My first-hand experience of the power of Hillary
January 19th, 2008
What happened when the First Lady snapped at the President
Through the University’s New York director, John McCaffrey, the President had agreed to host a lecture at the White House by Professor Stephen Hawking and we were planing to use the event to get closer to Cambridge’s top US fundraising prospects - which was my concern.
On the day before we got a call from the White House saying that the President and First Lady would be delighted to offer us coffee in the Oval Office at 11am. A group of six of us turned up at the appointed time and went directly into the room from the pathway.
Bill was everything people say about him - immediately engaging and welcoming. He then got talking to Stephen Hawking who, of course, has to communicate through an electronic box with him thumbing in instructions to a complex input device. This means that there is always a time-lag between a question being asked and his response.
After a few minutes of conversation in this manner Bill called across the room to his wife - “Hey how are we going to manage the lecture tomorrow night?”.
Hillary’s response was short, sharp and sounded like a put down - “You don’t need to know about that now”.
Bill said simply “OK - fine” and he continued talking to Stephen Hawking.
Ever since I have wondered about that answer by the First Lady. Was it being done for our benefit because this was in the middle of the Lewinsky affair or was she always like that?
I don’t know but my abiding memory is of an amazingly powerful woman. The White House communications team got what they wanted from our visit - the front page of the next day’s USAToday was dominated by a picture of Bill, Hillary and Professor Hawking.
Mike Smithson
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So you’re saying that a vote for Hillary might be another four years of the last Clinton administration?
Is that good or bad?
Are you saying good powerful, as in commanding and gets what she wants to get done, done; or bad powerful, ie a bully.
re 2. I’ve reflected on that a lot since. I think it is the former - she gets what she want to be done.
3 - Mike, that’s what I’d hoped to hear.
Yay, first comment on the thread for ages!
A couple of comments I posted on the last thread as replies before I found out there was a new one!
“In Florida the only really useful figures are how the independents and cross party voting goes. Even then it might be because of the assymetric nature of penalties imposed so only a vague straw in the wind. In a swing state if a candidate looks to be getting a lot of independent and cross party support then they are the best pick for the nomination for their party.
79 - It may well be 16 years until Obama’s next chance. Given that presidents tend to be given the full eight years and that they swing from party to party it may well be 2024 and I don’t think he’ll wait that long. Of course if McCain is chosen he could beat Clinton and there may well be a chance for Obama in four years if McCain decides to be a one term president. “
I always remember an anecdote about Hillary at a dinner party when Bill was president.
The context is when Bill did his Rhodes scholarship, Hillary was still seeing another student, but eventually dumped him and stuck with Bill.
Someone asked Hillary what the dumped guy is doing now, and she replied he was a practicing lawyer. He asked where would she (Hillary) be now then if she had made a different choice and dumped Bill, and she said as matter as a fact, wife of the president.
Behind every powerful man, as they say.
I’ve only ever heard or read anecdotal evidence about the Billary relationship when they were in the White House, but Mike’s story helps continue to build a picture of a partnership in many ways dominated by Hillary’s grasp of leadership and determination.
I am sure the woman would make a very competant President. I worry about her divisiveness and the impact it will have on America, but I have more faith in her *competancy* that I do in Obama’s. That said, if you have the rhetoric and the likeability factor, you’re just as likely to be elected President than someone who appears competant (the backroom staff can deal with minor things like policy): you only need to recall Regan to realise that.
Will this hurt Obama? This has just appeared on RCP - ‘Obama surfaces in Rekzo’s federal corruption case.’
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/01/suntimes_dumps_story_on_obama.html
7 & 8 - it all goes to show that the charges levelled against her that she only got to where she is because she married Bill are not entirely fair.
Worrying news for McCain in SC. Hard to know though whether to go with a bet on the Huckster.
I had opened and closed a complete bet/lay on Huck in a number of hours earlier in the week for a massive profit of about £7 and am now tempted to walk away from the primary as a betting option even though in my bones I think McCain has stalled at just the worst moment possible in SC. It’s a tricky one for me having a big big prifit in McCain if he comes home for the nomination yet Im just in the process of laying off everything for a moree balanced all green position. Still, it makes me thoroughly miserable to do so as I like the guy and he’s the only one in the presidential races that I actually have feelings about beyond how much cash I can make.
The Democrats in Nevada are where my action has been and will stay open with Hillary being my bet since the middle of the week. If she wins, I will watch SC closely. Its not impossible she could cause all kinds of issues there for Obama.
Intrade now moved decisively in favour of Huckabee for South Carolina:
Huckabee 58, McCain 35.
McCain still favourite on Betfair but not for long.
