All change in my White House betting positions
January 20th, 2008
How trading can reduce your betting exposure
These are my current positions on Betfair’s Democratic nominee market and what, for me at least, is the best form of gambling, Spreadfair’s spread betting market. With the latter you can go in and out trading and, if you get it right, pocketing your profits even though the final outcomes might be nearly a year off.
On Betfair I have now switched so that I come out a winner whatever the outcome without any further risk. All the stake money I had to put up has now been withdrawn and the figures in the green show what I make depending on who gets it. I had had a bigger Obama position which has now been reversed so that I make most on Hillary.
To the right is my Spreadfair betting where 25 points are allocated to the eventual winner of the race in November and 10 points to the runner up. So if Hillary become president I make (25 minus my buy level of 11.9) multiplied by my stake of £40 a unit.
If she comes in second place through getting the nomination but then losing in November I stand to be down 1.9 (the difference between my buy level and 10 points) multiplied by £40. If she does not get the nomination I will lose 11.9 multiplied by £40.
I went into last night with biggish Obama and Huckabee positions which I closed down as the results were coming in and it became clear that Hillary was winning in Nevada and Huckabee was heading for the runner-up slot in South Carolina. Fortunately I got out of Obama at higher levels than I had bought at and I have made an overall profit of £343 on him.
I wasn’t so lucky with Huckabee and my betting on him has produced realised losses of £43.
My strong preference is for the Spreadfair approach not the least because I have a credit account and have not had to put up any money upfront to make my bets.
Mike Smithson
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Ladbrokes have at last settled bets on Hillary’s win in Nevada.
Don’t think Obama’s dead yet. He has the potential to win big in South Carolina with black voters, which will be the last major primary before Super Tuesday. Obama has also shown an ability to win delegates above his share of the vote, and is likely to win the smaller states on Super Tuesday also. This is important if you think the main figures after that day will be the number of states won, and the number of delegates to each candidate.
On the Republican side, I’ve been watching the US News channels all day (Fox, CNN and MSNBC), and Giuliani has been all over them. Remember, its not winning that gives a boost to a primary winner, but the extra coverage they get. The four way race in Florida might play to Giuliani’s advantage, as no one competitor is getting equal coverage to him.
Re last thread.
Peter Thorneycroft was in Thatcher’s cabinet as Chairman of the Party until 1981 aged 72.
The last parliamentary election to result in a tie was Ashton-under-Lyne in 1886. It appeared on the first count that the Conservative incumbent, Addison, had won by 8 votes, and this was announced from the balcony of the town hall. A riot errupted with calls for a recount, which duly took place. It then appeared the candidates were tied, with 3,049 votes each. There was no drawing of lots. The returning officer and Conservative Mayor of the town, James Walker, merely gave his “casting vote” to Addison, who was declared elected by 1 vote.
May be interesting for people to know the McCain has decided not to accept the $6m he was entitled to in match-funding from the FEC, because to do so would limit him to spending $49.9m over the whole primary season, and he is no longer as desperate for cash that the match-funding is needed.
Apparently, all candidates except Romney are feeling the squeeze financially, including Giuliani, Obama and Clinton. See http://tinyurl.com/2oetpl
Hat-tip to Drudge for the link - also an article on senior Dems trying to tell Bill to pipe down. I think the double act (Bill bad, Hillary good) is deliberate and working very well indeed, but it’s annoyed Teddy Kennedy (neutral at present).
OT Helen Grant has won Maidestone Con selection according to Iain Dale
http://www.helengrant.org/
1: Did they have explicit rules for this situation with the delegates, or is it just down to interpretation?
4: Thanks, Morus, very interesting. The financial position is another sign that Edwards is dead in the water. But the really startling one is Guiliani - serious cashflow trouble after enormous spending - with no apparent effect. I’d assumed he was lurking and waiting with a large pot of cash, but apparently he’s been spending it like crazy on, I guess, ads in Florida and following states.
