It’s 7/1 that Hain will be “on his bike” this month
January 15th, 2008
Was it £200,000 well spent Peter?
For me Labour-leaning blogger, Paul Linford, sums up Peter Hain’s predicament best - “…the real reason he’s finished is because he spent 200 grand coming fifth behind Harriet Harman in the deputy leadership contest. However things pan out with the donations story, Hain has been living on borrowed political time ever since that dismal result and the only way is down from now on.”
To be be prepared to spend that sort of money on a campaign for one of the biggest non-jobs in UK politics seems absolutely crazy irrespective of where the funds came from. Quite what was he thinking about?
My sense is that the reason he failed to oversee the tidying up of his campaign properly was because the result was so painful for him. The former Young Liberal leader who defected to Labour to advance his career simply did not want to do anything that would remind him of the humiliation.
Now he looks doomed - the only real question being when. If you want to bet on these things William Hill have sent me an email to say that they are offering odds of 7/1 that he’ll be out by the end of January. That price looks quite tempting even though I think he’ll survive beyond that but not for much longer.
Meanwhile the Guardian takes Gordon to task in its main leader for not making the decision on Hain’s future himself.
“Gordon Brown is not the first politician to outsource moral judgement to an independent agency. But by leaving the Electoral Commission and the parliamentary commissioner for standards to decide whether Peter Hain should stay in office after what appears to be a sustained breach of electoral law the prime minister has taken the practice to a new level..He told yesterday’s Sun that “it would be a great loss if [Mr Hain] had to leave the government” but that “the matter must rest with the authorities”. This is a strange comment. In this matter Mr Brown is the final authority, a man whose claim to office rests on his good judgement and ability to take decisions rapidly.”
Specialist cycling safety note: If you are riding a mountain bike off road you should wear proper gear and certainly have bike clips on so your trousers don’t get entangled in the chain. At least he could have tucked them in his socks! Also using a mobile phone while cycling is not recommended.
Mike Smithson
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Surely Brown’s problem is that Hain is not the only one with dodgy contributions. (Perhaps also Cameron’s difficulty.) If Hain goes, what price Harman, Alexander, and for that matter, George Osborne?
That said, Hain must go.
1 — on the other hand, the EC buys him time, and doubtless a large bucket of whitewash in due course. Resignation on points of honour are now quite rare.
re 1. The big difference, surely, between Osborne and Hain is that the former’s money seems to have been used effectively. The Hain cash was a complete waste.
4 Can’t see there’s any value in the 7/1 Mike. Looks like Gordon will be playing this one slow and relying on the Commission to decide. That surely cannot happen before the end of the month.
I don’t know if Hills are still offering 2/1 him being the next Cabinet Minister to go but if they are, that might be worth a few quid. Their Politics Site is, as usual, down until Sidney shows up for work.
2 and one apprears to have broken the law
Re: cycling - To be fair, it appears that Hain has stopped to take the call.
The Guardian leader is an example of where it has all gone wrong for Brown. In the Blair years the Guardian would have decried the arbitrary use of powers and preferred matters to be dealt with by due process, etc. Now that Brown is doing precisely that it is taken as a sign of political weakness.
This is surely yet another example of events now being viewed through the prism created by the non-election debacle last autumn.
Re: previous thread - interesting that Rod’s graph shows a consistent repeating shape in the graph from month to month - nothing could demonstrate more clearly the institutionalised differences between the pollsters and how they definitely shouldn’t be compared directly.
What it also shows is (aside from the Brown honeymoon period, and filtering out the noise) a consistent rise in the Tory share. If the pattern is repeated then the Tories are in a slight dip period at the moment but should be pushing up towards high 40s in a few months.
6 From his spotless suit looks like he has just got on the bike to make the call - perhaps its a new service where ministers wait round on bikes ready to respond to any sponsor, sorry, any voter needing personal attention.
It’s not an abitrary use of powers. The Prime Minister is the head of government and the disposition of the Cabinet is his affair. The Electoral Commission cannot decide to fire Peter Hain, they can only tell him off then it’s up to Brown. If the police become involved (a real possibility) then do we wait for the investigation? if charged, for the trial?
If Gordon Brown means what he says about Hain being a great minister then Hain has nothing to fear from resignation. After, as he assures us, the investigations find no malice or crime merely a memory lapse then Gordon will surely re-appoint him after a suitable break.
In the era of photoshop, whose to say what the original photo was. I am sure James Purnell is there somewhere. Maybe the bike was added as an afterthought, but what was removed?
Real shame about what’s happening to Hain, one of the more likeable UK politicians and one of the most genuine.
Isn’t the usual rule (unless you know them personally) that the more one thinks they like a politician, the worse they are in real life (and vice versa)?
Gordon Brown should have got rid of Hain a long time ago. By letting this drag on, he is doing the Government a serious (and wholly unnecessary) amount of damage. Keep up the good work!
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
9. ……….Likeable? Genuine? This is Peter Hain MP right? From what I’ve seen and heard of him (and what the labour membership think of him) he’s none of those things. He dodges questions and issues, does anything to avoid taking responsibility for anything at all and has tried in vain to ignore this problem.
“Also using a mobile phone while cycling is not recommended.”
Yes, my teenage son came asunder trying to retrieve his mobile from a trouser pocket whilst cycling. He went over sideways and broke his elbow to the extent that it had to be wired back together. Ouch!
There are over two weeks left this month. IIRC, Alistair Campbell’s rule of thumb was that a scandal surrounding a minister for more than 11 days would inevitably lead to his or her departure. 7/1 looks on the generous side of fair to me - it would probably take only one more decent-sized aspect of this scandal, or related one, to see him off and there are no doubt plenty of journalists looking for it. I’m not saying I expect him to be out by February, but these are serious allegations with the prospect of a police enquiry and something else on top might just be enough to send the tabloids into overdrive.
