A week to go…and some other items
January 18th, 2008
All those who enjoying coming to the site, and not just those who post, will be most welcome at the fourth PBC party a week tonight.
Once again it will be held at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. The date - Friday 25th January 2008, from 6pm until about 9.30pm, or when thrown out if sooner.
There will be a cash bar and a £5 entry charge, payable on the door, as a contribution towards sandwiches and nibbles. Ladbrokes have donated £150 towards the event, thanks to the influence of regular poster Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of The Magic Sign.
Since it is pay on the door, no firm commitments are necessary but it would be helpful if you could give an indication if you are intending to come. We have worked on the basis of about 50 attendees, but if it looks like being much more or less, we may want to alter arrangements. Name tags showing stage names will be available but are strictly optional.
Thanks to Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) and Augustus Carp for the work they have done setting this up
Well done Ipsos-Mori: Last Saturday I had a bit of a rant about the way non-voting intention questions are reported. It will be recalled that the commissioning newspaper, the Sun, was making a big deal about Brown’s ratings as a PM in a poll that had his party 10% behind. The reason was that the voting figures are just based on those who are certain to turnout while the other questions related to everybody in the survey.
In its detailed data the pollster has now included comparative data and on all the questions, bar who would be best in a crisis, Cameron beat Brown amongst the group on who the voting share figures were based.
Politicalbetting point gets raised in Parliament. The CentreRight CONHome off-shoot had a piece by MP Greg Hands earlier in the week based on a story here about the unusual betting on the afternoon Gordon U-turned on the November 1st election. He wanted to know what the rules were about “insider trading” and got back a fairly inadequate answer.
Sean Fear’s Friday Slot will not be appearing this week.
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I cannot now make it, sorry; have a great evening.
230 (Previous Thread) PtP - Haha, A new thread right on cue. That will teach you for calling me a Drama Queen - I mean how upsetting is that?
Congrats anyway on the TTF success.
I notice Extrabet has removed the Democratic Nevada Caucus - can’t say i’m surprised.
From last thread. I notice much comment on Hillary in Nevada.
Seemed odd to me that she was showing well there but Obama still seemed to be favourite. Its taken the market a few days to pick up for some reason it.
Having said all that, I repeat again, if you are going in for teh first time, anything under evens may not look so fantastic when you consider the vagaries of the cauvcus process.
Edwards 2nd preferences in an open poll if 2nd prefernces were allowed to be given would I reckon show more for Clinton than Obama. Amongst his most activists support however the oppsoition might be the case.
With your average caucus actually being a smaller proportion of peoplea fraction of a fraction it may well be that Edward’s most activist suppoorters will have proportionality more influence.
Looks a suitable setting for a Horror.
Fair points Yokel. But I think Hillary is doing better than people think. The machine is in full swing and her performances in Nevada have been much better than the usual Hillary. Also, the latest Mason Dixon poll gives her a nice lead. I think she has lost SC but will win Nevada and the Extrabet earlier was good value compared to the others on offer.
Sorry I won’t be able to make it either. The NLC is a great venue. I used to hang out there occasionally during my student days…
4 That all sounds very convincing Yokel, but when the chips are down, at the end of the day, taking everything into account, etc., etc., who do you think is going to win?
4. CASINO ROYALE - PARTISAN BIAS TIP ALERT:
(thought I’d preempt you all
)
I can’t see Hillary winning Nevada. My “nose” tells me so.
Her opponent “uncommitted” overperformed the polls by a long way in Michigan. By around 5-6% minimum.
Nevada is a Caucus, so minimum Bradley effect. Clintons average lead is less than 4%.
This reminds me of the December 2007 polling situation in Iowa.
Remember: It’s a caucus. Turnout will be low, the MoE of the (small-sampled) polls could be huge.
My money is staying on Obama… Sink or swim
Personal feeling in Nevada - Hillary will take it, probably by about 6%. Another win will help boost her for Super Tuesday.
She’ll probably lose SC but as most pundits have been expecting that for weeks it won’t do her too much damage and she might be able to spin it as an isolated incident.
We then get onto Florida (no delegates but she should win there, picking up any momentum lost since SC) and my guess is she’ll emerge as the frontrunner on Super Tuesday.
Would love to come but the train fare is a touch on the extortionate side.
11 Is that a pathetic attempt at suggesting a subsidy, Woody?
Seriously, sorry you can’t make it. I got your email and will add it to the list.
Seriously O/T from previous thread…..Ten To Follow
Further to Cheltboy’s comment (116), PBers who like to see the Site’s illustrious name in the quality newspapers might like to turn to P.54 of The Racing Post which shows Politicalbetting in 15th place in the TTF competition for the January Prize (£10,000).
We’re actually =13th but I won’t be asking for a correction.