5 Well, well, Andrea checking out Iain Dale’s blog - life’s never short of surprises.
7: yes, it’s ironic Giuliani has been near alone campaigning in Florida, which has resulted in his poll numbers plummeting. Guess the more they see of him, the less they like….
8. PfP, I checked it out because I was waiting for that selection and I thought he may have known and blogged about it sooner than others
5 - interesting! I shall watch with interest, as a Maidstone born lad.
11. According to ConHome, Conor Burns came second.
I start to feel sorry for James Brokenshire…where’s next for him?
It would be very interesting to know what proportion of the money and people who bet on these elections on betfair,etc read and are influenced by these threads.
Rochester & Strood or Croydon Central.
Post 14 refers to post 12.
Of course there may yet be more retirements to come so…
Presumably if Giuliani wins in Florida then he will suddenly find a lot more money.
Looking at today’s markets, two things strike me as surprising -
Firstly, I’ve been able to get 1.34/1 today with Betfair on Hillary winning the Presidency, compared with around evens with most bookies and compared with the price of 1.22 I took on 30 December, despite her subsequent successes. On this basis and contrary to my earlier intention, I’ve piled in.
Secondly, despite his abysmal showing and absence from the primaries to date, Giuliani is the clear second favourite GOP candidate to win the presidency, currently 13.5/1 with Betfair, despite being said to very short of campaign funds. This compares with the hapless and fast-disappearing Huck priced at 64-1 in the same market. Is this because it is reckoned that at least his name will be recognised when he does finally enter the race? Somewhat similar to the UK, where apparently around 80% are unable to name the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
16. It all depends on the GOP establishment. If they think Giuliani can compete with McCain they would prefer the New Yorker, and money would come flooding in. I suspect that if this doesn’t happen they would prefer to back the unreliable McCain rather than the unelectable Romney. There is a worry for the Republicans that they could not only lost, but also lose more than 60 Senate seats and lose their filibuster.
Pragmatism versus the apparently ideaologically pure is the thing the GOP faces.
The great irony is that McCain ideologically pretty straight republican.
18 That would indeed be remarkable, considering they currently hold only 49 of the 100 senate seats!
Peter from Putney. Very sorry to hear that you will not be at the party. I was looking forward to meeting you again and further badinage! My wife Katie, who was also hoping to see you again, is disappointed that you may not be there. I hope you may reconsider?
14 - Croydon Central sounds a good bet.
” Is this because it is reckoned that at least his name will be recognised when he does finally enter the race? Somewhat similar to the UK, where apparently around 80% are unable to name the Chancellor of the Exchequer.”
Makes sense for a wider election, but wouldn’t you expect the activist /enthusiast types that tend to vote in primaries to be far more knowledgeable?
Hope you all enjoy the party. Can’t make it this time. Next time perhaps?
24 - I shall also be maintaining my low profile and won’t be there.
Enjoy it, all of those who are going!
23 Andrew, I’m not so much referring to the primaries but to the election proper,
21 stjohn - Thanks for your kind words. Just about to have dinner, so I’ll respond later this evening or more likely tomorrow.
Branson & Brown to create Northern Wok
And it’s goodnight from me!
26: Ahh, gotcha. If that’s the case, you could perhaps also say a lot of McCain’s support is already coming from that angle
19. He would of been a pretty straight ideological Republican 15 years ago, but not any more. He fails on the following counts:
(1) Opposes all forms of torture
(2) Doesn’t support every kind of tax cut in every circumstance
(3) Thinks tax cuts mustn’t favour the rich over the middle class/poor
(4) Opposes big money influencing politics
(5) Accepts global warming is real (becoming less of an issue)
(6) Opposes banning all illegal immigrants from ever attaining US citizenship
(7) Believes in separation of church and state
28. Norman. Don’t know if you read Hugo Rifkind in yesterday’s Times. My week by Paul Burrell. He is apparently planning to branch out into royal kitchen utensils. “He was her rock. This is her wok.” It’s what the princess would have wanted.