Two other question to consider: firstly, how many friends does he have? Not that many - even including Nick. This isn’t like Stephen Byers who was able to hang around for quite a while because he’d good support on the Labour backbenches for pseudo-nationalising Railtrack. Hain’s glory days are decades behind him and the election result itself showed that.
Secondly, what is his point? What will the government lose by dropping him, except possibly opening the floodgates - and if the Electoral Commission finds against him, that will happen anyway. He’s not central to any currently critical legislation like the budget or ID cards. He could be dropped quite easily without many people even noticing. There is therefore little point Brown expending too much political capital on him (though that might not stop him doing it anyway).
12 Fair enough, know his general rep. isn’t great. When I’ve met him personally he has seemed alright to me and much less grey/machine than some others. Anyway tend to rate that higher than hearsay, but that said I’ve never had to work or campaign with him.
9. Wow..Hain likeable?
He is an odious,vain, slimy, arrogant and self-serving prima donna.
If this is what Lefties think is likeable no wonder the country is turning against them en masse.
9 If the bike was never there, then what has he got his leg ov….. no, I better leave it!
I don’t know about lefties, but this centre-left social democrat finds Hain to be all of the things you describe him, not to mention sanctimonious, unctuous, pompous, and humourless. Quite apart from slagging off the Blair government without ever having the courage to resign from it, what sticks in the craw is his turncoat antics on Europe, evolving from a reasonably cogent Eurosceptic into the sort of Europhile whose only argument is to make out that all Eurosceptics are xenophobes. Pathetic. And his tin ear for audience reaction on programmes like Question Time is up (or down) there with that of Patricia Hewitt or Margaret Hodge.
Shouldn’t accepting cash from a former staunch supporter of the apartheid authorities be a cause for resignation?
[9][12][16] I very much doubt that any Prime Minister ever has or ever will be able to form a Cabinet solely of “likeable” people. These are politicians we’re talking about! I don’t think anyone liked George Wigg, but he did a job for Harold Wilson. What does Hain do for Brown?
FWIW I think that Brown is right to wait for the “proper authorities” to report - if only because it cuts the media, including us lot these days I suppose, down to size.
OT — US Democrats’ Nevada debate next Tuesday (2am Wednesday our time) — MSNBC wanted to exclude minor candidates but a judge has ruled otherwise.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gDnNS8D2ehuX_-DVhFZ3z3WK1vtgD8U5V07G0
“LAS VEGAS (AP) — A Nevada judge said Monday that Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich must be included in Tuesday’s candidates’ debate in Nevada.
“Senior Clark County District Court Judge Charles Thompson said if Kucinich is excluded, he’ll issue an injunction stopping the televised debate.
“The judge sided with a lawyer for the Ohio congressman, who says debate host MSNBC at first invited Kucinich to take part and then told him last week he couldn’t.
“A lawyer for the network said MSNBC decided to go with the top three candidates after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
“The judge called it a matter of fairness and said Nevada voters will benefit if they hear from more than just Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.”
As a person who cycles to work daily (8 miles in and back from Muswell Hill to Westminster) I can assure you all that man is on that bike for a photo call. Suit would be ruined and he would then need a shower. Worst kind of posturing I have seen.
We should be pleased though - the thought of him in stretchy lycra….
Totally agree. £200K is ridiculous to run an internal campaign for a fairly mediocre job. I also think that £500,000 to run a shadow chancellor’s office seems amazingly high - and that was the scandal of that that never seemed to be picked up on. It seems the system is awash with money.
Hills have no political markets whatsoever on their website. Water-polo and ice-dancing, yes, but nothing ‘trivial’ like US elections, or the market they’ve invited you to publicise.
Hain’s attitude reminds me of that unattractive American woman (Hemsley?) who evaded taxes. When asked why, she answered that ‘only little people pay taxes’. Even that was a more honest response than Hain has managed so far.
23 — just think how much deputy leadership campaigns and shadow chancellors’ offices will cost once we move to full state funding.
9. “In the era of photoshop, whose to say what the original photo was. I am sure James Purnell is there somewhere. Maybe the bike was added as an afterthought, but what was removed?”
9/12/16/18 etc. “Real shame about what’s happening to Hain, one of the more likeable UK politicians and one of the most genuine. ”
I’ve spoken to a couple of Labour friends about Hain recently, before this scandal broke. Both are very active in the London party.
They referred to him as a “Professional ‘See You Next Tuesday’ “.
They intimated their views were not unique.
Hardly a ringing endorsement..
23 The Times has a good table at bottom of column that says what the process should be/is for treatment of donations to individuals or party. Different between Government & Opposition. In it the cost of Osborne’s office is said to be 8 people and the costs of the Tax Reform Commission. MoS reported staff costs were £359k so Commission on top of that and its getting close to half a million.
Also gives an explanation as to why Willets registered in Interests and Osborne (and others) didn’t - based on whether cash was transferred out of Party accounts to constituency or member accounts.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3187724.ece
Totally off thread, but will cheer u up on this wet and windy day.
the Daily Mash on the Diana ‘thing’
http://tinyurl.com/33antv
A quick flick between the two ten o’clock news programmes last night was very heartwarming. We moved from the debacle of Northern Rock - with a story blaming Brown for constant interference and implying serious frictions with the Chancellor - to the pratfalls of Peter Hain.
The editorial comment around the stories had a notably unfavourable tone. To the average person the impression would clearly be of a government stumbling from one crisis to another.