O/T but I see it’s now reported that it was the first officer that actually landed the BA flight yesterday - John Coward - see the headlines now Coward Hero or is that Hero Coward
Dont get me wrong lads, if you check back I have consistently said that I’d back Hillary for Nevada and have done so..when it was a touch bigger than 11/10.
The thing is when she starts to go odds on, is it worth it then?
I’m not so sure myself.
9 Casino - some Hillary backers might say, on reading your further endorsement for Obama, that they can rest easy in their beds tonight. Me - I wouldn’t be so hurtful as to allow such thoughts to even enter my head.
If Edwards wins NV we’d have had 6 comebacks in as many caucases.
12. If only it was like the old days of British Rail when fares were 50p and Jimmy Saville would sit next to you (so I’m told, bit before my time)
14 Absolute classic!
On the subject of insider trading, it does raise an interesting question. betfair would know who was pushing the prices out but is their any law to stop people doing it? Probably the same people who buoght the price into 1.31 that there would be an election.
18 …. and your Mam had packed you off with nice Hovis sandwiches.
O/T Derbyshire Building Society has been put on review for possible downgrade by ratings agency Moody’s due to concern about profits and non-prime mortgages. Moody’s is also considering cutting its ratings on Bradford & Bingley and Alliance & Leicester.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL1849335420080118
re 18 and 21 — The problem was that the trains were packed with women singing “We’re travelling Inter-City like the men do”
23 - Eh? Did you once have an unfortunate experience with a woman on a train Mike? It’s alright, you can tell us about it.
Just a quick bit of history before anyoen thinks I’m knocking Hillary’s chances in NV. I’ve always liked her for the state, even when a recent poll showed her as being behind.
‘Given the vagaries of the caucus system which is one thing that does worry me about Clinton’s chances, if this poll is anyway accurate then the fact shes two points down, with the Obama Union endorsements and Edwards surge isnt bad going at all.
In fact its good.’
by Yokel January 15th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Its just that below evens and it gets much less interesting I think.
22 Oh Dear - more queues outside their branches tomorrow. Could be a tricky day for Darling, etc.
The Age of the Train
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=sd3NRr4SYiA
16. Indeed they might!
We’ll see - maybe I’m a “double-bluff”?
26 In fact, it could be an horrendous day for Darling - and no Brown to hold his hand.
Surely the BoE has no option but to fully support each and every one.
27. “Are you familiar with the music of… Showaddywaddy?!!”
30 After my time…..
30 Good Leicester lads.
Mike and Peter,
I’ll be there. After being a poster here since 2004, I finally make it to a pbc party for the first time
30 Great band. Saw them in Leicester. Must have been 1970. Any earlier than that and I would of course have been unable to remember them.
30 Their “Blue Moon” - pure genius.
I was at the same concert PtP, lived nearby in those days. I remember you being the one in short trousers.
33 Brilliant Andy.
I think it’s healthy to meet those who, through the Site, you may have come to consider obnoxious, opiniated, pedantic, boorish and partisan, and discover that in real life they are in fact very much worse than that.
35 “I remember you being the one in short trousers.”
Definitely not, PfP. Short skirt, maybe.
37 Ah yes, I remember now, nice legs though all the same.
For the 90% on here who don’t know what we’re on about - try watching and listening to their Blue Moon on youtube - they don’t make ‘em like that any more.
Is the government simply daft?
“More than 70,000 police support staff in England and Wales, including 11,500 community support officers (PCSOs), have accepted a 2.5% pay deal.
The pay rise will be backdated to September, in contrast to that offered to regular police officers.”
BBC
39 As that nice Mr Littlejohn would say, “You just couldn’t make it up could you?”
40 You could make it up but it would never be believed.
31-38 etc.
Crikey.
I was only casually quoting Hugh Dennis’ impression of Jimmy Savile on Mock the Week for comedy value.
I seemed to have unearthed a plethora of Showaddywaddy fans instead!!
39-41 The government has no say in this award . The pay of police support staff is recommended by the Police Staff Council directly to the local police authorities/chief constables as opposed to the Police Negotiating Board recommends its pay awards for police officers to the Home Secretary .
42 Well clearly you’re a fan too Casino - you can even spell their name.
It’s gone very quiet on here all of a sudden, do you think everyone’s bopping to Blue Moon?
43 That makes it no less clumsy, silly and explosive.
44. I’m more progressive house mate - got internet radio on
Yeah, is a bit quiet isn’t it?
Maybe everyones too busy licking their Obama wounds (case in point..)
It’s always been said that their is a Tory bias amongst police officers - that must surely be the case now. Include their families and that has to amount to a fair number of votes.
The suggestion 2-3 weeks ago was that this was going to get sorted, but the damage is surely done.
