanT, *Yokel* and one or two others”.
I better go do something else.
79 Problem for Gordon is anything less than “full confidence” is basically no confidence, which would be “resign now Peter”.
I imagine that many like me have fond thoughts of Peter Hain because of his efforts in the anti apartheid movement. Last night I saw the smug Chris Grayling in his capacity as self elected Witchfinder General and I couldn’t help but wonder what he ever done of similar value in his life? I’m sure there are many who had the same thought. Some Tories just can’t help themselves.
I don’t know how close Kevin Maguire is to the Brown inner circle, but the last couple of days he’s been writing blog articles really critical of Hain, which surprised me a little.
http://maguire.mirror.co.uk/
87. “I’ve always ejoyed taking the mickey out of StJohn, SeanT, StJohn and one or two others”. I seem to be the main focus for your mickey taking PtP.
90 Thought it was meant i.e. “taking the mickey out of StJohn, SeanT, StJohn, Yokel, StJohn, Casino, StJean etc” as StJohn seems to suffer more than the rest
92. True, but Newsnight included the revelation that one of Hain’s donors was also a donor and supporter of the pro-apartheid National Party. That’s what upset me the most - his campaign team was clearly in administrative disarray, but surely there should have been checks on the background of donors? As well as being incredibly distateful, if that had come out during the contest it would have finished him.
Am I being naive - do must people just take the money for stuff like this without checking their history?
94 - *Snap*
96-Why are you surprised, the Labour Party take money from all sorts of dubius backgrounds. Actually, they also take as MPs people from dubious backgrounds. I expect the Tories and LDs are the same, but we are talking about Hain here…
96 Reportedly the donors were turned down earlier - possibly because of such checks - but debts of £100k must have been a weight on Hain’s mind, register of interests doesn’t show great assets. That’s where the concern around the think tank arises, it looks bad.
If it is a resignation will Gordon take opportunity to get rid of the SoS’s for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales and put those offices under Straw?
92 I’m sure all those people facing prosecution for incorrect submissions to DWP feel the same way about Hain. No Ifs No Buts as the advert says!
92-Or perhaps how many Labourites were cheering on the Khmer Rouge in that glorious spring of 1975? Either what you did 30 years ago matters or it doesn’t.
98. What do you mean Labour takes MPs from dubious backgrounds? Do you mean Shaun Woodwood and Quentin Davies?
What springs to my mind is what a ridiculous waste of money in a complete non contest.
I like Hain, but he just looks a joke. Pity.
The present cabinet must surely be the weakest in history. Brown has lost his authority internationally, and at home. He has not the skills to pull himself back. He cannot outdo Cameron in politics, and delivery wise Labour has lost all credibility for competence.
At work people laugh now when discussing government policies. These are senior people in health and the local authority. The tide has turned completely against NuLab, and I doubt there is little anyone can do about it.
Also reports on BBC that Treasury has selected someone to run Northern Rock - looks like nationalisation then.
103 - No the ‘Who, who’ ministry was probably the weakest in history.
104 is it peter hain?
Has anybody seen this on Dizzy?
http://dizzythinks.net/2008/01/silence-on-andrew-brown-explained.html
Apparently Gord’s brother is head of PR at EDF - the company that’s hoping to move in big following the nuclear power station decision.
Funny that.
103. I don’t think it’s a bad Cabinet overall and broadly I think Brown has placed people in good positions. He was certainly right to bring back Denham and I’m glad David Miliband is Foreign Secretary too. Johnson is the right man to be at Health too. Jacqui Smith is pretty refreshing and Blears is in the right department (if you have to have her in the cabinet). Ed Balls can be political maniac but has made a very good start at Children Schools and Families. The tide may turn against Labour, but I don’t think it’s necessarily down to Brown’s appointments.
Maggie Thatcher:
Please see the report on our website about ‘what we do and how we do it’ – it contains some useful information about the reliability and accuracy of the pollsters: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/political/methodology.pdf
Sean Fear:
I would gently point out that the (very accurate!) exit poll at the 2005 General Election was conducted jointly by MORI (now Ipsos MORI) and NOP.
In response to Mike’s comment about ‘certainty to vote’ for the capable PM figures – the filter is designed solely to make our voting figures more representative of the voting population of the country, which is why we do not apply it to the other questions in a poll.