The Osborne thing has dissapeared from everywhere too, BBC website now no longer mentions it, and no news bulletins last night seemed to carry it. Hain’s woes and northern wreck jostled for room at the top of the political slots.
Osborne to be subject of parliamentary standards investigation. sky news
Frankly Hain shouldn’t even still be in post! It appears that he is trying desperately to blag his way out of the ordure. The Guardian leader gets to the nub of the issue for Brown in that here is someone with his much vaunted moral compass not making a moral judgment but hiding behind ‘investigations’. How Brown fails to see that his relaunch has been totally torpedoed by his dis-honourable friend is beyond me, is he so lacking in judgment? I would have thought there would be money to be made on him not lasting to February, certainly he will be casualty 1 of Browns cabinet this year.
Politics bets are back on the William Hill web site but I cannot see the Hain one.
Anyone prepared to bet against McCain in MI tonight?
The last 3 polls show him right on the same number, 27%. the man who seems to be bouncing around is Romney. If the polls are correct however, Romney is within striking distance.
It’s a question of whether perhaps there is a vote for the native MI boy could make the difference?
Hain at 7/1. How long will it take the inquiry? More than likely weeks. It would take something more to come out for him to go early.
30. Its because Osborne’s case is procedural and pretty open ans shut. Thus is plain damn boring.
The difficulty with the position Brown has taken on this is that there is a good chance that the Electoral Commission will come back with the kind of equivocal judgment that puts the onus straight back on GB (and Hain, I suppose) to make a decision. The Electoral Commission would not say “His conduct has been so bad he must resign”. Of course, the judgment might be expressed in terms so severe that Hain or GB feels he has no option but to resign/sack Hain, or alternatively it might be clear from the verdict that the EC thinks this was an innocent and relataively minor oversight, but my experience of these things is that the arbitral body will stop short of language that determines the issue of a politician’s future and which could lead either side to claim victory.
31 sp Old news. Some Labour MP wrote to the Commissioner and that automatically triggers an initial investigation to establish if there is any weight to the allegation. So it means very little.
How many times was Blair investigated this way?
About time “Bottler Brown” called a general election.
The end is nigh for NuLabour
NORTHERN ROCK 73.99 -8.51 -10.32%
Would anyone put me off investing in more conservative and LibDem seats at this moment?
34 “Anyone prepared to bet against McCain in MI tonight?”
I have but only for a small amount. Reading about McCain being booed by some crowds tempted me.
30 the Osbourne item and the Cameron ’story’ on newsnight are non-events put there to avoid accusations from Labour that the media are biased.
If you look hard enough you will find some mistakes in almost any donor story because the rules on donations have become even more Byzantine than the tax laws in this country.
There is a massive difference though in breaking House rules (club matter dear boy, - sorry I meant HOC matter- dealt with by the committee, slap on wrist; that kind of thing) and breaking the law of the land.
The Labour donor stories all revolve around illegal donations.
The big issue over Hain which will in my view be his undoing is that if the think-tank was merely a vehicle to keep his donors identity secret then it puts his ‘mistake’ into a different category altogether. He will be lumped in with the Abrahams affair as it grinds inevitably towards charges.
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls are accurate
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls are
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls are accurate gives
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls are accurate gives hom
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which if teh polls are accurate gives him
29. what is heartwarming about that? if the government really is stumbling from one crisis to another, then so is the country.
40-43 I’m guessing Yokel you have trouble with the submit submit submit….
38. I’m guessing any last minute polling booth sentiment would lie with Romney which, if the polls are accurate, gives him a chance.
McCain should be taking this and any win will do as it will for Mitt but McCain’s figures seem to be hanging at a dangeous mark of less than 30% which in effectively a two horse race makes him vulnerable to a late push.
In your own time Yokel.
From reading the various Hain stories I began to feel sorry for the man. From what I can gather the sequence of events was:
Hain declared himself a candidate in late 2006 and began to set up a team. One of his people set up the PPF, possibly intending this to be an active think tank supporting “Hainism”. Campaign got going and there was a row between his ex political aide, who at first managed campaign, and a professional campaigner who wanted a “modern campaign”. Hain went with the “modern” campaign. At this point a political aide who knew the rules on donations was lost to the campaign.
The professional campaign doesn’t seem to have matched expenditure to income and overspent heavily in last few weeks. After the election the professional team left and Hain found out he had debts of up to £100k. Hain doesn’t appear to be a rich man with £100k easily available and this must have been a huge worry. Working with John Underwood he concentrated on raising funding to pay the bills. Paying the bills seems to have resulted in corners being cut and suddenly in late November Hain realised this would catch him out.
So he’s had money worries for most of summer and this has been followed by career concerns since end November. His fault but can’t help but feel a bit of sympathy.
40-43
Yokel,my dear chap, do you suffer from the “shakes” in the morning.
Allow me to bring you a tumbler of the finest Scotch to steady your nerves.
O/T- gosh I left the thread mid morning yesterday, and was accused of all sorts in my absence, most notably plagarising Bridget Jones which is about as low as it gets.
Just to clarify the comments I made on Osborne’s teenage dress code(will not repeat for fear of hijacking the thread again) were from a friend of mine who is heavily involved in various anti racist groups.
Really you Tories here, you are just soooo touchy on anything that resembles any kind of criticsm on your side. Of course Osborne wanted to hide his huge departmental budget- he didn’t break the law, and obviously wanted to hide under technicalities. He also was an ideological young Tory, and may have had (and still hold) some quite unsavory beliefs. We all mellow out as we grow older- half of Labour are from the Trotsky fringes. If you cannot be ideological when you are young what is life about?
If people are whiter than white then go join the priesthood.