In the last four days we’ve had the Nazis & Stalin, the fall of the Roman Republic, Bunny Girls and now Shwadiwaddy. I imagine some site regulars are feeling a little shy - unsure quite where the site might go next…
48. Shall we talk about my penchant for Bestiality?
(joke)
48 Shwadiwaddy? - may I respectfully refer you to Casino’s post at #42 above.
I know what you mean though - PB.com can be an odd creature at times, for instance I had expected a huge response to the story about Moody’s credit ratings at post#22, but zilch.
Tell you what though, if the queues do materialise tomorrow, we will be talking of nothing else.
44. Tyson, ukpaul and bluemoon might be.
36. “I think it’s healthy to meet those who, through the Site, you may have come to consider obnoxious, opiniated, pedantic, boorish and partisan, and discover that in real life they are in fact very much worse than that”
I’ll see you there Peter!.
49 That’s funny, Casino, I was just thinking about what we both had in common - we’re both Tories, erm…
48. Next week Noddy Holder and voting patterns in the West Midlands.
52 Moi? Surely not.
Shadoodywatsit and credit ratings are amongst the things I know least about in the whole world. And CR’s hobby obviously.
I *can* converse fluently on Nazis/Stalin/the Roman Republic but don’t here, and what I don’t know about Bunny Girls …
All part of the rich tapestry that is the wonderful pb.com community. I’m off out - see you guys next week.
52/55 LOL! Can’t wait.
56. Yup. Good plan.
I’m off to get pissed chaps (no logging onto Betfair allowed in said state - warn me off if I come back)
Have a great evening!!
Ladbrokes currently a generous 14/1 Giuliani to be president and 9/2 for the nomination
30 Further to my reply - thought back to my teens and LP purchases. Definite precusors to progressive Rock:
- Iron Butterfly - “Heavy” 1966 (always assumed that was where Heavy Metal came from) In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida in 1968
- Love - late Arthur Lee, Love de Capo and Forever Changes 67
- Cream - Disreali Gears 67
- Moody Blues Days of Future Passed 67 & In search of the Lost Chord (played with bass turned up, treble down)
Think 68 & 69 I got lost down the byways of Flower Power - certainly I remember well everything on the soundtrack of Good Morning Vietnam and I owner a few (Stones, Who, Beatles)
-King Crimson - Court of the Crimson King 70
-Jethro Tull - Aqualung 71
Then it was schools out for ever and music has gone downhill ever since.
PtP of course remembers Billie Holiday’s version of Blue Moon but he is a bit older than me….
60 Blimey Ted, you’re old - I mean really old. I bet you remember the Beatles. My better half saw them live in Sheffield - still has the ticket stub, reckons it’s worth thousands.
Ladbrokes now go 4/6 on Hillary to win Nevada. Sounds like you face a nasty hit on this one Shadsy.
54
If you asked Noddy to do it I’m sure he would do as well as anyone else on this site. Clever man.
60 Billie Holliday, Ted? I remember Bessie Smith, when she was in pigtails.
Love always struck me as a curiosity. They flourished briefly and had only one successful album that I know of - Forever Changes - yet it features in many people’s top ten all time favorites.
I remember it well - idiosyncratic yet completely satisfying.
Excuse me while I go roll something up…..
50 - There’s a difference between a bank having to go cap in hand to the Bank of England because they are running out of money and no-one will lend them any, and an obscure credit rating agency possibly downgrading the ratings of a couple of banks.
It doesn’t feature as a story on the Guardian website, nor on the BBC website.
People aren’t going to know about this. It won’t have an effect.
I aim to be at the party again next Friday.
I am gonna try and pitch up….
Not sure if already posted but good news for McCain in South Carolina - he leads by 7% in 2 new polls (Fox and Reuters/CSpan/Zogby). See Real Clear Politics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
65 an obscure credit rating agency possibly downgrading the ratings of a couple of banks.
Obscure - I don’t think so, pre-eminent more like. Still, I just hope you’re right and it doesn’t prove to be newsworthy.
62. Maybe not - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby has Clinton only leading Nevada by 5% so could still be a toss-up. See Real Clear Politics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html
Hope to be at the NLC next Friday. I certainly enjoyed the last one - tho’ a bit hazy towards the end.
Credit rating agencies are constantly monitoring and adjusting the credit ratings of banks, up and down. This would only be an important story if they were downgraded to below investment grade.
Well so much for my shor lived bet/lay on Huckabee for SC even though I plumped for McCain to win it. It was great for about a few hours then disappeared.
Profit? About £7….next year Rodney….
As regards the credit ratings, it does matter, how much though its hard to tell because each of these institutions is different and could well just carry on without long term damage. Too early to tell what it could mean.
To give a dramatic example of how it can matter, the ratings could have finally sank NR during this current crisis if the agencies dropped its ratings, one of the reasons why the Treasury guarantees started to extend to commercial lenders. NR had previously raised a lot of money through an investment vehicle. The terms included teh clause to allow its investors could call their money back immediately if NR’s credit rating dropped. the sum was billions. With the government backing NR to the hilt the agencies had less reason to cut the ratings.