Adam and Kieran on the last thread were talking about the legal and political issues around ’seating’ the Florida and Michagan delegations at the DNC in Denver. Both have made valid points about the legality/fairness of seating these delegations, and whether the decision (to be made by the DNC) would be subject to challenge in the Courts. This debate is interesting, but only applies if those delegates would mathematically ‘count’ (ie could overturn the majority decision by their inclusion)
For my part, I think fairness decrees that the Michigan delegation should not be seated, or Hillary profits from disregard of the rules, while Obama and Edwards would suffer. Florida could be seated without such obvious bias towards any candidate, but again there is an issue of whether the suspension of delegates at the time of the election *changed* the primary process.
However, fairness is not the issue here - the DNC is the supreme governing body in making this decision, and that decision would be made on politics more than fairness (ie is it sensible to undermine the Democratic parties of two large states by denying them a say? and ‘who do you want to win?’), with the candidates using their sway within the party to fight for the issue.
It is difficult to explain the different rules that apply at Conventions - all seem to suspend the parameters of decency, because in such a fast, compressed atmosphere, scrutiny only comes after the event, and ‘what happens at the convention, stays at the convention’ - politically and ethically.
The decision of the DNC *is* subject to the Courts - Florida is already suing I believe, and if the delegations were seated and Hillary overturned an Obama majority as a result, he could file a suit as well. However, this simply won’t happen. Implicitly, all the candidates know that winning the nomination through the courts would make them look like a bad loser, and could hurt them in the GE. Whatever happens, though hypothetically it could be challenged later in court, the DNC *will* make the final decision. The candidates will throw all hellfire to win at the DNC, but I would be astounded if they allowed it to go to court *after* (pre DNC court cases could decide it, but I doubt the courts would want to pre-empt the decision of the DNC - I think they are unlikely to rule on a provisional penalty from the Dem Party if they can help it.
Both on 1.8 on betfair.
FWIW I have read on one or two blogs that the weather in SC is bad and that this will help McCain ( through early/absentee voting)and hold back Huckabee. Also that Fred’s vote is holding up.
Still just anecdotal and possibly worth very little. Interesting night ahead perhaps.
re.15
Why is the bad weather going to help McCain?I thought that Huckabees voters are very dedicated.Bad weather did not helped McCain in Michigan.
15. Fred needs to hold up. He does have a block of vote that could go McCain but looking at the polls I;m guessing he has the most fluid interchange with Huckabee.
15 - how many absentee/early votes are there? Thompson’s vote should hold up. He’s been campaigning in South Carolina effectively since Iowa and Romney has done everything possible to hand off some of his vote to him.
OT. Labour Salford & Eccles selection result:
Hazel Blears MP 174 votes
Ian Stewart MP 79 votes
19 - Cheers for that Andrea - I posted a link to Iain Lindley’s blog the other day which asked what the chances were that Hazel Blears wouldn’t get re-selected. To be honest, I’m astounded that she did as well as that, given the recent nightmares over funding the BBC orchestra, and budget cuts from her department to the local council.
Any idea if Ian Stewart will be selected for another seat?
I read both BA038’s engines failed right above Gorgon Brown’s car.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/topstories/2008/01/18/gordon-brown-just-25ft-from-death-in-heathrow-crash-89520-20289514/
Fancy that. Both engines right above the PM’s car.
Huckabee will probably edge it (unfortunately). Agree with you that Thompson is going to do better than the polls suggest - he could well break 20%.
My projection is below.
http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2008/01/19/huckabee-leads-mccain-by-129/
20. Stewart tried for Worsley & Eccles South (where half of his seat goes) but lost to Barbara Keeley MP. Then he tried in Bolton South East where the sitting MP was standing down but he didn’t reach the shortlist. Now he tried against Blears (where the other half of his seat goes).
There’re a couple of oldish MPs in his area..I suppose he should hope in their retirement to try there, but I suppose it won’t be a sure thing as his previous failures in other seats don’t look as vote winners!
Has anybody found a live stream that will have results etc. the Nevada caucuses/S Carolina primary???
To answer my own Q, I think there will be a live stream of the Nevada caucuses starting here shortly : http://www.lasvegasnow.com/ (link near top of page).
In another selection news, Steve Barclay won the Tory North East Cambridgeshire selection (Malcolm Moss MP retiring).
So another failure for James Brokenshire (MP for Hornchurch) to find a seat
Only reinforces my view, that in the US voters mind, Hillary and Bill have merged into one, they aren’t voting for her, but, ‘Team Clinton’ she has the cutting edge, he has the charm!