Politicians lie for a living, they weasle, spin, contort, deflect, don’t answer questions all the time. And particularly now, in our age of careerist politicians we are lumbered with a collection of highly ambitious, very bright, professional politicians who are born and bred lyers. They’ve plied their trade for years, and no very little else about other things.
39. “If you look hard enough you will find some mistakes in almost any donor story because the rules on donations have become even more Byzantine than the tax laws in this country”.
Is that not the general problem. We have so many laws and regulations that twiddling your thumbs undoubtedly breaks some. Then they are not enforced or are in reality unenforceable. The next stage is for Ministers to believe that they are not applicable to them - Straw in an official car breaking the speed limit because he was running late for an important meeting. And we get to the position today where they believe that when they personally break the law it is of no consequence because they are so important that what they do is above the law.
57. you accused him of being a rascist ‘hang mandela’ tory, despite not having any kind of proof apart from the fact that he was a tory when younger, ’so he must have been’. Thats why they got annoyed, you just made accusations despite having no evidence, quite nasty accusations too. Have any proof yet?
Working lads ye know, phones at each ear and all that..anyway whats the point of me spelling it out, people learn better of their brain is challenged to close the implication themselves..
Having said that, no idea why I did that.
‘Politicians lie for a living’
Many other sorts of people seem unable to stop lying too, even when they aren’t being paid for it.
From previous thread…
“134. Rod - You should take your polling data from December 6th 2005 when the Tories got their new leader. To use the May-December 2005 polls simply distorts the picture and you know it. All parties that have just lost elections see collapses in their polling numbers.
by Mike Smithson January 15th, 2008 at 4:55 am ”
134. Mike, it’s a six-poll rolling average going right back to May 2005. It therefore includes the period in which Cammo became leader, and I can’t see how such a small rolling average can “distort” anything. It’s rolling seat forecast based on rolling polls…
Perhaps I should have put an x-axis scale on it… Does this make it clearer? http://www.titanictown.plus.com/bigpic.jpg
The important bit is the Tories majority status lasted a week…. (that little blue-line blip over 325)
O/T - NR shares dropping like a brick. I guess the end is nigh!
55: That’s an admirably fair summary, Ted - I won’t even bother to reply to the bile from a bunch of posters with fully-formed opinions about someone they’ve never met.
More generally, I think that in our collective anxiety as politicians to reassure the public we’ve probably overdone it and set up so many checks and balances that it’s becoming increasingly hard to mmake sure you don’t trip over something. Are there any other countries in the world where, if you’re standing for an internal post in a political party, you have to file detailed, overlapping but different, reports to two independent bodies?
I have the simplest of Register of Interests returns - I have 51% of the shares in a tiny company left to me by my mother. But every time I fill in the form I feel nervous. Have I made sure the rules haven’t changed in some detail? That birthday present from Aunt Isabel, it looks expensive, should I check it out?
This is not an excuse for not following the rules - I think Peter is a great Minister (it’s only two weeks since he was being praised to the skies for resolving the pension fund collapses) but he’s clearly cocked up the returns here. But the rules themselves need a fresh look, and having the EC deal with parties and the Registrar with individuals rather than both dealing with both might be a good start.
OT..again.
New poll on Nevada Caucus for Dems.
Obama 32
Clinton (who is my current pick for the state win) 30
Edwards….27
Shows 3 way race. No idea where Edward’s massive boost has come from so perhaps needs to be treated with great caution.
58
‘Is that not the general problem. We have so many laws and regulations that twiddling your thumbs undoubtedly breaks some. Then they are not enforced or are in reality unenforceable.’
Spot on,that’s been the trend for the past few years just add more and more laws with little or no attempt to try to make existing laws work.
We have the current example of Harriet Harperson’s grandstanding on prostitution.
64 - “More generally, I think that in our collective anxiety as politicians to reassure the public we’ve probably overdone it and set up so many checks and balances that it’s becoming increasingly hard to mmake sure you don’t trip over something.”
Maybe the realisation of that with regard to politician’s own affairs will lead to a realisation in government that this is what has happened to the rest of the country. What do you expect if you legislate like rabbits?
64. Nick, your man hasnt helped himself by his public statemenst which reek of arrogance.
If he could sort that out maybe the facts would come out in due course and the thing laid to rest if it comes to down to procedural errors rather than legal issues.
Personally I think his time is limited. He’s not the type to resign unless he’s beaten into because frankly it would kill his ambition. Gordon though may well move him out in due course if the investigations show he’s done wrong and punish him for it.
65 - Maybe Edwards is benefitting from the constant spats back and forth between Clinton and Obama.
64. What a lame post, even by recent standards - ‘the rules are just too confusing for poor innocents like Peter’.
How do you square this with EC sources referring to him treating the law ‘with contempt’? You are living in a fantasy world if you think anyone will be convinced by this stuff.
30: sorry, cuddles, the Osborne story is still making news too and spreading to what appears to be a large part of the Shadow Cabinet:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3185106.ece
64
Agree with you it’s an over complicated system.
Why not simply change it so all donations over say £5,000 are sent first for approval to the Electoral commission and are then passed on to the party.
Nick Palmer You did not pass the laws on political donations to reassure the public rather it was to shaft the Tories while dressing up in shiny new, whiter than white, robes.
it is a wonderful irony that it is Labour that has been bitten by all these ‘reassurances’.
59- cuddles- the Osborne teengae dress code (badges or t-shirts) is widely circulated. I was only repeating something on here that I thought everyone had heard. A bit like the Cameron thing, or the Brown thing.
I am very surprised that it came as anything like a shock to you, or to anyone else on this site.