Also – just a quick note to confirm that the poll will be up on our website very soon, and the detailed data tables will follow on Monday.
Cheers,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI
109. Thanks for posting this.
And to follow up on my above comment (109) — I will happily include the filtered (on ‘certain to vote’) capable PM figures in the tables that go up on Monday.
Cheers,
Julia
81 Surely, were the Sundays to have something new on Hain, that would be his tipping point - Good Night Vienna, Arrivederci Roma.
James at 105- what was the “who, who” ministry?
O/T- I was listening to Clegg on 5 live. The words could have been spoken by Cameron, Brown, Blair, Cable. We are living in an era of politics without any kind of distinctive ideology.
ID cards is the policy that divides parties. How bleeding exciting, not! And I bet if the Tories were in power they would be chomping at the bit to introduce the buggers. And the LD’s too, but that of course is an impossibility naturally.
I was at a council meeting recently and even the bloody Greens here sounded like NULab clones. Sames words, same jargon, same language.
Politics UK is about as exciting as watching Doncaster vs Rochdale on a dreary, drizzly January evening match, and probably less relevant now.
That is why this site is so obsessed with the USA. It is just so much more interesting.
94 Sorry StJohn, weird typo, as explained at 90.
I will now refrain from posting for the rest of the day.
Page Two The FT noted that Brown hasn’t managed to comply with the 15% levy from donations
Hain just makes the Govt look serially incompetent. Quite why Brown thinks it best to hang onto such a person is a mystery but he chooses to back an incompetent minister at a time when there are few other big stories around this weekend.
Keeping track of election expenses is a task faced by thousands of people each year. Hain had as many entries as they have to cope with, there were just some extra zeros involved.
Hain’s best excuse seems to be that “I chose incompetent people to handle it”.
108 HenryG I disagree, this Govt is full of inadequate Ministers caused by the attrition of 3 terms, Brown’s decapitation activities and the selection policies for their MPs.
I have added an update from MORI to the main article:-
UPDATE Some observations from Ipsos-MORI: I’ve had the following email from the firm’s Julia Clark:
Hain won’t like Page 2 of the FT, which also noted that the Forum appears to have no staff, no scholars, no activiy.
No ifs no buts, no clarity…
92. “I imagine that many like me have fond thoughts of Peter Hain because of his efforts in the anti apartheid movement. Last night I saw the smug Chris Grayling in his capacity as self elected Witchfinder General and I couldn’t help but wonder what he ever done of similar value in his life? I’m sure there are many who had the same thought. Some Tories just can’t help themselves.”
Of course, Labour never “prosecuted” the Tories in the 90’s did they? We all remember how Robin Cook used to take the Major government apart over their many dodgy dealings….
109/111 Helpful posts from Julia Clark of Ipsos MORI and further kudos for Mike in demonstrating just how widely PB.com is read.
Guido reckons that Gordon hasn’t paid the 15% of the money spent on his leadership “campaign” as he should have under Labour party rules, to Labour party funds. As he hasn’t paid it will he now have to raise another £30,000 (plus 15% of the additional £30,000!)
why did you not publish the new pol in Scotland that showed Labour ahead of the SNP - the first poll that was NOT paid for by the SNP!
117. Its interesting to see MORI confirming are at around their core support and have been for quite a few polls now. Its something I’ve been pointing out for some time. This is the giggest concern now for Labour, IMO. As we saw from the Tories from 97-05, once you slump down to your core vote, it can be a nightmare to get back beyond your core support again. I suspect they won’t be able to do it with Brown.
HenryG @ 108 re good Cabinet. Ed Balls has spun increased training as raising the school leaving age which terrifies the non-academic (and their families) and the academic who do not want their children’s chances stuffed up by people who would rather not be there.
Smith by staging police pay to save tuppence ha’penny shows Labour as a swaggering bully: arbitrary and unfair.
Miliband antagonises the Saudis by swerving their king and has said nothing useful about Pakistan.
Johnson at Health pointlessly attacks GPs and hospitals which most people are reasonably happy with, and scares them that they might not be treated if they are too fat.
I could rant on at length but you get the picture. The Cabinet is deeply unimpressive.