Just reposting this post by Marcia on the previous thread - a very useful timetable for tonight:
Nevada Republican caucuses:
Begin at 9 am PT (5 pm GMT)
Straw vote begins at 9:15 - 9:45 am PT (5:15 - 5:45 pm GMT)
Precincts are asked to conclude at 10:00 am PT (6:00 pm GMT)
First results posted 10-10:30 am PT (6-6:30 pm GMT)
Results likely known by Nevada Republican Party by 12:30 PT (8:30 GMT)
Nevada Democratic caucuses:
Begin at 11:30 am PT (7:30 pm GMT).
Preference groups form at 12 pm PT (8:00 pm GMT)
Second alignment begins at 12:15 pm PT (8:15 pm GMT)
Results start coming into Nevada Democratic Party at 2 pm PT (10 pm GMT).
South Carolina Republican primary:
Polls open from 7 am to 7 pm ET. Close midnight GMT
Results of the Nevada GOP caucuses should be here I think, though it doesn’t show too much sign of anything at the moment:
http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/
Results of Nevada Dem caucuses will be here:
http://www.nvdems08.com/
I can’t find any official South Caroline results page but the results should be available via Fox here:
http://media.myfoxdc.com/YouDecide/race3.htm
10. Exactly. She is highly engaged politically - she put immense efforts in health care reform and the fact that it all failed is not the point - you learn from failure and she knows how hostile the insurance companies and political establishment can be to a reforming President. I worry however that she carries too much baggage and, rightly or wrongly, she puts off a lot of people. If Obama was to join her ticket as VP then I reckon they would be unbeatable.
South Carolina, obviously…
Mike’s anecdote explains why a favourite refrain among some Americans a few years back was
‘impeach President Clinton - and her husband’
20 O/T but the other week I only half caught the Cormac being slagged off by some Polish clerics. What did he say? From the reaction he must have been calling for the return of the Test Act or something
19 The Party machine v Solitary MP = Easy Blears win. The fun will the Prezza and Brown camps in Hull East much blood will be spilt on the carpet up North
30 Can’t see either being on the others ticket now. They despise each other
How would PBers price up McCain for the GOP nomination if he
a) scrapes home in SC
b) just loses in SC
33 - Cormac made some comments about how it was wonderful that we had plenty of Poles filling the pews in the UK, but a shame that Polish masses could be leading to a split in the Anglo-Welsh Church into its indigenous and Polish populations. It was considered unsensitive, and unneccessary, and he took some flak for it.
I think it underlines his complete naivity in the public arena. In the last month, he also managed to continue equivocation on the permission (not) required to practice the Extraordinary Rite (Latin Mass), and throw the book-launch party for the former Vatican Master of Ceremonies who was retired by the new Pope who takes a fairly dim view of Liberal Liturgical practices, which was demonstrated this week by celebrating Mass facing the altar, and not the congregation in the Sistine Chapel. I give him 18 months, tops. The Cardinal has also been accused of interfering to silence his critics, by visiting the Barclay Brothers, who own the Telegraph that publishes a blog that frequently attacks the Episcopal hierarchy in E&W. See Damien Thompson’s “Holy Smoke” blog in the Telegraph for details.
5/2-3/1 in both cases.
If he scrapes home in a highly divided field then thats a worry. If he loses teh owrry is he is nto bringing teh GOP base with him.
Ipso facto, he should drift but not so far goiven anything coudl happen on Super Tuesday if Guiliani collpases.
Ignore my typing by the way. Its not dyslexia or anything, I just dont check before posting….
36 How was it offensive what did he say then exactly. He seems fairly mild mannered albeit with a penchant for slips of the tongue. IIRC him using the word they rather than we in the context of electing Benedict shortly after. I doubt he cares if he upsets the big man anymore now. Why should he as things wind on
33. In Hull East Chris Leslie got the nomination of GMB union (not much competition as just 2 of the hopefuls were GMB members). Southcoates East ward branch has nominated Karl Turner (don’t know who got the BAME and female nomination). The other branches will make nominations soon.
38. I think I must be automatically correcting for it as I didn’t notice the typos until you pointed them out.
OK - just looking at the demgraphics of the two states in question, and the key counties in Nevada are Clark and to a lesser extent Washoe - no other counties really matter, because of the relative population densities.
In South Carolina, the key counties to watch are Richland and Lexington (in the middle, around Columbia), Greenville and Spartanburg in the North-West, York in the central North, and Charleston along the South East coast.
In the GOP race, Nevada is pretty sure to go for Romney, who is the only candidate in the state that has a 12% Mormon population. If he wins, he gets 34 delegates, which is about 10 more than SC, because SC lost half of theirs to GOP sanctions for bringing forward their primary. I doubt he can come better than third in SC - Huckabee and McCain to fight it out for first, Romney will try to hold off a challenge from Thompson for third. If he manages that, he is in a pretty good position (the only candidate to get delegates from every state).