30 - what has become of the GOP? (load collective sigh)
On Nevada, I am looking at how many delegates Clinton and Obama have won with a view to writing to Betfair tomorrow.
It still seems Obama is ahead in delegate terms.
33 - what were the terms of victory. Vote share surely?
34: It was something more along the lines of “Who will win the Nevada primary?”. In their general T&Cs, it says winners will be settled according to the appropriate governing body. Relevant section of rules n regs seems to be:
————————
Where the Market Information or Specific Sports Rules do not specify how and on what basis a market will be settled, markets will be settled on the official result of the relevant governing body regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result (except if an amendment is announced within 24 hours of the initial settlement of the relevant market in order to correct an error in reporting the result).
————————
Next section waffles about scenarios where no official governing body decision is available, but that’s not the case - it’s just not been decided yet.
35 - Point out that previous US elections have settled bets by delegates won and not the popular vote. If nothing else it’ll teach them to be more precise.
Re 34, James, “what were the terms of victory. Vote share surely?”
Were that the case George W Bush would never have been president.
Latest polls show Obama won 83% of black votes in Nevada, while Clinton only won among whites 53%. My advice is to back him now, even if only to lay him after South Carolina. The electorate there is about 50% black, and Southern blacks vote by ethnicity more than the rest of the country.
Re 35, and 36, Andrew and UKPaul, very useful.
It seems to me that it should have been on delegates, as that is how the race works.
O/T but I’ve just noticed that Nick Clegg is talking the usual nonsense on the NHS “if patients’ needs were not met they would be able to have private treatment paid for by the NHS”.
How exactly? Who decides if their needs aren’t being met? Do they get sight saving treatment for their eyes at £800 an injection monthly, or do they get the latest monoclonal antibody which might extend their survival in cancer at a cost of £20,000, and what happens if the budget is all spent before March?
When will politicians be brave enough to say that in the modern world the NHS cannot afford to do everything and will provide a basic level of service with everyone knowing what it will provide, and if you want extra you have to take out insurance.
33 Benedict - I posted for your benefit Betfair’s specific rules on this market at the end of yesterday’s final(?) thread, not that they were terribly enlightening.
As regards awaiting their reply to your query - all I would say is don’t hold your breath!
35. Surely the governing body won’t officially decide until the convention?
38 Quite right Socrates, IMHO Obama is a certainty in South Carolina and, for those comfortable with betting odds-on and despite Nick Palmer’s assertion to the contrary, VC’s odds of 2/7 (0.285/1) clear are attractive and compare very favourably with Betfair’s current price of 3/13 or 0.231/1, less commission.
27 stjohn - On reflection, I’ll email you tomorrow.
43. I think the race-stirring by the Clinton campaign has successfully kept Hispanics in their camp (an ethnic group traditionally distrustful of blacks) but turned away a once loyal African-American bloc in droves. I don’t think Democratic whites have been much effected, because left-leaning whites tend to look down on any ethnic voting, and have remained unaffected. The urban poor will continue to back Clinton, and the college educated (40% of the US populace, higher among Democrats) and rural will continue to support Obama.
30 (6) Opposes banning all illegal immigrants from ever attaining US citizenship
Of course, no illegal immigrant should ever be granted citizenship - except in extraneous circumstances.
However, that should not be an obstacle. The president does not have absolute veto on policy.
46. Romney taking a hammering on his Michigan bail out right now on Fox. Conservatives going after him for being anti-capitalist…
46. When the government (at all levels) has been turning a blind eye to illegal immigration for 15 years, and some 15m immigrants now prop up the unskilled economy in the Southwest what do you propose you do? Unless you have some route to citizenship (with a fine, and sending them to the back of the line) you are left with the choice of leaving a shadow illegal economy or spending billions tracking down FIFTEEN MILLION people. Questions of policy have to have some idea of the facts on the ground.
Re 41, Peter From Putney “As regards awaiting their reply to your query - all I would say is don’t hold your breath!”