My friend active in the anti racist groups is adamant that it is true. But without pictures will just be one of those rumours that floats around sites like this, and will occasionally surface when someone wants to wind people up. And in this case that someone was me, and it worked.
Next time just ignore it instead of getting your knickers in a twist and jumping so stoutly to the defence of someone who I can assure is not whiter then white.
71. All the cash has been registered hasn’t it? There is some confusion over whether or not is has been registered correctly, but it has been registered. The confusion has arisen because of the rather odd rules that govern the system. Hain did not register his donation at all. One is a procedural problem, the other is illegal.
Hey Tyson - are you by any chance interested in the facts? I suspect that you are simply a low grade smear merchant but, just in case, here they are:
The infamous ‘Hang Nelson Mandela’ t-shirts never existed. In 1984 (I think) a well-known member of the Federation of Conservative Students produced a square sticker that read ‘Hang Nelson Mandela and all ANC terrorists. They are butchers’. This was, in turn, a parody of the Anti-Apartheid Movement sticker, ‘Free Nelson Mandela and all ANC political prisoners’. The sticker was never official and was not endorsed by FCS, although, in fairness, there were a number of right wing Tory activists around at that time who did take that position. The National Union of Students newspaper ‘National Student’ ran a story on the sticker at the time and exaggerated it. Hence a legend was born.
George Osborne was too young to have been involved in FCS (it closed in 1986) and was not particularly involved in student Conservative politics, certainly at a national level. There is no - repeat NO - evidence that he ever engaged in any racist behaviour while a student.
Having smeared him will you now apologise?
69. I don’t know but its suspect at thsi time and I await some confirmation, as much as I gave Edwards my financial vote at the start of the whole race.
7 to 1 is good odds. The story has so much mileage that there will come a time in the near future when the towel will have to be thrown in.
Indeed, more and more new laws, and no leeway or excuse for the ordinary person who inadvertently infringes these laws - although the old crimes, theft and violence, do create a queue of lawyers to defend perpetrators, if they are ever charged.
I wonder if politicians ever realise just how much general resentment they create.
70: Harry, you are misquoting me both in letter and spirit, which is a bit silly of you since people can scroll up six posts and find what I said. My point about the system in 64 is explicitly about the system, not an excuse for Peter Hain’s cock-up - what part of ‘no excuse’ and ‘clearly cocked up’ do you find unclear? As for “EC sources”, are they the same sources who told the Times they were calling in the police and have since denied it?
7. I don’t quite follow your first para..
As for your second, the Tory surges have all been linked to Labour cock-ups (Prescott, cash-for-honours, NR, Datagate, Abrahams), but there seems to be an inexorable gravitational-pull taking them back south…
I’d be cautious about writing Labour off just yet…
74 - that won’t do, Tyson, and you know it. Where does it end?
People insinuating “xxxx is well known for visiting prostitutes” or “yyyy is suspected of regular cocaine use, even during Commons debates”?
For as long as your arguments consist of “my mate says it, so it must be true” I think we are entitled to ignore your “assurance”.
65/69 - or possibly Edwards sees Nevada as his best chance to reinvigorate his campaign while Clinton and Obama fight it out in South Carolina. He has apparently made more visits there than his rivals combined.
79 - They will in 18 months to 2 years!
67 - I think this is a hugely important point. Whilst I have some sympathy for Nick’s point in 64, it does neatly seem to mirror the experience of the public in general (and certainly those within the business community). Over the course of the past ten years, the government’s legislatory hyperactivity has left many simply not knowing whether they might be breaking laws, and greatly increased insecurity as a result. If simplification is desirable in the regulation of MPs conduct (and I would agree that it is, not least so that we can get away from the appalling spectacle of ministers claiming to be to inept to observe their own laws), then it is clearly similarly desirable in other walks of life.
The biter bit, as it were.
74. I have no idea if Osborne did those things, however your acting like a rumour about him circulating around is fact, and reporting it as such. As far as I can tell you put it on here to wind people up, which either proves you have a rather odd sense of humour, or nothing better to do. Either way trying to hop onto your high horse and make yourself out to be some kind of rebel trying to prove a point, rather than just someone who wanted to take a pop at the tories but couldn’t come up with anything better than a rumour ‘my mate told me’, is pretentious to say the least.
80. No I’m not, Nick. You are trying to suggest PH has made a mistake but it’s somehow an understandable (if not excusable)result of a terribly complex set of rules. So PH should get a gentle slap on the wrist but then the priority really ought to be to get on with making these rules a bit easier for MPs (poor dears) to understand.
All this ignores (among other things) - his arrogant behaviour, his bizarre use of a front organisation to funnel donations, and one of the donations coming from a rather surprising source.
Your spinning is more transparent than you seem to think.
It still does seem to be rather unusual for funds to be passed on to Peter Hain, via a think tank which has no body of published or unpublished work, let alone anybody doing work for it. Has he been open and transparent about PPF or not?
Logging outflows and inflows of cash, and cheques doesn’t have to be taxing if there is a competent bookeeper in the team.
As for the heading photograph, I had wondered if Mike Smitheon had started a caption competion.
85 To follow up on Animal’s point, has anyone else noticed how difficult it is to get anyone to act as a Branch Treasurer recently? It was always a thankless task, but now it is a bureaucratic chore as well, with the added disadvantage of breaking the law if you get the format of your accounts wrong. (Not the facts, just the format.)
Much easier to be a leaflet deliverer instead.
84. I’m not sure how any plausible outcome of the next General Election will convey to the candidates of both large parties the feeling, justified or not, that government, in all its forms, is hostile to the people it rules.
OT, but - as predicted - the annual Retail Price Inflation for the whole of 2007, from the Office of National Statistics, is confirmed at 4.3%.