OT, would do people make of the Great Leader’s idea to convert Nothern Rock’s massive loan to bonds?
39 Here’s the story http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/30/nchurch130.xml
You may be right - the only reason I can imagine he would worry is that he does care who takes over his job after he is asked to retire. He would like it to be Alan Roche or somebody - if he doesn’t want it to be an external paleoconservative, he should probably be careful not to annoy the Vatican any more than I suspect he already is.
42. You cant rule Romney out at all. If McCain fails to bring the base ith him, Guiliani implodes that leaves Mitt & Huck…I think Mitt woudl take that.
43 Not much. it effectively just acts as a subsidy to the purchasers who currently cant raise a smile let alone the 15-25bn needed to repay the treasury. All the risk stays with the taxpayer and all the upside passes to the new owner.
40 Well Prezza Jr got Snrs nomination so that sets up a battle royale. I suspect Brown could force Leslie through but given he coulgd get a seat for him somewhere it seems peculiarly pointless to have a bloody dust up with Prescotts in Hull. If things go seriously overboard you get a BG styl split possibly.
44 They’re unlikely to select a mate of his now anyway and even if they’re sore at him personally the Vatican would surely be cutting their own nose off if they then foist a hardline Filipino style prelate on a very different cultural outlook. Surely they wouldn’t be that crazy
43 in other words its much worse for the taxpayer than the 30bn credit facility that Darling refused Lloyds when they said they would buy it before the run on the bank
Its no coincidence that the heat went out of the nationalisation talk after the shareholders meeting during the week.
47. ” Prezza Jr got Snrs nomination”
what is Snrs?
with no results on CNN coming in - they have a big headline saying AP reports Romney wins
47 - Probably an Anglophone Westerner, but someone so conservative as to shock the English Church and the UK at large with its doctrinal absolutism - are they ‘crazy’ enough to do that? Absolutely.
sorry Romney wins Nevada according to AP
53. Fox are also predicting Romney win with 25.7% of the vote.
50 Abbreviation Senior i.e Father. Prezza the once Deputy PM his father
54. Is that all? Thats poor if thats Nevada.
54. yes, but I was talking about party branches official nominations in the selection contest in the early comment. And Prescott is big, but not large enough to be a party branch himself.
I can see them having a close fought contest without necceserly having a BG split.
Questions being asked as to whether Ron Paul can beat Huckabee to 2nd place in Nevada with McCain (from neighbouring Arizona) only managing 4th.
My prediction is 1. Romney, 2.Paul, 3. Huckabee, 4. McCain, 5. Thompson, 6. Giuliani, 7. Hunter
57 Yes I agree. I merely mention it as a slight possibility not a probability and only were things to really get out of hand in the contest.
Sometimes the influence of certain people is more powerful than a local branch itself. Prezza has ruled there for nearly forty years he knows exactly where and with whom the real decisions occur. That’s the way it is
56. Yes it was Nevada and I agree. Fox prediction had McCain running Romney fairly close (didn’t catch the figure). Anyway Fox have started showing the actual figures declared so we will know soon enough!
Is Nevada a winner takes all state?
Regarding Tyson’s comments of 8 years of Clinton followed by 8 of Obama. You need to realise a presidency win isn’t like a PM coming to office in the UK. Winning the white house is only the first step of making change. If Clinton scrapes home this year, any anti-incumbency vote could cause the Democrats to lose seats in the House and the Senate. The GOP could use genuine anti-Clinton feeling to get away with being utterly obstructionist and refuse to work with any Democrat proposal (as they did over the 90s healthcare reform to great success). The war would be back on with a re-energised Republican party and conservative voters coming home. Even if Obama then won in that climate, he wouldn’t have the mandate he could now - and the GOP would have had 8 years of bashing him to knock off that halo. We would be back to the old fashioned war of attrition, with nothing getting done and the result being the unsatisfactory status quo.
The alternative is Obama coming in now with a good sized win, and winning over several crucial congress seats, and thus a mandate for change. He would come across as bipartisan, and the Republicans would have to either try to work with his proposals or look utterly unwilling to compromise. People don’t realise that Clinton’s failed healthcare proposal wasn’t lost in Congress, it was lost in the minds of the US public, who were convinced by the conservative media machine it would make them worse off. Clinton doesn’t have the charisma needed to keep people on her side, unlike Obama.
And as for Nick’s point about Obama’s lack of experience and policy detail: read his last book. He details pretty much every one of his political views on each policy area, with well thought out arguments that consider the merits of every point on each side - sometimes incorporating right-wing points, sometimes pointing out the huge flaws in them. His work as a community organiser means he can also understand how everyday people think - a much better form of experience than being First Lady.