P Hain won’t have liked hearing that Channel 4 were covering the loss by DWP and Capita of 18 mailbags of personnal details. They had been found on an Exeter roundabout. The finder also said that it wasn’t the first time he had found DWP papers there. Whole thing seems very fishy. Will it shift the odds on Hain’s early departure?
50. At the same time as this, the Standard Life share price is heading south at an alarming rate. Anybody seen a reason apart from their “Education Secretary” up of the attempted takeover of Resolution plc?
72 What word on next May. And more importantly doesn’t the Gatland call look better and better and better………..
Government of all the talentless…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7197045.stm
More data going missing, Gorgon is away, and leaks spring from nowhere.
77. What a joke. Can’t we exercise a put option on this shower of incompetents?
Mike. Any signs of a ComRes poll? Seems overdue.
Combined story of ‘missing’ details.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/7197048.stm
Perhsps the MP for Broxtowe ought to offer up his services as IT Czar.
74 Will it shift the odds on Hain’s early departure?
Well, yes, in a roundabout sort of way.
Oi, it’s the way I tell ‘em!
In one of the earlier threads on the US election, I was having a small disagreement with someone who insisted that evangelicals were absolutely, totally, 100% in Mike Huckabee’s pocket - and that there was some distinction to be made between evangelicals and other Christian conservatives.
Lo, today what should turn up in my inbox but this analysis from Stuart Rothenberg, one of the most acknowledged independent commentators on US politics:
In Michigan, Romney won 34% of the votes of evangelicals to 29% for Huckabee and 23% for McCain. In Iowa, Huckabee won the most votes from evangelicals, but even here he only won 46%; with Romney, McCain and Thompson splitting the remaining 54% almost equally.
Evangelicals comprised 34% of the Michigan electorate (presumably the MI GOP electorate, though he doesn’t say so) and 60% of the Iowa electorate (24% in NH).
Rothenberg’s comment:
“It also suggests that while evangelicals hold to uniting theological themes, there is limited uniformity in how evangelicals apply their faith to politics and choosing a particular candidate.”
Totally OT, Matt Skelton one of the biggest bruisers in Briotish boxing fights for a Heavyweight world title tomorrow against Ruslan Chagev in Germany.
Skelton is awful to watch and yet strangely compelling…..might be worth a view.
82. Its one of the sad pieces if ignorance Adam that many, espcially this side of the Atlantic see the Christian based conservative right as a singular bloc.
They never were completely and never will be though clearly Huic has big appeal in that pool. If Huck had them all in his pocket then Fred Thompson’s comparatively decent polling in SC just woudlnt happen because’s hes exchanging heavily with Huckabee.
It also proves they vote on politics as well as religion.
Now it’s Bet365’s turn to offer 11/10 against Hillary winning Nevada.
84. Yes - and believe it or not, they’re not all Republican either - At least three of them vote Democrat!
Someone also questioned whether the Bill Clinton bust-up with the reporter was actually national given that it was only an ABC affiliate who had been running with it. Well, how’s the New York Times do you for national?:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/18/us/politics/18bill.html?nl=pol&emc=pol
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7197045.stm
Stolen lap top from Navy - details of 600,000 people.
ID cards? Not a chance!
One thing about the US election is how little on this forum we’ve discussed the policies of each of the candidates.
Clearly this hasnt done many fo us any harm in betting terms but perhaps our releative ignorance means we focus on wider issues, like the feel of the candidates. I remember months ago for example menioning the usefulness of ‘folksy’ appeal.
Whilst doing the dishes and thinking over Adam’s comments on the Evangelicals suggesting they are not a monolith a idea came into my head, ‘The Good Man’ concept.
This may be of particular relevance to the GOP race. If you think of Mr Average primary voter you can perhaps easily imagine them saying Mr A is ‘good man’ and I’m just wondering if that general feeling strongly influences where the people vote.
85. Thanks for tip. Just opened an account.
Sorry won’t be at the party. Commitments in Cheltenham make it impossible.
O/T I was sad to hear of chess grandmaster Bobby Fischer’s death today. At his peak IMO he was at his greatest and most brilliant the World has ever seen.
89. I think that - or at least a variant of it - is of massive importance in the Presidential race.
One of the reasons many have argued that George W. Bush beat Al Gore (and Kerry) was because voters saw Bush as someone they’d much rather have a beer with - not necessarily a “good man” but “one of us”. The policy wonkish, wooden Democrats running against Bush may well have been academically better qualified to be President, but they weren’t perceived as likeable or “normal”.
It’s probably the reason, if she does fail, Hillary Clinton will not win the Dem nomination. It may also be why Huckabee, if he does succeed, will win the Republican nomination. I wouldn’t describe Romney, McCain, Thompson or Giuliani as likeable (and Ron Paul isn’t even from the same species). Romney could have done likeable if he hadn’t made so many gaffes that show him as opportunistic.