Many thanks, well I have emailed them and if I do not get a pronto reply I will call, and they do not want that
That said I have just burnt my finger lighting a “jam jar pulse jet”! All good fun!
Mike - Re your Spreadfair bets - there’s some pretty nasty exposure there should Giuliani (who you appear to have completely given up on)edge out McCain for the GOP nomination and even worse should Obama also defeat Hillary for the Democrats.
Re 47, Socrates “46. Romney taking a hammering on his Michigan bail out right now on Fox. Conservatives going after him for being anti-capitalist…”
Well they will just have to back McCain then…
49 Well, whatever a jam jar pulse jet may be (it’s not rude is it?), I’m sure it’s neither the first nor the last time that you will get your fingers burnt.
51. I think they’re praying for a Giuliani comeback to be honest. If that doesn’t happen they just want one candidate to convincingly defeat Huckabee.
Peter. Look forward to hearing from you. I will email you first with my best contact details.
I think your logic on SC is spot on. Obama has to win SC otherwise it’s all over. I expect him to win but the pattern of these primaries suggests that Hillary could close the gap as the vote approaches, so I won’t be taking the 2/7.
I’ve been reflecting on Jan’s post on the previous thread. Fortune favours the brave etc. Jan is the shrewdest person to post on this site in my view. He seems to think McCain is close to over the line for the GOP nomination. I stand to win plenty if he gains the GOP nomination and PLENTY if he is next POTUS. So do I go in again? Yokel is another shrewdie, always cautioning us against McCain’s campaign prospects. What to do? Jan’s call could prove to be this year’s political betting steal.
As a refresher from 2007 , I suggested two betting steals. Neither identified by me but both heavily promoted by me. Caveman suggested back a uk GE in 2008 at 12/1 and I suggested this may prove to be the betting opportunity of the year. Then Jan advised us all to back McCain for POTUS at odds of 33/1 downwards. Odds of 20/1 were available far too long after McCain got back in the race and yours truly repeatedly flagged this up.
Sorry to brag but it is worth stating to balance the bad calls. I think I will hold fire on putting more money on McCain just for now. I was however concerned by that comment on the previous thread that 40 per cent of votes may already have been cast? Can anyone confirm this?
Re 52, Peter from Putney “49 Well, whatever a jam jar pulse jet may be (it’s not rude is it?),”
A pulse jet is what powered the V1 doodlebug. You can get a pulse jet effect with a glass jar with a metal lid, with a hole the right size for the jar and some fuel in the bottom. All good irresponsible fun.
My mistake was lighting it with a lighter for the first time when my first initial burn went like a rocket with consequent heat on finger in lighter.
“I’m sure it’s neither the first nor the last time that you will get your fingers burnt.”
No its not the first, and it ain’t the last! I like playing with things that go whiz bang pop!
54. My error. The GE bet refers to 2010. The braggart falls on his sword.
54 stjohn - I not only remember the two 2007 “steals” to which you refer, I backed them both also. In the second case, I acually achieved odds of 21-1 on a 2020 GE just prior to Brown bottling it, when 2007 appeared a certainty and posted that there was still some 14-1, which IIRC you took!
I’m also very big on McCain on both markets, but most of my potential gains will be lost if Hillary becomes President, as I’m also big on Obama.
57 This is contagious! - My reference to 2020 2nd line post 57 should read 2010.
55 You’re a bloody hooligan Bendict!
Re 59, Peter from Putney “55 You’re a bloody hooligan Bendict!”
Say that again and I’ll come round your house…
46: you sure about those extraneous (=irrelevant) circumstances, Al?
Mike - your clock is 5 minutes slow.
54 Yes, I think it’s McCain’s to lose now - not sure I’d want to invest more though at his current short odds.
The big unknown is Giuliani who has been almost deliberately invisible to date. His is a very big name, if he ever gets started and if he has the hunger for a real fight.
In the UK, I’d be really concerned about McCain’s age, but the consensus, at least on here, is that it’s not such a big deal - it could cost him however if, sorry I mean when, it turns dirty.