61 Not for either party, I don’t think, but I’m happy to be corrected if someone else is sure.
61. I don’t think so, though The Green Paper page isn’t the clearest: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/NV-R.phtml#0119
Im beginning to wonder of those estimated Romney numbers are off
I noticed that the decision to bring the Florida Democratic Vote forward, and thereby disqualify it for the Convention, was taken by the Florida state legislature. Now as it happens this was a bi-partisan decision, but what would the Democratic national Committee do if a partisan Republican legislature made such a move?
Seems to me the whole process is a bit of a farce, and will be heading inexorably and ultimately for the courts. If it did what effect could that have on the Presidential timetable itself?
By the way Guiliani could even go below Duncan Hunter if hes not careful.
59. yes, there’s always the possibility of things getting out of control.
The local branch nominations are important because if you don’t have any of them, you can’t go to the next stage and people getting nominations from branches covering more than half of the constituency directly go to the next round.
However, I suppose getting at least 1 branch nominations should be easily for Prezza Jr.
Then next stage is the shortlisting..here it can be fun…the GC (if controlled by one faction) can try and get rid of some potential dangerous contenders (unless they directly go on the shortlist because of the nominations) when voting on the shortlist.
67 - Hunter is utterly anti-immigration. He couldn’t beat Enoch Poewll in Nevada
66 - Decision to move Election Day was taken by state legislature to make Florida more prominent, and was supported by both parties. However, the state parties had the choice to keep their primaries later or to defy the national party and sacrifice their delegations in order to get noticed and save money. They piggyback ‘Election Day’ to ensure that the State of Florida pays for some of the costs - obeying the DNC would have forced the State Party to pay full whack, and sacrifice getting noticed.
See my post at 13 for likelihood of delays in decision. It could go to the courts, but it won’t - the Conventions will decide it.
69 - OIC. Thanks.
68 GC?
69 Any furher whispers on May reach your ears
71. GC is the CLP General Committee
72 Thanks. This looks th pick of the bunch any other popcorn fests on your radar
71 - Nothing at present, but will be back for St David’s day (undercover at a Plaid Cymru party!), so will offer a full update.
74 Unless you become a full Welsh speaker in one month I fear you cover may blown! Still if Gatland gets a good start they may spare you. I’m feeling that he might turn a few heads I think. Howley, Shaun Edwards, Dallaglio. Looks a good team on Paper..
Romney wins Nevada
Paul, McCain & Fred neck and neck for 2nd in Nevada at moment
75 - Every Welsh team looks good on paper - I just wish they looked consistently good when they took to the field! It would do wonders for my blood-pressure.
On topic - in a state where a disproportionate number of people work in the super-numerate casino industry, why is counting 50,000 votes taking so flippin’ long?
78. Pecinct by precinct so I assume each has to have its moment announcing. And there are a lot of precincts.
76/77 What results you guys looking at?
73. “any other popcorn fests on your radar ”
Next Labour seats to shortlist and then selection are Sheffield Central and Cumbernauld &co
This guy is apparently the front runner in Sheffield
http://www.paulblomfield.co.uk/
In Cumbernauld, the fav looks to be Greg McClymont (a Reid’s former speechwriter)
80 - That was a news flash on the BBC website ticker. But they now seem to have withdrawn it.
Romney is 1.02 on Betfair and 98.7 on Intrade so I guess he must of won.
Go to CSPAN then click on the AP results link.
Hillary has come in to 1.16 on Betfair… seems premature, or perhaps someone knows something I don’t
Oh Romney has won, but if he only scored the reported 25% to win thats poor.
Ok - 619 votes counted in Nevada, so extrapolations of placings, or indeed anything beyond Romney’s victory, is probably a little premature! I think it would be bad for McCain if he didn’t win some delegates - he really should have been aiming to come second here.
I guess there may be early leaks of entrance polls… Mind you, after NH I shall be cautious
Post 29 has the links. Romney streets ahead, almost everyone else tied.
BTW, if anyone is struggling to drop off at 10pm, switch on Radio 5 and you’ll get me debating the proposed ID register with Patrick Mercer.
85. All i can say if thats true is woohooo, I win!
And I believe a few others got on at odds against as well.
I’d be amazed if Romney won with less than 40% of the vote.
Yokel fair point on them all having to announce, but they’re taking much longer than Iowa to do it, aren’t they?
With 800 votes counted, Romney has 44% in Nevada.
Romney got 47% in the Nevada Entrance Poll.
Hilary has steadily risen on Intrade as well.She is 66.6 against 38 for Obama.
89. Blatant self promotion!
I hope you sent out an email to your constituents to let them know….