But getting back to the “good man” point, the problem (as I see it) with US politics is that religion has become the only “pass” to geting voters to even consider whether someone is a good man or woman: an athiest or agnostic, regardless of their public or community work, sacrifice or achievements won’t even get a hearing nowadays - especially in the GOP, but to an extent among Democrats too.
91 Very sad, Goupillon.
He popularised the game enormously in the West and played with an appealing freshness and vigor. He might have gone down as one of the all-time great world champions but unfortunately he withdrew from the international chess scene after his crushing victory over Spassky and never fulfilled all the promise he showed on his rise to the top.
Latest SC poll shows Huckabee tied with McCain. That primary is really not a contest anyone should want to bet on…
Good Golly, go away for a couple of hours and the Government manages to lose 600,000 details in one case and dump personal details in another… no wonder Macavity’s in China.
64 - PtP - played Revelation (like In-Gadda-Da_Vidda a 19 mins track on one side of the album) from Love de Capo when I heard of Arthur Lee’s death in late 2006 in thanks for the memory (Love was the first album I bought by myself) It has worn surprisingly well - echoes of the Byrds, with other Californian Rock influences mixed with the blues, jazz - including a very good “Every body needs somebody to love” in the mix. Hadn’t listened to it since the late 60’s.
94. Straight from Fred to Huck.
Maybe I should have let that bet on Huck run a bit….still I think McCain will squeeze through as his falls are not necessarily matched by others gains.
I’m guessing the edges of McCains support is soft in terms of commital but dont seem to be going anywhere else. As long as he gets them out he should be ok.
94. Well, either of them really: NV cos they’ve never had a caucus before so how do you model a forecast (and the polls indicate that by giving a 4.5% margin of error!).
The interesting thing for me about SC, other than who wins, is what independents do - by which I mean which party’s primary they opt to vote in. If the trends favour the Democrats even in this reddest of the red states (though arguably becoming less so) then I think whoever wins the GOP primary is going to struggle in November.
In normal times I’d say the largest number of independents would vote in the Republican primary and that should seal it for McCain; but I wonder how many independents are black or young-non military-white who seem (on the basis of Iowa and NH) to be surging towards Obama. If that trend maintains, McCain could lose simply because Republicans will go for Huckabee (and in such circumstances, I think Romney will do better than he’s polling too).
Ok, Ive had a scare in my mind on McCain and a go lay some off my some more of my bets on his nomination.
Government less likely to nationalise NR…going to put more financial assistance forward to whoever buys it out.
The CoffeeHouse reports two stories that will not be in the papers; one, injuncted, is about a famous newscaster and his lovechild by another journalist and more interestingly there is one covered by a D Notice. Wonder what it is?
What about the injunction covering a famous tv personality and a tabloid newspaper. It’s certainly prompted much speculation about the person involved. For obvious reasons, can’t elaborate.
There’s a piece I’ve written for the Guardian on the primaries which is now up on their website -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/story/0,,2243235,00.html
101- you might not be able to elaborate, but Guido can
102 Nice piece, Mike.
You were certainly correct to dumb it down for Guardian Readers.
(Perhaps Ave It should do a similar piece for The Sun?)
100 and 101 Guido has the details on the journalists.
http://www.order-order.com/
By my calculation it happened 4 years ago.
104 I though Ave It was from the Sun?
AVE IT SIMPLE PUNTERS GUIDE*
—————————
Ave it GOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Party of the free world!
GOP gain New York!
* No inducement to gamble is implied or intended
Is anyone else getting a bad feeling about McCain or am I alone?
108 - What sort of bad feeling? My only thoughts are that he more than anyone else in the race needs a hell of a veep pick!
Money and power must be the two greatest aphrodisiacs, how else would the likes of Kissinger, and Prescott have pulled? When will this make GM TV?
108 Yokel
I am not as confident of McCain getting SC as I was a couple of days ago but think he will probably scrape home.
Betting wise I opposed Huckabee on the assumption that Thompson would cut into his vote. Small amount so I am letting it run.
Romney’s vote in SC might not be as low as I was expecting either. Though not sure how that effects the others.
109. I think he is the logical man for the GOP to have a chance in November but his support seems a bit soft. He consistently hangs around at just under 30% and its a very vulnerable number.
If you put a gun to my head I think he’ll hang on in SC but McCain doesnt give you warm feelings of security. He;s a rollercoaster bet.
I plan to be there next Friday night. Adrian
112 - Indeed, but I still think that he needs to have two things one a convincing answer to the inevitable age issue, and two a highly credible veep!
Well, one can hardly blame Andy Marr, can one? I’d fancy Alice Miles if I were married to Jackie Ashley too - she has the look of someone who chews used tyres in her spare time.