Peter. Yokel predicts the GOP establishment will make a last concerted effort to derail McCain, presumably in Florida? Who will they back and will it work? If the “anyone but McCain” group coalesce behind one candidate, Guiliani or Romney, then that candidate would be value to back in Florida. If they fail to coalesce behind one candidate then McCain will hopefully get home.
It’s ironic that McCain’s weak GOP support has been counter balanced by Huckabee and Thompson stealing votes from his real rivals for the nomination.
Wow - it’s slow on here tonight - just 63 posts in 6 hours.
So if there is anyone out there, I’ll just say goodnight.
64 I might have known you’d still be lurking! I meant to post today on that one hour period this morning when McCain was effectively home and dry in SC - despite the “excitement” on here, there was free money to be made.
For those who are interested, Giuliani announced his one page tax form today. Very simplified tax with only a few basic exemptions (charitable donations, housing etc). Notably he added one to get tax free health insurance - could be the first Republican to properly address this topic.
66. Retire gracefully!
I’ve just checked our local weather in fun-loving Putney on Yahoo! to discover that right now at 1.00am, it’s 12oC. So not only did we not get the promised Siberian conditions promised 10 days ago - that was really pathetic, there wasn’t even a frost here (and these so-called experts actually get paid) and now it’s Spring already (notice the addition of the final word for our American friends).
Mike or anyone please. Is it correct that 40 percent of Florida GOP votes have already been cast? This is important.
69. Speak for yourself. With wind chill it’s -22oC here!
70. That’s the figure that was used by a Fox commentator earlier, but it might have been in a “The Giuliani camp has defended his strategy by saying that 40% of Floridians have already cast their ballot…” context.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKL206385220080121?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true
Gordon Brown is now asking the IMF to act as an “early warning system” to prevent financial crises. I can’t help seeing this as further evidence of Brown’s political cloth ear. Apart from the symbolism of a Labour PM going to the IMF for help, the IMF has been warning about over-indebtedness for years.
Here’s one report of a warning they issued in September 2006 about the dangers that a slowdown in the US housing market would affect global growth - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5337770.stm
And a warning that the UK was entering a dangerous housing bubble in 2003 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2814809.stm
The warnings were there. The question is, why didn’t Gordon Brown heed them?
72. Socrates. Thanks for that. Did you know your name is an anagram of Coasters? And Aristotle can be rearranged to Totaliser? Plato of course defies any realignment. Other than Topal, a rather obsolete indigestion remedy.
74 - For lack of sleep (and a temperature) I can rustle you up -
Ploat
Transitive verb - to thrash (or beat) soundly - or - to pluck (as in chicken or other such animals).
Useless piece of research of the day - The London Beer Flood of 1814 (not quite as tragic as the Boston Molasses disaster - at which many came to a sticky end).
Both of those are truly true facts, as they say.
http://www.snopes.com/horrors/freakish/beer.asp
Slightly OT, people were talking the other day about McCains age and the risk of alienating older voters by attacking him on it.
The solution, of course, is to let surrogates do the attacking…
“[Chuck] Norris, an ardent supporter of Mike Huckabee, told reporters he believes serving as president accelerates the aging process 3-to-1.
“If John takes over the presidency at 72 and he ages 3-to-1, how old will he be in four years? Eighty-four years old — and can he handle that kind of pressure in that job?” Norris said, as Huckabee looked on.”
http://tinyurl.com/ywgauq
(If you’re not familiar with Chuck Norris, you can find out more about him here: http://www.chucknorrisfacts.com/ )
76: Last night when John McCain was making his victory speech he introduced his mother to the crowd. It made him seem young.
without wind chill we have hit (-25C) the last two days and with wind chill they said it was (-40C) yesterday morning - It seems all up in the air with U.S. primaries - with no one in the lead really - I wonder if we will get any resolution even after Tsunami Tuesday - that will be fun watching that - just don’t want a brokered convention for the Democrats - that will wrench them apart