117. Its interesting to see MORI confirming Labour are at around their core support and have been for quite a few polls now. Its something I’ve been pointing out for some time. This is the biggest concern now for Labour, IMO. As we saw from the Tories from 97-05, once you slump down to your core vote, it can be a nightmare to get back beyond your core support again. I suspect they won’t be able to do it with Brown.
*reposted due to spelling*
121. Nobody in the party cares what he thinks.
I am a little puzzled as to why Julia Clark of Ipsos MORI thinks that at 32 Labour are near the bottom of their core support when they achieved circa 26 in the locals.
Surely that is nearer the bottom of their core support?
BBC24 reporting Hain to make statement at about 1pm
A couple of points - a bit more of Cameron and a bit more of Brown equals a bigger tory lead, the playbook suggests that Cameron will keep this up for a few weeks and then sit back and let Gordon do his worst until the local elections machine cranks up.
Secondly, as tyson suggests, the Clegg effect is dampened because he is indistinguishable. So he suggests that charities and so on need to be running public services more? Good idea, unfortunately Cameron got there first and a) you look weak if you lead by piggy backing others’ policies and b) it suggests to the electorate that others are worth voting for as much as you. It was bad enough labour doing it with IHT but, as the ruling party, they at least have leverage over implementation. Those 300 or so people whose votes switched would have given a lib dem leader who was different have a lot to answer for.
Anyway, back to American election surfing for me…..
Julia Clark Thank you for responding.
Your publishing like for like figures is very welcome. If the voting intention and ‘personal performance’ figures are both on the same basis then the cross references will be very useful. If you then publish the same figures for all respondents it will be even more informative as whatever the rights and wrongs of using the 100% intention filter the comparisons will provide a better basis for assessment.
HF (127):
We tend to use the 83 election as a good indicator of ‘core’ (post-war) Labour support. As we are only talking about national voting figures, we use the General Elections as indicators rather than local elections.
Cheers,
Julia
GIN the 30-32 figure may be Labour core support but may not be Labour core vote as turnout in a real election could well be reduced by any campaign and lack of energy to vote pro-actively rather than reactively to a pollster.
I suppose you might say there is another figure that we can only extrapolate that is ‘hard core’ who will turn out in any weather and vote for their party -any party - however incompetent, unattractive or poor motivators they are.
131. Julia Clark. It’s great to have you posting these clarifications from Ipsos Mori. Thanks. I hope we see more posts from the different polling companies.
Interesting article from National Review on the GOP delegate counts. Seems that if Rudy wins the “winner takes all” states of Florida, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, and Romney stays in long enough to keep coming second in the “apportioned” states (e.g. California and Illinois) then the delegate counts remain fairly close and the race goes on beyond Super Tuesday.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTFmY2Y3ZjBkZmFiMjcwMGY1NzVhYWI3M2YyMmMzOGQ=
Julia , Thanks for thew info.
Julia, thanks for your prompt response. 1983 was 25 years ago. The profile of voters has radically changed in that time. Also nuLabour attracts a different set of voters compared to the Labour party of 1983. For example many of the hard core left have transferred their support elsewhere.
Labour also achieved just 36 at GE05, an election where the Conservatives were hardly a viable alternative.
IMHO that would place the core vote for Labour at something under 30 and probably nearer 25. A guess? Yes, but in the recent May locals Labour typically fails to get into the 30s.
Now for the poll that really matters - if seant is about I wonder if he’d like to comment on the following?
“55% of Republicans have sex at least once a week, compared with just 43% of Democrats.
14% of Thompson supporters and 12% of Obama supporters claim to have sex “almost every day.” Just 5% of Clinton and Giuliani supporters have sex that frequently.”
Thompson supporters? Who would have thought?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/11/the_politics_of_sex.html
Unlike Woger, many might wonder why Hain hid donations from the very dubious Isaac Kaye who bankrolled the South African National Party and therefore apartheid.
Did Hain need all that money for that weird orange bodypaint?
Test
136 HF until we see a seriously unpopular Labour government we will not know - I tend to go with around 30% for the core Labour vote, even with local election performances. Andrea or some other expert can probably tell us but I think Conservative Party local shares fell below the Conservative GE core vote if you look back to early/mid 90’s as we lost huge numbers of councillors.
Witan (130):
I certainly agree, and we are always happy to publish the more detailed figures – it is great to see the in-depth data used, as often times the focus is just on the topline findings.