Pretty much agree with Yokel on SC. What about the expectations game? All the NV attention seems to on the Democrats, and now Hillary is expected to win it’ll be a blow if she doesn’t; conversely if she wins convincingly it may help her pull close in SC. Romney is seen as overwhelming in NV and if so, with two running, should gai ground in SC - at a guess that’ll come from McCain as another serious sort of candidate, rather than Huckabee. If God tells you to vote for someone, you don’t waver just because of a result in Nevada.
105/115: yawn - more Guido froth. Does anyone here care? I doubt if he’s right that the general public would care either.
116 - I don’t particularly care about anyone doing it, and neither I imagine do most members of the public. But Guido has got a point when he says that had these been soap stars or a film actors, the press would have been all over it. I suppose there really is honour among thieves.
82. I was the one that argued with you on here. My point was that there was a lazy error by polling companies to have “Evangelicals and born again Christians” as one group. The figures from this group are then used in newspaper columns with the tag “Evangelical”. The term “evangelical” has various definitions according to religious sources, but in common US usage among the religious means those with a literal belief in the Biblical account of the universe, including the Garden of Eden, Noah’s Flood, Sodom & Gomorrah, the Parting of the Red Sea, and the Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Most of these tend to believe that the Second Coming will happen any day now, and the bulk of them are Southern Baptists. They are absolutely certain that abortion is murder, that homosexuality is a corruption of God’s work and that evolution is spread by the lies of Satan.
The second group is born-again Christians. This is anyone from any denomination that considers themselves to have a personal relationship with Jesus Christ. The vast bulk of evangelicals would also consider themselves born-agains, but people like Barack Obama would also class themselves as one. It can include people who are Southern Baptists, Episcopalians, Catholics, of the various black churches, etc etc… This group’s political views are as diverse as the rest of the country.
Now, of course, when a pollster asks “Are you an evangelical or a born-again Christian?”, the interviewee replies “yes” if they are of either group. Surprise, surprise then, when the results show a huge diversity of political opinion, and only a minority support Huckabee. It is my strong belief that if pollsters actually understood religious differences and categories and asked those questions separately, they would find a far greater % of “evangelicals” (in the narrow sense) would support Huckabee. I’d estimate 70% plus.
Sadly I will be away for the next week, so will be unlikely to post and definitely absent on Friday. My loss, and I hope the event is as enjoyable as last year’s.
BTW, I will be there next Friday.
105. 115. I think Guido’s “this would be all over the papers if it were a soap story” isn’t quite fair. Most tabloids work on an unwritten rule that they only go after celebrity’s who have already courted publicity on their personal life. I know a media type who gave me the example of Pierce Brosnan (a big Hollywood star during his time as James Bond) who would deliberately avoid talking about his personal life in interviews. True to form, when his wife was struggling with cancer it wasn’t covered. I once saw an interview with Dominic Monaghan (of Lord of the Rings and LOST fame) where he refused to answer a question about someone in Hollywood he was dating. According to female friends, he doesn’t appear in tabloid magazines like the rest of the LOST cast.
119 Sorry you can’t make it, Tpfkar. I promise a full report, and photos, regardless of D notices or the like.
Have a good week.
97. I am sceptical if the Independents McCain and Obama are attracting are in the same crowd. I imagine “Reagan Democrats” are much more likely to go to McCain because they support aggressive foreign policy, where Obama will be picking up otherwise right-leaning anti-war folks. I don’t think there are many people in the US ambivalent about the Iraq war - people I meet tend to be on one side or the other on quite a fundamental level. Obama’s and McCain’s positions on the war are so centre stage I don’t think many from one side of the fence on this issue will cross based on other concerns.
How Ms Miles could look at Marr is beyond comprehension. And there I was thinking the earlier cartoon Guido ran of Marr on Brown had some link to the truth.
Re 14, Ted, “O/T but I see it’s now reported that it was the first officer that actually landed the BA flight yesterday - John Coward - see the headlines now Coward Hero or is that Hero Coward”
Well I have “Coward the Hero!” on my blog
119. Ah yes, apologies for forgetting and being too lazy to search, Socrates!
I totally agree with you about the laziness of commentators in distinguishing between the two - indeed Rothenberg says this in his analysis of the evangelical - as distinct from “religious right” vote:
“Eight years ago, the exit poll asked primary voters if they were part of the “religious right.” First of all, what does “religious right” even mean? Second, surely there were evangelicals in 2000 who did not consider themselves part of the “religious right,” but we don’t know how many. Unfortunately, that’s the only vaguely similar question we have in analyzing potential evangelical percentages in upcoming Republican primaries.
“In 2000, one-third of the Republican primary voters in South Carolina said they were part of the “religious right,” a slightly smaller percentage than similar voters in Iowa that year (37%). If that trend still exists today, it would poke a hole in the theory that South Carolina is full of uber-conservative evangelicals ready to deliver the state for Huckabee.”