94: shocking, eh? Yes, I have. I’m sure they’ll be fascinated to hear it.
91. I’m amazed by the 25% figure some networks reported, semed suicidely low didnt it? Frankly it would be a pretty poor win in a state where he had it all in his favour. Thats why i went off to check for myself.
As for Hillary, if she wins yet again people completly underestimated her chances. I know that the bookies have their reps on here and obviously many unters will look in if not post but could the talk about the union endorsements for Obama etc post the Iowa success have completely skewed views?
We wait to see of course, I wont be counting my money yet on her making it home.
Per Fox - South Carolina - in a strong McCain area electronic voting machines not functioning so they had to bring out paper ballots but there’s a shortage of them!
95. You are having me on surely..
Fair play to you if you did. Why not, I say. At least no one can have a go at you spending lots of money on such things thanks to the zero cost of sending email.
97. Fix!
CNN is saying 45% for Romney, Paul and McCain fighting for 15% second place… LasVegasNow has similar figures.
Yeah, looks like this is being extrapolated from only 1000 or so votes.
Morris Dancer - even as a Labour voter I’d say I think it’s absolutely mad. The Government is proposing to become an insurer of mortgage bonds for the UK’s riskiest mainstream mortgage lender at just the time the credit rating agencies are downgrading bond insurers because mortgages keep going pop.
I think that the probability of the Republican candidate winning is about 55%, Cllinton 25% and Obama 20%. I think that Whoever vs. Obama would be worse for Whoever than Whoever vs. Cllinton, but Cllinton is much more likely to be selected than Obama. If Obama is selected, the worst thing he could do would be to choose Hilllary as his VP candidate.
Apparently 94% of Mormons voted for Romney
Have to wonder where he goes after this though. Without that factor, or home-town support as in Michigan, what’s his appeal? He failed miserably in Iowa/NH, despite massively outspending his opponents. There’s the antipathy a lot of evangelicals have for his religion. He has dreadful head-to-head polling against Obama/Clinton. I suppose it’s possible he could win Florida, but that’s a real 4 way contest and he’s joint 3rd. Seems unlikely.
Looking at the Exit Polls, looks like there’ll be
~47% Romney
~18% Paul
~11% McCain
~8% Thompson / Huckabee
~4% Giuliani
~1-2% Hunter
Given that gap I would be surprised if Paul doesn’t get second place… Also interesting is that Paul apparently has 65% of Independents, which must have hurt McCain.
am i right in saying that nevada has more delegates than south carolina?
I doubt very much Hillary can win in Nevada = 1) it is a caucus and everyone knows who voted for who 2)the court case means those strip workers get more votes 3)they are busing in the Obama supporters by the coach load 4)if you don’t vote for Obama then you are in serious trouble as everyone knows you went against the instructions of the union..
This caucus system is so undemocratic it reminds me of the old system in the U.K. is it Rotten Boroughs all over again
105 - Yes, Nevada has 34, South Carolina 24 (cut from 47 for bringing the SC primary forward)
i feel like i’m missing something here then, why has the focus been so much on SC? is it for purely historical/traditional reasons
98: thanks Yokel - basically try to give constituents as many opportunities as possible to hear me doing stuff - counters the general belief that MPs are lazy sods.
106 No, Rej4sl, it’s much more recent than that! The Unions tend not to do that kind of thing so much these days though.
104 Saw that one of Ron Paul’s main policies is to abolish tax on tips, which has to play well in Vegas
108 - First primary in ‘the South’, and therefore a key indicator of popularity/acceptability to the core Republican vote. If you can’t do well there, then you are unlikely to get a good GOP turnout in the General. At least, that is the conventional wisdom that Giuliani is trying to overcome.
108. I think SC has a bit of winner picking history but I’m not sure. I think also anyone following the GOP, Nevada was Romney territory from a bit out so SC is more interesting.
Warning for Nick Palmer - that programme on Radio 5 covers a broad range of issues - you’re likely to be asked about something bizarre - eg the first record you bought / your last holiday / your favourite football team etc before you actually start on the main subject.
102. I’m still amazed that anyone would think Clinton and Obama would share a ticket.
109. Not sure what I do with an email from Gerry Adams mind you….probably promoting his book, ‘I’m just a barman..and Millionaire’
114. It isnt Nolan is it?
That plank.
114. It isnt Nolan is it?
That plank.
Looks like Romney has won Nevada by 30%. As recently as January 13th, McCain led a Research 2000 Nevada poll by 7%.
This confirms the limited value of some of these polls.