Nurses, police officers and teachers will be relieved to hear that there was downward price pressure last month from reduced furniture prices, particularly for kitchen units and leather sofas.
Increases in income tax, council tax, energy, oil and petrol prices appear to have little bearing on the figures - but you can all afford a new sink and leather sofa now.
Altogether now . . say pretty thank you to our beloved Leader.
86. The poster at 74. is a pathetic fantasist who should best be ignored.
Yesterday’s thread was horrid. Today it looks like it is going the same way: eg:
64. What a lame post, even by recent standards
76. Hey Tyson - are you by any chance interested in the facts? I suspect that you are simply a low grade smear merchant.
How about arguing the facts without abuse (even if you rec’d it).
In particular if you want Nick Palmer to post here stop abusing him and argue with him. I’ve had arguments with him in the past, but never needed to abuse him in the process. I thought yesterdays posts directed to him appalling. What is the point in driving him or others you disagree with off.
This will just reinforce the Conservative party of being the nasty party, a label that is trying to be shed and certainly not true of many Conservatives who post here (eg Sean, Benedict, etc).
64 Nick, while I can sympathise with the pressures and understand how Peter Hain ended up in his position, I still believe he should resign because we are not talking here about “rules” but about the law.
Osborne & other shadow cabinet members fulfilled the letter of the law, the Commons authorities might find they broke rues but the police will not be interested. It looks like Peter Hain broke the law - law says 30+30 days, he didn’t do that. The question then becomes what punishment or restitution he would have to make or possibly the Labour Party should make. It’s difficult to see that he can retain a Cabinet post if guilty of law breaking but depends whether the EC considers his breaking law on donations is serious or was just an error so on a par with speeding offence. IMHO it’s serious enough that he should go.
As for the law & rules being complex - sorry but who set them up? MPs. They have only themselves to blame if they didn’t (as all too often) thoroughly examine their proposed laws and rules and make clear what these were.
Mike, I think 7/1 is very attractive indeed but unfortunately when I called Hills they knew nothing of such a bet. Others have also checked the website (33) but drawn blanks. Do you know of anyone who has actually got this bet with Hills? Or perhaps others could point me somewhere else where I could get 7/1.
93. ‘This will just reinforce the Conservative party of being the nasty party’
(Chuckle) was that use of a stock astroturfer phrase deliberate or just unfortunate? Really, if you think me describing a post as ‘lame’ is ‘abuse’ you must have led a very sheltered life.
83. I kwow he has the steel workers etc out there in Nevada on his side.
The question is, if he is boosted in the polls, even if not by the huge extent that this one suggests it certainly is damaging one of Obama & Clinton more than the other. My money is on Clinton but shes hanging in there.
Despite the belief that Edwards has more in common with Obama I think that Edwards & Clinton are fishing much more in the same traditional blue collar pools.
I think that I am the only poster on this site who is a party treasurer, and therefore have to make quarterly returns of loans and donations to the Electoral Commission.
I can say that it is impossible for anyone to just get in a muddle over this, or make an inadvertent error. The EC write to me each quarter, reminding me of the need to complete and return the two relevant forms, and advising that this has to be done in a four week time frame. If you contact them for advice, they are incredibly helpful, and are pleased to assist.
The idea that Hain was too busy or too disorganized is pathetic; if he was too busy or too disorganized to complete a very simple form, then he is clearly unfit for purpose as an MP let alone a minister
Spectator libel hang mandela
76. No official FCS “Hang Nelson Mandela” t-shirts may have existed, but some renegade FCS members certainly went and got them made. Two members of the UCL Conservative Association were spotted wearing them at the 1984 NUS Conference. I won’t name them as they are probably both respectable laywers/merchant bankers/New Labour MPs by now.
97 - Edwards and Clinton are indeed attracting similar types but what will be interesting is who Edwards finally supports. All the signs say that he will throw his backing behind Obama which, if his supporters follow, will give Obama a greater breadth of support than than Clinton.
I noticed how many Con MEPs are retiring compared to other parties.
It looks as 8 Con MEPs are going to stand down at next Euro Election, compared to 1 LD and 2 Labourites
Brown dithers, shirks responsibility, then goes into hiding. Meanwhile he sends out the usual muppets to try to smear an opposition politician with the “we’re all as bent as each other” spin. It’s Bottlers usual response when the going gets tough.
Not very edifying, is it comrades?
BTW. I’m beginning to wonder if Hain has anything on him, otherwise wouldn’t he have been out by now?
The Osborne story still has some mileage left in it.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/funding/story/0,,2240664,00.html
Even though I think Hain should resign, getting the police involved, (they must be dreading it) a total waste of time, (see Dominic Lawson) I see what Hain did as more criminally incompetent, than criminal. The system should be able to punish him, with heavy fines etc, the fines going to help pay for the standards body.
I think its very unlikely that any photo exists of GO wearing the, ‘Teeshirt’ if it did Max Clifford would be advising the owner of the photo on how to make the most out of it!
98 Glad to hear it, Barry, but you do not have subsidiary branches which have to supply data to you in order for you to process and send it on to The Authorities. The subsidiary branches are also caught with the full rigor of the accountinmg process, together with its inflexible timetable, and this is hacking off a load of volunteers.
But that doesn’t matter, because the People Who Matter would much rather politics was left to professionals like them, rather than well-meaning (and perhaps more idealistic/ideological) amateurs.
re 9 I can’t believe I’ve just read that. Peter Hain “genuine” he believes compeltely the opposite now from what he did in the 1970s. If anyone is evidence of believing whatever’s necessary to get hands of levers of power it’s Hain.