I’m just posting that so you can see that the figures I quoted earlier did explicitly mean evangelicals as opposed to the broader christian conservative/born-again movement.
123. Well, possibly Socrates - in SC anyway. But of course one of the reasons McCain lost Michigan to Romney was that few independents turned out - and left to just the GOP hardcore, McCain usually gets hammered.
Agree with you about Iraq except to say that I think there are quite a few anti-Iraq independents who are still attracted to McCain. I think the anti-Iraq sentiment is very much an anti-neoCon, anti-Bush constituency; McCain isn’t a neoCon even though he (rightly, in my view) backed - indeed argued for - the surge; and hence to an extent he’s teflon-coated on that.
So Andy Marr has fathered a bastard? Dear oh dear!
126. Does it explicitly mean “evangelicals” though? The occasions where I have actually tracked down data sources, it seems like commentators moved from the ‘general’ “Christian Right” tag which they got criticised over (and I agree, is an appalingly vague phrase) to the ’specific’ “Evangelicals and born-again Christians”. The problem with this is that it is just as vague. While there are plenty of people who (back then) would have described themselves as “Christian Right” who weren’t evangelical or born-again, there are also plenty of people who would describe themselves as “born-again” who aren’t evangelical or even right-wing. They have succeeded in replacing one vague term with another.
It’s all complicated by the various definitions of “evangelical” also. Some pollsters note you down as evangelical if you say that Christianity is “very important” to your life. Even if we use those who say “Yes” to the question “Do you believe the Bible is the literal word of God” (around 55% of the US population) I’m betting a good chunk of those either don’t register or don’t really understand the term “literal” properly. My best guess to the size of the *truly* literal block is those that think Jesus could return any week now (about 20% nationwide and a bit higher in the South). I really doubt more than 20% of these people will go for anyone but Huckabee. It’s possible they might stay home, believing that you should leave to Caesar what is Caesars, but if they’re going to vote they’re going with the guy from Arkansas.
New SC poll by SurveyUSA is modelling turnout in the GOP primary as 83% Republican, 10% Independent, 3% Democrat.
Poll shows McCain 4% ahead of Huckabee: 31/27, with Romney on 17% and Thompson on 16%.
To contradict my post 127, McCain is apparently leading the Republican vote - but by only 2%; but he’s dominating the independent vote 47/16. McCain also does better among women than men; Thompson does very much better among men than women - if men were the only electorate there would be a statistical three-way tie for the lead.
Bizarrely, Thompson is winning by a landlside (with Romney second) the Hispanic vote (which is only 1% of the modeled electorate), despite both of them having harsh anti-immigration stances.
127. It’s my opinion that McCain lost Michigan to some extent because of Romney’s father’s good name, and an even greater extent because Romney promised to bail out the car industry. Detroit has been in recession for so long now that people are very, very angry about it and don’t see why they shouldn’t get the same sort of hand-out Iowan farmers get. This was the main reason why Michigan insisted on moving its primary forward, even at the cost of half its delegates. They have just had their economic situation ignored while the rest of the country boomed.
It’s also a good reason why Britain shouldn’t join the Euro!
129. Yes, he says he’s specifically referring to evangelicals - you can read the full article here:
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/01/romneys-michigan-showing-adds.html
133. Well, being flip they shouldn’t produce shite, high cost, gas-guzzling cars, should they? Agree about Euro and that biofuel should lose (much of) it’s subsidy.
Meant 127, not 133!
Re 36, Peter the Punter “I think it’s healthy to meet those who, through the Site, you may have come to consider obnoxious, opiniated, pedantic, boorish and partisan, and discover that in real life they are in fact very much worse than that.”
Have a good party! Yours is my favourite banter. Beats newsnight, fivelive, the papers… in fact any other outlet. A very good site indeed.
130. Southern Hispanics voting in the GOP primary - they’re probably Cubans aren’t they? What’s Thompson’s line on Castro?
132. I’d have to see the link to the actual poll he’s referring to and the actual question asked to be convinced I’m afraid.
133. I absolutely agree. What’s actually needed is improvements to Detroit’s terrible transport infrastructure to attract businesses and the educated to the area, and an investment in human capital. But given the choice between nothing being done (most Republicans inc. McCain) and a hand-out Romney, I’m not surprised what they chose.
136 On Mike’s behalf, and all the posters here, Sparky, may I say thank you very much indeed for your kind remarks.
This is the most accurate summary of the GOP’s recent development’s I’ve seen, and is very close to my own views. I consider myself a centrist in politics I respect, even if I disagree, the views of all three main parties in the UK. Coming to the US and paying close attention to politics here, I find it very unusual being a position that is so far or one side it is worthy of the most close-minded partisan, but I really believe it is utterly reasonable and even-handed to have complete contempt for the current Republican Party:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article3207017.ece
137: Thompson is unenthusiastic about Castro. In fact he apparently wants to kill him. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2437799&mesg_id=2437799
Actually, on closer study, Thompson is merely saying he wants to ensure he doesn’t stay in power, and would boycott Cuba under Raul Castro - the ‘kill him’ stuff is spin in the blog and not what he said.