Eeek. Thanks Mike! But I was sold it by a very tentative chap who said they’d only trouble me for 15 minutes or so - I got the impression Patrick Mercer is the main guest and I’m looking in to debate ID before they go on to football or whatever. But I’ll try to be suitably alert and not say things like “my favourite football team is South Carolina”…
Well with two votes in (literally, two, according to the Democrats’ vote site), Obama has 100% of the vote! Not even a landslide: a blow out! Wow, who would have called that?!
I’ll have a finger on the lay button just in case Hillary looks like losing….
The South Carolina data - quoted at realclearpolitics.com - borders on the bizarre.
Case 1: compare the final ARG poll with one from the same firm two days earlier. McCain down from 33 to 26? Huckabee up from 23 to 33? Thompson up from 13 to 21?
And I thought Zogby was random…
Case 2: the live Intrade figures favour a Huckabee win over McCain
by 70% to 20%. When the early exits I’ve heard reported have it too close to call, this seems wildly out of whack.
121 Yeah, but I blame the fact that Hilary didn’t get a single vote in the first district to call in New Hampshire as the reason for the polls being so far out. She obviously picked up on a late “Aw - bless!” sympathy vote. It could play the same way for Obama!
Looks like the Nevada result could for the first time in this campaign properly be called a “crushing” win by Romney. And, for any “Heroes” fans out there, is it just me - or when you see Mitt Romney, do you want to shout out in an excited Japanese voice
“FLYING MAN!!!!”
???
Big win for Romney, interesting implications for the general election, if Romney is not the candidate, they could lose Nevada, a state they really could do with keeping, as clearly the other candidates have little support even amongst Republicans, on the other hand, I struggle to see Romney beating Clinton or Obama. This result could prove bad news for Republicans all round.
123. The SC Intrade figures have now narrowed to a more rational 60 (Huck) 42 (McCain).
Clearly some US punters saw the anomaly and piled in!
I thought it was impressive when I saw that Obama is leading Cllinton by 67% to 35%. But then I noticed that it is out of a total of 8 votes.
NEVADA PRECICNT CAUCUSES
REPUBLICANS
Las Vegas Sun projecting Mitt Romney winner of GOP caucuses, based on 2% pcts reporting.
Romney 43%
McCain 15%
Huckabee 13%
DEMOCRATS
per NV Dem Party with 1% pcts reporting (all Clark & Washoe)
Obama 50%
Clinton 41%
Edwards 9%
124. I’m never going to be able to look at Romney the same way - he really is Nathan Petrelli (when he was bad!)
Hillary now has one vote, apparently - Obama has six, so now we can move towards landslide territory!!!
NEVADA
NV Dem Party website is updating returns constantly,
results from “Cow Counties” (everything other than Clark & Washoe) starting to trickle in. So far rurals going for Obama
Fox News entrance poll says Clinton leads 47% - 31% amongst women and 59% of voters are women BUT this does not include the casino sites.
Why the hell has Bill Clinton been allowed into the caucuses - I’m watching him on Fox now in one of the casino caucuses - he’s not, to my knowledge, a Nevada registered elector? Outrageous!
NEVADA DEMS
4% pcts reporting
Clinton 49%
Obama 44%
Edwards 7%
Kucinich 1%
Clinton now 58% in Clark (5% pcts reporting)
Obama now 58% in Washoe (6% pcts reporting)
132. Adam. Agreed. That sounds disgraceful.
132 - Don’t get yer knickers in a twist, caucuses are public meetings and ANYONE is allowed to observe PLUS candidates can send surrogates to speak on their behalf.
Cllllinton’s lead in one county is bigger than her lead in the whole state. If we had parliamentary election results counted and declared in this way, the fun of election night would be less but different.
NEVADA GOP
CLARK (24% pcts reporting)
Romney 57%
McCain 12%
Paul 11%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 7%
Giuliani 4%
WASHOE (
135. He’s not observing - nor is he making a presentation on his wife’s behalf - he’s working the crowds, talking to voters individually, thronged by media.
I appreciate these aren’t secret ballots but how is an elector supposed to make a reasoned choice with a former President and the candidate’s husband standing behind you, with Fox News cameras in your face?
In no way, shape or form can this be a credible democratic practice.
Bill Clinton is an idiot.
CNN says it’s 48% Obama, 46% Clinton (with 3% reporting)
Edwards isnt showing at all in NV so far.
138 - Romney’s sons all attended caucuses this morning. I’m fairly sure its legal, but as to whether it is ethical …
If you heard the radio report you’d hear that the Nevada causcuses sound like they could turn nasty any moment… I don’t think Hillary sending her husband and daughter to stir up the crowds exactly helps matters.
Also CNN is giving Romney at 57%, 12% McCain/Paul… that’s with 38% reporting.