64. Nick Palmer. For Hain it’s not just about cocking up the return. It’s also about explaining
1. Why he chose to spend £200K on his campaign, far more than his rivals? Was this either fair or appropriate?
2. Why the later monies he received were processed through this policy forum and what is the purpose of this policy forum?
3. Why he received 10K in donations from a Trades Union over which his Department decides on the employment of some of it’s members, (according to Newsnight last night)?
4. Why it has taken him so long to finally submit all the financial information to the relevant authorities?
My view is that he won’t survive this as a minister. I took the 2/1 yesterday that he is the first minister out, so I won’t be looking for the 7/1 to be gone this month as the time frame might be too short.
74 “But without pictures will just be one of those rumours that floats around sites like this, and will occasionally surface when someone wants to wind people up”
Come off it, Tyson. You attempted a nasty little, totally unsubstantiated, smear and you, quite rightly, got pulled for it. You should put your hands up to it instead of squirming and trying to justify yourself.
I suppose you’ll be telling us you’ve seen the legendary photo of Gordon Brown in a nappy riding a rocking horse next
9: “Real shame about what’s happening to Hain, one of the more likeable UK politicians and one of the most genuine. ”
ROFL!!!!! That’s is hilarious, must be a wind-up. Hain is one of the most false-seeming politicians i’ve ever come across. Creepy and weird, and totally unconvincing.
96: I do regard you as routinely aggressive, harry - it simply has the effect that I don’t usually bother to reply to you, whereas an argument from someone like Marcus Wood, who is certainly as Tory as you are, gets attention.
Ted: “As for the law & rules being complex - sorry but who set them up? MPs. They have only themselves to blame if they didn’t (as all too often) thoroughly examine their proposed laws and rules and make clear what these were.” - yes, I agree.
96. I used it as an example. All your posts yesterday were particularly unpleasant.
Why bother with the abuse - just argue the case with Nick.
All that comes over is person full of bile. That doesn’t happen when say Sean or Benedict make say the same point you are making. Your perfectly valid arguments just get overshadowed by the abuse and you appear as an unpleasant person (I’m sure you are not).
And you couldn’t even stop in response to my post.
The phrase I used (not as an insult from me) is not an astroturfer’s phrase but one used widely in the media and by Conservatives themselves (eg May, Cameron). It is something that the Conservatives have worked hard on trying to distance themselves from. Why spoil that.
tyson @ 57 “…I was accused of all sorts in my absence, most notably plagarising Bridget Jones which is about as low as it gets.”
No, there’s much, much lower to go. For example, Joe Biden plagiarised Neil Kinnock.
That is really stooping down low.
Wow! Some people really, really dislike Peter Hain don’t they!
Well I stick by my comment. He seemed alright when I met him and his longstanding position on Aparthied and racism in the UK deserves respect. I thought he did well when he used his credibility on this issue to take a stand against Mugabe in defence of White farmers. IMO the orange one is more interesting than many other grey UK politicians. Shame he’s blown it.
Note to all posters: please do not disagree with Nick Palmer MP or point out any inconsistencies/errors in his posts or you will be accused of trying to bully a “celebrity poster” off the site.
You have been warned about this many times before, now LEAVE POOR NICK ALONE!
Picked up the query from “anonymous and dangerous” about the US polls on the last thread - the polls are all well-summarised on the Real Clear Politics site. As I said last night, the best value currently on offer when I looked at Betfair seems to me to be the Republicans to win at 2.74, even though McCain and even Huckabee are to least close to level pegging in the polls. I wish it weren’t so, but those of you who are punters may want to take note. Glad to see Obama and Clinton seem to have called a tacit truce on race issues.
The Times website advertises live coverage of the Michigan primary tonight, though I can’t find a specific link on
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/
112. Well at least he didnt copy the Kinnock ‘Alrighhhhhhhhhhht!’
Since 1992 was my introduction to betting on politics I hold that moment with quite some fondness.
Still no apology Tyson? You know you should. Better for you, better for this blog.
I’m divided as to whether I want Hain to resign. It would obviously restore a little bit of confidence to politics if he did,but part of me would like to watch him continue,wounded, treated with contempt and friendless as a warning to other politicians tempted to break the rules.
110: I know that mathematics and accountancy are not identical disciplines, but did it occur to those who drafted these laws to consult a numerate Labour MP?
115. Tonight could possibly be knife edge stuff in MI, if the polls are pretty accurate, which depending on your postion in the market is either good or worrying.
McCain should win this and any kind of margin will do but Romney is the native son. What I’m trying to work out has that already been reflected in the polls or whether it has a bit of steam in it.
I agree with Nick P re the stress and worry involved in any election expense return. I rememeber completing the national returns for the Tories after the first Scottish parliament elections in 1999. I remember sweating blood worrying that I had forgotten something. I’ll never forget trying to get a receipt for the coffee provided at press conferences just before the deadline. I knew nobody was interested but that was little comfort. Since then the EC has grown into a huge bureacracy and I am told they are very helpful now. However, the point remains I knew the deadline and I was not and never will be a Cabinet minister. Secondly, with the best will in the world its difficult to see the PPF/E? as anything but an attempt to set up a front organisation.
117 - Either way I think the next set of polls could look pretty grim for Labour.
119. Yokel. How important do you think MI is tonight for McCain and Romney. Obviously a win would be a great boost for either candidate. But what about a marginal loss? Would that finish Romney? And would that derail MCain or be viewed as a good result?
apologies for typos!
O/T- Why Bloomberg may not run:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120026233358986931.html?mod=opinion_journal_political_diary
Another record for NuLabour
Several “open goals” exist regarding the UK economy.