Here’s a handy overview of what they’ve all said to Spanish-speaking voters:
http://www.ontheissues.org/2007_Univision_GOP.htm
Re 140, Nick Palmer, “Thompson is unenthusiastic about Castro. In fact he apparently wants to kill him.”
Hmm, are you sure unenthusiastic isn’t overstating it a bit?
138 My God, I don’t want to come over all Georgie and “second coming”-like, but, Peter, it’s definitely an honour to be addressed by you. I do tend to search to see what you’ve had to say, so it’s fantastic to hear from you directly.
PB is a superb site and I wish you and all the contributors all the best. My first port of call.
PS thanks for the stand out 20s for pres McCain which you flagged up. I don’t normally bet, but I’ve now got that one and it does seem to have some legs. I felt your pain in NH.
Re 141, Nick Palmer, I have to say i think the whole Cuba Castro/USA thing is an accidental conspiracy got up by both sides. It is not like what went before Castro was covered in glory, and it is not like Castro originally was anti American. They just settled into a rut.
130. That SurveyUSA South Carolina poll has Giuliani on 2%!
I know he’s ignored all these initial states but it seems extraordinary to me that someone purporting to be a leading national candidate can score so low.
His actual results so far are:
Iowa - 3.5%
New Hampshire - 8.5%
Michigan - 2.8%
And now he’s on course for another miniscule result in South Carolina.
That’s 4 states in very different areas of the USA with very different demographics - how can he score so low in all of them and be a credible candidate? I just don’t get it.
Re 143, Sparky “I felt your pain in NH.”
Unless you lost over a grand, I doubt you did, but all us gamblers know the feeling! (I only bet pin money for a laugh!)
143 but, Peter, it’s definitely an honour to be addressed by you. I do tend to search to see what you’ve had to say, so it’s fantastic to hear from you directly.
Well one thing’s for sure PtP, you’ll never get that red hat on your head again after reading that!
146 Yeah, that was glib - I’m sorry - I lost nothing… but it was great drama from an outsider’s point of view.
147 I’ve no intention of going to Cheltenham - but if I am on a course, and see a man in a red hat I will of course ask if he is the messiah
148 Good to have you on board Sparky, welcome!
144. I think Castro and numerous US Presidents deliberately demonise each other to raise public support at home.
150 Probably somewhat too late for that in Fidel’s case
148 - He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty boy!
139 Socrates - I couldn’t understand your post as the first and last sentences seemed to be in complete contradiction to one another or did I miss something?
143 LOL! You embarrass me, Sparky…
…but I can cope with it. 
Please don’t sympathise unduly with my NH losses. If a man can’t lose, he shouldn’t bet. In any case, I’d had a good long winning run, including a £800 win on Iowa, and I’ve high hopes of finishing up on the US elections by the time they’ve finished.
I can see I’m going to have to wear this red hat hat for the Party! Normally it only comes out for the Gold Cup and other Red Letter days, but I guess the PB Party qualifies.
Perhaps we can arrange a photo as evidence it exists.
Atb
152
Classic!
153. Here it is with more clarification and without the typos:
This is the most accurate summary of the GOP’s recent development’s I’ve seen and is very close to my own views:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article3207017.ece
I consider myself a centrist in politics - I respect, even if I disagree with, the views of all three main parties in the UK. But coming to the US and paying close attention to American politics, I find myself wholly supportive of one side (the Democrats). I find it very unusual being so far from the centre (as I am used to the extremes being the place of the most close-minded partisans). However, despite thoroughly re-examining my views, I really believe it is utterly reasonable and even-handed in analysis to have complete contempt for the current Republican Party.
Is that clear?
Sounds pretty sensible - if you took Tory policies on taxes/guns/gay rights/abortion/etc they’d wildly to the left of the Republicans, and often of the Democrats too.
Increasingly like the Tories in the 90s:
“Miliband urges Labour enthusiasm: Foreign Secretary David Miliband warns Labour it needs to show it is excited by winning the next election.”
The picture the BBC uses on its ‘Politics’ page is awful. Is Auntie’s institutional culture moving to the LibDems. They seem to be interviewing Clegg a lot and taking pot shots at Labour.
105. My reaction to those names is “so what?” so why has it been injuncted?
158. Didn’t you know that Miliband has a trick up his sleave? Once all 27 EU states ratify the Reform Treaty, each EU state’s eligible electorate to vote in each other’s national elections will increase by at least 2-3%, enough to swimg the 2009/2010 General Election Labour’s way. The Labour Party is working very hard on trying to intgrate Europeans into our political system. We” be voted into Europe by EU citizens living in the UK. No turning back now. Too late.