Whoever said it was a disappointing victory for Romney obviously doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Hillary last matched at 1/4 on Intrade.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM
The CNN entrance poll has it among men C43 O39 E12 and among women C52 O30 E12
If accurate that has Clinton winning 48-34, but not sure if that includes these at large sites.
Nevada Dem Party results website getting cranky!
NEVADA DEMS (13% pcts reporting)
Clinton 48%
Obama 44%
Edwards 6%
Kucinch
Surely the whole point of caucuses is that voters are persuaded to change their minds.
the entrance polls do not include the casinos
Ok guys where are we here! Intrade is going heavily for Clinton?
Nevada dem results site collapsed!
Now looking at CNN!
From the details it looks like Paul’s strongest counties results haven’t come in, while McCain’s strongest have almost finished reporting.
Ron Paul is interesting: if he comes second, the American media might have to take his candidature seriously, at least for a week or so.
143. read the posts….
138 Surrogates attending caucuses is both legal AND ethical AND standard practice, happened all over Iowa for example.
Thing here is Bill Clinto doing his new Bull in a China Shop schtick. Which is playing badly with just about everyone (including me) EXCCEPT perhaps for the kind of base Democrats who really like Bill but are iffy on Hillary.
147. By their fellow Nevada residents - not with the candidate’s husband, his minders and a horde of reporters looming down on you!
for NEVADA DEMS, the state party website has most current numbers IF you can access it.
Site management - I’ve just slimmed down what’s on our home page to ease pressure on the server.
Anyone want to call Nevada yet?
157 - I imagine Fox are calling it for Bush.
re 157. Hillary by 5%
157: Romney?
NEVADA DEMS
22% pcts reporting:
Clinton 49%
Obama 45%
Edwards 5%
Clinton getting 55% in Clark
Obama getting 54% in Washoe, still ahead Cow Counties
Drudge appears slightly ahead, if they are correct -
22.46% Current Nevada Democratic Caucus Results:
CLINTON 49.21%
OBAMA 44.82%
EDWARDS 5.37%
Clinton was expected to win this easily so getting as close as that would be a big boost for Obama, no idea who benefits from which parts of the state though.
CNN are showing the caucus from Caesar’s Palace live on their website, it doesn’t sound very harmonious.
NEVADA DEMS
both Clark & Washoe have 21% pcts reporting
162 - Drudge is taking results from NV Dems webpage
All viable answers thank you very much.
31.48% Current Nevada Democratic Caucus Results:
CLINTON 50.17%
OBAMA 44.39%
EDWARDS 5.01%
What has happened to Edwards?
I did predict he wouldnt poll as well as the figure ssuggested and that that would help see Clinton home but that is not a good figure at all for John.
I;m guessing he will pick up a bit or am I missing something?
167 - The entrance poll had him at 12% - still pretty bad if he does get up to it. Is there a chance he pulls out before Feb 5th now? Esp. if he does badly in SC.
42.37% Current Nevada Democratic Caucus Results:
CLINTON 50.21%
OBAMA 44.52%
EDWARDS 4.95%
167 - Caucus system I presume, squeezed out by people switching to the two others.
All of you GIULIANI boosters out there, please take note that Rudy is YET AGAIN getting a pathetic percentage.
SEEM to remember folks arguing that Nevadans would really appreaciate Rudy’s mix of social libertarian + defense hawk.
Apparently not.
Edwards will have to stay in for SC - he was Senator for NC
I think ukpaul is mistaken that Clinton was expected to win easily - the polls have been jumping up and down and nobody here was sure at all, even yokel who has been predicting it. It’s a decent win. The CNN entrance poll data are interesting - Clinton well ahead among people interested in the top three issues (health care, Iraq (!) and one other that I forget) and among Democrats, whites and hispanics; Obama massively ahead among African-Americans, and ahead among independents. Not much variation by income group (negating the ‘blue collar Clinton vote’ theory) and union membership not too significant.
167, 168, 170
Yes Edwards got squeezed, that’s the whole point of the viability rule, to push the weak sisteres (in this context) to the wall.
Hope you guys study the rules just a wee bit BEFORE putting down yer bets!
I found Edwards surge shocking indeed I worried it would deny my pick for NV, Hillary, making it home and thought it a bit ropey.
The fall however from the polling figures has been very large even though I think its helped Clinton.
Looks like a narrow Clinton win…
re 173. Nick the RCP polling average had Hillary 19% ahead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_democratic_primary-261.html#polls
172 - And he was born there as well. But he’s not doing well there in the polls and this result isn’t going to help him.
I remember hearing a couple of US analysts speculating as to whether Edwards would drop out. The damning conclusion ran along the lines of…
“Why should he? He hasn’t got anything better to do.”