Pound falls to fresh low on euro
A weaker pound will raise costs for Britons travelling abroad
The pound has fallen to a fresh all-time low against the euro on growing expectations that the UK will cut interest rates next month.
In early Tuesday trading, sterling touched as low as 76.135 pence to the euro, before later strengthening slightly to 75.84p
What do we do now Gordon?
114. What is the point of trying to bring sanity here?.
I didn’t say don’t argue with him. Argue with him robustly, point out his errors and inconsistencies. I certainly have in the past.
Just don’t abuse him or abuse others.
You wouldn’t do it in business, to friends and strangers, so why do it here?
This gentleman deserves a cabinet post asap.
Best gag I have heard for a long time.
Rock chief: Recovery still possible
The chairman of Northern Rock told a shareholders meeting the bank can still be set “on the road to recovery”.
Bryan Sanderson addressed around 400 investors, big and small, to reassure them the crisis-hit lender can be saved, despite its plummeting share price, the on-going difficulties in securing funds and its continuing search for a buyer.
112 - In fairness to Kinnock, his oratorical skills were very good - he had an often excellent turn of phrase and delivered speeches well. He was a much more technically able and accomplished speaker than Thatcher, for all the good it did him.
Certainly doesn’t mean he would have been a good PM, but don’t let your dislike of the man blind you to his skills in that direction.
125
A weaker pound is not a bad thing, it is a good thing, it will make things a lot easier for exporters, and encourage people to holiday in the UK.
It was the collapse of the ERM, when the pound was fixed at a an over high rate against the DM, that improved the economy.
I’d come in from the window ledge if I were u.
126
*Nobody* has “abused” him, all I’ve seen is some robust argument against some of Nick’s more imaginative claims.
Now what’s wrong with that?
128 Kinnock’s “oratorical skills” may have gone down well amongst some denizens of the Valleys but to most of us he was always a pompous windbag.
122. I think given the state by state focus means that a lot is magnified, sometimes wrongly magnified.
For Romney its survival in the race as a credible candidate though I notice he’s doing ok in the latest Florida polls. A close second woudl hole him again but not kill him.
For McCain I think the bar is higher because of the fact that many in the GOP just have a thing about him not being an establishment man over the years. For him defeat would be just as damaging if not more so because he’s clearly on a bit of surge and if that falters then the next state where McCain is showing winning form in the polls, SC, is coming up quick.
127. It can be turned around as most businesses can though it probably won’t be called Northern Rock at the end of it.
“Race Spells Trouble for the Dems”
“After the past few days, the pertinent question to ask is, is the crack-up happening already?(…)So yes, are the Democrats about to screw it up yet again?”
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1703310,00.html
132. Thanks. Interesting article on realclearpolitics entitled, “McCain faces little incoming fire”, implying that the establishment are much less against him this time around.
131 - He was poor at snappy answers to questions, which is required in the TV age. That is why he is remembered as a windbag. But if you simply listen to his speeches up against say Thatcher’s (in terms of speech structure and delivery rather than content) there is no serious comparison in terms of quality.
130. Yesterday was full of abuse to Nick as it was to others. A number of people posted yesterday as to how unpleasant the thread was.
For instance in my business when I’m having a ‘robust’ discussion I will point out where I think the oppssing argument is flawed and why.
I will not try to impress upon the person I’m arguing with that they are wrong by saying ‘What a lame argument, even by recent standards’ as that is not condusive to them listening to my point of view. It will just get their back up.
And that comment was very tame by yesterday’s standards.
In my work I have to get involved in pretty robust discussions. If you used such language in those discussions it would not be tolerated.
Ague the case, don’t insult.
Am I looking forward to PMQ’s tomorrow!!!!
Despite the polls suggesting a hung parliament, (http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/). I think that when the British people decide to remove Labour it will be such a swing in opinion that Labour might be forced into third place.
The question is, if Labour suffer a big defeat then will the Labour party split. At the moment there is a huge divide in the party and it’s hard to define what Labour actually stands for these days.
Even if there’s a hung parliament and Labour do a deal with Lib Dems to remain in power surely Brown will be removed from his position. No leader can go from a 100 seat majority to lose an election in just 2 years and then keep there job.
129. If a low currency is such a good thing, why doesn’t everything we buy say ‘Made in Zimbabwe’, then?
138 - Labour don’t have a 100 seat majority though.
138 - For a start, Labour’s majority is 64 rather than 100. Secondly, if Labour forms a government with a much reduced or no majority, Brown is damaged but safe for a couple of years at least. It is if Labour can’t do a deal in a hung Parliament that he is dead. Of course, the maths of hung parliaments means you rarely have a choice (a point people routinely miss) but if he had a choice, I am increasingly sure Clegg would deal with Cameron and not Brown. He is a canny chap and sees the greater danger of being seen to prop up a dying government rather than usher in a new one.
Another take on where we are mid-term (UK)…
Con or Labour forecast seat lead since 2005…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/seatlead.jpg
The Tories seem to be dropping back again…
141 What people don’t seem to realise is that Clegg doesn’t have to do anything at all! He can just sit on his hands. As long as the Lib Dems do not vote AGAINST the largest party forming a government in a hung Parliament, then it is up to the largest party to decide whether they want to form a minority administration. If they are told in no uncertain terms that the Lib Dems will support legislation on a case-by-case basis as long as it doesn’t offend the Lib Dems, then it’s business as (almost) normal.
The Lib Dems have learned a lot from working in hung (sorry, “balanced”) Councils over the last few years - and they know that they don’t have to do as they are bidden.
139. In inflation-adjusted terms, Zimbabwe’s currency has actually appreciated significantly (the official rate at least). The rate of depreciation has been way below the rate of inflation.
A litt