A bit more clarification on the filter issue: we use the ‘certain to vote’ filter on our VI (voting intention) figures because for voting figures we are especially interested in identifying and representing the voting population - as well as the general population of course, which is why we publish both figures.
We find the filter useful for that question particularly because we believe the filter is the best way of identifying the voting population of the country (hence why we do not include those who are 7s, 8s or 9s on the ‘certain to vote’ question like some of our competitors do) and thus of providing a VI figure that we believe is as close as possible to what would ‘actually’ happen if an election were held tomorrow.
We don’t use the same filter on the other questions (like ‘capable PM’) because they are attitudinal, and we are more interested in what the whole population thinks about (e.g.) Brown’s leadership skills, and not just the voting population.
However, I definitely agree that it is of interest to see whether the two figures change in the same way with the filter, and we’re very happy to publish both figures. We’ve done some work on the subject in the past, and – from memory – I believe the ‘capable PM’ figures moved far less than the voting figures when the filter was applied.
Hope that helps explain our thinking!
HF (136):
I agree that the Labour party has changed in the last 25 years, and it is of course possible that the core of Labour support is below 30%. However, this is simply the figure that we currently use as an indicator when looking at the national picture. Measuring the core of Labour support by a survey approach would be very difficult (if not impossible – how would we know we were right?), and so the General Elections are currently the best absolute measure we have.
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI
141 Thank you Julia for your very helpful contributions.
Once again thanks Julia, IPSOS MORI have gone up in my estimation from your engagement on here today.
141. Julia, while you are here, I wonder if you have any thoughts about the U.S. New Hampshire polls from last week which as you’ll know were so far out it was untrue. Can we ever trust them in primaries again?
54, 61, etc.
Wrongheaded.
It’s amazing how many apparently intelligent people confuse GDP “per head” with overall GDP.
The first is a crude but indicative measure of the average wealth of a citizen in one country; the second is a crude but indicative measure of the overall size of a country’s economy - its total output, or “turnover” if you like.
The two figures are further complicated by whether GDP is adjusted for purchasing power parity or not.
The FT is referring to the overall GDP of Britain, which on a raw basis is now smaller than France’s economy, due to the recent notable drop in the pound against the euro.
On a PPP basis, however, the British economy is probably about 10% bigger than France - and will continue to be so for the fcreseeable future, as both economies are now experiencing similar sluggish growth rates (with Britain perhaps marginally ahead)
On a GDP per capita basis, Britain is also ahead of France and Germany (and even America on an unadjusted basis). However it lags far behind countries like Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Luxemburg, etc.
Back ON TOPIC. This is rather good news for Cammo. I think it adds to the general impresssion that the Tories are now a steady 5-10% ahead of Labour, after being 5-10% behind.
I think this shift is firm and maybe permanent, following the Autumn of Disasters. Whether it means a Tory GE victory is an entirely different matter.
145 - Any thoughts on 137 Sean?
JohnLoony - I have posted on your wonderful joke on the last thread (including a translation).
Suprising there aren’t more Volapuk speakers on pb.com - when are the Volapuk elections?
Conservativehome.com…
“A poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph will, ConservativeHome undertstands, have solidly good news for David Cameron - on personal ratings and headline voting intentions”
Back on the subject of “core Labour support”, do we really think that Labour has reached rock bottom at 32 or is there more to go?
IPSOS Mori post 1987 lowest rating for Labour appears to be 30. I think that this record will be broken within the next 6 months.
FYI 29th Jan 2007 the IPSOS Mori polls had C 39, L 35 and LD 19.
Listened to trashy local radio this morning. Clegg’s speech made the three minute news bulletin. Was surprised.
137 are Thompson’s supporters having sex with anyone else or just themselves?
149 - The core labour vote would be lower if it became outflanked on the left, as it is I’m sure that some votes reside there because they are given no other practical choice.
That Clegg bounce was quite long-lived, wasn’t it?
How long did it last? Eighteen hours? Between breakfast and elevenses? If you nipped out for a sandwich you could have missed it, especially if you stopped to buy a newspaper.
Perhaps the briefest new leader honeymoon in polling history. Chalk up another record to the Lib Dems.
151 - Or do they even know what day it is?
154 not unless they need new batteries.